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Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on

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Speaker 1: the American people made it clear they don't want every

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Speaker 1: day going forward to be a constant political bass. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna be an administration that will work with everyone. Were

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Speaker 1: just because we didn't get across the finish line and

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Speaker 1: does not mean it's over. Bloomberg Sound on Politics, Policy

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Speaker 1: and Perspective from DC's top name. I'd rather be in

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Speaker 1: our position than representable boards position. But again, we're winning,

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Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean we want I don't ask people

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Speaker 1: for money because I've won all the races that I've

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Speaker 1: been in over my life except one um the Big Life.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Control

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Speaker 1: of the US Senate becomes a best of three. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the fastest hour in politics is the volk Counting

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Speaker 1: continues in some key races that will decide majorities on

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Speaker 1: Capitol Hill. We're not there yet, still no call on

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Speaker 1: the House, and the Senate is indeed coming down to

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Speaker 1: just three states that are still undecided. All the It

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Speaker 1: is from Jessica Taylor, The Cook Political Report and Analysis

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Speaker 1: from our signature panel with Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis

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Speaker 1: and Jeanie Chanzy No later, Independence and young people challenge

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Speaker 1: voting models around the country. We talked turnout, coming up

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Speaker 1: with Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy

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Speaker 1: at USC. Here we are two days later, and we

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Speaker 1: still don't hunt know which party controls the House or

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Speaker 1: the Senate. Though if you seem at this point to

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Speaker 1: doubt that Republicans will eventually take the House, kind of

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Speaker 1: a matter of time. Here the GOP is only about

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Speaker 1: a dozen seats away, maybe a bit less with the

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Speaker 1: number of seats out west that have yet to be called.

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Speaker 1: They include the Bobert seat, Colorado's third districts. Lauren Bobert

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Speaker 1: is now leading her challenger. I don't know if you've

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Speaker 1: been following this, of course, she just tweeted winning has

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Speaker 1: been leading by what we're both just not even four

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Speaker 1: hundred points. Adam Frisch is the Democrat in this case.

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Speaker 1: He was up by about sixty points when I woke

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Speaker 1: up this morning. Now Lauren Bobert is in the lead,

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Speaker 1: and she was out speaking today at a round table

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Speaker 1: in which she was assailing health officials responsible for the

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Speaker 1: nation's response to COVID and while she was at it

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Speaker 1: with the idea of being accused or I guess tired

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Speaker 1: of being accused an election denier. She had deniers of

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Speaker 1: any member of Congress, from the upcoming freshman class to

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Speaker 1: those in leadership who won't fight with me to end

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Speaker 1: medical tyranny, secure the southern border, expel Anthony Fauci. They

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Speaker 1: will not have my support, not in their reelection, and

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Speaker 1: certainly not for speaker that was that sepack back in August,

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Speaker 1: invoking a whole other story that we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about a bit later on with our panel, because we

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Speaker 1: keep hearing the knives around for Kevin McCarthy, but they

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Speaker 1: haven't even called the house yet. On the Senate side,

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Speaker 1: it's down to three as we keep talking here. You

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Speaker 1: know Georgia, we know is going to a runoff. That

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Speaker 1: one's gonna take a month, as Senator Raphael Warnock reminded

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Speaker 1: supporters today, So I'm going to need you to stick

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Speaker 1: with me for four more weeks? Can we do that?

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Speaker 1: Four more weeks? The sixth of December will of course

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Speaker 1: be tracking that for you, But we don't know if

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Speaker 1: it's going to be the race that decides control. We're

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Speaker 1: waiting on Arizona and Nevada as well. Mark Kelly is

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Speaker 1: holding ahead in Arizona. We're not sure exactly where things

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Speaker 1: are going in Nevada. Even with Adam Laxalt leading. It

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Speaker 1: appears that the incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortes Masto may

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Speaker 1: have the votes in waiting with malins that have yet

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Speaker 1: to be counted from Reno from Las Vegas that could

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Speaker 1: lean democratic. So that's where we start the conversation with

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Speaker 1: Jessica Taylor, Senate and governor's editor of the Cook Political Report. Jessica, welcome.

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Speaker 1: I hope you have had a chance to get some

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Speaker 1: sleep here over the last couple of days, because it's

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Speaker 1: not done yet. Do we know when these races could

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Speaker 1: be called Arizona, Nevada. Are we waiting into the weekend

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Speaker 1: or what I think we're waiting into the weekend, perhaps

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Speaker 1: even early next week. UM, we should get some more

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Speaker 1: ballots tonight in both of those states. But again, UM,

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Speaker 1: as of the last time I checked this afternoon, it

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Speaker 1: was still unclear exactly how many full count of how

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Speaker 1: many ballots um in both of those states. But I

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Speaker 1: think that things are moving either are in the right

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Speaker 1: direction or moving in the right direction for Democrats in

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Speaker 1: both of those states. UM. You mentioned In Nevada Catherine

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Speaker 1: Cortis Master who was long thought to be the most

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Speaker 1: vulnerable Democratic income but excuse me, UM been talking a

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Speaker 1: lot these fast few days, as he is narrowly behind

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Speaker 1: her Republican challenger at this point, Adam black Salt. However, again,

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Speaker 1: where those outstanding ballots are in the fact that they

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Speaker 1: are mail in ballots that typically lean more Democratic. UM,

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Speaker 1: that is good news for her. She's currently winning those

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Speaker 1: at a clip of about six She's winning about the

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Speaker 1: five percent of those. UM. Nevada politics guru John Rawlstons

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Speaker 1: who we all follow there, UM, and he said he's

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Speaker 1: calculated that she only actually needs to win fifty five.

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Speaker 1: So even if her margins go down, if some of

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Speaker 1: the more rural counties that are going to be more

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Speaker 1: lax all friendly come in, UH, that means that she's

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Speaker 1: still in good shape. UM. In Arizona, Mark Kelly is

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Speaker 1: up by about five points. But actually it sort seems

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Speaker 1: to be a mix of votes and there's some in

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Speaker 1: person some day of and particularly some that people delivered

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Speaker 1: hand delivered to polling places, UM, which can often trend

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Speaker 1: more Republicans so we expect that lead to drop, but

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Speaker 1: I think he's ahead far enough where Democrats are still

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Speaker 1: favorite in both and that's important because that means that

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Speaker 1: the runoffs in Georgia would not be for control of

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Speaker 1: the Senate. And you know, again, Democrats might actually pick

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Speaker 1: up one season the Senate, which would be something when

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Speaker 1: we look at history. So we'll learn in the next

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Speaker 1: few days. You'd like to think maybe through this weekend,

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Speaker 1: as we said in the outset, whether Georgie is really

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Speaker 1: gonna matter. If it's not the decisive votes, then it

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Speaker 1: becomes gravy potentially for Democrats that they can add another

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Speaker 1: seat here. But my goodness, I I just that race

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Speaker 1: could get into looney Tunes over the next month. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And it's just a question of how much pressure there's

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Speaker 1: going to be on these candidates to get this done

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Speaker 1: as far as the House is concerned. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're watching Lauren Bolbert's seat because she's she's famous or

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Speaker 1: infamous depending on who you're asking. But what are the

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Speaker 1: seats to watch at this point? Where is this going

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Speaker 1: to be decided in California? I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: it's coming in California, Some in the West weast Washington, Oregon.

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Speaker 1: My colleague Dave Wasserman covers those, and I think in

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Speaker 1: California we don't particularly know exactly what is outstanding still,

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Speaker 1: and that can take weeks to count truly a lot

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Speaker 1: of mail there as well. And remember a lot of

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Speaker 1: these ballots, as long as their postmarks by election day,

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Speaker 1: they can still be counted. I could come in days

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Speaker 1: after him. That includes a lot of military ballots as well,

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Speaker 1: of course from overseas. So while the whole argument takes

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Speaker 1: place around you know, the leadership of the big battle

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Speaker 1: of who's going to hold the gavel, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be quite a while before we actually it can can

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Speaker 1: call this, uh, most likely for Republicans. I mean, Kevin

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Speaker 1: McCarthy was out there on election night taking credit here.

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Speaker 1: At what point does you know, does this start to

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Speaker 1: age poorly? Well, um, I think that's just where it is. Again,

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Speaker 1: Republicans only needed five House seats to flip this, and

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Speaker 1: it looked like that well the game would be higher

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Speaker 1: than that, but only barely. And the fact, you know,

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Speaker 1: McCarthy was talking last year that the Republicans could flip

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Speaker 1: as many a sixty House seats well, with a number

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Speaker 1: of competitive ones that have been shrunk um. That's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily the truth wasn't accurate then. But also where that

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Speaker 1: margin may end up coming into play is in redistressing

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Speaker 1: a couple of seats that Republican Republicans were able to

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Speaker 1: draw in their favor and pick off either and newly

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Speaker 1: drawn seats or and seats that were you know, the

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Speaker 1: party um, party power changed, who did best in which

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Speaker 1: to a certain things too, so they had an edge

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Speaker 1: in there. Didn't look like, of course they were going

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Speaker 1: to need that necessarily, could just pa their totals, But

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Speaker 1: right now it could be decisive. Again, I think this

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Speaker 1: is going to be close and far below what Republicans

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Speaker 1: were aiming for. Jessica. Looking at the governor's race as

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Speaker 1: you are, the governor's editor for Cook in Arizona, Katie

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Speaker 1: Hobbs is still ahead by just about a point or

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Speaker 1: one percentage point, if if we can call it that.

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Speaker 1: I'm rounding a little bit here, But carry Lake is

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Speaker 1: talking a big game still, uh, calling out the voting

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Speaker 1: infrastructure in Arizona, voting officials and so forth. That's a race,

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Speaker 1: you know, we talk about the Senate race for the

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Speaker 1: balance of power in Washington but that's a race we've

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Speaker 1: gotta be watching closely as well. Will those be called

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Speaker 1: around the same time. I expect so, since we're looking

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Speaker 1: at the same ballots. But yeah, you're right, I mean

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Speaker 1: for her though she is running ahead of lake Masters,

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Speaker 1: which is not that surprising. So I think this is

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Speaker 1: a state where we can see a split decision um So.

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Speaker 1: And again remember people come playing about the time it

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Speaker 1: takes a count ballast I is nothing new, especially in Arizona.

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Speaker 1: And I think you can kind of if you want

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Speaker 1: to count them fast and you could have more errors.

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Speaker 1: So it's like do you want to fast or do

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Speaker 1: you want them kind of accurately. And it really could

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Speaker 1: be interesting to watch her because I think of any

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Speaker 1: of the people, UM, she is certainly going to claim

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Speaker 1: fraud if she wins. She's still going to claim that

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Speaker 1: if she wins and a Slate Masters loses is a

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Speaker 1: question I'm currently pondering. However, I will say that some

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Speaker 1: of these you know, election deniers that Trump had backed UM,

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Speaker 1: particularly in Michigan, Wisconsin, UM different places. I was pleased

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Speaker 1: on a lesson. I did see some of those after

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Speaker 1: those races became clear. They didn't see it and conceived gracefully. UM,

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Speaker 1: so we're seeing less of that. But um, you know,

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Speaker 1: just again, it is a sad thing that we have

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Speaker 1: to actually remind us that should not be out of

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Speaker 1: the ordinary. UM. But I think certainly Arizona is a

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Speaker 1: place where she is making noise and it's a very

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Speaker 1: loud voice there. It's great to have you back with us, Jessica,

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Speaker 1: rest up reast the voice, if anything. Jessica Taylor from

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Speaker 1: Cook Political Report getting us started off here on Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: sound on IM. Joe, Matthew and Washington want to talk

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Speaker 1: to the panel quickly on this because they've been watching

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Speaker 1: this as closely and I've been as deep into this

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Speaker 1: as anyone over the past couple of days. Rick Davis

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Speaker 1: and Jennie Chanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, you've of course

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Speaker 1: had an eye on Arizona and and you're the expert

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Speaker 1: on Arizona politics. Could we get a call tonight after

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Speaker 1: the next dump of votes? Probably not. Um, you'll get

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Speaker 1: another couple of hundred times hundred, fifty thousand, hundred seventy

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Speaker 1: five thousand tonight. You've still got like four hundred thousand outstanding.

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Speaker 1: It's still gonna be close. But the more goes out,

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Speaker 1: we're learning a lot. And one of the things we're

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Speaker 1: learning is that these uh same day absentee ballot um

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Speaker 1: drop offs uh as of last night, and that's pretty

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Speaker 1: good sample over a hundred fifty thousand. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: they were much less Republican than they were in I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, we have a lot to compare to because

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Speaker 1: they do this every year and uh, and everyone was

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Speaker 1: surprised that both Kitty Hobbs and Mark Kelly actually picked

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Speaker 1: up votes. They they should have been losing votes along

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Speaker 1: the way. So, um, this's got a lot of head

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Speaker 1: scratching going on in Arizona. But tonight we'll tell us

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Speaker 1: even more. Jennie is Lauren Bloeberg gonna keep her job?

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Speaker 1: You know she thinks she is. I think it is

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Speaker 1: still a big question. But but let's not you know,

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Speaker 1: under let's underscore rather the fact that fort to knock

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Speaker 1: off an incumbent in the House is a big f

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Speaker 1: and deal, as Biden would say, So if Adam Frish

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Speaker 1: does this, it is a huge, huge upset on his part,

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Speaker 1: and he is well within striking distance. And we're just

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Speaker 1: getting started on the fastest hour in politics. Rick and

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Speaker 1: Jennie will stay right where they are as we continue

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Speaker 1: the conversation about the battle for leadership here in Washington.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The

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Speaker 1: back room drama in the US House is fun to watch,

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Speaker 1: but you wonder how it ends as they report knives

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Speaker 1: out for Kevin McCarthy, although maybe he's whistling past the graveyard.

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Speaker 1: But Steve Scalise, of course, this is the man who

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Speaker 1: would be either majority leader or maybe even speaker. He'd

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Speaker 1: be the man to challenge Kevin McCarthy if he's coming

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Speaker 1: off of the mid term showing weakness, he told Fox

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Speaker 1: News Today, Now he's on board. Look, we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: our elections next week. I'm supporting Kevin McCarthy for speaker

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Speaker 1: and he'll win that race. And ultimately, you've seen us

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Speaker 1: pull together these last few months and focus on the

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Speaker 1: attack against big government socialism. Reassemble the panel with the

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Speaker 1: talking points in place. Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzy, No,

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Speaker 1: we're here, Rick, At what point you have to say

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Speaker 1: that publicly? Right at what point does this get ugly.

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Speaker 1: It's probably getting ugly already. Um. I think that you know,

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Speaker 1: these members are a club. It's a very exclusive club.

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Speaker 1: They talked to each other more than they talk to

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Speaker 1: anybody else. Uh. And my guess is the various factions

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Speaker 1: within the House Republican Caucus, you know, whether they're the

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Speaker 1: far right or the moderates. Uh. And Kevin McCarthy kind

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Speaker 1: of smack dab in between and his leadership team are

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Speaker 1: all scrambling to try and figure out how to make

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Speaker 1: heads or tails of this. And and of course some

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Speaker 1: of these people who have yet to be even determined

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Speaker 1: are they going to be members of Congress in the

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Speaker 1: Republican her Democratic caucus are going to make a big difference.

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Speaker 1: And uh And and so the fact that they still

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Speaker 1: don't know really does limited a bit. But there is

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Speaker 1: already a lot of haggling going on is to how

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Speaker 1: to peel together enough votes to win the speakership. It's

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Speaker 1: pretty fascinating stuff here, Genie. And you know this is

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Speaker 1: really inside politics, but it's gonna it's gonna really matter

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Speaker 1: obviously what it comes down to who is holding the gavel.

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Speaker 1: This would not be the first time if if he

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Speaker 1: doesn't make it, that Kevin McCarthy fails in his quest

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Speaker 1: to be leader, should we be talking about other names here?

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Speaker 1: Is at least Stafonic on board or is she allied

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Speaker 1: with him? Who's who should we be looking at other

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Speaker 1: than Steve Skalie, You know, I think at least Stafonic

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Speaker 1: would be a fascinating choice, and not just because I'm

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Speaker 1: from New York and she has proven that she will

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Speaker 1: do what it takes to move ahead if she can.

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Speaker 1: I think that Kevin McCarthy is still in the running.

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Speaker 1: I think he should go take lessons from Nancy Pelosi

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Speaker 1: if she would be willing to help him, because he's

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Speaker 1: going to find himself in a if he is speaker again,

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Speaker 1: he's going to find himself in a very similar situation.

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Speaker 1: He's going to be trapped between a far right as

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Speaker 1: opposed to far left, you know, sort of small group

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Speaker 1: of say twenty thirty members plus or minus, and then

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Speaker 1: much larger group of moderates, and he's going to be

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Speaker 1: squeezed between those. And one person in the modern era

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Speaker 1: who's shown that she can actually maneuver through that is

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Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi. And this seems to be where we are headed,

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Speaker 1: whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans, with the speakers

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Speaker 1: and the leadership having to try to work through a

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Speaker 1: far right or left of their caucus and the moderates.

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Speaker 1: And she was able to do that with people like

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Speaker 1: AOC in the squad. She did it successfully. He should

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Speaker 1: take lessons from her. Yeah, if this became a Scalise

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Speaker 1: a speakership, Rick would would at least deponic be the

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Speaker 1: shoe in for majority leader. Uh yeah, not necessarily. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if Scalise winds up getting the capperd seat, you know,

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Speaker 1: for what, And and you'll have to assume that there's

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Speaker 1: been a decapitation move on on, you know, Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 1: to do that. He's probably gonna look at this and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I want to be surrounded by my people, not Kevin's people.

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Speaker 1: And and usually if you have that kind of tumult

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Speaker 1: in the leadership, that's full on regime change in that

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Speaker 1: that's that's regime change. Wow, what do you mean decapitate?

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Speaker 1: Tell her this is what you mean by that? I

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Speaker 1: mean what I mean is, you know, take him out

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Speaker 1: from the expected position of speakership. I don't mean to

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Speaker 1: actually take his hand. No, of course, although maybe we

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Speaker 1: do need to be more specific in least day in

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Speaker 1: this day and age, uh, Genie. Nancy Pelosi is watching this,

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Speaker 1: of course, and maybe she does have advice, but she

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Speaker 1: needs to figure out her own life right now. Is

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Speaker 1: she going to resign? Yeah, I mean, I think we'll

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Speaker 1: be waiting to hear. What we're hearing is they'll have

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Speaker 1: their leadership elections late in November. She's obviously at cope

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Speaker 1: and we're just I think we the Democrats, they are

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Speaker 1: waiting to see will she, you know, step down? Um?

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Speaker 1: Or is she just going to try to maintain And

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Speaker 1: I think we know who's in waiting, primarily another New

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Speaker 1: Yorker on the other side is a Kim Jefferies, who

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Speaker 1: many people feel that if she does step down, he

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Speaker 1: is the person next in line for that that leadership post.

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Speaker 1: But again in deference to Nancy Pelosi, people are waiting,

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Speaker 1: and I think, you know, on Kevin McCarthy another person

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Speaker 1: to watch if it isn't and and Rick's decapitation if

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Speaker 1: it occurs. Somebody to watch is Jim Jordan's. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's not a lot of love lost there, and I'm

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Speaker 1: serious about that, though Rick does Jim Jordan have a

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Speaker 1: chance at that level of leadership, not a snowball's chance

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Speaker 1: in HeLa Ben Arizona. Look, I mean there is a

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Speaker 1: Jim Jordan's all of whom you know, would have probably

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Speaker 1: a broader base of support. And I would say, you know,

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Speaker 1: remember one thing. You don't have to be a member

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Speaker 1: of Congress to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 1: And so if there's a grand bargain, how about Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump as Speaker of the House. I mean, like Kevin

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Speaker 1: McCarthy works for him already, so why not make it

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Speaker 1: an and Rick Davidson not a snowball's chance to Jim Jordan,

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Speaker 1: but he's going with Donald Trump for a speaker. I

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Speaker 1: I love, I'm just causing trouble. This is good. This

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Speaker 1: is the kind of trouble that we love. It did

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Speaker 1: make me think of yesterday. I was talking to a

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Speaker 1: friend who worked with in Washington, d CNE and we

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Speaker 1: both remember this day. It was December nine, and I'm

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Speaker 1: sure you both remember it. And Rick, you probably have

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Speaker 1: a story. But sometimes you come awfully close to being speaker.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes you have become speaker and it still doesn't work out.

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Speaker 1: Remember a guy named Bob Livingstone, anybody come with me

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Speaker 1: back again? December was a different time in Washington thanks

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Speaker 1: to Larry Flint, who put a story out there about

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Speaker 1: his extra marital affair. I was prepared to lead our

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Speaker 1: narrow majority of Speaker, and I believe I had it

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Speaker 1: in me to do a fine job. But I cannot

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Speaker 1: do that job or be the kind of leader that

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Speaker 1: I would like to be under current circum stances. So

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Speaker 1: I must set the example that I hope President Clinton

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Speaker 1: will follow. I will not stand for Speaker of the

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Speaker 1: House on January six. Couldn't believe it when it happened,

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Speaker 1: and Bill Clinton did not resign. By the way, we'll

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Speaker 1: continue the conversation coming up of the fastest hour in

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Speaker 1: politics as we turned a voter turnout in a conversation

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Speaker 1: with Mindy Romero from the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC,

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Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Voter turnout is something we want to

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Speaker 1: focus on and and go a little bit deeper to

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Speaker 1: find out who turned out here, because well, obviously some

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Speaker 1: expectations were challenged in these mid term elections, and while

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Speaker 1: overall turnout was not as high as it was in eighteen,

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Speaker 1: it was actually quite a bit higher in certain battleground states,

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Speaker 1: those that are keeping our attention. Heard earlier today from

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Speaker 1: Professor Darren Shaw of the University of Texas. He's with

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Speaker 1: David Weston on balance of power. Looks like the high

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Speaker 1: water mark is Pennsylvania. They went from fifty one point seven,

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Speaker 1: so about a three point three point increase. Other states

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Speaker 1: that were gainers, uh Nevada. And they haven't even counted

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Speaker 1: all the ballots. It looks like New Hampshire went up

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Speaker 1: about two points, Arizona went up about two points, and

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Speaker 1: they're not done counting votes. New York had a tick

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Speaker 1: up with a competitive election, not much, but a you know,

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Speaker 1: an appreciable increase in terms of raw voters. All told,

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Speaker 1: I'm counting about ten states that look like they're going

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Speaker 1: to have a turnout increase from again. Mindy Romero is

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Speaker 1: founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at

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Speaker 1: USC and joins us now on Bloomberg sound On. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for being with us, Mindy, when you kind of pull

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Speaker 1: out here just for starters, Were your expectations blown out

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Speaker 1: of the water for this campaign? Did polsters tell us

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Speaker 1: the wrong story going into it, or do we have

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Speaker 1: so many tight races? There were so many races within

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Speaker 1: the margin of error that you really can't blame them,

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Speaker 1: you know, great question, right, So I think we need

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Speaker 1: to first differentiate between turnout expectations like actual percent of

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Speaker 1: those that are turning out and what turned out and why,

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Speaker 1: And you know, the whole battles were control of Congress

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Speaker 1: are an individual races. So I think certainly everyone's expectations,

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Speaker 1: at least for the last month or two, were that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Republicans were going to win big, there

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Speaker 1: was going to be a red ways, uh, and they

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Speaker 1: would have a pretty large margin, you know, maybe winning

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Speaker 1: by fifteen or gaining fifteen members in the House. Um,

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Speaker 1: that clearly is not going to be a red you know,

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Speaker 1: not gonna happen. We're not going to see a red way.

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Speaker 1: We will see Republicans likely gained control of the House,

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Speaker 1: but it will be a much slimmer margin, which will

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Speaker 1: make a big difference from McCarthy and how he governs

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Speaker 1: and holds his caucus together. Um. There was this wrap

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Speaker 1: though going into the election that young people, well, my god,

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Speaker 1: they never get out of bed that you know they're

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Speaker 1: in the turnout just never happens. We talked about it

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Speaker 1: every two years but we heard stories about four hour

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Speaker 1: long lines on campus in campus towns in Wisconsin and Michigan.

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Speaker 1: How do you how do you rationalize that? Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, I think, you know, I

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Speaker 1: I'm one of those researchers that I get, you know,

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Speaker 1: call after call prior to any election. Uh and um,

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Speaker 1: you know, hearing lots of really high expectations around the

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Speaker 1: youth vote, and what typically happens is, uh, those expectations

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Speaker 1: are unrealistic. People will assume all kinds of numbers, even

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Speaker 1: maybe maybe youth are going to do better than older

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Speaker 1: voters in terms of turnout, and then after the election,

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Speaker 1: we see this big let down and all the story

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Speaker 1: after story that really kind of blames young people for

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Speaker 1: not participating, calling them apathetic, you know, in evens, all

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Speaker 1: stories blaming young people for the election of Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: and it's really just a blame game. We've kind of

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Speaker 1: set young people up to fail. I think the one

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Speaker 1: thing that I've seen that's really standing out is media

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Speaker 1: coverage has been pretty positive, and I think certainly aided

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Speaker 1: by the President of the United States yesterday right calling

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Speaker 1: out jendears and thanking them for their participation at the same,

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Speaker 1: and though I think that we need to also, you know,

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Speaker 1: part out what we're talking about when we talk about

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Speaker 1: the strengths as the youth vote. So the President is

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Speaker 1: really talking about, for the most part, the fact that

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Speaker 1: exit polls are showing that young people, those who voted,

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Speaker 1: lean heavily Democratic, and that we would expect now that

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Speaker 1: that that those exact margins can change from election to

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Speaker 1: election a little bit. But we knew young people were

430
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: gonna swing democratic um in close races young people did

431
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: it looks like turned they turned out maybe higher than

432
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 1: we would have expected or what would typically be their

433
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: turnout numbers, But overall, if you look at the youth vote,

434
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: it's still much lower. And we have numbers coming out

435
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: of circle right now at of Tuxs University, they regularly

436
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 1: put out their own estimates of youth turnout. They're very

437
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: respected in this field, and they're saying, and the headline

438
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,959
Speaker 1: mareage if that's the highest of you know, eligible voters,

439
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: youth of votent voters, and they're saying, that's the highest

440
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: that we've seen in a very long time, which is true,

441
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 1: so we should celebrate that, but it's still you know,

442
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: the difference between a lower turnout year again comparable elections,

443
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: so you know, we're talking to turms here, a lower

444
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: turn out year and a higher tram out year for

445
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 1: young people typically just a few percentage points. So we

446
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: can celebrate, and I think Democrats when they talk about

447
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: individual races, can celebrate young people right voting for them,

448
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: But at the same time, we still need to keep

449
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 1: our eye on the price here and understand that overall

450
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: youth turnout is low. It's entrenched in our electoral system

451
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: that is much lower twenty percentage points lower than older

452
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 1: age groups depending on the election, and young people need

453
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: a lot more support, and overall our election system really

454
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 1: disadvantages down people. So it's kind of like it's higher

455
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 1: in these really competitive areas because that's where the candidates

456
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: are actually reaching out to young people, fighting for their

457
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 1: vote to some degree, and young people feel like they're voted,

458
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 1: you know, salient in matters and they're kind of part

459
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 1: of that kind of whole fight for those races. But

460
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,479
Speaker 1: even then they're not really getting as much contact as

461
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: older voters and certainly the rest of the country. So

462
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: is this really a story then? This week, Mindy and

463
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to get this in because we're short

464
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: on time. Is this more about young people not being

465
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: counted in polling or did Independence who showed up break

466
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 1: enough to the Democratic side that it made a difference

467
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 1: in these numbers with you know, a similar sample of

468
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: people simply voting democratic. Yeah, let me be clear. I

469
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 1: think young people were part of the democratic win here

470
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: certainly as well as Independence period. But they would have

471
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 1: been a larger story of the election if they had

472
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 1: higher turnout and they were actually engaged by all, uh,

473
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: you know, all parties and candidates on all issues period.

474
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: Fascinating work that you do, Mindian, and I appreciate you

475
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 1: coming to see as Mindy Romero's founder and director of

476
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy, and a conversation that

477
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: we're going to turn over to the panel next because

478
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 1: there's talk of this reckoning for posters coming up here?

479
00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 1: Is it deserved? You don't answer that question without knowing

480
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: who actually showed up here. Did they undercount young people

481
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,239
Speaker 1: or did Independence simply break in a different direction than

482
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 1: they expected in some very close races. As we sit

483
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: here two days later without a real clue, at least

484
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: not technically of who's going to control either Chamber here

485
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 1: Republicans are inching closer to getting this done in the House.

486
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: The Senate up in the air with three races that

487
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: have yet to be called. Rick and Jeanie will be

488
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: back next our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics.

489
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg

490
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: you sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It

491
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: seems like the Polsters are going to get a bad

492
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: rap again. I'm just wondering if they deserve it. Hence

493
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 1: the conversation that we just had with with Mindy here

494
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 1: on sound On. I want to hear from the panel

495
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 1: on this though. We we heard predictions of a red wave.

496
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: We got what everyone's calling a red ripple or something.

497
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: But there were so many close races within the margin

498
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: that it's almost unfair. Maybe not Rick Davis and Genie

499
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: Schanzana or the experts Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, when you

500
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: look inside the polls that we were talking about, and

501
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 1: we tend to go with the averages here right last

502
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 1: many weeks, we've been hitting real clear and five thirty eight.

503
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 1: Some of them were dead on others were not, but

504
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: there were so many races within the margin. Can you

505
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 1: blame polsters? You know, I don't think you can blame

506
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: polsters in this case, and you know, and I'm gonna

507
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: a few reasons why. And I'm so glad you connected

508
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,199
Speaker 1: it to turn out. Number one, polls are really notoriously

509
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: bad about predicting future behavior, and that's what you're doing

510
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: with pre election polling. As your conversation just showed, turnout

511
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 1: is what matters. That's the only real true poll. The

512
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 1: second thing is is that, as you mentioned in tight

513
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 1: races were like almost evenly divided in this country, fifty fifty,

514
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: so you get it, You get a pole result. It

515
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: sounds very decisive, and you know, fifty two forty six percent,

516
00:26:57,880 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: the reality is going to be a plus or minus

517
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: four or five and most polls, so you're swinging from

518
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: forty to fifty or fifty five to sixty five, and

519
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: that's really where many of these races ended up. So

520
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: I think that's part of it. But I would say

521
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: Nate Cohen from the New York Times made a really

522
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: important point. Traditional polling that we are, you know, usually

523
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: familiar with those posters didn't pull as much this time around,

524
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: we had a lot of partisan polling going on, and

525
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 1: they don't adhere to industry standards, and so Republican posters

526
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 1: were leaning right, and that is what I think swayed

527
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: some of the thinking that in the last few weeks

528
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 1: in particular, Republicans may do better than expected. Rick Davis,

529
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: you have run poles, you have been at the mercy

530
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 1: of polls. I wonder when you look across the country

531
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: and what we've learned here in the last couple of days,

532
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: knowing that young people who don't have land lines, don't

533
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: always have consistent addresses, and also don't like talking to

534
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 1: polsters are difficult to measure, and and the MAGA crowd,

535
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 1: as we've heard any number of rallies take pride and

536
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,199
Speaker 1: hanging up on posters. How in the world do you

537
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: get a good sample. It's really hard to get a

538
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 1: good sample. Used to be you call one people and

539
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: you get one to do your entire thirty minute poll.

540
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: Now it's like one in a hundred uh And that

541
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 1: even you know, degrades the sample even more. That's why

542
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: you see air rates uh increasing sometimes eight percent in

543
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 1: a poll. Why take the poll if you got an

544
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: eight percent a rate. So um, I do think one

545
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: of the things though, the point you just made about

546
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 1: young voters, they're all predicated on a model, and the

547
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: models are historic. So when young people do something or

548
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: any other voter group that's different than what they've done

549
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 1: in the past, it messes everybody's pulling them. And in

550
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: this case, you know, other than two thousand eighteen, there

551
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 1: was a higher turnout for young people than ever before,

552
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: and so you know, blame it on the voter behavior.

553
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: They're always screwing up the best posters. Uh. But this

554
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: point Genie makes about politicizing polling, you know, you can't

555
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: even look at these real clear politics averages anymore because

556
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 1: half the polls in them are sponsored by parties and

557
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: you can't rely on those. So I think there's going

558
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: to be a real come up and at some point

559
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: in the industry because legitimate polsters are being overwhelmed by

560
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: you know, these sort of fake uh party polling. Wow. Well,

561
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: so then then Genie, there is a reckoning coming, whether

562
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: it's deserved or not, there is, and there should be,

563
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: and that's where people like you know, in the media

564
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: and others have to be very very careful. I too,

565
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: look at real queer politics averages, we all do, but

566
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: it's very hard when you're looking at those big averages

567
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: of pulling to tease out which we're conducted in a

568
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: way that meets industry standards for transparency and data collection,

569
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: and some of them do and some of them don't.

570
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: And the ones that don't, with close races, can really

571
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 1: sway what we're thinking. And so that coupled with the

572
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 1: fact that again a lot of are you know, tried

573
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: and true polsters have decided they're not going to engage

574
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: in public election polling because it's just not beneficial to them,

575
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: and so they have stepped back, especially in the last

576
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: few weeks, and that has made the you know, sort

577
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,959
Speaker 1: of goal of predicting really really difficult. And you know,

578
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: on this issue of youth turn out, I want to

579
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: underscore what your previous guests just said, what Mindy said

580
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: is up. But it is still less than three out

581
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: of ten eighteen to nine year olds voting, if that

582
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: is you know, we I too was cheering it today

583
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: in class. Way to go, guys, and it's still less

584
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: than than three out of ten. We should do much

585
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: much better we make voting in our country to what

586
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: is it Gin. You spend every day with a classroom

587
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: full are they is it the cliche they're just lazy?

588
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: Or they are they smoking weed and sleeping on mom's couch?

589
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: Or do they not think it matters? No, it's not.

590
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: I don't believe it's it's any of the above, you know,

591
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: not to be you know, speak for the entire group,

592
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 1: But I think just in the case of college students,

593
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: they are in school today. This is not a time

594
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: when they can get out. They are institutionalized populations. They

595
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: have to work and go to school, and so it's

596
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 1: hard on a Tuesday and voting hours, especially if you

597
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: go to school as many students do away from home.

598
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: Many of them don't have hours or transportation to get home.

599
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: So if you didn't think in my state, in my

600
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: state of New York, if you didn't think to get

601
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: an early ballot before October, I think it was fourteenth,

602
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: you are out of luck. And when you're nineteen twenty,

603
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 1: sometimes you're not thinking a month or two in advance

604
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 1: to get a ballot. So we can make it much

605
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: easier for the entire population to get out and vote. Well,

606
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: you do wonder what the heck is gonna happen. Rick,

607
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 1: with two potentially two men over eighty running for the

608
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 1: White House at the top of the ticket in two years.

609
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: That going to bring young people out, that'll drive them away.

610
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a reason why only three and ten

611
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: vote because it's so detached from anything in their lives,

612
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: and and it should be a little bit detached. I mean,

613
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's it's once you know, people start

614
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,959
Speaker 1: paying taxes and get in the workforce and that's becoming

615
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 1: part of the system, they get more politically excited. So

616
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: good night, you talking about firedness. Yeah, yeah, that's right. Genie.

617
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 1: Keep inspiring. As as we spend time with Rick and Genie,

618
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 1: who inspire us every day, I have to ask you

619
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,959
Speaker 1: about this new assault on the and or president. Apparently

620
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: the conservative news media has decided to turn the guns

621
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 1: at Donald Trump. Listen to the lieutenant governor of Virginia.

622
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've heard this today. You start

623
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: looking around for examples here. You know, It's one thing

624
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: for the former president to be uh framed as Humpty

625
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: Dumpy on the cover of the New York Post, but

626
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: in this case, on Fox News Business Today, the lieutenant

627
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: governor of Virginia, who was the National chair of Black

628
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: Americans to reelect the president in winsome sears. You know,

629
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: the voters have spoken, and they have said that they

630
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: want a different leader, and a true leader understands when

631
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: they have become a liability. A true leader understands that

632
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 1: it's time to step off the stage. And the voters

633
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: have given us that very clear message. On this same day,

634
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: a Wall Street Journal editorial dubbs Trump the Republican Party's

635
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: biggest loser, which must be driving him wild at Mara

636
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: a Lago. He's one of his favorite insults, of course,

637
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: And then again that New York Post cover Don who

638
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: couldn't build a wall had a great fall. Rick, is

639
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: this advantage, Rhonda Santis, Well, my favorite new nickname is

640
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: Trumpty dumpty um. That's pretty funny cover. Yeah, it's pretty funny,

641
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 1: all of Uh yeah, I mean, look, I mean this

642
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: is the reaction, right, I mean, like there are people

643
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: now looking to scramble. I think this is the most

644
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: vulnerable Donald Trump's been since January sixth. Uh yeah. The

645
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 1: reality is that he does not have the kind of

646
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: grip on the party today that that he had going

647
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 1: into this election. And and for good reason, right. I mean,

648
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: he's sitting on a hundred million dollars that didn't spend

649
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: on people he was endorsing. Uh. He gave the party

650
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: people that couldn't win in a general through his endorsement. Uh.

651
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 1: And and and he's basically threatened the entire party that

652
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: if you don't become an election denier, you're not a Republican.

653
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: So he's creating all these false uh expectations that can't

654
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: be delivered on and then complains when it's not delivered.

655
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 1: So I think there is a reckoning happening and and

656
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: and and maybe he is able to pull it back

657
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,240
Speaker 1: like he did before. But right now there's a scramble

658
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: for leadership. And and you know, you don't have to

659
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: look very far to find a lot of people. Governor Young,

660
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 1: can you know, Governor DeSantis, you know Governor Abbott. All

661
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: these guys had great nights and they're all looking for

662
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: a national role. Boy, this is uh, this is interesting something.

663
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: He's typically empowered by this type of thing. But to

664
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 1: see the entire uh Murdoch News empire, media empire turn

665
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 1: on Donald Trump, you wonder if this is an indicator

666
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 1: Gene either talking about or at least he's alluding to

667
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 1: jumping into the race for president next week, and some

668
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 1: are suggesting in the Republican Party that he take advantage.

669
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: I don't mean to use this that term the wrong way,

670
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: but use the storm, used the hurricane as an excuse

671
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 1: to not do it next week. What do you think happens.

672
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 1: I don't know what everybody's talking about. Sure, de Santist

673
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 1: won Florida, but Trump got more votes than to santis Right,

674
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 1: that's yeah, that's what he was saying. I don't know

675
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: what everybody's talking about. My favorite New York post, by

676
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 1: the way, was the Future as opposed to santis Um.

677
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 1: And you know John pud Hoards saying he's like a

678
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 1: can of raid, the most profound voter repellent in American history.

679
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: So he's getting hit very hard. Everybody is suggesting, subtly

680
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 1: or not so subtly, that he doesn't announce before December

681
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: six if he's going to and use, as you said,

682
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 1: the hurricane is an excuse. But it's Donald Trump, and

683
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: what hit would it be to his ego? He didn't

684
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 1: just subtly say he might consider doing this. On Tuesday,

685
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: he said he was going to do it, and now

686
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: he would have to not do it. So you can

687
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: imagine that it's going to be a great beginning of

688
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: the week. The tweet the truth I guess called this

689
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: is Donald Trump. Now that the election in Florida is

690
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 1: over and everything went quite well, shouldn't it be said

691
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: that in twenty I got one million more votes in

692
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: Florida than Ronde got this year, asking Rick Davis, grievance, grievance, grievance,

693
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 1: I mean, please, is he reading the writing on the

694
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: wall though, I mean he knows that this is for real?

695
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 1: Should he postpone that announcement? Rick? Uh, look, I don't

696
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 1: think he should ever make that announcement. Forget to postpone it. Please,

697
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,959
Speaker 1: Just that there's a tee time waiting for you, Donald Trump.

698
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: If you were looking out for Donald Trump, though, is

699
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:22,919
Speaker 1: that the right call for him? If I were looking

700
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: out for Donald Trump, I would cancel the meeting or

701
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 1: have some reason to postpone it. But my guess is

702
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 1: he feels vulnerable, and that's usually when he does the

703
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: craziest things right, and the horses out of the barn,

704
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: that's the fifteenth. We'll deal with that when the time

705
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: comes Jennie. Thank you, Rick Davis. Of course our signature panel.

706
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Is this week over yet?

707
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: We'll meet you tomorrow. This is Bloomberg