WEBVTT - The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I am Nate Silver. Well, shit is getting real.

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<v Speaker 2>It's one week to go to the presidential election. And

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<v Speaker 2>since this is a show about making good decisions, we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to talk about some of the good and bad

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<v Speaker 2>spoiler alert, mostly bad decisions that the campaigns have made

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<v Speaker 2>so far in the race. How are they managing risk

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<v Speaker 2>and reward?

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<v Speaker 1>And after that, since we are a week out, we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to look at the Silver Bulletin model and see

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<v Speaker 1>where we stand and what this next week is shaping

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<v Speaker 1>up to look like. The news this week has been

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<v Speaker 1>I think more Trump dominant than it has been for

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<v Speaker 1>a while while, maybe since the assassination. I'm attempt I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not sure, but I think you actually did Google words

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<v Speaker 1>analysis or something like that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the number of people searching for Trump is the

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<v Speaker 2>highest that it has been since the second assassination attempt,

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<v Speaker 2>and you've not seen that spike for Harris. So sometimes

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<v Speaker 2>having Google news searches is good at might indicate voter interest,

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<v Speaker 2>but this seems like it's at least potentially correlated with

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<v Speaker 2>with the rally that Trump held outside my apartment. Basis right.

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to say, in your backyard, some square garden.

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<v Speaker 2>I lived near Messi's Fort Garden, which is tremendously convenient

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<v Speaker 2>when you're going to Rangers games or Knicks games. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>a fan of both teams. A great start for the Rangers,

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<v Speaker 2>by the way. But Trump also decided to have a

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<v Speaker 2>rally there on Sunday went all day. I was like, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe there's a next game nine. I'm not doing anything. Nope,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump rally woke up at eight am. You hear Houghton

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<v Speaker 2>and outside your window, and then all day my block

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<v Speaker 2>is cordoned off. You have to show your idea to

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<v Speaker 2>to you know, if you go get coffee, it'll go

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<v Speaker 2>show your idea when you get back. So a comedian

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<v Speaker 2>named Tony Henschliff, I believe that's fanatic, made a disparaging

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<v Speaker 2>comment about.

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<v Speaker 1>Puerto Rican disparaging comment.

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<v Speaker 2>A joke, many.

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<v Speaker 1>Disparaging comments, but yes one in particular.

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<v Speaker 2>You called it a floating island of garbage, very dry

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<v Speaker 2>humor at best. John Stewart defended him. I don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>but like you know, Puerto Ricans, there's actually a fairly

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<v Speaker 2>large Puerto Rican population in Pennsylvania. But you know, you

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<v Speaker 2>had the all Stars. I don't know how to put it.

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<v Speaker 2>You got Rudy Giuliani, you got Hope Hogan, you got

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<v Speaker 2>Elon Musk. I know, if it's jumping around, I tried

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<v Speaker 2>to avoid it, but this is kind of the major

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<v Speaker 2>news cycle heading to the final week of the campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>It dovetails with some other messaging that Kamala Hair is

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<v Speaker 2>focused on. She is giving recordings on Tuesday early afternoon

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<v Speaker 2>Tuesday night Eastern time. Harris is holding a rally in Washington,

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<v Speaker 2>d C. At a location where Trump It's called it

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<v Speaker 2>the Ellipse maybe or the Eclipse or something. I know,

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<v Speaker 2>DC where Trump initiated the insurrection riot. Some people call

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<v Speaker 2>it a coup. I think the coup experts say it's not.

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<v Speaker 2>It's sparkling insurrection or not coup or something.

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't come from the coup region of Francia.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but trying to bring this home to h January

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<v Speaker 2>sixth and Trump's threats to democracy, which is, oh boy,

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<v Speaker 2>now I'm gonna piss summer ar listeners. Not a message

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<v Speaker 2>that one has to wonder whether it might be a

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<v Speaker 2>little stale. This was a message that Joe Biden kicked

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<v Speaker 2>his campaign off, and look, I believe that uh Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think January six was really bad and

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<v Speaker 2>I think he has no respect for the rule of

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<v Speaker 2>law and the guardrails are weaker. And you know, to

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<v Speaker 2>an elite like me, uh, college educated elite like me, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>this messaging has a lot of resonance, but I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know that it has as much message with swing voters.

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<v Speaker 2>But anyway, Trump avy is kind of u the New

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<v Speaker 2>York what The New York Times called a closing carnival

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<v Speaker 2>of grievances, misogyny and racism plays into her hands a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit when she had lacked the closing message. So

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<v Speaker 2>I guess are we saying good decision or bad decision

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<v Speaker 2>to have this?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, So this is a This is an interesting one

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, there's the old saying that all publicity

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<v Speaker 1>is good publicity, but in this particular case, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>actually know if that's the case, because there are some

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<v Speaker 1>people who did not endorse Kamala Harris for president before

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<v Speaker 1>who all of a sudden rose up and were like,

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<v Speaker 1>what the fuck? You know? So we have we have

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<v Speaker 1>peany Yeah, bad bunny, Mark, Anthony J. Lo, Ricky Martin.

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<v Speaker 1>There are tons of people people whose names, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>like obviously Bad Bunny we hear all the time in

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<v Speaker 1>j LO, you know, in the context of Ben Affleck

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<v Speaker 1>we hear recently. But but like Mark Anthony and Ricky Martin,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm like, whoa blast from the past.

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<v Speaker 2>I have Martin and Ricky Martin reunion tour. It would

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<v Speaker 2>sell out masses for gardens.

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<v Speaker 1>It absolutely would. And that's when I started looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the number of their followers. I was like, holy shit, Like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this could actually, Like I'm not talking about

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<v Speaker 1>like Bad Bundy, who has over eighteen million followers, Like

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<v Speaker 1>these are people with massive reach, and as we've talked about,

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<v Speaker 1>like even fractions of a percent in swing states matter.

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<v Speaker 1>So I am wondering if that specific thing is going

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<v Speaker 1>to matter on the on the margins, and so in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of good decision bad decision, I'm not sure. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if all these I actually I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>if swing voters are listening, if undecided are listening. If

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<v Speaker 1>they are, then maybe it was a bad decision. What

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<v Speaker 1>do you think name?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I don't think old people like well you

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<v Speaker 2>should a little reality in Pennsylvania. I mean He's had

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of fucking rallies in Pennsylvania, you know the

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<v Speaker 2>nash press attention that you get from this, but these

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<v Speaker 2>this is like some of the most negative headlines, yes

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<v Speaker 2>from the liberal media that Trump's gotten in weeks, but

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<v Speaker 2>also from some news outlets like Politico or writers that

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<v Speaker 2>are studiously neutral and in their headline choices are pointing

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<v Speaker 2>out comments that they call racist, they don't say racially

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<v Speaker 2>charged or and those probably aren't great headlines for Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>And I don't know, I mean again, he is relying

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<v Speaker 2>on picking up a substantial share of the vote from

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<v Speaker 2>black and Hispanic voters. If you look at the polls,

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<v Speaker 2>or something like a fifteen point shift among black voters.

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<v Speaker 2>Supposedly there is something like a a eight point shift

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<v Speaker 2>among Hispanic voters that vary their poll to poll. This

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<v Speaker 2>is pre rally, yeah, rally, but yeah, maybe have to

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<v Speaker 2>look at the Puerto Rican demographics and more detail. I

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<v Speaker 2>think this coterie of people that Trump surrounds himself with,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I don't know, it's a goof a goofy

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<v Speaker 2>law of act is you know at sight, I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know what why more some Australian accent there. It's all good.

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<v Speaker 1>I love it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not putting. Yeah, I think it's a bad decision

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<v Speaker 2>to have this guy speak, and you had Republicans, your

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<v Speaker 2>Republicans apologizing for it. That's kind of a relatively objective benchmark. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>for rich Scott, the Republican Senate tour, one of them

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<v Speaker 2>in Florida had to apologize for this.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. And you know, Pennsylvania has approximately half a million

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<v Speaker 1>Puerto Ricans, So like to think that they thought that

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<v Speaker 1>this was a good, good thing to do is just

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<v Speaker 1>kind of crazy. It just goes to show that Trump

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<v Speaker 1>truly does think that he can get away with anything

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. And it doesn't matter. It's like this,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's this Hubris that's next level.

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<v Speaker 2>He's not a detailed guy. No, I don't think Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is going with a red pan call it when he's

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<v Speaker 2>a red pin or a black I don't think Crump's

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<v Speaker 2>going over with a sharpie.

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<v Speaker 1>Sharp as his instrument of choice, that's true.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I don't think he's going only with a sharpie

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<v Speaker 2>and vetoing individual jokes. But but anyway, you want to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about some earlier Yes.

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<v Speaker 1>So, so I think I think we I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>coming down on the line of bad decisions. But since

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about Puerto Rico and Pennsylvania and Puerto Ricans

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<v Speaker 1>and Pennsylvania, let's go back in time to another pivotal

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<v Speaker 1>campaign decision, which is choice of vice presidential candidate. And

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<v Speaker 1>we we have our listeners know what you think, NATEA

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<v Speaker 1>and what I think. But let's just let's just talk

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<v Speaker 1>through it right now with one week ago until the election.

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<v Speaker 1>Vice presidential candidate choice. Good decision, bad decision, overrated, underrated

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of a factor.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was a bad decision to go with

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<v Speaker 2>Tim Walls, who has been very much backgrounded after being

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<v Speaker 2>part of this bratt summer. I mean, the argument was

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<v Speaker 2>that at least he can kind of crack these like

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<v Speaker 2>dad jokes and me a good public speaker. They haven't

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<v Speaker 2>had him do that many TV appearances. When he has

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<v Speaker 2>done them, he seemed very nervous. He kind of sucked,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not gonna pull punches, especially in the early half

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<v Speaker 2>of the jd Vance debate, and then the whole message

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<v Speaker 2>that hey, buddy or just two guys hanging out having

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<v Speaker 2>a debate, when the rest of the Kamala campaign has

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<v Speaker 2>been about like what a unique threat is and how

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<v Speaker 2>we should not normalize this. I just thought was like

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<v Speaker 2>was very strange, and you also would like to have.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Shapira accomplishes two things. The more important one,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, is that he is the governor of this

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<v Speaker 2>really important state called Pennsylvania, an extra Pennsylvania. It's exact

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<v Speaker 2>scenario that Harris would most want to have Jos Shapiro.

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<v Speaker 2>Where Michigan is polling half a point to a point

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<v Speaker 2>ahead for Harris, Wisconsin's pulling half a point to a

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<v Speaker 2>point ahead. Pennsylvania is a pure tie zero point three

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<v Speaker 2>points in favor of Trump according to our polling average.

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<v Speaker 2>And so boy, just to have one extra percentage point

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<v Speaker 2>in Pennsylvania, so doesn't kind of fall It's not the

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<v Speaker 2>straggler falling behind the line. Also, it would have like

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<v Speaker 2>signaled more of a break toward this new generation of talent.

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats have a lot of talented members. I mean, boy,

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<v Speaker 2>one good thing is if if Harris loses for Democrats

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<v Speaker 2>is that they actually have a really robust bench. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, her career is going to be over it.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe she'll try to run percent or something again, right,

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<v Speaker 2>probably get some university president job. I don't know, but

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<v Speaker 2>you know, but they have Shapiro and Gretchen Whimer and

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<v Speaker 2>Wes Moore in Maryland and ruffel Moarnock and Georgia, and

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<v Speaker 2>they have a robust bench and like, you know, maybe

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<v Speaker 2>the bench is better than the starting quarterback, but you

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<v Speaker 2>are able to pick from the bench. And instead they went,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know what they did exactly, they went and

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<v Speaker 2>like drafted a guy from like the Arena football or something.

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<v Speaker 2>I just I think this is decision that, as I

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<v Speaker 2>was critical of at the time, I think is not

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<v Speaker 2>held up very well.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I completely agree with that. And let me add

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<v Speaker 1>to what you said. It's not just Pennsylvania. You alluded

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<v Speaker 1>to this, but I think Shapiro has much better debating skills,

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<v Speaker 1>would have come off much better against JD. Vance and

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<v Speaker 1>in general right now, would be probably hammering home more guided,

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<v Speaker 1>pointed messages with kind of the end game. This was

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<v Speaker 1>is something we talked about last week that the campaign

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<v Speaker 1>has been a little bit wishy washy hasn't really figured out,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what are we going to hammer home, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like abortion or whatever it is in these last weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think Shapiro would have actually probably been much

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<v Speaker 1>better at that and so on the margin that might

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<v Speaker 1>have helped with other swing voters. So I will agree

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<v Speaker 1>with you bad decision for all of these.

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<v Speaker 2>Reasons if you're running on personality, Because look, Harris doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>really have ambitious new plans. You go to like the

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<v Speaker 2>issue section of her page, her homepage and says a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of heroes was a prosecutor. She cares about the people, like, no, honey,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to know about the fucking issues. That's why

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<v Speaker 2>I kicks on the issues page. Enough bio, enough fucking vibes.

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<v Speaker 2>What are your issues? And she's been very afraid of

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<v Speaker 2>that because on the one hand, she doesn't want to

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<v Speaker 2>own the unpopular accomplishments of like the Biden Harris administration

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<v Speaker 2>in their hands. She wants to run away from her

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<v Speaker 2>unpopular positions in twenty nineteen, and like ambitious new government

0:12:42.204 --> 0:12:44.844
<v Speaker 2>spending programs are harder sell in an environment where there's

0:12:44.884 --> 0:12:49.044
<v Speaker 2>lots of concern about inflation and deficits and interest rates

0:12:49.364 --> 0:12:52.884
<v Speaker 2>and things like that. And so I don't know, at

0:12:52.964 --> 0:12:56.964
<v Speaker 2>least with Shapiro, you have two really strong personalities. Maybe

0:12:56.964 --> 0:12:58.444
<v Speaker 2>they clash a little bit, but you can do things

0:12:58.484 --> 0:13:02.924
<v Speaker 2>with clashing personalities. What are podcasts all about Maria clashing personalities.

0:13:04.924 --> 0:13:10.044
<v Speaker 3>No, man, it's just yeah, yeah, And I think, well, well,

0:13:10.484 --> 0:13:12.524
<v Speaker 3>there's something in there that will will come back to

0:13:12.604 --> 0:13:14.884
<v Speaker 3>because it's another kind of good decision, bad decision, because

0:13:14.884 --> 0:13:17.884
<v Speaker 3>obviously Kamwell Harris is in a really shitty position because

0:13:17.884 --> 0:13:20.964
<v Speaker 3>she's still the VP, Biden is still president and she

0:13:21.324 --> 0:13:23.644
<v Speaker 3>you know, she's also running, and she she has been

0:13:23.684 --> 0:13:27.644
<v Speaker 3>put in this unfortunate place where where it does kind

0:13:27.644 --> 0:13:30.564
<v Speaker 3>of put a damper on the types of things that

0:13:30.604 --> 0:13:32.244
<v Speaker 3>she feels that she kind of can't say.

0:13:32.884 --> 0:13:35.524
<v Speaker 1>But before we move on to that, let's let's do

0:13:35.604 --> 0:13:38.484
<v Speaker 1>this decision for the Republican camp as well. Jd Vance

0:13:38.564 --> 0:13:40.124
<v Speaker 1>good decision, bad decision.

0:13:40.964 --> 0:13:44.644
<v Speaker 2>Also a bad decision. I mean there was like the

0:13:44.684 --> 0:13:49.084
<v Speaker 2>season of jd Vance like couch jokes misinformation by the way,

0:13:49.124 --> 0:13:54.444
<v Speaker 2>but jokes are okay if they're about Republicans. But like,

0:13:54.524 --> 0:13:58.964
<v Speaker 2>he remains I believe maybe the most unpopular VP and history.

0:13:59.004 --> 0:14:00.804
<v Speaker 2>I think Sarah Palin stumbers were declined at this points.

0:14:00.804 --> 0:14:05.364
<v Speaker 2>That's probably a close two way race. Ohio is not

0:14:05.444 --> 0:14:07.884
<v Speaker 2>a swing state. It does have a competitive Senate race.

0:14:08.244 --> 0:14:09.924
<v Speaker 2>He is a good debater, I mean, Jie advances like

0:14:10.004 --> 0:14:13.364
<v Speaker 2>the blogger personality type, right, Jadadvance would be a good

0:14:13.364 --> 0:14:17.484
<v Speaker 2>podcaster and a good blogger, and that probably correlates well

0:14:17.524 --> 0:14:21.044
<v Speaker 2>with doing a relatively effective job at the debate, although

0:14:21.044 --> 0:14:24.484
<v Speaker 2>again he was also hamstrung by not wind to deny

0:14:24.524 --> 0:14:27.844
<v Speaker 2>that Trump's an election denier. I'm using a double negative, right,

0:14:27.884 --> 0:14:30.924
<v Speaker 2>but not willing to admit that Biden won in twenty twenty.

0:14:33.044 --> 0:14:36.804
<v Speaker 2>Very inexperienced campaigner. He ran one, just run in and

0:14:36.804 --> 0:14:40.524
<v Speaker 2>won just one election in his lifetime. And the decision

0:14:40.604 --> 0:14:43.764
<v Speaker 2>was made apparently after intervention from like the Trump kids,

0:14:45.244 --> 0:14:47.804
<v Speaker 2>and at a time when Trump was writing really high

0:14:47.844 --> 0:14:51.724
<v Speaker 2>in the polls. This is when he'd just been almost assassinated,

0:14:52.164 --> 0:14:55.964
<v Speaker 2>when Joe Biden was still trying to run as a candidate.

0:14:56.004 --> 0:14:57.364
<v Speaker 2>But after the debate, and I think they just thought

0:14:57.364 --> 0:14:59.044
<v Speaker 2>they're going to run away with this and we'll cement

0:14:59.084 --> 0:15:02.044
<v Speaker 2>our legacy. And that was a bad decision too.

0:15:02.924 --> 0:15:08.524
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And I think that we can I agree that

0:15:08.524 --> 0:15:13.084
<v Speaker 1>it was a bad decision for Trump, but I think

0:15:13.124 --> 0:15:16.524
<v Speaker 1>that another kind of element of that good decision, bad

0:15:16.564 --> 0:15:24.044
<v Speaker 1>decision is forceight, right, like being willing to think that, oh,

0:15:24.164 --> 0:15:27.524
<v Speaker 1>Biden might not be the person I'm running against, so

0:15:27.684 --> 0:15:31.924
<v Speaker 1>kind of failure to look ahead, failure to consider the

0:15:31.924 --> 0:15:35.124
<v Speaker 1>possibility that Kamala Harris might actually be the person that

0:15:35.164 --> 0:15:38.164
<v Speaker 1>you're running against. It does seem like the Trump campaign,

0:15:38.164 --> 0:15:40.404
<v Speaker 1>We've talked about this before, really drops the ball on this.

0:15:40.484 --> 0:15:43.404
<v Speaker 1>So that's another bad decision in terms of campaign planning.

0:15:43.564 --> 0:15:44.924
<v Speaker 1>And I don't know if that has to do with,

0:15:45.444 --> 0:15:48.284
<v Speaker 1>you know, over confidence with the people he surrounded himself with.

0:15:48.484 --> 0:15:51.804
<v Speaker 1>I'm not quite sure what was behind that, but it

0:15:51.844 --> 0:15:55.124
<v Speaker 1>does seem like a major oversight in terms of campaign planning.

0:15:55.164 --> 0:15:57.564
<v Speaker 1>And that was another decision point, you know, when he

0:15:57.644 --> 0:16:00.964
<v Speaker 1>picked jd. Vance, it was clear that Biden, you know,

0:16:01.204 --> 0:16:05.124
<v Speaker 1>was not necessarily going to stay the presidential choice for

0:16:05.164 --> 0:16:07.244
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats and Republicans.

0:16:07.284 --> 0:16:08.844
<v Speaker 2>I don't think believe that. I think they thought, well,

0:16:09.004 --> 0:16:13.244
<v Speaker 2>there he's Trump of the Democratic Party, and I think

0:16:13.284 --> 0:16:19.124
<v Speaker 2>Republicans underestimated Democrats desire to win elect the fuck loss

0:16:19.124 --> 0:16:21.564
<v Speaker 2>of shit up right, But like Democrats know how to

0:16:21.564 --> 0:16:24.524
<v Speaker 2>look at polls showing Biden behind in every swing state

0:16:26.124 --> 0:16:30.844
<v Speaker 2>and there's a sizable minority of polling spinners and deniers

0:16:30.884 --> 0:16:34.524
<v Speaker 2>in the party. But cooler heads and stander heads prevailed.

0:16:34.604 --> 0:16:36.044
<v Speaker 2>But you want to go back, let's go way back

0:16:36.084 --> 0:16:42.244
<v Speaker 2>to March twenty twenty three. I think I'm still working

0:16:42.284 --> 0:16:45.804
<v Speaker 2>at ABC News at that point, kind of half acidly

0:16:47.604 --> 0:16:50.444
<v Speaker 2>and uh, because the writing is on the wall, and

0:16:50.484 --> 0:16:53.724
<v Speaker 2>the writing was also on the wall for Joe Biden

0:16:53.764 --> 0:16:59.284
<v Speaker 2>being really fucking old. And to be fair, the times

0:16:59.404 --> 0:17:03.684
<v Speaker 2>when Biden consistently began to trail Trump and head to

0:17:03.724 --> 0:17:07.924
<v Speaker 2>head poles was later in twenty twenty three. By fall

0:17:08.004 --> 0:17:09.964
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three, all these poles from and it's too

0:17:10.004 --> 0:17:12.124
<v Speaker 2>early to look at polls, et cetera, but like these

0:17:12.164 --> 0:17:15.604
<v Speaker 2>poles are coming out showing that Biden is now trailing

0:17:15.644 --> 0:17:18.244
<v Speaker 2>Trump again a year plus and advance doesn't mean that much.

0:17:18.524 --> 0:17:20.804
<v Speaker 2>But also that like depending on pole you look at,

0:17:20.844 --> 0:17:22.924
<v Speaker 2>like eighty percent of Americans say he's too old and

0:17:22.924 --> 0:17:25.364
<v Speaker 2>you have concerns about his ability to like effectively serve out.

0:17:25.804 --> 0:17:28.924
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, how many Americans.

0:17:28.484 --> 0:17:34.044
<v Speaker 2>Eighty seventy eighteen zero seventy's that's a big percent. Kings

0:17:34.324 --> 0:17:36.644
<v Speaker 2>Kings versus Queen's you like to being on the eighties. Yeah,

0:17:36.764 --> 0:17:40.764
<v Speaker 2>you know, that's pretty good. But Biden decided that he

0:17:40.844 --> 0:17:43.444
<v Speaker 2>was going to hit a two outer and decided that

0:17:43.484 --> 0:17:45.204
<v Speaker 2>he was going to run for election again. But in

0:17:45.284 --> 0:17:51.364
<v Speaker 2>March twenty twenty three, Democrats eased his path by announcing

0:17:51.364 --> 0:17:57.364
<v Speaker 2>there would be no primary debates. I'm sure envisioning, you know,

0:17:57.444 --> 0:18:00.924
<v Speaker 2>Mary and Williamson and Biden and a circus or whatever

0:18:00.964 --> 0:18:04.604
<v Speaker 2>that would have been. So, I know, good decision or

0:18:04.604 --> 0:18:05.604
<v Speaker 2>bad decision.

0:18:05.684 --> 0:18:08.284
<v Speaker 1>Horrible decision. I think this was probably one of the

0:18:08.324 --> 0:18:11.084
<v Speaker 1>worst decisions they could have made. If we had had

0:18:11.164 --> 0:18:14.684
<v Speaker 1>primary debates. I think that a lot of Biden's weaknesses

0:18:14.764 --> 0:18:18.324
<v Speaker 1>would have come out immediately, right we wouldn't have had

0:18:18.484 --> 0:18:21.924
<v Speaker 1>to wait until his debate with Trump. And by the way,

0:18:22.084 --> 0:18:24.924
<v Speaker 1>Democrats absolutely knew this, which is why there were no

0:18:25.044 --> 0:18:31.044
<v Speaker 1>primary debates, right like they already I think maybe they

0:18:31.044 --> 0:18:32.524
<v Speaker 1>didn't know it was going to be such a disaster,

0:18:32.604 --> 0:18:34.444
<v Speaker 1>but I think they knew that he wasn't going to

0:18:34.484 --> 0:18:37.804
<v Speaker 1>hold his own in all in all respects. I mean,

0:18:37.804 --> 0:18:40.724
<v Speaker 1>he was already not doing much media, like, I don't

0:18:40.764 --> 0:18:42.564
<v Speaker 1>know you're going to push back. You don't think that

0:18:42.604 --> 0:18:45.004
<v Speaker 1>they knew that he was gonna not be a good debater.

0:18:46.844 --> 0:18:50.644
<v Speaker 2>I think first of all, Democrats, whatever they're doing behind

0:18:50.644 --> 0:18:53.964
<v Speaker 2>the scenes, managed to convince that there was no credible

0:18:54.724 --> 0:18:58.004
<v Speaker 2>opposition to Biden. Mary and Williamson. I actually went throughte

0:18:58.484 --> 0:19:01.724
<v Speaker 2>no offense to Mary and Williamson and Dean Phillips, but

0:19:01.964 --> 0:19:04.844
<v Speaker 2>xxx there wasn't a serious primary, and he both responded

0:19:04.844 --> 0:19:07.484
<v Speaker 2>Dean Phillips like, ah, no offense taken, and Mary on

0:19:07.484 --> 0:19:11.404
<v Speaker 2>Williams it's like, I do take fam, I'm a serious

0:19:11.484 --> 0:19:15.004
<v Speaker 2>candidate for president. She's like a mid Atlantic act. It's

0:19:15.004 --> 0:19:17.924
<v Speaker 2>like newscast. I can't. I don't know in never mind,

0:19:17.964 --> 0:19:21.244
<v Speaker 2>I'm not trying to do that those but like, yeah,

0:19:21.284 --> 0:19:23.444
<v Speaker 2>I think to have Biden up on stage with the

0:19:23.444 --> 0:19:26.364
<v Speaker 2>Maryam Williamson wouldn't have accomplished very much. And Democrats kind

0:19:26.364 --> 0:19:28.724
<v Speaker 2>of live in fear of they confuse cause and effect.

0:19:28.724 --> 0:19:30.804
<v Speaker 2>It's what happened generally speaking, what happens that when you

0:19:30.804 --> 0:19:34.004
<v Speaker 2>have a primary challenge, that party loses. The reason why

0:19:34.044 --> 0:19:35.364
<v Speaker 2>it is the only time you have a primary challenge

0:19:35.404 --> 0:19:37.564
<v Speaker 2>is when a candidate is going to lose anyway, so

0:19:37.644 --> 0:19:40.164
<v Speaker 2>he's vulnerable and and you're trying to get voters under alternatives,

0:19:40.164 --> 0:19:44.324
<v Speaker 2>So you're confusing cause and effect there. And look, Democrats,

0:19:44.324 --> 0:19:47.524
<v Speaker 2>I mean the rumors before twenty twenty two, Carolyn Maloney,

0:19:47.564 --> 0:19:51.524
<v Speaker 2>my former congresswoman, went out and said, oh yeah, everyone

0:19:51.564 --> 0:19:53.444
<v Speaker 2>knows Biden's going to retire. He's a one term president.

0:19:53.484 --> 0:19:55.764
<v Speaker 2>And then I think the reporting on this is still

0:19:55.804 --> 0:20:00.164
<v Speaker 2>not entirely clear on whether Biden was leaning toward retirement

0:20:00.324 --> 0:20:02.124
<v Speaker 2>and then changed his mind, or if he had never

0:20:02.164 --> 0:20:05.004
<v Speaker 2>announced any plans, or if it's like, fuck these people,

0:20:05.364 --> 0:20:07.284
<v Speaker 2>you know, they can't make me retire. I'm the president

0:20:07.324 --> 0:20:10.924
<v Speaker 2>of the United States. And then but but anyway, Democrats

0:20:10.924 --> 0:20:14.164
<v Speaker 2>had had this relatively good mid term and made a decision,

0:20:14.204 --> 0:20:16.564
<v Speaker 2>we want to clean our hands of anything that could

0:20:16.764 --> 0:20:21.804
<v Speaker 2>muck up this coronation. I mean, they thought, you go

0:20:21.884 --> 0:20:25.364
<v Speaker 2>back and look at this, right, they thought, oh my god,

0:20:25.404 --> 0:20:27.884
<v Speaker 2>we're gonna get another Biden Trump rematch, and we won

0:20:27.964 --> 0:20:31.364
<v Speaker 2>that last time. So this is awesome. This is great.

0:20:31.444 --> 0:20:35.124
<v Speaker 2>And then after a nine percent inflation and eighty one

0:20:35.444 --> 0:20:42.404
<v Speaker 2>years old and some major increase in illegal undocumented if

0:20:42.404 --> 0:20:46.364
<v Speaker 2>you prefer immigration across the Mexican border, that's a pretty

0:20:46.404 --> 0:20:50.644
<v Speaker 2>tough electoral environment and you probably need a stronger candidate.

0:20:50.724 --> 0:20:53.364
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I agree with you that. Like, if we look

0:20:53.444 --> 0:20:58.804
<v Speaker 1>back on any one decision, Biden's decision not to retire

0:20:58.924 --> 0:21:01.124
<v Speaker 1>and say, you know, I'm not seeking a second term

0:21:01.404 --> 0:21:06.524
<v Speaker 1>is probably the single most pivotal decision of this whole campaign,

0:21:07.884 --> 0:21:13.684
<v Speaker 1>something that let's dovetail that with the debate decisions. So

0:21:13.764 --> 0:21:18.404
<v Speaker 1>the timing of the debates and that first debate, you

0:21:18.444 --> 0:21:23.204
<v Speaker 1>know that I watched in fetal position between President Biden

0:21:23.324 --> 0:21:28.004
<v Speaker 1>and Donald Trump, where that was kind of the beginning

0:21:28.084 --> 0:21:31.004
<v Speaker 1>of the end if we look at it that way.

0:21:31.204 --> 0:21:34.484
<v Speaker 1>So changing the debate schedule and having that debate when

0:21:34.524 --> 0:21:39.084
<v Speaker 1>it happened, I would say, you know, it was probably

0:21:39.524 --> 0:21:42.484
<v Speaker 1>a good decision for the campaign because it actually forced

0:21:42.484 --> 0:21:46.324
<v Speaker 1>their hand. But let's talk about that a little bit.

0:21:46.724 --> 0:21:49.564
<v Speaker 2>It's like when you think you're bluffing and your opponent

0:21:49.604 --> 0:21:51.284
<v Speaker 2>calls you with the worst hand. It turns out it

0:21:51.324 --> 0:21:57.804
<v Speaker 2>was a value. But so look, the reporting is still

0:21:58.644 --> 0:22:01.284
<v Speaker 2>when Biden made that move, or his campaign made that move,

0:22:01.364 --> 0:22:03.884
<v Speaker 2>I kind of wrote, like, you know, the one nice

0:22:03.884 --> 0:22:05.764
<v Speaker 2>thing this touch Democrats is that if Biden is so

0:22:05.844 --> 0:22:08.284
<v Speaker 2>bad he has to drop out, then finally you have

0:22:08.364 --> 0:22:10.924
<v Speaker 2>some option value to get rid of him. I don't

0:22:10.964 --> 0:22:14.684
<v Speaker 2>tend to think that his team was doing that on purpose.

0:22:14.764 --> 0:22:16.324
<v Speaker 2>I think they just were like, we have to try something.

0:22:16.324 --> 0:22:17.884
<v Speaker 2>We've been behind the polls from months, and the media

0:22:17.924 --> 0:22:20.804
<v Speaker 2>narrative is not changing. I mean, if there is reporting

0:22:21.684 --> 0:22:23.924
<v Speaker 2>post facto, if Maggie Haberman writes a book or something

0:22:23.964 --> 0:22:26.684
<v Speaker 2>that says, actually, someone in the Biden office was trying

0:22:26.684 --> 0:22:28.124
<v Speaker 2>to get him out and this is their secret plan.

0:22:28.164 --> 0:22:30.164
<v Speaker 2>Because but I don't think there's been any reporting on that.

0:22:31.484 --> 0:22:34.484
<v Speaker 2>So it's a decision that I guess worked out well.

0:22:34.564 --> 0:22:36.764
<v Speaker 2>I mean, Democrats do have this almost fifty to fifty

0:22:36.844 --> 0:22:38.724
<v Speaker 2>chance with Harris they wouldn't have had with Biden. I

0:22:38.724 --> 0:22:41.724
<v Speaker 2>think we'd be talking about, like, you know, hey, can

0:22:41.764 --> 0:22:46.964
<v Speaker 2>five percent chances happen and things like that. Right, However,

0:22:47.004 --> 0:22:49.924
<v Speaker 2>there's another hidden consequence to Harris, which is that so

0:22:50.044 --> 0:22:53.564
<v Speaker 2>Biden didn't just ask for an early debate, he also

0:22:53.684 --> 0:22:56.844
<v Speaker 2>blew up the three debates that had originally been scheduled

0:22:56.844 --> 0:23:00.524
<v Speaker 2>for the counts by the Commission on Presidential Debates. I

0:23:00.644 --> 0:23:03.484
<v Speaker 2>believe we're in October. Maybe one was in late September

0:23:03.484 --> 0:23:05.844
<v Speaker 2>and then two in October. I don't remember exactly, but

0:23:05.924 --> 0:23:09.364
<v Speaker 2>the normal timing of the campaign. So you went from

0:23:09.524 --> 0:23:13.564
<v Speaker 2>having three debates to two, one of which was taken

0:23:13.644 --> 0:23:17.364
<v Speaker 2>up by Biden. And so no Harris, in one of

0:23:17.364 --> 0:23:20.764
<v Speaker 2>her strongest formats, only has one debate. I mean, Harris's

0:23:20.764 --> 0:23:22.604
<v Speaker 2>best polling period of the whole campaign was after that

0:23:22.684 --> 0:23:26.844
<v Speaker 2>first debate and her honeymoon period. But like the first

0:23:26.884 --> 0:23:30.204
<v Speaker 2>and only debate and like lost any leverage to claim

0:23:30.204 --> 0:23:31.764
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I mean, once you blew up the calendar,

0:23:31.884 --> 0:23:34.324
<v Speaker 2>then you can't really make hay of the fact that,

0:23:34.404 --> 0:23:37.164
<v Speaker 2>like Trump is also very unreliable and he didn't go

0:23:37.164 --> 0:23:39.364
<v Speaker 2>to the GP primary debates. He had lots of gripes

0:23:39.404 --> 0:23:42.244
<v Speaker 2>with a Commission on Presidential Debates last cycle, he might

0:23:42.284 --> 0:23:45.444
<v Speaker 2>have been very strategic and not cared about like the

0:23:45.484 --> 0:23:47.844
<v Speaker 2>reputational risk from looking like you're ducking a debate. But

0:23:47.964 --> 0:23:50.364
<v Speaker 2>like if Kambal Harris had another debate last week, I

0:23:50.404 --> 0:23:53.444
<v Speaker 2>think this might have been a meaningfully different race. And

0:23:53.484 --> 0:23:55.604
<v Speaker 2>the fucking Biden people fucked that up.

0:23:56.164 --> 0:24:02.124
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, that's just I don't know, I don't know, Okay,

0:24:01.924 --> 0:24:04.924
<v Speaker 1>So let's sum this up. Obviously, there are lots of

0:24:04.964 --> 0:24:07.884
<v Speaker 1>moving parts to this debate decision, but let's come to

0:24:08.004 --> 0:24:12.404
<v Speaker 1>a net assessment. Nate, what do you think in terms

0:24:12.484 --> 0:24:15.724
<v Speaker 1>of kind of the the end result the decision of

0:24:15.764 --> 0:24:19.204
<v Speaker 1>the Biden campaign to rearrange the debate schedule. Have that

0:24:19.284 --> 0:24:22.684
<v Speaker 1>one earlier debate, you know, blow ups of the later

0:24:22.764 --> 0:24:26.604
<v Speaker 1>debates net positive net negative. Good decision, bad decision?

0:24:27.364 --> 0:24:30.124
<v Speaker 2>Are we focusing on process or not? Or results?

0:24:30.204 --> 0:24:32.284
<v Speaker 1>Maria working on process?

0:24:32.324 --> 0:24:34.364
<v Speaker 2>Don't we tellt people? Then it was a terrible decision

0:24:35.004 --> 0:24:36.604
<v Speaker 2>because if they actually thought that was going to make

0:24:36.644 --> 0:24:38.284
<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden look good and the stupidt fucking people in

0:24:38.324 --> 0:24:40.844
<v Speaker 2>the history of the world, well not just the politics.

0:24:41.284 --> 0:24:43.164
<v Speaker 1>Now, I think we have to focus on process. And

0:24:43.204 --> 0:24:46.124
<v Speaker 1>we're taping this Tuesday, October twenty ninth. We don't know,

0:24:46.244 --> 0:24:49.364
<v Speaker 1>right we cannot be outcome oriented right now. We know

0:24:49.444 --> 0:24:52.204
<v Speaker 1>that what happened in terms of the Biden campaign, but

0:24:52.324 --> 0:24:54.924
<v Speaker 1>we don't know what that means for the election.

0:24:55.084 --> 0:24:58.324
<v Speaker 2>We do know that they improved terros gives Democrats, to

0:24:58.324 --> 0:25:02.604
<v Speaker 2>my estimation, double the chances roughly are more than that, right,

0:25:02.644 --> 0:25:04.644
<v Speaker 2>So like, so that part of the decision worked out

0:25:05.084 --> 0:25:06.844
<v Speaker 2>well for them. I guess if she loses by less

0:25:06.884 --> 0:25:11.124
<v Speaker 2>than nobody really cares, I suppose. But so in a

0:25:11.164 --> 0:25:13.284
<v Speaker 2>poker tournament where second place gets like eighty percent of

0:25:13.764 --> 0:25:15.924
<v Speaker 2>first place money or something, right, it could be president

0:25:17.044 --> 0:25:21.684
<v Speaker 2>time you alternate round up to like it's a landslike

0:25:21.684 --> 0:25:23.964
<v Speaker 2>it and be like five days Tuesday, So HAIs be

0:25:24.004 --> 0:25:27.604
<v Speaker 2>president Tuesdays Wednesdays, and I think Trump likes to play

0:25:27.724 --> 0:25:30.684
<v Speaker 2>golf on Saturday, so let's give Harris Saturday too.

0:25:31.804 --> 0:25:33.364
<v Speaker 1>I love it. I love it. But yeah, now, I

0:25:33.364 --> 0:25:35.724
<v Speaker 1>think we do have to focus on process rather than outcome,

0:25:35.764 --> 0:25:39.604
<v Speaker 1>because as poker players, as people who talk about decision making,

0:25:39.604 --> 0:25:41.884
<v Speaker 1>that's the only way that you can that you can

0:25:42.564 --> 0:25:45.684
<v Speaker 1>actually evaluate the decision quality. And in a case like this,

0:25:45.804 --> 0:25:49.084
<v Speaker 1>where there are so many moving parts, I think that

0:25:49.084 --> 0:25:51.284
<v Speaker 1>that that it has to be the swinging net and

0:25:51.284 --> 0:25:53.204
<v Speaker 1>determination bad process.

0:25:54.724 --> 0:25:56.804
<v Speaker 2>And we'll be right back after this break.

0:26:14.284 --> 0:26:18.044
<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about that moment when Biden drops out

0:26:18.324 --> 0:26:21.564
<v Speaker 1>and Harris very very quickly becomes the presumptive not money.

0:26:21.804 --> 0:26:24.164
<v Speaker 1>I know that at that point night you were talking

0:26:24.164 --> 0:26:26.764
<v Speaker 1>about potentially doing kind of this mini primary. That's not

0:26:26.804 --> 0:26:30.444
<v Speaker 1>what happened. So let's talk about that decision to go

0:26:30.604 --> 0:26:32.524
<v Speaker 1>straight from Biden to Harris.

0:26:32.764 --> 0:26:37.164
<v Speaker 2>I advocated at the time for having a mini primary,

0:26:37.284 --> 0:26:39.604
<v Speaker 2>and some other Democrats did that as well. I think

0:26:39.644 --> 0:26:43.764
<v Speaker 2>in retrospect that was naive. Maybe not because it has

0:26:43.804 --> 0:26:47.724
<v Speaker 2>been a baddie in theory, but like in practice, you

0:26:47.804 --> 0:26:54.044
<v Speaker 2>have the vice president in a party that doesn't particularly

0:26:54.084 --> 0:26:59.604
<v Speaker 2>like nominating white men, she did a very good job

0:26:59.644 --> 0:27:02.364
<v Speaker 2>by all accounts, of understanding that Biden was in trouble

0:27:02.404 --> 0:27:05.884
<v Speaker 2>and consolidating her support and you know, having her chips

0:27:05.884 --> 0:27:08.364
<v Speaker 2>ready to cash in the minute of the cashier's window open,

0:27:08.364 --> 0:27:10.404
<v Speaker 2>maybe a few minutes beforehand. Maybe she was she was

0:27:10.964 --> 0:27:13.284
<v Speaker 2>first on the elevator to the to the to the

0:27:13.324 --> 0:27:16.204
<v Speaker 2>win cashier before even checking out of her hotel room.

0:27:16.244 --> 0:27:19.444
<v Speaker 2>Maybe inkling is something, and so you kind of have,

0:27:19.644 --> 0:27:23.404
<v Speaker 2>you know, so if you have the following options, right,

0:27:24.364 --> 0:27:30.764
<v Speaker 2>Harris wins in thirty six hours, or you have everyone

0:27:30.804 --> 0:27:34.004
<v Speaker 2>agrees that we should have this primary process, or you

0:27:34.084 --> 0:27:37.484
<v Speaker 2>have you have a week's long fight and then Harris wins. Anyway,

0:27:37.524 --> 0:27:39.084
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think we can agree that, like the

0:27:39.124 --> 0:27:41.164
<v Speaker 2>third decision is the worst decision, and maybe the second

0:27:41.164 --> 0:27:43.724
<v Speaker 2>decision wasn't possible, therefore you get the first decision. But

0:27:43.804 --> 0:27:49.324
<v Speaker 2>again that the timing matters here. Even a few earlier

0:27:49.364 --> 0:27:52.604
<v Speaker 2>weeks of a Biden announcement might have given things people

0:27:52.604 --> 0:27:55.564
<v Speaker 2>a few more options. So I mean, this one I'm

0:27:55.804 --> 0:27:59.244
<v Speaker 2>more forgiving of. But again it comes back to Biden

0:28:00.444 --> 0:28:02.404
<v Speaker 2>should have left the race earlier, and at first of

0:28:02.444 --> 0:28:04.324
<v Speaker 2>you as well, she doesn't really have to go through

0:28:04.484 --> 0:28:07.164
<v Speaker 2>like a normal campaign, and maybe that's helpful. She won't

0:28:07.164 --> 0:28:10.324
<v Speaker 2>get enough scrutiny. July August, four and a half months

0:28:10.444 --> 0:28:15.084
<v Speaker 2>is plenty enough time for scrutiny. And her campaign kind

0:28:15.084 --> 0:28:16.524
<v Speaker 2>of ran on this premise that we can just kind

0:28:16.524 --> 0:28:18.844
<v Speaker 2>of run off the fumes of brat summer and like

0:28:20.284 --> 0:28:22.444
<v Speaker 2>and didn't find a second gear, and like again, like

0:28:22.564 --> 0:28:25.324
<v Speaker 2>the problem is, like all these fucking things are like foreseeable,

0:28:25.404 --> 0:28:28.164
<v Speaker 2>Like all these things I've like criticized in real time

0:28:28.324 --> 0:28:31.364
<v Speaker 2>and they worked out badly, and like and like you

0:28:31.404 --> 0:28:35.484
<v Speaker 2>know that she needs second gear. People gonna ask, what's

0:28:35.524 --> 0:28:37.924
<v Speaker 2>the issue? Why are you know you want change? But

0:28:37.964 --> 0:28:40.684
<v Speaker 2>you're the incumbent vice president? Like how's that work? Harris?

0:28:40.684 --> 0:28:42.564
<v Speaker 2>And like the fact that she goes on interviews and

0:28:42.604 --> 0:28:44.964
<v Speaker 2>gets asked, what's one thing you do differently than Joe Biden?

0:28:45.004 --> 0:28:47.124
<v Speaker 2>And she can't asker that fucking question, Like what the

0:28:47.164 --> 0:28:47.884
<v Speaker 2>fuck is going on?

0:28:48.564 --> 0:28:50.084
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:28:50.244 --> 0:28:54.524
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And people thought she'd be a C minus candiate

0:28:54.604 --> 0:28:56.804
<v Speaker 2>and she's been a B minus. Right, she might win

0:28:56.924 --> 0:28:59.644
<v Speaker 2>because Trump is unpopular, She'll probably have a good ground game.

0:29:00.164 --> 0:29:03.844
<v Speaker 2>Trump steps in his own shit a lot, right, But

0:29:03.924 --> 0:29:06.684
<v Speaker 2>I think you cannot like quote unquote objectively say that

0:29:06.764 --> 0:29:12.124
<v Speaker 2>she's like run a great campaign, you know, maybe a

0:29:12.164 --> 0:29:14.564
<v Speaker 2>B can eight and D campaign that averages out to

0:29:14.604 --> 0:29:16.884
<v Speaker 2>see and people, though should be worse than that. I mean,

0:29:17.044 --> 0:29:20.284
<v Speaker 2>I mean, luckily for Democrats, she certainly has improved, Like

0:29:20.364 --> 0:29:25.324
<v Speaker 2>her public speaking in like teleprompter settings, right, she was

0:29:25.404 --> 0:29:29.444
<v Speaker 2>She's a very good debater, so she has some attributes

0:29:29.484 --> 0:29:32.684
<v Speaker 2>and she and she you know, United Democrats around her.

0:29:32.684 --> 0:29:35.244
<v Speaker 2>So she's done some good things. Her convention speech was good.

0:29:36.684 --> 0:29:38.884
<v Speaker 2>But the things that are less about the candidate and

0:29:38.964 --> 0:29:41.964
<v Speaker 2>more about the campaign, and the fact that the campaign

0:29:42.084 --> 0:29:45.644
<v Speaker 2>is not prepping the candidate for that question, I just

0:29:45.764 --> 0:29:46.964
<v Speaker 2>I don't understand it.

0:29:47.844 --> 0:29:50.564
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, no, I think I think those are all valid points.

0:29:50.644 --> 0:29:52.964
<v Speaker 1>And who knows, there's still a week left. Maybe all

0:29:52.964 --> 0:29:55.844
<v Speaker 1>of a sudden we'll get clear answers, uh and and

0:29:55.884 --> 0:29:58.684
<v Speaker 1>some issues. But what about you know, we're talking a

0:29:58.724 --> 0:30:01.324
<v Speaker 1>lot about the democratic decisions, and we've talked about JD. Vance,

0:30:01.364 --> 0:30:04.044
<v Speaker 1>But what about the decision to nominate Trump? Again, Like,

0:30:04.124 --> 0:30:06.644
<v Speaker 1>what what do we think about that? Obviously we do

0:30:06.724 --> 0:30:08.764
<v Speaker 1>not know the results of the race, but you know

0:30:08.804 --> 0:30:13.604
<v Speaker 1>you just mentioned and his popularity. Good decision, bad decision there?

0:30:14.164 --> 0:30:16.644
<v Speaker 1>You know, there were other choices, And I think the

0:30:16.684 --> 0:30:21.564
<v Speaker 1>Republican Party made a very conscious decision that you know,

0:30:21.604 --> 0:30:24.524
<v Speaker 1>they were going to kind of go into the Trump direction,

0:30:24.644 --> 0:30:27.124
<v Speaker 1>the Trump camp, that they were going to be kind

0:30:27.124 --> 0:30:30.124
<v Speaker 1>of the Party of Trump instead of any number of

0:30:30.124 --> 0:30:34.044
<v Speaker 1>directions that that could have happened at that stage, especially

0:30:34.124 --> 0:30:37.844
<v Speaker 1>since he had lost the last election. So what do

0:30:37.884 --> 0:30:39.284
<v Speaker 1>we think about that and what do we think about

0:30:39.284 --> 0:30:41.884
<v Speaker 1>that decision process. That's something that is not talked about

0:30:41.924 --> 0:30:42.644
<v Speaker 1>nearly as much.

0:30:43.124 --> 0:30:45.404
<v Speaker 2>That's because it wasn't a decision. It was the voter's decision.

0:30:45.924 --> 0:30:48.284
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, the one thing Republicans could have done

0:30:48.404 --> 0:30:54.804
<v Speaker 2>is that when Trump was impeached, they could have voted

0:30:54.844 --> 0:30:56.684
<v Speaker 2>to convict him in the Senate, in which case he

0:30:56.724 --> 0:30:59.164
<v Speaker 2>would not be eligible. You need a two thirds majorities,

0:30:59.204 --> 0:31:00.644
<v Speaker 2>you have to have a lot of Republicans come on board,

0:31:00.644 --> 0:31:03.244
<v Speaker 2>in which case he is not constitutionally eligible to be

0:31:03.284 --> 0:31:08.684
<v Speaker 2>president ever again. So that's a point at which they

0:31:08.684 --> 0:31:14.524
<v Speaker 2>could have. But like everyone ran, Mike Pence Ran, the

0:31:14.524 --> 0:31:16.724
<v Speaker 2>then popular governor of Florida run. His said, is ran,

0:31:17.524 --> 0:31:19.484
<v Speaker 2>Nikki Aleey the only half decent candidate in the bunch?

0:31:19.524 --> 0:31:24.684
<v Speaker 2>Frankly ran. It's a star studded field by objective metrics

0:31:24.684 --> 0:31:27.244
<v Speaker 2>and like, and the voters overwhelmingly picked Trump. I mean,

0:31:27.564 --> 0:31:32.364
<v Speaker 2>what Nickie win should win Vermont. There's something DC which

0:31:32.364 --> 0:31:33.844
<v Speaker 2>is better than I thought the over under it was

0:31:33.844 --> 0:31:38.604
<v Speaker 2>probably zero and a half states. So I I mean,

0:31:39.804 --> 0:31:41.884
<v Speaker 2>would they be off with a more normal candidate? I

0:31:41.964 --> 0:31:44.444
<v Speaker 2>mean yes, on the one hand, I mean when you

0:31:44.484 --> 0:31:48.044
<v Speaker 2>had Hailey versus Biden polls, Hailey and the more quality

0:31:48.044 --> 0:31:51.044
<v Speaker 2>polls was doing significantly better than Trump. At the same time,

0:31:51.084 --> 0:31:53.604
<v Speaker 2>it's a little bit like if a if a dog

0:31:53.684 --> 0:31:55.564
<v Speaker 2>had wings that could fly. I mean it's like kind

0:31:55.564 --> 0:31:59.924
<v Speaker 2>of like the Republican Party of today is not capable

0:32:00.604 --> 0:32:04.964
<v Speaker 2>of not nominating Trump if Trump is on the ballot.

0:32:05.724 --> 0:32:09.084
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it just wasn't even close in any of

0:32:09.084 --> 0:32:10.364
<v Speaker 2>these things. It's by the way, nobody trying. And you

0:32:10.364 --> 0:32:13.964
<v Speaker 2>could blame like Ron DeSantis for like being oh cozy

0:32:14.004 --> 0:32:15.764
<v Speaker 2>up to Trump and not saying bad things about it,

0:32:15.764 --> 0:32:19.404
<v Speaker 2>and then magically something happens and I win. I mean,

0:32:19.444 --> 0:32:23.924
<v Speaker 2>he has an aged well his strategy, but like it

0:32:24.044 --> 0:32:25.404
<v Speaker 2>just what, it's what the voters decided.

0:32:26.284 --> 0:32:29.484
<v Speaker 1>No, I I right, obviously, I was just kind of

0:32:29.524 --> 0:32:33.284
<v Speaker 1>talking about earlier kind of rallying around Trump and like

0:32:33.324 --> 0:32:36.004
<v Speaker 1>deciding that this was, you know, this was the way

0:32:36.004 --> 0:32:38.564
<v Speaker 1>to go, rather than kind of trying to distance themselves

0:32:38.644 --> 0:32:42.164
<v Speaker 1>from Trump way back when after January sixth, after you know,

0:32:42.364 --> 0:32:44.684
<v Speaker 1>or even you know, the impeachment, as you said, like,

0:32:44.724 --> 0:32:47.364
<v Speaker 1>there were points in time where I think the party

0:32:47.364 --> 0:32:50.484
<v Speaker 1>could have made different decisions in to not And we'll

0:32:50.484 --> 0:32:52.124
<v Speaker 1>see how that turns out. But I think that that

0:32:52.284 --> 0:32:56.084
<v Speaker 1>is that does say something. So I think where we

0:32:56.284 --> 0:32:58.924
<v Speaker 1>come out on this is that it's complicated. Right, As

0:32:58.964 --> 0:33:01.444
<v Speaker 1>with everything, there are lots of good and bad decisions.

0:33:01.484 --> 0:33:04.644
<v Speaker 1>But if Kamala Harris loses the election next week, I

0:33:04.644 --> 0:33:08.364
<v Speaker 1>think we've crowned the single worst decision. This will be

0:33:08.444 --> 0:33:13.524
<v Speaker 1>squarely on President Biden's shoulders for not deciding to step

0:33:13.684 --> 0:33:16.924
<v Speaker 1>away from the race and say that he was not

0:33:17.004 --> 0:33:19.044
<v Speaker 1>going to be running for a second term. Do you

0:33:19.044 --> 0:33:19.604
<v Speaker 1>agree with that?

0:33:20.884 --> 0:33:26.244
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, That's the core fact of his campaign.

0:33:26.524 --> 0:33:29.924
<v Speaker 2>And you know, it's not as though people thought Harros

0:33:30.004 --> 0:33:31.444
<v Speaker 2>was a great candidate before and look, they did make

0:33:31.484 --> 0:33:34.084
<v Speaker 2>that decision, right right. I mean, so Biden running was

0:33:34.124 --> 0:33:35.804
<v Speaker 2>the worst decision. Replacing him was the best decision by

0:33:35.804 --> 0:33:40.164
<v Speaker 2>either party in the campaign. Trump's worst decision, I guess

0:33:40.244 --> 0:33:43.524
<v Speaker 2>JD Van Actually maybe maybe the campaign the convention speech

0:33:43.564 --> 0:33:46.484
<v Speaker 2>where he had just gotten assassinated in the first half

0:33:46.484 --> 0:33:52.004
<v Speaker 2>an hour of the convention different a softer side of Trump,

0:33:52.404 --> 0:33:58.724
<v Speaker 2>and then he just rambles for an hour, right, you know.

0:33:59.004 --> 0:34:01.484
<v Speaker 2>I you know, he wasn't very prep for the debate

0:34:01.524 --> 0:34:05.884
<v Speaker 2>with Harris. Maybe he shouldn't have accepted this early debate

0:34:05.924 --> 0:34:08.164
<v Speaker 2>from Biden because that gave Biden a chance to skate

0:34:08.244 --> 0:34:10.884
<v Speaker 2>free her Democrats chance to skate free from Biden. So

0:34:10.924 --> 0:34:14.444
<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's it's not a campaign where you

0:34:14.484 --> 0:34:18.204
<v Speaker 2>would go and give everyone high marks.

0:34:18.484 --> 0:34:21.804
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. So I think that with the Harris campaign, with

0:34:21.804 --> 0:34:24.924
<v Speaker 1>the Democratic Party, we have one clear absolute worst decision

0:34:25.204 --> 0:34:28.004
<v Speaker 1>and one clear best decision. With a Trump campaign, we

0:34:28.084 --> 0:34:31.004
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of bad decisions, but unclear which one is,

0:34:31.044 --> 0:34:33.724
<v Speaker 1>like the worst decision. They didn't do anything as a

0:34:33.924 --> 0:34:38.564
<v Speaker 1>gregious as the Democratic camp when it came to you know,

0:34:38.604 --> 0:34:41.404
<v Speaker 1>when it came to the Biden decision. But let's see

0:34:41.404 --> 0:34:42.844
<v Speaker 1>what happens. Let's see what happens.

0:34:43.484 --> 0:34:46.484
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we can brow there. It's still approximately fifty to fifty.

0:34:46.284 --> 0:34:49.324
<v Speaker 1>Race and it's still yep, it's still approximately fifty to fifty.

0:34:49.444 --> 0:34:52.204
<v Speaker 1>So after the break night. Let's uh, let's talk quickly

0:34:52.204 --> 0:34:53.244
<v Speaker 1>about the model quick.

0:34:53.044 --> 0:34:56.484
<v Speaker 2>Break and then a quickie little model horse race segment.

0:35:14.444 --> 0:35:17.764
<v Speaker 1>All right, one week to go, Nate, What are the

0:35:17.804 --> 0:35:21.244
<v Speaker 1>models saying? I know we're fifty to fifty, but are

0:35:21.284 --> 0:35:24.084
<v Speaker 1>you seeing movement? Are you seeing any anything important? Kind

0:35:24.084 --> 0:35:26.164
<v Speaker 1>of where where are we and what's happening?

0:35:27.324 --> 0:35:30.244
<v Speaker 2>Valleatest numbers Tamala Harris.

0:35:32.444 --> 0:35:34.764
<v Speaker 1>Every time you need, you need to get a new

0:35:34.844 --> 0:35:35.324
<v Speaker 1>voice going.

0:35:35.364 --> 0:35:39.964
<v Speaker 2>I love Kamala Harris has a forty five point three

0:35:40.244 --> 0:35:42.964
<v Speaker 2>percent chance of winning the electoral college.

0:35:43.204 --> 0:35:45.564
<v Speaker 1>Are you trying to be the AI version of yourself?

0:35:45.964 --> 0:35:48.444
<v Speaker 2>You see, you have these automated we're dating ourselves as

0:35:48.444 --> 0:35:53.604
<v Speaker 2>automated and a seventy one point four percent probability of

0:35:53.644 --> 0:35:57.724
<v Speaker 2>winning the popular vote. It's basically fifty five forty five

0:35:58.404 --> 0:36:00.884
<v Speaker 2>Trump or fifty four forty five with a small chance

0:36:00.924 --> 0:36:05.284
<v Speaker 2>of a tie. Um, it's been a little weird. I mean, look,

0:36:06.604 --> 0:36:10.964
<v Speaker 2>it's gradually drifted to Trump over actually a fairly long

0:36:11.004 --> 0:36:13.284
<v Speaker 2>period now. And you know, two and every three days

0:36:13.284 --> 0:36:16.884
<v Speaker 2>Harris has lost ground on the forecast since since roughly

0:36:17.004 --> 0:36:21.484
<v Speaker 2>early October. You know, it looks like you could stabilize

0:36:22.124 --> 0:36:23.764
<v Speaker 2>a bit. Maybe I don't think we're gonna don'tink we're

0:36:23.764 --> 0:36:26.564
<v Speaker 2>gonn gonna learn very much in this last week of

0:36:26.604 --> 0:36:31.364
<v Speaker 2>the polling. In fact, I kind of trust polsters lest this.

0:36:31.444 --> 0:36:33.884
<v Speaker 2>They all every time a polster, Oh, every state is

0:36:34.644 --> 0:36:38.204
<v Speaker 2>is just plus one, every little every single state to tie. No,

0:36:38.284 --> 0:36:41.164
<v Speaker 2>you're fucking hurting, you're cheating, you're cheating. Your demos aren't

0:36:41.164 --> 0:36:43.524
<v Speaker 2>all gonna come out at exactly one point leads when

0:36:43.564 --> 0:36:46.084
<v Speaker 2>you're sampling eight hundred people over dozens of surveys. You

0:36:46.124 --> 0:36:48.204
<v Speaker 2>are lying. You're putting a fucking figure on the scale.

0:36:48.284 --> 0:36:50.324
<v Speaker 2>I will not name names, but some pulsters are really

0:36:50.324 --> 0:36:53.884
<v Speaker 2>bad about this, all these all these gop leaning for

0:36:53.924 --> 0:36:56.644
<v Speaker 2>it's always, oh, we're not going on too far on

0:36:56.644 --> 0:36:58.604
<v Speaker 2>a limb. Trump. It's just Trump plus one in Pennsylvania

0:36:58.604 --> 0:37:01.084
<v Speaker 2>every fucking single time. No, it's how fucking polling works.

0:37:01.844 --> 0:37:05.364
<v Speaker 2>That's not how that's not how polling is supposed to work.

0:37:05.404 --> 0:37:06.204
<v Speaker 2>There's a margin of.

0:37:06.364 --> 0:37:10.404
<v Speaker 1>Tell us how you really feel, so you get.

0:37:10.324 --> 0:37:12.604
<v Speaker 2>Hurting and like everyone just saw well, I mean, basically,

0:37:12.604 --> 0:37:15.604
<v Speaker 2>the posters are fifty to fifty is a forecast, because

0:37:15.604 --> 0:37:17.604
<v Speaker 2>not all base rates are fifty to fifty, right, The

0:37:17.644 --> 0:37:19.764
<v Speaker 2>posters are just fucking punting, except the New York Times,

0:37:19.764 --> 0:37:23.284
<v Speaker 2>it actually has balls, right, The polster's just fucking punting

0:37:23.604 --> 0:37:25.164
<v Speaker 2>on this election for the most part. I mean not

0:37:25.204 --> 0:37:26.804
<v Speaker 2>just the New York Times. There are some of the

0:37:26.804 --> 0:37:30.044
<v Speaker 2>other high quality polls will actually publish numbers that surprise

0:37:30.124 --> 0:37:32.764
<v Speaker 2>you once in a while. If a polster never publishes

0:37:32.764 --> 0:37:35.004
<v Speaker 2>the numbers that surprises you, then it has no value.

0:37:35.164 --> 0:37:37.844
<v Speaker 2>Information that has no potential to be surprising has no value.

0:37:37.884 --> 0:37:40.444
<v Speaker 2>Should already be kind of like priced into your worldview.

0:37:40.524 --> 0:37:43.244
<v Speaker 2>We're kind of priced into like the model in my case,

0:37:43.284 --> 0:37:45.284
<v Speaker 2>the model lab become one in the last week of

0:37:45.284 --> 0:37:51.604
<v Speaker 2>the election. But look, all seven swing states are still

0:37:51.644 --> 0:37:54.484
<v Speaker 2>polling within it looks like a point and half here.

0:37:54.524 --> 0:37:57.684
<v Speaker 2>Maybe Trump's leads up to almost two points in Arizona. Yeah,

0:37:57.724 --> 0:37:59.764
<v Speaker 2>two points in Aeras. So everything's pulling within two points.

0:38:00.844 --> 0:38:02.244
<v Speaker 2>And Hare's got a good poll in Arizona that we

0:38:02.244 --> 0:38:06.924
<v Speaker 2>haven't encounted for yet, right, so within two points. Doesn't

0:38:06.924 --> 0:38:09.364
<v Speaker 2>take a genius to know that if every swing states

0:38:09.524 --> 0:38:14.724
<v Speaker 2>a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie. You know,

0:38:14.804 --> 0:38:16.844
<v Speaker 2>Pennsylvania is at one state though, if you just add

0:38:16.924 --> 0:38:20.964
<v Speaker 2>up the states where where Harris leads then she is

0:38:21.084 --> 0:38:25.004
<v Speaker 2>one state short. She is zero point four points behind

0:38:25.484 --> 0:38:29.444
<v Speaker 2>in Pennsylvania. And guess who is the governor of Pennsylvania.

0:38:29.484 --> 0:38:33.484
<v Speaker 1>Maria start with an s.

0:38:35.164 --> 0:38:40.324
<v Speaker 2>John Fetterman, No, he's a center from Pennsylvania. Uh, Bob

0:38:40.404 --> 0:38:43.484
<v Speaker 2>Casey No. The other say two senators Actually in every

0:38:43.844 --> 0:38:47.364
<v Speaker 2>if the polls are exactly right, then actually, uh, it

0:38:47.404 --> 0:38:49.604
<v Speaker 2>says even in Nevada. So then Nevada is tied. I

0:38:49.644 --> 0:38:52.004
<v Speaker 2>don't know what happens there. They go play roulette. I

0:38:52.004 --> 0:38:56.444
<v Speaker 2>think is the rule of Nevada if it's tied, and uh,

0:38:56.844 --> 0:38:58.684
<v Speaker 2>but Harris would come up one state short, and that

0:38:58.724 --> 0:39:01.884
<v Speaker 2>state's name is Pensylvania. But again, so if you're if

0:39:01.884 --> 0:39:04.204
<v Speaker 2>you really are going over it with like an incredible precision,

0:39:04.244 --> 0:39:05.924
<v Speaker 2>but you don't want to have that precision. Anyone who

0:39:05.964 --> 0:39:09.244
<v Speaker 2>says that they know what's happening is is just is

0:39:09.924 --> 0:39:13.524
<v Speaker 2>they're guessing. And half the fucking pundit industry just kind

0:39:13.564 --> 0:39:15.644
<v Speaker 2>of they've always been on red, been on red or

0:39:15.644 --> 0:39:18.204
<v Speaker 2>been on blue every time, and like and they just

0:39:18.244 --> 0:39:21.964
<v Speaker 2>always make the same fucking debt and rationalize blues lucky. Well,

0:39:22.004 --> 0:39:23.564
<v Speaker 2>you know it's blues turn Now I have blues on

0:39:23.604 --> 0:39:26.524
<v Speaker 2>a Wayne Streak, and half the time they're right, and

0:39:26.524 --> 0:39:28.324
<v Speaker 2>they're like, oh my god, I'm a God's gift to

0:39:28.404 --> 0:39:33.124
<v Speaker 2>fucking election prognostication. Anyway, nobody knows anything.

0:39:33.844 --> 0:39:37.284
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, no, I mean, I'm in Nevada right now, and

0:39:37.324 --> 0:39:39.844
<v Speaker 1>I'm actually you know, looking at the at the updates,

0:39:40.284 --> 0:39:43.764
<v Speaker 1>and the Republicans are ahead in early mail in voting.

0:39:43.804 --> 0:39:46.084
<v Speaker 1>It looks like Clark County, which is supposed to be,

0:39:46.324 --> 0:39:48.084
<v Speaker 1>which is where I live, which is the kind of

0:39:48.124 --> 0:39:52.004
<v Speaker 1>democratic wall. The mail in ballot rates are not good,

0:39:52.884 --> 0:39:55.924
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, and both Trump and Harris are

0:39:55.924 --> 0:40:01.884
<v Speaker 1>coming here on Thursday, so stay inside, don't drive anywhere

0:40:01.884 --> 0:40:02.564
<v Speaker 1>on Thursday.

0:40:02.884 --> 0:40:04.884
<v Speaker 2>Why is that you're at the fucking airport in Vegas?

0:40:05.044 --> 0:40:07.804
<v Speaker 2>Like I love Vegas, but like why because there's lots

0:40:07.804 --> 0:40:09.924
<v Speaker 2>of Campagig events there. Why is the the airport's so

0:40:09.964 --> 0:40:11.324
<v Speaker 2>weird about this ground stop ship?

0:40:11.604 --> 0:40:14.204
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I don't know, but I made the mistake of

0:40:14.244 --> 0:40:16.764
<v Speaker 1>flying out one day when one of the candidates I

0:40:16.764 --> 0:40:19.964
<v Speaker 1>don't remember which was flying in and basically missed my

0:40:20.004 --> 0:40:24.044
<v Speaker 1>flight because there was no going in or out of

0:40:24.044 --> 0:40:26.804
<v Speaker 1>the airports and nothing whatsoever could be done about it.

0:40:27.524 --> 0:40:29.924
<v Speaker 1>So so yeah, so so those are those are always

0:40:29.964 --> 0:40:33.604
<v Speaker 1>fun moments. But yeah, it's it's close, it's it's a

0:40:33.604 --> 0:40:37.644
<v Speaker 1>complete toss up, and I'm I'm glad that you are

0:40:37.924 --> 0:40:41.564
<v Speaker 1>that your model with which you are one agrees with

0:40:41.604 --> 0:40:44.444
<v Speaker 1>that because that's exactly what it feels like here. And

0:40:44.844 --> 0:40:46.564
<v Speaker 1>I did think it was interesting by the way that

0:40:46.604 --> 0:40:49.764
<v Speaker 1>they're both coming here as opposed to one of the

0:40:49.804 --> 0:40:54.284
<v Speaker 1>other battleground states on Thursday. But but I guess that

0:40:54.364 --> 0:40:56.244
<v Speaker 1>goes to show that, yeah, when you're when you're short,

0:40:56.244 --> 0:40:59.564
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to really rally those undecided voters and they

0:40:59.604 --> 0:41:03.604
<v Speaker 1>definitely exist here. But yeah, let's let's see what happens

0:41:04.364 --> 0:41:08.364
<v Speaker 1>next week. We'll actually be doing two episodes, so we'll

0:41:08.404 --> 0:41:11.204
<v Speaker 1>be dropping and episode for you right before the election

0:41:11.404 --> 0:41:15.044
<v Speaker 1>on Monday, so stay tuned. We'll be be doing some

0:41:15.364 --> 0:41:18.604
<v Speaker 1>real time visits to see what's happening with the election.

0:41:19.564 --> 0:41:23.124
<v Speaker 1>But I think I would like to end today, and Nate,

0:41:23.364 --> 0:41:25.204
<v Speaker 1>you can, you can end it however you want, but

0:41:25.244 --> 0:41:28.124
<v Speaker 1>I would like to say, please, please, please, especially if

0:41:28.124 --> 0:41:29.684
<v Speaker 1>you're in a swing state, but everywhere I just go

0:41:29.724 --> 0:41:32.924
<v Speaker 1>out and vote. Please do that. I think that it's

0:41:33.324 --> 0:41:40.044
<v Speaker 1>incredibly important exercise your right to vote. And yeah, that

0:41:40.204 --> 0:41:42.644
<v Speaker 1>I think is a really important message for this week.

0:41:44.284 --> 0:41:46.764
<v Speaker 2>Go out and vote. Don't don't. Don't let more money

0:41:46.764 --> 0:41:48.284
<v Speaker 2>of the campaigns. They can't do anything with it at

0:41:48.284 --> 0:41:50.844
<v Speaker 2>this point. I'm serious, like, yeah, save it for like

0:41:50.924 --> 0:41:55.244
<v Speaker 2>a good cause that that money will do nothing for

0:41:55.324 --> 0:41:57.204
<v Speaker 2>any candidate you're voting for. If you have to donate,

0:41:57.244 --> 0:42:00.284
<v Speaker 2>donate to a local race, right, so vote. I agree

0:42:00.284 --> 0:42:03.684
<v Speaker 2>with that, Maria, But save your money for a good cause,

0:42:04.324 --> 0:42:04.764
<v Speaker 2>all right.

0:42:05.244 --> 0:42:07.724
<v Speaker 1>And on that note, let's see what happens next week.

0:42:13.684 --> 0:42:15.804
<v Speaker 1>Let us know what you think of the show. Reach

0:42:15.884 --> 0:42:21.364
<v Speaker 1>out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm.

0:42:21.444 --> 0:42:24.884
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondikova.

0:42:24.164 --> 0:42:25.484
<v Speaker 2>And byby Nate Silver.

0:42:25.884 --> 0:42:29.404
<v Speaker 1>The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

0:42:29.924 --> 0:42:33.484
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

0:42:33.564 --> 0:42:37.124
<v Speaker 1>is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

0:42:37.684 --> 0:42:39.844
<v Speaker 2>If you like the show, please rate and review us

0:42:39.844 --> 0:42:41.924
<v Speaker 2>so other people can find us too. And if you

0:42:41.924 --> 0:42:44.284
<v Speaker 2>want to listen to an AD free version, sign up

0:42:44.324 --> 0:42:46.884
<v Speaker 2>for Pushkin Plus. For six, ten and nine a month

0:42:46.924 --> 0:42:49.684
<v Speaker 2>you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.

0:42:50.804 --> 0:42:50.844
<v Speaker 1>T