1 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine came as a shock 2 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: to people around the world, but historically speaking, it's nothing new. 3 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: Under Soviet leadership and now Vladimir Putin, Russia has frequently 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: terrorized and invaded sovereign states, violently attempting to force its 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: will on neighboring countries and countries all over the world. 6 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: On this special edition of Hold the Line will take 7 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: a look at Russia's history of aggression from Afghanistan to Ukraine. 8 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the special edition of Hold the Line. I'm 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: Buck Sexton. Look, the Russians are not new to military incursion, 10 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: invasion of other sovereign countries. We understand that this is 11 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: something they've done numerous times. They've gone into Georgia, They've 12 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: already taken Crimea and much of the Donbass region of 13 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: eastern Ukraine. They've also had a military intervention in Syria 14 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: on behalf of the Assad regime. They've gone into Afghanistan 15 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 1: back in the end of the Soviet era as well. 16 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: You'd think they might have learned a very painful and 17 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,839 Speaker 1: high casualty lesson from that, but it turns out their 18 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:19,559 Speaker 1: imperial ambitions continued even after the fall of the Berlin Wall. 19 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 1: Let's take a look at current NATO nations and Russia 20 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: to get a sense of where we stand here. As 21 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: you can see, Russia still views itself as under threat 22 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: from NATO and therefore wants to expand territorially and also 23 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,639 Speaker 1: in terms of its military and economic influence in ways 24 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: to counter what's happening here. Counter the NATO alliance that 25 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: is arrayed was arrayed against the Soviet Union. Back in February, 26 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: Putin gave a speech in which he talked about the 27 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: current situation that's underway here. He said, for thirty years, 28 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement 29 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: with the leading natokas the principles of equal and inviolable 30 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly 31 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: face either cynical deception and lies, or attempts to pressure 32 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: and blackmail. While NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, 33 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: continues to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and 34 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: I repeat, is coming close to our borders. So here's 35 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: Putin trying to explain that he viewsed this, believe it 36 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: or not. He views offensive measures such as what we're 37 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: seeing right now in Ukraine with the war there, but 38 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: also previous offensive measures, whether it's taking the Crimea and 39 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: the Dawn Boss region, the separatist area of Eastern Ukraine, 40 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: Russian backed separatism of course, and also South Ossetia and 41 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: Abkhazia in Georgia. He views all of those maneuvers as 42 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: defensive in nature because they are against the NATO alliance. 43 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: So this is also how he justifies military incursion military 44 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 1: aggression against countries with which he is not at war. 45 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: Putin is claiming and has claimed, including in his speech 46 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 1: in February, that the West took Ukraine hostage. What is 47 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: happening today, he said, does not come out of a 48 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 1: desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the 49 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: Ukrainian people. It is related to the protection of Russia 50 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: itself from those who took Ukraine hostage and are trying 51 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: to use it against our country and its people. This 52 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 1: is fashionating. This is quite a reversal, isn't it. Here 53 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: you have someone who has engaged in multiple acts of 54 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: aggression against military aggression against neighboring countries and does send 55 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: troops around the world when he decides as necessary, including 56 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: to Syria, in order to expand Russian influence at the 57 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: expense of other countries in the region, at the expense 58 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: of movements determined to either out's dictators or achieved freedom, 59 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: or any number of things. He thinks that whether it's 60 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: the incursion into Czechnia, which the Russians engaged in under 61 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: Putin's Putin's leadership, or the various Russian incursions into neighboring 62 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: territory Georgia and Ukraine, most notably, that this is fine, 63 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: that this is actually defensive in nature, because Russia has 64 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: to stand up for itself and its allies. Quite a 65 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: an experience of reverse psychology here. Putin, By the way, 66 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: I also told the West not to intervene in Ukraine, 67 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: and said to anyone who would consider interfering from the outside, 68 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any 69 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: you have faced in history. All the relevant decisions have 70 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: been taken. I hope you hear me. I mean he 71 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: is threatening, certainly major military reprisals against any Western country 72 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: that would try to stop this madness in Ukraine. But 73 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: also in the background, many say he's essentially brandishing his 74 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal in order to back up the military aggression 75 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: that he has engaged in in Ukraine. Where is all 76 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: of this heading. Well, we've certainly seen that Russia has 77 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 1: used previous invasions as a testing ground for both tactics 78 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 1: and the response from NATO and the West and the 79 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: international community. So what can we learn from those previous 80 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: military military decisions that Russia has made to go into 81 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 1: foreign countries? Does that give us some template, some insight 82 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: into where this conflict in Ukraine is headed. That's what 83 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: we're going to address tonight in this special We've got 84 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: a great lineup of experts to give us insight into 85 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: Russia's aggressive military policies. Coming up. It was called the 86 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: Soviet Union's Vietnam Moscow's nineteen seventy nine invasion of Afghanistan 87 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: was devastating and devastating for the Afghan people, but it 88 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: might also have been the final nail in the coffin 89 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: of the Soviet Empire. What do we learn from this? 90 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: Stay with us. On December twenty fourth, nineteen seventy nine, 91 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. That invasion kicked off a 92 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: brutal decade of warfare that would ultimately call as many 93 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 1: as two million lives. According to some estimates, conflict would 94 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 1: also mark the last major military operation of the Soviet Union, 95 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 1: which felt less than three years after the war ended. 96 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: During Now for a closer look at the Soviet invasion 97 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,119 Speaker 1: of Afghanistan, as the director of the Heritage Foundation Center 98 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: from National Defense, retired Army Lieutenant General Tom Sport. Tom, 99 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us, Thanks for having me, bug. Okay, 100 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: So let's just understand first what was the decision making process, 101 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: and given what we're seeing right now with Putin in Ukraine, 102 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 1: might be helpful understand the calculations at the time of 103 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 1: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, what led up to what 104 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: were they trying to achieve? Yeah, and so Afghanistan had 105 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: had a Marxist communist puppet regime if you will, for 106 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: a couple of years prior to their invasion, but that 107 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: regime was kind of under pressure from the Islamist in 108 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and they were actually losing that war. And so 109 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union under that Secretary Braznev starting to get 110 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,159 Speaker 1: the sense that Afghanistan was going to collapse. And was 111 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: that that reading of what was going on in Afghanistan 112 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: that ultimately caused them to choose to intervene in Afghanistan? 113 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: How did it go in the early phase as the 114 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: Soviets ramped up military operations there against the Afghan resistance, 115 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: they clearly had air superiority. I mean, how did the 116 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: military operations look in the early phase of what turned 117 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: into a decade long war. Yeah, the Soviets had initially 118 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: a great success. I guess you would say they dropped 119 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: airborne troops right into the capital Kabul. They were successful 120 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: and finding the guy that was acting as president at 121 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: the time and essentially neutralizing him, taking the reins of power, 122 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: and then capturing the major cities of Afghanistan. So you 123 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: think Kandahar and others, those fell relatively quickly to the Soviets, 124 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: unlike you know what we are seeing in the Ukraine today. 125 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: And so I think you'd have to say that the 126 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: first few months the Soviets had to been happy with 127 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: how things went. Now, what were some of the changing 128 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: the tipping points, if you will, or some of the 129 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 1: momentum shifts that occurred with the Mujahadeen And why was 130 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 1: it that the course of this conflict sort of to 131 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: turn against the Soviets. Yeah, the Mushadean even before the 132 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: Soviets got there were a powerful fighting force. That's you know, 133 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: that is what they do, that's their history. And so 134 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: they were never a cohesive one group of Muhadeen. They 135 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:29,239 Speaker 1: were multiple war lords, but they kind of coalesced, and frankly, 136 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: the Soviet invasion of their country really kind of made 137 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: them have a common enemy that they all gathered around. 138 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: And there were at least eighty eight hundred different Muhahadeen 139 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: bases that they worked out of the support of multiple nations, 140 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: including the United States, the UK, Pakistan, and surprisingly enough 141 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: even at the time, China helped keep the Muhadeen supplied 142 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 1: and they became over time a more and more effective force, 143 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: employing famously Stinger missiles to bring down Soviet hind helicopters 144 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: and the like. So the changing of the advantage that 145 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: the Soviets had from the air specifically, that was I mean, 146 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: this is known to most people as it's depicted in 147 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: the movie Charlie Wilson's War, right that that was actually 148 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: a major tactical shift then away from the complete air 149 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: dominance superiority of the Soviets had had because of those Stingers. Yeah, 150 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: that and plus the Muhadeen really controlled the countryside. So 151 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 1: the Soviets kept and held the major cities, they really 152 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: never lost any of them to the Muchadeen. But the countryside, 153 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: the roads, the connecting roads, those are really under the 154 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: Muhadein's control. And so in a situation like that, you 155 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: can never really consolidate power if you only can venture 156 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: out of the city's in limited situations. So there was 157 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: almost from the start the Soviets were in trouble in 158 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: that invasion. What was the political calculation like for the 159 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: Soviets towards towards the end of it too, It was 160 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: it just purely casualties in a sense that the military 161 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: wasn't going to accomplish the mission of installing a communist 162 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: puppet regime in Cobble. I mean, what brought about the 163 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: end of the conflict, Yeah, a realization that they were 164 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,479 Speaker 1: not winning. They were just it was just a stalemate. 165 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: They had a change of leadership. Corbetchov came in, you know, 166 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: widely viewed as a reformist kind of leader for the 167 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: Soviet Union. He could see that they were spending billions 168 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: of rubles, had spent thousands of lives, and really had 169 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: nothing to show for it, and so like in other areas, 170 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 1: Corbetchov decided to reduce their losses in that area and 171 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: started the withdrawal, I want to say, in around nineteen 172 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: eighty seven and it ended in nineteen eighty nine. Did 173 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: you give us a sense of the kind of suppression 174 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: tactics and the level of brutality that the Soviets willing 175 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: to engage into in military parliamce perhaps pacify to two 176 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: oppress the resistance in Afghanistan? We know there was a 177 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: very high civilian casualty account. What were the tactics that 178 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: the Soviets used, What kind of of tactics and maneuvers 179 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: were they deploying? And the Soviets used what are widely 180 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 1: recognized as war crimes to kind of suppress the Afghans. 181 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: So they slaughtered entire villages that had, you know, had 182 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: the temerity to fight back against the Soviets. They raped 183 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: the women of Afghanistan, they killed millions of Afghans, bombed schools, churches, hospitals, 184 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: and so really the sky is the limit when you 185 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: when you want to think about what went on in 186 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and what they did to the poor people of 187 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: that country. Still unable to break the back of the 188 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 1: resistance though, as we know, and the Soviets had an 189 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: ignominious withdrawal at the end of this. Some say that 190 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union, if not triggered by, 191 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 1: was hastened at least by this failed war, this failed 192 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: military invasion of Afghanistan. What do you say to that. 193 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:04,959 Speaker 1: I think that's very true. And so, you know, we 194 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: think about the big moments, you know, Ronald Reagan saying, 195 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: mister Gorbachev, tear this wall down, and we think about 196 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 1: the Star Wars initiative. I think you have to put 197 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 1: the war in Afghanistan and their failure there and all 198 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: the millions of dollars of rubles they spent there that 199 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: really I think helped to bring down that evil regime. 200 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 1: And as we look today at the situation in Ukraine, 201 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: do you feel that there are lessons learned from the 202 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 1: international community and from the Western Powers about what happened 203 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: to the Soviets in Afghanistan and what should be applied 204 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: now to Ukraine. Yeah, I think there's a lot of lessons. 205 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: There's a lot of similarities, I mean, and there's a 206 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 1: lot of differences to the Soviets thought they were going 207 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: to have great I think initial success in the Ukraine 208 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: and underestimated the resistance there. And you can see the 209 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: same thing playing out again in the Ukraine now, and 210 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: so I think that it's hard for the Ukrainian people. 211 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,719 Speaker 1: I think making a difference. We can't see it now 212 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: because we're so close to the conflict. Now, as we 213 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 1: zoom back and as we see this maybe from a 214 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: little bit more distance, I think we're going to see 215 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: that their bravery is going to make a huge difference. Tenant, Colonel, 216 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: thanks so much for being with us. We appreciate it, sir, 217 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. In nineteen ninety two, a small territory 218 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: known as chechney And declared its independence from the Russian Federation, 219 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 1: a move that would lead to two brutal wars with 220 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 1: Russia and cost thousands of lives. When we come back, 221 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: Jim Brooke of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies 222 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: joins us to give his insight into the Chechen Wars. 223 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: Stay with us. A year after the fall of a 224 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 1: Soviet Union, Chechen, a small territory in Russia's southwestern region, 225 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: declared independence from the Russian Federation. Unlike other republics. At 226 00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: the time, Chechny's independence was rejected by Moscow and would 227 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: spark two wars. Of the course of the next decade 228 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: and a half. Chechen separatists waged a brutal guerrilla war 229 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: against Russian forces, and the wars would ultimately cost tens 230 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: of thousands of Russian and Chechen lives. Join me now 231 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: is Russia Ukraine. Fellow at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies 232 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: and former Moscow bureau chief for Bloomberg Jim Brook. Jim, 233 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us. Thank you so, John. Let's 234 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: start with the first Chechen War, which started in nineteen 235 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: ninety four. What's the background on this and why, for example, 236 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: wouldn't the Russians after the fall of the Soviet Union 237 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: allow cheching us a seed like other territories. Head well, 238 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: Chession is an overwhelmingly Muslim population, a long history of 239 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: mountain guerrillas, fierce fighters, and the Russians are afraid of 240 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: letting Chessnion go because there's a whole swath in Russia. 241 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: It could cut the country and a half that is 242 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: Muslim tartistown, but shorts a stand some of the little 243 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: stands there They happen to be called they're on the Volga, 244 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: and they could literally cut Russia in half. So first 245 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 1: Yeltsen then Putin wanted to send a very clear message 246 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: to the other Islamic majority republics which are inside Russia 247 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: that they were not going to get independence and the 248 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: country would not be cut in half. And so how 249 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: did hostilities begin and what was the so that the 250 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: Russians went in under what pretext into Chechi in nineteen 251 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: ninety four obviously to stop the stop the secession movement there, 252 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: But how how was it in the early days. Obviously 253 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: we're looking at the situation Ukraine now trying to figure 254 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: out if there are any parallels or you know, strategic 255 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: comparisons in dral Yeah, and your video shows terrible parallels. 256 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: It was basically scorched earth. It started off with the 257 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 1: ethnic Chechen members of the Red Army basically formed their 258 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: own army and took their own weapons with them, and 259 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: there was a Chech in general who became president. They 260 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: launched their own war genocide against ethnic Russians, and they 261 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: fought Russia into a stalemate. They got independence recognized by 262 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: virtually nobody. And that brings up to about nineteen ninety 263 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: nine two thousand, when Putin was up for the presidency. 264 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: Then things get very sinister. There were three apartment bombings 265 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: in the Russian part of Russia which killed hundreds of people, 266 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: and the third one they discovered some FSB which is 267 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: the later KGB operatives, basically piling fertilizer into the basement 268 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: of a building. These men were detained arrested. But the 269 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: thinking is that Putin and his FSB cohorts planned these 270 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: terrible apartment bombings, I say, killed hundreds of people to 271 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: rally the country behind him and his tough policies. With Chechia. 272 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: I was sort of in and out of Russia around 273 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: that time. By the time I got there, which is 274 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: two thousand and six, the war was still going on. 275 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 1: And I visited Chesnia Grosny the capitol, in twenty twelve, 276 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: and it was like a disneyland. It was everything was cute. 277 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 1: Avery's rebuilt. There was even a toy Orthodox church. He 278 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: had leveled Grosny, the capital of Chechia. It looked like Stalingrad. 279 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: It had been totally leveled, and then when he got 280 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 1: control again of Chesnia, he rebuilt it. So that's a 281 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: scary parallel that he basically destroyed the capitol and destroyed 282 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,719 Speaker 1: this so called country in order to keep it inside 283 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 1: underneath the Russian umbrella. How did I know? There were 284 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 1: two Chechen conflicts, and we're trying to give at least 285 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 1: some background here on both of them. Everybody watching the 286 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:56,400 Speaker 1: first Chechen War ended, how and why? The church first 287 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: Chester War ended basically with a victory of the guerrillas, 288 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: and Yelson drudgingly kind of gave up, and the gorillas 289 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 1: announced a independent nation which is recognized by virtually nobody, 290 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: and that lasted for two or three years, and then 291 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: the socially when Putin came back, the Russian side to 292 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 1: have another go at it and used even tougher strategies, 293 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: including essentially carpet bombing, really destroying the city. So so 294 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: that would be the second, the second conflict. So let's 295 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: say that the first, the first Chechen incursion into Chechen fails. 296 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 1: Yelson says, all right, and there's a something of a 297 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: day facto independence for chech being during that period, as 298 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: you say, doesn't get everybody to actually recognize in the 299 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 1: international scene. Then Putin takes charge and nineteen ninety nine 300 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 1: again in nineteen ninety nine, they roll in and different tactics. 301 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: What's what's the approach? Well, as I said, it scores 302 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: to earth. Now, the Chechens had a lot of Saudi 303 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: Jahadist money, so they were not orphans. Let's say on 304 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:10,159 Speaker 1: the international scene, they had money and weapons. And I 305 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 1: think one of the Saudi kings threatened several years ago. 306 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: You know, we can turn Cheching it back on a 307 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: centister threat. But to answer your question, bouten one control 308 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 1: of Chechi through very vicious brutal methods scored short. I said, 309 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 1: heavy bombing, tons of civilians were killed and basically batted 310 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 1: them into submission. And when I moved to Moscow in 311 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: two thousand and six, it went on for several more years. 312 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: But there was a huge amount of sensitivity in Russia too, 313 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 1: dead soldiers coming back, and there are these committees and 314 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: mothers of soldiers and the burials were hidden, and they 315 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: really did not want to repeat of Afghanistan, although they 316 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: they lost thousands of men in Chess by all accounts. 317 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: So there are reports right now that there are specific 318 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: Chechen fighters men loyal to catterall right, the authority character 319 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: leader of Czechnia that they're going to be fighting that 320 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: they are fighting in Ukraine. What can you tell us 321 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 1: about that? Well, they're apparently Chechens on both sides. Chechens 322 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 1: are very brutal fighters. Their national sport is wrestling. They 323 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 1: really enjoy fighting. They're natural born fighters, knife fighters, gun fighters. 324 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: And the Chechens who lost the war against Putin have 325 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: either been an exile in Europe or elsewhere and they've 326 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 1: come back to join the Ukrainians. So the Ukrainian government 327 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: has a few Chechens on their side, and then the 328 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: Russian government has said sent Chechens into Ukraine, reportedly to 329 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,959 Speaker 1: assassinate President Zelenski. And we know the Chechens have been 330 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: in the Russian controlled parts of southeastern Ukraine since twenty fourteen. 331 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: Oh further ago, I don't know. There's a very interesting memorial. 332 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 1: The World War Two Museum in Kiev has a section 333 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: to the foreign volunteers Chechens and Georgians who come to 334 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: fight in Ukraine against the Russians. So this is not 335 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 1: totally new that men Chechen and Georgian men looking for 336 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: a chance to shoot Russians would go to Ukraine. Jim, 337 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: we want to come back in a second here and 338 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: talk about Georgia. Stay with us if you would please, 339 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 1: because back in two thousand and eight, Vladimir Putin invaded 340 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 1: the Republic of Georgia using a lot of the same 341 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: pretexts we're seeing here in Ukraine present day. When we 342 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: come back, we'll be rejoined by Jim Brooke, who's going 343 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: to give insight on the Russo Georgian War and how 344 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: some of those tactics are being replayed right now in Ukraine. 345 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 1: Stay with us. Many consider it the first European war 346 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: of the twenty first century. In two thousand and eight, 347 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia, a former Soviet state 348 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: which had achieved independence in nineteen ninety one. The war 349 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: would only last two weeks and had ended with Russia's 350 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: recognition of two regions in Georgia as independent of Khazia 351 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: and South Ossetia. Although these two areas are not internationally recognized, 352 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: they become de facto countries closely aligned with Russia, and 353 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: outcome many believe Vladimir Putin wants to repeat in Ukraine. 354 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: Joining once again is Russia. Ukraine fellow at the Foundation 355 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,159 Speaker 1: for Defensive Democracies and former Moscow Bureau chief for Bloomberg 356 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: Jim Brooke, Jim, thanks so much, Thank you buy And 357 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: I was also the VA Voice American bureau chief in Moscow, 358 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: which brought me to places like Georgia and Grosne, which 359 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: you just mentioned. Indeed, so the Russian invasion of Georgia 360 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: Gym is seen by many today as the most analogous 361 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: to Putin's invasion of Ukraine on a number of levels. 362 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 1: Could he just walk us through what was the pretext 363 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: for Russia's invasion of Georgia. What were the factors at 364 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: play right before and in the run up to this, Yeah, Black, 365 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: very good question. I was in George of the first 366 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: week of the war, just almost by accident, and then 367 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: in the fag of war we really didn't know what 368 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 1: was going on. But now journalists and historians have put 369 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 1: together the TikTok the timeline. What happened was that George W. 370 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: Bush went to the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 371 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 1: and strongly urged Europe to accept Georgia and Ukraine as 372 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: members of NATO. The Germans, of the French and the 373 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: Brits kind of pushed the whole thing off until December. 374 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 1: The Russians got very alarmed and we now know within 375 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: a week started drawing up a plan to invade Georgia. 376 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 1: The same time the Russian Duma, as president putin to 377 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: recognize these two separatist areas of separate republics. I bring 378 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: this up because all this happened again with Ukraine. Then 379 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 1: the Russian railroad troops. When Animajazia reinforced the railroad, which 380 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: and where the Russian railroad troops go, soldiers followed, so 381 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 1: people should have drawn connections there. Then there were two 382 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: weeks of maneuvers just north of the Georgian border. And 383 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: when the maneuvers are over, they left behind a thousand 384 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 1: pieces of equipment. They did not go home. I'm talking 385 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: about armored personnel carriers, tank trucks, chiefs, the sort of thing. 386 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 1: That weekend, and when I was in Georgia that weekend, 387 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: they started to accuse, accused George of genocide, and they 388 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: started to evacuate civilians from South Assetia. And I saw 389 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 1: these hysterical reports out of South Assetia by Russian correspond 390 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: So they were loading women and children on buses and 391 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: sending them up into the safety of Russia. This is 392 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 1: exactly what happened in the last two weeks with Ukraine, 393 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 1: there was the Duma asked Boutin to recognize the separatist 394 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: republics as independent nations. There were maneuvers, the equipment did 395 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: not go home. Boutin accused Georgia, accused Ukraine of genocide, 396 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: and the civilians were evacuated. Then, in the case of Georgia, 397 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: back in August twenty eight, two eight, there's a lot 398 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 1: of cross border shelling, light across line shelling, and that 399 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,199 Speaker 1: was so the warm up. In that case, the president 400 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: of Georgia, Mihail Sakshavili, fell for the bait and he 401 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: actually attacked. You know, it's the mouth of Royty attacked Georgia. 402 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: Georgia attacked Russia, and that led to the Russians whacking 403 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: back very severely, and they poured through the only tunnel 404 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 1: through the Caucass mountains, and they cut Georgia and a 405 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: half Georgia's an east west country, and they cut the railroad, 406 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: they cut the highway, they bombed gory Or the birthplace 407 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 1: of Stalin, and then they started moving east and stopped 408 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: about twenty five miles short of the capitol, which is Tabilisi. 409 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 1: So they did it. Um you can pick nits with 410 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: how the military behave, but they basically took Georgia in 411 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: about ten days, as you say, and then they had 412 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: to sue for peace. So these two j ash sorry, 413 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 1: these two areas of Georgia that were, as I understand it, 414 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 1: largely Russian speaking south pasttia An Abkhazia, they were the 415 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: separate They're the separatist enclaves that was over what over 416 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:54,119 Speaker 1: a decade ago. Now where do those countries or separatist 417 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,119 Speaker 1: enclaves whatever we call them, currently stand. Have they been 418 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: formally absorbed into the Russian Federation. No, they claim to 419 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: be independent countries. And I've visited up Ahazia for Voice 420 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: of America and it was kind of a creepy place 421 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: because the population is half of what it was before 422 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 1: the war. Now, the Georgians had done their own bit 423 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,439 Speaker 1: of ethic cleansing, so they're not totally innocent in this, 424 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 1: but the population of one hundred and fifty thousand compared 425 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 1: to three hundred thousand before the war. It's a beautiful part. 426 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: All these rivers that come down, they're wonderful beaches. It's 427 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:30,679 Speaker 1: it's subtropical, it's lovely, but it's this kind of phony country. 428 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: And I got in hot water with VA and Washington 429 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 1: because I dateline my stories. You know, Sumi or Sakumi Abhazia, 430 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: and they said, Wellias is not a country recognized by 431 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: the United States or anyone in Europe, so you cannot 432 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: put that dateline on your story. So these two areas 433 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 1: continue to claim their independent they have their own flag, 434 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: but they're one subsidized by Russia. The basic extension of 435 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: Russian power south of the Russian border. There are thousands 436 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: of Russian troops primarily station in both places. So is 437 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 1: your expectation then in Ukraine, the Georgia secession or Georgia 438 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: separatist enclave playbook is going to be what the Russian 439 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 1: strategy is, at least in the east, in the dawn 440 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 1: Boss region. I mean, how does that play out in 441 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: your mind? Yeah, but kids already happened in the Duma 442 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 1: recommended that the two separatist regions of Ukraine be recognized 443 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 1: as countries, and Putin did just that last week. He 444 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: recognized these two areas of separate countries, and then he 445 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,640 Speaker 1: made his big invasion like the next day. I don't 446 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: know what's going to happen in Ukraine. My fear, on 447 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: one level, Russia's losing on the ground. My fear is 448 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 1: that Putin will lose patients and come back with the 449 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: air war and flatten a couple of Ukrainian cities to 450 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: give them a lesson, so to speak. Jim, you go ahead, 451 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 1: go ahead, No, I mean this is Boutin did. That's 452 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: one way he won in Zechiam, and it's what he 453 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 1: did more recently in Syria. He flattened much of this 454 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 1: Idlib province without hitting a hospital's, department, buildings, whatever. And 455 00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 1: he is ruthless and has no compunction about killing civilians. 456 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 1: And unless there's a note fly zone over Ukraine, which 457 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: the US you don't really want to do, and it 458 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: would be the US that have to maintain it, he 459 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 1: will be fairly free to bomb the heck out of Ukraine. 460 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 1: Jim Brooke, thanks so much for joining us today. Appreciate 461 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 1: the expertise and perspective. Thank you. In twenty fifteen, is 462 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,520 Speaker 1: Bashar al Assad, president of Syria, fought for his life 463 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 1: during the Syrian Civil War. Russian force is intervened to 464 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: help prop up his regime. We come back. Bill Rogio 465 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 1: of the Foundation for Defensive Democracy stopped by to give 466 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 1: his insight into Russia's intervention in Syria. They right there. 467 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,080 Speaker 1: It's now day seven of the war in Ukraine. Russia 468 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 1: continues to bombard the country with pomps and missiles targeting 469 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 1: crowded population centers, and the capital city is for now 470 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: still uncaptured by Putin. But we'll see. Our next guest 471 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 1: says that sympathy for the outnumbered and outgun defenders of 472 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 1: Kiev has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding 473 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: of Russian strategy, and even basis claims from amateur psychoanalysts 474 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: that Putin has lost his mind. Bill Roggio, senior fellow 475 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, joins now to explain, Bill, 476 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us, Thanks for having me Buck. 477 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 1: So let's just start with what's the latest today with 478 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 1: the Russian advance. How is this going? Yeah, in the 479 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: north at Kiev, the capitol, Russians are preparing their encirclement 480 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: that could happen within days, and they're preparing to link 481 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: up with I'm seeing I think this is close to happening, 482 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 1: cutting off two provinces north of Kiev, and that would 483 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: secure the entire border between Ukraine and Russia, as well 484 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 1: as elders. But more importantly in the south, the city 485 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: of Kerson, which is in the Black Sea on the 486 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 1: coast of the Black Sea, city of three hundred thousand 487 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 1: people has just fallen to the Russians. The mayor of 488 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 1: Kerrison said that ten Russian officers have come to the 489 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: building and he's handed over control. The Ukrainian troops have 490 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: retreated to a nearby city, and the Russians continue their advance. 491 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:45,800 Speaker 1: So let's look at what Biden said last night in 492 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,600 Speaker 1: general about this Russian invasion of Ukraine. I want to 493 00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 1: have your respond to it. Play. Six days ago, Russia's 494 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin sought to shake the very foundations of the 495 00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 1: free world, thanking he could make it bend to his 496 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 1: menacing ways. But he badly miscalculated. He thought he could 497 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,480 Speaker 1: roll into Ukraine and the world would roll over. Instead, 498 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 1: he met with a wall of strength he never anticipated 499 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 1: or imagined he met Ukrainian people. Now that he's acted, 500 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 1: the three Free world is holding him accountable. Putin is 501 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,680 Speaker 1: now isolated from the world more than he has ever been. 502 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 1: Putin has unleashed violence in chaos, But while he may 503 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: make gains on the battlefield, he'll pay a continuing high 504 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: price over the long run. What's your assessment of Biden 505 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 1: the Commander in chiefs analysis of Ukraine in that speech. Well, 506 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 1: you know again, I do agree with the Ukrainian people 507 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: had put up a hell of a fight, but it's 508 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 1: just not enough. And I think he's overly optimistic. He 509 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 1: claimed that Russia sought a quick victory. And one of 510 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,840 Speaker 1: the things that I analyzed in that Daily Mail article 511 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: is that in fact, the Russians have a plan, and 512 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 1: this is a plan that will take time to execute. 513 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: It's not it was never going to be a quick victory. Um, 514 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: we'll see how how the West, the West and the 515 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 1: international community holds up. Is it willing to do Sanctions 516 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 1: are easier today, what about next week, next month? What 517 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 1: about next winner when Germany needs that fifty percent of 518 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 1: its gas comes from Russia. UM. I think this is 519 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: a you know, he is It's not as overly optimistic 520 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 1: as I expected. Um, it's him to be. I expected 521 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: to hear him say things like the Russians are failing, 522 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 1: But I think it's this is certainly the best case scenario. 523 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,880 Speaker 1: The rosy glasses scenario that he painted. Um. The reality 524 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 1: is the West needed to do far more months prior 525 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 1: to this invasion to both deter the Russians and prepare 526 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians for war that didn't happen. And by the way, 527 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 1: this does not make him a wartime commander in chief. 528 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 1: This country is not at war with Russian and does 529 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 1: not have plans to go to war with Russia. So 530 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: there's a lot of reporting on this forty mile long 531 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: Russian military convoy that is on the way to Kiev. 532 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,279 Speaker 1: Is the the basic strategy here that they will be 533 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: deploying soon to just encircle the city and demand the 534 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:24,319 Speaker 1: government and Zelenski effectively, you know, resign, give up, call 535 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,680 Speaker 1: for surrender. How do you think this plays out? Yeah, 536 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 1: I think that's exactly right. I think this this formation, 537 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: it's already pushing west, south and west of Kiev, and 538 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 1: I do believe it is being um It's goal main 539 00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 1: purpose is to surround the city and forced the catipulation 540 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,280 Speaker 1: of the government. I also think that it will look 541 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 1: to link up with troops that are currently in the 542 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,439 Speaker 1: south and this would split Ukraine in half. This would 543 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 1: and this really would be endgame. You'd have much of Ukraine, 544 00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 1: Ukraine's military trapped behind enemy lines. If there troops and 545 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 1: the Caucuses can link up with the troops in Kiev, 546 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 1: then I really think that we'd be talking end game 547 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: here for Ukraine as a viable state. You might get 548 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 1: a drop kra Ukrainian state or who may decide to 549 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,200 Speaker 1: take the whole thing and push to the post border. 550 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 1: That's that's really the next level question there. So how 551 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 1: much do you think the air campaign, the Russian air 552 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:28,480 Speaker 1: strikes and also long range artillery strikes, missile strikes is 553 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,000 Speaker 1: going to escalate and play a major role in this 554 00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,399 Speaker 1: in the days ahead, Because up to this point there's 555 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 1: a lot of footage of Russian convoys getting you know, 556 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,440 Speaker 1: getting hit looks like getting hit pretty hard with some 557 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 1: of those anti tank munitions that the Ukrainians now have 558 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,920 Speaker 1: because of Western partners, and I've been they've been getting 559 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 1: those for a while. So there is this view that 560 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,360 Speaker 1: people have of, well, it's just going to continue to 561 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: be a hard slog on the ground for the Russians. 562 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 1: Do you think they're just going to take to the 563 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 1: air much more heavily and start pounding Ukrainian positions in 564 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 1: a way that the Ukrainian defenses aren't really able to 565 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 1: handle at all. Well, I think they can't do that. 566 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 1: And if they can do that via the air and 567 00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:11,839 Speaker 1: via artillery and rocket rocket munitions as well, I mean, look, 568 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 1: we just saw a city surrender after a couple of 569 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 1: days of fighting, to basically surrender without a fight. Do 570 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians have this kind of fight? By the way, 571 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 1: the Russians are taking casualties, that's without a doubt. The 572 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,880 Speaker 1: Russian military doctrine is the old Soviet military doctrine. You 573 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,799 Speaker 1: throw a lot of force at it, you expect to 574 00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 1: take losses, but in the end you win. But the 575 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 1: Ukrainians themselves are also being depleted of munitions. Why is 576 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,799 Speaker 1: that convoy, that forty mile long convoy that is just 577 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,800 Speaker 1: north of twenty miles north of Kiev and advancing westward, 578 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,960 Speaker 1: why is that not being strike to The Ukrainians have 579 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,000 Speaker 1: the capability and munitions to do this. The Karrainians are 580 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 1: being bound down as well, you know, And I think 581 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 1: the example set at curse On maybe one, and particularly 582 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 1: if the Russians are able to rule a city like 583 00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 1: curse On and not have reprisals against civilians, which I 584 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 1: don't think is in their interest anyway. They want to 585 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,360 Speaker 1: ruled the country, not dominate and crush it. You know, 586 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 1: it sends a message to Kiv, the people a Kive 587 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,440 Speaker 1: that you may want to surrender this one. It's you know, 588 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,480 Speaker 1: it's better than being you know, better to live than 589 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,759 Speaker 1: being crushed. What do you think that Putin's strategy looks 590 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:21,439 Speaker 1: like as it plays out over the Weeks Ahead Bill? 591 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:26,399 Speaker 1: At this point, I think Putin has calculated that as 592 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 1: far as sanctions go, that there's probably a time limit 593 00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 1: on these. I think that his calculation. I don't know 594 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:37,120 Speaker 1: whether he's made the correct calculation or not. Militarily, I 595 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 1: think that you know what I described earlier, that pushed 596 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,879 Speaker 1: from the south from from Crimea is looking the link 597 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 1: up with Kiev that'll sever the country and have trap 598 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:49,480 Speaker 1: a large number of Ukrainian forces. And if Kivan takeover 599 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 1: Kiev and a couple of major cities and show the 600 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,720 Speaker 1: Ukrainian people that you know, the Russians are in control, 601 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,399 Speaker 1: they've won this work, then the only real question is 602 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 1: does he want the whole country or is he looking 603 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,000 Speaker 1: for a rump state that is neutral or is governed 604 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,440 Speaker 1: by a crony of his I think that's what you know. 605 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:09,799 Speaker 1: That's what we're looking at here in the next days 606 00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: and months. The real big question for me again is 607 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 1: does he want at all? Or is he happy with 608 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:20,359 Speaker 1: half of Ukraine and then appliable state to the West Bill. 609 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,799 Speaker 1: What could be done, if anything, to stop that? In 610 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,880 Speaker 1: your mind of this, it's just really all all the 611 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:30,440 Speaker 1: Ukrainians or their outside sanctions, economic activity, economic actions that 612 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:34,719 Speaker 1: could be taken to make him change his calculation. I 613 00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:38,640 Speaker 1: think short of a NATO military intervention, which I do 614 00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,960 Speaker 1: not advocate for, that concreases the risk of direct what 615 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,040 Speaker 1: it would be, direct war with Russia and increases the 616 00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,799 Speaker 1: risk of a nuclear war. Short of that, I think 617 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,719 Speaker 1: what you're going to see and I don't can't tell 618 00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,880 Speaker 1: you if it takes days, weeks, or months, that the 619 00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 1: Russians will conquer most, if not all, of the Ukraine. 620 00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 1: And I don't think there's sanctions won't stop this, Diplomatic 621 00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:05,120 Speaker 1: actions won't stop this, prevention of flights, Russian flights, things, 622 00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,960 Speaker 1: so that that's not enough. Putin has put all of 623 00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,040 Speaker 1: his cards on the table. He has gone all in 624 00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:14,479 Speaker 1: on taking Ukraine. He can't turn back now he would 625 00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 1: he would no longer be president of the country. If 626 00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 1: he did, he's playing to win, while I think the 627 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,800 Speaker 1: West is just playing to get a best case scenario 628 00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 1: out of this, get some type of rump Ukrainian government 629 00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,560 Speaker 1: out of this. At this point, Bill, I agree with you. 630 00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 1: I think I hope we're both wrong, but I think 631 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,120 Speaker 1: you're right. Thanks for being with us as always. Good 632 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:38,840 Speaker 1: to see. If that's all the time we have for 633 00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,799 Speaker 1: this special edition of Hold the Line, like, thank my 634 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,759 Speaker 1: guest Tom Sport, Jim Brooke, and Bill Rogio for sharing 635 00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,000 Speaker 1: your expertise. Bill O'Reilly comes up next, Shield Tige