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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. We're growing angular. I'm saying

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Speaker 2: it's a catch to stop.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. God, that's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks,

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabai you want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Hello everyone, Welcome to the Week three XFL Fantasy Flex,

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Speaker 4: the x Flex on the Action Network podcast. I'm Matthew Freeman,

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Speaker 4: the editor in chief of Fantasy Lapse, part of the

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Speaker 4: Action Network. In this episode, we're running through our Week

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Speaker 4: three XFL games. We're gonna take a quick look at

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Speaker 4: the futures market. We're gonna give our favorite bets with

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Speaker 4: me as always, or Shawn Corner and Chris Raymond. Shawn

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Speaker 4: is our director of predictive Analytics and one of the

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Speaker 4: top in season fantasy football rankers for the past half decade,

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Speaker 4: and Chris is a senior editor and analyst at the

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Speaker 4: Action Network and a co host the Action Network show

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Speaker 4: on Serious XM Fantasy Sports Radio. Guys, before we dive

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Speaker 4: into week three, let's do a quick look back at

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Speaker 4: Week two some of the lessons that we might have learned,

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Speaker 4: because it is still very early on in the season,

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Speaker 4: We've had only eight games of XFL action. Sean, any

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Speaker 4: big takeaways from week two that you think we can

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Speaker 4: spin forward into week three.

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Speaker 3: I mean for me personally, you know, aside from getting

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Speaker 3: a sense as to you know, the strength of the

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Speaker 3: teams and what the average total should be. I think

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Speaker 3: for me personally, a lesson I had was the bet

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Speaker 3: end game. I think a lot of these teams, I

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Speaker 3: think once the game starts and you see the flow

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Speaker 3: of it, I had a better sense of where the

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Speaker 3: value was.

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Speaker 2: So I was I was.

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Speaker 3: Doing a lot better betting endgame. An example is like

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Speaker 3: the La Dallas game. You know, both teams are driving

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Speaker 3: the ball and then they would get you know, just

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Speaker 3: turnovers inside the red zone. So I think like that game,

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Speaker 3: it was like three nothing when I bet the over,

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Speaker 3: I just felt like it was due for some points

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Speaker 3: and then just explode in the fourth quarter. You know,

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Speaker 3: I wasn't expecting that many points, but just in the game,

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Speaker 3: I felt more confident about sides. So this week, you know,

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Speaker 3: I don't really see as much value this week. Pregame

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Speaker 3: but I think endgame. I think that's where the dale's

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Speaker 3: going to lie in these in these markets.

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Speaker 1: Ramon, what do you think, First of all, home field

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Speaker 1: advantage I think is a little more than we thought.

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Speaker 1: I think you pointed it out in your piece I

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Speaker 1: Want Action Network dot Com Freeman. But home teams are

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Speaker 1: outscoring road teams twenty three to fourteen. I believe it is.

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Speaker 1: And personally, we started out with a home field advantage

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Speaker 1: around one point five, and I think we've all kind

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Speaker 1: of bumped it up a little bit into the two

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Speaker 1: point range. I think Seattle one of those teams, probably

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Speaker 1: even a little more so home field is big and

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Speaker 1: continue to be impressed even though they ended up losing

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Speaker 1: the game with Saint Louis the BattleHawks. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a team that is going to be competing for the

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Speaker 1: title this year. And most of most books still have

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Speaker 1: them in the bottom half of teams in terms of

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Speaker 1: the futures market. So those are a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: And we talked about this last week too, But the

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Speaker 1: average score through these eight games that we've seen is

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Speaker 1: just thirty seven point eight combined points, and that is

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Speaker 1: about eight points eight and a half points eight to

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Speaker 1: nine points lower than the NFL. Now, I expect that

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Speaker 1: to tick up a little bit as teams and offenses

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Speaker 1: get more familiar. I think there was some sloppy play

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Speaker 1: and particularly from Tampa Bay, and we've seen a bunch

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Speaker 1: of starting quarterbacks miss games in these first couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: But totals, I think there's going to be value on

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Speaker 1: unders because the general public likes to bet overs. The

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Speaker 1: XFL is a new league. It's going to attract a

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Speaker 1: lot of casual action. They talk about the totals and

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Speaker 1: the live numbers, you know that Sean was kind of

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Speaker 1: talking about. They talk about those in game as well.

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Speaker 1: So I think you are going to see a lot

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Speaker 1: of value on unders pregame. And then, as Sean kind

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Speaker 1: of mentioned, if a game kind of starts out flow,

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Speaker 1: that's where I think the value on the overs will

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Speaker 1: be because teams have been kind of mistake prone and

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Speaker 1: you can get load to sleep and these live lines

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Speaker 1: start dipping way down and then that's when you bet

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Speaker 1: the over. But I think pregame, I'm going to be

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Speaker 1: hammering the unders.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Rayvon, As you mentioned the totals, they still seem

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Speaker 4: to be very much inflated. You mentioned Saint Louis as

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Speaker 4: a team to keep an eye on. We will definitely

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Speaker 4: talk about them later, especially when we get to the

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Speaker 4: futures market. You mentioned home teams have dominated. I'm curious

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Speaker 4: to see what we're going to see this week because

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Speaker 4: this is the first week where we have some of

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Speaker 4: the better teams on the road. We have Tampa Bay

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Speaker 4: at home, Tampa Bay looking like one of the worst

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Speaker 4: teams in the league. So maybe the home team trend

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Speaker 4: that we've seen so far will start to normalize. But

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Speaker 4: definitely something to keep an eye on. And then the

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Speaker 4: importance of quarterback play. If you have a good quarterback,

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Speaker 4: and I think right now there are maybe three and

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Speaker 4: a half teams ish something like that that have good quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: If you have a good quarterback, you can run the

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Speaker 4: other team off the field. If you don't have a

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Speaker 4: good quarterback, you have no chance unless you're playing one

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Speaker 4: of the other teams that also doesn't have a good quarterback.

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Speaker 4: So that's where I am right now on takeaways from

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Speaker 4: this league. All right, let's get into Week three. We

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Speaker 4: have as the first game on the slate Saturday at

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Speaker 4: two pm, the Houston Roughnecks six and a half point

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Speaker 4: favorites right now at the Tampa Bay Vipers and over

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Speaker 4: under of forty five and a half at FanDuel Sportsbook. Sean,

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Speaker 4: what do you think of this game?

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Speaker 3: So, I mean, first off, I would expect you over

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Speaker 3: eighty percent of the action to be on Houston here,

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Speaker 3: so I could see this line going up to seven

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Speaker 3: pretty easily by the end of the week. You know,

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay kind of screwed me over last week, but

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Speaker 3: I'm still sticking with them as a team where I

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Speaker 3: think the underlying data shows they might be, you know,

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Speaker 3: a mediocre team by the end of the year. We

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Speaker 3: still don't know who's starting quarterback this week, so I'm

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Speaker 3: not going to pull the trigger until we find out

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Speaker 3: at least Aaron Murray's status.

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Speaker 2: But like you.

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Speaker 3: Mentioned, Tampa Bay, they have yet to play a home

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Speaker 3: game this year, so we might be overlooking them a bit.

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Speaker 3: They have had you know, seven red zone drives, which

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Speaker 3: I think is tied for the league lead, but they

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Speaker 3: have yet to come away with an offensive touchdown. They

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Speaker 3: had a score last week on the defensive side of

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Speaker 3: the ball, so I think the offense is underachieving a bit. Yes,

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Speaker 3: they've been brutal through two weeks, but they're at least

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Speaker 3: moving the ball going forward. I think Tampa Bay will

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Speaker 3: a team, will be a team that I find value on.

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Speaker 3: It's just tough. You know, Houston looks really good. They're

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Speaker 3: going to be able to move the ball pretty easily.

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Speaker 3: You know, when it comes to this home field factor.

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Speaker 3: It could come into play this week with Tampa Bay

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Speaker 3: and I'll probably wait to take them at the end

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Speaker 3: of the week when they're around, you know, plus seven

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Speaker 3: and a half and if Murray is declared active, so

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Speaker 3: they're a team I'll be looking about this week.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Sean, to your point about their inability to score points.

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Speaker 4: You know, they had a touchdown called back last week

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Speaker 4: on an offensive pass interference penalty from Dan Williams. Aaron

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Speaker 4: Murray didn't play last week, still on the injury report

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Speaker 4: this week, did not practice on Tuesday. We are recording

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Speaker 4: this on Wednesday. I'm not going to project him in

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Speaker 4: our projections which will be coming out, not going to

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Speaker 4: project him until we actually see him return to practice.

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Speaker 4: I'm a little bit skeptical that he's going to play

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Speaker 4: this week. Just have to wait and see.

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Speaker 2: Raymond. Where are you on this game?

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Speaker 1: I think the number is a little inflated. If you

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Speaker 1: look at our power ratings, we have it as about

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Speaker 1: a four point spread when you take a consensus of

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Speaker 1: all three of our ratings. And at the same time, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on Tampa Bay, especially with

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Speaker 1: their quarterback situation. I think the best way to invest

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Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay is to actually wait till after this

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Speaker 1: week because they already had the two road games. Now

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Speaker 1: they're coming home, but they're facing one of the top

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Speaker 1: two teams in the league in the Houston Roughnecks, and

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Speaker 1: their futures price after this game if they lose, will

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Speaker 1: probably be probably plus a thousand or something like that.

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Speaker 1: So at that point, you know, oh and three, it's

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Speaker 1: tough to come back from. But I do agree with

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Speaker 1: Sean that this is a team that they're more mediocre

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Speaker 1: and then flat out bad. I think Mark Trustman gives

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Speaker 1: them a chance, and you would think he would be

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Speaker 1: able to make some adjustments and get this offense gone

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Speaker 1: because that's really been the issue. They scored three points

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Speaker 1: in Week one against New York and then nine points

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Speaker 1: at Seattle in Week two, So I think that this

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Speaker 1: is a team that could turn around, But the way

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Speaker 1: to invest is probably in the futures market after this

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Speaker 1: game against Houston, I.

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Speaker 4: Don't know, Man, the futures market and a ten game

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Speaker 4: season with them being oh to three, that's I think

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Speaker 4: that's gonna be pretty tough. But it will help that

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Speaker 4: they're in the same division as the as the New

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Speaker 4: York Guardians. But yeah, let's talk about some of the

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Speaker 4: potential DFS plays in this game. For Houston, you obviously

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Speaker 4: have the wide receivers there. They you know, have the

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Speaker 4: run and shoot offense. They go four wide and they're

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Speaker 4: going against a viper's secondary that is pretty unsettled. And

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Speaker 4: I think they're already fairly bad at cornerback and fairly

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Speaker 4: thin at the position, and so the idea of them

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Speaker 4: having to have four cornerbacks out there defending four wide receivers,

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Speaker 4: you know, stretches them even more so, you know, looking

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Speaker 4: to the roughnecks for for some DFS plays. Where are you, guys, Sean?

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Speaker 4: What about you here?

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Speaker 1: Well?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know, Houston's gonna be pretty chalky

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Speaker 3: this week. But on the other side of the all Tampa,

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Speaker 3: I think Reese Horn at forty two hundred, he's my

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Speaker 3: He's my top wide receiver. That's under five k let

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Speaker 3: the team and routes run last week. Tampa offense has

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Speaker 3: yet to score a touch on this year, so again

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Speaker 3: they're they're gonna be a low owned and they're you know,

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Speaker 3: they're due. So I like him this because like a

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Speaker 3: cheap wide receiver flyer. It is worth mentioning that SJ.

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Speaker 3: Green has been traded to the Vipers or you know,

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Speaker 3: picked up he mysteriously like he didn't show up for

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Speaker 3: any Seattle practicer. I don't know what happened there, but

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Speaker 3: he's officially on the Vipers now, so he could have

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Speaker 3: a role in a few weeks. But this week, I

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Speaker 3: think Reese warns the guy I'm gonna be targeting. I'm

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Speaker 3: in that cheaper sub five K range out wide receiver, Raybon,

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Speaker 3: what about.

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Speaker 2: You for me?

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Speaker 1: Nick Howie stands out forty four hundred on DraftKings for

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Speaker 1: the Houston Roughnecks. He was a guy I think I

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Speaker 1: think it was you who brought him up last week, Freeman,

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Speaker 1: but there he is a running back by trade, but

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Speaker 1: they seem to be using him at wide receiver and

219
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Speaker 1: he his routes run last week spiked from six sixty

220
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Speaker 1: eight percent in Week one to ninety seven percent in

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Speaker 1: week two and he's still under five K. He is

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Speaker 1: my number nine wide receiver this week, so I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are going to be on Sammy

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Speaker 1: Coates and expecting some regression there, which will probably come.

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Speaker 1: But Howie was right there, tied for the team lead

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Speaker 1: with Cam Phillips, who of course had the monster game

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Speaker 1: in his eleven point one K. Howie was right there

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Speaker 1: in terms of routes run. And we only have two

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Speaker 1: weeks of data, so the routs run is still extremely

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Speaker 1: important when we're trying to project forward because you can't

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Speaker 1: just look at the targets by themselves in the small

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Speaker 1: sample size, but the guys that are going to be

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Speaker 1: out there on the field, those are the guys that

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Speaker 1: I want to target, especially for value. So love nik

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Speaker 1: Hahli a f forty four hundred, one.

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Speaker 4: Hundred percent with you, Raymon. I think that's really interesting

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Speaker 4: about Holly. You mentioned he was initially listed as a

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Speaker 4: running back for the team. He played some running back

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Speaker 4: in college. He played some quarterback in college, and also

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Speaker 4: some wide receiver. They're using him in the slot almost exclusively,

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Speaker 4: and that is where he's going to have one of

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Speaker 4: the better matchups because the perimeter quarterbacks they're decent, the

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Speaker 4: slot quarnerbacks for the Vipers are basically non existent, and

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Speaker 4: so out of all the wide receivers there, he's going

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Speaker 4: to be running as many routes as the other guys,

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Speaker 4: but he will have one of the best matchups in

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Speaker 4: the game. So, like the call on Nick Holly, the

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Speaker 4: next game, we're here, we have the Dallas Renegades favored

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Speaker 4: by five at the Seattle Dragons and we have him

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Speaker 4: over under. Actually sorry, four and a half. They are

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Speaker 4: favored by four and a half now at Fandoel Sportsbook

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Speaker 4: the over under is forty three and a half. Sean,

253
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Speaker 4: where are you with this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So, I mean Landry Jones. He looks he definitely looked

256
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Speaker 3: rusty last week, but he's still managed to throw for

257
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Speaker 3: three hundred plus yards and get the win. So I think,

258
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Speaker 3: you know, over time, he's gonna get better. He still

259
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Speaker 3: didn't look one hundred percent to me. He had some

260
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Speaker 3: scrambles where you know, he's just look awful running the ball,

261
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Speaker 3: But so so he'll continue to dump it off to

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Speaker 3: his running backs, I think going forward, but I think

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Speaker 3: he's gonna only get better. And you know at Seattle

264
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Speaker 3: is gonna be tough. We we figured they would have

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Speaker 3: a good home fieldvantage, but last week proved it. I

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Speaker 3: think this is probably a game where I'm probably gonna wait.

267
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Speaker 3: I could see Dallas coming out a little rusty again.

268
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Speaker 3: Maybe Seattle'll get a quick lead, and then I'll probably

269
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Speaker 3: come in on Dallas in game. I think that's why

270
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Speaker 3: I'm going to handle this because you know, Landry he

271
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Speaker 3: missed i would say four weeks leading up to the season,

272
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Speaker 3: so he miss key practice timing. This is a brand

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Speaker 3: new team, so that's that's gonna show on the field,

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Speaker 3: and we saw that last week. But I think over

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Speaker 3: the next few weeks, I think Dallas is going to be,

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Speaker 3: you know, a top three team. So looking back at

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Speaker 3: this line, we might consider a value. But I still

278
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Speaker 3: think they'll come out rusty and I'll be looking to

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Speaker 3: get them in game in this one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm still worried about the decision making of Bob

281
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Speaker 4: Stoops and how mummy they They're still very conservative on

282
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Speaker 4: third down and fourth down and seem to be willing

283
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Speaker 4: to uh to settle for field goals and field position

284
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Speaker 4: when they should probably try to push their advantage a

285
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Speaker 4: little bit more, but so that that makes me a

286
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:39,040
Speaker 4: little bit hesitant in terms of them covering. But yeah,

287
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Speaker 4: I think they're the more talented team. Uh the Dragons

288
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Speaker 4: at home though, I mean I think that is an

289
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Speaker 4: advantage there. And we have the the Renegades now on

290
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Speaker 4: the second game of a not back to back, but

291
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Speaker 4: second straight road game. So something to keep in mind, Raymond,

292
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Speaker 4: where are you on this game?

293
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Speaker 1: I think the line is pretty much right at five,

294
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Speaker 1: so not a ton of value there. I think if

295
00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:08,040
Speaker 1: I'm looking to bet it, I probably lean toward, you know,

296
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,400
Speaker 1: looking at the the under. Again, these these games have

297
00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:16,640
Speaker 1: all tended to trend under and Dallas in that game

298
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Speaker 1: against LA and LA there they were the worst graded

299
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Speaker 1: defense by PFF. Kind of talked about that heading into

300
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Speaker 1: the game. They did not look good on defense. Now,

301
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,880
Speaker 1: they did make strides, but that was a pretty low

302
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Speaker 1: scoring game until wait in the game when Dallas got

303
00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 1: a few things going. So I think the under for

304
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,000
Speaker 1: me is the is the play. I think the line

305
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,600
Speaker 1: is right in line. But I will definitely be watching

306
00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,720
Speaker 1: that this game because I think Dallas is the most

307
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Speaker 1: entertaining XFL team right now. Because Landry Jones's interviews, I

308
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Speaker 1: don't know if you guys got to see him, but

309
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Speaker 1: I mean every time he sucked, and he sucks a

310
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Speaker 1: lot throughout the game. I mean for all his yards.

311
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Speaker 1: There were a lot of drives where it was just

312
00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: bad and they would interview him and he was just like, yeah,

313
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Speaker 1: it just sucked. He was just playing horribly.

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Speaker 2: You know.

315
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Speaker 1: It was just it was just hilarious because he so

316
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 1: comfortable saying it and he was so calm. I'm definitely

317
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,320
Speaker 1: watching Dallas for that, but I think I'm going to

318
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Speaker 1: take the under and uh man, I really hope we

319
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Speaker 1: do not see Sewan another one of those LANDR. Jones scrambles,

320
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Speaker 1: because I mean the one where he just collapsed into

321
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Speaker 1: a heap. I mean he like did like a front

322
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:21,840
Speaker 1: roll stop drop like it was a fire or something.

323
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Speaker 1: And the crazy thing was he was like a yard

324
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Speaker 1: short of the first down and he had five yards

325
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Speaker 1: of open space.

326
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Speaker 3: It was totally ridiculous. Didn't they ask him like what

327
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 3: the hell was that? And he was like, I don't know,

328
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 3: but I think it goes to show, you know, he

329
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,680
Speaker 3: was willing to blame himself. And then on the flip side,

330
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Speaker 3: we saw Matt mcgoin blame everybody else. So I think

331
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Speaker 3: it just goes to show I think Landry Jones has

332
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Speaker 3: the right mindset QB. But yeah, I do love the

333
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 3: end game interviews. That's one of my favorite parts of

334
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Speaker 3: the XFL.

335
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Speaker 4: I let's talk about some of the DFS plays, and

336
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Speaker 4: I'm particularly interested in how you guys are projecting some

337
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,680
Speaker 4: of the running backs in this game. Seattle is a

338
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 4: team that relies a lot on the running backs, but

339
00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:01,440
Speaker 4: they're splitting the workload evenly between three guys. In Dallas,

340
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,240
Speaker 4: you have, I think two running backs who have upside.

341
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Speaker 4: Lance Dunbar, a good receiving back, Cameron artist Payne who

342
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,440
Speaker 4: got into the end zone twice last week and I

343
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 4: think had over one hundred rushing yards are pretty pretty

344
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,200
Speaker 4: close to it, you know, but in week one he

345
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 4: didn't really do much. But you know, so there's some

346
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,520
Speaker 4: potential there running backs. How are you guys evaluating them?

347
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:21,960
Speaker 2: Sean?

348
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so camera Ris Pain is my number one running

349
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 3: back now. I think he saw six targets as well

350
00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 3: as you know, he clips one hundred yards on the

351
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 3: ground and scored a touchdown. We really haven't seen that

352
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 3: kind of production from running back, so he's by far

353
00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 3: the number one back, and I have Lance Dunbar fourth

354
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 3: right now, just he's guaranteed to get you know, five

355
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 3: to six targets it seems like. So that's that's about

356
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 3: as much as you could ask for running back in

357
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,920
Speaker 3: the XFL. So I like him in a full PPR

358
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 3: set like DK on the other side of the ball

359
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 3: with Seattle, you know, a three back committee like that,

360
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 3: I would just fade completely. But to start the week,

361
00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 3: Camneth Farrow and Ja Kwon Gardner are both dealing with injuries.

362
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 3: So if if one or both of them are out,

363
00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,360
Speaker 3: Trey Williams is going to be a great play at

364
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,879
Speaker 3: five K. You know, he's looked good as well. So

365
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 3: if we clear up some of this committee, it's going

366
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,560
Speaker 3: to just open up more value for these backs. So

367
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,000
Speaker 3: that's something to monitor throughout the week. But I think

368
00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:17,879
Speaker 3: the guy I'm going to be targeting heavily again this

369
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:21,680
Speaker 3: week is Donald Parham. He's two K more expensive this week,

370
00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,399
Speaker 3: but I still think he's worth every penny. He's one

371
00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,960
Speaker 3: of those guys that I think that you know, he's

372
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,399
Speaker 3: definitely going to be given a second chance for the NFL.

373
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:30,680
Speaker 2: He's looked that good.

374
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,200
Speaker 3: I mean, his his frame is massive, and he showed

375
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 3: good chemistry last week with the Jones. He went five

376
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 3: catches for seven six yards in a touchdown. He saw

377
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 3: eleven targets, but he also he had to miss the

378
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 3: game a bit due to injury, and he still.

379
00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 2: Put up those numbers.

380
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 3: So he's dealing with the foot injury this week, so

381
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:48,679
Speaker 3: it's something and a honored But if he's shooting up,

382
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 3: even though he's a tight end at fifty three hundred,

383
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 3: I haven't projected, as you know, like a top fifteen receiver.

384
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 3: So he's going to be a must play for me

385
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 3: this week.

386
00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 4: Again, he's the Jazz Ferguson replacement we wish jas Ferguson

387
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,879
Speaker 4: would have been. That's what Parum actually is doing on

388
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 4: the field, and as great as his stat line was,

389
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 4: it could have been much bigger because he was opened

390
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 4: deep a couple of times and Landry Jones missed him

391
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,240
Speaker 4: by just a matter of benches both times. Raymond, who

392
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:15,400
Speaker 4: are you looking at in this game?

393
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 3: Yeah?

394
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 1: Cameras Paint is also my number one running back and

395
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 1: Lance Dunbar is actually my number five running back on

396
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:25,640
Speaker 1: DraftKings with the full PPR number seven on Fandel Both

397
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 1: of these backs are getting usage in the passing game,

398
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 1: especially Dunbar, so I think you really have to value

399
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 1: pass catching a little bit more heavily in the XFL

400
00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 1: because if you look at the average running back stats

401
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 1: per team, twenty point four carries for eighty point five

402
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 1: yards from running backs and just three point nine yards

403
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 1: per carry with only about point three touchdowns per game.

404
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 1: So that's a little bit below what we usually see

405
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and until that, it doesn't look like

406
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 1: it's going to change much. Maybe it kind of regresses

407
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 1: more close to you know, four point mid fours in

408
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 1: terms of the yards per carry, but we haven't seen

409
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: that yet, so I think that the pass catching is

410
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 1: a lot more valuable. Dunbar is the value at sixty

411
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 1: six compared to Artist Pain at eighty three, but I

412
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: think both of those guys are definitely in play. The

413
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: thing about Artist Pain was that both of his touchdowns

414
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 1: came in most of its yard it came late in

415
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 1: the game, and so I think Dunbar is a guy

416
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 1: I will be targeting a little more heavily, especially in tournaments,

417
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 1: because I think with the upside, artist Pain showed everyone's

418
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 1: going to be on him and there's so much value

419
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 1: that you can easily fit him in, and he's you know,

420
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 1: you only have to play one running back, so I

421
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 1: think a lot of people will gravitate toward him. So

422
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 1: Dunbar is probably going to be the guy for me,

423
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 1: and then Seattle. Yeah, they were pretty evenly split in

424
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,479
Speaker 1: terms of the running back usage. So right now with

425
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: Farrow and Gardner questionable, I it's kind of you know,

426
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 1: Trey Williams looks good, but if if they're all healthy,

427
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 1: it's kind of a quagmire and they're you know, there's

428
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 1: no real way to differentiate much between those guys. Gardner

429
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 1: hasn't been getting quite as much of the past game work,

430
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,199
Speaker 1: Williams has been the most productive guy, so I probably

431
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,919
Speaker 1: still lean him, But it could get it could get

432
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:11,679
Speaker 1: kind of ugly. So it's probably a stay away from

433
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 1: me in terms of the backfield in West at least

434
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 1: one of those guys that are out.

435
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, honestly, I have Artist pain in Dunbar as my

436
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 4: two highest projected running backs for DraftKings, and you know, like,

437
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 4: on the one hand, that's probably wrong, but like there

438
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 4: are two of the three highest scoring running backs in

439
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,239
Speaker 4: the league right now, and you know, like we can

440
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 4: project them for decent usage in the passing game and

441
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 4: our DraftKings especially that means something.

442
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 2: So that's that's where I am. You know.

443
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 1: Another kind of strike against the Seattle running backs is

444
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 1: that on Pro Football Focus, the Dallas Renegades have the

445
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 1: highest run defense grade in the league at eighty three

446
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 1: point one. The median is about seventy, and there's four

447
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 1: teams sixty two or less, but Dallas leads the league

448
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 1: at eighty three point one, so it might not be

449
00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,360
Speaker 1: much happening on the ground for for Seattle game.

450
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 4: All right, Next game on Sunday, we have the New

451
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 4: York Guardians at the Saint Louis BattleHawks.

452
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 2: This line has moved.

453
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 4: The BattleHawks are now favored by ten. I believe this

454
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 4: line opened around eight something like that, and we have

455
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:18,439
Speaker 4: an over under of forty and a half on FanDuel sportsbook. Sean,

456
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 4: what do you think of this game?

457
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 3: Saint Louis has definitely been the biggest surprise of twenty twenty.

458
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 3: You know, they were considered i would say bottom two

459
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 3: team heading in and now they look like a top

460
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 3: three team. So you know, they won at Dallas and

461
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: then lost a close game at Houston, which is one

462
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 3: of the top two teams, and they get their first

463
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 3: home game this week, so obviously I want to bets

464
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: Saint Louis, but at minus ten, I don't think I

465
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 3: could do it. I sit here and make cases for

466
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay offense not being as bad as the score,

467
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 3: but New York was just as bad as the score

468
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 3: indicated last week. I mean, their offense never reached the

469
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: red zone. So yep, the shout out makes sense. So

470
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 3: you know, I don't like New York. Here the line

471
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,719
Speaker 3: looks about right, but I think the over under I'm

472
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 3: going to be joining Raybon on the undertrain here.

473
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 2: I think game would be the way to do this.

474
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 3: I think I could see Saint Louis getting out to

475
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,360
Speaker 3: an early lead, you know, scoring on the first driver

476
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 3: or something. But Saint Louis is built to kind of

477
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 3: play with the lead, so I could see them getting

478
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 3: up early and then just the pace of this game

479
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 3: to go to a grinding halt. And that's that's been

480
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 3: all comment on the under. So I think that's how

481
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 3: man approach this game.

482
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 2: I love it. One idea.

483
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 4: I think you could just parlay the three unders that

484
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,199
Speaker 4: don't have the roughnecks, you know, like the roughnecks scare me.

485
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 4: I don't want to go there, but I think there's

486
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 4: there's undervalue on the other three games, especially this game,

487
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 4: and so that might be something if you just put

488
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 4: just a little bit on it, not a lot, but

489
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 4: just a little bit too you kind of have a

490
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 4: little fun there.

491
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 2: That might be a way to do this. Raveon where

492
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: are you on this game?

493
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 1: I totally agree with Sean. I want to bet the

494
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 1: battle Hawks. I was all over them last week. I

495
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 1: was that was my favorite XFL moment of the year

496
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: so far. My guy Jordan Tamu on the fourth and

497
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 1: long after the penalty converting the first getting a touchdown

498
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 1: for the cover to cover the eight was seven and

499
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: a half. I think I got him an eight and

500
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 1: a half, but they ended up closing at seven and

501
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: a half, So really happy about that. Saint Louis the

502
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 1: team I've liked from the jump. I think they're a

503
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: lot better than we thought. And the key is and

504
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: I wrote this up in our Favorite Bets piece on

505
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot com last week, they're great at tackling. Saint

506
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: Louis is a great tackling team. Far in a way

507
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: the best tackling team in the league, and so yeah,

508
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 1: I do agree with that with the undercall Sean. For

509
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: Week one, Saint Louis missed three tackles, Week two, Saint

510
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: Louis missed four tackles. The league average is around it's

511
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 1: in the double digits, and so that just kind of

512
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: shows you how well and how fundamentally sound Saint Louis

513
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: is and when they're playing against a team like New

514
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 1: York who just got shut out, that just does not

515
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: bode well. So it's too early to really rate any

516
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 1: matchup as a ten point spread at this point. Our

517
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: consensus line actually has this as a five point spread,

518
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: so from that standpoint, and again it's just too early

519
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 1: to project these huge numbers and this is this line

520
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: is inflated. But at the same time, I don't feel

521
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: great about the Guardians, you know, I really don't, just

522
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: because of how good Saint Louis is tackling. So probably

523
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: a game where yeah, I just look at the under

524
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: to kind of to kind of get some value, or

525
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: maybe even the under if they if books are releasing

526
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: team totals later in the week, like they do for NFL,

527
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: looking at the under the team total for the Guardians

528
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: as well.

529
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, there might be theoretical value on the Guardians, but

530
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 4: there's no way I would actually bet on the Guardians

531
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 4: right now. I just I couldn't do it no matter

532
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 4: I mean the team.

533
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 3: If they announced that they're starting Marquise Williams or even

534
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,959
Speaker 3: Luis Perez, would that change your opinion on them?

535
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 4: Or I think it would be better for them right yeah,

536
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 4: because I think like a worst case scenario is they

537
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 4: go with mcloyin and then they bench him at halftime

538
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 4: and then bring up the like another quarterback. No, I

539
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 4: think they either have to stick with mcloy the whole

540
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 4: time or just bench him now and go with the

541
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 4: other guy. But given how they've kind of screwed things

542
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,239
Speaker 4: up so far, I imagine they will do the thing that

543
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 4: is for them.

544
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: Where are we with DFS plays.

545
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 4: It's hard to go, I think, with anyone on the

546
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 4: Guardians right right now, although you can make a case

547
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 4: for Michael McKay, but Saint Louis BattleHawks. You know, Matt

548
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: Jones is interesting. Jordan Tamou, I think you know, he's

549
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 4: he's a half tier below Cardell Jones and PJ. Walker,

550
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 4: But I think he's clearly a top three quarterback in

551
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 4: the league right now. You know, he has three pretty

552
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 4: balanced wide receivers, just in terms of how that wide

553
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 4: receiver unit is constructed and then the way that they

554
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 4: are being used. How are you guys approaching DFS, Sean.

555
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: So for DFS, I really love la Damian Washington at

556
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: eight K. Like, there's two receivers, it's Nelson Spruce and

557
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 3: Cam Phelps there by far the top two wide receivers

558
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 3: in my model, and then there's a huge drop offs

559
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 3: and I have Washington actually third. It's pretty close between

560
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: like wide receivers three and like ten if I want

561
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 3: to be honest, And he's only eight K, so he's

562
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 3: the eleventh most expensive receiver. Plus by tim he's a

563
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 3: pivot off Pearson l who's two k more expensive, And

564
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: I consider them. I mean they're one two punch, they're

565
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 3: basically the same model. So if Washington's gonna be hopefully

566
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 3: lower owned at that price, I think he's gonna be

567
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 3: one of my heavier plays this week, just because, like

568
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: I said, there's there's a big drop off after the

569
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: top two. But I would considering the number three just

570
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 3: based on underlying usage. This offense and yeah, Aka, I

571
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 3: think he's a great play, right, bun.

572
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 2: What about you?

573
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: Tam Ou to me, I actually have him a hair

574
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: ahead of Walker and Jones. He is my number one

575
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: quarterback this week, so I definitely think he's a top

576
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: three play. If you look at you know, the film

577
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: kind of backs it up. He is the number two

578
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: rated PFF quarterback in terms of his passing grade and

579
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 1: his overall grade, and out of the five quarterbacks that

580
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: started two games, he has the highest completion percentage by

581
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: far at seventy eight point one percent, and that's on

582
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: the second most attempts sixty four attempts, so it's not

583
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: like a small sample size. He's fifty of sixty four.

584
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: The next highest is Soil Walker at sixty two point

585
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 1: three percent, and tam MoU also tied for the league

586
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: lead in yards per attempt among those quarterbacks at seven

587
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 1: point seven. So I really liked tam Moo and was

588
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: really impressed with what he did against Houston. I think

589
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: if you watch the game, he threw a pick a

590
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: crucial It turned out to be a really crucial pick,

591
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: but he thought he had a free play because it

592
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 1: was somebody did, in fact jump and the refs missed

593
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 1: the call and that that game could have been totally different,

594
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: saying Louis probably perhaps wins that game if not for

595
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: that that that switch, because you know, the interception was

596
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 1: returned and they got a touchdown out of it.

597
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 2: I believe.

598
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: So I think Tambo and in this squad are kind

599
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: of a high upside team I'm looking at I'm looking

600
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: at him. And then for running back, I think Matt Jones.

601
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 1: He's been a high usage guy. He's been active in

602
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: the past game, and he's getting double digit carries, which

603
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: you can't really say about many backs in this league

604
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: at this point. So Jones, I like Tambo, and I

605
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: will be stacking Saint Louis haveaway. I think Pearsonnel kind

606
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: of really showed that he's the go to guy. He's

607
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: a guy he's not going to put up a huge

608
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 1: yards per catch, but he's kind of that underneath security

609
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: blanket who for this league gets opened pretty well. So

610
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: I like Pearsonnel, like Tamboo, and like Matt Jones.

611
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 4: All right, and with you there on tamm and the

612
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 4: one thing that he has going for and that the

613
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 4: other guys don't even though they are their competent runners.

614
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 4: I mean, I say even good runners like he's a

615
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 4: very good runner, and they just use him a little

616
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 4: bit more in the running game. And I think he

617
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 4: scrambles a little bit better than the other guys. Who

618
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 4: has a higher rushing floor there, so you know, another

619
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 4: reason to like him. The final game we have here,

620
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 4: DC Defenders favored by eight at the LA Wildcats right now,

621
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 4: a over under of forty four at fanduble sportsbook Sean,

622
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 4: what do you think.

623
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 3: So, I mean, this is the best team versus the

624
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: worst team in my power rating, so this line looks

625
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 3: about right. I thought Defenders were going to open up

626
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: maybe double digit favorites, like minus ten, but you know,

627
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 3: we're not quite there yet. I think it could end

628
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: up there. These two teams made a trade last week.

629
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: You know, DC got Anthony and Johnson looked great. He

630
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 3: had two sacks. I would consider DC the most complete

631
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: team in the league. So it'll be interesting to see

632
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 3: how they handle a team like LA on the road.

633
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: They should win handle league, but we'll see how they

634
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 3: handle the situation. LA coaching has been disaster. I mean,

635
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 3: Norm Chow hasn't been great. Winston Moss was just chilling

636
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 3: on the lines last weekend. I consider LA the worst team.

637
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: You know, I'm right in line with the market here,

638
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 3: So this might be something I wait to come in

639
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 3: in game. If LA were to get up early, I

640
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: might come out of DC. But I'm I'm just staying

641
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 3: away from this game in general. I'm just not sure

642
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 3: how this game is gonna play. And like I said,

643
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 3: I'm pretty much in line with the minus eight and

644
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: a half, so I'm not going to touch this one.

645
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: Raybone, where are you?

646
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have it a whittle lower in terms of number,

647
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: But I agree the LA Wildcats, you know, as Sean

648
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: alluded to, just do not look well coached. Now, they

649
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: did make strides on defense. It seems like perhaps that

650
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: you know, all that upheaval actually helped them a little bit.

651
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: They were able to hang in there for three quarters

652
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: against Dallas and then kind of fell apart in the

653
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, so that that's a positive. But man, I

654
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: mean DC was impressive in their twenty seven zip shutout

655
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: of the Guardians. So it's Carlo Jones and he's far

656
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: and away the best rated quarterback in terms of his

657
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: PFF grade, and this LA team they missed a ton

658
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: of tackles, missed thirteen in last week's loss to Dallas,

659
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: and that's hurted him on defense. So this this is

660
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: a game where I think it's one where I want

661
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: to bet the under as well. But I'm a little

662
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 1: concerned just because LA's defense has been pretty bad and

663
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: if yeah, they're the worst rated actually the worst rated

664
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: defense out of all the defenses in PFF, worse than

665
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: even Seattle. So LA's defense kind of worries me against

666
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: this defenders team that has been impressive two weeks in

667
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: a row, thirty one points in week one, twenty seven

668
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: points in week two, and now they're facing the worst

669
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,959
Speaker 1: defense in the league. I mean, they could put up

670
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: a big, big number. So this is a high upside team.

671
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 4: On the one hand, I think this number is fair.

672
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 4: On the other hand, if I had to bet one

673
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 4: of these teams, it definitely wouldn't be the Wildcats, even

674
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,719
Speaker 4: at an eight point spread. You look, Raybon, you mentioned

675
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 4: the Wildcats with their defensive struggles. They had Jalen Dunlap

676
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 4: and Harlan Miller as their starters at corner in week one.

677
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 4: Dunlop was out in Week two and Miller played through

678
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 4: his doubtful designation, but he played only you know, like

679
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 4: eleven snaps or something like. He wasn't one of their

680
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 4: primary quarterbacks out there. You know, they're both uncertain for

681
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 4: Week three, So we could have one of the best

682
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 4: offenses in the league going against a team without it

683
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 4: two starting perimeter cornerbacks, and I just think that Rashad

684
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 4: Ross and DeAndre Tompkins on the outside could destroy whoever

685
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 4: they're going against. So a good situation for them. Where

686
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 4: are you guys on DFS, Sean, who are you looking at?

687
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 3: So DeAndre Tompkins, for sure, he's just way too cheap

688
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 3: at fifty seven hundred. Unfortunately, I think he's gonna be

689
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 3: super shocky, so make sure you have him if you

690
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 3: don't want to, you know, get lap by the field here.

691
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 3: But he missed week one and then week two, he

692
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 3: loved the team in targets, so I think that we

693
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 3: saw we saw him runner route on seventy percent of

694
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 3: dropbacks that should only go up. It looked like he

695
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: basically took away Dupree's role, and he looked. Tompkins looked

696
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 3: really good and had a touchdown. He's just way too

697
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: cheap given this usage and being on you know, a

698
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 3: high scoring offense. Like DC just way too valuable at

699
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: fifty seven hundred pass up this week.

700
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 2: All right, Raybon, what about you? Yeah?

701
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: I love that call on Tompkins. And I think if

702
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: you look at the routes run, Ui Rodgers ran ninety

703
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: five percent of the route so he's obviously in play

704
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: as well. Top five wide receiver in my model, Tompkins

705
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: as well. But Ross is probably the guy who's a

706
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: little bit overpriced, just because he's up at ninety four

707
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: and he ran sixty seven percent of the routes. Now

708
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,479
Speaker 1: he's a big play guy. I think he's averaging twenty

709
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: four yards per catch, so you know, obviously eight in

710
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: play in tournaments. But I think Tompkins is a great value.

711
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: And then looking at the running backs, Donel Pumphrey he's

712
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: my number three running back on DraftKings this week. He's

713
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: obviously very active in the passing game, kind of one

714
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: of those darren Sprolls type of guys. He's seven K.

715
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 1: But again, I don't think you really have to worry

716
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: about running back prices because you only need one, and

717
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: there's so much value at wide receiver, and especially if

718
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: you know it's kind of a game theory play. But

719
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: in tournaments. I think those DC wide receivers as high

720
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: upside as they are, they're going to be pretty highly owned.

721
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: So owning a guy like Pumphrey and Jarrell Presley there

722
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: other running back. Both of those guys are in my

723
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: top seven, so Presley's it's Pumphrey three and then Pressley's seven.

724
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: Forty four percent of the routes for Pumfrey thirty six

725
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: for Presley last week. They're both pretty active in the

726
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: in the receiving game and both getting a fair amount

727
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: of carrier. So I like both of those guys. And

728
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 1: then on the LA side, LA because of how bad

729
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: their defense is. You know, Nelson Spruce has really benefited

730
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 1: and he's put up some huge numbers, so he's now

731
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: ten point nine K. But again, there's so much value

732
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: that I think you can kind of mix them in,

733
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,720
Speaker 1: and I think the way to do it would be

734
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: in a game stack with DC, because remember DC putting

735
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: up a lot of points in the first two games

736
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: and twenty seven or more, and then they're going against

737
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 1: the worst graded defense, so LA probably is going to

738
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: have to throw and Spruce is going to be the

739
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 1: guy that would would benefit I think the most from

740
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: that so I don't mind kind of spending up on him.

741
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 1: It's kind of tough to know exactly what's going to

742
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: happen after. I mean, Trey McBride, I think he was

743
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: active last week but didn't even play. He's three point

744
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: three K. We expected big things, or you know, we

745
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: expected him to be a factor here. Adonis Jennings has

746
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, take taken some of those snaps,

747
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 1: and he saw an increase in his usage up to

748
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the routes last week. So he's

749
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: he's three K. So he's a guy that, depending on

750
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: what happens with Sayed Blacknall, who's questionable, you know, Jennings

751
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 1: could be a guy that, especially if McBride is still

752
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: going to continue to be you know, take, they're taking

753
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 1: baby steps with him. I think Jennings is a sneaky

754
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: play given the potential games for.

755
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think he caught a three point conversion, yeah.

756
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 1: The first in history, yep, yep. And and the guy

757
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: I'm fading is Elijah Hood. I think he had a

758
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: couple of goal line carries, didn't really get it done.

759
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 1: They don't seem like they can get him, you know,

760
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 1: in the end zone, I think that would really be

761
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: his his value. And on top of that, he's not

762
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: been active in the passing game, and that's the real problem.

763
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 1: You know, he had a three percent target share in

764
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 1: we one, zero percent in week two and he ran four.

765
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: He went his routes from nine percent in week one

766
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: to forty four percent in week two. He didn't even

767
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 1: get a target despite all of that. But I think

768
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 1: depending on what happens with Dwan Harris in week one,

769
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: with Harris active, the running backs were all not as

770
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: involved in the past game. But you know Hood's past game,

771
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: you should spiked with Harris out Martez Carter the returner,

772
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 1: he's also a running back. I could see them start

773
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: to work him in more if he's not really contributing

774
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: in the past game. So he Hood is my number

775
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: eleven on fan dou twelve on DK not really feeling

776
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:34,280
Speaker 1: him this week.

777
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 3: Hood definitely had the best end game interview. They they

778
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 3: asked him what happened on that fumble?

779
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: Did you hear that?

780
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 3: He dropped like two f bombs and six words?

781
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah, I'll be watching. I just won't

782
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: be rostering, yeah, and.

783
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 4: Just sitting there slumped on the bench looking like he's

784
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 4: about to cry.

785
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: It's it's fantastic.

786
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 4: I love the endgame interviews when they talk to people

787
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 4: who just messed up. That is so much better than

788
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 4: when they talk to people who just did something good.

789
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: I mean, and the best is like the like the

790
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 1: overly optimistic quarterbacks, like the like Josh Josh Johnson's like,

791
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: we'll do better. Just gotta finish drives. Just gotta finish drives.

792
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 1: We'll do better, We'll do better, and then like the

793
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 1: end of the game comes, then they lose, and like

794
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 1: he does, it can verys like just had to do better. Man,

795
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: just had to do better. It's like, damn bro, like

796
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 1: we could see this coming from my boy.

797
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 2: Yeah.

798
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 4: Well, I love when they asked, like, what do you

799
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: need to do to score more points and they're like,

800
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 4: finish drives, and it's like I basically just asked you

801
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 4: what did you need to do to finish drives and

802
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 4: you just said finish drives. Anyway, Okay, let's talk quickly

803
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 4: about some futures. We have the DC Defenders now at

804
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 4: plus two hundred, the Houston Roughnecks at plus two fifty,

805
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 4: the Renegade six to one, Vipers eight to one. Guardians

806
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 4: and battle Hawks are both ten to one. The Wildcats

807
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 4: and Dragons are both fourteen to one. Raymond, you already

808
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 4: kind of jumped the gun on this, so I'm going

809
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 4: to jump ahead of you before I kick it to

810
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 4: you on this. The BattleHawks ten to one, I think

811
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 4: it's a great bet. They were nine to one last week.

812
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 4: I honestly think their odds should be shorter now, even

813
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 4: though they lost, because they know that Week one wasn't

814
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 4: a fluke, you know, as road underdogs, and back to

815
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 4: back games in weeks one and two they covered against

816
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 4: I think, you know, two of the better teams in

817
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 4: the league. Certainly Houston is one of the better teams

818
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 4: in Week two, and they were like, they were tight,

819
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 4: like they could have won that game if some things

820
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 4: had gone just a little bit differently. And you look

821
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 4: at the conference that they were playing in in the East.

822
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 4: They have the Vipers, they have the Guardians. Neither one

823
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 4: of those teams I think is going to threaten their

824
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 4: spot for the playoffs. So I think they're locked into

825
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 4: the playoffs. And at that point, it's relatively easy to

826
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 4: think that just on their style of play and their defense,

827
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 4: that they can hang with the Roughnecks or the Defenders.

828
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 4: So I love them at ten to one, Raybon, I'm

829
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:46,280
Speaker 4: assuming that is your your favorite futures bet on the board.

830
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,320
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean you asked me on the Serious

831
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: XM Show a few days ago which team I liked,

832
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 1: you know, not even looking at value, and I still

833
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 1: like Saint Louis as one of the top teams. And

834
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: this is the week to bet them, Like, bet Saint

835
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 1: Louis now before they play, because they are big favorites.

836
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: What are they the biggest favorites on the board right, Yeah,

837
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,959
Speaker 1: they're ten point favorites against the team that scored zero

838
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: points last week, and they are still ten to one.

839
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: They are the number three rated team in PFF overall,

840
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: and just the hair behind they're right there with the

841
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: other two top teams, the Houston Roughnecks and the DC Defenders.

842
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 1: Roughnecks at seventy five point nine overall team grade DC

843
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 1: seventy three five, Saint Louis seventy two nine, and then

844
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 1: Dallas a distant fourth at sixty four point nine. So

845
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: I love Saint Louis any team anytime you're getting it

846
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: in an eighteen league, you're getting a team better than

847
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: eight to one. I think it's it's a value when

848
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: you think that team has a real shot at the title.

849
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 1: And I think, you know, as as you said Freeman,

850
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 1: I think they might actually be, you know, one of

851
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: the top three and could be even better than that.

852
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: We'll see as these things play out. But because they've

853
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: had a tough strength to schedule. So I I really

854
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 1: like Saint Louis. I think TAMOU has exceeded expectations and

855
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: they're extremely efficient on offense, with TAMU leading the league

856
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: in completion percentage by a mile in terms of the

857
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 1: guys who started two games, and then on defense they

858
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 1: do not misstackles, just seven in the two games combined.

859
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 1: So I love Saint Louis at ten to one. I

860
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: have already paid money on them.

861
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, agreed, I've already bet this. I think if you

862
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 4: have a top three quarterback, you're probably a top three

863
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 4: team in the league, and TAMU is a top three

864
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 4: quarterback corner. I'm assuming that this is also probably your

865
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 4: favorite futures bet on the board.

866
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:35,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think St.

867
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 3: Louis at ten to one is by far the best value.

868
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 3: They should probably be closer to six to one with Dallas,

869
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 3: and we have yet to see them play at home,

870
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 3: so they got their first home game this week. I

871
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 3: think they'll probably have the second best home field advantage,

872
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 3: just behind Seattle, so we'll see that this week. Like

873
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 3: Ray Bond said, get in on them now. I do

874
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 3: think Dallas at six to one has some value. Like

875
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 3: I said earlier, you know, they looked rusty with Landry Jones,

876
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 3: but the potentials and I think towards the end of

877
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 3: the season that could be top two, top three team.

878
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 3: And with a team like Houston. I've been watching Philip Walker.

879
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 3: He reminds me a lot of Deshaun Watson, both good

880
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:13,280
Speaker 3: and bad. He's been taking some massive hits. I'm worried

881
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 3: about his long term health. If he were to get

882
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 3: hurt or something, you know, Dallas or Saint Louis would become,

883
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 3: you know, a top two team. So I think there's

884
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 3: potential in these markets right now. I'm just worried about

885
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 3: just Walker's playing style, that he's going to be able

886
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 3: to get through ten games. So that's that's something you

887
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 3: hate to say it, but I think that there's some

888
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 3: hidden value just based on that. I think they're going

889
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 3: to be a very vulnerable team going forward. So Dallas

890
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 3: at six to one and Saint Louis at ten to

891
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 3: one are my favorite players.

892
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 4: Okay, So wrapping up favorite bets for Week three, mine

893
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 4: is probably the under on Guardians battle Hawks, and although

894
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 4: that is the lowest total on the board right now

895
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 4: at forty and a half, I just have major questions

896
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 4: about the Guardian's ability to score any points. And then

897
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 4: based on the BattleHawks the way that they play, I

898
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 4: could see them getting out ahead and then just running

899
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 4: the ball, which would drive the game to the over.

900
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 4: So I'm seeing more of like a thirty four to seven,

901
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 4: thirty four to ten, sorry, twenty four twenty forty seven

902
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 4: to twenty four to ten type of game here. So

903
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 4: I'm taking the under New York Guardians BattleHawks forty and

904
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 4: a half. Raybon, what is your favorite bet of Week three?

905
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 2: Yeah?

906
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: So my favorite bet is Saint Louis his future first

907
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 1: and foremost. Don't go give me no no, I got you,

908
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: I got you, I got you. So my favorite non

909
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 1: Saint Louis future bet is Renegades Dragons under forty three

910
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: and a half. I think you know we've seen the Dragons.

911
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 1: They don't have a great defense. But Dallas they played

912
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 1: pretty poorly for three quarters on offense, but they do

913
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: play good run defense, and we saw Seattle play a

914
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: pretty well scoring game. Granted, Tampa Bay didn't have their

915
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: quarterback starting quarterback last week, but I think this is

916
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: one of those over runders where it's not the rough

917
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: Necks and it's essentially the It's right there with the

918
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,720
Speaker 1: d c l A game as the second highest total,

919
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 1: but the difference is LA's defense is so bad and

920
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 1: DC's offense looks really good. So this the Dallas Seattle

921
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: game when I'm looking to hammer unders. That's the game

922
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: that kind of stands out for me where things go

923
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: a little differently. That Dallas game last week could end

924
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: up pretty well scoring. And I don't think the Dragons

925
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: are going to necessarily be a team that lights up

926
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: the scoreboard this season, and but they are at home

927
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 1: and so I think that helps their defense play a

928
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,320
Speaker 1: little better. And just looking forward to more of Landy

929
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: Jones interviews.

930
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,320
Speaker 2: All Right, Sean, your favorite bet for Week three?

931
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 3: So I really want to bet the Vipers again this week,

932
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 3: but again I'm gonna have to wait.

933
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 2: For Aaron Murray status.

934
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 3: I am not going to be putting money on Taylor

935
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,399
Speaker 3: Cornelius again, I promise. So that's that's a bet where

936
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 3: at the end of the week, if Murray looks good

937
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 3: and they're getting over seven points, that will be my

938
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 3: favorite bet. But being realistic, I think that New York

939
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 3: Saint Louis in game under is what I'm going to

940
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 3: be attacking. Like I said, I can see Saint Louis

941
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 3: scoring early in this game against New York and then

942
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 3: the games is going to come to a grinding halt.

943
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 3: So I could see them, you know, scoring on the

944
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 3: first drive, the total maybe going up to like forty

945
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 3: two and a half or something, and then just hammering

946
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 3: the under. Yeah. I do like the under forty and

947
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 3: a half, but I just think in game we're gonna

948
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 3: get a little bit higher number just based on the

949
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: expected flow to start and then hammer the under in

950
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 3: game on that one.

951
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 4: Great call there, that's gonna do it. For this episode

952
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 4: of the Action Network podcast. You can follow Sean, Chris

953
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 4: and Me in the Action Network app at the Underscore.

954
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 4: Odds maker Chris, Raybond, and Matt f the Oracle use

955
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 4: the app to get real time odds and track your

956
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 4: bets for free. Check out the rest of our episodes

957
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 4: and live shows this week. Please subscribe to and rate

958
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 4: interview the show on Apple Podcasts, radio dot com, or

959
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 4: wherever you get your podcasts and don't forget You can

960
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 4: listen and download on Spotify.

961
00:44:55,239 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 2: See you again next episode.

962
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: We're finished talking