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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: In this episode, we will preview the Granddaddy of them all,

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Speaker 1: where the number nine seed Alabama Crimson Tie take on

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Speaker 1: the top seeded and undefeated Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl,

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Speaker 1: kicking off on New Year's Day from Pasadena, California, at

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Speaker 1: four pm Eastern time. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, already

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Speaker 1: getting the sourkrout ready for the occasion, and of course

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Speaker 1: I'm joined by my partner in crime, my PSC Scott

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Speaker 1: Bagman Boggs. I'll never forget waking up as a kid

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Speaker 1: watching the Rose Parade leading straight into the oldest bowl

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Speaker 1: game in college football history. It's tradition like no other.

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Speaker 1: I'm throwed to break it down with you today. What

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Speaker 1: memories come to mind when you think of the Rose Bowl?

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Speaker 1: And will you have any kroud rolling down there for

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Speaker 1: as well?

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Speaker 2: I mean, how about USC Texas. That's that's my memory

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Speaker 2: of the Rose Bawl. Of course, so sour krout, sour

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Speaker 2: krowd is the That's the New Year's meal for Yankees,

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Speaker 2: I'm guessing because down here it's ham collar, greens or

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Speaker 2: greens and black eyed peas so interesting. I hate it.

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Speaker 2: I don't like black eyed peas. I'm not all greens guy, like, uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, I like a lot of Southern food, but

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Speaker 2: these are some you know, a hamhock is fine, whatever,

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Speaker 2: but I don't like it. My mom loves it, has

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Speaker 2: had it since she's a little kid. Not something that

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Speaker 2: I do. I'm like, I'll have my McDonald's, then my

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Speaker 2: news McDonald's. I'm not going to do this nasty stuff.

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Speaker 2: So but yeah, always a fun tradition. The Rose Bowl

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Speaker 2: is picturesque. Although we might get some rain, yeah for

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Speaker 2: this one. We've had you know, almost biblical floods here

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Speaker 2: in California recently, and it looks like this weekend is

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Speaker 2: or this week excuse me, is no exception. So there's

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Speaker 2: a possibility that we get some rain in this but

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Speaker 2: light wind. So rain with light wind usually pretty good

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Speaker 2: for offense.

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Speaker 3: It's more than anything else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, and you know, just happy

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Speaker 1: to be back at Pasadena. Of course, we had the

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Speaker 1: wildfires in California last year not too long after this game,

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Speaker 1: so just really excited that we can be back there

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Speaker 1: for the site of the Rose Bull and very very

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Speaker 1: interested to see how this one plays out, and before

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Speaker 1: we jump in, shout all the ball knowers who are

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Speaker 1: still partying with us ahead of the new year. Please

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Speaker 1: do just a quick favor give this video a thumbs

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Speaker 1: up if you enjoy this type of content. Also make

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Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the channel if your news. You

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Speaker 1: don't miss a moment of college football and NFL betting

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Speaker 1: coverage the rest of the way, and let's jump right

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Speaker 1: into the Rose Bull breakdown, and let's start with the

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Speaker 1: line where if you are interested in betting the favorite

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Speaker 1: Indiana the key number of six and a half, it's

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Speaker 1: starting to disappear. Can I go by the wayside? A

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Speaker 1: little bit still available though at hard Rock Bet. You

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Speaker 1: have to pay a little bit of juice though minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty and then you can get a seven seven

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Speaker 1: and a half with some other books as well. Alabama

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Speaker 1: they're rolling in off an impressive comeback win against Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: in the first round, winning thirty four twenty four in Norman,

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Speaker 1: advancing to ten and three straight up eight and five.

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Speaker 1: Ats Boggs, you and I were belive for that game

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Speaker 1: when they're down seventeen zero, I will never forget not

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Speaker 1: jumping on that seventeen and a half point ticket and

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Speaker 1: under injury front for the Tide. Defensive lineman lt Overton

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Speaker 1: he should be returning. Everyone else should be up for

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Speaker 1: the Tide as well. Indiana, they are coming off the

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Speaker 1: buy and they previously defeated Ohio State thirteen to ten

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Speaker 1: in the Big Ten championship game to move to thirteen

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Speaker 1: and zero straight up eight and five ats six. Signetti

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Speaker 1: he thinks he should have everyone up for this game

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Speaker 1: other than Edge Stephen Dally, who is out with the

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Speaker 1: leg injury. BP projections Right now we have IU by

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Speaker 1: nearly a seven point favorite. And when it comes to

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Speaker 1: what the public is doing for this game, seventy percent

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Speaker 1: of the tickets, sixty percent of the cash is on

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Speaker 1: Bama sixty percent of tickets, and fifty two percent of

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Speaker 1: cash is on the under bugs. Are you going with

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Speaker 1: the public on either side of this?

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm very surprised, and first of all, online to

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Speaker 2: touch the time, I'll just say that straight out. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to mess with it. I think it's pretty

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Speaker 2: close to write the line I feel like is a

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Speaker 2: good line as well. But I gotta say I am

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Speaker 2: genuinely surprised about the Alabama narrative that I have heard

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Speaker 2: this week and same. I think that this is the

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Speaker 2: end of the line for the twenty twenty five Crimson Tide.

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Speaker 3: I think this is it.

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Speaker 2: I'm very surprised that the public betting narrative, and you

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Speaker 2: know a lot of people just haven't seen the Hoosiers

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Speaker 2: playing a month and we did just see Bama come

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Speaker 2: back and all that, and you know, I don't I don't.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to completely write off Alabama. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it is crazy to think that they can win

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Speaker 2: this game. I think it is within the realm of possibility,

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Speaker 2: but I would give it a very low percentage chance

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Speaker 2: to happen.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: I just Mendoza has been run down a little bit

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Speaker 2: in this discussion as well, and I feel like that's

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Speaker 2: just silly based on how great the dude has been.

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Speaker 2: He's won the Heisman, right, He's been amazing this season,

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Speaker 2: And maybe there's a little rust and I think you

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Speaker 2: can you can take that for all these teams had

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Speaker 2: a long layoff, Right, you can say that for any

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Speaker 2: of these teams, like maybe it starts a little bit

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Speaker 2: slow and clunky and all that stuff. But I just

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Speaker 2: don't think so. I Mendoza is not going to make

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Speaker 2: the mistakes and the tear made during that Alabama comeback.

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Speaker 2: I think Mendoza was fourteenth of one hundred and five

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Speaker 2: graded quarterbacks into an overworthy play percentage because he'll take

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Speaker 2: a sack to not put the ball on Harmy's play.

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Speaker 2: And I've heard that narrative a lot. He was sacked

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Speaker 2: five times against Wisconsin. Yeah, he was also twenty two

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Speaker 2: of twenty four for two hundred and ninety nine and

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Speaker 2: four touchdowns. Right, he's thrown six picks, but no more

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Speaker 2: than one in a game. I guess what they won

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Speaker 2: all of those games. Right, they're undefeated, clearly. Good thing

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Speaker 2: for Indiana and Alabama. You know, good thing Randy has

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Speaker 2: that Alabama hasn't put pressure on passers. Well, this running

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Speaker 2: back group and Mendoza all have six rushing touchdowns as well.

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Speaker 2: Kylen Black has seven, and they are eleventh in the

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Speaker 2: nation in running the ball. Alabama has been incredibly inconsistent

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Speaker 2: on offense, even in the first round. They were awful

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Speaker 2: to start three and out, three and out, three and out,

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Speaker 2: and then they popped off. The biggest question for Alabama

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Speaker 2: in this game to me is can jam Miller turned

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Speaker 2: this Alabama run game around because it's been bad all year.

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Speaker 2: There's you know, obviously Stephen Daily. Losing him is a

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Speaker 2: big blow for Indiana. Of course, we haven't seen them

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Speaker 2: play without him all year because I think he got

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Speaker 2: hurt in practice, he wasn't hurt in that game, or

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Speaker 2: he got hurt. I think maybe celebrating. That's what it

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Speaker 2: was that went over Ohio State. So just a bummer,

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Speaker 2: a dumb freak thing to happen. But he has been

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Speaker 2: their best run stopper. But d C. Bryant Haynes called

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Speaker 2: out Daniel Duke way to make an impact here, and

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Speaker 2: they've had a month to get him ready.

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to be fine.

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Speaker 2: Still, Yeah, Kamara is great, So yeah, Daily's the best

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Speaker 2: run stopper. I think Kamara puts pressure on the pass

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Speaker 2: is better. But they have replacements. They'll be okay. Indiana

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Speaker 2: has had some close calls, Iowa, Penn State, We're tough,

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Speaker 2: but Oregon was a ten point road win and they

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Speaker 2: beat a team that looked unbeatable in Ohio State. Bema's inconsistent,

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Speaker 2: their one dimensional offense, and while the defense has really

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Speaker 2: improved down the stretch for them and is healthy, they

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Speaker 2: haven't pressured a posting quarterbacks on a consistent basis, So

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Speaker 2: can Alabama win?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: The talent's incredible, and while Indiana is great, they aren't

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Speaker 2: the best CFP number one seed that we've ever seen

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Speaker 2: in our lives. But in what would what world can

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Speaker 2: we trust Alabama to put money on them? Is my

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Speaker 2: question here when we've seen them play up and down, inconsistent.

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Speaker 2: Even within the game that they played last week, they

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Speaker 2: were inconsistent. So coach Sig with a month to prepare,

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Speaker 2: is going to get my pick every single time lay

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Speaker 2: the points, take the Hoosiers. I've got this as a

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Speaker 2: thirty one to twenty Indiana dup.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Well, I am really really there right there with you, man,

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Speaker 1: because to me, I think the key to this game,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, Alabama cannot the ball. They're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventeenth in rushing. It doesn't seem to be getting

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Speaker 1: any better, and like to be someone as good as Indiana,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to keep them off the field, right.

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Speaker 1: You need long sustained drives to keep Fernando Omar Cooper

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Speaker 1: Junior Elijhasra this top five scoring offense off the field. Bama.

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Speaker 1: They passed the ball over sixty point two percent of

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Speaker 1: their plays, and I know that daily injury really does hurt,

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Speaker 1: and I think especially impacts a team like Indiana that Look,

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Speaker 1: they haven't had a ton of recruiting classes since Sigga's

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Speaker 1: overtaken us to build up the depth on the defensive line,

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Speaker 1: but they're still fifth most in sacks per game. And

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Speaker 1: I think with Alabama gonna be in some like obvious

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Speaker 1: passing down situations, Bogs, they're just gonna tea off on

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Speaker 1: them right, like they're gonna be able to send the house.

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Speaker 1: And Indiana to me, is also the cleaner team when

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Speaker 1: it comes to penalties, the sixth fewest in the country.

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Speaker 1: They're better at converting on third down, the top clip

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Speaker 1: in the country Bama converting at the thirty third highest rate,

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Speaker 1: and they're better scoring in the ren zone twenty fourth

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Speaker 1: in the nation compared to Bama's forty ninth. Like Indiana,

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Speaker 1: to me, they are the more complete team. I think

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Speaker 1: they show it here some squad Ryan with you minus

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Speaker 1: six and a half minus one twenty right there over

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Speaker 1: at hard Rock Bet. And I'm gonna wait, Bogs, because

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Speaker 1: I think even this could come down with the money

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Speaker 1: coming in on Bama. Let's see what happens. Maybe the

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Speaker 1: professional money shifts it over the next twenty four hours, but.

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Speaker 3: You would like to I hope so.

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Speaker 2: But I am genuinely surprised that we see more money

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Speaker 2: and tickets on Bama and the line is creeping over

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Speaker 2: a touchdown. So hopefully you're right, because I would like

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Speaker 2: to wait, and I have waited for this game, so

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Speaker 2: i'd like to see it come back down to at

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Speaker 2: least six and a half.

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Speaker 3: But we'll see.

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Speaker 2: We'll see what happens with you know, the big money

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Speaker 2: coming in, but it hasn't been doing that, and I

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Speaker 2: feel like, you know, you mentioned it, seth Statistically, I

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Speaker 2: don't think there's many things that Alabama is better than

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Speaker 2: Indiana in and in PFF grades, it's nothing like on

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Speaker 2: on all those grades. I think Indiana is better at

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Speaker 2: literally everything than Alabama.

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Speaker 3: So it is.

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Speaker 2: It's just helmet scouting, you know, it's just a tradition

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Speaker 2: of Alabama over Indiana at this point because it's not

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Speaker 2: the reality of what we see what we have seen

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Speaker 2: on the field.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there with you. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: our first squad ride of the College Football Playoff that

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Speaker 1: we're coming in here together on ONU. Let's smoke that

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Speaker 1: sig signetty pack once again. Filter or not, we don't care.

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Speaker 1: We're breathing in the toxins that is that Western Pa

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Speaker 1: yinzer out there in Bloomington. And before we keep it moving,

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Speaker 1: your quick reminder that if you're looking to up your

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Speaker 1: also participate in our weekly community picks, cast your vote

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Speaker 1: and see how your picks stack up against the experts

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Speaker 1: and track your success Today again, go to Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash chat to get yourself started. And Bogs, let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and jump into your top player for this game.

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Speaker 1: And I want to start with the anytime touchdown market

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Speaker 1: where you have not one, but two plays for us.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna go Roman Hemby, the massive running back for Indiana.

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Speaker 3: Big boy had six this year.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of tough to know which one of these

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Speaker 2: backs is going to score because they do spread it out.

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Speaker 2: Mendoza has six, Black has seven, Hemby has six as well,

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Speaker 2: so they do spread it out a little bit. But

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Speaker 2: I do like him to run one in. And Isaiah Horton,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, we've just seen this passing game kind

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Speaker 2: of flow through him recently. We saw that against Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: Obviously the Loatzier kid came up as well, but Ryan

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Speaker 2: Williams has been a ghost. So I just I think

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Speaker 2: things are going to go towards Isaiah Horton. Let's go

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Speaker 2: to Fernando Mendoza. I'm gonna go over seventeen and a

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Speaker 2: half completions series cleared this eight times this year, including

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Speaker 2: against Oregon, Penn State, Wisconsin, some tough defenses, and Indiana

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Speaker 2: is number one in third down conversion percentage, and it's

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Speaker 2: just something that they work on every single week is

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Speaker 2: converting those third downs, and Mendoza has been absolutely excellent

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Speaker 2: at that all year. They don't put pressure on the passer. Well,

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Speaker 2: even with Overton, I don't think it's going to be great.

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Speaker 2: They did have seven sacks against Matier, but I do

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Speaker 2: think that that was a lot of Materier holding on

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Speaker 2: the ball, trying to make the big play and waiting

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Speaker 2: for somebody to come open. We have the quick trigger

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Speaker 2: from Mendoza, one of the fastest in time to throw

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Speaker 2: this season. So I think he's gonna have over seventeen.

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Speaker 3: And a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna do it, Seth, We're gonna go under Ryan

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Speaker 2: Williams two and a half receptions. I think he's hurt.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't played well because of it. I think he's

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Speaker 2: hiding an injury or something. Maybe it's attitude. I'm not sure.

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Speaker 2: He's a young man, but it has been awful from

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Speaker 2: what we've seen you offhandedly. While we're doing that, I

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Speaker 2: was like, is that Ryan Williams? And you said no,

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Speaker 2: Ryan Williams is a ghost and you were right. He

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Speaker 2: hasn't had more than two catches in the last four games.

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Speaker 2: So against a tough Indiana defense, I don't know how

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Speaker 2: that's gonna change. So let's go with Ryan Williams under

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Speaker 2: two and a half receptions. And my last prop for

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Speaker 2: this game. Josh Quavis, the tight end for Alabama over

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Speaker 2: sixteen and a half on his longest reception. He's cleared

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Speaker 2: this in seven of eleven games, three straight. If there

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Speaker 2: is a weakness in the Indiana defense at all. It's

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Speaker 2: their linebacker coverage. It's been a little bit rough. Elijah

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Speaker 2: Hardy has allowed thirty five receptions on forty six targets

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Speaker 2: at seventy six point one percent. Aiden Fisher twenty three

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Speaker 2: receptions on thirty targets seventy six point seven percentage. So

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Speaker 2: those guys are allowing some catches. I think Josh Quavis

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Speaker 2: could have a big win. And also you and I

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Speaker 2: both feel like Alabama's going to be playing from behind

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Speaker 2: in the majority of this game, so could be a

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Speaker 2: nice deep perception for Quavis late in this game if

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Speaker 2: they aren't, you know, drawing up plays for him early,

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Speaker 2: which they probably should because that is one of the

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Speaker 2: weaker parts of the Hoosiers defense. So two touchdowns, we're

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Speaker 2: going with Horton, We're going with Hemby Mendoza over seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half, Ryan Williams under two and a half receptions,

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Speaker 2: and Josh Quavis to over six have longest reception or

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Speaker 2: the props for this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm here for him, man. I especially like the Isaiah

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Speaker 1: Horton anytime touchdown call because I mean, this is a

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Speaker 1: guy that I was pretty high on coming into the season,

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Speaker 1: I had him on at least two of my college

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Speaker 1: fantasy football rosters and really wasn't someone I was plugging

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Speaker 1: into my lineup most of the year Bogs because it

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Speaker 1: was really moving through Bernard. But that hasn't shifted, and

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Speaker 1: like Ryan Williams, as you mentioned, this guy has not

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Speaker 1: been out there producing solid numbers. And so crazy to

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Speaker 1: me because like he was working with Jalen Milroe last year, right,

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Speaker 1: And but like also I saw someone out there and

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Speaker 1: I can't give him credits. I don't know who it is,

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Speaker 1: but someone on the internet said a lot of that

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Speaker 1: production for Ryan Williams last year came in the first

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Speaker 1: couple of non con games for Alabama last year with

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Speaker 1: Milroe under center. So maybe it's just one of those

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Speaker 1: situations where hey, the young man busted onto the scene

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Speaker 1: and just you know, maybe got a little over hiked,

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Speaker 1: or maybe it is a situation where he's hurt, or

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Speaker 1: it's a.

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Speaker 3: Bit of a hidden injury. It could be a litle

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Speaker 3: bit of the doghouse.

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Speaker 2: But the thing is when we saw it against Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: was he was such a non factor that they were

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Speaker 2: rolling their best corners towards Jeremy Bernard because he's been

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Speaker 2: the best wide receiver there during this season. So when

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Speaker 2: that took place, we saw lots of year, we saw

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Speaker 2: Horton get a lot of receptions. So I think that

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Speaker 2: that is the way this game isqin a fuinnal.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, box, Let's get to the same game parlay

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Speaker 1: of the week four the Rose Bowl where in leg

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Speaker 1: one we both love that minus six and a half ticket,

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Speaker 1: so I put that in for leg one minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty and then in leg two, I think it's Fernando Mendoza.

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Speaker 1: If Indiana's gonna win this game, you'd have to think

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Speaker 1: that their Heisman Trophy winter quarterback is going to go

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Speaker 1: over seventeen a half completions minus one fourteen put that

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Speaker 1: together plus two eighteen.

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Speaker 3: My friend, let's go, let's get it.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited for it.

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Speaker 4: Man.

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Speaker 1: This is where you know, legends are born in the

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Speaker 1: Rose Bowl and legends continue to grow in the Rose

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Speaker 1: bul So excite for what Fernando Mendoza can do and

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Speaker 1: you know, solidify his legacy as one of the best

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Speaker 1: all time college quarterback seasons I think we've seen in

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Speaker 1: recent memory.

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Speaker 3: Do you think this should just be the Natty every year.

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Speaker 1: I'm okay. I'd be absolutely okay.

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Speaker 3: I'd be fine with that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so uh yeah, I I don't mind if they

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Speaker 2: want to do that moving forward.

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Speaker 3: I think that would be okay.

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Speaker 1: But the issue is you always play the rose ball

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Speaker 1: on New Year's right. It's a tradition. So it's like,

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Speaker 1: do you move You'd have to move the season up

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Speaker 1: two weeks pretty much, is what you'd have to do

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Speaker 1: at that.

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Speaker 3: You know you wouldn't you move the rose ball back?

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Speaker 2: I get that in tradition the prey roses the thing,

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Speaker 2: but it is it is the rose ball year long.

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Speaker 1: I think. I will say, I think there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of bigger things that you and I could gripe

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Speaker 1: about with the college football schedule and then where the

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Speaker 1: championship game is when the rose bul is played, Like, first,

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Speaker 1: let's figure out the whole transfer portal and the coach

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Speaker 1: is changing teams during the playoff situation first. But Boggs,

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Speaker 1: when you're elected commissioner, we will put that on your

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Speaker 1: list somewhere. It's not going to be in like you know,

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Speaker 1: your promises and the things that you run on, but

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Speaker 1: it will be you know, when you click the drop down,

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Speaker 1: I'll be in the accordion right there. How about that

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Speaker 1: a good deal?

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Speaker 3: Make me commissioner. We're gonna have a lot of changes,

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Speaker 3: all right.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to the final score predictions, then get out

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Speaker 1: of here. Bogs final score for Indiana Alabama in the

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Speaker 1: Rose bul Pasadena, California.

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Speaker 3: What do you have?

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Speaker 2: Thirty one twenty I think probably twenty four to twenty

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Speaker 2: for a lot of the game, and then a late

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Speaker 2: touchdown to seal it for Indiana makes it thirty one

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Speaker 2: to twenty and they cover.

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Speaker 3: So I got them winning by eleven.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm kind of on a very similar wavelength here.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to Indiana thirty Alabama twenty three. I think

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Speaker 1: we are gonna cover this one. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a little bit of a sweater though. But that's

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Speaker 1: the college Football Playoff for you, folks, and that is

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Speaker 1: the betting pros college Football show for you as well.

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Speaker 1: Be sure go check out Bog's best bets for the

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Speaker 1: remaining bowl games wherever you listen to your podcast or

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Speaker 1: here on YouTube. Also, we have micro episodes out for

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Speaker 1: all three of the remaining college football Playoff games coming

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Speaker 1: your way this week. Let us know down in the

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Speaker 1: comments below your favorite picks for the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: Rose Bowl, and while you're here, to make sure you're

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Speaker 1: smashing that like but and subscribing to the channel. If

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Speaker 1: you're new for Scott Big Time Bogman, I'm seth. We'll

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Speaker 1: cock take care of y'all.

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