1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:06,399
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio.

2
00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:17,319
Speaker 2: News, the single best idea first day at June, first

3
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 2: business day at June, final bunt of Q two, Uncertainty

4
00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,479
Speaker 2: in the air, in the ground, everywhere, and it was

5
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 2: just an odd, odd Monday. So what you do is

6
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,280
Speaker 2: you don't so much blow up the show as you

7
00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:38,000
Speaker 2: piece it together. In our team, Eric and the interns,

8
00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:42,000
Speaker 2: they pieced it together in the six to seven, even

9
00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,440
Speaker 2: in the eight o'clock hour. What an honor to have

10
00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,120
Speaker 2: Olivia Blanchard with us today to make comments on the

11
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 2: life of Stanley Fisher is just magisterial for him to

12
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:56,360
Speaker 2: talk the stories we talked about. Oh the time Samuelson

13
00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,440
Speaker 2: was so angry he grabbed the chalk out of stan

14
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:02,840
Speaker 2: Fisher's hand, through it against the wall. Blanchard said, Madigliani

15
00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,720
Speaker 2: was actually worse. Great vignettes there, but also there was

16
00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,119
Speaker 2: a weaker dollar on short notice. Thrilled to have Jordan

17
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:13,960
Speaker 2: Rochester with again from a Zuo piercing analysis. Look for

18
00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,960
Speaker 2: his good work out on LinkedIn. Here is Jordan Rochester

19
00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:18,000
Speaker 2: of Miszouo.

20
00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,640
Speaker 1: Well, as we learned this through Trump's first term, it's

21
00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,559
Speaker 1: so noisy, ton't that it's very easy to get yourself

22
00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,399
Speaker 1: lost in the woods and miss the big trades that

23
00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,000
Speaker 1: happen in the background. And I think this de dollarization

24
00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:30,960
Speaker 1: is a big trade that will carry on. I think

25
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,039
Speaker 1: the Europeans building up their defense spending. You just had

26
00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,480
Speaker 1: the UK over the weekend or today announced the increasing

27
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 1: spending on submarines. So you're going to miss that big

28
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,560
Speaker 1: structural improvement in European growth expectations if you focus too

29
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,000
Speaker 1: much much on what comes out of the Oval Office,

30
00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: taris on tarasof or the taco trade as some people

31
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,680
Speaker 1: talk about it. But I do worry about the summer's

32
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,000
Speaker 1: event risks. The calendar is pretty positive for defense spending.

33
00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,040
Speaker 1: We've got the G seven summit, the NATO Summit, and

34
00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,280
Speaker 1: the EU Defense Summit all in the last two weeks

35
00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,800
Speaker 1: of June. That could be trade deals secured with US

36
00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:04,600
Speaker 1: and Japan. That might be a bit of a positive.

37
00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:06,920
Speaker 1: I worry about the Europeans. I don't think they're going

38
00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,960
Speaker 1: to get a deal before the July ninth cut off,

39
00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,480
Speaker 1: the date when the reciprocal tariffs shift high for Europe,

40
00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 1: and if that's the case, the ECB will have to

41
00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,320
Speaker 1: cut rates. In my opinion, in July there's only six

42
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,600
Speaker 1: basis points priced for that meeting, so we'll find out

43
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:21,880
Speaker 1: on Thursday how doubles they are.

44
00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,520
Speaker 2: Jordan Rochester there my head spinning on European dates, but

45
00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,119
Speaker 2: he's got them in too. We'll keep our eye on that.

46
00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 2: Joining us as well from Bank of America. And this

47
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,240
Speaker 2: is something odd for us in the financial media. We

48
00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,400
Speaker 2: love to talk to bank executives. What's the FED going

49
00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,280
Speaker 2: to do? And all that drives me absolutely bonkers. Today

50
00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,360
Speaker 2: in the plumbing of the Bank of America, we had

51
00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,959
Speaker 2: Sharon Miller off of their Texas shop. She's in charge

52
00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:52,960
Speaker 2: of all of their business relationships for Brian moynihan and

53
00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 2: the team. Here is Sharon Miller on the pulse of

54
00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,280
Speaker 2: American small business.

55
00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,240
Speaker 3: I have been head of small Business for the past

56
00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,760
Speaker 3: eight years at Bank of America, and what I have

57
00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:08,000
Speaker 3: seen from our clients is resilience. They go through different things. COVID,

58
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,720
Speaker 3: we went through COVID, We went through all different types

59
00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 3: of crisis. And you've got to look at the data

60
00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 3: versus what people are saying. And so we do see

61
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,560
Speaker 3: in our data and we you know, we look at

62
00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,960
Speaker 3: all areas of the country. The Northeast has not fared

63
00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,079
Speaker 3: as well as the South, and so as you think

64
00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:29,960
Speaker 3: about what's actually happening from region to region, industry to industry,

65
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,560
Speaker 3: it's not all the same, but I would see overall

66
00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:34,800
Speaker 3: the health of business is strong.

67
00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 2: Sharon Miller, the Bank of America. An eventful week on

68
00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,720
Speaker 2: a jobs Day on Friday. A lot of economic data

69
00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,560
Speaker 2: here the first week of the month, including market moving

70
00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,960
Speaker 2: data here on Monday, really difficult ten am numbers at

71
00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:53,080
Speaker 2: ism manufacturing in all that again across this nation. And

72
00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 2: your commute on serious XEM channel one, twenty one, Apple CarPlay,

73
00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,360
Speaker 2: Android Auto and of course ninety nine ninety two nine

74
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,440
Speaker 2: fm UH and Bloomberg eleventh three h on the East Coast,

75
00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 2: we say good morning to you. Out of YouTube, subscribe

76
00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,520
Speaker 2: to Bloomberg podcast building each and every day and on

77
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:22,080
Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea