Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,
Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of
Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Susan Rice says Trump's calls to
Speaker 1: putin a peer illegal. We have such a great show
Speaker 1: for you today. Justin Wolfers, the host of the Think
Speaker 1: Like an Economist podcast and a professor of economics and
Speaker 1: public policy at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public
Speaker 1: Policy at the University of Michigan, talks us through Biden's economy.
Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Michigan Senator and DSCC chairperson Gary Peters,
Speaker 1: and he's going to talk us through the Senate map
Speaker 1: for Democrats.
Speaker 2: But first the news Somali, I am going to shock
Speaker 2: you here that the Trump family has some eyes on
Speaker 2: business in Israel. Who would have ever thought of them
Speaker 2: including over in that region.
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course it is. Any time that Trump World
Speaker 1: is interested in a particular country, there's always always a reason,
Speaker 1: and often it's real estate. Trump organization it was in
Speaker 1: talks about Israeli hotels before the Hamas attack of October seventh,
Speaker 1: and says that they want to resume them in the future.
Speaker 1: This will be if Donald Trump wins the presidency. An enormous,
Speaker 1: enormous conflict of interest, which is why we know that
Speaker 1: Donald Trump will try it if he is elected. Yet again,
Speaker 1: just such a dishonest and bad way to run a government.
Speaker 1: Jesse Cannon. President Biden had to give a long, long
Speaker 1: briefing today.
Speaker 2: Well, I feel like there was a while where we
Speaker 2: weren't hearing as much looney stuff from Marjorie Taylor Green,
Speaker 2: but she is back on her bullshit like no one
Speaker 2: has been lee.
Speaker 1: President Biden gave an hour plus briefing about the previous
Speaker 1: hurricane and Hurricane Milton, which will by the time this
Speaker 1: podcast drops have hit Florida. This is really unusual for
Speaker 1: Biden to do, or even for any sitting president to do,
Speaker 1: but because of the flood of misinformation and disinformation coming
Speaker 1: largely from Republicans, Biden had to do this. He also
Speaker 1: had to say.
Speaker 3: Now the claims are getting even more bizarre. Congress from
Speaker 3: Marjorie Taylor Green and Congress from Georgia is now saying
Speaker 3: the federal government is literally controlling the weather. We're controlling
Speaker 3: the weather. It's found ridiculous. It's got to stop. Almost
Speaker 3: like this. There are no red or blue states. There's
Speaker 3: one United States. Of America where neighbors are helping neighbors.
Speaker 3: Volunteers and first responders are risking everything, including their own lives,
Speaker 3: to help their fellow Americans. State, local and officials are
Speaker 3: standing side by side of a repeat. No one should
Speaker 3: make the American people question whether our governments will make
Speaker 3: sure that this is acting round of strikes. They'll be there.
Speaker 1: That's a sense of what President Biden had to do
Speaker 1: today in the hopes of debunking some of this Republican misinformation. Disinformation,
Speaker 1: pretty bleak moment in American life.
Speaker 2: So my Trump went on some one of these podcasts
Speaker 2: that Baron's been telling them to go on with. I
Speaker 2: can't even tell who it is, and I usually know these,
Speaker 2: but there's a pretty funny moment we're going to listen to. Now.
Speaker 4: I have a hard time doing it to them, because
Speaker 4: you know, I'm basically a truthful person.
Speaker 1: But here's a great sign that you're not a truthful
Speaker 1: person when you say to the podcast that you're on,
Speaker 1: which is a podcast of your supporters, I am basically
Speaker 1: a truthful person, and the host cannot stop laughing. That's
Speaker 1: what a Litnus test. If you're wondering when you say
Speaker 1: a statement like I'm basically a truthful person and the
Speaker 1: other person finds that hilarious.
Speaker 2: Funny enough, somebody pointed out that when he was on
Speaker 2: lex Fridman, he also said something like this, and Lex
Speaker 2: Fredman couldn't even keep a straight face through a similar
Speaker 2: statement of.
Speaker 1: His Yeah, amazing stuff.
Speaker 2: I feel like this is one of those things that
Speaker 2: we see with Trump all the time, that the same
Speaker 2: story resurfaces with that's the same theme, but just a
Speaker 2: different detail, And this time it's about Trumo's Trump God
Speaker 2: Bless the USA Bibles? Where do you see, dearby so these.
Speaker 1: God Bless the USA Bibles. You'll remember last week we
Speaker 1: learned that the only Bible that can meet the specs
Speaker 1: for Oklahoma's Bible mandate for the schools was the Donald
Speaker 1: Trump God Bless the USA Bible. Remember that, Well, you're
Speaker 1: going to be shocked to find out where the Donald
Speaker 1: Trump God Bless the USA vibe are printed. Yes, you
Speaker 1: got it. A country that Donald Trump regularly accuses of
Speaker 1: stealing American jobs and engaging in unfair trade practices, A
Speaker 1: country that Donald Trump wants to enact high tariffs on
Speaker 1: the country of China. Global trade records reviewed by the
Speaker 1: Associated Press showed a printing company in China's Eastern city
Speaker 1: shipped close to one hundred and twenty thousand of these
Speaker 1: bibles to the United States between early February and late March.
Speaker 1: Who could have seen it coming, certainly not everyone in
Speaker 1: the world.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I never ever would have seen him skim and
Speaker 2: coming to light, So this is pretty interesting. The GOP
Speaker 2: was really hoping that Vance could help them win some
Speaker 2: more races in Ohio of the few districts left that
Speaker 2: are Dems. But that looks like it's not quite happening.
Speaker 2: After he made up a bunch of lives about Ohio,
Speaker 2: what are you seeing here?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not even sure that that was what it was. Remember,
Speaker 1: jad Evans has historically run about twenty points behind the
Speaker 1: governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine in twenty twenty two. It's
Speaker 1: not a total shock to see that he is not
Speaker 1: helping any of the down valid candidates in Ohio. Marcy
Speaker 1: Captor has a ten point lead in Ohio, and the
Speaker 1: Republicans in Ohio are not using vans on billboards or
Speaker 1: in any way advertising him. Politico reviewed the ad impact
Speaker 1: data and found that despite a lot of outside spending.
Speaker 1: They are not using images of every man jad Evans
Speaker 1: can't imagine why.
Speaker 2: We have even more towar dates for you. Did you
Speaker 2: know the lincked projects? Rick wils that a past politics
Speaker 2: bolli jug Fast or out on tour to bring you
Speaker 2: a night of laughs for our dark political landscape. Join
Speaker 2: us on August twenty sixth at San Francisco at the
Speaker 2: Swedish American Hall, or in la on August twenty seventh
Speaker 2: at the Regent Theater. Then we're headed to the Midwest
Speaker 2: and we'll be at the Vivarium in Milwaukee on the
Speaker 2: twenty first of September, and on the twenty second we'll
Speaker 2: be in Chicago at City Winery. Then we're going to
Speaker 2: hit the East coast. On September thirtieth, we'll be in
Speaker 2: Boston at Arts at the Armory. On the first of October,
Speaker 2: we'll be Infilliate City Winery, and then DC on the
Speaker 2: second at the Miracle Theater. And today we just announced
Speaker 2: that we'll be in New York on the fourteenth of
Speaker 2: October at City Winery. If you need to laugh as
Speaker 2: we get through this election, and hopefully never hear from
Speaker 2: a guy who lives in a golf club again. We
Speaker 2: got you covered. Join us in our surprise guests that
Speaker 2: help you laugh instead of cry your way through this
Speaker 2: election season and give you the inside analysis of what's
Speaker 2: really going on right now. Buy your tickets now by
Speaker 2: heading to Politics as Unusual dot bio. That's Politics as
Speaker 2: Unusual dot bio.
Speaker 1: Justin Wolfers is the host of the Think Like an
Speaker 1: Economist podcast and a professor at the University of Michigan.
Speaker 1: Welcome back, Too Fast Politics, my friend Justin Wolfers.
Speaker 4: Hey, Molly, I was.
Speaker 1: So excited to have you because oivey, Hey, hey, explain
Speaker 1: to us where we are right now with the United
Speaker 1: States economy go pretty.
Speaker 4: Good, you might even say really good. I did a
Speaker 4: funny thing the other day, Molly. There's an old index
Speaker 4: people used to put together. They called it the misery index.
Speaker 4: It adds up the bad things. It's the sum of
Speaker 4: the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, so two bad
Speaker 4: things they taste even worse together. And I looked at
Speaker 4: that misery index in November of every election year for
Speaker 4: the last fifty years. That misery index right now is
Speaker 4: at the second lowest level that it's been over the
Speaker 4: past fifty years. I'm not saying the economy is perfect,
Speaker 4: But what I'm saying is that we normally approach election
Speaker 4: day with things looking a whole lot worse than this.
Speaker 1: So that's a really good place to start. So let's
Speaker 1: start there. I want you to explain to us where
Speaker 1: we are. This is the soft landing. You have been
Speaker 1: talking about how we were going to have this soft landing.
Speaker 1: You were cautiously optimistic, and then you were optimistic, and
Speaker 1: now you are correct. So discuss.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Look, great deal of credit to the administration, a
Speaker 4: great deal of credit to J. Powell, and a little
Speaker 4: moment for those of us who are true believers that
Speaker 4: sometimes good things happen. Look, there's been really two major
Speaker 4: challenges during the Biden administration. The first was he took
Speaker 4: office during the pandemic and the deepest recession in a century.
Speaker 4: In fact, at its deepest point, perhaps deeper than the
Speaker 4: Great Depression. The economy is bounced back. And not only
Speaker 4: is it bounced back, it has kept moving and in fact,
Speaker 4: the economy today is in a better place than people
Speaker 4: thought it was going to be in twenty nineteen, back
Speaker 4: before they thought they'd be a pen So that was
Speaker 4: the first challenge. We've got unemployment right now at four
Speaker 4: point one percent, that's just a hair above a fifty
Speaker 4: year low. The other great challenge was inflation. Supply change
Speaker 4: became totally messed up. At the price of oil rows
Speaker 4: at different points, all sorts of shocks were hitting the economy.
Speaker 4: COVID was a tough time. It led to a very
Speaker 4: sharp spike in inflation in the United States and every
Speaker 4: other major industrialists country. And it's come down further and
Speaker 4: faster in the United States than any other country. And
Speaker 4: then the real victory lap here is the usual logic
Speaker 4: says the only way to get inflation out of the
Speaker 4: system is to create a recession, and in fact, a
Speaker 4: lot of people were calling for that or predicting it.
Speaker 4: But if you get it just right, you can tap
Speaker 4: on the brakes without an abrupt stop, bring the economy
Speaker 4: back to a sustainable pace, and possibly bring down inflation
Speaker 4: without causing a recession. Very very hard needled a thread.
Speaker 4: But it looks like we've done it. So we're at
Speaker 4: a point now where inflation is back to where it
Speaker 4: was at the start of the Biden administration. At the
Speaker 4: end of the Trump administration two and a half percent
Speaker 4: and unemployments back to where it was, and output has
Speaker 4: continued to grow, and incomes have continued to grow, and
Speaker 4: wages are growing faster than inflation, and inequality has fallen.
Speaker 4: Sometimes good things do happen.
Speaker 1: Yes, sometimes good things do happen. But this was also
Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act reduced inflation.
Speaker 4: Oh my god, you are the greatest troll in human history.
Speaker 4: And I love that about you, Molley.
Speaker 1: So that's all I have.
Speaker 4: Here's my favorite Thanksgiving trick. When you're at Thanksgiving in
Speaker 4: a month's time with that trolley uncle or aunt of
Speaker 4: yours who says Biden caused inflation and it's been a
Speaker 4: terrible problem. You show them a graph of inflation and
Speaker 4: then you say, look, this is where the Inflation Reduction
Speaker 4: Act passed. And basically, as inflation peaked, the Inflation Reduction
Speaker 4: Act passed, and then inflation fell. So if that's all
Speaker 4: you knew about the world, you would say, oh, my goodness,
Speaker 4: we absolutely definitely needed the Inflation Reduction Act to reduce inflation.
Speaker 4: The reality is the Inflation Reduction Act was mostly an
Speaker 4: environmental bill that was rebadged to get Senator Joe Manson
Speaker 4: to vote for it. So if you take the same
Speaker 4: piece of legislation. But you tell Mansion it doesn't save
Speaker 4: the environment, but in fact reduces inflation. Mansion thinks it's
Speaker 4: a terrific idea. So I think the Inflation Reduction Act
Speaker 4: was a wonderful, wonderful piece of legislation. It may have
Speaker 4: had a very very slight effect reducing inflation, but that's
Speaker 4: probably not where most of the effect came from.
Speaker 1: So where did most of the effect come from.
Speaker 4: The seeds of this disinflation were actually right there in
Speaker 4: the causes of inflation. So what happened was during the
Speaker 4: pandemic or the post pandemic period, prices started rising. I
Speaker 4: remember life was chaotic, things were hard to get, shipping
Speaker 4: routes were all massed up. This is what economists call
Speaker 4: a supply shark. And what happened is there's one class
Speaker 4: of economists who were used to the idea that if
Speaker 4: inflation goes up, it must keep going up, or it
Speaker 4: must stay high, and everything's ruined and everything's going to
Speaker 4: be terrible. Another possibility is that a post pandemic readjustment
Speaker 4: is a temporary thing, and if there are some things
Speaker 4: that are a bit messed up, give it time and
Speaker 4: things will get back to normal. And that's essentially what happened,
Speaker 4: which was twenty nineteen was really normal, and twenty twenty
Speaker 4: four the economy is really normal. And what happened in
Speaker 4: between was things got messed up and then they got unmissed.
Speaker 4: When things got missed up, that created inflation. And when
Speaker 4: things were turned back to normal, we got normal rates
Speaker 4: of inflation again.
Speaker 1: So it was really ultimately translatory inflation because of the
Speaker 1: supply chain.
Speaker 4: It was transitory inflation, but the word transitory turned out
Speaker 4: to mean three years rather than three months. And then Moly,
Speaker 4: I hear you looking for a hero in this story,
Speaker 4: and we find this narrative of a little unsatisfying with
Speaker 4: Inflation went up and then it went down. Y' on,
Speaker 4: so let's go looking for a hero. Inflation went up,
Speaker 4: and every right wing economist around the world said the
Speaker 4: Fed needs to create a recession get rid of this.
Speaker 1: Right, But if you.
Speaker 4: Believed that it was really important to emphasize not just
Speaker 4: inflation but keeping people in work, then following the prescription
Speaker 4: of the right wing economists came with a risk you
Speaker 4: might create a recession that you don't really need. And
Speaker 4: so you have to if you really believe in full employment,
Speaker 4: as I do, be willing to take a little bit
Speaker 4: of a risk and say, hey, let's just see how
Speaker 4: this goes for a little while. Inflationhoud might get worse,
Speaker 4: but gee, I want to give this economy a chance
Speaker 4: to heal without me inflicting pain on other people. And
Speaker 4: that is the narrative that yields a hero in this story.
Speaker 4: This says the administration's economic policy was one that was
Speaker 4: fundamentally tied to keeping people in work and respecting the
Speaker 4: dignity of work and the importance of work to their lives.
Speaker 4: And they weren't willing to sacrifice that in order to
Speaker 4: please a right wing economist's talking point. And that took courage,
Speaker 4: and it was a bet. But it's a bet that's
Speaker 4: paying off in million into people's lives today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, recession has so many victims, right, it would be
Speaker 1: terrible for many many Americans.
Speaker 4: Well, you seem to be struggling with the idea that
Speaker 4: recessions are bad. They're awful.
Speaker 1: No, I'm not, but I'm trying to quantify. It's bad
Speaker 1: for workers, but it's also it has downstream effects being
Speaker 1: like bad for people, being miserable, and.
Speaker 4: It's a real kitchen table problem. Right, you can't find work,
Speaker 4: you lose your sense of self. Ours as a society,
Speaker 4: for better or worse, to organize such that we get
Speaker 4: our sense of worth from work. You wake up in
Speaker 4: the morning, you light to your wife and you tell
Speaker 4: her that you're going to go to work because you're
Speaker 4: afraid to tell her that you don't have a job.
Speaker 4: You tell the kids they can't go on the school
Speaker 4: excursion because you don't have cash. There's that awful feeling
Speaker 4: in the pit of your stomach, even if you do
Speaker 4: have work. Layouts are coming next week. Your listeners have
Speaker 4: lived through recessions, and they've lived through those moments, and
Speaker 4: they know how freaking awful they are. And what I
Speaker 4: want is to do right now is for every one
Speaker 4: of your listeners who's not feeling that in the pit
Speaker 4: of the stomach to recognize the absence of that fear
Speaker 4: right now. And that's the payoff of good economics.
Speaker 1: That was the answer I was looking for. Thank you.
Speaker 1: I always believe that it's really important to look at
Speaker 1: the economy in a holistic way. Right, it's not the
Speaker 1: stock market, it's many aspects of our lives that need
Speaker 1: to be sort of looked at as a pesties. I'm
Speaker 1: hoping you could talk to us about right now, at
Speaker 1: this moment, there is Republicans, and again, I think this
Speaker 1: is sort of to be expected with the Republican war
Speaker 1: on the federal government. When you read Project twenty twenty five,
Speaker 1: what you see is that the Republicans are literally at
Speaker 1: war with the federal government. They want it gone, they
Speaker 1: want it not to exist, they want it to be
Speaker 1: an arm of Republican presidencies. You know, they really want
Speaker 1: to shrink it and drown in about them.
Speaker 4: Are you still trying to decide which side to vote for?
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm on the fence. I don't know her emails.
Speaker 1: Just kidding, not in a funny way at all. But
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if you could talk about Marco Rubio. Had
Speaker 1: you know where I'm going here, because the last time
Speaker 1: you were on this podcast, we talked about the non
Speaker 1: partisan Bureau of Farm and Labor Statistics.
Speaker 4: Go, I'm going to lead with fuck Marco Rubios. So
Speaker 4: I'm a nerd, I'm a wonk. I spent my hours
Speaker 4: my life staring at numbers and economic models and trying
Speaker 4: to make sense of it all in the days, I'm
Speaker 4: not doing that. I talked to room fulls of bright
Speaker 4: young undergraduates, helping them understand the world, because I fundamentally
Speaker 4: believe that what we need to do is look at facts,
Speaker 4: design better policies. And I don't care if you're from
Speaker 4: the left of the right. There's always a form of
Speaker 4: better and there's a thing called truth. And for twenty years,
Speaker 4: Marco Rubio marketed himself as being a bright, young wonk.
Speaker 4: He was going to to be the ideas man of
Speaker 4: the Republican Party. He had ideas. They weren't mine, they
Speaker 4: were his. They needed some work. But if you wanted
Speaker 4: to sort of be a center right politician, he was
Speaker 4: kind of trying to do that. Last week, the employment
Speaker 4: numbers came out and Marco Rubio gave up his last
Speaker 4: shred of dignity, just threw it away. He said, these
Speaker 4: numbers are fake. Yeah, everyone who knows anything about economics
Speaker 4: knows the numbers are not fake. I have dozens of
Speaker 4: friends inside the Bureau of Labor Statistics Molly. The day
Speaker 4: they fake it, every one of those friends will resign.
Speaker 4: And the day before they fake it, they'll call me
Speaker 4: to tell me they're thinking about resigning, and I will
Speaker 4: call you, and I will call your listeners and I
Speaker 4: will tell them that the numbers are fake. But what
Speaker 4: they have is very very high quality processes involving literally
Speaker 4: hundreds of people in order to compile these numbers, the
Speaker 4: numbers that come from multiple surveys, and you can cross
Speaker 4: check them against private sector organizations that are doing similar
Speaker 4: things as well. During the Trump administration. The numbers were
Speaker 4: never fake. They were simply good. They were magnificent, they
Speaker 4: were great, they were lovely signs of the best economy ever.
Speaker 4: That's what he kept saying. And then all of a
Speaker 4: sudden in October of twenty twenty four, for the first
Speaker 4: time in his career, Marco Rubio has concerns and he
Speaker 4: doesn't have concerns about the bier Is. You can raise concerns,
Speaker 4: you can describe them, you can say ways in which
Speaker 4: they're fake, how they're fake, what they're not capturing. He
Speaker 4: just says they're fake. And from that day onward, Marco
Speaker 4: Rubio is dead to me as any kind of policy
Speaker 4: wont He's thrown his hat in with the bullshitters and
Speaker 4: the deniers, and there's no coming back from that.
Speaker 1: I just want to go one step further. The reason
Speaker 1: why he says they're fake is not is based on
Speaker 1: the idea that sometimes the Bureau has to revise numbers.
Speaker 1: Explain to us just for a second, what the numbers
Speaker 1: revision process looks like.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so now I'm going to boil your listeners to tears.
Speaker 4: But it's fantastic that we can do that like that.
Speaker 4: The first thing I want your listeners to know is
Speaker 4: the process by which official economics to tear are revised.
Speaker 4: It follows the same calendar, the same process, the same
Speaker 4: everything every year. We've seen this movie before. I've seen
Speaker 4: it fifty one times during my fifty one year life.
Speaker 4: So what happens. First of all, when we want to
Speaker 4: know how many people firms employ, we ask firms how
Speaker 4: many they employ. Some firms don't send their forms in
Speaker 4: on time, and so what we have to do is
Speaker 4: we wait those folks who eventually send their forms, and
Speaker 4: we revise the numbers to include their numbers, to include
Speaker 4: their forms telling us how many people were employed. That's
Speaker 4: the first thing. The second thing is we always adjust
Speaker 4: our numbers for what are called seasonal effects. For instance,
Speaker 4: a lot of people go shopping in December. Now those
Speaker 4: seasonal effects actually change through time. To give you an example,
Speaker 4: we just had my family's favorite holiday, Prime Day, and
Speaker 4: Prime Day didn't used to be a thing, and so
Speaker 4: that means retail sales in October are now stronger than
Speaker 4: they used to be in say, the year two thousand
Speaker 4: and so we have to adjust the seasonal factors to
Speaker 4: take account of changing seasonal patterns. That also causes revisions.
Speaker 4: And the other thing is, if you want to know
Speaker 4: how many people employed, we have to know how many
Speaker 4: people are there in the United States, and we only
Speaker 4: do that well every ten years, and then we updated
Speaker 4: every year, and that sometimes causes what are called benchmark
Speaker 4: revisions how many people are there or how many firms
Speaker 4: are there. None of the revisions over the past few
Speaker 4: weeks and months have been unusual in any historical sense whatsoever.
Speaker 4: Half of them go one way, half of them go
Speaker 4: the other way. There's really just absolutely nothing there. Hey, Molly,
Speaker 4: what do I want you to do is now ask
Speaker 4: me why is it dangerous to start calling government statistics fake?
Speaker 1: Yes, what a good question, interviewe. Why is it dangerous?
Speaker 4: Okay, let's say you're a senator or governor in Florida.
Speaker 4: One day you want to say, the government just published
Speaker 4: the unemployment rate, but it's fake. You should ignore it.
Speaker 4: And the very next day you want to say that
Speaker 4: the government weather bureau believes there's a hurricane coming straight
Speaker 4: for you, and holy shit, you better run. Once you
Speaker 4: cast down on the serious nerds who are giving us
Speaker 4: information so we can live bigger and better lives, it
Speaker 4: just doesn't stop. And so I don't know if you've
Speaker 4: got a grandmother or a friend or a neighbor who's
Speaker 4: telling you that you know, these hurricanes aren't really happening,
Speaker 4: or democrats control the weather, but it's all the same disease,
Speaker 4: and it's a disease that Marco Rubio is feeding, which
Speaker 4: is when you call some stuff fake, you raise suspicion
Speaker 4: about everything, and that means that people can't take information
Speaker 4: seriously and it leads real people to make bad decisions
Speaker 4: in their lives.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I have an aunt who's in the path
Speaker 1: of the hurricane right now, and I pray that she's okay.
Speaker 1: But I think that's a really good point. You can't
Speaker 1: trust the federal government for some things and not for
Speaker 1: other things. That is not a good message, and that's
Speaker 1: what Republicans are doing right now.
Speaker 4: It's a very very dangerous thing. And there are people,
Speaker 4: and I hope it's not your aunt, who are leaving
Speaker 4: themselves in harm's way right now because they believe that
Speaker 4: you can't trust what the government's telling you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's really scary. So you can't
Speaker 1: to me. I'll probably have you back before the election,
Speaker 1: but it is in twenty seven days. So if Vice
Speaker 1: President Harris, who has in some ways the benefit of
Speaker 1: incumbency and in some ways not, is this a good
Speaker 1: economy to be an incumbinant.
Speaker 4: I believe it is. What's less clear is how much
Speaker 4: that message is breaking through. And so for your listeners,
Speaker 4: who I have a guess lean liberal, you probably want
Speaker 4: to make sure you have some good talking points to
Speaker 4: take to Thanksgiving because nerds like me and charismatic podcast
Speaker 4: hosts like you, Molly only get so far. The folks
Speaker 4: who voters are going to believe their nephews and nieces,
Speaker 4: brothers and sisters and the folks around the Thanksgivting table.
Speaker 4: And so my plea to your listeners is learn the
Speaker 4: facts that unemployment's near a fifty year low, that inflation
Speaker 4: has happened, and is behind us. That inflation happened to
Speaker 4: at least as large as a degree in every other
Speaker 4: industrialized country, but the US has recovered even faster, that
Speaker 4: inequality has fallen, that as much as inflation was painful,
Speaker 4: wages have risen ahead of inflation. So the reality is
Speaker 4: for most American workers, you can in fact afford more
Speaker 4: today than you could in twenty nineteen. And also that
Speaker 4: the cavalcade of lies coming from Trump's so called policy
Speaker 4: process is just whatever he happens to think about at
Speaker 4: any given moment. And if you add it all up,
Speaker 4: it's clear that he doesn't actually mean any of it
Speaker 4: because it would bankrupt the federal government.
Speaker 1: Yes it does, Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Speaker 4: Justin and a great pleasure, and let's enjoy the next
Speaker 4: few weeks. And let me say to all of us,
Speaker 4: let's look after ourselves out there. Okay.
Speaker 1: Are you concerned about Project twenty twenty five and how
Speaker 1: awful Trump's second term could be? Well, so are we,
Speaker 1: which is why we teamed up with iHeart to make
Speaker 1: a limited series with the experts on what a disaster
Speaker 1: Project twenty twenty five would be for America's future. Right now,
Speaker 1: we have just really at least the final episode of
Speaker 1: this five episode series. They're all available by looking up
Speaker 1: Molly Jong Fast Project twenty twenty five on YouTube. And
Speaker 1: if you are more of a podcast person and not
Speaker 1: say a YouTuber, you can hit play and put your
Speaker 1: phone in the lock screen and it will play back
Speaker 1: just like a podcast. All five episodes are online now.
Speaker 1: We need to educate Americans on what Trump's second term
Speaker 1: would or could do to this country, So please watch
Speaker 1: it and spread the word. Gary Peters is the junior
Speaker 1: Senator from Michigan and the chairperson for the DSCC. Welcome
Speaker 1: back to Fast Politics, Senator Gary Peters.
Speaker 5: Well, it's great to be with you.
Speaker 1: Let's dive in to the Senate map because you are
Speaker 1: both the senator from the great state of Michigan, so
Speaker 1: we can talk about Michigan. But also you are the
Speaker 1: head honcho when it comes to the incredibly tight and
Speaker 1: tough Senate map for Democrats.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right. It's a tough map, but I think
Speaker 5: where we thought we would be right now, and basically
Speaker 5: we're kind of following the same strategy that we use
Speaker 5: last cycle. As you recall, I ran the d SEC
Speaker 5: last cycle and we had a tough map, and we
Speaker 5: had a history against us, but we were able to
Speaker 5: hold the majority and expand it and I'm expecting to
Speaker 5: do that again.
Speaker 1: Democrats had a tough map, but it actually did really well.
Speaker 1: This map is tough, it's complicated. Let's start with Senator
Speaker 1: Tester seat in Montana.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Montana is a tough place.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 5: Montana is a state that will likely vote for Donald
Speaker 5: Trump by roughly twenty points or more. That's not an
Speaker 5: easy place for a Democrat. The good news is that
Speaker 5: John Tester knows how to win in Montana. He's had
Speaker 5: tough races before, he has it again. He knows how
Speaker 5: to win, and over the years he's been able to
Speaker 5: build relationships with people in Montana. Although Montana is a
Speaker 5: huge state geographically, it's actually fairly small population wise. It's
Speaker 5: a little more than a congressional district, so basically you
Speaker 5: get to know a lot of folks and not a
Speaker 5: whole lot of votes makes the difference there.
Speaker 1: I think the thing that makes this Senate map and
Speaker 1: this election cycle so crazy making is that the polls
Speaker 1: are not necessarily consistent. So right now we're seeing Harrison
Speaker 1: a pretty good trajectory of pulling better and better. I
Speaker 1: have seen not so many poles out of Montana, but
Speaker 1: I have also seen polls that have she up. But
Speaker 1: then I've seen polls that have tests her up in fact.
Speaker 1: And I mean, is this a state where there's just
Speaker 1: not a ton of polling?
Speaker 5: Well, there's actually there's been a lot of polling, but
Speaker 5: it is inconsistent to your point. You know, that bounces
Speaker 5: around a lot, and it's not unexpected because it's just
Speaker 5: a really difficult place to poll. It's a rural area
Speaker 5: and right now, actually there's a lot of folks that
Speaker 5: are that are pulling there. At least they're calling folks
Speaker 5: because it is such a hotly contested place and because
Speaker 5: there isn't a lot of people that they're getting a
Speaker 5: lot of calls back to you. You know, addecdonally, you talk
Speaker 5: to people in Montana, they're saying, like a poster's calling
Speaker 5: me all the time, and they're saying, please don't call
Speaker 5: me anymore, and they're using more colorful language than I
Speaker 5: just did.
Speaker 1: You had a sort of similar situation with your race,
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe not quite the same, but you had
Speaker 1: a lot of polling stuff like that. Do you think
Speaker 1: that this is just the state of polling, and also
Speaker 1: were there things that you think helped you towards the end?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean pulling it's a science, but there's also
Speaker 5: a lot of art involved in it. And the thing
Speaker 5: about polling is that you have to try to figure
Speaker 5: out exactly who's going to come out to vote, and
Speaker 5: so you have to have the right kind of sampling
Speaker 5: of demographics and gender, you know, all those kinds of
Speaker 5: issues and people who lean Republican or Democrat. So there's
Speaker 5: a lot of art and if the poster gets that wrong,
Speaker 5: their numbers are going to be off. And so you
Speaker 5: do see a lot of polls that have different numbers,
Speaker 5: and part of it's probably because their model is a
Speaker 5: little different to when they're doing that. So the question
Speaker 5: is is it systematic error? And you try to minimize that,
Speaker 5: and why you see these polling aggregators, you know, these
Speaker 5: services that will take a look at ten polls and
Speaker 5: then they average the numbers and they think, well, maybe
Speaker 5: then we're you know, we're smoothing out some of the
Speaker 5: errors there. But even that is not always accurate. The
Speaker 5: only poll that's going to matter is on election day,
Speaker 5: and other than that, everything else you get it. I
Speaker 5: always take it with a grain of salt, especially in
Speaker 5: a small state like Montana, where a lot of people
Speaker 5: don't want to answer poles for a variety of reasons,
Speaker 5: and so you often have to ask your question, who
Speaker 5: is actually spending time with a polster telling them what
Speaker 5: they think? And who is not? And who are you
Speaker 5: missing because of a group of people who do not
Speaker 5: want to talk to a bolster.
Speaker 1: So certain races have been like boons for Democrats and
Speaker 1: could not have worked out better. I'm thinking of Kirsten's
Speaker 1: Cinema not running for re election, Ruben Diego getting in
Speaker 1: there early, raising a boatload of money, continues to pull
Speaker 1: about ten points ahead of the woman who considers herself
Speaker 1: to be the rightful governor of the state. Carrie, Like
Speaker 1: that turned out trump Ism doesn't scale there. But like,
Speaker 1: talk to me about your own state of Michigan. Because
Speaker 1: you have the Debby's Dabina has retired, is not running
Speaker 1: for reelection, You've got a lease lock in there. The
Speaker 1: polling seems to be good, but again, Michigan has a
Speaker 1: number of factors apply.
Speaker 5: Yeah, in Michigan is a tough state. We are a
Speaker 5: battleground state. So by definition. We're a really close state,
Speaker 5: so the numbers are going to be close as which
Speaker 5: way we would have expected. You know, folks looked at
Speaker 5: the election last cycle. We didn't have a Senate race,
Speaker 5: but all of our Democrats did well. But I remind
Speaker 5: folks we had Proposition three, which enshrined abortion rights into
Speaker 5: the state constitution. It was by far the top vote getter.
Speaker 5: It got more votes than anybody on the ballot, and
Speaker 5: people who showed up tended to be folks who lean Democratic,
Speaker 5: and we're voting for Democratic candidates. But this year we
Speaker 5: don't have that. We don't have a referendum like that,
Speaker 5: and so we now revert to the me which means
Speaker 5: Michigan is a close state. When I ran in twenty
Speaker 5: with Joe Biden on the ticket, I won by roughly
Speaker 5: two points and he run one by roughly two and
Speaker 5: a half points, So you know, it's a close race.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you think Democrats should be doing to
Speaker 1: win Michigan.
Speaker 5: We have to make sure that we are running really
Speaker 5: strong ground campaign and that's what we're doing. It's about
Speaker 5: getting out talking to voters and then identifying those voters
Speaker 5: who are with us, and then we have to make
Speaker 5: sure that they actually vote. It's not enough just to
Speaker 5: stay on a poll. I'm going to support so and so.
Speaker 5: Are they actually getting a ballot and voting. Right now,
Speaker 5: it's election day in Michigan, and it has been for
Speaker 5: a few days because we have no reason absentee and
Speaker 5: so people can request an absentee ballot or go to
Speaker 5: the clerk and get an absentee ballot and they can
Speaker 5: vote today if they'd like. And so we treat every
Speaker 5: day now until November as election day and identifying our
Speaker 5: voters and then keeping track of them to see when
Speaker 5: they actually turn in their ballot, and if they haven't,
Speaker 5: remind them gently at first, and then sometimes keep calling
Speaker 5: them if you need to. And that make sure that
Speaker 5: you can get the votes in because in a closer election,
Speaker 5: the better ground operation can truly be a decisive factor.
Speaker 1: And Harris has a bunch of offices in Michigan, right,
Speaker 1: doesn't she have tons and tons of field offices.
Speaker 5: Yeah, we do. We have a very robust field operation
Speaker 5: here in Michigan. People are door knocking and I'll tell
Speaker 5: you the thing that is very exciting, and it's not
Speaker 5: just in Michigan. I can say this confidently from all
Speaker 5: the states that I'm working on across the country that
Speaker 5: have Senate races, is that voter enthusiasm for Kamala Harris
Speaker 5: is very high. People are very excited about her campaign.
Speaker 5: So the number of volunteers that we're getting is very large,
Speaker 5: and it's spiked. It's interesting after Joe Biden decided that
Speaker 5: he did not want to run and pass the torch
Speaker 5: to Kamala Harris within a week as an example, the
Speaker 5: number of volunteers, and these are volunteers we've been We
Speaker 5: were recruiting for roughly a year and a half up
Speaker 5: to the time that Joe Biden dropped out, but in
Speaker 5: that next week the number doubled statewide. I mean, it
Speaker 5: was just a huge rush of people and that has continued.
Speaker 5: So we have very robust canvassing. People are excited and
Speaker 5: what's most exciting to me, there are a lot of
Speaker 5: young people. And when I've done canvas kickoffs and I
Speaker 5: talked to young folks, probably over half of them say
Speaker 5: this is the first campaign they've ever worked on, which
Speaker 5: is really exciting.
Speaker 1: Following up with that, what are the voter registration numbers?
Speaker 5: The total registration. I don't have the percentage right, we
Speaker 5: have a pretty high number we have. I think already
Speaker 5: the last number I saw is over two million absentee
Speaker 5: ballots have been requested. We'll probably have five and a
Speaker 5: half million folks vote here in Michigan, somewhere in that range,
Speaker 5: and so already a pretty big number of people have
Speaker 5: requested absentee ballots.
Speaker 1: In my mind, it strikes me that the metrics you know,
Speaker 1: are positive for her, that are in some ways they
Speaker 1: don't necessarily mean you win an election, but they certainly
Speaker 1: are important. Data points are first time volunteers, first time donors,
Speaker 1: voter registration. Right, Aren't those all numbers that are important?
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's no question. Yeah, all of that are our
Speaker 5: indicators for you, and those are good. But I'll say
Speaker 5: there's enthusiasm on the Republican side too, So we definitely
Speaker 5: know that we have to work right to the end.
Speaker 5: We got to keep raising money. I mean, we're seeing
Speaker 5: massive amount of money coming in into the from Republicans
Speaker 5: into their candidates right now. You know, Tammy Balden had
Speaker 5: this big influx. Bob Casey has a billionaire that put
Speaker 5: thirty million against him. Crypto folks put forty million against
Speaker 5: Sharon Brown in Ohio. So as this money is coming in,
Speaker 5: that is a challenge and we're working to try to
Speaker 5: match it as much as we can.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Dan Osborne. Not a Democrat, he's an independent.
Speaker 1: There's some pretty incredible polland coming out of Nebraska for
Speaker 1: any number of reasons, perhaps also because Republicans tried to
Speaker 1: take away that electoral vote from Omaha. Talk to me
Speaker 1: about are you helping him out? What is that like?
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, you know, I'm the chair of the Democratic
Speaker 5: Campaign Committee and so we support democrats. He is not
Speaker 5: a Democrat, so I'm not engaged in that race in
Speaker 5: any way. Oh.
Speaker 1: Interesting, So talk to me about the other races that
Speaker 1: are right now sort of what you're focused on.
Speaker 5: Yeah, we talked about Montana, which is without question the
Speaker 5: toughest race for us, But then right behind that is Ohio.
Speaker 5: That's Shared Brown, who is the only statewide Democrat in Ohio,
Speaker 5: and Ohio used to be a battleground state has now
Speaker 5: really drifted more to a Republican state. And Trump won
Speaker 5: there by eight or nine points and will likely do
Speaker 5: the same there. But Sharon Brown knows how to win.
Speaker 5: He's consistently one because he's a very authentic individual who
Speaker 5: cares deeply about working people and unions in his state,
Speaker 5: and people have been supportive of them over many years,
Speaker 5: and I'm confident he can win. But that's another state
Speaker 5: that is really tight. When you have the top of
Speaker 5: the ticket winning by eight or nine points, that's a
Speaker 5: lot of gravity for a Senate candidate. But Sharon Brown
Speaker 5: has done it in the past, and currently right now
Speaker 5: in Napolling, he's up not a lot. It's a tight race,
Speaker 5: and so we know we're going to have to run hard.
Speaker 5: He's running against a flawed candidate. And if you probably
Speaker 5: asked me if there's one theme that we can say,
Speaker 5: all of our Republican opponents are kind of a If
Speaker 5: you're going to put him on a spectrum, it would
Speaker 5: start at flawed candidate and then move to very flawed candidate.
Speaker 5: And you mentioned one in Arizona. Carry Lake pushes the
Speaker 5: envelope on the very flawed category as we move on
Speaker 5: that continuum. But certainly the Republican in Ohio the same thing.
Speaker 5: Very flawed. He's really inflated his biography, but he's also
Speaker 5: was a car dealer and refused to pay overtime to
Speaker 5: his employees. They had to sue him to try to
Speaker 5: get the pay that they were deserved and earned. He
Speaker 5: then destroyed documents. He had a fine from the court.
Speaker 5: Not a guy that you'd want in the Senate, someone
Speaker 5: who you think would be fighting for everyday people when
Speaker 5: he tried to cheat amount of money that they earned
Speaker 5: working in his place. And that's just one negative. We
Speaker 5: could go on about negatives versus Shared Brown, who is
Speaker 5: just a man of incredible integrity and character and has
Speaker 5: a truck record of fighting for the people of Ohio.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about Wisconsin Senate race. Tammy Baldwin has
Speaker 1: been up pretty much continuously. Cook political has moved it
Speaker 1: from a lean down to a toss up. What do
Speaker 1: you think the thinking there is.
Speaker 5: Wisconsin is also a tough place. It is also a
Speaker 5: battleground state like Michigan, so we always know that it's
Speaker 5: going to be a close race. And she's running against
Speaker 5: a guy who's got a lot of money. He's basically
Speaker 5: a southern California banker running now in Wisconsin, and he's
Speaker 5: putting a lot of his own money into the race.
Speaker 5: The Republican Committee is putting a lot of money in there.
Speaker 5: But Tammy, similar to the other candidates I've talked about.
Speaker 5: She is a true, authentic person who cares deeply about
Speaker 5: the people of Wisconsin. But you know, she's running against
Speaker 5: a lot of cash coming in. But her opponent is
Speaker 5: also deeply flawed. There's going to be a air deeply flawed.
Speaker 5: And some of the things he said are crazy. I mean,
Speaker 5: one of them was that he didn't think people in
Speaker 5: nursing homes should be able to vote because they're not
Speaker 5: going to be living very long. I mean, it is
Speaker 5: pretty outrageous. That offends so many people.
Speaker 1: There's a Senate candidate, Larry Hogan. He's running against Angela
Speaker 1: also Brooks. He's really, i want to say, a wolf
Speaker 1: in sheep's clothing, right. He seems like a more moderate Republican,
Speaker 1: but he in fact has been asked to run for
Speaker 1: Senate by Mitch McConnell. What are you seeing in that race.
Speaker 5: I think your characterization is accurate. And he's a Republican
Speaker 5: and so if he were to win, he would put
Speaker 5: the Republicans in the majority. Win Kamala Harris, who wins
Speaker 5: as president, as you know as well as anyone, she
Speaker 5: needs a Democratic majority in the Senate or she can't
Speaker 5: accomplish the things that we want her to accomplish. Can't
Speaker 5: even get members of her cabinet confirmed without Republicans consenting
Speaker 5: to it, and they passed. The history is they make
Speaker 5: that extremely difficult. So basically Hogan would give the majority
Speaker 5: to the Republicans, which would make it difficult for Kamala
Speaker 5: Harris to do the work that she needs to do
Speaker 5: and wants to do and will do with the distinction,
Speaker 5: and we just have to remind people of Maryland. I mean,
Speaker 5: Kamala will win Maryland probably by twenty points or more
Speaker 5: as well, but because people remember Hogan as a governor there,
Speaker 5: he does have support. But once you tell people and
Speaker 5: remind them that he is a Republican and that he
Speaker 5: will give control to the Republicans, people and Maryland go
Speaker 5: oh well, no, I've got to make sure Kamala has
Speaker 5: a team member. This is a team sport, and then
Speaker 5: we'll vote for Angela. So the challenge is that everybody
Speaker 5: knows Hogan. He was a governor for a while, so
Speaker 5: his name idea is very high. Angela a very gifted,
Speaker 5: talented person, but she just not as well known. So
Speaker 5: we have to make sure she has the resources for
Speaker 5: people to get to know her, and when they do
Speaker 5: get to know her, she'll win. But that does require resources.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll say, Debbie Macarsle Powell in Florida, I want
Speaker 1: you to do two seconds on both her and so
Speaker 1: Colin Allread in Texas. These are states that were not
Speaker 1: on the map but are now sort of being added
Speaker 1: to the map. Just give me the lay of the
Speaker 1: land here.
Speaker 5: In addition to defense, and we're certainly playing defense with
Speaker 5: a lot of our incumbents. And my number one job
Speaker 5: is to make sure all of the incumbents come back.
Speaker 5: I will tell you they remind me of that every week.
Speaker 5: That's my job. But I also know we have an
Speaker 5: opportunity to go on the offense. And both Florida and
Speaker 5: Texas are real the d SC we are investing money
Speaker 5: in both states and will encourage folks who might be
Speaker 5: listening to do that. So, Debbie Mucersel Powell in Florida
Speaker 5: is a gifted person. She's a former congresswoman from the
Speaker 5: Miami area, and she's running against an incumbent, Rick Scott.
Speaker 5: Rick Scott has been a governor and now senator. But
Speaker 5: the thing to remember about him is that even when
Speaker 5: there has been a hailwin behind him with a strong
Speaker 5: Republican year. He's never won by more than just a
Speaker 5: hair over one point, so just one percentage point, very close.
Speaker 5: He's not that popular. And in Florida we have an
Speaker 5: abortion referendum. I mentioned earlier the Michigan referendum and how
Speaker 5: powerful that was, the same thing happening now in Florida.
Speaker 5: And Florida has passed a draconian abortion lawed a six
Speaker 5: week ban and no exceptions for rape and incest. And
Speaker 5: Rick Scott has doubled down. He says he's voting against
Speaker 5: the referendum and supports it. But you have to remember
Speaker 5: that right now, based on public polling, sixty eight percent
Speaker 5: of the people in Florida support the referendum. And my
Speaker 5: experience is if you're on the wrong side of sixty
Speaker 5: eight percent of the people, that's not great.
Speaker 1: Yes, it's not great. Many people are saying, thank you
Speaker 1: so much, Senator Peters.
Speaker 5: Thank you. It's good to be with.
Speaker 2: You a moment.
Speaker 1: Thick Jesse Cannon.
Speaker 2: Malei jung Fast. I'm going to rewind us back to
Speaker 2: when Trump lost the election back in twenty two, and
Speaker 2: there is the whole stop the steel effort, and one
Speaker 2: of the people involved with it was Patrick Burn, who
Speaker 2: is the former CEO of overstock dot Com. What are
Speaker 2: you seeing here?
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is like you had another situation where a
Speaker 1: Trump supporter turns out to be like a low key
Speaker 1: scammer slash total lunatic. This was a guy who was
Speaker 1: supposed to give a deposition in a case brought against
Speaker 1: him by Hunter Biden. He was a Stop the Steel
Speaker 1: guy and he now lives in Dubai because he says
Speaker 1: a Dea agent. Here's how you know that this guy's
Speaker 1: doing great. He says a Dea agent told him that
Speaker 1: the government of Venezuela has put a twenty five million
Speaker 1: dollar bounty on his head. You think the government of
Speaker 1: Venezuela has put a twenty five million dollar bounty on
Speaker 1: his head? I think that someone is not doing great,
Speaker 1: and that is our moment of fuckery. That's it for
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