Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for
Speaker 2: the future of this show.
Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest
Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does
Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent
Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We're going to
Speaker 3: get right into the news day because things are moving
Speaker 3: very very quickly, say the least.
Speaker 2: We are going to have Professor Jeffrey Sachs join us
Speaker 2: later in the show, so really looking forward to that.
Speaker 2: Emily is going to go through some of the key
Speaker 2: clips from our interview with Tucker, but yeah, we want
Speaker 2: to just jump right in because things are moving so
Speaker 2: incredibly quickly. This morning, Donald Trump coming out guns blazing,
Speaker 2: threatening both Israel and Iron not to violate a ceasefire
Speaker 2: that he helps a broker yesterday. I'm going to play
Speaker 2: the full comments here so you can really get a
Speaker 2: full sense of what is going on, and then after
Speaker 2: that I'll back up and we'll walk you through exactly
Speaker 2: how we got to this point. Go ahead and take
Speaker 2: a listen.
Speaker 3: Agreement.
Speaker 4: Do you believe that a ron so for many to see?
Speaker 3: Yea, I do.
Speaker 5: They violated it, But Israel violated it too. Israel as
Speaker 5: soon as we made the deal, they came out and
Speaker 5: they dropped the load of Bob's the likes of which
Speaker 5: I've never seen before, the biggest load that we've seen.
Speaker 5: I'm not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay,
Speaker 5: now you have twelve hours, you don't go out in
Speaker 5: the first hour. It just drop everything you have on them.
Speaker 5: So I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with
Speaker 5: Iron either, But I'm really unhappy if Israel's going out
Speaker 5: this morning because the one rocket that didn't land, that
Speaker 5: was shot perhaps by mistake, that didn't land, I'm not
Speaker 5: happy about that. You know what we have, We basically
Speaker 5: have two countries that have been fighting so long and
Speaker 5: so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing.
Speaker 5: Do you understand that.
Speaker 6: On a suppering apprograle.
Speaker 5: I mean Iran will never rebuild a duklin from there,
Speaker 5: absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished.
Speaker 5: The b two pilots did their job. They did it
Speaker 5: better than anybody could even imagine. They hit late in
Speaker 5: the evening, it was dark with no moon, and they
Speaker 5: hit that target with every one of those things. And
Speaker 5: that place is gone. But when I see CNN all
Speaker 5: night long, they're trying to say, well, maybe it wasn't
Speaker 5: really as demolished as we thought. There was demolished, and
Speaker 5: you take a look at the pinpricks and you see
Speaker 5: that place is gone. And I will say, I think
Speaker 5: CNN or to apologize to the pilots of the V twos,
Speaker 5: I think that MSD and ZO to apologize.
Speaker 2: So very habit present saying he is very unhappy with
Speaker 2: Israel dropping a load of bombs, also saying that he
Speaker 2: thinks these are two countries that have been fighting for
Speaker 2: so hard and so long, they don't know what the
Speaker 2: f they're doing dropping.
Speaker 7: The F bomb here.
Speaker 2: This comes on the heels of a whole lot. I'll
Speaker 2: just go ahead and put up the or read through
Speaker 2: the true social posts that have come out just this morning. Again,
Speaker 2: this is in the context and I'll show you all
Speaker 2: of this in just a moment of a ceasefire deal
Speaker 2: that the President announced yesterday evening.
Speaker 7: So first thing we.
Speaker 2: Got this morning is President Trump posted, Israel, do not
Speaker 2: drop those bombs. If you do, it is a major violation.
Speaker 2: Bring your pilots home now, Donald J. Trump, President the
Speaker 2: United States. Next, he posted, Israel is not going to
Speaker 2: attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home.
Speaker 2: While doing a friendly plane wave. He puts in quotes
Speaker 2: to Iran, nobody.
Speaker 7: Will be hurt.
Speaker 2: The ceasefire is in effect. Thank you for your attention
Speaker 2: to this matter. And then the latest one that we gotten,
Speaker 2: by the way, recording this at eight oh eight am
Speaker 2: this morning. This is from about half an hour ago.
Speaker 2: Iran will never rebuild their nuclear facilities. And that was
Speaker 2: the other significant part saga of what the President was
Speaker 2: insisting on there and his rant and screen against CNN
Speaker 2: and MSNBC, DNC as he was calling it is the
Speaker 2: fact that insisting that the nuclear facilities that we bombed
Speaker 2: were completely obliterated. I think this being significant because he
Speaker 2: wants to be able to claim that something was accomplished
Speaker 2: with this incredibly dangerous and escalatory mission that he engaged in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, before look, I mean I think even before we
Speaker 3: get to the macro. It's really just worth ruminating on
Speaker 3: the last twelve hours because originally we had the ceasefire.
Speaker 3: We can actually put that up on the screen, A
Speaker 3: one please, just to show everybody this is how things
Speaker 3: started out. Congratulations to everyone. It's been fully agreed there'll
Speaker 3: be a ceasefire. Then this is the confusing part. Officially,
Speaker 3: Iran will start the ceasefire, and upon the twelfth hour,
Speaker 3: Israel will start the ceasefire, and upon the twenty fourth hour,
Speaker 3: an official end to the twelve day war will be
Speaker 3: saluted by the world. Now, immediately after that, there was
Speaker 3: some confusion and some reporting that came out as to
Speaker 3: whether it was all even true. Putting a two please
Speaker 3: up on the screen so you can see it was
Speaker 3: like Trump, Israel, and Israel and around agreed to a ceasfire.
Speaker 3: Then Iran, we have not received any cspire proposal. Israel,
Speaker 3: we are declining to comment on any ceasfire. Iran says
Speaker 3: they have agreed to the US proposed cease fire, but
Speaker 3: they proposed a different timeline than the one that was
Speaker 3: offered by Trump three thirty am Jerusalem time, and initially
Speaker 3: then we see reports that Israel actually carries out its
Speaker 3: strongest strikes ever of the entire campaign, all across the
Speaker 3: city of Tehran, something that Trump mentioned in his tirade saying,
Speaker 3: who in the first hour of ceasefire goes in there
Speaker 3: and blows it up. We were like, oh, interesting, you know,
Speaker 3: we're starting to pay attention a little bit here to
Speaker 3: what these Israeli strikes actually are going to do. Then
Speaker 3: what happens is that the Iranians fire missiles also after
Speaker 3: their so called four am deadline that their own foreign
Speaker 3: minister announces last night, actually a significant amount of missiles
Speaker 3: for civilians were killed inside of Israel, was a significant
Speaker 3: amount of damage. Then this was roughly three hours before
Speaker 3: we're filming. The IDF announces that they are going to
Speaker 3: a bliter or eight Tehran. They're going to strike back
Speaker 3: the warmant. The war Cabinet approves itv Ben Gavier posts
Speaker 3: one of those things being like, you guys asked for it,
Speaker 3: We're coming for you. Is IDF jets are literally over
Speaker 3: the skies of Tehran, and then Trump walks out onto
Speaker 3: the South Lawn and that's where he gives his tyrone,
Speaker 3: the tyrate.
Speaker 1: They don't know what the fuck they're doing. I'm very
Speaker 1: upset with.
Speaker 3: Israel orders Israel by truth social to stop. And so
Speaker 3: that's where things stand as for right now. It has
Speaker 3: been like an absolutely insane twenty four hour period. But yeah,
Speaker 3: let's then take a step back and actually look analytically
Speaker 3: at everything that's This is the fakest end of a
Speaker 3: conflict and beginning of a conflict of all time. So
Speaker 3: Israel and we haven't even gotten to the fact that
Speaker 3: the Iran, you know, launched fourteen missiles at a US
Speaker 3: air base in.
Speaker 7: Qatar, our largest airbase in the region, the.
Speaker 3: Largest airbase in the region, a huge logistics hub. I've
Speaker 3: talked a lot about it yesterday. Actually, can we put
Speaker 3: some of the vo of that place a seven guys.
Speaker 1: Can we go in and show it to everybody?
Speaker 3: You got some US service members that are cheering all
Speaker 3: the Patriot batteries and the show. I mean, it's pretty surreal.
Speaker 3: As people know, I went to high school in Guitar,
Speaker 3: so it's pretty insane. Literally, I've been to that air base,
Speaker 3: you know, I went to high school there. I knew
Speaker 3: some people who still live in the country. It's pretty
Speaker 3: wild that the airspace was closed. You know, Qatar Airways
Speaker 3: one of the largest carriers in the world, turning planes
Speaker 3: around in the middle of the sky.
Speaker 1: It was a very dangerous situation. So that is happening.
Speaker 3: Immediately afterwards, the Iranians, it basically the news comes out
Speaker 3: that they coordinated their strike with Qatar and gave a
Speaker 3: heads up to the United States. It was a very
Speaker 3: very calibrated response. It was the off ramp. Trump takes
Speaker 3: the off ramp and he's like, thank you Iran for
Speaker 3: giving us a heads up about the strike. There's been
Speaker 3: no damage here at the airbase, no Americans were killed.
Speaker 3: Now it's time for world peace. So Iran executes a
Speaker 3: fake attack on America. America does basically a fake claim.
Speaker 3: We get to pretend that Iran's nuclear program is gone.
Speaker 3: This is all of fugazy, let's all be honest. Yeah,
Speaker 3: and then Israel gets to, I guess, pretend that this
Speaker 3: was really about the nuclear program and not about regime
Speaker 3: change this entire time. So it's just it's a fake
Speaker 3: It's fake literally all around. Everyone is pretending at every level.
Speaker 3: I mean, the truth is is that the Iranian nuclear
Speaker 3: program and the uranium stockpile remains intact despite whatever they
Speaker 3: want to claim. I still the Vice President on Fox
Speaker 3: News me like it's been buried and actually it's no
Speaker 3: longer a problem. There's an act literally non a scrap
Speaker 3: of evidence to back that up. In fact, all arms
Speaker 3: Control people are saying, actually, we know exactly where it is,
Speaker 3: and they do have still some secret facilities. They're roughly
Speaker 3: three to five years away likely from being able to
Speaker 3: create a nuclear bomb if they wanted to. In fact,
Speaker 3: the strategic logic of doing so probably has never existed.
Speaker 3: More on the Israeli side, I mean, it's pretty obvious
Speaker 3: that from day one none of this was really about
Speaker 3: the nuclear weapons program because they're blowing up half of
Speaker 3: the regime and executing all of these people, Okay. And
Speaker 3: then again on the Iranian side, I mean, look, we can't.
Speaker 3: You know, it's like it's been embarrassing for them as well.
Speaker 3: I mean, they had their entire command and control basically exit,
Speaker 3: you know, basically infiltrated by Mosad. Yes, they were able
Speaker 3: to establish some credible ballistic missile deterrment, but they had
Speaker 3: their whole air defense systems that were wiped out. And
Speaker 3: the reason they took their off ramp is because at
Speaker 3: the end of the day they were getting pounded and
Speaker 3: they were at serious risk.
Speaker 2: I think Iranians, I mean, they weren't the ones on
Speaker 2: the on ramp to start with, so like for them
Speaker 2: to take the off ramp, it was because they didn't
Speaker 2: want this war to begin with.
Speaker 3: That's also the strategic logic of this, where you know,
Speaker 3: on the one hand, iran is a regime of Nazis
Speaker 3: who chant death to America, but then on the other
Speaker 3: they are a restrained and rational party giving you know,
Speaker 3: heads up to the United States of America as Israel
Speaker 3: and taking the first chance at an off ramp are
Speaker 3: So which one is it?
Speaker 2: Can we hold on that point because I want people
Speaker 2: to really think about this. I want you to think
Speaker 2: about the way that the Iranians have been portrayed in
Speaker 2: mass American media, certainly my entire.
Speaker 7: Life, as this Nazi esque.
Speaker 2: Belligerent regime that the moment they got a nuke was
Speaker 2: going to come and blow up New York City. Right,
Speaker 2: That's how we're supposed to understand them, But not only
Speaker 2: in this conflict.
Speaker 7: Okay, let's be really clear.
Speaker 2: The Iranians are the ones that de escalated and created
Speaker 2: the possibility of de escalation because our actions of dropping
Speaker 2: a dozen bunker buster bombs on their nuclear facilities, our
Speaker 2: actions were incredibly inflammatory in escalatory. Their reaction to that
Speaker 2: was to tell us, hey, listen, we got to do
Speaker 2: something in response to this, but here's where it's going
Speaker 2: to be, Here's when it's going to be. So we
Speaker 2: can just do a performative strike that is not going
Speaker 2: to actually cause any damage, which it didn't, and certainly
Speaker 2: no casualties, which it also didn't, so that we have
Speaker 2: a chance at taking the tensions down incredibly. Look, I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm not sure it was the right to decision. In fact,
Speaker 2: I think if there's any critique strategically just tactically of
Speaker 2: the Iranian government, it's actually that they've been too weak
Speaker 2: in response to provocations, especially the provocations from Israel and
Speaker 2: also the you know, provocations from Trump in his first
Speaker 2: term when he assassinated cost him solo money. What he
Speaker 2: learned from that is there's no price to be paid
Speaker 2: from messing with them, and so that's, you know, if
Speaker 2: anything tactically that would be the critique of them. And
Speaker 2: yet we're supposed to believe that they are hell bent
Speaker 2: on getting a nuclear weapon and that the second they do,
Speaker 2: they're going to drop it on Kansas or Missouri or
Speaker 2: New York City or whatever. This is preposterous. It's total
Speaker 2: and complete nonsense. The people who have been behaving like
Speaker 2: the biggest maniacs, psychopaths and completely rogue regime that do
Speaker 2: actually have a secret nuclear program are the Israelis. They
Speaker 2: are the provocateurs here. Now listen, Trump does not get
Speaker 2: off the hook. He decided that he wanted to engage
Speaker 2: with Israel in this incredibly stupid, foolish danger is game.
Speaker 2: And now he's pretending, to your point about the fakery,
Speaker 2: he's pretending, Oh, we obliterated their nuclear birth.
Speaker 1: Okay, look that's what we know.
Speaker 7: That's what you mean to pretend, and we're to get it. Sure.
Speaker 2: But the reality is, what have we in those of
Speaker 2: us who are living in the real world, what have
Speaker 2: we actually gained. What we've actually gained is we provided
Speaker 2: more incentive for the Iranians to pursue a nuclear weapon.
Speaker 2: We have allowed Israel to You know, you give those
Speaker 2: people an inch, they take a mile. If you think
Speaker 2: this is it and it's over, and it's done. You
Speaker 2: think BBN Yahu is about to wake up today and say,
Speaker 2: you know, regime change in Iran. I don't really need that.
Speaker 7: I'm good.
Speaker 2: You know now that they drop their bunker busters and
Speaker 2: the nuclear program is not at all does mean I'm good.
Speaker 2: I can just sit back and it'll be fun. No,
Speaker 2: he and his allies, of which he has many in
Speaker 2: this town. As Lord knows we've seen and the media,
Speaker 2: he and his allies will keep pushing, keep pushing. There
Speaker 2: will be another. Oh, Iran violated the ceasefire. Now we
Speaker 2: have to bond this. This will not be the last time,
Speaker 2: because they roll out this playbook every single time. I
Speaker 2: don't know if there's ever been a ceasefire agreement that
Speaker 2: Israel has agreed to that they haven't had happen.
Speaker 1: In Lebanon exactly.
Speaker 3: And look, I mean this is again why this hole
Speaker 3: Maga cope is driving me crazy because what you're watching
Speaker 3: here is not some grand master plan. It is utterly schizophrenic.
Speaker 3: And we know this. I even know it. I've spent
Speaker 3: the last two weeks of my life on the phone.
Speaker 3: And it's ironic because they're like, oh, we trusted the
Speaker 3: plan all along, and I'm like, do you want to
Speaker 3: know who didn't.
Speaker 1: Trust the plan?
Speaker 3: A massive number of people with top secret security clearance
Speaker 3: working in national security in this White House situation room
Speaker 3: or around it in the Pentagon and the State Department,
Speaker 3: in the intelligence community, who thought that we were this
Speaker 3: close to the brink of war because of the capricious
Speaker 3: nature of the way Trump has done this. Remember, let's
Speaker 3: just look again at the public statements just from the
Speaker 3: and again there's no actually, there's really no plan behind this. Initially,
Speaker 3: America has nothing to do with the strike because it's
Speaker 3: a yellow light, and Trump gets excited, and then we're
Speaker 3: going all in. We're actually okay with all of it,
Speaker 3: and then America is gonna come in. We give him
Speaker 3: a two week pause, but actually bomb them. After two days,
Speaker 3: we demand unconditional surrender, and we sign a cease fire
Speaker 3: within forty eight hours of after bombing them. What it's like,
Speaker 3: by your own admission, literally nothing of what you said
Speaker 3: makes any sense. The diplomacy was used as a ruse,
Speaker 3: and then you demand region and then you're saying we're
Speaker 3: gonna have regime change.
Speaker 1: So what happened to unconditional surrender? Which is it?
Speaker 3: And This is exactly the problem is that the israelis
Speaker 3: having a major strategic opening here if they need it.
Speaker 3: Trump is angry because he didn't get his pr win initially.
Speaker 3: Now they get to go right back to work on him,
Speaker 3: just like they did with the negotiations. Remember, if this
Speaker 3: does not end today, Trump wants a to end today,
Speaker 3: But what will happen already today?
Speaker 7: Trump wants it.
Speaker 3: So. Trump wants it exactly. Trump wants it to end today.
Speaker 3: He's like, we will now have peace for all time.
Speaker 3: He literally said that.
Speaker 1: I'm not joking. I'm like, Okay, well.
Speaker 3: What I've already watched, and I follow all of these
Speaker 3: people religiously. Mark Dubowitz, Jason BRODSKT, all these other United
Speaker 3: against Nuclear Iran, the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, all of
Speaker 3: the actual neo con operatives here in Washington whose job
Speaker 3: is to lobby against deals, all of them are already
Speaker 3: be like, listen, look, Trump, ceasefire.
Speaker 1: It's a historic achievement.
Speaker 3: However, as long as the Islamic regime remains in place,
Speaker 3: Israel is no longer safe or now we have to
Speaker 3: get back to the negotiating table. And when we get
Speaker 3: back to that negotiating table. We cannot let the Iranians
Speaker 3: put in any poison pills. They are laying the ground
Speaker 3: there for more violations of potential cease fire, future Israeli action,
Speaker 3: more pushing the United States. And look at the vector
Speaker 3: now that they have on Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: All they have to do.
Speaker 3: Is to convince him that he's been humiliated by Iran
Speaker 3: or something like that, and of course he could change
Speaker 3: his mind immediately. Mark Levin is immediately on his radio
Speaker 3: show saying that doing a ceasefire with Nazis is terrible strategy,
Speaker 3: hard against Donald Trump. I'm watching the same thing. Half
Speaker 3: of these like neocon agitating accounts. They're furious with Trump
Speaker 3: actually for restraining Israel because Iran.
Speaker 1: Broke the ceasefire.
Speaker 3: Look, I don't even know who broke the cease fire
Speaker 3: because I don't know when the damn seaspire even started.
Speaker 3: I don't think you read that tweet and you tell
Speaker 3: me if you can decipher what it is. And by
Speaker 3: the way, it's not just me, the Israelis and the
Speaker 3: Iranians are confused as well. So look, we're still in
Speaker 3: a bad situation. This is very very mission accomplished to me,
Speaker 3: you know, it's oh, it's he wants he wanted to
Speaker 3: be the Twelve Day War, and you can see it
Speaker 3: in his television brain.
Speaker 1: This is pr but this is real life. And by
Speaker 1: the way, even if it was.
Speaker 3: Like such a grand strategics success, did a single thing
Speaker 3: get accomplished that couldn't have been accomplished with Steve Wickcoff.
Speaker 1: I just don't believe it, right Ques specially No, it
Speaker 1: set us back. Yeah, that's that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 3: The strategic logic of going for a bomb has literally
Speaker 3: never made In fact, the neocon logic may actually be
Speaker 3: more correct today that the Iranian incentive would be to
Speaker 3: string along the West, to agree to some you know,
Speaker 3: half assed deal or whatever, and sprint to a bomb.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you that's what I would do. Now.
Speaker 3: Look, the Iranians are weak, you know, they've been humiliated,
Speaker 3: but they still they remain to fight another day. If again,
Speaker 3: like the logic of a shelter, you know, shelter in place,
Speaker 3: bunker down, build as many ballistic missiles, and sprint to
Speaker 3: a nuke has literally never made more sense. Their country
Speaker 3: was almost destroyed, Like they got their air defenses gone,
Speaker 3: they got their nuclear facilities bombed. They all their attempts
Speaker 3: at diplomacy were failures, so they'll take the out where
Speaker 3: they can. But I mean, you know, if you are
Speaker 3: one of those negotiation pedlers inside the Iranian regime, what
Speaker 3: legitimacy do you have now with the security establishment? Again
Speaker 3: half striss in some strategic empathy. So they're not suicidal,
Speaker 3: but also they live to fight another day, and in
Speaker 3: a certain sense, like what has happened to them is
Speaker 3: so humiliating now on the world stage that I don't
Speaker 3: know if they really have a choice to go otherwise.
Speaker 3: And I'm not even really sure what assurance is we
Speaker 3: can offer them to say that this won't ever happen again,
Speaker 3: considering you know, the last ten years of year probacy,
Speaker 3: what are they going to do?
Speaker 7: There's zero assurance we could offer them.
Speaker 2: The minute that they give up their nuclear You know,
Speaker 2: what they have right now is the sixty percent highly
Speaker 2: enrich uranium, which we've heard endlessly about. They have that
Speaker 2: as a bargaining chip. They have that as something they
Speaker 2: can get rid of in order to get some sort
Speaker 2: of a deal in sanctions relief and whatever. They give
Speaker 2: that up, they are just sitting ducks, you know, that
Speaker 2: and if they give up even the pretense of, you know,
Speaker 2: pursuing some sort of nuclear weapon, which again they weren't
Speaker 2: according to our intelligence. According to the IEA, they were
Speaker 2: not pursuing a nuclear weapon. They were using the sixty
Speaker 2: percent in richeranium as a bargaining chip in the negotiations.
Speaker 2: But yeah, the minute you give all of that up,
Speaker 2: you're sitting duck and you.
Speaker 7: Can't trust are you kidding me?
Speaker 4: Trust us?
Speaker 2: We use this diplomacy as a ruse to allow the
Speaker 2: Israelis the element of surprise, you know, extent they were
Speaker 2: able to achieve that.
Speaker 7: Then we used a.
Speaker 2: Second diplomatic effort as a resistant even to talk about
Speaker 2: the fact we actually used a diplomatic ruse to assassinate Costumslulmany.
Speaker 2: To begin with, you can't trust us. Weren't there floating
Speaker 2: assassination of your leader of the Ayatola and you know,
Speaker 2: partner with these psychos who will do it at moments
Speaker 2: known as the second they get a chance. So, I mean,
Speaker 2: you'd have to be a fool to trust this in
Speaker 2: those negotiations and trust any sort of assurances that we're
Speaker 2: going to let you live and let your country be.
Speaker 7: There's no way. So that's where we are.
Speaker 2: I mean, you've you, I think genuinely had a shot
Speaker 2: with the Witcoff negotiations at the back in the beginning,
Speaker 2: when Witcoff and Trump's position seemed to be that there
Speaker 2: was some sort of a deal that could be struck
Speaker 2: with regard to civilian nuclear usage, some sort of regional consortion,
Speaker 2: that there was some creative solution that could be worked out.
Speaker 2: I think you genuinely had a shot at a deal.
Speaker 2: The minute it was zero percent enriched uranium, then that
Speaker 2: was a poison pill meant to kill those negotiations.
Speaker 7: And then when you use the final round.
Speaker 2: As a ruse at least that's the public portrayal as
Speaker 2: a ruse in order to allow the Israelis to attack,
Speaker 2: then you have probably completely closed the possibility of working
Speaker 2: this out through diplomatic means. Which, listen, there are no
Speaker 2: guarantees in life. Would that have completely guaranteed that they
Speaker 2: could never and would never pursue a nuclear weapon? No,
Speaker 2: there's no guarantees in life. Was that a much better
Speaker 2: course that was much more likely to result in the
Speaker 2: outcome that you claim to want to achieve.
Speaker 7: Yes, But that's the.
Speaker 2: Thing, guys, This was never for the people who are
Speaker 2: pushing this policy. This is never about the nuclear weapons program.
Speaker 2: They want the Iranian state to collapse. They want it
Speaker 2: to be a failed state. They would be happy to
Speaker 2: see some disastrous civil war, some disastrous and deadly civil
Speaker 2: war that is spiraling out of control, that would create
Speaker 2: a massive refugee crisis. That's what the Israelis and their
Speaker 2: allies and the new kons want to see, so that
Speaker 2: there is no challenge to complete in total Israeli hegemony
Speaker 2: in the region. That is the goal, that has always
Speaker 2: been the goal. The Israelis are not shy about saying
Speaker 2: ultimately that that is the goal. And that's why all
Speaker 2: these people, you know, the Marklevin's of the world and whoever,
Speaker 2: are just utterly outrage that there's even a possibility that
Speaker 2: this is the off ramp that we take. But you know, listen,
Speaker 2: everyone should be very skeptical that it ends here. Even
Speaker 2: if it ends here, this has been disastrous, so let's
Speaker 2: be clear, but you should also be skeptical that it
Speaker 2: actually ends here because Soccer is right. You were right
Speaker 2: in the beginning when you said, listen, the people who
Speaker 2: want diplomacy, they have to win the battle every single day.
Speaker 2: The psychos only have to win it once. They only
Speaker 2: have to get you know, a Fox News segment that
Speaker 2: convinces Trump one time, and suddenly you're off to the
Speaker 2: races again. The Israelis, because they are so hell bent,
Speaker 2: not in particular, but the Israelis in general is so
Speaker 2: hell bent on this outcome of regime collapse. They are
Speaker 2: not going to stop trying to pull us in and
Speaker 2: make sure that they get their fondest wish.
Speaker 7: That is their goal.
Speaker 2: They are completely and utterly committed to it. And unless
Speaker 2: you have someone on the other side in Trump who
Speaker 2: is who is completely and utterly committed to an alternative outcome,
Speaker 2: which would be actual peace and diplomacy, they are going
Speaker 2: to be able to ultimately get their way because no
Speaker 2: ideology is not a match for an ideology and ideological
Speaker 2: an ideological goal that you are dead set on effectuating.
Speaker 7: So I think we continue to be.
Speaker 2: In an incredibly dangerous and unstable place as is seen
Speaker 2: this morning. And also, I mean, the last thing I'll
Speaker 2: say here is, like, you know, Trump is making a
Speaker 2: big show this morning. We also know that a bunch
Speaker 2: of the things he said in the past were completely
Speaker 2: and totally fake. So yeah, and we're meant as a show.
Speaker 2: So you also can't put that off the table, that
Speaker 2: this is another show. We just genuinely don't know. It
Speaker 2: seems like he's genuinely frustrated with the Israelis.
Speaker 7: That would be my guest, I think, But you can't
Speaker 7: put that possibility off the table and shifts so quickly.
Speaker 3: I don't think that there's in fact, I know that
Speaker 3: there's not a level of intention behind it, because all
Speaker 3: of it really is just about like how he feels
Speaker 3: in this moment.
Speaker 1: It's about the show. He loves Trump the peacemaker.
Speaker 3: As you can all see, he's desperate to win the
Speaker 3: Nobel Peace Prize because Barack Obama, I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: falsely got one in two thousand and nine. But the
Speaker 3: point remains like that's what he wants at this moment,
Speaker 3: but he also wanted to appear tough and strong and
Speaker 3: got dragged basically, or at least went along with it
Speaker 3: based upon with Fox Newsy. Of course the man has agency.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean there's the incredible amount of like
Speaker 3: trust the plan and all of this. It's so utterly preposterous.
Speaker 1: There was no plan.
Speaker 3: It was moving about from day to day we came
Speaker 3: to the brink of war like this.
Speaker 1: The only reason, by the way, that.
Speaker 3: There was an off ramp was because of restraint from
Speaker 3: the Iranian side. You know, somebody riddled me that in
Speaker 3: terms of what that means, basically, everyone reiterate again, is
Speaker 3: pretending that all of its major goals were accomplished. The
Speaker 3: Iranians are lying, the Americans are lying, and the Israelis
Speaker 3: are lying. Now, I guess you know that's far preferable
Speaker 3: to war breaking out.
Speaker 1: I'm happy and listen.
Speaker 3: I would love to see an actual diplomatic solution that
Speaker 3: comes you know, that actually happens with Steve Wikoff and
Speaker 3: some future negotiation between Israel, Iran, and the United States.
Speaker 3: But what it would require is the Donald Trump of
Speaker 3: today basically coming hard against the Israelis. And we have
Speaker 3: day I was gonna say, and the problem with that
Speaker 3: is we've seen it once or twice. Oh, you can't
Speaker 3: attack Iran. I'm frustrated with you. You're going to take
Speaker 3: the ceasefire in Gaza. But what's usually the story. The
Speaker 3: ceasefire in Gaza happens, and then what collapses sixty days later,
Speaker 3: and now they're roll in Gaza. I mean, it's probably
Speaker 3: never been worse than it is today. And then what
Speaker 3: happened again, Oh, you can't attack Iran in April sixty
Speaker 3: one days later, boom they attack Iran. So we have
Speaker 3: a proven track record here. Now hopefully he learns from that. Again,
Speaker 3: I am very, very hopeful. But I think that the
Speaker 3: pro the pro war side is riding so high right
Speaker 3: now from being able to even just accomplish this, and
Speaker 3: they're going to claim a lot of credibility. And you know,
Speaker 3: Trump is a person who really can see like where
Speaker 3: his media and of course the media is playing a
Speaker 3: role CNNs yesterday talking about this is one of the
Speaker 3: greatest achievements of Donald Trump's entire president is one of
Speaker 3: the greatest legacies, you know in the Middle East, right,
Speaker 3: Like he's a showman. He can see and eats all
Speaker 3: of this stuff up. So yeah, for me, very mission
Speaker 3: accomplished vibe. Like the idea this is really going to
Speaker 3: end on day thirteen, I just think it's preposterous. And
Speaker 3: I actually think he's just opened up like a Pandora's
Speaker 3: box and this problem will now bedevil him for four years.
Speaker 3: It will just constantly rear its ugly head, Can you
Speaker 3: really forced the Israelis to accept it be a deal?
Speaker 1: Maybe?
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, if any president could, he could do it,
Speaker 3: but then he would have to want to do it.
Speaker 1: No, and I just don't know.
Speaker 7: Well, of course he could do it.
Speaker 2: Of course, any American president can say to the Israelis
Speaker 2: at any time like that's it. Your aight is pold,
Speaker 2: You're not getting those weapons, any.
Speaker 7: War, You're done.
Speaker 2: If it was not already clear to you how dependent
Speaker 2: on us they are in order to do anything, then
Speaker 2: I mean, I think this whole provocation and war that
Speaker 2: the Israelis launched should have proved that to you, because
Speaker 2: they came in knowing that they could not come close
Speaker 2: to achieving their goals without getting us to come in.
Speaker 7: They were running low on interceptors.
Speaker 2: I mean, I actually think I think that's another important
Speaker 2: aspect of like, Okay, if you ask, well, why did
Speaker 2: they agree to this at this point, I think, yes,
Speaker 2: the Iranians. It doesn't surprise me they were looking for
Speaker 2: an off ramp because as I said before, they were
Speaker 2: not looking for an on ramp to begin with. For
Speaker 2: the Israelis. I think they likely agreed to it because
Speaker 2: they were having this issue with interceptors running low. We
Speaker 2: don't know how much damage they were taking, but they
Speaker 2: took some significant amount of image in Tel Aviv and
Speaker 2: Haifa and other places. And so I think they accepted
Speaker 2: this as a way to effectively regroup and you know,
Speaker 2: have this sort of planned down as like a phased
Speaker 2: war approach. And so that's likely why they were willing
Speaker 2: to say, Okay, fine, we will do a ceasefire. Do
Speaker 2: you think they mean we're now going to have permanent peace?
Speaker 2: You think that No, of course not. Because the other
Speaker 2: piece of this, and it does get lost sometimes is
Speaker 2: really important to highlight, is not only do you have
Speaker 2: you know, this is a multi decade goal of Netanyahu
Speaker 2: and other Israeli governments, A huge mass is really public
Speaker 2: support for it as well, but this also what are
Speaker 2: we not having as much time to talk about when
Speaker 2: we are endlessly having to cover whether we are you know,
Speaker 2: in this war and not in this war, and what
Speaker 2: bombs were dropping and what it accomplished whatever. It makes
Speaker 2: it very difficult to really focus on what is happening
Speaker 2: in Gaza, and what is happening in Gaza is horrific.
Speaker 2: I mean, it really may be some of the worst
Speaker 2: things we have ever seen.
Speaker 7: The entire population crowded.
Speaker 2: Into a heiny space, rampant you know, disease and waste
Speaker 2: and horror. And then you have these near daily, if
Speaker 2: not daily, aid massacres that are just ongoing. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is just what's happening in Gaza right now. And
Speaker 2: so ron Is also provides cover for net Yahoo to
Speaker 2: be able to finish his ethnic cleansing and genocide in
Speaker 2: Gaza and in the West Bank as well. That is
Speaker 2: that is the you know, another big piece of this
Speaker 2: picture that we can't move miss out on, which is
Speaker 2: something that Professor Mehersheimer highlighted yesterday as well, that that's
Speaker 2: a really important piece of understanding their motivations and what
Speaker 2: is going on here. So that motivation is not going
Speaker 2: to go away. The longtime desire to destroy Iran and
Speaker 2: make it so it cannot possibly be anything approaching a
Speaker 2: competitor to Israel in the region, that is gone. And
Speaker 2: let me just say, you know, for the for the
Speaker 2: neocons out there who say, you know, good, let's let's
Speaker 2: let that happen and let's make Ran a failed state
Speaker 2: or install the Sharer, whatever fairy tale fantasy.
Speaker 7: The outcome they have in mind. You think it stops.
Speaker 2: There, I mean next then they'll say, well, what about Pakistan?
Speaker 2: Pakistan could be a challenge to us, or maybe it's
Speaker 2: what about Turkey. Turkey could be a challenge to us,
Speaker 2: Like you cannot bomb your way to safety and security
Speaker 2: in the region. Israel is making themselves the most hated
Speaker 2: country in the world right now. That is not a
Speaker 2: way to make you and your people and your security.
Speaker 2: There is not a way to create safety for your
Speaker 2: own people. So this logic never stops. Even if they
Speaker 2: get their disastrous war, you know that ends in complete
Speaker 2: chaos and misery in Iran, Even then, the logic doesn't stop.
Speaker 7: So that's where we are.
Speaker 2: Any any other thoughts on this saga before we move on,
Speaker 2: because we do, we do have some other things we
Speaker 2: want to cover. But I think it's it's very very
Speaker 2: as we record this this morning, is very uncertain what
Speaker 2: is ultimately going to unfolden where we're going now.
Speaker 3: The Prime Minister's office just came out and be like
Speaker 3: all the wars goals have been accomplished from these res
Speaker 3: which again, you know, it's ridiculous. My last closing is
Speaker 3: I guess it turns out Trump can order net and
Speaker 3: Yahoo in the IDF.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 3: Interesting, Now, that's actually that's so that's a pretty key point.
Speaker 3: So if the president can indeed order the Israeli Prime
Speaker 3: Minister and the IDF to do whatever he wants to do,
Speaker 3: you should take note of that, because we were told
Speaker 3: what Israel is an independent country, they're going on their own.
Speaker 1: He couldn't stop them. What's he gonna do? Tell them? No,
Speaker 1: he just did.
Speaker 3: Their planes literally turned around in the sky. Yes, they
Speaker 3: still dropped a bomb on Tehran, but apparently it was
Speaker 3: like a radar installation and it didn't kill anybody at
Speaker 3: least according to the initial reports right now. And they
Speaker 3: were actually going in to basically raise the place to
Speaker 3: the ground in response to these ballistic missiles. So I
Speaker 3: think that's a very interesting lesson, isn't it, Because we
Speaker 3: were told repeatedly that that's not possible. It's it's definitely
Speaker 3: possible if if it's if it's something that you want
Speaker 3: to do. And by the way, Trump now tells reporters
Speaker 3: aboard Air Force One, he's not looking for regime change
Speaker 3: as long as a tentative. As a tentative ceasefire takes hold,
Speaker 3: So things are changing. Yeah, it's like things can change
Speaker 3: every single day. It would be funny, except hundreds of
Speaker 3: people are actually dead, you know, as a result of this,
Speaker 3: innocent civilians in Tehran and in Tel Aviv and all
Speaker 3: across of Israel.
Speaker 1: And who knows where things will go in terms of this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, nuclear pro and you've made it much more likely
Speaker 2: that Israel.
Speaker 7: I mean that Iran.
Speaker 2: Israel already has large nuclear word one hundreds of nuclear
Speaker 2: web Yeah, at least ninety that we know of for sure,
Speaker 2: that's two hundred.
Speaker 1: I think Colin Powell said two hundred. Really, Wiki leagues,
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I have to go back. It's been
Speaker 1: a while since I looked at it.
Speaker 7: They have a lot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Iran has zero, and now Iran has much more
Speaker 2: motivation and pursue one. So great, and by the way,
Speaker 2: around the world, other countries are watching those going really, yeah,
Speaker 2: I really need to get Maybe I need a nuke
Speaker 2: so these people can fuck with me, because that seems
Speaker 2: to be the only thing that will deter us and
Speaker 2: the Israelis from coming in and trying to destroy your
Speaker 2: entire country. Here we go, all right, It is primary
Speaker 2: day in the New York City mayoral race. As a reminder,
Speaker 2: Griffin and Ryan will be in New York City too
Speaker 2: night at the Zoron Mom Donnie election night watch party,
Speaker 2: so hopefully we're going to be able to grab Zoron.
Speaker 2: We've got some other people that we're going to be
Speaker 2: able to talk to that I think you're going to
Speaker 2: be excited about. Emily and I are going to be
Speaker 2: here at home sort of head heading that live stream
Speaker 2: or whatever, being playing quarterback on that live stream so
Speaker 2: that they can go and grab people. And we're also
Speaker 2: going to cover whatever news comes down today because God
Speaker 2: knows by tonight what state of the world we're going
Speaker 2: to be in. So that's going to kick off at
Speaker 2: eight point thirty. Thank you so much the premium subscribers
Speaker 2: who made this possible, you know, to do an extra
Speaker 2: show today obviously cost to be able to travel and
Speaker 2: get the right equipment and get the set up and
Speaker 2: all of that sort of stuff, So really really appreciate
Speaker 2: you guys. If you all can support us at Breakingpoints
Speaker 2: dot com, that's where you can also become a premium
Speaker 2: subscriber and get.
Speaker 7: All the goodies that that entails.
Speaker 2: So all of that being said, Zoron mom Donnie and
Speaker 2: Brad Lander, who have cross endorsed each other.
Speaker 7: Lander is another.
Speaker 2: Local elected official who's progressive, has a close alliance with AOC,
Speaker 2: so they cross endorsed each other. It's also significant because
Speaker 2: Lander is the highest Jewish elected official in the city.
Speaker 2: And given the fact that a core strategy of the
Speaker 2: Cuomo campaign has been to smear Zoron as an anti Semite,
Speaker 2: that cross endorsement and you know, plan to say like, Okay,
Speaker 2: my supporters, you need to rank Zoron and zorn support
Speaker 2: supporters need to rank Brad Lander. That has been I
Speaker 2: think very significant, very important to his campaign. So the
Speaker 2: two of them went on Colbert last night together and
Speaker 2: lo and behold. Zoron faced questions from Stephen Colbert exactly
Speaker 2: along these lines of basically, are you an anti Semite
Speaker 2: or not?
Speaker 7: Let's go ahead and take a listen to how he responded.
Speaker 8: Mister mom donney, same question. Does the state of Israel
Speaker 8: have the right to exist?
Speaker 9: Yes, like all nations, I believe it has a right
Speaker 9: to exist in a responsibility also to uphold international law.
Speaker 8: Okay, well, let's let's talk about the elephant the room
Speaker 8: is that there are many people new York, even people
Speaker 8: who would support your candidacy otherwise who don't want to
Speaker 8: support you because of the Jewish communities, fear of the
Speaker 8: true and rising anti Semitism, not only around the world,
Speaker 8: but in this country and shamefully in New York, which
Speaker 8: is the largest Jewish population of any city other than
Speaker 8: Tel Aviv in the whole world. And they are worried.
Speaker 8: They're very upset by some of the things that you've
Speaker 8: said in the past, and they are afraid that your
Speaker 8: mayorship would actually lead to increased anti Semitism, that they
Speaker 8: believe that would be more dangerous for them. What do
Speaker 8: you say to those New Yorkers who are afraid that
Speaker 8: you wouldn't be their mayor that you wouldn't protect them.
Speaker 9: I know where that fear is coming from. It's a
Speaker 9: fear that is based upon the horrific attacks we've seen
Speaker 9: in Washington, d C. In Boulder, Colorado.
Speaker 8: It's all the way from Jews not replace us to today.
Speaker 9: And it's a fear that I hear also from New
Speaker 9: Yorkers themselves. You know, just a few days after the
Speaker 9: horrific war crime of October seventh, a friend of mine
Speaker 9: told me about how he went to his synagogue for
Speaker 9: Schabbot services, and he heard the door open behind him,
Speaker 9: and a tremor went up his spine as he turned around,
Speaker 9: not knowing who was there and what they meant for him.
Speaker 9: I spoke to a Jewish man in Williamsburg just months
Speaker 9: ago who told me that the door he left unlocked
Speaker 9: for decades is now one that he locks. And ultimately,
Speaker 9: this is because we're seeing a crisis of antisemitism, and
Speaker 9: that's why at the heart of my proposal for Department
Speaker 9: of Community Safety is a commitment to increase funding for
Speaker 9: anti hate crime programming by eight hundred percent, Because to
Speaker 9: your point, anti Semitism is not simply something that we
Speaker 9: should talk about. It's something that we have to tackle.
Speaker 9: We have to make clear there's no room for it
Speaker 9: in the city, in this country, in this world.
Speaker 8: And no justifications for violence of any kind.
Speaker 9: No, there is no room for violence.
Speaker 10: I'm a proud Jewish New Yorker raised in two Jewish kids.
Speaker 10: Here is the joy of my life. I'm the highest
Speaker 10: ranking Jewish elected official in New York City government. I'm
Speaker 10: nervous about rising anti semitism, and also I believe in
Speaker 10: the humanity and the human rights of Palestinians. And I
Speaker 10: know that it is possible hate what I support that
Speaker 10: vision of Israel's Jewish democratic state, but I hate what
Speaker 10: the Netan Yahoo government is doing in Gaza. And I've
Speaker 10: been saying that a long time. And look, you know,
Speaker 10: Mayor is going to be responsible for what happen in
Speaker 10: the Middle East. But there is something quite remarkable about
Speaker 10: a Jewish New Yorker and a Muslim New Yorker coming
Speaker 10: together to say, here's how we protect all New Yorkers.
Speaker 1: Jews, Jewish New.
Speaker 10: Yorkers and Muslim New Yorkers are not going to be
Speaker 10: divided from each other. We build a city where you
Speaker 10: have affordable housing and good schools and safe neighborhoods for everyone.
Speaker 2: So Sagra, I'm interested for your reaction. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: just preposterous to me that Israel and this, you know,
Speaker 2: smear of Zoran as a n anti Zemite has become
Speaker 2: so central in this campaign. I almost can't blame though
Speaker 2: Colbert for asking him about it, because Culomo has put
Speaker 2: it so it's front and center. And to be honest,
Speaker 2: I thought that answer from Zoren was fantastic, I mean classic, Like,
Speaker 2: first he connects on an emotional level with these personal stories,
Speaker 2: and then he's like, and that's why, here's my policy.
Speaker 2: And you're sitting there next to brad Lander, who then
Speaker 2: comes in after Zoran speaks and is like, you know,
Speaker 2: and defends him, and in a way that I think
Speaker 2: also was you know, was very powerful. So I actually
Speaker 2: think that moment probably listen, I mean, the cake is
Speaker 2: probably baked at this point anyway, But I actually think
Speaker 2: that moment ends up serving him because he handled it
Speaker 2: so well. You hear the audience with him, You've got
Speaker 2: Brent brad Lander there to also sort of validate what
Speaker 2: he's saying, and so to me, it was actually a
Speaker 2: positive opportunity that he handled quite well here going into election.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't disagree. I guess for me, it's just
Speaker 3: so tiresome that the New York City. Look, I don't
Speaker 3: live in New York.
Speaker 1: I'm not a New Yorker. New Yorkers, you do what
Speaker 1: you want.
Speaker 3: But my point is is like, look, the last thing
Speaker 3: that I honestly care about from the mayor's point of
Speaker 3: view is their views on the Israeli Palestinian conflict. You know,
Speaker 3: I've lived here, and why I actually have no idea
Speaker 3: what my own personal mayor's views are on various foreign conflicts.
Speaker 3: And I don't really care for me, it's about crosswalks,
Speaker 3: trash collection, property tax.
Speaker 2: You didn't vote on which floor, Tony, I.
Speaker 3: Care less, I really, you know, I mean, I live here,
Speaker 3: or I used to live here in Washington, d C.
Speaker 3: The nation's capital, allegedly supposedly somebody with a very powerful mayor,
Speaker 3: especially with home rule and all that. I never once
Speaker 3: was like, hey, Mayor Bowser, what are your views on Ghana?
Speaker 3: Even though she's spending plenty of time on those fours and.
Speaker 2: You promised we'll go to Israel? Then how many times.
Speaker 1: I was like, can you do something about crime?
Speaker 3: And trash collection is really annoying, and the homeless problem
Speaker 3: is really out of control, and there's too many drug
Speaker 3: addicts that are around the city. That's literally it. That's
Speaker 3: all I care about. So just the fact that everybody
Speaker 3: and all of us are like supposed to care so much.
Speaker 3: I guess, you know, in a certain sense, I understand it.
Speaker 3: This whole talking point like, oh, New York is the
Speaker 3: largest Jewish population, But again, you know, you know, we're
Speaker 3: conflating this idea the Jews of New York how the
Speaker 3: state of Israel is like directly, you know, and their
Speaker 3: views on that topic comports to the policy of their
Speaker 3: daily life in wherever they at Brooklyn, wherever.
Speaker 1: They happen to live. It also is just preposterous.
Speaker 2: It also erases the fact that Zoren actually has a
Speaker 2: lot of Jewish support. I mean, Brad Lander is one
Speaker 2: very high profile example on this coalition that they have
Speaker 2: formed together. And this is also something that's interesting about
Speaker 2: ranked choice voting is allows the possibility of these sort
Speaker 2: of cross endorsements. Michael Blake and Zorin have also cross endorsed,
Speaker 2: So that's one thing that you know, creates interesting possibilities
Speaker 2: in ranked choice voting. You know something else that brad
Speaker 2: Lander said, he was like, he was like, listen, I
Speaker 2: don't think that your views on Israel should you know,
Speaker 2: necessarily be central to New York City mayoral race. However, look,
Speaker 2: there is something powerful about this city having this alliance
Speaker 2: between you know, prominent Jewish official and a prominent Muslim official,
Speaker 2: Like that is actually a really positive and really beautiful thing,
Speaker 2: which I thought, again was like a good response to
Speaker 2: the question, But it is crazy the way that they've
Speaker 2: made this central and put it, you know, tried to
Speaker 2: persuade people that he is hates Jews and it's going
Speaker 2: to be bad for Jewish people. I mean, some of
Speaker 2: the deranged things that I've seen out.
Speaker 7: There are truly truly wild.
Speaker 2: But in reality, there is no official that has Zoro
Speaker 2: actually gets second highest Jewish support in the entire race.
Speaker 7: So what is anti.
Speaker 2: Semitic is to expect that every single Jewish voter is
Speaker 2: going to approach these questions in the same way and
Speaker 2: have the same views.
Speaker 7: What is anti.
Speaker 2: Semitic is to force every Jewish person to alide with
Speaker 2: the state that is currently committing a genocide and act
Speaker 2: like that represents every Jew in the city of New
Speaker 2: York's or around the world. So in any case, that
Speaker 2: has been very central. In terms of where the polls are,
Speaker 2: there's been a mixed bag. But we did get one
Speaker 2: poll here, you know, going right into election that we
Speaker 2: mentioned yesterday from Emerson. Can put this up on the screen.
Speaker 2: This is B two that has Zoron winning. So it
Speaker 2: has him. This is after you do all the rank
Speaker 2: choice and this and then that and whatever, and at
Speaker 2: the end in the final round, it has Zoron at
Speaker 2: fifty two percent and Cuomo at forty eight percent. Let's
Speaker 2: put the demographic split up here on the screen because
Speaker 2: this is also very interesting. You have zora On winning
Speaker 2: overall and surging by the way. The way he has
Speaker 2: come from behind has been extraordinary. He wins significantly among
Speaker 2: white voters. Cuomo's strongest base of support is among black voters.
Speaker 2: Cuomo wins Hispanic voters sixty forty, and Zoron romps among
Speaker 2: Asian voters seventy nine twenty one. Now, this is interesting.
Speaker 2: Zoron does better with men than with women. Cuomo narrowly
Speaker 2: wins women, Zoron wins a little bit by a larger
Speaker 2: margin among men. Zoran does very well among college educated,
Speaker 2: Cuomo's bases among non college educated. The generational divide here
Speaker 2: is also extraordinary. You have people under the age of fifty.
Speaker 2: Zoron wins sixty seven to thirty three, Cuomo wins fifty
Speaker 2: to fifty nine, and you've got you know, sixty plus,
Speaker 2: also very much in the Cuomo kaev Actually, apparently Cuomo's
Speaker 2: strongest age demographics is actually fifty to fifty nine, which
Speaker 2: is kind of interesting. So in any case, you've got
Speaker 2: this sort of like young, college educated, white and Asian
Speaker 2: bro dominated coalition for Zoron and then for Cuomo. You
Speaker 2: have his base as sort of like older black voters.
Speaker 2: And as we've been looking at the early voting numbers
Speaker 2: so far, they do look to be favorite like, they
Speaker 2: looks to be much more energy behind Zoron. The areas
Speaker 2: of the city in particular, you know, areas of Brooklyn
Speaker 2: where he is absolutely the strongest, have been showing up
Speaker 2: in droves. Young people have been showing up in a
Speaker 2: way that you know is highly unusual, if not unprecedented
Speaker 2: for early voting. And one other thing that people are
Speaker 2: pointing to Sager is the heat in the city today
Speaker 2: is unbelievable. Griffin was just texting as supposed to be
Speaker 2: like one hundred and fourteen in the Bronx, the Bronx
Speaker 2: and Staten Island being the two boroughs that are strongest
Speaker 2: for Cuomos. So, you know, given that his base Zoron
Speaker 2: is almost certainly ahead in the early vote, which is
Speaker 2: pretty impressive. He has a massive number of volunteers. Coulomo
Speaker 2: really has to depend on strong election day turnout, and
Speaker 2: his base is more elderly. That's why the heat can
Speaker 2: potentially come into play. But listen, that's one poll. Most
Speaker 2: of the poles have shown Cuomo winning. Some of them
Speaker 2: have shown him winning by you know, as much as
Speaker 2: ten points. So this is really it's anybody's game. It
Speaker 2: could truly go either way at this point.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and you know what's fascinating to me
Speaker 3: is for Cuomo is the fact that it's even this
Speaker 3: close is honestly humiliating. And actually one of his Flowers
Speaker 3: advisors did a very good job of summing it up.
Speaker 3: Let's put B three please up on the screen again.
Speaker 3: I reiterate, this is a guy who used to work
Speaker 3: for Andrew Cuomo. A grim and joyless campaign as befits,
Speaker 3: a battle for a prize never wanted, one long viewed
Speaker 3: with disdain and contempt, as a trifle that only lesser
Speaker 3: men would debase themselves to seek victory if it comes
Speaker 3: at all, will be bandaged with tinmy fan fa strident
Speaker 3: gloat to muffle the voice at the center that won't
Speaker 3: stop whispering.
Speaker 1: I'm hollow, brutal man, I mean, that is savage. This
Speaker 1: is how.
Speaker 7: This dude.
Speaker 1: Hey, listen, honestly, it's poetic. That's that's well written.
Speaker 3: I could never come up with something like that just
Speaker 3: off the top of my head, but it does demonstrate,
Speaker 3: you know, the real problems that they have. I will
Speaker 3: say a couple of things for Zorn. First of all,
Speaker 3: obviously he's run a decent campaign. I mean, he's running
Speaker 3: nice a good campaign, got a lot of a lot
Speaker 3: of excitement, a lot of lower propensity voters, use social media, podcasting,
Speaker 3: et cetera to really get his message out there, got
Speaker 3: a lot of progressives to endorse him.
Speaker 1: So there's that.
Speaker 3: But second, it's equally a tale of the failure of
Speaker 3: the New York Democratic establishment, because the New York Democratic
Speaker 3: Establishment correctly kicked Andrew Croomo out of office over me too.
Speaker 1: But really what they should have kicked him out for
Speaker 1: was his handling of COVID.
Speaker 3: It was a disaster.
Speaker 1: This guy's there his blood.
Speaker 3: On his hands of elderly people because of his policy
Speaker 3: and then light about and all of this is confirmed
Speaker 3: I mean by his own government basically at the time.
Speaker 3: And yet they still allowed him to like trapes on
Speaker 3: in and to try and to seize it based.
Speaker 1: On his own name recognition alone. So there's those two.
Speaker 3: It's really a Hillary dynamic to be honest, like a
Speaker 3: deeply terrible candidate who comes in here and is just
Speaker 3: like I'm the king or the queen.
Speaker 1: I deserve this.
Speaker 3: It's my time because of who I am and my
Speaker 3: last name, and then you have upstart campaign. I also
Speaker 3: think Zoron has a lot of political benefit or a
Speaker 3: lot of political wins at his back. Cuomo's out here
Speaker 3: supporting the Iran strike, like Cuomo's out here running the
Speaker 3: whole anti semi you know thing against so Soron is
Speaker 3: the guy who's got, you know, the anti Trump energy
Speaker 3: really at his back at a very critical time when
Speaker 3: the Democratic base is very, very fired up. So look,
Speaker 3: it's a classic insurgent versus you know, you just ostified
Speaker 3: establishment story. If he does win, and even if he
Speaker 3: does come close, again, it's embarrassing.
Speaker 1: It's deeply embarrassing for Andrew Kuama.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So to that point about the different campaigns that
Speaker 2: they have run, Zorn concluded his campaign walking the length
Speaker 2: of the island of Manhattan, recording these videos with supporters.
Speaker 2: I read an account from a journalist who walked with
Speaker 2: him that entire length and was sort of expecting that
Speaker 2: in northern Manhattan, you know, these are more and I
Speaker 2: used to live in this area. There's are more like
Speaker 2: working class areas. There's a lot of rent stabilized apartments,
Speaker 2: very diverse in particularly walking through areas that are majority Dominican,
Speaker 2: Spanish language speakers, et cetera.
Speaker 7: And this reporter was like.
Speaker 2: You know, I kind of expected he wouldn't get as
Speaker 2: much hype there because that's not my impression of what
Speaker 2: his base was.
Speaker 7: And he was like people were flooding.
Speaker 2: Him, every mobbing him everywhere anyway, was a celebrity everywhere
Speaker 2: he went throughout the entire city. And so let's go
Speaker 2: ahead and take a look at a little bit of
Speaker 2: the video and the vibe from that walk down the
Speaker 2: length of the island of Manhattan.
Speaker 7: This is before guys go ahead and play this.
Speaker 9: We have just begun our walk through the entirety Manhattan.
Speaker 9: Where inwood Hill Park at.
Speaker 11: The tip top we're outside because New York is deserving
Speaker 11: mayna that they can see, they can hear, they can
Speaker 11: even yell up, good bro elections on Tuesday, Tuesday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everybody pray.
Speaker 9: Yes, sir, yes, sir, Thank you brother.
Speaker 11: You have climbed six floor walk ups and braved the
Speaker 11: pouring rain to canvas hour City. Wait, we both have
Speaker 11: canvas for you.
Speaker 4: I am sorry, but the days of moral victories are
Speaker 4: over because this is a campaign that is going to
Speaker 4: win on June twenty four.
Speaker 5: All right, where are we headed?
Speaker 7: A lot of bros in that video? Sorry?
Speaker 2: You know the Democratic Party is serious about, like, hey,
Speaker 2: how do we win back these young men? They might
Speaker 2: want to do something other than just do everything they
Speaker 2: can to try to destroy this candidate who clearly shows
Speaker 2: some promis and is like struck a nerve and it
Speaker 2: really does tell you everything about like just how terrible
Speaker 2: the Democrats truly are and why they are so stuck
Speaker 2: and why they lose. I mean, this is a talented politician,
Speaker 2: Like he is a talented guy. He from this come
Speaker 2: from behind campaign, lightning in a bottle. Whether or not
Speaker 2: he wins, vastly exceeded anyone's expectations. And their reaction to
Speaker 2: that is to do everything they possibly can to crush it. So,
Speaker 2: in contrast to how Zoran is closing his campaign, Cuomo
Speaker 2: is closing his campaign. First of all, Griffin went out
Speaker 2: and was like, I really am having trouble even finding
Speaker 2: a video a Cromo like in his campaign closing here,
Speaker 2: and I think everyone would acknowledge Ross Barkin, who was
Speaker 2: a great New York journalist who've had.
Speaker 7: On the show.
Speaker 2: Coulomo's run an absolutely abysmal, lazy, tired campaign, But his
Speaker 2: final move here was to go deep back to the
Speaker 2: Democratic well and enlist former President Bill Clinton to record
Speaker 2: an ad for him. I guess sex past stick together.
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to B seven.
Speaker 6: Hello, this is President Bill Clinton. I'm calling to urge
Speaker 6: you to vote for Andrew Cuomo for Mayor of New
Speaker 6: York City. Early voting is open now in election days
Speaker 6: this Tuesday. I chose Andrew to be my Secretary of
Speaker 6: Housing in Urban Development because he knew how to get
Speaker 6: things done. Together. We worked for years delivering for working people,
Speaker 6: lowering homelessness, revitalizing neighborhoods, and bringing real investment to communities
Speaker 6: that had been left behind. As governor, he built a
Speaker 6: new Laguadia, expanded public transit, raised the minimum wage, and
Speaker 6: passed marriage equality. Now New York needs real leadership on
Speaker 6: affordable housing, public safety, and genuine opportunity. And Andrew's ready
Speaker 6: to deliver. He's a fighter who knows how to make
Speaker 6: government work. And at a time when our basic rights
Speaker 6: are under assault. No, he'll stand up and protect the
Speaker 6: people in this city. So make your voice heard. Vote
Speaker 6: early or show up on Tuesday, and please vote for
Speaker 6: Andrew Cuomo for Mayor of New York City.
Speaker 1: Inspiring stuff soccer, yes, deeply, but who knows.
Speaker 3: I mean, look, it could still work. I guess we
Speaker 3: also have this attack from Andrew Cuomo. B eight guys,
Speaker 3: let's take a listen.
Speaker 12: LA's and chaos. Now Trump's coming for New York. You
Speaker 12: think a thirty three year old legislator who's passed three
Speaker 12: bills can stop him. Andrew Cuomo's managed to state and
Speaker 12: manage crises from COVID to Trump. We need someone experience
Speaker 12: to stop him. People by Cuomo for NYC Inc.
Speaker 3: There's been ocean of money coming in from Oh yeah, Clomo.
Speaker 3: I mean, somebody showed me a bar chart and it
Speaker 3: was insane. It's like ten to one margin in terms
Speaker 3: of his spending. So if he does win, it'll be
Speaker 3: at a very very very low margin, and largely it
Speaker 3: will probably be a story of what it's like older
Speaker 3: black voters, right Jewish voters as well, basically who save him?
Speaker 3: It's probably really a tale of name recognition if I
Speaker 3: had to guess, oh yeah, you know, on his side.
Speaker 1: So, I mean, look, that's the other thing here.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to underestimate the Democratic establishment, even as
Speaker 3: weak and you know, horrible, disgusting all of that as
Speaker 3: they can be, they.
Speaker 1: Still have a couple of tricks and things up there.
Speaker 3: Sleep Jim Clyburn came out for Andrew Croma, which what, like,
Speaker 3: I know, dude, you're from South Carolina.
Speaker 1: What do you even have an incentive here? It's like, wow,
Speaker 1: we know the incentive.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm shocked. Actually Obama didn't decide to jump in
Speaker 7: and make sure of that too.
Speaker 3: Actually yeah, I mean Clinton kind of makes sense. I
Speaker 3: think he lives in New York so and he spends
Speaker 3: a lot of time in New York City, but whatever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but his headquarters.
Speaker 3: Whatever, the Clinton Global Initiative, I think, is in Harlem.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: But you know, the other corollary to this is if
Speaker 3: Zorn does win, will just be the billionaire freak out.
Speaker 7: It's gonna be delicious.
Speaker 2: They're already proof for you to out, that's preloaded, is
Speaker 2: locked and loaded, ready to go.
Speaker 3: All because I actually think it would be very healthy
Speaker 3: for New York because New York's taxation system is completely
Speaker 3: stupid and it's like ten people pay like forty percent
Speaker 3: of the taxes. They basically designed it so that it's
Speaker 3: basically it's heavily reliant on Wall Street and ulter rich
Speaker 3: financiers and a lot of the more working class, middle
Speaker 3: class and even upper middle class like have less of
Speaker 3: a stake like in how things are all run. This
Speaker 3: is bad because it actually gives way too much outsize
Speaker 3: power to these guys and be like, I'm gonna move
Speaker 3: to Palm Beach and they're like, no, please don't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we can't pay our bills if you don't.
Speaker 3: So their whole financing structure actually does need to be
Speaker 3: totally redone. So it would be good. It would actually
Speaker 3: be a good thing if all of the super rich
Speaker 3: left New York City.
Speaker 1: It would be affordable.
Speaker 2: Again, Like they threatened to do this over build a
Speaker 2: Blasio too, and they didn't. And but actually the n
Speaker 2: I saw chart the number of millionaires went.
Speaker 7: Up in the city after de Blasio gets elected.
Speaker 3: So but see it's actually it's really not a millionaire question.
Speaker 3: It's more like one hundred millionaire because that's again the insanity.
Speaker 3: The New York system is how much is reliant on
Speaker 3: the people who make like two or three hundred million
Speaker 3: and or are billionaires.
Speaker 1: But yeah, is Wall Street going to go anywhere?
Speaker 6: No?
Speaker 3: I don't think so, we'll see. I means it'll be fun.
Speaker 3: I personally, it'll be fun to watch no matter what.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely so again, guys, we'll be covering it
Speaker 2: live tonight.
Speaker 7: Make sure you tune in.
Speaker 2: Emily and I will be here, Ryan and Griffin will
Speaker 2: be up in New York covering this live, and we
Speaker 2: will all find out together what happens. Assuming they're aim
Speaker 2: about their ballots. That's right, big question mark.