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Speaker 1: I'm Manny, I'm Noah, and this and this is no

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Speaker 1: such thing a show where we settle our dumb arguments

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Speaker 1: and yours by actually doing the research. On today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we explore the concept of confidence, and more specifically, over confidence.

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Speaker 1: As I attempt to do something I have absolutely no

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Speaker 1: business attempting. There's no such thing, no such thing, such thing.

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Speaker 2: So there's a survey that's gone around. It came out

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Speaker 2: early last year. And here's the question, and then I'll

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Speaker 2: ask for your answers. This is from you Gov. The

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Speaker 2: question is how confident are you that you could safely

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Speaker 2: land a passenger airplane in an emergency situation, relying only

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Speaker 2: on the assistance of air traffic control. And you can

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Speaker 2: answer very confident, somewhat confident, not very confident, not at

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Speaker 2: all confident, or not sure.

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Speaker 1: And this is you're not You're not landing it by

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Speaker 1: yourself like someone what it is?

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Speaker 3: Okay, I would probably say not very confident to not

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Speaker 3: at all. I'm somewhere between there.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty confident I could land very yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: somewhere between someone and very confident. If someone's giving me instructions,

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Speaker 1: I think I think I could do it.

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Speaker 2: I think that's how I feel too, So you both

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Speaker 2: think that, I'd say very.

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Speaker 4: I think very between.

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Speaker 3: Someone and when you're an airplane, you either land it

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Speaker 3: or everyone dies, so there's a lot of pressure.

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Speaker 1: I'm not just I think that's helping me, though, I.

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Speaker 5: Think that's definitely hurting. It's not just like you know,

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Speaker 5: if you don't land it, everything's cool.

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Speaker 3: Like even think about like my first time driving a car,

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Speaker 3: I was so nervous with the driving instructor, and the

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Speaker 3: stakes are so much lower.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess from what I understand of landing planes,

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Speaker 2: which isn't much, but it just seems like because of

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Speaker 2: the way planes are set up, it's all just like.

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Speaker 5: Is this this is a commercial plane?

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Speaker 4: Passenger airplane?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's like a commercial So I'm assuming.

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Speaker 5: Y'all think ya could land of bowing.

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Speaker 2: That's easier. I'm saying, I think that would be easier

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Speaker 2: than a small little plane where it's like, okay, like

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Speaker 2: because these planes have so many buttons, it seems like

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Speaker 2: it's mostly kind of automatically setting up.

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Speaker 4: A lot of them are automated.

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Speaker 3: Ye are confused, Okay, once they're in the sky, landing

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Speaker 3: and takeoff are still done. By pilots. It's it's like

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Speaker 3: a random person can't just take off, yeah, but maybe.

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Speaker 1: Landing and takeoff or done by pilots. But at the

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Speaker 1: same time, I think we're imagining them like having some

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Speaker 1: kind of like steering wheel where they're turning. They're like

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Speaker 1: typing in numbers that make the plane.

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Speaker 3: No, but they're pulling and pushing for see you don't

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Speaker 3: even you bet you better.

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Speaker 5: Do some research.

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Speaker 4: They're pulling the throttle.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well how high and low the plane?

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Speaker 2: There's some yeah, but like the moment again, this this

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Speaker 2: person in air traffic control has all these numbers and

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Speaker 2: they're saying like, okay, pull this.

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Speaker 4: It's just exactly I'm not even yes.

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Speaker 5: Sorry, that is insane.

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Speaker 3: The fact that you would have hundreds of people on

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Speaker 3: this plane, you have never flown a plane in your

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Speaker 3: life before, and both of you think that, yeah, I

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Speaker 3: could probably do that. Have you been on a plane

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Speaker 3: when people claping you land? Yeah, that's someone who does

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Speaker 3: this like every day of their lives. Like there's a

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Speaker 3: plane is weird.

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Speaker 4: It's not like, okay that.

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Speaker 3: Flying a plane is not just something that anyone can do.

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Speaker 2: Anyone could do it, probably, we just don't because there's

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Speaker 2: not that many planes. I mean.

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Speaker 6: A man.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't look, I don't even like I think

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Speaker 3: that that's crazy. I think most people shouldn't even be

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Speaker 3: allowed to drive.

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Speaker 1: Does the survey say what percentage of people think they

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Speaker 1: can do it?

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Speaker 2: I can read you the results. Okay, yeah, so this

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Speaker 2: is for all people that answered. Very confident is thirteen percent. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Somewhat confident is nineteen percent. Not very confident is seventeen percent.

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Speaker 2: Not at all confident is forty two percent.

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Speaker 5: Okay, So most people are normal.

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Speaker 4: And not sure is nine percent.

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Speaker 1: So combine that the somewhat and very confident numbers. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that would be nineteen plus thirteen thirty two. So thirty

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Speaker 1: two percent of people, thirty two percent of all people. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: all people crazy. This is the weird part. I don't

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Speaker 1: think thirty two percent of people could safely land one

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Speaker 1: in three people, but I believe.

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Speaker 4: That I could.

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Speaker 1: Are you a good driver, Yeah, I'm a great driver.

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Speaker 4: I liver pizza.

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Speaker 5: What the hell to do it? Because some of the

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Speaker 5: worst drivers I know liver pizza.

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Speaker 1: You have to be able to weave around traffic. You

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Speaker 1: want to get there on time. You have to know

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Speaker 1: how to parallel park.

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Speaker 2: And you don't need to do that with a plane.

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Speaker 2: The runway is clear.

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Speaker 3: But you said you don't think that thirty people could

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Speaker 3: do that, right.

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Speaker 5: You think that land the plane? You know you're you're

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Speaker 5: built different, you can do different.

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Speaker 3: I'm not at all confident. I think if I landed

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Speaker 3: the plane, it would be a miracle.

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Speaker 2: Well, it would be a miracle for any of us

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Speaker 2: to do it. That I agree with, Yeah, but not

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Speaker 2: really hard. Well but actually, yeah, how is.

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Speaker 5: It a miracle? Both of you feel like you could get.

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Speaker 2: Because the miracles out here daily just because it's an emergency.

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Speaker 2: Just look, every day is a miracle while we're here.

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Speaker 1: I treat every day why I wake up as a miracle,

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Speaker 1: thinking very much every heart. I think the reason why

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Speaker 1: I feel like it'd be it would be a miracles

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Speaker 1: like the just think of the headline. Guys never flown

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Speaker 1: the plane before lands Yeah, and that plane. That's my

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Speaker 1: point on these very specific instructions given to him.

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Speaker 2: Yes through the headphones, So this.

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Speaker 5: Not too long ago, but it was a small plane.

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Speaker 5: The man with a career in flooring sales explains how

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Speaker 5: we became impromptu pilot when the real pilot passed out

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Speaker 5: of the controls.

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Speaker 7: They reached over his body because he's at this point unresponsive,

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Speaker 7: and slowly started to pull back on the stick and turn.

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Speaker 7: How did you know how to do that? Just common sense,

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Speaker 7: I guess being on airplanes.

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Speaker 3: And the guy had flown like hundreds of times before

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Speaker 3: and he was able to land the plane. But it

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Speaker 3: was a smaller plane. He had been in the small planes.

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Speaker 3: You see what the guy is doing all the time.

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Speaker 3: Neither one of you ever been in a cockpit, and

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Speaker 3: you think you can be in a small plane.

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Speaker 4: I've been in a cockpit just to like say hi

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Speaker 4: to the pilot. But I've also played.

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Speaker 2: Ace Combat multiple games in that series.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, have you ever heard of Star Fox? So by gender,

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Speaker 4: this is how it breaks down.

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Speaker 2: So for very confident, which was thirteen percent of all people,

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Speaker 2: it's male twenty percent and female seven percent.

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Speaker 5: Yep, ladies got their mind right.

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Speaker 1: So they need to feel more confident about society that unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: you know, ladies are pushed down.

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Speaker 4: Guys are confidence. Sky is the limit queens.

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Speaker 3: I think I think this is a classic case of

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Speaker 3: guys just thinking they can do shit that they can't.

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Speaker 2: In my opinion, it's a bad thing that women don't

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Speaker 2: feel more confident women are not. It's not a detriment

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Speaker 2: to me. I wish everyone was answering that they're very

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Speaker 2: I was on a.

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Speaker 1: Plane and the pilot passed out. I wish men and

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Speaker 1: women stood up to volunteer to play play.

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Speaker 2: And I would also say I would probably prefer a

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Speaker 2: confident women to take that.

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Speaker 1: I fully believe that like men in general are too

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Speaker 1: like over confident about things. But I think this specific

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Speaker 1: I think this specific question is different though, because you

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Speaker 1: are you aren't relying on yourself. You're relying on a

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Speaker 1: professional who knows how to land a plan.

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Speaker 3: But you're you are the person who is at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day, going to be responsible for whether

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Speaker 3: or not you live or die.

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Speaker 2: When I fail and the you know, it's on the

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Speaker 2: cover of the newspaper the next day, they're not going

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Speaker 2: to be like this guy thought he could do it.

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Speaker 2: We gave him perfect instructions and he messed up. They'd

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Speaker 2: be like brave hero, Yeah, gave it a shot, tried

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Speaker 2: his best, and he was the only one who could.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: I think the point that it's not easy is the

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Speaker 3: issue with guys period.

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Speaker 5: If it were easy, then who would care?

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Speaker 3: Right, Guys think that they can do impossible stuff all

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Speaker 3: the time and have confidence, unearned confidence, And I think

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Speaker 3: that's what what's happening here. Why Why do you think

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Speaker 3: that you can land on a plan you have no

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Speaker 3: experience with related in your life.

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Speaker 1: Because the thing you're bringing up about unearned confidence, I

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Speaker 1: don't think it fully applies to this. Because someone is

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Speaker 1: holding your hand through the problem.

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Speaker 4: I don't think you need a super high IQ to

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Speaker 4: do that.

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Speaker 5: So y'all are both saying that this is not that

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Speaker 5: hard of a thing to do. Period.

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Speaker 4: Kind of.

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Speaker 1: Let's say, Devin, there's something wrong with your car's transmission

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Speaker 1: and you don't know how to fix that.

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Speaker 5: I don't.

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Speaker 1: You've never seen, you've never tried in your life.

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Speaker 5: No, I don't know anything about cars.

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Speaker 1: Now, what if a mechanic called you on the phone.

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Speaker 1: You have all the tools and he's just walking you through.

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Speaker 5: I can barely watch a video and put something together.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but no, Okay, if you don't fix it, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna explode and kill you.

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Speaker 5: Okay, a little bit higher, I'm gonna try a little

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Speaker 5: bit harder.

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Speaker 1: I think you could fix it if he told you

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Speaker 1: exactly what to do. I think that doesn't mean his

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Speaker 1: job's easy.

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Speaker 3: You can only give me but so much guidance, but

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Speaker 3: at a certain point there's a lot of judgment also involved.

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Speaker 3: They can tell you what button the press, they can

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Speaker 3: tell you when to do something, but you are still

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Speaker 3: flying a plane.

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Speaker 5: This isn't like putting something together.

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Speaker 3: Or taking something apart, right Like, this is a moving

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Speaker 3: vehicle in the sky, and there's a lot of things

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Speaker 3: that can go wrong.

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Speaker 5: I think y'all are thinking of that is like, Okay,

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Speaker 5: you're putting together ikea furniture with like a blindfold, Like

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Speaker 5: can you do it?

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Speaker 2: I guess from my perspective from what little I do

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Speaker 2: know about these planes is it kind of is like

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Speaker 2: that more so than you know, uh, you know a

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Speaker 2: race car going around a crazy bend that is skill

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Speaker 2: based and like you need you need a very special.

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Speaker 3: Now we're talking like there's there's gonna be wind, there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be things that I know we're not like putting

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Speaker 3: like something in the middle of the tarmac intentionally, but

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Speaker 3: like it's there's probably gonna be something happening that day

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Speaker 3: that you know, like even if you're driving a car,

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Speaker 3: right like if it's not raining, there's still you know,

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Speaker 3: like maybe there's a po hole. Maybe you know, it's

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Speaker 3: like there's always variable. Sure, yes, but there's a.

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Speaker 2: Reason that I'm assuming they know that and they're gonna

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Speaker 2: there's a reason why, like air traffic control doesn't just

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Speaker 2: fly to planes.

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Speaker 4: Well we're it is that they're not in the plane.

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Speaker 5: There's a reason there's a pilot in the plane.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm not even saying that like in this transmission scenario,

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Speaker 1: you might have been able to fix it, but not

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Speaker 1: as good as the mechanic in this scenario with the plane.

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Speaker 5: I'm not saying real close to landing, I'm.

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Speaker 1: Not saying everyone's gonna live or like maybe I don't

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Speaker 1: know if I'll do the landing wheel gears to come out,

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Speaker 1: maybe I'll fuck that part up.

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Speaker 5: I don't think killing a couple of people safely landing

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Speaker 5: that is.

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Speaker 1: Come on, there's two hundred other people on the plane.

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Speaker 4: It's a miracle.

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Speaker 5: Okay, So so I think that changes things a little bit. Though.

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Speaker 5: If you're saying I can get us.

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Speaker 3: On the ground, we're gonna get where everyone is gonna

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Speaker 3: live is very difficult.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna live there.

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Speaker 3: You're saying safely everyone everyone. People may get like some whiplash.

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Speaker 4: Or something more turbulent.

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Speaker 2: Probably, sure, I'm playing on getting the wheels out.

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Speaker 5: You can like, you know, one of the wheels fall

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Speaker 5: off or something like that. You can be in perfect condition. No,

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Speaker 5: you can.

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Speaker 3: Crash land, but everyone needs to be alive and be

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Speaker 3: able to like get off the plane.

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Speaker 5: I'm not talking like half the plane blows off.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I know, the making it to the road.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm gonna have a parachute. So I'm I'm

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Speaker 2: in a little bit early.

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Speaker 1: But okay, so I think I need to try and

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Speaker 1: actually land a plane.

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Speaker 8: With your control.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's the run, right, I'm looking at this thing.

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Speaker 1: But first I'm going to talk to an expert. This

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Speaker 1: guy has studied overconfidence so much that he has an

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Speaker 1: effect named after him.

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Speaker 2: That's after the break.

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Speaker 4: What break?

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Speaker 2: We don't have any breaks?

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Speaker 4: Cool break?

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Speaker 1: The break is just music. Yeah, all right, we're back.

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Speaker 4: I'm Anny Noah.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: Last time we were here, we debated whether Noah and

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Speaker 1: I could land a plane given instructions.

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Speaker 5: By or not. We debated whether all of us would

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Speaker 5: be able to land a plane.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but it turned into me and Noah because you

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Speaker 1: decided that we were crazy. I interviewed this guy named

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Speaker 1: David Dunning. He's a psychology professor at the University of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: I went to Ohio State it, so I almost hung

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Speaker 1: up the call when I found that out.

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Speaker 4: But we let it slide.

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Speaker 1: David Dunning is the founder of this concept called the

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Speaker 1: Dunning Kruger effect.

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Speaker 8: Well, the Dunning Kruger effect, as it's come to be

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Speaker 8: known in popular culture, is the idea that those who

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Speaker 8: lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that

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Speaker 8: they lack expertise. So they do quite badly in various skills,

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Speaker 8: but they think they're doing just fine until the world

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Speaker 8: really makes the lesson very very clear.

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Speaker 3: He's saying that these people don't even realize. I thought

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Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, I'm super confident at this thing.

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Speaker 3: I try to sing, thinking I'm going to be good

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Speaker 3: at it. But then as I'm doing it, maybe I realized, Okay,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's like we talked about, like playing.

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Speaker 5: Serena Williams and Tennis.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, that's an extreme example, but it's interesting that he

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Speaker 3: says the person doesn't even realize they're not good at

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Speaker 3: it even while or after doing it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's like total oblivious y versus in the Plaine

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Speaker 2: scenario we're talking about saying I'll try this, yes, not

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Speaker 2: like maybe you're doing it and now the plane is

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Speaker 2: crashing and being like, oh this is fine. Yes, Like Devin,

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Speaker 2: you have to allow that's different than we're not that illusional.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well, well, for our example is if you don't do

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Speaker 3: it while you die, versus like if it was like

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Speaker 3: you thought you were great at like painting or something.

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Speaker 1: I wondered whether it's a quote unquote good or quote

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Speaker 1: unquote bad thing to be overconfident in an area.

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Speaker 8: The way I like to think about it is if

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Speaker 8: you are a general and you're leading your troops to battle. Now,

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Speaker 8: the day before the invasion, you want to be very,

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Speaker 8: very under confident. You want to worry about every contingency,

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Speaker 8: every risk, everything that could go wrong, every devious scheme

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Speaker 8: the enemy might have, and prepare for it. You don't

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Speaker 8: want to be overconfident. You want to be diligent to

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Speaker 8: a fault. But then the day of the battle, you

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Speaker 8: want to be overconfident because you want to transmit to

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Speaker 8: your troops that this is the plan and we got

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Speaker 8: to go in because that's the way you're going to succeed.

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Speaker 8: So confidence and overconfidence is something that you manage. There

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Speaker 8: are times when it's good to be overconfident as long

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Speaker 8: as you're flexible, and there are times to be under confident.

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Speaker 8: But you have to know the difference of when you're

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Speaker 8: in the first situation versus the second situation. So that's

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Speaker 8: the way I think about it.

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Speaker 2: I think sports is the easiest example to think of, Like,

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Speaker 2: at some point you have to push yourself to try

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Speaker 2: to do something, or like even just working out or something. Right,

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Speaker 2: it's easy in like you know, X minutes into a

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Speaker 2: workout to be like, oh man, I'm really tired. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to do this last thing. Obviously you put

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Speaker 2: yourself that. It's the Peleton instructors screaming at you. You

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Speaker 2: feel better, like they promise you would.

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Speaker 5: You would do it. It's not like yeah, I can

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Speaker 5: do it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean shout out to them yeah.

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Speaker 1: And to try to kind of tie this to the

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Speaker 1: plane scenario, I guess he's saying it's bad that we're

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Speaker 1: confident before we're in they.

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Speaker 3: That's true right now. See he's saying basically you should

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Speaker 3: be mean, right now.

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Speaker 2: Studying like what exactly?

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Speaker 1: Want to be prepared and measured, but when the emergency comes,

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Speaker 1: it is good to be confident. I rolled up the sleeves,

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Speaker 1: which is like the inverse of what we are. We're

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Speaker 1: confident before the emergency, and when the emergency happens, we're

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Speaker 1: nervous and can we do it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be like, hey, captain, if you need a

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Speaker 2: few minutes off, just you know, I'm in Rose seventeen

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Speaker 2: back there, economy.

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Speaker 1: So the next thing we talked about was this kind

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Speaker 1: of breakdown between men and women, like the gender aspect

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Speaker 1: to this, because as as a reminder, men were way

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Speaker 1: more confident than women were in this specific question.

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Speaker 8: If something is identified with a gender, like sports with

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Speaker 8: men and still cooking with women, people will tend to

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Speaker 8: be overconfident and confident in the things that are identified

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Speaker 8: with their gender. That is one of the things that

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Speaker 8: produces is overconfidence. Is this preconceived notion you have about yourself.

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Speaker 8: So if you think you know everything your male, you're

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Speaker 8: just much more likely to think you know everything about

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Speaker 8: sports because you watch a lot of sports. It's not

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Speaker 8: as true as it used to be, but it still

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Speaker 8: is true. So men will be more confident and over

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Speaker 8: confident in what they know about sports than women. It'll

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Speaker 8: flip if you talk about something that's identified with being

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Speaker 8: a woman.

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Speaker 2: So it's not necessarily that women are just less confident

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Speaker 2: than men. It's that society gives women fewer things to

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Speaker 2: be confident about. So it's kind of a circular argument.

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Speaker 5: But right.

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Speaker 1: The next question I asked him was I just wanted

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Speaker 1: to get his thoughts on the survey. It's I think

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Speaker 1: thirty two percent of people feel somewhat to very confident

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Speaker 1: that they could land a plane in an emergency situation.

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Speaker 1: I just do you do you have any general reaction

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Speaker 1: to that.

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Speaker 8: I am completely struck with lack of surprise. Actually, that

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Speaker 8: sounds about right. There's a thing that happens when you're

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Speaker 8: distant from what you're considering. So if you're you're never

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Speaker 8: going to actually follow the plane, you're never going to

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Speaker 8: pay for overconfidence. So it's okay, and things may change

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Speaker 8: if you're actually on the plane.

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Speaker 1: So pretty much every insight that he's had in this

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Speaker 1: interview goes against our confidence in landing a plane.

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Speaker 2: I can't argue with this guy. You know, this guy

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Speaker 2: sounds like he knows what he said. I guess I

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Speaker 2: still probably wouldn't change my answer at this I don't

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Speaker 2: think I.

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Speaker 4: Would either, But it's like, and you know, I'm learning more.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that's necessarily I don't think that's

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Speaker 2: his point either.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 2: I think he's just like into how that's just how, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it works.

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Speaker 4: This is just the way we all think about this.

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Speaker 3: It's just explaining why you are both so over confidence.

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Speaker 5: And why you shouldn't be.

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Speaker 2: And it is easy to feel that way now obviously.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because you're not on a plane falling out of

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Speaker 3: the sky here, and you're not in a scenario where

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Speaker 3: you possibly would be.

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Speaker 1: Now, I had one more question for him. If you

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Speaker 1: were given instruction by an air traffic controller, do you

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Speaker 1: think you could land a plane in an emergency situation?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 8: Absolutely not. I react too slow, over I overthink. I

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Speaker 8: mean people think that people are answering because of self puffery,

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Speaker 8: But really what it is is they don't know everything

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Speaker 8: that's going to happen. They have no idea, and but

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Speaker 8: they but in that they have some idea. Well, there's

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Speaker 8: a little steering wheel, and you just do the steering wheel.

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Speaker 8: It's like video game, video games, yeah, so they have.

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Speaker 1: You're doing a great impression of me. Yeah, so he

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Speaker 1: kind of cooked me at the end there. I just

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Speaker 1: found it so interesting to to understand a little bit better,

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Speaker 1: like why we thought the way that we thought, and

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Speaker 1: why we think the way that we find present tense

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Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, I think we

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Speaker 1: still maybe I'm going to go from like very confident

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Speaker 1: to somewhat confident after learning why I think this way.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, testing out this Yuga of survey question in real

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Speaker 1: life would be illegal.

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Speaker 2: I think I'm assuming.

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Speaker 5: I don't think what we did it we got many

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Speaker 5: on a plane.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, the emergency situation, We pushed the yeah you've you've

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Speaker 9: probably been hearing about these little Boeing incidents, and that's

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Speaker 9: trying to get this ready.

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Speaker 2: One of the doors falls.

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Speaker 1: We're just trying to make a really good podcast. So

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Speaker 1: we can't actually do this experiment in real life, but

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Speaker 1: we did the next best thing, which is a flight simulator.

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Speaker 1: So the three of us went to a place called

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Speaker 1: Manhattan Flight Club in Midtown, New York City, and we

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Speaker 1: linked up with a pilot named Taylor loosely uh, and

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Speaker 1: we decided to try and play out this scenario as

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Speaker 1: close as we as close as we could get it

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Speaker 1: to the scenario and the yuga of survey question. So

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Speaker 1: we get to the Manhattan Flight Club and then we

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Speaker 1: get in, we meet Taylor and he takes us to

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Speaker 1: the actual simulator. This was a chair at a desk

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Speaker 1: and it had like two big monitors. But it was

447
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: legit like they had like all these controls.

448
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, had all the opponents.

449
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 5: He said it was FCC whatever, right.

450
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 2: You mean FAA certified.

451
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Taylor, who was so kind to help us out

452
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 1: with this and so patient because we had the dumbest

453
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 1: questions ever. He is not an air traffic controller and

454
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: so he's he's just a pilot and he knows how

455
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: to pilot these smaller aircrafts. And so it's worth noting

456
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 1: before we listen to the tape that the simulation we

457
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 1: were running it was not a simulation of a passenger

458
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: commercial jet. The simulation is a smaller aircraft. So yeah,

459
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 1: let's take a listen to the to me trying to

460
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 1: land a plane in an emergency.

461
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 4: All right, this is Manny.

462
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: I'm here with Noah and Devin at the Manhattan Flight

463
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 1: Club flight simulator. I'm looking at this kind of monstrous

464
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: set up here, and I will say I'm a little

465
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: less confident than I was when we first recorded.

466
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 4: So yeah, let's do this.

467
00:22:52,320 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 1: Are you I'm hearing the voice, but I know I

468
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: don't know how to respond to the voice.

469
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 10: Fude, early, Are you in an emergency joint? Hor Fox Stago?

470
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 5: Yes, please respond.

471
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 1: Okay, here's I'm gonna try this, Mark Fox or Tango.

472
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 10: There's a pilot in compation. I look for a red

473
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 10: button on your control to talk to us.

474
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 8: Oh, there should be a red button on your control wheel.

475
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 1: Oh shit, okay, hello, can you hear me more?

476
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 8: Fox Shartano, I heard your trade point.

477
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 5: Are you a flight out of control?

478
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: I'm only technically a pilot, but I've never flun playing before.

479
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 1: Our our pilot had some kind of emergency and now

480
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: I'm at the meal.

481
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 10: Mor Fox Hupano, Roger had a declared emergency and you

482
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 10: get it.

483
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 5: Help you get to the runway.

484
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 10: Thank com and we're going to figure it out together again.

485
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 4: That sounds great. This is thank you, Thank you so much.

486
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 10: Poor Fox. Are you able to he uh what looks

487
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 10: like a comment per south east and some other numbers

488
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 10: on one of the dials in front of you.

489
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 4: Yes, the dial on the top has that we're wanting

490
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 4: you do to churn.

491
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 6: Now, are you able to earn right and the.

492
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 10: Letter as you see on the dial.

493
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 4: Yes, I'll try it.

494
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 5: You'll have to stop your care now.

495
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 10: Finger to stop the churn much the control of last

496
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 10: for functioning.

497
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: You're doing good. You're towards the final approach path of

498
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 2: the runway.

499
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 8: Here we go ahead and verify that, just so we

500
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:40,640
Speaker 8: can see you.

501
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 10: Your waiting light is on.

502
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: Here's one problem I see if I go suppress it,

503
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 1: but I'm then not on the steering wheel for function.

504
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 10: Thing I understand.

505
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 2: Go ahead and announce her and one to one five.

506
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 4: To look on the other side of the letter.

507
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 5: Ask Okay, your leftern.

508
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 10: Is hooking in a turning laps on the stream.

509
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 5: Here, go ahead and reduce that throttle.

510
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: If by about a quarter of an inch.

511
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 4: If we're gonna start your data, head here to help

512
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 4: you out. Okay, I'm just trying to balance.

513
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 5: I do love that.

514
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 3: Sometimes may ask as if these are suggestions, I'll get

515
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 3: to it.

516
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 8: You might be able to at the point to slightly

517
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 8: court the runway with your control than what you see.

518
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 5: Oh, that's the runway. I'm looking at this thing.

519
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 10: If you can see anything that could we flap.

520
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 4: We might have to go without the flaps. I don't

521
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 4: see the flaps, but poor.

522
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 10: Fox here to be the perfect for a final approach

523
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 10: in the landing. Grab itrontal and flowing pullet all the way.

524
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 8: Back toward you.

525
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 10: Okay, you go ahead, and flowing point up to push

526
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 10: the lab.

527
00:25:58,240 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 4: Let's go.

528
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 1: So yeah, fuck all the haters. I landed the goddamn plane.

529
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 1: It was obviously a lot rockier than I thought it

530
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: was going to be, but I did it.

531
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 3: So now, after having done the simulation, do you say,

532
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 3: do you think that you feel more or less confident

533
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 3: than beforehand about your the probability of you successfully landing

534
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 3: an actual plane.

535
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: What I learned was that Number one pretty good at this.

536
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 2: I think I'm pretty good at Like now you must

537
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: be more confident.

538
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 1: Well, here's the tricky part. The reason why I'm not

539
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 1: more confident is because obvious it goes without saying, this

540
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: is a much different scenario than in real life, and

541
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 1: of course we knew that going into it. But like

542
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: sitting in the chair, seeing all the controls, doing everything

543
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,199
Speaker 1: he was telling me to do, I'm still confident that

544
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 1: I could do this, but I now have more respect

545
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: for like how hard it acts.

546
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: Actually is just the.

547
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 1: Overwhelming amount of numbers and dials and controls and switches

548
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: and levers and buttons that are sitting in front of

549
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: you are so overwhelming that, like, and I know that.

550
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 4: Taylor are fake.

551
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 1: Air traffic control guy was saying exactly what to do.

552
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: But when he says, press the red button, Yeah, there's

553
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: fifty red buttons.

554
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, like it, it was very hard to get. It's

555
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 4: not necessarily labeled so clearly because.

556
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 1: This scenario, Yeah.

557
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 2: Like here's the one you really need.

558
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 4: Now.

559
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 1: The other reason I'm probably a little less confident is this,

560
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: So like after the experiment, I emailed Taylor to try

561
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: and tell us what the differences between that aircraft we

562
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: did in the simulator versus a real like passenger jet

563
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: that would have like two hundred people on it. There

564
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,479
Speaker 1: are two key differences. One is that it's even obviously

565
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: it's even more complex the controls on a bigger flight. However,

566
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: he noted that in this emergency scenario, you would be

567
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: ignoring ninety.

568
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: Percent of the controls on the plane.

569
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, but more stuff to look at.

570
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 1: There's more, there's more stuff you have to get through,

571
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 1: so that's hard. The second part is pretty detrimental. The

572
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: speed of the aircraft. Our aircraft was going and landing

573
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: at around seventy knots.

574
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 4: Do I know what that means?

575
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 5: No?

576
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: OK, but a passenger jet goes at one hundred and

577
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: twenty to one hundred and fifty knots. So essentially I'd

578
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: be doing that simulation at twice the speed. Oh yeah,

579
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: and that just gives you so much fewer minutes.

580
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: How much time to mess around reaction.

581
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: Time is in the simulation. You could we were really

582
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: slowly going back and.

583
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: Forth to continue to correct everything, you know, removing this

584
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 2: from the very specific plane scenario. I think this is

585
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: you know, I definitely think about using confidence, you know,

586
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: in my kind of regular life, and like how I

587
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 2: actually can use it to my advantage.

588
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 5: Using confidence as a tool.

589
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: I think it's like an interesting takeaway, intentional, being more

590
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: intentional about using confidence in that way. Although I feel

591
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 3: like sometimes you just can't control it, you know, I

592
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 3: can't control the fact that I don't think I could

593
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 3: land that planning.

594
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah you can't, Yeah you can't necessarily, Yeah, yeah,

595
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 2: that way I'm too real, you know, too honest.

596
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: Well, the other part of the Dunning Kruger effect is

597
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: people who are not confident when they should be. So

598
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 1: maybe you can't land a plane.

599
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 6: I get a little bit nervous I get on a plane.

600
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 6: I have this version where everyone's screaming out there, lovers,

601
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 6: and then I think of my mother's come on with

602
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 6: the flames. Nothing ever Happens.

603
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: No Such Thing is produced by Manny Fidel, Noah Friedman

604
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: and Devin Joseph. The theme song is by me Manny.

605
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 1: This song is Nothing Ever Happens by Darryl Ron. Our

606
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: guest this week was David Dunning. Thanks to our friends

607
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: for their notes, Julia Lindsay and Mia de Graf, and

608
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: visit No Such Thing Dot Show to see our setup

609
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: for the flight simulator.

610
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 6: As it ever happens.

611
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: Next week on No Such Thing, the Return of Slurs.

612
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 1: I couldn't understand the power of these words until they

613
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: use them against Lebron James