1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:03,920 Speaker 1: This is taking stock with Pim Fox and Kathleen Hayes 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:09,959 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Til Marussof, the president of Brazil, could 3 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: be hours away from being forced out of office, at 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: least temporarily. Let's find out the details from Raymond. Call 5 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: it he is Bloomberg Bureau chief joining us from Brazilia 6 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: in Brazil. Raymond, thank you for joining us. Tell us 7 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: the latest. What is going on right now? The debate 8 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: in the Senate, the upper house of Brazil's Congress, started 9 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: this morning. It's a bit behind schedule. Only twelve of 10 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: the sixty three senators that signed up to speak have 11 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 1: done so so far, so we're expecting this actually to 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: go well into the night or the early morning hours 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: of Thursday. UM. The latest polls show that the opposition 14 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: will have the votes to have her stand a trial 15 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: and and and stepped down temporarily, meaning that the Vice President, 16 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: Michelle Tamer will will power takeover UM sometime on Thursday. 17 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: So what has been delmo recess biggest sin? Please explain 18 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: to our listeners. Is it a recession? Is it a 19 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: budget deficit that wants to get into control? Is it 20 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: a taint of scandal that's a good question. I mean, technically, 21 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: the charges against her in the Senate currently is for 22 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: having illegally used tapped into state banks UH to finance 23 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: a budget deficit. Now, obviously it goes much further than that. 24 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,559 Speaker 1: There's a sense that she mismanaged the economy in recent years. 25 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: The budget deficit, for example, tripled in only two years 26 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: UM to to around ten per of GDP. Inflation is 27 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: way above target, there's no investor confidence, UM, the economies 28 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: in its worst recession in over a century. UM. So 29 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: you get a picture of Brazilians are not happy. They're 30 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: not happy with their president. And this is not entirely 31 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: a legal process. In other words, it's not based only 32 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: on legal facts, but it is also a political process. 33 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: Hence it went to Congress and not to the Supreme 34 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: Court for her to stand trial. Can you outline the 35 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: process of what happens next if indeed she is impeached? 36 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: As I said that, we're expecting the vote sometime late 37 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: to night early tomorrow morning. Then the Senate officially UH 38 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: communicates the the vote to the president she will have 39 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: to step down. The Senate also decides under what conditions 40 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: what kind of privileges does she maintain? If any she 41 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: for example, she's likely to stay in the presidential palace 42 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: but probably won't be able to, you know, use the 43 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 1: presidential plane and those kinds of things. Then hours later 44 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: the Vice President takes over UM as acting presidents and 45 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: in essence that the country will be in his hands. 46 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: A very few people expect rusself to be able to 47 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: bounce back to find the support in in in the 48 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: Senate to avoid a definitive ousta with a two thirds 49 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: majority in the Senate. So Raymon, tell us more about 50 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: Vice President Michael Tamayer. Uh, there is a question of 51 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: what kind of leader he would be. Delmo Roussef herself 52 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: has accused him throughout this process of deliberately undermining her 53 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: prolotting to get her out of office. What's he like? 54 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 1: How would he? But what is for his prospects vetted 55 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: in Brazil well, the financial markets, of course, UH see 56 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: him very favorably. He's more of a business friendly UM 57 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: person than than Dilma was. Thema, of course, from a 58 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: leftist party, from the Workers Party. UM. Timor has already 59 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: outlined some of his economic policies. Downsized government, try to 60 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: cut spending, give more room to the private sector, especially 61 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: in the oil industry and telecommunications. So for for the 62 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: better part of this year, financial markets have been been rallying. Now, 63 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: as we said, there are also some clouds hanging over 64 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 1: Michelle timer Um One is several of his aids, closest 65 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: allies within his own party are being investigated in the 66 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: same corruption probe that essentially rattled Brazil's political establishment, including 67 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: roussef In over the past two years. So that that 68 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: is a big caveat that that he faces that some 69 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: of his closest aids maybe become involved in the same 70 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:32,559 Speaker 1: scandal as well. And the political establishment as a whole 71 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: is not very popular. As a matter of fact, two 72 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: thirds close to two thirds of the Brazilians are extremely disenchanted, 73 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: and that is something that will make his life difficult 74 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: when he tries to push for more austerity measures to 75 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: put the economy back on track. Thanks for spending time 76 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: with us and bringing us up to date, Raymond call 77 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 1: It is Bloomberg bureau chief in Brazilia and the Brazilian 78 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: Ebovespa index, the stock index is up nearly four so 79 00:04:58,839 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: far this year.