1
00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,399
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast podcast.

2
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

3
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,200
Speaker 2: people over for a second.

4
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 1: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

5
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,320
Speaker 1: I'm your host Sean Zarilla, joined today by Billy Worred

6
00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,680
Speaker 1: to help break down this weekend's UFC three seventeen cards.

7
00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,960
Speaker 1: Apologies all lost power this week. We are doing this

8
00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,479
Speaker 1: over the phone, so we'll make sure to do our

9
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,519
Speaker 1: best to place this in and make everything seamless for

10
00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:47,880
Speaker 1: this episode, but do apologize for the technical They'll forgive

11
00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:49,640
Speaker 1: the and if you'd like to tell some of the

12
00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: best that we discuss on today's show, make sure to

13
00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 1: find the clipslip climbs both in the podcast and a

14
00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,440
Speaker 1: video description, or go to Action network dot com slash

15
00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,880
Speaker 1: bet Now. The main event a featherweight title bout between Ilia.

16
00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,160
Speaker 1: A main event lightweight title bout between former featherweight champion

17
00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,959
Speaker 1: Eliot's Oria coming in at minus four twenty favorite against

18
00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,399
Speaker 1: Charles dobrons Old there at plus three thirty Dough Bronx,

19
00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,840
Speaker 1: former lightweight champion. This belt vacated by islam m Kashev,

20
00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,960
Speaker 1: who's going to go up to one hundred and seventy

21
00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:23,120
Speaker 1: pounds and Jack Della Mattlanta fight heavily juice to end

22
00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,840
Speaker 1: inside the distance at minus six seventy's five twenty to

23
00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,080
Speaker 1: go to a decision, I like to pour you iterations

24
00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,520
Speaker 1: to win inside the distance earlier in the fight. Really

25
00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,320
Speaker 1: funny tweet I saw from MMA Senthel last night. Probably

26
00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,600
Speaker 1: don't love the centile accounts I kind of have most

27
00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,600
Speaker 1: commuted across all sports, but report Charles Olivera reveals he

28
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,080
Speaker 1: plans to absorb a clean right hand early on to

29
00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 1: get a read on iliat Torio's power. It's funny because

30
00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,520
Speaker 1: that's just what Charles looks like in every single one

31
00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,880
Speaker 1: of his recent fights, the Dustin Toye fight, the Justin

32
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,360
Speaker 1: Gaetchee fight, the first Michael Chandler fight, just getting knocked

33
00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:02,040
Speaker 1: down clean and hard early before eventually rallying back. But

34
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,840
Speaker 1: I do think Charles' durability is going to be in

35
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 1: serious peril this weekend against Tapouria, who we've already seen

36
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,239
Speaker 1: come up two hundred and fifty five pounds and carry

37
00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,119
Speaker 1: that power. Now that he's making a full time division

38
00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 1: move and going up and wait, I think the added

39
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,800
Speaker 1: muscle is going to really help with Taporia, not to

40
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:24,240
Speaker 1: mention the speed and durability advantages he has as well. Now,

41
00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,640
Speaker 1: Oliver at a huge number, the most prolific finisher in

42
00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:32,320
Speaker 1: promotional history record twenty finishes sixteen by submissions, but he

43
00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,399
Speaker 1: is a glass canon defending strike at just forty nine

44
00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,320
Speaker 1: percent compared to sixty four percent for Taporia. NFTs two

45
00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,200
Speaker 1: are going to brawl it out quickly and fast. I

46
00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:45,200
Speaker 1: think Taporia is much more likely to be standing at

47
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,239
Speaker 1: the end of it. Last point I want to mention

48
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,559
Speaker 1: before tossing it over to Billy. I do think Toporia's

49
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 1: defensive grappling is probably his grappling game in general, probably

50
00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,200
Speaker 1: the most underrated part of his skill set. This is

51
00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,120
Speaker 1: a guy who came from a Brazilian jiu jitsu base.

52
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,359
Speaker 1: It was the first thing he trained. Has the level

53
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:06,200
Speaker 1: about his boxing to an unbelievable level throughout his MMA career.

54
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,520
Speaker 1: But I do think olivera unlikely to be able to

55
00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,800
Speaker 1: take him down. The size advantage is worth noting Olver

56
00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,320
Speaker 1: three inches taller five entre each advantage, so he is

57
00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,359
Speaker 1: the bigger man. But I do think to Poria has

58
00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,400
Speaker 1: the big power advantage, the big durability advantage, and frankly,

59
00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,640
Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if this fight ends on

60
00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,880
Speaker 1: the first exchange, similar the Pois knockdown, similar to the

61
00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:31,280
Speaker 1: Gaechee and Chandler knockdown, is just without Charles getting up

62
00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 1: and recovering from said knockdown. To Billy, I know you

63
00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 1: like the underdog.

64
00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:35,960
Speaker 3: Side of this fight.

65
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,200
Speaker 1: Where would you bet Oliver a down to you? Why

66
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,680
Speaker 1: would you bet his money line as opposed to taking

67
00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:41,680
Speaker 1: me inside the distance?

68
00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:41,880
Speaker 3: Prop?

69
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,840
Speaker 1: Do you think he has a chance to win by

70
00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,840
Speaker 1: decision if this fight extends, because I do think the

71
00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 1: minute winning could ultimately be competitive. To Porty never generally

72
00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 1: pulls away on minutes. He's usually in competitive fights and

73
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,480
Speaker 1: the power ends up proving the difference. So where's your

74
00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:57,760
Speaker 1: price target on Charles and what's your read on this fight?

75
00:03:58,680 --> 00:03:58,920
Speaker 3: Yeah?

76
00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,080
Speaker 4: I got the undergo Charles olivera chucky olives at plus

77
00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,200
Speaker 4: three fifty. I think kind of anything north of plus

78
00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,680
Speaker 4: three hundred, I'm interested. You pretty much answered the decision

79
00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 4: question for me. Oliver is a little bit more active.

80
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,200
Speaker 4: I think he just does more things where topuria big

81
00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:17,120
Speaker 4: knockout power. Haven't really seen him in too many long fights.

82
00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:20,159
Speaker 4: He went five rounds with Josh Emmett. Outside of that,

83
00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,960
Speaker 4: not as much experience winning minutes down the stretches Olivera.

84
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,840
Speaker 4: The only thing I really disagree with your read on

85
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 4: because if I was betting Elia, the unders make a

86
00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,000
Speaker 4: ton of sense. My only pushback is I don't know

87
00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,880
Speaker 4: that Charles oliver was actually hurt in too many or

88
00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,719
Speaker 4: any of those exchanges, because he likes to play possum.

89
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:40,680
Speaker 4: The first time you clip him, he falls down because

90
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,920
Speaker 4: he wants you into his guard. He has I think

91
00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,240
Speaker 4: it's pretty safe to say the best guard ever for

92
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,880
Speaker 4: MMA in UFC history, if not all of MMA, extremely

93
00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 4: dangerous off his back, and he wants you to follow

94
00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,200
Speaker 4: him down. If you don't and you do hurt him,

95
00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,040
Speaker 4: he effectively gets a ten count in MMA boxing style,

96
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,599
Speaker 4: which gives him a chance to recover. And if you

97
00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,599
Speaker 4: do follow him down, you're putting yourself into trouble. I'm

98
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,640
Speaker 4: not sure that Taperia will have the restraint to solve

99
00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,040
Speaker 4: that puzzle correctly. I mean, he's shown us that he's

100
00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,240
Speaker 4: very very good so far, but that is a tricky

101
00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 4: situation to deal with, and the only people who have

102
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,479
Speaker 4: really beat Charles Olivera in the last decade or so

103
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,800
Speaker 4: our elite level wrestlers, not just grapplers. But he's lost

104
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,520
Speaker 4: to Arman saraki in in a fight that could have

105
00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:26,560
Speaker 4: gone either way. In Islam, Makachev Toperia can grapple, and

106
00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,279
Speaker 4: I don't think Olivera totally wipes him on the ground,

107
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,320
Speaker 4: But is he going to push that kind of wrestling

108
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,880
Speaker 4: pace that those guys did against Charles Olivera. I'm not sure.

109
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 4: A striking fight against a bigger, taller guy is a

110
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,839
Speaker 4: little bit tricky. Toperia posted a picture with Kai Kara

111
00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,839
Speaker 4: France where they look like they're the same weight class,

112
00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,039
Speaker 4: and Kara France is fighting it ly weight, so that

113
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:50,040
Speaker 4: was an interesting thought. I'm not, you know, supremely confident him.

114
00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,239
Speaker 4: Eliot Tuperia is a more than rightful favorite, but plus

115
00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,000
Speaker 4: three and a half to one against one of the greatest,

116
00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,040
Speaker 4: or three and a half to one for one of

117
00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,400
Speaker 4: the greatest lightweights of all time just a little bit

118
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,159
Speaker 4: disrespectful and frankly, I want to be rooting for Charles

119
00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,880
Speaker 4: OLIVERI here, so you know, quarter unit sprinkle on plus

120
00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 4: three fifty would take it down to plus three hundred.

121
00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,520
Speaker 1: The way I'm specifically betting this fight, I like to

122
00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,840
Speaker 1: pouriat same game PARLAYD with the unders under half a

123
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,440
Speaker 1: route is plus four seventy five under one and a

124
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 1: half plus one thirty under two and a half minus

125
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,479
Speaker 1: one thirty. The under three and a half I saw

126
00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,280
Speaker 1: today north of minus two hundred. It was minus one

127
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,160
Speaker 1: ninety last night. It was closer to minus two twenty today,

128
00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,160
Speaker 1: So I just stick with the under half. Around one

129
00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,160
Speaker 1: and a half rounds and two and a half rounds

130
00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 1: two and a half, you can get as low as

131
00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,719
Speaker 1: minus one twenty eight. That seems like a pretty good

132
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:37,600
Speaker 1: number to me. It's probably the one I'll bet the

133
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,719
Speaker 1: biggest of the three. The reason why I'm not betting

134
00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,920
Speaker 1: to pour round one ko or a round two KO,

135
00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 1: which are plus three hundred and plus four ninety, respectively.

136
00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,680
Speaker 1: I think he's got enough of an ego where he

137
00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:51,800
Speaker 1: might try to hunt a club and sub against the

138
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,520
Speaker 1: ol EA. It just something strikes me about this guy,

139
00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,560
Speaker 1: you know, the the aura, but also the ego where

140
00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,680
Speaker 1: it just feels like he would want to prove a

141
00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 1: point by trying to outgrapple a guy who's a world

142
00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,119
Speaker 1: class grappler. Do you get any of what I'm saying

143
00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,960
Speaker 1: with regard to the ego and to for him maybe

144
00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:09,760
Speaker 1: trying to prove a point.

145
00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,040
Speaker 3: Billy, Yeah, that is a tremendous point.

146
00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 4: I mean he changed his name if you ask him

147
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,760
Speaker 4: from El Matador to the Spanish translation of the Legend.

148
00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,200
Speaker 4: You know, declared himself a legend with two title wins.

149
00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 4: That is actually really sharp. I love that angle. I

150
00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:25,880
Speaker 4: don't know that it'll work, And honestly, you saying that

151
00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,840
Speaker 4: makes me feel better about Mahal of Arabat. But from

152
00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:30,840
Speaker 4: your standpoint that one hundred percent agree.

153
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I have a feeling he's going to try,

154
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:36,520
Speaker 1: especially if he gets a knockdout, that he's going to

155
00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,080
Speaker 1: try to go for a club and sub rather than

156
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,280
Speaker 1: actually finishing the fight with strikes. I mean, who knows

157
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,840
Speaker 1: in the moment like that that maybe his playing going

158
00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,800
Speaker 1: in then you see red when he knocked the guy down,

159
00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 1: or just try to finish the fight. But just thinking back,

160
00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,840
Speaker 1: like like you said, Charles playing possum. His his like

161
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 1: head movement on the ground against Chandler was like super awkward.

162
00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:58,720
Speaker 1: There's some reps you would have stopped that fight because

163
00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,040
Speaker 1: he kind of went face down. So yeah, should be

164
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,960
Speaker 1: a fun fight. I do think though, I actually think

165
00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,680
Speaker 1: there's a distinct possibility that this one could end on

166
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 1: the first exchange. If it doesn't, I do think it'll

167
00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,600
Speaker 1: be competitive. Like you said, you know the strike differential

168
00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,200
Speaker 1: for Pouri of the patient, the power does give him

169
00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,960
Speaker 1: the advantage, but I think on volume it'll be competitive.

170
00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,720
Speaker 1: But if he does end this fight on the first exchange,

171
00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,280
Speaker 1: I would not be shocked. It would be a very

172
00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:26,080
Speaker 1: anticomactic end the International fight week. But hopefully before that,

173
00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,560
Speaker 1: the Flyway title out between Alexander Brantosia and Kaikar France

174
00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,600
Speaker 1: provides a little bit more entertainment. Pantosia coming in here

175
00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,480
Speaker 1: as a minus two thirty five favorite, kai Car of

176
00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,600
Speaker 1: France at plus two fifteen, this fight is flight plus

177
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,160
Speaker 1: money to go to a decision of plus one oh five.

178
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 1: It is minus one thirty to end inside the distance. Billy,

179
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,760
Speaker 1: you'll have the breakdown up for this fight up on

180
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,360
Speaker 1: Action network dot Com. You like the favorite Pantosia, but

181
00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,640
Speaker 1: you like him in the same game parlay with the

182
00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,240
Speaker 1: over one and a half rounds. I'll give you underdog.

183
00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,720
Speaker 1: I'll give the argument for the underdog in a moment,

184
00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:01,760
Speaker 1: But go and tell me why you landed on Pantosa

185
00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:02,240
Speaker 1: this weekend.

186
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would actually have no problem structuring it similarly

187
00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,360
Speaker 4: to how you're doing Taperia, where we progressively add you know,

188
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,319
Speaker 4: later rounds if you want to do stuff like that.

189
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:14,679
Speaker 4: There's just something that really stood out for me stylistically

190
00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,920
Speaker 4: for Pantoja, and that is Kaikara France, almost exclusively when

191
00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,440
Speaker 4: he's getting back to his feet or defensive wrestling, he

192
00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,560
Speaker 4: looks to hit switches and for those that don't know,

193
00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,760
Speaker 4: I'm going to poorly mime it, but you reach behind

194
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,400
Speaker 4: yourself and grab the inside of the leg of the

195
00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,480
Speaker 4: person who's taking you down. It works really well most

196
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,520
Speaker 4: of the time. But Pantoja is probably the best backtaker

197
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:36,040
Speaker 4: in the lighter weight classes.

198
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 3: Right now.

199
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:38,959
Speaker 4: We saw kai Kara France get a mire al Bosi

200
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,720
Speaker 4: stuck on his back because Albozi adapted to that game

201
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,040
Speaker 4: plan and stuffed at the second time that he tried

202
00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:48,520
Speaker 4: it. It worked once. Pantoja, super sharp, you know, well studied,

203
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,040
Speaker 4: is going to come in with a game plan. He

204
00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:51,960
Speaker 4: is going to be hip to that being the main

205
00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,440
Speaker 4: escape that kai Kara France goes to. And if you

206
00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,360
Speaker 4: know someone's going to do it, it's fairly easy to

207
00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 4: shut down. I think Pantoja can do that. In the

208
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,280
Speaker 4: wrestling pressure will just be too much. And also this

209
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,720
Speaker 4: is a rematch, so Pantoja has got this feel before

210
00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,920
Speaker 4: he's felt Caara France's power. Pantosa won the second round

211
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,160
Speaker 4: on The Ultimate Fighter against Cara France without really landing

212
00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,000
Speaker 4: a takedown or much ground control time, so I think

213
00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 4: the striking will be mostly competitive. Carra France has a

214
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,280
Speaker 4: huge power edge, but we've never really seen Pantoja drop

215
00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,920
Speaker 4: or hurt. Carra France also a little bit concerns with

216
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,960
Speaker 4: his durability. He's been knocked out a couple times. And

217
00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,439
Speaker 4: given the nature of the rematch that Pantoja has hip

218
00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 4: to the stylistic moves that Kara France is going to use,

219
00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,480
Speaker 4: I think it should be a pretty easy, control based

220
00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,679
Speaker 4: win for Pantoja. So if you don't want to be

221
00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:40,880
Speaker 4: over one and a half in the SGP, I like

222
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:42,840
Speaker 4: his point spread. The minus five and a half is

223
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,640
Speaker 4: around the same odds anything like that with Pantoja, I

224
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,400
Speaker 4: don't think he's going to dominate Cara France. I'm very

225
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,520
Speaker 4: impressed with how Carra France has improved his grappling defense generally,

226
00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 4: but the way he goes about it is just a

227
00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,040
Speaker 4: bad matchup against Pantoja of all people.

228
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, all fair points, and I think you know, your

229
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 1: analysis regard to the regarding the switch on the get

230
00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:08,559
Speaker 1: ups and his likelihood of just being matt returned from

231
00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,760
Speaker 1: there or Pantosia being able to get back and control

232
00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,640
Speaker 1: the position in the scrambles, I think is probably super key.

233
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,920
Speaker 1: You know, just from my perspective, the market perspective, Pantoja

234
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:21,120
Speaker 1: is very popular this week, He's continued to gain popularity

235
00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,280
Speaker 1: as a champion. May move up ultimately to one thirty five,

236
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 1: you know, if with another title fight win here, he's

237
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,360
Speaker 1: been encouraged to try to pursue a second belt if

238
00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,440
Speaker 1: he's able to successfully defend the Flyway belt once again.

239
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,240
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if he's big enough to move up

240
00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,320
Speaker 1: to one thirty five. It is something you have suggested

241
00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,880
Speaker 1: in the past though potentially going up to fight morale.

242
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,880
Speaker 1: But you know, just in terms of the pure stylistic matchup,

243
00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,560
Speaker 1: Kai's first layer takedown defense has defended eighty eight percent

244
00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,280
Speaker 1: of takedowns in the USC forty four to fifty I

245
00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,520
Speaker 1: do think once he gets taken down, that is where

246
00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:53,720
Speaker 1: he's going to run into trouble if he's able to

247
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,720
Speaker 1: keep the fight standing. Because he's able to deny those takedowns,

248
00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:00,280
Speaker 1: particularly early, he should have the striking advantage, out striking

249
00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,200
Speaker 1: his opponent by about one point two strikes per minute

250
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,360
Speaker 1: compared too point three for Pantoso. So Pentoes is a fision,

251
00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:08,840
Speaker 1: but he does eat a lot of clean head strikes.

252
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,920
Speaker 1: He likes the brawl. Offensive striking is not great. As

253
00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,520
Speaker 1: a result, I don't think the optics are the best

254
00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,720
Speaker 1: in his striking exchanges for the judges that he's able

255
00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,760
Speaker 1: to overcome that with superior grappling. He's spent sixty one

256
00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:24,040
Speaker 1: percent of his UFC fight time grappling compared to about

257
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,680
Speaker 1: twenty five percent for Kai car France. So if this

258
00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,680
Speaker 1: is able to be spent more in the grappling realm,

259
00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,760
Speaker 1: obviously Pantosio should have the advantage. The more that Kay

260
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,080
Speaker 1: car France is able to deny the takedowns, the more

261
00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:39,160
Speaker 1: it helps him. Relatively binary striker versus grappler fight. That said,

262
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,720
Speaker 1: I don't think either one is a particularly big finishing

263
00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,720
Speaker 1: threat against the other. I do think car France has

264
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,600
Speaker 1: shown pretty good rear naked choke submission defense, and Pantosia

265
00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:53,559
Speaker 1: is just historically durable relative for the division. That said,

266
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,360
Speaker 1: if you kept giving me five to one fifty one

267
00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:02,040
Speaker 1: on Pantosia's opponent, then knock him out going forward at flyweight,

268
00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,880
Speaker 1: I feel like it's gonna happen. Matual thirty five years old.

269
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:09,680
Speaker 1: Now he has taken it down damage obviously shown unbelievable durability.

270
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,120
Speaker 1: But Carl France is really good hand speed. It's not

271
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:16,160
Speaker 1: even the power so much as the precision and the

272
00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,720
Speaker 1: speed of his strikes and his combinations that tends to

273
00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,559
Speaker 1: put people down. I think he sprizes people with the

274
00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,760
Speaker 1: quickness of his hands sometimes. I made his koprop about

275
00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,120
Speaker 1: plus five hundred. You can bet that down to about

276
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:29,480
Speaker 1: plus five to fifty. I would poke it. I made

277
00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,080
Speaker 1: his money line about plus one seventy, would play that

278
00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:34,680
Speaker 1: small to plus one to eighty five. Just the very

279
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,920
Speaker 1: binary fight. And I do think he has the potential

280
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,240
Speaker 1: to improve off of their first fight. But as Billy said,

281
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 1: the switches the get ups for Carl France if he

282
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,720
Speaker 1: does get taken down, I think that could ultimately be

283
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 1: where the fight probably swings for Pantosia. Should be a

284
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,400
Speaker 1: fun fight, though, and I think we'll get pretty good

285
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,400
Speaker 1: betting action on both sides of this one, given Pantosia's

286
00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,200
Speaker 1: increased popularity, but also the fact that Flywhite fight they're

287
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,240
Speaker 1: usually pretty close. This fight is a round to pick

288
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,640
Speaker 1: them to go to a decision, and car Front has

289
00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,200
Speaker 1: been competitive with him in the past. Let's turn to

290
00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 1: our favorite underdogs for this weekend's card. We have a

291
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,840
Speaker 1: bunch of props and underdog kind of crossover here, so

292
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 1: we'll sort of combine the favorite underdog section and the

293
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,200
Speaker 1: favorite Prop section. We'll throw a little ad rate in

294
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,120
Speaker 1: the middle, but we're going to talk about these fights

295
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 1: individually in order to keep it very clear. Let's start

296
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,160
Speaker 1: with my favorite underdog this weekend, and that is Viviani

297
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:32,400
Speaker 1: our Ujo at plus two ten against Tracy Cortez coming

298
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,480
Speaker 1: in at minus two sixty, taking the underdog in a

299
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 1: fight that is heavily juiced to go to a decision

300
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,040
Speaker 1: plus six or minus six hundred to go to a decision.

301
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,480
Speaker 1: Vivi is seven years older and she does typically struggle

302
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,160
Speaker 1: with Cardio after round one, but Cortez doesn't really push

303
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,560
Speaker 1: a pace whatsoever. Vivi's the bigger fighter, She's a three

304
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 1: entre each advantage. I think she pushes a higher output

305
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,560
Speaker 1: on the feet, lands five point six strikes per minute

306
00:14:56,760 --> 00:15:00,200
Speaker 1: compared to five for Cortes. At distance, Cortez is be

307
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,200
Speaker 1: more efficient striker, outlining her opponents by more than half

308
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,920
Speaker 1: a strike per minute compared to our Ujo. But I

309
00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,800
Speaker 1: do think this should be close and competitive, particularly for

310
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: the first ten minutes, and these two shoot a similar

311
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:15,600
Speaker 1: number of takedowns. They grapple relatively similarly in terms of

312
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 1: rate stats. Our Uzo, though, has the better takedown defense

313
00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,880
Speaker 1: of the pair, and I think they're equally likely to

314
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 1: get on top of one another and generate some control time.

315
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 1: So give me our Ujo plus two ten. I think

316
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,240
Speaker 1: she'll be the better fighter for the first ten minutes.

317
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,960
Speaker 1: Cortes should be the better fighter for the final five.

318
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,840
Speaker 1: Hopefully the judges give some weight to the work that

319
00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 1: our Ujo does over the first half of the fight. Billy,

320
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,160
Speaker 1: any thoughts on Vivi against Tracy Cortez for this weekend?

321
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I didn't get to it, but just the classic

322
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 4: system play. I mean, you and I have given out

323
00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:48,720
Speaker 4: so many versions of lighter weight class or women's fights

324
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 4: underdogs that by and large have worked out for us,

325
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 4: So I'm one hundred percent with you on that.

326
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:55,720
Speaker 3: Not one. I just have so many bets on this one.

327
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 3: I didn't quite get there myself, but makes total sense.

328
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,960
Speaker 1: Another dog played Shanata Denise against Alvin Hine Kids, making

329
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 1: his UFCA debut in the heavyweight division. He had a

330
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 1: couple of amateur fights in twenty eleven and twenty twelve,

331
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 1: then he came back to the sport in twenty twenty two,

332
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 1: so he hasn't really been fighting that long. Undefeated in

333
00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 1: his MMA career brought a bunch of times in LFA.

334
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 1: He is the smaller man two inches shorter, five inch

335
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 1: reach discrepancy compared to Denise. He's the better kickboxer, but

336
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,600
Speaker 1: I would imagine you think that Heines can wrestle him. Here.

337
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 1: Denise was controlled for seven minutes and fourteen seconds of

338
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 1: a ten minute fight against Mercy Taibura. Austin Lane controlled

339
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,520
Speaker 1: him for nearly an entire round four and a half minutes,

340
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 1: and Carl Williams never really tried to grapple him when

341
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 1: they fought in the Apex. As I said, Denise the

342
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: more dators kickboxer, but Heines coming in as a big underdog.

343
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 1: Our producer Matt thought he looked kind of like Will Sasso.

344
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 1: I thought he looked like Wil Sasso playing brock Lesner

345
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 1: in a bio pick. Just a big boulder of a man.

346
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 1: You think he's able to grapple Denise and get him down.

347
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 4: I don't know if that thinks the right word. It

348
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,320
Speaker 4: might be more of a hope. At this point plus

349
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 4: two seventy, I'm willing to hope. You know, we're getting

350
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,439
Speaker 4: almost three to one odds here. So as best I

351
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 4: can tell, he was a high school wrestler. I've really

352
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,199
Speaker 4: struggled to find, you know, a picture of him in

353
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 4: a singlet where he went to college, anything like that.

354
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,639
Speaker 1: I don't know that the man has a boulder, per

355
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 1: a chest. I don't think it was a fit around him.

356
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, probably not, Probably not these days, but you know,

357
00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 4: fifteen years ago or whatever. Just kind of a big,

358
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 4: strong Midwestern dad who seems to be fighting on the

359
00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 4: weekends for fun while working his job as a union

360
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,560
Speaker 4: structural engineer with his union crest tattooed on him. Just

361
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,480
Speaker 4: seems like a great story, fun guy, and if you're

362
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,600
Speaker 4: gonna give him a matchup to make his UFC debut

363
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,920
Speaker 4: against an extremely one dimensional kickboxer is probably the best one,

364
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:44,920
Speaker 4: because if Goozie can land a take down and lay

365
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:45,440
Speaker 4: on top of his.

366
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,159
Speaker 3: Knees, he should coast to a victory.

367
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 4: Here, he's probably gonna get knocked out by the much

368
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 4: superior and more dedicated overall athlete, but again it's plus

369
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 4: three to one. His nickname's Guzie. Seems like a lot

370
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,880
Speaker 4: of fun. This is not, you know, my most confident

371
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 4: or not a huge bet for me, but I slightly

372
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,879
Speaker 4: love rooting Forguzi on the early prelimbs, and I genuinely

373
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,440
Speaker 4: wouldn't be shocked if he has just enough wrestling to

374
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 4: coast to a somewhat boring but emotionally fun victory against

375
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:11,959
Speaker 4: Shanada Denise.

376
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,200
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of sloppy heavyweight decisions in recent years.

377
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 1: Heavyweight fights have gone to a decision north of fifty

378
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 1: percent over the past three years.

379
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:21,880
Speaker 3: This fight is.

380
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 1: Plus two to eighty to go to a decision. I've

381
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 1: projected a closer to plus two five around thirty three percent.

382
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,440
Speaker 1: You could alternatively bet the Neeeds by decision of plus

383
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 1: four to thirty compared to a projected line of plus

384
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 1: two eighty. Those are the two value bets on that fight.

385
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,360
Speaker 1: For me, I think betting Hinz to survive this fight

386
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 1: to go a little bit longer could potentially be the

387
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 1: value side. You are certainly betting into a lot of

388
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 1: uncertainty there, but I do think that is where I

389
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: projected value on this matchup. Prop I really like, or

390
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,120
Speaker 1: a couple props that really like come in Terence McKinney,

391
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:59,119
Speaker 1: who's minus one eighty against Batchislav Borshev at plus one

392
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,439
Speaker 1: fifty in the lightweight vision. McKinney always live to finish

393
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 1: his opponents early. He can wrestle proactively, gets sixteen wins

394
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 1: fifteen inside of round one, good submission skills and great

395
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 1: power on the feat as well, but he is a

396
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 1: massive last cannon with no gas tank, and he tends

397
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 1: to fold if his opponents survive that early storms. Slava

398
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,200
Speaker 1: has only defended takedowns, though at a forty three percent clip,

399
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 1: he is very likely to get taken down early here.

400
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:29,160
Speaker 1: He has also shown less in durability as he continues

401
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: to progress on his UFC run, So I think McKinney

402
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 1: going to be dangerous and live to finish this fight

403
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 1: in round one as he is against any opponent, but

404
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 1: I do think this is a particularly good matchup for

405
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 1: him to potentially find that finish. That said, if this

406
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 1: fight extends past five minutes, If this fight extends past

407
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: three and a half or four minutes, I think Slava

408
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 1: takes over. So I'd imagine we both like Slava live

409
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 1: after round one, probably going to get a better price

410
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 1: than you will on his pre fight line. But I

411
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 1: really like Slava to win in round two at plus

412
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 1: seven to fifty or to win in round three at

413
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 1: sixteen to one. Billy, you were going potentially with the

414
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 1: other side of this fight arly, or you're just gonna

415
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 1: wait and live at bor Chev, do you have any

416
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 1: interest in taking his money on it all pre fight

417
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 1: you're just gonna wait.

418
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 3: For live on.

419
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm personally waiting for the live bet if you

420
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 4: weren't going to be able to bet this live. And

421
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 4: I'll talk about why this is especially tricky in a

422
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 4: second plus one fifty or so on Cybo Claus. I

423
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 4: think is fine as an underdog just because he has

424
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 4: been fairly durable. He still has no knockout loss, has

425
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 4: been dropped a couple of times, but usually recovers likes

426
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 4: to brawl, but yeah, the best way to play it,

427
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 4: by far is borschev live. The problem is you can't

428
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 4: even wait till the end of round one because McKinney's

429
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,199
Speaker 4: longest win in the UFC has been two minutes and

430
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 4: seventeen seconds and he's been finished twice in the first round.

431
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 4: Once it gets to that point, so if you wait

432
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 4: to the end of round one, it might be over.

433
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:52,719
Speaker 4: You gotta be really quick on it. You gotta have

434
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 4: you know, the props open as the fights are happening.

435
00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 4: Is as soon as McKinny has a big moment, takedown, knockdown, strikes, whatever,

436
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 4: you got to fire that slava clause live betend right

437
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 4: away because the comeback is imminent if it's going to

438
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 4: happen at all. So it is a tricky spot to

439
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 4: bet live if it makes it to the under round

440
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,360
Speaker 4: one by all means, you know, hammer slava clause, I think, honestly,

441
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 4: in a lot of ways, the likeliest finishes are McKinney

442
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 4: in the first half of the first round, slava clause

443
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 4: in the second. That is typically how t REX fights go,

444
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,640
Speaker 4: So be ready or you know, if you just need

445
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 4: a little bit of action ahead of time. I like

446
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 4: the plus one fifty pre fight, but would greatly prefer

447
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 4: to be waiting live because we get some crazy numbers.

448
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 4: You know when guys get dropped or taken down by

449
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:37,439
Speaker 4: Terrence McKinney.

450
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 1: Let's talk about a fight from a perspective this week

451
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 1: that you're attacking on Underdog. The biggest favorite potentially in

452
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: UFC history is Jacoby Smith coming in north of minus

453
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: twenty five hundred against Nico Price in the welterweight division.

454
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 1: Kobe two inches shorter. Price has a four inch reach

455
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 1: advantage as well, but Jacoby Smith wrestles at Oklahoma State.

456
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: Price is defended takedown at just the fifty two percent

457
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 1: clip in the UFC. And you know you can go

458
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: yard all baseball season long with Underdogs.

459
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 3: Pick and Games.

460
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: Underdog is one of the leading sports apps, and you can

461
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 1: play now in your state. Millions fans have already won

462
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 1: billions making picks on Underdogs. Will you be next?

463
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 3: Play?

464
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 1: All you have to do is download the app and

465
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: choose whether a player will go higher or lower on

466
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 1: one of their sets. You can choose from things like

467
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 1: home run, strikeouts, little bases, and so much more, and

468
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: once your picks feel good. You can play with as

469
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: little as one dollar. If you get everything right, you

470
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: could win up to one thousand times your money. And

471
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: since we're talking to you of the to day Billy

472
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 1: for this Jacoby Smith against Neco Price fight, what did

473
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 1: you cook off on this matchup?

474
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 4: Fight is a strong word for what we're going to

475
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 4: see here between these two men. I'm very grateful for

476
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,239
Speaker 4: Underdog for putting the time prop under Jacoby Smith and

477
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 4: not under Nico Price, because I'm going lower than four

478
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 4: and a half minutes fight time. Jacoby Smith very likely

479
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 4: to pick up a first round finish here and then

480
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 4: along with that Nico Price lower than seventeen point five

481
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 4: significant strikes. It's really hard to land a significant strikes

482
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 4: if you're either unconscious or being taken down the whole time,

483
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 4: and those are probably the two likeliest things to happen

484
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 4: here to Nico Price has had issues with their ability,

485
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: been knocked out twice in his last four fights, just

486
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 4: getting fed to the uber prospect in Jacoby Smith. He

487
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 4: has big power on the feet, can definitely knock you

488
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 4: out on the ground, and a multiple time All American wrestler.

489
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: So this is a horrible matchup for Nico Price.

490
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure he offended somebody at the UFC offices

491
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 4: to even be here, But I like the way we're

492
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: able to structure that on Underdog. They did a great

493
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 4: job of putting this one together. And if you want

494
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 4: to join in with me until this, you can download

495
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 4: the Underdog app and sign up with Promo Code Action

496
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 4: Network unlock a special offer of up to one thousand

497
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 4: dollars in bonus cash when you make your first deposit.

498
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 4: That's Promo Code Action Network. Must be eighteen plus nineteen

499
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 4: plus in Alabama, Nebraska, nineteen plus in Colorado for some games,

500
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 4: and twenty one plus in Massachusetts and Arizona, and present

501
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 4: in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply BOYD

502
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 4: in Colorado, concerned with your play called one eight hundred

503
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 4: Gambler or visit NCP gambling dot Org. In Arizona called

504
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 4: one eight hundred Next Step or text next step to

505
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 4: five three three four to two, and in New York

506
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 4: called the twenty four to seven Hope line at one

507
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 4: eight seven seven eight Hope and Why or text hope

508
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 4: and why. I will get us started on some of

509
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 4: the prop slash underdogs that we are looking at one

510
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 4: fight we're both interested in is Peyton Talbot taking on

511
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 4: Felipe Lima. There's a huge market correction for Peyton Talbot.

512
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 4: He was more than a minus one thousand favorite and

513
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 4: his last fight got wrestled to death by Heyonu Barcelos,

514
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 4: very disappointing, upset people kind of writing them off as

515
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 4: fraud checked all those things. But now he's taken on

516
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 4: Felipe Lima in a much more stylistically appropriate matchup for Talbot.

517
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 4: These guys are both strikers, they both like to trade

518
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 4: on the feet. I think Talbot has the counter striking

519
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 4: ability where he is able to counter the extreme aggressi

520
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 4: that Felipe a Lima brings to the table, and it's

521
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 4: just a huge overcorrection based on what we've seen Talbot

522
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 4: priced at in the past. I have the full breakdown

523
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 4: of this one coming this weekend. I have two bets

524
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 4: on this one. My first one is on Peyton Talbot

525
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 4: as an underdog at around plus one fifty. The other bet,

526
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 4: I like the under two and a half, also around

527
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 4: the same price. I've got that at plus one fifty four.

528
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 4: If these guys are trading on the feet as I expect,

529
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 4: I think Talbot will land the cleaner shots and win

530
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 4: more of the minutes. But Lima is extremely dangerous and

531
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 4: can land big strikes at any time. So half a

532
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 4: unit on both of those you win. If Lima you win.

533
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 4: If either guy gets a knockout early, you profit. If

534
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 4: Talbot wins by any method, or ideally Talbot gets a

535
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 4: finish in the first two and a half rounds, you

536
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 4: cash both bets. Sean, you're back with us. I know

537
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 4: you have some interest in felipe A Limover's Peyton Talbot

538
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 4: a little bit of a different angle.

539
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: Tell me about what you got.

540
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, some technical difficulties for your boy this week. My apologies.

541
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 1: But Peyton Talbot, I think is a value to win

542
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: by decision of plus four seventy fourges Pallar two inch reach.

543
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: The market on Talbot has been fascinating because I thought

544
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 1: the in hindsight, the minus one seventy five line against

545
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 1: Cameron Salmon an absolute feel. But then he came in

546
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: as a minus twelve fifty favorite and lost Auntie Barcellos.

547
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 1: Now he's an underdog, and the underdog odds they're almost

548
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 1: reflective more of how he was priced against Salmon than

549
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: how he was priced against Barcellos. Lima not the most

550
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: proactive grappler. I do think he is the better all

551
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 1: around fighter. I prefer him as a prospect given his

552
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: well round skill set. Frankly, I'm very high on talibe Leman.

553
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 1: I think he could be a future champion, if not

554
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: a title challenger at a minimum. Would have thought the

555
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: same about Tayton Talot until his recent fight. That said,

556
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: you know round three as Barcelos tired, he did rally

557
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: showed good volume in that third round, and Albert is

558
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 1: always going to have good volume in any of his fights,

559
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 1: and I think he may have superior output compared to Lima,

560
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 1: who is more of a finisher. Kerries big power, but

561
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 1: I think as a result he's a big relyant on

562
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: that power and it's easy to forget given the third

563
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: round finish. But Lima lost round one against Muhammed Daimov.

564
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: Round two was very close before he finished him. I

565
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 1: think he landed a couple of takedowns against Miles John

566
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: so he showed that he can grapple, but he doesn't

567
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: necessarily proactively grapple, and if he doesn't proactively grapple against

568
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: Peyton Talbot, I think the volume is either going to

569
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 1: be extremely close if not favor Talbot. So yeah, give

570
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 1: me Talbot by decision at plus four seventy. Despite how

571
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: high I am on Lima, I think that this fight

572
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: goes all fifteen minutes, It's going to be competitive, and

573
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: it could be a potential split, and I'm happy to

574
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 1: take the big plus money side of things. If you

575
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: give me a minus one ten, ask me which prospect

576
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: do I think is better. I'd probably take Lima, but

577
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: given the odds, I think I have to side to

578
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: Talbot and particularly Tablet by decision. I do make this

579
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 1: fight minus one forty to go to a decision. The

580
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 1: market odds are minus one fifty, so no bet for

581
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 1: me on a GTD. That is where i'd lean. I

582
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,360
Speaker 1: know you lean to the under, but I do think

583
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 1: if this fight does go fifteen minutes, it's likelier that

584
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: Talbot is the one being his hand raised, or I

585
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 1: should say, if I think a decision favors Talbot's chances,

586
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 1: I think it's finished favors le mis chances, and I

587
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 1: think it would likely come be a submission. Another fight

588
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: that you like to end inside the distance. Philly Gregory

589
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: RoboCop Rodriguez, it's about minus one ninety two, which I

590
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: think is fair value on his money line against Jack

591
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 1: ra Manson at plus one sixty. This fight is minus

592
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: one ten to end inside the distance, and RoboCop is

593
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: about plus one forty to win inside the distance. I

594
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: projected his id line at plus one thirty five. I

595
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: make his line minus two sixty. I would bet him

596
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: up to minus two twenty five. Jackets collar is two

597
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: inches taller or sorry I had RoboCop is two inches taller.

598
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: Jack is the reach advantage, but Jack does not have

599
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: the power to scare Robocops off of hurting him, off

600
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: of pressuring him. He has good kicks, but I don't

601
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 1: really think that's going to be much of a determince

602
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: at distance. So RoboCop should be able to get on

603
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: the inside here potentially hurt Jack. I doubt he's going

604
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: to have much success wrestling because here Manton has really

605
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: good defensive wrestling. But I do think RoboCop is a

606
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: chance I hurt him and finish this fight early. And

607
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: I know that's the angle that you like as well.

608
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 4: Yeah it is, I mean, and Rodriguez is a very

609
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 4: exciting fighter. Most of his fights and inside the distance

610
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 4: one way or the other, because he'll just stand there

611
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 4: and brawl her Manson. Kind of the opposite. He has

612
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 4: a way of kind of taking all the fun out

613
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: of a lot of the matchups he finds himself in

614
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 4: unless he gets into grappling exchanges. I think if there

615
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 4: is any grappling, like if her Manton gets clipped and

616
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 4: goes for it, Rodriguez is the better grappler, not better wrestler,

617
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 4: but his submission game disappearior. Although Rodriguez was on the

618
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 4: Brazilian national wrestling team, so it's not that he can't wrestle.

619
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 4: He's just, i'd say, a step below her Manson. I

620
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 4: just think this is a fairly heavy favorite who typically

621
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 4: gets finishes when he wins or gases out late, much

622
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 4: like you were saying with a decision favoring Talbot, which

623
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 4: I agree with. If you told me this fight definitely

624
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 4: ends inside the distance, I'd bet the house on Hobo Cop.

625
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 4: Obviously we don't know that in the case, but at

626
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 4: plus one point forty, I think it correlates really well. Again,

627
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 4: pretty much the exact same thing you're saying with Peyton Talbot,

628
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 4: but the inverse of that So.

629
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 3: That is my angle on there.

630
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 4: Not one of my favorite bets on the slate, but

631
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 4: definitely a bet I will be making.

632
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: I would imagine who's finish showing me money line. It

633
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: is probably prohibitive, but I didn't take a look at it.

634
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 4: But I looked at it earlier and it was Yeah,

635
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 4: it was something crazy. I don't remember the exact numbers,

636
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 4: but that was my first angle and I was like, yeah,

637
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 4: no way, that's not worth laying that kind of juice.

638
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: Yep, another fight. We want to talk to you before

639
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: we get to your best bets, and then we're gonna

640
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: have one other fight that we talked about after a

641
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 1: best bets because it is one of the best fights

642
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: on the car Josh Fan against Brandon Roybaud. Will make

643
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: sure to get to that fight before we signed off

644
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: on the show. But hider a Meal against Pose Delgado

645
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: another potential banger here because a Meal just goes forward

646
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: and swings bombs. Got a two inches taller, has a

647
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: fore inch reach advantage, and potentially most importantly, he's eight

648
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 1: years younger. Emil's thirty three, getting closer to his mid thirties.

649
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: This fight the undefeated thirty five. Yeah, despite the undefeated

650
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: record despite the very aggressive fighting style in phenomenal shape.

651
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: But I'm not sure if he's going to be able

652
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: to maintain that style forever, given the age and just

653
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: given the cumulative damage he's likely to take fighting in

654
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: that way of compared him, it's not the same exact style,

655
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: but the tenacity the aggression reminds me of vander Ley Silva.

656
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: It's the closest thing we have in terms of the

657
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 1: guy that's willing to go forward recklessly in twenty twenty

658
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: five in the UFC, but very popular pick the sweek

659
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: hier north of sixty percent basically across every public projection,

660
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: across betting percentages as well. I think Delgado is the

661
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: ignoredic contrarian side here as the favorite. As I said,

662
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: two inches taller, a foreignch reach advantage, but most importantly

663
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 1: the much younger man, and he's train coming from MMA Labs.

664
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: It just needs to survive the early storm. I'd play

665
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: him small pre fight on the money line, and I

666
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 1: would look to add more live after round one. But

667
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: I actually also like this fight to go to a

668
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: decision at plus one seventy. I projected that closer to

669
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: about plus one point twenty. Obviously it's correlated with Dogato

670
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: weathering that early storm, So do Goato money line small

671
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: probably pre fight, Dogato goes to decision small pre fight,

672
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: and then I'd look to add Dogado live after round one. Billy,

673
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: I believe you like the GTD in this might as well.

674
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: Is that correct?

675
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 4: I do for a couple of reasons. One, while hyder

676
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 4: A Mill is old, he doesn't have an extensive fighting career.

677
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 4: He had just two amateur fights, took a few years off,

678
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 4: and then eleven is a pro. Never really even been

679
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 4: hurt in any of those fights from what I can tell,

680
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 4: certainly not in the UFC, probably not before. So you

681
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 4: know the age is up there, but the mileage is

682
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 4: not bad on hyder A Mill.

683
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 3: I agree with you.

684
00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: If he keeps doing this for a few more years,

685
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 4: it's going to pretty rough. Both guys actually have greater

686
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 4: than fifty percent striking defense in their time in the UFC,

687
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 4: despite being fairly aggressive. Most importantly for the ghosted decision, though,

688
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 4: both guys will mix in the occasional takedown if they

689
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 4: get clipped or their opponent gets too aggressive, they'll both

690
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 4: throw one in there. They've also both shown that they're

691
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 4: capable of being taken down, So this feels like a

692
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 4: fight where one or both of them has some moments

693
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 4: on the feet and the other guy immediately at least

694
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 4: pushes him against the fence, if not gets it all

695
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 4: the way to the ground, recovers, and then you know,

696
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 4: next round we're a little bit more tired, a little

697
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 4: bit less power, and so on and so on until

698
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 4: we get to the end of the fight. I thought

699
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 4: the ghosted decision here would be like plus one ten,

700
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 4: plus one twenty, plus one seventy two. I really like

701
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 4: that's a big price for that one. You know, this

702
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 4: is not one of the heavier weight classes we expect

703
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 4: to get finished all the time. Neither guy has a

704
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 4: history of being chinny at all, so pretty surprised that

705
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 4: we're getting that number.

706
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely a big number, especially compared to the divisional

707
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: average about a forty percent decision rate in three round

708
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: featherweight fights, so should be about plus like you said,

709
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: about plus one ten to plus one twenty compared to

710
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,479
Speaker 1: the average for the division A meil finishes fights more

711
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 1: regularly than a divisional average, but I think at best

712
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 1: this should be plus one forty plus one fifty nine

713
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: plus one seventy two. So yeah, definitely getting some extra

714
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,399
Speaker 1: juice there, giving a meal fighting style combined Best bet

715
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: this week on Vanil dariusch Co nine best bet. Dariush

716
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 1: did open closer to plus one thirty. I believe even money.

717
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: He's now moved to minus money, getting close to minus

718
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: one oh five. This fight is also plus one ten

719
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 1: to go to a decision. I projected it north of

720
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 1: sixty percent and minus one fifty implied, so I like

721
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 1: both Darius and the fight to go to a decision. Now,

722
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 1: these guys are both old thirty six years old. They

723
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 1: have significant strike differential for their career by exactly one

724
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 1: strike per minute at distance where they separate. I think

725
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: moy Kano is the better submission grappler, but Darius is

726
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 1: the better wrestler and likelier to get on top and

727
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: hold position. He's the more proactive wrestler as well, averaging

728
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 1: three point seven takedowns for five minutes a distance compared

729
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: to two point one for Mikano, and he spent more

730
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 1: time controlling grappling positions. Eighty two percent of grappling time

731
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: controlled by Dariush compared to sixty five percent for Mikano

732
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: both a little bit chinny, as I said, both getting

733
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: into their mid to late thirties. I do favor Maikano

734
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: down the stretch, and I favor his boxing as well,

735
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: but I think Daryush is just the likelier to get

736
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 1: on top and hold position and generate damage from top

737
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,439
Speaker 1: position here as the better wrestler. They like Gary usch

738
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 1: up to about minus one point fifteen, and then it

739
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: goes to the decision, as I said, at about a

740
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 1: pick em price or better and you can get plus money. Currently, Billy,

741
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 1: what's your read on this fight? What are your price targets,

742
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: and then any other props you're considering aside from Dariush

743
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 1: money line.

744
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I jumped on Daryushi plus one to eighteen in

745
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 4: my luck writings, and this is why I published the

746
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 4: early week article so I can quote these better prices

747
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 4: when stuff moves like that. It's actually a fairly simple

748
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 4: breakdown for me. Benil Darius is a very good fighter,

749
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 4: very skilled, has a really hard time with guys who

750
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 4: have big knockout power. His last two losses to Armin

751
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 4: Seraki and Charles Olivera both one shot first round knockouts.

752
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 4: To go way back His last loss prior to that

753
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 4: was twenty eighteen, Alex Hernandez knocked him out in forty

754
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 4: two seconds, got dropped by Edson Barbosa and knocked out.

755
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 4: That is just what happens. If he's going to lose,

756
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 4: it's because a guy has huge one hit power. Nato

757
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 4: Morkano does not have that. He has one knockdown in

758
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 4: the UFC, and it was when he was still a

759
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 4: featherweight back in twenty eighteen. Coming up at lightweight, he

760
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 4: can do attritional damage. He can accumulate you know, cuts

761
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 4: and wounds and all that stuff over time. Not a

762
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 4: guy gonna hurt you with one shot, and you have

763
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 4: to hurt Darius with one shot because he's an elite

764
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 4: wrestler and he will take you down as soon as

765
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 4: he gets hurt. Conversely, the people that beat Hanato Moikano

766
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 4: are the people that can take him down. Islam Makachev

767
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 4: Halfa Al Dosagno's are his two last losses. Both of

768
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 4: those guys, good wrestlers, took him down. Dari USh is

769
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 4: the archetype of a fighter that beats Hanato Moykano, and

770
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 4: Hanato Moikano is not the archetype of a fighter that

771
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 4: beats Benil dary Yush. I am worried about dary Ush's chin,

772
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 4: but it's been a while since we've seen him fight.

773
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 4: I hope that it gives him enough time to recover.

774
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 4: I'm just not as worried about it in a fight

775
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 4: with Morkano. I think I'd probably lay a little bit

776
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 4: of juice on Dariusch had I not got him at

777
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 4: minus it, I not got him at plus money, probably

778
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 4: take him down to minus one fifteen or so. As

779
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 4: far as props, I like, you know, dari USh mixed

780
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 4: with the over. If this gets finished fast, it is

781
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 4: probably because mo Kano got a knockout. Any iteration of late,

782
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 4: you know, the round three decision prop sgps with the over,

783
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 4: anything along those lines would be my alternate angle on

784
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 4: dary USh.

785
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 1: A couple of fights that we can get to before

786
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: we get out of here with their UFC three seventeen previews.

787
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: The first fight on the card, Chris Hewart against Jack's McVay.

788
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: I don't have any thoughts on still waiting on more

789
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: lines to open for this fight. McVay has beautiful hair.

790
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 1: Aside from that, I don't have much analysis on this

791
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 1: fight anything for you and you were against McVay.

792
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got to look this up real quick. One

793
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 4: of the beloved members of the Action Network Discord did

794
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 4: a deep dive on some tape on these guys, and

795
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 4: I want to make sure I credit the right person here,

796
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 4: so that would be our boy Gilligan in the Discord,

797
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 4: who is falling in love with mcveigh's tape, says he

798
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 4: has an excellent game plan, uses Muay Thai at range

799
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 4: and then initiate clinches with good jiu jitsu when he

800
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 4: gets in tight. I don't know that that's true. I

801
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 4: had a hard time finding tape on McVeigh, But in

802
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 4: solidarity with Gilligan's reed and McVeigh now being plus money,

803
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 4: I'm going to take a little sprinkle at it. I

804
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 4: encourage everyone to join the Action Network Discord, where we

805
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 4: have plenty of sharp people on there doing stuff like

806
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 4: breaking down tape that Zerrilla and I don't necessarily have

807
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 4: time to get to.

808
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

809
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 1: I love that great shout out there. Appreciate the boys

810
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 1: in the Action Network Discord.

811
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 3: Final Fight.

812
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: I want to get to you before we jump off

813
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 1: for the day. I have to talk about Brandon Royval

814
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 1: against Joshua Van Banger in the front Byway division. Van

815
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: is coming in here, though on short notice. I believe

816
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 1: in place of Manel Coop, who keeps pulling out of fights.

817
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: Is a big step up in competition for Van. He

818
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 1: fought I believe, three weeks ago, so he's cutting weight

819
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 1: the second time in three weeks, taking a step up

820
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 1: in competition. Projections really like him this week. Roval tends

821
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: to be the more popular pick, but I do lean

822
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 1: the Royval direction considering the spot for Van on a

823
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: full camp. I think we agreed yesterday on a full

824
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 1: camp we might be betting Van here on short notice

825
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 1: having cut weight three weeks ago, even though he won

826
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 1: that fight relatively clean against Bruno Silva. I think this

827
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 1: could be a potential spot to live at Royval. Considering

828
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: Van is usually the guy everybody's looking to live bet

829
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: after round one, I think Royval could be the livet

830
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: spot after round one here. Both guys offer excellent volume

831
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: and frankly, Royval is like the opposite type of fire

832
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: and Van is the beating recently guys who tend to

833
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 1: fade after round one. Guy want to grapple him a

834
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 1: little bit. Reyvalt can keep up on the output, but

835
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,399
Speaker 1: he can also mix in some grappling of his own,

836
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 1: and I think even more so to the live point

837
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: if Royval has not grappled in round one and then

838
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 1: say closing copedder ground or if he loses the round,

839
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 1: I'm even more interested in why betting him, knowing that

840
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: he may be saving the grappling in his back pocket

841
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: down the stretch. I do show value on this fight

842
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: to go to a decision, I make it closer to

843
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: minus two point fifty it is minus two hundred currently.

844
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 1: But this should be a very high paced fight where

845
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 1: both of them are swinging thrown at high volume. And

846
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: I think roy Val has submission some submission upside in

847
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:41,280
Speaker 1: his game as well. So Projection say Van, Projection say GTD.

848
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: I kind of leaned Royval and under here we're definitely

849
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 1: going to be live betting him after round one either way.

850
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 1: What's your pre fight here? Read Billy, and then I

851
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 1: know you'll be joining on the live bet as well.

852
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, we've discussed this one pretty extensively coming into this podcast.

853
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 4: I am betting Josh Van pre fight for two reasons.

854
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 4: One has been with a full camp. I'd be very

855
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 4: confident in him at this price. The second one is

856
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 4: because what I really want here is to set up

857
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 4: a situation where I don't care who wins, and I've

858
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 4: got an arbitrage and make money either way. I think

859
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 4: the way to do that is Josh Van pre fight

860
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 4: Brandon Royvel. After round one you hit most of the

861
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 4: salient points. The only other thing I would say Royvell

862
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 4: has been in I think three or four consecutive five

863
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 4: round fights. Guys tend to modulate their pacing a little

864
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 4: bit for those fights, and it's hard to switch that

865
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 4: back to three round fight pace where you push it

866
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 4: a little bit more early. We've seen a couple fighters

867
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 4: struggle with that. Rosnami Unis, notably when she came back

868
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 4: to a three round fight. Pretty slow going in the

869
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 4: beginning of some of her fights, So that is something

870
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 4: I think will favor. The live angle on Brandon Royvale

871
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 4: fairly likely to lose the first round if he is coasting.

872
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 4: Van also has more knockout upside early, I believe, just

873
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 4: with the tremendous volume of strikes he shows and his

874
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 4: improving power. So for me, it is half a unit

875
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,919
Speaker 4: on Van pre fight and then looking to get back

876
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 4: live on roy Val hopefully at plus money cash the

877
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 4: ticket either way.

878
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and as I said, my projections would certainly recommend

879
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: that as the value side of the fight as well.

880
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 1: It does have van closer to minus one thirty minus

881
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 1: one forty briefight, So I think laying a small van

882
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: ticket freefight and then trying to get Royvall alive could

883
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 1: be a good spot. Betting the GTD kind of leans

884
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 1: into that angle as well. Maybe even Royvall and an

885
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 1: SGP with an over one and a half or over

886
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 1: two and a half or just revolved by decision kind

887
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 1: of leans into the Royvalle later angles as well. But

888
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 1: that'll do it for UC betting preview for UFC three seventeen.

889
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 1: You can find more UFC betting content for both Billy

890
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 1: and myself and are other Action contributors on Action network

891
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 1: dot com. And if you'd like to instantly tail some

892
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: of the bets that we discussed on today's show, look

893
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 1: for clips the clinks both in the podcast and the

894
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 1: video description, or visit Action network dot com slash bet

895
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,959
Speaker 1: now don't take it forget to download the free award

896
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: winning actionwork Gap and sign up for Action Pro for

897
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 1: immediate access to expert picks and analysis, best of left

898
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 1: with all your bets this weekend, enjoy the violence. Thank

899
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 1: you for listening. We'll be back here in a couple

900
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 1: of weeks. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

901
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

902
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

903
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler