1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Tell me up this 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 2: our will catch er. We're seen as Shower of Principal 11 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: ASSEM Management with stocks at record highs, Edmill's of Raymond 12 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 2: James as Canada and Mexico respond to Trump's tariff threads, 13 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: and Wendy Steward of Bank for America on the outlook 14 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: for commercial banking. We begin this sour with stocks at 15 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: all time highs, investors looking ahead to pay rolls to 16 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 2: CPI and the last FED decision of the year. Same 17 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: as Shower of Principal ASSA Management, saying come early twenty 18 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: twenty five rather than rece you've seen policy rates at 19 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: each meeting, the FED is likely to slow it's coming 20 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 2: pace to every other meeting, with some risks that rates 21 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 2: don't fall as far as either the FED or the 22 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 2: market had originally envisioned. Saman joined just now for more Samoa, 23 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 2: welcome back and it's good to see you as always. 24 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: How problematic do you expect that to be to equities? 25 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 3: Well, actually, I don't. 26 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 4: Know if it's going to be that problematic, but equities, 27 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 4: I think the key thing that equities need is the 28 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 4: strong growth and almost a FED put so. Where it 29 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 4: becomes really challenging, though, is if inflation starts to become 30 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 4: a little bit more concerning and then the FED doesn't 31 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 4: cut race it's far because they're worried about inflation expectations increasing. 32 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 4: That I think would be the flying the ointment for equities. 33 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 4: But otherwise I'm going to add to the masses. I'm 34 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 4: pretty positive about next year. 35 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: Really positive about next year for the US and Europe, 36 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 2: or just the US, because all I've heard is the US, US, 37 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 2: US and Europe's kind of been left in a dust. 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the story for Europe has got even 39 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 4: worse in the last couple of weeks. Use exceptionalism was 40 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 4: the story for this year. It's going to be the 41 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 4: story for next year, even more so now that we've 42 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 4: got the election behind US and Europe it was already 43 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 4: struggling with weak fundamentals. 44 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 3: The economy is already struggling. 45 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 4: We've already seen evidence it now services is joy manufacturing 46 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 4: in that cooling period. So I think it's a challenging 47 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 4: period for Europe and certainly for US. It's more about 48 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 4: US secrities in Europe. I think there are opportunities in 49 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:25,399 Speaker 4: other parts of the world, some segments in Asia, various pockets, 50 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 4: but overall, I think this is going to be another 51 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 4: year where you see continued strength for the US. 52 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 5: Seem Can you quantify how much you're sort of doubling 53 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 5: down on this bet that the United States is going 54 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 5: to be the bright spot and that Europe is going 55 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 5: to be even worse than it was this year. 56 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 3: I think that Europe. 57 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 4: I think the thing that we're trying to watch as 58 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 4: well is we have to keep in eye those technicals. 59 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: We're a sentiment. 60 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 4: We do think that sentiment is getting incredibly negative about Europe. 61 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 4: As you've just said, everyone is joining in to that 62 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 4: massive US over Europe and becoming very, very negative on 63 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 4: that side, valuations value attractive figure. So it could be 64 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 4: that you just need a slight improvement in the outlook 65 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 4: for Europe, some kind of upside surprises with regards to 66 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 4: the economy. Maybe the ECB really stepping in and starting 67 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 4: to improve expect investor expectations, and that could be enough 68 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,079 Speaker 4: to shift that needle vicinity. At this stage, it's quite 69 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: difficult to see that coming through. 70 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 5: There's a question more about whether you can bet at 71 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 5: least in European bonds at the same time that you 72 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 5: bet on American exceptionalism, because you can imagine the ECB 73 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 5: is going to have to cut rates more aggressively and 74 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 5: if there is some sort of downturn that could be 75 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 5: some sort of have in trade. Do you believe that 76 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 5: that is the correct way to go or do you 77 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 5: think that that is premature at a time where the 78 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 5: bond vigilantes seem to be having their pens and papers 79 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 5: out for the likes of France. 80 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 4: Well, I think, as it is always the case with you, 81 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 4: you can't just look at Europus as one entity. There's 82 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 4: so many different entities which are very different disparant that 83 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 4: in that region overall, Yes, the ECB is going to 84 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 4: be cutting rates far more aggressively than the US, and 85 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 4: think the would be a fifty basis pointcut thrown in 86 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 4: there at some point in twenty twenty five, and they're 87 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 4: going to be reducing rates below neutral, whereas a FED 88 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 4: is going to get maybe a little bit close to neutral, 89 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 4: but probably not below. 90 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 3: So there is reason to have that overweight to European 91 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 3: sovereigns rather than the US. But as you said, you have. 92 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 4: To be really careful and keeping an eye on what 93 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 4: is going on with the budget deficits in every country 94 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 4: that we're looking at. I think is going to be 95 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 4: a key thing for next year because you know, we 96 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 4: talk about FED policy uncertainty all the time, but there's 97 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 4: so much on the government policy side with As you said, 98 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 4: bond vigilante is really something to gear up and keep 99 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 4: an eye on what's going on in different countries. We've 100 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 4: already seen it in the UK, we've seen some idea 101 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 4: of it within the US, and clearly is coming through 102 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 4: in France as well. So I think that is going 103 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 4: to be a key conversation for all the countries for 104 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 4: next year. 105 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 5: Which is the question Siema about whether the correct trade 106 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 5: on American exceptionalism is with the small caps, given the 107 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 5: fact that they seven most leverage to the potential of 108 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 5: bond vigilantes just peeking out the window in the United States, 109 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,679 Speaker 5: even that alone would be enough to potentially some other valuations. 110 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 4: Well, look, I think a small cap the run it's 111 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,919 Speaker 4: hand so far is really about valuations. 112 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 3: It's still due for that catchup. 113 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 4: Try so it's catching up with a large cap, and 114 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 4: it's attractive valuations. But as you were saying before, you 115 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 4: know small caps small businesses, they have a really significant 116 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 4: exposure to floating rate debt. So if you're not going 117 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 4: to see very significant rate cuts coming through next year, 118 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 4: maybe because of increased inflation concerns, then that's going to 119 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 4: be a fly and the oapment for small caps. 120 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: So I think that you can run through for a 121 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 3: little bit long for small caps. 122 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 4: But once valuations start to look a little bit less attractive, 123 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,239 Speaker 4: and certainly from a relative standpoint, where a large cap 124 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 4: does continue to look more attractive, and then I think 125 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 4: the small cap agenda starts to really become a little 126 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 4: bit more a little bit more unattractive. 127 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 2: New question for the office quiz over the Christmas holiday period, 128 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 2: do you want the new question. Yeah, please, what's the 129 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 2: dag's done in twenty twenty four. I'm not going to 130 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 2: put you on the spot and make you answer that. 131 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 2: See me show the DACK so far this year? Is 132 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 2: that by more than eighteen percent? And as we speak 133 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 2: about how bad Europe is, the DAX is at all 134 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 2: time highs. Sema Beg's the question, what is the dak's 135 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 2: doing a record highs? If things are so bad in 136 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 2: Europe and things aren't great in China either. 137 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 4: It's a great question, and I think this is a 138 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 4: key thing for investors to remember. Is it look from 139 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 4: a relative standpoint, Yes, it's going to be big differences 140 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 4: and these going to look more attractive. But if the 141 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 4: US market is doing well, it does tend to carry 142 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 4: most markets with it, so there will be opportunities globally. 143 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 4: And I think when we're going into twenty twenty five, 144 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 4: we so much uncertain team from a policy perspective, especially 145 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 4: now with the new Trump administration coming in, it does 146 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 4: make sense to have that global divestification. Are still our 147 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 4: preference is still for Europe, but we do think that 148 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 4: there's opportunities outside of US as well, so you do 149 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 4: get to have some diversification, some exposure to different markets too. 150 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 2: It's the bank's Bramo Commerce Bank Deutsche Bank yesterday perform 151 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 2: really well. 152 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, how much is this. 153 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 5: A catch up trade? How much is this because there 154 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 5: is this bed on rate cuts? And how much is 155 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,599 Speaker 5: it because the likes of Deutsche Bank have expanded dramatically 156 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 5: outside of Europe. So it sort of goes to Sima's 157 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 5: point that if they have some sort of footprint outside 158 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 5: of Europe, they can benefit even if they're listed on 159 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 5: the decks. 160 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 2: It's good to hear from your same as Shambare Principal 161 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 2: Asset Management on the path forward into twenty twenty five. 162 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 2: But here's the exist on that front. Fresh off of 163 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 2: visits and Mari Lanago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promising 164 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 2: to increase border enforcement to try and avoid tariffs, Mexican 165 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 2: President Claudia Schambaum also saying she's confident she can reach 166 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: a deal with President Trump. At Mills of Raema, James, 167 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: John just now for more at Mills, what does that 168 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: deal actually look like? 169 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 6: Well, I think John, it's a question do we pull 170 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 6: forward some of that renegotiation of the USMCA, which is 171 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 6: due to be renegotiated in twenty twenty six. I think 172 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 6: it is clear that there's going to have to be 173 00:07:54,600 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 6: significant increases in border related items. We see that Donald 174 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 6: Trump is going to lead off after he's inaugurated with 175 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 6: a number of immigration related issues. I do think, as 176 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 6: it relates to both Canada and Mexico, a lot of 177 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 6: changes to the way in which tariffs are done on autos, 178 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 6: and probably a huge push towards protecting the US auto industry, 179 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 6: especially visa each China. And I think what it really 180 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 6: comes down to, especially as it relates to Mexico, is 181 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 6: that US tariff policy. John states that you put a 182 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 6: tariff on where a product is finished. China knows that 183 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 6: China is moving a lot of production into Mexico and 184 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 6: then is able to bring things into the United States 185 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 6: TIF free. That's known as the Mexico backdoor. Donald Trump 186 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 6: is going to want to make sure that Mexico backdoor 187 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 6: is fully closed. 188 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: And there is a lot of people are listening to 189 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 2: what you say, they heard from the President in the 190 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 2: last week, and they just believe that the tariffs that 191 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 2: he's threatening are credible threats because he won't follow through 192 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 2: on them. Pitychev Academy right over the weekend. Consensus is, 193 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: right now, this is just a bargaining chip, bring him 194 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 2: to the table that've come to the table and maybe 195 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 2: get a little bit of something count from them. They 196 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 2: don't think he's going to follow through. Do your client 197 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 2: see it quite the same way yet, John. 198 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: I think that's probably right. 199 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 6: I was kind of going through this yesterday thinking that 200 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 6: when I wrote the note last week about the tweet 201 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 6: on the twenty five percent tariffs that could be coming, 202 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 6: there wasn't the same market reaction that we saw back 203 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 6: twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one during Trump one point zero. 204 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 6: I think that there is a long list of tariffs 205 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 6: that were proposed against Mexico, in particular during his first 206 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 6: term that never were followed through. So right now, I 207 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 6: think that the market would be surprised to the extent 208 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 6: that these go into effect. The thing that I am watching, 209 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 6: especially as it relates to Mexico, is that I think 210 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 6: there's a personality clash between Donald Trump and Mexican President 211 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 6: Claudia Steinbaum ready to happen, and I think that is 212 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 6: probable the wild card to watch. She's going to be 213 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 6: much more forceful in protecting Mexico and Donald Trump is 214 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 6: going to be also much more forceful on immigration in 215 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 6: his second term than he was in his first term, 216 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 6: and as that personality clash pays out, I think there's 217 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 6: a higher probability for some of these tariffs to go 218 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 6: into place, at least temporarily. He's talked about using some 219 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 6: dormant authorities that the President has not been using in 220 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 6: the past that can put on temporarily terrorists up to 221 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 6: fifteen percent without Congress, without an investigation on day one, 222 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 6: if he wants to do it. 223 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 5: And can you take that a step further in terms 224 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 5: of what we've learned from some of the recent conversations 225 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 5: or at least the readouts and the contradictory readouts from 226 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 5: Mexican head Claudia Scheinbaum and Donald Trump, as well as 227 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 5: the recent meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. How 228 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 5: much is this just Donald Trump testing different leaders' abilities 229 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 5: and willingness to come kiss the ring versus actual policy prescription, 230 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 5: and at this point before he even enters the White House. 231 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: Now, at least I think you are right. 232 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 6: I do think that this is a testing the waters 233 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 6: phase of this. I do think that the readouts have 234 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 6: to be taken with a grain of salt. Donald Trump 235 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 6: is not using kind of the traditional ways in which 236 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 6: we deal with diplomacy, not getting the State Department involved. 237 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 6: We all know that, so kind of each president is 238 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 6: able to put out their own kind of message as 239 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 6: it relates to Donald Trump or Claudia Scheinbaum. Justin Trudeau 240 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 6: as Prime Minister is able to put out whatever he 241 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 6: thinks that is necessary. But I don't necessarily think that 242 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 6: this is something that you tested out, get some changes 243 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 6: to clear victory and move on the issues that he's 244 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 6: talking about, and then you put into play some of 245 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 6: the personnel picks. Howard Lutnik at Commerce going to be 246 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 6: very aggressive on tariff's. Jamison Greer, who is going to 247 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 6: be the pick for US Trade Representative. One of the 248 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 6: reasons Donald Trump picked him is he's going to be 249 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:04,599 Speaker 6: much more willing to be more aggressive with some of 250 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 6: those authorities that I've discussed than Bob Litthheiser. So I 251 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 6: understand the reluctance to over index or over expect that 252 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 6: this is going to happen on day one, But tariffs 253 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 6: are coming. It is going to be volatile, and we 254 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 6: have to expect the unexpected when we think about Trump 255 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,439 Speaker 6: two point zero for this market and how many. 256 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 5: Of these nominees are actually going to get through at 257 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 5: a time where we have a lot of clashes between 258 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 5: already John Thune, who is the head of the Senate 259 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 5: Leadership for Republicans, and at least one or two of 260 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 5: these candidates. 261 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, so I was looking at the ones that you've 262 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 6: put up on your screen. I think most, if not all, 263 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 6: of the picks for Treasury Secretary, US Trade Representative Howard 264 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 6: Latnik more likely than not to get confirmed. FBI director 265 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 6: a big question mark, the Defense Secretary, big question mark, 266 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 6: Health and Human Services in the area at Raymond James 267 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 6: that we've been getting a lot of question more of 268 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 6: a question mark, but in that toss up category. So 269 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 6: Donald Trump with fifty three votes in the Senate and 270 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 6: it only takes fifty to get the nominee confirmed, far 271 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 6: more than would normally get confirmed if we had the 272 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 6: old sixty vote majority that was required in the Senate. 273 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 6: Get confirmed, Donald Trump will have a cabinet that he wants. 274 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 6: There will be some exceptions, but for the most part, 275 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 6: been telling clients expect the vast majority of these nominees 276 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 6: to be sitting in their posts sooner rather than later. 277 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 5: Lisa, you whi ed, we do still have a sitting president, 278 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:37,959 Speaker 5: and he occasionally tries to remind us of that. The 279 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 5: latest coming out with some new restrictions on Chinese semiconductors, 280 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 5: in particular having to do with AI memory and tools 281 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 5: to build the high end chips. How much How do 282 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 5: you interpret this basically, some of the actions that we're 283 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 5: seeing out of the White House now at a time 284 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 5: where a lot of people have almost discounted current President 285 00:13:57,600 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 5: Joe Biden. 286 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 6: So as it related to tech restrictions, Lisa, I've been 287 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 6: telling clients at Raymond James, this is bipartisan. This is 288 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 6: something that the Biden administration picked up the torch from 289 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 6: Trump one point zero and accelerated that during his term. 290 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 6: We will get these restrictions out during the Biden term, 291 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 6: but they probably go even further during the Trump term. 292 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 6: The restrictions that we're discussing this morning are restrictions that 293 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 6: have been in the hopper for months. The Biden administration 294 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 6: has been working with the Netherlands in Japan trying to 295 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 6: get a trilateral deal. There are some differences in the 296 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 6: way in which the United States, the Dutch, and the 297 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 6: Japanese enforce these tech restrictions. That is an unfeared issue 298 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 6: for US companies. The expansion is about making sure that 299 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 6: China doesn't engage in what has been a game of 300 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 6: whack a mole, where as soon as we put on restrictions, 301 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 6: they either move production to a new country or they 302 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 6: establish new companies that are not on restricted lists. I 303 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 6: am anticipating that the administration tries to tighten up that 304 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 6: game of wackamle. The big question to me for clients 305 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 6: is how much of a hammer does Donald Trump come 306 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 6: after that next year and tries to end that game 307 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 6: of whacka mall and has much more restrictive, you know, 308 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 6: changes to semiicap equipment going into China, especially on legacy 309 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 6: equipment during his second term. 310 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: It's a big question for all of us going into 311 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. And Mills of Raymond James ed thank you, sir. 312 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: Just check out the picture of Donald Trump President Alec's 313 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 2: economic team. And let's go through the names, and we'll 314 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 2: talk about the name that's not there. How's it? A 315 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 2: Nec Jamison Greer, US trade representative Scott Best and a Treasury. 316 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 2: How would Lutnik a commace. The market was very worried 317 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 2: at one point about Ambassador Lightheiser going into the cabinet 318 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 2: again but maybe becoming Treasury secretary, maybe ending up for 319 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: anyc The reporting from Axios side for the weekend almost 320 00:15:52,240 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: reinforced by Ed Knows there from Raymond James, Well, Claudia, 321 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 2: welcome to the program. I think we should start there 322 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: the supply side of the economy and how much of 323 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: the hard work that's been doing so far over the 324 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 2: course of twenty twenty four and why it leaves the 325 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: federal Reserve as it thinks about twenty twenty five and beyond. 326 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 7: All right, well, it is so important that we don't 327 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 7: just look at a GDP number and say, oh, it's 328 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 7: almost three percent and move along. 329 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: We need to stop and what is going on? Why 330 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: is growth so good? Are we overheating? 331 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 7: If we're overheating, then the FED steps in the raise rates, 332 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: they cool things down. 333 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: That is not what's happening. We have seen a real 334 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 1: pickup and growth. 335 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:42,239 Speaker 7: Remember we were promised a recepsion and we got an acceleration, 336 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 7: and we've seen for two years running now almost three 337 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 7: percent growth and a lot of that, if you look 338 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 7: under the hood, is coming from. 339 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: Productivity, and that is the holy grail. 340 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 7: Of economic prosperity, and we should be spending a lot 341 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 7: of time trying to figure out exactly how did we 342 00:16:57,920 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 7: get to this place that we've seen a pickup and 343 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 7: growth and this is something us is seeing in our 344 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 7: peer countries are not. 345 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: So it's a really important question to dig into. 346 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 5: Claudia, given that people believe in yourself is as one 347 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 5: of them, that this is becoming a productivity story. Does 348 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 5: this mean that from your perspective, it's not inflationary, that 349 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 5: it doesn't necessarily preclude the fetter reserve from cutting in 350 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 5: a couple weeks time. 351 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 4: Right. 352 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,719 Speaker 7: Inflation happens when demand is outstripping supply. 353 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 1: That's the one O one. There's more to it. 354 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 7: But in general, if we have too much demand and 355 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 7: not enough supply, then we're going to get price increases 356 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 7: to kind of you know, make the market work. But 357 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 7: if we can get more supply in there, and that 358 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 7: is the lesson. We did not get the big disinflation 359 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 7: without a recession without this supply side help. And we 360 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 7: got it not just from supply chains. We got it 361 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 7: from workers coming online, and we also got this kick 362 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 7: of getting people in more productive positions, getting more capital 363 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 7: in their hands to do their jobs, and like that 364 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 7: was such the way to solve the problem of the 365 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 7: high inflation. Well, that's not the only problem that a 366 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,439 Speaker 7: good supply side solves. It also can really help us 367 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 7: thinking about growth over the long term. 368 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: But we got to get out. 369 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,199 Speaker 7: Of our head that it's like all growth and the 370 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 7: FED does interest rates Like productivity is a really tough 371 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 7: nut to crack, and it actually is not primarily about 372 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:16,439 Speaker 7: the Federal Reserve. 373 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 5: Claudia, How does Fedshair J. Powell message this at a 374 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 5: time when he is going to be speaking on Wednesday 375 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 5: at a moderated conversation ahead of a time where inevitably, 376 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 5: as we've been caring from a host of analysts, the 377 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 5: FED is likely to revise a lot of its projections 378 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 5: with inflation going up, with unemployment going down, and with 379 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 5: growth also going up, given the fact that you have 380 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 5: seen those upside surprises to growth. 381 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 7: Pale has made a real effort on this, and I 382 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 7: would just kind of tell him to double down on it. 383 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: He said multiple times the FED doesn't have. 384 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 7: A growth mandate, but that's a kind of a wishy 385 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 7: washy say way of saying that sometimes when growth is high, 386 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 7: the FED needs to step in, and sometimes when growth 387 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 7: is high, the FED needs to get out of the way. 388 00:18:57,720 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: And this is one of. 389 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 7: Those times where the FED needs to get out of 390 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 7: the way because it is there's productivity there and high 391 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 7: interest rates being unnecessarily restrictive on the economy relative the 392 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 7: dual mandate, it has costs. This high growth is not guaranteed. 393 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 1: Unfortunately. 394 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 7: That is the thing about productivity that we have learned 395 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 7: from the past is yeah, sometimes we get it and 396 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 7: holding on to it is what is really hard. So like, 397 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 7: we should not be taking this lightly that we've got 398 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 7: this kind of growth, pick up this productivity renaissance. The 399 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 7: question should be what can all policy makers and frankly 400 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 7: a lot of these lovers are not with the feather 401 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 7: with fiscal or other government authorities, but like, what levers 402 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 7: can we pull to keep this going? And how Continuing 403 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 7: to go back to his dual mandate of the price 404 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 7: stability and the labor market, the maximum employment, I think 405 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 7: is important because the more we've dug into and research 406 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 7: with this productivity boom, it goes back to the labor 407 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 7: market the dynamic labor market is very much tied back 408 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 7: to the dynamic economy. 409 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: The higher productivity. 410 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the libor folk growth that we've seen, Claudia, 411 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 2: and I wonder for your perspective whether you think is 412 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 2: distorted the Fed's understanding of the influence that they actually 413 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 2: have of inflation. 414 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 7: This is I think the FED has been very humble 415 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 7: and open to the fact that there's a lot that's 416 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 7: going on with inflation that we don't understand, and I 417 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 7: think they have been probably clearer than a lot of 418 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 7: the people watching the FED that their tools have been 419 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 7: not they're limited, right, There's a lot of dynamics of 420 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:26,639 Speaker 7: inflation that had to do a supply side that are 421 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 7: not primarily about the FED. The FED does have a 422 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 7: mandate with inflation. They have stepped in. They do need 423 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 7: to pay attention and when we see, you know, inflation 424 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 7: picking up, they would step back in. So it's not 425 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 7: that the FED is out of the picture with inflation. 426 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 7: I think they have tried hard to make it a 427 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,439 Speaker 7: more nuanced conversation. Nuance is tough, right, but they just 428 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 7: they can't give up on this, and I think this 429 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 7: balancing the two sides of the mandate and just saying hey, 430 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 7: this is not about growth. High growth does not mean 431 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 7: we need to hike. High growth does not mean that 432 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,120 Speaker 7: we have no reason to cut. It's our dual mandate 433 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 7: and the growth. This conversation is a separate piece of 434 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 7: this Lord, if we have to look under the hood. 435 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 2: We enjoyed this conversation. It's going to see you as always, Cordia, 436 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 2: sound there a new century Advisors, Laudia, thank you. This 437 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 2: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, 438 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 2: angient politics. 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