WEBVTT - Could you land a plane in an emergency? 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.120 I'm Manny, I'm Noah, and this and this is no 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:06.159 such thing a show where we settle our dumb arguments 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.119 and yours by actually doing the research. On today's episode, 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:14.880 we explore the concept of confidence, and more specifically, over confidence. 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:18.040 As I attempt to do something I have absolutely no 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:27.600 business attempting. There's no such thing, no such thing, such thing. 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:37.680 So there's a survey that's gone around. It came out 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.599 early last year. And here's the question, and then I'll 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.680 ask for your answers. This is from you Gov. The 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:46.479 question is how confident are you that you could safely 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:50.320 land a passenger airplane in an emergency situation, relying only 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.120 on the assistance of air traffic control. And you can 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:58.480 answer very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident, not at 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:00.320 all confident, or not sure. 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:02.720 And this is you're not You're not landing it by 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:06.160 yourself like someone what it is? 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:12.840 Okay, I would probably say not very confident to not 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:15.240 at all. I'm somewhere between there. 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:21.800 I'm pretty confident I could land very yeah, I think 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:27.640 somewhere between someone and very confident. If someone's giving me instructions, 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:29.680 I think I think I could do it. 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.000 I think that's how I feel too, So you both 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:33.479 think that, I'd say very. 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:35.080 I think very between. 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:38.920 Someone and when you're an airplane, you either land it 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:41.840 or everyone dies, so there's a lot of pressure. 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.720 I'm not just I think that's helping me, though, I. 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:50.120 Think that's definitely hurting. It's not just like you know, 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.040 if you don't land it, everything's cool. 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:55.800 Like even think about like my first time driving a car, 0:01:56.240 --> 0:02:00.440 I was so nervous with the driving instructor, and the 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:01.720 stakes are so much lower. 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:07.000 Yeah, I guess from what I understand of landing planes, 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.840 which isn't much, but it just seems like because of 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.440 the way planes are set up, it's all just like. 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:13.880 Is this this is a commercial plane? 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:15.119 Passenger airplane? 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:19.280 Yeah, yeah, that's like a commercial So I'm assuming. 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:21.000 Y'all think ya could land of bowing. 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:25.280 That's easier. I'm saying, I think that would be easier 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:28.120 than a small little plane where it's like, okay, like 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:30.880 because these planes have so many buttons, it seems like 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:32.840 it's mostly kind of automatically setting up. 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:34.600 A lot of them are automated. 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:39.080 Ye are confused, Okay, once they're in the sky, landing 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:43.400 and takeoff are still done. By pilots. It's it's like 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:50.079 a random person can't just take off, yeah, but maybe. 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:53.320 Landing and takeoff or done by pilots. But at the 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:56.280 same time, I think we're imagining them like having some 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:59.200 kind of like steering wheel where they're turning. They're like 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:01.040 typing in numbers that make the plane. 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.480 No, but they're pulling and pushing for see you don't 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:05.920 even you bet you better. 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:06.520 Do some research. 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:08.560 They're pulling the throttle. 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.360 Yeah, well how high and low the plane? 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.000 There's some yeah, but like the moment again, this this 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:17.280 person in air traffic control has all these numbers and 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:20.239 they're saying like, okay, pull this. 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.880 It's just exactly I'm not even yes. 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:26.480 Sorry, that is insane. 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:29.200 The fact that you would have hundreds of people on 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.840 this plane, you have never flown a plane in your 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.760 life before, and both of you think that, yeah, I 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:37.000 could probably do that. Have you been on a plane 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:40.720 when people claping you land? Yeah, that's someone who does 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:43.960 this like every day of their lives. Like there's a 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:45.400 plane is weird. 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:46.440 It's not like, okay that. 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:52.080 Flying a plane is not just something that anyone can do. 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:55.520 Anyone could do it, probably, we just don't because there's 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:56.800 not that many planes. I mean. 0:03:59.520 --> 0:03:59.800 A man. 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.360 Yeah, I don't look, I don't even like I think 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:06.080 that that's crazy. I think most people shouldn't even be 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:06.960 allowed to drive. 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.760 Does the survey say what percentage of people think they 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:15.280 can do it? 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.760 I can read you the results. Okay, yeah, so this 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:22.200 is for all people that answered. Very confident is thirteen percent. Okay, 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:27.560 Somewhat confident is nineteen percent. Not very confident is seventeen percent. 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:30.279 Not at all confident is forty two percent. 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.400 Okay, So most people are normal. 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:34.520 And not sure is nine percent. 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:39.560 So combine that the somewhat and very confident numbers. Yeah, 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:45.080 that would be nineteen plus thirteen thirty two. So thirty 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.120 two percent of people, thirty two percent of all people. Yeah, 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:51.239 all people crazy. This is the weird part. I don't 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.360 think thirty two percent of people could safely land one 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:56.039 in three people, but I believe. 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:56.480 That I could. 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.160 Are you a good driver, Yeah, I'm a great driver. 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:00.640 I liver pizza. 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:03.800 What the hell to do it? Because some of the 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:05.880 worst drivers I know liver pizza. 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:08.840 You have to be able to weave around traffic. You 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:10.599 want to get there on time. You have to know 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:11.640 how to parallel park. 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:13.800 And you don't need to do that with a plane. 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.200 The runway is clear. 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.360 But you said you don't think that thirty people could 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:20.040 do that, right. 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:22.360 You think that land the plane? You know you're you're 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:24.400 built different, you can do different. 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:28.159 I'm not at all confident. I think if I landed 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:29.520 the plane, it would be a miracle. 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:32.640 Well, it would be a miracle for any of us 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:35.159 to do it. That I agree with, Yeah, but not 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:39.400 really hard. Well but actually, yeah, how is. 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:41.360 It a miracle? Both of you feel like you could get. 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.919 Because the miracles out here daily just because it's an emergency. 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:48.040 Just look, every day is a miracle while we're here. 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:50.080 I treat every day why I wake up as a miracle, 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.760 thinking very much every heart. I think the reason why 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:55.320 I feel like it'd be it would be a miracles 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:57.200 like the just think of the headline. Guys never flown 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.880 the plane before lands Yeah, and that plane. That's my 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:04.080 point on these very specific instructions given to him. 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:05.520 Yes through the headphones, So this. 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:08.280 Not too long ago, but it was a small plane. 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.320 The man with a career in flooring sales explains how 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:15.160 we became impromptu pilot when the real pilot passed out 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:15.960 of the controls. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:20.360 They reached over his body because he's at this point unresponsive, 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:24.799 and slowly started to pull back on the stick and turn. 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:29.839 How did you know how to do that? Just common sense, 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:31.760 I guess being on airplanes. 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:34.360 And the guy had flown like hundreds of times before 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:36.400 and he was able to land the plane. But it 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.760 was a smaller plane. He had been in the small planes. 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:41.720 You see what the guy is doing all the time. 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.719 Neither one of you ever been in a cockpit, and 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:46.320 you think you can be in a small plane. 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:48.359 I've been in a cockpit just to like say hi 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:50.200 to the pilot. But I've also played. 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.400 Ace Combat multiple games in that series. 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:59.840 Yeah, have you ever heard of Star Fox? So by gender, 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:01.000 this is how it breaks down. 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.839 So for very confident, which was thirteen percent of all people, 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:08.440 it's male twenty percent and female seven percent. 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.240 Yep, ladies got their mind right. 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:17.480 So they need to feel more confident about society that unfortunately, 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:18.880 you know, ladies are pushed down. 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:21.560 Guys are confidence. Sky is the limit queens. 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.040 I think I think this is a classic case of 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.640 guys just thinking they can do shit that they can't. 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.560 In my opinion, it's a bad thing that women don't 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:33.400 feel more confident women are not. It's not a detriment 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:37.760 to me. I wish everyone was answering that they're very 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:38.480 I was on a. 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:41.160 Plane and the pilot passed out. I wish men and 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.960 women stood up to volunteer to play play. 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:48.400 And I would also say I would probably prefer a 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:51.240 confident women to take that. 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:55.400 I fully believe that like men in general are too 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:59.400 like over confident about things. But I think this specific 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:03.400 I think this specific question is different though, because you 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:07.240 are you aren't relying on yourself. You're relying on a 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:09.720 professional who knows how to land a plan. 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.560 But you're you are the person who is at the 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:14.800 end of the day, going to be responsible for whether 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:15.920 or not you live or die. 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.440 When I fail and the you know, it's on the 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:21.920 cover of the newspaper the next day, they're not going 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:25.080 to be like this guy thought he could do it. 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.600 We gave him perfect instructions and he messed up. They'd 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:31.440 be like brave hero, Yeah, gave it a shot, tried 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:33.160 his best, and he was the only one who could. 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:34.079 Absolutely. 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:37.520 I think the point that it's not easy is the 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:39.120 issue with guys period. 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:40.880 If it were easy, then who would care? 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.199 Right, Guys think that they can do impossible stuff all 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:47.400 the time and have confidence, unearned confidence, And I think 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.920 that's what what's happening here. Why Why do you think 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:52.240 that you can land on a plan you have no 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.760 experience with related in your life. 0:08:54.840 --> 0:08:58.080 Because the thing you're bringing up about unearned confidence, I 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:01.520 don't think it fully applies to this. Because someone is 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:02.920 holding your hand through the problem. 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:05.200 I don't think you need a super high IQ to 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:05.439 do that. 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:09.120 So y'all are both saying that this is not that 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:10.559 hard of a thing to do. Period. 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:11.920 Kind of. 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:19.080 Let's say, Devin, there's something wrong with your car's transmission 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:21.760 and you don't know how to fix that. 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:22.240 I don't. 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:24.200 You've never seen, you've never tried in your life. 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:25.800 No, I don't know anything about cars. 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:29.240 Now, what if a mechanic called you on the phone. 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.160 You have all the tools and he's just walking you through. 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:34.880 I can barely watch a video and put something together. 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:37.120 Yeah, but no, Okay, if you don't fix it, it's 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:38.559 gonna explode and kill you. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.400 Okay, a little bit higher, I'm gonna try a little 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:41.920 bit harder. 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:44.000 I think you could fix it if he told you 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:46.800 exactly what to do. I think that doesn't mean his 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:47.880 job's easy. 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.240 You can only give me but so much guidance, but 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.320 at a certain point there's a lot of judgment also involved. 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:55.040 They can tell you what button the press, they can 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.280 tell you when to do something, but you are still 0:09:57.400 --> 0:09:58.320 flying a plane. 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:00.719 This isn't like putting something together. 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:02.720 Or taking something apart, right Like, this is a moving 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:06.000 vehicle in the sky, and there's a lot of things 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:06.680 that can go wrong. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:08.640 I think y'all are thinking of that is like, Okay, 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:12.480 you're putting together ikea furniture with like a blindfold, Like 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:13.000 can you do it? 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.520 I guess from my perspective from what little I do 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.920 know about these planes is it kind of is like 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.600 that more so than you know, uh, you know a 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.920 race car going around a crazy bend that is skill 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:28.559 based and like you need you need a very special. 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.520 Now we're talking like there's there's gonna be wind, there's 0:10:30.559 --> 0:10:32.400 gonna be things that I know we're not like putting 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:36.080 like something in the middle of the tarmac intentionally, but 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.480 like it's there's probably gonna be something happening that day 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:43.079 that you know, like even if you're driving a car, 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.520 right like if it's not raining, there's still you know, 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:47.719 like maybe there's a po hole. Maybe you know, it's 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:51.200 like there's always variable. Sure, yes, but there's a. 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:54.240 Reason that I'm assuming they know that and they're gonna 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:58.160 there's a reason why, like air traffic control doesn't just 0:10:58.240 --> 0:10:59.439 fly to planes. 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:01.920 Well we're it is that they're not in the plane. 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:04.079 There's a reason there's a pilot in the plane. 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:08.320 Yes, I'm not even saying that like in this transmission scenario, 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.000 you might have been able to fix it, but not 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:15.880 as good as the mechanic in this scenario with the plane. 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.120 I'm not saying real close to landing, I'm. 0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:21.200 Not saying everyone's gonna live or like maybe I don't 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.360 know if I'll do the landing wheel gears to come out, 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:25.440 maybe I'll fuck that part up. 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:27.959 I don't think killing a couple of people safely landing 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:28.560 that is. 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:30.600 Come on, there's two hundred other people on the plane. 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:31.760 It's a miracle. 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.679 Okay, So so I think that changes things a little bit. Though. 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:38.360 If you're saying I can get us. 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:40.439 On the ground, we're gonna get where everyone is gonna 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:41.400 live is very difficult. 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:44.080 We're gonna live there. 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:49.280 You're saying safely everyone everyone. People may get like some whiplash. 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.040 Or something more turbulent. 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:52.840 Probably, sure, I'm playing on getting the wheels out. 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.360 You can like, you know, one of the wheels fall 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:59.679 off or something like that. You can be in perfect condition. No, 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:00.520 you can. 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.360 Crash land, but everyone needs to be alive and be 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:04.720 able to like get off the plane. 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:06.720 I'm not talking like half the plane blows off. 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.600 Yeah, yeah, I know, the making it to the road. 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.880 Yeah, and I'm gonna have a parachute. So I'm I'm 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:15.280 in a little bit early. 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:20.640 But okay, so I think I need to try and 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:22.520 actually land a plane. 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:25.680 With your control. 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.240 Oh that's the run, right, I'm looking at this thing. 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.480 But first I'm going to talk to an expert. This 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.640 guy has studied overconfidence so much that he has an 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:37.280 effect named after him. 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:40.880 That's after the break. 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:41.560 What break? 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:44.440 We don't have any breaks? 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:45.800 Cool break? 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:51.560 The break is just music. Yeah, all right, we're back. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:52.880 I'm Anny Noah. 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:53.880 Okay. 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.760 Last time we were here, we debated whether Noah and 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.320 I could land a plane given instructions. 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.400 By or not. We debated whether all of us would 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:03.360 be able to land a plane. 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.920 Yeah, but it turned into me and Noah because you 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.480 decided that we were crazy. I interviewed this guy named 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:13.080 David Dunning. He's a psychology professor at the University of Michigan. 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:15.480 I went to Ohio State it, so I almost hung 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.079 up the call when I found that out. 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:18.360 But we let it slide. 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:23.000 David Dunning is the founder of this concept called the 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:24.400 Dunning Kruger effect. 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.400 Well, the Dunning Kruger effect, as it's come to be 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.800 known in popular culture, is the idea that those who 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:38.720 lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:44.360 they lack expertise. So they do quite badly in various skills, 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:47.200 but they think they're doing just fine until the world 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:50.240 really makes the lesson very very clear. 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:52.760 He's saying that these people don't even realize. I thought 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.560 it was like, Okay, I'm super confident at this thing. 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.199 I try to sing, thinking I'm going to be good 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:01.520 at it. But then as I'm doing it, maybe I realized, Okay, 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:03.760 you know, it's like we talked about, like playing. 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:04.640 Serena Williams and Tennis. 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:07.400 Obviously, that's an extreme example, but it's interesting that he 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.440 says the person doesn't even realize they're not good at 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.000 it even while or after doing it. 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:16.400 Yeah, that's like total oblivious y versus in the Plaine 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:21.120 scenario we're talking about saying I'll try this, yes, not 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.240 like maybe you're doing it and now the plane is 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:26.760 crashing and being like, oh this is fine. Yes, Like Devin, 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.160 you have to allow that's different than we're not that illusional. 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:29.640 Yeah. 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:31.520 Well, well, for our example is if you don't do 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:35.080 it while you die, versus like if it was like 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.360 you thought you were great at like painting or something. 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.800 I wondered whether it's a quote unquote good or quote 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:44.600 unquote bad thing to be overconfident in an area. 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.040 The way I like to think about it is if 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:52.480 you are a general and you're leading your troops to battle. Now, 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:57.160 the day before the invasion, you want to be very, 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:02.359 very under confident. You want to worry about every contingency, 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:06.680 every risk, everything that could go wrong, every devious scheme 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.240 the enemy might have, and prepare for it. You don't 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.720 want to be overconfident. You want to be diligent to 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:16.360 a fault. But then the day of the battle, you 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:19.840 want to be overconfident because you want to transmit to 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:23.240 your troops that this is the plan and we got 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.320 to go in because that's the way you're going to succeed. 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:30.960 So confidence and overconfidence is something that you manage. There 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:34.200 are times when it's good to be overconfident as long 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:39.720 as you're flexible, and there are times to be under confident. 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:42.920 But you have to know the difference of when you're 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:47.320 in the first situation versus the second situation. So that's 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:48.320 the way I think about it. 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.080 I think sports is the easiest example to think of, Like, 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:53.240 at some point you have to push yourself to try 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.920 to do something, or like even just working out or something. Right, 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.400 it's easy in like you know, X minutes into a 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:01.240 workout to be like, oh man, I'm really tired. I 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:03.760 don't want to do this last thing. Obviously you put 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.640 yourself that. It's the Peleton instructors screaming at you. You 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:08.840 feel better, like they promise you would. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.200 You would do it. It's not like yeah, I can 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:12.640 do it. 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.040 Yeah, So I mean shout out to them yeah. 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:17.920 And to try to kind of tie this to the 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.280 plane scenario, I guess he's saying it's bad that we're 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:23.520 confident before we're in they. 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:27.040 That's true right now. See he's saying basically you should 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:28.119 be mean, right now. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.000 Studying like what exactly? 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:35.080 Want to be prepared and measured, but when the emergency comes, 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:37.480 it is good to be confident. I rolled up the sleeves, 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:39.680 which is like the inverse of what we are. We're 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.400 confident before the emergency, and when the emergency happens, we're 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.320 nervous and can we do it? 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.200 Yeah, I'll be like, hey, captain, if you need a 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.280 few minutes off, just you know, I'm in Rose seventeen 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.240 back there, economy. 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:53.880 So the next thing we talked about was this kind 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:58.520 of breakdown between men and women, like the gender aspect 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.200 to this, because as as a reminder, men were way 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:06.159 more confident than women were in this specific question. 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:11.520 If something is identified with a gender, like sports with 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:15.399 men and still cooking with women, people will tend to 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:20.480 be overconfident and confident in the things that are identified 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:24.080 with their gender. That is one of the things that 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:28.840 produces is overconfidence. Is this preconceived notion you have about yourself. 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.200 So if you think you know everything your male, you're 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:35.280 just much more likely to think you know everything about 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.560 sports because you watch a lot of sports. It's not 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:40.680 as true as it used to be, but it still 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:44.640 is true. So men will be more confident and over 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:48.320 confident in what they know about sports than women. It'll 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:52.480 flip if you talk about something that's identified with being 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:52.879 a woman. 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.320 So it's not necessarily that women are just less confident 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.679 than men. It's that society gives women fewer things to 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:03.040 be confident about. So it's kind of a circular argument. 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:03.520 But right. 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:08.920 The next question I asked him was I just wanted 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.120 to get his thoughts on the survey. It's I think 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:16.600 thirty two percent of people feel somewhat to very confident 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:19.520 that they could land a plane in an emergency situation. 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:23.560 I just do you do you have any general reaction 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:23.879 to that. 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:30.720 I am completely struck with lack of surprise. Actually, that 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:34.120 sounds about right. There's a thing that happens when you're 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:39.520 distant from what you're considering. So if you're you're never 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.520 going to actually follow the plane, you're never going to 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:46.360 pay for overconfidence. So it's okay, and things may change 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:48.240 if you're actually on the plane. 0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:50.800 So pretty much every insight that he's had in this 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:55.520 interview goes against our confidence in landing a plane. 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.000 I can't argue with this guy. You know, this guy 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.439 sounds like he knows what he said. I guess I 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:04.600 still probably wouldn't change my answer at this I don't 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:04.840 think I. 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:07.800 Would either, But it's like, and you know, I'm learning more. 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:09.320 I don't know if that's necessarily I don't think that's 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:09.880 his point either. 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:09.920 No. 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.280 I think he's just like into how that's just how, Yeah, 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:13.680 it works. 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:15.760 This is just the way we all think about this. 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:20.760 It's just explaining why you are both so over confidence. 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:21.560 And why you shouldn't be. 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:24.440