WEBVTT - Buck Brief - The Great Big Election Data Deep Dive 0:00:11.697 --> 0:00:14.977 You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 0:00:15.017 --> 0:00:18.017 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:18.057 --> 0:00:20.017 wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:20.417 --> 0:00:24.377 Hey, guys, welcome to the Buck Brief Pre election edition. 0:00:25.297 --> 0:00:29.297 Within about twenty four hours or so of you listening 0:00:29.297 --> 0:00:32.737 to your watching this podcast, we'll actually have election results 0:00:32.777 --> 0:00:37.337 in some of the states. So yeah, that's where we are. Now, 0:00:37.497 --> 0:00:40.137 let's just take a dive into it with our friend 0:00:40.217 --> 0:00:45.297 Ryan Gerdusky, National Populist Newsletter is his on substack. He 0:00:45.897 --> 0:00:50.457 is the conquistador of CNN, and he joins us now 0:00:52.257 --> 0:00:52.937 he chokes us. 0:00:52.977 --> 0:00:53.097 Now. 0:00:53.137 --> 0:00:55.817 That seemed to work. I feel if that goes Yeah, 0:00:56.137 --> 0:00:58.817 I like that, you know what I mean, You know 0:00:58.857 --> 0:01:03.497 what I'm saying. So, okay, tell me this Trump's gonna 0:01:03.497 --> 0:01:05.417 win this thing. What do we know from the early vote? 0:01:05.457 --> 0:01:08.057 I mean, give me the top line on what really matters. 0:01:08.097 --> 0:01:10.617 Early votes are in. What do we know for sure 0:01:11.257 --> 0:01:12.777 as we talk right now? 0:01:13.137 --> 0:01:16.857 So it looks very so unless something radical changes on 0:01:16.897 --> 0:01:19.297 election day, and it could because I don't like making 0:01:19.377 --> 0:01:23.417 certain predictions. I learned my lesson in twenty two. If 0:01:23.417 --> 0:01:28.177 something doesn't change, the black vote is down substantially and 0:01:28.217 --> 0:01:31.377 for every one black voter who doesn't show up, Democrats 0:01:31.417 --> 0:01:35.417 need like one point five to to college educated white 0:01:35.457 --> 0:01:37.497 voters to make up for them. Depending on the state, 0:01:37.537 --> 0:01:39.097 they need more, like in Georgia they would need like 0:01:39.217 --> 0:01:42.537 five basically to show up. Because Republicans win the college 0:01:42.537 --> 0:01:46.137 is Acada white vote in Georgia. That means a lot. 0:01:46.257 --> 0:01:49.577 In Georgia right now compared to twenty twenty, the black 0:01:49.657 --> 0:01:52.417 vote is down over one hundred thousand votes. It's a 0:01:52.497 --> 0:01:54.097 lot of votes to have to make up, and they 0:01:54.137 --> 0:01:58.617 are typically not election day voters, they are typically early voters. 0:02:00.537 --> 0:02:04.497 In North Carolina, it is down substantially. In Ohio. I 0:02:04.537 --> 0:02:07.297 just did these members today for a candidate in Ohio. 0:02:07.417 --> 0:02:12.937 The three biggest blue counties Hoga, Franklin, and whatever one 0:02:13.257 --> 0:02:13.857 is in the middle. 0:02:13.857 --> 0:02:14.377 I forget them. 0:02:14.417 --> 0:02:18.777 But those three counties in twenty twenty were twenty eight 0:02:18.857 --> 0:02:22.657 point five percent of all early voters. They're currently twenty 0:02:22.737 --> 0:02:25.537 four point seventy five percent of all early early voters. 0:02:25.777 --> 0:02:30.177 The rurals almost everywhere are on fire with huge turnout numbers. 0:02:30.537 --> 0:02:33.977 Those are all good things for Trump, bad things for Trump. 0:02:34.297 --> 0:02:37.097 College educated white voters are almost certainly voting for her 0:02:37.337 --> 0:02:41.297 in big numbers possibly bigger than twenty twenty, and she 0:02:41.377 --> 0:02:45.137 will win a majority of every minority group that will 0:02:45.137 --> 0:02:47.217 also work for her, and the women vote is very, 0:02:47.297 --> 0:02:50.897 very large. Those things are working for her. Election day 0:02:50.937 --> 0:02:53.537 bat will matter tremendously and it will just have to 0:02:53.577 --> 0:02:55.937 wait and see who is going to show up and 0:02:56.017 --> 0:02:59.377 if Republicans have the momentum to show up on election day? 0:03:00.257 --> 0:03:02.497 Is it fair to say that Trump is in a 0:03:02.577 --> 0:03:07.617 better position twenty four hours before states are calling the 0:03:07.657 --> 0:03:09.977 elections for one side or the other than he was 0:03:10.097 --> 0:03:11.897 in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. 0:03:12.577 --> 0:03:15.497 Oh. Absolutely, In twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, everyone was 0:03:16.017 --> 0:03:19.417 like on the Titanic playing the violin. No one in 0:03:19.457 --> 0:03:22.417 his inner circle thought he could win. In sixteen maybe 0:03:22.497 --> 0:03:25.737 like maybe, like Steve Bennaditt, but most people didn't. And 0:03:25.777 --> 0:03:28.657 in twenty twenty, most people thought it was over. I 0:03:28.657 --> 0:03:30.337 will say in twenty twenty, I thought that it was 0:03:30.377 --> 0:03:34.897 going He was not going to win reelection. So it's 0:03:34.937 --> 0:03:38.577 a much different game this time around. It's very very close. 0:03:38.897 --> 0:03:42.617 Democrats are banking on a huge support of white voters 0:03:42.617 --> 0:03:45.697 for kamalaw This is a group that they've had major 0:03:45.737 --> 0:03:48.457 polling errors within the past that I've said about repeatedly, 0:03:49.097 --> 0:03:52.937 and if the black vote is down, there is not 0:03:53.217 --> 0:03:55.537 enough college educato whites to get her out of that. 0:03:55.897 --> 0:03:58.097 So that is why she spent her entire day today 0:03:58.137 --> 0:04:01.977 in Pittsburgh and Philly. That is why Democrats are all 0:04:02.017 --> 0:04:04.057 over the South right now, that is why they went 0:04:04.097 --> 0:04:06.097 to sit there while Obama said to black man, you 0:04:06.217 --> 0:04:10.457 have to go vote or otherwise you're patronizing tours blackack women. 0:04:11.337 --> 0:04:13.817 They're very worried. The black mail vote is down substantially. 0:04:13.857 --> 0:04:16.897 It's the rural black vote is way down. The urban 0:04:16.937 --> 0:04:18.217 black vote is slightly down. 0:04:19.057 --> 0:04:23.017 Now is it the the black vote overall very much 0:04:23.017 --> 0:04:27.257 down or is it disproportionately within the black vote men, 0:04:27.417 --> 0:04:30.657 black men who are not coming out for Kama. Do 0:04:30.697 --> 0:04:31.497 we know that yet? 0:04:32.257 --> 0:04:36.097 Yeah, the black mail vote is way down. The black 0:04:36.257 --> 0:04:39.697 overall vote is down because of the black mail vote. 0:04:40.217 --> 0:04:42.737 Because the black mail vote is so far down, it 0:04:42.777 --> 0:04:45.817 is bringing the overall black vote down. And these are 0:04:45.897 --> 0:04:49.417 people Typically election days in Georgia, for example, and North 0:04:49.457 --> 0:04:54.817 Carolina are whiter and more Republican than early voting. So 0:04:54.857 --> 0:04:58.417 the fact that that is the history. Now, of course, 0:04:58.777 --> 0:05:02.457 strikes can be broken things can change. But everyone who 0:05:02.537 --> 0:05:04.537 has been watching these for a long time estimate that 0:05:04.577 --> 0:05:06.537 the number of the percentage of black vote is going 0:05:06.577 --> 0:05:08.897 to go down post election day. So if we wake 0:05:09.017 --> 0:05:12.737 up on you know, tomorrow morning and there is seventeen 0:05:14.417 --> 0:05:19.057 lock long lines in Atlanta and in Philadelphia, that's very 0:05:19.137 --> 0:05:22.657 good for Harris. If there are not, she's going to 0:05:22.737 --> 0:05:26.897 need an immense, immense turnout from white college educated voters 0:05:26.897 --> 0:05:28.217 to make up that difference. 0:05:28.337 --> 0:05:30.097 All right, I want to say we're going to get 0:05:30.097 --> 0:05:35.217 into Pennsylvania next, and then I want your Michigan, Wisconsin, 0:05:35.417 --> 0:05:38.497 and we'll say sort of, you know, lightning round on 0:05:38.537 --> 0:05:40.937 anything else, any other states that you think need need 0:05:40.937 --> 0:05:44.257 particular attention. We'll go to Pennsylvania next. But our sponsor 0:05:44.337 --> 0:05:48.297 here is Porter and Company. 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Democrats are about fifty six percent. 0:06:58.137 --> 0:07:01.217 I believe fifty six and a half percent. Democrats are 0:07:01.257 --> 0:07:04.137 down about seven hundred thousand votes from their twenty twenty number. 0:07:04.177 --> 0:07:07.137 Republicans are down about thirty thousand votes from their twenty 0:07:07.137 --> 0:07:09.297 twenty number, a few more will come in. I guess 0:07:09.457 --> 0:07:11.897 I'm you have. You have up to election day to 0:07:11.977 --> 0:07:14.137 mail your vote or to just hand it in at 0:07:14.137 --> 0:07:16.097 the polling site, So I imagine they're going to hit 0:07:16.097 --> 0:07:19.577 their twenty twenty number. What is an interesting fact is 0:07:19.857 --> 0:07:22.897 that for Republicans, their best counties are in the northeast 0:07:22.897 --> 0:07:25.097 part of the state, which have a huge amount of 0:07:25.297 --> 0:07:29.057 New Yorkers who fled there during COVID, and in rural 0:07:29.137 --> 0:07:32.577 western Pennsylvania, where they have surpassed their twenty twenty numbers 0:07:32.577 --> 0:07:35.377 in almost every county outside of Allegheny, the home of Pittsburgh, 0:07:35.377 --> 0:07:41.697 and Erie, which is another city. What Democrats. What is 0:07:41.737 --> 0:07:45.417 interesting about Democrats is democrats best counties are Tioga County, 0:07:45.457 --> 0:07:50.017 Potter County, Bradford County, Adams County. Now that may not 0:07:50.097 --> 0:07:54.377 mean anything to you, but those are all mega Trump counties. 0:07:54.417 --> 0:07:58.737 Those are all seventy to eighty percent Trump counties. What 0:07:58.817 --> 0:08:00.737 that sits there and says to me, and the only 0:08:00.777 --> 0:08:02.417 way to get seventy or eighty percent in those kinds 0:08:02.417 --> 0:08:05.177 of counties because you get ancestral Democrats to vote Republican 0:08:05.297 --> 0:08:07.297 because there's not enough Republicans to make up eighty percent 0:08:07.337 --> 0:08:09.537 of the vote. What that says to me is conservative 0:08:09.537 --> 0:08:13.817 Democrats are as eager to vote for Trump as conservative Republicans. 0:08:14.537 --> 0:08:17.697 That's a very good sign for them. On the other side, 0:08:17.737 --> 0:08:20.897 there is a lot of lower propensity Democrats who have 0:08:20.937 --> 0:08:23.577 already voted the Republican lower pensity. I remember, it's not 0:08:23.697 --> 0:08:27.737 traditional early ballot state, early voting state, because they don't 0:08:27.777 --> 0:08:29.217 do early ballots. They sit there and they have to 0:08:29.217 --> 0:08:32.377 mail them as a whole bit to do. And they 0:08:32.377 --> 0:08:34.217 have a lot in Philadelphia. They could still sit there 0:08:34.217 --> 0:08:36.737 and get so that's the good thing for Democrats. There's 0:08:36.737 --> 0:08:39.617 a lot more Philadelphia, there's a lot in the in 0:08:39.657 --> 0:08:42.617 the Coller counties of Philadelphia. For the Republicans though, is 0:08:42.617 --> 0:08:46.177 that they're not playing games. In twenty twenty, Republicans led 0:08:46.177 --> 0:08:49.377 in eight counties of the sixty seven in Pennsylvania. They 0:08:49.457 --> 0:08:53.417 currently lead in forty today, mostly rural, mostly small. But 0:08:53.457 --> 0:08:56.857 they're not playing games. They're actually showed up and voted early, 0:08:56.897 --> 0:08:59.777 which is a very very big deal. I know. 0:08:59.817 --> 0:09:01.817 I said that we would do Pennsylvania and then moved 0:09:01.857 --> 0:09:06.337 to Michigan, Wisconsin, but actually wild card the Iowa Seltzer 0:09:06.457 --> 0:09:10.177 poll that Democrats were doing backflips over with the all 0:09:10.217 --> 0:09:14.297 their excitement over the weekend. You know you're the pole guy, right, 0:09:14.377 --> 0:09:15.977 I don't know what I am. I'm not the pole guy. 0:09:16.017 --> 0:09:18.937 I'm the other stuff guy. But I can sit here 0:09:18.977 --> 0:09:23.817 and say that if Kamala Harris wins Iowa, she's winning 0:09:23.857 --> 0:09:26.697 everything that's even vaguely close, right, I mean Donald Trump 0:09:26.697 --> 0:09:30.377 didn't even Iowa by eight and twenty twenty, So why she's. 0:09:30.137 --> 0:09:33.017 Winning iowash Yeah, if she's winning Iowa, she's winning Ohio, 0:09:33.017 --> 0:09:34.097 in Florida, That's. 0:09:33.937 --> 0:09:36.497 What I mean. Like, it seems like that's completely insane. 0:09:36.617 --> 0:09:39.297 So what I don't just want to dismiss it as oh, 0:09:39.337 --> 0:09:42.217 it's you know, propaganda or whatever. People say. She's a 0:09:42.257 --> 0:09:44.937 decent pulster you pointed out I saw on Twitter. You know, 0:09:45.017 --> 0:09:47.657 she's been wrong big time a bunch of times too, right, 0:09:47.657 --> 0:09:50.297 I mean, as many polsters have. But what is she 0:09:50.377 --> 0:09:53.337 getting wrong? Like I want to learn from the error here, 0:09:53.457 --> 0:09:57.097 Like what is she missampling because maybe that's applying elsewhere, 0:09:57.177 --> 0:09:58.297 maybe it tells us something. 0:09:59.177 --> 0:10:01.857 So and she has been right in the last three 0:10:01.937 --> 0:10:04.377 presidential elections to like the point, and she's been right 0:10:04.457 --> 0:10:06.697 on a lot of US Senate elections. She's wrong almost 0:10:06.697 --> 0:10:11.817 every primary. I mean regularly every primary. But she doesn't 0:10:11.857 --> 0:10:16.177 weigh pass voter activity or partisan membership right. She doesn't 0:10:16.177 --> 0:10:19.457 weigh Republican Democrat when in twenty twenty the state was 0:10:19.457 --> 0:10:23.657 a point six percent Republican. Today it is six percent Republican. 0:10:24.017 --> 0:10:28.297 Every county has moved to the right. What she sat 0:10:28.337 --> 0:10:32.897 there and said is that the change for Kamala is 0:10:32.937 --> 0:10:36.697 coming out of two major groups senior citizen white women. 0:10:36.777 --> 0:10:39.017 Because remember in Iowa, almost every senior citizen is a 0:10:39.017 --> 0:10:42.577 white woman, Senior citizen white women, and senior citizen white men. 0:10:43.057 --> 0:10:45.377 She said, white men over sixty five moved thirty points 0:10:45.417 --> 0:10:47.697 to the left from twenty twenty, senior citism women with 0:10:47.777 --> 0:10:50.537 twenty nine points to the left. That's the entire thing. 0:10:50.937 --> 0:10:54.057 Her poll says that senior citizen women, only one in 0:10:54.297 --> 0:10:56.737 four white women over sixty five is voting for Trump 0:10:56.737 --> 0:11:01.017 in Iowa, and that only half of men white men 0:11:01.057 --> 0:11:06.097 are voting for Trump over sixty five. That seems very, very, 0:11:06.217 --> 0:11:08.697 very illogical. She also hays almost very little to no 0:11:08.817 --> 0:11:11.137 movement among independence So this would require Kamala to win 0:11:11.137 --> 0:11:15.297 about twenty to twenty five percent of senior citizen Republicans 0:11:16.337 --> 0:11:19.177 call me skeptical, but I don't think every Fox newsviewer 0:11:19.217 --> 0:11:22.937 who watches Sean Hannay become a resist live overnight. I 0:11:22.977 --> 0:11:25.857 think that there was a waiting issue. What a lot 0:11:25.897 --> 0:11:28.097 of people are sitting there and saying is that this 0:11:28.177 --> 0:11:32.217 is a sign that there's real movement among seniors towards Kamaal. 0:11:32.337 --> 0:11:34.457 This is proof of it, and maybe they're right. This 0:11:34.497 --> 0:11:37.817 is the narrative I have been extraordinarily skeptical of because 0:11:37.857 --> 0:11:39.817 it was the same narrative in twenty sixteen, and it 0:11:39.897 --> 0:11:41.937 was the same narrative in twenty twenty. It has been 0:11:41.977 --> 0:11:44.737 consistent where they say Hillary was going to win seniors 0:11:44.737 --> 0:11:46.337 and she didn't. They said Biden was going to win 0:11:46.377 --> 0:11:49.417 seniors and he didn't. Now they're saying Tom's gonna win seniors. 0:11:49.897 --> 0:11:52.497 I don't believe it. There's also a big divide in 0:11:52.537 --> 0:11:55.057 the state. They say that Iowa is a rust belt state. 0:11:55.097 --> 0:11:56.657 It is a difference. It is a split between a 0:11:56.697 --> 0:11:59.657 rust belt state and a prairie state. It is a 0:11:59.697 --> 0:12:02.057 lot like Kansas, but it's also a lot like Wisconsin. 0:12:02.177 --> 0:12:04.697 So where is the change coming from that? What kind 0:12:04.697 --> 0:12:07.497 of voter. Kansas should be closer to this election than 0:12:07.537 --> 0:12:10.777 it was four years ago, so should Nebraska. But it 0:12:10.817 --> 0:12:13.497 doesn't mean either one of the on a flip. So 0:12:13.537 --> 0:12:15.617 that's really where she sits there and says there from 0:12:16.097 --> 0:12:19.217 Mark Halpern asked her about my pull my tweet about it. 0:12:19.257 --> 0:12:20.697 I don't know if you saw that, and she didn't 0:12:20.737 --> 0:12:24.057 know what they are that you didn't see it. No, oh, 0:12:24.177 --> 0:12:27.817 Halprin says, look at you Ryan Gardusky's tweet on exit 0:12:27.817 --> 0:12:31.337 polls from twenty twenty to your numbers, your cross tabs 0:12:31.337 --> 0:12:33.497 in twenty twenty four, and she asked what the R 0:12:33.577 --> 0:12:40.097 and D stood for in the cross tabs. So really, yes, 0:12:40.257 --> 0:12:41.697 you can look at on video. I'll send it. I'll 0:12:41.697 --> 0:12:42.217 texit to you. 0:12:42.417 --> 0:12:45.817 Okay, Yeah, that sounds about right. All right, So we 0:12:45.817 --> 0:12:49.777 were going to do Michigan Wisconsin up next. We'll get 0:12:49.777 --> 0:12:51.737 to in just one second with Ryan Gardowsky here in 0:12:51.817 --> 0:12:56.377 National Populist newsletter. Look, the debt it's not going away. 0:12:56.417 --> 0:12:58.177 It's going to keep getting worse. I hate to break 0:12:58.217 --> 0:13:00.537 the bear or bad news. 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These 0:14:04.977 --> 0:14:07.897 are very tough states to estimate because they don't have 0:14:07.937 --> 0:14:13.137 part do not have party registration. The recorder for Wayne County, 0:14:13.137 --> 0:14:15.377 which is the home of Detroit, says that she believes 0:14:15.377 --> 0:14:19.017 there's going to break the twenty twenty number in Detroit. 0:14:19.057 --> 0:14:24.137 That turns to me that high considering people are leaving 0:14:24.177 --> 0:14:26.377 Detroit and the population is shrunk by six thousand. I 0:14:26.377 --> 0:14:27.897 find that hard to leave. But she knows the city 0:14:27.897 --> 0:14:31.537 better than I do, since I've never been there. That 0:14:31.577 --> 0:14:33.977 would make it very very hard. This would be into 0:14:34.017 --> 0:14:40.617 the whole Oakland County western Michigan, which they don't like. 0:14:40.657 --> 0:14:43.617 Trump vote would be able to sit there and stop 0:14:43.657 --> 0:14:46.977 any working class search from those places. We don't know 0:14:47.017 --> 0:14:49.377 what the numbers look like right now. With the Muslim voters, 0:14:50.017 --> 0:14:52.737 that will be very very interesting. Obviously, racheated to Leeb 0:14:52.857 --> 0:14:56.217 refuse to endorse Harris, as did many many, many people, 0:14:56.257 --> 0:14:58.817 including the mayor of Dearborn and the mayor of another 0:14:58.937 --> 0:15:04.537 Muslim town city, endorse Trump. That's all we know. In Wisconsin. 0:15:04.977 --> 0:15:07.697 The rural vote is on fire. It's about seventy percent 0:15:07.737 --> 0:15:10.297 already where it was in twenty twenty, the urban voe 0:15:10.297 --> 0:15:13.457 is only a fifty percent. That's a good thing for Trump. 0:15:14.137 --> 0:15:16.817 He's going to need to content con continue it. Wisconsin 0:15:16.857 --> 0:15:20.137 and Michigan also day of voting registration, which is a 0:15:20.137 --> 0:15:22.937 little problematic, so that turnout could be much higher because 0:15:22.977 --> 0:15:25.857 new people could be registering. That was that whole conspiracy 0:15:26.057 --> 0:15:28.017 that you heard on the internet from twenty twenty, was like, oh, 0:15:28.057 --> 0:15:30.497 there's more votes than there were people. People can vote 0:15:30.537 --> 0:15:32.177 and register the day of. You don't have to look 0:15:32.177 --> 0:15:35.217 at past voting registrations. So it makes it a little 0:15:35.217 --> 0:15:37.617 harder and a little more problematic to really estimate where 0:15:37.617 --> 0:15:38.817 Wisconsin and Michigan are. 0:15:39.417 --> 0:15:41.097 We're going to really have some put with Ryan. Now, 0:15:41.137 --> 0:15:45.217 all right, Ryan, gun to the head Pennsylvania. Who wins, 0:15:45.737 --> 0:15:46.777 Kamala or Trump? 0:15:48.857 --> 0:15:54.017 I I hate these pulp questions. I think Trump's gonna win. 0:15:54.137 --> 0:15:55.937 I think Trump's gonna win because I think the senior 0:15:55.937 --> 0:15:58.497 citizen numbers are all wrong. And I've been I bed. 0:15:58.577 --> 0:16:01.337 This is my this is my drum. I've been being Are. 0:16:01.217 --> 0:16:03.257 You saying he's gonna win Pennsylvania or he's just gonna 0:16:03.257 --> 0:16:05.377 win the whole thing, including pennsylvani He's gonna win. 0:16:05.417 --> 0:16:09.377 He's gonna win Pennsylvania because the black vot's not coming out, 0:16:10.137 --> 0:16:13.457 minorities aren't coming out, and senior citizens are more Republican 0:16:13.457 --> 0:16:16.857 than Pulsar. That's my estimation. Those are That's exactly That's 0:16:16.897 --> 0:16:18.777 the only reason I think that he has a chance 0:16:18.817 --> 0:16:21.417 to win. If those things fall apart, then he will 0:16:21.457 --> 0:16:23.457 lose and comm will be our forty seventh president. But 0:16:23.497 --> 0:16:25.897 that is my estimation. I think those three things are happening. 0:16:25.897 --> 0:16:27.937 I don't think the blackmail votes excited for her. I 0:16:27.937 --> 0:16:30.137 don't think Latinos are especially cited for her. And I 0:16:30.177 --> 0:16:32.697 don't think that the uh, the senior citizen vote is 0:16:32.857 --> 0:16:35.017 nearly as blue as people think it is. 0:16:35.097 --> 0:16:38.657 Wait, what's the uh what's the Gurdusky fallback plan? If 0:16:38.737 --> 0:16:41.857 Kamala wins? Are we talking like Buenos Aires going a 0:16:41.857 --> 0:16:44.777 little more rural outer Mongolia? Like where are you going? 0:16:47.217 --> 0:16:49.217 You know what? I don't know. You just got to 0:16:49.257 --> 0:16:52.137 sit there and stay listen. The greatest irony is and 0:16:52.177 --> 0:16:53.817 I've said this, I think I said this on your show, 0:16:53.897 --> 0:16:57.177 is that the if the if the census got it 0:16:57.257 --> 0:17:00.057 right and didn't allocate three extra electoral College votes to 0:17:00.977 --> 0:17:03.817 Minnesota Colorado and Rhode Island, Texas would have got two 0:17:03.817 --> 0:17:06.657 and Florida would have got one, and we wouldn't have 0:17:06.657 --> 0:17:09.337 needed any of the rost belt states. If this coalition 0:17:09.417 --> 0:17:11.577 is able to hold together, if North Carolina is able 0:17:11.617 --> 0:17:14.817 to stay Republican, George is able to stay Republican, this 0:17:14.937 --> 0:17:17.457 may be the I mean twenty twenty eight, but after 0:17:17.497 --> 0:17:19.457 that it may be a very long time before they 0:17:19.497 --> 0:17:22.657 do need the rost belt again. I would just probably 0:17:22.697 --> 0:17:25.417 go to you know, the problem is actually you people, 0:17:25.537 --> 0:17:27.537 everyone who went to Florida, some of you should have 0:17:27.577 --> 0:17:30.377 sat there in state, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Actually, 0:17:30.457 --> 0:17:33.657 I'll just blame all the new Floridian Republicans have been 0:17:33.977 --> 0:17:34.697 fleeing the state. 0:17:34.737 --> 0:17:37.857 Cond we did we concentrate too much in Florida? Is 0:17:37.857 --> 0:17:40.017 that really what's Yeah? 0:17:40.217 --> 0:17:43.217 Yeah, there is a net loss of Republicans overall from 0:17:43.297 --> 0:17:45.337 the Midwest from people who moved to Florida. They just 0:17:45.457 --> 0:17:49.097 moved so heavily to Florida that it caused a big 0:17:49.137 --> 0:17:51.537 erosion of Trump voters. But I mean, I. 0:17:51.537 --> 0:17:53.057 Think Trump's going to win Florida by it. But I 0:17:53.097 --> 0:17:54.897 think Trump's gonna win Florida by ten points or more 0:17:54.937 --> 0:17:56.097 by the way. Is that crazy to you? 0:17:57.497 --> 0:17:59.137 It's a little high, but I wouldn't be surprised one 0:17:59.217 --> 0:18:01.737 by six or seven. Okay, maybe he won by ten. 0:18:01.777 --> 0:18:04.057 I mean it's not impossible. I mean Florida is a 0:18:04.057 --> 0:18:06.657 brand new country. Florida is a new It is a 0:18:06.697 --> 0:18:09.017 new day in Florida. 0:18:09.857 --> 0:18:11.217 I'll want to push you on because the great thing 0:18:11.337 --> 0:18:12.817 is what people can listen to this and then the 0:18:12.817 --> 0:18:14.497 election will happen, and then we can just play out 0:18:14.537 --> 0:18:17.177 your clips where you nail it. I want some outlier 0:18:17.217 --> 0:18:19.977 predictions from you. Any Senate race, any house race, any 0:18:19.977 --> 0:18:22.297 particular state. Right, so just a few random I'll give 0:18:22.297 --> 0:18:24.897 you a minute to think about it. You know, is 0:18:24.937 --> 0:18:26.977 Carrie Lake gonna pull it out last minute in Arizona? 0:18:27.217 --> 0:18:29.737 Is New Hampshire actually in play? For no, no, don't don't 0:18:29.777 --> 0:18:31.337 answer it. Now. We're going to go to a brick, 0:18:31.377 --> 0:18:34.617 hold on a second, hold on a second look. You 0:18:34.617 --> 0:18:36.657 want to get better athooting without spending money on AMMO 0:18:36.737 --> 0:18:38.737 or time at the range, get yourself a mantis X, 0:18:38.777 --> 0:18:42.337 My friends. The mantis X training system ninety four percent 0:18:42.337 --> 0:18:45.137 of shooters improved in twenty minutes of using it. Mantis 0:18:45.257 --> 0:18:47.097 X is an at home training system. Use it with 0:18:47.137 --> 0:18:49.697 your gun to your drive fire practice pistol or long gun, 0:18:49.737 --> 0:18:52.817 your rifle. 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All right now, now I 0:19:25.297 --> 0:19:27.617 want your I'm not asking you to make a prediction, 0:19:27.897 --> 0:19:30.457 per se, Like, I'm not asking you to say this 0:19:30.577 --> 0:19:33.017 will happen, But what are some things that you think 0:19:33.057 --> 0:19:36.897 have a serious possibility of of happening? Hung Cow in 0:19:37.017 --> 0:19:39.417 Virginia for Senate, Like, is there anybody that's in the 0:19:39.457 --> 0:19:43.577 mix that you think could surprise people tomorrow State House 0:19:43.737 --> 0:19:44.257 or Senate? 0:19:45.337 --> 0:19:48.377 And Nevada they're counting on a huge fourth of Clark 0:19:48.377 --> 0:19:51.337 County that hasn't shown up. To show up. I'm not 0:19:51.377 --> 0:19:53.017 sure if it will show up. It's a lot of 0:19:53.017 --> 0:19:55.497 hopes are living in Clark County. If it doesn't show up, 0:19:55.537 --> 0:19:57.937 I think that there's a drill chance that one of 0:19:57.977 --> 0:20:00.977 the House seats there in the Vegas area will flip, 0:20:01.017 --> 0:20:03.257 and possibly the Senate seat, and that would be a surprise. 0:20:04.417 --> 0:20:06.337 The way you think Sam Brown, You think Sam Brown 0:20:06.337 --> 0:20:07.537 can win in Nevada. 0:20:08.497 --> 0:20:10.057 I think it would be cool. I mean, I think 0:20:10.097 --> 0:20:12.257 that he's got a decent chance just because I mean, 0:20:12.257 --> 0:20:15.137 they're literally banking all their hopes on these mail in 0:20:15.217 --> 0:20:17.537 bells that haven't landed yet. And I don't know what 0:20:17.577 --> 0:20:19.577