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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's

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Speaker 1: time to place your bets for the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby. That's right, we're heading to Church Hill down

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Speaker 1: to wager on some ponies.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and today.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined by one of the top horse racing handicappers

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Speaker 1: in the business. He's the host of Ready Set Bet

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Speaker 1: and the host of the Magic Mic Show. He's Mike Samich. Mike,

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Speaker 1: thanks for joining us today. Man, how are you just

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Speaker 1: days away from arguably the biggest event in horse racing.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I'm doing great. I am doing great. I gotta

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Speaker 3: say it's kind of like the Super Bowl. I feel

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Speaker 3: like I've talked about it enough. I am ready for

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Speaker 3: this test for the gates of Spring Open.

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Speaker 2: Seth.

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Speaker 3: It's two minutes, but it's literally weeks of content that

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Speaker 3: lead up to it.

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Speaker 2: I've been talking about this Derby for the last six weeks.

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Speaker 3: One of the things I love is following the road

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Speaker 3: up to the Triple Crown and watching these horses go

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Speaker 3: through the process of running against each other and trying

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Speaker 3: to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. I like to say

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Speaker 3: it's similar to March Madness in a way, where in

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Speaker 3: March Madness you've got these different conferences that all qualify

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Speaker 3: for the tournaments, and this year everyone thought the SEC

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Speaker 3: was your best conference, and so they had a lot

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Speaker 3: of SEC teams into.

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Speaker 2: Their final four.

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Speaker 3: What's similar in horse racing, where you've got different circuits

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Speaker 3: that horses qualify for through through to get to the

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Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby. And I believe you can kind of base

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Speaker 3: your betting and your tickets based on what circuits you

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Speaker 3: believe had the best horses throughout the process. It's one

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Speaker 3: of the reasons why I really enjoy watching the run

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Speaker 3: up to the Derby, not just the Derby itself.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, I'm excited to having that big brain of

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Speaker 1: yours and get some picks from you. And before we

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Speaker 1: jump into the program, I wanted to first shout out

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Speaker 1: everyone who's watching and listening. If you're joining us on

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel, please give this video a

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Speaker 1: thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content and

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Speaker 1: subscribe if you're new and all right, let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and dive in, starting with post positions and what they mean. Mike,

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Speaker 1: can you please explain to the audience, how certain gates

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Speaker 1: help or hurt historically when it comes to the derby,

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Speaker 1: and how they might impact your betting card this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, of course.

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Speaker 3: So first off, we don't have any other race in

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Speaker 3: America that's gonna have twenty horses, so look out of

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Speaker 3: the gate. The twenty horse factor makes a huge difference.

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Speaker 3: It's much harder to get a clean trip. It's much

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Speaker 3: easier for a fast pace to develop because you have

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Speaker 3: more horses that are likely to want the front. And

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Speaker 3: you also have a situation with the start where when

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Speaker 3: you have horses that are lined up in twenty in

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Speaker 3: a row and they're all trained to get to the rail.

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Speaker 3: That's what they train them to do during workouts is

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Speaker 3: make sure you save ground, make sure you get to

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Speaker 3: the rail. The horses in the fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen,

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Speaker 3: nineteen and twenty they all want to pinch inside and

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Speaker 3: get to the rail as quickly as possible. That makes

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Speaker 3: it an absolute death trap when you are on the

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Speaker 3: rail because you have nineteen horses that want to come

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Speaker 3: right in and bump the off there and take the

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Speaker 3: rail themselves. So the inside posts have done very poorly

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Speaker 3: traditionally in the Kentucky Derby. Now, last year we saw

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Speaker 3: Mystic Dan win from the three post. He was a closer,

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Speaker 3: so he came from off the pace. And if you're

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Speaker 3: a closer and you were on the inside, it's not

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Speaker 3: as bad because your whole plan is I'm gonna drop

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Speaker 3: back to the back of the pack and then just

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Speaker 3: make one run anyway, Well, that doesn't affect you as

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Speaker 3: much if you're going to get pinched back at the start,

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Speaker 3: as we would if you are a speed horse, someone

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Speaker 3: who wants to be forwardly placed. And this this year

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Speaker 3: we caught basically a perfect storm here of speed horses

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Speaker 3: and where they drew to set up a very very

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Speaker 3: fast pace in the Kentucky Derby. So the one horse,

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Speaker 3: the two horse, the four horse, the five horse, they

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Speaker 3: all want to go, they all want the front. We've

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Speaker 3: seen Citizen Bull to one consistently go forward. Neo Equo's

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Speaker 3: the two. He wants to run fast, early and set

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Speaker 3: up position. The five American Promise has some of the

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Speaker 3: fastest workouts we've seen from an early pace horse. He

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Speaker 3: went twenty two to forty five, which for non horse

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Speaker 3: racing people is about two seconds faster and three seconds

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Speaker 3: faster than you expect in a workout, and then to

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Speaker 3: top it off, all the way out in the twenty

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Speaker 3: zero and al Mighty has also been the connections have

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Speaker 3: also said that he wants to be in the front.

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Speaker 3: So you've got this situation, we've got speed on the

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Speaker 3: inside and speed on the outside. When you have that

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Speaker 3: specific situation in a race, you're going to see extremely

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Speaker 3: fast paced because if you're on the inside and you

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Speaker 3: want to be speed, you have to make sure you

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Speaker 3: clear the field. If you're on the outside and you

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Speaker 3: want to be in front, you have to clear the field.

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Speaker 3: And all of a sudden, you've got horses with their

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Speaker 3: hair on fire inside and outside, and it's just going

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Speaker 3: to set up for a crazy fast pace.

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Speaker 2: This year's running the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so does this mean are there any big name

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Speaker 1: horses in key slots that you're either fading or backing

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Speaker 1: this weekend specifically?

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Speaker 3: Well, first off, it's bad news if you like any

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Speaker 3: of those speed horses.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: So, the number one horse, Citizen Bull, who won the Breeders'

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Speaker 3: Cup Juvenile last year as the champion two year old,

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Speaker 3: who is considered one of the best in this class,

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Speaker 3: isn't an awful spot on that rail in the one post,

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Speaker 3: and so he's a horse that I don't really want

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Speaker 3: any part of the favorite here Journalism, the number eight

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Speaker 3: is the most desired spot in the entire gate. It's

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Speaker 3: a situation where you can kind of decide the trip

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Speaker 3: that you want to make. You're able to be forwardly

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Speaker 3: placed if you want to, and specifically for journalism, and

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Speaker 3: his style is to sit in the middle of the

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Speaker 3: group and then make one run on the far turn.

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Speaker 3: It's perfect for him because you've got speed on the

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Speaker 3: inside with four different horses, and the other three horses

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Speaker 3: want to drop way back, which means that he gets

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Speaker 3: to just kind of coast over to the rail in

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Speaker 3: between those two groups and then make his trip however

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Speaker 3: he wants to see it.

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Speaker 2: One of the favorites.

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Speaker 3: The seventeen Sandman is in the only post position that

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Speaker 3: is yet to win a Kentucky Derby. So the seventeen post,

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Speaker 3: oh for lifetime, the Kentucky Derby and then Sandman right

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Speaker 3: now your second choice in the betting. People will talk

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Speaker 3: about that. So I'm a numbers guy, right, It's more variance.

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Speaker 3: We just don't have enough races with seventeen posts in

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Speaker 3: it yet versus necessarily being a curse post. There's not

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Speaker 3: a reason the post is cursed if you look to

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Speaker 3: the post inside and outside of it. The percentages aren't great,

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Speaker 3: but the sixteen post is one seven point seven percent

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Speaker 3: of the time. The eighteen post is one five point

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Speaker 3: four percent of the time. So it's not a death

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Speaker 3: trap there. It's just a kind of anomaly that the

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Speaker 3: seventeen has yet to win. But that will be something

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Speaker 3: you're going to hear quite a bit leading up to

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Speaker 3: this Kentucky Derby because Sandman is posted in there, and

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Speaker 3: sad Man an interesting story and of himself here owned

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Speaker 3: by Griffin Johnson, who I did not know who this

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Speaker 3: was three weeks ago, but he has over three million

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Speaker 3: followers across social media. Wow, so you're going to see

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Speaker 3: a big push from his followers betting the horse named

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Speaker 3: after a Metallica song. Metallica has sent t shirts to

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Speaker 3: the barn. We've already had a visit from Mariano Rivera

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Speaker 3: to the barn. This is going to be your public horse.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's gonna betting this horse because of the name, because

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Speaker 3: of the following, and because of the band. You're gonna

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Speaker 3: hear a lot about that seventeen post never winning and

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Speaker 3: can Sam Man break that curse. The other horse that

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Speaker 3: I thought that drew exceptionally well was the number ten horse, Grande. Okay,

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Speaker 3: there are of the horses that kind of want to stalk,

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Speaker 3: and so that's a stalking is like what I mentioned

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Speaker 3: with journalism. A horse that isn't super fast early, but

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Speaker 3: is it really slow either wants to kind of sit

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Speaker 3: in the middle of the pack. This race doesn't have

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Speaker 3: a lot of stalkers, and generally stalkers are the horses

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Speaker 3: that have the most success in the Kentucky Derby, because

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Speaker 3: if you're on the front end, you're going too fast

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Speaker 3: to be able to hold on late and if you're

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Speaker 3: all the way in the back, you've got to pass

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Speaker 3: nineteen horses and hope you don't get any traffic trouble,

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Speaker 3: get stopped, get pinched, A bunch of things could go wrong.

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Speaker 3: Grande to me is the other stalker in this race,

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Speaker 3: the horse that wants to sit in the middle of

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Speaker 3: the pack. Ten post a very good draw for that

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Speaker 3: specific style of trip, and the price is right right now,

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Speaker 3: you getting twenty to one on Grande. So I'll find

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Speaker 3: that price at all.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Before we keep it moving, I wanted to remind

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Speaker 1: y'all to please download the free Betting Pros app for

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Speaker 1: iOS and Android. With sportsbook Sinc. You can automatically track

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Speaker 1: your bets across all major sports books in one spot.

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Speaker 1: Easily monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type,

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Speaker 1: including game picks, props, and parlays. Create custom betting systems

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Speaker 1: to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. Get a free

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Speaker 1: trial of the Betting Pros Premium by downloading the app

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash apps and activating your trial

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Speaker 1: on the upgrade screen. All right, let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: move into the odds. I wanted to start by discussing

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Speaker 1: if there are any obvious overlays in your eyes that

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Speaker 1: you see value in or underlays that you're avoiding this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there are a couple. The first one

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Speaker 3: which we got to just just talk about. We talked

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Speaker 3: about Sam Man a little bit in the last segment

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Speaker 3: because he's the public horse.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna get over bet. I mean, it's just okay

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Speaker 2: of knows it.

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Speaker 3: He was if you look at future pools two three,

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Speaker 3: weeks ago he was nine to one ten to one

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Speaker 3: in those pools. His morning line was six to one.

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Speaker 3: The Beauty of the Kentucky Derby. They open a pair

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Speaker 3: of mutual market. So horse racing is paramutual, so the

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Speaker 3: more money that comes in, the odds are going to fluctuate.

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Speaker 3: So if one horse gets bet a lot, it's oh

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Speaker 3: real quick. In sports betting, if you get someone at

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Speaker 3: plus three and a half, no matter what happens after that,

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Speaker 3: you have plus three and a half. Yes, when you're

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Speaker 3: betting on horses, Because it's a paramutual market, the odds

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Speaker 3: will fluctuate right up to the time that the race

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Speaker 3: goes off. And if a horse that you bet when

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Speaker 3: they're four to one, well if everyone else bets them,

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Speaker 3: they're going to go down to three to one or

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Speaker 3: two to one. Because in horse racing, the race track

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Speaker 3: takes fifteen percent of the money and then distributes the

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Speaker 3: rest amongst the winning tickets, So the price can change

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Speaker 3: based on how much money is bet on each horse.

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Speaker 3: So when you have a horse like Samman and you've

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Speaker 3: got three million social media followers, and you've got a

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Speaker 3: huge rock band that's behind this horse, and you've got

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Speaker 3: the Yankees that have embraced the horse. You're going to

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Speaker 3: get a lot of peop people that only bet one

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Speaker 3: race a year come and bet Sandman. And I've been

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Speaker 3: talking about it for about a week and a half

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Speaker 3: two weeks now that if you want to bet him,

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Speaker 3: you should be betting him in fixed market odds where

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Speaker 3: you can get him. You could get him, said Caesar's

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Speaker 3: at Circa at a couple online books as well, around

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Speaker 3: that eight to ten to one point. Well, not surprisingly,

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Speaker 3: he's nine to two right now in the market. Journalism

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Speaker 3: your favorite at four to one, but Salamon bet all

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Speaker 3: the way down to nine to two and ultra talented horse.

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Speaker 3: I think he is a reasonable horse that can win

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Speaker 3: the race. He should be like twelve to one. That's

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Speaker 3: the problem because it is way too short of a

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Speaker 3: price to back Salmon at this point, very goofy horse.

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Speaker 3: If you go back and you watch his winning the

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Speaker 3: Arkansas Derby, he can't run straight down the stretch. He

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Speaker 3: just struggles mentally with how to race. And you're not

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Speaker 3: mature enough yet, and you have very mature horses that

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Speaker 3: he's running against.

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Speaker 2: He also wants to come from the back of the pack.

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Speaker 3: I think the pace does set up well for him

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Speaker 3: to do so, but I'm not sure he's mentally there

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Speaker 3: to be able to weave through the traffic that he

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Speaker 3: needs to be able to get to the front. And

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Speaker 3: the main beneficiary of all this money that we're seeing

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Speaker 3: coming in on Samman is the horse right to his

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Speaker 3: outside in sovereignty, who it was eight to one on

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Speaker 3: the morning line, was five or six to one in

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Speaker 3: future pools when you look back two three weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: sitting on the board at thirteen to one right now

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Speaker 3: as we look before this, and he was a horse

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Speaker 3: that won the Fountain of Youth down in Gulf Stream Park,

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Speaker 3: ran second in the Florida's Derby to pond Street, who

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Speaker 3: unfortunately got injured a couple of weeks ago. So to

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Speaker 3: pont Street not in the race. He has a awesome

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Speaker 3: turn of foot, which means that he can just gobble

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Speaker 3: up ground late when he switches into high gear. This

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Speaker 3: Churchill Down stretch has a very very long It favors

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Speaker 3: horses that are able to do that. He's actually won

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Speaker 3: over this trace track. So during his two year old

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Speaker 3: campaign he won the Grade three street cents at Churchill Downs.

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Speaker 3: He actually beat Samman in that race. Oh wow, I

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Speaker 3: love the price here at twelve thirteen to one. I

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Speaker 3: think that that Sovereignty is should be your second pick

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Speaker 3: in this race. It should be Journalism somewhere around that

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Speaker 3: seven to two four to one range, and then Sovereignty

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Speaker 3: should be six to one. And then you have that

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Speaker 3: Sandman number up there that should be in that ten

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Speaker 3: twelve to one range. And because of the fanfare around

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Speaker 3: sand Man, you're seeing that flip. The other horse that

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Speaker 3: I believe is getting over bed at this point is

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Speaker 3: Luxer Cafe. Last year we had a horse named Forever

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Speaker 3: Young that was a Japanese horse that came in ran

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Speaker 3: very well in the Kentucky Derby, ended up running third

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Speaker 3: in the race. Everyone expects a Japanese horse to be

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Speaker 3: able to win this race eventually, and I agree with them,

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Speaker 3: it will happen at some interesting Luxer Cafe is not

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Speaker 3: Forever Young. This isn't that that, okay, right? This is

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Speaker 3: a notch below what we've seen in the past from

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Speaker 3: some of these Japanese horses. Luxer Cafe was fifteen to

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Speaker 3: one early in the week. He was twelve to one

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Speaker 3: on the morning line, be bet down to an eight

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Speaker 3: nine to one. I got no interest in luxer cafe

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Speaker 3: at anything lower than twenty to one.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to your unit allocation that it sounds

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Speaker 1: like journalism probably on your card at around that four

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Speaker 1: to one mark, and then you're obviously taking a shot

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Speaker 1: on sovereignty. It sounds as well, how are you kind

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Speaker 1: of mixing this up with your unit allocation including them

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Speaker 1: in and maybe some potential long shots that we're getting

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Speaker 1: into later. How are you kind of diving this up, Mike?

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Speaker 3: So the beauty of the Kentucky Derby or there are

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Speaker 3: so many ways to bet it right?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, everyone loves the win bet. I agree.

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Speaker 3: If I wouldn't bet journalism to win. If you're sitting

292
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Speaker 3: there and you're staring at seven to two, right, quar

293
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,079
Speaker 3: to one starts to get a little bit interesting. I

294
00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 3: would rather play exactas with journalism on top. An EXACTA

295
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Speaker 3: is a first place finish in front of the second

296
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Speaker 3: place finisher in the exact order. That's the EXACTA and

297
00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:28,880
Speaker 3: you can get a bigger payout when you're looking at that.

298
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Speaker 3: So like play journalism and that's the number eight horse,

299
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Speaker 3: so it'd be eight with and then so eight has

300
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,319
Speaker 3: to win with the ten, which is Grande the fourteenth,

301
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Speaker 3: Testastic in the eighteen, Sovereignty, and then if Journalism wins

302
00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,720
Speaker 3: and one of those three horses run second, instead of

303
00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,040
Speaker 3: four to one, you're getting thirty five to one, which

304
00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,040
Speaker 3: I'm much more interested in. A twenty horse race is

305
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,680
Speaker 3: looking for those bigger prices. If I want to bet

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Speaker 3: to win in this race, Sovereignty is gonna make my ticket.

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Speaker 2: I think Okay makes a.

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00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,880
Speaker 3: Ton of sense, especially if we stick around that twelve

309
00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,920
Speaker 3: thirteen to one price. So I'm gonna betting Sovereignty to

310
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,320
Speaker 3: and then Grande the ten and Testastic the fourteen are

311
00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,120
Speaker 3: the long shots that I think have a very good

312
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,800
Speaker 3: chance at winning. Grande is a very lightly raced horse.

313
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,199
Speaker 3: He's only run three times before. This is going to

314
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,880
Speaker 3: be his fourth start. He ran in two maiden special

315
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,000
Speaker 3: weight race. He ran in a maiden special right race,

316
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,719
Speaker 3: broke his maiden, so that means that maidens the horses that.

317
00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:19,920
Speaker 2: Have never won a race before.

318
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,560
Speaker 3: Okay ran against a bunch of non winners, won that race,

319
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,839
Speaker 3: stepped up, went into Allowance Company, won that race, then

320
00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,480
Speaker 3: jumped up into graded stakes Company. Graded steaks is the

321
00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,200
Speaker 3: highest level you can run in horse racing, and he was.

322
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,600
Speaker 3: He ran second to Rodriguez in a race that did

323
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,200
Speaker 3: not have any pace, and he was stuck wide the

324
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,480
Speaker 3: entire time, so he got a bad trip and the

325
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 3: horse at won Rodriguez got a good trip. Well, now

326
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,480
Speaker 3: he gets a race where you're going to have a

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Speaker 3: ton of pace. He drew very well and you're getting

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Speaker 3: a nice price. So Grande at twenty one to one

329
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:50,200
Speaker 3: is definitely what I'm interested. And then Testastic I was

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00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,840
Speaker 3: actually lower on this horse about two weeks ago. And

331
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 3: the more I've watched the Louisiana Derby, the more I'm

332
00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,959
Speaker 3: impressed with his athleticism, which isn't something you hear people

333
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 3: talk about a horse all that often being sure athletic course.

334
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 3: But if you go back and you watch Kentucky Derby,

335
00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 3: we're mage one at fifteen to one. He was able

336
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 3: to beat other horses two holes, able to change gears

337
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,960
Speaker 3: very quickly, speed up and slow down, but not actually

338
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: lose any ground while doing so. And it's kind of

339
00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 3: like if you think about a car race, there are

340
00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:19,640
Speaker 3: two cars going for the same hole, whichever one is

341
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 3: able to kind of notice it, accelerate and get into

342
00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 3: that hole first.

343
00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 2: Gets the spot.

344
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 3: It's the same thing with the Kentucky Derby when you're

345
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 3: talking about closers, because there's gonna be multiple horses competing

346
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 3: for the same spot, and whoever wins that spot on

347
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,960
Speaker 3: the backstretch may very well end up winning the race

348
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 3: because of the difference in the trip they get. T

349
00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,920
Speaker 3: Tastic has the athleticism to be able to win those spots,

350
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,960
Speaker 3: and so he's been one horse that's kind of moved

351
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,120
Speaker 3: up my board. That's the number fourteen horse, twenty to

352
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 3: one on the morning line. Last I looked, he was

353
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,320
Speaker 3: right around eighteen to one in the live market. So

354
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 3: he's another one that I would consider from a win perspective.

355
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,720
Speaker 1: Okay, we've talked about exotics a little bit here. I

356
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,160
Speaker 1: know you have some exactas potentially with journalism in there.

357
00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,200
Speaker 1: Is there anything else from a trifectas a winplay show

358
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,840
Speaker 1: standpoint that you're interested it or at least have some

359
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 1: leans early in the week.

360
00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 3: So I love betting this race because of the upside

361
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 3: of it, and I am going to play some trifectas,

362
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 3: so I will play. What I like to do is

363
00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,040
Speaker 3: you're gonna hear a lot of people talk about boxing

364
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 3: So when you box a trifecta, it means that you

365
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,160
Speaker 3: pick three horses and those horses can run first, second,

366
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,480
Speaker 3: and third in any order. That cost you six dollars

367
00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,000
Speaker 3: to bet, because there's six different combinations of those three numbers.

368
00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 3: I like to pick horses to put. It's called keying

369
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 3: them in specific spots. So, for instance, if you really

370
00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 3: like journalism and you don't want to bet the four

371
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 3: to one to win, you can put him in that

372
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:40,080
Speaker 3: first position in a trifecta, and then put three or

373
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,440
Speaker 3: four horses in second and three or four horses in

374
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,240
Speaker 3: third and be able to put more long shots underneath

375
00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,880
Speaker 3: where they're more likely to finish than on top, and

376
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:49,840
Speaker 3: be able to have a chance of hitting a bigger

377
00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 3: number ticket. I'm going to play a couple trifectas, and

378
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,080
Speaker 3: I'm going to focus on Grande and sovereignty on top.

379
00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:57,920
Speaker 3: I'm gonna see if i can create a big time

380
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,640
Speaker 3: value in the trifecta. So I'll play ten eighteen with

381
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,160
Speaker 3: eight ten fourteen eighteen with eight ten fourteen eighteen. That'll

382
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,240
Speaker 3: cost you twelve dollars for a dollar if you want

383
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,800
Speaker 3: to play it, and I'll be trying to build out

384
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 3: the trifectas for more of a big score versus looking

385
00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 3: for something with the favorite on top. In journalism, the superfecta,

386
00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 3: which is something you got to talk about in the

387
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 3: Kentucky Derby, average payout over the last ten years is

388
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 3: fifty one thousand dollars one dollar bet, so huge, huge money. Now,

389
00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 3: there was a three hundred and twenty one thousand dollars

390
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 3: super in there the year Rich strike one at eighty

391
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 3: to one paid one hundred and sixty dollars to win,

392
00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 3: So that's it. We'll call it an anomaly. But even

393
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,680
Speaker 3: if you take that year out, this is still averaged

394
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 3: over ten thousand dollars a year over the nine prior year,

395
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: so very very profitable bet if you're able to hit it.

396
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 3: It's kind of the holy grail of horse racing. Handicapping

397
00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:50,280
Speaker 3: is trying to find a way to get to this superfecta.

398
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 3: I'm going to be putting journalism on top and some

399
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 3: of my superfectas because I do think he is your

400
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 3: most likely winner. But then it allows you to play

401
00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 3: a lot of different horses underneath, horses like the three

402
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,760
Speaker 3: horse who we haven't even talked about. Final gambit, who

403
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 3: is going to be able to come from way out

404
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 3: of it and is a big price at thirty to

405
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,760
Speaker 3: one on the morning line. Horses like Publisher the thirteen,

406
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,359
Speaker 3: who has yet to win a race but has consistently

407
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 3: run well against the rest of this field.

408
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 2: I like him at a price as well.

409
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,280
Speaker 3: So the super Effect there's gonna be another bet that

410
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,920
Speaker 3: I'm very interested in trying to go big with and

411
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,639
Speaker 3: see if we can hit one monster ticket.

412
00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:23,640
Speaker 2: Awesome. That sounds great.

413
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 1: That'd be a great payday for someone if they can

414
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 1: hit that. Before we round out the program, I did

415
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 1: want to remind everyone about amazing offer we have from

416
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,160
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417
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418
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,600
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419
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 1: just go to bettingpros dot com slash three six five

420
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 1: and deposit at least ten dollars. If you place a

421
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:46,640
Speaker 1: bet of at least five dollars, you're going to earn

422
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,439
Speaker 1: yourself one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Again,

423
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,840
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424
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 1: plus only must be president in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana,

425
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 1: North carolin on a New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia

426
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 1: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

427
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 1: hundred bets off. If you live in Iowa, terms and

428
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,399
Speaker 1: conditions do apply, Mike, anything left in the holster for you,

429
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 1: any Yolo tickets and anything that. Hey, maybe we should

430
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 1: just consider a little sprinkle on this as we head

431
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 1: into the weekend.

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00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 3: So I would be remiss if I did not mention

433
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 3: the number twenty one biasay, it's currently not in the race,

434
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 3: also eligible, right, and so that someone has to scratch

435
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 3: out of the one through twenty and if that horse scratches,

436
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 3: then Bieza gets to run in the race. Beeza ran

437
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 3: second to journalism was four to one in your favorite

438
00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 3: right now in this race in the Sanitita Derby. So

439
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 3: very good horse very much fits in everything. If Beeza

440
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 3: draws in, I'm using this horse pretty much everywhere. I

441
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 3: think this is another one that has a shot at winning.

442
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 2: Right now.

443
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 3: The morning line was twelve to one right now in

444
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,919
Speaker 3: like the live pools, you're seeing as high as fifty

445
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 3: to one which would not actually stick if the horse

446
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,399
Speaker 3: gets into the market. Okay, because once people realize the

447
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 3: twenty one isrunning, Bias is running, you're going to see

448
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 3: money come in. But Baza deserves to be somewhere in

449
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 3: that ten to one range, and it should be, in

450
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 3: my mind, the third choice in the race, behind sovereign journalism,

451
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,679
Speaker 3: sovereignty in sovereignty. So if Baeza draws in, pay attention

452
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 3: to the twenty one. Do not let that horse just

453
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 3: kind of slide by the wayside Yolo wise, if you're

454
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:21,640
Speaker 3: gonna yolo, you got.

455
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:22,960
Speaker 2: Yolo on the Superfecta set.

456
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 3: That's that's the okay that you go And you're like,

457
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 3: I'm going crazy here, right, So I wrote an article

458
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 3: for visen dot com. It's got three separate superfectas up there.

459
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 3: The super effected that I'm going to play myself is

460
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,919
Speaker 3: a medium budget level superfecta. So this is eighty one

461
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:37,840
Speaker 3: bucks if you want.

462
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 2: To bet it.

463
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 3: Okay, it's eight ten eighteen with eight ten fourteen eighteen,

464
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 3: with three eight ten fourteen eighteen with three eight ten

465
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 3: fourteen eighteen. So that means that the eight ten or

466
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 3: eighteen have to win the race. Then eight ten fourteen

467
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 3: or eighteen run second, and so on and so forth

468
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 3: through the ticket. If you want to go hard yolo

469
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 3: and you're not looking to spend eighty one bucks in

470
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 3: the dirt, you totally get it. Thirty six dollars and

471
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 3: this one will pay. We'll go at least five thousand

472
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 3: dollars if it hits ten fourteen. So either the ten,

473
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 3: either the ten grande or the fourteen tiest tastic would

474
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 3: have to win with three ten fourteen eighteen, with three

475
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 3: eight ten fourteen eighteen, with three eight ten fourteen eighteen.

476
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 3: And so if you're if you're on your your ad

477
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 3: w whatever one you use, you go in and you

478
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 3: put when I say with that means you switch from

479
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 3: the first column to the second column and then again

480
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 3: second column, the third column, the fourth column. In that

481
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 3: super effective betting so that you're able to bet the races.

482
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 2: And it's it's.

483
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 3: A very very daunting thing sometimes if you're coming in,

484
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 3: you're betting horse racing for the first time, and it

485
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,159
Speaker 3: can be that the lingo can be tough for people.

486
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 3: But if you have any questions, Samabam eighteen on Twitter

487
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 3: happy to answer questions for people out there as well,

488
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 3: I'd love to try and get people more involved in

489
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 3: horse racing. I find it fascinating from a puzzle perspective.

490
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 3: You try and solve a puzzle every thirty minutes, and

491
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 3: you do it with live animals with people on their back.

492
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: It's quite the rush I.

493
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 1: Can absolutely imagine. And I go to a Kentucky Derby

494
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 1: party up in my friend's house every year and it's

495
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 1: a lot of fun. So I hope more people continue

496
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: to learn about this great market and get invested with it. Mike,

497
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Can you tell us,

498
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: in addition to your Twitter, how we can best find

499
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: and support your content moving forward?

500
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: My friend? Yeah, of course.

501
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 3: So the Magic Mike Show for Racing Dudes dot Com,

502
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 3: we do a pick five sequence and we talk about

503
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 3: how we handicap try and help teach people there as

504
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,199
Speaker 3: well as talk about ticket structure and who we like

505
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 3: in the races. That's every Thursday at one pm Pacific,

506
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 3: four pm Eastern. Then Vson I'm on Ready Step I

507
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 3: host Ready Step Bet every weekend. That's from ten am

508
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 3: to one pm Pacific, one to four Eastern. You can

509
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 3: also find Vson at the Track, which is going to

510
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 3: be every which is every Friday at eleven fifteen am

511
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 3: two fifteen Eastern for an hour live over at vson Live.

512
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 3: And then this Saturday, if you're ready to check out

513
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 3: the Kentucky deary ready to dive into horse racing further,

514
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 3: you can find me over on the VS Improper channel,

515
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 3: which you can find on YouTube TV, on Roku all

516
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,719
Speaker 3: over the place, as well as Channel one fifty eight

517
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 3: on Series XM and Mad Dog Radio on Series XM.

518
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 3: From four to eight Eastern, we'll be talking about all

519
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: of the Game sevens in the playoffs.

520
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 2: As well as awesome.

521
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: The horse racing that content leading up there, We've got

522
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 3: four races that we're covering from the undercard and then

523
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 3: the Kentucky Derby itself.

524
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 1: Fantastic, my friend, Well, good luck to you this weekend.

525
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: That is going to do it for us today on

526
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros Podcast. Thanks so much for watching. Be

527
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 1: sure to give this video a like if you enjoyed it. Also,

528
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 1: if you're new, make sure you're subscribing to the Betting

529
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel, and don't forget to download the BP

530
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 1: app and sink your sportsbooks today. For Mike Samich, I'm

531
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: Sethblcock take care of y'all.

532
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

533
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

534
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

535
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

536
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

537
00:22:55,240 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros

538
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 3: To build sp