Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on
Speaker 1: the American people made it clear they don't want every
Speaker 1: day going forward to be a constant political bass. We're
Speaker 1: gonna be an administration that will work with everyone. Were
Speaker 1: just because we didn't get across the finish line and
Speaker 1: does not mean it's over. Bloomberg Sound on Politics, Policy
Speaker 1: and Perspective from DC's top name. I'd rather be in
Speaker 1: our position than representable boards position. But again, we're winning,
Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean we want I don't ask people
Speaker 1: for money because I've won all the races that I've
Speaker 1: been in over my life except one um the Big Life.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Control
Speaker 1: of the US Senate becomes a best of three. Welcome
Speaker 1: to the fastest hour in politics is the volk Counting
Speaker 1: continues in some key races that will decide majorities on
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill. We're not there yet, still no call on
Speaker 1: the House, and the Senate is indeed coming down to
Speaker 1: just three states that are still undecided. All the It
Speaker 1: is from Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report and Analysis
Speaker 1: from our signature panel with Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis
Speaker 1: and Jeanie Chanzy No later, Independence and young people challenge
Speaker 1: voting models around the country. We talked turnout, coming up
Speaker 1: with Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy
Speaker 1: at USC. Here we are two days later, and we
Speaker 1: still don't hunt know which party controls the House or
Speaker 1: the Senate. Though if you seem at this point to
Speaker 1: doubt that Republicans will eventually take the House, kind of
Speaker 1: a matter of time. Here the GOP is only about
Speaker 1: a dozen seats away, maybe a bit less with the
Speaker 1: number of seats out west that have yet to be called.
Speaker 1: They include the Bobert seat, Colorado's third districts. Lauren Bobert
Speaker 1: is now leading her challenger. I don't know if you've
Speaker 1: been following this, of course, she just tweeted winning has
Speaker 1: been leading by what we're both just not even four
Speaker 1: hundred points. Adam Frisch is the Democrat in this case.
Speaker 1: He was up by about sixty points when I woke
Speaker 1: up this morning. Now Lauren Bobert is in the lead,
Speaker 1: and she was out speaking today at a round table
Speaker 1: in which she was assailing health officials responsible for the
Speaker 1: nation's response to COVID and while she was at it
Speaker 1: with the idea of being accused or I guess tired
Speaker 1: of being accused an election denier. She had deniers of
Speaker 1: any member of Congress, from the upcoming freshman class to
Speaker 1: those in leadership who won't fight with me to end
Speaker 1: medical tyranny, secure the southern border, expel Anthony Fauci. They
Speaker 1: will not have my support, not in their reelection, and
Speaker 1: certainly not for speaker that was that sepack back in August,
Speaker 1: invoking a whole other story that we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about a bit later on with our panel, because we
Speaker 1: keep hearing the knives around for Kevin McCarthy, but they
Speaker 1: haven't even called the house yet. On the Senate side,
Speaker 1: it's down to three as we keep talking here. You
Speaker 1: know Georgia, we know is going to a runoff. That
Speaker 1: one's gonna take a month, as Senator Raphael Warnock reminded
Speaker 1: supporters today, So I'm going to need you to stick
Speaker 1: with me for four more weeks? Can we do that?
Speaker 1: Four more weeks? The sixth of December will of course
Speaker 1: be tracking that for you, But we don't know if
Speaker 1: it's going to be the race that decides control. We're
Speaker 1: waiting on Arizona and Nevada as well. Mark Kelly is
Speaker 1: holding ahead in Arizona. We're not sure exactly where things
Speaker 1: are going in Nevada. Even with Adam Laxalt leading. It
Speaker 1: appears that the incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortes Masto may
Speaker 1: have the votes in waiting with malins that have yet
Speaker 1: to be counted from Reno from Las Vegas that could
Speaker 1: lean democratic. So that's where we start the conversation with
Speaker 1: Jessica Taylor, Senate and governor's editor of the Cook Political Report. Jessica, welcome.
Speaker 1: I hope you have had a chance to get some
Speaker 1: sleep here over the last couple of days, because it's
Speaker 1: not done yet. Do we know when these races could
Speaker 1: be called Arizona, Nevada. Are we waiting into the weekend
Speaker 1: or what I think we're waiting into the weekend, perhaps
Speaker 1: even early next week. UM, we should get some more
Speaker 1: ballots tonight in both of those states. But again, UM,
Speaker 1: as of the last time I checked this afternoon, it
Speaker 1: was still unclear exactly how many full count of how
Speaker 1: many ballots um in both of those states. But I
Speaker 1: think that things are moving either are in the right
Speaker 1: direction or moving in the right direction for Democrats in
Speaker 1: both of those states. UM. You mentioned In Nevada Catherine
Speaker 1: Cortis Master who was long thought to be the most
Speaker 1: vulnerable Democratic income but excuse me, UM been talking a
Speaker 1: lot these fast few days, as he is narrowly behind
Speaker 1: her Republican challenger at this point, Adam black Salt. However, again,
Speaker 1: where those outstanding ballots are in the fact that they
Speaker 1: are mail in ballots that typically lean more Democratic. UM,
Speaker 1: that is good news for her. She's currently winning those
Speaker 1: at a clip of about six She's winning about the
Speaker 1: five percent of those. UM. Nevada politics guru John Rawlstons
Speaker 1: who we all follow there, UM, and he said he's
Speaker 1: calculated that she only actually needs to win fifty five.
Speaker 1: So even if her margins go down, if some of
Speaker 1: the more rural counties that are going to be more
Speaker 1: lax all friendly come in, UH, that means that she's
Speaker 1: still in good shape. UM. In Arizona, Mark Kelly is
Speaker 1: up by about five points. But actually it sort seems
Speaker 1: to be a mix of votes and there's some in
Speaker 1: person some day of and particularly some that people delivered
Speaker 1: hand delivered to polling places, UM, which can often trend
Speaker 1: more Republicans so we expect that lead to drop, but
Speaker 1: I think he's ahead far enough where Democrats are still
Speaker 1: favorite in both and that's important because that means that
Speaker 1: the runoffs in Georgia would not be for control of
Speaker 1: the Senate. And you know, again, Democrats might actually pick
Speaker 1: up one season the Senate, which would be something when
Speaker 1: we look at history. So we'll learn in the next
Speaker 1: few days. You'd like to think maybe through this weekend,
Speaker 1: as we said in the outset, whether Georgie is really
Speaker 1: gonna matter. If it's not the decisive votes, then it
Speaker 1: becomes gravy potentially for Democrats that they can add another
Speaker 1: seat here. But my goodness, I I just that race
Speaker 1: could get into looney Tunes over the next month. Uh.
Speaker 1: And it's just a question of how much pressure there's
Speaker 1: going to be on these candidates to get this done
Speaker 1: as far as the House is concerned. Uh. You know,
Speaker 1: we're watching Lauren Bolbert's seat because she's she's famous or
Speaker 1: infamous depending on who you're asking. But what are the
Speaker 1: seats to watch at this point? Where is this going
Speaker 1: to be decided in California? I think a lot of
Speaker 1: it's coming in California, Some in the West weast Washington, Oregon.
Speaker 1: My colleague Dave Wasserman covers those, and I think in
Speaker 1: California we don't particularly know exactly what is outstanding still,
Speaker 1: and that can take weeks to count truly a lot
Speaker 1: of mail there as well. And remember a lot of
Speaker 1: these ballots, as long as their postmarks by election day,
Speaker 1: they can still be counted. I could come in days
Speaker 1: after him. That includes a lot of military ballots as well,
Speaker 1: of course from overseas. So while the whole argument takes
Speaker 1: place around you know, the leadership of the big battle
Speaker 1: of who's going to hold the gavel, it's going to
Speaker 1: be quite a while before we actually it can can
Speaker 1: call this, uh, most likely for Republicans. I mean, Kevin
Speaker 1: McCarthy was out there on election night taking credit here.
Speaker 1: At what point does you know, does this start to
Speaker 1: age poorly? Well, um, I think that's just where it is. Again,
Speaker 1: Republicans only needed five House seats to flip this, and
Speaker 1: it looked like that well the game would be higher
Speaker 1: than that, but only barely. And the fact, you know,
Speaker 1: McCarthy was talking last year that the Republicans could flip
Speaker 1: as many a sixty House seats well, with a number
Speaker 1: of competitive ones that have been shrunk um. That's not
Speaker 1: necessarily the truth wasn't accurate then. But also where that
Speaker 1: margin may end up coming into play is in redistressing
Speaker 1: a couple of seats that Republican Republicans were able to
Speaker 1: draw in their favor and pick off either and newly
Speaker 1: drawn seats or and seats that were you know, the
Speaker 1: party um, party power changed, who did best in which
Speaker 1: to a certain things too, so they had an edge
Speaker 1: in there. Didn't look like, of course they were going
Speaker 1: to need that necessarily, could just pa their totals, But
Speaker 1: right now it could be decisive. Again, I think this
Speaker 1: is going to be close and far below what Republicans
Speaker 1: were aiming for. Jessica. Looking at the governor's race as
Speaker 1: you are, the governor's editor for Cook in Arizona, Katie
Speaker 1: Hobbs is still ahead by just about a point or
Speaker 1: one percentage point, if if we can call it that.
Speaker 1: I'm rounding a little bit here, But carry Lake is
Speaker 1: talking a big game still, uh, calling out the voting
Speaker 1: infrastructure in Arizona, voting officials and so forth. That's a race,
Speaker 1: you know, we talk about the Senate race for the
Speaker 1: balance of power in Washington but that's a race we've
Speaker 1: gotta be watching closely as well. Will those be called
Speaker 1: around the same time. I expect so, since we're looking
Speaker 1: at the same ballots. But yeah, you're right, I mean
Speaker 1: for her though she is running ahead of lake Masters,
Speaker 1: which is not that surprising. So I think this is
Speaker 1: a state where we can see a split decision um So.
Speaker 1: And again remember people come playing about the time it
Speaker 1: takes a count ballast I is nothing new, especially in Arizona.
Speaker 1: And I think you can kind of if you want
Speaker 1: to count them fast and you could have more errors.
Speaker 1: So it's like do you want to fast or do
Speaker 1: you want them kind of accurately. And it really could
Speaker 1: be interesting to watch her because I think of any
Speaker 1: of the people, UM, she is certainly going to claim
Speaker 1: fraud if she wins. She's still going to claim that
Speaker 1: if she wins and a Slate Masters loses is a
Speaker 1: question I'm currently pondering. However, I will say that some
Speaker 1: of these you know, election deniers that Trump had backed UM,
Speaker 1: particularly in Michigan, Wisconsin, UM different places. I was pleased
Speaker 1: on a lesson. I did see some of those after
Speaker 1: those races became clear. They didn't see it and conceived gracefully. UM,
Speaker 1: so we're seeing less of that. But um, you know,
Speaker 1: just again, it is a sad thing that we have
Speaker 1: to actually remind us that should not be out of
Speaker 1: the ordinary. UM. But I think certainly Arizona is a
Speaker 1: place where she is making noise and it's a very
Speaker 1: loud voice there. It's great to have you back with us, Jessica,
Speaker 1: rest up reast the voice, if anything. Jessica Taylor from
Speaker 1: Cook Political Report getting us started off here on Bloomberg's
Speaker 1: sound on IM. Joe, Matthew and Washington want to talk
Speaker 1: to the panel quickly on this because they've been watching
Speaker 1: this as closely and I've been as deep into this
Speaker 1: as anyone over the past couple of days. Rick Davis
Speaker 1: and Jennie Chanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, you've of course
Speaker 1: had an eye on Arizona and and you're the expert
Speaker 1: on Arizona politics. Could we get a call tonight after
Speaker 1: the next dump of votes? Probably not. Um, you'll get
Speaker 1: another couple of hundred times hundred, fifty thousand, hundred seventy
Speaker 1: five thousand tonight. You've still got like four hundred thousand outstanding.
Speaker 1: It's still gonna be close. But the more goes out,
Speaker 1: we're learning a lot. And one of the things we're
Speaker 1: learning is that these uh same day absentee ballot um
Speaker 1: drop offs uh as of last night, and that's pretty
Speaker 1: good sample over a hundred fifty thousand. I mean, they
Speaker 1: they were much less Republican than they were in I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, we have a lot to compare to because
Speaker 1: they do this every year and uh, and everyone was
Speaker 1: surprised that both Kitty Hobbs and Mark Kelly actually picked
Speaker 1: up votes. They they should have been losing votes along
Speaker 1: the way. So, um, this's got a lot of head
Speaker 1: scratching going on in Arizona. But tonight we'll tell us
Speaker 1: even more. Jennie is Lauren Bloeberg gonna keep her job?
Speaker 1: You know she thinks she is. I think it is
Speaker 1: still a big question. But but let's not you know,
Speaker 1: under let's underscore rather the fact that fort to knock
Speaker 1: off an incumbent in the House is a big f
Speaker 1: and deal, as Biden would say, So if Adam Frish
Speaker 1: does this, it is a huge, huge upset on his part,
Speaker 1: and he is well within striking distance. And we're just
Speaker 1: getting started on the fastest hour in politics. Rick and
Speaker 1: Jennie will stay right where they are as we continue
Speaker 1: the conversation about the battle for leadership here in Washington.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The
Speaker 1: back room drama in the US House is fun to watch,
Speaker 1: but you wonder how it ends as they report knives
Speaker 1: out for Kevin McCarthy, although maybe he's whistling past the graveyard.
Speaker 1: But Steve Scalise, of course, this is the man who
Speaker 1: would be either majority leader or maybe even speaker. He'd
Speaker 1: be the man to challenge Kevin McCarthy if he's coming
Speaker 1: off of the mid term showing weakness, he told Fox
Speaker 1: News Today, Now he's on board. Look, we're gonna have
Speaker 1: our elections next week. I'm supporting Kevin McCarthy for speaker
Speaker 1: and he'll win that race. And ultimately, you've seen us
Speaker 1: pull together these last few months and focus on the
Speaker 1: attack against big government socialism. Reassemble the panel with the
Speaker 1: talking points in place. Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzy, No,
Speaker 1: we're here, Rick, At what point you have to say
Speaker 1: that publicly? Right at what point does this get ugly.
Speaker 1: It's probably getting ugly already. Um. I think that you know,
Speaker 1: these members are a club. It's a very exclusive club.
Speaker 1: They talked to each other more than they talk to
Speaker 1: anybody else. Uh. And my guess is the various factions
Speaker 1: within the House Republican Caucus, you know, whether they're the
Speaker 1: far right or the moderates. Uh. And Kevin McCarthy kind
Speaker 1: of smack dab in between and his leadership team are
Speaker 1: all scrambling to try and figure out how to make
Speaker 1: heads or tails of this. And and of course some
Speaker 1: of these people who have yet to be even determined
Speaker 1: are they going to be members of Congress in the
Speaker 1: Republican her Democratic caucus are going to make a big difference.
Speaker 1: And uh And and so the fact that they still
Speaker 1: don't know really does limited a bit. But there is
Speaker 1: already a lot of haggling going on is to how
Speaker 1: to peel together enough votes to win the speakership. It's
Speaker 1: pretty fascinating stuff here, Genie. And you know this is
Speaker 1: really inside politics, but it's gonna it's gonna really matter
Speaker 1: obviously what it comes down to who is holding the gavel.
Speaker 1: This would not be the first time if if he
Speaker 1: doesn't make it, that Kevin McCarthy fails in his quest
Speaker 1: to be leader, should we be talking about other names here?
Speaker 1: Is at least Stafonic on board or is she allied
Speaker 1: with him? Who's who should we be looking at other
Speaker 1: than Steve Skalie, You know, I think at least Stafonic
Speaker 1: would be a fascinating choice, and not just because I'm
Speaker 1: from New York and she has proven that she will
Speaker 1: do what it takes to move ahead if she can.
Speaker 1: I think that Kevin McCarthy is still in the running.
Speaker 1: I think he should go take lessons from Nancy Pelosi
Speaker 1: if she would be willing to help him, because he's
Speaker 1: going to find himself in a if he is speaker again,
Speaker 1: he's going to find himself in a very similar situation.
Speaker 1: He's going to be trapped between a far right as
Speaker 1: opposed to far left, you know, sort of small group
Speaker 1: of say twenty thirty members plus or minus, and then
Speaker 1: much larger group of moderates, and he's going to be
Speaker 1: squeezed between those. And one person in the modern era
Speaker 1: who's shown that she can actually maneuver through that is
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi. And this seems to be where we are headed,
Speaker 1: whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans, with the speakers
Speaker 1: and the leadership having to try to work through a
Speaker 1: far right or left of their caucus and the moderates.
Speaker 1: And she was able to do that with people like
Speaker 1: AOC in the squad. She did it successfully. He should
Speaker 1: take lessons from her. Yeah, if this became a Scalise
Speaker 1: a speakership, Rick would would at least deponic be the
Speaker 1: shoe in for majority leader. Uh yeah, not necessarily. I mean,
Speaker 1: if Scalise winds up getting the capperd seat, you know,
Speaker 1: for what, And and you'll have to assume that there's
Speaker 1: been a decapitation move on on, you know, Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 1: to do that. He's probably gonna look at this and say, Okay,
Speaker 1: I want to be surrounded by my people, not Kevin's people.
Speaker 1: And and usually if you have that kind of tumult
Speaker 1: in the leadership, that's full on regime change in that
Speaker 1: that's that's regime change. Wow, what do you mean decapitate?
Speaker 1: Tell her this is what you mean by that? I
Speaker 1: mean what I mean is, you know, take him out
Speaker 1: from the expected position of speakership. I don't mean to
Speaker 1: actually take his hand. No, of course, although maybe we
Speaker 1: do need to be more specific in least day in
Speaker 1: this day and age, uh, Genie. Nancy Pelosi is watching this,
Speaker 1: of course, and maybe she does have advice, but she
Speaker 1: needs to figure out her own life right now. Is
Speaker 1: she going to resign? Yeah, I mean, I think we'll
Speaker 1: be waiting to hear. What we're hearing is they'll have
Speaker 1: their leadership elections late in November. She's obviously at cope
Speaker 1: and we're just I think we the Democrats, they are
Speaker 1: waiting to see will she, you know, step down? Um?
Speaker 1: Or is she just going to try to maintain And
Speaker 1: I think we know who's in waiting, primarily another New
Speaker 1: Yorker on the other side is a Kim Jefferies, who
Speaker 1: many people feel that if she does step down, he
Speaker 1: is the person next in line for that that leadership post.
Speaker 1: But again in deference to Nancy Pelosi, people are waiting,
Speaker 1: and I think, you know, on Kevin McCarthy another person
Speaker 1: to watch if it isn't and and Rick's decapitation if
Speaker 1: it occurs. Somebody to watch is Jim Jordan's. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of love lost there, and I'm
Speaker 1: serious about that, though Rick does Jim Jordan have a
Speaker 1: chance at that level of leadership, not a snowball's chance
Speaker 1: in HeLa Ben Arizona. Look, I mean there is a
Speaker 1: Jim Jordan's all of whom you know, would have probably
Speaker 1: a broader base of support. And I would say, you know,
Speaker 1: remember one thing. You don't have to be a member
Speaker 1: of Congress to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Speaker 1: And so if there's a grand bargain, how about Donald
Speaker 1: Trump as Speaker of the House. I mean, like Kevin
Speaker 1: McCarthy works for him already, so why not make it
Speaker 1: an and Rick Davidson not a snowball's chance to Jim Jordan,
Speaker 1: but he's going with Donald Trump for a speaker. I
Speaker 1: I love, I'm just causing trouble. This is good. This
Speaker 1: is the kind of trouble that we love. It did
Speaker 1: make me think of yesterday. I was talking to a
Speaker 1: friend who worked with in Washington, d CNE and we
Speaker 1: both remember this day. It was December nine, and I'm
Speaker 1: sure you both remember it. And Rick, you probably have
Speaker 1: a story. But sometimes you come awfully close to being speaker.
Speaker 1: Sometimes you have become speaker and it still doesn't work out.
Speaker 1: Remember a guy named Bob Livingstone, anybody come with me
Speaker 1: back again? December was a different time in Washington thanks
Speaker 1: to Larry Flint, who put a story out there about
Speaker 1: his extra marital affair. I was prepared to lead our
Speaker 1: narrow majority of Speaker, and I believe I had it
Speaker 1: in me to do a fine job. But I cannot
Speaker 1: do that job or be the kind of leader that
Speaker 1: I would like to be under current circum stances. So
Speaker 1: I must set the example that I hope President Clinton
Speaker 1: will follow. I will not stand for Speaker of the
Speaker 1: House on January six. Couldn't believe it when it happened,
Speaker 1: and Bill Clinton did not resign. By the way, we'll
Speaker 1: continue the conversation coming up of the fastest hour in
Speaker 1: politics as we turned a voter turnout in a conversation
Speaker 1: with Mindy Romero from the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC,
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Voter turnout is something we want to
Speaker 1: focus on and and go a little bit deeper to
Speaker 1: find out who turned out here, because well, obviously some
Speaker 1: expectations were challenged in these mid term elections, and while
Speaker 1: overall turnout was not as high as it was in eighteen,
Speaker 1: it was actually quite a bit higher in certain battleground states,
Speaker 1: those that are keeping our attention. Heard earlier today from
Speaker 1: Professor Darren Shaw of the University of Texas. He's with
Speaker 1: David Weston on balance of power. Looks like the high
Speaker 1: water mark is Pennsylvania. They went from fifty one point seven,
Speaker 1: so about a three point three point increase. Other states
Speaker 1: that were gainers, uh Nevada. And they haven't even counted
Speaker 1: all the ballots. It looks like New Hampshire went up
Speaker 1: about two points, Arizona went up about two points, and
Speaker 1: they're not done counting votes. New York had a tick
Speaker 1: up with a competitive election, not much, but a you know,
Speaker 1: an appreciable increase in terms of raw voters. All told,
Speaker 1: I'm counting about ten states that look like they're going
Speaker 1: to have a turnout increase from again. Mindy Romero is
Speaker 1: founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at
Speaker 1: USC and joins us now on Bloomberg sound On. Thanks
Speaker 1: for being with us, Mindy, when you kind of pull
Speaker 1: out here just for starters, Were your expectations blown out
Speaker 1: of the water for this campaign? Did polsters tell us
Speaker 1: the wrong story going into it, or do we have
Speaker 1: so many tight races? There were so many races within
Speaker 1: the margin of error that you really can't blame them,
Speaker 1: you know, great question, right, So I think we need
Speaker 1: to first differentiate between turnout expectations like actual percent of
Speaker 1: those that are turning out and what turned out and why,
Speaker 1: And you know, the whole battles were control of Congress
Speaker 1: are an individual races. So I think certainly everyone's expectations,
Speaker 1: at least for the last month or two, were that,
Speaker 1: you know, the Republicans were going to win big, there
Speaker 1: was going to be a red ways, uh, and they
Speaker 1: would have a pretty large margin, you know, maybe winning
Speaker 1: by fifteen or gaining fifteen members in the House. Um,
Speaker 1: that clearly is not going to be a red you know,
Speaker 1: not gonna happen. We're not going to see a red way.
Speaker 1: We will see Republicans likely gained control of the House,
Speaker 1: but it will be a much slimmer margin, which will
Speaker 1: make a big difference from McCarthy and how he governs
Speaker 1: and holds his caucus together. Um. There was this wrap
Speaker 1: though going into the election that young people, well, my god,
Speaker 1: they never get out of bed that you know they're
Speaker 1: in the turnout just never happens. We talked about it
Speaker 1: every two years but we heard stories about four hour
Speaker 1: long lines on campus in campus towns in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Speaker 1: How do you how do you rationalize that? Yeah, and
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, I think, you know, I
Speaker 1: I'm one of those researchers that I get, you know,
Speaker 1: call after call prior to any election. Uh and um,
Speaker 1: you know, hearing lots of really high expectations around the
Speaker 1: youth vote, and what typically happens is, uh, those expectations
Speaker 1: are unrealistic. People will assume all kinds of numbers, even
Speaker 1: maybe maybe youth are going to do better than older
Speaker 1: voters in terms of turnout, and then after the election,
Speaker 1: we see this big let down and all the story
Speaker 1: after story that really kind of blames young people for
Speaker 1: not participating, calling them apathetic, you know, in evens, all
Speaker 1: stories blaming young people for the election of Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: and it's really just a blame game. We've kind of
Speaker 1: set young people up to fail. I think the one
Speaker 1: thing that I've seen that's really standing out is media
Speaker 1: coverage has been pretty positive, and I think certainly aided
Speaker 1: by the President of the United States yesterday right calling
Speaker 1: out jendears and thanking them for their participation at the same,
Speaker 1: and though I think that we need to also, you know,
Speaker 1: part out what we're talking about when we talk about
Speaker 1: the strengths as the youth vote. So the President is
Speaker 1: really talking about, for the most part, the fact that
Speaker 1: exit polls are showing that young people, those who voted,
Speaker 1: lean heavily Democratic, and that we would expect now that
Speaker 1: that that those exact margins can change from election to
Speaker 1: election a little bit. But we knew young people were
Speaker 1: gonna swing democratic um in close races young people did
Speaker 1: it looks like turned they turned out maybe higher than
Speaker 1: we would have expected or what would typically be their
Speaker 1: turnout numbers, But overall, if you look at the youth vote,
Speaker 1: it's still much lower. And we have numbers coming out
Speaker 1: of circle right now at of Tuxs University, they regularly
Speaker 1: put out their own estimates of youth turnout. They're very
Speaker 1: respected in this field, and they're saying, and the headline
Speaker 1: mareage if that's the highest of you know, eligible voters,
Speaker 1: youth of votent voters, and they're saying, that's the highest
Speaker 1: that we've seen in a very long time, which is true,
Speaker 1: so we should celebrate that, but it's still you know,
Speaker 1: the difference between a lower turnout year again comparable elections,
Speaker 1: so you know, we're talking to turms here, a lower
Speaker 1: turn out year and a higher tram out year for
Speaker 1: young people typically just a few percentage points. So we
Speaker 1: can celebrate, and I think Democrats when they talk about
Speaker 1: individual races, can celebrate young people right voting for them,
Speaker 1: But at the same time, we still need to keep
Speaker 1: our eye on the price here and understand that overall
Speaker 1: youth turnout is low. It's entrenched in our electoral system
Speaker 1: that is much lower twenty percentage points lower than older
Speaker 1: age groups depending on the election, and young people need
Speaker 1: a lot more support, and overall our election system really
Speaker 1: disadvantages down people. So it's kind of like it's higher
Speaker 1: in these really competitive areas because that's where the candidates
Speaker 1: are actually reaching out to young people, fighting for their
Speaker 1: vote to some degree, and young people feel like they're voted,
Speaker 1: you know, salient in matters and they're kind of part
Speaker 1: of that kind of whole fight for those races. But
Speaker 1: even then they're not really getting as much contact as
Speaker 1: older voters and certainly the rest of the country. So
Speaker 1: is this really a story then? This week, Mindy and
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to get this in because we're short
Speaker 1: on time. Is this more about young people not being
Speaker 1: counted in polling or did Independence who showed up break
Speaker 1: enough to the Democratic side that it made a difference
Speaker 1: in these numbers with you know, a similar sample of
Speaker 1: people simply voting democratic. Yeah, let me be clear. I
Speaker 1: think young people were part of the democratic win here
Speaker 1: certainly as well as Independence period. But they would have
Speaker 1: been a larger story of the election if they had
Speaker 1: higher turnout and they were actually engaged by all, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, all parties and candidates on all issues period.
Speaker 1: Fascinating work that you do, Mindian, and I appreciate you
Speaker 1: coming to see as Mindy Romero's founder and director of
Speaker 1: the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy, and a conversation that
Speaker 1: we're going to turn over to the panel next because
Speaker 1: there's talk of this reckoning for posters coming up here?
Speaker 1: Is it deserved? You don't answer that question without knowing
Speaker 1: who actually showed up here. Did they undercount young people
Speaker 1: or did Independence simply break in a different direction than
Speaker 1: they expected in some very close races. As we sit
Speaker 1: here two days later without a real clue, at least
Speaker 1: not technically of who's going to control either Chamber here
Speaker 1: Republicans are inching closer to getting this done in the House.
Speaker 1: The Senate up in the air with three races that
Speaker 1: have yet to be called. Rick and Jeanie will be
Speaker 1: back next our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: you sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It
Speaker 1: seems like the Polsters are going to get a bad
Speaker 1: rap again. I'm just wondering if they deserve it. Hence
Speaker 1: the conversation that we just had with with Mindy here
Speaker 1: on sound On. I want to hear from the panel
Speaker 1: on this though. We we heard predictions of a red wave.
Speaker 1: We got what everyone's calling a red ripple or something.
Speaker 1: But there were so many close races within the margin
Speaker 1: that it's almost unfair. Maybe not Rick Davis and Genie
Speaker 1: Schanzana or the experts Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, when you
Speaker 1: look inside the polls that we were talking about, and
Speaker 1: we tend to go with the averages here right last
Speaker 1: many weeks, we've been hitting real clear and five thirty eight.
Speaker 1: Some of them were dead on others were not, but
Speaker 1: there were so many races within the margin. Can you
Speaker 1: blame polsters? You know, I don't think you can blame
Speaker 1: polsters in this case, and you know, and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: a few reasons why. And I'm so glad you connected
Speaker 1: it to turn out. Number one, polls are really notoriously
Speaker 1: bad about predicting future behavior, and that's what you're doing
Speaker 1: with pre election polling. As your conversation just showed, turnout
Speaker 1: is what matters. That's the only real true poll. The
Speaker 1: second thing is is that, as you mentioned in tight
Speaker 1: races were like almost evenly divided in this country, fifty fifty,
Speaker 1: so you get it, You get a pole result. It
Speaker 1: sounds very decisive, and you know, fifty two forty six percent,
Speaker 1: the reality is going to be a plus or minus
Speaker 1: four or five and most polls, so you're swinging from
Speaker 1: forty to fifty or fifty five to sixty five, and
Speaker 1: that's really where many of these races ended up. So
Speaker 1: I think that's part of it. But I would say
Speaker 1: Nate Cohen from the New York Times made a really
Speaker 1: important point. Traditional polling that we are, you know, usually
Speaker 1: familiar with those posters didn't pull as much this time around,
Speaker 1: we had a lot of partisan polling going on, and
Speaker 1: they don't adhere to industry standards, and so Republican posters
Speaker 1: were leaning right, and that is what I think swayed
Speaker 1: some of the thinking that in the last few weeks
Speaker 1: in particular, Republicans may do better than expected. Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: you have run poles, you have been at the mercy
Speaker 1: of polls. I wonder when you look across the country
Speaker 1: and what we've learned here in the last couple of days,
Speaker 1: knowing that young people who don't have land lines, don't
Speaker 1: always have consistent addresses, and also don't like talking to
Speaker 1: polsters are difficult to measure, and and the MAGA crowd,
Speaker 1: as we've heard any number of rallies take pride and
Speaker 1: hanging up on posters. How in the world do you
Speaker 1: get a good sample. It's really hard to get a
Speaker 1: good sample. Used to be you call one people and
Speaker 1: you get one to do your entire thirty minute poll.
Speaker 1: Now it's like one in a hundred uh And that
Speaker 1: even you know, degrades the sample even more. That's why
Speaker 1: you see air rates uh increasing sometimes eight percent in
Speaker 1: a poll. Why take the poll if you got an
Speaker 1: eight percent a rate. So um, I do think one
Speaker 1: of the things though, the point you just made about
Speaker 1: young voters, they're all predicated on a model, and the
Speaker 1: models are historic. So when young people do something or
Speaker 1: any other voter group that's different than what they've done
Speaker 1: in the past, it messes everybody's pulling them. And in
Speaker 1: this case, you know, other than two thousand eighteen, there
Speaker 1: was a higher turnout for young people than ever before,
Speaker 1: and so you know, blame it on the voter behavior.
Speaker 1: They're always screwing up the best posters. Uh. But this
Speaker 1: point Genie makes about politicizing polling, you know, you can't
Speaker 1: even look at these real clear politics averages anymore because
Speaker 1: half the polls in them are sponsored by parties and
Speaker 1: you can't rely on those. So I think there's going
Speaker 1: to be a real come up and at some point
Speaker 1: in the industry because legitimate polsters are being overwhelmed by
Speaker 1: you know, these sort of fake uh party polling. Wow. Well,
Speaker 1: so then then Genie, there is a reckoning coming, whether
Speaker 1: it's deserved or not, there is, and there should be,
Speaker 1: and that's where people like you know, in the media
Speaker 1: and others have to be very very careful. I too,
Speaker 1: look at real queer politics averages, we all do, but
Speaker 1: it's very hard when you're looking at those big averages
Speaker 1: of pulling to tease out which we're conducted in a
Speaker 1: way that meets industry standards for transparency and data collection,
Speaker 1: and some of them do and some of them don't.
Speaker 1: And the ones that don't, with close races, can really
Speaker 1: sway what we're thinking. And so that coupled with the
Speaker 1: fact that again a lot of are you know, tried
Speaker 1: and true polsters have decided they're not going to engage
Speaker 1: in public election polling because it's just not beneficial to them,
Speaker 1: and so they have stepped back, especially in the last
Speaker 1: few weeks, and that has made the you know, sort
Speaker 1: of goal of predicting really really difficult. And you know,
Speaker 1: on this issue of youth turn out, I want to
Speaker 1: underscore what your previous guests just said, what Mindy said
Speaker 1: is up. But it is still less than three out
Speaker 1: of ten eighteen to nine year olds voting, if that
Speaker 1: is you know, we I too was cheering it today
Speaker 1: in class. Way to go, guys, and it's still less
Speaker 1: than than three out of ten. We should do much
Speaker 1: much better we make voting in our country to what
Speaker 1: is it Gin. You spend every day with a classroom
Speaker 1: full are they is it the cliche they're just lazy?
Speaker 1: Or they are they smoking weed and sleeping on mom's couch?
Speaker 1: Or do they not think it matters? No, it's not.
Speaker 1: I don't believe it's it's any of the above, you know,
Speaker 1: not to be you know, speak for the entire group,
Speaker 1: But I think just in the case of college students,
Speaker 1: they are in school today. This is not a time
Speaker 1: when they can get out. They are institutionalized populations. They
Speaker 1: have to work and go to school, and so it's
Speaker 1: hard on a Tuesday and voting hours, especially if you
Speaker 1: go to school as many students do away from home.
Speaker 1: Many of them don't have hours or transportation to get home.
Speaker 1: So if you didn't think in my state, in my
Speaker 1: state of New York, if you didn't think to get
Speaker 1: an early ballot before October, I think it was fourteenth,
Speaker 1: you are out of luck. And when you're nineteen twenty,
Speaker 1: sometimes you're not thinking a month or two in advance
Speaker 1: to get a ballot. So we can make it much
Speaker 1: easier for the entire population to get out and vote. Well,
Speaker 1: you do wonder what the heck is gonna happen. Rick,
Speaker 1: with two potentially two men over eighty running for the
Speaker 1: White House at the top of the ticket in two years.
Speaker 1: That going to bring young people out, that'll drive them away.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a reason why only three and ten
Speaker 1: vote because it's so detached from anything in their lives,
Speaker 1: and and it should be a little bit detached. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's it's once you know, people start
Speaker 1: paying taxes and get in the workforce and that's becoming
Speaker 1: part of the system, they get more politically excited. So
Speaker 1: good night, you talking about firedness. Yeah, yeah, that's right. Genie.
Speaker 1: Keep inspiring. As as we spend time with Rick and Genie,
Speaker 1: who inspire us every day, I have to ask you
Speaker 1: about this new assault on the and or president. Apparently
Speaker 1: the conservative news media has decided to turn the guns
Speaker 1: at Donald Trump. Listen to the lieutenant governor of Virginia.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've heard this today. You start
Speaker 1: looking around for examples here. You know, It's one thing
Speaker 1: for the former president to be uh framed as Humpty
Speaker 1: Dumpy on the cover of the New York Post, but
Speaker 1: in this case, on Fox News Business Today, the lieutenant
Speaker 1: governor of Virginia, who was the National chair of Black
Speaker 1: Americans to reelect the president in winsome sears. You know,
Speaker 1: the voters have spoken, and they have said that they
Speaker 1: want a different leader, and a true leader understands when
Speaker 1: they have become a liability. A true leader understands that
Speaker 1: it's time to step off the stage. And the voters
Speaker 1: have given us that very clear message. On this same day,
Speaker 1: a Wall Street Journal editorial dubbs Trump the Republican Party's
Speaker 1: biggest loser, which must be driving him wild at Mara
Speaker 1: a Lago. He's one of his favorite insults, of course,
Speaker 1: And then again that New York Post cover Don who
Speaker 1: couldn't build a wall had a great fall. Rick, is
Speaker 1: this advantage, Rhonda Santis, Well, my favorite new nickname is
Speaker 1: Trumpty dumpty um. That's pretty funny cover. Yeah, it's pretty funny,
Speaker 1: all of Uh yeah, I mean, look, I mean this
Speaker 1: is the reaction, right, I mean, like there are people
Speaker 1: now looking to scramble. I think this is the most
Speaker 1: vulnerable Donald Trump's been since January sixth. Uh yeah. The
Speaker 1: reality is that he does not have the kind of
Speaker 1: grip on the party today that that he had going
Speaker 1: into this election. And and for good reason, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's sitting on a hundred million dollars that didn't spend
Speaker 1: on people he was endorsing. Uh. He gave the party
Speaker 1: people that couldn't win in a general through his endorsement. Uh.
Speaker 1: And and and he's basically threatened the entire party that
Speaker 1: if you don't become an election denier, you're not a Republican.
Speaker 1: So he's creating all these false uh expectations that can't
Speaker 1: be delivered on and then complains when it's not delivered.
Speaker 1: So I think there is a reckoning happening and and
Speaker 1: and and maybe he is able to pull it back
Speaker 1: like he did before. But right now there's a scramble
Speaker 1: for leadership. And and you know, you don't have to
Speaker 1: look very far to find a lot of people. Governor Young,
Speaker 1: can you know, Governor DeSantis, you know Governor Abbott. All
Speaker 1: these guys had great nights and they're all looking for
Speaker 1: a national role. Boy, this is uh, this is interesting something.
Speaker 1: He's typically empowered by this type of thing. But to
Speaker 1: see the entire uh Murdoch News empire, media empire turn
Speaker 1: on Donald Trump, you wonder if this is an indicator
Speaker 1: Gene either talking about or at least he's alluding to
Speaker 1: jumping into the race for president next week, and some
Speaker 1: are suggesting in the Republican Party that he take advantage.
Speaker 1: I don't mean to use this that term the wrong way,
Speaker 1: but use the storm, used the hurricane as an excuse
Speaker 1: to not do it next week. What do you think happens.
Speaker 1: I don't know what everybody's talking about. Sure, de Santist
Speaker 1: won Florida, but Trump got more votes than to santis Right,
Speaker 1: that's yeah, that's what he was saying. I don't know
Speaker 1: what everybody's talking about. My favorite New York post, by
Speaker 1: the way, was the Future as opposed to santis Um.
Speaker 1: And you know John pud Hoards saying he's like a
Speaker 1: can of raid, the most profound voter repellent in American history.
Speaker 1: So he's getting hit very hard. Everybody is suggesting, subtly
Speaker 1: or not so subtly, that he doesn't announce before December
Speaker 1: six if he's going to and use, as you said,
Speaker 1: the hurricane is an excuse. But it's Donald Trump, and
Speaker 1: what hit would it be to his ego? He didn't
Speaker 1: just subtly say he might consider doing this. On Tuesday,
Speaker 1: he said he was going to do it, and now
Speaker 1: he would have to not do it. So you can
Speaker 1: imagine that it's going to be a great beginning of
Speaker 1: the week. The tweet the truth I guess called this
Speaker 1: is Donald Trump. Now that the election in Florida is
Speaker 1: over and everything went quite well, shouldn't it be said
Speaker 1: that in twenty I got one million more votes in
Speaker 1: Florida than Ronde got this year, asking Rick Davis, grievance, grievance, grievance,
Speaker 1: I mean, please, is he reading the writing on the
Speaker 1: wall though, I mean he knows that this is for real?
Speaker 1: Should he postpone that announcement? Rick? Uh, look, I don't
Speaker 1: think he should ever make that announcement. Forget to postpone it. Please,
Speaker 1: Just that there's a tee time waiting for you, Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: If you were looking out for Donald Trump, though, is
Speaker 1: that the right call for him? If I were looking
Speaker 1: out for Donald Trump, I would cancel the meeting or
Speaker 1: have some reason to postpone it. But my guess is
Speaker 1: he feels vulnerable, and that's usually when he does the
Speaker 1: craziest things right, and the horses out of the barn,
Speaker 1: that's the fifteenth. We'll deal with that when the time
Speaker 1: comes Jennie. Thank you, Rick Davis. Of course our signature panel.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Is this week over yet?
Speaker 1: We'll meet you tomorrow. This is Bloomberg