WEBVTT - Surveillance: Powell is Not Massive Regime Change, Wieting Says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:12.960 Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:33.320 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. We 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:34.879 begin there with the main event of the week for me. 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:37.320 It's Chairman Powell, who took over, of course from Janet 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:41.159 Yellen this month, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.120 then the Senate Banking Committee two days later in what's 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:48.000 known as the Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, the first time since 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:51.879 Powell was sworn in that we as market observers and 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:55.279 you as market participants, get a chance to pass every 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:58.360 single word from the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:01.480 Johnny Us to discusses. Steve Ye City Private Bank Global 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.560 Chief strategisticly joined us here in New York City. Good 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:07.720 morning and happy Monday to you, Steve. Happy Monday. Did 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:10.080 they exist on a note? Maybe they exist today it 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.040 is let's get let's get up to Spain on what 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:15.200 to expect Tuesday through to Thursday. What are we looking 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:17.520 for from Shaman Pal Steve Well I think it's what 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.800 we can't anticipate that's interesting. You know, we have the 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.040 policy report to Congress, we have the new projections, we've 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:27.720 had the last Fed minutes. If there is any nuance 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:31.800 as to how the Chairman can talk to us about 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:35.160 viewing the outlook differently, you know, to a certain extent, 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:38.000 they feel more confident about the course that they are on. 0:01:38.200 --> 0:01:40.920 But how much more confident does it make them actually 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:44.240 think about changing the policy view to one that's a 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:48.560 little bit more robust. How do they want to fight inflation? 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.560 To what extent? Are they really playing the old game, 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:55.040 which is pushing down inflation at every time we see 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.800 a chance to do it, or are we just satisfied 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:00.400 to see it rise to the two and a half 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.200 percent range? You know that they say is constitutes at 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:05.520 least short term price stability. States to what extent should 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.320 they be trying to find inflation at this point? Well, 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:12.519 I think that most prudently, we have to care about 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.799 what the next downturn will look like. And it's not 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:19.120 to say that there's one immediately on the horizon, but 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:24.640 if you are essentially avoiding any financial excesses, and you 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:28.600 really think about what unwinding financial access is does to 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:32.800 the future economic outlook and the inflation rate, then you 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:35.400 don't want to have to fight a deep deflation later 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:38.360 on in an economic downturn. So that's why you know 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:42.160 this modest, mild policy snugging that we're doing here, which 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.919 is really way below the standards of past cycles. It's 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:47.840 half a historic tightening cycle. You know, it still matters 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:50.080 to do this when inflation is low. And again we 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:53.200 can talk about how the December CPI print was half 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:55.359 a percent. I don't think we're going to see every 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.680 single month is going to be, you know, annualizing at 0:02:57.720 --> 0:02:59.440 four and a half percent. I think one thing that 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:00.959 a lot of paper of trying to get their heads 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.400 around is how different sham and pound might be to 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.840 form a chair yelling how do you expect to spread 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:08.760 to widen? Is it going to narrow? How do we 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:11.760 recon style the difference? Because right now I think overwhelmingly 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:13.840 the consensus of the amount of people that I speak 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.040 to is typically this is yelling two point out, that's 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:19.280 Jerome Powell. It's not the way you see things, or 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:22.560 do you see things differently well compared to the discussion 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:26.760 um perhaps John Taylor or Kevin Walsh, you know, some 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:28.560 of the people who were brought up in the process 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.000 of vetting a new FED chair. Uh. You know, we 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:34.239 did have policy comments from Jerome Pool in the past. 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:38.080 You know, we've had him articulate the Fed's view of 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:41.840 the economy and how monetary policy should unfold in the past, 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.600 and so we wanted to understand, you know, to what 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:49.440 extent that reflects respect for Yelling's views or is really 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:51.600 going to break new ground going forward. But I certainly 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.520 feel a lot more comfortable when I did at the 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:55.840 time of the appointment that we are not having a 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:59.400 massive regime change in policy making here. The fact is 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:03.080 in is correct me from wrong Stephen John Wood? Um, 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:09.720 the fact is we don't know j. Powell's monetary beliefs. 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:13.760 We really haven't heard enough yet, have we. Well, look, 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:19.200 we do have some specific monetary policy speeches. Maybe this 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:21.880 is not what he spent his life wanting to do, perhaps, 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:27.600 but we have seen like you know what that let 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.200 me just jump in. I'm with Tom. This was the 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:33.040 fight the quiet governor on the FED board. Yes, we've 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:36.320 got a couple of speeches, but his whole modus operande 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.600 was just to go out there and not annoy anyone. 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.200 He was a follower of whoever was leading. He was 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:43.200 not out there as the leader on the FED boar 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:46.920 board making big speeches that would disrupt the flow of 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:50.000 decision making, like say lele brain it. This guy was 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:53.240 just the quiet governor of the president then, right, So 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:57.440 you know we are all of the view, particularly after 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:02.240 seeing minutes after seeing the policy report to Congress, you 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.400 know that this is a FED that is right now 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:07.320 steering in the same direction as the yell and Fed. 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:09.159 And that's what can get interesting about this. If there's 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.560 something that we don't know about the whole policy approach 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.640 here now. Uh, certainly each chairman will have the deal 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:18.920 with challenges in their own particular way. There might be 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:23.080 some underlying philosophy, uh that we don't know yet, and 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:24.840 whether any of that will come out in this testimony 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:27.359 will be quite interesting. But that's what's what makes this interesting. 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.240 This is a first you know, Humphrey Hawkins round for 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:31.880 a new FED share and you're gotta should be all 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:34.080 over it. How do we establish what the power put 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.400 looks like. We've had the Greenspan put and Andy put, 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:38.800 the yell and put three bond managers speaking to me 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.320 on Friday, trying to work out whether we have a 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:44.160 power put? Do we have a power put? Absolutely critical 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:46.839 to sort of understand that in the sense that you know, 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:50.400 what is their reaction function? How protective of this economic 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:54.320 expansion do they want to be right now? And look, 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.680 I think if you were taking a look from the outside, 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.200 you would say the US economy has been head being 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:04.160 fully towards its potential. There we're showing signs of compensation 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:07.200 gains that are accelerating, but from such a low level 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.080 and after such a deep downturn almost a decade ago, 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:13.400 that we ought to let this run. Some one of 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:17.680 your charms, Steve Whiting, is you actually pay attention to 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.600 what corporations do. I mean, like what they say? What 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:23.720 are they saying right now? Is you look confidence called 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:27.839 the late uh John Farrow, the late Richard Yamaron of 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:32.520 Bloomberg was expert at this. Just listen to what people 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:36.159 say and do. What are they saying besides giving token 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:41.080 thousand dollar raises to the troops and blathering about all 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.160 the money they're gonna save is a gross stub off 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:47.320 the text cut act. There's an underlying sense of optimism. 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:50.080 If you just take a look at the various survey 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.400 measures and you take a look. Okay, there are lots 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:56.240 of cautious comments, as always, all the qualifiers that are 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:58.960 needed for legal reasons around these things. But you take 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:01.599 a look at any of these business confidence measures and 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:03.640 you don't see something that is out of line. You 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:05.960 know what you'll hear with earnings reports that they think 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.240 times will be strong for two thousand eighteen and two 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:13.040 thousand nineteen small businesses, large businesses, and the economy has 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:16.960 not really stepped up to that level of confidence yet. 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:19.520 But you know this again, as as you said on 0:07:19.520 --> 0:07:22.080 the television, there's probably someplace for it to meet in 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.120 the middle, because some of these readings on confidence are 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.760 way off the charts. Steve Winning, it's going to have 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:44.080 you with us the City Private Bankalect Chief Strategy. The 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:47.440 medium term was such an interesting concept, Carston Rescue with 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.200 us with I n G. Right, Now, what's the medium 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:52.480 term to you? It's like a European phrase. Nobody in 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.960 America is looking at the the medium term. It's the 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:59.680 a C B term, isn't it. It's a mont policy prodstability, 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.720 a medium term. I was just thinking about on China 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.680 in journey. We have Mrs Merkel, she's already heading off 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:11.160 for the for the fourth term. Already is pretty much Chinese. 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:14.120 The medium term, John is trying to get the Boston 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:16.360 Red Socks the fourth of July. It is that, right, 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:18.520 that's the medium term. We're gonna go and watch a 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:21.480 game this this summer. I'm looking forward to that. Should 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:23.360 I get you to the short term? The short term? 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:26.320 What we're focusing on this week in Europe, the Italian 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:29.840 election this weekend. Custom Breziski of of iron G used 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:31.640 to help me work out what was going on in 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:34.240 Greece on almost a daily basis when I was back 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:36.000 in London, and now you've got to work out what's 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.880 going on in Italy. Now it's an uncertain election in 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:40.720 the minds of so many people. We had Italian bonds 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.240 are pretty well bid and yields are lower by a 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:45.640 considerable amount. Today we're coming again by about four or 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:48.120 five basis points ahead of an at Tangan election that 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:51.120 maybe brings someone that a number of years ago was 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:55.839 incredibly anti European, anti euro into the into the mix. Carston, 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:57.720 Should I be worried about this weekend? Because it doesn't 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.640 see many people are I think you shouldn't. There are 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:03.360 a couple of factors, and the Italian system is so 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.520 complex and complicated. You know that they party reformed their 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:11.680 electorate system um a strange combination between when when it 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:15.280 takes at all and proportionate electorate system. But it simply 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:18.800 means there will be no single party getting the absolute majority. 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:20.920 So we're gonna we're gonna get some kind of a 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:24.320 coalition at best. So let's be clear here for investors, 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:26.840 what was a problem to many political analysts is that 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:29.440 things can't get done in Italy is actually a benefit 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.600 to the investor base because it doesn't matter who gets in, 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.000 they won't get things done exactly. I think that right 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.959 now is a benefit. Plus, there is no single party 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.760 actually going for Italy leaving the year zone anymore. That 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:43.439 is the fear that we had last year or a 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.160 couple of years ago, to even this five Star Movement 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.880 party actually is not arguing in favor of Italy leaving 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.040 the year zone anymore. But part of the dynamic here 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:56.040 of everyone including myself, being calmer about Italy is they're 0:09:56.040 --> 0:10:00.439 generating some form of economic growth. Is you look hardston 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.920 country to country. Can you state that the United States 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.959 of Europe has a better little g that the economic 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:12.680 growth nation the nation is actually stable and stained and buoyant. 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:16.959 It is, although when you look at Italy, Italy is 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.240 still one of the legards and Italy is benefiting from 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:23.560 the Eurozone cycle, but it's still legging behind. And I 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:25.559 think that that is. You know, on the one it's 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:27.960 positive for Italy right now because also as soon as 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.319 you have a job, you're not voting against the EU anymore. 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:32.840 So this also means there is less support for for 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.679 anti euro parties in Italy, but at the same time, 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.840 it doesn't mean that Italy is off the hook. Custom 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:42.400 how fragile is this recovery across the continent? A huge 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.320 amount of optimism around it. I'm just wondering how fragile 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:49.160 actually is um. You know, I agree with you being 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:51.840 a bit pessimistic, but I think it's not so fragile 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.800 because it really it is broadening across sectors. We do 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:57.400 have the export sector, which which is fine and which 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:00.800 can even even digest as stronger era. We have investment 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:03.440 picking up on the back of the ECB. The e 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.960 c B is not going to change its policies anytime soon. 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:08.520 We have consumption going on, so it's not so fragile. 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.200 The perception of the e c B changing its policies 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:14.120 may well changed quite radically. There's a really interesting piece 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:16.160 in the Financial Times over the weekend. I'm sure many 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:18.880 of our listeners read it. It was lunch with Jens 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.839 Vitemin of the Bundesbank, Lunch with the ens vironment. In 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:24.640 the minds of many people, it's Videman running for president 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.120 of the e c B. Now of YenS Vidman the 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.839 one individual that many people suspect, suspect disagreed with Mario 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.360 Dragi over the whatever it takes speech, the one individual 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:37.720 on the ECB Government Council that did that. If that 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.640 individual then becomes the president of the e c B, 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.960 what are we meant to think of that? Um? I 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.320 think Vidman is extremely good and also playing his role. 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.000 Let's also be honest, he's not as dogmatic as his 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:53.800 predecessors were, like Mr Weber or Mr Jurgen Stark Um, 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:55.640 So he's going to play his role. Even if he 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.240 was to become the ECB president, I think he would 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:02.000 then also immediately shift ats and and will become more 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:05.320 pro European. But let's not forget he would only take 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.280 off at the end of two thousand nineteen. Where they 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.160 go to lunch the McDonald's by liverplaces. Forgot I forgot 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:12.920 in the name of the restaurant, but it was in Frankfort. 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:15.679 It was in Frankfurt. You should read the pace. It 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.440 was quite interesting. The shortest lunch I've ever had in 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:21.120 Frankfort was two and a half hours, really the shortest. 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.520 Why did you go for lunch? I used to go 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:26.320 there all the time. I usually struggle the plates to 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.199 find a place to eat in Francs. That's true. No, 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.360 that's very true, folks, that John's custom once is so 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.280 difficult to find a place to eat in Frankfort because 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:38.199 Germans are not into eating. So this is the this 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:40.880 is they don't want to go out. This this is 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:44.160 why we need Italy in the years ago. That would 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:46.520 be true. I want to look at the polarity here 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.280 and you can do that on the Bloomberg, Folks. The 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:52.520 unemployment rate of Germany's five point four The unemployment rate 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:55.600 of Italy is in the vicinity of eleven percent. At 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.439 the end of the day. That's the tension. I mean, 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:00.880 we have the same tension in the States, but it's 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:03.600 just different. Isn't attention will go on? I think that's 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:04.960 the whole thing. When you look at it again, I 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:06.599 think it's at least not the big risk in the 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.679 short term, not not for markets, but Italy economically, in 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.520 economic policy wise, is an issue because we will get 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.640 this discussion on whether Italy will be allowed to invest 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:17.560 and to spend more. And when you look at it, 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:21.920 a hundred per ratio, I think minus or two percent 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:26.880 deficit ratio. So Italy will again bring this this very 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.840 sensitive issue back on the table in Europe. Can we 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:33.800 invest more? Can we have higher deficits to increase investment 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.040 and spending? Well? Is it Macron's Europe or or Marco's Europe? 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.400 And who gets on the green line? Um, it will 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.679 be both. The interesting thing is that Mrs Merkel again 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:48.520 is is renewing herself again? Um? So she she does yesterday. 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.160 Ums she come up with whether take a couple of 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:54.800 new posts, new young politicians coming up there? Um it 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:57.200 will be a combination, will be in mccron mercal Europe. 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:01.080 How is Mr Trump perceived now Europe? We've had very 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:04.160 little of this analysis in the United States because they're 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:08.240 so focused on domestic Trump and issues. But has there 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.640 been a shift and now the president is perceived across 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:15.160 your Europe? Honestly, no, I think if you really want 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.880 to score high in media or with clients, you do 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:21.760 some Trump bashing always always falls well in Europe. I 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:25.640 think there is there, there are, and that's fascinating now 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.400 now Here in the United States of America, the Trump 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.880 bashing seems to play well with the mainstream media, the 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.280 left wing media outlets. With investors. They don't care where 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:38.080 you stand politically. Ultimately, they want to make money cast 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.280 And now you use the word investors want to hear that. 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:43.280 Why do investors want to hear that? Why do they 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:47.800 want politically charged retric Because I think in in in 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:52.040 Europe you see that this um divide between the US 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.680 and Europe, as between economic policies between the US and 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:59.920 in Europe is um um. So many people also investors. 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:03.360 When you talk to continental European investors right now, they 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:07.400 feel remind of economics. One of the themes that we 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.080 have here, Carson, before let you go, is the idea 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:14.960 of huge fiscal policy non austerity in the United States, 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:19.520 which will lead to a diminished lower net export statistic. 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:27.760 What did you learn about export import dynamics amid EU austerity? 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:33.440 Did the trade dynamic actually assist the domestic economy? It 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:37.760 does um in two ways actually extra euro so it 0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:40.760 really we see that all countries are benefiting from the 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:43.480 weaker year that we had so far, it leads act 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:46.400 one of the main beneficiaries. Italy is exporting more in 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:50.360 absolute terms than friends does um and at the same time, 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.440 at the same time, we also do see that the 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.920 trade within the years on countries is improving. To repeat 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:59.240 that again, that's so important Italy. What do you mean 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:04.160 by apps in the units traits volume, volume volume. It's 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:08.960 exporting law than France. I would even though theever you 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:11.600 hear is fabulous, I would have never guessed at John Farrell, 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:13.400 but I didn't have that. I thought, do you know 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:15.720 that what tipped the needle? There was a Gucci store? 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.880 Is that you? Is that you? I suspect they're not 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.920 for you, but I imagine it might be. It might 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.160 be your going to see me in the fur line 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:31.320 Colin don't even start the twins wants me to try 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:35.880 out sis. We've got to say thanks to Couston and 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:38.160 then we can talk about the bill at the end 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:51.840 of a month. For you, he is the Senator from Cincinnati. 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:55.120 Rob Portman will always be from his Cincinnati, but now, 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.960 of course his representation of all of his state of 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:03.640 Ohio without question of vice presidential candidate and consideration. But 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:05.800 he said, I need to stay in a Republican Senate. 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.560 The Senator joins us here in our New York studios. 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:13.560 You're in Cincinnati, Senator Portman, March second, five miles south 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:16.600 of Michigan and Holland, Ohio. There will be a meeting 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.520 of the friends of the n r A. Right now 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:22.760 you're in the crosshairs of the n r A. You've 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:25.320 been a big uh. They've given you a lot of 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:29.560 money within the close contest of Ohio. You, Senator Governor 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.520 Scott and Florida, everyone has to adjust. How will Rob 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:37.520 Portman adjust to what we've seen in Florida. Well, we 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.800 have I need to look at this in a very broadway. 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:44.200 Let's let's face it. Um in Florida. To talk about 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:49.160 the tragedy there uh so many missed signals unbelievable this 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.520 morning hearing about more so was avoidable in the sense 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:54.960 Tom that had law enforcement have been doing their job. 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:58.560 You know, this particular young man would not have been 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:00.439 in that position even the FBI was involved. So it 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.520 wasn't it wasn't just local law enforcement. But the broader 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.280 issues include mental health and we have people falling between 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:07.320 the tracks, as you know, I do a lot of 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:10.520 work in that area, and opioids, which is related with 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.359 regard to background checks. We need to tighten them up. 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:16.119 I am. I am actually sponsoring legislation to do that. 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.639 I think Congress is likely to move towards something that 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.520 says people who shouldn't get a gun need to be 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.440 stopped through that process. And it's not happening now, partly 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:28.399 because the information is not coming in. Senator, you represent 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:32.920 the cultural divide of this debate, the toughest parts of Cleveland, 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.119 the tough parts of Cincinnati, and yet the fabric of 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:41.800 hunting America and Ohio once again provides that tapestry of America. 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:46.320 How does this nation come to grips with the toughest 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:50.320 parts of Cleveland and the fields of western Ohio. Yeah, well, 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:52.520 you know, in in Ohio there are a lot of 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:54.800 people feel very strong about the Second Amendment. I believe 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:56.800 it's it's a right that we can preserve and at 0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.560 the same time find that balance with regard to background checks, 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:02.199 let we go things like bump stocks, with regard to 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:04.440 things where to look at the age. So I think 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:06.240 there are things that that can and should be done. 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.320 I will say that with regard to downtown Cleveland, because 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.159 you mentioned that, downtown Cincinnati and downtown Columbus and so on, 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:15.000 there is a lot of gun violence. It doesn't get 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:20.320 nearly the exposure that these horrific school shootings get, but 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.520 it's happening every day, and it tends to be as 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:27.960 you know of. It probably is with a handgun, and 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.800 it tends to be with drugs and crime related to gangs. 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.440 I mean, that's that's primarily what I hear from law enforcement, 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:36.800 and that's an issue that you know. Again, I spent 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:38.480 a lot of time on this issue in terms of 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:40.120 the drug side of it, which is driving a lot 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:42.159 of this. We have to get to the bottom of 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.200 all these things because unless you do that, you will 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:48.520 continue to see this this violence perpetrated, and it's it 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:51.639 is the biggest issue in terms of gun violence is 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:55.199 the gangs and usually drug related and turf battles and 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.280 so on. So when we focus on things like stopping 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.600 this drug pandemic that has now hit my state, it 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:04.000 does have an effect as well. Senator Holp, the guest 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:07.159 of this country, understand how preserving the Second Amendment is 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:10.280 compatible with allowing the sale of our a R fifteens 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:13.960 to the general public. I'm sorry t help me understand, 0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:16.720 as a guest of this country, how preserving that amendment 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:20.840 is compatible with allowing the sales of a R fifteens 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:23.439 to member of the general public. Well, I think I 0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:25.920 think there are people who own those weapons would say 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:28.720 it's it is compatible. But what I'm saying is there's 0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:32.840 a balance here, and so I all I can say is, um, 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:35.200 you know, I think Congress ought to look at that issue. 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:37.120 We had to look at the issue of of age, 0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:39.960 because at eighteen you can purchase a rifle, whereas it 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.080 twenty one you can purchase a handgun. So there are 0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:45.320 there are things that can should be done. I think 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:46.880 there you will see some of that. The bump stock 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.080 issue is related to that. But the response I often 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:52.240 here in this country is always more guns. More guns 0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:54.919 is the solution that you need more guns. Ultimately, the 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:56.960 teachers now need to have guns that's an argument some 0:20:56.960 --> 0:20:59.600 people pursuing. When is the answer not more guns? You know, 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.400 I didn't give that answer this morning, but I will 0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:04.440 say we need to harden our schools, There's no question 0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:09.840 about it. And again, looking at the tragic situation in Florida, UM, 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:11.960 you know that that school, you know, should have had 0:21:12.680 --> 0:21:15.040 the ability to protect those students better. So that is 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:16.919 part of the answer as well. In the time that 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:19.439 we have left an update from Rob Portman and the 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:23.159 President's initiatives or lack of initiatives to help you with 0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:27.080 the opioid crisis in Ohio, you and the woman from 0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:30.520 New Hampshire have provided national leadership on this. You're not 0:21:30.560 --> 0:21:33.560 getting help from the White House yet, are you. Well. 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:36.000