1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good. 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: All right. Here we go. 3 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: Throwing in so we're saying it's a cash stop. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 3: That's all we see. 5 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 4: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to winning. 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 4: That's incredible. 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. 8 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 4: I like to make money. 9 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 3: All right. This is the ultimate KABA want to. 10 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 4: And we are hound away. 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 5: Hello and welcome to another episode of strong Side Fridays. 12 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 5: I'm your host, Brandon Anderson here with Raheem Palmer as 13 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 5: always getting you ready for some week fifteen action. At 14 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,959 Speaker 5: least we think there's gonna be some action this weekend. 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 5: It is a mess right now. We've got like half 16 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 5: of the NFL. Feels like we're missing COVID guys up 17 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 5: and down the roster. Rahiem, what are we doing out here? 18 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 5: The Lions are moving all over the place. We're getting 19 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 5: injury news and COVID news like by the minute. What 20 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 5: do you think about this week right now? 21 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 1: I mean it's kind of a disaster, but I think 22 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: it's an example of why you need to sit by 23 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: the sports Insights or the Don Best screen and you 24 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: need to be watching these line movements as much as 25 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: you can and trying to get ahead of it. Like 26 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: if you're sitting here and you get the news, there's 27 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: some slower moving books out here where you can grab 28 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: the number and you don't even have to handicap these games, 29 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: you're just playing against the line movement. You could have 30 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: done that with the Raiders. You could have done that 31 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: with the Eagles. Twice this week, the Eagles were two 32 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. They got up to six, 33 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: six and a half, seven, and you could have got 34 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: that line before it got to to seven. Today we 35 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: saw even more line movement as the Washington football team 36 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: has even more players sitting now. So always watch the 37 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: Sports Insight don best screen. You want to know where 38 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 1: all the numbers are moving. That's how you approach this 39 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: COVID thing. And then I think sometimes you have to 40 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: we have to sit there and infer things based on 41 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: what you're seeing throughout the media. Sometimes you can see, 42 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: are this team looks like they're having an outbreak, let 43 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: me jump on in. 44 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 4: So that's how I'm approaching Yeah, I think too. 45 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 5: You've mentioned this before, but with the injuries as well, 46 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 5: Like when you see a team sign somebody or they 47 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 5: add them to the active roster, like Baltimore brought in 48 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 5: a quarterback to the roster this week. Well, that's probably 49 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 5: not great news for Lamar Jackson. You know, like you 50 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 5: only are going out there to bring in another guy 51 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 5: in the room if you're a little worried about the 52 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 5: guys in the COVID or the protocol or you know, 53 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 5: your guy that's injured or that sort of thing. Yeah, 54 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 5: like you're saying kind of infer Accordingly, another thing too. 55 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 5: You've said this before, but the biggest advantage we have 56 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 5: as betters is you just don't have to play. You 57 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 5: can just not play a game if you're not feeling good, 58 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 5: if you can't get a read, if we just don't 59 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 5: know who's playing. The book's got to keep the lines up. 60 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 5: They gotta give us chances to play. They got to 61 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 5: post all the lines, all the alternates and every thing. 62 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 3: We don't have to play. 63 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 5: So if there's just a game or games that you 64 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 5: don't feel good about, or even this week in general 65 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 5: probably will be one of my lower bet weeks of 66 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 5: the season, just with all the question mark, so choose 67 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 5: wisely be careful. Even today as we're previewing games, you know, 68 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:18,959 Speaker 5: there are other big games we would like to talk 69 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 5: about Seahawks, Rams, Rams have a COVID thing, so we 70 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 5: know a lot who's playing there, Raiders, Browns on Saturday. 71 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 5: The Browns roster is a mess right now with COVID, Packers, Ravens. 72 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 5: We don't totally know about Lamar Jackson yet. So even 73 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 5: just some of the games we're talking about today, trying 74 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 5: to get the things we're surest about at this point. 75 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 5: But yeah, it's a mess with the COVID protocols. They'll 76 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 5: be safe out there with your bets. We'll get to 77 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 5: those games in a second. Of course. We'll hit our 78 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 5: Week fifteen best bets and our Week sixteen look ahead 79 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 5: at the end. 80 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 3: Don't forget that. 81 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 5: Odds, as always are from bet MGM, the official odds 82 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 5: provider of the Action Network podcast. So let's get down 83 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 5: to business and hit our first game of the week. 84 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 3: Let's get down. Let's get down to business. So let's 85 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 3: get down. Let's get down to business. Let's get down. 86 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 5: So Saturday night, I think it's the big game this week, 87 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 5: New England at Indianapolis. We've been excited for this one. 88 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 5: Saturday football is back. I know you like that. Saturday 89 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 5: college football is done for the year outside of Bowl games. 90 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 5: We get some NFL Saturdays coming up ahead. So Colts 91 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 5: right now are two and a half point favorites. I know, 92 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 5: ra him, you have the Colts on the look ahead, 93 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 5: am the hot red. I assume you're still on Indianapolis here. 94 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 4: I am not on Indianapolis. I'm actually gonna stay away 95 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 4: from this game. Look. 96 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 1: When I first looked at this matchup, I felt like 97 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: and pick them. I like the Indianapolis coach. They were 98 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 1: at home. But when I dug more into the numbers, 99 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: to me, New England's defense is different successful and they're 100 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: seven dv away on the ground, so they should be 101 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: able to slow down Jonathan Taylor a little bit. The 102 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: Patriots are fitted pressury, so Carson Wentz has struggled with 103 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: turnovers from time to time, and this is the type 104 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: of team that can force Carson Wentz to do something stupid. 105 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: There's no way I want to lay two and a 106 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: half for the Coats right now, especially when I look 107 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: at my model. My model actually makes this game. 108 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 4: A pick them. So what's your thoughts on you? 109 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, we know that I love my guy Carson Wentz, 110 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 5: but let's be honest, we don't even really need defenses 111 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 5: to force him into making mistakes. My man goes out 112 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 5: and finds the mistakes where he can. So that's definitely 113 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 5: a danger against an aggressive defense like New England. So 114 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 5: I guess I want to come back to this. So 115 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 5: part of the reason that I think that you're off 116 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 5: Indianapolis here is because this line has really moved in 117 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 5: a key way with two. 118 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 3: Teams coming off of bye week. 119 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 5: So unlike many of these other games, this is not 120 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 5: because of big injury news. These are pretty healthy teams 121 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 5: for the most part, nothing really to report here. 122 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 3: Drought of by a week. 123 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 5: They got the late by coming toward the playoff stretch here, 124 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 5: So I think this will open at Patriots minus two, 125 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 5: and then it flipped all the way across the zero 126 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 5: and is now at two and a half. I even 127 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 5: wondered if we might get to three. It was trending 128 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 5: a little bit that way. I'm still seeing some twos 129 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 5: two and a halfs. I don't know if we're gonna 130 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 5: get to the three there. I don't think the books 131 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 5: want that. But why do you think that the line 132 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 5: swung so much? Is this just everyone's betting on India 133 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 5: or is there something else happening. 134 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 4: I think we saw some professional money on Indy. 135 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: It's a must win game for them, because they lose 136 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: this game, they may find themselves out of the playoffs. 137 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 4: So I think that ask is something to do with it. 138 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,679 Speaker 1: And a lot of times you see when professional money 139 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: comes in sometimes the public hoals in with it. So yeah, 140 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,679 Speaker 1: it's not a surprise, but I think we've gone too far. Actually, 141 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: this line is actually coming back the opposite. Actually now 142 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 1: you're seeing it go from two and a half to 143 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 1: two now. 144 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 5: So yeah, So for me, the big key here and 145 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 5: the reason you and I talked about this game a 146 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 5: couple of times. We like Indanapolis early because of the 147 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 5: potential run game the way to beat New England. It's 148 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 5: not passing all over them. Their pass defense is especially elite. 149 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 5: The run defense is good, but if you've given the choice, 150 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 5: you definitely rather run on them. 151 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:05,479 Speaker 3: Not pass. 152 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 5: That's why I like Buffalo, or like New Ligan's Buffalo, 153 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 5: because that was They're going to take away the pass 154 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 5: and Buffalo couldn't really run. That's why we thought Indianapolis 155 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 5: might be the right matchup. But for me, as I 156 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 5: dug into the matchup, I also ended up baiting Indianapolis. 157 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 5: I actually like New England here, and here's here's the 158 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 5: reason why it's the Indianapolis run game. I'm not convinced 159 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 5: is going to have a big game here. So Colts 160 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 5: are number one in rushing EPA per play the expected 161 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 5: points added. They're doing more than the other team in 162 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 5: the NFL. We know that Jonathan Taylor getting the MVP hype. 163 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 5: You know he's he's running well. The line is healthy, 164 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 5: so they're doing great. Their run EPA is higher than 165 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 5: all but six other teams passing EPA. That's not supposed 166 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 5: to happen over the last six weeks, Like you're not 167 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 5: supposed to be that good at running the ball. Partly, 168 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 5: there's not a lot of teams passing super well right now, 169 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 5: so we know that. However, Patriots defense number one in 170 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 5: EPA over the last six week as well number two 171 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 5: DVU in the season. But they're almost as good against 172 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 5: the run if you dig into it. On the power rush, 173 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 5: that's where the Colts really love to get you, is 174 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 5: just power right up the middle. They're coming right at you. 175 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 5: Colts are number eight in power rush. Patriots defensive line 176 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 5: is number three on DVOA against the power, power rush 177 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 5: up the middle, they're good against the pass rush. The 178 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 5: Colts are better running to the right if you look 179 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 5: at the numbers. The Patriots defense is better defending the 180 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 5: run against the right. So there's a lot of strength 181 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 5: on strength sort of components here. The one thing that's 182 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 5: a big mismatch is the Colts are number one in 183 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 5: the NFL and DVA and open field blocking to get 184 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 5: out past that initial cut and they're big trouble. The 185 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 5: Patriots are twenty eighth against that, So that's not a 186 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 5: key area for them, not you know, tackling stopping those 187 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 5: big plays from happening. So that's the mismatch that Indianapolis 188 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 5: has here. I think Belichick knows that. So I expect 189 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 5: Belichick with the extra week to prepare, stack the box, 190 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 5: make sure that you're not letting them get to the 191 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 5: second level. And like you said, forced this game when 192 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 5: the Carson wentz his hands. And now if it's in 193 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 5: Carson's hands and not that run game, now you're not 194 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 5: feeling so good about India I think. 195 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I think you really summed it up. Well, 196 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 1: it's just tough to play it at this number. So 197 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: I think it is Patriots are passed. 198 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think to a couple of trends, just a note, 199 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 5: especially when the line is this close here and at 200 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 5: two or two and a half. To me, it looks 201 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 5: like a great teaser spot for the Patriots. I know 202 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 5: you love your your Stanford Wong teasers at this number, 203 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 5: especially with Belichick Belchick and toss ups. Twenty six eleven 204 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 5: and a one against the spread. That's seventy percent since 205 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 5: two thousand and three, Belchick as an underdog thirty fourteen 206 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 5: to two against the spread, sixty eight percent lifetime and 207 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 5: twenty five and twenty one straight up as a as 208 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 5: an underdog, and we know road underdogs this season, I've 209 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 5: been really good to seventy percent against the spread. So 210 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 5: just a lot of trends that at least tell you 211 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 5: to be careful of the Colts here. I know it's 212 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 5: a big spot for them. It's a big spot for 213 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 5: the Patriots too. They're the one seed. You know, both 214 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 5: teams want to win. So for me, I'm not gonna 215 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 5: stay away. I'm gonna play in New England. I feel pretty 216 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 5: good about this one. I think it's the better team. 217 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 5: Indianapolis is very good, but the Colts are the better team. 218 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 3: The the better. 219 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 5: Defense, and they got the better coach who just had 220 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 5: an extra week to prepare. So I like Patriots plus 221 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 5: two and a half. I like the tea's with them 222 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 5: if you prefer that way. Plus one twenty five in 223 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 5: the money line. I think those are all in play here. 224 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 5: It's a big game. 225 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 3: I'm excited to watch. 226 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 4: Actually, the plate I think that is in play is 227 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 4: that I. 228 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: Think the Patriots over team total twenty three and a half. 229 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: I think that could possibly hit because Indianapolis's run defense 230 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: isn't really dominant, So I mean, I think the Patriots 231 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: gonna be able to run the ball, and I think 232 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: this has some shootout potentially. I think we could see 233 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 1: a little bit of a higher scoring game. Did people 234 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: would think so? I actually like the little team total over, 235 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: but I think it's something that the Patriots can definitely hit. 236 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't mind that Mac Jones actually leads the 237 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 5: NFL and EPA and completion number expected the last six weeks, 238 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 5: and Inanapolis secondary has been beat up a lot of 239 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 5: times this year, So I don't mind that. I can 240 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 5: see the Patriots putting up some points in this one 241 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 5: and it turning into not a shootout per se. But 242 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 5: maybe a little bit more than we expected. Let's go 243 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 5: to Pittsburgh, So Titans at Steelers, and yet again, for 244 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 5: literally like the tenth or eleventh time this season, we've 245 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 5: got Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers as an underdog. 246 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 5: So I talked about this team a couple of times 247 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 5: already before we get into that. Here's my question for you, 248 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 5: Titans Steelers offense, defense, what do you think is the 249 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 5: strongest unit in this game? 250 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 3: For either side? 251 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: This is really tough because I mean, when you look 252 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: at all these units are pretty flawed. I'm going to 253 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: go with the Titans defense. Beyond the Steelers have been 254 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: given up chunks of yard is on the ground. You 255 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,680 Speaker 1: saw in the game against the Baltimore Rates. Baltsmore Raids 256 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 1: has struggled to run the ball all year long, and 257 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 1: they kind of got whatever they wanted on the ground. 258 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: And then when you looked at their game against the 259 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings, Dovin Cook went for two hundred yards. 260 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 4: It just was some of the holes that he was 261 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 4: running through, which is gigantic. 262 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: And I think that the Titans, they are able to 263 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: rush the quarterback at times, so I think they have 264 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: the strongest student run. Still, obviously, the Titans offense is 265 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,839 Speaker 1: taken a step back without Derek Henery, without a G. 266 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 3: Brown. 267 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's hard for me as it is for you, 268 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,599 Speaker 5: just because the answer is kind of just none of 269 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 5: the above, like really really nothing for two teams that 270 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 5: are in the playoff hunt the Titans are in the 271 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 5: one seed hunt. There's just really not a great unit 272 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 5: on either one of these. The Titans defense, I think 273 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 5: is at least average. They're fourteenth in DVA, so that's 274 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 5: the correct answer by DVa's standards, especially taking into account 275 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 5: strength to schedule, which is why we like to use DVA. 276 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 4: They're also eleven for EPA can play too, right. 277 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 5: They've been number two run defense in the last six 278 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 5: weeks by EPA, so that certainly that is a strength here. 279 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 5: Steelers run defense hair are real bolt really bad. The 280 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 5: whole defense has been bad. Like we just see the Steelers' 281 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 5: uniforms and think, oh, well, it's their defense has to 282 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 5: be at least fine, because like when in my life 283 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,599 Speaker 5: has the Steelers defense not been fine to good or 284 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 5: great like literally never just always the Steelers defense is good, 285 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 5: not good. Right now, they're thirty first by EPA. The 286 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 5: last six weeks, they're horrid Horde against the run. So 287 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 5: the problem is that the Titans can't run anymore. The 288 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 5: Titans are not really running the ball that well. Dante 289 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 5: Foreman Hilliard mcnichols's not getting the job done. So I 290 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 5: know the Titans last week got the shutout win was 291 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 5: twenty nothing against the Jaguars. 292 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 3: The Jaguars who literally. 293 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 5: Overnight pass midnight their time, fired their coach. That Titans 294 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 5: won the turnover battle four to nothing, had thirty seven 295 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 5: minutes of possession, and they averaged only three point eight 296 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 5: yards per play against the terrible Jaguars defense with the 297 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 5: ball all game long. 298 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 3: You could do much better than that. 299 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 5: Like, I'm not impressed by beating the Jaguars twenty to 300 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 5: nothing when you have everything in your favor and you 301 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 5: still can't do much their offense, Titans have average seventeen points. 302 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 3: A game the last four weeks. 303 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 5: They have scored twenty four in a month since the 304 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 5: week after Derrick Henry got hurt. So that leads me 305 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 5: to my next question, and the foreshadow answer is we 306 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 5: know that there's injuries in this game. We got TJ. 307 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 5: Lott and high Smith. Our question marks a bit limited 308 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 5: for Pittsburgh. That's big. Joe Hayden still is a question mark. 309 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 5: We know Tennessee's corners and receivers have been banged up. 310 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 5: Who do you think is the most important injury question 311 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 5: mark in this game for either team? 312 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 4: I think right now TJ. 313 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 3: Wat. 314 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: He rushes the quarterback and he's the game changer for 315 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: the Still. So if he's not playing, I don't know 316 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: how you bet the Stills at all. 317 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I agree, although I think that we probably 318 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 5: both agree that we expect him to play. You know, 319 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 5: just a tough guy like Wat is going to get 320 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 5: out there and at least try to give it a shot. 321 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 5: This isn't really a fair answer, I guess, per see, 322 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 5: it's not really a question mark. We know he's not playing, 323 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 5: But to me, this is a game that you miss 324 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 5: Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry against the way the Steelers run 325 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 5: defense is just a sieve right now. Derek Henry put 326 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 5: up like two hundred yards in this game like this, 327 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 5: The Titans would be a touchdown favor if Derek Henry 328 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 5: is playing, because he would have run all over this 329 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 5: awful run defense Without him, I don't know, I don't 330 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 5: know what the Titans offense is going to do. And 331 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 5: then I come back to all the Mike Tomlin trends. 332 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 5: This is why I like Pittsburgh here. So said the trends, 333 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 5: Let's do them again. Mike Tomlin as an underdog forty three, 334 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 5: twenty two and two against the spread, sixty six percent, 335 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 5: five and three This year underdog against the spread Week 336 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 5: five forward, Mike Tomlin's underdog status goes to thirty five 337 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 5: and thirteen against the spread, seventy two percent hit rate, 338 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 5: forty nine percent ROI and the money line even better 339 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 5: at home where Pittsburgh is this game, Mike Tomlin Steelers 340 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 5: thirteen three and two against the spread at home thirteen 341 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 5: and three. Like, that's a one seed team against the 342 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 5: spread as a home underdog eighty one percent they've won 343 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 5: the last five outright as a home underdog, and eighty 344 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 5: percent money line hit right as a home dog. So 345 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 5: I like Steelers at plus two and a half when 346 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 5: it came out. It hasn't really moved much, but I 347 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 5: noticed it's starting to inch that way. I don't think 348 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 5: the Steelers are going to be underdogs when this one 349 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 5: kicks off, So grab the Steelers plus two if you can. 350 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 5: Get it out there. Still take them up plus one. 351 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 5: I don't really need to play the money line here 352 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 5: because they're not getting too much better advantage there. 353 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 3: But I like Pittsburgh a lot here. 354 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it seems the market agrees with you, 355 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: and actually circle just once will pick them today. This 356 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: line is pretty much all over the place that the 357 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: Titans are one in certain places. I see twos in 358 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: the market. I can't argue with you. It's a close 359 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 1: matchup that can go either way. Much of this line, 360 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: it's influenced by the Steelers comeback against the Biking because 361 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: they were just getting completely dominated last week and you 362 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: have to wonder if they didn't come back and make 363 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: it a game in a fourth quarter on with this 364 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: line big so I think a lot of that somebody 365 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: has snatched away. Some of it is value from this line, 366 00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: so I'm staying away. 367 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 5: That's true. But we've seen that with the Steelers too. 368 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 5: We saw them get blown out by the Bengals. We 369 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 5: saw them get blown out most of the game against 370 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 5: the Vikings. But Pittsburgh just doesn't die, you know. They 371 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 5: come back and they show up again in the next 372 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 5: underdog spot. So I like them here. Also gonna throw 373 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 5: out Pittsburgh. At some books is fifteen to one in 374 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 5: the division. I just think that division is up for crabs, 375 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 5: like Baltimore is the favorite. Baltimore is in the lead, 376 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 5: but we don't know what Lamar Jackson's gonna give you 377 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 5: down the stretch. And Baltimore is a really rough schedule 378 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 5: playing Green Bay this week, They've got other tough games 379 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 5: up ahead. Cleveland has the COVID outbreak and hasn't been 380 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 5: reliable all year. Cincinnati Joe Burrow is injured. We're gonna 381 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 5: talk about them in a second. I don't have a 382 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 5: lot of faith in Cincinnati. I don't have much faith 383 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 5: in Pittsburgh either. I just think that they have a shot. 384 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 5: They're going to be in this especially. They got to 385 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 5: win this game, I think. But if they win this game. 386 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 3: They play at the Chiefs. 387 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 5: They probably don't win that one, but they can win 388 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 5: the division even losing against the Chiefs. Next week they 389 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 5: close out against the Browns and the Bengals. You're sorry, 390 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 5: the Browns and the Ravens. They can win those and 391 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 5: might even have a chance to control their destiny down 392 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 5: the path here. So I like that fifteen to one. 393 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 5: If you follow me on the app. You saw that 394 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 5: I actually put in a crazy division of parlay bet. 395 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 5: So some books right now are allowing you to parlay 396 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 5: division odds. I think that that is lunacy. There's four 397 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 5: weeks left. These are not independent events. Divisions odds have 398 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 5: to do with each other. So for example, we're talked 399 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 5: about the Colts Patriots. We're talking about this game. If 400 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 5: the Colts win on Saturday night, the Bills control their 401 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 5: destiny in the division because the Bills can beat the 402 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 5: Patriots next week, so that is a huge foot for them. 403 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 5: And if the Colts win and the Titans lose here 404 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 5: to the Steelers, suddenly that division the Colts Titans matchup 405 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 5: is very close. So and the Steelers have a leg 406 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 5: up in their division as well. So I put in 407 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 5: a Buffalo Bills Inanapolis, Colts Pittsburgh Steelers division of parlay 408 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 5: all three of them. I got that at six and 409 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 5: eighty five to one, So let's go, let's get crazy 410 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 5: and have a little fun with a six five to one. 411 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 5: I threw the Rams in there on one of them 412 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 5: as well, which put us over five thousand to one. 413 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 5: These are crazy odds, which tell us that is very 414 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 5: likely not going to happen. But the odds are crazy 415 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 5: in our favor despite the long numbers. So play around 416 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 5: with some of those long division odds. You might be 417 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 5: able to find something interesting there. I'm not mad at it. 418 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 5: I'm not mad at it at all. I'll take them. 419 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 5: Not mad at it. That's a buzz because I'm going 420 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 5: to get on that one. Let's do our third game 421 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 5: here we said Cincinnati. We're coming back to that one here, 422 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 5: Bengals at Broncos. This was one that I was on 423 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 5: the look ahead. I had Denver at plus three a 424 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 5: week ago today when we did our podcast. Another one 425 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 5: where the line has moved a ton. Denver is now 426 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 5: two and a half point favorites rather than three point underdogs. 427 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 5: We got a lot of line of value there this 428 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 5: season that hasn't gone very well. We've been the lines 429 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 5: have been more accurate on opening than closing lines. But 430 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 5: hopefully we're on the right side here. Why do you 431 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 5: think the line has moved so much on this one? 432 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 5: Is this just people betting on Denver? 433 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 4: You don't understand this number at all. 434 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 1: And look, you know a lot of people like to 435 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: talk about Teddy Covers, but he's only six and six 436 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: as a favorite the last two seedsons, So this is 437 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: not a guy who is truly elevating his team. He's 438 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: really relying on his defense. And when you look at 439 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: the matchup between these two teams, I think the key 440 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: to this game rest on the Bengals run defense. They 441 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,359 Speaker 1: have allowed a team to rush for more than one 442 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: hundred yards in their last four games, and I think 443 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: you do that this week against Teddy Bridgewater and his 444 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: Broncos offense, which is kind of really conservative. You're relying 445 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: on Bridgewater, and then when you look on the other 446 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: side of the ball, the Broncos are just twenty fifth 447 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: and DBA against the run, which means that Mixing can 448 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: have a big day. 449 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 4: And I think the one thing that we saw last week. 450 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: Is that Joe Burrow, even though he had some problems 451 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 1: with his pinky finger, he was able to make big 452 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: plays and I think he'll be able to do that 453 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: this week, and especially as if he has the running 454 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 1: game going and they're a little bit more aggressive. I 455 00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 1: personally like the Bengals in this spot. I think it's 456 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: enough to plus three. I'll be all over the Bengals 457 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: this week. 458 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, this for me is similar. I'm here where you 459 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 5: are on the other couple games we talked about, which 460 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 5: is I just think this is a coin flippy game. 461 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 5: I think these teams are extremely well matched. Like just 462 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 5: look at some of the metrics by DBA. Denver is 463 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 5: eighteenth and season long DVA, Cincinnati is nineteenth dead even 464 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 5: when Cincinnati's on offense, the Bengals are twenty first offensively, 465 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 5: the Broncos are twenty first defensively. When Denver is on offense, 466 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 5: Denver is twelfth offensively, Cincinnati is twelfth defensively. But you 467 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 5: literally can't get more evenly matched than this. So I've 468 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 5: been watching this line because again, it looks like it 469 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,239 Speaker 5: might get two plus three. Maybe if it does, I'm 470 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 5: sitting on a Denver plus three ticket. I might just 471 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 5: grab the Cincinnati plus three ticket and possibly have a 472 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 5: good chance at the middle there we get a close game. 473 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 5: We've seen a lot of these one and two point 474 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 5: games this season. Do you ever play the middle like that? 475 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 5: Would you do a plus three on each side and 476 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 5: just you know, use the vague to kind of let 477 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 5: it ride and hope you get cash both. 478 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I've definitely done that. 479 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: I think that's something that you see a lot of 480 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: guys do all the time, and then like there's times where, look, 481 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 1: the three and a half is so valuable in today's NFL, 482 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: you'll see people grab it three and a half and 483 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: come back and lay two and a half. 484 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 4: So a six point middle through the zero, that's huge. 485 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 5: So yeah, so I might be doing that here if 486 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 5: I'm a fresh better on this game right now. I 487 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 5: think that my best play right now is the Bengals 488 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 5: money line at a plus one to thirty, just because 489 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 5: I think it's mostly a coin flip and if you 490 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 5: give me a plus one thirty on effectively a coin flip, 491 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,959 Speaker 5: that's gonna be my best play. So I would think 492 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 5: about that one if I'm coming in fresh here. 493 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 3: I agree. 494 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 5: I was gonna point out that Teddy covers stats as well. 495 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 5: Teddy's ats has been great, but it's better when he's 496 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 5: as an underdog. He's almost invincible that way, and he's 497 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 5: almost invincible on the road. But this is as a 498 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 5: home favorite, and so I think, you know what the 499 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 5: trends are. The trends are the trends. We can't argue 500 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 5: with them. He's actually only thirteen and eleven against the 501 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 5: spread in games where the spread is under a field 502 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 5: goal like this one. So that doesn't mean that he's 503 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 5: terrible here, but it doesn't mean that you got to 504 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 5: kind of throw those Teddy covers angles out a little bit. 505 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 5: I looked at the under here. Denver's unders we know 506 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 5: have crushed this season. Denver is ten and three to 507 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 5: the under, but the line's at forty four. Cincinnati hasn't 508 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,679 Speaker 5: goett under forty four since Week three, so this is 509 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 5: just a toss up. 510 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 3: To me. 511 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 5: I'm not going to be heavily on either side here, 512 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 5: but I might end up just on that middle. Like 513 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 5: we talked about. 514 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think on one big trend that you always 515 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 1: gott to look at, and I think it applies to 516 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 1: all three of these games. Short road dogs and three 517 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: or less are twenty three and ten against the spread. 518 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: That's seventy against the spread this season. That hasn't come 519 00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: down to earth yet. So I think we're going to 520 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 1: see one or two of these these dogs that be 521 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 1: covered in this this podcast today covered so it'll be 522 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: interesting to see. 523 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 5: Now these are toss ups, so we'll I'm sure we're 524 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 5: talking about some of these games again on Sunday. 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Like usual, 558 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 5: we're just gonna give you the thirty second rate show 559 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 5: update here. We've got these picks in on the app 560 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 5: at actualnetwork dot com on social, so check for more 561 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 5: details there. For him, what is your first beast bat 562 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 5: for a week fifteen? 563 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: My first best bet is the Cleveland Browns team total 564 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: under nineteen and a half. The Browns are missing everybody 565 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: and I meet everybody. You're missing right guard Wyatt Teller, 566 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: you're missing left tackle Jeddrick Wills, you're missing Austin Hooper, 567 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. And while I do believe that case Ketam 568 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: probably is an upgrade over Baker, as with him dealing 569 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 1: with his injuries, when you're missing all of these guys 570 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: around him, I don't know how this team is going 571 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 1: to be able to score points. Look, the Browns will 572 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 1: score seventeen or less points and seven or the last 573 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: eight games they couldn't score in the entire second half 574 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: against a decimated Raven secondary and probably one of the 575 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: best scheduling spots that we've seen in the last ten 576 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 1: twenty years. So I don't know how they score in 577 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 1: this matchup. They don't even They had head coach Kevis 578 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: Defense and assistant coach Ryan Cordell this weekend, So I'm 579 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,479 Speaker 1: taking her team total under nineteen and a half. 580 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 5: Now that one's on Saturday, it's a big one for 581 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 5: the playoff race, So whoever is out there, we'll have 582 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 5: to be watching and see what happens there. I'm going 583 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 5: to Sunday night, I'm gonna take the New Orleans Saints 584 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 5: plus eleven on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Look, 585 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 5: we know the Bocks offense has been awesome, but the 586 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 5: Saints defense has been very good too, and they just 587 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 5: have really had Tom Brady's number in this matchup. Three 588 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,199 Speaker 5: regular season matchups against Tom Brady at the Bucks, and 589 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 5: the Saints have won all three by eleven points or more. 590 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,919 Speaker 5: So they just the defense knows how to slow this 591 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,959 Speaker 5: offense down. But the thing that did it for me is, 592 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 5: we know Tampa Bay's run defense has been absolute elite, 593 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 5: and how can the Saints do anything on offense when 594 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 5: the whole thing is built around the run? With Taysom Hill, 595 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 5: here's the problem. Box defense bottom five EPA against the 596 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,879 Speaker 5: run over the last six weeks, so teams are actually 597 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 5: getting to them on the run, only seventeenth in DVA. 598 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 5: I'm on the run for the whole season, so teams 599 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 5: keep not running on Tampa. I think it's time to run. 600 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 5: It's the Saintstorm really have any choice but to run. 601 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 5: New Orleans this season with Alvin Kamara and left tackle 602 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 5: Tarron Armstrad in the lineup, which they are now, New 603 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 5: Orleans is six and two with wins against the Packers, 604 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 5: the Patriots and these Buccaneers. So I'm taking the Saints 605 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 5: plus eleven. Taysom Hills starts have gone under five or 606 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 5: six games, so if you're under, that's another reason that 607 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 5: the game stays closer. But I'm gonna sprinkle the money 608 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,720 Speaker 5: line as well plus four hundred. I think the Saints 609 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 5: have better than a twenty percent implied chance to win 610 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 5: this game outright. It would really spoil things for Tampa's 611 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 5: one seed chase. It'll really spoil things for my Tom 612 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 5: Brady MVP ticket. I think it's kind of the last 613 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 5: hurdle here. The Saints are just a matchup problem, and 614 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 5: I like them here. I like the underdog. 615 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: Sunday Night, the Saints had had their number for the 616 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: entire Tom Brady in Tampa Bay era. 617 00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 4: So I'm not Maddy. I'm a little scared of it, just. 618 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: Because I just don't think Taysom Hill is gonna be 619 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: able to throw the ball, and at some point I 620 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 1: think Tom. 621 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 4: Is gonna be able to get their number. But from 622 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 4: a number perspective, I totally get it. 623 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 5: All Right, what's your next second or best spot for 624 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 5: a week fifteen? 625 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: Okay, So they just announced that it's looking like Lamar 626 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 1: Jackson is a long shot to play. He missed practice 627 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: once again. But not only did he miss practice, you 628 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 1: have five Ravens offensive linemen who get in practice Thursday, 629 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: including three starters. The defense a secondary replacement level guys 630 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 1: out there, and you got to deal with Aaron Rodgers. 631 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 1: I know Aaron Rodgers a little banged up, but this 632 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 1: line sitting at five and a half now, I think 633 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 1: you're gonna see this number go up to six, maybe seven. 634 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 1: But I want you guys to go grab that as 635 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: soon as possible. As soon as you guys hear this, 636 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: you need to go grab that because it's likely that 637 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is gonna be announced out and then even 638 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: if he does play, I'm gonna be honest with you, 639 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 1: Even if Lamar Jackson plays, he's not. 640 00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 4: Gonna be able to run. He has a high ankle sprint. 641 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 1: So the last thing you want is Lamar Jackson out 642 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: there and he can't run. So you're looking at Huntley 643 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 1: against Aaron Rodgers, and I think you got to take 644 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: this all day. 645 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 3: Yeah. I really like the Packers here. 646 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 5: I want to talk about this game, but we just 647 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,520 Speaker 5: didn't know about Lamar Jackson coming in There's two key 648 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 5: mismatches here. Baltimore's run attack against a bad Green Bay 649 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 5: run defense. That's a big mismatch, but it's based on 650 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 5: the quarterback and Lamar Jackson is the run attack, so 651 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 5: whether he plays or is banged up, that's not going 652 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 5: to be the same. But the other mismatch is which 653 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 5: is Baltimore's terrible secondary and Aaron Rodgers lighting up, so 654 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 5: that's going to be there. 655 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 3: I like the Packers. 656 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 5: I grabbed the minus five and a half already, so 657 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 5: I agree with you on that one. My last one 658 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 5: is just to hold your nose, look away, and get 659 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 5: your money in Houston. Texans plus five at Jacksonville, Goodbye 660 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 5: Urban Meyers Cia Never. I'm a little worried that maybe 661 00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 5: Jacksonville just comes out fired up, that they finally got 662 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,479 Speaker 5: rid of the wrench that stole their season. 663 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 3: But if you look at these. 664 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 5: Teams, they're just bad. They're bad at everything except the 665 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 5: one unit on this field that will be good is 666 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 5: Houston's defense. They've been near top ten DVA the whole season. 667 00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 5: Jaguars are not playing well. Texans have owned Houston. They've 668 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 5: won seven in a row. Sorry, Texans have owned Jaguars. 669 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 5: They've won seven in a row over Jacksonville and thirteen 670 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 5: to the last fifteen, So this line of the money 671 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 5: is coming on Jacksonville. I guess I don't know. Maybe 672 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 5: there something I'm seeing here, maybe it's a trap, but 673 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 5: I'm just gonna step into it. Texans plus five Texans 674 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 5: plus one seventy to the money line. Listen, I've only 675 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 5: told you get back the Texans twice on this podcast, 676 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 5: and that's the two wins that they've had. So I'm 677 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 5: going for three here. See if Houston can sweep the 678 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 5: Jaguars and ruin their number two draft pick. But that 679 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 5: is my other best bet for this week. Am I 680 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 5: crazy to even play this game at all? 681 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 1: I'm personally staying away from it, but I do find 682 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 1: it interesting that the market thinks did Urban Meyer is 683 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: worth two points to the spread. We saw this line 684 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: go from three and a half to five and a half. 685 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 4: That's crazy to me. 686 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: I just I know we do see we tend to 687 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 1: see teams try to bounce back when they lose their coach, 688 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 1: but that's that's kind of that's a lot to me, 689 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: So I understand why people want to come back and 690 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: take to Houston Texans, but I'm staying away from it. 691 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 4: Interestingly enough, I'm. 692 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 1: Going with, well, we're gonna do the Hot Read Week 693 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 1: sixteen look aheadline. 694 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 2: Hot Rocky ice rights ice Cream. 695 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 1: I like the Jaguars plus one and a half against 696 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 1: the New York Jets. The Jaguars can close at four 697 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 1: and a half five point favorites against the Texans, then 698 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 1: there's no way in the world that they should be 699 00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: plus one and a half on the road against the 700 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: New York Jets. 701 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 4: We're talking about we really. 702 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 1: Don't have too much home for advantage in the NFL 703 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 1: these days, and you look at the Jets. 704 00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 4: They're banged up. 705 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: Like straight up, they don't have they don't have a 706 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: Lodger More, they don't have Corey Davis. Zach Wilson is terrible, 707 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: and I think the Jaguars can get to the quarterback 708 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: and cause them some problems. 709 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 4: And look, the Jets defense is horrible. I know they 710 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 4: got Robert. 711 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 1: Salah, but he doesn't have the ballplayers the Jaguars offense 712 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,760 Speaker 1: should be able to get role in. Trevor Lawrence should 713 00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 1: probably have one of his best days of his career 714 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 1: next week. So I'm going with the Jacks plus one 715 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 1: and a half. Honestly, I won't be surprised they closed 716 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 1: as a favorite. 717 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 5: And that is a lot of Jacksonville talk. Thanks so 718 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 5: much Urban Meyer for meganu to talk about the Jaguars 719 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 5: for like four minutes there. 720 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 3: I'm going to with my look ahead. 721 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 5: I'm going back to the Colts and I'm going to 722 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 5: take Indianapolis next week right now plus four on the 723 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 5: road at Arizona, and I'm backing them with the same 724 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,680 Speaker 5: logic that we liked on New England. I just think 725 00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 5: it's actually the right logic this time. I think Indianapolis 726 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 5: wins this game in the trenches. Cardinals run defense has 727 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 5: been really poor lately. Teams are able to run on them, 728 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 5: and the Colts are healthy. They're going to run the 729 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 5: ball in this game when you control the clock. I 730 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 5: like the Colts on the defense. They play this very 731 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,319 Speaker 5: good fundamental defense. I think that's a good way to 732 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 5: attack this Cardinals attack that can kind of, you know, 733 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,280 Speaker 5: go for the little glitchy sort of stuff. Deander Hopkins 734 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 5: is out. We know about the late season Cliff Kingsbury thing. 735 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,279 Speaker 5: Maybe that's not real, but it wasn't pretty. On the 736 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 5: Monday Night here's the key. I want to grab this 737 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 5: number now, plus four because either the Colts lose on 738 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 5: Saturday Night and now you're playing for your season, this 739 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,759 Speaker 5: your desperation mode and you have to win this game 740 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 5: so you've got that factor, or the Colts win beat 741 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 5: New England and this line moves and we lose the 742 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,879 Speaker 5: key number. So either way, I want the plus four 743 00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 5: right now. I will probably play the money line as well. 744 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,400 Speaker 5: I like Indy on the road at Arizona next week. 745 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,279 Speaker 4: Arizona has been playing above their level the whole year, 746 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 4: so I get it. 747 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 3: I like it all right. 748 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,360 Speaker 5: Well, that is going to wrap it up for another 749 00:34:56,600 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 5: episode of Strong Side Fridays. Don't forget to download the 750 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 5: app if you haven't yet. You follow all of our 751 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 5: picks there and please rate, subscribe, and review the podcast. 752 00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 5: Check out Stucking a Rape on six Pack and Bonus 753 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,760 Speaker 5: six pack if you're listening to this on Friday morning. 754 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 5: Later on Friday afternoon, Stucking a Rape On our back 755 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,239 Speaker 5: with a little extra twenty minute podcast giving you the 756 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,760 Speaker 5: rest of their six pack. With all this weird COVID news, 757 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,840 Speaker 5: we're getting some late picks out this week nd you 758 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:24,760 Speaker 5: the best we can to get you the latest lines. 759 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 3: Raheem and I are back, first. 760 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 5: Thing Monday for your ear holes, giving you all the 761 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 5: update of what happened with all these crazy Saturday and 762 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 5: Sunday games. So Boraheem Palmer, I'm Brandon Anderson. This has 763 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:38,640 Speaker 5: been the Action Network Podcast. 764 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 3: Enjoy your weekend.