1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. We 5 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: begin there with the main event of the week for me. 6 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: It's Chairman Powell, who took over, of course from Janet 7 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 1: Yellen this month, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, 8 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: then the Senate Banking Committee two days later in what's 9 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: known as the Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, the first time since 10 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: Powell was sworn in that we as market observers and 11 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,279 Speaker 1: you as market participants, get a chance to pass every 12 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: single word from the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 13 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: Johnny Us to discusses. Steve Ye City Private Bank Global 14 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: Chief strategisticly joined us here in New York City. Good 15 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: morning and happy Monday to you, Steve. Happy Monday. Did 16 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: they exist on a note? Maybe they exist today it 17 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: is let's get let's get up to Spain on what 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: to expect Tuesday through to Thursday. What are we looking 19 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: for from Shaman Pal Steve Well I think it's what 20 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: we can't anticipate that's interesting. You know, we have the 21 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 1: policy report to Congress, we have the new projections, we've 22 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: had the last Fed minutes. If there is any nuance 23 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: as to how the Chairman can talk to us about 24 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: viewing the outlook differently, you know, to a certain extent, 25 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: they feel more confident about the course that they are on. 26 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: But how much more confident does it make them actually 27 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: think about changing the policy view to one that's a 28 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: little bit more robust. How do they want to fight inflation? 29 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: To what extent? Are they really playing the old game, 30 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: which is pushing down inflation at every time we see 31 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: a chance to do it, or are we just satisfied 32 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: to see it rise to the two and a half 33 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: percent range? You know that they say is constitutes at 34 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: least short term price stability. States to what extent should 35 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: they be trying to find inflation at this point? Well, 36 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 1: I think that most prudently, we have to care about 37 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 1: what the next downturn will look like. And it's not 38 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: to say that there's one immediately on the horizon, but 39 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 1: if you are essentially avoiding any financial excesses, and you 40 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: really think about what unwinding financial access is does to 41 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 1: the future economic outlook and the inflation rate, then you 42 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: don't want to have to fight a deep deflation later 43 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: on in an economic downturn. So that's why you know 44 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: this modest, mild policy snugging that we're doing here, which 45 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: is really way below the standards of past cycles. It's 46 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: half a historic tightening cycle. You know, it still matters 47 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: to do this when inflation is low. And again we 48 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: can talk about how the December CPI print was half 49 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 1: a percent. I don't think we're going to see every 50 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: single month is going to be, you know, annualizing at 51 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: four and a half percent. I think one thing that 52 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 1: a lot of paper of trying to get their heads 53 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: around is how different sham and pound might be to 54 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: form a chair yelling how do you expect to spread 55 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: to widen? Is it going to narrow? How do we 56 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: recon style the difference? Because right now I think overwhelmingly 57 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 1: the consensus of the amount of people that I speak 58 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: to is typically this is yelling two point out, that's 59 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: Jerome Powell. It's not the way you see things, or 60 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: do you see things differently well compared to the discussion 61 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: um perhaps John Taylor or Kevin Walsh, you know, some 62 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: of the people who were brought up in the process 63 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: of vetting a new FED chair. Uh. You know, we 64 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: did have policy comments from Jerome Pool in the past. 65 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: You know, we've had him articulate the Fed's view of 66 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: the economy and how monetary policy should unfold in the past, 67 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: and so we wanted to understand, you know, to what 68 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: extent that reflects respect for Yelling's views or is really 69 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: going to break new ground going forward. But I certainly 70 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: feel a lot more comfortable when I did at the 71 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: time of the appointment that we are not having a 72 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: massive regime change in policy making here. The fact is 73 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 1: in is correct me from wrong Stephen John Wood? Um, 74 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: the fact is we don't know j. Powell's monetary beliefs. 75 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: We really haven't heard enough yet, have we. Well, look, 76 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: we do have some specific monetary policy speeches. Maybe this 77 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: is not what he spent his life wanting to do, perhaps, 78 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: but we have seen like you know what that let 79 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: me just jump in. I'm with Tom. This was the 80 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 1: fight the quiet governor on the FED board. Yes, we've 81 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: got a couple of speeches, but his whole modus operande 82 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 1: was just to go out there and not annoy anyone. 83 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: He was a follower of whoever was leading. He was 84 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: not out there as the leader on the FED boar 85 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 1: board making big speeches that would disrupt the flow of 86 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: decision making, like say lele brain it. This guy was 87 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: just the quiet governor of the president then, right, So 88 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: you know we are all of the view, particularly after 89 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: seeing minutes after seeing the policy report to Congress, you 90 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: know that this is a FED that is right now 91 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: steering in the same direction as the yell and Fed. 92 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: And that's what can get interesting about this. If there's 93 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: something that we don't know about the whole policy approach 94 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: here now. Uh, certainly each chairman will have the deal 95 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: with challenges in their own particular way. There might be 96 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: some underlying philosophy, uh that we don't know yet, and 97 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: whether any of that will come out in this testimony 98 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: will be quite interesting. But that's what's what makes this interesting. 99 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: This is a first you know, Humphrey Hawkins round for 100 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: a new FED share and you're gotta should be all 101 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: over it. How do we establish what the power put 102 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: looks like. We've had the Greenspan put and Andy put, 103 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: the yell and put three bond managers speaking to me 104 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: on Friday, trying to work out whether we have a 105 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: power put? Do we have a power put? Absolutely critical 106 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: to sort of understand that in the sense that you know, 107 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: what is their reaction function? How protective of this economic 108 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: expansion do they want to be right now? And look, 109 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: I think if you were taking a look from the outside, 110 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: you would say the US economy has been head being 111 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 1: fully towards its potential. There we're showing signs of compensation 112 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: gains that are accelerating, but from such a low level 113 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: and after such a deep downturn almost a decade ago, 114 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: that we ought to let this run. Some one of 115 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 1: your charms, Steve Whiting, is you actually pay attention to 116 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: what corporations do. I mean, like what they say? What 117 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 1: are they saying right now? Is you look confidence called 118 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 1: the late uh John Farrow, the late Richard Yamaron of 119 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg was expert at this. Just listen to what people 120 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 1: say and do. What are they saying besides giving token 121 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: thousand dollar raises to the troops and blathering about all 122 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 1: the money they're gonna save is a gross stub off 123 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: the text cut act. There's an underlying sense of optimism. 124 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: If you just take a look at the various survey 125 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: measures and you take a look. Okay, there are lots 126 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: of cautious comments, as always, all the qualifiers that are 127 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: needed for legal reasons around these things. But you take 128 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: a look at any of these business confidence measures and 129 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: you don't see something that is out of line. You 130 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: know what you'll hear with earnings reports that they think 131 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: times will be strong for two thousand eighteen and two 132 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: thousand nineteen small businesses, large businesses, and the economy has 133 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: not really stepped up to that level of confidence yet. 134 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: But you know this again, as as you said on 135 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: the television, there's probably someplace for it to meet in 136 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: the middle, because some of these readings on confidence are 137 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 1: way off the charts. Steve Winning, it's going to have 138 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: you with us the City Private Bankalect Chief Strategy. The 139 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: medium term was such an interesting concept, Carston Rescue with 140 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: us with I n G. Right, Now, what's the medium 141 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: term to you? It's like a European phrase. Nobody in 142 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: America is looking at the the medium term. It's the 143 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 1: a C B term, isn't it. It's a mont policy prodstability, 144 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: a medium term. I was just thinking about on China 145 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: in journey. We have Mrs Merkel, she's already heading off 146 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: for the for the fourth term. Already is pretty much Chinese. 147 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: The medium term, John is trying to get the Boston 148 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: Red Socks the fourth of July. It is that, right, 149 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: that's the medium term. We're gonna go and watch a 150 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: game this this summer. I'm looking forward to that. Should 151 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: I get you to the short term? The short term? 152 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: What we're focusing on this week in Europe, the Italian 153 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: election this weekend. Custom Breziski of of iron G used 154 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: to help me work out what was going on in 155 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: Greece on almost a daily basis when I was back 156 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: in London, and now you've got to work out what's 157 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 1: going on in Italy. Now it's an uncertain election in 158 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: the minds of so many people. We had Italian bonds 159 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: are pretty well bid and yields are lower by a 160 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: considerable amount. Today we're coming again by about four or 161 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: five basis points ahead of an at Tangan election that 162 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: maybe brings someone that a number of years ago was 163 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,839 Speaker 1: incredibly anti European, anti euro into the into the mix. Carston, 164 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 1: Should I be worried about this weekend? Because it doesn't 165 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: see many people are I think you shouldn't. There are 166 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: a couple of factors, and the Italian system is so 167 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: complex and complicated. You know that they party reformed their 168 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: electorate system um a strange combination between when when it 169 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: takes at all and proportionate electorate system. But it simply 170 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: means there will be no single party getting the absolute majority. 171 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: So we're gonna we're gonna get some kind of a 172 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: coalition at best. So let's be clear here for investors, 173 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 1: what was a problem to many political analysts is that 174 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: things can't get done in Italy is actually a benefit 175 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: to the investor base because it doesn't matter who gets in, 176 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: they won't get things done exactly. I think that right 177 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 1: now is a benefit. Plus, there is no single party 178 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: actually going for Italy leaving the year zone anymore. That 179 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 1: is the fear that we had last year or a 180 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: couple of years ago, to even this five Star Movement 181 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: party actually is not arguing in favor of Italy leaving 182 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: the year zone anymore. But part of the dynamic here 183 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: of everyone including myself, being calmer about Italy is they're 184 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:00,439 Speaker 1: generating some form of economic growth. Is you look hardston 185 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 1: country to country. Can you state that the United States 186 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 1: of Europe has a better little g that the economic 187 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 1: growth nation the nation is actually stable and stained and buoyant. 188 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 1: It is, although when you look at Italy, Italy is 189 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: still one of the legards and Italy is benefiting from 190 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 1: the Eurozone cycle, but it's still legging behind. And I 191 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:25,559 Speaker 1: think that that is. You know, on the one it's 192 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: positive for Italy right now because also as soon as 193 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,319 Speaker 1: you have a job, you're not voting against the EU anymore. 194 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: So this also means there is less support for for 195 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 1: anti euro parties in Italy, but at the same time, 196 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that Italy is off the hook. Custom 197 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: how fragile is this recovery across the continent? A huge 198 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 1: amount of optimism around it. I'm just wondering how fragile 199 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: actually is um. You know, I agree with you being 200 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 1: a bit pessimistic, but I think it's not so fragile 201 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: because it really it is broadening across sectors. We do 202 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: have the export sector, which which is fine and which 203 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: can even even digest as stronger era. We have investment 204 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: picking up on the back of the ECB. The e 205 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: c B is not going to change its policies anytime soon. 206 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: We have consumption going on, so it's not so fragile. 207 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 1: The perception of the e c B changing its policies 208 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: may well changed quite radically. There's a really interesting piece 209 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: in the Financial Times over the weekend. I'm sure many 210 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: of our listeners read it. It was lunch with Jens 211 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: Vitemin of the Bundesbank, Lunch with the ens vironment. In 212 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: the minds of many people, it's Videman running for president 213 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: of the e c B. Now of YenS Vidman the 214 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,839 Speaker 1: one individual that many people suspect, suspect disagreed with Mario 215 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: Dragi over the whatever it takes speech, the one individual 216 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: on the ECB Government Council that did that. If that 217 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: individual then becomes the president of the e c B, 218 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: what are we meant to think of that? Um? I 219 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 1: think Vidman is extremely good and also playing his role. 220 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: Let's also be honest, he's not as dogmatic as his 221 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: predecessors were, like Mr Weber or Mr Jurgen Stark Um, 222 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: So he's going to play his role. Even if he 223 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: was to become the ECB president, I think he would 224 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: then also immediately shift ats and and will become more 225 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 1: pro European. But let's not forget he would only take 226 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: off at the end of two thousand nineteen. Where they 227 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: go to lunch the McDonald's by liverplaces. Forgot I forgot 228 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: in the name of the restaurant, but it was in Frankfort. 229 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: It was in Frankfurt. You should read the pace. It 230 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: was quite interesting. The shortest lunch I've ever had in 231 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: Frankfort was two and a half hours, really the shortest. 232 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: Why did you go for lunch? I used to go 233 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: there all the time. I usually struggle the plates to 234 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: find a place to eat in Francs. That's true. No, 235 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: that's very true, folks, that John's custom once is so 236 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 1: difficult to find a place to eat in Frankfort because 237 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 1: Germans are not into eating. So this is the this 238 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: is they don't want to go out. This this is 239 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: why we need Italy in the years ago. That would 240 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: be true. I want to look at the polarity here 241 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: and you can do that on the Bloomberg, Folks. The 242 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: unemployment rate of Germany's five point four The unemployment rate 243 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: of Italy is in the vicinity of eleven percent. At 244 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 1: the end of the day. That's the tension. I mean, 245 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: we have the same tension in the States, but it's 246 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 1: just different. Isn't attention will go on? I think that's 247 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: the whole thing. When you look at it again, I 248 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:06,599 Speaker 1: think it's at least not the big risk in the 249 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: short term, not not for markets, but Italy economically, in 250 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: economic policy wise, is an issue because we will get 251 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: this discussion on whether Italy will be allowed to invest 252 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: and to spend more. And when you look at it, 253 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: a hundred per ratio, I think minus or two percent 254 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: deficit ratio. So Italy will again bring this this very 255 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: sensitive issue back on the table in Europe. Can we 256 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: invest more? Can we have higher deficits to increase investment 257 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: and spending? Well? Is it Macron's Europe or or Marco's Europe? 258 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: And who gets on the green line? Um, it will 259 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: be both. The interesting thing is that Mrs Merkel again 260 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: is is renewing herself again? Um? So she she does yesterday. 261 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: Ums she come up with whether take a couple of 262 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: new posts, new young politicians coming up there? Um it 263 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 1: will be a combination, will be in mccron mercal Europe. 264 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: How is Mr Trump perceived now Europe? We've had very 265 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: little of this analysis in the United States because they're 266 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: so focused on domestic Trump and issues. But has there 267 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: been a shift and now the president is perceived across 268 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: your Europe? Honestly, no, I think if you really want 269 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: to score high in media or with clients, you do 270 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: some Trump bashing always always falls well in Europe. I 271 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: think there is there, there are, and that's fascinating now 272 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: now Here in the United States of America, the Trump 273 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: bashing seems to play well with the mainstream media, the 274 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: left wing media outlets. With investors. They don't care where 275 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: you stand politically. Ultimately, they want to make money cast 276 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: And now you use the word investors want to hear that. 277 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: Why do investors want to hear that? Why do they 278 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: want politically charged retric Because I think in in in 279 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: Europe you see that this um divide between the US 280 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: and Europe, as between economic policies between the US and 281 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: in Europe is um um. So many people also investors. 282 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: When you talk to continental European investors right now, they 283 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: feel remind of economics. One of the themes that we 284 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: have here, Carson, before let you go, is the idea 285 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: of huge fiscal policy non austerity in the United States, 286 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: which will lead to a diminished lower net export statistic. 287 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: What did you learn about export import dynamics amid EU austerity? 288 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: Did the trade dynamic actually assist the domestic economy? It 289 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: does um in two ways actually extra euro so it 290 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: really we see that all countries are benefiting from the 291 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: weaker year that we had so far, it leads act 292 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: one of the main beneficiaries. Italy is exporting more in 293 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: absolute terms than friends does um and at the same time, 294 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: at the same time, we also do see that the 295 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: trade within the years on countries is improving. To repeat 296 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: that again, that's so important Italy. What do you mean 297 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: by apps in the units traits volume, volume volume. It's 298 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: exporting law than France. I would even though theever you 299 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: hear is fabulous, I would have never guessed at John Farrell, 300 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: but I didn't have that. I thought, do you know 301 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: that what tipped the needle? There was a Gucci store? 302 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: Is that you? Is that you? I suspect they're not 303 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: for you, but I imagine it might be. It might 304 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: be your going to see me in the fur line 305 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 1: Colin don't even start the twins wants me to try 306 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: out sis. We've got to say thanks to Couston and 307 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: then we can talk about the bill at the end 308 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: of a month. For you, he is the Senator from Cincinnati. 309 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: Rob Portman will always be from his Cincinnati, but now, 310 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: of course his representation of all of his state of 311 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: Ohio without question of vice presidential candidate and consideration. But 312 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: he said, I need to stay in a Republican Senate. 313 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: The Senator joins us here in our New York studios. 314 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: You're in Cincinnati, Senator Portman, March second, five miles south 315 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: of Michigan and Holland, Ohio. There will be a meeting 316 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: of the friends of the n r A. Right now 317 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: you're in the crosshairs of the n r A. You've 318 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: been a big uh. They've given you a lot of 319 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: money within the close contest of Ohio. You, Senator Governor 320 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: Scott and Florida, everyone has to adjust. How will Rob 321 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: Portman adjust to what we've seen in Florida. Well, we 322 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: have I need to look at this in a very broadway. 323 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: Let's let's face it. Um in Florida. To talk about 324 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: the tragedy there uh so many missed signals unbelievable this 325 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: morning hearing about more so was avoidable in the sense 326 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: Tom that had law enforcement have been doing their job. 327 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: You know, this particular young man would not have been 328 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: in that position even the FBI was involved. So it 329 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: wasn't it wasn't just local law enforcement. But the broader 330 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: issues include mental health and we have people falling between 331 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: the tracks, as you know, I do a lot of 332 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: work in that area, and opioids, which is related with 333 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 1: regard to background checks. We need to tighten them up. 334 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: I am. I am actually sponsoring legislation to do that. 335 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: I think Congress is likely to move towards something that 336 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: says people who shouldn't get a gun need to be 337 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: stopped through that process. And it's not happening now, partly 338 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 1: because the information is not coming in. Senator, you represent 339 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 1: the cultural divide of this debate, the toughest parts of Cleveland, 340 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 1: the tough parts of Cincinnati, and yet the fabric of 341 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: hunting America and Ohio once again provides that tapestry of America. 342 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: How does this nation come to grips with the toughest 343 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: parts of Cleveland and the fields of western Ohio. Yeah, well, 344 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: you know, in in Ohio there are a lot of 345 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: people feel very strong about the Second Amendment. I believe 346 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: it's it's a right that we can preserve and at 347 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: the same time find that balance with regard to background checks, 348 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: let we go things like bump stocks, with regard to 349 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: things where to look at the age. So I think 350 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: there are things that that can and should be done. 351 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: I will say that with regard to downtown Cleveland, because 352 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 1: you mentioned that, downtown Cincinnati and downtown Columbus and so on, 353 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: there is a lot of gun violence. It doesn't get 354 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: nearly the exposure that these horrific school shootings get, but 355 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: it's happening every day, and it tends to be as 356 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: you know of. It probably is with a handgun, and 357 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: it tends to be with drugs and crime related to gangs. 358 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's primarily what I hear from law enforcement, 359 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: and that's an issue that you know. Again, I spent 360 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: a lot of time on this issue in terms of 361 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 1: the drug side of it, which is driving a lot 362 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 1: of this. We have to get to the bottom of 363 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 1: all these things because unless you do that, you will 364 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: continue to see this this violence perpetrated, and it's it 365 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: is the biggest issue in terms of gun violence is 366 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,199 Speaker 1: the gangs and usually drug related and turf battles and 367 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: so on. So when we focus on things like stopping 368 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: this drug pandemic that has now hit my state, it 369 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 1: does have an effect as well. Senator Holp, the guest 370 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: of this country, understand how preserving the Second Amendment is 371 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: compatible with allowing the sale of our a R fifteens 372 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: to the general public. I'm sorry t help me understand, 373 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: as a guest of this country, how preserving that amendment 374 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: is compatible with allowing the sales of a R fifteens 375 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 1: to member of the general public. Well, I think I 376 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: think there are people who own those weapons would say 377 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: it's it is compatible. But what I'm saying is there's 378 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: a balance here, and so I all I can say is, um, 379 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: you know, I think Congress ought to look at that issue. 380 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: We had to look at the issue of of age, 381 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: because at eighteen you can purchase a rifle, whereas it 382 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: twenty one you can purchase a handgun. So there are 383 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: there are things that can should be done. I think 384 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 1: there you will see some of that. The bump stock 385 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: issue is related to that. But the response I often 386 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 1: here in this country is always more guns. More guns 387 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 1: is the solution that you need more guns. Ultimately, the 388 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 1: teachers now need to have guns that's an argument some 389 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: people pursuing. When is the answer not more guns? You know, 390 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 1: I didn't give that answer this morning, but I will 391 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: say we need to harden our schools, There's no question 392 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: about it. And again, looking at the tragic situation in Florida, UM, 393 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: you know that that school, you know, should have had 394 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: the ability to protect those students better. So that is 395 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,919 Speaker 1: part of the answer as well. In the time that 396 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 1: we have left an update from Rob Portman and the 397 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: President's initiatives or lack of initiatives to help you with 398 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: the opioid crisis in Ohio, you and the woman from 399 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: New Hampshire have provided national leadership on this. You're not 400 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: getting help from the White House yet, are you. Well. 401 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 1: We we have the presidents on legislation recently, for instance, 402 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: to UM provide funding for additional UH monitors and screeners 403 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: for fentin al coming into this country, and he has 404 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: supported UM additional funding for prevention education as well as 405 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: treatment and recovery in our budget bill that just passed. 406 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: As you know, Tom, we got unprecedented amounts of funding 407 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: for that purpose, three billion dollars this year and three 408 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 1: billion next year. We are now working on additional legislator 409 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: and to the Conference Addiction Recovery Act that I've co 410 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: authored to ensure that funding is properly spent. In other words, 411 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 1: we wanted to go to evidence space programs. I left 412 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,360 Speaker 1: one a couple of days ago in Ohio. That's very 413 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: promising of some federal money. Uh, you know that that 414 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 1: I support. It went into this project. It then helped 415 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: to leverage a lot of private sector funding. And it 416 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: is an emergency room where people that overdose are going 417 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: to come to and there's the treatment center right there. 418 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: The people would come to this emergence room in the 419 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 1: last month and three people have gone into treatment. That's 420 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: a key because that gap between getting someone into an 421 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 1: emergency room saving their lives to this miracle drug, an 422 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: arcan that reduces the reverses the effects of overdoses. Then 423 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 1: people go back home, they don't get the help they need. 424 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: So this is one of the things we should do. 425 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: Center Apartment, thank you for the visit. We look forward 426 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: to speaking again in our Washington studios. Rob Apartment from Ohio. 427 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,199 Speaker 1: It is a book that would be wildly anticipated at 428 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,879 Speaker 1: any moment. Ben Steele, of course smart writing for the 429 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: consul in Foreign Relations, The Martial Plan dawn of the 430 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 1: Cold War, but it has become particularly timely. Is all 431 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 1: of each and every political persuasion. Look at the process 432 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 1: of diplomacy, the process of the projection of the United 433 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: States of America in two thousand eighteen. We revisit the 434 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: starvation of Europe in nine. If you need a brief 435 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: on this, all you need to know is Audrey Hepburn 436 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 1: barely made it out of the Netherlands in this starvation. 437 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: Ben Steel congratulation on a huge effect of the Martial Plan. 438 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 1: Your book tell us about how bad it was in 439 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 1: Europe when George Marshall and President Truman stepped in the 440 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: New York Times, Tom referred to Europe as unquote, the 441 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 1: dark Continent. In the early years after the war, things 442 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: were truly savage. It wasn't just the physical destruction of 443 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: the war. All the complex economic relations that we take 444 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: for granted today between country and city, between businesses and consumers, 445 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: between monetary authorities and the general public. Everything had broken down, 446 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 1: and um, you know, there was a real desire among 447 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 1: the populists for for big change, big changes in economic policy. 448 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: We saw that in Britain with nationalization and the Communist parties, 449 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: particularly in Italy and Flance, were getting very powerful. My 450 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,880 Speaker 1: window of George Marshall, who full disclosure, folks were severed 451 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 1: in the keen household of General Marshall is from Edward 452 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: Larabe and his magnificent book of thirty years ago on 453 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: the various and sundry General's helping FDR. There's a scene 454 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 1: in the Larabie book where Marshall decides the best way 455 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 1: to help FDR is to be visible, but really out 456 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: of the way until called upon. How did he go 457 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: from that general in the war to a Secretary of 458 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 1: State saying, let's go. This is This is martial at 459 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 1: its at his best, tom Um. In the year before 460 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: he became Secretary of State in nineteen forty six, he 461 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: had planned to go into retirement and perhaps write his memoirs. 462 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: He had been offered up to half a million dollars 463 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: to to write his memoirs. You know that's a fortune 464 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: in today's money, but he turned it down. With President 465 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: Truman came to him and said, I want you to 466 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: go to China uh and tried to find a way 467 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: to make peace between the nationalists and the communists. That 468 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 1: mission was a failure, Tom but he learned a lot 469 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 1: from it, and when he became Secretary of State in 470 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 1: nineteen forty seven, and when he saw that there was 471 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:53,199 Speaker 1: no prospect for getting a cooperative agreement going forward on 472 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,679 Speaker 1: Germany with the Soviets, he came home from Moscow in 473 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: April of nineteen forty seven and said, the pay is sinking. 474 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: While the doctors deliberate, we can no longer wait for 475 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: the Soviets to come around. We have to fix this 476 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: problem ourselves. Within the book is a different media, and 477 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 1: without question, the center tendency of that study is Walter Lippmann. 478 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: I'm going to suggest, Ben Steele, that a lot of 479 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,439 Speaker 1: our listening audience today doesn't know who Walter Lippmann is. 480 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,120 Speaker 1: Who is he? And is there a proxy in two 481 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen America? You know there probably isn't today. 482 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: Tom and Walter Lippman was an extremely influential journalist in 483 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 1: the in the nineteen forties of the administration took him 484 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: extremely seriously. George Kennon, who was the father of the 485 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 1: new early Cold War policy of containment containing the Soviet Union, 486 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 1: had long running disputes with with Lippmann. Um he was 487 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,959 Speaker 1: extremely influential and There's no doubt that he did push 488 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:06,640 Speaker 1: UH policy in the Truman administration in various directions throughout 489 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: those early Cold War years, well within that and I 490 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 1: guess this jumps of forward, folks, Ben Steel and with 491 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: your expertise on modern diplomacy, Could the Martial Plan occur 492 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 1: in today's media, Maelstrom, You know, I don't think so, 493 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 1: tom Um. You know, one of the most remarkable legacies 494 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,199 Speaker 1: of the Martial Plan is the endless desire to repeat it. 495 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,199 Speaker 1: In the past five years alone, we've had proposals for 496 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 1: martial plans in Ukraine, in Greece and Southern Europe and 497 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 1: North Africa and Ghazin most recently UH in Syria, but 498 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,439 Speaker 1: nothing like it has ever taken hold. I should emphasize 499 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 1: that we spent over two billion dollars tom on reconstruction 500 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 1: aid in the Rock and Afghanistan, and that's about more 501 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 1: than we spent in the totality of martial aid in 502 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: current dollars, and we have so little to show for it. 503 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: And that's really because one of the great successes of 504 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 1: the Martial One was also providing physical security for Europe 505 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 1: in the form of NATO, which we helped create. One 506 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: of the big things we do here is try to 507 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 1: throw books at younger people and say shut up and 508 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 1: read it. And the Martial Plan Dawn of the Cold 509 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: War is official, certified headbanger here weighing. It's some foreign 510 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 1: in pages and it's a really an easy read of 511 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: the time. How would you frame this to an intern 512 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:31,120 Speaker 1: at the Council on Foreign Relations? They've got seventy books. Uh, 513 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,360 Speaker 1: you know, Foreign Affairs Magazine is going to come out 514 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,439 Speaker 1: with another fifteen books this next issue that they have 515 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: to read. How do you say to a young kids, 516 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: shut up and read the Marshall Plan. What's the lesson 517 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 1: year for young kids and international relations? I think young 518 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: people today, Tom, are extremely interested in current affairs. They're 519 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 1: certainly interested in politics in the United States now, which is, 520 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: you know, a very unusual and an historical perspective. Um. 521 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: And one of the things that comes across very clear 522 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 1: early in this story, Tom, is that the early Cold 523 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: War conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union 524 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: was fun fundamentally about geography and not about ideology. It 525 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: wasn't about Marxism versus capitalism. Stalin is trying to push 526 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: territorial claims in the Iran and Turkey in N's trying 527 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 1: to push into Western Germany and cement his buffer zone 528 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,959 Speaker 1: in eastern Europe. And really, Tom, that's the root of 529 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 1: the conflict between the United States and Russia today in Europe. 530 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: Russia is extremely concerned about the eastward expansion of NATO 531 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: and the European Union, and we have grossly underestimated Russia's reaction. Well, 532 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 1: this has been written up in your Foreign Affairs magazine. JEMR. 533 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: Scheimer of the University of Chicago has made very clear 534 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: that we underestimate this Eastern thrust. Was the martial plan 535 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: with the planes historically flying into Berlin and all that 536 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 1: Berlin Blockaden, that was that considered an Eastern th used 537 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: by Stalin. Well, it's important to recognize, Tom, that Stalin 538 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: in fact implemented the Berlin blockade to strangle Germany in 539 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 1: fundamentally as a way to convince the Americans not to 540 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,680 Speaker 1: leave Berlin, although he very much would have liked that, 541 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 1: but to stop trying to create a Western German state. 542 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 1: He was extremely concerned about the threat of a democratic, 543 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 1: capitalist Western Germany effectively under American control. He considered that 544 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 1: a security threat to his new offer zone in Eastern 545 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: Europe and to bring Marshall Plan forward. And you touch 546 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 1: on this in your final chapter, the echoes of the 547 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: Marshall Plan on is our multilateralism in our collegiality, is 548 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: it just exhausted because on a calculus basis, we got 549 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 1: to the best marginal effect of everyone being together. Did 550 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: we just finally wear out that forty year trend that 551 00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: we had of GAT and the rest of it? I 552 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 1: think you may have hit the crux of the problem, uh, 553 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 1: tom In In the early post war years from ninety 554 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: the United States created all of the major institutions of 555 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 1: what we now call the post war liberal order, the 556 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 1: United Nations, the i m F, the World Bank, NATO, 557 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: the predecessor organizations to the European Union, and the World 558 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 1: Trade Organization. Uh. These things were all created in this 559 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: short span of four years after the Second World War, 560 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 1: and I think we've taken them to for grant it 561 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 1: perhaps too long. And now, of course we've got a 562 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: transactional president who likes to do deals and thinks that 563 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: he can do better deals, he can do better for 564 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: the United States than the w t O and and NATO, 565 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 1: and wants to renegotiate all these things, and I think 566 00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 1: what he's perhaps losing is the enormous influence we've had 567 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: in the world, from our song power, from our ability 568 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: to project values that we're seeing as being universally attractive. 569 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 1: Ben Steel, thank you so much the Marshall Plan. Dawn 570 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 1: of the Cold Word. Can't say enough about it, and 571 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 1: the photos are extraordinary, and it is hugely appropriate that 572 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: the final photo of the book is of at an 573 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,280 Speaker 1: hour of Germany. Ben Steel, with the constant fortulations the 574 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:33,880 Speaker 1: must read The Marshall Plan. Thanks for listening to the 575 00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 576 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 577 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 578 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.