WEBVTT - Trump Weighs Imposing Copper Import Tariffs in Weeks, Not Months 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.520 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.479 Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.799 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:23.040 us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.160 Can we bring you all the top news in business 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.360 and economics and finance. There are lens of our Bloomberg 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.160 Intelligence folks. They cover two thousand companies and one hundred 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.680 and thirty industries all around the world. They also cover commodities, 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:34.159 and for that we go to Mike and Glohan, Bloomberg 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:37.199 Intelligence senior commodity strategist. Mike. The news that Bloomberg broke 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:40.720 yesterday is that US tariffs on copper imports would be 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:44.680 coming within several weeks before a conclusion that was going 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:46.960 to take like two hundred and seventy days. Can we 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.000 just do like a primer here when we say copper imports, 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:52.159 were talking like the stuff that comes out of the ground. 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.800 Are we talking like refined things? Are we talking like 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.000 copper wires? Do we have an idea yet of what 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:57.520 that looks like? 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:00.560 Well, for me, it's a refined copper. 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:05.560 The US imports about fifty percent, one of the few 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.640 commodities that we have a deficit of. Obviously, it's spiking up, 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.560 but what you mentioned is still it hasn't happened yet. 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:16.319 Market's anticipating up to twenty five percent tariffs, and the 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:20.720 price the CME US traded copper has jumped about twenty 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:23.720 percent premium versus ALMA traded copper. So it's already priced 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:25.800 in and we still haven't had it. And I think 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:29.040 we're at the point where the market the Trump administrators 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:30.640 is going to be realized. Okay, Yeah, we need to 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:35.839 kind of reduce inflation, increase American productivity in American onshoing 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:38.360 production to US. If we spite the price of copper 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.600 too much, that's not going to help our goals. So 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:42.800 I'm kind of worried now that copper is at that 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:43.560 huge premium. 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:44.600 It's the highest price ever. 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:46.920 And so give you example, right us Coppyer right now 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:49.080 is a break down right now about five dollars and 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:49.960 thirty cents a pound. 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:51.200 It's the highest ever. 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:55.120 The equivalent in London is about four dollars and fifty cents. 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.400 So can we just all explain that for a second. 0:01:58.320 --> 0:01:59.400 Yes, please? Is that. 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:00.840 It's been a light bulb. 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:02.240 For me today because I did all explain this to 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:05.440 polling commerce great, but in fairness, he asked, So the 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.520 Comax price, which is the US listed price, is by pound, 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.320 and that's versus tons, which is in the London exchange, 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.520 and there's two thousand pounds per ton, So that's how 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:16.200 you get the price to scrap and seeing kind of. 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.880 Where we're at, you wire, Mike, do you arbitrash at 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:20.600 do you it's moniest people start trush? 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:23.519 Oh yeah, well they're doing it now. Yeah, Alex is 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:25.799 all from a trader standpoint. That's why I look at it, Saratra. 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.800 So I just take that London price converted to pounds 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:30.519 and you can see over time it's been the same 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:33.480 spread forever since we have data since nineteen ninety seven 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.679 for that, and now it's twenty percent higher in the US. 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:37.640 That's just never happened. So I think what that is. 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.880 That's indicative of the how profound these tariffs are. 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:43.600 I mean, this is a shift in the global world order. 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:44.919 Post World War Two. 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:46.320 Well, the rest of the world was able to depend 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:48.120 on exporting stuff to the US. 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:49.240 That's changing now. 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.240 Copper is one of the things we do import. But 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:53.240 look at things like crueil. We have a surplus to 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:56.320 cr crudels down, we have a surplus of grains corn, 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:58.840 So I mean sweet, they're having pressure coppers at the 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:00.360 forefront right now. I just look at it in the 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.680 short term. This is a trader's trade. I look at 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.040 it as a trader. I'm like, yeah, I might be 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.600 structuring put strategies. I've been wrong so far, admitted, But 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:09.720 you know what the next in one tweet, it can 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:12.120 drop twenty percent and just go right back to parody 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:14.000 with what's trading in the rest of the world. 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:17.040 And is that how you think about valuation in this market, 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:20.160 the copper market. Is it Chicago versus lineners? And another 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:22.760 way to get a sense of val valuation? 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.120 Are we stretched? Well? I love using that word in 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:26.920 this case, Paul. 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:30.160 What usually happens if if you can identify spikes and 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.680 commodizy and be on board people are doing that in copper, 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.440 You're doing fine. The point is, almost every time you 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:38.120 get an aberration and a commodity spikes like this, it 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.200 always go down. What's the most recent example, Eggs? I 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:42.960 mean they spike up for a little while, we find 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:44.680 supply cut off the man and they go down. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:46.440 So just a question how far it goes. 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.600 What's unique in this case is last year we could 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:51.280 really see in futures driving that price higher. 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:54.400 Manage money, hedge funds, future positions, we're driving it higher. 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:56.640 They got up to about thirty two percent of total 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:59.280 copp and open interests. Now they're nine to ten percent. 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.560 They don't really care because I think they know what's happening. 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:04.240 We're squeezing a few shorts. You just can't see how 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:07.080 obnoxious it is. And at some point, I just don't 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:09.560 know how it can stay up here, particularly if the 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:11.720 US stock market continues to trickle down, which is the 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.120 base case from people like Gina Martin Aadams. 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:17.280 So using these arms to trade like is nothing new, 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:19.120 and we see a lot of these dislocations a lot too, 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.120 especially if you factor in Shanghai copper as well, and 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.400 like how you then store it and then playing it. Typically, 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.760 when these distortions happen, how do they wind up resolving? 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:32.720 Well, usually it's some kind of fear futures. You have 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:34.920 to move copper towards the US. How you get there 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:38.599 into inventory is kind of complicated. Usually it's it's just 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.800 a matter of how why it goes before it goes 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:44.000 back to disparity, back to parody, and question is how 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:46.159 it does that, And that's key things I'm looking forward to. 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.720 What can make that happen. First of all, time, it's 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:51.480 not gonna last too long. It's just markets will markets 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.920 will move to where prices will benefit. And then the 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.520 key thing is you have to worry about if you're 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:57.600 long US copper, you have to worry about just the 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.080 next social media a tweet from a Trump administration fish 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.080 might say, yeah, we were going to do twenty five 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:04.800 percent terffs, Maybe we're going to do ten to fifteen 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:07.000 percent because the copper price is telling us we might 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:08.000 be a big extreme here. 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:09.680 So there's a lot of nuances. 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:11.280 But the thing is, the risk is you can turn 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:13.479 around one day and what's been up thirty percent this 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:16.200 year can drop thirty percent or twenty percent in a heartbeat. 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.920 All right, So we've talked about terraffs and copper, other 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.320 other commodities that you're paying attention to, Mike, as it 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:21.920 relates to. 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:25.960 Tariffs, that's the main one steal is in there. 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:27.680 But I'm steel's kind of a bit out of my 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:31.440 purview because it doesn't trade a lot in actively trade 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:33.200 of futures, but copper is the number one right now. 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:34.560 But I like to point out the key thing that's 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:38.000 really happening is because we're having this trade war, I 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:41.000 guess trade war you could call it. It's the surplus 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:43.120 commodities in the US that are major under pressure, and 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:46.400 that means crude oil, liquid fuels, natural gas potentially at 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:48.960 a peak around four and the grains. If we do 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:52.200 have truce in Ukraine Russia, grains are already in the 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:53.640 bear market, will pressure them lower. 0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:55.719 They wouldn't have to depend on the US drought to 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:56.640 go up in my view. 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.760 And gold, what do you think still going to rock 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:00.480 and high here? 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:02.960 That can still blush away? 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:05.240 I see goal that it's reached a good threshold of 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.400 three thousand dollars and ounce, it's pretty much overbought. 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:11.479 It basically needs bull fuel, and that bull fuel the 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:14.360 top source of that be the US stock market going down, 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:17.400 which we know is basically deflation or good for gold, 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.840 would probably maybe tilt over and help you as longbos. 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.839 All right, Mike, really appreciate you, Thank you so much. 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:29.240 Mike mcglohm Boomerg Intelligence Senior Commodity strategistm. 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:30.920 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:34.400 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.560 with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:41.080 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.080 Sally Bigwall joints us she's Bloomberg US Finance team leader 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:46.359 on a story. I like to read it, and just 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:48.760 by definition, it's going to be one of the most 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:52.040 read stories on the Bloomberg termninel Today. Wall Street bonus 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:54.520 pool surges to a record forty seven point five billion 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:58.839 for twenty twenty four, So, Sally, I mean a good 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.320 year on Wall Street. It seems like people are getting paid, 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:02.200 aren't they? 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:05.800 People are getting paid. I think it was largely driven 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:09.640 by a grete twenty twenty four, we started to see 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.080 deals bouncing back, but I think a big part of 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:16.120 this was also the volatility in trading created by the election. 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:19.840 I mean, we reported in December that executives a top 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:23.160 the biggest banks were locking in plans to award traders 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.120 and deal makers the biggest bonuses since the pandemic, with 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.360 some hikes as much as ten percent or more. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.560 How much of this is actual results versus just the 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.200 competition for talent. 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:37.120 With a little bit of a result sprinkled in. 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:41.520 I think this is probably really more reflective of the results. 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.280 But obviously lifting bonuses faster can help ensure that employees 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.160 stay stay around for more business to come. And initially 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:52.080 the beginning of this year and toward the end of 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.840 last year, you know, we expected a big deal rebound, 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:58.120 so that seemed much more important than it does perhaps 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.040 now that things are a little more uns on Trump's 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:04.560 tariff policies, which are kind of clouding that rebound, which 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:08.560 in turn sort of makes the talent less of an 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:09.960 in demand thing. Potentially. 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:12.320 One of the more interesting parts of the story is 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:17.080 that Wall Street employment has hit record levels. Now, I 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:19.840 kind of thought this whole AI thing and automation and 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:23.960 would have maybe cause head counter maybe come down, but 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.600 there's still a lot of people working on global Wall Street. 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:30.080 That is correct. I think the trend has generally been 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.200 for employment to go up at Wall Street firms. Despite this, 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:35.240 I think because so many of them are trying to 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:40.160 modernize and improve their technology, that has caused them to 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.600 need to hire more people and perhaps you know, and 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:44.880 a lot of them also give this message that even 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:48.760 with the advent of AI and using AI, actually we 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.720 still need humans in order to choose. 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:53.560 Humans. 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.200 I mean, hey, as media people, let's take it. Let's 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.280 take the win where we can get it. I guess 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:02.600 the question is does this kind of pay out last? Because, 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:04.760 as you mentioned rightly, that em and a boom that 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.280 we've been waiting for hasn't happened. The IPO market being 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:09.640 wide open has barely happened. We have a couple that 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.400 are squeaking through and until the uncertainty settles down, like, 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:15.480 it's hard to see that actually panning out. 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:18.160 Yeah, I mean the banks have a lot of the 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:21.880 bank executives are now outwardly saying that certain things are 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:25.760 on pause, certain things are frozen because big sort of deals, 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.160 big companies with deals, they absolutely don't want to come 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:32.520 out and hit the market in this sort of uncertain environment. 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.760 We have seen a few but the general message that 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:38.800 Wall Street is very open about is that things are 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:40.360 on a bit of a holding pattern at the moment. 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.520 He stally, can I ask a quick question, I like 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.600 the ones about money because anyway, well, now from. 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.439 The peanut gallery over here how much of the local economy, 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:51.600 and I'm talking in New York State, New York City, Connecticut, 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:57.160 New Jersey depend on Wall Street for tax revenue and 0:09:57.360 --> 0:09:58.400 et cetera, and so forth. 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:02.080 Well, Wall Street is responsible for seventeen point seven percent 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:04.480 of all economic activity in the city. 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:06.840 Really, see were important. 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:12.240 And Wall Street also accounted for about nineteen percent of 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:15.600 New York State's tax revenue between twenty three and twenty four, 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.640 twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. And the estimates 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:22.720 we got today are that for twenty twenty four bonuses 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.760 they'll generate about six hundred million more in state income tax. 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:31.440 And obviously this is very important, particularly as New York 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:35.760 City is sort of struggling somewhat with potential budget gaps 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.920 created by cuts to federal funding. And New York City, 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.040 you know that relies heavily on federal funding for various 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:45.600 programs like Medicaid and the Essential Plan, so it does 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:46.200 have an importance. 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.280 Here here's another great data point in the story. New 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:52.320 York Cities sheriff securities industry jobs naturally has declined to 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:55.160 eighteen percent from about thirty three percent and nineteen ninety 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:57.920 as financial firms move jobs to other regions. 0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:59.119 To drive down costs Slarida. 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.400 Yeah, and it's like Goldman Sacks has got to get 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.480 a big place in Salt Lake. Yeah, salt Lake. I 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:06.000 mean they're all over there, just lower Clow. 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:08.040 You don't have to be here necessarily when you can 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:09.360 go to a place with good weather. 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:12.679 Right, Deutsche Bank has a big, big place down in 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.640 Jacksonville for example. You know, so you don't have to 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:17.480 send these jobs off to India. You can just put 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.520 them to the Midwest or the South or somewhere else, 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:22.000 right me on that, Yeah, so interesting. 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.040 Sally, Thanks love, We really appreciate it's a mustery guys. 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:27.080 It's always really fun to dissect those stories. Sally Bank 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.959 Well joining us on that Bloomberg US Finance team leader. 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:36.319 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.760 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.960 with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:46.000 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:50.600 Andrew sibnow joints us here. He's the CEO of International Paper. 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.480 IP is the ticker. Put it into your Bloomberg terminally 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:56.520 joints us here in our Bloomberg Interactives studios. Fact that 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:58.679 you're in our studio makes me believe that you had 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.240 an investor day we did yesterday. 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:02.640 Yeah, we had an investor d yesterday. 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.559 Green What was the theme of the investor day today 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:06.680 that you had yesterday? 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:09.520 Transformation? Okay, it's really about the transformation. I heard in 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.240 the opening talking about international paper. Of course it's in 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.040 our name, and so people think global paper. And the 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:18.200 reality is is we're a packaging company now, so almost 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:20.160 one hundred percent sustainable packaging. 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:21.120 With the acquisition of. 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.080 DA Smith North America and Europe, we're number one in 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:26.360 both places, and we're all focused on the customer and 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:30.560 their packaging needs. You mentioned Chewy before, great customer for 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.880 us and a wonderful opportunity to build their branding to 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.080 help them be successful. That's what we're all about, is 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:37.640 transforming into a packaging company. 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.360 So something that definitely came up is value over volume. 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:41.960 You want to get the most out of what you're 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.680 doing rather than just the numbers. Ups is doing something 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:46.720 very similar and the short term, there's a lot of 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.120 angst and pain kind of around that before you get 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:49.880 to that volume. 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.560 After that value growth talk me through the cycle. 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.240 Yeah, So if you think about we were our own 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:57.559 worst enemy. So for years and years and years, we 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:01.200 would chase volume at the most inopportunity time. And so 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:02.959 what we've effectively had to do is go back to 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:04.920 the marketplace and say we need to be paid for 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:05.840 the value. 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:07.880 That we're bringing. And that's what we do. We come 0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:08.760 into the marketplace. 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:11.080 We're trying to help you get your goods to the 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:12.920 place do you want them to be, whether it's fast 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.720 moving consumer goods or it's industrial goods, that's what we're. 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:16.040 Trying to help. 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.079 But we've got to make sure that we're taking care 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.560 of all of our constituents, and frankly, we weren't, and 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:22.839 so we've got to get that value proposition right. I 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:24.839 think we've made that switch over the last couple of years. 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.480 We're seeing that start to play out appropriately and we're 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.080 getting paid for the value that we bring. 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:35.280 You're building a state of the art box plant in Waterloo, Iowa, 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:37.959 So talk about onshoing. That's big time. Two hundred and 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.120 sixty million dollars. Talk to us about that investment. What 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:40.920 are you trying to do there? 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:42.719 So what a lot of people don't understand about the 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:46.120 packaging business. Certainly the paper based packaging business is all 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.480 of the business has done within two hundred miles a 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.800 two hundred mile radius of a plant. And because you 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:54.240 can't air as expensive as ship, and so you've got 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:54.720 to be close. 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.679 So we want to be close to our best customers. 0:13:56.679 --> 0:14:01.440 That's protein Alley, So that area there's protein out, Protein Alley. 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:06.240 Really think of the beef and the chicken before and 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:06.959 so if you. 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.600 Think about kind of kind of where protein happens in 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.480 the United States from if you think of the South 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:14.199 all the way through the Midwest through there. We want 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.040 to be close to our customers. We have a great 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:18.679 customer relationships. We need a modern facility. We're going to 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:20.200 have the I think it's going to be the largest 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:24.000 facility in the US that does paper based packaging. And 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.440 we want to make sure because we're shipping in from 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.560 other parts of the country now service those customers very ineffective, 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:30.320 very inefficient. 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:32.400 We want to be local, we want to be close. 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:34.880 We want to drive customer service and innovation as close 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:35.880 to the customer. 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:35.920 As we can. 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.720 International is in your name, So what how are you 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:43.760 affected by potential tariffs? And everyone sort of every country 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:47.920 shift to nationalism and whenever that way that is energy nationalism, 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.160 goods nationalism, supply to nationalism. 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:51.640 Where do you play and that has affect you? 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:52.400 Yeah, so we are. 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.400 We're definitely international company, principally North America and Europe. 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.360 We're about two thirds North America and a third Europe. 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.120 We don't ship actually a lot cross borders, believe it 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:02.720 or not, so that doesn't happen. So we're not being 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.520 impacted directly by tariffs with crossboarder trade, but we're impacted 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.640 by the economy, and so as tariffs impact the economy, 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:11.640 that will have an impact of us. So we're watching 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:13.600 what's going on and we see it in our numbers. 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.120 We've seen the volatility in the last month or so, 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:18.480 so we're keeping a close eye on that. 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.400 But that's really how it impacts us. 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:24.320 What are your customers saying about their outlook for the economy. 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:26.440 I would think that you would have a finger on 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:27.000 the pulse of that. 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:29.240 Yeah, I think we do have a pretty good pulse. 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.960 I think there's uncertainty, if we're fair about that. The 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.920 last month or two or so, there's been some real uncertainty, 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:38.760 and I think, well, nothing's really happened. Yet it's caused 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.200 people to retrench a little bit and ask, hey, do 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:42.880 I want to make that investment right now? 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:44.840 Can I hold off on spending money right now? And 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:45.440 let's see. 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.560 Look, my belief is these things wash out over time, 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.320 and we make investments for decades. We don't make investments 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:54.960 for quarters or even years. And so we're thinking about 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:56.120 investments for the long. 0:15:56.000 --> 0:16:00.359 Term in terms of say, hiring labor, how you're managing 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:04.280 the business. Is it a retrenchman time, is it expansion? 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:05.600 How would you define it. 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:05.840 For you guys? 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:07.600 Actually, interestingly, it's a little bit of both. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:07.880 Right. 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.560 What I mean by that you have yeah, you can. Actually, 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:11.600 so when you think about. 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.680 That, you have certain parts of your business that aren't 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.440 as strong or aren't as healthy, and you have other 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.880 parts that are very healthy. So, as an example, protein 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.720 alley very healthy for us. Let's make investments in water, 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.000 rely on it. Let's move the the let's move people 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.080 in this investment. There things that are weaker, things that 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.560 are struggling or markets you're not as strong in, you 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:30.320 have to retrench. 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:32.160 So you have to do blame as those. 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.640 Well you've got you've got softness in parts of the 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.840 economy kind of broad base. You've got to be concerned 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.040 about things that are going to shrink over time and things, 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.000 you know, things like e commerce that are strong, things 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.200 like protein and fresh vegetables, those are strong. 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:44.800 You want to move towards those things. 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:47.560 And uh and so you know, we want to move 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:49.640 our investment towards the parts of the economy that we 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.560 think are going to expand over time, location and industry 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:56.359 and and really you know, grow on those strengths. 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:00.000 So to the extent, if I think about your company, 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:02.720 I think about a GDP top line growth story, is 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:04.200 there anything different than that? 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:05.080 I mean, that's it? 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:05.720 And is it just so? 0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:09.400 Is your business really about managing the cost of managing margin? 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:10.119 No, it's not. 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.320 Ok Yes, you always have to manage your cost, right, 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.760 But the key thing is you want to align yourself 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.120 with where growth is. Okay, I think that's the biggest thing. 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.080 Bottom line though, is we're going to generally follow the economy. 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:22.720