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Speaker 1: Surveillance continues. Global business news twenty four hours a day

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and

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Speaker 1: on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash. And

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Speaker 1: I'm kinda in Moscow, US do in. Day's futures are

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Speaker 1: a little change to lower this morning. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: the First Word Breaking news desk for today's morning call,

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Speaker 1: and here's Bill Maloney. Good morning, Bill, Good morning Karen.

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Speaker 1: That's right. US futures are quiet today. Dow futures currently

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Speaker 1: lower by twenty points. As a peas and as a

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Speaker 1: futures are lower by two. The US ten yield at

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Speaker 1: one point eight five percent, and your PM markets are

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Speaker 1: mostly lower this morning. Frances down point four per cent

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Speaker 1: on the US Economic FRONDA eight thirty non farm productivity

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Speaker 1: and initial jobs claims at market, US Services p M

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Speaker 1: I and at ten o'clock I as M, non manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: composite factory orders and durable goods orders and other news.

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Speaker 1: Herbalife said active new member data had errors, shares it

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Speaker 1: down eight percent pre market, and a deal lose the

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Speaker 1: Wallstet Jump reported. Samson Nite said near a deal to

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Speaker 1: buy Toomy after the bellas night, American Eagle Q and

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Speaker 1: EPs VW top de estimates, Costco missed and regarding aarrings

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Speaker 1: this morning, Joy Global Q and loss was wider than expected.

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Speaker 1: Tech day to beat and cianna Q when adjusted. EPs

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Speaker 1: also beat. Following something Q Wall shoot upgrades and downgrades

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Speaker 1: at Bank of America, Alcola cut to neutral, Lateral Energy

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Speaker 1: raised to neutral, and Marathon Petroleum raised to buy. Sherton

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Speaker 1: Williams raised to buy over at City Group, Intel raised

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Speaker 1: to outperform at Robert Baird and Freeport mcmarhan cut to

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Speaker 1: neutral versus by over at UBS Live from the First

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Speaker 1: Breaking News Desk on Bill Maloney, Karen alright, thanks billan

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Speaker 1: to hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg type squawk

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Speaker 1: and go on your terminal. That's s Q you a

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Speaker 1: w K go and that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom

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Speaker 1: and Mike, Karen, thanks so much. Futures negative two in

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Speaker 1: a turn to the screen as well. Bloomberg Surveillance brought

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Speaker 1: you by Investco. Investco believes it's time to bench the

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Speaker 1: benchmarks to can center active management and factor based strategies.

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Speaker 1: Find out more at investco dot com. Slash high Conviction

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Speaker 1: without Question. The chart of the day Neil Data Renaissance Macro, Folks,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to send it out because it's his

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Speaker 1: proprietary chart. We protect copyright here. Contact Renaissance Macro for

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Speaker 1: his wonderful chart. Stewart often, you know the chart layoffs

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Speaker 1: and layoff announcements the American economy and then separate energy.

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Speaker 1: I have no idea how stark it is. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we know energy is flat on its back, but the

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Speaker 1: layoff announcements for the rest of America are shockingly good.

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Speaker 1: How does the FED handle that? Well? The FED knows,

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Speaker 1: I mean he can't directly target the energy industry. I

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Speaker 1: haven't seen the chart, but you know the Challenger of

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Speaker 1: Gray Christmas number was out. It did show a drop

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Speaker 1: in UH in layoffs in January and February. January February, though,

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Speaker 1: we're still up by thirty three percent from a year ago.

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Speaker 1: But as you mentioned of the layoffs, twenty five thousand

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Speaker 1: people in the month of February. Now those are announced layoffs.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't mean they're out of the job yet, but

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Speaker 1: will be soon. But look at what's happened now for

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Speaker 1: we'll see tomorrow, probably tomorrow, the fourteenth straight months losses

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Speaker 1: in the energy industry, and they've been averaging about ten

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Speaker 1: thousand a month uh since frankly, January of twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 1: and this suggests they may be picking up the pace

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Speaker 1: of that. Uh. And that's one of the reasons why.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I've got about two hundred thousands rising jobs tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: but for the whole year, you know, we're thinking we'll

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Speaker 1: goou ate closer to two million jobs. Last year we

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Speaker 1: created two point seven million. And part of that difference

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Speaker 1: is layoffs in the energy industry going in to adding

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Speaker 1: to laying off in and probably even deeper in. But

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Speaker 1: from the FEDS point of view, uh, you know, they

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Speaker 1: can't target the energy industry. They know that the supply issue.

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Speaker 1: I think they have to look, as you said, at

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Speaker 1: what's happening outside of energy. Knowing both in energy and manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: there what economists like to call multiplier effects. You throw

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Speaker 1: the stone into the lake and the ripples go around,

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Speaker 1: and that is going to affect other industries, other companies,

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Speaker 1: and other individuals. But you're right, so far it's been

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Speaker 1: extraordinarily contained. And then Mike, you know it goes to

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Speaker 1: Kruger's to America's this is a different debate. There's a

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Speaker 1: debate about labor economy and wage growth. In a broader

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Speaker 1: macro view, this is about the micro dynamics of job

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Speaker 1: formation and disformation. It's a different story. Yeah. I mean

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Speaker 1: one of the least followed numbers by economists is the

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Speaker 1: Challenger Job Cuts report, because it's worldwide, not just in

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Speaker 1: the United States, and many of the those jobs never

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Speaker 1: actually get cut or it's attrition. But when you uh,

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Speaker 1: the real question Stewart is, of course, when you have

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Speaker 1: we knew that there is there have been layoffs and

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Speaker 1: left more laoffs coming in the energy industry. It's when

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Speaker 1: it follows on when when the energy people are no

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Speaker 1: longer working in, no longer spending money at the local stores,

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Speaker 1: and the local stores go out of business. That's a problem.

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Speaker 1: And I note that in North Dakota the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: is still two point even after all the layoffs. Well,

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Speaker 1: Michael to I think that gets to the idea that

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Speaker 1: you know, well we are reading about announced layoffs and energy.

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Speaker 1: Nobody in maybe the transportation industry, the airlines, or the

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Speaker 1: hotels and the motels, or technology or some parts of

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Speaker 1: manufacturing said we higher twenty thousand or a thousand people

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Speaker 1: this month because our energy costs are down, and that

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Speaker 1: is a big savings and we're seeing a little strong

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Speaker 1: or demand. So you you, you know, you always hear

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Speaker 1: the bad news, and there is plenty of it and legitimate,

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Speaker 1: but what you don't see is the good news. The

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Speaker 1: only way you kind of see it in general was

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Speaker 1: look at the total job numbers and if they're up

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Speaker 1: two hundred thousand tomorrow despite the layoffs and energy, and

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Speaker 1: looking over the last twelve or thirteen months, jobs are

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Speaker 1: up about two hundred thousand a month, even absorbing the

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Speaker 1: losses and energy. So there are positive effects of people

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Speaker 1: getting jobs or keeping jobs, or maybe now getting better

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Speaker 1: wages because of the dropping energy. And I've been adamant

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Speaker 1: about the fact that the net impact on the US

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Speaker 1: economy of lower energy prices is positive, but a lot

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Speaker 1: of distributional effects and there's not much the FED can

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Speaker 1: or should do about it. And by the way, it's

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Speaker 1: also helping Europe, it's helping Japan, it's helping China. Maybe

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Speaker 1: not enough, but think of where the U s economy

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Speaker 1: and some of those economies might be if casoline was

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Speaker 1: coming up on fifty a gallon and oil prices were

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Speaker 1: still nine hundred bucks a gallon. It's not to say

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Speaker 1: the least. Stewart Offen brilliant. Thank you so much with

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Speaker 1: p NC Financial. Michael McKie, John Tucker emailing me yesterday

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Speaker 1: in the middle of the show, I think you know

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Speaker 1: as our as our proxy for cheap New Jersey gas.

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Speaker 1: Mr Tucker was suggesting a dollar fifty six was my memory.

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Speaker 1: Could we get under a dollar and I'm not ready

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Speaker 1: for that as well on an inflation of justin basis

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Speaker 1: here there um, but we need John to come in

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Speaker 1: and tell us what he's spending his extra money on. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we do, no question about that. Economic data. Will review

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Speaker 1: productivity later today. Bloomberg's Surveillance coming up. With all due

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