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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. It's UFC Betting preview

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Speaker 3: for UFC three oh nine. We're back on YouTube this

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Speaker 3: week and I will be filling in.

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Speaker 4: As your host.

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Speaker 3: I'm Billy Ward, joined by special guest John lenn Franca

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Speaker 3: to break down all of the action at UFC three

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Speaker 3: oh nine. Before we get there, Action Network boxing expert

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Speaker 3: Brian Fonsaka joins us to preview Tyson versus Paul. Brian,

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Speaker 3: how you doing.

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Speaker 5: I'm weirdly kind of excited for this bullshit. I mean.

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Speaker 6: Like it's gotta where I'm at, but very excited for

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Speaker 6: the co feature as well. Katie Taylor mana SROUNDO two

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Speaker 6: is gonna be It's gonna be great. But yeah, we're

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Speaker 6: finally here after months and months and months.

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Speaker 5: Jake Paul vers Mike Tyson.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's start with that code feature. Give us a

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Speaker 3: quick rundown and how you're betting that one?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So the co feature, for people who don't know

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Speaker 6: Katie Taylor man of SROUNDO two is going to be

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Speaker 6: the best fight on this card, or at least it

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Speaker 6: should be Their fight in twenty twenty two was a

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Speaker 6: Fight of the Year contender. It sold out Madison Square Garden.

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Speaker 6: It was literally, or legitimately rather an instant classic, and

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Speaker 6: Katie Taylor won.

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Speaker 5: It was a split decision. It was debatable.

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Speaker 6: I kind of leaned a man of Serrano, but I

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Speaker 6: can see how you get to Katie Taylor winning considering

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Speaker 6: that her boxing, particularly toward the end of the fight

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Speaker 6: was cleaner. Katie Taylor is a counter puncher who likes

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Speaker 6: to move around the ring, use the ring, and is very,

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Speaker 6: very quick and accurate. Man of Serrano is one of

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Speaker 6: the best pressure fighters really in boxing history, who will

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Speaker 6: walk you down the entire fight. Now, it's a gamble

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Speaker 6: because she takes a lot of hits with that, but

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Speaker 6: she has a lot of punching volume, a lot of

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Speaker 6: different combinations of punches, and doesn't ignore the body. She's

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Speaker 6: an excellent body puncher as well. For this fight, Amanda

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Speaker 6: Serrano's been the underdog up until like these last couple

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Speaker 6: of days, and now she's moved into I'm looking at

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Speaker 6: minus one sixty four minus one sixty five, which is

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Speaker 6: just a big swing, but I think it might just

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Speaker 6: be a lot of people who are like who.

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Speaker 5: Is Shake Paul representing? Like who does he manage?

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Speaker 6: And just betting on Amanda Serrano. And if anyone's gonna

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Speaker 6: be biased toward a Manda Serrano, it's me. Because she

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Speaker 6: grew up in Bushwick. I grew up in Ridgewood. These

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Speaker 6: are two neighborhoods in New York City right next to

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Speaker 6: each other. She's one of the first fighters that added

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Speaker 6: a profile on when I was writing a newspaper, when

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Speaker 6: I was writing at a newspaper and met up with

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Speaker 6: her in the neighborhood to give her the physical newspaper,

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Speaker 6: like we go back. But I still kind of lean

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Speaker 6: Katie Taylor for this one because this is going to

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Speaker 6: be at one hundred forty pounds. Katie Taylor is the

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Speaker 6: Understreeted Champion at one hundred and forty pounds. She was

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Speaker 6: the Understreeted Champion at one hundred thirty five pounds when

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Speaker 6: they fought the first time at Amanda Torano was coming

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Speaker 6: up from one twenty six two one thirty five and

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Speaker 6: she fought recently at the one forty pound weight limit,

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Speaker 6: although she weighed at one thirty six and she fought

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Speaker 6: Stevie Morgan, who put together maybe the worst performance that

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Speaker 6: you'll see at a big time fight, Like it was awful,

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Speaker 6: and a man of surroundos just got her out of

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Speaker 6: there in two rounds. So I don't make much of

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Speaker 6: that performance. But to me, like Katie Taylor just has

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Speaker 6: more ways to win the weight. It's going to be

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Speaker 6: a factor, and the fact that she's a little bit

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Speaker 6: better defensively, maybe more than a little bit, is going

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Speaker 6: to be something that tilted in her favor. Unless you know,

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Speaker 6: it's tenfoil hat time and we try to give this

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Speaker 6: one to Serrano perhaps so that there could be a

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Speaker 6: trilogy and a lot of money on the trilogy, So

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Speaker 6: I wouldn't ignore that, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, So sondbook, we're taking the money line on Katie

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Speaker 3: Taylor in the co Maine.

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Speaker 6: Event, oh, specifically by decision specifically.

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Speaker 4: With it.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, that's plus one sixty now at one spot.

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Speaker 6: It was minus one ten when I grabbed it earlier

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Speaker 6: this week, So I'm gonna I feel like I have

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Speaker 6: to double back now. And I would also say, because

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Speaker 6: this fight is going to be very close, uh, you

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Speaker 6: have to you have to take a draw. Seriously, this

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Speaker 6: plus sixteen hundred, I'm looking at it right now, and

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Speaker 6: I've already like put a little something on it. But

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Speaker 6: the draw is going to be very like, very very

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Speaker 6: much within the realm of possibility for this fight. Whenever

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Speaker 6: there's a fight that's this potentially close and it's already

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Speaker 6: been very close, like the draw something you just have

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Speaker 6: to sprinkle on.

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Speaker 5: I feel like, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, so I've got a similar thought on the main event,

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Speaker 3: but you walk me through what you're thinking first, then

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Speaker 3: I'll jump in with how I'm betting that one.

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Speaker 5: I've gone back and forth with this a lot.

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Speaker 6: This is kind of a head versus hard situation because

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Speaker 6: my head is like Jake Paul's younger and should win

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Speaker 6: this fight. Uh, And it's probably not like I don't

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Speaker 6: know if he's getting drug tested, but like I would

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Speaker 6: think that, like you know, I mean, Billy, you know this,

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Speaker 6: Like it's kind of hard to put out all that weight,

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Speaker 6: you know from the fight, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 5: And granted, he didn't have to.

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Speaker 6: Cut this time, so maybe that's just the difference is

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Speaker 6: that he had been cutting to get to two hundred

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Speaker 6: his last couple fight, the cruiser weight weight limit in boxing,

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Speaker 6: and now he didn't have to cut, so maybe like,

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Speaker 6: you know, this is a little bit more natural for him.

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Speaker 6: And then also Mike Tyson, like you know, my head

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Speaker 6: has been saying Jake Paul's probably gonna win this or

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Speaker 6: should win this, and with Mike Tyson, it's like you

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Speaker 6: kind of just want to see him kick his ass,

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Speaker 6: if totally honest, but to me, like one bet that

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Speaker 6: I actually liked was Jake Paul to get knocked down

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Speaker 6: and win, which is still plus four p fifty. It

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Speaker 6: was a little bit better other than that earlier this week,

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Speaker 6: and you and I were talking about this the other day.

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Speaker 6: It's like Mike Tyson has still now currently more power

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Speaker 6: than Jake Paul's ever seen because Jake Paul's been fighting

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Speaker 6: former UFC welterweights for like a good portion of his

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Speaker 6: career and now he's fighting like one of the best

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Speaker 6: heavyweight boxers of all time, who granted he looked washed

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Speaker 6: twenty years ago, but still like it's gonna be fourteen

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Speaker 6: ounce gloves, it's gonna be two minute rounds. And the

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Speaker 6: stamina concerns that I have for Mike Tyson, I mean

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Speaker 6: I have stamnt of concerns for Jake Paul too, because

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Speaker 6: I've seen him get winded at the end of like

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Speaker 6: round two or round three against Mike Perry, you know,

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Speaker 6: and Mike Tyson is a different type of dude, Like

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Speaker 6: he's he's older, he's almost sixty, so it's gonna have

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Speaker 6: to be short bursts, you know, in terms of his explosiveness.

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Speaker 6: And there's a non zero chance that he limps off

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Speaker 6: at the end of round two because he just you know,

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Speaker 6: he's just injured because he's older, and this fight goes

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Speaker 6: to not even a technical decision, it's just a no contest,

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Speaker 6: and then we might have to do this again.

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Speaker 5: But to me, like Jake Paul to get knocked down

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Speaker 5: and win.

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Speaker 6: I looked at, you know, parlaying at least one knockdown

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Speaker 6: and putting that into parlay maybe with some UFC stuff

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Speaker 6: actually or some other boxing stuff this weekend.

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Speaker 5: Two knockdowns was interesting to me.

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Speaker 6: Maybe that's a little ambitious, but that has some plus

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Speaker 6: money right now, so that's looking pretty good. I do

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Speaker 6: think Jake Paul should win this, and I feel like

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Speaker 6: if Mike Tyson does, it has to be by knockout.

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Speaker 5: I don't think Mike Tyson's gonna win on points.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I definitely tailed your to be knocked down

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Speaker 3: and win. That was how I bet Tyson fury when

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Speaker 3: he fought Francis and Naganu, so I was kind of

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Speaker 3: seeing a similar vibe here. The other one I really

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Speaker 3: like is Jake Paul by decision at plus three twenty.

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Speaker 3: I got it at I think Paul kind of carries

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Speaker 3: Tyson here. I don't think he's coming out trying to

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Speaker 3: kill him. I know he slapped him and they're doing

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Speaker 3: a whole thing. I don't personally believe any of that.

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Speaker 3: I think we're just out here selling a fight. Jake

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Speaker 3: Paul is a good boxer, but he's a great businessman,

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Speaker 3: and it's not good for business to be hurting or

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Speaker 3: brutally knocking out a fifty eight year old multi time grandfather.

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Speaker 3: So I expect Jake Paul to come out here, dance around,

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Speaker 3: avoid the power, jab him on the outside. They'll get

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Speaker 3: in there and mix it up a little bit, but

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Speaker 3: he's not really trying to kill him. That's plus three twenty.

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Speaker 3: I can't believe that line is that long, So that's

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Speaker 3: my favorite bet for it. It's a little bit on

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Speaker 3: the conspiracy theory side, but it is what it is.

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Speaker 3: Given the two minute rounds, the big puffy gloves, and

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Speaker 3: the business elements of it.

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Speaker 4: I think that's the way to play it.

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Speaker 6: Tyson is at least giving off that he's taking this seriously.

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Speaker 6: You know, Like I heard the story again about how

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Speaker 6: somebody said when he's like there were times where he's

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Speaker 6: done interviews in the past, and he's trying to channel

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Speaker 6: that again where he would, like before fights, cry for

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Speaker 6: his opponents, allegedly because he knew he was going to

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Speaker 6: destroy them, which I don't.

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Speaker 5: Look, I don't.

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Speaker 6: I'm sure that mentally, let's say, let's say this is

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Speaker 6: not a conspiracy. Mentally, I'm sure he could get back

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Speaker 6: to this to this place. But physically, I mean, we're

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Speaker 6: this is a long This is a long time, like

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Speaker 6: Kevin McBride was nineteen years ago, and if you see

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Speaker 6: how we looked in that fight, it's just it's tough.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 6: Granted, he looked better than I expected against Roy Jones

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Speaker 6: Junior in that exhibition that I don't know how many

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Speaker 6: people watched on Triller remember that a few years ago,

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Speaker 6: when like when COVID was COVID like the real shit,

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Speaker 6: But like, I don't know, Like this is also I

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Speaker 6: will say this to people like be cautious about spending

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Speaker 6: a lot of money on betting on this fight because

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Speaker 6: this is just this is this conspiracy theory like type

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Speaker 6: of like this is too much of a circus to

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Speaker 6: bet like a serious amount of money on. Like no

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Speaker 6: bet that I placed is going to be for more

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Speaker 6: than like maybe a third of a unit because there's

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Speaker 6: just so many, so many things I can go left

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Speaker 6: with this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I mean, there's always great advice in combat

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Speaker 3: sports because this is the most ridiculous spectacle across the board,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, especially this one. All Right, thanks Brian, definitely

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Speaker 3: will be tailing your picks there and we'll talk to

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Speaker 3: you soon in see outlet.

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Speaker 5: All right, thanks, appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome in John, you know him as

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Speaker 3: Johnny L Football on Twitter and filling in for Shan

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Speaker 3: Zula this week to break down UFC three oh nine.

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Speaker 3: The main event is John Jones for Steve A. Meochiic.

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Speaker 3: This was originally booked to happen last year at the

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Speaker 3: Madison Square Gardens card John Jones got hurt.

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Speaker 4: It got the lad a year. We're doing it now.

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Speaker 3: John Jones going off as a heavy favorite against Meo

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Speaker 3: chich Meo. Chick is forty two years old, hasn't fought

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Speaker 3: in three years. The last time we saw him, he

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Speaker 3: was getting brutally knocked out by Francis and Gano, And

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Speaker 3: for some reason he's getting.

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Speaker 4: The heavyweight title fight here. I know it's the main event.

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Speaker 3: I know it's what we're supposed to be talking about

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Speaker 3: for the extended period of time here. I'm not that

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Speaker 3: interested in this one. I like John Jones by knockout

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Speaker 3: at plus one thirty five. Stepe has always been hard

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Speaker 3: to submit. I don't see John Jones submitting him. I

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Speaker 3: also don't see this one going a full twenty five minutes.

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Speaker 3: Give him the dynamics. One other fun bet I like

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Speaker 3: on this though, is a point to be deducted at

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Speaker 3: plus two thousand.

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Speaker 4: I'm putting one tenth of a unit on that.

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Speaker 3: The UFC came out with these new gloves they're supposed

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Speaker 3: to stop ipokes, didn't really do a great job of that.

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Speaker 3: All the fighters complained they went back to the old gloves.

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Speaker 3: John Jones is the most prolific I poker ever to

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Speaker 3: exist in combat sports. It's his primary weapon. He's got

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Speaker 3: a huge reach. He just stands there with his fingers out.

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Speaker 3: Twenty to one is pretty long odds on that we're

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Speaker 3: relying on revs actually taking a point or calling a

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Speaker 3: foul on the UFC, which is never never a comfortable

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Speaker 3: feeling because normally they just let you cheat as much

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Speaker 3: as you want. With that said, it's a fun that

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Speaker 3: it's twenty to one odds. That's the little strength I'm

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Speaker 3: going to take. What do you got on this one, John,

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Speaker 3: how are you seeing it?

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Speaker 7: Well?

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Speaker 1: I want to get my John Jones fun fact out

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Speaker 1: of the way. I was at at UFC eighty seven

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Speaker 1: in attendance when he made his debut on the undercard

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Speaker 1: against Andre Guzmal.

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Speaker 7: No one knew who.

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Speaker 1: This guy was, just an athletic prospect. So I was

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Speaker 1: there and so I kind of followed his rise and was,

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Speaker 1: you know, was more of a fan than probably I

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Speaker 1: am now. But I see this really going two ways.

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Speaker 1: And while I like Jones to win, I think of

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Speaker 1: what you said is accurate that it has to be

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Speaker 1: fairly early. I mean, if Miochis doesn't have the chin

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Speaker 1: to hold up, you know, if his cardio has fallen off. Basically,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys on this card where we

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Speaker 1: haven't seen in a while, and there's just that variable

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Speaker 1: of you know, is their chin gone?

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Speaker 7: Is there Cardio gone?

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Speaker 1: The older I mean older fire fighters on the brink

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Speaker 1: of retirement. So I'm betting John Jones on them duel

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Speaker 1: minus one forty five to win in rounds one, two,

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Speaker 1: or three. If that doesn't happen, as crazy as it sounds,

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Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna sprinkle a little bit, probably, like you said,

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Speaker 1: a tenth of a unit on steep A by decision

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Speaker 1: at fifteen to one on FanDuel, just in case Jones

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Speaker 1: is a little bit slower. We didn't really learn anything

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Speaker 1: about his striking at heavyweight.

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Speaker 7: If you do like Jones, I.

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Speaker 1: Think it's better that he's at two thirty five now

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Speaker 1: in comparison to two forty eight which he was against

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Speaker 1: Sarah O Gone. Like I said, we didn't learn really

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Speaker 1: anything in that fight. Let's say you just can stand

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Speaker 1: on the outside, dance around, you know, avoid some of

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Speaker 1: the takedowns, probably won't avoid all of them, and the

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Speaker 1: Jones gets tired. I mean, we haven't never seen really

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Speaker 1: extended at this weight class. So what if he gets

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Speaker 1: tired in three, four or five and steep A steals

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Speaker 1: a decision I don't think as likely about fifteen to one.

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Speaker 7: I'm gonna take a shot at it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the one, two or three. I did

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Speaker 3: the full fight breakdown to this one. It'll be up

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Speaker 3: on Action Network dot Com. I said in the betting section,

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Speaker 3: I was either going Jones by knockout or Jones in

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Speaker 3: the first three. Ultimately went with the knockout just because

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Speaker 3: we're getting a better price. But I think those are

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Speaker 3: both pretty solid calls. And yeah, Stepe by decision. You know,

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Speaker 3: heavyweight fights often end early or not at all as

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Speaker 3: the big guys get tired, so that does make a

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Speaker 3: lot of sense to me. Let's move on to the

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Speaker 3: co main event. It is the rematch that I don't

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Speaker 3: think too many people asked for between Charles OLIVERA and

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Speaker 3: Michael Chandler. Oliver about three years ago finished Chandler in

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Speaker 3: the second round in defense of his then lightweight championship.

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Speaker 3: Now Oliver is trying to work his way back to

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Speaker 3: a title fight. We were trying to get Chandler versus

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Speaker 3: McGregor that obviously didn't happen. Kind of just threw these

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Speaker 3: guys together in want of better opponents for either of them.

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Speaker 4: Pretty standard matchup.

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Speaker 3: We've got Charles Oliver, better Muay Thai range striker, great kicks, knees, elbows,

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Speaker 3: elite jiu jitsu, one of the best, one of the

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Speaker 3: best MMA fighter jiu jitsu players we've ever seen. You know,

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Speaker 3: he doesn't have the credentials in high level grappling competitions,

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Speaker 3: but in terms of MMA submissions, arguably one of the

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Speaker 3: best we've had. Chandler pretty standard boxer wrestler. Hits hard,

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Speaker 3: comes out fast, wants to take it to you right away.

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Speaker 3: He trains hard. I'm sure he's in good shape, but

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Speaker 3: when you go as hard as he does early, it

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Speaker 3: really takes a toll on your cardio, especially with this

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Speaker 3: being the five round fight. For that reason, I'm staying

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Speaker 3: away from this one pre fight. I don't see it

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Speaker 3: going much different than the first one. But if Chandler

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Speaker 3: has a good first round, jumping back in on Charles

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Speaker 3: olivera live is my favorite way to play this. If

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Speaker 3: Chandler's gonna win any round, it's probably the first he

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Speaker 3: might come out and take it to Charles. Charles does

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Speaker 3: his playing possum thing where he gets hit and goes

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Speaker 3: to his back even though he's not really hurt.

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Speaker 4: Judges don't know.

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Speaker 3: That they're still going to score it the other way,

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Speaker 3: So looking for hopefully even money or better on Charles Olivera.

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Speaker 3: That's probably optimistic. If we get him at minus one

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Speaker 3: fifty or something after round one or even round two,

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Speaker 3: That's where I'll be jumping in. John, do you have

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Speaker 3: anything pre fight on this one? And what do you

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Speaker 3: think about betting it live?

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Speaker 1: No, I like your live betting angle, assuming it gets

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Speaker 1: out of the first round, which is kind of where

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Speaker 1: I'm headed. My biggest bet probably in the last five

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Speaker 1: years of MMA was I just took the fight not

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Speaker 1: to start round three in Uril dry Yush versus Charles Olivera, and.

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Speaker 7: I'm doing it again.

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Speaker 1: You can get at minus one eighty six on FanDuel

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Speaker 1: that this fight ends in round one or two. And

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Speaker 1: the reason I have no interest in the Chandler money

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Speaker 1: line is, like you said, he has very basically zero

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Speaker 1: chance to win buy submission and very low chance of

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Speaker 1: winning by decision just the way he attacks the fight,

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Speaker 1: wants to put on the siding fights probably a killer

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Speaker 1: be killed style that isn't conducive to winning, but definitely

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Speaker 1: exciting for fanfare. And that's why I still think plus

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Speaker 1: six point fifty that he went that Chandler gets the

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Speaker 1: Ko or Tko in round one or two also has

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Speaker 1: value because that's basically the way the only way I

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Speaker 1: see him winning. He almost had Olvera out of there

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Speaker 1: in round one in their first fight. If it wasn't

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Speaker 1: a title fight, you could argue, maybe that does get stopped.

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Speaker 1: I've seen fights stop for less than that, so Oilver

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Speaker 1: are not the most durable guy in the world. Like

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Speaker 1: you said, one more shot there in round one back

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Speaker 1: in their fight point twenty one, maybe it does get stopped.

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Speaker 1: So Chandler's going to go for broke. You get three

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Speaker 1: times the price on his on his money line if

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Speaker 1: you take the Kotko within the first two rounds. So

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Speaker 1: I'm having a larger bed on the fight ends in

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Speaker 1: the first two rounds or doesn't start round three. He's

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Speaker 1: the actual wording of it. And then I'm playing a

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Speaker 1: prop plus six fifty that Chandler wins by Kotko in

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Speaker 1: rounds one or two.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I totally agree with that.

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Speaker 3: It's like feels like it should be ninety or ninety

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Speaker 3: five percent of his win condition as a knockout in

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Speaker 3: the first two rounds, pretty much the only way he's

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Speaker 3: won fights in the UFC since he jumped over here,

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Speaker 3: and against a guy like ala Vera probably even increases

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Speaker 3: those chances.

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Speaker 4: We are going with Bo Nickel.

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Speaker 3: In our fight of the night here against Paul Craig,

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Speaker 3: little bit of a step up in competition. John, you

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Speaker 3: handled the full breakdown of this card over at Action Network,

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Speaker 3: so i'll kick it to you first. Tell us about

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Speaker 3: this fight, why we think it might be a fun one,

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Speaker 3: and how you're betting it.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I requested to write this fight up, and I still

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Speaker 1: actually have a small play on Paul Craig now plus

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Speaker 1: eight hundred. But the more I know I watched, the

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Speaker 1: less confident I became. But I'll say this, there's that

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Speaker 1: moment in the Cody Brunders fight versus Bo nicchol the

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Speaker 1: odd thing about it where you're thinking, man, this is

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Speaker 1: just too much too soon for this guy. Everyone felt

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Speaker 1: it based on the hype that was around bow Nickel.

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Speaker 1: But the weird thing about watching Nickel fight it seems

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Speaker 1: like he's not thinking as much with his striking, Like

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Speaker 1: if he comes out throws a huge explosive overhand right

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Speaker 1: and knocks out Paul Craig in the first minute, I

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Speaker 1: would not be shocked at all. With that said, it's

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Speaker 1: like he's almost thinking that he has to prove his

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Speaker 1: wrestling credentials, and so I do think this fight hits

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Speaker 1: the mat. So obviously Craig is most live to pull

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Speaker 1: this upset some submission off his back. I know you

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Speaker 1: are thinking you might be interest in the subprop litill

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Speaker 1: spoiler there. But even if he doesn't sub it, the

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Speaker 1: other way I'm going is I'll take another plus eight

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Speaker 1: hundred of bo Nickel by decision. And that's just mainly

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Speaker 1: because I think he takes his time on the ground

401
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Speaker 1: to make sure he doesn't get subbed, you know, prioritizes

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Speaker 1: his position over submission.

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Speaker 7: I don't really know if the.

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Speaker 1: Ground and pound, I mean, I'm sure it will materialize

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Speaker 1: at some point if he takes them down repeatedly, But

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Speaker 1: I think Craig is going to, you know, make him work.

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Speaker 1: Obviously on the ground, that's where Craig is most confident

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Speaker 1: Nickel defend off some submissions. Maybe Nickel in round two

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Speaker 1: decides not to take it to the ground as quickly

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Speaker 1: they dance around, nothing happens, and then Nickel wins the

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Speaker 1: decision at plus eight hundred. So I like Craig's money

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Speaker 1: line and I like bo Nickel by decision plus eight hundred.

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Speaker 7: Both ways, there as my two best bets on this fight.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 3: Longtime listeners of the podcast will know how much we

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Speaker 3: love Paul Craig around these parts. He's the most ridiculous,

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Speaker 3: weirdsmobile fighter. He comes out super intense, screams in your face,

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Speaker 3: paints his face like William Wallace in Brave Heart, and

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Speaker 3: then tries to pull guard. Because he is an elite

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Speaker 3: submission fighter who never really learned how to take anyone down.

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Speaker 3: He shoots a terrible double leg. When it doesn't work,

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Speaker 3: he hopes you join him in guard. Most of the time,

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Speaker 3: if you're smart, you don't, and then you just beat

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Speaker 3: him up on the feet. But if you do, he

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Speaker 3: has a very good chance of snapping your arm like

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Speaker 3: he did Jamal Hill, or putting you to sleep, or

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Speaker 3: any number of terrible things that happen as you alluded to,

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Speaker 3: I'm doing a small sprinkle. I'm Paul Craig by submission

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Speaker 3: plus thirteen hundred is the best lines I saw.

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Speaker 4: If he's gonna win.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be how right, So that should be a

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Speaker 3: lot closer to his money line. The other thing here

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Speaker 3: is most fighters have been unwilling to engage with Craig

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Speaker 3: on the ground as they should. It's totally the smart

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Speaker 3: thing to do. His striking's not good. He can't take

436
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,719
Speaker 3: you down. Just stand back up, make him do it.

437
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 3: Bow might be the one fighter who actually joins him

438
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 3: down there. Bow might be the one fighter who takes

439
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 3: him down and puts him down there. So I think

440
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 3: the odds of Craig pulling off an upset or a

441
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 3: little bit higher than they would be in some other matchups.

442
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 4: We're in thirteen to one odds.

443
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it's the most likely thing in the world,

444
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,959
Speaker 3: but if he's gonna win, that's how I really like that,

445
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 3: as you know, a very small sprinkle point one point

446
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 3: two unit something like that. And speaking of you know,

447
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 3: underdog odds, we're gonna move on to our favorite underdogs

448
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 3: of the night. We got one in common, so I'm

449
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 3: gonna start with my two and then we'll get it

450
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 3: to you for the one that we share first one

451
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 3: Edward and Morris. She's plus one twenty two taken on

452
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 3: Veronica Hardy. I think if Mora weren't going up a

453
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 3: weight class, she'd probably be favored here. She fought most

454
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 3: of her first two UFC fights at one point fifteen.

455
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 3: This is at one twenty five. If you look at

456
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 3: the pictures of them next to each other, she is

457
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 3: still way bigger than Veronica Hardy. More is a great grappler.

458
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 3: Her nickname is Ronda, which I'm a little annoyed by

459
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 3: female fighters who is Ronda or some version of that

460
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,439
Speaker 3: as their nickname, because you're not Ronda Rowsey. But with

461
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 3: that said, she's definitely got the grappling size and strength

462
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: advantage over Hardy. Hardy's ceiling here is kind of just

463
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,959
Speaker 3: outpointing you from a distance. If Mora gets a takedown,

464
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 3: the realms that she wins are going to be very

465
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 3: clear that she won them. The rounds that Hardy wins

466
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 3: are going to be hard to tell. She's never landed

467
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 3: a knockdown on the UFC. Not big power. So plus

468
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 3: one twenty two on Arda Mora. If you want to

469
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 3: play it a little bit safer, her plus three and

470
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: a half makes.

471
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 4: A lot of sense.

472
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 3: But that's minus one seventy five the other one. I

473
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 3: like Jonathan Martinez at plus one twenty four had a

474
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: six fight winning streak snapped because he fought Jose Aldo.

475
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 3: Now he's fighting Marcus McGee, who's three to zero in

476
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 3: the UFC, but it has fought kind of the dregs

477
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 3: of the bantam white division. Big step up for McGhee,

478
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 3: big step back down for Martinez, and you can get

479
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 3: j mart at plus one twenty four.

480
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 4: McGee might really be.

481
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 3: As good as he's looked in these early fights, but

482
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 3: I want to take plus money on the other side

483
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 3: and make him prove it. Then last one, I'll touch

484
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: on it real quick. I took Basil Jefes early in

485
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 3: the week at plus one eighty line is now blown

486
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: out all the way to plus two forty. I don't

487
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 3: know why he's this big of an underdog. You're on

488
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 3: the Hefes side too, Tell me what you're seeing in

489
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 3: that fight.

490
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 7: Yeah.

491
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 1: I think really what it comes down to is if

492
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 1: he can neutralize the wrestling at all. I've heard people

493
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: say that it's close. I personally think ob on Ella

494
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: is a way better wrestler. I do think he has

495
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: the advantage. I think he'll get him down rather easily.

496
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 1: But I still I'm still firing on plus two forty

497
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 1: and the reason is pretty simple, and is that is

498
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: Hafez when given the opportunity, I don't care if he's

499
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: has forty five seconds in the round that he's not

500
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: on his back. He he's swinging and oban Elliott. While

501
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 1: I think he's gotten better from his time and Dana

502
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: White Contender Series, he's willing to get in this brawling range.

503
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: And I don't think he's striking as terrible of any means,

504
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: but he's you know, he got clipped by Val Woodburn.

505
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 1: He got clipped in his Data White Contender Series fight

506
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 1: and it was hurt badly, seemingly in both I think Hafez,

507
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: you know, has the power to put him out honestly,

508
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: or at least hurt him. We could see some grappling

509
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 1: exchanges where Elliott is winning, and then obviously we know

510
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: Damage has scored a lot more heavily right now by

511
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: the judges, So he takes one big shot, haf steals

512
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: the round. And if I'm wrong and Elliott and Hoffiser

513
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: are closer to being equals in the wrestling department, then

514
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: it's absolutely no brainer taking that plus two forty as

515
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 1: someone who's Jack Fellow Adelina Truther and thinks he's a

516
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: future a welthweight champ. You know, I think he overlooked

517
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 1: off as a little bit in that fight. We won't

518
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: get too deep into that, but you know, impression, oppressive

519
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 1: showing in a really impressive showing of toughness in the

520
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 1: third round. As GDM, we're just beating him up and

521
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: he took you know, everything from him. So while I

522
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: think Elliot might have the wrestling and cardio advantage, if

523
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: that's not the case and they're they're standing for extended

524
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 1: periods of time, you HAFS is going to beat him

525
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: up and he's going to land some big shots.

526
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with that. I also think Heez maybe

527
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 4: not the better wrestler, but the better pure grappler than

528
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 4: Oban Elliott.

529
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 7: Here.

530
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 3: He's He's a guy that if you follow like the

531
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 3: BJJ scene in the East Coast UFC or MMA scene,

532
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 3: people have known.

533
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 4: About him for a while. He's competed in some high.

534
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,479
Speaker 3: Level grappling stuff, does a lot of the pro Fury

535
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: events and really took it to both JDM and Mickey

536
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: gall I'm going to have a Mickey golf fade later

537
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: in the show. But Mickey gall for all of his faults,

538
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: can grapple.

539
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:04,679
Speaker 4: A little bit.

540
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: And then the other thing on the Elliott side of

541
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 3: it is he got taken down twice by Val Woodburn

542
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 3: and knockdown that's not a good sign. Bell Woodburn is

543
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 3: not a UFC level fighter. He got brought in to

544
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 3: be sacrificed at the altar of bow Nickel, and you

545
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: know they let him stick around a little bit, but

546
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 3: he's not the level that betsl hoofe is. I think

547
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: the plus two forty or so is crazy. I took

548
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 3: plus one eighty. I'm just gonna double down on that.

549
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 3: I was hoping, you know, I figured the line would

550
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 3: go the other way. So I'm pleasantly surprised to get this.

551
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 3: And then you got one more underdog for me, So

552
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,719
Speaker 3: give me that before remove on to our other props.

553
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah again, I'm talking about the older fighters, but I'm

554
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: gonna roll with Jim Miller. And one of the reasons

555
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: is Damon Jackson. I mean, he's getting older as well

556
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 1: and his durability is not the best. So dam Jackson

557
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: obviously more of a natural featherweight moving up to lightweight here.

558
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: So I'm not saying Jim Miller is like gonna have

559
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: some big size advantage over him. But he's been fighting

560
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: lightweights virtually his whole career, I mean, most of his

561
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: Grand sat majority.

562
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 7: He has been another way, I believe, But you know.

563
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: When this fight is at distance, I think Jim Miller

564
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: actually has a big advantage in the striking. Now, you know,

565
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,360
Speaker 1: Canda Leech, Damon Jackson hang all over him for extended

566
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 1: periods maybe, but you know, Jim Miller is still in

567
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: in that opening round. I feel like it's dangerous enough

568
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 1: to win that round.

569
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 7: And if he.

570
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: Can't, I mean he's not some bad grappler. He's a

571
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 1: very good grappler, has a lot of wrestling credentials. If that,

572
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,479
Speaker 1: again is closer to even where you just get back

573
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 1: to his feet repeatedly, you know, then I think Jim

574
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: Miller may even deserve to be favored here, assuming that

575
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: we get extended periods of the stand up. Like I said,

576
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: I think Miller is faster, He's still crisper. They say

577
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 1: the old adage the last thing to go at your

578
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: age is actually your power. So I mean, maybe he

579
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 1: does lands something big on Dame Jackson. So even if

580
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: it's a coin flip fight, I like, you know, taking

581
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 1: plus one fifty at those odds right now.

582
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with that.

583
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 3: I did the full breakdown of this fight and that

584
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 3: was one of my beats. The other one I'm taking

585
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 3: is the under two and a half, which is also

586
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,239
Speaker 3: plus money at plus one twenty four. Both guys are

587
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 3: cardio liabilities, both guys can hit hard a little bit.

588
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 3: Both guys have submissions in the tank. I don't see

589
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: this one going all the way one way or the other.

590
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 3: I don't feel confident who gets the stop. So my

591
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 3: logic here is if we get a Jim Miller win

592
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 3: or a stoppage in the first two and a half rounds,

593
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 3: I'm gonna come out of head either way. If it

594
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 3: happened to be Jim Miller who gets that stoppage, then

595
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 3: it is a huge night. This one, strangely, and I

596
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 3: wish we had our old friend Brendan Glashen on this podcast.

597
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 3: But this one, strangely is kind of like this store

598
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 3: brand version of Charles olivera versus Michael Chandler, with Jim

599
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 3: Miller playing the role of Chandler. You know, we got

600
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 3: the power punching boxer wrestler against the taller, skinny guy

601
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 3: with some submissions and a little bit more diverse striking game.

602
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 3: I do think Jim Miller's better, though. I love that

603
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 3: they're matching him up with fellow veterans rather than feeding empty,

604
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 3: young hungry fighters. So like this fight, and that is

605
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 3: the transition into our props piece because that is one

606
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: of my two top props. The other one I already

607
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 3: gave this one out for John Jones. I'm also taking

608
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 3: Chris Widman or Eric Andrews to have a point aducted

609
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 3: at plus two thousand. Chris Widman landed some vicious ipokes

610
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: in his last fight against Bruno Silva. It's a TKO

611
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 3: win for him officially, but he think he dropped him

612
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 3: with the ipoke and that was what led to the stoppage. Again,

613
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: back to the old gloves makes it even easier to

614
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 3: poke in the eye. We're betting on the raft to

615
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 3: care a little bit, but I'm doing point one unit

616
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 3: on that, and then I'm parlaying those two together. It's

617
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: like four hundred to one odds better than that at

618
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 3: like zero point oh one unit. Just for fun, let's

619
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 3: get some rafts that actually care actually enforce some rules. Here,

620
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 3: see if we can get a point deducted in either

621
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 3: one or both of these fights, and then you got

622
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 3: two other props for us here, right, John, Yeah.

623
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 7: Let's stick with it. Anders Wiman fight.

624
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 1: So you know Widman, two fights removed from coming back

625
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: from his injury, he got oustruck seventy to thirty seven

626
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: against Brad Tavars and then in the last fight brew

627
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: Sva and he did him a favorite. He put out

628
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: virtually no volume on the feet in round one. Wideman

629
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: held him down for almost three minutes of round one,

630
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: like just against the cage where you were virtually resting.

631
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: And then to start round three that was the second

632
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 1: ipoke from wide Men, so he had about a ninety

633
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: second break there after the minute in between rounds. So

634
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: I think I mean Andrews for all of his faults,

635
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: he hasn't finished anybody in for one person in the

636
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 1: last five years, but he actually has been putting a

637
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: pace on some of these guys. He would be doing

638
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: Wiman a huge favor by not doing that here. I'm

639
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 1: not saying he's gonna go in and out grapple and

640
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 1: take them down a bunch. But Wiman's cardio to me

641
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: has always been an issue and he kind of got

642
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 1: saved now. Last fight, we didn't really see if he

643
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 1: was exposed because he had so many breaks there and

644
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: the like you said, the third ipoke from Wideman ended

645
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: up being, uh, you know, the stoppage of by a vocant.

646
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: I can't remember if his TKO or decision. I know

647
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: they stopped the fight.

648
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 7: At that point.

649
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: But long way of saying, I think Andrews can put

650
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: the pace on him. I think he can really land

651
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: more volume if he doesn't stay in kicking range. We

652
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: saw how many kicks Widenes's basically all he did was

653
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: throw kicks and to the body and low kicks last

654
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: first last time verse Bruno silf So, I think anders

655
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,239
Speaker 1: a close close to two to one plus one one

656
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 1: five is the best line there on Fando by decision

657
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: is the way I'm going with that, and my other prop,

658
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: I'm taking a shot plus seven fifty. I know you

659
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: just talked about Vernonica Hardy being the points winner, but

660
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: I'm just not that impressed with Mora and I think

661
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 1: she is a complete size bully. I mean, Veronica Hardy

662
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: is the biggest fighter she's fought really and she Maura

663
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: in that first round in her UFC Main roster review

664
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: versus Ruiz shot a double agg it actually lost the

665
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 1: scramble in Ruiz pulled guard and I saw that. I

666
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: was like, I mean, that was just a huge red

667
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: flag to me. And then against the fighter Denise Comes,

668
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: who she lost to Morris, speaking of Gomes, is right

669
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: in front of her. I think Hardy is way more agile,

670
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: way faster, and actually could win some of those scrambles,

671
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be shocked, if you know, Mora does

672
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: get a couple of take times, but loses some of

673
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: these scrambles. And then I noted in that the Denise

674
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: Gomes fight when more is implementing her game plan, she

675
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: was pretty gassed at two minutes and forty seconds in

676
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: the second round. And I'm kind of playing into my

677
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: now somewhat famous to myself Neil Magney TKO win over

678
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: Mike a Lot at eighteen to one that I had

679
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: on a promptsq a Lot a while back. I'm not

680
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: necessarily looking for some prolific finisher. I'm just looking for

681
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: someone competent against someone that I think can be absolutely

682
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: gassed and if you think more can gas at one

683
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: twenty five. You know she didn't make the weight her

684
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: last two fights, so I'm not saying she I'm not

685
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: going to be the person that says, well, now, she

686
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: won't get tired by not cutting that weight. So I

687
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: think she gets tired again. I think I think Hardy

688
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: could catch her a sub I think Hardy could drop her.

689
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:37,719
Speaker 1: Let's just see what happens in the third round if

690
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: Mara is completely gassed from chasing Hardy around the cage.

691
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't hate that either, because part

692
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 3: of my thesis on Moura is that when she wins,

693
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 3: rounds are going to be definitive and when Hardy wins,

694
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 3: rounds is going to be close. But that means Hardy

695
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 3: might need a finish to get the win at all.

696
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 3: So when you're getting that much better of a price

697
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 3: relative to her money line, it is hard to complain

698
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 3: about that. Moving on to what we officially call the

699
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: Best Bats segment, I'm calling this final Bets. At least

700
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 3: for me, I don't feel particularly strongly about this one.

701
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 3: Another slight underdog that I like, ram Is Brahima fighting

702
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 3: Mickey gall who we mentioned before. It's just kind of

703
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 3: a classic by low Spot for me. On Brahima, he

704
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: looked kind of rough in his last fight against UMBERGERMBO.

705
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 3: That was his first fight and I think two plus

706
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: years had a couple neck surgeries, had considered retiring. Was

707
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 3: just in a really bad spot physically. Now he's six

708
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 3: or seven months removed from that fight. You know, got

709
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: some full training camps in knocks, the ring rusted off,

710
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 3: and he gets to fight Mickey gall Mickeygall is seven

711
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 3: and six is a pro six and six in the UFC.

712
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 4: He made his debut at one to zero.

713
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 3: Two of those wins were against CM Punk and Mike Jackson,

714
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: neither of whom or anywhere near UFC level, and his

715
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 3: only win in the last five or six fights was

716
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: against Jordan Williams, who went winless in the UFC before

717
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 3: getting cut. Gall is just not a UFC level fighter.

718
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 3: He was brought in to be a guy that maybe

719
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 3: CM Punk could get a win against, and has somehow

720
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 3: managed to stick her round all these years later. Brim

721
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 3: plus one twenty two.

722
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 4: Both guys are grapplers.

723
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: I think Brian mad is the better one, and if

724
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 3: he's back to the kind of physical form he was

725
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 3: in before his injury should have the athletic and physical

726
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: tool advantage as well. And then John, you're going with

727
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 3: a fighting nerd pick as your best bet telling me

728
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: about Maricio Hoofy.

729
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, real, cos I want to say that Hardy that

730
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: plus seven to fifty was the best line I saw

731
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: on FanDuel inside of the distance under double chance, but

732
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: Maritio Rufie. So yeah, Fading the fighting nerds obviously does

733
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: not make anybody any money right now, so I'm sticking

734
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: with the trend in backing them. You know, he obviously

735
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: is drawing these cottor McGregor comparisons, and I kind of

736
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: see it with the counters and the stinging fast hands.

737
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: I mean even sometimes the way he's like just throwing

738
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: one shot at a time but seemingly extremely accurate. And

739
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: then you have you on Top on the O side,

740
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: who is a much more active fighter, you know, in

741
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: your face kind of might make sense of grappling, which

742
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: he needs to do if he's going to have any chance.

743
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: I don't think he's athletic enough to get it done.

744
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 1: And then what really worried me about the on top

745
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: wall He's never been knocked out. He kind of added

746
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: this like looping right overhand in his last fight that

747
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 1: I was like, this is going to get countered and

748
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 1: he's gonna get Ko like it gets anyone faster than him.

749
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: And there's just a massive hand speed difference between these

750
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 1: two guys. And then lastly, on Top is a lightweight.

751
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: He's one fifty five. Dana White Contenner series Roofie was

752
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: up at one seventy. I got the TKO in the

753
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: third round, kind of proving they can carry that power

754
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: for all three rounds. So I got the faster guy,

755
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 1: the more powerful guy, the bigger guy, the prospect fighting

756
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: out of one of the best camps in MMA right now.

757
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: So I think he gets a done minus one forty

758
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: by Kotko.

759
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you mentioned the size there.

760
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: Doing this at one hundred and sixty five pound Catchwight.

761
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 3: No official reason for making that shift was announced. It

762
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 3: was originally a lightweight fight. If you look at both

763
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 3: their records and just look at both of them physically,

764
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 3: it seems pretty clear that the reason they're doing it

765
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 3: at one sixty five is not because James long Top

766
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 3: and make one fifty five. I don't know that for sure.

767
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 3: That seems like the likeliest outcome and just the matchmaking here.

768
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 3: You know, they're putting Hoofy against a zero to two

769
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: guy in the UFC who likes to stand and bang.

770
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,439
Speaker 3: It's kind of clear what the UFC wants to happen here.

771
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 3: And when we're betting, you know, I try to be

772
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: on the side of the promotion because they usually know

773
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 3: best to know what to do.

774
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 4: Not always, but that's typically how it goes. That's going

775
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 4: to do it.

776
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: For our UFC three oh nine betting preview. You can

777
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: find tons more UFC three oh nine content from John

778
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 3: and I and the Action Network app and at actionnetwork

779
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 3: dot com, where John also previewed hoofyel on top and

780
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 3: a longer piece. Don't forget to download the free award

781
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 3: winning Action Network app, and if you haven't already subscribed

782
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 3: to Action Pro using pod twenty for twenty dollars off

783
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 3: an annual sub last plug for me, be sure to

784
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 3: jump in the Action Network discord. We've been chopping it

785
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: up all week talking about fights occasionally. The podcast is

786
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,479
Speaker 3: a discord exclusive thing, so if you've missed the show

787
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 3: the last few weeks, that's where you can find it.

788
00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 4: It is free to join and.

789
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 3: You can get in there and mix it up with

790
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 3: all your favorite experts and talk sports, sports, betting, and Mark.

791
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 4: Thanks everyone.

792
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:21,239
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793
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,040
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794
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