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Speaker 1: Wonder.

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Speaker 2: Guys, how are you welcome into a Saturday morning episode

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Speaker 2: of the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perolt.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 2: at Sports Talk Matt, and yes, I am back after

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Speaker 2: the wedding. I apologize for the voice as what you

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Speaker 2: can expect. It was a late night last night. My

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Speaker 2: sister is married.

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Speaker 1: It was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 2: We're having a little going away party for their honeymoon

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Speaker 2: here at my girlfriend's house in New Hampshire, so we're

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Speaker 2: gonna have some fun today. But I wanted to get

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Speaker 2: this out as quickly as possible. I apologize for the delay.

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Speaker 2: There was just no way I could get it done

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Speaker 2: last night. Got in very late, had very few hours

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Speaker 2: of sleep, and I have a lot of work to

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Speaker 2: do today to.

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Speaker 1: Get ready for this party that everyone's coming over for.

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Speaker 2: So yesterday losing day barely one in one the Guardian's

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Speaker 2: Royals game got rained out. Rangers Braves went over more

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Speaker 2: on that here in just one second. That was sort

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Speaker 2: of a shocking back end of that game. Red Sox

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Speaker 2: Dodgers woefully under ten. That was the play of the day.

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Speaker 2: So another bet that cashed for us for the play

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Speaker 2: of the day.

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Speaker 1: Excuse me.

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Speaker 2: So that was good to get that to cash one

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Speaker 2: one down one point eight or point one eight unit.

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Speaker 1: So just the juice.

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Speaker 2: So we move into a Saturday where we are rolling

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Speaker 2: still with a winning week and a winning month, and

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Speaker 2: I'll do all the full accounting when I have a

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Speaker 2: chance to breathe after this weekend. I'll give you the

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Speaker 2: full rundown as to what we've done in July and

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Speaker 2: what's happening for the week and everything else.

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Speaker 1: So I apologize for being kind.

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Speaker 2: Of laxed on that, but it's been it's been a

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Speaker 2: week as you could imagine, a lot of things going on.

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Speaker 2: But before we get into the picks for today, and

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Speaker 2: I do have two player props that won't be on

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Speaker 2: the app, that'll be on the podcast. Okay, I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to make you go search for it on the

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Speaker 2: app for today because not enough time between the podcast

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Speaker 2: dropping and the game's beginning. So I'm going to give

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Speaker 2: it to you here on the app. So two plays

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Speaker 2: and two props on the law on the video or

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Speaker 2: audio two of the Daily Juice, not to go search

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Speaker 2: for it. But let's remind you of our friends at Novig.

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Speaker 2: slash juice bettingpros dot com slash juice and use the

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Speaker 2: code daily juice to get up to a fifty percent

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Speaker 2: discount on your first coin purchase. That goes up to

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Speaker 2: twenty five dollars. All right, let's start here with the

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Speaker 2: Red Sox. I know you're gonna say, Matt, this is

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Speaker 2: someone of a homer play. The Red Sox are reeling.

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Speaker 2: They've won two games since the All Star break, the

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Speaker 2: loss of the Dodgers last night five to two on

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Speaker 2: his home run streak ended yesterday at five games, but

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Speaker 2: the Dodgers still pulled away.

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Speaker 1: Late.

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Speaker 2: Red Sox were up or down three to two. It

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Speaker 2: was three nothing the Dodgers Red Sox has made it

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Speaker 2: three to two in the third inning and then could

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Speaker 2: not get anything else off the bullpen for the Dodgers.

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Speaker 2: Dodgers threw four different arms out of that bullpen last night,

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Speaker 2: So a little bit of a taxing game for the

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Speaker 2: Dodgers as the Red Sox get to throw Garrett Crochet

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Speaker 2: today up against a left hander in Clayton Kershaw. We've

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Speaker 2: been betting against Clayton Kershaw. Okay, we and you guys

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Speaker 2: know how I feel about Clayton Kershaw. On the road,

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Speaker 2: Kershaw has been much better one point eight eight e

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Speaker 2: RA two to one record, a two thirty three opposing

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Speaker 2: batting average, just five earned runs and twenty four innings

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Speaker 2: worth of work. In his start on the road before

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Speaker 2: the All Star break, though, against Milwaukee, faced off against

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Speaker 2: another really good pitcher and he lost the game three

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Speaker 2: to one, six innings, two earned runs, not his faults.

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Speaker 2: Timing for that against the Rockies a three to one win,

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Speaker 2: six innings, one earn run it was one home run,

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Speaker 2: and then against the Cardinals five innings, one earned run

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Speaker 2: as well, So I don't mind a first five under

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Speaker 2: here with the Red Sox in very much need of

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Speaker 2: a win for Garrett Crochet and themselves. Frankly, the Red

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Speaker 2: Sox hit lefties. We've talked about this. They have the

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Speaker 2: number one batting average against lefties. They've driven in the

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Speaker 2: most runs this year against lefties. And it's Fenway Park,

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Speaker 2: a place where lefties sometimes come in to die. Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's an offensive day for Boston kind of. They get

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Speaker 2: three runs today, I think they win the game. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I don't mind the under. Okay, three to two, under seven,

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Speaker 2: I don't mind it at all. Garrett Crochet is the

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Speaker 2: stopper of the Red Sox need The team has won

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Speaker 2: four consecutive games that he has started six to one,

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Speaker 2: won nothing, six to four, and thirteen to six.

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Speaker 1: The loss to the.

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Speaker 2: Angels was on the road, and that snapped another four

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Speaker 2: game winning streak. Four the Red Sox three to one,

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Speaker 2: two to one, ten seven, and three to one.

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Speaker 1: So I don't mind the under. Okay, I really don't

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Speaker 1: mind the underplay.

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Speaker 2: But because the bullpen arms for the Dodgers got used

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Speaker 2: up a little bit last night, I'm a little bit

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Speaker 2: hesitant to say this game is going to go under today,

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Speaker 2: given that the Red Sox offense has been pretty quiet

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Speaker 2: over the last couple of day games since the All

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Speaker 2: Star break, and then we're talking about an eight and

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Speaker 2: a half where Okay, the Red Sox win the game

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Speaker 2: six to three and we lose, so that's possible. It

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Speaker 2: was five to two last night, Red Sox bouncing back

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Speaker 2: and winning six to three. So if this was nine

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Speaker 2: or nine and a half, I probably said take a

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Speaker 2: shot at it. It was nine, take a shot at

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Speaker 2: the push potential nine and a half, I'd say fire

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Speaker 2: for sure. But it's a Crochet game, so there's no

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Speaker 2: way they're going to put a line at nine and

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Speaker 2: a half or nine for Garrett Crochet. Frankly, this should

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Speaker 2: be I mean, most starts for Garrett Crochet, it's seven

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Speaker 2: or six and a half. So this is already two

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Speaker 2: runs higher given the fact that Kershaw's pitching on either

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Speaker 2: side and the Red Sox hitt lefties. That's why the

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Speaker 2: books are elevating this number to eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: So I don't mind the under. We bet the under

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Speaker 2: last night it was nine and a half or ten,

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Speaker 2: like I mentioned earlier, and that cashed. So if you

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Speaker 2: want to bet the under for the Red Sox and

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Speaker 2: the Dodgers don't hate it at all. You want bet

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Speaker 2: the Red Sox money line. That's the play I'm going

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Speaker 2: to make today. At minus one forty. Take Boston to win.

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Speaker 2: They are in desperate need of w's here at home.

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Speaker 2: They lost two of three on the road to the Cubs,

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Speaker 2: two or three on the road to the Phillies, and

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Speaker 2: now they're at home here against the Dodgers. This is

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Speaker 2: a very difficult part of the Red Sox schedule at

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Speaker 2: the moment. They play the Twins on the road after

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Speaker 2: this series, then they come home for Houston in Kansas City.

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Speaker 2: Then they play at San Diego and at Houston. They

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Speaker 2: don't get a reprieve until the middle of August, when

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Speaker 2: they'll play the Marlins and the and the Orioles before

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Speaker 2: they go to the Yankees and Baltimore on the road.

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Speaker 2: They play the Pirates in late August and then Cleveland

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Speaker 2: in early September. Red Sox had the toughest schedule of

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Speaker 2: anybody coming out of the break, and when they have

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Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet of the mound, they better win. They know

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Speaker 2: they've got to win these games. Red Sox money line

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Speaker 2: at minus one forty. Bet number two I'm going back

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Speaker 2: to it, and maybe this is a massive mistake to

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Speaker 2: go back to it, but I think yesterday was a fluke.

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Speaker 2: Okay Braves Rangers under eight and a half. Grant Holmes

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Speaker 2: is going for the Braves. Grant Holmes has not been

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Speaker 2: horrible on the road, all right. His last start was horrible,

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Speaker 2: three innings, five earned runs. However, that's a little bit

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Speaker 2: of an anomaly, all right. Maybe it was post All

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Speaker 2: Star break and just you know, things didn't roll.

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Speaker 1: I guess that was pre All Star break.

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Speaker 2: But I guess he was due to have a bad

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Speaker 2: start because against the Mets he went five two earned

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Speaker 2: against the Marlins he went five and two thirds zero

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Speaker 2: earned runs, and against the Brewers he went five and

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Speaker 2: a third in three earned runs. So he had won

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Speaker 2: really bad start three innings, five arned runs against Saint Louis.

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Speaker 2: But for the most part, Grant Holmes on the road

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Speaker 2: has been pretty good. Kumar Rocker at home, his games

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Speaker 2: have been flying under four to one against Detroit, three

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Speaker 2: to two against Seattle, two to one against the White Sox,

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Speaker 2: five to three against the Angels. And that was back

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Speaker 2: on the seventeenth of April. Okay at home Kumar Rocker

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Speaker 2: has a one point eight to four ERA, a three

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Speaker 2: to zero record, a one point eighty seven opposing batting average,

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Speaker 2: six are in runs in twenty nine and a third

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Speaker 2: innings worth of work. I just think until we see

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Speaker 2: consistency from the offenses involving games that are being played

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Speaker 2: by the Rangers, I just think we just go back

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Speaker 2: to it and just it's bet the streak. It's bet

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Speaker 2: what's happened most often, and we come in here. We

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Speaker 2: bet the Red Sox on the money line and the

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Speaker 2: Rangers and the Braves under eight and a half at

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Speaker 2: minus one fifteen. Now, if you want to bet Scooble,

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Speaker 2: it's two dollars. The Tigers are ice cold. The Tigers

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Speaker 2: are losing games left and right. They need to win

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Speaker 2: as bad as the Red Sox. It's the same logic

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Speaker 2: with the Tigers that it does with the Red Sox,

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Speaker 2: except the Tiger lead the division.

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Speaker 1: Red Sox are trying to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: They hold the final wild card spot, so like that's

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Speaker 2: the difference that the Tigers are going to be in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They know it.

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Speaker 2: So this swoon for them is bad, but it's not

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Speaker 2: as bad as what the Red Sox are dealing with

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Speaker 2: from a wildcard perspective and battling with the Blue Jays

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Speaker 2: and the Yankees. So that's why I think it's worth

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Speaker 2: betting the Red Sox. I'm not sure I would bet

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Speaker 2: Schooble and the Tigers just because they can't hit at

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Speaker 2: the moment and you have to bet run line. Money

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Speaker 2: line's too expensive, so you have to met them at

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Speaker 2: the run line. And under for that matter, is a

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Speaker 2: little bit dicey because it's seven. So while I think

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Speaker 2: the under comes in and while it's probably a pretty

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Speaker 2: good play to bet Schooble and the under, it's Gosman

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Speaker 2: and the and the Blue Jays at seven, juice to

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Speaker 2: the over. I mean, what happens if Gosman blows up

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Speaker 2: here today and the Tigers bust out of the slump

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Speaker 2: and the game flies over?

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Speaker 1: So I want, I probably want to stay away from

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Speaker 1: the total.

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Speaker 2: And if you want to put the Tigers in like

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Speaker 2: a Red Sox Tigers money line parlay, I don't really

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Speaker 2: mind that.

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Speaker 1: But I wouldn't be running to bet that.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't say like yes, so I have to bet that

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Speaker 2: because the Red Socks losing is a very real possibility.

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Speaker 2: Two player props for you here today. Let's start with

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Speaker 2: Antonio Senzatela. Earn runs under three and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's a little juicy at MIS one fifty. But Minnesota

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Speaker 2: three Boston for Chicago White Sox three last three starts. Okay,

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Speaker 2: three and a half is the number prop bet cheat sheet.

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Speaker 1: This is where we're jumping.

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Speaker 2: Seventy four percent cover probability, twenty three percent expected value,

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Speaker 2: five star rated play. He probably gives up three runs

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Speaker 2: on the road here to Baltimore. Betting on Rockies pitchers

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Speaker 2: not a course field is a smart move. And look

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Speaker 2: it's it's at Orioles at seven o five. Tonight's start

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Speaker 2: at Camon Yards on the road. Senttila's not been horrible, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I mean it's a guy that you can actually be

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Speaker 2: kind of comfortable backing away from cores Field. Now he's

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Speaker 2: four and thirteen. I'll get it. He's a horrible record,

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Speaker 2: but a lot of it has to do with the

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Speaker 2: fact that he's just been banged up and his team

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Speaker 2: gives him no run support whatsoever. And his last start

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Speaker 2: against the Red Sox five innings, four earned runs on

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Speaker 2: the road. That wasn't really his fault because he bounced

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Speaker 2: back against the Twins at home seven innings three earned

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Speaker 2: runs there against the White Sox five and two thirds

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Speaker 2: three earn runs and the month of July seventeen and

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Speaker 2: two third innings worth of work ten in and run

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Speaker 2: total but three four and three. So the numbers three,

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Speaker 2: three and a half. So he's gonna give up three

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Speaker 2: or four. Hopefully he gives up three. And if he

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Speaker 2: gives up three, then we're good and we go under

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Speaker 2: prop bit cheat sheet likes him to go under. That's

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Speaker 2: how line making works. Projection is two point six earned

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Speaker 2: runs for Antonio Cenetela of the Rockies. We're gonna bet

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Speaker 2: it under three and a half earned runs for Antonio

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Speaker 2: Censtela here for one, it's a little expensive. I know

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Speaker 2: one point five. We're gonna bet to win a half

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Speaker 2: a unit, so point seven to five units to come

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Speaker 2: in on that final bet. Second prop bet Hunter Brown

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Speaker 2: strikeouts seven and a half. Did you see what this

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Speaker 2: rookie did for the A's last night against the Astros? Arguably,

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Speaker 2: Nick Kurtz had the greatest baseball game in the history

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Speaker 2: of Major League Baseball. One hundred and fifty years of

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Speaker 2: playing Major League Baseball. We have never seen a player

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Speaker 2: with at least six hits, six runs, and eight RBIs.

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Speaker 2: Nick Kurtz did that last night. Nineteen total bases ties

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Speaker 2: Sean Green's single game record, but Kurtz had one more

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Speaker 2: RBI than Seawn Green had in that game where he

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Speaker 2: had seven, Kurts had eight. I mean, he hit four

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Speaker 2: home runs in that game. Four home runs, six for six,

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Speaker 2: nineteen bases, eight RBIs and six runs. It's arguably the

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Speaker 2: greatest single game ever. It means nothing for today, by

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Speaker 2: the way, I'm just saying, just bringing it up because

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Speaker 2: it's A's and Hunter Brown. Hunter Brown is a great pitcher.

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Speaker 2: He had seven k's in his last start, eight k's

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Speaker 2: in the start before that in three case before that.

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Speaker 2: So we're under two of the last three games for

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Speaker 2: Hunter Brown with strikeouts on the road. He's been a

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Speaker 2: little bit down for strikeouts. He went under against Seattle,

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Speaker 2: had eight against Colorado on the road, had four against

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Speaker 2: the Angels on the road. It had nine against Cleveland

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Speaker 2: on the road. The A's are a pretty much middle

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Speaker 2: of the pack strikeout team. They did strike out a

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Speaker 2: lot last night, but the team's hot, obviously, and it

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Speaker 2: was a blowout. So I think we're gonna get Hunter

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Speaker 2: Brown here six or seven strikeouts. Projection is six numbers,

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Speaker 2: seven and a half, seventy one percent cover probability, twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent expected value to five star play. According to

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Speaker 2: the prop bet cheat sheet, We're going to jump in

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Speaker 2: with under seven and a half betett to win a

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Speaker 2: half a unit at point sixty five units for Hunter

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Speaker 2: Brown under seven and a half strikeouts.

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Speaker 1: All right, so.

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Speaker 2: Plays Sport Today Red Sex Money line up against the

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Speaker 2: Dodgers and Garrett Crochet at one point four units the

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Speaker 2: Rangers Braves under eight and a half, same bet that

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Speaker 2: I've been making all week. Hunter Brown under seven and

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Speaker 2: a half k's at minus one thirty in Antonio Santatela

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Speaker 2: under three and a half earned runs at minus one fifty.

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Speaker 2: The two props coming to you thanks to the prop bet.

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Speaker 1: Cheet Cheet.

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Speaker 2: My name is Matt Parolt. Thank you for watching. I

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Speaker 2: apologize for the delay on this podcast. You guys can

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Speaker 2: follow me on my socials at sports Talk Matt. Every

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Speaker 2: morning wherever you guys get your podcasts, even when it's late.

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Speaker 1: It's the Daily Juice