Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2: Hey, guys, welcome to the Buck Brief Pre election edition.
Speaker 2: Within about twenty four hours or so of you listening
Speaker 2: to your watching this podcast, we'll actually have election results
Speaker 2: in some of the states. So yeah, that's where we are. Now,
Speaker 2: let's just take a dive into it with our friend
Speaker 2: Ryan Gerdusky, National Populist Newsletter is his on substack. He
Speaker 2: is the conquistador of CNN, and he joins us now
Speaker 2: he chokes us.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: That seemed to work. I feel if that goes Yeah,
Speaker 2: I like that, you know what I mean, You know
Speaker 2: what I'm saying. So, okay, tell me this Trump's gonna
Speaker 2: win this thing. What do we know from the early vote?
Speaker 2: I mean, give me the top line on what really matters.
Speaker 2: Early votes are in. What do we know for sure
Speaker 2: as we talk right now?
Speaker 1: So it looks very so unless something radical changes on
Speaker 1: election day, and it could because I don't like making
Speaker 1: certain predictions. I learned my lesson in twenty two. If
Speaker 1: something doesn't change, the black vote is down substantially and
Speaker 1: for every one black voter who doesn't show up, Democrats
Speaker 1: need like one point five to to college educated white
Speaker 1: voters to make up for them. Depending on the state,
Speaker 1: they need more, like in Georgia they would need like
Speaker 1: five basically to show up. Because Republicans win the college
Speaker 1: is Acada white vote in Georgia. That means a lot.
Speaker 1: In Georgia right now compared to twenty twenty, the black
Speaker 1: vote is down over one hundred thousand votes. It's a
Speaker 1: lot of votes to have to make up, and they
Speaker 1: are typically not election day voters, they are typically early voters.
Speaker 1: In North Carolina, it is down substantially. In Ohio. I
Speaker 1: just did these members today for a candidate in Ohio.
Speaker 1: The three biggest blue counties Hoga, Franklin, and whatever one
Speaker 1: is in the middle.
Speaker 2: I forget them.
Speaker 1: But those three counties in twenty twenty were twenty eight
Speaker 1: point five percent of all early voters. They're currently twenty
Speaker 1: four point seventy five percent of all early early voters.
Speaker 1: The rurals almost everywhere are on fire with huge turnout numbers.
Speaker 1: Those are all good things for Trump, bad things for Trump.
Speaker 1: College educated white voters are almost certainly voting for her
Speaker 1: in big numbers possibly bigger than twenty twenty, and she
Speaker 1: will win a majority of every minority group that will
Speaker 1: also work for her, and the women vote is very,
Speaker 1: very large. Those things are working for her. Election day
Speaker 1: bat will matter tremendously and it will just have to
Speaker 1: wait and see who is going to show up and
Speaker 1: if Republicans have the momentum to show up on election day?
Speaker 2: Is it fair to say that Trump is in a
Speaker 2: better position twenty four hours before states are calling the
Speaker 2: elections for one side or the other than he was
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen.
Speaker 1: Oh. Absolutely, In twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, everyone was
Speaker 1: like on the Titanic playing the violin. No one in
Speaker 1: his inner circle thought he could win. In sixteen maybe
Speaker 1: like maybe, like Steve Bennaditt, but most people didn't. And
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, most people thought it was over. I
Speaker 1: will say in twenty twenty, I thought that it was
Speaker 1: going He was not going to win reelection. So it's
Speaker 1: a much different game this time around. It's very very close.
Speaker 1: Democrats are banking on a huge support of white voters
Speaker 1: for kamalaw This is a group that they've had major
Speaker 1: polling errors within the past that I've said about repeatedly,
Speaker 1: and if the black vote is down, there is not
Speaker 1: enough college educato whites to get her out of that.
Speaker 1: So that is why she spent her entire day today
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh and Philly. That is why Democrats are all
Speaker 1: over the South right now, that is why they went
Speaker 1: to sit there while Obama said to black man, you
Speaker 1: have to go vote or otherwise you're patronizing tours blackack women.
Speaker 1: They're very worried. The black mail vote is down substantially.
Speaker 1: It's the rural black vote is way down. The urban
Speaker 1: black vote is slightly down.
Speaker 2: Now is it the the black vote overall very much
Speaker 2: down or is it disproportionately within the black vote men,
Speaker 2: black men who are not coming out for Kama. Do
Speaker 2: we know that yet?
Speaker 1: Yeah, the black mail vote is way down. The black
Speaker 1: overall vote is down because of the black mail vote.
Speaker 1: Because the black mail vote is so far down, it
Speaker 1: is bringing the overall black vote down. And these are
Speaker 1: people Typically election days in Georgia, for example, and North
Speaker 1: Carolina are whiter and more Republican than early voting. So
Speaker 1: the fact that that is the history. Now, of course,
Speaker 1: strikes can be broken things can change. But everyone who
Speaker 1: has been watching these for a long time estimate that
Speaker 1: the number of the percentage of black vote is going
Speaker 1: to go down post election day. So if we wake
Speaker 1: up on you know, tomorrow morning and there is seventeen
Speaker 1: lock long lines in Atlanta and in Philadelphia, that's very
Speaker 1: good for Harris. If there are not, she's going to
Speaker 1: need an immense, immense turnout from white college educated voters
Speaker 1: to make up that difference.
Speaker 2: All right, I want to say we're going to get
Speaker 2: into Pennsylvania next, and then I want your Michigan, Wisconsin,
Speaker 2: and we'll say sort of, you know, lightning round on
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Speaker 2: All right, Ryan, Pennsylvania, the good, the bad, the ugly,
Speaker 2: twenty four hours out from D day here on this election?
Speaker 2: What can you tell us? So?
Speaker 1: In Pennsylvania, Republicans make up about thirty four percent of
Speaker 1: all early absentees return. Democrats are about fifty six percent.
Speaker 1: I believe fifty six and a half percent. Democrats are
Speaker 1: down about seven hundred thousand votes from their twenty twenty number.
Speaker 1: Republicans are down about thirty thousand votes from their twenty
Speaker 1: twenty number, a few more will come in. I guess
Speaker 1: I'm you have. You have up to election day to
Speaker 1: mail your vote or to just hand it in at
Speaker 1: the polling site, So I imagine they're going to hit
Speaker 1: their twenty twenty number. What is an interesting fact is
Speaker 1: that for Republicans, their best counties are in the northeast
Speaker 1: part of the state, which have a huge amount of
Speaker 1: New Yorkers who fled there during COVID, and in rural
Speaker 1: western Pennsylvania, where they have surpassed their twenty twenty numbers
Speaker 1: in almost every county outside of Allegheny, the home of Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: and Erie, which is another city. What Democrats. What is
Speaker 1: interesting about Democrats is democrats best counties are Tioga County,
Speaker 1: Potter County, Bradford County, Adams County. Now that may not
Speaker 1: mean anything to you, but those are all mega Trump counties.
Speaker 1: Those are all seventy to eighty percent Trump counties. What
Speaker 1: that sits there and says to me, and the only
Speaker 1: way to get seventy or eighty percent in those kinds
Speaker 1: of counties because you get ancestral Democrats to vote Republican
Speaker 1: because there's not enough Republicans to make up eighty percent
Speaker 1: of the vote. What that says to me is conservative
Speaker 1: Democrats are as eager to vote for Trump as conservative Republicans.
Speaker 1: That's a very good sign for them. On the other side,
Speaker 1: there is a lot of lower propensity Democrats who have
Speaker 1: already voted the Republican lower pensity. I remember, it's not
Speaker 1: traditional early ballot state, early voting state, because they don't
Speaker 1: do early ballots. They sit there and they have to
Speaker 1: mail them as a whole bit to do. And they
Speaker 1: have a lot in Philadelphia. They could still sit there
Speaker 1: and get so that's the good thing for Democrats. There's
Speaker 1: a lot more Philadelphia, there's a lot in the in
Speaker 1: the Coller counties of Philadelphia. For the Republicans though, is
Speaker 1: that they're not playing games. In twenty twenty, Republicans led
Speaker 1: in eight counties of the sixty seven in Pennsylvania. They
Speaker 1: currently lead in forty today, mostly rural, mostly small. But
Speaker 1: they're not playing games. They're actually showed up and voted early,
Speaker 1: which is a very very big deal. I know.
Speaker 2: I said that we would do Pennsylvania and then moved
Speaker 2: to Michigan, Wisconsin, but actually wild card the Iowa Seltzer
Speaker 2: poll that Democrats were doing backflips over with the all
Speaker 2: their excitement over the weekend. You know you're the pole guy, right,
Speaker 2: I don't know what I am. I'm not the pole guy.
Speaker 2: I'm the other stuff guy. But I can sit here
Speaker 2: and say that if Kamala Harris wins Iowa, she's winning
Speaker 2: everything that's even vaguely close, right, I mean Donald Trump
Speaker 2: didn't even Iowa by eight and twenty twenty, So why she's.
Speaker 1: Winning iowash Yeah, if she's winning Iowa, she's winning Ohio,
Speaker 1: in Florida, That's.
Speaker 2: What I mean. Like, it seems like that's completely insane.
Speaker 2: So what I don't just want to dismiss it as oh,
Speaker 2: it's you know, propaganda or whatever. People say. She's a
Speaker 2: decent pulster you pointed out I saw on Twitter. You know,
Speaker 2: she's been wrong big time a bunch of times too, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, as many polsters have. But what is she
Speaker 2: getting wrong? Like I want to learn from the error here,
Speaker 2: Like what is she missampling because maybe that's applying elsewhere,
Speaker 2: maybe it tells us something.
Speaker 1: So and she has been right in the last three
Speaker 1: presidential elections to like the point, and she's been right
Speaker 1: on a lot of US Senate elections. She's wrong almost
Speaker 1: every primary. I mean regularly every primary. But she doesn't
Speaker 1: weigh pass voter activity or partisan membership right. She doesn't
Speaker 1: weigh Republican Democrat when in twenty twenty the state was
Speaker 1: a point six percent Republican. Today it is six percent Republican.
Speaker 1: Every county has moved to the right. What she sat
Speaker 1: there and said is that the change for Kamala is
Speaker 1: coming out of two major groups senior citizen white women.
Speaker 1: Because remember in Iowa, almost every senior citizen is a
Speaker 1: white woman, Senior citizen white women, and senior citizen white men.
Speaker 1: She said, white men over sixty five moved thirty points
Speaker 1: to the left from twenty twenty, senior citism women with
Speaker 1: twenty nine points to the left. That's the entire thing.
Speaker 1: Her poll says that senior citizen women, only one in
Speaker 1: four white women over sixty five is voting for Trump
Speaker 1: in Iowa, and that only half of men white men
Speaker 1: are voting for Trump over sixty five. That seems very, very,
Speaker 1: very illogical. She also hays almost very little to no
Speaker 1: movement among independence So this would require Kamala to win
Speaker 1: about twenty to twenty five percent of senior citizen Republicans
Speaker 1: call me skeptical, but I don't think every Fox newsviewer
Speaker 1: who watches Sean Hannay become a resist live overnight. I
Speaker 1: think that there was a waiting issue. What a lot
Speaker 1: of people are sitting there and saying is that this
Speaker 1: is a sign that there's real movement among seniors towards Kamaal.
Speaker 1: This is proof of it, and maybe they're right. This
Speaker 1: is the narrative I have been extraordinarily skeptical of because
Speaker 1: it was the same narrative in twenty sixteen, and it
Speaker 1: was the same narrative in twenty twenty. It has been
Speaker 1: consistent where they say Hillary was going to win seniors
Speaker 1: and she didn't. They said Biden was going to win
Speaker 1: seniors and he didn't. Now they're saying Tom's gonna win seniors.
Speaker 1: I don't believe it. There's also a big divide in
Speaker 1: the state. They say that Iowa is a rust belt state.
Speaker 1: It is a difference. It is a split between a
Speaker 1: rust belt state and a prairie state. It is a
Speaker 1: lot like Kansas, but it's also a lot like Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: So where is the change coming from that? What kind
Speaker 1: of voter. Kansas should be closer to this election than
Speaker 1: it was four years ago, so should Nebraska. But it
Speaker 1: doesn't mean either one of the on a flip. So
Speaker 1: that's really where she sits there and says there from
Speaker 1: Mark Halpern asked her about my pull my tweet about it.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw that, and she didn't
Speaker 1: know what they are that you didn't see it. No, oh,
Speaker 1: Halprin says, look at you Ryan Gardusky's tweet on exit
Speaker 1: polls from twenty twenty to your numbers, your cross tabs
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, and she asked what the R
Speaker 1: and D stood for in the cross tabs. So really, yes,
Speaker 1: you can look at on video. I'll send it. I'll
Speaker 1: texit to you.
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, that sounds about right. All right, So we
Speaker 2: were going to do Michigan Wisconsin up next. We'll get
Speaker 2: to in just one second with Ryan Gardowsky here in
Speaker 2: National Populist newsletter. Look, the debt it's not going away.
Speaker 2: It's going to keep getting worse. I hate to break
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Speaker 2: eight ninety eight ninety eight. All right, Ryan Michigan, what
Speaker 2: do we know so far so.
Speaker 1: Michigan does not have party registration either, as Wisconsin. These
Speaker 1: are very tough states to estimate because they don't have
Speaker 1: part do not have party registration. The recorder for Wayne County,
Speaker 1: which is the home of Detroit, says that she believes
Speaker 1: there's going to break the twenty twenty number in Detroit.
Speaker 1: That turns to me that high considering people are leaving
Speaker 1: Detroit and the population is shrunk by six thousand. I
Speaker 1: find that hard to leave. But she knows the city
Speaker 1: better than I do, since I've never been there. That
Speaker 1: would make it very very hard. This would be into
Speaker 1: the whole Oakland County western Michigan, which they don't like.
Speaker 1: Trump vote would be able to sit there and stop
Speaker 1: any working class search from those places. We don't know
Speaker 1: what the numbers look like right now. With the Muslim voters,
Speaker 1: that will be very very interesting. Obviously, racheated to Leeb
Speaker 1: refuse to endorse Harris, as did many many, many people,
Speaker 1: including the mayor of Dearborn and the mayor of another
Speaker 1: Muslim town city, endorse Trump. That's all we know. In Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: The rural vote is on fire. It's about seventy percent
Speaker 1: already where it was in twenty twenty, the urban voe
Speaker 1: is only a fifty percent. That's a good thing for Trump.
Speaker 1: He's going to need to content con continue it. Wisconsin
Speaker 1: and Michigan also day of voting registration, which is a
Speaker 1: little problematic, so that turnout could be much higher because
Speaker 1: new people could be registering. That was that whole conspiracy
Speaker 1: that you heard on the internet from twenty twenty, was like, oh,
Speaker 1: there's more votes than there were people. People can vote
Speaker 1: and register the day of. You don't have to look
Speaker 1: at past voting registrations. So it makes it a little
Speaker 1: harder and a little more problematic to really estimate where
Speaker 1: Wisconsin and Michigan are.
Speaker 2: We're going to really have some put with Ryan. Now,
Speaker 2: all right, Ryan, gun to the head Pennsylvania. Who wins,
Speaker 2: Kamala or Trump?
Speaker 1: I I hate these pulp questions. I think Trump's gonna win.
Speaker 1: I think Trump's gonna win because I think the senior
Speaker 1: citizen numbers are all wrong. And I've been I bed.
Speaker 1: This is my this is my drum. I've been being Are.
Speaker 2: You saying he's gonna win Pennsylvania or he's just gonna
Speaker 2: win the whole thing, including pennsylvani He's gonna win.
Speaker 1: He's gonna win Pennsylvania because the black vot's not coming out,
Speaker 1: minorities aren't coming out, and senior citizens are more Republican
Speaker 1: than Pulsar. That's my estimation. Those are That's exactly That's
Speaker 1: the only reason I think that he has a chance
Speaker 1: to win. If those things fall apart, then he will
Speaker 1: lose and comm will be our forty seventh president. But
Speaker 1: that is my estimation. I think those three things are happening.
Speaker 1: I don't think the blackmail votes excited for her. I
Speaker 1: don't think Latinos are especially cited for her. And I
Speaker 1: don't think that the uh, the senior citizen vote is
Speaker 1: nearly as blue as people think it is.
Speaker 2: Wait, what's the uh what's the Gurdusky fallback plan? If
Speaker 2: Kamala wins? Are we talking like Buenos Aires going a
Speaker 2: little more rural outer Mongolia? Like where are you going?
Speaker 1: You know what? I don't know. You just got to
Speaker 1: sit there and stay listen. The greatest irony is and
Speaker 1: I've said this, I think I said this on your show,
Speaker 1: is that the if the if the census got it
Speaker 1: right and didn't allocate three extra electoral College votes to
Speaker 1: Minnesota Colorado and Rhode Island, Texas would have got two
Speaker 1: and Florida would have got one, and we wouldn't have
Speaker 1: needed any of the rost belt states. If this coalition
Speaker 1: is able to hold together, if North Carolina is able
Speaker 1: to stay Republican, George is able to stay Republican, this
Speaker 1: may be the I mean twenty twenty eight, but after
Speaker 1: that it may be a very long time before they
Speaker 1: do need the rost belt again. I would just probably
Speaker 1: go to you know, the problem is actually you people,
Speaker 1: everyone who went to Florida, some of you should have
Speaker 1: sat there in state, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Actually,
Speaker 1: I'll just blame all the new Floridian Republicans have been
Speaker 1: fleeing the state.
Speaker 2: Cond we did we concentrate too much in Florida? Is
Speaker 2: that really what's Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah, there is a net loss of Republicans overall from
Speaker 1: the Midwest from people who moved to Florida. They just
Speaker 1: moved so heavily to Florida that it caused a big
Speaker 1: erosion of Trump voters. But I mean, I.
Speaker 2: Think Trump's going to win Florida by it. But I
Speaker 2: think Trump's gonna win Florida by ten points or more
Speaker 2: by the way. Is that crazy to you?
Speaker 1: It's a little high, but I wouldn't be surprised one
Speaker 1: by six or seven. Okay, maybe he won by ten.
Speaker 1: I mean it's not impossible. I mean Florida is a
Speaker 1: brand new country. Florida is a new It is a
Speaker 1: new day in Florida.
Speaker 2: I'll want to push you on because the great thing
Speaker 2: is what people can listen to this and then the
Speaker 2: election will happen, and then we can just play out
Speaker 2: your clips where you nail it. I want some outlier
Speaker 2: predictions from you. Any Senate race, any house race, any
Speaker 2: particular state. Right, so just a few random I'll give
Speaker 2: you a minute to think about it. You know, is
Speaker 2: Carrie Lake gonna pull it out last minute in Arizona?
Speaker 2: Is New Hampshire actually in play? For no, no, don't don't
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Speaker 2: want your I'm not asking you to make a prediction,
Speaker 2: per se, Like, I'm not asking you to say this
Speaker 2: will happen, But what are some things that you think
Speaker 2: have a serious possibility of of happening? Hung Cow in
Speaker 2: Virginia for Senate, Like, is there anybody that's in the
Speaker 2: mix that you think could surprise people tomorrow State House
Speaker 2: or Senate?
Speaker 1: And Nevada they're counting on a huge fourth of Clark
Speaker 1: County that hasn't shown up. To show up. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure if it will show up. It's a lot of
Speaker 1: hopes are living in Clark County. If it doesn't show up,
Speaker 1: I think that there's a drill chance that one of
Speaker 1: the House seats there in the Vegas area will flip,
Speaker 1: and possibly the Senate seat, and that would be a surprise.
Speaker 2: The way you think Sam Brown, You think Sam Brown
Speaker 2: can win in Nevada.
Speaker 1: I think it would be cool. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: that he's got a decent chance just because I mean,
Speaker 1: they're literally banking all their hopes on these mail in
Speaker 1: bells that haven't landed yet. And I don't know what
Speaker 1: they're waiting for for these mail in ballots to land.
Speaker 1: Maybe they will be there, but they're hoping for thirty
Speaker 1: thousand more Democratic ballots to sit there income that haven't
Speaker 1: come so far.
Speaker 2: Who has a better shot? Who has a better shot
Speaker 2: right now? In your mind? See this is so fun.
Speaker 2: You just keep throwing stuff at Ryan. He's like stop, stop, Like, no,
Speaker 2: we have more McCormick or Hovedy. Who do you think
Speaker 2: is better positioned to win right now in their specific race?
Speaker 2: McCormick and Pennsylvania For everyone at home, Huvedy in Wisconsin,
Speaker 2: McCormick really.
Speaker 1: Because Hovedy has two outlier right wing candidates. There's a
Speaker 1: MAGA Party candidate that the Democrats launch and then there's
Speaker 1: a libertarian, so they'll split are off at lease of
Speaker 1: you know, maybe a point between the two of them.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, they ran little spoiler candidates there. Nobody's
Speaker 2: even talking about that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in Wisconsin they did. So he's got to overcome
Speaker 1: really three opponents. McCormick only has one.
Speaker 2: So McCormick's in a better shot with that one. Is
Speaker 2: New Hampshire any chance at all? Or is that just
Speaker 2: crazy talk for Trump?
Speaker 1: It's not crazy talk, but it's hard. It is a
Speaker 1: hard lift. I don't expect it to happen. But if
Speaker 1: it wasn't happening, I will say this. They didn't send
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton there and and a bunch of other high
Speaker 1: Democratic surrogates to New Hampshire, and JD didn't go there
Speaker 1: just because for ships and giggles. Something's going on there.
Speaker 2: And Virginia in play or not really.
Speaker 1: No, no, not in play. It's probably gonna come within
Speaker 1: five points four points, so probably retract if it does.
Speaker 1: Virginia seven could flip. That would be the big if
Speaker 1: Virginia seven flip, that's the whole victory for all of
Speaker 1: all Virginias.
Speaker 2: So who's in that race.
Speaker 1: It's that spy guy who's it's his brother. I forget
Speaker 1: his name. Yeah, he's the Democrat and I forgot.
Speaker 2: He's running against a spec ops guy like he's running
Speaker 2: against like the American badass on the Republican side. It
Speaker 2: isn't so funny. It's like even when we have military
Speaker 2: versus military, the Republican military guy, you know, looks like
Speaker 2: Chuck Norris's twin brother, and the Democrat military guy looks
Speaker 2: like he just finished a pie eating contest. I'm just
Speaker 2: saying this is this is the truth, you know, Like
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm just I just call it like
Speaker 2: I see it. So, yeah, that's true. It is. It
Speaker 2: is what it is. Do you have anything else? Do
Speaker 2: any other wisdom you want to share with everybody? You're
Speaker 2: all they're all going to listen before the big day.
Speaker 1: So if you know an older person who can't get around, get.
Speaker 2: Them to vote.
Speaker 1: Bring them to vote. That's their best thing. You want
Speaker 1: to sit there, I mean, listen watching television, listen to
Speaker 1: the radio is great, but it's not going to change election.
Speaker 1: Find an old person who lives in your neighborhood and
Speaker 1: dragg him out to go vote and give him a ride,
Speaker 1: because that's that's important. And also look for the weather reports.
Speaker 1: I wonder what states are going to have rain. This
Speaker 1: rain does change election turnouts.
Speaker 2: It's kind of funny, you never think about that, but
Speaker 2: it certainly does. Ryan Gridotsky, everybody subscribe to the National
Speaker 2: Populist newsletter. My friend, we'll be talking after the election
Speaker 2: for sure. Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 1: Absolutely fine,