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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Spreading the court ten seconds or maining to just go

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Speaker 1: show up to the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket. It's the true for the wind god

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Speaker 2: a miracle. I'm just the water hit that one from.

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Speaker 3: The parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm Mike

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Speaker 1: Caliberys joined by Greg Waddell. We are gonna break down

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Speaker 1: the first four in Dayton. Can't get to the main

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Speaker 1: course until you get through the appetizers.

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Speaker 2: And I gotta tell you, every single.

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Speaker 1: Year, my expectations are always a little bit low about

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Speaker 1: how interested I'll be in these games, and then I

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Speaker 1: find myself at about halftime of the first game, all right,

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Speaker 1: I'm in.

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Speaker 2: I'm hooked.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad I have action on it, because not only

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Speaker 1: can this be a fun showcase for those sixteen seeds

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Speaker 1: playing against each other having a national captive audience, but

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Speaker 1: also history has proven that the eleven seeds it can

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Speaker 1: be a springboarding get momentum going into the next game

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Speaker 1: on Thursday or Friday, and teams have certainly made deep

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Speaker 1: runs off of that. So it's interesting you can talk

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Speaker 1: yourself into some of these teams don't deserve to be there.

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Speaker 1: We'll get there with North Carolina in a moment, but certainly,

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Speaker 1: if history is any indicator, they can get hot and

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Speaker 1: it can mean something for their chances to make the

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Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen. All right, Greg, what are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: this crop of first four matchups in Dayton.

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Speaker 4: Well, I've mentioned this on our reaction show. I am

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Speaker 4: frustrated that North Carolina is here. I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: selfish of me, but I don't like watching this Tar

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Speaker 4: Heels team. I've certainly enjoyed fading them repeatedly this season,

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Speaker 4: and I'm gonna spoil this but one more chance.

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Speaker 2: To do it, I'm gonna do it. I just as

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Speaker 2: a fan of this sport.

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Speaker 4: I'm frustrated that a team like West Virginia is out

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Speaker 4: at the field and a team that had countless opportunities

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Speaker 4: to pick up the marquee win needed and just repeatedly

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Speaker 4: dug a grave for themselves and jumped right in it.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how we can reward that in this.

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Speaker 4: Era of college basketball where these super conferences have come together,

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Speaker 4: and you know, fourteen SEC teams made it rightfully so

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Speaker 4: because they proved what they're capable of when given those

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Speaker 4: chances in UNC had a really nice non conference schedule,

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Speaker 4: they lost every game that mattered. They had three chances

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Speaker 4: against Duke, a chance against Clemson, a chance against Louisville.

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Speaker 2: None of them came to fruition.

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Speaker 4: So my honest answer is, I'm frustrated we have to

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Speaker 4: watch North Carolina, but I think there is some intrigue elsewhere.

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Speaker 4: I'm really looking forward to Zavior Texas, and I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, I never strongly feel that there's a sixteen

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Speaker 4: seed in the first four that has like potential to

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Speaker 4: go on a run. That's just it's incredibly rare to

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Speaker 4: have that happen. But there's at least some stylistic points

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Speaker 4: that make these games interesting from a viewing perspective that

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Speaker 4: I think betters can capitalize on.

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Speaker 1: All right, well, I mean, listen, I'm trying to remember

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Speaker 1: the exact quote. Oh it was Boise had more wins

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Speaker 1: over ACC tournament teams in this field than North Carolina did.

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Speaker 2: They.

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Speaker 1: It's just there are certain elements and I understand they

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Speaker 1: can just point, they can cherry pick, they can look

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Speaker 1: at ken Palm and they look at those ratings. I

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Speaker 1: know they added Torvik to their resumes that they were

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Speaker 1: looking at this year. They can come up with a

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Speaker 1: talking point, but that then you walk out Bubba to

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Speaker 1: be able to handle those questions not a great look.

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Speaker 1: I either go with an absolute Soviet style media blackout

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Speaker 1: or have somebody who can handle the pressure of those

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Speaker 1: questions and not seem like a biased, you arbiter of truth,

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Speaker 1: whatever that is. For the committee, I still think they

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Speaker 1: struggle with this, and I think the reality is that.

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Speaker 2: There's no repercussions.

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Speaker 1: If they clearly fumble it, they can just say, well,

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Speaker 1: next year, we'll have three or four different committee members

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Speaker 1: and there'll be a different chairperson or spokesperson whatever, and.

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Speaker 2: We just move on.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's also an indication that the teams

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Speaker 1: that made it in right at the cut line, and

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Speaker 1: the teams are on the outside looking in.

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Speaker 2: They only have themselves to blame for that.

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Speaker 1: So I'm hoping that that means we can push off

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Speaker 1: expansion even for one more year. So I'm hoping for

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Speaker 1: keep it at sixty eight. It's perfect the way that

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Speaker 1: it is. All Right, enough of that shadow, let's jump

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Speaker 1: into the actual games. We'll start on Tuesday night a

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Speaker 1: sixteen Verse sixteen matchup the Saint Francis Red Flash against

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Speaker 1: the Alabama State Hornets. The Hornets are a short favorite

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Speaker 1: play about three three and a half out here in

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Speaker 1: the market, one thirty nine and a half for that total.

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Speaker 1: The Red Flash are back in the Big Dance for

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Speaker 1: the first time since nineteen ninety one, which is very

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Speaker 1: exciting for them and their fan base. And when they

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Speaker 1: were in the tournament, they at least covered. Back in

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Speaker 1: ninety one, they played against Arizona, who was a two seed.

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Speaker 1: They were a fifteen seed, and the Red Flash shot

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Speaker 1: thirteen for twenty five from downtown and it was a

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Speaker 1: sweat free cover.

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Speaker 2: In this spot.

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Speaker 1: Though I look at the Red Flash as a team,

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Speaker 1: that's just you know, it's when we're recording this lease

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Speaker 1: at Saint Patrick's, say they've had a four leak four

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Speaker 1: leaf clover the entire time. They've had all the luck

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Speaker 1: in the world to be able to make it. You

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Speaker 1: look at their three NEEC tournament games. They won all

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Speaker 1: three by three points apiece. The teams they played couldn't

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Speaker 1: throw it in the ocean.

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Speaker 2: Their opponents scored.

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Speaker 1: Fifty five, sixty eight and forty three. A Central Connecticut

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Speaker 1: State team that you know had handled them in the

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Speaker 1: pre game Long Island in the Semis was up fifteen

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Speaker 1: on them in halftime. Then they couldn't you know, make

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Speaker 1: a shot in the second half. So the question here

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Speaker 1: is does their good luck run out because they certainly

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Speaker 1: give up the opposing team's opportunities to score.

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Speaker 2: They turn it over way too much, and.

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Speaker 1: Alabama State is a team athletically that can take advantage

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Speaker 1: of it. Speaking of you know, getting hot at the

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Speaker 1: right time, Alabama State eighth in momentum in the field

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Speaker 1: of sixty eight. They won ten of their last eleven

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Speaker 1: straight up. Their only loss in that stretch came by

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Speaker 1: two points, I believe to Pethunman Cookman, petuon Cookman.

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Speaker 2: The swag overall.

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Speaker 1: By the way, in terms of sixteen verse sixteen matchups

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Speaker 1: in Dayton, it's been why to side with them because

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Speaker 1: they're three and one straight up in three and one

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Speaker 1: against the spread in their last four meetings in Dayton.

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Speaker 1: I think the Hornets are going to win this one.

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Speaker 1: In transition, their top thirty and fast break points and TJ.

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Speaker 1: Madlock if you're looking for a little extra fun. In

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Speaker 1: terms of a player prop, he's one of the best

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Speaker 1: rebounding guards in all of college basketball. I think he's

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Speaker 1: going to go for ten rebounds. This would be this

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Speaker 1: fourth game out of the last five going for double

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Speaker 1: digits on the glass. I think it'll be ugly, as

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Speaker 1: most swack games are. You know, Saint Francis isn't exactly

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Speaker 1: scorch and the nets with their shooting percentages either. But

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Speaker 1: I think if it is an ugly game, Alabama State

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Speaker 1: it has enough in transition and turnovers and what they

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Speaker 1: do on the glass to eat this one out. I'll

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Speaker 1: say they win by five, so I don't mind laying

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Speaker 1: the three and a half. Where do you come down

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Speaker 1: on this matchup between the NEC and the swack yea.

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Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. I'm glad you mentioned TJ.

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Speaker 4: Madlock because for the casual college basketball viewer, this is

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Speaker 4: one of those father son coach duos that like make

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Speaker 4: a game like this intriguing.

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Speaker 2: TJ.

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Speaker 4: Madlock the son of the Alabama State head coach Tony Madlock,

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Speaker 4: and a very unique game to him, as you mentioned

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Speaker 4: just in a really awesome rebounding guard. He has three

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Speaker 4: Ken Palm MVPs in the final month of this season,

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Speaker 4: and I think there's a world where he ends up

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Speaker 4: being the best player on the floor in this game,

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Speaker 4: which would be fun because it's fun when those guys

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Speaker 4: have that sort of narrative boost and shine in the

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Speaker 4: big stage and make a name for themselves. But to me,

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Speaker 4: this game is entirely about the turnover margin that I

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Speaker 4: think Alabama State is going to create some separation with here.

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Speaker 4: They are legitimately great at taking care of the basketball,

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Speaker 4: fifth in the entire sport.

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Speaker 2: At avoiding turnovers.

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Speaker 4: Offensively, it's about the only thing that either of these

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Speaker 4: two teams does well at a national level. But that's

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Speaker 4: something that I think is going to completely swingly game

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Speaker 4: in Alabama State's favor because there's just as big of

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Speaker 4: a discrepancy when Alabama State's on defense. They're ninety first

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Speaker 4: in forcing turnovers, and Saint Francis is awful at protecting

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Speaker 4: the basketball.

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Speaker 2: They don't force turnovers at all.

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Speaker 4: There's really not a lot to like on the Saint

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Speaker 4: Francis profile, as you mentioned, an extremely fortunate basketball team.

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Speaker 4: Now I know better than anyone you see the joke

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Speaker 4: Michigan banner behind me right now. Sometimes it's better to

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Speaker 4: be lucky than good. But going back to Valentine's Day,

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Speaker 4: here They won three straight overtime games in the regular season,

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Speaker 4: and then they won three games in the Northeast Tournament

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Speaker 4: by a combined nine points. Never won a game by

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Speaker 4: more than one possession. It is quite historically just small

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Speaker 4: margin run that this team is on, and the only

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Speaker 4: thing in this game that I think shows a clear

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Speaker 4: advantage for one side will be the possession battle of

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Speaker 4: the turnovers. Add in the fact that I really like Madlock,

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Speaker 4: it's enough for me to lay the number with Albama State.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn to the second game on Tuesday nights, the

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Speaker 1: aforementioned North Carolina tar Heels. They are three and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorite over San Diego State, the total sitting

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Speaker 1: at one forty two and a half. I'm gonna get

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Speaker 1: this off my chest right away. I want no part

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Speaker 1: of this game because my head says, it's Brian Dutcher.

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Speaker 1: It's a top fifteen defense. So I got a great

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Speaker 1: game planner. I have a defense that's going to make

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Speaker 1: life hell on UNC. But it's so easy for UNC

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Speaker 1: to potentially play the US against the world card, play

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Speaker 1: their hearts out, prove the haters wrong.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know.

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Speaker 1: This is just one of those games where I if

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Speaker 1: I could just get a free stream three minutes into it,

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Speaker 1: what's the body language will look like? What are the

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Speaker 1: first few offensive possessions look like? And then hop in

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Speaker 1: if I could get the same number. That number is

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Speaker 1: probably going to go up and smoke if North Carolina

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Speaker 1: comes out, and it's clear they want to assert their dominance.

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Speaker 2: But I'm staying away from this one. It seems for you.

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Speaker 1: At least you want to make a statement to the

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Speaker 1: committee with this play, which I think is fine because

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Speaker 1: there's plenty to like about San Diego State and when

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Speaker 1: they played their best basketball this.

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Speaker 2: Year, You've seen how they battled the top of the.

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Speaker 1: Mountain West Conference, which was a very strong mid major league,

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Speaker 1: So it's not like they're going to be out of

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Speaker 1: their depth. And also, I don't think it hurts that

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Speaker 1: Brian Dutcher has made hay here in the NCAA Tournament.

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Speaker 1: He's shown that he can play up. He's really the

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Speaker 1: only Mountain West coach that we can trust at this point.

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Speaker 1: So I understand, at least on the outside, what I'm

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Speaker 1: being sold. But let's stick into the numbers a little bit.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 4: So it is an integrity play first, and foremost, But

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Speaker 4: it's not just betting with my heart and everything that

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Speaker 4: I spoke passionately about ten minutes ago when we opened

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Speaker 4: the show. I think this is a great matchup for

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Speaker 4: San Diego State if they are fully healthy. Now, the

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Speaker 4: big elephant in the room is McGoo Gwath, who has

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Speaker 4: been one of the best rim protectors in college basketball

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Speaker 4: this year year. He has not played in the last

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Speaker 4: five games for San Diego State. As much as I

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Speaker 4: can dig up on this injury is that he's been

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Speaker 4: day today for the better part of the last two weeks.

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Speaker 4: So I would be pretty surprised if he is not

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Speaker 4: available in a part of this game, and really the

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Speaker 4: story of this game because if Gwathe plays, San Diego

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Speaker 4: State's defense is going to be really effective against North Carolina.

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Speaker 4: This is a North Carolina team whose front court issues

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Speaker 4: are well.

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Speaker 2: Documented at this point.

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Speaker 4: But San Diego State is just fantastic as they always are,

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Speaker 4: as they have been for five plus years at really

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Speaker 4: physically dominating back courts and wing players. And that's what

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Speaker 4: this North Carolina team is vulnerable against.

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Speaker 2: They're small. Everybody knows this. Cado, R J.

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Speaker 4: Davis, Seth Trimble, even Ian Jackson. They're not exactly guys

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Speaker 4: that respond well to physicality, and they haven't seen much

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Speaker 4: physicality in the ACC. When they have seen it outside

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Speaker 4: of the league play, they've really struggled in all of

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Speaker 4: these games. So to me, it's a game where if

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Speaker 4: gwawthe is not available, then it's a total stay away.

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Speaker 1: For me.

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Speaker 4: I like your angle of waiting to see it live,

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Speaker 4: because I will say.

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Speaker 2: I don't really envision a world.

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Speaker 4: Where San Diego State hits their first four threes and

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Speaker 4: jumps on them to a ten zero lead. It's either

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Speaker 4: North Carolina is going to show up and give you

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Speaker 4: their a plus from the jump or they're not.

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Speaker 2: And if they're not, they're probably down.

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Speaker 4: Somewhere between two and five at the end of the

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Speaker 4: first media timeout, and at that point it's still probably

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Speaker 4: a pick them if not plus money. So I don't

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Speaker 4: hate that angle whatsoever. What I do feel strongly about

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Speaker 4: is that San Diego State should win this game. It's

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Speaker 4: a better basketball team, it's a better coach basketball team.

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Speaker 4: I think they got a lot of guys who really

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Speaker 4: care about their program in a way that North Carolina

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Speaker 4: just doesn't.

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Speaker 2: Defensively, it's an awesome matchup, and I'll be backing the Aztecs.

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Speaker 5: Head coach shots and mascot buzz Beata Zach.

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Speaker 4: And so much as.

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Speaker 3: Keep teeving disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and

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Speaker 3: scores that.

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Speaker 1: All right, Moving on to Wednesday, we got a doubleheader

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Speaker 1: between A sixteen and a sixteen and eleven and eleven.

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Speaker 1: You're matching it up from the Tuesday night seedings.

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Speaker 2: Let's look at Mount.

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Speaker 1: Saint Mary's against American. And if I was a little

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Speaker 1: bit harsh on Saint Francis, all right, come on down

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Speaker 1: Saint Mary's. The Mount beat three really good teams in

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Speaker 1: the MAC Tournament to get here, But when does the

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Speaker 1: luck run out for them? Because Marist Mary Mack and

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Speaker 1: Iona shot fifteen for seventy five from three point range

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Speaker 1: in those games, twenty percent across those three games. I

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Speaker 1: watched all of them because I was on the Merrimack train.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to see the Warriors punch a ticket to

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Speaker 1: March Madness, get the Butt Clark experience. Instead, it was

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Speaker 1: the Mount going ahead and picking them off in the semis.

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Speaker 1: And it wasn't because they were running out and contesting

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Speaker 1: every three. It's because even when the ball was working

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Speaker 1: around the perimeter and people were getting open looks they

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Speaker 1: couldn't throw it in, So that makes them a very

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Speaker 1: lucky team. What's interesting, though, is both of these teams

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Speaker 1: are top five in Ken Palm's luck rankings, so both

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Speaker 1: of them have been beneficiaries of things like this other

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Speaker 1: elements like opponent foul shooting, which you have no impact

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Speaker 1: on whatsoever. The difference though, to me, is America has

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Speaker 1: been a better and more consistent team down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: In the patriotleed they went fifteen and three straight up,

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Speaker 1: and Matt Rodgers is a serious matchup problem for the

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Speaker 1: Mounts Sean trumper if you look at him what he

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Speaker 1: did for Merrimack a very similar stretch four tight. He

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Speaker 1: took their bigs out of the three point range and

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Speaker 1: they either didn't follow them out there and let him

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Speaker 1: get his open shots or he had enough room to

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Speaker 1: maneuver and to be able to set picks. He was

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Speaker 1: an influential playmaker for them. He scored twenty points. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to see twenty five thirty out of Rogers in

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Speaker 1: this one. And also in terms of the x's and

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Speaker 1: O strategy, Mountleks to run a lot of man and

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Speaker 1: press you. But American does a really really good job

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Speaker 1: of limiting their turnovers. Navy's really the only comp I

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Speaker 1: would say in the Patriot League that puts a lot

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Speaker 1: of on ball pressure on you and is forcing turnovers

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Speaker 1: at a high clip. They played them three times in

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Speaker 1: all three games. America limited their own turnovers to nine

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Speaker 1: per game there, and they dominated them in the Patriot

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Speaker 1: League final in DC. So I think they're just the

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Speaker 1: class of this matchup. I think anything under four is great.

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Speaker 1: The fact that it's minus two and a half right

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Speaker 1: now in the market, I'm going to go hop on

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Speaker 1: the Patriot League champs and fade Mount Saint Mary's.

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Speaker 2: I think their luck finally runs out. I don't hate

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Speaker 2: that angle whatsoever. You make a lot of compelling points

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Speaker 2: on it.

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Speaker 4: The play for me in this game is going to

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Speaker 4: be the under, and I'm not an aggressive totals better.

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Speaker 4: I really wait for an edge that I feel is sizable,

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Speaker 4: but I think.

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Speaker 2: There is one here.

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Speaker 4: Mount Saint Mary's has been playing extremely slow in their

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Speaker 4: conference tournament win streak. Here, I mean, you're talking a

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Speaker 4: game against Merrimac nine possessions to finish fifty seven to

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Speaker 4: fifty five. The most possessions in a game in their

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Speaker 4: three game win streak in that MAC tournament was sixty

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Speaker 4: five against Marist. You go through a lot of their

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Speaker 4: losses earlier in the season, even just the way they

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Speaker 4: finished playing the final month of February in the first

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Speaker 4: week of March, a lot of games in the seventies

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Speaker 4: possessions wise. I think it was a very deliberate, intentional

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Speaker 4: slower pace in the conference tournament, and I think it works.

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Speaker 4: Limit possessions when you're the team that's not supposed to

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Speaker 4: win all of a sudden, maybe good things happen. I

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Speaker 4: think that's what they're going to need to do in

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Speaker 4: this game against an American team with Matt Rodgers, who

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Speaker 4: is a legitimate superstar who can take over and win

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Speaker 4: this game. But it plays right into American's hands if

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Speaker 4: they do slow it down. American has the three hundred

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Speaker 4: and forty ninth tempo in the sport. I think it's

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Speaker 4: going to be a very low possession game, and I

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Speaker 4: actually would just say I'm a little more skeptical than

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Speaker 4: you are on it being a favorable matchup for Rogers.

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Speaker 2: He's going to be able to get shots from.

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Speaker 4: The perimeter here, and he is a guy who can

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Speaker 4: fill it up and make four or five. But against

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Speaker 4: the Mount Saint Mary's defense, they give up a lot

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Speaker 4: of three point attempts. They are pretty good inside, and

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Speaker 4: they're pretty good as a three point percentage defense. And

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Speaker 4: when you look at Rogers, you can make the case

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Speaker 4: that he's due for a big, explosive shooting night. But

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Speaker 4: he's shooting like thirty three percent in his last six

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Speaker 4: games from three, a lot of nights like two for

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Speaker 4: eight against Navy, a one for three, one for five,

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Speaker 4: one for six. He went four for five against Colgate

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Speaker 4: that was the big one. But he hasn't shot it

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Speaker 4: well much in the last six games. It's really just

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Speaker 4: that one game. So I don't know what to make

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Speaker 4: of it. I think the matchup is gonna beg him

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Speaker 4: to really space it out. If he pours in shots

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Speaker 4: from three, I may.

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Speaker 2: Look stupid for it.

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Speaker 4: But if he shoots it the way he has for

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Speaker 4: the last month, I think this is a low possession game.

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Speaker 2: Cross excuse me.

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Speaker 4: Rodgers is not gonna get going inside, and I think

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Speaker 4: in the end, under one thirty one and a half

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Speaker 4: is a pretty good play.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's wrap this thing up with the nightcap

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Speaker 1: on the Wednesday card, the eleven seeded Xavier Musketeers against

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Speaker 1: the eleven seeded Texas Longhorns. This is de facto home

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Speaker 1: game for the x Men. It's an hour from Cincinnati Dayton.

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to have a lot of fans

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Speaker 1: turn out for this one against a Marquee national brand

383
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Speaker 1: in Texas who played in It seemed like two straight

384
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:11,159
Speaker 1: months of must win games for them on the bubble.

385
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Speaker 1: They finished four and eight straight up, and honestly, I

386
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Speaker 1: think the defensive game plan is pretty simple. For Sean Miller.

387
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Speaker 1: Stop Trey Johnson if he's not special, I don't think

388
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Speaker 1: they can beat anybody with the pulse. And in his

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Speaker 1: last six games he had, he was a non factor

390
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Speaker 1: in three of them. They're all decisive losses. So I

391
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Speaker 1: think he's just going to throw bodies at this guy,

392
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Speaker 1: do everything to make life difficult for him to get

393
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Speaker 1: into any kind of shooting rhythm. And then on the

394
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Speaker 1: offensive side of things, this is a team where Ryan

395
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Speaker 1: Conwell's coming off his best game of the entire season.

396
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Speaker 1: He exploded against Marquette for thirty eight, nearly carried them

397
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Speaker 1: across the finish line, and Zach Fremantle has been a

398
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Speaker 1: great second option as of late, in his last eight games,

399
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Speaker 1: averaging twenty points per game, seven and a half rebounds

400
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Speaker 1: averaged over thirty minutes per game. There, staying on the

401
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Speaker 1: floor is staying out of foul trouble. I'm gonna go

402
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Speaker 1: with Miller, who's been to the second weekend of the

403
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Speaker 1: Big Dance eight times in his career. I think there's

404
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Speaker 1: a big coaching mismatch here as well. This is a

405
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Speaker 1: Texas team that I would argue I wanted in less

406
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Speaker 1: than even North Carolina. Yeah, they beat A and M

407
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Speaker 1: and the SEC Tournament.

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Speaker 2: I think that was it.

409
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Speaker 1: I think that was their their moment for the season,

410
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Speaker 1: be able to beat their rival. I think they're going

411
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Speaker 1: to pack it in here in a game that's going

412
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Speaker 1: to mean very little to them in terms of what

413
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Speaker 1: they ca It just never really clicked in my opinion.

414
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Speaker 1: With as well as Trey Johnson was playing in the

415
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Speaker 1: early portion of the season looking like a lottery pick man,

416
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Speaker 1: if we can just get a little bit of elevated

417
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Speaker 1: play around him, we could be a team that could

418
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Speaker 1: finish in the top six of the SEC. It did

419
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Speaker 1: not materialize. It's a great story that the SEC is,

420
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Speaker 1: you know, packed it in like a clown car for

421
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Speaker 1: this bracket. But some of these teams I think are

422
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Speaker 1: going to be exposed as overvalued and just having that

423
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Speaker 1: SEC brand name attached them. I think Texas is one

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Speaker 1: of them.

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Speaker 2: So I'm on the x Men here. I'm going to

426
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Speaker 2: be on the same side as you here. I you know,

427
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Speaker 2: they're just playing.

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Speaker 4: A lot better to what they're capable of than Texas.

429
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Speaker 4: The fear for me would be like, Okay, it is

430
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Speaker 4: Xavier just a first basketball team where playing better gets

431
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Speaker 4: them up to Texas's caliber or is it vice versa.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

433
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Speaker 4: I don't think Xavier would finish much ahead of Texas

434
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Speaker 4: if they were dropped in the SEC. To be honest

435
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Speaker 4: with you, I think this is a team that for

436
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Speaker 4: rather large stretches of their season did not play good

437
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Speaker 4: basketball at all. But that seems to have changed in

438
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Speaker 4: the last month and a half. As you mentioned, Fremantle

439
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 4: has been dominant in the latest run.

440
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 2: In the Big East, So credit to him.

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00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 4: First of all, it's great to see a thirty four

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00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 4: year old finally find success at college basketball, but.

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00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 2: He's ben stellar.

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00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,199
Speaker 4: You've got to tip your cap and Conwell is just

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00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,880
Speaker 4: a guy that as good as Trey Johnson is. Conwell's

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00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,640
Speaker 4: probably one of the only perimeter stars in the entire

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00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 4: sport that I think can go toe to toe with

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00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,199
Speaker 4: Trey Johnson. We've seen Conwell have thirty five points in

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00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 4: a game this year, and that's not out of the

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00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 4: question for him to get up for this game.

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00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 2: And get going from outside.

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00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 4: So you mentioned briefly Sean Miller his track record in March.

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00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 4: He's been historically good, going back to his days at

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00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 4: Arizona and even before.

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00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 2: I think this is a massive coaching mismatch.

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00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,479
Speaker 4: Anytime you can serve Rodney Terry against a guy that

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00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 4: may end up in the Hall of Fame, it's something

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00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 4: you should take, especially when there are stakes on the line.

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00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 2: So I'm in with you on.

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00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,120
Speaker 4: Xavier, and I think the biggest key schematically what will

461
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 4: happen in this game that gets us across the finish

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00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,439
Speaker 4: line to cover this number. Xavier should feast at the

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00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 4: free throw line here. They're the eighth best free throw

464
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 4: percentage team in the sport, they're the sixtieth best free

465
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 4: throw rate team in the sport, and Texas can't stop

466
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 4: fouling I've made note about this on our Sleepers channel

467
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 4: a bunch this year. They are an incredibly low IQ

468
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 4: basketball team, and it applies to the way they play offense.

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00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:35,959
Speaker 2: It applies to the way they defend.

470
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 4: Even if they're in the right spots or they drop

471
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 4: a good play, there's always an opportunity for someone on

472
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 4: Texas to make a boneheaded foul or to make the

473
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 4: wrong pass, and it just kills them in spots. They

474
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 4: should have put away Texas A and M and the

475
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 4: SEC tournament long before they did, but they kept letting

476
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 4: them hang in the game. You can't do that with

477
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 4: Xavier in their current form. Freemantle and Conwell will make

478
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 4: you pay. So I'm all over the minus two and

479
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 4: a half. It's my favorite play of the first four.

480
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,399
Speaker 4: That'll do it for this episode of the Big Bets

481
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 4: on Campus.

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00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: My thanks to Greg for joining us live, and if

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00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: you want to tail some of our bets as we've

484
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: discussed in today's episode, make sure to look for the

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00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 1: quick slip links in the podcast and video description. We'll

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00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 1: be back with more best bets for both the Thursday

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00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 1: and Friday opening weekend slates, so be sure to subscribe

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00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: to the podcast you don't miss anything, and always, as

489
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 1: as always, leave us a five star review, wish us

490
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: good luck, talk a little trash. We can get in

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Speaker 1: there in the comments section with you, but all of

492
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 1: the reviews and engagement on social media really helps us

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00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 1: spread the word, So be sure to enjoy everything that

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00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 1: we're churning out here at the Action Network and the

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00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus podcast.

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00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening.

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00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 5: Cheers, aad course, shots and Mad Scott, suzz A Beta.

498
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 1: Bash and so much par.

499
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:05,360
Speaker 3: Keep tea disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores.

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00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 2: Fat Sly Marches, Fault.

501
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Speaker 5: Sap, You're pride, Oh no, no mad go little madness

502
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Speaker 5: in my eye, Send me out my moment jump Fats

503
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 5: Marches Fault.

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00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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