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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast pot all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen hondy, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty, forty five, fifty.

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Speaker 1: And the kicks block Look College Football World.

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Speaker 3: Stunder God, Oh my goodness, big stumbled and football the

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Speaker 3: lateral turn A counter on the job.

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Speaker 1: Get you the lad I came up the field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the sage of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the sage of the fight in the roll. What's

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Speaker 2: up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the Week

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Speaker 2: five college football betting preview. I'm stucky, enjoying me as

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Speaker 2: always as my co host Colin Wilson, who was just

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Speaker 2: telling me he is a terrorist and he bet Team

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Speaker 2: Europe in the Ryder Cup.

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Speaker 1: We will never talk about golfer a football season, but yes,

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Speaker 1: I bet Team Europe and the Ryder Cup. My best

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Speaker 1: friend is not talking to me. He called me a terrorist.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to Week five action. I'm gonna be

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Speaker 1: I don't think I'm gonna sleep this weekend. Stuck. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna watch golf from twelve thirty in the morning till

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Speaker 1: seven am I'm roll right into college football.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the life. All right, Yeah, we had a

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Speaker 2: lot to get to today. Here's my prediction. By the way,

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Speaker 2: So last weekend was the sexy card and we had

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Speaker 2: all the top twenty five. I think like every top

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Speaker 2: twenty five team was in action. Was like the most

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Speaker 2: top twenty five matchups is since like two thousand and six.

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Speaker 2: But there wasn't much chaos. If you bet the higher

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Speaker 2: ranked team or bet the ranked team against the unranked team,

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Speaker 2: you went like eighteen and four against the spread. So

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Speaker 2: everything pretty much went according to chuck. This weekend not

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Speaker 2: as sexy on the as far as the total amount

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Speaker 2: of marquee matchups, but I have a sneaky suspicion there's

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Speaker 2: going to be chaos.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 2: So I think this is the weekend we we could

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Speaker 2: see some shocking results.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what The theme of this week is stuck.

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Speaker 1: Everybody has built these narratives around these teams. Some of

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Speaker 1: these teams strength of schedule is outside the top one hundred.

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Speaker 1: People's thought process is going to get majorly adjusted this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I have a couple of spots that fit

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Speaker 2: that mold that I'll talk about later on. I also

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Speaker 2: have some really trashy trash it stinks. But let's first

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Speaker 2: start with some look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away hangovers, sleepers and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 1: time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: It's where we kind of focus on what happened last

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Speaker 2: week and or what's going to happen next week, and

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Speaker 2: if there is a team that might potentially get caught

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Speaker 2: looking ahead, or maybe they take their foot off the

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Speaker 2: gas a little bit sooner than usual, maybe they don't

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Speaker 2: want to show too much. So this is kind of

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Speaker 2: the schedule section. And obviously the biggest game of next

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Speaker 2: weekend is the Red River Rivalry shootout showdown with that

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Speaker 2: whatever they're calling it now between Oklahoma and Texas, in

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Speaker 2: which the winner of that game pretty much punches their

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Speaker 2: ticket to the Big twelve title game. But before both

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Speaker 2: of those teams get to Dallas, they have Big Twelve

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Speaker 2: opponents on their schedule. First, Texas will host Kansas.

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Speaker 4: The Prairie Skies are wide and hut.

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Speaker 2: Deep in the high of Texas sixteen and a half

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Speaker 2: ish point favorite here for what it's worth. Last year,

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Speaker 2: Texas drummed Kansas in Lawrence fifty five to fourteen, I

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Speaker 2: think was the final score. Kansas's offense, we know, it's

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Speaker 2: very well schemed, a lot of motion, not relying on

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Speaker 2: one guy. It's just a I love watching the offense.

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Speaker 2: It's just great play calling from start to finish, and

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Speaker 2: they're just very well schooled. The defense leads a lot

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Speaker 2: to be desired, but they're actually creating a lot of

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Speaker 2: havoc this year. I think they lead the country in havoc.

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Speaker 2: So they're you know, getting into the backfield, they're breaking

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Speaker 2: up passes, causing turnovers. So the question is number one,

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Speaker 2: Ken Kansas operate their offense efficiently against Texas, which they

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Speaker 2: weren't able to do last year. And number two, Ken

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Speaker 2: Kansas caused chaos and force yours in company into mistakes

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Speaker 2: because just from a man versus man perspective, the talent

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Speaker 2: size gap is just way too big. So they're going

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Speaker 2: to have to continue that trend of creating havoc in

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Speaker 2: order to get stops.

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Speaker 1: What say you, well, I think the first thing you

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Speaker 1: look at is is this an overlook spot, huge, huge

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Speaker 1: game with OU next week? And I would say no.

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Speaker 1: Last year, Texas beat West Virginia thirty eight to twenty.

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Speaker 1: The year before they beat TCU thirty two to twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: That's not a big win, but that wasn't a great

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Speaker 1: Texas team. Those games happened before the OU, before red River, Showdown,

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Speaker 1: shoot out, whatever you want to call it. So I

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Speaker 1: would say, sure, it's an overlook spot on the schedule,

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Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean that Texas hasn't played to their

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Speaker 1: full ability, thinking that they've got the Sooners on deck.

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Speaker 2: It's also a ranked, undefeated Kansas team.

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Speaker 1: Well, and there's also Sark putting up film of Texas

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Speaker 1: losing to Kansas. It doesn't matter what year it was.

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Speaker 1: He's just going to roll that film every year to

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Speaker 1: get the get his squad fired up. So they're not

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Speaker 1: overlooking Kansas at all. And I think, you know, I've

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Speaker 1: said this a couple of times. Kansas is the one

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Speaker 1: team where I got to go a little bit deeper

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Speaker 1: on my handicap and I just can't put the numbers

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Speaker 1: up and say, well, this team is favored here and

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Speaker 1: that's why they're going to win because they run so

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Speaker 1: much interference pre snap, there's motion, there's pistol. We're in this,

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Speaker 1: We're in that. Jalen Daniels might flex himself out to

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Speaker 1: wide receiver and have Bean throw it to I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's so much happening pre snap. There's two things you

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Speaker 1: have to be good at. One, don't tip your defense

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Speaker 1: with your coverage on the motion to tackle in space.

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Speaker 1: What happened last year, Texas won this game fifty five

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Speaker 1: to fourteen. Kansas was demolished in the running game two

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Speaker 1: point two yards per carry. Kansas had no methodical drives.

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Speaker 1: They were one of the best methodical drive offenses in

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Speaker 1: the nation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if they can't run the ball on an average

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Speaker 2: tuople do is that's you know, it's a lot of

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Speaker 2: passing at motion. But if they can't run the ball,

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Speaker 2: that's how that's the baseline. That's the basis and foundation

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Speaker 2: for the entire offense.

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Speaker 1: And they lived on short passing and Texas was able

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Speaker 1: to attack that. Now you fast forward to this year

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Speaker 1: and yeah, Kansas leads the nation and defensive havoc that's

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Speaker 1: tackles for loss, interceptions and PBUs. But here we go.

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Speaker 1: Here's the narrative I talked about at the top. This

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Speaker 1: is one hundred and twenty first strength of schedule. You

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Speaker 1: face the offenses of Nevada, Illinois, Missouri State, and a

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Speaker 1: BYU team that actually pushed you around on offense. I mean,

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Speaker 1: with that schedule Kansas's defense, this is the stat that

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Speaker 1: I just cannot get over. So one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: three teams in college football of FBS, Kansas is one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty second and defensive finishing drives. Sixteen opponent

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Speaker 1: drives have gone past the forty yard line. They have

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Speaker 1: averaged five point six points per trip. Quinn Ewers right

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Speaker 1: now is immaculate, one turnover worthy throw, nine touchdowns. He

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Speaker 1: looks great. I know the running game is bad. Give

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Speaker 1: me Texas right here. One of the sharpest shops just

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Speaker 1: moved it down to sixteen. I don't care. I haven't

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Speaker 1: put it in the app yet. If everybody else wants

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Speaker 1: to follow suit, that's fine. I make this eighteen. I'll

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Speaker 1: take Texas at sixteen sixteen a half seventeen.

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Speaker 2: The talent discrepancy just on these two teams is big. However,

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Speaker 2: I have a different take here. I'm I'm going to

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Speaker 2: hope for your sake and anyone that follows you, that

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Speaker 2: Texas jumps out to a big league because they look

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Speaker 2: their defensive. Their defense is even better this year, and

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Speaker 2: they shut down Kansas last year, and yeah, yours isn't

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Speaker 2: making those mistakes. If Texas is up big in the

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Speaker 2: first half, they come out focused here score shut down Kansas.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be looking for Kansas second half. And here's

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Speaker 2: the reason why.

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Speaker 1: Kids.

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Speaker 2: They're capable of scoring late no matter who's in at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: But if Texas is up really big, the one thing

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Speaker 2: missing from this team right now is they're rushing their

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Speaker 2: rushing offense. The rushing offense has not been great, and

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Speaker 2: you know, they really miss Bijon Robinson. They're going to

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Speaker 2: need the running game to get going. So my hypothesis

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Speaker 2: is that if they built a big lead, then that's

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Speaker 2: where the look ahead factor can come in because one,

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Speaker 2: hey let's get healthy, not show too much, but two,

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Speaker 2: let's work on this run game, which hasn't been great.

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Speaker 2: That's going to really speed up the clock, and I

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Speaker 2: don't think it would be the most efficient Texas attack

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Speaker 2: from that point on. So I'm gonna hope Texas builds

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Speaker 2: a big lead look to potentially get on Kansas live

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Speaker 2: or in the second half. But I don't disagree with

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Speaker 2: your handicap.

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Speaker 1: Making a movie. You're making a great case for the

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Speaker 1: under two, which I would play, but it's steamed off

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Speaker 1: the number that I want, so maybe live if Texas

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Speaker 1: comes out hot. I mean, you're making a great case

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Speaker 1: for the under and I'd play that too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, or the second half under or live under if

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Speaker 2: Texas jumps out. The other part of the red River

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Speaker 2: equation is Oklahoma is a twenty point home favorite against

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Speaker 2: Iowa State.

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Speaker 4: No matter for a twenty eight point favorite ko for

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Speaker 4: three point doll That's what being all in means.

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Speaker 2: I'll make the case here. This is where I love

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Speaker 2: the underdog for what it's worth. This Sooners are just

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Speaker 2: four and thirteen against the spread as a home favorite

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Speaker 2: the week before facing the Longhorn since nineteen eighty. They've

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Speaker 2: lost outright his favorites in each of the past two

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Speaker 2: seasons in this spot on the schedule. The last time

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Speaker 2: they were a home favorite the week for Texas, by

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Speaker 2: the way, was against Iowa State a few years back.

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Speaker 2: They were thirty one point fa faits and one by

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Speaker 2: seven right off the bat. For you trend folks, and

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Speaker 2: then I'll explain why this makes sense. Matt Campbell twelve

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Speaker 2: and three against the spread as a double digit underdog,

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Speaker 2: covering by over eight points per game. He's six and

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Speaker 2: H against the spread when catching more than seventeen four

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Speaker 2: and L against the spread. Teams like Oklahoma favored by

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Speaker 2: seventeen or more in Week five just thirty eight percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread over the past twenty five years, faimily

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Speaker 2: covered by four and at points per game. Number One

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Speaker 2: why is why is I a stated Matt Campbells so

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Speaker 2: successful as a big underdog. They just ugly up games, right.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is usually pretty good, They're going to ugly

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Speaker 2: up the game generally. Just really thrive in this role.

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Speaker 2: And I wouldn't be surprised if this game is close late.

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Speaker 2: I think Oklahoma's a bit overvalued, right if you look

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Speaker 2: at what they've done so far this year. They beat

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Speaker 2: two doormats, who cares, Tulsa with a backup quarterback in

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Speaker 2: Arkansas State with a crying coach. I don't care about

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Speaker 2: those games. Then they beat Cincinnati Naddi's.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati lost that game. Let's be clear, Cincinnati lost that game.

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Speaker 2: And then they beat SMU, but that game was fourteen

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Speaker 2: to eleven midway through the fourth quarter and Oklahoma was

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Speaker 2: out game. Even though they covered. They cut bullshit covers

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Speaker 2: against the closing number, very misleading scores because against Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: and against the NMU two covers they were net positive

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Speaker 2: forty seven yards. That's it combined, basically dead even statistically

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Speaker 2: in these games. It was just more about the other

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Speaker 2: teams not being able to finish drives. So I think

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma comes in here a bit overvalued. Additionally, I think

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Speaker 2: Iowa State is a bit undervalue. Not only is this

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Speaker 2: a good spot, but Iowa State, understandably so, struggled early

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Speaker 2: in the season on offense because they had this gambling drama.

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Speaker 2: They lost their starting quarterback. They lost at Ohio. That

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Speaker 2: was a pretty good team and people are gonna remember

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Speaker 2: that game. Iowa State eighty five percent postgame win expectancy.

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Speaker 2: And not only they dealt with gambling drama field, they've

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Speaker 2: dealt with diarrhea problems. They had food a food poisoning

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Speaker 2: valt the night before that game that you know, their

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Speaker 2: starting quarterback backed their leading receiver Jalen and Noel were

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Speaker 2: up all night. It affected them poorly. Last week against

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State, they tweaked the offense. They say, look, we're

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Speaker 2: running into walls. We can't run it, we can't run block.

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Speaker 2: Let's come out and you're and Oklahomas runny has been

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00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:17,880
Speaker 2: really good, so let's come out and throw the ball.

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Speaker 2: Let's lean on the pass.

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Speaker 1: And it worked.

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Speaker 2: Beck was the National Freshman of the Year. He's twenty

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Speaker 2: seven of thirty eight for three fifty three touchdowns, no interceptions.

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Speaker 2: This offense found something and like I said, Oklahoma's Rundy

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Speaker 2: is really good. That's how you have to tech Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: great preparation game. So I think Iowa State is undervalued.

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Speaker 2: All about the clones. I think this line is definitely inflated.

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Speaker 2: So give me the clones here to keep this close.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked if this is like a one

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Speaker 2: possession game of the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I completely agree. I kind of came

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Speaker 1: to the same sentiment but from a different route. And

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Speaker 1: I think when Iowa stayed is working best in their offense.

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Speaker 1: It's when they run a heavy amount of twelve and thirteen.

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Speaker 1: They have not run a lot of thirteen person this

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Speaker 1: year until the last game. If Oklahoma's going to watch

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Speaker 1: tape from week one to two on Iowa State, it's

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Speaker 1: not going to be good. Now Rock Obec it's actually

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00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,079
Speaker 1: been pretty decent. Seven to three TD to i int

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Speaker 1: six to two big time throws turnover with the play ratio.

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Speaker 1: But the Iowa State offense, they really do have some

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Speaker 1: They've had some serious issues in the overall season numbers,

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Speaker 1: but as far as lining up and running multiple tight set,

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Speaker 1: they're not having issues with that, and they are top

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Speaker 1: forty and havoc allowed, so they're not shooting themselves in

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Speaker 1: the foot. So when I switch over to Oklahoma, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is the number one passing success rate offense in

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Speaker 1: the nation. That's good. That's a good thing. Dylan Gabriel

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00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,559
Speaker 1: has been fantastic. But the issue is that is Iowa

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Speaker 1: State's sweet spot on defense. They're fifteenth and passing success

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Speaker 1: rate D, they're fifteenth and coverage grading per PFF, they

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Speaker 1: don't allow big plays. To me, this scream's under I

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Speaker 1: mean it's already forty eight forty eight and a game

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Speaker 1: of OU. I mean you have to go back and

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Speaker 1: really dissect that S and U box score to find

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Speaker 1: like six seven consecutive punts. I mean, I pirridy the

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Speaker 1: game twenty a half, so it's right there on the edge.

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Speaker 1: It looks like it's not coming back up to twenty

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Speaker 1: and a half twenty one if there's some steam on

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Speaker 1: Saturday morning. I'll happily hop in an Iowa state. I

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Speaker 1: think the game goes under and I power rate Texas

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Speaker 1: OU next week in about seven and a half in

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00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,599
Speaker 1: favor of Texas. If OU does not look good in

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Speaker 1: this game, I think that opener is definitely going to

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Speaker 1: be seven and a half. Eight and a half in

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Speaker 1: favor of the Horns.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if they look great and Texas struggles, you could

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Speaker 2: maybe be then you get like a four and a

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Speaker 2: half five Yeah, but yeah, I'm around a touchdown as well.

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Speaker 2: The other big game next week in Alabama Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M. Before those teams get to that SEC showdown,

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Speaker 2: they first have to go on the road. Well, not

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Speaker 2: at home Texas A and M on a neutral field,

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Speaker 2: but Alabama will head on the road to Stark, Vegas

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00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 2: to take on Mississippi State. Fourteen and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorites here, I'm right on this number. I'm not a

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Speaker 2: fan of this Mississippi State team. Not a team I'm

290
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,640
Speaker 2: looking to back. But Alabama. Look, their defense is great,

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00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,800
Speaker 2: they showed up last week. It's still an offense that's

292
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:05,160
Speaker 2: got some work to do. Not that explosive, not a

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00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:08,720
Speaker 2: team that in a you know, a difficult sandwich spot

294
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 2: that I'm looking to lay over two touchdowns with on

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Speaker 2: the road sandwiches in a game that you would expect it,

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Speaker 2: You'll get Mississippi State's best effort. This is a pass

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Speaker 2: for me. Please tell me that you're not betting Mississippi

298
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Speaker 2: State again.

299
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Speaker 1: I am banned from betting on Missippi State. Although I

300
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:26,240
Speaker 1: make the game.

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Speaker 2: That's on the live show, you can you can bet

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Speaker 2: on my pod man.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you I bring the best. I've brought the

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00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,880
Speaker 1: best on Saturday. I think the question is how Diessissippi

305
00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,040
Speaker 1: State score here. I mean it's a balanced attack, but

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00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 1: they're outside the top one hundred and passing success right,

307
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:41,880
Speaker 1: and I don't think you're going to exactly want to

308
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,000
Speaker 1: line up and run into that Alabama defense. Plus Jrquavius

309
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 1: marks last I read questionable day to day. I mean,

310
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,040
Speaker 1: if he's not there, I'm not sure what weapons Misissippi

311
00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 1: State has outside of you know what Will Rogers was

312
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,240
Speaker 1: going to do, So the ground game might be completely gone.

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00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,200
Speaker 1: Go to the other side of the ball. Jalen Milrose

314
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,080
Speaker 1: dinged up, so this becomes a complete under game. If

315
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,160
Speaker 1: he's not under center, and Ty Simpson is to me,

316
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 1: I don't see many points coming out of that, but

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00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:08,840
Speaker 1: it's a sixty three percent rush rate. They're living on

318
00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 1: Roydale Williams. Jace McClellan is He's created twenty seven missed tackles.

319
00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 1: He's close to being the most elusive back in the country.

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Speaker 1: The number is not good. If Milrod's not playing. I

321
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 1: want to take the under in this game Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: What scares me is that I talked about Kansas Bey

323
00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,120
Speaker 1: in second to last and defensive finishing drives like they

324
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 1: let everybody score a touchdown. Mississippi State is dead last

325
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,760
Speaker 1: and defensive finishing drives. You're not going to cover games.

326
00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 1: You're not gonna win anything if you're dead last allowing

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00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:35,920
Speaker 1: everyone to score a touchdown when they cross the forty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Missisippi State with school Rogers. So there, go back

329
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: to the air raate alrip Michael eached to go. Yeah,

330
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 2: I agree. If Milra is not in there, look looks

331
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,040
Speaker 2: like a dead shot under. I also would probably take

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00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,280
Speaker 2: Mississippi State catching fourteen and a half. If we're back

333
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,680
Speaker 2: to the tie show Texas A and m oh Boy

334
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 2: against Darkotsas Texa in a big news is Connor Reegman

335
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 2: is out for the season. They're starting quarterback. I think

336
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 2: this is the third straight season that Texas A and

337
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 2: M has lost its starting quarterback to an injury. Max Johnson, though,

338
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,119
Speaker 2: came in last week and looked really good, and they

339
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,159
Speaker 2: do have a really good backup. They're one of you know,

340
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,399
Speaker 2: if you had a right teams as far as like

341
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,639
Speaker 2: backup quarterback security, Texas A and M certainly would be

342
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 2: up there. They will take on an Arkansas team that

343
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 2: gave LSU a fight. They've been in some weird games

344
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 2: this year. It's been a week. I can't figure out

345
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 2: really who Arkansas is. I can tell you that the

346
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 2: Alvins lines been really well. KJJ Jefferson has like eighteen

347
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 2: years to throw, so he's getting a ton of protection.

348
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,639
Speaker 2: What will this Texas A and M offense look like

349
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,440
Speaker 2: with Max Johnson and they're not going to miss a beat.

350
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 2: I don't have a great feel for this game. This

351
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:49,440
Speaker 2: is all you Texas A and M Arkansas in Arlington.

352
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 2: Colin on the Hoggs, what's the what's the look here?

353
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 2: And how do you break this one down?

354
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 1: Woo Pig Sully.

355
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 2: Absolute dumpster fined dumps. I don't know how win a

356
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 2: game the rest of the year, just blowing program up.

357
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:08,120
Speaker 1: Give us a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football, Well,

358
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,040
Speaker 1: Arkansas corrected a lot of things in between BYU and LSU.

359
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,200
Speaker 1: Now you got Raheem Sanders practicing with the ones this week.

360
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,119
Speaker 1: Looks like he's going to play. That might be a

361
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 1: reason why the six and a half is down to six.

362
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 1: But the news of Max Johnson taking over Connor Wegman

363
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 1: no effect on the market. Now the under did, the

364
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,399
Speaker 1: under did take a little hit about a point and

365
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,359
Speaker 1: a half, But the drop to Max Johnson is like,

366
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 1: that's not really a drop. He faced Arkansas last year,

367
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 1: He faced Arkansas in twenty twenty one when he was

368
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,240
Speaker 1: at LSU, so this is nothing new to him to

369
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 1: be lining up against the Razorbacks. Bobby Patrino is one

370
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,159
Speaker 1: of the best quarterback coaches in the nation, and I

371
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,200
Speaker 1: think that what you saw the progression of Connor Reagman

372
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 1: is what you're going to see with Max Johnson, who

373
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 1: sadly has never had an offensive line ever protect him

374
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,680
Speaker 1: wherever he's been. So Patrino is another factor in here.

375
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 1: He called plays against Arkansas at Missouri State last year

376
00:18:55,880 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 1: dominated led in the fourth quarter against the Razor. I

377
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 1: know it was a down, made you wear a neck brace,

378
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 1: made me wear a neck brace on a podcast. The

379
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 1: game is really interesting because these defenses are really emulating

380
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,399
Speaker 1: each other. They're heavy on havoc, they're light on stopping explosives.

381
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: Both these defenses are tenth to eleventh in defensive havoc.

382
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: I mean they are that good, but they are bottom

383
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 1: twenty defending pass explosives and passing downs. These two defenses

384
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 1: are an absolute mess. To me, this game is over

385
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 1: all the way. Max Johnson is not a drop off.

386
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 1: That offense is going to be able to take advantage

387
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 1: of an Arkansas defense that is two aggressive looking to

388
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 1: blitz all the time. They're only leaving one safety. Max

389
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 1: Johnson is going to be able to throw back there.

390
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 1: On the offensive side, Raheem Sanders is going to go

391
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 1: up against the Texas A and in defense that's ninety

392
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 1: six then tackling that's not going to work, and they don't.

393
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 1: They're not very good in coverage either, and I think

394
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 1: kJ is going to be able to connect with his targets.

395
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 1: To me, this is an over game all the way.

396
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 1: We've been being out and dropping this total makes it

397
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 1: even better. You can't put it in a spreadsheet, stuck.

398
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 1: But what this game is is an immense amount of

399
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: defensive havoc and busted plays on passing downs explosives. To me,

400
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 1: that equals points. So I'm taking the over end this game.

401
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 1: As far as the side goes, I mean I projected,

402
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 1: so I think Texas A and M wins this game.

403
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 1: I think the game lands directly on seven. Some really

404
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 1: interesting things happening on the Hill this week. Sam Pittman

405
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 1: talking about he deleted his Twitter in caase so media.

406
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's been talking about social media at deleted it.

407
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 1: He's got some players that are having some mental health

408
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 1: issues because of social media. I think people that are

409
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 1: sharing Sam Pittman's large chest on social media really got

410
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: to him. He unplugged it, said that he didn't want

411
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 1: to turn it back on, but I think Hunter y'ercheck

412
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 1: the Hey athletic directors making him turn it back on home.

413
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 1: I hate to go against the Razorbacks. I'm gonna end

414
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: up playing Texas A and M because Arkansas right now

415
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: is desperate, desperate for a conference when two losses straight

416
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,200
Speaker 1: and they're talking mental health, and that to me brings

417
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 1: the entire team together. They feel like they're in a

418
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 1: corner and they need to win. I understand all that,

419
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:03,399
Speaker 1: but Texas A and M is just going to be

420
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 1: better at explosives and havoc. LSU's not fading.

421
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,959
Speaker 2: You're not fading, Patrino. I was gonna do a neck

422
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 2: break bet.

423
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 1: Not fading, Patrino. I'm taking Texas A and M.

424
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 2: Before we get to the Marquie matchups. As a reminder,

425
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 2: the BBOC podcast is presented by BEDAMGM use bonus code

426
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: action when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred

427
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00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:31,720
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429
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,840
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00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,680
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431
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 2: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

432
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: get to the Marquee matchups of the weekend. It's another

433
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 2: fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out the marquee matchups,

434
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 2: we'll all end up betting for a week. All Right,

435
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 2: We are going to start with the potential funeral of Colorado.

436
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 2: The reason I say that is, you know, it's probably

437
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 2: the last time that we'll cover them and they'll get

438
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 2: this much attention because after this, you know they'll have

439
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 2: two losses number one, But then they play Arizona State

440
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 2: on PAC twelve network and they play like Stanford on

441
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: a Friday night at like eleven at night, and the

442
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 2: hype's about to die down. The matchups are about to

443
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 2: get way worse. So this is the last there's like

444
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: jay Z is gonna be here? Who else did I see?

445
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 2: Like it's crazy the amount of celebrities, Wayne Wayne Obama.

446
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 2: I think if I was reading a bunch of names,

447
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 2: it's going to be pretty wild.

448
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 1: Dion Sanders, Deon Sanders, Dion Sander Beyon, Dion saluting.

449
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 4: As he goes.

450
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 1: Wouldn't you know he'd find the one.

451
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 2: USC is a twenty one and a half point favorite

452
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 2: year over under seventy three and a half, which I

453
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 2: still think is maybe a bit short. Big question here is, Look,

454
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 2: we know the USC offense is they're gonna score, They're

455
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 2: gonna score against almost anybody. This is basically this is

456
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: just the Oklahoma team. So we've seen Heisman quarterback, elite offense,

457
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,479
Speaker 2: the same tired Alex Grinch defense that Lincoln Riley refuses

458
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 2: to do anything about. The defense has major questions against

459
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 2: Arizona State last week. Arizona State a team that got

460
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 2: shut out by Fresno State the week before and shut

461
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 2: out for the first time at homestince nineteen eighty eight

462
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: in a game where they had eight turnovers and used

463
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 2: thirty seven quarterbacks, an NCAA record. They were then in

464
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 2: the game with USC last week and I think it

465
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 2: was thirty five to twenty eight. Like in late third quarter,

466
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: early fourth quarter, Arizona State suddenly found an offense. So

467
00:23:55,280 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 2: my opinion on this game, I'm kind of on the number. Look,

468
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 2: the Colorado defense stinks, The offensive line isn't very good.

469
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 2: You know, it's Travis Hunter is still not there. How

470
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 2: much energy can these kids keep having and like all

471
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 2: all the spectacle, maybe it works against them against these

472
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 2: like really talented teams that now have motivation that got

473
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: Oregon did last week. But like this is just that

474
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 2: this is a big number for a team with the

475
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: suspect defense on the road to cover, and even if

476
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 2: it's a blowout, like if it's fifty six twenty eight,

477
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: that's a blowout, Colorado can go down the field and

478
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 2: get in the back door, making that hook uber important.

479
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 2: So I don't have a strong field in this game.

480
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 2: I don't think I'll be betting it, but if I

481
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 2: had to, I think, as of right now, I take

482
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: the twenty one in the hook. What are your thoughts here?

483
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: I bet twenty six on open, I bet twenty four

484
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 1: and a half. I bet twenty one and a half

485
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: all on Colorado. That's my last number. All by is

486
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 1: twenty one and a half. It's tough not to overreact

487
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: to the Arizona State box score with USC. We knew

488
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: the number was too high. I mean, it was ten

489
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: points above the power for USC and Arizona State.

490
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 2: It was a joke. I'm so upset I didn't play.

491
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,479
Speaker 2: I was waiting on a thirty five. They were priced

492
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 2: as like a UMass.

493
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: Here we go. Like I said at the top of

494
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 1: the show, the strength of schedule for USC is one

495
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: hundred and thirtieth. The offenses You've played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford,

496
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: and Arizona State. Their average offensive rank per SPPLUS is

497
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: one hundred and fourth. They have not faced an offense

498
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: with any firepower. When you look at big plays, coverage,

499
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: tackle grading, all in scope, it's been really poor for USC.

500
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 1: USC has some serious deficiencies on the defensive side, and

501
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: they almost always show up in passing downs.

502
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 2: Now by the way, Nevada, San Jose State, Stanford and

503
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: Arizona State and their other games have done absolutely nothing

504
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 2: and have looked horrendous.

505
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, there is a window for Colorado and Shadur Sanders

506
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 1: to continue being explosives and passing downs because that's all

507
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: they've been. They can't run the ball. They're always eleven

508
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: yards to go on third downs and they always convert

509
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 1: half of them. And so the formula that USC's defense

510
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: is is actually perfect for what Colorado has been doing.

511
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: Through the first month of play. Colorado's number one in

512
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: passing down success rate. I was shocked by that. And

513
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: the one thing I couldn't get over is the penalties

514
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: in this game. Penalties and if you like flags, USC

515
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: is one hundred and twenty fourth in the nation and

516
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 1: penalties Colorado is one hundred and twenty sixth in the

517
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: nation and penalties. But where it gets really interesting and

518
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: what I'm going to be watching for this weekend. Colorado

519
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: is number one opponent penalties, which means their teams are

520
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: being flagged more than anybody else in the nation. I'm

521
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 1: taking Colorado to cover based on the USC defense, especially

522
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: in passing downs against the explosive play. I've heard a

523
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 1: lot of people go out there and say USC's gonna

524
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: score fifty. They're gonna score fifty. Yeah they might, but

525
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: you know what, I bet Shdor Sanders and passing downs

526
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: can score thirty on this defense. Arizona State didn't have

527
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: a problem with it. Twenty one half where I.

528
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 2: Stopped buying all right, we after fading Colorado and back

529
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,360
Speaker 2: to back weeks, Colin is back on the band. Maybe

530
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 2: I'll throw some couch change on it for the noon game.

531
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: But let's get to a game where I do have

532
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 2: money on and I can't wait to make a case

533
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 2: for this one. Auburn plus fourteen and a half at

534
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: home against Georgia. This game's at three thirty Eastern on CBS.

535
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: Total has come down from forty nine and a half

536
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 2: to forty five and a half. I expect that to

537
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,479
Speaker 2: keep coming down. In two games against Power five opponents,

538
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 2: Auburn has thrown for one hundred and fifty combined yards.

539
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: One hundred and fifty. So I bet them plus fourteen

540
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 2: and a half. Why and how will they score? Why?

541
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 2: Because I'm an idiot. How will they score? I don't know?

542
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: But here's the case. I'll try to make Number one.

543
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 2: They need to get better quarterback bay Peyton Norton is

544
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 2: probably gonna get the start again. He has been inconsistent

545
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 2: throughout his whole career. So we'll go off good days,

546
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 2: bad days. You gotta hope that you just get a

547
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: good peyt thorn. There's been guys open. It's a hug

548
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,959
Speaker 2: freeze offense. He's just got to hit them and then

549
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 2: I assume he's gonna have a short leash end or

550
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 2: Robbie Ashurtz probably still going to have some heavy rpo packages. Regardless,

551
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 2: it's Auburn's gonna rely on its rushing attack. You have

552
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 2: a three headed monster in the backfield rush, right.

553
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: That's all they do.

554
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what they're gonna do. At Jarquez, Hunter, Jamario Austin,

555
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: Brian Matt and then sometimes Ashford. They're going to just

556
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 2: try to run, grind this game down, then take some

557
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: play action shots. You can probably see a trick player

558
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 2: two in this game. Early on, I would imagine they're

559
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: going to rely on their defense. But for what it's worth,

560
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: basically underlying metrics, it looks like how you want to attack.

561
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: This Georgia team is on the ground so far from

562
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 2: what I've seen, and even though they haven't played anyone,

563
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 2: they played Cupcake Cupcake State. But why so, why did

564
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: I Why did I play Auburn?

565
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 4: Well?

566
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: Number one, I made I only have these teams separated

567
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 2: by a touchd two touchdowns on a neutral field, so

568
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: then at throwing home field, and now you're gonna give me.

569
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: You know, I'm closer to to uh well not quite

570
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 2: closer to one touchdown, but you're you're you're gonna give me.

571
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: When I make this like ten and a half eleven,

572
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take over two touchdowns every time. I also

573
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a super low scoring game, which

574
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 2: makes catching over two touchdowns at home even more intriguing.

575
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 2: And weird things happen at Jordan hare Man. I mean,

576
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 2: they just they just do it. I wouldn't be shocked

577
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 2: the Auburn won this game out right. I mean, I've

578
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 2: seen worse Auburn teams pull off bigger upsets or close

579
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 2: two bigger upsets in this spot in Georgia. Just looks

580
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: a little off.

581
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: I don't know.

582
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: Carson Beck's been okay, not spectacular. I think they really

583
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 2: do miss Todd Monkin, but they haven't really been tested

584
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 2: and they played South Carolina the look horrendous at home.

585
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 2: Other than that, they haven't covered yet. Just something as

586
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 2: little off. I think it's just maybe general complacency. You

587
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 2: won back to back national titles, and you know your

588
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 2: schedule is a joke, so they keep coming out so

589
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 2: flat and then like they eventually get going, but you

590
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 2: can't keep getting away with that on the road in

591
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: the SEC. And this is the first roads art for

592
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: Carson Beck, who I'm he can prove a lot to

593
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: me here and I still am not a full believer

594
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 2: in him, but I just think this number is too high.

595
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: I'm gonna trust Freeze to there's no elite team this year.

596
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 2: That's why top five teams are four thirteen and two

597
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 2: against the spread. I think the new clock rules too.

598
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 2: And for what it's worth, you Freeze twenty six and

599
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 2: twelve against the spread as an underdog at sixty eight

600
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 2: and a half percent, covering by six and a half

601
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: points per game. He's nine and two against the spread

602
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 2: when catching more than two touchdowns. He's won three of

603
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: the past four games outright when catching more than two touchdowns.

604
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 3: Big Red to start the game, but at halftime, if

605
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 3: things aren't going so well, we're gonna go to Pazuka.

606
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 2: Auburn is a home conference underdog forty two thirty and

607
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: one against the spread fifty eight and a half percent

608
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: since two thousand and five. I think this numbers too high.

609
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 2: You're gonna give me over two touchdowns. I'm in, We're eagle.

610
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 1: I'm in. But I'm taking a different route. Like like

611
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 1: I said before, I took a different path, I'm gonna

612
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,040
Speaker 1: be on the same thing and I'm gonna try to

613
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: limit my damages here. Listen as far as the coaching goes,

614
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 1: why Todd Munkin was so special was not just because

615
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: of the offensive design and the offensive play calling. He

616
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: was one of the few coordinators that had the ability

617
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: to change after a drive what the offense was going

618
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: to execute. He could install something completely different, drive to

619
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: drive to drive. When you go down to Mike Bobo,

620
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: you lose that ability. And so when you see South

621
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: Carolina fourteen to three, Mike Bobo doesn't have a minimu

622
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: as an offensive coordinator other than go out there, line up.

623
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: My beef is bigger than yours. I'm gonna run over

624
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: you that I mean, that's it. That's all we've seen.

625
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: These in game adjustments have been poor, and that goes

626
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: back to coaching. Now, as far as this game goes,

627
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: it seems like the Bulldogs are sleeping or they're in

628
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: a funk. Georgia allowed thirty five points at UAB and

629
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: South Carolina in the last two games. That's weird. I

630
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 1: didn't see Trent Dill for going in there and getting

631
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:56,959
Speaker 1: two touchdowns. Within learning comes reflecting, pouring knowledge and wisdom

632
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: into the cups of our leaders. Auburn can't take advancevage

633
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: of their atrocious offensive line play, and I think that's

634
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 1: where Hugh Freeze really kind of laid it out in

635
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: his presser this week. He's listen, it's not that Peyton

636
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: Thorn and Robbie Ashurd have been bad. It's the fact

637
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: that they haven't had an opportunity to play quarterback because

638
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: you know, they've got a pressure pocket all the time.

639
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: So I went into peyton Thorn's numbers and I was

640
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: just blown away. He has a pressure to sack ratio

641
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: over fifty percent, right, that leads the nation. And you

642
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 1: know what, it's not even close over fifty percent pressure

643
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: to sack ratio for peyton Thorn. Second place in all

644
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: of college football is Grant Wilson of Old Dominion thirty

645
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 1: eight percent. Like a fifteen percent drop, Like that's how

646
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: much peyton Thorn is getting pressured. Now. I think there's

647
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: a window of opportunity here for Auburn. And what is it.

648
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: Georgia doesn't send blitz. They don't send five, six, seven guys.

649
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: They never do. They try to create pressure before they

650
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: play quarters defense with seven and I don't think that's

651
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 1: going to change in this game. So does that mean that,

652
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: for once and for all, can those five offensive lineman

653
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: blocked the four down linement of Georgia and give peyton

654
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: Thorn a little bit more time to make decisions? Carson Beck,

655
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: you mentioned he's been pretty good six to one td

656
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: I in t his turnover worthy play rate is less

657
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: than one percent. That tells me he's making really great decisions.

658
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: But like I said, Bobo's calling the plays and he's

659
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: not changing the script, and he's not maximizing what Carson

660
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: Beck is Auburn. Now here's where I think Auburn can excel.

661
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: They have two shut down corners, Kay and Lee and

662
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,719
Speaker 1: DJ James. I do not see Carson Beck throwing out

663
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 1: to the whiteouts here I see. I see Auburn corners,

664
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 1: you know, going one on one. Maybe the middle of

665
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: the field is open. I don't know, but I think

666
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 1: this turns out. I think they get frustrated with it,

667
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 1: and Bobo says, just line up and run the ball.

668
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: I want to back Auburn, but I'm scared of the

669
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: offensive line and the havoc allowed have it allowed rank

670
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteenth because Georgia for some reason is

671
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: asleep in the first quarter. I'm going to bet Auburn

672
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: first quarter, first half, and full game all at half units.

673
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: I can't do another scoop and sax scoop and score

674
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,959
Speaker 1: home under the double digits. Like I've just been burned

675
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: so many times to share, But I'm gonna split it up.

676
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be with you, but I'm gonna go first half,

677
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: in first quarter too.

678
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: All right, I'll join you there. My prediction, and I

679
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: look like a genius the other week on all my predictions,

680
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: so maybe I can clip this. I said, I will

681
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 2: be up ten to nothing my prediction. Here Auburn scores

682
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: to take the lead in the first quarter on a

683
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: trick play. That is my prediction. Let's stay in the

684
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 2: SEC and head to Oxford, where Ole Miss will host

685
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 2: LSU in a battle of three and one teams where

686
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 2: the loser here will pretty much be dunzo for any

687
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: college football playoff or national title aspirations.

688
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: Ole Miss, this is your West Division versus my college

689
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: football playoff LSU. Right here?

690
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 2: Yeap Ole Miss two and a half three shop around

691
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 2: as always point underdog here over under as the overs

692
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 2: taking money up the sixty seven and a half, and

693
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 2: that does make sense. I love Ole Miss here, so

694
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 2: I'll explain why. I mean, Look, the LSU offense has

695
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,720
Speaker 2: looked the part, and the Old Miss defense has improved

696
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: under peak Golding, especially against the run, but it's still

697
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: not an elite unit. LSU should put up points here,

698
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 2: but I also think Old Miss can go bananas on offense.

699
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 2: The offense hasn't been that crisp at times, but they've

700
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: not been at full strength. I mean, quincheown Judkins has

701
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: been hurt. He finally said this week he's now he

702
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 2: thinks he's basically up to one hundred percent. That's a

703
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 2: really good sign. They've also played pretty much the entire

704
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: season without their three of their most important weapons in

705
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 2: Zakari Franklin, Cayden pre Scorn, and Trey Harris. All of

706
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 2: them were listed as doubtful last week against Alabama. All

707
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: of them play, but they actually all three of them

708
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 2: got in the game limited, but they got in the game. Franklin,

709
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 2: pre scoring, Harris all practicing this week. I think Harris

710
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 2: can be like seventy percent. Franklin apparently is at one

711
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 2: hundred percent, which is a good sign. So now you're

712
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 2: gonna get like this, the full with Judkins healthy, the

713
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:23,280
Speaker 2: full old miss Arsenal, which they haven't really had. More importantly,

714
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: the LSU defense stinks. I mean they're outside the top

715
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: one hundred. You name a category, they're outside the top

716
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 2: one hundred. They're also bottom bottom ten nationally, and defensive

717
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 2: explosiveness ole miss top ten even without even with all

718
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 2: those injuries that I just mentioned. So look this to me.

719
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: This is this almost mirrors Clemson Florida State and how

720
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 2: I'm approaching this game. I could see, I'll see win

721
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 2: in this game. Sure I could come down the last

722
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 2: team with the ball. I think both team are gonna score.

723
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 2: But I'll take the three and the plus sign with

724
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: the team that I make a small favorite in a

725
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: game that I think will be right. Last week I

726
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 2: had Clemson plus two and a half. Would that make

727
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 2: that bet at trillion times? If they had a sixty

728
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: five percent postgame? Would expect see they gave up the

729
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 2: defensive touchdown, never trailed until overtime. Make that bet again.

730
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: That could happen here. But I'm happy to take this.

731
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 2: I make all Miss a small favor, like tiny, tiny favorite.

732
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 2: But this offense now at full strength. You know last

733
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 2: week it was Alabama season at home with the top

734
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: five defense. This LSU defense is lost. I knew the

735
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 2: second dive was gonna have problems. I didn't expect this

736
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 2: entire unit to struggle as much as it has. And

737
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 2: for what it's worth, since two thousand and five, Ole

738
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 2: Miss the most profitable underdog by a wide margin against

739
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 2: top five league opponents twenty eight and fourteen against the spread,

740
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 2: including fifteen and eight against the numbers sixty five and

741
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 2: a half percent in Oxford. So yeah, I think that

742
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 2: this should be a pick, and I think basically it's

743
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,479
Speaker 2: just like you score, I score, you score, I score.

744
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: Who has the ball last wins? So happy to take

745
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: the three year.

746
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is your live betting bonanza of the day.

747
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: I definitely will be trading plus sevens if I can

748
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,320
Speaker 1: get them on both teams and this, but to me,

749
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: this is a peer over. You mentioned it. These LSU

750
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: numbers are so bad that it's laughable. It's like, I

751
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 1: don't know.

752
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 2: How everything's outside the top one.

753
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: Hundred, and you know, I mean, I know there's strength

754
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: of schedules, top twenty five, but I mean, come on,

755
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 1: so look, just to add Jayden Daniels, LSU's offense top

756
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 1: ten rank, nearly everything, top twenty five, strength of schedule,

757
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: So it's legit. What Jayden Daniels is doing this year

758
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 1: is heisman worthy. They've just got to win some games

759
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 1: and they got to cover up what's going on in

760
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: the defense. Think about ole miss is just unable to

761
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: generate a pass rush. They're one hundred and twelfth in

762
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 1: defensive stuff right. That means Logan Diggs is going to

763
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: be able to create explosives and run all day. Ole

764
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 1: Miss is forty ninth and defensive quality drives and LSU

765
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 1: is second offensively, which means LSU is going to score

766
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of points. Old Miss same advantages by far.

767
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 2: You know, I think that's old Bitch is There's gonna

768
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: be a ton of explosives in this game, like explosive

769
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 2: scoring plays, so like without the clock moving, like this

770
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 2: just should be just a complete shootout.

771
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 1: Well, there's gonna be no resistance for old Miss and

772
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 1: passing downs. Let's just say for some reason, Judkins comes

773
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:25,919
Speaker 1: out there and he's still averaging two yards of carry

774
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 1: and he's still hurt. LSU has is atrocious in passing

775
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: downs and ole Miss is pretty good. So LSU's defense

776
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: one hundred and twentyth and success rate in passing downs

777
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighteenth and allowing explosives. Don't worry, Old

778
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 1: Miss if you fail on first and second down, ls's

779
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 1: gonna give you a gift on third down. So I

780
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 1: missed the key numbers on the total sixty five sixty six.

781
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: I just slammed a bed in. I slammed it on

782
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: the Action app. You know, the biggest key numbers in

783
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: this range, I guess are kind of sixty five, sixty six.

784
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 1: They hit in two point two percent of college football games.

785
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 1: I'm playing the over on sixty seven, and I'm happy

786
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 1: with that. I would play I projected at seventy one.

787
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if the clock matters here, considering ole

788
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 1: Miss runs twenty two seconds per play, considering LSU's kind

789
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: of bumped up a little bit in their speed, and

790
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 1: I don't see either defense stop in the other. So

791
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: over in the game, and I'm gonna live trade. Good

792
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 1: luck on your bet. I'm gonna live trade and try

793
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 1: to get both teams at least plus four, hopefully plus

794
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: seven on both.

795
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'd also mentioned that this could be a good

796
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 2: live over if ole Miss gets the ball first, goes

797
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 2: right down the field and Lane pulls, a Lane goes

798
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 2: for it on fourth down, doesn't get it live total drops,

799
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 2: and then you can get an even better number.

800
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 1: Yeah.

801
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 2: So that's why I hate betting ole Miss as a

802
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 2: favorite and prefer them as a dog, because just that

803
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 2: lane fourth down variance. So yeah, that happens early, you know,

804
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,359
Speaker 2: and you get because then you might get a couple

805
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: of stall drive you get a couple of stall drives

806
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 2: earlier because of fourth downs late in the game, you

807
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 2: might get a couple of touchdowns instead of field goals

808
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 2: because Lane is doing that. So that could also be

809
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 2: another live overlook at that happens early on. Or if

810
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 2: like LSU goes down the field and decides to vomit

811
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 2: near the goal line like they did against Fluida State,

812
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 2: that could be another opportunity tend to get in and

813
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:18,800
Speaker 2: a live over.

814
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 1: And just a you know, a marker for everybody. I'm

815
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 1: looking at the piece I did this summer on the

816
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 1: biggest key totals in total, bigg key numbers in totals,

817
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: which in this range sixty five fifty nine, and then

818
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 1: of course the biggest numbers fifty five. So this use

819
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: sixty five to fifty nine in your live betting total

820
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 1: over total.

821
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,439
Speaker 2: All right, moving on to a final Marquee game. Oh

822
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:50,720
Speaker 2: Don Pipes Pipe Notre Dame Duke. The Irish will travel

823
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 2: down to Dorm to face the four and oh Blue

824
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: Devils in a top twenty battle. How boring it was

825
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 2: going to be five and a half point favorite totals

826
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 2: come down to fifty three. I can't crack this game

827
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 2: because one it's do does Notre Dame get off the bus?

828
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 2: They should have beat Ohio State and they didn't. Just

829
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 2: a devastating loss. Now you're going down to Duke. Do

830
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: they are they inspired? Do they come out flat? I

831
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,800
Speaker 2: don't know the answer to that. From a matchup perspective,

832
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 2: I actually see some advantages from Notre Dame. If you

833
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 2: go back to that Clemson game. The Duke defense in

834
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 2: the pass defense has been really good and Elko's he's

835
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 2: gonna have them well schooled with a great game plan

836
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 2: here and he won't make he'll have eleven guys on

837
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 2: the field. So big coaching advantage the Duke here. But

838
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 2: you know, when you go back to that Clemson game,

839
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 2: Clemson was able to just pound Duke right and they

840
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 2: were just running. They had no explosives, but they were

841
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 2: able to run down the field. And Notre Dame can

842
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 2: do that here. So I see that as an advanced

843
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 2: from Notre Dame. On the other side of the ball,

844
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 2: the Duke offensive line is not excelling and run blocking

845
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 2: they and you can't really pass on Notre Dame and

846
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: there's secondary has been so good. Now Riley Leonard his legs,

847
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: that's the wild card here because then he can keep

848
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 2: draws alive. He can get your third downs. There's always

849
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 2: so much EPA and these these quarterbacks who can run

850
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: and are mobile that can get first downs on third downs.

851
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, I see some advantages for Notre Dame, but

852
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 2: I think do go have a better game plan. They're

853
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 2: gonna definitely be more motivated. I know that they're going

854
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 2: to show up for this game. So this is a

855
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 2: pass for me. I can I think you hint it

856
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 2: at the under which I can see for sure. What

857
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 2: are you seeing here? Because I do think Notre Dames

858
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 2: is gonna come out and then just try to grind

859
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 2: this game on the ground throughout. And well that's he's

860
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,839
Speaker 2: been so good, which is what you want against Duke.

861
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 1: The first thing I did. I mean, I really try

862
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: to look at history when I'm trying to interpret, overlook, hangover,

863
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 1: stuff like that, and it's a limited sample with Marcus Freeman,

864
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 1: but when you do look at it. In twenty twenty two,

865
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 1: they played ohiuse they lost twenty one to ten. What

866
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 1: happened the next week they lost to Marshall. They faced

867
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 1: number sixteen BYU at home. They won twenty eight to twenty.

868
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:09,760
Speaker 1: What happened in the next week they lost to Stanford,

869
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: a team to finish three and nine. And you know,

870
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 1: of course, they played Clemson number five Clemson last year

871
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: they beat him thirty five to fourteen at home in

872
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 1: Notre Dame Stadium. What happened the next week against Navy

873
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 1: they only won by three. So if you want to

874
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,880
Speaker 1: go off Marcus Freeman off of big games against ranked

875
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: teams last year, it doesn't look good. It looks like

876
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 1: this one's going to be ultra tight. Now, this game's

877
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: in a dead area five and a half. I'm not

878
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 1: putting any action on five and a half, but you know,

879
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 1: you got to think this is a huge game for

880
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: Mike Elko, considering that he coached. He was the reason

881
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: they turned around a four and eight season. Is when

882
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: he got hired by Brian Kelly to come in there.

883
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 1: Duke has allowed thirty five points in four games so

884
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: far to Clemson, Lafayette, Northwestern and Yukon. Notre Dame should

885
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: have no issues running the ball here because with that

886
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 1: schedule that I just mentioned. Duke's ninety nine and rushing

887
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 1: success rate on defense, and so that is where Audric

888
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 1: estimate is just gonna be able to line up and

889
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 1: run over and which Clemson did. What's Clemson's problem.

890
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,840
Speaker 2: They choked in the red, fumbled fumbled to eight times

891
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 2: inside the five.

892
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: Clubnicks killing me, Man clubnicks killing me on Saturdays anyways.

893
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 1: So the best part of Duke's defense is the secondary,

894
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 1: their second per PFF and coverage, their second limiting explosive plays.

895
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 1: They've been really good against the pass. And if you

896
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 1: dive into Sam Hartman's history, he's torn Duke apart three

897
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 1: tds to one I in T three forty seven last year,

898
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 1: four hundred yards a year before No I INT's but

899
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 1: that wasn't against Elco. So I don't think Hartman's going

900
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 1: to pass though. I don't see this as an aired

901
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: out game. I see this as an Audric estimate. One

902
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards. He averages four point six yards

903
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 1: after contact. That's going to be a problem for Duke's defense.

904
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 1: This is all going to happen on the ground. But

905
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: as I say that, I could not believe what I

906
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 1: read in Duke's numbers on the ground. Now they run

907
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the time. And I love Jordan Waters.

908
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: He has seven touchdowns this year and he averages four

909
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: point four yards after contact. But did you know that

910
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 1: Riley Leonards created double the amount of mistackles as Jordan Waters.

911
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: That is insane to me. That is like nobody is

912
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 1: able to get their arms around Riley Leonard and keep

913
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 1: them down. So I just see this completely on the ground.

914
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 1: I see Notre Dame being checked out, and I'll be

915
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 1: interested in Duke when you get to six and a half. God,

916
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: i'd love a seven. I don't think that's ever gonna pop.

917
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would take Duke. I would take Duke plus seven,

918
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 2: But then I wouldn't I wouldn't take it live because

919
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: that means that Notre Dame has come out very motivated,

920
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 2: like if they come down and score a touchdown. But

921
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 2: I would love to get a seven pre.

922
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 1: Game, I might fire on on six. That would you

923
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 1: fire on six? I might fire on six pre game.

924
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: I'm really close close. All right, good stuff there. Before

925
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 2: we move on to our rapid fire section and talk

926
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 2: a handful of more games, I do want to remind

927
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 2: everyone to make sure you check out the group of

928
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: five guys Mike and Mike Mike Calgary's I know, I

929
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: do a great job covering Group of Five and fading

930
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 2: UAB every week, so it's a lot of fun there

931
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 2: with Trent Dilfer. Clips included each week as a bonus

932
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 2: every Wednesday morning here on BBOC check out the Group

933
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 2: of five podcasts talking all Things Group of Five. They

934
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 2: have some love for Yukon too. This week the Yukon

935
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 2: team is bad, bad, but this is probably the spot

936
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,320
Speaker 2: to back them. But I wasn't pressed last week to

937
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 2: Duke went up there and just took care of business,

938
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 2: went up there and just seal clubed them from the start. Michigan,

939
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 2: just very briefly. Their seventeen point favorites at Nebraska total

940
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: thirty nine. I don't know who's who's going to be

941
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 2: the quarterback as if Simms is healthy enough.

942
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:49,359
Speaker 1: I think he practiced all week, but he's being he's

943
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 1: being called hurt. So I explain that to me.

944
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, so you'll get, uh, what's his name?

945
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 1: Harbor Harburg?

946
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 2: Who called Heisman?

947
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: I was actually going to think that this is the

948
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 1: guy that built the super lab for Jesse and Waal

949
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: to cook meth I mean Heinrich Harberg. Yeah, I mean

950
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 1: obviously that's who it is.

951
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:16,720
Speaker 2: Uh So, yeah, with Sims, I would if it was Sims,

952
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 2: I would not ever considered Michigan, I mean Nebraska, because

953
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 2: Michigan would probably get a couple of short fields. But

954
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 2: Michigan hasn't covered this year. They usually cover as big favorites.

955
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 2: Donovan Edwards doesn't look like himself. McCarthy started off so well,

956
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 2: he looked so sharp, and then he went what eight

957
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 2: of thirteen with three picks against Bowling Green, which is concerning.

958
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 2: And Michigan just doesn't cover these big numbers. Neither is Georgia.

959
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 2: They're like slower, more methodical teams with the new clock rules.

960
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: These threads are just too high. Like it's like they

961
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 2: get like set seven possessions and then you like throw

962
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 2: one pick. You can't cover. Nebraska's defense is obviously played

963
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 2: well this year, and any interest in continuing the Michigan.

964
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 1: Fade under here not. This isn't under. And I think

965
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:05,919
Speaker 1: the thing that tripped me up was Heinrich Carberg, even

966
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,760
Speaker 1: if he is the one that plays, because he should

967
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,439
Speaker 1: be fully healthy. I mean he tossed forty, he's tossed

968
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: four tds against Colorado nor the Illinois LA Tech. But

969
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 1: where I have a problem is that he's had three fumbles.

970
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 1: So what have you really swamped in for? Jeff Simms

971
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 1: is somebody that fumbles the bowl just as much. It

972
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: is impossible to back Nebraska, even against Michigan, who's stumbling

973
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 1: when they are dead last and havoc allowed nearly dead

974
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 1: last and have a cloud almost there. Michigan's the best

975
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 1: nation defensively in finishing drives. I don't see how Nebraska

976
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: gets points on the board at least enough to get

977
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 1: over the total. So I would say, under time to

978
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:43,040
Speaker 1: take a bigger pike out of this court stalk.

979
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:44,879
Speaker 2: Here's a game. We get me disagreement. So I saw

980
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 2: you put this bet in Purdue Illinois. Make your case

981
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 2: for your boy, Brettallima, and then I'll make the case

982
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 2: for Purdue.

983
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: There's no way Purdue should be favored here. I mean

984
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 1: I projected Illinois minus one, so I'm not, you know,

985
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 1: going out on a huge limb here. But why did

986
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 1: it Purdue open up minus two? They are atrocious on

987
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: defense perdue defense has the worst strength of scheduled resume

988
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: and is near dead last nationally and some of the

989
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 1: key areas tackling, they are allowing explosives, passing down success right,

990
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: and the all important stat that I love, which is

991
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 1: finishing drives perdue is atrocious in all of these And

992
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 1: Luke Altmeyer has had a three hundred yard passing game

993
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: against Florida Atlantic last week. If you take out the

994
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: Penn State game, if you take out the Penn State game,

995
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 1: he's actually got really good numbers. From a big time

996
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 1: throw to a turnover worthy play perspective, Purdue's defense is

997
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: nothing compared to Penn State. So I expect we get

998
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 1: good Luke Altmeyer because you know, I showed up on

999
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: Saturday and bet the bad Luke Altmeyer against Penn State.

1000
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 1: So I don't know what you've got for Purdue. I'd

1001
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 1: love to hear it.

1002
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Number one, I think the Illinois team stinks.

1003
00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 2: Their defense has significantly regressed, which makes sense. They lost

1004
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 2: three defensive backs to the NFL and the top seventy

1005
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 2: five picks of the NFL track. But their defensive front,

1006
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 2: which supposed to be the strength, has not played well.

1007
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a team that's bottom twenty nationally

1008
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 2: the front seven in lineyards stuff for eight and have

1009
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 2: a great They can't stop anyone. This is an Illinois

1010
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 2: team that got dominated by Penn State, dominated by Kansas,

1011
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 2: and they beat Toledo at home by two on a

1012
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 2: miracle fourth down, and they beat Florida Atlantic at home

1013
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 2: by six. Meanwhile Perdue, Look, they've they've been able to

1014
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 2: move the ball up and down the field. They're actually

1015
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 2: four hund yards per game against three Power five teams

1016
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 2: in the four to oh Fresno State team. They just

1017
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 2: haven't been able to finish drives fumble luck. They're like

1018
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 2: one of thirty on fourth down. But I think that

1019
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 2: they found something in the run game last week. And

1020
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 2: look against the Wisconsin they actually out game Wisconsin, but

1021
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 2: just like their whole season, they had three turnovers, they

1022
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 2: were one to four on fourth down. But I just like,

1023
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 2: look this, I like this spot for this Purdue offense.

1024
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to move the ball. And

1025
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 2: I think the the biggest thing here is that Ryan Walters,

1026
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 2: who Illinois also misses their defensive coordinatater he's now the

1027
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 2: head coach of Purdue. He has an extra day they

1028
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 2: played on Friday to prepare for this game. And what

1029
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 2: Bolima wants to do on offense. I think the edge

1030
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 2: goes to him here with the extra day of prep.

1031
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 2: Second straight home game. I have not liked what I've

1032
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 2: seen from Illinois. Perdue has been moving the ball. They've

1033
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 2: just been getting unlucky in Illinois's ninety seventh and passing

1034
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,319
Speaker 2: down success rate. You can just the card is going

1035
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 2: to be able to throw. They're not getting pressure, they're

1036
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: not creating havoc. I Thinkdu' is gonna be able to

1037
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 2: move up and down the field. The Purdue defense hasn't

1038
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 2: been great, so yeah, I'm sure that Illinois is going

1039
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 2: to score. But I'm not an all myer guy. This

1040
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 2: is the most explosive receiving corps in the country. So

1041
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 2: I like the spot for Purdue at home against the

1042
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 2: Illinois team that I don't think the market is down

1043
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 2: greaded enough.

1044
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,359
Speaker 1: You're gonna leave me on this podcast by backing Brett

1045
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:55,799
Speaker 1: Bielaman and Bobby Patrino. What's next Donelle Smith coming out

1046
00:52:55,800 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 1: of retirement. Yeah, I will try all you for this one.

1047
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 1: I have I have Bret be them a pictures ready

1048
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:07,440
Speaker 1: to send out. Feel free to troll me if the

1049
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 1: results go the other wise.

1050
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 2: But there's there's a reason Illinois ozon four against the

1051
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 2: spread of my opinion that they just they haven't been

1052
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:16,879
Speaker 2: down graded up. They also have major discipline issues this team.

1053
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 2: Penalties are bad. That some bad vibes with this team.

1054
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 2: Moving on, Troy at Georgia State. I'll make a quick

1055
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 2: case for Troy. Georgia State's four and oh they played nobody.

1056
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 2: You talk about a strength of schedule descriptiony, I have

1057
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 2: them outside the top one hundred and fifty uh and

1058
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: then Troy two and two. Some misleading box scores like

1059
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 2: they they lost you know, a club they should have.

1060
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 2: They lost the Kansastate as they should have. They lost

1061
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 2: my two to James Madison. The only what beat Western

1062
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 2: Kentucky by three, but they gained them by like three

1063
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 2: hundred yards last week. And this is also you're going

1064
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:52,879
Speaker 2: down to Georgia State. There is no no home field

1065
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 2: advantage here and in the Sunbelt of the past twenty years,

1066
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 2: it's negative fourteen percent ROI. If you bet every home

1067
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 2: team in conference plans undel play. The home field advantage

1068
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 2: of the market is always way too high. But this

1069
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 2: is a great matchup too. Georgia State cannot cannot defend

1070
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:14,320
Speaker 2: the pass. They lost their two best, two best defensive

1071
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:17,400
Speaker 2: backs when they went up against Coasta Carolina's kind of

1072
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 2: threw for three hundred, Rhode Island threw for four hundred,

1073
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 2: and then they they faced two clowns that couldn't throw

1074
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 2: the ball well Troy short that's that's that's their bread

1075
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:30,399
Speaker 2: and butter pass the setup to run. Meanwhile, Georgia State

1076
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,640
Speaker 2: relies on the run and their run heavy team like

1077
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:35,239
Speaker 2: sixty to sixty two percent of the time. They're going

1078
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 2: to run the ball with Granger at quarterback and Carol

1079
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 2: running back. That's been the strength of de Troy defense.

1080
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 2: They've been great against the run, They've been gettable in

1081
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 2: the secondary, but that's not really the strength of this

1082
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:54,720
Speaker 2: Georgia State team. So yeah, I mean, look, they're Troy's

1083
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 2: top thirty nationally and stuff rate, rush success rate. I

1084
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 2: think that's big here and I think Troy could take

1085
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 2: advantage of this Georgia State secretary Georgia States fraudule on

1086
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 2: four and out here. So I mean, they've they have

1087
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 2: played Charlotte, Rhode Island, Yukon, and Coastal Carolina, who looks

1088
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 2: awful and by the way, look at Liberty looks with

1089
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 2: Jamie Chadwell talk about a downgrade in the coaching department.

1090
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 2: SEEA I like Troyer.

1091
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm joining you. I actually just shoved some money

1092
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 1: across on Troy and then the steam has just been

1093
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 1: hitting it all week. And I took a deep dive

1094
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:36,800
Speaker 1: into the numbers and Georgia State defensive numbers against the

1095
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 1: pass are terrible one hundred and twenty fourth and coverage

1096
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 1: grading that's going to be taken and taken complete advantage

1097
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 1: of mechanics. They can't stop explosive passing. But I went

1098
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 1: over to Troy because I know that there's been some

1099
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 1: issues with Gunner, Watson and Troy, so I really kind

1100
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,720
Speaker 1: of broke it down. He's had eleven turnover worthy plays

1101
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,240
Speaker 1: his career. I mean, he's got a career high turnover

1102
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 1: worthy play rate of seven percent right now. But ten

1103
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 1: of the eleven turnover worthy plays came against Kansas State

1104
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: and James Madison. I am forgiving you against the Georgia

1105
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 1: State secondary and call you a betable quarterback and a

1106
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:14,400
Speaker 1: betable offense against Georgia State secondary. I don't blame Kansas

1107
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 1: State JMU racking up ten turnover worthy plays against Gunner Watson.

1108
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 1: It happens against better defenses. So Georgia State, by the way,

1109
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball, Georgia State runs

1110
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,399
Speaker 1: the ball sixty one percent of the time, but they're

1111
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty second and rushing success rate, and

1112
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 1: Troy is fifth nationally. And defensive stuff, right, I love

1113
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 1: me some stuff. Right, Troy's going to dominate the line

1114
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,960
Speaker 1: of scrimmage on the defensive side, and Gunnar Watson's going

1115
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:39,879
Speaker 1: to have his day against that secondary of Georgia State.

1116
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 1: So give me Troy all the way.

1117
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:43,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good spot and then a great matchup

1118
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball. All right. Washington Arizona

1119
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 2: Washington did this line's been all over the place now

1120
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: like an eighteen to aint nineteen point favor because there's

1121
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 2: questions a quarterback for Arizona. Look, James Delara has a

1122
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 2: very talented quarterback, but he's he's so many turnover worthy

1123
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 2: throws and he's got time. Arizona offensive line has been good.

1124
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 2: This Washington defense still hasn't been tested. And Arizona's really

1125
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,360
Speaker 2: great receivers. But if you look at Washington who they

1126
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 2: played so far, and this is just the only question

1127
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 2: that their offense is amazing. It's the best in the

1128
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 2: country in my opinion, and they're putting up silly numbers.

1129
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 2: Penis is the rightful Heisman winner. But they've played Cal, Boise, Tulsa,

1130
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: Michigan State. None of those teams can throw. And that

1131
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 2: was the issue with Washington last year. Their secondary You

1132
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 2: could throw on them and you could just throw it

1133
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 2: all the way down the field. And none of those

1134
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 2: teams that they've played so far can throw the ball.

1135
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 2: Cal had some success throwing it with Ben Finley, but

1136
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 2: none of those teams have the the wide receivers that

1137
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 2: Arizona does. Arizona said coach. He seemed really confident Fafita.

1138
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 2: He's looked pretty good when I've watched him. Delora has

1139
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 2: made too many mistakes. I think if Delori gets ruled out,

1140
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 2: this line will go up and and I'm gonna take Arizona.

1141
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 2: But Cal was catching what twenty one at Washington. Yeah,

1142
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 2: I think he got down to twenty and a half.

1143
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 2: I'm taking Arizona this gets to twenty definitely. If he

1144
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 2: gets to twenty one twenty when Delora's ruled out, what

1145
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 2: say you?

1146
00:58:20,320 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: Noah Fafida in the backup twenty seven career passing attempts,

1147
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: and that's just not enough for me to know what

1148
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 1: the drop off in a market point spread is from

1149
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 1: DeLaura down to Fafida. And I just haven't seen enough

1150
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 1: running which Laura can provide too. He left in the

1151
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:38,440
Speaker 1: third quarter versus Stanford with a high ankle sprain. He

1152
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 1: was seen in a boot Monday or Tuesday. I usually

1153
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 1: high ankle sprains, you're not playing the next week, so I.

1154
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:46,439
Speaker 2: Think I assume he's gonna be out. Yeah, it won't

1155
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 2: be announced until Saturday night.

1156
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:51,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if Jade Laura does play, he's not

1157
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 1: gonna move, He's not going to run. We've got some

1158
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 1: same bon Nick's injury from last year, right, he was

1159
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 1: booted up all week and then he never left the pocket.

1160
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 1: You know, Washington doesn't create a lot of havocs, So

1161
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:03,360
Speaker 1: that would be a plus for DeLaura if he does play,

1162
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 1: and it's a plus for a FEFETA if he doesn't

1163
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 1: have a pressure pocket. And Washington hasn't controlled the line

1164
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 1: of scrimmage on defense this far. Thus far in the season,

1165
00:59:11,840 --> 00:59:13,800
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteenth in the defensive havoc one hundred

1166
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 1: and eighteenth in lineyards. Listen, Washington can be ran on

1167
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,240
Speaker 1: and I think the I think I've said this in

1168
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 1: previous podcasts. The best way to be Washington is take

1169
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 1: their damn offense off the field. And you know, I'm

1170
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,400
Speaker 1: not saying that Arizona's going to be able to replicate.

1171
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: Right now, they are third of the nation and offensive

1172
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: rushing success rate and they're eighth in lineyards. And can

1173
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 1: Arizona run the ball and keep washing off the field,

1174
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:41,440
Speaker 1: I'm not that's the path, that's the formula.

1175
00:59:44,080 --> 00:59:46,120
Speaker 2: Michael Wiley got hurt too last week.

1176
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's a path for Arizona to cover.

1177
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,280
Speaker 1: But DeLaura must play and the number needs to be

1178
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 1: north of nineteen and a half. That's it for me.

1179
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 1: And you know, I just I can't bet on this note.

1180
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,280
Speaker 1: Fafeeda kid going This Washington team is such a machine

1181
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 1: on offense and Arizona's one hundred and sixteenth covered. Let's

1182
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:04,880
Speaker 1: get past the Arizona offense. Arizona defense is one hundred

1183
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:06,920
Speaker 1: and sixteenth and coverage. I don't want to walk into

1184
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 1: a firing squad. That's what col was. That game was

1185
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 1: just I mean that that is just one series and

1186
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 1: you knew your bet was toast if you bet Cal.

1187
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:16,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, well they threw a pick six and then up

1188
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:18,360
Speaker 2: they had a pumper timber a touchdown. But they it's

1189
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:20,480
Speaker 2: fourteen points of zero yards. That's kind of hard to

1190
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:24,919
Speaker 2: cover when that happens. But and Cal had a shot

1191
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 2: at the back door and just quit, just said they

1192
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 2: were going down the field and then just said fuck it. Meanwhile,

1193
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 2: I have Ole Miss running fifty yard dives up twenty

1194
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:41,240
Speaker 2: to cover and they just said, you know what, we're

1195
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 2: going downfield. Now, let's just who cares. All right, it's

1196
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 2: time for.

1197
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 1: Trash the trash man pick of the week. I'm the

1198
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:52,960
Speaker 1: trash man.

1199
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

1200
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependable it.

1201
01:00:59,120 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 1: That's it.

1202
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 2: You've been told. How do you like that? Go ahead?

1203
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: All right? I got three trashy trash picks and they

1204
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:09,680
Speaker 2: are bad. We're gonna start with you.

1205
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 1: Mass.

1206
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 2: We're back, baby Zoo Mass, the Maroon Army whatever they

1207
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 2: called themselves. I don't want no man and man.

1208
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:23,919
Speaker 1: I don't want no man and man.

1209
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:30,080
Speaker 2: We're back, taking u Mass one point favorite. I think

1210
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:33,040
Speaker 2: this actually took money of us. We're recording anything under

1211
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:36,040
Speaker 2: three is fine. I'm fading. The Arkansas State team stinks.

1212
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 2: We'll see if their coach cries again. You know, they

1213
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 2: just beat Southern Miss. They upset Southern Mess, slizz a

1214
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 2: sleepy non conference spot before they play at Troy. They

1215
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 2: go off to UMass. There's a good chance they don't

1216
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 2: never get off the bus. This is the same Red

1217
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 2: ULLs team that lost one hundred and ten to three

1218
01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 2: on the road to Memphis and Oklahoma to start the year.

1219
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 2: And you Mass, they actually now know what quarterback to

1220
01:01:57,280 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 2: prepare for because Jalen Raider is a true freshman. His

1221
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 2: first career start eat Southern Mess, but now they have

1222
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 2: tape on him. This is his first road start. And

1223
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 2: Umasses improved people. They are one and four, but they've

1224
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:11,840
Speaker 2: just been unlucky. They lost to Eastern Michigan by two

1225
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:15,720
Speaker 2: on a final minute bomb touchdown. They out gained the

1226
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan four sixty four to three seventy one even

1227
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 2: with that bomb touchdown. Then last week against New Mexico,

1228
01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 2: they lose in overtime, but they out gained New Mexico

1229
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 2: four ninety five to three point thirty eight. They just

1230
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 2: failed on a bunch of four down with them. Meanwhile,

1231
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:34,200
Speaker 2: this is a team that's been dealing with a like

1232
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 2: they have a different quarterback every quarter, a bunch of

1233
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 2: quarterback injuries. I've heard that uh Tyson Kumachan, who I

1234
01:02:42,280 --> 01:02:44,640
Speaker 2: think is on the best chance, has a really good

1235
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 2: chance of returning this week, if not. The backups like

1236
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: Carlos Davis, the other kid who came in. Actually Loo's

1237
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 2: really good as well. They're all kind of competent, and

1238
01:02:51,840 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 2: the offense hasn't had issues. They've moving the ball up

1239
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 2: and down the field. They have like Power five talent

1240
01:02:56,080 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 2: now thanks to the transport wide receiver. And also last

1241
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:04,280
Speaker 2: week they played without Jordan Mahoney, who's a future pro corner.

1242
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 2: He's their best player and he's the most important player

1243
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 2: because Don Brown blitzes and leaves their corners on an island.

1244
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 2: So he didn't play last week. He's back this week.

1245
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:14,959
Speaker 2: They said he was like almost he was so close

1246
01:03:15,000 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 2: to playing but didn't, So he's back. He's the most

1247
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:21,440
Speaker 2: important player on defense. That allows Don Brown to dial

1248
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 2: up a lot more blitzes. Confused this true freshman. So

1249
01:03:24,520 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 2: a couple of fluky losses and key injuries for U mess.

1250
01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 2: I think of are creating some value here. This team

1251
01:03:31,440 --> 01:03:33,600
Speaker 2: is improved, like they're putting up like five hundred yards

1252
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:36,320
Speaker 2: on offense and like just getting unlucky in these games,

1253
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 2: whereas last year they would have lost all these games

1254
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 2: by like twenty or thirty. Give me U mats for

1255
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 2: what it's worth, underdog of a touchdown or after winning

1256
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:46,600
Speaker 2: as an underdog of a touchdown or more of the

1257
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 2: previous week, as Southern mist did. When you go on

1258
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 2: the road to face a non conference opponent over the

1259
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 2: past twenty years in this spot, just twenty six and

1260
01:03:56,840 --> 01:04:01,320
Speaker 2: forty against the spread, thirty nine percent you mass baby

1261
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 2: agree or disagree.

1262
01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 1: Completely agree this is I'll throw out one stat areas

1263
01:04:07,080 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 1: we don't need to spend a lot of time on

1264
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 1: Arkansas State. So I have this a whole bunch of

1265
01:04:11,520 --> 01:04:14,240
Speaker 1: stat categories that I don't usually bring up very much.

1266
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 1: I do use them when I handicap. One of them

1267
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 1: is catchable ball. A catchable ball is did you did

1268
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 1: the offense throw a pass that was in a box

1269
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 1: around the numbers and did the wide receiver have to

1270
01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:29,480
Speaker 1: work to get it? Now? My stats include FCS teams

1271
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 1: that have played FBS teams and that makes a total

1272
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: of one hundred and eighty five in this ranking. What

1273
01:04:34,160 --> 01:04:39,959
Speaker 1: is Arkansas State defensively and catchable balls? Dead freaking last

1274
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty fifth in the nation, which means

1275
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 1: every team that passes against Arkansas State threads a perfect needle.

1276
01:04:47,880 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 1: Arkansas State is atrocious, beyond stats, beyond FCS teams in

1277
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:56,600
Speaker 1: pass defense completely with you.

1278
01:04:56,640 --> 01:05:05,680
Speaker 2: Here, love it consensus. The next one Southern miss at home. Uh,

1279
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:10,280
Speaker 2: this is this signs down to plus five and a half. Yeah,

1280
01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 2: this is I think this is this. The market has

1281
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 2: gone too far in Texas State. Look, Texas State significantly

1282
01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:20,440
Speaker 2: improved under GJ. Kitty, trying to replicate like the Western

1283
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 2: Kentucky model under Bailey.

1284
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:24,280
Speaker 1: Zappy Bailey Zappi.

1285
01:05:25,520 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 2: You can finally get a Bailey Zappi clip in the

1286
01:05:27,160 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 2: podcast Brand New Offense. It has been good. But look,

1287
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:32,440
Speaker 2: they beat Baylor the opener, but that was like what

1288
01:05:32,520 --> 01:05:34,480
Speaker 2: Colorado did the TCU. Baylor had no idea what to

1289
01:05:34,560 --> 01:05:36,600
Speaker 2: pay for and by the way, that lost. That win

1290
01:05:36,680 --> 01:05:40,920
Speaker 2: doesn't look as good now Baylor stinks out loud. And

1291
01:05:40,960 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 2: then since then, what is what have they done?

1292
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 1: Uh?

1293
01:05:46,080 --> 01:05:50,040
Speaker 2: They lost seventeen thirteen to UTSA. They couldn't move the ball,

1294
01:05:50,040 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 2: and UTSA has given up what thirty seven to Army

1295
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 2: the following week and then forty five to Tennessee. Other

1296
01:05:56,240 --> 01:06:02,920
Speaker 2: than that, you know, besides surprising Baylor, who they beat Nevada.

1297
01:06:02,960 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 2: They were done seventeen nothing at the half at home

1298
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:07,160
Speaker 2: to Nevada. How the fuck does that happen? Uh?

1299
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 1: Oh, they went crazy in the second half.

1300
01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, they went crazy the second half. But like it's

1301
01:06:10,520 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 2: also Nevada. It was the worst secondary in the entire country.

1302
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 2: And then I think they beat up on Jackson State,

1303
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 2: who was a doormat. So I think we're just there's two.

1304
01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:26,320
Speaker 2: The market is just corrected. Both of these teams too much.

1305
01:06:26,400 --> 01:06:30,080
Speaker 2: Look Southern misses look trendous, really bad. The defense has

1306
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:32,640
Speaker 2: taking a huge step back. They really miss Austin Armstrong

1307
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 2: who's now in Florida, and last year their three best

1308
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:41,000
Speaker 2: pass rushers. They just can't replace them like this. This

1309
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 2: defense was all about getting pressure and they're just not

1310
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:48,960
Speaker 2: able to get pressure now Keil and Latham in company there.

1311
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:54,000
Speaker 2: They can't find new pass rushers. Hopefully this defense shows up.

1312
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,480
Speaker 2: This is like a good rebound spot. I just Texas State.

1313
01:06:59,040 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 2: This is way way much of an over correction compared

1314
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:03,120
Speaker 2: to my priors. I think this game should be closer

1315
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:05,520
Speaker 2: to like a pick. Maybe I'm too high on Southern

1316
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:10,240
Speaker 2: Miss Frank or at least got going last week, but

1317
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:11,919
Speaker 2: I think this is a good spot for what it's worth.

1318
01:07:11,960 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 2: Home dogs following a straight up loss as a touchdown

1319
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 2: plus favorite sixty two percent against the spread over the

1320
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:21,720
Speaker 2: past twenty seasons only saw the misfit Sech criteria this weekend.

1321
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 2: Just a bi lo speaking to market over overreaction. Does

1322
01:07:25,480 --> 01:07:29,920
Speaker 2: Texas State team that's that's so a role. I'm back

1323
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:31,919
Speaker 2: in Golden Eagles here. Let's go nasty boys.

1324
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: Agreed, ye, ladies, I mean I've got to agree with you,

1325
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 1: and I actually I'm gonna shed some money here and

1326
01:07:42,080 --> 01:07:44,760
Speaker 1: bet it with you because this when this opened up

1327
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:48,400
Speaker 1: on Sunday, I thought my numbers were broken. This is

1328
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 1: a game. This is a game.

1329
01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 2: I bet some plus seven. Earlier in the week I.

1330
01:07:53,280 --> 01:07:56,919
Speaker 1: Power reade this game. Texas State minus one sp plus

1331
01:07:57,080 --> 01:08:00,280
Speaker 1: is it three around a pick? Yeah? People, this is

1332
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 1: at three and Sagurin's at three and a half. And

1333
01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: so when that number opened up at seven, I saw it.

1334
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 1: Take money. I'm like Okay, Texas State one hundred and

1335
01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 1: seventeenth and strength of schedule, so they're missed thirty fourth.

1336
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 1: Huge discrepancy here, So I throw away Southern missus numbers.

1337
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:16,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet it with you because this is the

1338
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:19,759
Speaker 1: week where I think soft strength of schedule gets corrected.

1339
01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:23,240
Speaker 2: I got one more Northwestern Northwestern plus twenty seven against.

1340
01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:24,519
Speaker 1: I think I gotta take a walk on this one.

1341
01:08:24,720 --> 01:08:26,000
Speaker 1: And I will just go ahead and say I am

1342
01:08:26,080 --> 01:08:26,479
Speaker 1: not with you.

1343
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:29,680
Speaker 2: Go ahead, plead your Northwestern look. I think they can

1344
01:08:29,720 --> 01:08:32,280
Speaker 2: carry some offensive momentum from last week when they put

1345
01:08:32,360 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 2: up thirty seven. Ben Bryant went bananas in the second.

1346
01:08:35,360 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 2: This is a sleepy spot for Penn State noonkick. James

1347
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:40,360
Speaker 2: Franco came out and said that they're not practicing with

1348
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:45,959
Speaker 2: music to mirror the environment in Evanston, which is hilarious.

1349
01:08:46,000 --> 01:08:49,200
Speaker 2: He's such a dick, but that was funny. But this

1350
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:51,439
Speaker 2: is a sleepy spot Penn State off the Iowa win.

1351
01:08:52,240 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 2: They now they have they go to Northwestern for noonkick,

1352
01:08:56,560 --> 01:08:59,840
Speaker 2: then they have a bye, then they have U Mass

1353
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:03,519
Speaker 2: and then it's Ohio State. It's like this is just like,

1354
01:09:03,720 --> 01:09:07,200
Speaker 2: let's go through the motions Penn State's offense still like it.

1355
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:11,200
Speaker 2: There's no explosiveness. They're still trying to figure out the

1356
01:09:11,320 --> 01:09:15,639
Speaker 2: rushing attack. So this is a game where, by the way,

1357
01:09:15,680 --> 01:09:19,560
Speaker 2: the total is super low. I just mean Northwestern to

1358
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:21,680
Speaker 2: get the ten. There's also a good chance this game

1359
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:26,479
Speaker 2: ends twenty four to nothing and I cover, So I

1360
01:09:26,640 --> 01:09:28,880
Speaker 2: just take. There's numbers two. I sleepy spot for Penn State,

1361
01:09:29,520 --> 01:09:32,439
Speaker 2: and the offenses hasn't been that explosive. They're just like

1362
01:09:32,680 --> 01:09:35,720
Speaker 2: they're just relying on their day methodically, just marching down

1363
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:38,120
Speaker 2: the field. The clock's be moving throughout this game too

1364
01:09:38,200 --> 01:09:43,400
Speaker 2: high Northwestern shout out, revel all right, that's the trash

1365
01:09:43,720 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 2: UMass Northwestern and Southern miss before we go three and out.

1366
01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:54,880
Speaker 1: How many does Western have, by the way, how many wins?

1367
01:09:55,160 --> 01:09:58,439
Speaker 1: How many wins? If too what do they close on

1368
01:09:58,479 --> 01:10:01,800
Speaker 1: their season win total? I don't know what two and

1369
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:03,639
Speaker 1: a half we said on the Big ten preview pod

1370
01:10:03,680 --> 01:10:05,160
Speaker 1: we were gonna I was gonna take it over. I

1371
01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:06,679
Speaker 1: did take an over at two and a half.

1372
01:10:06,600 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 2: Three, so I did not take it. Well. They they

1373
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:10,920
Speaker 2: better not get their third one this week for defense

1374
01:10:11,560 --> 01:10:14,840
Speaker 2: cow I might not be aday that happens. Yeah, I

1375
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:16,479
Speaker 2: said there's gonna be CAO, so hopefully it's not that

1376
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:18,960
Speaker 2: all right before we go three and out calling on

1377
01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:21,960
Speaker 2: San Diego State overs san Diego State ten and a

1378
01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:27,519
Speaker 2: half point underdog at air Force. Normally San Diego State

1379
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:30,920
Speaker 2: shuts down this attack, yep, and I would have looked

1380
01:10:31,080 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 2: to catch ten and a half. I can't beat Santa

1381
01:10:33,040 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 2: State here. I they're dead last in defensive rush success rate.

1382
01:10:40,280 --> 01:10:43,400
Speaker 2: They're not stuffing anything. All of the reasons we didn't

1383
01:10:43,439 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 2: like San Jose State go to the it's like a formula,

1384
01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:53,800
Speaker 2: go to the triple option. Defensive metrics. They're petrifying for

1385
01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:56,439
Speaker 2: San Diego State. Can't back them here. But do you

1386
01:10:56,479 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 2: have any thoughts on the side of total.

1387
01:10:57,960 --> 01:10:59,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm taking the over in this game, and I

1388
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:00,879
Speaker 1: should you listen to woul.

1389
01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:02,320
Speaker 2: Leave the over. I would outlean the over as well.

1390
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:03,519
Speaker 2: I got forty three.

1391
01:11:03,880 --> 01:11:05,639
Speaker 1: I know there's some forty if I would stop buying,

1392
01:11:05,720 --> 01:11:11,439
Speaker 1: I think it forty five. As techovers listen, air Force

1393
01:11:11,479 --> 01:11:13,840
Speaker 1: should have zero resistance on offense. San Diego State is

1394
01:11:13,920 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 1: dead last in defensive rushing success right there. One hundred

1395
01:11:16,600 --> 01:11:18,599
Speaker 1: and twenty second stuff right, I don't know what happened

1396
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:20,840
Speaker 1: to the trench. Brady Hope told me at Mountain West

1397
01:11:20,880 --> 01:11:23,080
Speaker 1: that it's bad on both sides of the ball. He

1398
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:25,720
Speaker 1: was not kidding, he knew it back then. The only

1399
01:11:25,800 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 1: thing stopping the air Force air Force offense in this

1400
01:11:28,320 --> 01:11:31,719
Speaker 1: game is the clock. That's it. Can Jalen Maiden scramble

1401
01:11:31,800 --> 01:11:34,360
Speaker 1: and score. He scrambled for one hundred and sixty seven yards.

1402
01:11:34,640 --> 01:11:37,280
Speaker 1: He's had one hundred and seventy one designed yards, so

1403
01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:39,320
Speaker 1: I mean it doesn't matter if it's scrambl or designed.

1404
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,800
Speaker 1: He's getting them. Just hasn't been any explosiveness from the

1405
01:11:42,920 --> 01:11:46,600
Speaker 1: running backs whatsoever. Jalen Armstead kenon Christian that they have

1406
01:11:46,880 --> 01:11:49,040
Speaker 1: not been good behind. I think they're below three yards

1407
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:52,120
Speaker 1: after contact. If there is a positive for San Diego State,

1408
01:11:52,200 --> 01:11:54,719
Speaker 1: it's an air Force has not been good against the rush.

1409
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 1: They're mid FBS and all relevant ranks. And here we go.

1410
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:01,639
Speaker 1: Strength of schedule for Air Force one hundred and twenty ninth.

1411
01:12:01,760 --> 01:12:04,000
Speaker 1: I think I think Santy of the State is gonna

1412
01:12:04,000 --> 01:12:05,960
Speaker 1: be able to have a couple scrambles and scores, and

1413
01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:07,760
Speaker 1: I don't think anything is stopping air Force from getting

1414
01:12:07,760 --> 01:12:10,120
Speaker 1: down the field. So clock will be in play. But

1415
01:12:10,160 --> 01:12:10,720
Speaker 1: I like the over.

1416
01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:13,640
Speaker 2: Colin loves to say, stay over a shocker. All right,

1417
01:12:13,640 --> 01:12:15,880
Speaker 2: before we got here, we have to go three and out.

1418
01:12:17,640 --> 01:12:19,679
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1419
01:12:20,640 --> 01:12:23,280
Speaker 2: All right, let's start on first down with Friday night lights.

1420
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:27,680
Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts. Hey, let's go

1421
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:28,559
Speaker 1: play some football.

1422
01:12:29,360 --> 01:12:32,519
Speaker 2: First. Let's insert a clip because Minor Nation guy did

1423
01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:36,960
Speaker 2: call in last week or in turn missed it, but

1424
01:12:37,400 --> 01:12:39,479
Speaker 2: I heard it. You'll hear it now in the podcast column.

1425
01:12:39,520 --> 01:12:40,200
Speaker 2: It's depressing.

1426
01:12:42,520 --> 01:12:47,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, guys, this is Minor Mother FM Nation and we're

1427
01:12:47,439 --> 01:12:51,439
Speaker 4: walking out of the sunballing man. I hate to make

1428
01:12:51,520 --> 01:12:55,439
Speaker 4: this call, but fired Demo. Man, this is I mean,

1429
01:12:55,760 --> 01:12:59,320
Speaker 4: rock bottom for our program. We've had rough times, but

1430
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:02,920
Speaker 4: Demo is not the guy. Yeah, we gotta get them

1431
01:13:03,120 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 4: out of there.

1432
01:13:04,080 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1433
01:13:04,479 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 4: We've covered one game this year against incarnat word and

1434
01:13:08,560 --> 01:13:12,800
Speaker 4: like we've looked like shit every game northwest of embarrassed.

1435
01:13:13,360 --> 01:13:18,280
Speaker 4: It's over fired Demo. Fuck this season so far, But

1436
01:13:18,840 --> 01:13:20,519
Speaker 4: Minor Nation we'll be back.

1437
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:24,479
Speaker 2: Boom, proud of you for calling in. Taking your medicine.

1438
01:13:25,040 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 2: We might play Utah, Minor Nation, we might. I gotta

1439
01:13:28,040 --> 01:13:29,000
Speaker 2: see the injury report.

1440
01:13:29,960 --> 01:13:34,559
Speaker 1: We're talking Minor Nation out in the West Tixas town

1441
01:13:34,680 --> 01:13:37,760
Speaker 1: of Pestle picks.

1442
01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:42,160
Speaker 2: Up Hartisan's banged up. Yeah, they're they're leading. Utub's leading

1443
01:13:42,200 --> 01:13:45,320
Speaker 2: receiver didn't play last week, Tyron Smith, he's there exposed

1444
01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:48,360
Speaker 2: to play. Hankins are running back is banged up, So

1445
01:13:48,600 --> 01:13:51,120
Speaker 2: keep an eye on that. On the app, uh I liked.

1446
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 2: I kind of like since he against BYU, since he's

1447
01:13:53,080 --> 01:13:55,360
Speaker 2: been unlucky the past week's people, you've got that looky

1448
01:13:55,439 --> 01:13:58,320
Speaker 2: win against Arkansas and by the way, b YU against

1449
01:13:58,360 --> 01:14:00,519
Speaker 2: Sam Houston State. Now that that looks really bad.

1450
01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 1: There's a line movement in that game, by the way

1451
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:03,840
Speaker 1: it's going.

1452
01:14:03,920 --> 01:14:05,120
Speaker 2: It went to two and a half and then it

1453
01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:07,240
Speaker 2: just got with the pick. Something's going on there.

1454
01:14:07,479 --> 01:14:09,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got feelers out there.

1455
01:14:09,200 --> 01:14:09,439
Speaker 2: I was.

1456
01:14:09,960 --> 01:14:11,680
Speaker 1: I mean, the only way you're moving four and a

1457
01:14:11,720 --> 01:14:14,200
Speaker 1: half points across zero to make since he a favorite

1458
01:14:14,240 --> 01:14:16,439
Speaker 1: in provo is Kadan Slovas has to be hurt.

1459
01:14:16,360 --> 01:14:18,120
Speaker 2: And but isn't it back to a pick now?

1460
01:14:19,160 --> 01:14:22,240
Speaker 1: No, it's still since the minus one one and a half.

1461
01:14:22,320 --> 01:14:24,160
Speaker 1: There's even a book posting two and a half. I

1462
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:27,120
Speaker 1: just I don't lie in Cincinnati's a favorite. So I

1463
01:14:27,200 --> 01:14:29,120
Speaker 1: have no clue why there was I'm still on the search.

1464
01:14:29,200 --> 01:14:30,960
Speaker 1: Why was there a four and a half five point

1465
01:14:31,080 --> 01:14:34,759
Speaker 1: move on Wednesday night on this game? It's I'm still searching.

1466
01:14:35,000 --> 01:14:36,479
Speaker 1: If I find the reason, we'll see it in the app.

1467
01:14:38,040 --> 01:14:41,120
Speaker 2: Actually, I think it's evens that game Louisville n C State.

1468
01:14:42,040 --> 01:14:43,760
Speaker 2: I can't back this NC State team. There's just no

1469
01:14:43,880 --> 01:14:47,240
Speaker 2: explosiveness on the offense. It's it's ugly, even if it's

1470
01:14:47,280 --> 01:14:49,840
Speaker 2: a good home spot. No, no, thank you Louisville or nothing.

1471
01:14:49,880 --> 01:14:53,960
Speaker 2: But I'm passing Utah Oregon State Cam Rising as he

1472
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:56,280
Speaker 2: exists anymore, I don't know the line move says he's out,

1473
01:14:56,720 --> 01:14:59,639
Speaker 2: This line keeps going up if he I mean Utah

1474
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:02,400
Speaker 2: has been dominant against the run. That's what Oregon State

1475
01:15:02,439 --> 01:15:04,280
Speaker 2: wants to do. This is like smash Mouth on SAT.

1476
01:15:04,439 --> 01:15:09,800
Speaker 2: Smash mouth. The Utah offense without Rising is horrendous. They

1477
01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:12,360
Speaker 2: can't take advantage of the Oregon State secondary. If Rising

1478
01:15:12,400 --> 01:15:16,600
Speaker 2: doesn't play, this is dead nuts under but completely I

1479
01:15:16,680 --> 01:15:19,680
Speaker 2: think Oregon State wins. If no Rising, I'll probably have

1480
01:15:19,760 --> 01:15:23,479
Speaker 2: them in my round robin. But a lot of quarterback

1481
01:15:23,479 --> 01:15:25,120
Speaker 2: on certainty there. Do you have any quick other thoughts

1482
01:15:25,160 --> 01:15:26,200
Speaker 2: on any of the games Friday Night.

1483
01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:27,880
Speaker 1: O're gonna say it's up to four and a half.

1484
01:15:28,120 --> 01:15:28,439
Speaker 2: You can't.

1485
01:15:28,439 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 1: I can't buy that. I can't justify that, not what

1486
01:15:30,600 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 1: Utah's defense did to UCLA. Ucla is a legit team

1487
01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:35,400
Speaker 1: that can run the ball, and Utah just completely shut

1488
01:15:35,400 --> 01:15:36,680
Speaker 1: them down. I don't think there's anything to do with

1489
01:15:36,800 --> 01:15:39,800
Speaker 1: Rice Echols, but sixty chance of pre sip up at

1490
01:15:39,840 --> 01:15:43,240
Speaker 1: Rester Stadium, Oregon State. I understand the love for them

1491
01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:45,519
Speaker 1: because they're thirteen to one against the spread since twenty

1492
01:15:45,600 --> 01:15:49,000
Speaker 1: twenty one season at Reeser Stadium. They're amazing at home.

1493
01:15:49,160 --> 01:15:51,439
Speaker 1: I get it this number is getting a little bit large,

1494
01:15:51,920 --> 01:15:54,240
Speaker 1: but if cam Raising isn't playing, you're gonna have Nate

1495
01:15:54,360 --> 01:15:57,000
Speaker 1: Johnson cover that spread for you. I do see some

1496
01:15:57,120 --> 01:15:59,680
Speaker 1: money starting. I took under early this week. Money is

1497
01:15:59,720 --> 01:16:01,320
Speaker 1: starting and to finally come in on the under, so

1498
01:16:01,479 --> 01:16:03,599
Speaker 1: I would go in and get your forty five, forty

1499
01:16:03,640 --> 01:16:06,200
Speaker 1: four and halves. They're not gonna be around. I think

1500
01:16:06,280 --> 01:16:07,000
Speaker 1: once kick comes.

1501
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:13,679
Speaker 2: By the way, Troy just got hit. So who's someone's

1502
01:16:13,760 --> 01:16:18,240
Speaker 2: listen tapping the podcast? All right, let's go on the

1503
01:16:18,280 --> 01:16:21,200
Speaker 2: second down. Our favorite overdog.

1504
01:16:21,640 --> 01:16:23,240
Speaker 4: It's called the overdog parlay.

1505
01:16:23,600 --> 01:16:26,280
Speaker 2: We've hit four in a row, two back to back sweeps.

1506
01:16:27,080 --> 01:16:30,920
Speaker 2: I'm going I'm I'm sorry, club Let, I'm faning Clublet.

1507
01:16:30,960 --> 01:16:33,120
Speaker 2: I'm going to SMU. I think it's a good bounce

1508
01:16:33,160 --> 01:16:37,679
Speaker 2: back spot. Look, they played Oklahoma tough, even statistically at Charlotte,

1509
01:16:37,920 --> 01:16:39,519
Speaker 2: second straight road game. You have to get and beat

1510
01:16:39,600 --> 01:16:42,120
Speaker 2: up at Florida. They have no secondary dead last in

1511
01:16:42,200 --> 01:16:46,120
Speaker 2: defensive back havoc to bottom ten passing success right, So

1512
01:16:46,240 --> 01:16:47,680
Speaker 2: this is the game. I think Preston Stone and that

1513
01:16:47,720 --> 01:16:50,280
Speaker 2: offense can get going, and they asking me you defense

1514
01:16:50,320 --> 01:16:52,799
Speaker 2: has been really good, and I just don't see Charlotte

1515
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:55,200
Speaker 2: being able to sustain you riser. They're dead last in

1516
01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:57,479
Speaker 2: the country and the third down conversion rate. This is

1517
01:16:57,520 --> 01:16:59,920
Speaker 2: a get right game for SMU. I think they want

1518
01:16:59,920 --> 01:17:02,719
Speaker 2: to put up a big number after that loss to TCU,

1519
01:17:02,920 --> 01:17:06,040
Speaker 2: just like they did after the loss to Oklahoma. They

1520
01:17:06,120 --> 01:17:09,639
Speaker 2: came home, played a doormat in Prairie View and won

1521
01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:14,200
Speaker 2: sixty nine. Nothing nice. So yeah, I think this sets

1522
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:15,800
Speaker 2: up for a blot win resting as long as they

1523
01:17:15,840 --> 01:17:16,960
Speaker 2: get off the bus and care where you go.

1524
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:20,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Texas. We talked about it earlier

1525
01:17:20,360 --> 01:17:23,040
Speaker 1: minus sixteen and a half minus sixteen, whatever's out there.

1526
01:17:23,840 --> 01:17:26,759
Speaker 1: We talked about how they don't have any overlook. They

1527
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:30,160
Speaker 1: completely take the game serious. Before the week before Red River,

1528
01:17:30,520 --> 01:17:32,960
Speaker 1: Sark is in the locker room showing tape of Texas

1529
01:17:33,080 --> 01:17:36,840
Speaker 1: losing to Kansas in years before. I'm taking Texas on

1530
01:17:36,920 --> 01:17:37,439
Speaker 1: the big number.

1531
01:17:37,960 --> 01:17:39,639
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it rolling with the other dolls.

1532
01:17:39,680 --> 01:17:44,719
Speaker 2: We're going deep in the heart of Texas in Austin

1533
01:17:45,640 --> 01:17:49,679
Speaker 2: with the long Lorns, and then in Dallas where Texas

1534
01:17:49,680 --> 01:17:54,599
Speaker 2: will be next week with the Mustangs. Pony up all right,

1535
01:17:54,640 --> 01:17:57,599
Speaker 2: and then our final testa show third down, our underdog

1536
01:17:57,680 --> 01:18:05,840
Speaker 2: moneyline parlay with our two money on underdogs, turning good

1537
01:18:05,920 --> 01:18:08,280
Speaker 2: weekends into great weekends.

1538
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:11,439
Speaker 4: It's time for the money line parlay.

1539
01:18:12,280 --> 01:18:14,000
Speaker 2: I'll kick it off. I'm going Ole Miss talked about

1540
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:16,320
Speaker 2: it earlier. Have make them a tiny favorite. I think

1541
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:18,160
Speaker 2: this game is just back and forth shoot out. Last

1542
01:18:18,160 --> 01:18:20,120
Speaker 2: team at the ball, so happy to take the plus money.

1543
01:18:20,240 --> 01:18:25,280
Speaker 2: Also playing the money online dog like to get some variants,

1544
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:28,479
Speaker 2: some high aerensteam hey that's Lane Kippin and fourth downs

1545
01:18:28,800 --> 01:18:31,679
Speaker 2: which could play a role here. Give me ole Miss

1546
01:18:31,720 --> 01:18:34,240
Speaker 2: healthier offense here going up against an LSU defense that

1547
01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:37,640
Speaker 2: is abysmal. They rank outside the top one hundred in

1548
01:18:37,880 --> 01:18:41,479
Speaker 2: almost every advanced metric. Ole Miss should be able to

1549
01:18:41,520 --> 01:18:43,720
Speaker 2: keep up with LSU here, I like, will miss the

1550
01:18:43,760 --> 01:18:46,200
Speaker 2: bounce back at home? Where you going?

1551
01:18:47,000 --> 01:18:49,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Florida your backyar are going up

1552
01:18:49,760 --> 01:18:53,400
Speaker 1: against Kentucky here. I am not a fan of what's

1553
01:18:53,439 --> 01:18:55,560
Speaker 1: going on with Kentucky right now. Devin Leary does not

1554
01:18:55,640 --> 01:18:58,160
Speaker 1: look good. He continue to struggle under center for Kentucky,

1555
01:18:58,800 --> 01:19:01,160
Speaker 1: navigating through one of the see the schedules in the nation,

1556
01:19:02,200 --> 01:19:05,840
Speaker 1: I mean Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Devin

1557
01:19:05,880 --> 01:19:08,360
Speaker 1: Larry has thrown an interception in every single one of

1558
01:19:08,400 --> 01:19:12,120
Speaker 1: those games. Questions are persisting around his torn pectoral that

1559
01:19:12,439 --> 01:19:15,240
Speaker 1: ended his season with NC State last year, and now

1560
01:19:15,280 --> 01:19:17,240
Speaker 1: he's up at Kentucky and struggling to throw the ball

1561
01:19:17,360 --> 01:19:19,599
Speaker 1: and the Florida resume. I mean, there's plenty of bullet

1562
01:19:19,640 --> 01:19:21,120
Speaker 1: points here. I mean, they've already been on the road

1563
01:19:21,160 --> 01:19:23,799
Speaker 1: at Salt Lake, they had a rivalry win over Tennessee.

1564
01:19:24,160 --> 01:19:26,400
Speaker 1: A large portion of their credit goes to defensive coordinator

1565
01:19:26,400 --> 01:19:29,000
Speaker 1: Austin Armstrong. We talked about Southern Miss and their struggles

1566
01:19:29,040 --> 01:19:32,200
Speaker 1: on defense. It's because Florida has their defensive coordinator. The

1567
01:19:32,280 --> 01:19:35,240
Speaker 1: Gators are top overall defense and rushing success. Right. They

1568
01:19:35,280 --> 01:19:39,160
Speaker 1: have complimentary top ten ranks and a bunch of categories

1569
01:19:39,200 --> 01:19:41,720
Speaker 1: that we need. And you know the only way that

1570
01:19:41,840 --> 01:19:44,800
Speaker 1: I the quality drives have been elusive for Florida and

1571
01:19:44,840 --> 01:19:47,799
Speaker 1: their opponents. And the only avenue for success against Florida's

1572
01:19:47,840 --> 01:19:50,080
Speaker 1: defense is through the air. And I just mentioned the

1573
01:19:50,120 --> 01:19:53,280
Speaker 1: Devin Larry is having some super problems throwing the ball.

1574
01:19:53,439 --> 01:19:56,640
Speaker 1: So I'm absolutely on Florida here. We're going to keep

1575
01:19:56,640 --> 01:19:58,120
Speaker 1: it running. I'm not going to name their coach off

1576
01:19:58,200 --> 01:20:00,599
Speaker 1: by name, but they are making this money and I'm

1577
01:20:00,600 --> 01:20:01,640
Speaker 1: going to continue to roll with them.

1578
01:20:02,800 --> 01:20:05,360
Speaker 2: I for that completely disagree here. I'll write I have

1579
01:20:05,560 --> 01:20:07,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have this game written out on Action Network

1580
01:20:07,960 --> 01:20:11,080
Speaker 2: dot com. Uh, this is still Graham Mertz by the way. Yeah,

1581
01:20:11,120 --> 01:20:14,280
Speaker 2: they played Utah, the Utah backup quarterbacks. We see what

1582
01:20:14,360 --> 01:20:16,120
Speaker 2: this Utah team has done since then. They can't score.

1583
01:20:16,160 --> 01:20:18,639
Speaker 2: They couldn't score against Baylor and then they played tennis.

1584
01:20:18,720 --> 01:20:20,759
Speaker 2: But you're giving them credit for the Tennessee. When Tennessee

1585
01:20:20,840 --> 01:20:23,759
Speaker 2: stinks all of a sudden, you're your Tennessee.

1586
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:27,560
Speaker 1: Look at who the Kentucky's played who's there.

1587
01:20:27,720 --> 01:20:30,240
Speaker 2: Their other wins came against Charlotte and McNeese State, and

1588
01:20:30,280 --> 01:20:32,080
Speaker 2: they couldn't even get the twenty. They couldn't even score

1589
01:20:32,120 --> 01:20:35,679
Speaker 2: two touchdowns against Charlotte last week. For what it's worth,

1590
01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:41,880
Speaker 2: the key to this game is explosiveness. Kentucky number one

1591
01:20:42,560 --> 01:20:44,880
Speaker 2: in the country and offensive explosiveness. You know, it's dead

1592
01:20:45,000 --> 01:20:51,400
Speaker 2: last in defensive explosiveness. Florida it's worse first first, that's

1593
01:20:51,479 --> 01:20:52,040
Speaker 2: the difference.

1594
01:20:52,640 --> 01:20:52,760
Speaker 1: Uh.

1595
01:20:53,240 --> 01:20:53,400
Speaker 4: You know.

1596
01:20:54,120 --> 01:20:56,960
Speaker 2: Stoops came out and said he has full faith that

1597
01:20:57,160 --> 01:21:00,360
Speaker 2: the lovely people Kentucky will be able to drink and

1598
01:21:00,400 --> 01:21:02,720
Speaker 2: get out for the early kick. I promise you I'll

1599
01:21:02,760 --> 01:21:05,760
Speaker 2: be part of that with a Kentucky ticket in hand.

1600
01:21:05,880 --> 01:21:07,599
Speaker 1: There's gonna be some early beers for me. If Graham

1601
01:21:07,680 --> 01:21:09,639
Speaker 1: Murtz screws me out of some more money in my wallet,

1602
01:21:10,760 --> 01:21:11,360
Speaker 1: yeah we will.

1603
01:21:11,840 --> 01:21:14,439
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a low scoring game, and

1604
01:21:14,479 --> 01:21:16,360
Speaker 2: I just think a couple explosive plays by could be

1605
01:21:16,400 --> 01:21:21,040
Speaker 2: the difference. But yeah, Leary, early on he really struggles

1606
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:23,280
Speaker 2: and then he starts to get going. Mechanical issue post

1607
01:21:23,360 --> 01:21:25,800
Speaker 2: injuries definitely a thing. We'll see if horse hequmes back

1608
01:21:25,840 --> 01:21:27,880
Speaker 2: for Kentucky to which could be big there guard We'll

1609
01:21:27,920 --> 01:21:30,640
Speaker 2: have the overdogs and underdogs written up on action work

1610
01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:33,000
Speaker 2: dot com the Action over Gap. That'll do it for us.

1611
01:21:33,479 --> 01:21:36,439
Speaker 2: Thanks as always for Colin, Thanks as always, say it again,

1612
01:21:37,160 --> 01:21:39,040
Speaker 2: Thanks as always to Colin for joining me, Thanks to

1613
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:41,640
Speaker 2: our producer Matt Mitchell on the back end, and of

1614
01:21:41,720 --> 01:21:44,880
Speaker 2: course thanks to all of you. I do have some giveaways,

1615
01:21:45,240 --> 01:21:47,200
Speaker 2: so make sure that you leave five star reviews. We'll

1616
01:21:47,240 --> 01:21:51,400
Speaker 2: do giveaways here, but we're gonna do Kurt Parr m

1617
01:21:51,520 --> 01:21:54,519
Speaker 2: Volk seven go bucks, oh three one five. I doubt

1618
01:21:54,560 --> 01:21:57,479
Speaker 2: he listens to our show anymore. T SIPs thirty one

1619
01:21:58,080 --> 01:22:01,680
Speaker 2: and O and D seventeen. Reach out to myself or

1620
01:22:01,720 --> 01:22:05,840
Speaker 2: our producer and we'll get you some gear. Appreciate all

1621
01:22:05,920 --> 01:22:08,160
Speaker 2: the support. Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe to

1622
01:22:08,160 --> 01:22:11,479
Speaker 2: our friends, tell on enemy, let's have a weekend. By

1623
01:22:11,560 --> 01:22:13,559
Speaker 2: the way, don't forget about the group of five guys.

1624
01:22:14,280 --> 01:22:17,320
Speaker 2: Also the new PCs New Fun format. That episode comes

1625
01:22:17,360 --> 01:22:19,280
Speaker 2: out on Tuesdays and it's also live ten thirty am

1626
01:22:19,320 --> 01:22:21,320
Speaker 2: Eastern on YouTube. And of course we'll be back for

1627
01:22:21,800 --> 01:22:27,439
Speaker 2: BBOC Live ten thirty am Eastern on Saturday. Good luck

1628
01:22:27,479 --> 01:22:31,080
Speaker 2: on all of your wagers and we'll see you on Saturday.

1629
01:22:31,240 --> 01:22:48,800
Speaker 1: Cheers, he's out. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1630
01:22:49,240 --> 01:22:52,000
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1631
01:22:52,360 --> 01:22:54,960
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1632
01:22:55,080 --> 01:22:55,799
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