1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, so you can hear the chatter. 2 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 2: It's from the crowd. 3 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,879 Speaker 1: We have a big chant, a big chance to make 4 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: it the lun question, big bucks, three pointer. Fine, Welcome 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast. Glad to have you with us. 6 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: My name is Matt Moore. I'm the senior NBA writer 7 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: for the Action Now we're joining on my colleague, professional 8 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: vetter Roheem Palmer to talk a little NBA. Want to 9 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: let you know right off the top, if you're out 10 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:37,959 Speaker 1: in Vegas next week, Action Network is hosting a pre 11 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: NFL Draft happy hour at Circus Stadium Swim in downtown 12 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: Las Vegas next Wednesday, April twenty seventh. We've got an 13 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: open bar, surprise guests, and betting tips from some of 14 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: your favorite Action pros. The event's twenty one and up 15 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: and it's totally free, but does require an RSVP, So 16 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: if you're in Vegas next week, just check out the 17 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: link in the episode description to rsvp you. I run 18 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: down some NBA futures with you. We're not going to 19 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: get into specific game coverage on this podcast. If you 20 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: want to hear more about that, check out Buckets. It's 21 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: our daily NBA podcast. You can find it wherever you 22 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: get podcasts, and we break down the lines absolutely daily 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: for all these playoff games. We give you angles on 24 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: series as they evolve. Check them all out if we 25 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: want to get you a big picture look at how 26 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: to bet the NBA playoffs. Raheem, you'ven been in NBA 27 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: for years. I want to start right here. What is 28 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 1: your like general strategy when it comes to NBA playoffs? 29 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: Because I'll tell you, like from from watching you and 30 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: you know, following your work and tracking your bets in 31 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: the app, I can tell you like how I cand 32 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: of see it, which is in the playoffs? Like I'm 33 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: always looking for the big picture, right, Like I want 34 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 1: to know, like who's going to come out of this 35 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: seven game series, who's going to match up with who? Like, 36 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: what does this look like if they get past them? 37 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: What's the other matchup? And what's the best value I 38 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: can get on finals matchups and whatnot. You, on the 39 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: other hand, I've noticed you will see specific game opportunities 40 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: and you'll hit them big. What's your basic approach to 41 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: betting the NBA playoffs? 42 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 3: I mean, I think you mentioned part of it is 43 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 3: just finding those big edges to where I'm just hammering it. 44 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 3: But I have like a series of rules that I 45 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 3: kind of follow, not necessarily rules, but I guess just 46 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 3: different angles. So I say the first one is you 47 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 3: naturally one of beat openers because you can get the 48 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 3: early numbers. I also look for, like I played a 49 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 3: zigzag theory a ton and that's one that you'll see tonight. 50 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 3: So and I don't necessarily play the zigzact theory the 51 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 3: way I did in the past. I don't do it 52 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 3: with every game. But if you look at top three 53 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 3: seeds coming off of game one loss, that's twenty eight 54 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: and sixteen, that's hitting sixty four percent. So in the 55 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 3: first round of the playoffs right now you have the 56 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 3: Memphis Grizzlies. They lost game one, so that's a good 57 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 3: spot to take them. Another one is I like to 58 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 3: look at mid series adjusted prices because I think that's 59 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 3: where you can get your best value on something that 60 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 3: might not have been there game. So it's like the 61 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: Dallas Mavericks Luca Is coming back. Obviously, I think you 62 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 3: took the Dallas Mavericks after Game one because they're at home. 63 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: You know, you're anticipating Lucas coming back. You can get 64 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 3: a better number. If you like the Brooklyn that's you 65 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 3: can get them now the better number that. 66 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: You would have got. So that's another angle. 67 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 3: Another angle that I really like to play is I 68 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 3: like to fade teams coming off of Game seven like 69 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 3: that is one of my favorite angles in because I 70 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 3: discovered this a couple of years ago when the Golden 71 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 3: State Warriors played the Cleveland Cavaliers. I always said to myself, 72 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 3: if the Golden State Warriors had played any other team 73 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 3: other than the Oklahoma City Thunder, I think they win 74 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 3: those finals. You look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, they beat 75 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 3: up on the Toronto Raptors. I know, win six games, 76 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: but it was the easy series. So I went and 77 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 3: I look back and I found all the teams that 78 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 3: played at game seven and how they do in the 79 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 3: following series. Teams that win Game seven are thirty two 80 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 3: and forty nine. That's thirty nine percent straight up in 81 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 3: game one of the following series. So, Matt, I know, 82 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 3: we always talk about that Bucks and Raptor series. The 83 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 3: Raptors were coming off of gruel in Game seven, and 84 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 3: you saw they were lead most of that game. They 85 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 3: ran out of gas in that game and they end 86 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 3: up losing. You even go even deeper teams that went 87 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,720 Speaker 3: because game one. If you go up game one, that's 88 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 3: a big part of the series, so you lose game. 89 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 3: Teams that lose game one tend to lose the series 90 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 3: more often. So I looked even deeper. Teams that win 91 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 3: game seven are just thirty four and forty six. That's 92 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 3: forty one percent straight up in the following series altogether. 93 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 3: So that's a big yeah. Like so winning a game set. 94 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 3: So you look in this year's playoffs, the Brooklyn Nets 95 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 3: and the Boston Celtics, if they go face a Bucks 96 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 3: team which just sweeps the Bulls or wins in five, 97 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 3: they're a severe disadvantage. So I like to look at that. 98 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 3: Another one is the home teams down two in the 99 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 3: first half. That's thirty two and ten. That's seventy six percent. 100 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 3: Another one is just playing unders. Unders are like I mean, 101 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,559 Speaker 3: you look at right now in the NBA playoffs, unders 102 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 3: are absolutely dominating, And you look at all time the 103 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 3: last seven seasons, unders are two sixty nine and two 104 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 3: twenty eight. That's fifty four percent. But that means more 105 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 3: unders are going to hit more often than not. And 106 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 3: then when you go even deeper. Game seven unders are 107 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 3: thirty three and twenty one. That's sixty one percent. So 108 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 3: those are some of the angles I like to play. 109 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: So I want about this zigzag because you talked about 110 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: this a little bit, but even I'm a little confused 111 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: on it. So you've mentioned that zigzact doesn't mean what 112 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 1: it used to. It is that do you think a 113 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 1: reflection of variants? Do you think it's the way that 114 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: the game is played with three point shooting? Do you 115 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: think it's the market getting ahead of these moves and anticipating, 116 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: because like we haven't necessarily seen like a lot of 117 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: that in what we've seen in these games, Like we're 118 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: recording this on Tuesday night right before you mentioned Minnesota Memphis, 119 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: and you know, maybe Memphis comes out and wins that game, 120 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: and it's exact, maybe the Wolves won that game and 121 00:05:58,160 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: it's not I thought a case, it won't necessarily prove 122 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: it prove the angle. But why do you think that 123 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: the zig zags theory isn't as much of an auto 124 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: play as it used to be. 125 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: I think there's a greater disparity in the top teams 126 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 3: and the lower tier teams. Like do I really want 127 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 3: to be on the Atlanta Hawks to like, I mean, 128 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 3: I guess you're gonna hear this podcast later, but I 129 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 3: don't necessarily want to be on the Atlanta Hawks against 130 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 3: the Heat. After what I saw in that first game, 131 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 3: I think there's a greater disparity in Well, let's talk. 132 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 1: About tomorrow, because you like the Celtics tomorrow. 133 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I do like the Celtics. 134 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: Like, so when this comes out, you like the Celtics, 135 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 1: I'm on the nets in this one, like I am 136 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: going zigzag, but I'm not necessarily going in for zig 137 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: zag reasons. 138 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 3: I also think home I actually think home court advantage 139 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 3: in the playoffs is just so much higher as well. 140 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: What do you have a number and last. 141 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 2: Year's postseason, I have it five point nine to six. 142 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: That's a high number, you know. I wonder some of 143 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: that though, is like the first playoffs after the pandemic, 144 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: Like I wonder if like there's like period there too, 145 00:06:57,880 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: like the pandemic stuff messes with I think a lot 146 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: of it. Let's go through some series and touch on 147 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: a couple of different ways to kind of bet these series. So, look, 148 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: you're on Boston tomorrow, which means they're gonna be up 149 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: two to oh you like them? Before the series, I 150 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: was on Brooklyn you and their colleague Brandon, I thought, 151 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: leaning a little bit more towards Celtics. Do you have 152 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: a series bet on Net Celtics. 153 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I took the I took the minus one thirty, 154 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 3: and I mean I wasn't fortunate enough to get the 155 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 3: plus one point fifteen of Caesar's had, but. 156 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: I wish I did to explain that the Celtics actually 157 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: opened as a dog at Caesars and immediately got just 158 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: hammered like everyone like everyone bet Celtics that first night, 159 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: and that's why the line moved there. Let's kind of 160 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: project out a little bit. If the Nets win Game two, Okay, 161 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: it's one one took a buzzer beater, right, yeah, do 162 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: you in that situation? Are you in a spot where 163 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: you're like, I guess here's the question. At what point 164 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: do you only hedge if you're like, I'm buying out 165 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: of this position because I like, what's the threshold for 166 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: price that you'll take that you'll take a buyout basically 167 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: to try and wash. 168 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: It pretty much close to even money. 169 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 3: I think if the Celtics lose, this will probably go 170 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 3: back to around the original price, And I mean I 171 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 3: could buy out there, but I'm just I'm confident in 172 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 3: the Celtics. 173 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: Okay, so if they if they lose tomorrow, you're still 174 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: you still like Boston. 175 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I still like Boston. Like I would have to. 176 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 3: I would have to see something dramatic in order for 177 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 3: me to like buy out. Like I think the one 178 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 3: time I saw something dramatic was in the finals last year. 179 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 3: I was on the Suns to start the Finals, and 180 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 3: then when I saw the way to the Sun's lost 181 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 3: game four, I said, oh, the Bucks are going to 182 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 3: next two games and stuff like that. 183 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: If you like Boston in the series, you're gonna get 184 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 1: approximately like the same number pretty roughly, just adjusted for 185 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: home court, like we think probably what Boston might or 186 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: Brooklyn maybe minus two at home the Sun by right, you. 187 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 2: Can be three. Yeah, I probably see like around two 188 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 2: or three something. Three. 189 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: Do you just bet Boston game by game? Then, like, 190 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: if you're if you're just like I like Boston in 191 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: this series, I think they're gonna win it, do you 192 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: just bet Boston game especially because here's what I my 193 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,839 Speaker 1: thought is to me, whoever is getting points, I think 194 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: I'm going to probably bet their money line. Like I 195 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: took Boston, I took the nets spread for game two, 196 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: But when this goes back to Brooklyn, I'm probably gonna 197 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: betting Celtics money line because I just think that you're 198 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: getting an edge with I think this should be a 199 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 1: coin flip. I think this should be one minus one 200 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: ten either way. I just think this should be exactly 201 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: dead even. I think it should be a pick them 202 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: on the spread. I think it should be minus one ten, 203 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 1: regardless of home court or not. Like it's not that 204 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: I disregard home court, it's that that's within the margin 205 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: for me. If this was like five on the road, 206 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 1: it's different for me than if if we're in a 207 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: basically a one possession game. That to me means that, 208 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: Like I like, if I think that the two teams 209 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: are even, I'll take the variants on winning the game 210 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: or not. Do you get a spot though, I'll ask 211 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 1: you this, have you take have you ever in your 212 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 1: career have you bet a team just been like, I'm 213 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: just gonna bet them game by game, Like I'm just 214 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win. I like them to win 215 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: the majority of these matchups, So I'm gonna bet them 216 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: game by game. 217 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 3: I've done that. I've definitely done that, like I'm a 218 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 3: lot of times. See, the thing is for me is like, 219 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 3: when I really like a team, I'm trying to get 220 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 3: us down as much money as possible. So I'm taking 221 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 3: them series, I'm taking them spread, I'm taking them money line. 222 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 3: I'm just like, I've run out of money before I 223 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 3: can get down any like as much as there's not enough. 224 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 2: Money in the world to get down what I want 225 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 2: to get down now. 226 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 3: I'm treading lightly with this one just because the KD 227 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 3: and Kyrie factor is very scary, and I think that's 228 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 3: where you're kind of accurate when you say maybe you 229 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 3: should just be taking the dog in this in every 230 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 3: game because they can make everything a coin flip. But 231 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 3: to me, the problem with that is when I look 232 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: at the nets, they aren't good in clutch situations because 233 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 3: they can't get any stops. Like they were up one 234 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 3: oh seven, one oh two and they couldn't get stops. 235 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 3: They were up one fourteen one eleven and they could 236 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,719 Speaker 3: not get any stops. So to me, if you're in 237 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 3: a coin flip situation that favors Boston me like we 238 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 3: saw a Thursday night game against the Bucks where Chris 239 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:23,439 Speaker 3: Middleton got ejected. 240 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 2: They were up. 241 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 3: Ten with two minutes to go and they lost. So 242 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 3: it's just like, I don't trust this next team to me. 243 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 3: It's like the Nets either have to blow you out 244 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 3: for me to feel safe with them winning. 245 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: Now on the Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy 246 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: platform today with millions of players. You probably already have 247 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: a fantasy league on there. I use it for mine. 248 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry, 249 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 1: and now you could win on Sleeper by playing their 250 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: new over undergame. It's super simple. 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Let's talk about Sixers Raptors, because you we 270 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: kind of you started when we still get into our 271 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: series previews over at Buckets, you kind of started off 272 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 1: like a little bit leaning Raptors, and this is one 273 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: where I pulled you over the other way. And now 274 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: it's Sixers two oh even increased. I think your position 275 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: on them. I have six ers, like I have six 276 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: ers minus two and a half. I have six ers 277 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: minus one and a half. I have six ers to 278 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 1: win the series, like I bet the sixers every which way. 279 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: I bet Raptors spread sixers money line on game two 280 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 1: and lost the Raptors spread. I feel okay about it. 281 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: I think this spy is an interesting one, just in 282 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: terms of it seems very downhill right now, right in 283 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: terms of like we're at the spot it's two to oh, 284 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 1: the Raptors haven't hung, Barnes is out, GTJ is sick, 285 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: Attius Young's banged up, friend Van Vliet's got a knee. 286 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: It seems very downhill here. I still bet Raptors money 287 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: line in Game three at a plus number. I do 288 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 1: not see the Raptors going out like that, like I 289 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: don't see them going out in a sweep, so I 290 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 1: will go ahead and bet the rap like I thought 291 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: the Raptors in that game. My question for you is 292 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 1: like a more broad question here is at what point 293 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 1: do you think, like what is the to you is 294 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: the determining factor between trusting in a sweep versus like 295 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: a gentleman's like what's that gap there for trying to 296 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: figure out? Okay, I think they can win one game, 297 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: but not more. I think they can win too, Like 298 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: how do you go about trying to factor all that in? 299 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 3: I think I have to see signs of life, and 300 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 3: right now I'm not. I mean, look, we saw it 301 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 3: in the first quarter, but like I need, I need, 302 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 3: like to me, I would trust the Bulls to get 303 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 3: a gentleman suite over the Raptors or the Nuggets. Like, 304 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 3: to me, it's like the second half of these Raptors 305 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 3: games aren't even competitive, and I think that's what I 306 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 3: need to see. 307 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 2: I need to see some. 308 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 3: Level of competitiveness, and I'm not seeing that with the Raptors. 309 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 3: And I mean, of course, a lot of this is 310 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 3: depending on how the game is officiating. Because you've got 311 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 3: Joel and B basically shooting fourteen free throws in the 312 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 3: first quarter of Game two, and it just gets this 313 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 3: team out of rhythm. But I don't know how much 314 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 3: that changes when you have Joelle and B and James 315 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: Harden who just gets to the line at will. So 316 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 3: this is a Raptors team that really can't score in 317 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 3: a half court that's been an issue the whole year. 318 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 3: I think the Sixers take care of business. I'm gonna 319 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 3: be honest with you. I just think this is like, 320 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 3: here's the thing. We've spoken at length about the Sixers bench, 321 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 3: But that offensive unit, that five minute unit is outscoring 322 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 3: teams by twenty points born in the possessions the second 323 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 3: best net rating in the league, and I just don't 324 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 3: think that the Raptors can match that. 325 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: Let's see the Sixers are as you imagine, pretty heavy 326 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: favorites now to win the series outright, I will say, well, 327 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: I guess here's the questions, like do you think that 328 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: it's gonna be, like, do you think it's to be 329 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: a sweep? 330 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a sweep. And actually this is 331 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest with you. Game three is actually 332 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: my favorite game of the series, okay, because if you 333 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 3: can get and this is this is the angle. Like 334 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 3: you have some people who look at it like this, 335 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 3: I'm looking to back that team in Game three and 336 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: get them at some value at home. But I kind 337 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 3: of look at it like this. If you can find 338 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 3: a superior team facing an inferior team and the market 339 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 3: loves that inferior team, you have a huge edge. 340 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, like you got the. 341 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 3: Sixers laying to tomorrow or like you look back at 342 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 3: Bucks versus Heat Game three. 343 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bucks weren't. 344 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 3: Laying anything and then they like, I mean it's a 345 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 3: thirty point game by the half. So it's like I 346 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 3: like to play though, I play those spots, like, honestly, 347 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 3: this is game three, and you can't do it with 348 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 3: every game. You got to figure out which team is 349 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 3: like really vastly superior to the other. But if you 350 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 3: can find that edge, you can get a cheap price 351 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 3: on it. 352 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: Sixers four to one is plus one seventy six ers 353 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: four to ozh is plus two hundred, So I get 354 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: like yore, Here's a question, is do you ever bet 355 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: these multi ways? Because like I do this a lot 356 00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: just because I'm never certain. I'm not as certain as 357 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: you are. I'm always racked with indecision. I'm a Gemini, right, 358 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: So like if you bet if I play a unit 359 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: on four to one, right, that covers me in the 360 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 1: event that it's that they get a game, and then 361 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: I make a little bit more full unit advantage on 362 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 1: four uh if I just I'm just like I do 363 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: not think the raptors are gonna win two games. Is 364 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: there value in hedging yourself that way? Like how much 365 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: do you hedge before you're in a hedge position? 366 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 3: I mean I rarely ever hedge, Like I probably should 367 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 3: be hedging more, but I rarely ever hedged like I mean, 368 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 3: like I'm I'm the type of person I'll add more, 369 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 3: like I'll add more like I mean for me, it's 370 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 3: just like I like game three like Game three to me, is. 371 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 3: I'm trying to hammer that because if the Sixers win 372 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 3: Game three, they're gonna be laying seven eight points for 373 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 3: Game four and then I can't even get involved at 374 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 3: that point. That's probably the way to hedge, where it's 375 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 3: just like if you bet the suite, you can come 376 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 3: back on them in game four, you can come back 377 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 3: on other team in game four at an increased number. 378 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: I'm not interested in Hawks he yet. I'm not interested 379 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: in Bucks Bowls much yet. We'll see how those series progress. 380 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: Let me ask you, what's your favorite Eastern Conference bet? 381 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 2: My favorite Eastern Conference bet. 382 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: Is this series? You got future? Anything for me? 383 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,719 Speaker 2: Right now? I'm gonna say, take the Sixers win the East. 384 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, let's talk about that for a second. 385 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: So let's assume that he get passed the Hawks, right yeah, 386 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: And let's assume the Sixers get pass the Raptors and 387 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: throw up two zero and the dominated them and Barns 388 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: is out. That's pretty reasonable. It could change while we 389 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: watch sports, right, You and I have been on the 390 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: same we're on the same thought process for the Eastern Conference. 391 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: We're just at a crossroads where both of us think 392 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 1: that there's the value is the market is badly adjusted 393 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: towards the teams that are in that other bracket. Right, 394 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: So if at DK we got Bucks plus two ten, 395 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: now I got lots of props on the Bucks at 396 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: longer numbers, So I'm fine there Celtics plus three hundred, 397 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: and then it shifts. There's a there's an you know, 398 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: it's it's ninety between Bucks and Celtics, and then it's 399 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 1: eighty between Celtics and Heat to plus three eighty and 400 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:22,439 Speaker 1: then Sixers are just there are about ninety what is 401 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 1: that ninety five behind ninety five cents behind the Heat 402 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: at plus four seventy five, So you get the best value, 403 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: like you're getting the best number on the sixers. I 404 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: think the Heat Sixers matchup in the second round is 405 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,479 Speaker 1: really fascinating. And whenever I've thought about it, and whenever 406 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: I've worked it through in my head and looked at 407 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: the numbers and how it goes, I lean Heat because 408 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: I look at the Heat as all of the stuff 409 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: that we felt about the Rap that people thought about 410 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: the Raptors. I think the Heat actually are The Heat 411 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: have actual like they have championship level toughness. They have 412 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: a great coach that can disrupt Joel Embiid. They have 413 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: Bam Onebayo, who in three in his career straight up 414 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 1: versus Joel Embiid, and Joel doesn't shoot well in those matchups. 415 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,719 Speaker 1: It's not just because of Bam, but Bam does a 416 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: heck of a job on him. They got Dwayne Dedman 417 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 1: to use fouls on him. They got Tyler Hero, They've 418 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: got Duncan rot Like. They have a balance of offense 419 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: and defense where you and I kind of agree, like, yeah, 420 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 1: but that Heat offense makes me nervous, But I worry 421 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,360 Speaker 1: about that Sixers defense. I think this Sixers defense looks 422 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 1: good because the Raptors have no one that can create 423 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: on the perimeter. So I really like that second round matchup. 424 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: Like I'm with you in that I think there's better 425 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: value on the other side of the bracket. But I 426 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 1: wind up with Heat plus three to eighty or better 427 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: if you can find it in the market, relative to 428 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: Sixers plus four seventy five. Why do you like the 429 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: Sixers plus four seventy five? 430 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 3: I have to think that starting lineup is just too good. 431 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 3: I mean, right now, like I said before, they're outscoring 432 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 3: team's bout twenty points from our possessions. It's like, and 433 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 3: I noticed team doesn't have a bench, but I think 434 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 3: Harton can carry that second unit against his Heat bench. 435 00:20:58,600 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 2: I really do. 436 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 3: Way MAXI is playing right now, I just think I'd 437 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 3: rather take the better offense than the better defense. Yeah, 438 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 3: I mean, at least in this in this scenario, I mean, 439 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 3: obviously the Nets are in a similar position, but the 440 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,959 Speaker 3: Sixers defense isn't nearly as bad as the Nets defense. 441 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 1: And look, you can get better numbers. Sixers are five 442 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: to one over a man, like, yeah, you get you 443 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: get a better number. And I do think it's close 444 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: enough to where I think there's value there. But I 445 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 1: do think if you're looking at that at the Conference, 446 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: you got to look I think more towards that side 447 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 1: of the bracket. M You know, look, I think if 448 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: you ask me who's gonna win the East, I'm gonna 449 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: say the Bucks. I have the most I have the 450 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 1: most faith in the Bucks. If you ask me where 451 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: the value is, it's on the Heat, the or the Sixers. 452 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 1: Whoever you think is gonna win that matchup. That's where 453 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: I think your money needs to go. If your bet 454 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: in Eastern Conference, I mean I'm. 455 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 3: Gonna be honest with you, I think the Celtis are 456 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 3: the best team in the conference. Okay, I just can't. 457 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 3: I can't. I can't bet them just because they're they 458 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 3: have the toughest role, Like this is probably the toughest 459 00:21:55,440 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 3: rope we've seen since Dirk had to go through Kobe. 460 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 2: Durand under it. 461 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: Yeah Lebron, yeah yeah, yeah yeah. I'm not there on Boston. 462 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: We'll see it. We'll see how how net Celtics works out. 463 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: That's gonna be a fun one to watch. It should 464 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: be a long series. I will say that there's part 465 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 1: of me that's kind of gone the other way and 466 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: been like maybe that game was like that Game one 467 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 1: was the flip game, and maybe I should be on 468 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,680 Speaker 1: like Celtics in five, like Celtics minus two and a 469 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: half at a eight plus number, Like maybe I should 470 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 1: go that way. I've gone over the tape twice and 471 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 1: I can't get there. We'll see how I feel after 472 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: GAM two. Now, a word for our friends at HYMNS. 473 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: When it comes to sports betting, there's no shortage of 474 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: problems to talk about, but there's definitely one problem. 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Look, 500 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: if the Grizzlies get back on track versus the Wolves, 501 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,479 Speaker 1: that's a problem for the Warriors. I do think this 502 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: version of the Warriors is so dangerous it may change 503 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: the equation of that matchup. I like Memphis versus Golden State. 504 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 1: Now I bet Minnesota to win the series, so I 505 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,439 Speaker 1: obviously think that the Grizzlies aren't getting there. But if 506 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: the Grizzly, if I'm wrong and the Grizzlies do beat 507 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: the Wolves, that matchup actually is really good for Memphis 508 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: because the Warriors want to play in chaos, the Grizzlies 509 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 1: playing chaos. The Warriors will hit a bunch of threes, 510 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,640 Speaker 1: the Grizzlies will turn them over a bunch. The Grizzlies 511 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,719 Speaker 1: don't turn the ball over much unlike the Nuggets. Like, 512 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: that's a really fascinating matchup, and so like a lot 513 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 1: of this is I need the Wolves to win because 514 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: I have Warriors futures, so I'm worried if the Grizzlies 515 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,360 Speaker 1: win that I'm gonna have to Like, if the Grizzlies 516 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: win this series, I'm gonna have to shift to Like 517 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: I bet the Suns early in the season and built 518 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 1: a position on them, I'm gonna have to add to 519 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 1: that a lot because I am worried about the Warriors, 520 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 1: even as hot as they've been, even as dominant as 521 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: they've been. Like I'll be on Grizzlies plus one and 522 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 1: a half, two and a half, whatever, then it's probably 523 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 1: gonna be one and a half. It's gonna annoy me 524 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: because I'm gonna be like they just struggled with Minnesota, 525 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: but the book's gonna be like not falling for it. 526 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: This is the two seed they got home court. You're 527 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,440 Speaker 1: not getting a good number on Memphis. I just kind 528 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,399 Speaker 1: of look at this and go again, kind of like 529 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 1: with the other one, where whoever you think has the 530 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 1: best value out of Suns and Warriors, Like, whoever you 531 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: think is gonna win that matchup, you should betting them 532 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: now because you're gonna get a longer number than you 533 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: will in the Conference finals. Nothing stopping Phoenix until they 534 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: get there. Now, this might be a spot where we 535 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: go back to your seven game thing, right, like, yeah, 536 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: Griz Warriors go seven. I'm gonna be like, oh god, 537 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: oh God, and I'm gonna have to bet the Suns 538 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 1: at a number that's gonna be painful to me. But 539 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:46,959 Speaker 1: that's kind of like how I cap the West. How 540 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:47,479 Speaker 1: do you see it? 541 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,399 Speaker 3: Look, I'm we're on the same page, and I have 542 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,360 Speaker 3: to eat my words on the Warriors because I think 543 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,880 Speaker 3: the Warriors are just they look like a juggernaut right now. 544 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 3: And we had the death line up we had to 545 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 3: Hampton fob and now we have this new lineup with 546 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 3: three guards pull Clay Curry, Wiggins and Draymon and it's 547 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 3: just look, I mean, I know it's just the Nuggets, 548 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 3: but think about scored the Nuggets like forty two to 549 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 3: fourteen in the ten minutes in the series, like up 550 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 3: into that first half. So it's just I think there's 551 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 3: value on the Warriors futures right now. But I mean, 552 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 3: I think you make a great point on the Grizzlies 553 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 3: right now. I mean, the Grizzlies they can turn this 554 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 3: team over. They're deep, they have the athleticism that the 555 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 3: Nuggets don't have to deal with that three guard lineup. 556 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 3: So I think that's very scary, Like that's a scary series, 557 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 3: and I think the Warriors would ultimately pull it out. 558 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 3: But it's not a series I feel comfortable with. 559 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 1: So I guess what's gonna be interesting. I don't have 560 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: a number in mind, but the books are gonna have 561 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: to put the Warriors as a heavy enough favorite that 562 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: they're not going to take an ungoddly amount of money 563 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,719 Speaker 1: on them. It's gonna be so imbalanced, so they have 564 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: to make them pretty heavy because everybody there's the Warriors 565 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: are such a public team. The Warriors are a public 566 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: team that's the most fun team to watch, and they're 567 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,439 Speaker 1: like back, and everyone's talking about the Warriors are back. 568 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 1: So it feels like there's this opportunity, like the books 569 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 1: are gonna have to put this pretty heavy and at 570 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 1: that point, like I have to bet Grizzlies. Yeah, And 571 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: I don't like that's gonna be nerve wracking in all 572 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 1: sorts of ways. But like I've seen the matchup, I 573 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,719 Speaker 1: know that this Warriors team is way better than it 574 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,360 Speaker 1: was last year. Again, I bet Warriors preseason to win 575 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: the title. I bet step to win MVP rip to 576 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,439 Speaker 1: those like I knew how good the Warriors were gonna be. 577 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: This Grizzlies team, even though this team is better than 578 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,880 Speaker 1: last year's team, This Grizzlies team went in to Chase 579 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: Center and beat them in that play playing game that 580 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 1: was wild, and then they beat them in the regular season. Like, 581 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 1: does that mean that they're gonna win the series? No? 582 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: Does it put value on on the price because I 583 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be close enough. Yeah, Like, I just 584 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 1: think that the ev is gonna be on Memphis to 585 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: a point. I'm I don't walk into this going like, yeah, 586 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: like Memphis could win, but like the Warriors are gonna 587 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: win this series. I genuinely would go into that series 588 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 1: being like, no, no, I think Memphis. I think Memphis can 589 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 1: win the series. I think this is much closer than 590 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,919 Speaker 1: what the market's going to reflect. So I'm hoping, hoping 591 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: that it's Wolves, and then I'm just betting. I'm betting 592 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 1: Warriors mins two and a half on the wind spread, 593 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 1: and we're going all the way with Warriors and Sons 594 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: matchups like finals matchup bets versus whoever I think is 595 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,639 Speaker 1: coming out of the East, Like just going that way 596 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: and going to town on those That's that is how 597 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 1: I'm bet in the Western Conference. 598 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's a smart way to play it. Yeah, 599 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 3: because I mean, look, look, if the Grizzlies even beat 600 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 3: the Warriors, I don't even see them beating the Sun. 601 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 3: So I just think, I mean, I think you're looking 602 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 3: at a two You're looking at a two team race 603 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 3: for the West. 604 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. 605 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 1: Like again, if Grizzlies make it, I have to bet 606 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: Grizzlies and I have to bet Sons, And I don't 607 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: want to do either of those things because I really 608 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 1: like the Warriors overall chances of winning the Western Conference. 609 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 1: What I do think is gonna be fascinating is when 610 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 1: we get to a finals matchup, because whether it's Suns 611 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: or Warriors, and those are to me are the only 612 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 1: two teams that can win the West. Like Grizzlies can 613 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: beat Warriors, but can't beat Suns. Warriors can beat Suns, 614 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: but I think they'll struggle versus Memphis enough for it 615 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 1: to be in doubt. 616 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 3: One thing I want to say, though, and what point 617 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,720 Speaker 3: is their value on the Mavericks, Because I do think 618 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 3: if they can get past this series and if Luca 619 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 3: is healthy. 620 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 2: I think that's a tough matchup for Phoenix. 621 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: I think it's tough. I got to get into it 622 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: a lot of is I gotta see what Luke, what 623 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: Luca looks like. I got a friend that's that had 624 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: that suffered a calf injury and like he didn't think 625 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: that Luca could come back in the series at all 626 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: because he was so painful that it was raheem by. 627 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 3: The way, Yeah, I mean they're they're saying he's coming 628 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 3: back for Game three. 629 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: But no, they said game three or game four, depending 630 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 1: on how the workouts. Yeah, Like I think he probably 631 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 1: misses Game three and comes back for Game four. 632 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that makes sense. But I mean I think, 633 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 3: I mean, Brandon always likes to long shots. He's not 634 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 3: on his podcast, but this is something that if I'm 635 00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 3: taking a long shot, why not. 636 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,760 Speaker 1: I may have I may have stuffed away in under 637 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: some books here. I may have a Maverick Sixers ticket 638 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: that I took back way back in like like at 639 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:16,479 Speaker 1: All Star, I grabbed Maverick Sixers, which payout on that 640 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: is substantial. It would be a wild series of events 641 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: that was what it was. 642 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 3: You can get the Mavericks and plus twenty four hundred 643 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 3: to win the Western Conference. 644 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 1: I can't. I can't get there. I just you know, 645 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,000 Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson had a really great game in Game two. 646 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: I like the MAVs in that game. Yeah, this is 647 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 1: that's more about Utah to me. Yeah, Dallas mashup with 648 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 1: Bhanx pretty well, and Dallas honestly beat the pants off 649 00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 1: of Golden State in the regular season. Now, I don't 650 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 1: go a lot off of the outcomes of regular season. 651 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 1: I go a lot off of how the mashups go. Yeah, 652 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 1: it'll be I'll play it this way. If the MAVs 653 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,600 Speaker 1: come out of this series, I'm gonna have to spend 654 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 1: a lot of time, Like I'll have to spend a 655 00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: full day just trying to figure out where I'm at 656 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 1: on Dallas. They're a very tough team, I think to 657 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:03,720 Speaker 1: figure out, and I just we can't. 658 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 2: I don't understand how it's so good defensively. 659 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, the FS is really that good. Like 660 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,719 Speaker 1: that's really kind of like he's a good example of 661 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 1: how perception did not catch up to him in time 662 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 1: of how good he is. Like that's a legit DPO 663 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: wide canidate next year. Yeah, and you know they battle underneath. 664 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 1: I think the only problem is the Sons are gonna 665 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: switch and the Sons are not going to be the 666 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: Sons are gonna dare you with like they can perimeter contain. Yeah, 667 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 1: that's kind of the difference is the Suns can perimeter 668 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: contain and that's what the Jazz can't do. Yeah, that's 669 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: a gap between them. Is they got Michale Bridges and 670 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 1: Bookers honestly pretty good, and they got Chris Paul and 671 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 1: they got Jay Crowder, so they can contain an ISO 672 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: and so they can keep Ayden out of the lane 673 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 1: and still get stops. They don't have to have Ayton 674 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 1: under the rim, and if they really need to, they'll 675 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: go small ball with either Crowder or find somebody else 676 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: to play five. Like they can go small enough. But 677 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: I will say this, like that's probably a where I'm 678 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 1: betting the series spread on the MAVs because it's gonna 679 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,600 Speaker 1: be like my son's minus two and a half and 680 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,000 Speaker 1: a minus number. So I'm probably gonna take the plus 681 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 1: two and a half at a plus number on on 682 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 1: Dallas and be like, I think they can get you know, 683 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: two games. 684 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I can agree with that. 685 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 3: The Jazz just I mean, Harral Bob said it on 686 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 3: Twitter other day, but it's just like they just have 687 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 3: a bunch of Turnstiles and then they have Gobert and 688 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 3: then I mean I. 689 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 1: Was just look, I'm doing a breakdown for that for 690 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: that game my Action Network when this podcast is posted. 691 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: Herral Bobs is a genius and a smarter better than I. 692 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: But I will say he's one of the of those 693 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 1: that that they're in the Rudy Gobert camp. But that's fine. 694 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 1: You can be in that Rudy go Beart camp. I'm 695 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 1: telling you. The problems were equally Donovan Mitchell and Rudy 696 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: Gobert in that game too. Yeah, but that's We'll talk 697 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 1: about that more on Buckets, which you can find on 698 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 1: Thursday afternoon wherever you get podcasts. That is gonna wrap 699 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 1: it up for the Action Network podcast. Thanks for joining us. 700 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: You can follow Raheen Palmer in the Action Network app 701 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: for all of his picks. Follow us every day on Buckets. 702 00:32:58,200 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 1: You can check out our work an NBA bet and 703 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 1: da dot Com slash NBA bet. We'll see again next 704 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: time on the Action Network podcast. 705 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:06,720 Speaker 2: Take Care