Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best idea on a FED day, I think
Speaker 2: more than any other FED day that we've done. In
Speaker 2: the morning. We had less conversation on the FED. It's
Speaker 2: just the confusion that's out there. And this keyword uncertainty.
Speaker 2: We covered it yesterday. I will be honest, I can't
Speaker 2: remember the guest, but we had a brilliant discussion of
Speaker 2: Nightian uncertainty. Nightian k and Ight Nightian Uncertainty is Frank Knight,
Speaker 2: nineteen twenty one. It was his thesis I believe at
Speaker 2: Chicago a million years ago, and it's a rite of passage.
Speaker 2: You have to read the thing. It's my recollection. It's
Speaker 2: forty fifty sixty pages, but you have to read his
Speaker 2: thesis on Nightian uncertainty, which is sort of a reachable,
Speaker 2: touchable uncertainty even though you can't see or touch the
Speaker 2: uncertainty is a simple way to put it. That's where
Speaker 2: we are right now, particularly given the trade war. A
Speaker 2: lot of good conversations today. We started strong, huge response,
Speaker 2: Thank you so much out on YouTube to Mike Green,
Speaker 2: five Star, Morning Star, High Yield Fun Mike Green with
Speaker 2: a lot of really good discussions about active versus passive.
Speaker 2: Here's Mike Green on your retirement choice.
Speaker 3: The quick answer is there is no right percentage, right,
Speaker 3: It's going to depend on everyone's individual component. The key
Speaker 3: thing that I would highlight is that when you think
Speaker 3: about investing for retirement, when you think about those, focus
Speaker 3: on what you need, not what your neighbor wants. Right,
Speaker 3: And this is a really key component. We tend to
Speaker 3: get ourselves caught up in the fomo type framework. We're
Speaker 3: in an environment in which you can if you're worried
Speaker 3: about inflation, you can buy real yielding tips with a
Speaker 3: positive yield for the first time in over a decade. Right.
Speaker 3: That is something that I would argue people are ignoring.
Speaker 3: I would broadly suggest that income in a lot of
Speaker 3: ways because it has what I refer to as indogenous liquidity,
Speaker 3: significant coupon payments and an ultimate payment of at maturity.
Speaker 3: Has very different characteristics than the Ponzi like characteristics associated
Speaker 3: with equities, where you are always getting your value from
Speaker 3: what somebody else pays, and so those are ways that
Speaker 3: you can separate yourselves. They're not immune, I have to
Speaker 3: be clear, this is a systemic issue, but they are
Speaker 3: a better way to think about the opportunity.
Speaker 2: The forever debate about the certain cash flows of fixed
Speaker 2: income versus a less certain equity world. Mike Green. There
Speaker 2: Francis Donald is with RBC Capital Markets. She gave us
Speaker 2: a traditional FED coverage is best she could. Here's Francis
Speaker 2: Donald of RBC on our labor economy.
Speaker 1: The nature of this job market is changing. We have
Speaker 1: the most amount of those over the age of sixty
Speaker 1: five the US has ever seen. Over one in five
Speaker 1: Americans is over the age of sixty five, most amount
Speaker 1: of retirees ever and so economists are scratching their head.
Speaker 1: Why are higher rates down but also fire rates down
Speaker 1: and quick rates down. This is a job market that
Speaker 1: is acclimating to a demographic bus that's occurring in real time.
Speaker 1: Demographics are traditionally something that you look at when you're
Speaker 1: five or ten year forecast when you're forced to do
Speaker 1: something that difficult. They're not something we take to hear now.
Speaker 1: And this is why when I talk about uncertainty, a
Speaker 1: lot of folks are saying we're going to get more
Speaker 1: certainty on trade in the coming week. But a lot
Speaker 1: of the customers, a lot of the folks that we
Speaker 1: talk to in the United States are also paying very
Speaker 1: close attention to immigration policies that come through and how
Speaker 1: this government is going to support or not support what
Speaker 1: is a very shifting labor dynamic. Now Federal Reserve is
Speaker 1: going to have to talk about this at some point,
Speaker 1: probably not today, when they're looking at something like a
Speaker 1: high fours unemployment rate and that's going to be enough
Speaker 1: for them to start cutting.
Speaker 2: Just brilliant Francis Donald there on what the media doesn't
Speaker 2: talk about enough, which is demographic economics. Angus Madison owned
Speaker 2: the high ground one this I really can't and Robert Fogel,
Speaker 2: I believe it. Penn at University of Pennsylvania, the laureate.
Speaker 2: I really can't say enough how we ignored our peril
Speaker 2: the demographics the makeup of any society, whether it's China
Speaker 2: or the US, whatever. But that was just brilliant. Francis
Speaker 2: Donald there on an Aging America. We're on YouTube, some
Speaker 2: real benchmarks today for us. Thank you so much for
Speaker 2: subscribing to Bloomberg podcasts out on YouTube. It is the
Speaker 2: foundation of our future. Really appreciate that. And out on
Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea