WEBVTT - Why do we need early adopters? 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:02.880 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:08.959 It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:17.920 tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hi, everybody, 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.320 welcome to tech stuff. My name is Chris Poette and 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.439 I am an editor here at how stuff works dot Com. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.320 Sitting across from me, as he always is, his senior writer, 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:29.400 Jonathan Strickland. This will only hurt a little what comes 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:33.159 next more so? Alright, I don't have any idea where 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:35.960 that one came from. Maybe our listeners do. Yeah, it's 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:38.960 from a movie I watched on Netflix instant. Don't judge me, 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:42.760 all right, So let's leads us to a little listener mail. 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.400 This listener mail comes from Dave from New Hampshire, and 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:53.200 Dave says, Hey, guys, love your podcast. I was listening 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:55.840 to your podcast about USB FireWire and in the podcast 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:59.080 you mentioned the backward compatibility of USB versions. I hear 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.200 these terms a lot, backward compatibility, upward compatibility, and I'm 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:05.680 always wondering what do they really mean? How about demystifying 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:08.520 this topic for me and my fellow loyal listeners. Thanks 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:11.320 for all you do, Dave. All Right, Dave, we're not 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:13.199 going to do a full podcast on this, we figured 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:15.920 we'd answer this question quickly before moving on to the 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:20.319 main course. But backward compatibility is a pretty simple concept. 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.880 Let's say that you have a device and it runs 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:26.560 a certain kind of software, and then let's say that 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:32.520 technological advancements and processing power and manufacturing costs have come 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:34.559 to the point where you can make a new version 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:38.400 of this device that runs new software and can do 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:43.240 lots more stuff than the old version can. So let's 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.000 as a simple example, we'll go with a video gaming console. 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.800 Will say PlayStation was the original one and PlayStation two 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:52.120 is the new one. So PlayStation two comes out and 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:54.680 it can run new games that the old PlayStation can't 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:58.840 run well. Backwards compatibility means that the PlayStation two has 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:02.640 built in it the ability of playing older games from 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:07.360 the PlayStation one right now. People who like technology really 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:12.840 tend to enjoy the backward compatibility um model because it 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.720 means that the stuff they've bought before will still work 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.480 on the new stuff they have now. They don't have 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.519 to keep multiple versions of the same device because the 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:26.200 latest one will run everything right right if you especially 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:28.959 true uh I think of the video game consoles, because 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:31.760 a lot of people fall in love with a particular game, 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.280 particular build of a game. They're they're uh, you know, 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:37.880 we were recently talking about the new version of Civilization, 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.000 and I know that some people really like Civilization two 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:44.760 and they couldn't stand Civilization three. So people would continue 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:48.240 to play the older version of the game, and you know, 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.280 if their computers wouldn't run the older version of the game, 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:53.600 then they would have to either give up the game, 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:57.480 or you know, continue keeping their old machine around so 0:02:57.520 --> 0:02:59.600 that they could continue to play that, or find some 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:02.640 sort of emulator that would allow them to play the 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:05.959 old game. That it's really what we're talking about here 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:10.560 is the ability to to use older technology using a 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:14.120 new device or software model. I mean it really, it 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:18.120 can be anything. It's just a general concept. Upward compatibility 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:20.520 is kind of similar in the sense that you design 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:24.960 something with the idea and mind that future iterations of 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:28.120 that device will still be able to run the software 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:32.680 you're developing now. So it's it's really it's forethought. You're thinking, 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:34.720 all right, I've built this device. I want to make 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:37.480 sure that every device I build in the future will 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:39.280 still be able to run the stuff I've got now. 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:43.160 In case, people really like it, So it's it's one 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.800 of those concepts that again is really popular, especially among gamers. 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:49.680 You hear whenever a new system comes out that does 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:53.840 not support earlier versions. There's a lot of griping and complaining. 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:58.480 Nintendo is infamous for this because Nintendo not only will 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:01.560 give you a new game system that will require a 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:05.400 new kind of medium, right. You know, you might have 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:07.920 cartridges in one system, and then you have many discs 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.840 in the next, and then slightly different sized media for 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.440 the for the next one, and they none of them 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:15.760 will work on the other machines, so you can't play 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:19.840 your older games on your newer machine. Sometimes. Yes, of course, 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:21.920 the we actually is a big step for that. Yes, 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:24.279 because I only mentioned that because someone will write in 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.680 and tell us that you can play GameCube games on 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.360 the Wii and it will let you download games for 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.279 the Genesis and older Nintendo systems to right that, Yes, 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:34.240 they didn't make a big step in that regardment, right, 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:37.200 But if you look at things like the the Nes 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.920 Super Nes in sixty four GameCube, I mean it's just 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:45.039 it's a history of not letting you access that older, uh, 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:48.720 that older product without keeping your older game system around, 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:52.039 which just means that you end up getting really cluttered. Yes, 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:56.000 so that's the whole backward compatibility upward compatibility issue. And 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:57.800 now we're going to move on, and it's kind of 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.360 a related topic. It's definitely related. We're going to talk 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:04.599 about early adopters and why they're important. Okay, then, so 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.440 first I guess we should, uh, you know, define what 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:10.440 early adopter is. It's actually, it pretty much is what 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:14.200 sounds like. It's a person who is someone someone who 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:19.279 will adopt new technology before the general crowd does. So 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.960 it's it's the people who have to have that latest 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:26.400 and greatest thing as soon as possible, before it becomes 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:30.440 the most you know, commonly owned device out there. So 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.360 early adopters are the people who moved to cell phones 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:37.560 before anyone else did, smartphones before anyone else did. They're 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:41.080 the ones who adopted the new form of like DVDs 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.280 and CDs and and h D DVDs and blue rays. Right. 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.320 He Actually the first Uh, if this sounds a little 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:50.279 foreign to you, that's because this is not really tech speak. 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.240 It's what I would consider marketing speak. The first, the 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:57.440 first instance I came across of the term early adopter 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:01.320 was when I used to work in marketing, and um 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.960 it actually came and where I came to be aware 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:08.360 of it. From Jeffrey A. Moore's book, which was first 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:13.040 published in nineteen anyone called Crossing the Chasm and UH 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:16.240 and More comes up with basically five groups of people, 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:19.719 the innovators, the early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:22.560 and the laggards. Basically, the innovators to the people who 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.800 are the bleeding edge. As soon as it comes out, 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:26.839 they've got to go buy it, the first in line, 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:30.480 the first day a brand new product is released. They 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:34.520 don't care about the possible bugs. Um, they don't really 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:36.479 care that it may or may not be a lemon 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:38.520 or that it may not, you know, take off with 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:41.640 the market and there's stuff that comes out that's compatible 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.120 with it. Um. They just want it and they want 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.120 it now. And the early adopters followed behind them, but 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:50.640 not too far behind them. These guys, the two groups 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:54.120 really make up the the people that marketers have been 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:58.839 trying to reach with tech products really probably since UH, 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:03.479 since technolog became such a hot consumer thing, and innovators 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.840 can sometimes get hold of products before they even hit 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:07.880 the market. That's true. We're talking about people who are 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:10.960 so motivated to get hold of this technology that they 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:16.640 form relationships with engineers or companies. Sometimes there are people 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.600 who work within a company. For instance, Google is a 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:22.880 good example Google. Google does this thing called dog fooding, 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:28.600 where they encouraged their employees to consume the same products 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:32.360 that they are building. So for example, the Nexus one, 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.600 that the Android phone that Google put out on the market, 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:38.600 that was a developer phone, that was an in house 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:41.080 developer phone before it ever hit the market, and Google 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:44.320 engineers had been playing with it for several months before 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:46.400 the public ever got a chance to play with it. 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:50.600 In a way, the Google engineers were manufactured innovators. You know, 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:53.800 whether they had that particular personality trade or not is 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:57.960 beside the point. They actually were using it before anyone else. Uh. 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.800 And the idea with Google is that you can turn 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:04.680 them into innovator types because, uh, they'll if they like 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:06.560 the product, they'll go out and they'll talk about it, 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:09.840 and then that'll lead to the next round of early adopters. 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:14.200 And we should probably give some percentages here because you 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:17.840 can think of the whole different classifications as a bell curve. 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:21.560 So on the bleeding edge. You've got the innovators, which 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:26.000 make up about two point five percent of the entire market, 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.320 and then you've got early adopters, and that's an additional 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:32.440 thirteen point five percent, so we're still talking about six 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.280 of the entire market. That's it. You know, everybody else 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.280 falls into either the early majority, so we're talking about 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:43.000 the people who who follow behind the early adopters and 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.240 buy it, but they're not buying it, you know, right 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.120 out of the gate. They're waiting a while to see 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:49.240 what the early adopters think. And then you have the 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:52.319 late majority. Those are that's everybody else. I would probably 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:56.720 fall into that category for most products. And then you've 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.320 got the laggards, who are the people who they'll buy 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.520 something once it becomes clear that the stuff they they 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:06.000 own will no longer work for them. Yes, so that 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.000 these are the people who will eventually break down and 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.319 buy a cell phone just because everyone else has one 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:14.199 and they are, you know there they need one now, 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:16.800 Or they'll finally go out and they'll they'll buy a 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:19.760 video game system long after it's been off the market 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:21.920 because now it's being sold and used game stores and 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:23.439 they're like, well, I've always wanted to play this, but 0:09:23.480 --> 0:09:26.200 I never had the drive to actually go out and 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:30.160 buy one when it was on the market for real zes. Um, 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.720 go ahead, I'm sorry, And now I was gonna reference 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:36.000 back to uh to the chasm here. Chasm for those 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.360 of you who are unfamiliar with the word are because 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:40.640 we do have a lot of people who may not 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:45.720 know is a is a gap. So traditionally they're, at 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:49.160 least according to uh More's thinking, there is a gap 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.920 in between the early adopters and the early majority, and 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.600 the trick for marketers is to get people in the 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:58.280 early majority to buy it. So they want to, the 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:02.320 marketers and the product engineers want to cross the chasm 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:07.679 between just this small, you know, sixteen percent population of 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:11.640 the market to everybody else. And basically they figure, hey, 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:15.280 if I can get all these people to take it 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:18.319 on and start using it, then they'll start spreading you know, 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:20.280 word of mouth. But we have to get people talking 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:23.720 about this thing. Otherwise it's only going to you know, 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.880 reach the scent of the market and we'll be trying 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.679 to create a brand new product something else to sell 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.160 to people. So they want to they want to bridge 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:33.840 that gap, and that's where the title of that book 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:36.520 comes from and for the most part, you know, it's 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.240 it's been a pretty it's played out pretty well, pretty 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.960 true to form. Yeah, what's interesting to me is I 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:45.640 read a some survey results from Roger's Consulting. They they 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:48.320 got a famous, uh survey on this back in the 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:52.040 eighties and it's still kind of something that holds true today. Uh. 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:56.559 They found in their survey that fifty of early adopters 0:10:57.040 --> 0:11:01.120 held either a master's degree or a PhD. So we're 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:05.120 talking about people who have reached a high level of education. Um, 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.679 they have a lot of They normally have a lot 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:11.760 of income they can dispose of. Because that's why the 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:13.800 things about being an early adopters. It means that you're 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:18.640 buying the technology back when it first premieres. It's usually 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.520 when it's the most expensive, and you have to you 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.760 have to be willing to take a risk. Right, you're 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:27.240 going to be investing in a technology. There's no guarantee 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.640 that technology is going to be successful yet, so you're 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:33.400 spending a good deal of money on a product that 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:38.800 may not succeed and may not be supported for very long. So, 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:42.040 so these people are are highly educated and they are 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.800 risk takers and they have lots of money, kind of 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:49.000 the people I want to hang out with. Well, it's 0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:53.720 it's it's very challenging to reach past the early adopter 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.480 segment for different people, and they're looking at in different ways. 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:00.280 The venture capitalists who are the people that fund brand 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:04.800 new companies UM are looking are constantly looking for a 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.160 way to reach past the early majority because they want 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:09.160 to fund stuff that's going to make them lots and 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.920 lots of money. Now, a brand new startup developer making 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:16.640 a software or hardware product is really not concerned with 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:19.079 reaching the early majority because they want to read. They 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.840 want to reach the innovators. They get them to start 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:23.720 buying it, and they have the early adopters start buying 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:25.800 it and hopefully after that. I mean, they're not really 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:27.800 worried about this. And this is this is actually what 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:31.600 I got from reading Alexis Cold's article on Read Write 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:33.840 Web not too long ago. But I thought it was 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:35.920 funny because we started talking about doing this podcast and 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.559 he just wrote this this article about it. UM. He 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:42.040 actually used the example of the iPod as something like that. Now, 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:45.520 Apple didn't have that same problem because people knew who 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:49.600 Apple was. UM. Of course, at the time the iPod, 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:53.880 they were still still regaining some credibility after several bad 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:57.520 years of products where they were losing market share for 0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.920 the computers. They really didn't have any other consumer like 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.840 tronics on the market other than the computers at the time, um, 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.600 but they had something brand new. They had an MP 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:07.640 three player, and they were entering a market that already 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:11.320 had other people in it, in the MP three three 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.000 player market. But what they did, they came up with 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.560 a pretty product. You know, people pick on Apple for 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.760 having pretty products, but you know, that helped them cross 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:24.120 from the early adopters to the early majority, because that 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:25.800 that was one of the things that people liked about it. 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:27.880 That and the fact that it was easy to use, 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.520 and with each new version of the product that it 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:33.840 became more powerful, and that helped them move past the 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.560 early adopters. One of the things Apple built into the 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:40.400 iPod is something that tends to frustrate early adopters, but 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:43.200 it's very pleasing to the majority, which is that, you know, 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:44.920 you remove a lot of the choice, a lot of 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:48.079 the freedom out of your product. So the product works 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.240 really well, but it works really well in the specific 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.960 way and and outside of that specific way. It either 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:57.280 does not work well or it doesn't work at all. 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.520 In other words, you may not be able to use 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.840 it out side of the way they intend you to 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:05.199 use it. And for early adopters and innovators this can 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:08.920 be frustrating because they're they're kind of looking for the 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.360 device that will let them do pretty much anything. The 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:14.080 majority they want something that works, and they want something 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:18.280 that works in a specific way. So a music player, 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.120 they want a music player that's gonna work really well, 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.640 it's gonna make it easy for them to organize their music. Um, 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:28.600 they're not necessarily concerned about customizing that experience or opening 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.840 it up any They may or may not even be 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.160 aware of the limitations of the device. Yeah, it just 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:36.720 matters that it looks nice and it works. And uh 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.440 actually Clive Thompson over at Wired had a really good 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.000 article too. Yeah. I was going to mention that targeting 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:45.200 late adopters. Yeah, and this is one thing that I 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:49.080 had not considered before. Um, to go back to Scold's point, 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:53.640 another problem is that some people, some early adopters, adopt 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.400 stuff and give it up before the early majority reaches it. 0:14:56.480 --> 0:15:01.000 So some things are dying more quickly than others simply 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.600 because the early adopters tried out they like it, but 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:06.680 then there's another new thing that comes out right on 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:10.120 its heels and they buy it instead, and so they 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:12.160 never the word of mouth never gets going, and they 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.320 never really sell a lot of them. But in uh, 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.920 in Thompson's article, that's a completely different thing. Yeah, I 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:20.720 mean it's it's a completely different way of look. He's 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:26.400 he's suggesting that by ignoring the laggards, you are essentially 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:31.000 counting out of the market, which is a huge number. Yeah, 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.320 and just adding a few people from the laggards category 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:38.360 into the market for your device would really boost sales 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.800 quite a bit. And so how would you do that? Well, 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:46.600 Thompson's point is that that laggards are not necessarily always laggards. 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:51.600 They can leap frog technologies and then not the not 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:55.160 the company leap frog, but they actually jump over generations 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.200 of technologies and then adopt the latest thing once whatever 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:02.080 it is they possess is no longer really viable. The 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:05.640 example Thompson uses is he says, take a person who 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:09.680 has a walkman, an old Sony Walkman cassette player. Yes, 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.680 and they're happy with it, and they don't have and 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.280 they don't see any reason to change from the Sony 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:20.200 Walkman until so they skip over the CD revolution. They 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.480 don't they don't go into CDs, they don't go into 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.520 the mini discs or anything like that because the Walkman 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.640 still works fine. Then eventually MP three players come out, 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.600 and then you have the person who has the Sony 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:36.400 Walkman either realizes that they are hopelessly out of date 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.120 and they want to catch up, or their device no 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.240 longer works because the wear and tear is finally worn 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.960 it down, or if you're talking about cassettes, you can 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.600 also just make the argument of the formats no longer 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:50.040 really supported anywhere. You can't it's hard to get music 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:54.280 on cassette now. So if in that case the laggard 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.000 will go out and buy something, well, the lagger is 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.000 not going to go out and buy a CD player 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:00.720 or a mini disc playerlagger it will go out and 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:03.920 buy an MP three player, which means that temporarily your 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:10.040 laggard has switched from laggard to early adopter. So Thompson's 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:12.200 point is that people who are in these categories aren't 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:16.359 necessarily always in the same categories. Situation might come up 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.800 where someone behaves as if they are in the early 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.520 adopter category when normally they would be in one of 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:26.960 the other ones. So Thompson's point is that manufacturers should 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:30.160 try and find ways to market to these people, saying, hey, 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:32.159 you know, we know that this product that you have 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:35.480 that you love is great and all, but really what 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.000 you want is this new product because it does all 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:39.600 the things your old one does, but it does it 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.280 better and you've got more options and that kind of stuff. 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:44.080 That's the sort of message you need to give to 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.200 the Lacquard's Uh. Thompson doesn't really go into detail about 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:49.679 how to achieve that, because that's not really the point, 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:52.280 the point being that, you know, you can't ignore this 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.880 segment of the market because that's money gone to waste. 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.439 I can actually give you a personal example to UM. 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:04.119 I we picked up a standard definition television back around 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:07.119 two thousand or so. UM that you know, it was 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:08.960 much bigger than the one that we had, and we 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:12.919 really liked it. At the time. High definition television is really, really, 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:16.679 really really expensive, at least as far as my income 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:19.320 was concerned. UM. And then you know, I still consider 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.359 them somewhat expensive. But it's funny because you know, my 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:25.119 wife and I have talked about the possibility of getting 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.640 a high definition television. Now now that I do tech 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.520 stuff and I do a lot of research on these things. UM, 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:32.800 I've started looking at the ads and going, well, you know, 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:38.439 these high def televisions have a hundred twenty hurts refresh rates. Well, 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:41.040 maybe I should wait until the two forty hurts refresh 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:43.040 rates are cheap, you know, And it's it's the same. 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:46.480 And I actually reading Thompson's article, I saw that in myself, 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:50.480 thinking we'll see. Now I'm waiting for the you know 0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:55.080 what is currently the uh, the higher standard. Um, I'm 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.159 waiting for that to come down in price, so you 0:18:57.160 --> 0:18:59.640 know when I finally do, because my current TV works fine, 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:01.359 it looks it looks fine to have a nice signal 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.560 coming in UM, and I don't have to have high def. 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:07.320 So I'm thinking, well, maybe I should wait. And I 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.040 thought about it, and of course I don't fall true 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.520 to exactly to to his because then I would have 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:17.160 purchased a two forty hurts TV and become an innovator 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.240 or early adopter of that technology. But still, I mean, 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:21.639 I think there are a lot of people who go, 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:23.960 you know, the thing I got works. I don't really 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.480 need to fork over a couple of thousand dollars for 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:28.919 this next big thing that's come out. I'm gonna wait 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:31.000 until it comes down in price, and I you know, 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:33.800 maybe they'll be even something newer out that I like 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.280 even better. And that's that's another reason why early adopters 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:39.920 are important. Early adopters will go out and they'll they 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:43.600 have the income and the desire to purchase these products, 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.000 right A lot of them do. Right. Well, if you're 0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:48.720 an early adopter, you better have the income because you're 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:50.919 not gonna be an early adopter for long unless you're 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:53.399 an early steeler. You mean, like the people who paid 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:57.800 five six hundred dollars for a CD player or or 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:00.159 four hundred or six hundred dollars for an iPhone they 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:02.640 first came out. It's a good example. In fact, we'll 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:05.160 get into that a little bit um. But early adopters, 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:06.720 what they'll do is they'll go out and they'll purchase 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:11.320 this technology. It tends to be pretty high in price, um, 0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:13.960 but that can give an indication of which technology is 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:16.760 going to end up being successful, which means companies can 0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:20.920 invest in manufacturing processes and bring the cost of manufacture down, 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:24.080 which means they can then in turn drop prices without 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:26.960 hurting their profit margin too much, which means the rest 0:20:26.960 --> 0:20:28.880 of us can get our hands on it because we 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:31.040 we couldn't afford a CD player when it first came out, 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:33.600 but a year and a half or two years later, 0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:35.760 the price had dropped to the point where it was 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:39.320 now reasonable. Uh. That tends to be the case, but 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:41.520 it also means that early adopters run the risk of 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:44.920 purchasing a product that never really takes off and therefore 0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:48.880 never drops in price and and ends up losing support quickly. Uh. 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:51.680 Some examples of this with their their tons. I know 0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:55.200 what you're thinking of first, though, what's that I'm thinking 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:57.680 that you're going to the h d DVD route. HD 0:20:57.800 --> 0:20:59.879 DVD is a really good example. Beta Max would be 0:20:59.880 --> 0:21:02.400 an other one, because those two have some a lot 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:06.920 of parallels. The HDDVD and Beta max stories. These are 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.960 two different formats for video. You know, it's video recording 0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:14.160 and playback. Actually for for Beta Max, technically it's just playback. 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:18.479 But at any rate, you would the early adopters went 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:20.800 now bought these things, and you could argue that one 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:24.200 was better than the other. For example, in Beta max, 0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:27.800