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Speaker 1: Happy Friday, guys, what's up?

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Speaker 2: Welcome in to another episode of the Daily Juice Podcast,

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Speaker 2: being brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot Com. My

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Speaker 2: name is Matt Perolt at Sports Talk Matt to go

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Speaker 2: activate all the savings. All right, So look at a

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Speaker 2: couple things here at the top. Bad week. Know, if

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Speaker 2: sand butts about it one two, one in two, one

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Speaker 2: in one, one and two, that's not good. It's bad.

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Speaker 2: By my account, I think we're down like three point

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Speaker 2: seven units for the week.

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Speaker 1: Look a couple things.

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Speaker 2: What I don't need is when you guys want to

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Speaker 2: come into my DMS on Twitter and say, great call

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Speaker 2: with Mitch Keller which happened yesterday. I know what I bet, guys,

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Speaker 2: I know what I lose, and I know when I

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Speaker 2: am losing. If you want to ask me a question

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Speaker 2: like an adult in, say, man, what happened to Keller?

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Speaker 2: Or gosh, what did you see? Or why did you

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Speaker 2: bet the over? I'm miscurious because I want to do

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Speaker 2: for my own research what did you see? And I

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Speaker 2: can tell you. I mean, I tell you on the

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Speaker 2: podcast why I bet the over game.

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Speaker 1: I was wrong?

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Speaker 2: Okay, bottom line, I was wrong. I had trend information

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Speaker 2: that I liked that I followed, and then I bet.

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Speaker 2: I lose. This is not like a joke. Okay, when

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Speaker 2: you lose, if you trail the pick, I lose with you.

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Speaker 2: So when you say something like that and you get

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Speaker 2: the horns coming back at you. And this person was like, WHOA,

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Speaker 2: I can't believe you. Actually you know I listened to

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Speaker 2: the podcast. I'm really sorry. No, no, no, they didn't apologize.

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Speaker 2: I actually want to say exactly what the answer was

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Speaker 2: because I think it's actually relevant to bring it up.

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Speaker 2: It said great call on Mitch Keller, and then when

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Speaker 2: I wasn't exactly nice, they said, I listen to your podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm a fan, real nice way to talk to people, man,

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Speaker 2: But you can bleep on athletes and then be a

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Speaker 2: blank to people who support you. Real professional. My answer

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Speaker 2: to that is, don't be a dick. And I'm sorry

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Speaker 2: if that's with kids in the car, okay, but that's

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Speaker 2: I mean that straight up, like, this is not a

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Speaker 2: fun week for me, and losing is part of this,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not going to be nice if you're going

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Speaker 2: to be a jerk, like that's not in me as

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Speaker 2: a person, as a human being. You get what you

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Speaker 2: give when it comes to me. If you come at me,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to come at you two times harder than

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Speaker 2: you came at me. It's just kind of the way

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Speaker 2: that I am. It's a way that i've been as

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Speaker 2: a host. It's a way i'm a talent. You want to,

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Speaker 2: you know, rattle horns with me, let's go. I am

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent on board with doing that and we

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Speaker 2: can go at it as much as you'd like it too.

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Speaker 2: If you followed me on Twitter for any number of years,

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Speaker 2: you understand that that's how it goes I'm generally a

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Speaker 2: pretty nice person. I'm generally a pretty soft and nice guy. Okay,

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Speaker 2: But if I'm losing during the week and you want

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Speaker 2: to be a smart ass and come at me and

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Speaker 2: say nice, call on Mitch Keller at ten o'clock in

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Speaker 2: the morning Pacific time. I've been up for two hours.

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Speaker 2: I've been running around trying to get my kid ready

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Speaker 2: for school. I'm trying to get ready for BVB. I

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Speaker 2: got a lot of stuff going on, and I get

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Speaker 2: that you're not going to get a nice version of me.

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Speaker 2: Just bottom line, You're not gonna get soft and cuddly

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Speaker 2: and oh it's okay, we'll be okay. It's not me,

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Speaker 2: just not who I am, guys, Okay.

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Speaker 1: So just.

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Speaker 2: That's what my way of saying sorry to you. It's

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Speaker 2: a bad week, and it's a bad week for those

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Speaker 2: of you who have been trailing, and hopefully I figure

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Speaker 2: things out. But look at this is the first losing

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Speaker 2: week we've had forever. I mean, we haven't had a

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Speaker 2: losing week in a long time. And it's not a

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Speaker 2: losing week yet. We have Friday, we have Saturday, and

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Speaker 2: we have Sunday. We're not dead yet. We might be

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Speaker 2: able to salvage and put this thing. Hey, a three

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Speaker 2: and oh mark today, and we head towards the weekend

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Speaker 2: with a real good shot. Okay, so it's not like

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Speaker 2: we're going oh and three, oh and three, oh and three.

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Speaker 2: One and two is not great, but it's really one bet.

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Speaker 2: We flipped that one bet to a two and one,

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Speaker 2: which oftentimes that's what we've been is two and one

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Speaker 2: throughout a week. That's how we get to a winning thing.

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Speaker 2: So onto the picks we go. Here, two college football

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Speaker 2: plays to get into in one major league baseball play

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Speaker 2: to give you. I'll give you the baseball play first,

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Speaker 2: because it's kind of a blind bet. We're gonna bet

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Speaker 2: the Dodgers on the to the over on the road

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Speaker 2: for the rest of the year. Basically, Okay, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: bet it every day. I mean, I believe it's seven straight,

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Speaker 2: could be eight straight for the Dodgers. That's how we

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Speaker 2: hit the vast majority of those bets when we went

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Speaker 2: eight to oh and one on major League baseball plays.

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Speaker 2: I believe six of them were on the Dodgers over

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Speaker 2: on the road. So playing on the road at Seattle

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Speaker 2: here it's Miller and Kirby.

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Speaker 1: I actually don't really care.

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Speaker 2: Who's pitching, to be quite honest, the trends are so

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Speaker 2: strong and it's just one of those things where, I mean,

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Speaker 2: we've been profitable with it, and we're gonna keep on

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Speaker 2: betting it. In case you're curious, the over is sixteen

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Speaker 2: to oh to one for the Dodgers in their life

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Speaker 2: seventeen road games against a non divisional opponent. The over

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Speaker 2: is seventeen and two this year for the Dodgers when

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Speaker 2: they're on the road against an American League team, and

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Speaker 2: I believe they've hit seven or eight straight overs just

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Speaker 2: on their own here on the road. The last time

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Speaker 2: was a push because we bet ten and it fell ten.

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Speaker 2: The number is seven and a half right now at

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Speaker 2: minus one to eighteen. We're betting over the Dodgers and

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Speaker 2: the Mariners today at seven and a half. Kirby got

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Speaker 2: lit up in his last sorry not Kirby, Allen got Miller.

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Speaker 1: Now Alan By.

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Speaker 2: Bobby Miller got lit up in his last start seven innings,

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Speaker 2: five earned runs, a seven to sixth final. In his

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Speaker 2: last starts, he was pretty good at home against the

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Speaker 2: Atlanta Braves seven innings, one earned run, but his last

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Speaker 2: road start before he started against Washington. Against Cleveland the

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Speaker 2: last time he faced an American League team is he

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Speaker 2: gave up four earned runs eight to three final in

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Speaker 2: the loss. So just kind of following the trend there

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Speaker 2: on the road against an American League team. A lot

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Speaker 2: of runs to be scored here. Between the Dodgers and

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Speaker 2: the Mariners, George Kirby's been pretty darn good. I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to deny the guy is really it could be

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Speaker 2: a massive part of the Mariner's rotation if he makes

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Speaker 2: it to the they make it to the playoffs. But

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Speaker 2: eleven runs, nine runs, nine runs, ten runs scored. In

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Speaker 2: the last four games in which Kirby has pitched, he's

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Speaker 2: given up four earned, three earned, three earned, and four

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Speaker 2: earned himself in those games. Feel confident in this over

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Speaker 2: seven and a half Dodgers and the Mariners at minus

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Speaker 2: one point eighteen. That's widely available Fan Duel's number that

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Speaker 2: I'm quoting right there on that all right to college

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Speaker 2: football Virginia in Maryland. This is interesting. So the total

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Speaker 2: in this game opened at fifty and a half. It's

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Speaker 2: been bet down to forty seven at certain places. Virginia's

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Speaker 2: offense is not good. They can't I mean, they're okay

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Speaker 2: at throwing the football, but they do not run the ball.

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Speaker 2: And we're talking about one point five five rushes per

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Speaker 2: yards per rush for Virginia this season. Now, they've played

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Speaker 2: one Cupcake and they got throttled by Tennessee, scoring thirteen

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Speaker 2: points in that game. Maryland's defense is really good. Only

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Speaker 2: three point seven yards per rush given up passing the

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Speaker 2: football nine point seven yards per pass play for Virginia

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Speaker 2: isn't bad, but Maryland's pass defense is very good.

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Speaker 1: They're currently, I want to say, very good. It's good.

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Speaker 1: It's the middle of the pack.

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Speaker 2: Good yards passing per game, only one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: nine yards given up per its top fifteen in football

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Speaker 2: so far.

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Speaker 1: So it's been pretty good there.

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Speaker 2: Nine point five yards per pass play is one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fourteenth, but theyre tenth in sack percentage they get

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Speaker 2: after the quarterback. They hit the quarterback. I don't think

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Speaker 2: Virginia scores all right. The number is fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty much fourteen and a half everywhere. It has

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Speaker 2: been bet up to fifteen here in Vegas. I just

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Speaker 2: don't want to lay Maybe I gun shy from last

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Speaker 2: night with Memphis going one and two. Last night we

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Speaker 2: laid it with Memphis. They won by four. Baseball lost.

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Speaker 2: We got the same game Parlay Rusher same game teaser

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Speaker 2: right with football.

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Speaker 1: That was awesome to see that.

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Speaker 2: Every bet we would have made in that game, by

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Speaker 2: the way, would have hit the dog taking six and

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Speaker 2: a half that cashed, the over at forty nine that cashed,

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Speaker 2: the teaser cashed. It was a matter of what juice

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Speaker 2: you were going to like. So all three bets I

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Speaker 2: would have made in the game, they all would have cashed.

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Speaker 2: So the handicap was right on the Vikings and the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: That's good as we head towards Friday, and we had

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Speaker 2: towards the weekend with the NFL in Week two coming

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Speaker 2: up to get that first pit that Thursday night game, right,

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Speaker 2: that's good. But I just don't think Virginia's going to score.

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Speaker 2: This is something that Dave Sheripan, my co host on

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Speaker 2: the Bostonia Versus the Book, has talked a lot about

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Speaker 2: with just a lot of sharp betters he knows have

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Speaker 2: been doing this. They have said, okay, if you like

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Speaker 2: the game under, what about a team total under.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: We talked about this a little bit on BVB and

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Speaker 2: I think we talked about it on the juice last

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Speaker 2: night about Navy team total. I thought Navy wouldn't score,

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Speaker 2: and then Navy scored a lot of points, way more

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Speaker 2: than I thought they shore twenty four points, way more

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Speaker 2: than I thought they would score. I think their team

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Speaker 2: total was thirteen and a half or sixteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: something like that. They blew over it. But I think

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Speaker 2: under sixteen and a half for Virginia tonight is a

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Speaker 2: good play. I don't think Virginia is going to score

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Speaker 2: all that much. I think Virginia is going to really

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Speaker 2: struggle against Maryland's defense on the road. Against the Maryland

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Speaker 2: team that's been pretty good as long as we're not

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Speaker 2: going to see turnovers in that Maryland defense, or sorry,

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Speaker 2: that Virginia defense doesn't cause turnovers for the Maryland offense.

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Speaker 2: And I know this Maryland offense has turned the ball

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Speaker 2: over a little bit more than what I would like

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Speaker 2: them to see turn it over. At the moment, they are,

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Speaker 2: you know, not giving it away a ton, but they're

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Speaker 2: giving it away a little bit more than I would

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Speaker 2: like them to turn the football over. Two giveaways per

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Speaker 2: game in the first that's two per game. That's four

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Speaker 2: total in two games for maryl I would like that

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Speaker 2: to stop. They do have two takeaways per game that

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Speaker 2: they're averaging, so it's sort of been a net zero

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Speaker 2: their total. Their margin is zero, which is in the

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Speaker 2: top sixty for football. But that's not great. I don't

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Speaker 2: want to see them, you know, give you the ball away.

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Speaker 2: I don't want see them they take the ball away either.

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Speaker 2: But I think Maryland can cover this spread. I think

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Speaker 2: they can cover fourteen and a half or fifteen. I

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Speaker 2: just don't want to lay it. I'd rather look at

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Speaker 2: the team total for Maryland. I'm sorry, sorry for Virginia,

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Speaker 2: and bet the under under sixteen and a half for

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Speaker 2: Virginia at Maryland. I don't think Maryland gets scored on

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Speaker 2: here tonight. I think Virginia's defense, sorry that Maryland's defense

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Speaker 2: is good enough to keep Virginia down.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they run the ball.

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Speaker 2: That's then they have to throw the football, which is

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Speaker 2: kind of into the teeth of Maryland's defense. Lets them

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Speaker 2: get after it, sack the quarterback. Virginia under sixteen and

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Speaker 2: a half points for one point oh one point eight

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Speaker 2: units on that. FanDuel's got this Draftking has it a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower. DraftKings is at fifteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: Fandels at sixteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Better number at FanDuel.

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Speaker 2: We'll take the sixteen and a half which Fandel at

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Speaker 2: minus one. Eighteen Virginia against Maryland on the road, team

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Speaker 2: total under sixteen and a half points. And finally, Army

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Speaker 2: against UTSA. This game opened up at forty six. It's

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Speaker 2: down to forty four and a half. All right, this

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Speaker 2: is going to be a game. To me, this is

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Speaker 2: where we're going to look at the triple option and

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Speaker 2: the running attack. Navy did go over yesterday, I give

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Speaker 2: you that. But Army is a team which I think

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Speaker 2: we're going to see the running clock come in to

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Speaker 2: play in a big, big way with these teams. UTSA

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Speaker 2: also likes to run the football. So far, both games

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Speaker 2: for UTSA have gone under. Now the totals were really

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Speaker 2: high fifty nine and sixty six. The books were way

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Speaker 2: off twenty thirteen, seventeen fourteen. The loss to Houston thirty

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Speaker 2: three points under. Last week twenty eight points under the

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Speaker 2: time before that. The books have wised up. Last game

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Speaker 2: out for Army they beat Delaware State fifty seven nothing.

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Speaker 2: It's Delaware State. The game actually went over by themselves,

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Speaker 2: but against Louisiana Monroe, they lost the game seventeen thirteen.

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Speaker 2: The game went under by seventeen and a half points.

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Speaker 2: I think we're going to see this army offense struggle

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Speaker 2: to score, all right. I think UTSA is going to

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Speaker 2: run the football a lot, and I think we're going

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Speaker 2: to see both these teams defensively rise up, and I

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Speaker 2: think where both these teams are going to run the football,

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Speaker 2: keep the clock moving, and then we're over the key number,

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Speaker 2: which I don't think there really are key numbers in

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Speaker 2: college football. Okay, forty four to forty five in the

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Speaker 2: NFL is generally a key number, but college football is

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Speaker 2: such a wonky thing that there really are key numbers

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Speaker 2: in college football. But I think forty four and a

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Speaker 2: half half is a good number to go ahead and

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Speaker 2: bet under here, just following the steam, following the trend

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Speaker 2: of what we're seeing right now between these two teams.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we're gonna see a lot of offense.

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Speaker 2: I do think we're gonna see a lot of running

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Speaker 2: the football, and I do think we're gonna see the

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Speaker 2: clock move. It's eight and a half for UTSA. Again,

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Speaker 2: over seven scares me just a little bit here, But

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Speaker 2: I mean UTSA is scoring seventeen points per game. Army

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Speaker 2: is scoring thirteen points per game. UTSA is giving up

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Speaker 2: fifteen points per game. Army is giving up seventeen points

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Speaker 2: per game. Now again, the you know, competition matters. But

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Speaker 2: you know, utsa's defense was pretty good. They held they

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Speaker 2: held Houston down. Army right now has the number one

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Speaker 2: pass defense because no one throws the ball against them.

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Speaker 2: They just I mean Army three point you know, that's

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Speaker 2: pretty good. Three point one yards per pass play right

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Speaker 2: now in the country. For Army, they're number one. It's

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Speaker 2: two games in utsas ninety eighth, five point seven yards

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Speaker 2: per pass play. UTSA wants to run the football four

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Speaker 2: point one yards per rush. Army's rush defense is not great.

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Speaker 2: Six point five yards per rush is outside the top

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Speaker 2: one hundred. But on the other side, Army wants to

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Speaker 2: run the football three point five yards per rush. Utsa's

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Speaker 2: defense two yards of rush eleventh best in the country.

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Speaker 2: These are two defenses and two run heavy teams running clock, move, move, move.

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Speaker 1: Under Army.

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Speaker 2: At UTSA, we're going under forty four and a half

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Speaker 2: here in this one.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the third game, In case you're curious.

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Speaker 2: There's a third game tonight, and that is air Force

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Speaker 2: taking on Utah State. I don't get the line, so

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Speaker 2: I'm nervous here. These are two Mountain West Conference foes.

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Speaker 2: Utah State went to Iowa and played Iowa tough. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to bet three straight unders, but I do

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Speaker 2: lean towards the under in this game. But I also

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Speaker 2: lean towards the dog in this game. In fact, I

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Speaker 2: want to watch this. I'm doing Sports Grid if you

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Speaker 2: know what that is. It's a TV network on the internet,

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Speaker 2: a fast channel as they call it. But I'm hosting

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Speaker 2: on Friday night and I'm gonna live bet this game.

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Speaker 2: This is a live betting opportunity. I want to see

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Speaker 2: the first couple of series to see what these teams

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Speaker 2: look like, because I think the dog is live, but

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Speaker 2: I don't fully understand the number here. Air Force is

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Speaker 2: a team that is two to zero. They killed Robert Morris,

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Speaker 2: who cares? They barely beat Sam Houston State didn't cover.

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Speaker 2: Was that a fluke? Was that an anomaly? Utah States

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Speaker 2: defense is really good. I think this could be a

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Speaker 2: third under. This could be an under but I don't

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Speaker 2: want to play three unders in one night. That's on

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Speaker 2: college football. That's just brutal. But I think there's a

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Speaker 2: chance here the total it's forty six and a half

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Speaker 2: Utah StatET and air Force under might be a good

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Speaker 2: play as well.

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Speaker 1: I want to watch this game and bet this live.

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Speaker 2: Either take it's nine and a half points right now,

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Speaker 2: I don't fully get the line. I'm inclined to take

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Speaker 2: the dog at plus nine and a half. I'll probably

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Speaker 2: take the dog my self personally, taking Utah State plus

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Speaker 2: nine and a half, but I want to see the

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Speaker 2: total until I bet the total live, so I lean

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Speaker 2: towards the under.

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Speaker 1: I lean towards the dog.

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Speaker 2: Not official on that, but if you want extra action,

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Speaker 2: I think those two plays are going to probably be

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Speaker 2: good in the game. I just don't understand what I'm

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Speaker 2: not seeing here. Is air Force much better than I think,

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Speaker 2: and I'm just completely off reading air Force the Falcons,

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I mean Iowa.

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Speaker 2: Let's see. I like Utah State's defense a lot. I

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Speaker 2: like them against Iowa. We bet the under in that game.

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Speaker 2: Kind of similar handicap for Utah State against air Force.

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Speaker 2: But officially we're going over seven and a half Dodgers

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Speaker 2: and the Mariners at mine one eighteen. We're going team

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Speaker 2: total under sixteen and a half for Virginia at minus

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Speaker 2: at minus one eighteen, and we're going Army and Utsa

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Speaker 2: under forty four and a half at minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: If you go three and oho, we're right back in

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Speaker 2: even two in ones not bad. Then we hit the

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Speaker 2: weekend down two point seven units or so, and it's

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Speaker 2: workable because of how big the cards are. On Saturday

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Speaker 2: and Sunday we go bat oh in three. Today, it's

355
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Speaker 2: gonna be very difficult to pull ourselves out of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be a losing week. So this is

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Speaker 2: a pretty big week. It's a pivotal day to pivotal

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Speaker 2: day in the week for me here today on our

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Speaker 2: Friday night, hopefully we get things going. Last point, someone

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Speaker 2: asked me in the Discord channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat,

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Speaker 2: am I going to bring back the Discord bet If

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Speaker 2: you guys are long term og listeners of the juice.

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Speaker 2: We used to do a crowdsource bet every Saturday where

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Speaker 2: I got on the Discord channel and I had you

365
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Speaker 2: guys go ahead and call in or I guess come

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Speaker 2: I join a live chat essentially in audio chat, kind

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Speaker 2: of like Twitter spaces, but on Discord. The reason why

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Speaker 2: I'm not doing that anymore is because I started a

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Speaker 2: proxy service for the football handicapping contests, so Saturday mornings

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Speaker 2: are really busy for me. So that's why I'm not

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Speaker 2: doing it this year because I've got that work. I

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Speaker 2: work every Saturday morning now for three or four hours

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Speaker 2: picks for the football contests. So that's why I can't

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Speaker 2: do the Discord bet anymore. But even if I wasn't

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Speaker 2: doing that, I probably wouldn't bring it back because I

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Speaker 2: think the Discord bet when we did it, when I

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Speaker 2: came back, I think it went like one in ten,

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Speaker 2: so people were fading it.

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Speaker 1: People liked it to fade it.

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Speaker 2: But the idea was to have a communal winn, to

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Speaker 2: like have a bunch of bets and then all of

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Speaker 2: us go and cash together. That wasn't happening because I

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Speaker 2: was betting my money, so I was down like four

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Speaker 2: or five units doing that.

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Speaker 1: So that's why the Discord bet.

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Speaker 2: Wi'll find another way to bring back some live chats

387
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Speaker 2: and some fun stuff as well. Maybe we'll watch a

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Speaker 2: big game in the World Series or something together, talk

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Speaker 2: about live betting or whatever we'll do there. But I'll

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Speaker 2: find ways of doing stuff live, just not on Saturday

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Speaker 2: mornings for football season for those two reasons. Okay again,

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Speaker 2: Three bets over in the Dodgers game, Virginia team total under,

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Speaker 2: Army utsa under for the game, and then leading on

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Speaker 2: the Dog leaning for the Dog ut with Air Force

395
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Speaker 2: and Utah State with a plus nine and a half

396
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Speaker 2: on Utah State. Myn' is Matt Paralticus followed me across

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Speaker 2: all socials at sports Doc Matt every single morning the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast, always being brought to you by Omaha

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Speaker 2: Steaks dot com