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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day

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Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and

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Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We talked

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Speaker 1: to someone more conceptual and just as wonderful. Peter Sheer

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Speaker 1: Joints said of a macro strategy at Academy Securities. As

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Speaker 1: John mentioned, there's no visibility. Peter share, how do you

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Speaker 1: get out beyond labor day?

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Speaker 2: And I think it's difficult. We've got to get through

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Speaker 2: the summer jobs numbers. I think we're going to see

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Speaker 2: some headwinds on the job numbers. I actually think we're

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Speaker 2: going to see some deflationary pressure, so that's going to

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Speaker 2: kick in. I think, you know, into the fall. Right now,

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Speaker 2: it's all about earning, so for I think they'll come

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Speaker 2: and find I think we're going to see those rotation

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Speaker 2: where the laggers get bought. Part of it driven by

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Speaker 2: some of the index rebalancing that's going to go on

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Speaker 2: on Friday. But partly I think people are finally seeing

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Speaker 2: this trade work. So you want to own the rustle

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Speaker 2: two thousand, you want to own the laggards, and I

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Speaker 2: think you're going to see some underperformance. So I think

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Speaker 2: that's the trade for August and September. It's going to

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Speaker 2: be unclear.

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Speaker 1: The unclear of it all redounce to nominal GDP is

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Speaker 1: statistic for real GDP plus the inflation overlay on top

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Speaker 1: of it. Are you constructive that the machine can continue

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Speaker 1: to develop four percent nominal GDP per year?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we can get to the four percent

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Speaker 2: nominal GDP. But if we're an interest rates are at

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Speaker 2: five and a quorter, the Fed's going to have to

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Speaker 2: do something right. I think we do not want real

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Speaker 2: rates above one percent. So if we start seeing nominal

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Speaker 2: GDP tick down, and I think it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a function of slower overall GDP and less inflation, that's

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Speaker 2: what's going to try and to drive the Fed's decision

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Speaker 2: into latet into late this year early next year. Though

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Speaker 2: for the next three to four months, I really think

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Speaker 2: the Feds a non factor. They'll hike in July and

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Speaker 2: then that's about it.

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Speaker 3: Let's stand that sweet spot next three months. Let's work

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Speaker 3: through that together. Pete, you've shifted away then to the

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Speaker 3: equal way I believe in the market. Can't wait at

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Speaker 3: call on the s and P five hundred, pet What

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Speaker 3: changed for you that ultimately got your ranted a view

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Speaker 3: that this can broaden out?

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Speaker 2: You know, I think for the last little while, you're

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Speaker 2: starting to see some of the leaders not do quite

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Speaker 2: as well, and you're starting to see the story broaden. Right,

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Speaker 2: if we are going to get some sort of a

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Speaker 2: soft landing or some sort of period that's not imminent recession,

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Speaker 2: I think those laggards have to be bought. That's where

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Speaker 2: people are going to look. That's where the value is.

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Speaker 2: And even on conceptually AI, right, if AI is really

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Speaker 2: going to work, it's going to work for individual companies

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Speaker 2: as they figure out how to be more strategic or

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Speaker 2: get efficiencies on their strategy on their tactical level. So

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Speaker 2: I think you're going to see this chasing of that.

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Speaker 2: It's been a problem trade. I'm a little bit worried

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Speaker 2: it's consensus. I think people have been piling into this

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Speaker 2: trade for the last month. It has not been working.

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Speaker 2: But I think we're kind of poised with this earnings,

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Speaker 2: this rebalancing that's going to occur on Friday, that we

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Speaker 2: can finally see this catch up.

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Speaker 4: Do you think that's spread please?

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Speaker 3: Just to build on that, do you think that optimism

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Speaker 3: constructive tone around the equal Wait and sorry for speaking IV,

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Speaker 3: I was eaging to jump in.

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Speaker 4: Pee spreads from you're rude, I'm not OK.

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Speaker 3: You didn't pay that spreads from equity to credit because

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Speaker 3: high yield spreads it's still pretty down tight gun into

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Speaker 3: all this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think credits gonna help lead the way, right.

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Speaker 2: I think you're going to see credit spreads continue to

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Speaker 2: grind tighter. You know, there's a lot of fear every

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Speaker 2: once in a while people are talking about this wall

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Speaker 2: of debt maturities in the high yield market. I think

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Speaker 2: right now it's still providing attronactive yield. The overall quality

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Speaker 2: of issuer is better. The banks have been getting rid

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Speaker 2: of some of their kind of hung inventory, some of

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Speaker 2: their bad commitments made you know, during the peak, and

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Speaker 2: with lack of supply, especially in the IG side, I

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Speaker 2: think spreads grind tighter. That's very supportive and if high

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Speaker 2: yield spreads can go further tighter. That does tend to

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Speaker 2: tie really well into a rally in the Russell two thousand, so.

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Speaker 3: I paid constructive on stocks, equal way and small capity,

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Speaker 3: and there on the Russell constructive on high yield credit

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Speaker 3: as well. Here's a risk factor real estate. Can you

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Speaker 3: just weigh in on Commo shall real estate pee and why?

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Speaker 3: You don't think that's going to be a broad problem.

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Speaker 3: You think it's going to be a local regional problem.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's going to be very local. You're

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Speaker 2: gonna have areas I think like San Francisco where there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of money invested at the peak, where

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Speaker 2: work from home is going to continue. As people start

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Speaker 2: seeing a little bit more pressure moving away from work

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Speaker 2: from home, I think that'll help some the cre space. Plus,

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Speaker 2: these things do take time to lead out. And even

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Speaker 2: want to tie back to some of your comments earlier

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Speaker 2: about homebuilders. I think the one thing that doesn't get

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Speaker 2: talked about enough about the home builders is this trend

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Speaker 2: of where people are moving. So homebuilders can do very

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Speaker 2: well when people are moving to new areas, and so

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Speaker 2: that trend away from some of the cities into other

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Speaker 2: regions really helps homebuilders. So I'm looking at more and more.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to get down in the economy, looking at

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Speaker 2: a region by region, because I think we are starting

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Speaker 2: to see the separation. And that's one thing. If you

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Speaker 2: kind of caught that on homebuilders, you would have seen, Oh,

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Speaker 2: with everyone moving to Tennessee, Florida, Texas, there is a

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Speaker 2: great opportunity for homebuilders, even with higher mortgage rates. So

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Speaker 2: I think that translates very similarly into CRE. Some problem areas.

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Speaker 2: There's going to be some good areas, but even the

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Speaker 2: problem areas are going to take longer to play out,

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Speaker 2: I think than people expect.

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Speaker 3: So time to try it is that long Texas, short,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey?

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Speaker 4: What is it?

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Speaker 5: You know?

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Speaker 2: As a contrarian, I wanted to start getting along the

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Speaker 2: other stuff. So I've been long some of these CRE

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Speaker 2: stocks for a little while. I've been pairing gains in

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Speaker 2: that just because you know, everyone was so doom and gloom,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's one of the things we look

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Speaker 2: at when you know, everyone loves to talk about the

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Speaker 2: great financial crisis that took years to play out, right,

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Speaker 2: it took a long period of time. I think it

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Speaker 2: was the summer of two thousand and seven when Merrill

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Speaker 2: Lynch had to cut the dividend, and it wasn't until

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Speaker 2: October two thousand and eight that you had Lehman moments

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Speaker 2: quote unquote moment. So I think people got a bit

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Speaker 2: ahead of themselves. Banks have a lot of leeway to

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Speaker 2: figure these things out. The companies themselves will work it out.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of pressure, I think, to move a

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Speaker 2: little bit away from work from home to back to

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Speaker 2: work from office. So that's kind of why I'm constructive

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Speaker 2: there for now.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's so harsh on New Jersey. P you know, Oh,

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Speaker 3: it gives New Jersey such a hard time. I never

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Speaker 3: understood that.

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Speaker 4: It's always well, one loves.

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Speaker 3: One loves the Hampton's, but Jersey Show is what's.

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Speaker 4: That about it? You still don't get it.

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Speaker 1: It's like snubble.

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Speaker 3: It's it's like massively like the beaches and the beaches

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Speaker 3: that the Hampton's aren't that nice?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, when you start in on there's Stephanie Rull's hair curls.

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Speaker 4: She gets likes the Jersey Show.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, she's all Jersey.

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Speaker 2: She's got one of our clients.

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Speaker 1: She's got like six thousand square feet down there.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I think Pete wanted to jump in, then, Pete,

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Speaker 3: you can't jump in by all means.

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Speaker 2: I was gonna say. One of our clients is always

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Speaker 2: wanted to use the term jersey math on like TV.

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Speaker 2: I still don't know what jersey math is, but it

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Speaker 2: seems like an appropriate time to mention it.

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Speaker 4: Do you get money for that?

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Speaker 3: Do we get do we get a share of that.

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Speaker 2: Shot?

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Speaker 3: The guess that come on and they have a bet

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Speaker 3: and they have to say a word. You know those guests.

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Speaker 3: I didn't realize Pete was one of those guests. Peter,

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Speaker 3: Chair of Academy Securities. Pete, thank you, sir.

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Speaker 1: What I'm going to do and I think I can

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Speaker 1: speak for the pros. What the pros do is not

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Speaker 1: only look at the last six months last year, but

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Speaker 1: where are we pre pandemic. Keetha Raghanathen is expert at

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Speaker 1: this US media analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Ketha, let me

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Speaker 1: go to what's important. Have you seen Barbie yet?

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Speaker 6: No, not yet, but I'm looking forward to it. Then

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Speaker 6: there is actually going to be the double feature. It's Barbenheimer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well there's Barbarenheimer and all that. I guess we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about that once we see the box office. I

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Speaker 1: do want somebody emailed in, folks, And yes, there is

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Speaker 1: a Ken surveillance. It's the more solid kind of Ken.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's a different Ken than what you had

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Speaker 1: in the sixties. Keith, I want to talk about Netflix here.

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Speaker 1: I don't have faith in the profitability stream. They make hits,

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Speaker 1: they succeed at Wednesday, they fail at this, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Can you develop a persistent free cash flow? Can you

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Speaker 1: develop a persistent ebitdah off of the creative process of

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Speaker 1: success and failure.

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Speaker 6: That's a really good question, Tom, and I think they've

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Speaker 6: actually shown us that they can. So you know, obviously,

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Speaker 6: the content business, it is a hit or miss business.

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Speaker 6: It's very unpredictable, as you just kind of pointed out.

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Speaker 6: But if you kind of looked at that report yesterday

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Speaker 6: and you looked at the free cash flow story, I mean,

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Speaker 6: this is a dramatic turnaround in what Netflix has been

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Speaker 6: able to achieve. Look at the operating margin leverage. So

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Speaker 6: we're seeing a lot of operating margin leverage, We're seeing

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Speaker 6: a lot of you know, free cash flow leverage. And

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Speaker 6: this is exactly what you want a streaming model to

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Speaker 6: kind of look like. So they obviously raise their free

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Speaker 6: cash flow guidance by forty percent, and there is going

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Speaker 6: to be a little bit of lumpiness. I mean, we're

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Speaker 6: looking at five over five billion dollars in free cash

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Speaker 6: flow and going into twenty twenty four again we think

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Speaker 6: it would probably be six to six and a half

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Speaker 6: billion free cash flow. So this is going to be

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Speaker 6: a persistent, growing, sustainable, free cash positive free cash flow

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Speaker 6: story for many years to come.

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Speaker 1: Do they have the ability do they have the elasticity

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Speaker 1: to raise prices? We saw peacock Maybe some would say desperate,

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Speaker 1: come up a buck can Netflix ruin my afternoon and

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Speaker 1: come up one dollars or two dollars per month?

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Speaker 6: They absolutely can. So this at the end of the day,

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Speaker 6: if you just kind of look at the breadth and

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Speaker 6: the depth of content, I think Netflix still is fairly underpriced.

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Speaker 6: They do offer a very compelling value proposition kind of

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Speaker 6: just looking at the amount of content that they have

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Speaker 6: and they're going to keep adding to it. And then

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Speaker 6: remember that these the labor strikes, while they're not good

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Speaker 6: for the industry as a whole, they actually put Netflix

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Speaker 6: in a little bit of a competitive advantage and a

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Speaker 6: little bit of a sweet spot relative to its peers.

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Speaker 6: Of course, it will be damaged if you know, or

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Speaker 6: it will be heard if the strikes prolong for you know,

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Speaker 6: into twenty twenty four. But I think relative to peers,

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Speaker 6: we're going to see that they're going to do well

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Speaker 6: and that's probably going to give them some more pricing power.

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Speaker 4: Okay, So what did they say about I guess today,

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Speaker 4: So what.

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Speaker 6: They said so this is, you know, one thing that

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Speaker 6: I think the key takeaway for me from the earnings

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Speaker 6: report was that this whole password crackdown initiative has definitely

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Speaker 6: got off to a very good start. So execution is good.

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Speaker 6: There is a little bit of a balancing act that

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Speaker 6: they've got to do when it comes to subscriber growth

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Speaker 6: as well as our pool growth, right, revenue growth, and

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Speaker 6: so what we're seeing this year twenty twenty three, I

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Speaker 6: think is going to be more of the new member

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Speaker 6: or new subscriber growth, and then as they kind of

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Speaker 6: get that benefit of subscribers, we're going to be able

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Speaker 6: to see them to increase pricing to increase revenue. So

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Speaker 6: I think the revenue growth becomes more of a four

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Speaker 6: Q and a twenty twenty four story to.

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Speaker 4: Put prices up.

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Speaker 3: You need a decent content slight, a deep catalog, and

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Speaker 3: a lot in the pipeline. At Gaithie, you brought up

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Speaker 3: the right to strike. What did they say and the

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Speaker 3: call yesterday about when that might buy? How long does

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Speaker 3: this need to go on for before it becomes a

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Speaker 3: big problem.

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Speaker 6: It's not going to become a big problem for Netflix

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Speaker 6: for a considerable period of time. I mean, we've kind

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Speaker 6: of seen them go through a very similar situation, not

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Speaker 6: exactly the same, but we've seen them, you know, having

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Speaker 6: to deal with a whole shutdown in production during COVID

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Speaker 6: and they still held up relatively well. So remember, they

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Speaker 6: have some advantages relative to peers because they do have

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Speaker 6: a huge backlog. They have a huge content pipeline. That's

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Speaker 6: because of very long lead in production times. The other

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Speaker 6: thing that they benefit from relative to their peers is

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Speaker 6: they have a lot of foreign content, so you know

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Speaker 6: a lot of content coming from you know, Spanish language

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Speaker 6: markets from South Korea. So they've been able to diversify

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Speaker 6: that really well. So they're not necessarily hugely dependent on Hollywood.

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Speaker 6: But of course it will affect them, and I don't

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Speaker 6: think they're going to see any material adverse impacts up

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Speaker 6: until at least the latter half of twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: What does the rest of LA media do given the

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Speaker 1: Netflix performance? Are they having meetings today going who do

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Speaker 1: we merge with?

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Speaker 6: I mean, this is you know, media of course, is

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Speaker 6: under tremendous pressure. Tom, So we're seeing the linear TV

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Speaker 6: business almost on the verge of collapse. And I think,

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Speaker 6: you know, the alarm bells kind of really went off

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Speaker 6: when when Bob Eiger just spoke a few days ago

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Speaker 6: about how the linear TV assets are really no longer

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Speaker 6: core to Disney's business. I mean, this is this is

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Speaker 6: something unimaginable, right, So obviously linear under considerable pressure. The

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Speaker 6: good thing with Netflix is they're the cleanest story in

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Speaker 6: media right now because they are pure streamer right, whereas

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Speaker 6: most of these other companies are having to manage this

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Speaker 6: transition from linear to streaming. So yeah, it's a very

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Speaker 6: very different problem for all of them. Again, they have

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Speaker 6: to manage a declining linear TV business. They have to

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Speaker 6: show profitability on the streaming side, something that Netflix has

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Speaker 6: managed to do really really well. So it's going to

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Speaker 6: be very very hard for the media companies. And as

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Speaker 6: you point out, yes, consolidation is definitely on the cards case.

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Speaker 4: Let's talk about that a little bit more.

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Speaker 3: Is that consolidation Disney basically consuming all of Hulu, have

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Speaker 3: an ESPN and keeping Disney Plus. Is that how it

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Speaker 3: all works over at Disney and the rest is.

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Speaker 4: Up for sale? Yeah?

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Speaker 6: So I mean yes, in a nutshell, yes, So Disney

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Speaker 6: is definitely going to buy Hulu. You know, there are

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Speaker 6: all indications for that. The price point, of course, we

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Speaker 6: don't know yet, but I think it will be upwards

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Speaker 6: of ten billion, and then merge that into Disney Plus.

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Speaker 6: And yes, everything other than ESPN is for sale. That's

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Speaker 6: exactly what Bob has said. But the question is going

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Speaker 6: to be who's really going to be willing to buy it?

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Speaker 6: Because it's a declining business.

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Speaker 1: Keith, the one final question, it's urgent. Who's going to

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Speaker 1: get Otani? I mean, there's Otani such a media value

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Speaker 1: that the LA Dodgers just pick them up. It's like

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Speaker 1: a no brainer the day one they pay for it.

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Speaker 6: I really don't. I wish I had had the answer

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Speaker 6: to that question.

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Speaker 1: Man, Okay, Keith, you know, prop up next time?

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Speaker 3: Come ONKEITHA thank you Keithan rockin Ath and that Flumpeg

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Speaker 3: it's setogen.

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Speaker 1: For Global Wall Street. Our Interview of the Day with

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Speaker 1: Ianlncoln on rates. I was making jokes about it, but

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Speaker 1: you and I remember a normal rate environment. The pervading

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Speaker 1: feel is we're all going to die. How do we

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Speaker 1: survive in a normal rate environment.

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Speaker 7: I think that survival in this type of rate environment

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Speaker 7: is going to be a function of picking your places

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Speaker 7: on the curve. It's an attractive environment to be involved

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Speaker 7: in bills, it's an attractive environment to be in the

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Speaker 7: front end of the curve. But as we know, when

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Speaker 7: that shifts, it shifts very dramatically. And I expect that

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Speaker 7: things will look wonderful from an economic perspective, certainly in

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Speaker 7: the context of what we would normally anticipate between now

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Speaker 7: and the end of the year. But come the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 7: we're start to see more evidence of the cumulative impact

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Speaker 7: of policy.

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Speaker 1: Time to go to the belly of the curve. If

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Speaker 1: you're at the five year point and you're rationalizing the

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Speaker 1: risk of reinvestment, is your scale to go out to

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Speaker 1: seven years or is your scale to go out to

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Speaker 1: ten years from five?

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Speaker 7: I think you go from five to ten years, And

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Speaker 7: I think that the logic behind that is that there

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Speaker 7: is enough cyclical risk between year five and year ten

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Speaker 7: to justify lower yields over the course of time. And

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Speaker 7: let us not forget the ten year treasury is the

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Speaker 7: benchmark of all benchmarks, and so for overseas investors it

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Speaker 7: will always be an attractive touch point.

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Speaker 3: Andrew Holnholst The City just published He said we see

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Speaker 3: upside risk to inflation and downside risk to growth three

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Speaker 3: emerging in late twenty three. Max Catton has been bullished

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Speaker 3: this equity market, and I know equlity' sign your things,

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Speaker 3: So I'm not going to go in that direction.

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Speaker 4: Don't worry.

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Speaker 3: He's bullish and still bullish, but only through the rest

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Speaker 3: of the summer. He thinks after the summer, inflation risk

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Speaker 3: starts to kick back in What are you telling clients

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Speaker 3: about that?

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Speaker 7: So I'm completely on board with the notion that once

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Speaker 7: we get to the September October CPI numbers that will

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Speaker 7: start to get a better sense of how much housing

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Speaker 7: costs and oer and rints have actually moderated sustainably. If

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Speaker 7: we see a return of those core inflation components, I

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Speaker 7: think that's going to be problematic for the FED. It

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Speaker 7: will push rate cuts even further into twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 7: and more importantly, I think the FED will focus on

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Speaker 7: shifting the conversation to core services X shelter, and that's

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Speaker 7: the big uncertainty. If that, given its high correlation with

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Speaker 7: nominal wages, continues to moderate, the FED can claim victory

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Speaker 7: even if core inflation resurges towards the end of the year.

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Speaker 3: Give them what you've just said, How do you think

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Speaker 3: that's going to shape communication next week and beyond inch

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Speaker 3: Jackson Holle.

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Speaker 7: So we're expecting a comparatively dubvish hike next week we

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Speaker 7: get twenty five basis points. That's all that's completely priced

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Speaker 7: in at this stage. But the Fed yes wants to

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Speaker 7: retain a degree of flexibility, but also needs to communicate

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Speaker 7: to the market that five point fifty may very well

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Speaker 7: be the terminal rate for this cycle. So we're looking

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Speaker 7: for a Powell press conference that echoes what we saw

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Speaker 7: in June, not what we saw at Humphrey Hawkins.

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Speaker 1: Not because of you. It was Beamo Capital Markets. But

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Speaker 1: I loaded up on the Austrian twenty one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventeen piece. I thought for the great grandchildren, who'd be

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Speaker 1: a great idea and I've enjoyed that from a price

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Speaker 1: of two twenty down to seventy five, and critically it

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Speaker 1: hasn't come off a mat at all. What's the risk

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Speaker 1: to retail of being yield hogs and defining duration of

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Speaker 1: twenty years, twenty five years, thirty years. What's the risk

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Speaker 1: that you see there at retail? They just love to

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Speaker 1: go out to that maturity.

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Speaker 7: The biggest risk for that sector is that the subset

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Speaker 7: of the market that believes that inflation is structurally higher

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Speaker 7: and therefore nominal rates will be higher for longer, over

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Speaker 7: an extended period, that they're right. If inflation is structurally

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Speaker 7: higher and the FED gives up the inflation target at

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Speaker 7: two percent revises to say three percent, then we actually

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Speaker 7: are going to be in a sustainably higher rate environment

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Speaker 7: for an extended While your.

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Speaker 1: Work on the r start debate, John Williams comes out

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Speaker 1: and reaffirms lower our start, Others, as you say, are

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Speaker 1: looking for higher our start. Where does Governor lingoln think

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Speaker 1: we are.

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Speaker 7: I think that the post pandemic period we will all

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Speaker 7: come to the realization that our start hasn't changed. If anything,

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Speaker 7: it's incrementally lower as a result of the dislocations.

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Speaker 1: We could do a good co interview here.

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Speaker 4: We could do Williams and Williams to Williams on Jackson.

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Speaker 4: How why I mean next month is serious?

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Speaker 1: Folks. We've got market guy here saying he agrees with

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Speaker 1: John Williams as well. What are the high our star

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Speaker 1: of the worry warts? What do they get wrong?

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Speaker 7: I think that the argument breaks down once we see

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Speaker 7: labor force participation continue to move higher across the board

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Speaker 7: with the exception of fifty five and older cohort, and

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Speaker 7: we see nominal wages revert to pre pandemic norms.

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Speaker 1: Like give me that's critical. There are nominal wages. Let's

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Speaker 1: say we had the luxury four five six percent, particularly

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Speaker 1: the lower death styles. Where do we get back to

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Speaker 1: normal and nominal wages? Some inflation.

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Speaker 7: So if we're printing with a three handle sustainably year

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Speaker 7: over year average hourly earnings, the market is very quickly

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Speaker 7: going to move back from the higher our start argument.

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Speaker 4: Pre pandemic economy is that what you're calling for.

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Speaker 7: I don't think that much has truly changed. Think that

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Speaker 7: the Fed got transitory right. What they got wrong was

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Speaker 7: how long transitory applied for.

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Speaker 4: And you can't say months say that it was.

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Speaker 7: It was four years.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's go back, little experiment. What do you think

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Speaker 3: the optimal policy response would have been, given everything.

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Speaker 7: We know now, if Congress and the fiscal side had

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Speaker 7: stayed out of it. I think that the Fed did

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Speaker 7: the right thing. It was difficult for Washington at that

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Speaker 7: moment to not pump a ton of money into the system.

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Speaker 7: I think that that is what really shifted the real

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Speaker 7: life was.

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Speaker 4: The ultimate scent.

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Speaker 3: But what could the Fed have done? Given everything we know,

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Speaker 3: just the benefit of perfect hindsight twenty twenty vision, what

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Speaker 3: could they have done?

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Speaker 4: They could have.

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Speaker 7: Stopped buying bond sooner, they could have normalized rates more quickly.

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Speaker 7: But recall, what the Fed was doing was they were

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Speaker 7: trying to make sure that the system continued to function,

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Speaker 7: that the ATM card worked when you went to the

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Speaker 7: to the bank, and so they were playing a much

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Speaker 7: longer game than the market was.

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Speaker 4: And good to catch out ending and there of BIMO.

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Speaker 1: This is a joy right now. Steve Tren is known

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Speaker 1: for writing acutely detailed change notes on the airline business

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Speaker 1: out of Stuyvesant and Penn holding on the Dartmouth bubble

440
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 1: for four years or what I think he took he

441
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 1: took Talk into a six year program just to hang

442
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 1: out with his ll beans on up in Dartmouth. Steve

443
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: Trena City Group joins us this morning. You learned at

444
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 1: Talk under Max, Matt Slaughter and the rest of them

445
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:38,360
Speaker 1: that business plans matter and strategic vision matters. Which United

446
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 1: States Airline has the best talk like business plan?

447
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 5: Well, first off, thanks for having me on and for

448
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,719
Speaker 5: the warm welcome. I super appreciate that. When we think

449
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 5: about the US airlines, I'm impressed with Delta, and I

450
00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 5: also think that you Niman knows what it's doing in

451
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:07,120
Speaker 5: terms of its long term refleeting effort, and Delta Airlines

452
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 5: as well.

453
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 2: I would say both of them.

454
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 5: What we're seeing international long haul, that's really the place

455
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 5: where I think one year from now we're going to

456
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 5: be talking about how good the unit revenue is, and

457
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 5: those two carriers I think will very well positioned for

458
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 5: that longer term upside. And I think their strategy on

459
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 5: that regard has been intentional.

460
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,160
Speaker 4: Steve, why isn't American in that sweet spot?

461
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 5: You know, in Americans case, they have definitely done a

462
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 5: better job. You know, the two Q print was above

463
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 5: the street when we think about how they're set up structurally.

464
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 5: They just don't have as much metal on those transatlantic

465
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 5: or trans specific exposures on those corridors, so they won't

466
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 5: have as much as the upside. You know, you can

467
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 5: kind of also dig down deeper, for example, into co

468
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 5: branded credit card and loyalty. That's a piece of the

469
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 5: pie that elements of the market ignore sometimes. And if

470
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 5: you look at Delta's program with the American Express, what

471
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 5: all of that telegraphs in terms of Delta's strength as

472
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 5: a counterparty. You know that revenue is still really surging

473
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 5: in the right direction, and American probably from a counter

474
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 5: probably excuse me, counterparty profile doesn't get that same premium

475
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 5: that Delta.

476
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: And United to.

477
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 3: So Steve, when I see those massive lines around the

478
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 3: corner of JFK to get into the data air lines loud,

479
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 3: are you telling me that's good news?

480
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 5: You know, that might not always be the best news

481
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 5: for the consumer, that's probably good to very good news

482
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 5: for the shareholder. And I think when we look at

483
00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 5: the normal post pandemic world out there, you know, I

484
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 5: think Delta has been really good and United as well

485
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 5: about really optimizing sort of the passenger outreach in.

486
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 1: Let's optimize this, John, what we need in the lines

487
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 1: you're in at JFK that go four miles long. We

488
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 1: need Bloomberg terminals along the way so the shareholders can

489
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: get their quotes along the way. Steve Trent, what I

490
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 1: love about your note is you get granular about looking

491
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 1: out weeks and months. You mentioned that October looks pretty good.

492
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 1: Is your belief in guessing revenue, guessing number of fannies

493
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: in the seat? Is your belief like it was pre

494
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 1: pandemic or is there still a mystery to it?

495
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: Oh, that's a great question, and I would say that.

496
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 5: It looks like demand patterns have at least modestly changed

497
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 5: versus pre pandemic. And this is partially a consequence of

498
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 5: many people no longer working in the office Monday through Friday.

499
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 5: So that lifestyle adjustment, per see, we believe has influenced

500
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 5: the way consumers make purchasing decisions and the way they

501
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 5: make decisions about purchasing airline tickets. So when we look

502
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 5: at the data through October, you know, the booking curve

503
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 5: in this first back to data we got for October

504
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 5: looks very good. And one of the things we've seen

505
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 5: in the last year and a half. Quite frankly, is

506
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 5: advanced bookings much stronger than they used.

507
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 2: To be pre pandemic.

508
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 5: We think that's one sort of symptom, so to speak

509
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 5: of the nature of post pandemic travel is now a

510
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 5: bit different than twenty nineteen.

511
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jane from Scotland emails in and says she hopes

512
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: you're working five days a week and not doing the

513
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 1: work from home, la Steve Trent. When you look at

514
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: the aviation business, and I'm going to go back to

515
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 1: the wonderful conversations I had with one of my heroes,

516
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: Robert Crandall, who basically invented some say the price discrimination

517
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 1: of the cabin Is it going to be business as

518
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,959
Speaker 1: usual or for you out three years or five years?

519
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 1: Is there an airline new world, an airline new persistency

520
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 1: of free cash flow that makes it more quality than

521
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 1: the crazy Crandall world we knew?

522
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely so.

523
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 5: I think one of the things that's definitely going to

524
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 5: be different for a while it's capacity. So some of

525
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 5: that's coming from the manufacturers. You've had, of course, these

526
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 5: pandemic era supply chain issues, which to some indications that

527
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 5: those supply chain issues are improving, but there's still a

528
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 5: lot that they have to dig through.

529
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 8: It still takes a.

530
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 5: Long time for airlines to get planes. You have in

531
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 5: some instances engines and spare parts are hard to come by,

532
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 5: and then the pilots. So it's a little bit difficult

533
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 5: to see the pilot situation normalizing in the next two,

534
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 5: three or even four years. So you have this bottleneck

535
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 5: out there that is going to be hard to solve.

536
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 5: I think that layered over you know what we see

537
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 5: as the good countercyclical demand trends. At the moment, capacity

538
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 5: should be constrained and capacity remains below twenty nineteen levels

539
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 5: on a per capital basis, so that's something that probably

540
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 5: takes a very long time to change.

541
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 3: Steve, this was great. Let's do it again, Steve Trend.

542
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 3: There a city on the airlines.

543
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: Well, welcome all of you worldwide and across America. From

544
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 1: the guy who made major headlines three months ago styling

545
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 1: at the met Gala, he's moved from the met Gala.

546
00:26:58,880 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 4: He's doing a little better.

547
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: Matt Gello with the beautiful people. It's a new danger RECURR.

548
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 3: Just really good stuff. Daniel Ricardo joined US now Formula

549
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 3: One driver for Alpha Tawi. Daniel, wonderful to have you

550
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: with us, and first of all, congratulations, it's going to

551
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: be fantastic to see you. Want a seat this weekend.

552
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: I actually want to go back a couple of weeks

553
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 3: if we can. You went into the car to do

554
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 3: some testing, I believe, tire testing in Red Bull at Silverston,

555
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 3: and for many people they assume that was the game changer. Daniel,

556
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 3: can you tell me what it was like to get

557
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 3: in the seat and tell me how well that went

558
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: and how quickly it came back to you?

559
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 8: Ferstally, thanks for having me back. Appreciate it. It was,

560
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 8: it felt it kind of gave me everything I wanted

561
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 8: to feel again. You know, I hadn't hadn't driven since

562
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 8: the last race of last season, so it was about

563
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 8: eight months, and yeah, I was like, I was very curious.

564
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 8: I was I'm probably going to feel a little but

565
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 8: I'd also been doing a lot of sim work and

566
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 8: so I'd kept my eye in, but yeah, hadn't driven,

567
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 8: you know, the physical car, and I got in and

568
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 8: it felt all like normal and natural again, and it

569
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 8: went really well. And I think that was like the

570
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 8: last box that needed to be ticked to kind of

571
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 8: confirm the comeback.

572
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 4: Just so of a decent idea.

573
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 3: Daniel, what kind of lap times were you putting in

574
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 3: and how long did it take to put those kind

575
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 3: of lap times in? Did it take five, six, seven,

576
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 3: eight laps? What were you putting in?

577
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: It was?

578
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 8: It went well? It went well, so I you know,

579
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 8: I So the very first lap I did, I was like, oh,

580
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 8: this steels, it feels fast. I haven't driven this fast

581
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 8: in a long time. So you know, it's it's nearly

582
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 8: like your brain and your like eyes need to readjust

583
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 8: just to the speeds and everything, let alone like your body,

584
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 8: you know, the physical forces. So yeah, like the first

585
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 8: lap in a way felt like a bit of a

586
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 8: shock to the body. And then from that point it

587
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 8: just I quickly got back into it, like it all

588
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 8: felt normal again. So I did one run just to

589
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 8: get my eye in, so that was about six laps

590
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 8: or something, and then the next run we put on

591
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 8: some new tires and that's when I, like the first lap,

592
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 8: I was pretty much down to the pace.

593
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 3: Well, I hear it's better than that, Daniel, I hear,

594
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 3: it's better than that. What I've heard is that actually

595
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 3: it would have put you at the front of the

596
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 3: grid at Silverstone on race day?

597
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: Is that right?

598
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 8: Yeah?

599
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: It was.

600
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 4: It was good enough for a front, right, So that's amazing.

601
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 9: I was like, look, I obviously like believe a lot

602
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 9: in my ability, but I know that being out in

603
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 9: the city for a while, like there's going to be

604
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 9: a few cobbs to kind of dust off.

605
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 8: I didn't expect for it to go that good. So

606
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 8: I was like, I was greeting for me Adio.

607
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: Daniel I pointed up one hundred and twenty thousand last

608
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: week for the simulator, which is somewhat almost like what

609
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: you max for stepping and others. Do we see it

610
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: on the Netflix movies. You guys are into simulators, wasting

611
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: time from photo shoot to photo shoot. Explain what a

612
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 1: simulator can't do. I'm fascinated by your leap from simulators

613
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 1: to Budapest, which some people say is Monico without barriers.

614
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: What's the jump from simulator to actually doing it?

615
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 8: I mean it's still a it's still a legitimate jump,

616
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 8: you know. I think the the simulator is now very good.

617
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 8: Like the team's purpose build them, you know, you can't.

618
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 8: These aren't stimulators that you can have at your home.

619
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 8: They are beyond next level, so they they feel like

620
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 8: you can you can kind of get I mean what

621
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 8: I'd probably say it feels like maybe eighty eighty five

622
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 8: percent of the real thing. So it gives you enough

623
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 8: of a feeling and enough of an idea. So it

624
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 8: definitely helped me get up to speed. But you know,

625
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 8: there's no like physical aspect of the simulator. You know,

626
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 8: you don't get the g forces and so there's a

627
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 8: lot that's still you know, like tire management, all that

628
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 8: sort of stuff is then that's all on track, real

629
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 8: stuff that that I have ahead of me obviously now

630
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 8: this weekend, so it's prepped me. But yeah, I'll still

631
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 8: got a few things to get on top of.

632
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 4: Well, let's talk about this weekend and beyond.

633
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 3: So you're obviously going from a team as a reserve

634
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 3: driver red Bull at the top of the pack, top

635
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 3: of the standings, to a team at the bottom of

636
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 3: the standings at Alphatarrius. Back to your Toro Rosso roots.

637
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: You know how to get it done in a slower car,

638
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: So talk to me about how you're going to define

639
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 3: success not just for this weekend, but for the rest

640
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: of the season.

641
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 8: I mean, it's really I think as you said said

642
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 8: like the car I drove last week was the best

643
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 8: car on the grid, So in a way, part of

644
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 8: me needs to remove that feeling. But getting into that

645
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 8: car last week, I was just I just kind of

646
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 8: jumped in. I was like, let's just see how it goes.

647
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 8: Let's just drive. Who's my ability have fun with it?

648
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 8: And you know that's the approach now. I think you

649
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 8: know it's so easy to overcomplicate it. Yes, this team

650
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 8: is having a difficult season. There's going to be some

651
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 8: things we're gonna have to work on. But I think

652
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 8: the approach for me needs to be just go out there,

653
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 8: drive it, and then you go from work on its weaknesses.

654
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 8: And I think I just need to focus on getting

655
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 8: the best out of myself first.

656
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: Dane, I noticed its silverstone, Like Lando Norris is getting

657
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: all the love. I mean, Florence Pugh wants to hang

658
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: out with Lando, not Daniel.

659
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 6: I get it.

660
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 8: I mean, there's no question about this.

661
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: You have been through the ups and downs of this.

662
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 1: John mentions Budapest, and I think Austin's out there summer

663
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: as well. Is this a sequential process you have to

664
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: get back into it or is this so thing you

665
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: can figure out and practice to tomorrow now on the

666
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: qualities and get something done on Saturday.

667
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 8: I mean I, like I would say, realistically, it's a

668
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 8: bit of a process. I can't probably expect everything to

669
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 8: fall into place on the first weekend, but let's see

670
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 8: what happens. Like I also, and you know, I've.

671
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 3: Never seen this modest in my life. I've never seen

672
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 3: in this modest in my life. Let's finish on this

673
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: hopes and dreams. I know you've got many have you

674
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: got your right on that second seat at red Bull

675
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 3: not for next year, but the year after that.

676
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 8: I mean that that's like that is that is where

677
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 8: I would love to get to. And this this for

678
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 8: me is it's an opportunity for sure, back in the sport,

679
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 8: back in the red Bull family. And I know if

680
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 8: I can capitalize on this, it could potentially lead to that.

681
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 8: So this is all part of it.

682
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 3: Then your congratulations and good luck for race weekend. And

683
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 3: next time you're in the States, drop by New York

684
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 3: on the way to Wolston and Vegas. We can catch

685
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: up Daniel Ricardo there of Afatari, Thank you, sir.

686
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:12,160
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687
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,440
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688
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689
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690
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691
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692
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