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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Everybody? Welcome into the Action Network Podcast to Brendan glas

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Speaker 3: Sheen with our UFC crew to preview UFC two seventy

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Speaker 3: five in Singapore. We've got eleven fights to get to.

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Speaker 3: We won't get to all fights, but we'll get to

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Speaker 3: some of the you know, the keys of the weekend.

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Speaker 3: We've got the main event, Comane Dogs props, Fight of

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Speaker 3: the Night, Sean and Billy's Fight of the Night prop

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Speaker 3: bet each of the guys like best bets and also

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Speaker 3: we'll have a DFS outlook from Billy. Billy Ward, former

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Speaker 3: professional MMA fighter also one of our best MMA analysts

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Speaker 3: at the Action Network. Shan Zarillo, also a senior writer,

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Speaker 3: covers the fighting side for us as well. Looking forward

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Speaker 3: to it. Good to be back on the pod talking UFC.

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Speaker 3: We've got a great main event here. We've got Glover

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Speaker 3: to Shia and Yuri Prahashka. Prahashka is the favorite. Zarrillo.

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Speaker 3: What's the read here on the Fight of the night?

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Speaker 3: What do you got or the main event?

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Speaker 4: I should say I love the unders here and I

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Speaker 4: don't view it so dissimilarly from what was my other

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Speaker 4: biggest bet of the Year on the unders in the

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Speaker 4: gatcheol of Air fight. In that matchup and in this matchup,

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Speaker 4: you have two fighters who were glass cannons, offensive dinamos

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Speaker 4: with big holes and liabilities on the defense event. Yuri's striking, volume, output,

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Speaker 4: speed reach all advantages for him here, but he's been

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Speaker 4: hurt in both of his UFC fights. He's been hurt

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Speaker 4: consistently regionally knocked out four times, I believe in his career,

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Speaker 4: not in a while, but hurt badly in both of

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Speaker 4: his UFC fights. Actually went out for a minute and

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Speaker 4: then recovered. Against Dom Reyis got mounted in that fight.

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Speaker 4: If Glover gets on top of your it could be

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Speaker 4: an instance. Ub. I think there's major holes in Yuri's

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Speaker 4: grappling game. His takedown defense is pretty subpar. You can

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Speaker 4: get him to the ground, and if Glover mounts them

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Speaker 4: like Dom did, I don't think Year's getting back up.

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Speaker 4: That said, Glover also gets hurt in every fight, and

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Speaker 4: both of these guys tend to recover pretty quickly and

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Speaker 4: end up rallying. And that's why they're both on winning

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Speaker 4: streaks because they've rallied back to victory. But they're both

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Speaker 4: very able to be hurt. Both very open on the

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Speaker 4: defensive end. Yuri's kind of wild to leave himself open

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Speaker 4: for takedowns, but Glover is there to be hit, and

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Speaker 4: with the speed advantage that Uri has, I think he's

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Speaker 4: probably gonna catch him multiple times early. The question is

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Speaker 4: whether Glover can withstand those and maybe get into a clinch,

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Speaker 4: get the takedown and go from there. So the under

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Speaker 4: one and a half could hit certainly. I paid juice

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Speaker 4: on the unders. I bet the under two and a

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Speaker 4: half at minus one seventy eight, the under three and

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Speaker 4: a half at minus two to eighty, and then even

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Speaker 4: the under four and a half at minus four hundred.

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Speaker 4: This fight to end inside the distance was listed as

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Speaker 4: high as minus seven hundred on some.

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Speaker 2: Of these books.

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Speaker 4: It's come down a little bit, but even that minus

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Speaker 4: four hundred for the under four and a half I

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Speaker 4: think is actually five to seven percent edge. I projected

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Speaker 4: this around eighty eight percent to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 4: I do not see it going the full twenty five minutes.

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Speaker 4: I have a lot of money on these unders, but

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Speaker 4: in terms of money line side a value side between

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Speaker 4: the two fighters, I think Glover is probably the side

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Speaker 4: from a moneyline perspective, that's that I prefer as inside

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Speaker 4: distance props. Inside the distance at plus U fifty for

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Speaker 4: Glover projected that closer plus two hundred and a submission

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Speaker 4: prop you can get around plus three eighty at fan.

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Speaker 2: I believe I.

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Speaker 4: Projected that around plus you eighty. So Glover and the unders,

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Speaker 4: Glover inside the distance and the unders. That's how I'm

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Speaker 4: attacking this fight. But just pure violence, very binary. But

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Speaker 4: I expect somebody to get finished and probably relatively quickly.

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Speaker 3: Bill, you're struggling to come around on a side here

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Speaker 3: or what's how are you compartmentalizing to make a pick?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this isn't one where I see, you know, either

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Speaker 5: side is necessarily having a good value from a straight

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Speaker 5: up money line standpoint. If I had to put a

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Speaker 5: straight up bet on this one, I like Urian that's

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Speaker 5: only minus one fifty, So we're just getting a little

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Speaker 5: better price on that than on some of the unders

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Speaker 5: and stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: But I'm with Sean.

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Speaker 5: I see this fight going out exactly the way he did. Honestly,

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Speaker 5: my favorite bat if you will, this is the prize

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Speaker 5: picks line. You can get Glover under one and a

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Speaker 5: half takedowns. That's what they've got it set right now,

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Speaker 5: and Sean laid out exactly why I think that's a

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Speaker 5: good bat. I don't think Gary gets back up if

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Speaker 5: he does get taken down and into a bad position.

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Speaker 2: So there's just a lot of ways that.

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Speaker 5: One's go right in terms of year getting a quick knockout,

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Speaker 5: or once Glover gets on top of him, then it

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Speaker 5: looks like, you know, a submission is probably pretty eminent.

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Speaker 5: But h yeah, you know, this is one I'm very

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Speaker 5: interested in and for DraftKings and daily fantasy stuff, just

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Speaker 5: because of Sean laid out, it's super likely to end

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Speaker 5: inside the distance, but not one that I'm really very

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Speaker 5: confident in any individual bets on.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's move on then to the Co Maine event.

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Speaker 3: We've got Valentina Chivchenko and Tyla Santos. Santos the significant

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Speaker 3: dog at plus four to twenty five. Chivchenko is at

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Speaker 3: minus six point fifty. But of course, you know, we

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Speaker 3: don't really see much value there in Schevchenko, so we'll

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Speaker 3: go to Billy first. Here, Billy, what's the how could

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Speaker 3: you bet this fight?

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Speaker 2: If you've got to read on it?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, Chevchenko is quite arguably the best female

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Speaker 5: fighter we've ever seen inside the UFC. Her only two

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Speaker 5: losses in the UFCRE to Amanda Nunas up a weight class,

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Speaker 5: and she's looking to make a seventh consecutive title run

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Speaker 5: or a title defense in this run right now against

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Speaker 5: Tyler Santos. So you know, that explains the lines that

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Speaker 5: we're seeing in the stuff, like and how wide it

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Speaker 5: is right now. She's a former high level boxing and

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Speaker 5: kickboxing fighter, but she hasn't really finished anyone on the

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Speaker 5: feet as of late. You know, most of her stoppages

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Speaker 5: lately have been ground and pound elbows from Mount Crucifix,

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Speaker 5: stuff like that, and that's why I'm starting to see

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Speaker 5: a little bit of an angle on Santo's here. Santos

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Speaker 5: started out as a muhite tai fighter. Santos has three

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Speaker 5: knockdowns in her five fight USC career. Chef Chenko has

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Speaker 5: won in I think thirteen fights. So, you know, we've

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Speaker 5: seen a lot of WMMA fights where there's been big abscess.

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Speaker 5: You know, Rowsey lost to Holmes, Amanda new As losing

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Speaker 5: to Penya recently, and I'm starting to feel like this

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Speaker 5: might be another one where we're seeing a plus four

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Speaker 5: to fifty fighter. But I think has at least a

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Speaker 5: reasonable power edge here. She looks like the bigger, stronger fighter,

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Speaker 5: and she could also kind of just bully shove a

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Speaker 5: Chenko up against the cage. So it's really more based

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Speaker 5: on a like a gut feeling and an all title

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Speaker 5: rans have to come to an end at some point.

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Speaker 5: But I actually like Santos's money line at plus four

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Speaker 5: fifty in this one.

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Speaker 3: All right, looking at the co made Zerrilla the women's

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Speaker 3: flyweight belt, what do you have for us?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? So I see the path for Santos.

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Speaker 4: As Billy mentioned, if she can bullier, maybe get a

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Speaker 4: couple of takedowns. Jennifer Mya believe the only person to

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Speaker 4: take a round off of Valentino aside from Amanda Nunez,

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Speaker 4: and that was with the takedown and holding her down

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Speaker 4: on the ground. Can Santos do it three times?

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure.

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Speaker 4: She's never been five rounds before, so that's a major

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Speaker 4: question mark. Her level of competition is actually pretty questionable.

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Speaker 4: I think her best win in terms of wins that

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Speaker 4: have aged well is maybe Molly McCann, who's two and one,

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Speaker 4: since they fought her. Other three opponents that she's beaten

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Speaker 4: in the UFC are one and four, and two of

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Speaker 4: them have retired, and that win was over Priscilla Catchware,

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Speaker 4: who's one of the lesser fighters in WMMA and the UFC.

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Speaker 3: So I could see.

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Speaker 4: Santos maybe winning one of the first three rounds. I

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Speaker 4: would probably look to jumping live on shift Chenko if

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Speaker 4: her price drops from where it is currently currently, maybe

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Speaker 4: to minus three hundred, if it has something like that,

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Speaker 4: If it's one one after two, that would be an

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Speaker 4: angle I'd look to take. If I'm playing the Santos side.

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Speaker 4: The one place I did project value on this fight

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Speaker 4: is Santos by decision. You can get value on that

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Speaker 4: at plus twelve hundred. I projected it closer to plus

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Speaker 4: one thousand. So maybe a very small small stab, like

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Speaker 4: a tenth of a unit stab on Santos by decision

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Speaker 4: if you want to pre fight bet. But probably the

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Speaker 4: way I'll look to play it is to take Shiftchenko

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Speaker 4: at a better price if she drops one of the

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Speaker 4: first two rounds.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk some dogs now, UFC two to seventy five

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Speaker 3: again in Singapore at the Singapore Indoor Stadium, looking at

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Speaker 3: dogs and Zorilla. I'll go to you first here, you

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Speaker 3: got something for us coming up as well in the

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Speaker 3: fight of the night that's coming next. But you're gonna

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Speaker 3: go with some plus money here, some good plus money

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Speaker 3: for a DOUG.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna take a total that's an underdog. The

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Speaker 4: over two and a half rounds between Maha Chete and

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Speaker 4: Steve Garcia can get that a plus one forty. It

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Speaker 4: goes to the decision line is plus one eighty, So

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Speaker 4: this is a lightweight fight. Lightweight fights go to decision

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Speaker 4: around forty eight percent of the time, finish right at

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Speaker 4: lightweight to fifty two percent. This bout is line closer

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Speaker 4: to sixty five percent to end inside the distance. So

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Speaker 4: I just think it's gone a little bit too far.

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Speaker 4: I don't see either fighter as a particularly potent finisher.

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Speaker 4: Steve Garcia of the two, maybe the one who's less durable.

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Speaker 4: He's come up and wait, got hurt in his last

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Speaker 4: fight against Charlie and Taveras, who's a very low level fighter.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure this is durable one to fifty five,

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Speaker 4: as he was at one forty five. That said, I

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Speaker 4: don't really see either guy as a potent finisher. I

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Speaker 4: would expect this fight to go to a decision around

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Speaker 4: the average for lightweight, and you're getting close to a

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Speaker 4: seventy to ten percent edge there relative to your average

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Speaker 4: lightweight fights. So fight to go to the distance at

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Speaker 4: plus one eighty and then i'll have more on the

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Speaker 4: over two and a half at plus one forty.

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Speaker 3: Billy favorite Dog.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going a little bit longer odds with this

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Speaker 5: one that I'm super comfortable with. But Jacob malcoun is

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Speaker 5: all the way up to plus two to fifty on

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Speaker 5: DraftKings and he's fighting Brendan Allen, who one hasn't super

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Speaker 5: impressed me lately. But Allen is mostly a submission guy

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Speaker 5: who doesn't really have great takedown defense. We saw Malcoon

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Speaker 5: in his last fight attempt like eleven or twelve takedowns

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Speaker 5: just kind of relentlessly pursue it. So it really feels

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Speaker 5: like a fairly clear path to a Malcoon victory here.

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Speaker 5: He just needs to continue to get those takedowns, do

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Speaker 5: enough damage on the ground, and stay out of the submission.

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Speaker 5: I don't think we've really seen Malcoon fight any high

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Speaker 5: level submission type fighters, at least not in the UFC,

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Speaker 5: so it's a bit of a question mark in terms

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Speaker 5: of whether he's gonna be able to avoid that from Allan,

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Speaker 5: but I do think at plus two to fifty, with

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Speaker 5: such a clear path, that's a pretty good value.

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Speaker 3: Okay, very good. Moving on to the fight of the night,

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Speaker 3: and you gotta go back to twenty twenty early twenty two,

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Speaker 3: arguably the fight of the year, a rematch between Yojana

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Speaker 3: Drecheck excuse me and Jung Whaley Wayley at minus one

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Speaker 3: seventy five at Draychrek at plus one. This is the

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Speaker 3: first time we're going to see Ye Drechek since that

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Speaker 3: fight in early twenty twenty, so it's been a while.

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Speaker 3: Zorilla will start with you, how do you go about

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Speaker 3: handicapping this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, going from a five round war to a three

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Speaker 4: round fight, maybe we get a more tepi and pace.

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Speaker 4: I think Johanna's biggest issue in that fight is that

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Speaker 4: she went to war and she doesn't have as much

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Speaker 4: power as Whaley. She's more technical, she's faster, better defensively,

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Speaker 4: and if she makes this a more technical fight, I

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Speaker 4: don't see how it's not a fifty to fifty fight.

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Speaker 4: Wiley with the power the way Joanna has head swalled

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Speaker 4: up the optics for the judges, I think that's ultimately

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Speaker 4: why she'd want it. I think most people would actually

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Speaker 4: agree that Yanna has the better cardio in five rounds

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Speaker 4: as opposed to three rounds, would probably help her in

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Speaker 4: the first fight. If it ended after three, she would

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Speaker 4: have won a split decision, So I think that fact

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Speaker 4: is interesting. The margins and these rounds were so close.

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Speaker 4: I think the break or won. I think Wiley won

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Speaker 4: the fight. She probably had an argument for winning forty

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Speaker 4: nine forty six, where Johanna would have had to edge

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Speaker 4: out a forty to forty seven split, And if you

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Speaker 4: look at the media scorecards, that's generally where the consensus

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Speaker 4: opinion was a bunch hat at forty nine to forty

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Speaker 4: six for Wiley, a few hat it for Joanna three

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Speaker 4: to two. But Johanna just wore the damage really badly.

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Speaker 4: And if she's a bit more technical this time, doesn't

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Speaker 4: try to go to war uses her speed advantage, stays

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Speaker 4: on the outside with her footwork, I think she can

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Speaker 4: certainly win a decision here. The margins are going to

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Speaker 4: be very thin for scoring these rounds. I mentioned the

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Speaker 4: power optics definitely swing towards Wiley, But if she can't

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Speaker 4: get on the inside of Johanna. She can't get takedowns here,

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Speaker 4: and she has the grappling upside Wiley does, but I

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Speaker 4: don't see her getting takedowns at high volume or keeping

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Speaker 4: Johanna dead for long. So if it's not a war

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Speaker 4: this time, it's basically a coin flip. I would have

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Speaker 4: been happy to take either fighter plus money, it didn't

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Speaker 4: really matter who it was. So Joanna plus one forty

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Speaker 4: five is a bet for me. But I'm also going

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Speaker 4: to take the fight to go to a decision minus

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Speaker 4: two hundred when I projected this closer to minus two sixty.

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Speaker 4: So I have bets both on the fight to go

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Speaker 4: to distance and on Johanna's money line. You could just

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Speaker 4: bet her decision prop as well, around plus two hundred.

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Speaker 4: I see value on that as well, But I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: split my wagers hope for a push at worst, and

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Speaker 4: maybe we cash both of them.

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Speaker 3: All right, Billy, Fight of the Night kind of laid

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Speaker 3: it out for you there, and Sorillo did a good

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Speaker 3: job recapping how do you go about looking at this fight?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Sean made a ton of similar points to what

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Speaker 5: I was looking at, Like, I'm really glad he brought

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Speaker 5: up where the scorecards were after three rounds. I think

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Speaker 5: the public consensus is that Johanna has better cardio, so

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Speaker 5: therefore a three round fight actually shifts it towards Dang.

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Speaker 5: But you know, she has the team behind her, she's

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Speaker 5: training an att I think they're going to recognize that

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Speaker 5: and say, hey, it's only three rounds. You can turn

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Speaker 5: up the volume, you can push the pace a little

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Speaker 5: bit more here, and some of that power and damage optics,

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Speaker 5: maybe those don't look so bad after three rounds.

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Speaker 2: You know, the hum of tomato on her.

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Speaker 5: Forehead about third the size after three rounds as it

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Speaker 5: was by the end of the night.

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Speaker 2: So does that, you know, work in her favor too.

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Speaker 2: The only thing that gives me a little pause is

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Speaker 2: just a two year layoff.

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Speaker 5: But in those two years, Jang has been knocked out

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Speaker 5: by Rose Nammunis and then lost another fight to Rose

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Speaker 5: nam Unis, So it doesn't really look like we're seeing

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Speaker 5: Jang having improved in that time span, where Jouana very

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Speaker 5: well could have. She could have taken those two years

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Speaker 5: got with a good team, really plugged up some holes

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Speaker 5: in her game. So I think plus one to forty

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Speaker 5: five is the best you can get on her and

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Speaker 5: I'm all over that on this.

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Speaker 4: One now onto Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy

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Speaker 2: Okay, back to the show.

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Speaker 3: Excellent, very good. Let's go to some props, and we

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Speaker 3: encourage this of course with any bit you make, but

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Speaker 3: shop those lines, especially when it comes to the player

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Speaker 3: props that are available. What do you got for is

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Speaker 3: Sean Zarillo in the prop market for UFC two seventy five.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, one of these fights got canceled, so I only

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Speaker 4: have one favorite prop left. The other rould have been Starboys.

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Speaker 4: Side the distance that fight is off. Billy already laid

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Speaker 4: out the case for Jacob malcun Now, I'm not sure

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Speaker 4: if this guy could bust the grape if you put

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00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,360
Speaker 4: it in front of him. He is very much a

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Speaker 4: decision machine, going to try to take you down, hold

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Speaker 4: you down for extended periods, and in terms of how

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00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,640
Speaker 4: fights are scored now, it's not particularly friendly to the

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Speaker 4: judges because he doesn't do a lot of damage. He

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Speaker 4: just sort of turns himself into a blanket and lays

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Speaker 4: on top of you. But just by the math Malcot

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00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 4: is very likely to win his bouts by decision. I

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Speaker 4: projected the decision as sixty percent of his wing condition.

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Speaker 4: I actually probably could have put it higher, closer to

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00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,440
Speaker 4: seventy or seventy five percent. There's some plus nine hundreds

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00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 4: out there on malcoun by decision. And if you just

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00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,080
Speaker 4: take his money line, you take his decision prop. The

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00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,120
Speaker 4: market's telling you that he's going to win a decision

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00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 4: about thirty five to forty percent of the time and

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00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,360
Speaker 4: finish around sixty percent of the time. That doesn't make

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00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,480
Speaker 4: any sense to me. It should be double that. So

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Speaker 4: I projected a decision number around plus five hundred plus

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00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 4: five to fifty, you can get a plus nine hundred

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Speaker 4: out there. I like that, probably all the way down

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Speaker 4: to plus seven hundred on malcom by decision. Not a

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00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 4: huge bet for me, about a quarter unit, but I

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00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,920
Speaker 4: think tremendous value based on how he fights and how

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Speaker 4: he needs to win his fight. It's just a massive number.

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Speaker 3: All right, Billy, you've worked at the you've looked at

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Speaker 3: the prop market here, and you've done some surfing.

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Speaker 2: What do you have? Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I wish I would have looked at the prop market

361
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,880
Speaker 5: a little harder before I gave out Malcom straight up

362
00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 5: as soon as I saw the email from Toronto, is like, yeah, no,

363
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 5: that makes a lot more sense. That's a great line

364
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,480
Speaker 5: on that one, But I'm looking at I believe it's

365
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 5: the opener between the second fight between Naliang and Silvanna

366
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 5: Gomez Juarez. You can get that one at plus two

367
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 5: hundred to go the distance, and this is one hundred

368
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 5: and fifteen pound female fight. Like, I really just don't

369
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 5: understand this line at all. Both women have been finished

370
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,280
Speaker 5: in all of their UFC fights. Neither of them have

371
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 5: a finish though, so I'm not really sure how exactly,

372
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 5: you know, betting markets or sportsbooks think this one's going

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Speaker 5: to end so early. But Silvannah Huire seems to be

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Speaker 5: the better striker. She's got some knockout wins. Naliang has

375
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 5: some submission wins.

376
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Speaker 2: But they've both fought fairly low level competition.

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Speaker 5: I think the odds are better than not that this

378
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,960
Speaker 5: one cancels out to an extent when they're in at

379
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 5: least moderate level competition in each other. We've got the

380
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Speaker 5: big cage for the pay per view event one hundred

381
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 5: and fifteen pound women, This one shouldn't be plus two

382
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:08,479
Speaker 5: hundred to go the distance.

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Speaker 4: I also really like the over one and a half

384
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 4: there as well. I you know, maybe there's a late

385
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 4: finish here, but you rarely get an over one and

386
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 4: a half in a woman's fight, particularly a strawweight fight,

387
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 4: particularly a lower level strawweight fight, where maybe these girls

388
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,159
Speaker 4: are finish reliant, but I don't necessarily see it. I

389
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,520
Speaker 4: again would project this closer to the divisional average in

390
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 4: terms of the.

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Speaker 3: Line UFC two seventy five significant also from a DFS perspective,

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00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 3: Daily Fantasy because this event actually kickstarts the Draft Kings

393
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:49,160
Speaker 3: Fantasy Championship, so this week is the first round. Full disclosure,

394
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 3: I'm in Connecticut, so I don't get to pull up

395
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Speaker 3: the contest. So I turned this over to Billy and

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Speaker 3: he gives us his DFS breakdown. What do you have

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00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 3: for us, Billy?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm very excited for this one. I qualified for

399
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,680
Speaker 5: the champion all the way back in December, so it's

400
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,920
Speaker 5: been a real slow burn. We were never quite sure

401
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 5: exactly when they were going to start it off. But

402
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 5: I really like the format here. There's seventy qualifiers. The

403
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 5: first round of it is basically a cash game because

404
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 5: thirty of the seventy get through. So that's where my

405
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 5: head's at in terms of dfs this week. I'm really

406
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 5: just looking at the best cash plays. And it's an

407
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 5: interesting week for cash games because we have two five

408
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 5: round title fights. We have another assuming high action fight

409
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:27,360
Speaker 5: between Jang and Dradchick on the main card, and I'm

410
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 5: not quite sure that we can just stack all four

411
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,120
Speaker 5: title fighters on this one. That's baking two losses into

412
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:36,199
Speaker 5: your lineup automatically. And then we've seen such ridiculous stopajojs.

413
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 5: You know, Sean laid out the case or YEARI Glover,

414
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 5: so that one's pretty interesting. I think you're definitely gonna

415
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 5: want to just have one of those guys because whoever

416
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:43,600
Speaker 5: loses that.

417
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,679
Speaker 2: One probably has almost nothing in terms of score.

418
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 5: We also both were on you know, the Santo Chevchenko

419
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 5: fight to be a little bit closer than the betting lines,

420
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:51,439
Speaker 5: So that's where I'm going to.

421
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 2: Look to stack for my cash games. And then again,

422
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 2: you know.

423
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 5: We talked about young Jake Chick. She's fairly cheap, I

424
00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 5: think only seventy four hundred, seventy two hundred something like that,

425
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 5: and just giving the output in the volume that she

426
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 5: could put up over three rounds. That's, you know, my

427
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 5: Schanzerla special in terms of a female underdog with long

428
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,679
Speaker 5: stop of Jodds who's probably gonna at least give you

429
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 5: a decent score even in a losing performance.

430
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 2: Beyond that, it's pretty weak at the top end.

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Speaker 5: My favorite like nine thousand plus fighter is now off

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Speaker 5: the card and Manual cop so I think sing Win

433
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 5: Shoi has a decent odds or a decent path to

434
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 5: putting up a big score. He's really the only thing

435
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 5: I like at the top end.

436
00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,920
Speaker 2: In the middle. You know, Sean talked about Steve Garcia.

437
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 5: I also really like Jack della Madalina, who will get

438
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 5: to in a little bit. And then if you're going cheap,

439
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 5: we like Jacob malcoun. You know, Brendan Allen should be

440
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 5: able to get up a bunch of times if he

441
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 5: gets taken down. Could he rack up seven or eight

442
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,639
Speaker 5: takedowns giving himself a good score even in a loss.

443
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 5: I think that one's pretty likely. So I'm pretty much

444
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,639
Speaker 5: staying away from the GPPs this week. You guys are

445
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 5: on your own if you're trying to build those tournament lineups.

446
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 5: But that's what I'm looking for in terms of the

447
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 5: mostly cash game format of the championship round.

448
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 3: Very good showing any anything you want to weigh in

449
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 3: on before we go to best bets.

450
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 4: It's eleven fights, so you need to be unique. If

451
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 4: you are playing GPPs, maybe Santos against Shifchenko is a

452
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 4: way to get there. Would expect your chanco to be

453
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 4: extremely highly owned, but yeah, just try to be different

454
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 4: and definitely go contrarian this week if you're playing tournaments,

455
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 4: because you don't have too many options.

456
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,919
Speaker 5: And Santos can be in even the tournament optimal with

457
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 5: the loss here right, if it goes five rounds, then

458
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 5: she has good output, gets a takedown or two, some

459
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 5: control time against defense. If we don't see a lot

460
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 5: of underdogs put up big scores, that wouldn't shock me

461
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:28,239
Speaker 5: at all.

462
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 2: So I think she's a much better tournament player than

463
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: chef Chenko.

464
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 4: And I think this is a good card for underdogs.

465
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 4: You know, you could definitely take a shot with a

466
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 4: lot of these dogs. Maybe you don't even get close

467
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 4: to the maximum salary if you're playing a line up

468
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 4: and you want to be contrariy and just take a

469
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 4: bunch of dogs. Maybe one favorite and go completely contrarian here, Billy.

470
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 3: Of course, we wish you luck, I mean thank you.

471
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 3: We hope to check back in and you're moving on.

472
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 5: So yeah, I'll be tweeting out the link on Saturday

473
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 5: night if anyone wants to sweat it out with me

474
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 5: so we can all I'll dred that throughout the night.

475
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 3: Nice love that for you. All Right, let's go, Let's

476
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 3: go to best bets. We will start with Sean Zarillo.

477
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 4: Already laid out the case for the unders in the

478
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 4: main event, and of the bunch, the under two and

479
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 4: a half at minus one seventy I think is the

480
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 4: sweet spot. I stayed away from the under one and

481
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 4: a half. Maybe there's a tep and pace early, but

482
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 4: I don't see this fight going over halfway. Both guys

483
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 4: very vulnerable defensively. Either it could get knocked out. Glover

484
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 4: definitely has a high probability of his submission as well

485
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 4: or a technical knockout on the ground positional TKO. So

486
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 4: definitely love the unders in the main event amongst my

487
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 4: biggest bets of the year. With the unders in the

488
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,880
Speaker 4: Gatol of Aer fights, the under two and a half

489
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 4: at minus one seventy is the play.

490
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 2: All right.

491
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 3: Speaking of dogs and getting some some plus money, we've

492
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,679
Speaker 3: done that quite a bit on this episode today on

493
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast UFC two to seventy five. Billy,

494
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: you've got some plus money for your best bet?

495
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:53,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, just slightly.

496
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 5: Here I'm looking at Jake Matthews at plus one twenty five.

497
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 5: He's fighting hundred at Fiallo in Fiallo.

498
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 2: This is his fourth fight already in twenty twenty two.

499
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 5: You know, Brendan mentioned it earlier. This fight's in Singapore.

500
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 5: He's been traveling all over the place, and I think

501
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 5: staying busy to an extent is probably a good thing

502
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 5: for MMAY fighters. But you know, it's when you're between

503
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 5: fights and when you have those long layoffs and training

504
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 5: camps is when fighters really get better. I think this

505
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 5: is going to start to catch up to Fiallo at

506
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 5: a certain point. Like four fights in six months is

507
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 5: just an insane pace. And it's also a tough matchup.

508
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 5: You know, Jake Matthews probably has all the grappling upside here.

509
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 5: He's getting about two takedowns for fifteen minutes. Fiallo is

510
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 5: just going to come out and swing and try to

511
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 5: put you away early. Fiallo doesn't have great striking defense,

512
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 5: so I think it's pretty close to a coin flip

513
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 5: in terms of the stand up, although Fiallo is the

514
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 5: better power. But if Matthews is smart, he's just gonna

515
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 5: put him on his back, do some damage on the

516
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 5: ground hunt for submissions, which he's.

517
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: Done pretty well in the past.

518
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 5: So plus one twenty five i'd have this fighters about

519
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 5: a coin flip, or honestly, maybe even Matthews is a

520
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 5: slight favorite, so plus one twenty five is a good

521
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 5: value on him.

522
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, Fialla is such a headhunter to very one dimensional.

523
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 4: He doesn't throw any kicks, So if Jakes is very

524
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: smart about game planning, I could definitely see him as

525
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 4: the favorite. He's just mentioned that he could. He thinks

526
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 4: he could take Fiallo out on the feet.

527
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 2: I don't know.

528
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 4: Jake Matthews is a weird guy. He's a bit new

529
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 4: to le trains with a small gem like. He makes

530
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 4: me nervous. But I would certainly lean Matthews if I

531
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 4: was picking a side in that fight.

532
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 5: You and you always just hope that that's just fighters

533
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 5: talking just to talk, because like you have to say that,

534
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 5: like I've never you know, I've had some interviews and stuff.

535
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 5: I'm not going to go, oh well, I'm just going

536
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 5: to try to take him down and make this boring,

537
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 5: like you can't say that ahead of a flight. So

538
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 5: hopefully it's just running his mouth and that's not really

539
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 5: the plan. But you know, if it is, he'll be.

540
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 2: It all right.

541
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 3: Looking forward to it, gents, UFC two seventy five, Saturday

542
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 3: Night in Singapore at the Singapore Indoor Stadium. Looking forward

543
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,360
Speaker 3: to it for Action Network Senior writer Sean Zarello again

544
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 3: former pro MMA Fighter, our MMA Analystic, Action Network Billy Ward,

545
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 3: Brendan glass Sheeen. We come to you every Friday, of course,

546
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 3: when there is an event to preview. Every Friday here

547
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 3: on the Action Network Podcast. Best of luck with all

548
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 3: of your bets and your picks, folks. We'll join you

549
00:23:55,480 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 3: again next time. Thanks for tuning in, and don't then

550
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 3: Sai