Speaker 1: I'm Manny, I'm Noah, and this and this is no
Speaker 1: such thing a show where we settle our dumb arguments
Speaker 1: and yours by actually doing the research. On today's episode,
Speaker 1: we explore the concept of confidence, and more specifically, over confidence.
Speaker 1: As I attempt to do something I have absolutely no
Speaker 1: business attempting. There's no such thing, no such thing, such thing.
Speaker 2: So there's a survey that's gone around. It came out
Speaker 2: early last year. And here's the question, and then I'll
Speaker 2: ask for your answers. This is from you Gov. The
Speaker 2: question is how confident are you that you could safely
Speaker 2: land a passenger airplane in an emergency situation, relying only
Speaker 2: on the assistance of air traffic control. And you can
Speaker 2: answer very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident, not at
Speaker 2: all confident, or not sure.
Speaker 1: And this is you're not You're not landing it by
Speaker 1: yourself like someone what it is?
Speaker 3: Okay, I would probably say not very confident to not
Speaker 3: at all. I'm somewhere between there.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty confident I could land very yeah, I think
Speaker 1: somewhere between someone and very confident. If someone's giving me instructions,
Speaker 1: I think I think I could do it.
Speaker 2: I think that's how I feel too, So you both
Speaker 2: think that, I'd say very.
Speaker 4: I think very between.
Speaker 3: Someone and when you're an airplane, you either land it
Speaker 3: or everyone dies, so there's a lot of pressure.
Speaker 1: I'm not just I think that's helping me, though, I.
Speaker 5: Think that's definitely hurting. It's not just like you know,
Speaker 5: if you don't land it, everything's cool.
Speaker 3: Like even think about like my first time driving a car,
Speaker 3: I was so nervous with the driving instructor, and the
Speaker 3: stakes are so much lower.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess from what I understand of landing planes,
Speaker 2: which isn't much, but it just seems like because of
Speaker 2: the way planes are set up, it's all just like.
Speaker 5: Is this this is a commercial plane?
Speaker 4: Passenger airplane?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's like a commercial So I'm assuming.
Speaker 5: Y'all think ya could land of bowing.
Speaker 2: That's easier. I'm saying, I think that would be easier
Speaker 2: than a small little plane where it's like, okay, like
Speaker 2: because these planes have so many buttons, it seems like
Speaker 2: it's mostly kind of automatically setting up.
Speaker 4: A lot of them are automated.
Speaker 3: Ye are confused, Okay, once they're in the sky, landing
Speaker 3: and takeoff are still done. By pilots. It's it's like
Speaker 3: a random person can't just take off, yeah, but maybe.
Speaker 1: Landing and takeoff or done by pilots. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, I think we're imagining them like having some
Speaker 1: kind of like steering wheel where they're turning. They're like
Speaker 1: typing in numbers that make the plane.
Speaker 3: No, but they're pulling and pushing for see you don't
Speaker 3: even you bet you better.
Speaker 5: Do some research.
Speaker 4: They're pulling the throttle.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well how high and low the plane?
Speaker 2: There's some yeah, but like the moment again, this this
Speaker 2: person in air traffic control has all these numbers and
Speaker 2: they're saying like, okay, pull this.
Speaker 4: It's just exactly I'm not even yes.
Speaker 5: Sorry, that is insane.
Speaker 3: The fact that you would have hundreds of people on
Speaker 3: this plane, you have never flown a plane in your
Speaker 3: life before, and both of you think that, yeah, I
Speaker 3: could probably do that. Have you been on a plane
Speaker 3: when people claping you land? Yeah, that's someone who does
Speaker 3: this like every day of their lives. Like there's a
Speaker 3: plane is weird.
Speaker 4: It's not like, okay that.
Speaker 3: Flying a plane is not just something that anyone can do.
Speaker 2: Anyone could do it, probably, we just don't because there's
Speaker 2: not that many planes. I mean.
Speaker 6: A man.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't look, I don't even like I think
Speaker 3: that that's crazy. I think most people shouldn't even be
Speaker 3: allowed to drive.
Speaker 1: Does the survey say what percentage of people think they
Speaker 1: can do it?
Speaker 2: I can read you the results. Okay, yeah, so this
Speaker 2: is for all people that answered. Very confident is thirteen percent. Okay,
Speaker 2: Somewhat confident is nineteen percent. Not very confident is seventeen percent.
Speaker 2: Not at all confident is forty two percent.
Speaker 5: Okay, So most people are normal.
Speaker 4: And not sure is nine percent.
Speaker 1: So combine that the somewhat and very confident numbers. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that would be nineteen plus thirteen thirty two. So thirty
Speaker 1: two percent of people, thirty two percent of all people. Yeah,
Speaker 1: all people crazy. This is the weird part. I don't
Speaker 1: think thirty two percent of people could safely land one
Speaker 1: in three people, but I believe.
Speaker 4: That I could.
Speaker 1: Are you a good driver, Yeah, I'm a great driver.
Speaker 4: I liver pizza.
Speaker 5: What the hell to do it? Because some of the
Speaker 5: worst drivers I know liver pizza.
Speaker 1: You have to be able to weave around traffic. You
Speaker 1: want to get there on time. You have to know
Speaker 1: how to parallel park.
Speaker 2: And you don't need to do that with a plane.
Speaker 2: The runway is clear.
Speaker 3: But you said you don't think that thirty people could
Speaker 3: do that, right.
Speaker 5: You think that land the plane? You know you're you're
Speaker 5: built different, you can do different.
Speaker 3: I'm not at all confident. I think if I landed
Speaker 3: the plane, it would be a miracle.
Speaker 2: Well, it would be a miracle for any of us
Speaker 2: to do it. That I agree with, Yeah, but not
Speaker 2: really hard. Well but actually, yeah, how is.
Speaker 5: It a miracle? Both of you feel like you could get.
Speaker 2: Because the miracles out here daily just because it's an emergency.
Speaker 2: Just look, every day is a miracle while we're here.
Speaker 1: I treat every day why I wake up as a miracle,
Speaker 1: thinking very much every heart. I think the reason why
Speaker 1: I feel like it'd be it would be a miracles
Speaker 1: like the just think of the headline. Guys never flown
Speaker 1: the plane before lands Yeah, and that plane. That's my
Speaker 1: point on these very specific instructions given to him.
Speaker 2: Yes through the headphones, So this.
Speaker 5: Not too long ago, but it was a small plane.
Speaker 5: The man with a career in flooring sales explains how
Speaker 5: we became impromptu pilot when the real pilot passed out
Speaker 5: of the controls.
Speaker 7: They reached over his body because he's at this point unresponsive,
Speaker 7: and slowly started to pull back on the stick and turn.
Speaker 7: How did you know how to do that? Just common sense,
Speaker 7: I guess being on airplanes.
Speaker 3: And the guy had flown like hundreds of times before
Speaker 3: and he was able to land the plane. But it
Speaker 3: was a smaller plane. He had been in the small planes.
Speaker 3: You see what the guy is doing all the time.
Speaker 3: Neither one of you ever been in a cockpit, and
Speaker 3: you think you can be in a small plane.
Speaker 4: I've been in a cockpit just to like say hi
Speaker 4: to the pilot. But I've also played.
Speaker 2: Ace Combat multiple games in that series.
Speaker 4: Yeah, have you ever heard of Star Fox? So by gender,
Speaker 4: this is how it breaks down.
Speaker 2: So for very confident, which was thirteen percent of all people,
Speaker 2: it's male twenty percent and female seven percent.
Speaker 5: Yep, ladies got their mind right.
Speaker 1: So they need to feel more confident about society that unfortunately,
Speaker 1: you know, ladies are pushed down.
Speaker 4: Guys are confidence. Sky is the limit queens.
Speaker 3: I think I think this is a classic case of
Speaker 3: guys just thinking they can do shit that they can't.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, it's a bad thing that women don't
Speaker 2: feel more confident women are not. It's not a detriment
Speaker 2: to me. I wish everyone was answering that they're very
Speaker 2: I was on a.
Speaker 1: Plane and the pilot passed out. I wish men and
Speaker 1: women stood up to volunteer to play play.
Speaker 2: And I would also say I would probably prefer a
Speaker 2: confident women to take that.
Speaker 1: I fully believe that like men in general are too
Speaker 1: like over confident about things. But I think this specific
Speaker 1: I think this specific question is different though, because you
Speaker 1: are you aren't relying on yourself. You're relying on a
Speaker 1: professional who knows how to land a plan.
Speaker 3: But you're you are the person who is at the
Speaker 3: end of the day, going to be responsible for whether
Speaker 3: or not you live or die.
Speaker 2: When I fail and the you know, it's on the
Speaker 2: cover of the newspaper the next day, they're not going
Speaker 2: to be like this guy thought he could do it.
Speaker 2: We gave him perfect instructions and he messed up. They'd
Speaker 2: be like brave hero, Yeah, gave it a shot, tried
Speaker 2: his best, and he was the only one who could.
Speaker 5: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: I think the point that it's not easy is the
Speaker 3: issue with guys period.
Speaker 5: If it were easy, then who would care?
Speaker 3: Right, Guys think that they can do impossible stuff all
Speaker 3: the time and have confidence, unearned confidence, And I think
Speaker 3: that's what what's happening here. Why Why do you think
Speaker 3: that you can land on a plan you have no
Speaker 3: experience with related in your life.
Speaker 1: Because the thing you're bringing up about unearned confidence, I
Speaker 1: don't think it fully applies to this. Because someone is
Speaker 1: holding your hand through the problem.
Speaker 4: I don't think you need a super high IQ to
Speaker 4: do that.
Speaker 5: So y'all are both saying that this is not that
Speaker 5: hard of a thing to do. Period.
Speaker 4: Kind of.
Speaker 1: Let's say, Devin, there's something wrong with your car's transmission
Speaker 1: and you don't know how to fix that.
Speaker 5: I don't.
Speaker 1: You've never seen, you've never tried in your life.
Speaker 5: No, I don't know anything about cars.
Speaker 1: Now, what if a mechanic called you on the phone.
Speaker 1: You have all the tools and he's just walking you through.
Speaker 5: I can barely watch a video and put something together.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but no, Okay, if you don't fix it, it's
Speaker 1: gonna explode and kill you.
Speaker 5: Okay, a little bit higher, I'm gonna try a little
Speaker 5: bit harder.
Speaker 1: I think you could fix it if he told you
Speaker 1: exactly what to do. I think that doesn't mean his
Speaker 1: job's easy.
Speaker 3: You can only give me but so much guidance, but
Speaker 3: at a certain point there's a lot of judgment also involved.
Speaker 3: They can tell you what button the press, they can
Speaker 3: tell you when to do something, but you are still
Speaker 3: flying a plane.
Speaker 5: This isn't like putting something together.
Speaker 3: Or taking something apart, right Like, this is a moving
Speaker 3: vehicle in the sky, and there's a lot of things
Speaker 3: that can go wrong.
Speaker 5: I think y'all are thinking of that is like, Okay,
Speaker 5: you're putting together ikea furniture with like a blindfold, Like
Speaker 5: can you do it?
Speaker 2: I guess from my perspective from what little I do
Speaker 2: know about these planes is it kind of is like
Speaker 2: that more so than you know, uh, you know a
Speaker 2: race car going around a crazy bend that is skill
Speaker 2: based and like you need you need a very special.
Speaker 3: Now we're talking like there's there's gonna be wind, there's
Speaker 3: gonna be things that I know we're not like putting
Speaker 3: like something in the middle of the tarmac intentionally, but
Speaker 3: like it's there's probably gonna be something happening that day
Speaker 3: that you know, like even if you're driving a car,
Speaker 3: right like if it's not raining, there's still you know,
Speaker 3: like maybe there's a po hole. Maybe you know, it's
Speaker 3: like there's always variable. Sure, yes, but there's a.
Speaker 2: Reason that I'm assuming they know that and they're gonna
Speaker 2: there's a reason why, like air traffic control doesn't just
Speaker 2: fly to planes.
Speaker 4: Well we're it is that they're not in the plane.
Speaker 5: There's a reason there's a pilot in the plane.
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm not even saying that like in this transmission scenario,
Speaker 1: you might have been able to fix it, but not
Speaker 1: as good as the mechanic in this scenario with the plane.
Speaker 5: I'm not saying real close to landing, I'm.
Speaker 1: Not saying everyone's gonna live or like maybe I don't
Speaker 1: know if I'll do the landing wheel gears to come out,
Speaker 1: maybe I'll fuck that part up.
Speaker 5: I don't think killing a couple of people safely landing
Speaker 5: that is.
Speaker 1: Come on, there's two hundred other people on the plane.
Speaker 4: It's a miracle.
Speaker 5: Okay, So so I think that changes things a little bit. Though.
Speaker 5: If you're saying I can get us.
Speaker 3: On the ground, we're gonna get where everyone is gonna
Speaker 3: live is very difficult.
Speaker 4: We're gonna live there.
Speaker 3: You're saying safely everyone everyone. People may get like some whiplash.
Speaker 4: Or something more turbulent.
Speaker 2: Probably, sure, I'm playing on getting the wheels out.
Speaker 5: You can like, you know, one of the wheels fall
Speaker 5: off or something like that. You can be in perfect condition. No,
Speaker 5: you can.
Speaker 3: Crash land, but everyone needs to be alive and be
Speaker 3: able to like get off the plane.
Speaker 5: I'm not talking like half the plane blows off.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I know, the making it to the road.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm gonna have a parachute. So I'm I'm
Speaker 2: in a little bit early.
Speaker 1: But okay, so I think I need to try and
Speaker 1: actually land a plane.
Speaker 8: With your control.
Speaker 1: Oh that's the run, right, I'm looking at this thing.
Speaker 1: But first I'm going to talk to an expert. This
Speaker 1: guy has studied overconfidence so much that he has an
Speaker 1: effect named after him.
Speaker 2: That's after the break.
Speaker 4: What break?
Speaker 2: We don't have any breaks?
Speaker 4: Cool break?
Speaker 1: The break is just music. Yeah, all right, we're back.
Speaker 4: I'm Anny Noah.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: Last time we were here, we debated whether Noah and
Speaker 1: I could land a plane given instructions.
Speaker 5: By or not. We debated whether all of us would
Speaker 5: be able to land a plane.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it turned into me and Noah because you
Speaker 1: decided that we were crazy. I interviewed this guy named
Speaker 1: David Dunning. He's a psychology professor at the University of Michigan.
Speaker 1: I went to Ohio State it, so I almost hung
Speaker 1: up the call when I found that out.
Speaker 4: But we let it slide.
Speaker 1: David Dunning is the founder of this concept called the
Speaker 1: Dunning Kruger effect.
Speaker 8: Well, the Dunning Kruger effect, as it's come to be
Speaker 8: known in popular culture, is the idea that those who
Speaker 8: lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that
Speaker 8: they lack expertise. So they do quite badly in various skills,
Speaker 8: but they think they're doing just fine until the world
Speaker 8: really makes the lesson very very clear.
Speaker 3: He's saying that these people don't even realize. I thought
Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, I'm super confident at this thing.
Speaker 3: I try to sing, thinking I'm going to be good
Speaker 3: at it. But then as I'm doing it, maybe I realized, Okay,
Speaker 3: you know, it's like we talked about, like playing.
Speaker 5: Serena Williams and Tennis.
Speaker 3: Obviously, that's an extreme example, but it's interesting that he
Speaker 3: says the person doesn't even realize they're not good at
Speaker 3: it even while or after doing it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's like total oblivious y versus in the Plaine
Speaker 2: scenario we're talking about saying I'll try this, yes, not
Speaker 2: like maybe you're doing it and now the plane is
Speaker 2: crashing and being like, oh this is fine. Yes, Like Devin,
Speaker 2: you have to allow that's different than we're not that illusional.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, well, for our example is if you don't do
Speaker 3: it while you die, versus like if it was like
Speaker 3: you thought you were great at like painting or something.
Speaker 1: I wondered whether it's a quote unquote good or quote
Speaker 1: unquote bad thing to be overconfident in an area.
Speaker 8: The way I like to think about it is if
Speaker 8: you are a general and you're leading your troops to battle. Now,
Speaker 8: the day before the invasion, you want to be very,
Speaker 8: very under confident. You want to worry about every contingency,
Speaker 8: every risk, everything that could go wrong, every devious scheme
Speaker 8: the enemy might have, and prepare for it. You don't
Speaker 8: want to be overconfident. You want to be diligent to
Speaker 8: a fault. But then the day of the battle, you
Speaker 8: want to be overconfident because you want to transmit to
Speaker 8: your troops that this is the plan and we got
Speaker 8: to go in because that's the way you're going to succeed.
Speaker 8: So confidence and overconfidence is something that you manage. There
Speaker 8: are times when it's good to be overconfident as long
Speaker 8: as you're flexible, and there are times to be under confident.
Speaker 8: But you have to know the difference of when you're
Speaker 8: in the first situation versus the second situation. So that's
Speaker 8: the way I think about it.
Speaker 2: I think sports is the easiest example to think of, Like,
Speaker 2: at some point you have to push yourself to try
Speaker 2: to do something, or like even just working out or something. Right,
Speaker 2: it's easy in like you know, X minutes into a
Speaker 2: workout to be like, oh man, I'm really tired. I
Speaker 2: don't want to do this last thing. Obviously you put
Speaker 2: yourself that. It's the Peleton instructors screaming at you. You
Speaker 2: feel better, like they promise you would.
Speaker 5: You would do it. It's not like yeah, I can
Speaker 5: do it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean shout out to them yeah.
Speaker 1: And to try to kind of tie this to the
Speaker 1: plane scenario, I guess he's saying it's bad that we're
Speaker 1: confident before we're in they.
Speaker 3: That's true right now. See he's saying basically you should
Speaker 3: be mean, right now.
Speaker 2: Studying like what exactly?
Speaker 1: Want to be prepared and measured, but when the emergency comes,
Speaker 1: it is good to be confident. I rolled up the sleeves,
Speaker 1: which is like the inverse of what we are. We're
Speaker 1: confident before the emergency, and when the emergency happens, we're
Speaker 1: nervous and can we do it?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be like, hey, captain, if you need a
Speaker 2: few minutes off, just you know, I'm in Rose seventeen
Speaker 2: back there, economy.
Speaker 1: So the next thing we talked about was this kind
Speaker 1: of breakdown between men and women, like the gender aspect
Speaker 1: to this, because as as a reminder, men were way
Speaker 1: more confident than women were in this specific question.
Speaker 8: If something is identified with a gender, like sports with
Speaker 8: men and still cooking with women, people will tend to
Speaker 8: be overconfident and confident in the things that are identified
Speaker 8: with their gender. That is one of the things that
Speaker 8: produces is overconfidence. Is this preconceived notion you have about yourself.
Speaker 8: So if you think you know everything your male, you're
Speaker 8: just much more likely to think you know everything about
Speaker 8: sports because you watch a lot of sports. It's not
Speaker 8: as true as it used to be, but it still
Speaker 8: is true. So men will be more confident and over
Speaker 8: confident in what they know about sports than women. It'll
Speaker 8: flip if you talk about something that's identified with being
Speaker 8: a woman.
Speaker 2: So it's not necessarily that women are just less confident
Speaker 2: than men. It's that society gives women fewer things to
Speaker 2: be confident about. So it's kind of a circular argument.
Speaker 5: But right.
Speaker 1: The next question I asked him was I just wanted
Speaker 1: to get his thoughts on the survey. It's I think
Speaker 1: thirty two percent of people feel somewhat to very confident
Speaker 1: that they could land a plane in an emergency situation.
Speaker 1: I just do you do you have any general reaction
Speaker 1: to that.
Speaker 8: I am completely struck with lack of surprise. Actually, that
Speaker 8: sounds about right. There's a thing that happens when you're
Speaker 8: distant from what you're considering. So if you're you're never
Speaker 8: going to actually follow the plane, you're never going to
Speaker 8: pay for overconfidence. So it's okay, and things may change
Speaker 8: if you're actually on the plane.
Speaker 1: So pretty much every insight that he's had in this
Speaker 1: interview goes against our confidence in landing a plane.
Speaker 2: I can't argue with this guy. You know, this guy
Speaker 2: sounds like he knows what he said. I guess I
Speaker 2: still probably wouldn't change my answer at this I don't
Speaker 2: think I.
Speaker 4: Would either, But it's like, and you know, I'm learning more.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's necessarily I don't think that's
Speaker 2: his point either.
Speaker 1: No.
Speaker 2: I think he's just like into how that's just how, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it works.
Speaker 4: This is just the way we all think about this.
Speaker 3: It's just explaining why you are both so over confidence.
Speaker 5: And why you shouldn't be.
Speaker 2: And it is easy to feel that way now obviously.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because you're not on a plane falling out of
Speaker 3: the sky here, and you're not in a scenario where
Speaker 3: you possibly would be.
Speaker 1: Now, I had one more question for him. If you
Speaker 1: were given instruction by an air traffic controller, do you
Speaker 1: think you could land a plane in an emergency situation?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 8: Absolutely not. I react too slow, over I overthink. I
Speaker 8: mean people think that people are answering because of self puffery,
Speaker 8: But really what it is is they don't know everything
Speaker 8: that's going to happen. They have no idea, and but
Speaker 8: they but in that they have some idea. Well, there's
Speaker 8: a little steering wheel, and you just do the steering wheel.
Speaker 8: It's like video game, video games, yeah, so they have.
Speaker 1: You're doing a great impression of me. Yeah, so he
Speaker 1: kind of cooked me at the end there. I just
Speaker 1: found it so interesting to to understand a little bit better,
Speaker 1: like why we thought the way that we thought, and
Speaker 1: why we think the way that we find present tense
Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, I think we
Speaker 1: still maybe I'm going to go from like very confident
Speaker 1: to somewhat confident after learning why I think this way.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 1: Obviously, testing out this Yuga of survey question in real
Speaker 1: life would be illegal.
Speaker 2: I think I'm assuming.
Speaker 5: I don't think what we did it we got many
Speaker 5: on a plane.
Speaker 9: Yeah, the emergency situation, We pushed the yeah you've you've
Speaker 9: probably been hearing about these little Boeing incidents, and that's
Speaker 9: trying to get this ready.
Speaker 2: One of the doors falls.
Speaker 1: We're just trying to make a really good podcast. So
Speaker 1: we can't actually do this experiment in real life, but
Speaker 1: we did the next best thing, which is a flight simulator.
Speaker 1: So the three of us went to a place called
Speaker 1: Manhattan Flight Club in Midtown, New York City, and we
Speaker 1: linked up with a pilot named Taylor loosely uh, and
Speaker 1: we decided to try and play out this scenario as
Speaker 1: close as we as close as we could get it
Speaker 1: to the scenario and the yuga of survey question. So
Speaker 1: we get to the Manhattan Flight Club and then we
Speaker 1: get in, we meet Taylor and he takes us to
Speaker 1: the actual simulator. This was a chair at a desk
Speaker 1: and it had like two big monitors. But it was
Speaker 1: legit like they had like all these controls.
Speaker 4: Yeah, had all the opponents.
Speaker 5: He said it was FCC whatever, right.
Speaker 2: You mean FAA certified.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Taylor, who was so kind to help us out
Speaker 1: with this and so patient because we had the dumbest
Speaker 1: questions ever. He is not an air traffic controller and
Speaker 1: so he's he's just a pilot and he knows how
Speaker 1: to pilot these smaller aircrafts. And so it's worth noting
Speaker 1: before we listen to the tape that the simulation we
Speaker 1: were running it was not a simulation of a passenger
Speaker 1: commercial jet. The simulation is a smaller aircraft. So yeah,
Speaker 1: let's take a listen to the to me trying to
Speaker 1: land a plane in an emergency.
Speaker 4: All right, this is Manny.
Speaker 1: I'm here with Noah and Devin at the Manhattan Flight
Speaker 1: Club flight simulator. I'm looking at this kind of monstrous
Speaker 1: set up here, and I will say I'm a little
Speaker 1: less confident than I was when we first recorded.
Speaker 4: So yeah, let's do this.
Speaker 1: Are you I'm hearing the voice, but I know I
Speaker 1: don't know how to respond to the voice.
Speaker 10: Fude, early, Are you in an emergency joint? Hor Fox Stago?
Speaker 5: Yes, please respond.
Speaker 1: Okay, here's I'm gonna try this, Mark Fox or Tango.
Speaker 10: There's a pilot in compation. I look for a red
Speaker 10: button on your control to talk to us.
Speaker 8: Oh, there should be a red button on your control wheel.
Speaker 1: Oh shit, okay, hello, can you hear me more?
Speaker 8: Fox Shartano, I heard your trade point.
Speaker 5: Are you a flight out of control?
Speaker 1: I'm only technically a pilot, but I've never flun playing before.
Speaker 1: Our our pilot had some kind of emergency and now
Speaker 1: I'm at the meal.
Speaker 10: Mor Fox Hupano, Roger had a declared emergency and you
Speaker 10: get it.
Speaker 5: Help you get to the runway.
Speaker 10: Thank com and we're going to figure it out together again.
Speaker 4: That sounds great. This is thank you, Thank you so much.
Speaker 10: Poor Fox. Are you able to he uh what looks
Speaker 10: like a comment per south east and some other numbers
Speaker 10: on one of the dials in front of you.
Speaker 4: Yes, the dial on the top has that we're wanting
Speaker 4: you do to churn.
Speaker 6: Now, are you able to earn right and the.
Speaker 10: Letter as you see on the dial.
Speaker 4: Yes, I'll try it.
Speaker 5: You'll have to stop your care now.
Speaker 10: Finger to stop the churn much the control of last
Speaker 10: for functioning.
Speaker 2: You're doing good. You're towards the final approach path of
Speaker 2: the runway.
Speaker 8: Here we go ahead and verify that, just so we
Speaker 8: can see you.
Speaker 10: Your waiting light is on.
Speaker 1: Here's one problem I see if I go suppress it,
Speaker 1: but I'm then not on the steering wheel for function.
Speaker 10: Thing I understand.
Speaker 2: Go ahead and announce her and one to one five.
Speaker 4: To look on the other side of the letter.
Speaker 5: Ask Okay, your leftern.
Speaker 10: Is hooking in a turning laps on the stream.
Speaker 5: Here, go ahead and reduce that throttle.
Speaker 1: If by about a quarter of an inch.
Speaker 4: If we're gonna start your data, head here to help
Speaker 4: you out. Okay, I'm just trying to balance.
Speaker 5: I do love that.
Speaker 3: Sometimes may ask as if these are suggestions, I'll get
Speaker 3: to it.
Speaker 8: You might be able to at the point to slightly
Speaker 8: court the runway with your control than what you see.
Speaker 5: Oh, that's the runway. I'm looking at this thing.
Speaker 10: If you can see anything that could we flap.
Speaker 4: We might have to go without the flaps. I don't
Speaker 4: see the flaps, but poor.
Speaker 10: Fox here to be the perfect for a final approach
Speaker 10: in the landing. Grab itrontal and flowing pullet all the way.
Speaker 8: Back toward you.
Speaker 10: Okay, you go ahead, and flowing point up to push
Speaker 10: the lab.
Speaker 4: Let's go.
Speaker 1: So yeah, fuck all the haters. I landed the goddamn plane.
Speaker 1: It was obviously a lot rockier than I thought it
Speaker 1: was going to be, but I did it.
Speaker 3: So now, after having done the simulation, do you say,
Speaker 3: do you think that you feel more or less confident
Speaker 3: than beforehand about your the probability of you successfully landing
Speaker 3: an actual plane.
Speaker 1: What I learned was that Number one pretty good at this.
Speaker 2: I think I'm pretty good at Like now you must
Speaker 2: be more confident.
Speaker 1: Well, here's the tricky part. The reason why I'm not
Speaker 1: more confident is because obvious it goes without saying, this
Speaker 1: is a much different scenario than in real life, and
Speaker 1: of course we knew that going into it. But like
Speaker 1: sitting in the chair, seeing all the controls, doing everything
Speaker 1: he was telling me to do, I'm still confident that
Speaker 1: I could do this, but I now have more respect
Speaker 1: for like how hard it acts.
Speaker 2: Actually is just the.
Speaker 1: Overwhelming amount of numbers and dials and controls and switches
Speaker 1: and levers and buttons that are sitting in front of
Speaker 1: you are so overwhelming that, like, and I know that.
Speaker 4: Taylor are fake.
Speaker 1: Air traffic control guy was saying exactly what to do.
Speaker 1: But when he says, press the red button, Yeah, there's
Speaker 1: fifty red buttons.
Speaker 4: Yeah, like it, it was very hard to get. It's
Speaker 4: not necessarily labeled so clearly because.
Speaker 1: This scenario, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Like here's the one you really need.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 1: The other reason I'm probably a little less confident is this,
Speaker 1: So like after the experiment, I emailed Taylor to try
Speaker 1: and tell us what the differences between that aircraft we
Speaker 1: did in the simulator versus a real like passenger jet
Speaker 1: that would have like two hundred people on it. There
Speaker 1: are two key differences. One is that it's even obviously
Speaker 1: it's even more complex the controls on a bigger flight. However,
Speaker 1: he noted that in this emergency scenario, you would be
Speaker 1: ignoring ninety.
Speaker 2: Percent of the controls on the plane.
Speaker 5: Yeah, but more stuff to look at.
Speaker 1: There's more, there's more stuff you have to get through,
Speaker 1: so that's hard. The second part is pretty detrimental. The
Speaker 1: speed of the aircraft. Our aircraft was going and landing
Speaker 1: at around seventy knots.
Speaker 4: Do I know what that means?
Speaker 5: No?
Speaker 1: OK, but a passenger jet goes at one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty to one hundred and fifty knots. So essentially I'd
Speaker 1: be doing that simulation at twice the speed. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: and that just gives you so much fewer minutes.
Speaker 2: How much time to mess around reaction.
Speaker 1: Time is in the simulation. You could we were really
Speaker 1: slowly going back and.
Speaker 2: Forth to continue to correct everything, you know, removing this
Speaker 2: from the very specific plane scenario. I think this is
Speaker 2: you know, I definitely think about using confidence, you know,
Speaker 2: in my kind of regular life, and like how I
Speaker 2: actually can use it to my advantage.
Speaker 5: Using confidence as a tool.
Speaker 3: I think it's like an interesting takeaway, intentional, being more
Speaker 3: intentional about using confidence in that way. Although I feel
Speaker 3: like sometimes you just can't control it, you know, I
Speaker 3: can't control the fact that I don't think I could
Speaker 3: land that planning.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah you can't, Yeah you can't necessarily, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: that way I'm too real, you know, too honest.
Speaker 1: Well, the other part of the Dunning Kruger effect is
Speaker 1: people who are not confident when they should be. So
Speaker 1: maybe you can't land a plane.
Speaker 6: I get a little bit nervous I get on a plane.
Speaker 6: I have this version where everyone's screaming out there, lovers,
Speaker 6: and then I think of my mother's come on with
Speaker 6: the flames. Nothing ever Happens.
Speaker 1: No Such Thing is produced by Manny Fidel, Noah Friedman
Speaker 1: and Devin Joseph. The theme song is by me Manny.
Speaker 1: This song is Nothing Ever Happens by Darryl Ron. Our
Speaker 1: guest this week was David Dunning. Thanks to our friends
Speaker 1: for their notes, Julia Lindsay and Mia de Graf, and
Speaker 1: visit No Such Thing Dot Show to see our setup
Speaker 1: for the flight simulator.
Speaker 6: As it ever happens.
Speaker 1: Next week on No Such Thing, the Return of Slurs.
Speaker 1: I couldn't understand the power of these words until they
Speaker 1: use them against Lebron James