1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,804 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,844 --> 00:00:30,324 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:29,964 --> 00:00:33,204 Speaker 2: And I am Nate Silver. Well, shit is getting real. 4 00:00:33,444 --> 00:00:35,724 Speaker 2: It's one week to go to the presidential election. And 5 00:00:35,804 --> 00:00:38,044 Speaker 2: since this is a show about making good decisions, we're 6 00:00:38,044 --> 00:00:40,204 Speaker 2: going to talk about some of the good and bad 7 00:00:40,524 --> 00:00:43,804 Speaker 2: spoiler alert, mostly bad decisions that the campaigns have made 8 00:00:43,844 --> 00:00:45,644 Speaker 2: so far in the race. How are they managing risk 9 00:00:45,724 --> 00:00:46,204 Speaker 2: and reward? 10 00:00:46,484 --> 00:00:49,124 Speaker 1: And after that, since we are a week out, we're 11 00:00:49,124 --> 00:00:52,724 Speaker 1: going to look at the Silver Bulletin model and see 12 00:00:52,724 --> 00:00:55,724 Speaker 1: where we stand and what this next week is shaping 13 00:00:55,804 --> 00:01:06,724 Speaker 1: up to look like. The news this week has been 14 00:01:06,764 --> 00:01:09,124 Speaker 1: I think more Trump dominant than it has been for 15 00:01:09,164 --> 00:01:13,084 Speaker 1: a while while, maybe since the assassination. I'm attempt I'm 16 00:01:13,124 --> 00:01:17,484 Speaker 1: not sure, but I think you actually did Google words 17 00:01:17,524 --> 00:01:18,924 Speaker 1: analysis or something like that. 18 00:01:19,004 --> 00:01:21,004 Speaker 2: Yeah, the number of people searching for Trump is the 19 00:01:21,084 --> 00:01:24,604 Speaker 2: highest that it has been since the second assassination attempt, 20 00:01:25,044 --> 00:01:28,484 Speaker 2: and you've not seen that spike for Harris. So sometimes 21 00:01:28,524 --> 00:01:32,164 Speaker 2: having Google news searches is good at might indicate voter interest, 22 00:01:32,284 --> 00:01:36,964 Speaker 2: but this seems like it's at least potentially correlated with 23 00:01:36,964 --> 00:01:40,964 Speaker 2: with the rally that Trump held outside my apartment. Basis right. 24 00:01:41,004 --> 00:01:44,284 Speaker 1: I was going to say, in your backyard, some square garden. 25 00:01:44,604 --> 00:01:48,204 Speaker 2: I lived near Messi's Fort Garden, which is tremendously convenient 26 00:01:49,164 --> 00:01:51,884 Speaker 2: when you're going to Rangers games or Knicks games. I'm 27 00:01:51,924 --> 00:01:55,004 Speaker 2: a fan of both teams. A great start for the Rangers, 28 00:01:55,484 --> 00:01:59,364 Speaker 2: by the way. But Trump also decided to have a 29 00:01:59,444 --> 00:02:03,724 Speaker 2: rally there on Sunday went all day. I was like, oh, 30 00:02:03,724 --> 00:02:06,004 Speaker 2: maybe there's a next game nine. I'm not doing anything. Nope, 31 00:02:06,284 --> 00:02:09,244 Speaker 2: Trump rally woke up at eight am. You hear Houghton 32 00:02:09,244 --> 00:02:13,164 Speaker 2: and outside your window, and then all day my block 33 00:02:13,284 --> 00:02:15,644 Speaker 2: is cordoned off. You have to show your idea to 34 00:02:15,644 --> 00:02:17,044 Speaker 2: to you know, if you go get coffee, it'll go 35 00:02:17,564 --> 00:02:20,604 Speaker 2: show your idea when you get back. So a comedian 36 00:02:20,764 --> 00:02:25,244 Speaker 2: named Tony Henschliff, I believe that's fanatic, made a disparaging 37 00:02:25,284 --> 00:02:26,564 Speaker 2: comment about. 38 00:02:26,444 --> 00:02:29,244 Speaker 1: Puerto Rican disparaging comment. 39 00:02:30,524 --> 00:02:32,324 Speaker 2: A joke, many. 40 00:02:32,084 --> 00:02:35,324 Speaker 1: Disparaging comments, but yes one in particular. 41 00:02:35,764 --> 00:02:39,524 Speaker 2: You called it a floating island of garbage, very dry 42 00:02:39,644 --> 00:02:42,444 Speaker 2: humor at best. John Stewart defended him. I don't know, 43 00:02:42,524 --> 00:02:46,364 Speaker 2: but like you know, Puerto Ricans, there's actually a fairly 44 00:02:46,444 --> 00:02:51,724 Speaker 2: large Puerto Rican population in Pennsylvania. But you know, you 45 00:02:51,804 --> 00:02:54,124 Speaker 2: had the all Stars. I don't know how to put it. 46 00:02:54,164 --> 00:02:57,124 Speaker 2: You got Rudy Giuliani, you got Hope Hogan, you got 47 00:02:57,124 --> 00:02:59,604 Speaker 2: Elon Musk. I know, if it's jumping around, I tried 48 00:02:59,604 --> 00:03:03,604 Speaker 2: to avoid it, but this is kind of the major 49 00:03:03,644 --> 00:03:06,364 Speaker 2: news cycle heading to the final week of the campaign. 50 00:03:06,804 --> 00:03:09,724 Speaker 2: It dovetails with some other messaging that Kamala Hair is 51 00:03:09,724 --> 00:03:13,084 Speaker 2: focused on. She is giving recordings on Tuesday early afternoon 52 00:03:13,404 --> 00:03:17,924 Speaker 2: Tuesday night Eastern time. Harris is holding a rally in Washington, 53 00:03:18,004 --> 00:03:20,764 Speaker 2: d C. At a location where Trump It's called it 54 00:03:20,764 --> 00:03:23,244 Speaker 2: the Ellipse maybe or the Eclipse or something. I know, 55 00:03:23,324 --> 00:03:30,204 Speaker 2: DC where Trump initiated the insurrection riot. Some people call 56 00:03:30,204 --> 00:03:32,724 Speaker 2: it a coup. I think the coup experts say it's not. 57 00:03:33,204 --> 00:03:36,124 Speaker 2: It's sparkling insurrection or not coup or something. 58 00:03:37,484 --> 00:03:39,364 Speaker 1: It doesn't come from the coup region of Francia. 59 00:03:39,484 --> 00:03:43,364 Speaker 2: Yeah, but trying to bring this home to h January 60 00:03:43,404 --> 00:03:49,204 Speaker 2: sixth and Trump's threats to democracy, which is, oh boy, 61 00:03:49,204 --> 00:03:51,284 Speaker 2: now I'm gonna piss summer ar listeners. Not a message 62 00:03:51,324 --> 00:03:53,964 Speaker 2: that one has to wonder whether it might be a 63 00:03:53,964 --> 00:03:56,164 Speaker 2: little stale. This was a message that Joe Biden kicked 64 00:03:56,164 --> 00:04:00,324 Speaker 2: his campaign off, and look, I believe that uh Trump, 65 00:04:00,404 --> 00:04:02,244 Speaker 2: I mean, I think January six was really bad and 66 00:04:02,284 --> 00:04:03,564 Speaker 2: I think he has no respect for the rule of 67 00:04:03,604 --> 00:04:06,364 Speaker 2: law and the guardrails are weaker. And you know, to 68 00:04:06,604 --> 00:04:13,124 Speaker 2: an elite like me, uh, college educated elite like me, uh, 69 00:04:13,284 --> 00:04:15,284 Speaker 2: this messaging has a lot of resonance, but I don't 70 00:04:15,324 --> 00:04:16,884 Speaker 2: know that it has as much message with swing voters. 71 00:04:16,884 --> 00:04:19,484 Speaker 2: But anyway, Trump avy is kind of u the New 72 00:04:19,564 --> 00:04:21,604 Speaker 2: York what The New York Times called a closing carnival 73 00:04:21,644 --> 00:04:27,044 Speaker 2: of grievances, misogyny and racism plays into her hands a 74 00:04:27,044 --> 00:04:29,844 Speaker 2: little bit when she had lacked the closing message. So 75 00:04:29,884 --> 00:04:31,724 Speaker 2: I guess are we saying good decision or bad decision 76 00:04:31,764 --> 00:04:32,084 Speaker 2: to have this? 77 00:04:32,684 --> 00:04:35,084 Speaker 1: Well, So this is a This is an interesting one 78 00:04:35,124 --> 00:04:39,324 Speaker 1: because you know, there's the old saying that all publicity 79 00:04:39,404 --> 00:04:42,044 Speaker 1: is good publicity, but in this particular case, I don't 80 00:04:42,084 --> 00:04:45,604 Speaker 1: actually know if that's the case, because there are some 81 00:04:45,764 --> 00:04:49,484 Speaker 1: people who did not endorse Kamala Harris for president before 82 00:04:49,724 --> 00:04:52,164 Speaker 1: who all of a sudden rose up and were like, 83 00:04:52,444 --> 00:04:55,324 Speaker 1: what the fuck? You know? So we have we have 84 00:04:55,444 --> 00:05:00,484 Speaker 1: peany Yeah, bad bunny, Mark, Anthony J. Lo, Ricky Martin. 85 00:05:00,764 --> 00:05:02,964 Speaker 1: There are tons of people people whose names, by the way, 86 00:05:03,044 --> 00:05:05,204 Speaker 1: like obviously Bad Bunny we hear all the time in 87 00:05:05,284 --> 00:05:07,244 Speaker 1: j LO, you know, in the context of Ben Affleck 88 00:05:07,284 --> 00:05:13,124 Speaker 1: we hear recently. But but like Mark Anthony and Ricky Martin, 89 00:05:13,124 --> 00:05:15,004 Speaker 1: I'm like, whoa blast from the past. 90 00:05:15,044 --> 00:05:19,084 Speaker 2: I have Martin and Ricky Martin reunion tour. It would 91 00:05:19,124 --> 00:05:20,164 Speaker 2: sell out masses for gardens. 92 00:05:20,244 --> 00:05:23,004 Speaker 1: It absolutely would. And that's when I started looking at 93 00:05:23,004 --> 00:05:25,444 Speaker 1: the number of their followers. I was like, holy shit, Like, 94 00:05:25,884 --> 00:05:27,924 Speaker 1: you know, this could actually, Like I'm not talking about 95 00:05:27,924 --> 00:05:30,364 Speaker 1: like Bad Bundy, who has over eighteen million followers, Like 96 00:05:30,724 --> 00:05:33,844 Speaker 1: these are people with massive reach, and as we've talked about, 97 00:05:33,964 --> 00:05:38,004 Speaker 1: like even fractions of a percent in swing states matter. 98 00:05:38,444 --> 00:05:42,564 Speaker 1: So I am wondering if that specific thing is going 99 00:05:42,564 --> 00:05:46,484 Speaker 1: to matter on the on the margins, and so in 100 00:05:46,564 --> 00:05:49,684 Speaker 1: terms of good decision bad decision, I'm not sure. I 101 00:05:49,684 --> 00:05:52,724 Speaker 1: don't know if all these I actually I don't know 102 00:05:53,084 --> 00:05:57,884 Speaker 1: if swing voters are listening, if undecided are listening. If 103 00:05:57,884 --> 00:06:00,524 Speaker 1: they are, then maybe it was a bad decision. What 104 00:06:00,564 --> 00:06:01,204 Speaker 1: do you think name? 105 00:06:02,284 --> 00:06:03,924 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I don't think old people like well you 106 00:06:03,964 --> 00:06:05,684 Speaker 2: should a little reality in Pennsylvania. I mean He's had 107 00:06:05,684 --> 00:06:09,004 Speaker 2: a lot of fucking rallies in Pennsylvania, you know the 108 00:06:09,124 --> 00:06:11,364 Speaker 2: nash press attention that you get from this, but these 109 00:06:11,604 --> 00:06:14,484 Speaker 2: this is like some of the most negative headlines, yes 110 00:06:14,524 --> 00:06:17,644 Speaker 2: from the liberal media that Trump's gotten in weeks, but 111 00:06:17,684 --> 00:06:21,604 Speaker 2: also from some news outlets like Politico or writers that 112 00:06:21,644 --> 00:06:24,524 Speaker 2: are studiously neutral and in their headline choices are pointing 113 00:06:24,524 --> 00:06:27,884 Speaker 2: out comments that they call racist, they don't say racially 114 00:06:28,044 --> 00:06:33,124 Speaker 2: charged or and those probably aren't great headlines for Trump. 115 00:06:33,204 --> 00:06:36,084 Speaker 2: And I don't know, I mean again, he is relying 116 00:06:36,204 --> 00:06:40,324 Speaker 2: on picking up a substantial share of the vote from 117 00:06:40,604 --> 00:06:43,844 Speaker 2: black and Hispanic voters. If you look at the polls, 118 00:06:43,924 --> 00:06:47,724 Speaker 2: or something like a fifteen point shift among black voters. 119 00:06:47,804 --> 00:06:53,644 Speaker 2: Supposedly there is something like a a eight point shift 120 00:06:53,684 --> 00:06:57,684 Speaker 2: among Hispanic voters that vary their poll to poll. This 121 00:06:57,764 --> 00:07:01,764 Speaker 2: is pre rally, yeah, rally, but yeah, maybe have to 122 00:07:01,764 --> 00:07:04,444 Speaker 2: look at the Puerto Rican demographics and more detail. I 123 00:07:04,444 --> 00:07:08,364 Speaker 2: think this coterie of people that Trump surrounds himself with, 124 00:07:08,444 --> 00:07:12,764 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know, it's a goof a goofy 125 00:07:12,844 --> 00:07:14,644 Speaker 2: law of act is you know at sight, I don't 126 00:07:14,684 --> 00:07:19,204 Speaker 2: know what why more some Australian accent there. It's all good. 127 00:07:19,244 --> 00:07:20,044 Speaker 1: I love it. 128 00:07:20,044 --> 00:07:22,724 Speaker 2: It's not putting. Yeah, I think it's a bad decision 129 00:07:22,764 --> 00:07:29,044 Speaker 2: to have this guy speak, and you had Republicans, your 130 00:07:29,044 --> 00:07:32,884 Speaker 2: Republicans apologizing for it. That's kind of a relatively objective benchmark. Yeah, 131 00:07:32,924 --> 00:07:36,564 Speaker 2: for rich Scott, the Republican Senate tour, one of them 132 00:07:36,844 --> 00:07:39,724 Speaker 2: in Florida had to apologize for this. 133 00:07:40,764 --> 00:07:44,964 Speaker 1: Yeah. And you know, Pennsylvania has approximately half a million 134 00:07:45,084 --> 00:07:47,884 Speaker 1: Puerto Ricans, So like to think that they thought that 135 00:07:47,924 --> 00:07:50,724 Speaker 1: this was a good, good thing to do is just 136 00:07:50,804 --> 00:07:53,484 Speaker 1: kind of crazy. It just goes to show that Trump 137 00:07:53,524 --> 00:07:55,684 Speaker 1: truly does think that he can get away with anything 138 00:07:55,724 --> 00:07:57,764 Speaker 1: at this point. And it doesn't matter. It's like this, 139 00:07:58,364 --> 00:08:00,924 Speaker 1: you know, it's this Hubris that's next level. 140 00:08:01,084 --> 00:08:04,524 Speaker 2: He's not a detailed guy. No, I don't think Trump 141 00:08:04,604 --> 00:08:06,524 Speaker 2: is going with a red pan call it when he's 142 00:08:06,524 --> 00:08:07,964 Speaker 2: a red pin or a black I don't think Crump's 143 00:08:07,964 --> 00:08:11,764 Speaker 2: going over with a sharpie. 144 00:08:09,724 --> 00:08:12,804 Speaker 1: Sharp as his instrument of choice, that's true. 145 00:08:12,844 --> 00:08:15,284 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think he's going only with a sharpie 146 00:08:15,484 --> 00:08:19,724 Speaker 2: and vetoing individual jokes. But but anyway, you want to 147 00:08:19,724 --> 00:08:21,124 Speaker 2: talk about some earlier Yes. 148 00:08:21,004 --> 00:08:23,244 Speaker 1: So, so I think I think we I think we're 149 00:08:23,284 --> 00:08:25,524 Speaker 1: coming down on the line of bad decisions. But since 150 00:08:25,564 --> 00:08:29,124 Speaker 1: we're talking about Puerto Rico and Pennsylvania and Puerto Ricans 151 00:08:29,124 --> 00:08:33,004 Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania, let's go back in time to another pivotal 152 00:08:33,124 --> 00:08:39,444 Speaker 1: campaign decision, which is choice of vice presidential candidate. And 153 00:08:39,884 --> 00:08:43,204 Speaker 1: we we have our listeners know what you think, NATEA 154 00:08:43,444 --> 00:08:46,124 Speaker 1: and what I think. But let's just let's just talk 155 00:08:46,164 --> 00:08:49,124 Speaker 1: through it right now with one week ago until the election. 156 00:08:49,684 --> 00:08:55,364 Speaker 1: Vice presidential candidate choice. Good decision, bad decision, overrated, underrated 157 00:08:55,684 --> 00:08:56,764 Speaker 1: in terms of a factor. 158 00:08:58,284 --> 00:09:00,924 Speaker 2: I think it was a bad decision to go with 159 00:09:01,604 --> 00:09:04,284 Speaker 2: Tim Walls, who has been very much backgrounded after being 160 00:09:04,324 --> 00:09:08,244 Speaker 2: part of this bratt summer. I mean, the argument was 161 00:09:08,244 --> 00:09:10,004 Speaker 2: that at least he can kind of crack these like 162 00:09:10,564 --> 00:09:12,364 Speaker 2: dad jokes and me a good public speaker. They haven't 163 00:09:12,404 --> 00:09:15,084 Speaker 2: had him do that many TV appearances. When he has 164 00:09:15,124 --> 00:09:18,764 Speaker 2: done them, he seemed very nervous. He kind of sucked, 165 00:09:19,164 --> 00:09:23,084 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna pull punches, especially in the early half 166 00:09:23,204 --> 00:09:27,004 Speaker 2: of the jd Vance debate, and then the whole message 167 00:09:27,044 --> 00:09:29,604 Speaker 2: that hey, buddy or just two guys hanging out having 168 00:09:29,644 --> 00:09:33,564 Speaker 2: a debate, when the rest of the Kamala campaign has 169 00:09:33,604 --> 00:09:36,684 Speaker 2: been about like what a unique threat is and how 170 00:09:36,764 --> 00:09:40,884 Speaker 2: we should not normalize this. I just thought was like 171 00:09:41,524 --> 00:09:45,364 Speaker 2: was very strange, and you also would like to have. 172 00:09:46,484 --> 00:09:48,884 Speaker 2: You know, Shapira accomplishes two things. The more important one, 173 00:09:48,884 --> 00:09:51,724 Speaker 2: of course, is that he is the governor of this 174 00:09:51,804 --> 00:09:57,444 Speaker 2: really important state called Pennsylvania, an extra Pennsylvania. It's exact 175 00:09:57,644 --> 00:10:02,564 Speaker 2: scenario that Harris would most want to have Jos Shapiro. 176 00:10:02,564 --> 00:10:05,404 Speaker 2: Where Michigan is polling half a point to a point 177 00:10:05,404 --> 00:10:07,604 Speaker 2: ahead for Harris, Wisconsin's pulling half a point to a 178 00:10:07,604 --> 00:10:10,444 Speaker 2: point ahead. Pennsylvania is a pure tie zero point three 179 00:10:10,484 --> 00:10:13,284 Speaker 2: points in favor of Trump according to our polling average. 180 00:10:13,324 --> 00:10:18,244 Speaker 2: And so boy, just to have one extra percentage point 181 00:10:18,244 --> 00:10:20,564 Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania, so doesn't kind of fall It's not the 182 00:10:20,564 --> 00:10:22,964 Speaker 2: straggler falling behind the line. Also, it would have like 183 00:10:23,044 --> 00:10:29,444 Speaker 2: signaled more of a break toward this new generation of talent. 184 00:10:29,804 --> 00:10:34,284 Speaker 2: Democrats have a lot of talented members. I mean, boy, 185 00:10:34,524 --> 00:10:38,204 Speaker 2: one good thing is if if Harris loses for Democrats 186 00:10:38,244 --> 00:10:40,884 Speaker 2: is that they actually have a really robust bench. Right, 187 00:10:40,884 --> 00:10:41,964 Speaker 2: I mean, her career is going to be over it. 188 00:10:42,004 --> 00:10:43,724 Speaker 2: Maybe she'll try to run percent or something again, right, 189 00:10:43,884 --> 00:10:47,884 Speaker 2: probably get some university president job. I don't know, but 190 00:10:48,324 --> 00:10:50,644 Speaker 2: you know, but they have Shapiro and Gretchen Whimer and 191 00:10:50,684 --> 00:10:54,884 Speaker 2: Wes Moore in Maryland and ruffel Moarnock and Georgia, and 192 00:10:56,124 --> 00:10:59,204 Speaker 2: they have a robust bench and like, you know, maybe 193 00:10:59,244 --> 00:11:01,124 Speaker 2: the bench is better than the starting quarterback, but you 194 00:11:01,124 --> 00:11:04,444 Speaker 2: are able to pick from the bench. And instead they went, 195 00:11:04,564 --> 00:11:06,564 Speaker 2: I don't know what they did exactly, they went and 196 00:11:07,204 --> 00:11:10,444 Speaker 2: like drafted a guy from like the Arena football or something. 197 00:11:11,884 --> 00:11:13,964 Speaker 2: I just I think this is decision that, as I 198 00:11:14,084 --> 00:11:15,404 Speaker 2: was critical of at the time, I think is not 199 00:11:15,444 --> 00:11:16,244 Speaker 2: held up very well. 200 00:11:16,924 --> 00:11:19,684 Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with that. And let me add 201 00:11:19,844 --> 00:11:24,284 Speaker 1: to what you said. It's not just Pennsylvania. You alluded 202 00:11:24,284 --> 00:11:27,964 Speaker 1: to this, but I think Shapiro has much better debating skills, 203 00:11:28,204 --> 00:11:32,364 Speaker 1: would have come off much better against JD. Vance and 204 00:11:32,524 --> 00:11:38,524 Speaker 1: in general right now, would be probably hammering home more guided, 205 00:11:38,724 --> 00:11:41,484 Speaker 1: pointed messages with kind of the end game. This was 206 00:11:41,524 --> 00:11:44,204 Speaker 1: is something we talked about last week that the campaign 207 00:11:44,444 --> 00:11:47,924 Speaker 1: has been a little bit wishy washy hasn't really figured out, 208 00:11:47,964 --> 00:11:50,124 Speaker 1: you know, what are we going to hammer home, you know, 209 00:11:50,204 --> 00:11:53,564 Speaker 1: like abortion or whatever it is in these last weeks. 210 00:11:53,604 --> 00:11:56,604 Speaker 1: And I think Shapiro would have actually probably been much 211 00:11:56,644 --> 00:11:58,644 Speaker 1: better at that and so on the margin that might 212 00:11:58,684 --> 00:12:02,004 Speaker 1: have helped with other swing voters. So I will agree 213 00:12:02,044 --> 00:12:04,844 Speaker 1: with you bad decision for all of these. 214 00:12:04,684 --> 00:12:09,404 Speaker 2: Reasons if you're running on personality, Because look, Harris doesn't 215 00:12:09,484 --> 00:12:12,724 Speaker 2: really have ambitious new plans. You go to like the 216 00:12:12,764 --> 00:12:14,844 Speaker 2: issue section of her page, her homepage and says a 217 00:12:14,844 --> 00:12:17,644 Speaker 2: couple of heroes was a prosecutor. She cares about the people, like, no, honey, 218 00:12:17,724 --> 00:12:19,124 Speaker 2: I want to know about the fucking issues. That's why 219 00:12:19,124 --> 00:12:23,844 Speaker 2: I kicks on the issues page. Enough bio, enough fucking vibes. 220 00:12:24,284 --> 00:12:29,884 Speaker 2: What are your issues? And she's been very afraid of 221 00:12:29,884 --> 00:12:31,804 Speaker 2: that because on the one hand, she doesn't want to 222 00:12:32,404 --> 00:12:35,604 Speaker 2: own the unpopular accomplishments of like the Biden Harris administration 223 00:12:35,644 --> 00:12:38,324 Speaker 2: in their hands. She wants to run away from her 224 00:12:38,364 --> 00:12:42,204 Speaker 2: unpopular positions in twenty nineteen, and like ambitious new government 225 00:12:42,204 --> 00:12:44,844 Speaker 2: spending programs are harder sell in an environment where there's 226 00:12:44,884 --> 00:12:49,044 Speaker 2: lots of concern about inflation and deficits and interest rates 227 00:12:49,364 --> 00:12:52,884 Speaker 2: and things like that. And so I don't know, at 228 00:12:52,964 --> 00:12:56,964 Speaker 2: least with Shapiro, you have two really strong personalities. Maybe 229 00:12:56,964 --> 00:12:58,444 Speaker 2: they clash a little bit, but you can do things 230 00:12:58,484 --> 00:13:02,924 Speaker 2: with clashing personalities. What are podcasts all about Maria clashing personalities. 231 00:13:04,924 --> 00:13:10,044 Speaker 3: No, man, it's just yeah, yeah, And I think, well, well, 232 00:13:10,484 --> 00:13:12,524 Speaker 3: there's something in there that will will come back to 233 00:13:12,604 --> 00:13:14,884 Speaker 3: because it's another kind of good decision, bad decision, because 234 00:13:14,884 --> 00:13:17,884 Speaker 3: obviously Kamwell Harris is in a really shitty position because 235 00:13:17,884 --> 00:13:20,964 Speaker 3: she's still the VP, Biden is still president and she 236 00:13:21,324 --> 00:13:23,644 Speaker 3: you know, she's also running, and she she has been 237 00:13:23,684 --> 00:13:27,644 Speaker 3: put in this unfortunate place where where it does kind 238 00:13:27,644 --> 00:13:30,564 Speaker 3: of put a damper on the types of things that 239 00:13:30,604 --> 00:13:32,244 Speaker 3: she feels that she kind of can't say. 240 00:13:32,884 --> 00:13:35,524 Speaker 1: But before we move on to that, let's let's do 241 00:13:35,604 --> 00:13:38,484 Speaker 1: this decision for the Republican camp as well. Jd Vance 242 00:13:38,564 --> 00:13:40,124 Speaker 1: good decision, bad decision. 243 00:13:40,964 --> 00:13:44,644 Speaker 2: Also a bad decision. I mean there was like the 244 00:13:44,684 --> 00:13:49,084 Speaker 2: season of jd Vance like couch jokes misinformation by the way, 245 00:13:49,124 --> 00:13:54,444 Speaker 2: but jokes are okay if they're about Republicans. But like, 246 00:13:54,524 --> 00:13:58,964 Speaker 2: he remains I believe maybe the most unpopular VP and history. 247 00:13:59,004 --> 00:14:00,804 Speaker 2: I think Sarah Palin stumbers were declined at this points. 248 00:14:00,804 --> 00:14:05,364 Speaker 2: That's probably a close two way race. Ohio is not 249 00:14:05,444 --> 00:14:07,884 Speaker 2: a swing state. It does have a competitive Senate race. 250 00:14:08,244 --> 00:14:09,924 Speaker 2: He is a good debater, I mean, Jie advances like 251 00:14:10,004 --> 00:14:13,364 Speaker 2: the blogger personality type, right, Jadadvance would be a good 252 00:14:13,364 --> 00:14:17,484 Speaker 2: podcaster and a good blogger, and that probably correlates well 253 00:14:17,524 --> 00:14:21,044 Speaker 2: with doing a relatively effective job at the debate, although 254 00:14:21,044 --> 00:14:24,484 Speaker 2: again he was also hamstrung by not wind to deny 255 00:14:24,524 --> 00:14:27,844 Speaker 2: that Trump's an election denier. I'm using a double negative, right, 256 00:14:27,884 --> 00:14:30,924 Speaker 2: but not willing to admit that Biden won in twenty twenty. 257 00:14:33,044 --> 00:14:36,804 Speaker 2: Very inexperienced campaigner. He ran one, just run in and 258 00:14:36,804 --> 00:14:40,524 Speaker 2: won just one election in his lifetime. And the decision 259 00:14:40,604 --> 00:14:43,764 Speaker 2: was made apparently after intervention from like the Trump kids, 260 00:14:45,244 --> 00:14:47,804 Speaker 2: and at a time when Trump was writing really high 261 00:14:47,844 --> 00:14:51,724 Speaker 2: in the polls. This is when he'd just been almost assassinated, 262 00:14:52,164 --> 00:14:55,964 Speaker 2: when Joe Biden was still trying to run as a candidate. 263 00:14:56,004 --> 00:14:57,364 Speaker 2: But after the debate, and I think they just thought 264 00:14:57,364 --> 00:14:59,044 Speaker 2: they're going to run away with this and we'll cement 265 00:14:59,084 --> 00:15:02,044 Speaker 2: our legacy. And that was a bad decision too. 266 00:15:02,924 --> 00:15:08,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that we can I agree that 267 00:15:08,524 --> 00:15:13,084 Speaker 1: it was a bad decision for Trump, but I think 268 00:15:13,124 --> 00:15:16,524 Speaker 1: that another kind of element of that good decision, bad 269 00:15:16,564 --> 00:15:24,044 Speaker 1: decision is forceight, right, like being willing to think that, oh, 270 00:15:24,164 --> 00:15:27,524 Speaker 1: Biden might not be the person I'm running against, so 271 00:15:27,684 --> 00:15:31,924 Speaker 1: kind of failure to look ahead, failure to consider the 272 00:15:31,924 --> 00:15:35,124 Speaker 1: possibility that Kamala Harris might actually be the person that 273 00:15:35,164 --> 00:15:38,164 Speaker 1: you're running against. It does seem like the Trump campaign, 274 00:15:38,164 --> 00:15:40,404 Speaker 1: We've talked about this before, really drops the ball on this. 275 00:15:40,484 --> 00:15:43,404 Speaker 1: So that's another bad decision in terms of campaign planning. 276 00:15:43,564 --> 00:15:44,924 Speaker 1: And I don't know if that has to do with, 277 00:15:45,444 --> 00:15:48,284 Speaker 1: you know, over confidence with the people he surrounded himself with. 278 00:15:48,484 --> 00:15:51,804 Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure what was behind that, but it 279 00:15:51,844 --> 00:15:55,124 Speaker 1: does seem like a major oversight in terms of campaign planning. 280 00:15:55,164 --> 00:15:57,564 Speaker 1: And that was another decision point, you know, when he 281 00:15:57,644 --> 00:16:00,964 Speaker 1: picked jd. Vance, it was clear that Biden, you know, 282 00:16:01,204 --> 00:16:05,124 Speaker 1: was not necessarily going to stay the presidential choice for 283 00:16:05,164 --> 00:16:07,244 Speaker 1: the Democrats and Republicans. 284 00:16:07,284 --> 00:16:08,844 Speaker 2: I don't think believe that. I think they thought, well, 285 00:16:09,004 --> 00:16:13,244 Speaker 2: there he's Trump of the Democratic Party, and I think 286 00:16:13,284 --> 00:16:19,124 Speaker 2: Republicans underestimated Democrats desire to win elect the fuck loss 287 00:16:19,124 --> 00:16:21,564 Speaker 2: of shit up right, But like Democrats know how to 288 00:16:21,564 --> 00:16:24,524 Speaker 2: look at polls showing Biden behind in every swing state 289 00:16:26,124 --> 00:16:30,844 Speaker 2: and there's a sizable minority of polling spinners and deniers 290 00:16:30,884 --> 00:16:34,524 Speaker 2: in the party. But cooler heads and stander heads prevailed. 291 00:16:34,604 --> 00:16:36,044 Speaker 2: But you want to go back, let's go way back 292 00:16:36,084 --> 00:16:42,244 Speaker 2: to March twenty twenty three. I think I'm still working 293 00:16:42,284 --> 00:16:45,804 Speaker 2: at ABC News at that point, kind of half acidly 294 00:16:47,604 --> 00:16:50,444 Speaker 2: and uh, because the writing is on the wall, and 295 00:16:50,484 --> 00:16:53,724 Speaker 2: the writing was also on the wall for Joe Biden 296 00:16:53,764 --> 00:16:59,284 Speaker 2: being really fucking old. And to be fair, the times 297 00:16:59,404 --> 00:17:03,684 Speaker 2: when Biden consistently began to trail Trump and head to 298 00:17:03,724 --> 00:17:07,924 Speaker 2: head poles was later in twenty twenty three. By fall 299 00:17:08,004 --> 00:17:09,964 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, all these poles from and it's too 300 00:17:10,004 --> 00:17:12,124 Speaker 2: early to look at polls, et cetera, but like these 301 00:17:12,164 --> 00:17:15,604 Speaker 2: poles are coming out showing that Biden is now trailing 302 00:17:15,644 --> 00:17:18,244 Speaker 2: Trump again a year plus and advance doesn't mean that much. 303 00:17:18,524 --> 00:17:20,804 Speaker 2: But also that like depending on pole you look at, 304 00:17:20,844 --> 00:17:22,924 Speaker 2: like eighty percent of Americans say he's too old and 305 00:17:22,924 --> 00:17:25,364 Speaker 2: you have concerns about his ability to like effectively serve out. 306 00:17:25,804 --> 00:17:28,924 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, how many Americans. 307 00:17:28,484 --> 00:17:34,044 Speaker 2: Eighty seventy eighteen zero seventy's that's a big percent. Kings 308 00:17:34,324 --> 00:17:36,644 Speaker 2: Kings versus Queen's you like to being on the eighties. Yeah, 309 00:17:36,764 --> 00:17:40,764 Speaker 2: you know, that's pretty good. But Biden decided that he 310 00:17:40,844 --> 00:17:43,444 Speaker 2: was going to hit a two outer and decided that 311 00:17:43,484 --> 00:17:45,204 Speaker 2: he was going to run for election again. But in 312 00:17:45,284 --> 00:17:51,364 Speaker 2: March twenty twenty three, Democrats eased his path by announcing 313 00:17:51,364 --> 00:17:57,364 Speaker 2: there would be no primary debates. I'm sure envisioning, you know, 314 00:17:57,444 --> 00:18:00,924 Speaker 2: Mary and Williamson and Biden and a circus or whatever 315 00:18:00,964 --> 00:18:04,604 Speaker 2: that would have been. So, I know, good decision or 316 00:18:04,604 --> 00:18:05,604 Speaker 2: bad decision. 317 00:18:05,684 --> 00:18:08,284 Speaker 1: Horrible decision. I think this was probably one of the 318 00:18:08,324 --> 00:18:11,084 Speaker 1: worst decisions they could have made. If we had had 319 00:18:11,164 --> 00:18:14,684 Speaker 1: primary debates. I think that a lot of Biden's weaknesses 320 00:18:14,764 --> 00:18:18,324 Speaker 1: would have come out immediately, right we wouldn't have had 321 00:18:18,484 --> 00:18:21,924 Speaker 1: to wait until his debate with Trump. And by the way, 322 00:18:22,084 --> 00:18:24,924 Speaker 1: Democrats absolutely knew this, which is why there were no 323 00:18:25,044 --> 00:18:31,044 Speaker 1: primary debates, right like they already I think maybe they 324 00:18:31,044 --> 00:18:32,524 Speaker 1: didn't know it was going to be such a disaster, 325 00:18:32,604 --> 00:18:34,444 Speaker 1: but I think they knew that he wasn't going to 326 00:18:34,484 --> 00:18:37,804 Speaker 1: hold his own in all in all respects. I mean, 327 00:18:37,804 --> 00:18:40,724 Speaker 1: he was already not doing much media, like, I don't 328 00:18:40,764 --> 00:18:42,564 Speaker 1: know you're going to push back. You don't think that 329 00:18:42,604 --> 00:18:45,004 Speaker 1: they knew that he was gonna not be a good debater. 330 00:18:46,844 --> 00:18:50,644 Speaker 2: I think first of all, Democrats, whatever they're doing behind 331 00:18:50,644 --> 00:18:53,964 Speaker 2: the scenes, managed to convince that there was no credible 332 00:18:54,724 --> 00:18:58,004 Speaker 2: opposition to Biden. Mary and Williamson. I actually went throughte 333 00:18:58,484 --> 00:19:01,724 Speaker 2: no offense to Mary and Williamson and Dean Phillips, but 334 00:19:01,964 --> 00:19:04,844 Speaker 2: xxx there wasn't a serious primary, and he both responded 335 00:19:04,844 --> 00:19:07,484 Speaker 2: Dean Phillips like, ah, no offense taken, and Mary on 336 00:19:07,484 --> 00:19:11,404 Speaker 2: Williams it's like, I do take fam, I'm a serious 337 00:19:11,484 --> 00:19:15,004 Speaker 2: candidate for president. She's like a mid Atlantic act. It's 338 00:19:15,004 --> 00:19:17,924 Speaker 2: like newscast. I can't. I don't know in never mind, 339 00:19:17,964 --> 00:19:21,244 Speaker 2: I'm not trying to do that those but like, yeah, 340 00:19:21,284 --> 00:19:23,444 Speaker 2: I think to have Biden up on stage with the 341 00:19:23,444 --> 00:19:26,364 Speaker 2: Maryam Williamson wouldn't have accomplished very much. And Democrats kind 342 00:19:26,364 --> 00:19:28,724 Speaker 2: of live in fear of they confuse cause and effect. 343 00:19:28,724 --> 00:19:30,804 Speaker 2: It's what happened generally speaking, what happens that when you 344 00:19:30,804 --> 00:19:34,004 Speaker 2: have a primary challenge, that party loses. The reason why 345 00:19:34,044 --> 00:19:35,364 Speaker 2: it is the only time you have a primary challenge 346 00:19:35,404 --> 00:19:37,564 Speaker 2: is when a candidate is going to lose anyway, so 347 00:19:37,644 --> 00:19:40,164 Speaker 2: he's vulnerable and and you're trying to get voters under alternatives, 348 00:19:40,164 --> 00:19:44,324 Speaker 2: So you're confusing cause and effect there. And look, Democrats, 349 00:19:44,324 --> 00:19:47,524 Speaker 2: I mean the rumors before twenty twenty two, Carolyn Maloney, 350 00:19:47,564 --> 00:19:51,524 Speaker 2: my former congresswoman, went out and said, oh yeah, everyone 351 00:19:51,564 --> 00:19:53,444 Speaker 2: knows Biden's going to retire. He's a one term president. 352 00:19:53,484 --> 00:19:55,764 Speaker 2: And then I think the reporting on this is still 353 00:19:55,804 --> 00:20:00,164 Speaker 2: not entirely clear on whether Biden was leaning toward retirement 354 00:20:00,324 --> 00:20:02,124 Speaker 2: and then changed his mind, or if he had never 355 00:20:02,164 --> 00:20:05,004 Speaker 2: announced any plans, or if it's like, fuck these people, 356 00:20:05,364 --> 00:20:07,284 Speaker 2: you know, they can't make me retire. I'm the president 357 00:20:07,324 --> 00:20:10,924 Speaker 2: of the United States. And then but but anyway, Democrats 358 00:20:10,924 --> 00:20:14,164 Speaker 2: had had this relatively good mid term and made a decision, 359 00:20:14,204 --> 00:20:16,564 Speaker 2: we want to clean our hands of anything that could 360 00:20:16,764 --> 00:20:21,804 Speaker 2: muck up this coronation. I mean, they thought, you go 361 00:20:21,884 --> 00:20:25,364 Speaker 2: back and look at this, right, they thought, oh my god, 362 00:20:25,404 --> 00:20:27,884 Speaker 2: we're gonna get another Biden Trump rematch, and we won 363 00:20:27,964 --> 00:20:31,364 Speaker 2: that last time. So this is awesome. This is great. 364 00:20:31,444 --> 00:20:35,124 Speaker 2: And then after a nine percent inflation and eighty one 365 00:20:35,444 --> 00:20:42,404 Speaker 2: years old and some major increase in illegal undocumented if 366 00:20:42,404 --> 00:20:46,364 Speaker 2: you prefer immigration across the Mexican border, that's a pretty 367 00:20:46,404 --> 00:20:50,644 Speaker 2: tough electoral environment and you probably need a stronger candidate. 368 00:20:50,724 --> 00:20:53,364 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you that. Like, if we look 369 00:20:53,444 --> 00:20:58,804 Speaker 1: back on any one decision, Biden's decision not to retire 370 00:20:58,924 --> 00:21:01,124 Speaker 1: and say, you know, I'm not seeking a second term 371 00:21:01,404 --> 00:21:06,524 Speaker 1: is probably the single most pivotal decision of this whole campaign, 372 00:21:07,884 --> 00:21:13,684 Speaker 1: something that let's dovetail that with the debate decisions. So 373 00:21:13,764 --> 00:21:18,404 Speaker 1: the timing of the debates and that first debate, you 374 00:21:18,444 --> 00:21:23,204 Speaker 1: know that I watched in fetal position between President Biden 375 00:21:23,324 --> 00:21:28,004 Speaker 1: and Donald Trump, where that was kind of the beginning 376 00:21:28,084 --> 00:21:31,004 Speaker 1: of the end if we look at it that way. 377 00:21:31,204 --> 00:21:34,484 Speaker 1: So changing the debate schedule and having that debate when 378 00:21:34,524 --> 00:21:39,084 Speaker 1: it happened, I would say, you know, it was probably 379 00:21:39,524 --> 00:21:42,484 Speaker 1: a good decision for the campaign because it actually forced 380 00:21:42,484 --> 00:21:46,324 Speaker 1: their hand. But let's talk about that a little bit. 381 00:21:46,724 --> 00:21:49,564 Speaker 2: It's like when you think you're bluffing and your opponent 382 00:21:49,604 --> 00:21:51,284 Speaker 2: calls you with the worst hand. It turns out it 383 00:21:51,324 --> 00:21:57,804 Speaker 2: was a value. But so look, the reporting is still 384 00:21:58,644 --> 00:22:01,284 Speaker 2: when Biden made that move, or his campaign made that move, 385 00:22:01,364 --> 00:22:03,884 Speaker 2: I kind of wrote, like, you know, the one nice 386 00:22:03,884 --> 00:22:05,764 Speaker 2: thing this touch Democrats is that if Biden is so 387 00:22:05,844 --> 00:22:08,284 Speaker 2: bad he has to drop out, then finally you have 388 00:22:08,364 --> 00:22:10,924 Speaker 2: some option value to get rid of him. I don't 389 00:22:10,964 --> 00:22:14,684 Speaker 2: tend to think that his team was doing that on purpose. 390 00:22:14,764 --> 00:22:16,324 Speaker 2: I think they just were like, we have to try something. 391 00:22:16,324 --> 00:22:17,884 Speaker 2: We've been behind the polls from months, and the media 392 00:22:17,924 --> 00:22:20,804 Speaker 2: narrative is not changing. I mean, if there is reporting 393 00:22:21,684 --> 00:22:23,924 Speaker 2: post facto, if Maggie Haberman writes a book or something 394 00:22:23,964 --> 00:22:26,684 Speaker 2: that says, actually, someone in the Biden office was trying 395 00:22:26,684 --> 00:22:28,124 Speaker 2: to get him out and this is their secret plan. 396 00:22:28,164 --> 00:22:30,164 Speaker 2: Because but I don't think there's been any reporting on that. 397 00:22:31,484 --> 00:22:34,484 Speaker 2: So it's a decision that I guess worked out well. 398 00:22:34,564 --> 00:22:36,764 Speaker 2: I mean, Democrats do have this almost fifty to fifty 399 00:22:36,844 --> 00:22:38,724 Speaker 2: chance with Harris they wouldn't have had with Biden. I 400 00:22:38,724 --> 00:22:41,724 Speaker 2: think we'd be talking about, like, you know, hey, can 401 00:22:41,764 --> 00:22:46,964 Speaker 2: five percent chances happen and things like that. Right, However, 402 00:22:47,004 --> 00:22:49,924 Speaker 2: there's another hidden consequence to Harris, which is that so 403 00:22:50,044 --> 00:22:53,564 Speaker 2: Biden didn't just ask for an early debate, he also 404 00:22:53,684 --> 00:22:56,844 Speaker 2: blew up the three debates that had originally been scheduled 405 00:22:56,844 --> 00:23:00,524 Speaker 2: for the counts by the Commission on Presidential Debates. I 406 00:23:00,644 --> 00:23:03,484 Speaker 2: believe we're in October. Maybe one was in late September 407 00:23:03,484 --> 00:23:05,844 Speaker 2: and then two in October. I don't remember exactly, but 408 00:23:05,924 --> 00:23:09,364 Speaker 2: the normal timing of the campaign. So you went from 409 00:23:09,524 --> 00:23:13,564 Speaker 2: having three debates to two, one of which was taken 410 00:23:13,644 --> 00:23:17,364 Speaker 2: up by Biden. And so no Harris, in one of 411 00:23:17,364 --> 00:23:20,764 Speaker 2: her strongest formats, only has one debate. I mean, Harris's 412 00:23:20,764 --> 00:23:22,604 Speaker 2: best polling period of the whole campaign was after that 413 00:23:22,684 --> 00:23:26,844 Speaker 2: first debate and her honeymoon period. But like the first 414 00:23:26,884 --> 00:23:30,204 Speaker 2: and only debate and like lost any leverage to claim 415 00:23:30,204 --> 00:23:31,764 Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, once you blew up the calendar, 416 00:23:31,884 --> 00:23:34,324 Speaker 2: then you can't really make hay of the fact that, 417 00:23:34,404 --> 00:23:37,164 Speaker 2: like Trump is also very unreliable and he didn't go 418 00:23:37,164 --> 00:23:39,364 Speaker 2: to the GP primary debates. He had lots of gripes 419 00:23:39,404 --> 00:23:42,244 Speaker 2: with a Commission on Presidential Debates last cycle, he might 420 00:23:42,284 --> 00:23:45,444 Speaker 2: have been very strategic and not cared about like the 421 00:23:45,484 --> 00:23:47,844 Speaker 2: reputational risk from looking like you're ducking a debate. But 422 00:23:47,964 --> 00:23:50,364 Speaker 2: like if Kambal Harris had another debate last week, I 423 00:23:50,404 --> 00:23:53,444 Speaker 2: think this might have been a meaningfully different race. And 424 00:23:53,484 --> 00:23:55,604 Speaker 2: the fucking Biden people fucked that up. 425 00:23:56,164 --> 00:24:02,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's just I don't know, I don't know, Okay, 426 00:24:01,924 --> 00:24:04,924 Speaker 1: So let's sum this up. Obviously, there are lots of 427 00:24:04,964 --> 00:24:07,884 Speaker 1: moving parts to this debate decision, but let's come to 428 00:24:08,004 --> 00:24:12,404 Speaker 1: a net assessment. Nate, what do you think in terms 429 00:24:12,484 --> 00:24:15,724 Speaker 1: of kind of the the end result the decision of 430 00:24:15,764 --> 00:24:19,204 Speaker 1: the Biden campaign to rearrange the debate schedule. Have that 431 00:24:19,284 --> 00:24:22,684 Speaker 1: one earlier debate, you know, blow ups of the later 432 00:24:22,764 --> 00:24:26,604 Speaker 1: debates net positive net negative. Good decision, bad decision? 433 00:24:27,364 --> 00:24:30,124 Speaker 2: Are we focusing on process or not? Or results? 434 00:24:30,204 --> 00:24:32,284 Speaker 1: Maria working on process? 435 00:24:32,324 --> 00:24:34,364 Speaker 2: Don't we tellt people? Then it was a terrible decision 436 00:24:35,004 --> 00:24:36,604 Speaker 2: because if they actually thought that was going to make 437 00:24:36,644 --> 00:24:38,284 Speaker 2: Joe Biden look good and the stupidt fucking people in 438 00:24:38,324 --> 00:24:40,844 Speaker 2: the history of the world, well not just the politics. 439 00:24:41,284 --> 00:24:43,164 Speaker 1: Now, I think we have to focus on process. And 440 00:24:43,204 --> 00:24:46,124 Speaker 1: we're taping this Tuesday, October twenty ninth. We don't know, 441 00:24:46,244 --> 00:24:49,364 Speaker 1: right we cannot be outcome oriented right now. We know 442 00:24:49,444 --> 00:24:52,204 Speaker 1: that what happened in terms of the Biden campaign, but 443 00:24:52,324 --> 00:24:54,924 Speaker 1: we don't know what that means for the election. 444 00:24:55,084 --> 00:24:58,324 Speaker 2: We do know that they improved terros gives Democrats, to 445 00:24:58,324 --> 00:25:02,604 Speaker 2: my estimation, double the chances roughly are more than that, right, 446 00:25:02,644 --> 00:25:04,644 Speaker 2: So like, so that part of the decision worked out 447 00:25:05,084 --> 00:25:06,844 Speaker 2: well for them. I guess if she loses by less 448 00:25:06,884 --> 00:25:11,124 Speaker 2: than nobody really cares, I suppose. But so in a 449 00:25:11,164 --> 00:25:13,284 Speaker 2: poker tournament where second place gets like eighty percent of 450 00:25:13,764 --> 00:25:15,924 Speaker 2: first place money or something, right, it could be president 451 00:25:17,044 --> 00:25:21,684 Speaker 2: time you alternate round up to like it's a landslike 452 00:25:21,684 --> 00:25:23,964 Speaker 2: it and be like five days Tuesday, So HAIs be 453 00:25:24,004 --> 00:25:27,604 Speaker 2: president Tuesdays Wednesdays, and I think Trump likes to play 454 00:25:27,724 --> 00:25:30,684 Speaker 2: golf on Saturday, so let's give Harris Saturday too. 455 00:25:31,804 --> 00:25:33,364 Speaker 1: I love it. I love it. But yeah, now, I 456 00:25:33,364 --> 00:25:35,724 Speaker 1: think we do have to focus on process rather than outcome, 457 00:25:35,764 --> 00:25:39,604 Speaker 1: because as poker players, as people who talk about decision making, 458 00:25:39,604 --> 00:25:41,884 Speaker 1: that's the only way that you can that you can 459 00:25:42,564 --> 00:25:45,684 Speaker 1: actually evaluate the decision quality. And in a case like this, 460 00:25:45,804 --> 00:25:49,084 Speaker 1: where there are so many moving parts, I think that 461 00:25:49,084 --> 00:25:51,284 Speaker 1: that that it has to be the swinging net and 462 00:25:51,284 --> 00:25:53,204 Speaker 1: determination bad process. 463 00:25:54,724 --> 00:25:56,804 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. 464 00:26:14,284 --> 00:26:18,044 Speaker 1: So let's talk about that moment when Biden drops out 465 00:26:18,324 --> 00:26:21,564 Speaker 1: and Harris very very quickly becomes the presumptive not money. 466 00:26:21,804 --> 00:26:24,164 Speaker 1: I know that at that point night you were talking 467 00:26:24,164 --> 00:26:26,764 Speaker 1: about potentially doing kind of this mini primary. That's not 468 00:26:26,804 --> 00:26:30,444 Speaker 1: what happened. So let's talk about that decision to go 469 00:26:30,604 --> 00:26:32,524 Speaker 1: straight from Biden to Harris. 470 00:26:32,764 --> 00:26:37,164 Speaker 2: I advocated at the time for having a mini primary, 471 00:26:37,284 --> 00:26:39,604 Speaker 2: and some other Democrats did that as well. I think 472 00:26:39,644 --> 00:26:43,764 Speaker 2: in retrospect that was naive. Maybe not because it has 473 00:26:43,804 --> 00:26:47,724 Speaker 2: been a baddie in theory, but like in practice, you 474 00:26:47,804 --> 00:26:54,044 Speaker 2: have the vice president in a party that doesn't particularly 475 00:26:54,084 --> 00:26:59,604 Speaker 2: like nominating white men, she did a very good job 476 00:26:59,644 --> 00:27:02,364 Speaker 2: by all accounts, of understanding that Biden was in trouble 477 00:27:02,404 --> 00:27:05,884 Speaker 2: and consolidating her support and you know, having her chips 478 00:27:05,884 --> 00:27:08,364 Speaker 2: ready to cash in the minute of the cashier's window open, 479 00:27:08,364 --> 00:27:10,404 Speaker 2: maybe a few minutes beforehand. Maybe she was she was 480 00:27:10,964 --> 00:27:13,284 Speaker 2: first on the elevator to the to the to the 481 00:27:13,324 --> 00:27:16,204 Speaker 2: win cashier before even checking out of her hotel room. 482 00:27:16,244 --> 00:27:19,444 Speaker 2: Maybe inkling is something, and so you kind of have, 483 00:27:19,644 --> 00:27:23,404 Speaker 2: you know, so if you have the following options, right, 484 00:27:24,364 --> 00:27:30,764 Speaker 2: Harris wins in thirty six hours, or you have everyone 485 00:27:30,804 --> 00:27:34,004 Speaker 2: agrees that we should have this primary process, or you 486 00:27:34,084 --> 00:27:37,484 Speaker 2: have you have a week's long fight and then Harris wins. Anyway, 487 00:27:37,524 --> 00:27:39,084 Speaker 2: I mean, I think we can agree that, like the 488 00:27:39,124 --> 00:27:41,164 Speaker 2: third decision is the worst decision, and maybe the second 489 00:27:41,164 --> 00:27:43,724 Speaker 2: decision wasn't possible, therefore you get the first decision. But 490 00:27:43,804 --> 00:27:49,324 Speaker 2: again that the timing matters here. Even a few earlier 491 00:27:49,364 --> 00:27:52,604 Speaker 2: weeks of a Biden announcement might have given things people 492 00:27:52,604 --> 00:27:55,564 Speaker 2: a few more options. So I mean, this one I'm 493 00:27:55,804 --> 00:27:59,244 Speaker 2: more forgiving of. But again it comes back to Biden 494 00:28:00,444 --> 00:28:02,404 Speaker 2: should have left the race earlier, and at first of 495 00:28:02,444 --> 00:28:04,324 Speaker 2: you as well, she doesn't really have to go through 496 00:28:04,484 --> 00:28:07,164 Speaker 2: like a normal campaign, and maybe that's helpful. She won't 497 00:28:07,164 --> 00:28:10,324 Speaker 2: get enough scrutiny. July August, four and a half months 498 00:28:10,444 --> 00:28:15,084 Speaker 2: is plenty enough time for scrutiny. And her campaign kind 499 00:28:15,084 --> 00:28:16,524 Speaker 2: of ran on this premise that we can just kind 500 00:28:16,524 --> 00:28:18,844 Speaker 2: of run off the fumes of brat summer and like 501 00:28:20,284 --> 00:28:22,444 Speaker 2: and didn't find a second gear, and like again, like 502 00:28:22,564 --> 00:28:25,324 Speaker 2: the problem is, like all these fucking things are like foreseeable, 503 00:28:25,404 --> 00:28:28,164 Speaker 2: Like all these things I've like criticized in real time 504 00:28:28,324 --> 00:28:31,364 Speaker 2: and they worked out badly, and like and like you 505 00:28:31,404 --> 00:28:35,484 Speaker 2: know that she needs second gear. People gonna ask, what's 506 00:28:35,524 --> 00:28:37,924 Speaker 2: the issue? Why are you know you want change? But 507 00:28:37,964 --> 00:28:40,684 Speaker 2: you're the incumbent vice president? Like how's that work? Harris? 508 00:28:40,684 --> 00:28:42,564 Speaker 2: And like the fact that she goes on interviews and 509 00:28:42,604 --> 00:28:44,964 Speaker 2: gets asked, what's one thing you do differently than Joe Biden? 510 00:28:45,004 --> 00:28:47,124 Speaker 2: And she can't asker that fucking question, Like what the 511 00:28:47,164 --> 00:28:47,884 Speaker 2: fuck is going on? 512 00:28:48,564 --> 00:28:50,084 Speaker 1: Yeah? 513 00:28:50,244 --> 00:28:54,524 Speaker 2: Yeah, And people thought she'd be a C minus candiate 514 00:28:54,604 --> 00:28:56,804 Speaker 2: and she's been a B minus. Right, she might win 515 00:28:56,924 --> 00:28:59,644 Speaker 2: because Trump is unpopular, She'll probably have a good ground game. 516 00:29:00,164 --> 00:29:03,844 Speaker 2: Trump steps in his own shit a lot, right, But 517 00:29:03,924 --> 00:29:06,684 Speaker 2: I think you cannot like quote unquote objectively say that 518 00:29:06,764 --> 00:29:12,124 Speaker 2: she's like run a great campaign, you know, maybe a 519 00:29:12,164 --> 00:29:14,564 Speaker 2: B can eight and D campaign that averages out to 520 00:29:14,604 --> 00:29:16,884 Speaker 2: see and people, though should be worse than that. I mean, 521 00:29:17,044 --> 00:29:20,284 Speaker 2: I mean, luckily for Democrats, she certainly has improved, Like 522 00:29:20,364 --> 00:29:25,324 Speaker 2: her public speaking in like teleprompter settings, right, she was 523 00:29:25,404 --> 00:29:29,444 Speaker 2: She's a very good debater, so she has some attributes 524 00:29:29,484 --> 00:29:32,684 Speaker 2: and she and she you know, United Democrats around her. 525 00:29:32,684 --> 00:29:35,244 Speaker 2: So she's done some good things. Her convention speech was good. 526 00:29:36,684 --> 00:29:38,884 Speaker 2: But the things that are less about the candidate and 527 00:29:38,964 --> 00:29:41,964 Speaker 2: more about the campaign, and the fact that the campaign 528 00:29:42,084 --> 00:29:45,644 Speaker 2: is not prepping the candidate for that question, I just 529 00:29:45,764 --> 00:29:46,964 Speaker 2: I don't understand it. 530 00:29:47,844 --> 00:29:50,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think I think those are all valid points. 531 00:29:50,644 --> 00:29:52,964 Speaker 1: And who knows, there's still a week left. Maybe all 532 00:29:52,964 --> 00:29:55,844 Speaker 1: of a sudden we'll get clear answers, uh and and 533 00:29:55,884 --> 00:29:58,684 Speaker 1: some issues. But what about you know, we're talking a 534 00:29:58,724 --> 00:30:01,324 Speaker 1: lot about the democratic decisions, and we've talked about JD. Vance, 535 00:30:01,364 --> 00:30:04,044 Speaker 1: But what about the decision to nominate Trump? Again, Like, 536 00:30:04,124 --> 00:30:06,644 Speaker 1: what what do we think about that? Obviously we do 537 00:30:06,724 --> 00:30:08,764 Speaker 1: not know the results of the race, but you know 538 00:30:08,804 --> 00:30:13,604 Speaker 1: you just mentioned and his popularity. Good decision, bad decision there? 539 00:30:14,164 --> 00:30:16,644 Speaker 1: You know, there were other choices, And I think the 540 00:30:16,684 --> 00:30:21,564 Speaker 1: Republican Party made a very conscious decision that you know, 541 00:30:21,604 --> 00:30:24,524 Speaker 1: they were going to kind of go into the Trump direction, 542 00:30:24,644 --> 00:30:27,124 Speaker 1: the Trump camp, that they were going to be kind 543 00:30:27,124 --> 00:30:30,124 Speaker 1: of the Party of Trump instead of any number of 544 00:30:30,124 --> 00:30:34,044 Speaker 1: directions that that could have happened at that stage, especially 545 00:30:34,124 --> 00:30:37,844 Speaker 1: since he had lost the last election. So what do 546 00:30:37,884 --> 00:30:39,284 Speaker 1: we think about that and what do we think about 547 00:30:39,284 --> 00:30:41,884 Speaker 1: that decision process. That's something that is not talked about 548 00:30:41,924 --> 00:30:42,644 Speaker 1: nearly as much. 549 00:30:43,124 --> 00:30:45,404 Speaker 2: That's because it wasn't a decision. It was the voter's decision. 550 00:30:45,924 --> 00:30:48,284 Speaker 2: I mean, look, the one thing Republicans could have done 551 00:30:48,404 --> 00:30:54,804 Speaker 2: is that when Trump was impeached, they could have voted 552 00:30:54,844 --> 00:30:56,684 Speaker 2: to convict him in the Senate, in which case he 553 00:30:56,724 --> 00:30:59,164 Speaker 2: would not be eligible. You need a two thirds majorities, 554 00:30:59,204 --> 00:31:00,644 Speaker 2: you have to have a lot of Republicans come on board, 555 00:31:00,644 --> 00:31:03,244 Speaker 2: in which case he is not constitutionally eligible to be 556 00:31:03,284 --> 00:31:08,684 Speaker 2: president ever again. So that's a point at which they 557 00:31:08,684 --> 00:31:14,524 Speaker 2: could have. But like everyone ran, Mike Pence Ran, the 558 00:31:14,524 --> 00:31:16,724 Speaker 2: then popular governor of Florida run. His said, is ran, 559 00:31:17,524 --> 00:31:19,484 Speaker 2: Nikki Aleey the only half decent candidate in the bunch? 560 00:31:19,524 --> 00:31:24,684 Speaker 2: Frankly ran. It's a star studded field by objective metrics 561 00:31:24,684 --> 00:31:27,244 Speaker 2: and like, and the voters overwhelmingly picked Trump. I mean, 562 00:31:27,564 --> 00:31:32,364 Speaker 2: what Nickie win should win Vermont. There's something DC which 563 00:31:32,364 --> 00:31:33,844 Speaker 2: is better than I thought the over under it was 564 00:31:33,844 --> 00:31:38,604 Speaker 2: probably zero and a half states. So I I mean, 565 00:31:39,804 --> 00:31:41,884 Speaker 2: would they be off with a more normal candidate? I 566 00:31:41,964 --> 00:31:44,444 Speaker 2: mean yes, on the one hand, I mean when you 567 00:31:44,484 --> 00:31:48,044 Speaker 2: had Hailey versus Biden polls, Hailey and the more quality 568 00:31:48,044 --> 00:31:51,044 Speaker 2: polls was doing significantly better than Trump. At the same time, 569 00:31:51,084 --> 00:31:53,604 Speaker 2: it's a little bit like if a if a dog 570 00:31:53,684 --> 00:31:55,564 Speaker 2: had wings that could fly. I mean it's like kind 571 00:31:55,564 --> 00:31:59,924 Speaker 2: of like the Republican Party of today is not capable 572 00:32:00,604 --> 00:32:04,964 Speaker 2: of not nominating Trump if Trump is on the ballot. 573 00:32:05,724 --> 00:32:09,084 Speaker 2: I mean, it just wasn't even close in any of 574 00:32:09,084 --> 00:32:10,364 Speaker 2: these things. It's by the way, nobody trying. And you 575 00:32:10,364 --> 00:32:13,964 Speaker 2: could blame like Ron DeSantis for like being oh cozy 576 00:32:14,004 --> 00:32:15,764 Speaker 2: up to Trump and not saying bad things about it, 577 00:32:15,764 --> 00:32:19,404 Speaker 2: and then magically something happens and I win. I mean, 578 00:32:19,444 --> 00:32:23,924 Speaker 2: he has an aged well his strategy, but like it 579 00:32:24,044 --> 00:32:25,404 Speaker 2: just what, it's what the voters decided. 580 00:32:26,284 --> 00:32:29,484 Speaker 1: No, I I right, obviously, I was just kind of 581 00:32:29,524 --> 00:32:33,284 Speaker 1: talking about earlier kind of rallying around Trump and like 582 00:32:33,324 --> 00:32:36,004 Speaker 1: deciding that this was, you know, this was the way 583 00:32:36,004 --> 00:32:38,564 Speaker 1: to go, rather than kind of trying to distance themselves 584 00:32:38,644 --> 00:32:42,164 Speaker 1: from Trump way back when after January sixth, after you know, 585 00:32:42,364 --> 00:32:44,684 Speaker 1: or even you know, the impeachment, as you said, like, 586 00:32:44,724 --> 00:32:47,364 Speaker 1: there were points in time where I think the party 587 00:32:47,364 --> 00:32:50,484 Speaker 1: could have made different decisions in to not And we'll 588 00:32:50,484 --> 00:32:52,124 Speaker 1: see how that turns out. But I think that that 589 00:32:52,284 --> 00:32:56,084 Speaker 1: is that does say something. So I think where we 590 00:32:56,284 --> 00:32:58,924 Speaker 1: come out on this is that it's complicated. Right, As 591 00:32:58,964 --> 00:33:01,444 Speaker 1: with everything, there are lots of good and bad decisions. 592 00:33:01,484 --> 00:33:04,644 Speaker 1: But if Kamala Harris loses the election next week, I 593 00:33:04,644 --> 00:33:08,364 Speaker 1: think we've crowned the single worst decision. This will be 594 00:33:08,444 --> 00:33:13,524 Speaker 1: squarely on President Biden's shoulders for not deciding to step 595 00:33:13,684 --> 00:33:16,924 Speaker 1: away from the race and say that he was not 596 00:33:17,004 --> 00:33:19,044 Speaker 1: going to be running for a second term. Do you 597 00:33:19,044 --> 00:33:19,604 Speaker 1: agree with that? 598 00:33:20,884 --> 00:33:26,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, That's the core fact of his campaign. 599 00:33:26,524 --> 00:33:29,924 Speaker 2: And you know, it's not as though people thought Harros 600 00:33:30,004 --> 00:33:31,444 Speaker 2: was a great candidate before and look, they did make 601 00:33:31,484 --> 00:33:34,084 Speaker 2: that decision, right right. I mean, so Biden running was 602 00:33:34,124 --> 00:33:35,804 Speaker 2: the worst decision. Replacing him was the best decision by 603 00:33:35,804 --> 00:33:40,164 Speaker 2: either party in the campaign. Trump's worst decision, I guess 604 00:33:40,244 --> 00:33:43,524 Speaker 2: JD Van Actually maybe maybe the campaign the convention speech 605 00:33:43,564 --> 00:33:46,484 Speaker 2: where he had just gotten assassinated in the first half 606 00:33:46,484 --> 00:33:52,004 Speaker 2: an hour of the convention different a softer side of Trump, 607 00:33:52,404 --> 00:33:58,724 Speaker 2: and then he just rambles for an hour, right, you know. 608 00:33:59,004 --> 00:34:01,484 Speaker 2: I you know, he wasn't very prep for the debate 609 00:34:01,524 --> 00:34:05,884 Speaker 2: with Harris. Maybe he shouldn't have accepted this early debate 610 00:34:05,924 --> 00:34:08,164 Speaker 2: from Biden because that gave Biden a chance to skate 611 00:34:08,244 --> 00:34:10,884 Speaker 2: free her Democrats chance to skate free from Biden. So 612 00:34:10,924 --> 00:34:14,444 Speaker 2: I don't think it's it's not a campaign where you 613 00:34:14,484 --> 00:34:18,204 Speaker 2: would go and give everyone high marks. 614 00:34:18,484 --> 00:34:21,804 Speaker 1: Yeah. So I think that with the Harris campaign, with 615 00:34:21,804 --> 00:34:24,924 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, we have one clear absolute worst decision 616 00:34:25,204 --> 00:34:28,004 Speaker 1: and one clear best decision. With a Trump campaign, we 617 00:34:28,084 --> 00:34:31,004 Speaker 1: have a lot of bad decisions, but unclear which one is, 618 00:34:31,044 --> 00:34:33,724 Speaker 1: like the worst decision. They didn't do anything as a 619 00:34:33,924 --> 00:34:38,564 Speaker 1: gregious as the Democratic camp when it came to you know, 620 00:34:38,604 --> 00:34:41,404 Speaker 1: when it came to the Biden decision. But let's see 621 00:34:41,404 --> 00:34:42,844 Speaker 1: what happens. Let's see what happens. 622 00:34:43,484 --> 00:34:46,484 Speaker 2: Yeah, we can brow there. It's still approximately fifty to fifty. 623 00:34:46,284 --> 00:34:49,324 Speaker 1: Race and it's still yep, it's still approximately fifty to fifty. 624 00:34:49,444 --> 00:34:52,204 Speaker 1: So after the break night. Let's uh, let's talk quickly 625 00:34:52,204 --> 00:34:53,244 Speaker 1: about the model quick. 626 00:34:53,044 --> 00:34:56,484 Speaker 2: Break and then a quickie little model horse race segment. 627 00:35:14,444 --> 00:35:17,764 Speaker 1: All right, one week to go, Nate, What are the 628 00:35:17,804 --> 00:35:21,244 Speaker 1: models saying? I know we're fifty to fifty, but are 629 00:35:21,284 --> 00:35:24,084 Speaker 1: you seeing movement? Are you seeing any anything important? Kind 630 00:35:24,084 --> 00:35:26,164 Speaker 1: of where where are we and what's happening? 631 00:35:27,324 --> 00:35:30,244 Speaker 2: Valleatest numbers Tamala Harris. 632 00:35:32,444 --> 00:35:34,764 Speaker 1: Every time you need, you need to get a new 633 00:35:34,844 --> 00:35:35,324 Speaker 1: voice going. 634 00:35:35,364 --> 00:35:39,964 Speaker 2: I love Kamala Harris has a forty five point three 635 00:35:40,244 --> 00:35:42,964 Speaker 2: percent chance of winning the electoral college. 636 00:35:43,204 --> 00:35:45,564 Speaker 1: Are you trying to be the AI version of yourself? 637 00:35:45,964 --> 00:35:48,444 Speaker 2: You see, you have these automated we're dating ourselves as 638 00:35:48,444 --> 00:35:53,604 Speaker 2: automated and a seventy one point four percent probability of 639 00:35:53,644 --> 00:35:57,724 Speaker 2: winning the popular vote. It's basically fifty five forty five 640 00:35:58,404 --> 00:36:00,884 Speaker 2: Trump or fifty four forty five with a small chance 641 00:36:00,924 --> 00:36:05,284 Speaker 2: of a tie. Um, it's been a little weird. I mean, look, 642 00:36:06,604 --> 00:36:10,964 Speaker 2: it's gradually drifted to Trump over actually a fairly long 643 00:36:11,004 --> 00:36:13,284 Speaker 2: period now. And you know, two and every three days 644 00:36:13,284 --> 00:36:16,884 Speaker 2: Harris has lost ground on the forecast since since roughly 645 00:36:17,004 --> 00:36:21,484 Speaker 2: early October. You know, it looks like you could stabilize 646 00:36:22,124 --> 00:36:23,764 Speaker 2: a bit. Maybe I don't think we're gonna don'tink we're 647 00:36:23,764 --> 00:36:26,564 Speaker 2: gonn gonna learn very much in this last week of 648 00:36:26,604 --> 00:36:31,364 Speaker 2: the polling. In fact, I kind of trust polsters lest this. 649 00:36:31,444 --> 00:36:33,884 Speaker 2: They all every time a polster, Oh, every state is 650 00:36:34,644 --> 00:36:38,204 Speaker 2: is just plus one, every little every single state to tie. No, 651 00:36:38,284 --> 00:36:41,164 Speaker 2: you're fucking hurting, you're cheating, you're cheating. Your demos aren't 652 00:36:41,164 --> 00:36:43,524 Speaker 2: all gonna come out at exactly one point leads when 653 00:36:43,564 --> 00:36:46,084 Speaker 2: you're sampling eight hundred people over dozens of surveys. You 654 00:36:46,124 --> 00:36:48,204 Speaker 2: are lying. You're putting a fucking figure on the scale. 655 00:36:48,284 --> 00:36:50,324 Speaker 2: I will not name names, but some pulsters are really 656 00:36:50,324 --> 00:36:53,884 Speaker 2: bad about this, all these all these gop leaning for 657 00:36:53,924 --> 00:36:56,644 Speaker 2: it's always, oh, we're not going on too far on 658 00:36:56,644 --> 00:36:58,604 Speaker 2: a limb. Trump. It's just Trump plus one in Pennsylvania 659 00:36:58,604 --> 00:37:01,084 Speaker 2: every fucking single time. No, it's how fucking polling works. 660 00:37:01,844 --> 00:37:05,364 Speaker 2: That's not how that's not how polling is supposed to work. 661 00:37:05,404 --> 00:37:06,204 Speaker 2: There's a margin of. 662 00:37:06,364 --> 00:37:10,404 Speaker 1: Tell us how you really feel, so you get. 663 00:37:10,324 --> 00:37:12,604 Speaker 2: Hurting and like everyone just saw well, I mean, basically, 664 00:37:12,604 --> 00:37:15,604 Speaker 2: the posters are fifty to fifty is a forecast, because 665 00:37:15,604 --> 00:37:17,604 Speaker 2: not all base rates are fifty to fifty, right, The 666 00:37:17,644 --> 00:37:19,764 Speaker 2: posters are just fucking punting, except the New York Times, 667 00:37:19,764 --> 00:37:23,284 Speaker 2: it actually has balls, right, The polster's just fucking punting 668 00:37:23,604 --> 00:37:25,164 Speaker 2: on this election for the most part. I mean not 669 00:37:25,204 --> 00:37:26,804 Speaker 2: just the New York Times. There are some of the 670 00:37:26,804 --> 00:37:30,044 Speaker 2: other high quality polls will actually publish numbers that surprise 671 00:37:30,124 --> 00:37:32,764 Speaker 2: you once in a while. If a polster never publishes 672 00:37:32,764 --> 00:37:35,004 Speaker 2: the numbers that surprises you, then it has no value. 673 00:37:35,164 --> 00:37:37,844 Speaker 2: Information that has no potential to be surprising has no value. 674 00:37:37,884 --> 00:37:40,444 Speaker 2: Should already be kind of like priced into your worldview. 675 00:37:40,524 --> 00:37:43,244 Speaker 2: We're kind of priced into like the model in my case, 676 00:37:43,284 --> 00:37:45,284 Speaker 2: the model lab become one in the last week of 677 00:37:45,284 --> 00:37:51,604 Speaker 2: the election. But look, all seven swing states are still 678 00:37:51,644 --> 00:37:54,484 Speaker 2: polling within it looks like a point and half here. 679 00:37:54,524 --> 00:37:57,684 Speaker 2: Maybe Trump's leads up to almost two points in Arizona. Yeah, 680 00:37:57,724 --> 00:37:59,764 Speaker 2: two points in Aeras. So everything's pulling within two points. 681 00:38:00,844 --> 00:38:02,244 Speaker 2: And Hare's got a good poll in Arizona that we 682 00:38:02,244 --> 00:38:06,924 Speaker 2: haven't encounted for yet, right, so within two points. Doesn't 683 00:38:06,924 --> 00:38:09,364 Speaker 2: take a genius to know that if every swing states 684 00:38:09,524 --> 00:38:14,724 Speaker 2: a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie. You know, 685 00:38:14,804 --> 00:38:16,844 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania is at one state though, if you just add 686 00:38:16,924 --> 00:38:20,964 Speaker 2: up the states where where Harris leads then she is 687 00:38:21,084 --> 00:38:25,004 Speaker 2: one state short. She is zero point four points behind 688 00:38:25,484 --> 00:38:29,444 Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania. And guess who is the governor of Pennsylvania. 689 00:38:29,484 --> 00:38:33,484 Speaker 1: Maria start with an s. 690 00:38:35,164 --> 00:38:40,324 Speaker 2: John Fetterman, No, he's a center from Pennsylvania. Uh, Bob 691 00:38:40,404 --> 00:38:43,484 Speaker 2: Casey No. The other say two senators Actually in every 692 00:38:43,844 --> 00:38:47,364 Speaker 2: if the polls are exactly right, then actually, uh, it 693 00:38:47,404 --> 00:38:49,604 Speaker 2: says even in Nevada. So then Nevada is tied. I 694 00:38:49,644 --> 00:38:52,004 Speaker 2: don't know what happens there. They go play roulette. I 695 00:38:52,004 --> 00:38:56,444 Speaker 2: think is the rule of Nevada if it's tied, and uh, 696 00:38:56,844 --> 00:38:58,684 Speaker 2: but Harris would come up one state short, and that 697 00:38:58,724 --> 00:39:01,884 Speaker 2: state's name is Pensylvania. But again, so if you're if 698 00:39:01,884 --> 00:39:04,204 Speaker 2: you really are going over it with like an incredible precision, 699 00:39:04,244 --> 00:39:05,924 Speaker 2: but you don't want to have that precision. Anyone who 700 00:39:05,964 --> 00:39:09,244 Speaker 2: says that they know what's happening is is just is 701 00:39:09,924 --> 00:39:13,524 Speaker 2: they're guessing. And half the fucking pundit industry just kind 702 00:39:13,564 --> 00:39:15,644 Speaker 2: of they've always been on red, been on red or 703 00:39:15,644 --> 00:39:18,204 Speaker 2: been on blue every time, and like and they just 704 00:39:18,244 --> 00:39:21,964 Speaker 2: always make the same fucking debt and rationalize blues lucky. Well, 705 00:39:22,004 --> 00:39:23,564 Speaker 2: you know it's blues turn Now I have blues on 706 00:39:23,604 --> 00:39:26,524 Speaker 2: a Wayne Streak, and half the time they're right, and 707 00:39:26,524 --> 00:39:28,324 Speaker 2: they're like, oh my god, I'm a God's gift to 708 00:39:28,404 --> 00:39:33,124 Speaker 2: fucking election prognostication. Anyway, nobody knows anything. 709 00:39:33,844 --> 00:39:37,284 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean, I'm in Nevada right now, and 710 00:39:37,324 --> 00:39:39,844 Speaker 1: I'm actually you know, looking at the at the updates, 711 00:39:40,284 --> 00:39:43,764 Speaker 1: and the Republicans are ahead in early mail in voting. 712 00:39:43,804 --> 00:39:46,084 Speaker 1: It looks like Clark County, which is supposed to be, 713 00:39:46,324 --> 00:39:48,084 Speaker 1: which is where I live, which is the kind of 714 00:39:48,124 --> 00:39:52,004 Speaker 1: democratic wall. The mail in ballot rates are not good, 715 00:39:52,884 --> 00:39:55,924 Speaker 1: and so you know, and both Trump and Harris are 716 00:39:55,924 --> 00:40:01,884 Speaker 1: coming here on Thursday, so stay inside, don't drive anywhere 717 00:40:01,884 --> 00:40:02,564 Speaker 1: on Thursday. 718 00:40:02,884 --> 00:40:04,884 Speaker 2: Why is that you're at the fucking airport in Vegas? 719 00:40:05,044 --> 00:40:07,804 Speaker 2: Like I love Vegas, but like why because there's lots 720 00:40:07,804 --> 00:40:09,924 Speaker 2: of Campagig events there. Why is the the airport's so 721 00:40:09,964 --> 00:40:11,324 Speaker 2: weird about this ground stop ship? 722 00:40:11,604 --> 00:40:14,204 Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know, but I made the mistake of 723 00:40:14,244 --> 00:40:16,764 Speaker 1: flying out one day when one of the candidates I 724 00:40:16,764 --> 00:40:19,964 Speaker 1: don't remember which was flying in and basically missed my 725 00:40:20,004 --> 00:40:24,044 Speaker 1: flight because there was no going in or out of 726 00:40:24,044 --> 00:40:26,804 Speaker 1: the airports and nothing whatsoever could be done about it. 727 00:40:27,524 --> 00:40:29,924 Speaker 1: So so yeah, so so those are those are always 728 00:40:29,964 --> 00:40:33,604 Speaker 1: fun moments. But yeah, it's it's close, it's it's a 729 00:40:33,604 --> 00:40:37,644 Speaker 1: complete toss up, and I'm I'm glad that you are 730 00:40:37,924 --> 00:40:41,564 Speaker 1: that your model with which you are one agrees with 731 00:40:41,604 --> 00:40:44,444 Speaker 1: that because that's exactly what it feels like here. And 732 00:40:44,844 --> 00:40:46,564 Speaker 1: I did think it was interesting by the way that 733 00:40:46,604 --> 00:40:49,764 Speaker 1: they're both coming here as opposed to one of the 734 00:40:49,804 --> 00:40:54,284 Speaker 1: other battleground states on Thursday. But but I guess that 735 00:40:54,364 --> 00:40:56,244 Speaker 1: goes to show that, yeah, when you're when you're short, 736 00:40:56,244 --> 00:40:59,564 Speaker 1: you're trying to really rally those undecided voters and they 737 00:40:59,604 --> 00:41:03,604 Speaker 1: definitely exist here. But yeah, let's let's see what happens 738 00:41:04,364 --> 00:41:08,364 Speaker 1: next week. We'll actually be doing two episodes, so we'll 739 00:41:08,404 --> 00:41:11,204 Speaker 1: be dropping and episode for you right before the election 740 00:41:11,404 --> 00:41:15,044 Speaker 1: on Monday, so stay tuned. We'll be be doing some 741 00:41:15,364 --> 00:41:18,604 Speaker 1: real time visits to see what's happening with the election. 742 00:41:19,564 --> 00:41:23,124 Speaker 1: But I think I would like to end today, and Nate, 743 00:41:23,364 --> 00:41:25,204 Speaker 1: you can, you can end it however you want, but 744 00:41:25,244 --> 00:41:28,124 Speaker 1: I would like to say, please, please, please, especially if 745 00:41:28,124 --> 00:41:29,684 Speaker 1: you're in a swing state, but everywhere I just go 746 00:41:29,724 --> 00:41:32,924 Speaker 1: out and vote. Please do that. I think that it's 747 00:41:33,324 --> 00:41:40,044 Speaker 1: incredibly important exercise your right to vote. And yeah, that 748 00:41:40,204 --> 00:41:42,644 Speaker 1: I think is a really important message for this week. 749 00:41:44,284 --> 00:41:46,764 Speaker 2: Go out and vote. Don't don't. Don't let more money 750 00:41:46,764 --> 00:41:48,284 Speaker 2: of the campaigns. They can't do anything with it at 751 00:41:48,284 --> 00:41:50,844 Speaker 2: this point. I'm serious, like, yeah, save it for like 752 00:41:50,924 --> 00:41:55,244 Speaker 2: a good cause that that money will do nothing for 753 00:41:55,324 --> 00:41:57,204 Speaker 2: any candidate you're voting for. If you have to donate, 754 00:41:57,244 --> 00:42:00,284 Speaker 2: donate to a local race, right, so vote. I agree 755 00:42:00,284 --> 00:42:03,684 Speaker 2: with that, Maria, But save your money for a good cause, 756 00:42:04,324 --> 00:42:04,764 Speaker 2: all right. 757 00:42:05,244 --> 00:42:07,724 Speaker 1: And on that note, let's see what happens next week. 758 00:42:13,684 --> 00:42:15,804 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 759 00:42:15,884 --> 00:42:21,364 Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. 760 00:42:21,444 --> 00:42:24,884 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kondikova. 761 00:42:24,164 --> 00:42:25,484 Speaker 2: And byby Nate Silver. 762 00:42:25,884 --> 00:42:29,404 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 763 00:42:29,924 --> 00:42:33,484 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 764 00:42:33,564 --> 00:42:37,124 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 765 00:42:37,684 --> 00:42:39,844 Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us 766 00:42:39,844 --> 00:42:41,924 Speaker 2: so other people can find us too. And if you 767 00:42:41,924 --> 00:42:44,284 Speaker 2: want to listen to an AD free version, sign up 768 00:42:44,324 --> 00:42:46,884 Speaker 2: for Pushkin Plus. For six, ten and nine a month 769 00:42:46,924 --> 00:42:49,684 Speaker 2: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in. 770 00:42:50,804 --> 00:42:50,844 Speaker 1: T