1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,440 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie hort Ern. Join us each 4 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 2: day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 2: geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We 6 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,479 Speaker 2: are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 7 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 9 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Haidi Creeper, redictor 10 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 2: of the Council of Foreign Relations, writing final days come 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: down to turn out? Does the floating garland of garbage 12 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: in soult reminded where the recon voters in swing states 13 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: of Trump's poor treatment of the island after Hurricane Maria, 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: seeing massive backlash, But will they vote on it? This 15 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 2: could make or break the election? 16 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: Heid? 17 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: He joined us now for more, Hidy, just elaborate on 18 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: that your thoughts on the last few days, this word 19 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 2: garbage and how it may shake up this election. 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 3: Rice. So I actually I'm paying a lot less attention 21 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 3: to the Trump comments on garbage than what happened at 22 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 3: Madison Square Garden on the floating island of garbage comments. 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 3: And I think the reason that I'm thinking that is 24 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 3: because right now it really does come down to turn out. 25 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 3: The polls are razorsin in the states that matter, in 26 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: the communities that matter. And so if you're undecided and 27 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 3: you haven't voted yet, what's going to make you decide? 28 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 3: If you're ambivalent, and you are, you know, you need 29 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 3: an actual reason to vote. Is what Trump's talking about, 30 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 3: going to actually, you know, turn the dial for you. 31 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 3: Because I think his I think his supporters are pretty 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 3: you know, they're they're pretty committed, and if they haven't 33 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 3: voted already, they're probably going to vote for him regardless 34 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: of the garbage comment. For the Puerto Rican community, I 35 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 3: think it's really a wild card. 36 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 4: That's That's what I'm paying attention to. 37 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 3: Because the comment at the event at Madison Square Garden, 38 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 3: even though Trump did not make it himself, he never 39 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 3: apologized for it, and it insulted and reminded Puerto Rican 40 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 3: voters in swing states of Trump's poor treatment of the 41 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 3: island after Hurricane Maria, about the way he delayed aid 42 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 3: and then when he got there two weeks after a 43 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 3: devastating hurricane. 44 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 4: He threw a bunch of paper towels at the crowd. 45 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 3: And so, you know, it's a question of whether or 46 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 3: not these very large Puerto Rican specifically populations in these 47 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 3: swing states. And Marius talking about Pennsylvania. Half a million 48 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 3: Puerto Ricans live in Pennsylvania, in a state that Joe 49 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 3: Biden when he won last time, it was on eight 50 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 3: eighty thousand votes. So you know, we're talking about very 51 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 3: large numbers who could decide they're really not very happy 52 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 3: about what they saw four years more than four years 53 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 3: ago in the treatment of Puerto Ricans. 54 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 4: It was insulting and it could move the dial Heidi. 55 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 5: Of course, the flip side of this is a large 56 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 5: part of Individuals can also be turned off on the 57 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 5: President of the United States comments that half of Trump's 58 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 5: supporters are quote garbage and Kamala Harris is now having 59 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 5: to clean up Joe Biden's comments. Is he doing more 60 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 5: damage to her every time he goes out and speaks. 61 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 3: So I think that it was unfortunate that he used 62 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 3: that that that language, and it obviously harkened back to 63 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 3: to uh to comments that were made during the campaign 64 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 3: with with Trump and with with Hillary Clinton. 65 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 4: So you know, but. 66 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 3: Again, if you are going to it's really about a 67 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 3: narrow swath of voters. 68 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 4: And what can what can motivate them. 69 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 3: To change their decision or if they are turned off 70 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 3: of politics and just want to sit this election out, 71 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 3: what can make them actually get up out of their 72 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 3: house and actually cast that vote. And I don't I 73 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 3: don't know if press in Biden's comments, which we're not reflected, 74 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: we're not we're not re electing President Biden, if they 75 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 3: actually are going to move the dial for that very 76 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 3: important group of undecided or ambivalent voters. 77 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 5: How do how do you think she sticks the landing 78 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 5: when it comes to the economy the ft this morning 79 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 5: calls Kamala Harris's other electoral foe inflation. This continuously shows 80 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 5: up in polls. How does she distance herself in these 81 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 5: final days in these swing states from the current administration 82 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 5: when it comes to inflation. 83 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 4: So it's really it's a hard it's a hard narrative. 84 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 3: I mean, people are actually people are generally hurting from 85 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,119 Speaker 3: the fact that the goods, you know, the everyday goods, 86 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 3: cost more than they than they did pre COVID. I 87 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 3: guess what I would what I would suggest is that 88 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 3: you know, looking it's not just looking back over the 89 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 3: last four years, it's looking forward to what what a 90 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 3: blanket teariff policy across all you know, the whole the 91 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,119 Speaker 3: whole world of ten to twenty percent and sixty percent 92 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 3: on China, What that actually could mean for inflation? Well, 93 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 3: it's probably they're you know, those kind of tariffs are 94 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 3: inflationary tariffs. 95 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 4: We you know, we've had for many years. 96 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 3: We know what they do, what they're They're inflationary, and 97 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 3: it depends if they are tactical and targeted versus across 98 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 3: the board. 99 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 4: I don't think I don't think that. 100 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: That voters really understand that that that Trump, saying that 101 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 3: he is tariff man, can get into the Oval Office 102 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 3: day one and actually without any checks and balance, he 103 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 3: can actually implement his across the board tariff policy. 104 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 4: That would be inflationary. And what does that mean. 105 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 3: It means that it's going to impact consumers intermediate inputs, 106 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 3: like for every every business that's part of a supply chain. 107 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 4: You can count on retaliation. 108 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 3: You'll blow up all of our our FTAs with countries, 109 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 3: and our allies will push back pretty pretty heartily against 110 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 3: us in a world where we actually need our allies, 111 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 3: we don't need to alienate our allies. So I think 112 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 3: that there are you know, it's not only inflation, but 113 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 3: you could have both, you know, commercial inflation and and 114 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 3: geopolitical reactions that would be highly negative. What does the 115 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 3: FED do, We're talking about the FED for next week. 116 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 3: What does the FED do if they're facing you know, 117 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 3: challenges to inflation on the on one side, and then 118 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 3: spillovers that might impact credit markets, mortgages, company borrowing, You're 119 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 3: going to be in a very different, a very different 120 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 3: dynamic if we come January and. 121 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 4: You have massive across the board tariffs. 122 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: And post id or what are you watching in the 123 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: final days of the election race. 124 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 3: So you know, again it's the markets are are not 125 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 3: a good predictor of of of who's going to be 126 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 3: in this in this election, who's going to win this election. 127 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 3: But I do think that the fact that you've had 128 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,239 Speaker 3: a lot of women show up in early voting, You've 129 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 3: had and the gender divide plays very much into into 130 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 3: Harris's into Harris's camp. 131 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 4: The fact that. 132 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 3: You do have these narrow, these narrow populations, who can 133 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 3: actually you really determine the election one way or the other, 134 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: and we just don't know. Anyone who tells you they 135 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 3: know who's gonna win doesn't know what they're talking about. 136 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 3: We are neck and neck right now, and we're not 137 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 3: going to know until until the votes are finally counted, 138 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 3: and that might not be next next Tuesday, might not 139 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 3: be next week. 140 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 2: Don't say that, Heidi, hoping it's so low by THENI 141 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 2: do you appreciate your time as always, Hidi cree by 142 00:07:49,040 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: Redik of the Council on Farm Relations. Seth Carpenter, the 143 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 2: chief Global economist that Mark and Stanley is with us 144 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 2: around the table, Seth to sixteen. Should I ignore the 145 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 2: random number generator tomorrow morning at eight thirty Eastern if 146 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 2: it's weak based on the fact the jobless claims are 147 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 2: this slow? 148 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 6: Absolutely. I think if it's weak, even if today hadn't 149 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,119 Speaker 6: been two sixteen, you would have still ignored the random 150 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,119 Speaker 6: number generator. The bottom line is the labor market's actually 151 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 6: pretty healthy. I think the two sixteen is consistent with that. 152 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 6: I think the fact that you're getting a little bit 153 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 6: of a drift up in the continuing claim says, boy, 154 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 6: you know, maybe people aren't getting rehired as quickly, but 155 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 6: there's not a wave of layoffs, and that, for me 156 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 6: is what's fundamental. 157 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 2: The hurricane impact doesn't seem to be there. Last week 158 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 2: already predated. Those numbers were actually below the hurricane impact 159 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 2: the pre hurricane hit. And then you've got the strikes. 160 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 2: So we're not seeing any real mushrooming into the economy 161 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 2: off the back of these strikes either. How do you 162 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 2: frame a downside surprise like this. I'm still scratching my head. 163 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 2: What are we doing here down at two sixteen? 164 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 6: I mean, this is the question we keep asking ourselves. 165 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 6: So this whole expansion, we've been on the constructive side 166 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 6: of things. When it was hard landing versus soft landing, 167 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 6: we said soft landing. When it was late summer and 168 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 6: we got a week jobs report, we said, don't worry 169 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 6: about the economy as strong and people through rotten garbage 170 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 6: ass Untilda said, we were ugly and stupid. If we've 171 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 6: been wrong, it's because we've been insufficiently optimistic. And I 172 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 6: think these numbers are really consistent with a super healthy 173 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 6: job market. 174 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: So then why should the FED cut rates next week? 175 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 6: I think the Fed's view on this is going to be. 176 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 6: Inflation's coming down, it's clearly off its peaks, it's trending down. 177 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 6: The number we got today it is a little bit 178 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 6: of sort of wobbling around in it, but I think 179 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 6: the trend is still pretty clearly down, and so from 180 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 6: their perspective, you can still lower rates from where we are, 181 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 6: be restrictive, try to take a little bit more steam 182 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 6: out of the economy without jeopardizing the prospect of growth. 183 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 6: So I think they're trying to walk this very fine 184 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 6: balance of being tight but not too tight. 185 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 1: I'm looking right now at the PCEE data. Within all 186 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: of this, you see a strong labor market and see 187 00:09:55,760 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: pce inflation data that came in slightly above expectations. At 188 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: what point does that get people's attention? At what point 189 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: do central bankers start caring about the inflation rate again? 190 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 6: Well, I think we saw, for example, in Q one 191 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 6: of this year, they really cared a lot. Everyone was 192 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 6: gearing up for them to start cutting in the beginning 193 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 6: of the year, and then Q one data were strong 194 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 6: surprise to the upside, and they pushed off the rate 195 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 6: cuts obviously until September. So I think it needs two things. One, 196 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 6: a couple more months of upside surprises, because we really 197 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 6: have had things come down. You'll remember Chris Waller from 198 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 6: the FED. So the reason he went for fifty basis 199 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 6: points instead of twenty five was because inflation data had 200 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 6: surprised them to the upside. So a month or two 201 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 6: to the upside isn't going to change the fundamentals. And 202 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 6: then he needed to be compositionally. The stuff that we 203 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 6: know has a lot of inertia, like housing inflation that 204 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 6: sort of wobbled for a little while, it wasn't clear, 205 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,319 Speaker 6: and then it came down again. And I think as 206 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 6: long as those really core pieces no pun intended on inflation, 207 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 6: as long as there's really central parts of inflation keep 208 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 6: trending down, then I think they're going to feel comfortable. 209 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 5: Most voices on the FMC said they didn't want to 210 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 5: see to cherry in the labor market. 211 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 4: That was part of their reasons. 212 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:02,959 Speaker 6: Mission accomplished. 213 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 5: Right, Seriously, what do they come out and say in 214 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 5: terms of the assessment of the labor market on Thursday. 215 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 6: I think you're going to see words along the lines 216 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 6: of solid, robust, healthy. The unemployment rate is four point 217 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 6: two percent, so it's up off of the lows we 218 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 6: had had an unemployment rate that was around three and 219 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 6: a half percent. So I think you have to be 220 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 6: able to say that there's been some cooling. If you 221 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 6: look at the job openings data from where it was 222 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 6: when the labor mark was tight tightest, you have to 223 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 6: say there's been some cooling. So I think in that regard, 224 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 6: you know they're fine. The pendulum had swung a bit 225 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,719 Speaker 6: too far. People got a little bit too breathless over 226 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:44,080 Speaker 6: a couple of week months of jobs data. We're not deteriorating. 227 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 5: Let's talk about the other big event next week, and 228 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 5: that's the election. You're spending a lot of time talking 229 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 5: to clients and something that was interesting in your notes 230 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 5: is there seems to be differential for clients that are 231 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 5: in the United States and those abroad, and what is 232 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 5: that centering around. 233 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 6: So I think one of the key parts is tariffs. Right, 234 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 6: the elections going to have, from a top down macro perspective, 235 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 6: three key policy implications tariffs, immigration, and fiscal policy. And 236 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 6: to a person, when I'm oversees all investors are convinced 237 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 6: former President Trump, if re elected, will go back to 238 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 6: putting in tariffs. And there's just no doubt in their mind. 239 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 6: I think there's a bit more debate and difference of 240 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 6: opinion on this side of the Atlantic, people who think 241 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 6: either oh, well, it's going to be a negotiating tactic, 242 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 6: or if in fact he announces it and it ends 243 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 6: up being bad for the market, for the economy, then 244 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 6: it won't come through. So I think that's an interesting 245 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 6: dichotomy of views. 246 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,599 Speaker 2: You've got to work out who wins. You've got to 247 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 2: work out the make up the division of government, if 248 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 2: the risk one, if there's a sweep. If it's not 249 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 2: a sweep, then you've got to work out whether the 250 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 2: promise becomes reality once you've got there. Okay, let's just 251 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 2: deal with this. If you take everything that's been said 252 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 2: on the campaign trail, a stagflation reproposal from the Trump side, 253 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 2: is that how you see things at more con Stanley. 254 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 6: Absolutely, we were to literally take everything that's been said. 255 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 6: Let's just deal with tariffs that we were talking about before. 256 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 6: If you had in January sixty percent tariffs on everything 257 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 6: imported from China, ten percent tariffs imported from everything around 258 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 6: the world, I think that pushes up inflation, and that 259 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 6: probably happens first the numbers we've calculated are in the 260 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 6: nine tenths of a percentage point kind of boost, but 261 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 6: the dragged to growth could be as much as one 262 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 6: and a half percent. I mean, I think it really 263 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 6: is important, and that ignores the immigration side of things. 264 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 6: The reason we had three plus percent growth for a 265 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 6: year year and a half and inflation continuing to fall 266 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 6: is because we've had this big ad to the labor force. 267 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 2: How different is the Harris proposal as things stand when 268 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 2: you go through that big eighty two page document on 269 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 2: the website, eighty two pages long, when you go through that, 270 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 2: how different is the proposal? 271 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 6: Well, I mean, I think again, going back to teriffs 272 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,119 Speaker 6: as an example, I look at what the Biden administration 273 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 6: has done. They put tariffs on electric vehicles coming in 274 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 6: from China. Boy, that's almost entirely rhetorical, right. There aren't 275 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 6: that many electric vehicles that have been imported in the 276 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 6: United States from China, so it's not have anywhere near 277 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 6: the same effect. We can look back to twenty eighteen 278 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 6: twenty nineteen and see the hit to industrial production industrial 279 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 6: output from that wave of tariffs. I think there's a 280 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 6: pretty meaningful difference. 281 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 2: Markt anticipants a running around saying not a big deal, 282 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 2: We'll work through this. Stocks go up up into the right. 283 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 2: That's what the chat always looks like for a long time. 284 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 2: Do you think this does have the potential to really 285 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 2: redefine things years out this election? Do you think it's 286 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 2: not important? 287 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 6: I do think so. I do think so. The rejiggering 288 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 6: of the global supply chain, the rejiggering of global economic interactions, 289 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 6: that's real. That's been going on for some time. It 290 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 6: got accelerated with tariffs. I think this another round of tariffs, 291 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 6: another trade war, could in fact accelerate the rejiggering in 292 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 6: ways that maybe we can't fully anticipate. 293 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 2: Seth, it's got to see you as always, Thank you, sir. 294 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 2: Good luck over the next week. Seth campens there of 295 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 2: more ca and Stantley going into payrolls tomorrow, jumping in 296 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 2: the seat. Lindsay Rose, I've goma sex asset management. Let's 297 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: good to see you. 298 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 4: Good to see you. 299 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 2: Got to start with this economic data. Is there anything 300 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 2: not to like? Jobis claims GDP looks pretty. 301 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 7: Good, looks good, looks fine, looks quiet. I think that's 302 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 7: something that's a big relief right now. There is a 303 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 7: lot of volatility priced into the market. If you look 304 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 7: at the move index, which is looking at radevall over October, 305 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 7: it's gone, like you were saying, top to the right. 306 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 7: For equities, it has made a move for sure in October. 307 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 7: This is a good day of quiet. I think the 308 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 7: event will actually be month end at the end of 309 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 7: the day, not the data this morning wet me through. 310 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 7: Why so, there's actually going to be a pretty decent rebalancing. 311 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 7: So if you think about how bonds have performed in 312 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 7: October versus what's gone on with equities, you want to 313 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 7: shift your portfolio given the outperformance and equities you have 314 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 7: the normal month end extension, which happens always with indices 315 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 7: in the bond market, so there has to be kind 316 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 7: of this natural buying of duration. But there's going to 317 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 7: be this additional, much bigger thing of asset allocation at 318 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 7: equities into bonds. 319 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: So are you saying that essentially this is noise and 320 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: it's the technical unders that really will drive yields lower 321 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: regardless of what happens with all of these different events 322 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: next week. 323 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 7: Well, today's story is going to be the month end story. 324 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 7: The things that happen over the next week are actually 325 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 7: big beside from the data prints, we've got auctions, we've 326 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 7: got threes, we've got the bond, we have obviously the election, 327 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 7: and then we lead up to f OMC. So not 328 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 7: necessarily that yields are going to go lower for the 329 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 7: rest of the week. I think we're in a moment 330 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 7: of a lot of volatility between now and then. But 331 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 7: today's movement, I think is really month end. 332 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: Do you see a shift in the narrative though right now? 333 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: Or people have just been underestimating how strong this economy is, 334 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: and that has been the theme again and again and 335 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: yet again here as we wait for potentially weakness that 336 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: may not show up tomorrow in the jobs report. Is 337 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: there a sense that there could be a reacceleration in 338 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: inflation in a more meaningful way? Is that starting to 339 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: come back to the table and the discussions that you're having. 340 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, and that's been a big explanation for what's happened 341 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 7: with yields. I mean, the amazing thing is the FED 342 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 7: cut fifty basis points and we're now six d basis 343 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 7: for one's higher across the curve. That is pretty tremendous, 344 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,719 Speaker 7: And a big part of that is a concern about 345 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 7: inflation because growth just is that good. But I think 346 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 7: on a going forward, we've got a lot of noise 347 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,400 Speaker 7: that's going to happen in the next week, but things 348 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 7: are going to calm down and I think we'll have 349 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 7: a lot more certainty. And the way we actually are 350 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 7: talking with clients right now is that you've got a 351 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 7: huge opportunity with this move up in yields. The economy 352 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 7: is good. The FED has the power to do what 353 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 7: it needs to do. And where we were a month 354 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 7: ago was much lower yielts or a little bit past that, 355 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 7: earlier than September eighteenth, earlier than the cut was. You're 356 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 7: waiting on the FED to see if they are going 357 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 7: to go and how much they're going to go. Well, 358 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 7: now you actually have an entry point of higher yields 359 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 7: and you know that the Fed's going that's a home 360 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 7: run and this is a great opportunity to be in 361 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 7: fixed income. 362 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 5: Is there a chance they skip though and push this 363 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 5: decision to November December. 364 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 7: There's always some probability around skip, but we think the 365 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 7: conversation around skip is really something of twenty twenty five. 366 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 7: We feel pretty good that the Fed's going to go 367 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 7: twenty five next week. They're going to go twenty five 368 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 7: again in December. That puts them in a really good spot. 369 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 7: They've done some hard work at chopping some wood there 370 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 7: of one hundred basis points. Then they can pause and 371 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 7: survey what's going on. 372 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 5: They have to pause, right because policy in twent twenty five. 373 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 5: Does anyone have any idea what that's going to look like? 374 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 4: We do not know right now. 375 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 7: I think you're absolutely right, but they will start to 376 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 7: have an inclination. We'll obviously know a lot more. We 377 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 7: may not know an election day who's actually one and 378 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 7: how everything else shakes out, but we'll know pretty soon 379 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 7: and what those policies do look like. It's going to 380 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,719 Speaker 7: take time, though, to your point, to implement them. And 381 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 7: so for us right now, I think a lot of 382 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 7: people want to talk about how do you trade the election? 383 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 7: It's not about trading the election, right It's about where 384 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 7: do you want to be from a long term portfolio allocation. 385 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 7: For us, we think it's really important from a strategic 386 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 7: value perspective to get bonds into your portfolio, and we 387 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 7: think there's no time like the present. 388 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 2: So treasury is a big pace of that. Given the 389 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 2: rise we've seen in yodes across the curve by about 390 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 2: fifty basis points. How YOD spreads a super time on 391 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 2: a historical basis two seventy six. Right now, how do 392 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 2: you frame that for clients at the moment? What's the 393 00:18:57,880 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 2: opportunity look like? In coporate credit and. 394 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 4: A corporate credit is tight. 395 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 7: But I think what's so amazing right now is that 396 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 7: you've got a ton of volatility in the rates market. 397 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 7: We've had no volatility in the credit market. So what's 398 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 7: behind that? So we start to unpack it. What's behind 399 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 7: that is there's not a recession. Balance sheets are strong. 400 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 7: Management companies are doing the right thing. But when you 401 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 7: go underneath the hood of the car and look at 402 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 7: what's happening in high yield, something that's flagging for us 403 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 7: is just how well Triple cs so the lowest of 404 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 7: low in high yield have performed on the past month. 405 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 7: That to us is a little bit of a complacency indicator. 406 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 7: So not all those companies make sense, not all those 407 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 7: balance sheets make sense, and it has been off to 408 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 7: the races for Triple C's. That for US says this 409 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 7: is really important to have an active manager in this 410 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 7: environment because yes, maybe Triple c's did well this month. 411 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 7: Long term, there are a lot of companies there that 412 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:49,439 Speaker 7: aren't going to do well, and you want to make 413 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 7: sure you're in the right spot. 414 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 2: How were you navigating? What are the right spots? So 415 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 2: imagine there's an uping quality bias. What are the right 416 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 2: spots right now? In corporate America? 417 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,360 Speaker 7: Right for us, it's really kind of a curve thing 418 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 7: and a quality thing. We've spoken before about like the 419 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 7: front end of the corporate curve. We think that that's 420 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 7: going to do a lot better than the back end. 421 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 7: So that's how we're positioned in terms of maturities, and 422 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 7: then we are down in quality and investment grade. Triple 423 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 7: B companies are doing all the right things to stay 424 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 7: investment grade. They don't want to be in high yield. 425 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 7: And then in high yield we're up in quality in 426 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 7: those double b's and single bees and specific names that 427 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 7: we like. 428 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 1: Do you expect more tech related issueans coming into the 429 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 1: fore not necessarily tied to tech, but tied to some 430 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,919 Speaker 1: of the investments in the infrastructure around them that you 431 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: expect them and they're talking about having. 432 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 7: To make Yeah, there's definitely going to be CAPEX and 433 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 7: it's interesting you bring up the capex expenditures on tech 434 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 7: that is actually back to areas of corporate credit we 435 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 7: have to think about and be more cautious on, one 436 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 7: of which is utilities. When it comes to spending, that's 437 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 7: a spend we're actually really concerned about in terms of 438 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 7: the capex that's needed for going green. So that kind 439 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 7: of the drivers of who needs to spend and for 440 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 7: what and are they going to be worthwhile projects or 441 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 7: are they really just wanting to be on a drain 442 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 7: in regulatory that really guides the sectors that we like 443 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 7: and those that we stay away from. 444 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 2: It's a fascinating sector right now, that's for sure. Lindsay. 445 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 2: Is wonderful to catch up with you, as always, appreciate it. 446 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 2: Thank you, Lindsay Rosma there of Gorm and Sachs. This 447 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 2: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, 448 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 2: angiot politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg 449 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 2: TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. 450 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else 451 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 2: you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and 452 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app