1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: The stating sound on with Kevin, the insiders, the influencers, 2 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: the insiders. There is no secret that I care a 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: lot about the consumers. There are real questions about did 4 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: tech we still have more leverage to me as with 5 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: the tariffs. I think we could do with a little 6 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: less drama from the White is sound on with Kevin's 7 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: he related on Bloomberg one and one oh five point 8 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: seven a m h D two Baltimore Dealer, No Neil China. Addition, 9 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: President Trump saying that China and the US are inching 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: closer to some type of deal, but don't call it 11 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 1: a memorandum of understanding, call it a trade deal that 12 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: according to President Trump, We're going to dive into the 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: specifics of what went down this afternoon at the White House. 14 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: There was a lot how was there all day? And 15 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: I can tell you Chinese Vice Premier Leo Hua is 16 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: extending his stay here in the US by two days. 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: This as President Trump gears up to head to Vietnam 18 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: to meet with North Korea dictator Kim Jong un for 19 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: de nuclearization peace talks. We've got an all star international 20 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: lineup today. Norm Rule is, of course, the former CIA 21 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: intelligence officer managing numerous programs in the Middle East, especially 22 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: with Iran UH and Andrew Bishop, partner and global head 23 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 1: of Policy Research at Signal Global Advisors, My guest with 24 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: me in studio for the hour. Don't worry, we won't 25 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: be talking about Bob Kraft. He of course was charged 26 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 1: in a Florida prostitutionous prostitution staying rough day for Bob Craft. 27 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: But first, let's get caught up on all of the 28 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: latest headlines with China from Nancy Lions. Nancy, Well, it 29 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: does look like there is some forward movement on trade. 30 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: The Chinese delegation, as you mentioned, is extending its stay 31 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: in Washington a couple of days. Bloomberg serv Chapman has 32 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: been following developments from the White House. President Trump's folk 33 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: of progress in the talks as he met with Chinese 34 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: price Premier Leoha in the Oval Office. Speaking for the 35 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: United States, I would say it's probably more likely than 36 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: a deal does happen. So the fact that they're willing 37 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: to stay for quite a bit longer period, doubling up 38 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: the time that means something. I think there's a good 39 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 1: chance that it happens. It's probably the biggest deal ever 40 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: made the President said he's likely to meet next month 41 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: with China's Shiji and ping with his Florida a state 42 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: Mara Lago. It's the venue at the White House or 43 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: Chapman Boomberg Radio. A report from Special Counsel Robert Mueller 44 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: about the Russia investigation is now not expected to be 45 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: delivered to the Justice Department next week. That's according to 46 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: a senior Justice Department officials who spoke anonymously with the 47 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: Associated Press. When the report is released, six House Democratic 48 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: Committee heads are calling on Attorney General William Barr to 49 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: make the full report public, including any evidence of misconduct 50 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 1: by President Trump. In Chicago, R and B star R. 51 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: Kelly has been indicted on ten charges of aggravated criminal 52 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: sexual abuse involving four underage girls. Cook County State's Attorney 53 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: Kimberly Fox. Aggravated criminal sexual abuse is a class to 54 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 1: felony with the sentencing range of three to seven years 55 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: for account. It is also probation of ball. We anticipate 56 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: that Mr Kelly will appear in bond court tomorrow afternoon. 57 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,959 Speaker 1: And New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft has been charged 58 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: with misdemeanor solicitation of a prostitute. Prosecutors in Florida say 59 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: he was caught in a sex trafficking crackdown, as was 60 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: captured on video during two separate visits to a massage parlor. 61 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: Republicans in the Virginia House plan to hold a hearing 62 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: to allow two women to testify about their sexual assault 63 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: allegations against Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax. The idea is not 64 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: sitting well with House Democrats like Delicate La chaiche Aird, 65 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: who says the General Assembly is not the proper place 66 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: for such a hearing. Due process is absolutely needed and 67 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: should be afforded to all. The justice and the due 68 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: process that we seek should be by a law and 69 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: enforcement entity, not by individuals who will be on the 70 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: ballot in November. Fairfax has adamantly denied the allegations against him, 71 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: his spokesman says in a statement this afternoon, Republicans are 72 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: using the hearing to draw attention away from their defeat 73 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: of the Equal Rights Amendment. Time now for the Beltway 74 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: business report. Here is Bluebirds Larry Koski, Well Nancy. It 75 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: was a positive day on Wall Street amid signs that 76 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 1: negotiators are making headway and trade talks between the U. S. 77 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: And China that Jones industrial average gained one one, the 78 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 1: SMP five hundred added seventeen, and as that composite rose 79 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: sixty seven. The U. S. And China will extend their 80 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,679 Speaker 1: current round of trade talks into the weekend. Negotiation yielded 81 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,840 Speaker 1: progress but fell short of a breakthrough. The talks ward 82 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: to have ended today. In its semi annual monetary policy 83 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 1: report to Congress, the Federal Reserve says it will remain 84 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: patient with interest rates in light of a slowing global 85 00:04:55,960 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: economy and financial market volatility. Chairman Jerome Powell will tell 86 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: STI five before Congress next week. GM is extending the 87 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: life of its only Detroit factory until early next year. 88 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: The assembly line was to have stopped on June one. 89 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: GM now says production of the Chevrolet Impalla and Cadillac 90 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: CT six will continue into January. The plant built its 91 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: last Chevrolet Vault this week. The Bloomberg nine Washington d C. 92 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: Area Stock Index game one point one percent Europe to date. 93 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: On business from the Beltway to Baltimore. I'm Larry Kovsky. 94 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg and one oh five point seven fm 95 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 1: HD two. Thanks Larry. Global News twenty four hours a 96 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 1: day on air and at TikTok on Twitter, powered by 97 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: more than journalists and analysts in more than twenty countries. 98 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: I'm Nancy Lions, Happy Marguerite today for Kevin. Happy Friday, 99 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: my friend. We made it. We made it through the week, 100 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: and what a week it was. The news never stops, 101 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: particularly on a day when Chinese Vice Premier the Way 102 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: Hua was at the White House today negotiating with US 103 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: Trade Representative Bob Leightheiser as well as Treasury Secretary Steph A. Manution. 104 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: Then all of this back and forth meetings all all 105 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: week culminated in President Trump meeting one on one with 106 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: his then later on with his top administration officials, including 107 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: Secretary Manution inside of the Oval Office with Vice Premier 108 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: Loui Hua, who said he's gonna stay in town for 109 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: two more days. As the traders, as President Trump calls them, 110 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: Manuan and Lightheiser continue to hammer out the details on 111 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 1: some type of an agreement. We still don't know when 112 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,840 Speaker 1: the finalized version of a trade deal or a memorandum 113 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: of understanding an m o U to get Wonky is 114 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: going to be finalized. But it was a very interesting. 115 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: Is an understatement and we're going to dive into all 116 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: of it with Andrew Bishop, partner and global head of 117 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: policy research at Signal Global Advisors, and orm Rule, who 118 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: is a former CIA intelligence officer, managering managing numerous Middle 119 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: East and Iran projects. Uh and so, Andrew, I was 120 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: really struck by sort of the big takeaways in terms 121 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: of what we got today. The White House and President 122 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: Trump said that they were able to reach an understanding 123 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: with China on the issue of agriculture, so big news 124 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 1: if you're a farmer. They also said on Secretary Manutions 125 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: said this inside of the Oval, that they were able 126 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 1: to reach an understanding on currency. We don't know what 127 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: the details are, we don't know how they got there. 128 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: There's no communicate that was released, there's no specific line 129 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: by line agreement in terms of what was decided. But 130 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: on agriculture and on currency, it looks like they've finished 131 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: their deal. There was also a sound bite from President 132 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 1: Trump on the issue of Huawei and it pertaining to 133 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: five G technology, and the President says that he actually 134 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: might use exact aecutive order to restrict the sale of 135 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: Huawei technology h and five G technology here in the 136 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: United States. All of This is what everybody wants to know, 137 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: is that one week from today, March one, that deadline 138 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: when the tariffs could increase up to on like two 139 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion dollars worth of Chinese imports coming 140 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: into the US. The President has said that he's open 141 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: to delaying that tariff increase, exactly what the business community wants. 142 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: They don't want to see those tariffs grow up. But 143 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: we still don't know what he's gonna do one week 144 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: from today on tariffs. Though the markets are reading this 145 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: is slightly optimistic, they didn't really move too much on 146 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: this news. But but you know your overall take on 147 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: the developments of this past afternoon, Yeah, thanks, Kevin. Um. 148 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: I would actually say that the three areas that they 149 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: seem to have reached an agreement on, as you mentioned, 150 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: sort of agriculture, currency and to a STRENGTHEND. The Huawei 151 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 1: issue didn't surprise me that much. On agriculture, it's not 152 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: entirely surprising in the sense that the Chinese have in 153 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 1: the past already expressed a willingness to increase their imports 154 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: of US goods, right, so in that sense that those 155 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: was not the hardest one to address. On on currency. 156 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 1: It is somewhat surprising that the Chinese would agree to 157 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: sort of have the U s impose of some sort 158 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: of regulation of the currency band. But keep in mind 159 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: that of late China has been more worried about its 160 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: currency depreciating than appreciating. Right, So in that sense, the 161 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: Chinese or the US is really doing the Chinese a favor. 162 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: So that's really where I get confused here, is because 163 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: on one hand, President Trump says, all right, we're gonna 164 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: call you a currency manipulator, and then he switches course 165 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: and says, what we want to We don't want to 166 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: see you devalue your currency to aggressively. And as you 167 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: rightfully point out, there's the whole issue that the Chinese 168 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: are worried about with regard to their to their currency 169 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: um as trending. But what exactly what mechanism are you 170 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 1: reading like re read between the lines force, because we 171 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: didn't really get I was at the White House all day. 172 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: We didn't get like a readoubt, so to speak of 173 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: of exactly what they're agreeing to. So I think some 174 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: of the confusion comes from the fact that in the past, 175 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: um you know, save five to three years ago, China 176 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: was was sort of benefiting and sometimes actually trying to 177 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: bring its currency down to to you know, increase it's 178 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: its leverage and global markets in terms of exports. That's 179 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: changed over the past couple of years where its currency 180 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: has really been depreciating quite rapidly in a natural way, 181 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: right because of capital outflows and fears about the robustness 182 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: of the domestic economy, and that's actually led Beijing to 183 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: try to support and have a floor under the currency. 184 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: So what the US is now asking China to do 185 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: is not so much to not devalue its currency, which 186 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: it's not doing, but rather to intervene to make sure 187 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: that it's stabilized. Alright, So on a scale of like 188 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: one to ten, one being Bob Craft, tend being Belvita, 189 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 1: how positive or negative or negative or positive were it 190 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: was today's meeting with President Trump and uh, and so 191 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: I think the meeting itself was very good, and there's 192 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: absolutely no denying that Trump is clearly sort of signaling 193 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: that we're getting much closer to a deal. Um at 194 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: this stage, it would be you know, uh, it's hard 195 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: for me to to really maintain the view that there 196 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 1: will absolutely not be a deal next week. But I 197 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: have to admit um that I'm quite surprised, and I 198 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 1: remain more barished and consensus. I think the market is 199 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: a little bit over optimistic for two main reasons. The 200 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 1: first is that the two parties are still very far 201 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: apart on some of the core issues. I'm thinking in 202 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 1: particular of subsidies and the Chinese economy quote unquote forced 203 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 1: IP transfers through joint ventures i P transfers through joint ventures. 204 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: We're going to dive into that coming up, because I 205 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: want to come back to that point, and I also 206 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: want to get into the whole issue of of enforcement mechanisms. 207 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: How are they going to enforce any of this. I mean, 208 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: like it's one thing to say, Okay, they're gonna buy 209 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: more soybeans. We're not going to do this. They're gonna, 210 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: you know, storre Gham ships up and back on the 211 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: Pacific Ocean, But like, how are you gonna really enforce it, 212 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: particularly when you get into some of these on on 213 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 1: I P. I do want to play a bite from 214 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: President Trump inside of the Oval earlier today, and he 215 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: says that there's a good chance he's optimistic. President Trump 216 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: optimistic about a trade deal here's President Trump tackle is um. 217 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: I think the relationship has been very good. That's what 218 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: I will say more than anything else. As to whether 219 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 1: we make a deal or not, who knows, but I 220 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: think we have a good chance. But I think the 221 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: relationship is outstanding. I think the relationship that we have 222 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: now with Jina is better than it's ever been. And 223 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 1: that's being you know, making a big statement. And President 224 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,719 Speaker 1: Trump says that he might meet with President shi Jing 225 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: Ping of China, maybe down to mar Lago. So when 226 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: I get back from Vietnam next week, maybe I'll be 227 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: headed somewhere. Maybe I'm headed down to Florida to report 228 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: on on President Trump and President she coming up. We're 229 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: sticking with trade deals, in particular the national security element 230 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: pertaining to US China trade relations normal rule. A former 231 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: CIA intelligence officer weighs in on that, plus on the 232 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: looming Trump summit with North Korea leader Kim Joan un 233 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: in Hanoi's Dennis Robbi gonna be there, remember, folks. You 234 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: can download the sound on podcast on Apple iTunes, at 235 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. 236 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: You can also check us out on Radio dot com 237 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: and I Heart Radio. You can get uh sound on 238 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: as well as all of my colleagues here at Bloomberg 239 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: Radio as well. I'm Kevin SURRELLI you're listening to Bloomberg. 240 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: This is sound On with Kevin's he really on Bloomberg 241 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: and m h D two Baltimore, Trade talks, nuke talks, 242 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: and don't forget about the national emergency. We're gonna get 243 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 1: into all of these developments today. We were talking in 244 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: the first block about the US China trade negotiations that 245 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: were happening at the White House President Trump. It was 246 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 1: quite fascinating to watch in real time as he allowed 247 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 1: cameras into the Oval office and at one point was 248 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: at odds in front of not just the media, but 249 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: Vice Premier the Way Hua of China with his own 250 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: trade ambassador, Bob Ledheiser. Because there's this really wonky term 251 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: here inside of the Beltway known as a memorandum of 252 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: understanding and m o U. And the reason that Lightheiser 253 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: has been saying he wants to to use an m 254 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: OU a memorandum of understanding as opposed to using the 255 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: term trade deal, is because if you use the word 256 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 1: trade agreement, you have to get congressional approval, and President 257 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: Trump literally openly chidd Bob Ldheiser and says he wants 258 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 1: to use the words trade agreement, and Bob Ledheiser says, no, 259 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: like m o U. And this whole interesting back and 260 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: forth really a fascinating, albeit somewhat rare glimpse into how 261 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: President Trump interacts with senior administration officials behind closed doors 262 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: and even in front of the media. My guess with 263 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: me for the hour Andrew Bishop, partner in Global head 264 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: of Policy Research at Signum Global Advisors, and Norm Rule, 265 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: a former CIA intelligence officer officer who has managed numerous 266 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 1: programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. And Norm 267 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: we were talking in the break about the national security 268 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:16,479 Speaker 1: implications of the U. S. China trade talks, and in particular, 269 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: when you get into your technology transfers, for example, intellectual property, 270 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: it's not just impacting impacting businesses bottom lines, but it 271 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: also has national security impacts. And I want to play 272 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: for you what President Trump had to say about Huawei, 273 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: in particular, the Chinese telecommunications giant. Take a lissum. Well, 274 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: we're not doing anything right now. We may or may 275 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: not put that in the trade agreement. We may be 276 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: discussing it, but we'd only do that in conjunction with 277 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: the Attorney General of the United States because that is 278 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: a matter that is outside of what we're doing. So 279 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: we do that with the Attorney General if we do anything, 280 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: and I guess there's a question as to whether or 281 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: not that's being included in the agreement. So there's President 282 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: Trump saying that he's going to have a various uh 283 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: different options available to him as it pertains to Huawei. 284 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: It might be in the trade, might not be how 285 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: important from a national security perspective, or what should the 286 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: U s objectives be from a national security perspective as 287 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 1: they negotiate with China. The number one priority for the 288 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: United States has got to be that the Chinese are 289 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: not able to steal our most important military and uh 290 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 1: uh computer tech related technology, which they've been doing extensively 291 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 1: over the past several years. Where this becomes a bigger 292 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: problem is that as Huawei is employed with its five 293 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: G technology efforts in Europe and the Middle East, that 294 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: the Chinese condescence gain access to American technology, to include 295 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 1: military technology, simply through those hookups. So you now see 296 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: a tremendous or you don't see. But there's a tremendous 297 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: behind the scenes effort going on between the United States 298 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 1: and its allies and partners where we're trying to discourage 299 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: them from engaging the Chinese on this issue. Here's the problem. 300 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: Chinese technology is considered cheap, it comes with few strings, 301 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,399 Speaker 1: and it's delivered relatively quickly. American technology is considered expensive, 302 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: often with congressional strings, and and frankly, can take a 303 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: while to be put in place. This is a big 304 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: problem places such as Europe or the Middle East. Normal 305 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 1: Rule is a former CIA intelligence officer who has managed 306 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 1: virtually every Middle East operation over there. Why did you 307 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: get out of the CIA? October? Well? Recent? How is 308 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 1: life outside of the CIA? I missed the tribe? Really, 309 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: you missed the tribe. And Andrew Bishop is a partner 310 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: in Global head of Policy Research at Signal Global Advisors. 311 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: So you hear from Norm about the national security impacts 312 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: and in Huawei, as you know, is really a sticking point. 313 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: Do you think that the domestic landscape though here in 314 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: the US, illustrates that there is really nonpartisan consensus. I 315 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: mean you have people like Senators Rubio and Mark Warner 316 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: for example, of Republican and Democrat respectively, who have been 317 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 1: I would say somewhat on this same page, i'd throw 318 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 1: Chris Coons into that mix of Delaware, UH and and 319 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: some others. Yeah, I think there's definitely a consensus that 320 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: something needs to be done about China's sort of economic 321 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: and political might growing might. Now, the difference I think 322 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: between the various parties is how you do that, how 323 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: you go about doing that, And I think there's a 324 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: there's a huge difference between what some are suggesting in 325 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: terms of making sure that we're safe and not using 326 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: Huawei technology and sensitive areas versus implementing the kinds of 327 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 1: tariffs and escalation that the President has done. And it's 328 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: not just China, I mean I I mean, it's not 329 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: just the US. And as Norm pointed out, with regards 330 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: to Europe or even the Middle East, we've seen China 331 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:41,120 Speaker 1: have a footprint in Venezuela. Correct. And and actually going 332 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 1: back to Huawei and Europe, I think Norm makes a 333 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: very good point that they've many European countries have also 334 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: been concerned about Huawei. The one thing I would say 335 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: is that they've primarily been concerned about the issue because 336 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: of their own vulnerabilities and their own fears about being 337 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: hacked UH, and not only as has been portrayed here 338 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: in the US through American pressure to drop that technology. 339 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 1: Those are great points, and in fact, just staying on 340 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: Europe for a moment, the British have recently come up 341 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 1: with an unusual position where they say they may not 342 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: be quite as concerned as the United States on the 343 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: Huawei issue because they feel it's possible to disaggregate the 344 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,880 Speaker 1: various technologies the way to protect our most sensitive systems. 345 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: I think you see unsaid by the U S national 346 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: security community, but certainly echoed by the congressional UH representatives 347 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 1: who have been briefed by these UH by these individuals, 348 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: that that may not be possible or easily done, and 349 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 1: at the risk to sensitive military technology and UH and 350 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence technology is extreme. That that's a great point, 351 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 1: and I think this goes back to the you know, 352 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 1: the earlier discussion we're having about what you're trying to achieve, 353 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: which is essentially we all agree US and the Europeans 354 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 1: that we should be protecting ourselves against you know, sort 355 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: of Chinese technological interference, but how you do that is different. 356 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 1: Andrew Bishop partner Global head of Policy Research. That's SIGNALM 357 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: Global Advisors, started by Charles Meyer, who used to be 358 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: at every word, right, and you used to be at 359 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: your You've got your Asia Group ties and then before 360 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: that the World Economic Forum, Right. I feel like I 361 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: feel like yeah you and uh yeah and Bremer Ian 362 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 1: Bremer some great, great years at Eurasia Group. Actually only 363 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: recently left and I miss it already. Wow, Okay, And 364 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: of course normal former CIA intelligence officer managing numerous programs 365 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: relating to the Middle East. All right, let's let's change 366 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: it up a little bit because we're talking trade policy. 367 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 1: But now let's head over to the other big development. 368 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: I'm heading there on Sunday, actually, to Vietnam. Uh. It's 369 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,399 Speaker 1: gonna take me like a day and a half to 370 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 1: get there, me on a plane for for that long. Uh. 371 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: And President Trump is going to be negotiating with North 372 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: Korea dictator Kim Jong un. What norm should what should 373 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: we be looking for as a win and even a 374 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: micro win for the US coming out of one week 375 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,360 Speaker 1: from today with Trump and Kim Jong It's a great question. 376 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 1: So I think, for to begin with, we want to 377 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 1: make sure that we see more of the same, No 378 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 1: more missile tests from North Korea, no more missiles flying 379 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: over Japan, no more atmosphere explosions of nuclear weapons or 380 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: expansions of their nuclear facilities UH, and a sessation of 381 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: threats and hostile rhetoric. I think that's going to be 382 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: fairly are relatively easy. If there's anything easy in the 383 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: North Korean negotiation world, and that's a world that where 384 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: it isn't often used in those negotiations. But beyond that, 385 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: there's some usual unusual things that come about. For example, 386 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 1: what if we agree to send diplomatic representatives to each country, 387 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: so we have a diplomat on the ground. You can 388 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: help with consular issues in case we have Americans who arrested, 389 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: which happens with some freeking North Korea. In North Korea, 390 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: I've opened an embasy, and not necessarily, you could have 391 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: an individual in an intersection of another another embassy. That's 392 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: not a bad thing. We've had that in Russia and 393 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: Cuba and a variety of countries. And when you have 394 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,479 Speaker 1: Americans in trouble, you need someone to check on them, 395 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 1: and there's no one better than Americans. So what would 396 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: you call that? You would just have an intersect and 397 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: representative and so as Wow, so that could be a 398 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 1: takeaway is that US Office? Now now this said the 399 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: Secretary POMPEII was repeatedly stated that we will not be 400 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 1: lifting sanctions until there's a complete denuclearization of the of 401 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: of of the North Korean military program. That's gonna be 402 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: hugely difficult, and the North Koreans will demand significant concessions 403 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: in the United States and in terms of our presence 404 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 1: in South Korea. Alright, coming up, we're gonna stick with 405 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: North Korea. And Norm is gonna weigh in on in particular, 406 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 1: what specifically why why the North Koreans should trust that 407 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: the US isn't just preparing for a war in North Korea. Remember, folks, 408 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: you can download the sound on podcasts on Apple iTunes, 409 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. 410 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: You can find us on Radio dot com and on 411 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: I Heart Radio. Norm Rules stays, Andrew Bishops stays, and 412 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Sireley, Bloomberg News Chief Washington correspondent. I will 413 00:22:54,720 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: stay and you're listening to Bloomberg. This is owned on 414 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: with Kevin's really on Bloomberg and one Oh Fie m 415 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 1: h D two, Baltimore. Happy Friday, folks. We are still 416 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: negotiating with the Chinese on US China trade talks. It 417 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 1: was the dominant story out of six Pennsylvania Avenue today. 418 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 1: The other big story, President Trump heads to Hanoi and 419 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: we will be broadcasting from Hannoi Good Morning Vietnam next 420 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: week our radio show, UH. And we'll be reporting on 421 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television live from that summit with North Korean dictator 422 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,199 Speaker 1: Kim Joe June and special coverage as he meets with 423 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: President Trump. My guest with me for the our Norm Rule, 424 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 1: former CIA intelligence officer who has managed virtually every program 425 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:48,479 Speaker 1: in the Middle East, retired in and Andrew Bishop, partner 426 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: and global head of Policy research at Signal Global Advisors, 427 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 1: also formerly of the World Economic Forum and the Aurasia Group. Norm. 428 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: We were talking about US no CO talks as they 429 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,719 Speaker 1: head next week. And Uh, I want to play for 430 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: you what President Trump said just a couple of hours 431 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,880 Speaker 1: ago in the Oval and get your response. Here's President 432 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 1: Trump on Kim Jungan and it's not a consideration. That 433 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 1: is not one of the things on the table. Oh, 434 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 1: you really want me to discuss that everything is on 435 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: the table. So everything's on the table according to President Trump. 436 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: And our previous segment, you were talking about how the 437 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 1: President Uh, you kind of said that there might be 438 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: a situation where there's some US representatives maybe in North Korea. 439 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 1: But why should Kim Jong, a thirty something dictator, why 440 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: should he trust that the US isn't just trying to 441 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 1: slowly tighten its grip around North Korea. Well, in many ways, 442 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: the concessions he would seek from the United States are 443 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 1: are easy to identify and easy to measure. He would 444 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: want a cessation of sanctions and normalization of North Korea's 445 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 1: political stature in the world, and ease of travel UH 446 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: restrictions on his country. He would want a reduction of 447 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: American troops in in South Korea, a reduction of the 448 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: American military presence in the Pacific, and an end to 449 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: South Korean American exercises. You can measure all of these things. 450 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: The hard thing for the United States is the North 451 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,399 Speaker 1: Koreans have repeatedly cheated on the concessions that they have 452 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 1: offered when they when well, and I should say the 453 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: I E. Has just come out today with another report 454 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: saying the Iranians have executed their ja their nuclear deal 455 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 1: obligations once more. But that's a different that's a different story. 456 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 1: But for North Korea, they have cheated twice in the 457 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: Young Bond Nuclear Facility, which is a very large complex 458 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: about three point four square miles, which dozens of buildings. 459 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: They promised to dismantle things, they did dismantle some structures, 460 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: and then they quickly reconstituted these structures after they were 461 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: achieved concessions. That's a great point I'm to Sandra. Actually, 462 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 1: very briefly, which you really want to see in these 463 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 1: talks is irreversible steps. Right, So if you think about 464 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 1: North Korea has say thirty to sixty nuclear weapons, if 465 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 1: North Korea handed the US twelve of those weapons, we 466 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: would clap and think that's a huge achievement. But because 467 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 1: it's not an irreversible move in the sense that they 468 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: would still have, you know, thirty to forty, it really 469 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: wouldn't do much. So what you want to see is 470 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: them not just shutting down their facilities but actually destroying them. 471 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 1: That's very unlikely. Next week, what do you think, norm 472 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: or how do you how would you grade Russia and 473 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 1: China's involvement in working with the US to get Kim 474 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 1: Jung in to to give up the nukes mixed. I 475 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: don't think the Russians or Chinese are in some ways 476 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 1: enthusiastic about a settlement of this um um um problem 477 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 1: if it were to achieve an expansion of US influence 478 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 1: in the region UH. The Chinese and the Russians have 479 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: each been responsible for evading sanctions, particularly on those exports 480 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 1: of coal, iron and other shipments from the North Koreans, 481 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: which have enabled the regime to serve vive over the years. 482 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 1: There's a tremendous or has been a tremendous flow of 483 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: ships UH in the Pacific near of lad of Ostock 484 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: and Hborska, where the Russians have again cheated in violating sanctions. 485 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: This said, right now the momentum is um moving in 486 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: a good direction. I think Andrew had an excellent point, 487 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 1: irreversible something everyone is looking forward. The question becomes for 488 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 1: the administration, what if they said, we're not looking for 489 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,440 Speaker 1: a final solution to this problem, We're looking for progress 490 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 1: and problems. Might be twelve nuclear weapons turned over, but 491 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 1: in return North Koreans would demand significant concessions, and I 492 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 1: think he would find many of the President's critics would 493 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 1: say he had given too much for two less. So 494 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: the last time I was over there Singapore for the 495 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 1: first summit between Kim j and President Trump, it was 496 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 1: like this, this monumental press conference, and before the President 497 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: Trump press conference got started, they played this video that 498 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: was like a futuristic this could be North Korea if 499 00:27:55,480 --> 00:28:00,360 Speaker 1: they cooperate with the US and cooperate with the West, uh. 500 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 1: And it was fascinating to see sort of a glimpse 501 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 1: into how the US was making a pitch to North Korea, 502 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: which is one of the most isolated I would argue 503 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: the most one of, if not the most isolated places 504 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: on Earth. And just information inside of North Korea just 505 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 1: so controlled to the point where it's heartbreaking to see 506 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 1: the conditions and lack of democratic values uh that are 507 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: that don't exist there. But you know, we make light 508 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 1: of Dennis Rodman, and we make light of basketball being 509 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: and being away to I don't want to say groom, 510 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: but to but to influence perhaps a thirtysothing dictator who 511 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 1: grew up in an international um elite boarding school. How 512 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: referring to Kim Jong un, norm how how did something 513 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: like basketball or how does the US use sort of 514 00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 1: soft power to influence these high steak and I don't 515 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: I'm not trying to make a light but as a 516 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: serious question, how did they influence these types of high 517 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: stake negotiations and situations like North Korea or even just 518 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: even more broadly speaking, And you've touched on a great point. 519 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 1: I've always um suggested when people ask what's the isolation 520 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,080 Speaker 1: North Korea? Like, they take a look at the electric 521 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: light profile of North Korea. You can get this on 522 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 1: Google where lights are in the world. North Korea is black. 523 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: There's nothing there is comparison to South Korea, or or 524 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 1: or Russia. In fact, next month, the North Koreans have 525 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 1: already announced that next month's food rations will be cut 526 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: because they're experiencing yet another famine. But you, you, you, you, 527 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 1: you hit on the issue with with Kim Jong un, 528 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: the President United States is consistently uh chosen is his 529 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 1: tactic of of approaching this young leader and saying, just 530 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 1: imagine who you could be. You could be a South 531 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 1: Korea if only you adopt a different route. Now, this 532 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: man is a different he's grown up differently. He has 533 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 1: a military which is very strong. He is a different 534 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 1: propaganda culture which he's got to uh to to to 535 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: to to to get over. But at the same time, 536 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: the Trump administration's position has consistently been you can be 537 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,080 Speaker 1: wonderful things if you only take yes for an answer. 538 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 1: And I'm struck by just how so domestically you look 539 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 1: at it through the domestic lens. Democrats have criticized the 540 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 1: president for elevating Kim Jong un on the on the 541 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 1: global stage by by by having a warm public uh, 542 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: negotiations with him praiseworthy, I mean, saying that he's a 543 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: friend and whatnot. Uh. But from what I'm gathering from you, 544 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: Norm is that this is part of a very interesting 545 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 1: maneuvering of almost I mean, I don't want to say 546 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:46,080 Speaker 1: President Trump is the Dennis Rodman of politics, but like 547 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 1: that type of of style and Dennis Rodman having been 548 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 1: over there, having met with Kim Jong n. I mean, 549 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's in the weird bizarre. Can't believe 550 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 1: I'm saying this, but it almost feels orchestrated. So so 551 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: let's be here. Kim Jong n runs a country which 552 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 1: is a vast prison campaign. Anyways, he has killed, probably 553 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 1: is responsible for maybe the deaths of tens, if not 554 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of his own people, to include Americans. 555 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 1: And this, this can't be covered up. That said, if 556 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 1: you're going for a future relationship, he's the only North 557 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,720 Speaker 1: Korean dictator you've got. You know, you've got to deal 558 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: with him, and you've got to offer him a better 559 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 1: and a different future. And this is the tactic the 560 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: president has chosen. But it does expose the president to 561 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 1: the to the to the two opponents turning to him saying, look, 562 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 1: how you're treating a man who is indeed um an 563 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: evil dictator. I could talk with normal Uh, virtually, as 564 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,200 Speaker 1: you know, for a very long time, and I know 565 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: you have to run, and you've been very generous with 566 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 1: your time. Normal Rule, former CIA intelligence officer managing numerous 567 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 1: programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. Uh, thank 568 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 1: you very much for coming on. Andrew Bishop stays he's 569 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,720 Speaker 1: partner in Global head of policy research at Signal Global Advisors. 570 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 1: Coming up, we stick with North Korea. I'm headed to Vietnam, 571 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 1: votes and hannoy. We're also going to a touch on 572 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 1: Venezuela as well as all of the other developments that 573 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: have occurred on a busy policy Wonky International News Day. Remember, 574 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 1: you can check us out on iTunes download the sound 575 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 1: On podcast on Apple iTunes. You can also get us 576 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com or by downloading the Bloomberg Business 577 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,080 Speaker 1: app and on Radio dot com and I Heart Radio. 578 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin CURRELLI you're listening to Bloomberg. You're listening to 579 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Surreally on Bloomberg and one oh 580 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: five point seven m h D two Baltimore. Will I 581 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 1: vitel and I don't think it survives a vitel. We 582 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,480 Speaker 1: have too many smart people that one border security, so 583 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: I can't imagine it could survive the vitail. But I 584 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 1: will veto it. Yes, that was President Trump saying that 585 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 1: he will in fact veto any type of legislation shouldn't 586 00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 1: make it to his desk that would rish strict him 587 00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 1: from declaring a national emergency along the US Mexico border. 588 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 1: We're anticipating that a House vote on that measure will 589 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 1: occur on Tuesday in the Democratic controlled House, let of course, 590 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: by Speaker Nancy Pelosi. What's unclear now is whether or 591 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 1: not the Republican controlled Senate it will be able to 592 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 1: clear the Senate Senator Susan Collins, a Republican centrist from Maine, 593 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: has already said that she would vote to restrict the 594 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 1: president's authority to declare a national emergency. Meanwhile, you've got 595 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: all of those states, let of course by California suing 596 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 1: the President saying that he doesn't have the authority to 597 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: do that, likely going to end up in the Ninth 598 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 1: Circon and then maybe even all the way up to 599 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. Should the President take the legislative approach 600 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 1: and veto this, it appears very much unlikely that there 601 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 1: would be two thirds of the majority for it to 602 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: be over ruled or overrun over ridden uh in the 603 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 1: in the Congress US. Meanwhile, we're also closely monitoring the 604 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 1: situation with President Trump negotiating next week with North Korea 605 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 1: leader Kim John Noon headlines crossing the Bloomberg terminal as 606 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,400 Speaker 1: we speak, Folks. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will participate 607 00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 1: in the Hannoy summit and then travel to the Philippines. 608 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,319 Speaker 1: He will be with President Trump next week negotiating with 609 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 1: Kim Joanon. Andrew Bishop is Partner in Global Head of 610 00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 1: Policy Research at Signal Global Advisors, started by Charles Meyer 611 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 1: formed previously of ever Corps Andrew. He's also worked with 612 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,320 Speaker 1: Ian Bremer at the Eurasia Group and at the World 613 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,359 Speaker 1: Economic Forum. You lived in like France, right, You grew 614 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: up in France. I grew up in France. Was born 615 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,880 Speaker 1: in Belgium and moved to the US from Switzerland. My 616 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 1: dad was American though, so I'm I'm a US I 617 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,399 Speaker 1: like Canyon and keep up with anything you just said? 618 00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: How's macron doned? McCrone was in trouble and he seems 619 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: to be doing much better now. I think the big 620 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,959 Speaker 1: question is whether he can restart his reform program without 621 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 1: getting in trouble again. From the population. Okay, what has 622 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 1: of all the countries you just rattled off? Which is 623 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,239 Speaker 1: the best food eating country that has to be lebing 624 00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,920 Speaker 1: on by far country? Okay? Okay, um, what else is 625 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 1: on your radar? Because Venezuela, Mike President Vice President Mike 626 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 1: Pence headed to Colombia on Monday to deal with the 627 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 1: whole Venezuela situation. Yeah. So there's there's a big deadline tomorrow, 628 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: which is when February twenty three, which is when the 629 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 1: AID is supposed to come into Venezuela, and a lot 630 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 1: of people expect that that could force the military to 631 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,839 Speaker 1: essentially back down and uh and and switch sides. Now, 632 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,279 Speaker 1: the problem is if that doesn't happen, there's not a 633 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,839 Speaker 1: lot of other options for the Venezuelan opposition coming months 634 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 1: to to really gather more momentum. And if that wasn't enough, 635 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,760 Speaker 1: You've got Vice President Mike Pennce headed to Colombia on 636 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: Monday for Venezuela. You've got President Trump headed to Hanoi 637 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,680 Speaker 1: to meet with North Korea dictator Kim Jung in. You 638 00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:01,919 Speaker 1: got Fed Chair j Powell testifying Capitol Hill midweek next 639 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 1: week in the Senate and in the House. Oh yeah, 640 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:09,839 Speaker 1: don't forget about Chinese Vice Premier Hua, who has extended 641 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,360 Speaker 1: his negotiations day by two days. He'll be here all weekend. 642 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 1: Next week is going to be crazy. But if anyone 643 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 1: was looking to catch their breath, remember that it's now appearing, 644 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 1: according to the Associated Press, that the finalized summary of 645 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 1: the Mueller Report might likely not occur next week, as 646 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,799 Speaker 1: CNN had previously reported earlier this week. I'm headed to 647 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 1: Hannoi Andrew Bishop, and I want to thank you for 648 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:38,319 Speaker 1: coming on for the hour. Andrew Bishop is Partner of 649 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 1: Global policy research at signum Uh. We're gonna be broadcasting 650 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:46,520 Speaker 1: from Annoi, my first international official radio broadcast, Good Morning Vietnam. 651 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,040 Speaker 1: Check us out on Apple, iTunes, Radio dot Com, as 652 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 1: well as I Heart Radio and on the bloombird business app. 653 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,279 Speaker 1: That's it for me. I'm Kevin Serelli. You're listening so Bloombird. 654 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:08,359 Speaker 1: I'll see you in Vietnam.