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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day
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Speaker 2: our will catch er. We're seen as Shower of Principal
Speaker 2: ASSEM Management with stocks at record highs, Edmill's of Raymond
Speaker 2: James as Canada and Mexico respond to Trump's tariff threads,
Speaker 2: and Wendy Steward of Bank for America on the outlook
Speaker 2: for commercial banking. We begin this sour with stocks at
Speaker 2: all time highs, investors looking ahead to pay rolls to
Speaker 2: CPI and the last FED decision of the year. Same
Speaker 2: as Shower of Principal ASSA Management, saying come early twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five rather than rece you've seen policy rates at
Speaker 2: each meeting, the FED is likely to slow it's coming
Speaker 2: pace to every other meeting, with some risks that rates
Speaker 2: don't fall as far as either the FED or the
Speaker 2: market had originally envisioned. Saman joined just now for more Samoa,
Speaker 2: welcome back and it's good to see you as always.
Speaker 2: How problematic do you expect that to be to equities?
Speaker 3: Well, actually, I don't.
Speaker 4: Know if it's going to be that problematic, but equities,
Speaker 4: I think the key thing that equities need is the
Speaker 4: strong growth and almost a FED put so. Where it
Speaker 4: becomes really challenging, though, is if inflation starts to become
Speaker 4: a little bit more concerning and then the FED doesn't
Speaker 4: cut race it's far because they're worried about inflation expectations increasing.
Speaker 4: That I think would be the flying the ointment for equities.
Speaker 4: But otherwise I'm going to add to the masses. I'm
Speaker 4: pretty positive about next year.
Speaker 2: Really positive about next year for the US and Europe,
Speaker 2: or just the US, because all I've heard is the US, US,
Speaker 2: US and Europe's kind of been left in a dust.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the story for Europe has got even
Speaker 4: worse in the last couple of weeks. Use exceptionalism was
Speaker 4: the story for this year. It's going to be the
Speaker 4: story for next year, even more so now that we've
Speaker 4: got the election behind US and Europe it was already
Speaker 4: struggling with weak fundamentals.
Speaker 3: The economy is already struggling.
Speaker 4: We've already seen evidence it now services is joy manufacturing
Speaker 4: in that cooling period. So I think it's a challenging
Speaker 4: period for Europe and certainly for US. It's more about
Speaker 4: US secrities in Europe. I think there are opportunities in
Speaker 4: other parts of the world, some segments in Asia, various pockets,
Speaker 4: but overall, I think this is going to be another
Speaker 4: year where you see continued strength for the US.
Speaker 5: Seem Can you quantify how much you're sort of doubling
Speaker 5: down on this bet that the United States is going
Speaker 5: to be the bright spot and that Europe is going
Speaker 5: to be even worse than it was this year.
Speaker 3: I think that Europe.
Speaker 4: I think the thing that we're trying to watch as
Speaker 4: well is we have to keep in eye those technicals.
Speaker 3: We're a sentiment.
Speaker 4: We do think that sentiment is getting incredibly negative about Europe.
Speaker 4: As you've just said, everyone is joining in to that
Speaker 4: massive US over Europe and becoming very, very negative on
Speaker 4: that side, valuations value attractive figure. So it could be
Speaker 4: that you just need a slight improvement in the outlook
Speaker 4: for Europe, some kind of upside surprises with regards to
Speaker 4: the economy. Maybe the ECB really stepping in and starting
Speaker 4: to improve expect investor expectations, and that could be enough
Speaker 4: to shift that needle vicinity. At this stage, it's quite
Speaker 4: difficult to see that coming through.
Speaker 5: There's a question more about whether you can bet at
Speaker 5: least in European bonds at the same time that you
Speaker 5: bet on American exceptionalism, because you can imagine the ECB
Speaker 5: is going to have to cut rates more aggressively and
Speaker 5: if there is some sort of downturn that could be
Speaker 5: some sort of have in trade. Do you believe that
Speaker 5: that is the correct way to go or do you
Speaker 5: think that that is premature at a time where the
Speaker 5: bond vigilantes seem to be having their pens and papers
Speaker 5: out for the likes of France.
Speaker 4: Well, I think, as it is always the case with you,
Speaker 4: you can't just look at Europus as one entity. There's
Speaker 4: so many different entities which are very different disparant that
Speaker 4: in that region overall, Yes, the ECB is going to
Speaker 4: be cutting rates far more aggressively than the US, and
Speaker 4: think the would be a fifty basis pointcut thrown in
Speaker 4: there at some point in twenty twenty five, and they're
Speaker 4: going to be reducing rates below neutral, whereas a FED
Speaker 4: is going to get maybe a little bit close to neutral,
Speaker 4: but probably not below.
Speaker 3: So there is reason to have that overweight to European
Speaker 3: sovereigns rather than the US. But as you said, you have.
Speaker 4: To be really careful and keeping an eye on what
Speaker 4: is going on with the budget deficits in every country
Speaker 4: that we're looking at. I think is going to be
Speaker 4: a key thing for next year because you know, we
Speaker 4: talk about FED policy uncertainty all the time, but there's
Speaker 4: so much on the government policy side with As you said,
Speaker 4: bond vigilante is really something to gear up and keep
Speaker 4: an eye on what's going on in different countries. We've
Speaker 4: already seen it in the UK, we've seen some idea
Speaker 4: of it within the US, and clearly is coming through
Speaker 4: in France as well. So I think that is going
Speaker 4: to be a key conversation for all the countries for
Speaker 4: next year.
Speaker 5: Which is the question Siema about whether the correct trade
Speaker 5: on American exceptionalism is with the small caps, given the
Speaker 5: fact that they seven most leverage to the potential of
Speaker 5: bond vigilantes just peeking out the window in the United States,
Speaker 5: even that alone would be enough to potentially some other valuations.
Speaker 4: Well, look, I think a small cap the run it's
Speaker 4: hand so far is really about valuations.
Speaker 3: It's still due for that catchup.
Speaker 4: Try so it's catching up with a large cap, and
Speaker 4: it's attractive valuations. But as you were saying before, you
Speaker 4: know small caps small businesses, they have a really significant
Speaker 4: exposure to floating rate debt. So if you're not going
Speaker 4: to see very significant rate cuts coming through next year,
Speaker 4: maybe because of increased inflation concerns, then that's going to
Speaker 4: be a fly and the oapment for small caps.
Speaker 3: So I think that you can run through for a
Speaker 3: little bit long for small caps.
Speaker 4: But once valuations start to look a little bit less attractive,
Speaker 4: and certainly from a relative standpoint, where a large cap
Speaker 4: does continue to look more attractive, and then I think
Speaker 4: the small cap agenda starts to really become a little
Speaker 4: bit more a little bit more unattractive.
Speaker 2: New question for the office quiz over the Christmas holiday period,
Speaker 2: do you want the new question. Yeah, please, what's the
Speaker 2: dag's done in twenty twenty four. I'm not going to
Speaker 2: put you on the spot and make you answer that.
Speaker 2: See me show the DACK so far this year? Is
Speaker 2: that by more than eighteen percent? And as we speak
Speaker 2: about how bad Europe is, the DAX is at all
Speaker 2: time highs. Sema Beg's the question, what is the dak's
Speaker 2: doing a record highs? If things are so bad in
Speaker 2: Europe and things aren't great in China either.
Speaker 4: It's a great question, and I think this is a
Speaker 4: key thing for investors to remember. Is it look from
Speaker 4: a relative standpoint, Yes, it's going to be big differences
Speaker 4: and these going to look more attractive. But if the
Speaker 4: US market is doing well, it does tend to carry
Speaker 4: most markets with it, so there will be opportunities globally.
Speaker 4: And I think when we're going into twenty twenty five,
Speaker 4: we so much uncertain team from a policy perspective, especially
Speaker 4: now with the new Trump administration coming in, it does
Speaker 4: make sense to have that global divestification. Are still our
Speaker 4: preference is still for Europe, but we do think that
Speaker 4: there's opportunities outside of US as well, so you do
Speaker 4: get to have some diversification, some exposure to different markets too.
Speaker 2: It's the bank's Bramo Commerce Bank Deutsche Bank yesterday perform
Speaker 2: really well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, how much is this.
Speaker 5: A catch up trade? How much is this because there
Speaker 5: is this bed on rate cuts? And how much is
Speaker 5: it because the likes of Deutsche Bank have expanded dramatically
Speaker 5: outside of Europe. So it sort of goes to Sima's
Speaker 5: point that if they have some sort of footprint outside
Speaker 5: of Europe, they can benefit even if they're listed on
Speaker 5: the decks.
Speaker 2: It's good to hear from your same as Shambare Principal
Speaker 2: Asset Management on the path forward into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: But here's the exist on that front. Fresh off of
Speaker 2: visits and Mari Lanago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promising
Speaker 2: to increase border enforcement to try and avoid tariffs, Mexican
Speaker 2: President Claudia Schambaum also saying she's confident she can reach
Speaker 2: a deal with President Trump. At Mills of Raema, James,
Speaker 2: John just now for more at Mills, what does that
Speaker 2: deal actually look like?
Speaker 6: Well, I think John, it's a question do we pull
Speaker 6: forward some of that renegotiation of the USMCA, which is
Speaker 6: due to be renegotiated in twenty twenty six. I think
Speaker 6: it is clear that there's going to have to be
Speaker 6: significant increases in border related items. We see that Donald
Speaker 6: Trump is going to lead off after he's inaugurated with
Speaker 6: a number of immigration related issues. I do think, as
Speaker 6: it relates to both Canada and Mexico, a lot of
Speaker 6: changes to the way in which tariffs are done on autos,
Speaker 6: and probably a huge push towards protecting the US auto industry,
Speaker 6: especially visa each China. And I think what it really
Speaker 6: comes down to, especially as it relates to Mexico, is
Speaker 6: that US tariff policy. John states that you put a
Speaker 6: tariff on where a product is finished. China knows that
Speaker 6: China is moving a lot of production into Mexico and
Speaker 6: then is able to bring things into the United States
Speaker 6: TIF free. That's known as the Mexico backdoor. Donald Trump
Speaker 6: is going to want to make sure that Mexico backdoor
Speaker 6: is fully closed.
Speaker 2: And there is a lot of people are listening to
Speaker 2: what you say, they heard from the President in the
Speaker 2: last week, and they just believe that the tariffs that
Speaker 2: he's threatening are credible threats because he won't follow through
Speaker 2: on them. Pitychev Academy right over the weekend. Consensus is,
Speaker 2: right now, this is just a bargaining chip, bring him
Speaker 2: to the table that've come to the table and maybe
Speaker 2: get a little bit of something count from them. They
Speaker 2: don't think he's going to follow through. Do your client
Speaker 2: see it quite the same way yet, John.
Speaker 1: I think that's probably right.
Speaker 6: I was kind of going through this yesterday thinking that
Speaker 6: when I wrote the note last week about the tweet
Speaker 6: on the twenty five percent tariffs that could be coming,
Speaker 6: there wasn't the same market reaction that we saw back
Speaker 6: twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one during Trump one point zero.
Speaker 6: I think that there is a long list of tariffs
Speaker 6: that were proposed against Mexico, in particular during his first
Speaker 6: term that never were followed through. So right now, I
Speaker 6: think that the market would be surprised to the extent
Speaker 6: that these go into effect. The thing that I am watching,
Speaker 6: especially as it relates to Mexico, is that I think
Speaker 6: there's a personality clash between Donald Trump and Mexican President
Speaker 6: Claudia Steinbaum ready to happen, and I think that is
Speaker 6: probable the wild card to watch. She's going to be
Speaker 6: much more forceful in protecting Mexico and Donald Trump is
Speaker 6: going to be also much more forceful on immigration in
Speaker 6: his second term than he was in his first term,
Speaker 6: and as that personality clash pays out, I think there's
Speaker 6: a higher probability for some of these tariffs to go
Speaker 6: into place, at least temporarily. He's talked about using some
Speaker 6: dormant authorities that the President has not been using in
Speaker 6: the past that can put on temporarily terrorists up to
Speaker 6: fifteen percent without Congress, without an investigation on day one,
Speaker 6: if he wants to do it.
Speaker 5: And can you take that a step further in terms
Speaker 5: of what we've learned from some of the recent conversations
Speaker 5: or at least the readouts and the contradictory readouts from
Speaker 5: Mexican head Claudia Scheinbaum and Donald Trump, as well as
Speaker 5: the recent meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. How
Speaker 5: much is this just Donald Trump testing different leaders' abilities
Speaker 5: and willingness to come kiss the ring versus actual policy prescription,
Speaker 5: and at this point before he even enters the White House.
Speaker 1: Now, at least I think you are right.
Speaker 6: I do think that this is a testing the waters
Speaker 6: phase of this. I do think that the readouts have
Speaker 6: to be taken with a grain of salt. Donald Trump
Speaker 6: is not using kind of the traditional ways in which
Speaker 6: we deal with diplomacy, not getting the State Department involved.
Speaker 6: We all know that, so kind of each president is
Speaker 6: able to put out their own kind of message as
Speaker 6: it relates to Donald Trump or Claudia Scheinbaum. Justin Trudeau
Speaker 6: as Prime Minister is able to put out whatever he
Speaker 6: thinks that is necessary. But I don't necessarily think that
Speaker 6: this is something that you tested out, get some changes
Speaker 6: to clear victory and move on the issues that he's
Speaker 6: talking about, and then you put into play some of
Speaker 6: the personnel picks. Howard Lutnik at Commerce going to be
Speaker 6: very aggressive on tariff's. Jamison Greer, who is going to
Speaker 6: be the pick for US Trade Representative. One of the
Speaker 6: reasons Donald Trump picked him is he's going to be
Speaker 6: much more willing to be more aggressive with some of
Speaker 6: those authorities that I've discussed than Bob Litthheiser. So I
Speaker 6: understand the reluctance to over index or over expect that
Speaker 6: this is going to happen on day one, But tariffs
Speaker 6: are coming. It is going to be volatile, and we
Speaker 6: have to expect the unexpected when we think about Trump
Speaker 6: two point zero for this market and how many.
Speaker 5: Of these nominees are actually going to get through at
Speaker 5: a time where we have a lot of clashes between
Speaker 5: already John Thune, who is the head of the Senate
Speaker 5: Leadership for Republicans, and at least one or two of
Speaker 5: these candidates.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I was looking at the ones that you've
Speaker 6: put up on your screen. I think most, if not all,
Speaker 6: of the picks for Treasury Secretary, US Trade Representative Howard
Speaker 6: Latnik more likely than not to get confirmed. FBI director
Speaker 6: a big question mark, the Defense Secretary, big question mark,
Speaker 6: Health and Human Services in the area at Raymond James
Speaker 6: that we've been getting a lot of question more of
Speaker 6: a question mark, but in that toss up category. So
Speaker 6: Donald Trump with fifty three votes in the Senate and
Speaker 6: it only takes fifty to get the nominee confirmed, far
Speaker 6: more than would normally get confirmed if we had the
Speaker 6: old sixty vote majority that was required in the Senate.
Speaker 6: Get confirmed, Donald Trump will have a cabinet that he wants.
Speaker 6: There will be some exceptions, but for the most part,
Speaker 6: been telling clients expect the vast majority of these nominees
Speaker 6: to be sitting in their posts sooner rather than later.
Speaker 5: Lisa, you whi ed, we do still have a sitting president,
Speaker 5: and he occasionally tries to remind us of that. The
Speaker 5: latest coming out with some new restrictions on Chinese semiconductors,
Speaker 5: in particular having to do with AI memory and tools
Speaker 5: to build the high end chips. How much How do
Speaker 5: you interpret this basically, some of the actions that we're
Speaker 5: seeing out of the White House now at a time
Speaker 5: where a lot of people have almost discounted current President
Speaker 5: Joe Biden.
Speaker 6: So as it related to tech restrictions, Lisa, I've been
Speaker 6: telling clients at Raymond James, this is bipartisan. This is
Speaker 6: something that the Biden administration picked up the torch from
Speaker 6: Trump one point zero and accelerated that during his term.
Speaker 6: We will get these restrictions out during the Biden term,
Speaker 6: but they probably go even further during the Trump term.
Speaker 6: The restrictions that we're discussing this morning are restrictions that
Speaker 6: have been in the hopper for months. The Biden administration
Speaker 6: has been working with the Netherlands in Japan trying to
Speaker 6: get a trilateral deal. There are some differences in the
Speaker 6: way in which the United States, the Dutch, and the
Speaker 6: Japanese enforce these tech restrictions. That is an unfeared issue
Speaker 6: for US companies. The expansion is about making sure that
Speaker 6: China doesn't engage in what has been a game of
Speaker 6: whack a mole, where as soon as we put on restrictions,
Speaker 6: they either move production to a new country or they
Speaker 6: establish new companies that are not on restricted lists. I
Speaker 6: am anticipating that the administration tries to tighten up that
Speaker 6: game of wackamle. The big question to me for clients
Speaker 6: is how much of a hammer does Donald Trump come
Speaker 6: after that next year and tries to end that game
Speaker 6: of whacka mall and has much more restrictive, you know,
Speaker 6: changes to semiicap equipment going into China, especially on legacy
Speaker 6: equipment during his second term.
Speaker 2: It's a big question for all of us going into
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. And Mills of Raymond James ed thank you, sir.
Speaker 2: Just check out the picture of Donald Trump President Alec's
Speaker 2: economic team. And let's go through the names, and we'll
Speaker 2: talk about the name that's not there. How's it? A
Speaker 2: Nec Jamison Greer, US trade representative Scott Best and a Treasury.
Speaker 2: How would Lutnik a commace. The market was very worried
Speaker 2: at one point about Ambassador Lightheiser going into the cabinet
Speaker 2: again but maybe becoming Treasury secretary, maybe ending up for
Speaker 2: anyc The reporting from Axios side for the weekend almost
Speaker 2: reinforced by Ed Knows there from Raymond James, Well, Claudia,
Speaker 2: welcome to the program. I think we should start there
Speaker 2: the supply side of the economy and how much of
Speaker 2: the hard work that's been doing so far over the
Speaker 2: course of twenty twenty four and why it leaves the
Speaker 2: federal Reserve as it thinks about twenty twenty five and beyond.
Speaker 7: All right, well, it is so important that we don't
Speaker 7: just look at a GDP number and say, oh, it's
Speaker 7: almost three percent and move along.
Speaker 1: We need to stop and what is going on? Why
Speaker 1: is growth so good? Are we overheating?
Speaker 7: If we're overheating, then the FED steps in the raise rates,
Speaker 7: they cool things down.
Speaker 1: That is not what's happening. We have seen a real
Speaker 1: pickup and growth.
Speaker 7: Remember we were promised a recepsion and we got an acceleration,
Speaker 7: and we've seen for two years running now almost three
Speaker 7: percent growth and a lot of that, if you look
Speaker 7: under the hood, is coming from.
Speaker 1: Productivity, and that is the holy grail.
Speaker 7: Of economic prosperity, and we should be spending a lot
Speaker 7: of time trying to figure out exactly how did we
Speaker 7: get to this place that we've seen a pickup and
Speaker 7: growth and this is something us is seeing in our
Speaker 7: peer countries are not.
Speaker 1: So it's a really important question to dig into.
Speaker 5: Claudia, given that people believe in yourself is as one
Speaker 5: of them, that this is becoming a productivity story. Does
Speaker 5: this mean that from your perspective, it's not inflationary, that
Speaker 5: it doesn't necessarily preclude the fetter reserve from cutting in
Speaker 5: a couple weeks time.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 7: Inflation happens when demand is outstripping supply.
Speaker 1: That's the one O one. There's more to it.
Speaker 7: But in general, if we have too much demand and
Speaker 7: not enough supply, then we're going to get price increases
Speaker 7: to kind of you know, make the market work. But
Speaker 7: if we can get more supply in there, and that
Speaker 7: is the lesson. We did not get the big disinflation
Speaker 7: without a recession without this supply side help. And we
Speaker 7: got it not just from supply chains. We got it
Speaker 7: from workers coming online, and we also got this kick
Speaker 7: of getting people in more productive positions, getting more capital
Speaker 7: in their hands to do their jobs, and like that
Speaker 7: was such the way to solve the problem of the
Speaker 7: high inflation. Well, that's not the only problem that a
Speaker 7: good supply side solves. It also can really help us
Speaker 7: thinking about growth over the long term.
Speaker 1: But we got to get out.
Speaker 7: Of our head that it's like all growth and the
Speaker 7: FED does interest rates Like productivity is a really tough
Speaker 7: nut to crack, and it actually is not primarily about
Speaker 7: the Federal Reserve.
Speaker 5: Claudia, How does Fedshair J. Powell message this at a
Speaker 5: time when he is going to be speaking on Wednesday
Speaker 5: at a moderated conversation ahead of a time where inevitably,
Speaker 5: as we've been caring from a host of analysts, the
Speaker 5: FED is likely to revise a lot of its projections
Speaker 5: with inflation going up, with unemployment going down, and with
Speaker 5: growth also going up, given the fact that you have
Speaker 5: seen those upside surprises to growth.
Speaker 7: Pale has made a real effort on this, and I
Speaker 7: would just kind of tell him to double down on it.
Speaker 1: He said multiple times the FED doesn't have.
Speaker 7: A growth mandate, but that's a kind of a wishy
Speaker 7: washy say way of saying that sometimes when growth is high,
Speaker 7: the FED needs to step in, and sometimes when growth
Speaker 7: is high, the FED needs to get out of the way.
Speaker 1: And this is one of.
Speaker 7: Those times where the FED needs to get out of
Speaker 7: the way because it is there's productivity there and high
Speaker 7: interest rates being unnecessarily restrictive on the economy relative the
Speaker 7: dual mandate, it has costs. This high growth is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately.
Speaker 7: That is the thing about productivity that we have learned
Speaker 7: from the past is yeah, sometimes we get it and
Speaker 7: holding on to it is what is really hard. So like,
Speaker 7: we should not be taking this lightly that we've got
Speaker 7: this kind of growth, pick up this productivity renaissance. The
Speaker 7: question should be what can all policy makers and frankly
Speaker 7: a lot of these lovers are not with the feather
Speaker 7: with fiscal or other government authorities, but like, what levers
Speaker 7: can we pull to keep this going? And how Continuing
Speaker 7: to go back to his dual mandate of the price
Speaker 7: stability and the labor market, the maximum employment, I think
Speaker 7: is important because the more we've dug into and research
Speaker 7: with this productivity boom, it goes back to the labor
Speaker 7: market the dynamic labor market is very much tied back
Speaker 7: to the dynamic economy.
Speaker 1: The higher productivity.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the libor folk growth that we've seen, Claudia,
Speaker 2: and I wonder for your perspective whether you think is
Speaker 2: distorted the Fed's understanding of the influence that they actually
Speaker 2: have of inflation.
Speaker 7: This is I think the FED has been very humble
Speaker 7: and open to the fact that there's a lot that's
Speaker 7: going on with inflation that we don't understand, and I
Speaker 7: think they have been probably clearer than a lot of
Speaker 7: the people watching the FED that their tools have been
Speaker 7: not they're limited, right, There's a lot of dynamics of
Speaker 7: inflation that had to do a supply side that are
Speaker 7: not primarily about the FED. The FED does have a
Speaker 7: mandate with inflation. They have stepped in. They do need
Speaker 7: to pay attention and when we see, you know, inflation
Speaker 7: picking up, they would step back in. So it's not
Speaker 7: that the FED is out of the picture with inflation.
Speaker 7: I think they have tried hard to make it a
Speaker 7: more nuanced conversation. Nuance is tough, right, but they just
Speaker 7: they can't give up on this, and I think this
Speaker 7: balancing the two sides of the mandate and just saying hey,
Speaker 7: this is not about growth. High growth does not mean
Speaker 7: we need to hike. High growth does not mean that
Speaker 7: we have no reason to cut. It's our dual mandate
Speaker 7: and the growth. This conversation is a separate piece of
Speaker 7: this Lord, if we have to look under the hood.
Speaker 2: We enjoyed this conversation. It's going to see you as always, Cordia,
Speaker 2: sound there a new century Advisors, Laudia, thank you. This
Speaker 2: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics,
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