WEBVTT - TV | RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine came as a shock

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<v Speaker 1>to people around the world, but historically speaking, it's nothing new.

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<v Speaker 1>Under Soviet leadership and now Vladimir Putin, Russia has frequently

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<v Speaker 1>terrorized and invaded sovereign states, violently attempting to force its

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<v Speaker 1>will on neighboring countries and countries all over the world.

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<v Speaker 1>On this special edition of Hold the Line will take

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<v Speaker 1>a look at Russia's history of aggression from Afghanistan to Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the special edition of Hold the Line. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Buck Sexton. Look, the Russians are not new to military incursion,

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<v Speaker 1>invasion of other sovereign countries. We understand that this is

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<v Speaker 1>something they've done numerous times. They've gone into Georgia, They've

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<v Speaker 1>already taken Crimea and much of the Donbass region of

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<v Speaker 1>eastern Ukraine. They've also had a military intervention in Syria

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<v Speaker 1>on behalf of the Assad regime. They've gone into Afghanistan

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<v Speaker 1>back in the end of the Soviet era as well.

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<v Speaker 1>You'd think they might have learned a very painful and

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<v Speaker 1>high casualty lesson from that, but it turns out their

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<v Speaker 1>imperial ambitions continued even after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's take a look at current NATO nations and Russia

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<v Speaker 1>to get a sense of where we stand here. As

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<v Speaker 1>you can see, Russia still views itself as under threat

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<v Speaker 1>from NATO and therefore wants to expand territorially and also

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of its military and economic influence in ways

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<v Speaker 1>to counter what's happening here. Counter the NATO alliance that

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<v Speaker 1>is arrayed was arrayed against the Soviet Union. Back in February,

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<v Speaker 1>Putin gave a speech in which he talked about the

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<v Speaker 1>current situation that's underway here. He said, for thirty years,

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<v Speaker 1>we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement

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<v Speaker 1>with the leading natokas the principles of equal and inviolable

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<v Speaker 1>security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly

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<v Speaker 1>face either cynical deception and lies, or attempts to pressure

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<v Speaker 1>and blackmail. While NATO, despite all our protests and concerns,

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<v Speaker 1>continues to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and

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<v Speaker 1>I repeat, is coming close to our borders. So here's

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<v Speaker 1>Putin trying to explain that he viewsed this, believe it

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<v Speaker 1>or not. He views offensive measures such as what we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing right now in Ukraine with the war there, but

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<v Speaker 1>also previous offensive measures, whether it's taking the Crimea and

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<v Speaker 1>the Dawn Boss region, the separatist area of Eastern Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>Russian backed separatism of course, and also South Ossetia and

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<v Speaker 1>Abkhazia in Georgia. He views all of those maneuvers as

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<v Speaker 1>defensive in nature because they are against the NATO alliance.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is also how he justifies military incursion military

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<v Speaker 1>aggression against countries with which he is not at war.

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<v Speaker 1>Putin is claiming and has claimed, including in his speech

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<v Speaker 1>in February, that the West took Ukraine hostage. What is

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<v Speaker 1>happening today, he said, does not come out of a

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<v Speaker 1>desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian people. It is related to the protection of Russia

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<v Speaker 1>itself from those who took Ukraine hostage and are trying

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<v Speaker 1>to use it against our country and its people. This

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<v Speaker 1>is fashionating. This is quite a reversal, isn't it. Here

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<v Speaker 1>you have someone who has engaged in multiple acts of

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<v Speaker 1>aggression against military aggression against neighboring countries and does send

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<v Speaker 1>troops around the world when he decides as necessary, including

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<v Speaker 1>to Syria, in order to expand Russian influence at the

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<v Speaker 1>expense of other countries in the region, at the expense

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<v Speaker 1>of movements determined to either out's dictators or achieved freedom,

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<v Speaker 1>or any number of things. He thinks that whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>the incursion into Czechnia, which the Russians engaged in under

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<v Speaker 1>Putin's Putin's leadership, or the various Russian incursions into neighboring

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<v Speaker 1>territory Georgia and Ukraine, most notably, that this is fine,

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<v Speaker 1>that this is actually defensive in nature, because Russia has

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<v Speaker 1>to stand up for itself and its allies. Quite a

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<v Speaker 1>an experience of reverse psychology here. Putin, By the way,

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<v Speaker 1>I also told the West not to intervene in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>and said to anyone who would consider interfering from the outside,

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<v Speaker 1>if you do, you will face consequences greater than any

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<v Speaker 1>you have faced in history. All the relevant decisions have

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<v Speaker 1>been taken. I hope you hear me. I mean he

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<v Speaker 1>is threatening, certainly major military reprisals against any Western country

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<v Speaker 1>that would try to stop this madness in Ukraine. But

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<v Speaker 1>also in the background, many say he's essentially brandishing his

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear arsenal in order to back up the military aggression

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<v Speaker 1>that he has engaged in in Ukraine. Where is all

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<v Speaker 1>of this heading. Well, we've certainly seen that Russia has

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<v Speaker 1>used previous invasions as a testing ground for both tactics

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<v Speaker 1>and the response from NATO and the West and the

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<v Speaker 1>international community. So what can we learn from those previous

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<v Speaker 1>military military decisions that Russia has made to go into

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<v Speaker 1>foreign countries? Does that give us some template, some insight

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<v Speaker 1>into where this conflict in Ukraine is headed. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to address tonight in this special We've got

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<v Speaker 1>a great lineup of experts to give us insight into

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's aggressive military policies. Coming up. It was called the

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<v Speaker 1>Soviet Union's Vietnam Moscow's nineteen seventy nine invasion of Afghanistan

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<v Speaker 1>was devastating and devastating for the Afghan people, but it

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<v Speaker 1>might also have been the final nail in the coffin

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<v Speaker 1>of the Soviet Empire. What do we learn from this?

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<v Speaker 1>Stay with us. On December twenty fourth, nineteen seventy nine,

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. That invasion kicked off a

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<v Speaker 1>brutal decade of warfare that would ultimately call as many

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<v Speaker 1>as two million lives. According to some estimates, conflict would

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<v Speaker 1>also mark the last major military operation of the Soviet Union,

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<v Speaker 1>which felt less than three years after the war ended.

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<v Speaker 1>During Now for a closer look at the Soviet invasion

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<v Speaker 1>of Afghanistan, as the director of the Heritage Foundation Center

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<v Speaker 1>from National Defense, retired Army Lieutenant General Tom Sport. Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for being with us, Thanks for having me, bug. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>So let's just understand first what was the decision making process,

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<v Speaker 1>and given what we're seeing right now with Putin in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>might be helpful understand the calculations at the time of

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, what led up to what

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<v Speaker 1>were they trying to achieve? Yeah, and so Afghanistan had

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<v Speaker 1>had a Marxist communist puppet regime if you will, for

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of years prior to their invasion, but that

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<v Speaker 1>regime was kind of under pressure from the Islamist in

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<v Speaker 1>Afghanistan and they were actually losing that war. And so

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviet Union under that Secretary Braznev starting to get

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<v Speaker 1>the sense that Afghanistan was going to collapse. And was

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<v Speaker 1>that that reading of what was going on in Afghanistan

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<v Speaker 1>that ultimately caused them to choose to intervene in Afghanistan?

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<v Speaker 1>How did it go in the early phase as the

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<v Speaker 1>Soviets ramped up military operations there against the Afghan resistance,

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<v Speaker 1>they clearly had air superiority. I mean, how did the

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<v Speaker 1>military operations look in the early phase of what turned

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<v Speaker 1>into a decade long war. Yeah, the Soviets had initially

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<v Speaker 1>a great success. I guess you would say they dropped

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<v Speaker 1>airborne troops right into the capital Kabul. They were successful

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<v Speaker 1>and finding the guy that was acting as president at

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<v Speaker 1>the time and essentially neutralizing him, taking the reins of power,

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<v Speaker 1>and then capturing the major cities of Afghanistan. So you

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<v Speaker 1>think Kandahar and others, those fell relatively quickly to the Soviets,

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<v Speaker 1>unlike you know what we are seeing in the Ukraine today.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I think you'd have to say that the

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<v Speaker 1>first few months the Soviets had to been happy with

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<v Speaker 1>how things went. Now, what were some of the changing

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<v Speaker 1>the tipping points, if you will, or some of the

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<v Speaker 1>momentum shifts that occurred with the Mujahadeen And why was

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<v Speaker 1>it that the course of this conflict sort of to

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<v Speaker 1>turn against the Soviets. Yeah, the Mushadean even before the

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<v Speaker 1>Soviets got there were a powerful fighting force. That's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that is what they do, that's their history. And so

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<v Speaker 1>they were never a cohesive one group of Muhadeen. They

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<v Speaker 1>were multiple war lords, but they kind of coalesced, and frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviet invasion of their country really kind of made

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<v Speaker 1>them have a common enemy that they all gathered around.

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<v Speaker 1>And there were at least eighty eight hundred different Muhahadeen

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<v Speaker 1>bases that they worked out of the support of multiple nations,

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<v Speaker 1>including the United States, the UK, Pakistan, and surprisingly enough

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<v Speaker 1>even at the time, China helped keep the Muhadeen supplied

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<v Speaker 1>and they became over time a more and more effective force,

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<v Speaker 1>employing famously Stinger missiles to bring down Soviet hind helicopters

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<v Speaker 1>and the like. So the changing of the advantage that

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviets had from the air specifically, that was I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is known to most people as it's depicted in

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<v Speaker 1>the movie Charlie Wilson's War, right that that was actually

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<v Speaker 1>a major tactical shift then away from the complete air

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<v Speaker 1>dominance superiority of the Soviets had had because of those Stingers. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that and plus the Muhadeen really controlled the countryside. So

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviets kept and held the major cities, they really

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<v Speaker 1>never lost any of them to the Muchadeen. But the countryside,

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<v Speaker 1>the roads, the connecting roads, those are really under the

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<v Speaker 1>Muhadein's control. And so in a situation like that, you

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<v Speaker 1>can never really consolidate power if you only can venture

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<v Speaker 1>out of the city's in limited situations. So there was

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<v Speaker 1>almost from the start the Soviets were in trouble in

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<v Speaker 1>that invasion. What was the political calculation like for the

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<v Speaker 1>Soviets towards towards the end of it too, It was

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<v Speaker 1>it just purely casualties in a sense that the military

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't going to accomplish the mission of installing a communist

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<v Speaker 1>puppet regime in Cobble. I mean, what brought about the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the conflict, Yeah, a realization that they were

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<v Speaker 1>not winning. They were just it was just a stalemate.

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<v Speaker 1>They had a change of leadership. Corbetchov came in, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>widely viewed as a reformist kind of leader for the

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<v Speaker 1>Soviet Union. He could see that they were spending billions

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<v Speaker 1>of rubles, had spent thousands of lives, and really had

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<v Speaker 1>nothing to show for it, and so like in other areas,

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<v Speaker 1>Corbetchov decided to reduce their losses in that area and

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<v Speaker 1>started the withdrawal, I want to say, in around nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>eighty seven and it ended in nineteen eighty nine. Did

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<v Speaker 1>you give us a sense of the kind of suppression

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<v Speaker 1>tactics and the level of brutality that the Soviets willing

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<v Speaker 1>to engage into in military parliamce perhaps pacify to two

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<v Speaker 1>oppress the resistance in Afghanistan? We know there was a

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<v Speaker 1>very high civilian casualty account. What were the tactics that

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviets used, What kind of of tactics and maneuvers

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<v Speaker 1>were they deploying? And the Soviets used what are widely

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<v Speaker 1>recognized as war crimes to kind of suppress the Afghans.

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<v Speaker 1>So they slaughtered entire villages that had, you know, had

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<v Speaker 1>the temerity to fight back against the Soviets. They raped

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<v Speaker 1>the women of Afghanistan, they killed millions of Afghans, bombed schools, churches, hospitals,

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<v Speaker 1>and so really the sky is the limit when you

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<v Speaker 1>when you want to think about what went on in

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<v Speaker 1>Afghanistan and what they did to the poor people of

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<v Speaker 1>that country. Still unable to break the back of the

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<v Speaker 1>resistance though, as we know, and the Soviets had an

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<v Speaker 1>ignominious withdrawal at the end of this. Some say that

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<v Speaker 1>the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union, if not triggered by,

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<v Speaker 1>was hastened at least by this failed war, this failed

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<v Speaker 1>military invasion of Afghanistan. What do you say to that.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's very true. And so, you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>think about the big moments, you know, Ronald Reagan saying,

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<v Speaker 1>mister Gorbachev, tear this wall down, and we think about

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<v Speaker 1>the Star Wars initiative. I think you have to put

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<v Speaker 1>the war in Afghanistan and their failure there and all

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<v Speaker 1>the millions of dollars of rubles they spent there that

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<v Speaker 1>really I think helped to bring down that evil regime.

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<v Speaker 1>And as we look today at the situation in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>do you feel that there are lessons learned from the

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<v Speaker 1>international community and from the Western Powers about what happened

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<v Speaker 1>to the Soviets in Afghanistan and what should be applied

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<v Speaker 1>now to Ukraine. Yeah, I think there's a lot of lessons.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of similarities, I mean, and there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of differences to the Soviets thought they were going

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<v Speaker 1>to have great I think initial success in the Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and underestimated the resistance there. And you can see the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing playing out again in the Ukraine now, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I think that it's hard for the Ukrainian people.

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<v Speaker 1>I think making a difference. We can't see it now

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<v Speaker 1>because we're so close to the conflict. Now, as we

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<v Speaker 1>zoom back and as we see this maybe from a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more distance, I think we're going to see

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<v Speaker 1>that their bravery is going to make a huge difference. Tenant, Colonel,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for being with us. We appreciate it, sir,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, sir. In nineteen ninety two, a small territory

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<v Speaker 1>known as chechney And declared its independence from the Russian Federation,

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<v Speaker 1>a move that would lead to two brutal wars with

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<v Speaker 1>Russia and cost thousands of lives. When we come back,

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<v Speaker 1>Jim Brooke of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies

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<v Speaker 1>joins us to give his insight into the Chechen Wars.

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<v Speaker 1>Stay with us. A year after the fall of a

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<v Speaker 1>Soviet Union, Chechen, a small territory in Russia's southwestern region,

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<v Speaker 1>declared independence from the Russian Federation. Unlike other republics. At

0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:00.560
<v Speaker 1>the time, Chechny's independence was rejected by Moscow and would

0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 1>spark two wars. Of the course of the next decade

0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 1>and a half. Chechen separatists waged a brutal guerrilla war

0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.520
<v Speaker 1>against Russian forces, and the wars would ultimately cost tens

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.520
<v Speaker 1>of thousands of Russian and Chechen lives. Join me now

0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.840
<v Speaker 1>is Russia Ukraine. Fellow at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies

0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 1>and former Moscow bureau chief for Bloomberg Jim Brook. Jim,

0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 1>thanks for being with us. Thank you so, John. Let's

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 1>start with the first Chechen War, which started in nineteen

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>ninety four. What's the background on this and why, for example,

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't the Russians after the fall of the Soviet Union

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 1>allow cheching us a seed like other territories. Head well,

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 1>Chession is an overwhelmingly Muslim population, a long history of

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:47.240
<v Speaker 1>mountain guerrillas, fierce fighters, and the Russians are afraid of

0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 1>letting Chessnion go because there's a whole swath in Russia.

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:53.440
<v Speaker 1>It could cut the country and a half that is

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:58.240
<v Speaker 1>Muslim tartistown, but shorts a stand some of the little

0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 1>stands there They happen to be called they're on the Volga,

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>and they could literally cut Russia in half. So first

0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeltsen then Putin wanted to send a very clear message

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 1>to the other Islamic majority republics which are inside Russia

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.480
<v Speaker 1>that they were not going to get independence and the

0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 1>country would not be cut in half. And so how

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.560
<v Speaker 1>did hostilities begin and what was the so that the

0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Russians went in under what pretext into Chechi in nineteen

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:31.720
<v Speaker 1>ninety four obviously to stop the stop the secession movement there,

0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 1>But how how was it in the early days. Obviously

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.440
<v Speaker 1>we're looking at the situation Ukraine now trying to figure

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.280
<v Speaker 1>out if there are any parallels or you know, strategic

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 1>comparisons in dral Yeah, and your video shows terrible parallels.

0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 1>It was basically scorched earth. It started off with the

0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 1>ethnic Chechen members of the Red Army basically formed their

0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 1>own army and took their own weapons with them, and

0:15:56.880 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 1>there was a Chech in general who became president. They

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.920
<v Speaker 1>launched their own war genocide against ethnic Russians, and they

0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:11.320
<v Speaker 1>fought Russia into a stalemate. They got independence recognized by

0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 1>virtually nobody. And that brings up to about nineteen ninety

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 1>nine two thousand, when Putin was up for the presidency.

0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 1>Then things get very sinister. There were three apartment bombings

0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:29.400
<v Speaker 1>in the Russian part of Russia which killed hundreds of people,

0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 1>and the third one they discovered some FSB which is

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 1>the later KGB operatives, basically piling fertilizer into the basement

0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 1>of a building. These men were detained arrested. But the

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:50.440
<v Speaker 1>thinking is that Putin and his FSB cohorts planned these

0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:54.360
<v Speaker 1>terrible apartment bombings, I say, killed hundreds of people to

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 1>rally the country behind him and his tough policies. With Chechia.

0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:03.080
<v Speaker 1>I was sort of in and out of Russia around

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.200
<v Speaker 1>that time. By the time I got there, which is

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and six, the war was still going on.

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>And I visited Chesnia Grosny the capitol, in twenty twelve,

0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 1>and it was like a disneyland. It was everything was cute.

0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:20.400
<v Speaker 1>Avery's rebuilt. There was even a toy Orthodox church. He

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:25.320
<v Speaker 1>had leveled Grosny, the capital of Chechia. It looked like Stalingrad.

0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:28.680
<v Speaker 1>It had been totally leveled, and then when he got

0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:32.119
<v Speaker 1>control again of Chesnia, he rebuilt it. So that's a

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:36.160
<v Speaker 1>scary parallel that he basically destroyed the capitol and destroyed

0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.719
<v Speaker 1>this so called country in order to keep it inside

0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:44.120
<v Speaker 1>underneath the Russian umbrella. How did I know? There were

0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:47.120
<v Speaker 1>two Chechen conflicts, and we're trying to give at least

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:50.960
<v Speaker 1>some background here on both of them. Everybody watching the

0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:56.400
<v Speaker 1>first Chechen War ended, how and why? The church first

0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 1>Chester War ended basically with a victory of the guerrillas,

0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 1>and Yelson drudgingly kind of gave up, and the gorillas

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:10.919
<v Speaker 1>announced a independent nation which is recognized by virtually nobody,

0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>and that lasted for two or three years, and then

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:18.080
<v Speaker 1>the socially when Putin came back, the Russian side to

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:23.360
<v Speaker 1>have another go at it and used even tougher strategies,

0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 1>including essentially carpet bombing, really destroying the city. So so

0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:31.000
<v Speaker 1>that would be the second, the second conflict. So let's

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:35.639
<v Speaker 1>say that the first, the first Chechen incursion into Chechen fails.

0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:38.399
<v Speaker 1>Yelson says, all right, and there's a something of a

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:41.320
<v Speaker 1>day facto independence for chech being during that period, as

0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:44.720
<v Speaker 1>you say, doesn't get everybody to actually recognize in the

0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:49.400
<v Speaker 1>international scene. Then Putin takes charge and nineteen ninety nine

0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:54.400
<v Speaker 1>again in nineteen ninety nine, they roll in and different tactics.

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:59.000
<v Speaker 1>What's what's the approach? Well, as I said, it scores

0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.440
<v Speaker 1>to earth. Now, the Chechens had a lot of Saudi

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.119
<v Speaker 1>Jahadist money, so they were not orphans. Let's say on

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:10.159
<v Speaker 1>the international scene, they had money and weapons. And I

0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:14.120
<v Speaker 1>think one of the Saudi kings threatened several years ago.

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:17.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, we can turn Cheching it back on a

0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 1>centister threat. But to answer your question, bouten one control

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:29.880
<v Speaker 1>of Chechi through very vicious brutal methods scored short. I said,

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:35.919
<v Speaker 1>heavy bombing, tons of civilians were killed and basically batted

0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 1>them into submission. And when I moved to Moscow in

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:40.720
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and six, it went on for several more years.

0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:45.240
<v Speaker 1>But there was a huge amount of sensitivity in Russia too,

0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.680
<v Speaker 1>dead soldiers coming back, and there are these committees and

0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:54.200
<v Speaker 1>mothers of soldiers and the burials were hidden, and they

0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.520
<v Speaker 1>really did not want to repeat of Afghanistan, although they

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:02.240
<v Speaker 1>they lost thousands of men in Chess by all accounts.

0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:07.159
<v Speaker 1>So there are reports right now that there are specific

0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Chechen fighters men loyal to catterall right, the authority character

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 1>leader of Czechnia that they're going to be fighting that

0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 1>they are fighting in Ukraine. What can you tell us

0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:24.400
<v Speaker 1>about that? Well, they're apparently Chechens on both sides. Chechens

0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:31.399
<v Speaker 1>are very brutal fighters. Their national sport is wrestling. They

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:35.920
<v Speaker 1>really enjoy fighting. They're natural born fighters, knife fighters, gun fighters.

0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:41.800
<v Speaker 1>And the Chechens who lost the war against Putin have

0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:45.119
<v Speaker 1>either been an exile in Europe or elsewhere and they've

0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:49.439
<v Speaker 1>come back to join the Ukrainians. So the Ukrainian government

0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:51.760
<v Speaker 1>has a few Chechens on their side, and then the

0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:57.240
<v Speaker 1>Russian government has said sent Chechens into Ukraine, reportedly to

0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:01.959
<v Speaker 1>assassinate President Zelenski. And we know the Chechens have been

0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:06.080
<v Speaker 1>in the Russian controlled parts of southeastern Ukraine since twenty fourteen.

0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Oh further ago, I don't know. There's a very interesting memorial.

0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:16.640
<v Speaker 1>The World War Two Museum in Kiev has a section

0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:20.919
<v Speaker 1>to the foreign volunteers Chechens and Georgians who come to

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 1>fight in Ukraine against the Russians. So this is not

0:21:24.720 --> 0:21:31.240
<v Speaker 1>totally new that men Chechen and Georgian men looking for

0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 1>a chance to shoot Russians would go to Ukraine. Jim,

0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:35.639
<v Speaker 1>we want to come back in a second here and

0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.080
<v Speaker 1>talk about Georgia. Stay with us if you would please,

0:21:39.600 --> 0:21:42.800
<v Speaker 1>because back in two thousand and eight, Vladimir Putin invaded

0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:45.160
<v Speaker 1>the Republic of Georgia using a lot of the same

0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:48.320
<v Speaker 1>pretexts we're seeing here in Ukraine present day. When we

0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 1>come back, we'll be rejoined by Jim Brooke, who's going

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:53.720
<v Speaker 1>to give insight on the Russo Georgian War and how

0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:56.520
<v Speaker 1>some of those tactics are being replayed right now in Ukraine.

0:21:56.640 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 1>Stay with us. Many consider it the first European war

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:17.080
<v Speaker 1>of the twenty first century. In two thousand and eight,

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:20.240
<v Speaker 1>Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia, a former Soviet state

0:22:20.280 --> 0:22:23.520
<v Speaker 1>which had achieved independence in nineteen ninety one. The war

0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:26.160
<v Speaker 1>would only last two weeks and had ended with Russia's

0:22:26.160 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>recognition of two regions in Georgia as independent of Khazia

0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:33.800
<v Speaker 1>and South Ossetia. Although these two areas are not internationally recognized,

0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 1>they become de facto countries closely aligned with Russia, and

0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:40.720
<v Speaker 1>outcome many believe Vladimir Putin wants to repeat in Ukraine.

0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:43.680
<v Speaker 1>Joining once again is Russia. Ukraine fellow at the Foundation

0:22:43.680 --> 0:22:47.159
<v Speaker 1>for Defensive Democracies and former Moscow Bureau chief for Bloomberg

0:22:47.400 --> 0:22:51.119
<v Speaker 1>Jim Brooke, Jim, thanks so much, Thank you buy And

0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 1>I was also the VA Voice American bureau chief in Moscow,

0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:59.160
<v Speaker 1>which brought me to places like Georgia and Grosne, which

0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:02.760
<v Speaker 1>you just mentioned. Indeed, so the Russian invasion of Georgia

0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:06.080
<v Speaker 1>Gym is seen by many today as the most analogous

0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 1>to Putin's invasion of Ukraine on a number of levels.

0:23:09.160 --> 0:23:12.240
<v Speaker 1>Could he just walk us through what was the pretext

0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:15.240
<v Speaker 1>for Russia's invasion of Georgia. What were the factors at

0:23:15.280 --> 0:23:19.760
<v Speaker 1>play right before and in the run up to this, Yeah, Black,

0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:22.720
<v Speaker 1>very good question. I was in George of the first

0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:26.720
<v Speaker 1>week of the war, just almost by accident, and then

0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:28.480
<v Speaker 1>in the fag of war we really didn't know what

0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:32.480
<v Speaker 1>was going on. But now journalists and historians have put

0:23:32.520 --> 0:23:36.639
<v Speaker 1>together the TikTok the timeline. What happened was that George W.

0:23:36.840 --> 0:23:39.840
<v Speaker 1>Bush went to the NATO summit in Bucharest in April

0:23:40.560 --> 0:23:45.160
<v Speaker 1>and strongly urged Europe to accept Georgia and Ukraine as

0:23:45.240 --> 0:23:48.040
<v Speaker 1>members of NATO. The Germans, of the French and the

0:23:48.080 --> 0:23:50.600
<v Speaker 1>Brits kind of pushed the whole thing off until December.

0:23:51.359 --> 0:23:56.359
<v Speaker 1>The Russians got very alarmed and we now know within

0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:59.840
<v Speaker 1>a week started drawing up a plan to invade Georgia.

0:24:00.119 --> 0:24:04.879
<v Speaker 1>The same time the Russian Duma, as president putin to

0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:08.760
<v Speaker 1>recognize these two separatist areas of separate republics. I bring

0:24:08.800 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 1>this up because all this happened again with Ukraine. Then

0:24:13.480 --> 0:24:17.399
<v Speaker 1>the Russian railroad troops. When Animajazia reinforced the railroad, which

0:24:17.480 --> 0:24:21.040
<v Speaker 1>and where the Russian railroad troops go, soldiers followed, so

0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 1>people should have drawn connections there. Then there were two

0:24:25.760 --> 0:24:30.560
<v Speaker 1>weeks of maneuvers just north of the Georgian border. And

0:24:30.640 --> 0:24:33.480
<v Speaker 1>when the maneuvers are over, they left behind a thousand

0:24:33.520 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 1>pieces of equipment. They did not go home. I'm talking

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:40.000
<v Speaker 1>about armored personnel carriers, tank trucks, chiefs, the sort of thing.

0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:43.960
<v Speaker 1>That weekend, and when I was in Georgia that weekend,

0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:51.760
<v Speaker 1>they started to accuse, accused George of genocide, and they

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:56.120
<v Speaker 1>started to evacuate civilians from South Assetia. And I saw

0:24:56.160 --> 0:24:59.920
<v Speaker 1>these hysterical reports out of South Assetia by Russian correspond

0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:03.600
<v Speaker 1>So they were loading women and children on buses and

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:07.560
<v Speaker 1>sending them up into the safety of Russia. This is

0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:11.120
<v Speaker 1>exactly what happened in the last two weeks with Ukraine,

0:25:11.560 --> 0:25:16.040
<v Speaker 1>there was the Duma asked Boutin to recognize the separatist

0:25:16.080 --> 0:25:21.240
<v Speaker 1>republics as independent nations. There were maneuvers, the equipment did

0:25:21.240 --> 0:25:26.720
<v Speaker 1>not go home. Boutin accused Georgia, accused Ukraine of genocide,

0:25:27.480 --> 0:25:32.520
<v Speaker 1>and the civilians were evacuated. Then, in the case of Georgia,

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:37.720
<v Speaker 1>back in August twenty eight, two eight, there's a lot

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:42.040
<v Speaker 1>of cross border shelling, light across line shelling, and that

0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:45.199
<v Speaker 1>was so the warm up. In that case, the president

0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:48.840
<v Speaker 1>of Georgia, Mihail Sakshavili, fell for the bait and he

0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:52.600
<v Speaker 1>actually attacked. You know, it's the mouth of Royty attacked Georgia.

0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:58.560
<v Speaker 1>Georgia attacked Russia, and that led to the Russians whacking

0:25:58.600 --> 0:26:02.040
<v Speaker 1>back very severely, and they poured through the only tunnel

0:26:02.119 --> 0:26:05.159
<v Speaker 1>through the Caucass mountains, and they cut Georgia and a

0:26:05.160 --> 0:26:08.280
<v Speaker 1>half Georgia's an east west country, and they cut the railroad,

0:26:08.320 --> 0:26:13.080
<v Speaker 1>they cut the highway, they bombed gory Or the birthplace

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:16.920
<v Speaker 1>of Stalin, and then they started moving east and stopped

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:19.760
<v Speaker 1>about twenty five miles short of the capitol, which is Tabilisi.

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:24.000
<v Speaker 1>So they did it. Um you can pick nits with

0:26:24.080 --> 0:26:28.760
<v Speaker 1>how the military behave, but they basically took Georgia in

0:26:28.840 --> 0:26:32.000
<v Speaker 1>about ten days, as you say, and then they had

0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:37.720
<v Speaker 1>to sue for peace. So these two j ash sorry,

0:26:37.720 --> 0:26:40.920
<v Speaker 1>these two areas of Georgia that were, as I understand it,

0:26:41.000 --> 0:26:45.560
<v Speaker 1>largely Russian speaking south pasttia An Abkhazia, they were the

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:49.800
<v Speaker 1>separate They're the separatist enclaves that was over what over

0:26:49.840 --> 0:26:54.119
<v Speaker 1>a decade ago. Now where do those countries or separatist

0:26:54.200 --> 0:26:57.119
<v Speaker 1>enclaves whatever we call them, currently stand. Have they been

0:26:57.160 --> 0:27:01.800
<v Speaker 1>formally absorbed into the Russian Federation. No, they claim to

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:05.040
<v Speaker 1>be independent countries. And I've visited up Ahazia for Voice

0:27:05.080 --> 0:27:07.240
<v Speaker 1>of America and it was kind of a creepy place

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 1>because the population is half of what it was before

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:13.560
<v Speaker 1>the war. Now, the Georgians had done their own bit

0:27:13.600 --> 0:27:16.439
<v Speaker 1>of ethic cleansing, so they're not totally innocent in this,

0:27:16.520 --> 0:27:19.879
<v Speaker 1>but the population of one hundred and fifty thousand compared

0:27:19.920 --> 0:27:22.080
<v Speaker 1>to three hundred thousand before the war. It's a beautiful part.

0:27:23.000 --> 0:27:26.240
<v Speaker 1>All these rivers that come down, they're wonderful beaches. It's

0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:30.679
<v Speaker 1>it's subtropical, it's lovely, but it's this kind of phony country.

0:27:30.720 --> 0:27:33.520
<v Speaker 1>And I got in hot water with VA and Washington

0:27:33.600 --> 0:27:38.520
<v Speaker 1>because I dateline my stories. You know, Sumi or Sakumi Abhazia,

0:27:38.600 --> 0:27:41.760
<v Speaker 1>and they said, Wellias is not a country recognized by

0:27:41.800 --> 0:27:44.320
<v Speaker 1>the United States or anyone in Europe, so you cannot

0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:48.840
<v Speaker 1>put that dateline on your story. So these two areas

0:27:48.880 --> 0:27:52.119
<v Speaker 1>continue to claim their independent they have their own flag,

0:27:53.040 --> 0:27:56.960
<v Speaker 1>but they're one subsidized by Russia. The basic extension of

0:27:57.000 --> 0:28:00.879
<v Speaker 1>Russian power south of the Russian border. There are thousands

0:28:00.920 --> 0:28:04.600
<v Speaker 1>of Russian troops primarily station in both places. So is

0:28:04.600 --> 0:28:10.119
<v Speaker 1>your expectation then in Ukraine, the Georgia secession or Georgia

0:28:10.200 --> 0:28:14.680
<v Speaker 1>separatist enclave playbook is going to be what the Russian

0:28:14.720 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 1>strategy is, at least in the east, in the dawn

0:28:16.560 --> 0:28:18.399
<v Speaker 1>Boss region. I mean, how does that play out in

0:28:18.440 --> 0:28:22.200
<v Speaker 1>your mind? Yeah, but kids already happened in the Duma

0:28:22.520 --> 0:28:26.639
<v Speaker 1>recommended that the two separatist regions of Ukraine be recognized

0:28:26.680 --> 0:28:29.680
<v Speaker 1>as countries, and Putin did just that last week. He

0:28:29.720 --> 0:28:33.359
<v Speaker 1>recognized these two areas of separate countries, and then he

0:28:33.920 --> 0:28:37.640
<v Speaker 1>made his big invasion like the next day. I don't

0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:41.320
<v Speaker 1>know what's going to happen in Ukraine. My fear, on

0:28:41.320 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 1>one level, Russia's losing on the ground. My fear is

0:28:45.120 --> 0:28:47.280
<v Speaker 1>that Putin will lose patients and come back with the

0:28:47.280 --> 0:28:50.720
<v Speaker 1>air war and flatten a couple of Ukrainian cities to

0:28:51.400 --> 0:28:56.640
<v Speaker 1>give them a lesson, so to speak. Jim, you go ahead,

0:28:56.680 --> 0:29:01.200
<v Speaker 1>go ahead, No, I mean this is Boutin did. That's

0:29:01.360 --> 0:29:03.880
<v Speaker 1>one way he won in Zechiam, and it's what he

0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:07.440
<v Speaker 1>did more recently in Syria. He flattened much of this

0:29:07.600 --> 0:29:13.800
<v Speaker 1>Idlib province without hitting a hospital's, department, buildings, whatever. And

0:29:13.840 --> 0:29:17.400
<v Speaker 1>he is ruthless and has no compunction about killing civilians.

0:29:18.000 --> 0:29:21.840
<v Speaker 1>And unless there's a note fly zone over Ukraine, which

0:29:22.160 --> 0:29:24.600
<v Speaker 1>the US you don't really want to do, and it

0:29:24.600 --> 0:29:28.240
<v Speaker 1>would be the US that have to maintain it, he

0:29:28.320 --> 0:29:31.920
<v Speaker 1>will be fairly free to bomb the heck out of Ukraine.

0:29:33.640 --> 0:29:35.640
<v Speaker 1>Jim Brooke, thanks so much for joining us today. Appreciate

0:29:35.640 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 1>the expertise and perspective. Thank you. In twenty fifteen, is

0:29:41.680 --> 0:29:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Bashar al Assad, president of Syria, fought for his life

0:29:44.600 --> 0:29:47.280
<v Speaker 1>during the Syrian Civil War. Russian force is intervened to

0:29:47.320 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 1>help prop up his regime. We come back. Bill Rogio

0:29:50.280 --> 0:29:52.760
<v Speaker 1>of the Foundation for Defensive Democracy stopped by to give

0:29:52.760 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 1>his insight into Russia's intervention in Syria. They right there.

0:30:10.560 --> 0:30:13.080
<v Speaker 1>It's now day seven of the war in Ukraine. Russia

0:30:13.120 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 1>continues to bombard the country with pomps and missiles targeting

0:30:16.000 --> 0:30:20.040
<v Speaker 1>crowded population centers, and the capital city is for now

0:30:20.600 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>still uncaptured by Putin. But we'll see. Our next guest

0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 1>says that sympathy for the outnumbered and outgun defenders of

0:30:28.440 --> 0:30:32.920
<v Speaker 1>Kiev has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:36.560
<v Speaker 1>of Russian strategy, and even basis claims from amateur psychoanalysts

0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:40.200
<v Speaker 1>that Putin has lost his mind. Bill Roggio, senior fellow

0:30:40.200 --> 0:30:43.760
<v Speaker 1>at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, joins now to explain, Bill,

0:30:43.800 --> 0:30:46.240
<v Speaker 1>thanks for being with us, Thanks for having me Buck.

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:49.760
<v Speaker 1>So let's just start with what's the latest today with

0:30:49.800 --> 0:30:53.360
<v Speaker 1>the Russian advance. How is this going? Yeah, in the

0:30:53.440 --> 0:30:58.080
<v Speaker 1>north at Kiev, the capitol, Russians are preparing their encirclement

0:30:58.600 --> 0:31:02.000
<v Speaker 1>that could happen within days, and they're preparing to link

0:31:02.080 --> 0:31:04.920
<v Speaker 1>up with I'm seeing I think this is close to happening,

0:31:05.520 --> 0:31:09.680
<v Speaker 1>cutting off two provinces north of Kiev, and that would

0:31:09.920 --> 0:31:14.440
<v Speaker 1>secure the entire border between Ukraine and Russia, as well

0:31:14.480 --> 0:31:17.200
<v Speaker 1>as elders. But more importantly in the south, the city

0:31:17.200 --> 0:31:21.680
<v Speaker 1>of Kerson, which is in the Black Sea on the

0:31:21.720 --> 0:31:24.720
<v Speaker 1>coast of the Black Sea, city of three hundred thousand

0:31:24.720 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 1>people has just fallen to the Russians. The mayor of

0:31:28.360 --> 0:31:32.000
<v Speaker 1>Kerrison said that ten Russian officers have come to the

0:31:32.000 --> 0:31:36.520
<v Speaker 1>building and he's handed over control. The Ukrainian troops have

0:31:36.600 --> 0:31:40.520
<v Speaker 1>retreated to a nearby city, and the Russians continue their advance.

0:31:41.280 --> 0:31:45.800
<v Speaker 1>So let's look at what Biden said last night in

0:31:45.920 --> 0:31:49.600
<v Speaker 1>general about this Russian invasion of Ukraine. I want to

0:31:49.600 --> 0:31:53.640
<v Speaker 1>have your respond to it. Play. Six days ago, Russia's

0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:56.560
<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin sought to shake the very foundations of the

0:31:56.560 --> 0:32:00.560
<v Speaker 1>free world, thanking he could make it bend to his

0:32:00.680 --> 0:32:05.640
<v Speaker 1>menacing ways. But he badly miscalculated. He thought he could

0:32:05.680 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>roll into Ukraine and the world would roll over. Instead,

0:32:09.920 --> 0:32:13.480
<v Speaker 1>he met with a wall of strength he never anticipated

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:18.000
<v Speaker 1>or imagined he met Ukrainian people. Now that he's acted,

0:32:18.680 --> 0:32:22.040
<v Speaker 1>the three Free world is holding him accountable. Putin is

0:32:22.080 --> 0:32:25.680
<v Speaker 1>now isolated from the world more than he has ever been.

0:32:26.480 --> 0:32:30.640
<v Speaker 1>Putin has unleashed violence in chaos, But while he may

0:32:30.720 --> 0:32:34.200
<v Speaker 1>make gains on the battlefield, he'll pay a continuing high

0:32:34.240 --> 0:32:39.640
<v Speaker 1>price over the long run. What's your assessment of Biden

0:32:39.760 --> 0:32:44.400
<v Speaker 1>the Commander in chiefs analysis of Ukraine in that speech. Well,

0:32:44.440 --> 0:32:47.320
<v Speaker 1>you know again, I do agree with the Ukrainian people

0:32:47.360 --> 0:32:50.280
<v Speaker 1>had put up a hell of a fight, but it's

0:32:50.360 --> 0:32:54.080
<v Speaker 1>just not enough. And I think he's overly optimistic. He

0:32:54.200 --> 0:32:56.960
<v Speaker 1>claimed that Russia sought a quick victory. And one of

0:32:57.000 --> 0:32:59.840
<v Speaker 1>the things that I analyzed in that Daily Mail article

0:33:01.040 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 1>is that in fact, the Russians have a plan, and

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:06.760
<v Speaker 1>this is a plan that will take time to execute.

0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:09.960
<v Speaker 1>It's not it was never going to be a quick victory. Um,

0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:14.120
<v Speaker 1>we'll see how how the West, the West and the

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:17.960
<v Speaker 1>international community holds up. Is it willing to do Sanctions

0:33:18.000 --> 0:33:21.000
<v Speaker 1>are easier today, what about next week, next month? What

0:33:21.120 --> 0:33:25.600
<v Speaker 1>about next winner when Germany needs that fifty percent of

0:33:25.600 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 1>its gas comes from Russia. UM. I think this is

0:33:28.440 --> 0:33:31.920
<v Speaker 1>a you know, he is It's not as overly optimistic

0:33:32.000 --> 0:33:35.440
<v Speaker 1>as I expected. Um, it's him to be. I expected

0:33:35.480 --> 0:33:37.520
<v Speaker 1>to hear him say things like the Russians are failing,

0:33:38.240 --> 0:33:41.360
<v Speaker 1>But I think it's this is certainly the best case scenario.

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:45.880
<v Speaker 1>The rosy glasses scenario that he painted. Um. The reality

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:49.360
<v Speaker 1>is the West needed to do far more months prior

0:33:49.400 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 1>to this invasion to both deter the Russians and prepare

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:56.600
<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainians for war that didn't happen. And by the way,

0:33:56.640 --> 0:33:59.320
<v Speaker 1>this does not make him a wartime commander in chief.

0:33:59.360 --> 0:34:02.160
<v Speaker 1>This country is not at war with Russian and does

0:34:02.200 --> 0:34:04.520
<v Speaker 1>not have plans to go to war with Russia. So

0:34:04.720 --> 0:34:06.600
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of reporting on this forty mile long

0:34:06.680 --> 0:34:10.200
<v Speaker 1>Russian military convoy that is on the way to Kiev.

0:34:11.280 --> 0:34:14.279
<v Speaker 1>Is the the basic strategy here that they will be

0:34:14.560 --> 0:34:19.480
<v Speaker 1>deploying soon to just encircle the city and demand the

0:34:19.640 --> 0:34:24.319
<v Speaker 1>government and Zelenski effectively, you know, resign, give up, call

0:34:24.400 --> 0:34:27.680
<v Speaker 1>for surrender. How do you think this plays out? Yeah,

0:34:27.719 --> 0:34:30.759
<v Speaker 1>I think that's exactly right. I think this this formation,

0:34:31.120 --> 0:34:35.640
<v Speaker 1>it's already pushing west, south and west of Kiev, and

0:34:36.040 --> 0:34:40.200
<v Speaker 1>I do believe it is being um It's goal main

0:34:40.280 --> 0:34:43.600
<v Speaker 1>purpose is to surround the city and forced the catipulation

0:34:43.680 --> 0:34:46.280
<v Speaker 1>of the government. I also think that it will look

0:34:46.360 --> 0:34:49.960
<v Speaker 1>to link up with troops that are currently in the

0:34:50.000 --> 0:34:53.439
<v Speaker 1>south and this would split Ukraine in half. This would

0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:56.480
<v Speaker 1>and this really would be endgame. You'd have much of Ukraine,

0:34:56.719 --> 0:35:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Ukraine's military trapped behind enemy lines. If there troops and

0:35:00.440 --> 0:35:03.440
<v Speaker 1>the Caucuses can link up with the troops in Kiev,

0:35:04.040 --> 0:35:07.040
<v Speaker 1>then I really think that we'd be talking end game

0:35:07.120 --> 0:35:10.200
<v Speaker 1>here for Ukraine as a viable state. You might get

0:35:10.200 --> 0:35:14.319
<v Speaker 1>a drop kra Ukrainian state or who may decide to

0:35:14.320 --> 0:35:16.200
<v Speaker 1>take the whole thing and push to the post border.

0:35:16.280 --> 0:35:20.160
<v Speaker 1>That's that's really the next level question there. So how

0:35:20.280 --> 0:35:24.080
<v Speaker 1>much do you think the air campaign, the Russian air

0:35:24.120 --> 0:35:28.480
<v Speaker 1>strikes and also long range artillery strikes, missile strikes is

0:35:28.520 --> 0:35:31.000
<v Speaker 1>going to escalate and play a major role in this

0:35:31.120 --> 0:35:33.399
<v Speaker 1>in the days ahead, Because up to this point there's

0:35:33.440 --> 0:35:38.360
<v Speaker 1>a lot of footage of Russian convoys getting you know,

0:35:38.400 --> 0:35:40.440
<v Speaker 1>getting hit looks like getting hit pretty hard with some

0:35:40.480 --> 0:35:43.000
<v Speaker 1>of those anti tank munitions that the Ukrainians now have

0:35:43.120 --> 0:35:45.920
<v Speaker 1>because of Western partners, and I've been they've been getting

0:35:45.920 --> 0:35:48.759
<v Speaker 1>those for a while. So there is this view that

0:35:48.800 --> 0:35:51.360
<v Speaker 1>people have of, well, it's just going to continue to

0:35:51.400 --> 0:35:54.040
<v Speaker 1>be a hard slog on the ground for the Russians.

0:35:54.880 --> 0:35:56.239
<v Speaker 1>Do you think they're just going to take to the

0:35:56.280 --> 0:35:59.480
<v Speaker 1>air much more heavily and start pounding Ukrainian positions in

0:35:59.480 --> 0:36:02.360
<v Speaker 1>a way that the Ukrainian defenses aren't really able to

0:36:02.360 --> 0:36:05.200
<v Speaker 1>handle at all. Well, I think they can't do that.

0:36:05.239 --> 0:36:07.000
<v Speaker 1>And if they can do that via the air and

0:36:07.160 --> 0:36:11.839
<v Speaker 1>via artillery and rocket rocket munitions as well, I mean, look,

0:36:11.840 --> 0:36:14.279
<v Speaker 1>we just saw a city surrender after a couple of

0:36:14.360 --> 0:36:17.239
<v Speaker 1>days of fighting, to basically surrender without a fight. Do

0:36:17.360 --> 0:36:19.719
<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainians have this kind of fight? By the way,

0:36:19.760 --> 0:36:23.200
<v Speaker 1>the Russians are taking casualties, that's without a doubt. The

0:36:23.280 --> 0:36:26.880
<v Speaker 1>Russian military doctrine is the old Soviet military doctrine. You

0:36:27.040 --> 0:36:29.799
<v Speaker 1>throw a lot of force at it, you expect to

0:36:29.800 --> 0:36:32.040
<v Speaker 1>take losses, but in the end you win. But the

0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians themselves are also being depleted of munitions. Why is

0:36:36.040 --> 0:36:39.799
<v Speaker 1>that convoy, that forty mile long convoy that is just

0:36:39.920 --> 0:36:42.800
<v Speaker 1>north of twenty miles north of Kiev and advancing westward,

0:36:42.840 --> 0:36:44.960
<v Speaker 1>why is that not being strike to The Ukrainians have

0:36:45.040 --> 0:36:48.000
<v Speaker 1>the capability and munitions to do this. The Karrainians are

0:36:48.000 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 1>being bound down as well, you know, And I think

0:36:51.040 --> 0:36:54.560
<v Speaker 1>the example set at curse On maybe one, and particularly

0:36:54.600 --> 0:36:58.160
<v Speaker 1>if the Russians are able to rule a city like

0:36:58.280 --> 0:37:02.160
<v Speaker 1>curse On and not have reprisals against civilians, which I

0:37:02.160 --> 0:37:04.000
<v Speaker 1>don't think is in their interest anyway. They want to

0:37:04.080 --> 0:37:07.360
<v Speaker 1>ruled the country, not dominate and crush it. You know,

0:37:07.360 --> 0:37:09.719
<v Speaker 1>it sends a message to Kiv, the people a Kive

0:37:09.840 --> 0:37:12.440
<v Speaker 1>that you may want to surrender this one. It's you know,

0:37:12.480 --> 0:37:14.480
<v Speaker 1>it's better than being you know, better to live than

0:37:14.520 --> 0:37:17.759
<v Speaker 1>being crushed. What do you think that Putin's strategy looks

0:37:17.800 --> 0:37:21.439
<v Speaker 1>like as it plays out over the Weeks Ahead Bill?

0:37:21.480 --> 0:37:26.399
<v Speaker 1>At this point, I think Putin has calculated that as

0:37:26.400 --> 0:37:29.520
<v Speaker 1>far as sanctions go, that there's probably a time limit

0:37:29.560 --> 0:37:32.440
<v Speaker 1>on these. I think that his calculation. I don't know

0:37:32.800 --> 0:37:37.120
<v Speaker 1>whether he's made the correct calculation or not. Militarily, I

0:37:37.160 --> 0:37:39.480
<v Speaker 1>think that you know what I described earlier, that pushed

0:37:39.480 --> 0:37:42.879
<v Speaker 1>from the south from from Crimea is looking the link

0:37:42.960 --> 0:37:45.960
<v Speaker 1>up with Kiev that'll sever the country and have trap

0:37:46.000 --> 0:37:49.480
<v Speaker 1>a large number of Ukrainian forces. And if Kivan takeover

0:37:49.600 --> 0:37:52.759
<v Speaker 1>Kiev and a couple of major cities and show the

0:37:52.840 --> 0:37:55.720
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian people that you know, the Russians are in control,

0:37:55.800 --> 0:37:58.399
<v Speaker 1>they've won this work, then the only real question is

0:37:58.440 --> 0:38:01.000
<v Speaker 1>does he want the whole country or is he looking

0:38:01.080 --> 0:38:05.000
<v Speaker 1>for a rump state that is neutral or is governed

0:38:05.000 --> 0:38:07.440
<v Speaker 1>by a crony of his I think that's what you know.

0:38:08.000 --> 0:38:09.799
<v Speaker 1>That's what we're looking at here in the next days

0:38:09.800 --> 0:38:13.440
<v Speaker 1>and months. The real big question for me again is

0:38:13.520 --> 0:38:15.520
<v Speaker 1>does he want at all? Or is he happy with

0:38:15.600 --> 0:38:20.359
<v Speaker 1>half of Ukraine and then appliable state to the West Bill.

0:38:21.480 --> 0:38:23.799
<v Speaker 1>What could be done, if anything, to stop that? In

0:38:23.800 --> 0:38:25.880
<v Speaker 1>your mind of this, it's just really all all the

0:38:25.960 --> 0:38:30.440
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians or their outside sanctions, economic activity, economic actions that

0:38:30.440 --> 0:38:34.719
<v Speaker 1>could be taken to make him change his calculation. I

0:38:34.760 --> 0:38:38.640
<v Speaker 1>think short of a NATO military intervention, which I do

0:38:38.719 --> 0:38:41.960
<v Speaker 1>not advocate for, that concreases the risk of direct what

0:38:42.120 --> 0:38:45.040
<v Speaker 1>it would be, direct war with Russia and increases the

0:38:45.120 --> 0:38:47.799
<v Speaker 1>risk of a nuclear war. Short of that, I think

0:38:47.880 --> 0:38:49.719
<v Speaker 1>what you're going to see and I don't can't tell

0:38:49.719 --> 0:38:51.880
<v Speaker 1>you if it takes days, weeks, or months, that the

0:38:51.960 --> 0:38:55.400
<v Speaker 1>Russians will conquer most, if not all, of the Ukraine.

0:38:56.600 --> 0:38:59.960
<v Speaker 1>And I don't think there's sanctions won't stop this, Diplomatic

0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:05.120
<v Speaker 1>actions won't stop this, prevention of flights, Russian flights, things,

0:39:05.120 --> 0:39:07.960
<v Speaker 1>so that that's not enough. Putin has put all of

0:39:08.000 --> 0:39:10.040
<v Speaker 1>his cards on the table. He has gone all in

0:39:10.600 --> 0:39:14.479
<v Speaker 1>on taking Ukraine. He can't turn back now he would

0:39:14.560 --> 0:39:17.120
<v Speaker 1>he would no longer be president of the country. If

0:39:17.160 --> 0:39:21.000
<v Speaker 1>he did, he's playing to win, while I think the

0:39:21.040 --> 0:39:23.800
<v Speaker 1>West is just playing to get a best case scenario

0:39:23.880 --> 0:39:26.640
<v Speaker 1>out of this, get some type of rump Ukrainian government

0:39:26.640 --> 0:39:29.560
<v Speaker 1>out of this. At this point, Bill, I agree with you.

0:39:29.640 --> 0:39:31.960
<v Speaker 1>I think I hope we're both wrong, but I think

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:34.120
<v Speaker 1>you're right. Thanks for being with us as always. Good

0:39:34.120 --> 0:39:38.840
<v Speaker 1>to see. If that's all the time we have for

0:39:38.840 --> 0:39:40.799
<v Speaker 1>this special edition of Hold the Line, like, thank my

0:39:40.880 --> 0:39:43.759
<v Speaker 1>guest Tom Sport, Jim Brooke, and Bill Rogio for sharing

0:39:43.760 --> 0:39:47.000
<v Speaker 1>your expertise. Bill O'Reilly comes up next, Shield Tige