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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an

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Speaker 1: amazing show of everybody today. There it is people Live

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Speaker 1: for the pound Bro Show. Christal will be in for Rott.

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Speaker 1: What is She's feeling for you? On Wednesday?

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Speaker 3: Ladies Day on Wendess All right, what do they call it?

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Speaker 1: Who knows? That's that's for the other room, that's for yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's for them to decide. That's for the audience to decide.

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Speaker 1: I did not even coin Bro show that was.

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Speaker 3: An audio choice room.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it was you actually, I don't know, but anyway, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right. We believe in women's choice here on the show.

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Speaker 1: So that's what you're going to see this week. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and see what the hell do we even have?

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Speaker 1: All Right, come up on me. This is the toughest

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Speaker 1: part of the job here, actually saying what we have

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Speaker 1: to do today. We're going to start off with tariffs.

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Speaker 1: There's clues at the bottom, I know, but Ryan, the

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Speaker 1: amount of high end eye coordination that this all requires

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Speaker 1: is unbelievable. Okay, So we're going to be starting off

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Speaker 1: with tariffs. We're going to talk about some major flip

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Speaker 1: flops from the administration. Nobody knows what the hell is

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Speaker 1: going on from industry to Wall Street. People are dizzying

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Speaker 1: in their reactions. The dollar is sinking to new lows.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about China. This specifically is very interesting.

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Speaker 1: Some major new initiatives from the Chinese to ban rare

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Speaker 1: earth mineral exports to the United States, trying to choke

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Speaker 1: off critical American industries. We're going to talk about Recession

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Speaker 1: Watch and how many CEOs on Wall Street and others

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Speaker 1: responsible unfortunately for many of our fates in terms of

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Speaker 1: employers now already believe we're in a recession. Next, the

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Speaker 1: Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan, one of

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Speaker 1: the most watched studies there in terms of indicators how

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Speaker 1: Americans are feeling about the economy, mortgage rates, and others,

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Speaker 1: just came out. The response is absolutely devastating for the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration. A rare spot of good news here the

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Speaker 1: Iran negotiations appear to have gone well with the presidential

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Speaker 1: Envoy Steve Whitcoff some interesting stuff from behind the scenes.

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Speaker 1: The pro Israel lobby is absolutely freaking out over these developments.

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Speaker 1: Will break some of that down for you. Then there

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Speaker 1: is Bucel, the President of l Salvador, is currently in

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Speaker 1: Washington today. There's been some developments there with the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration appearing at least not to comply with the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court order, or at the very least complying in their

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Speaker 1: own way at Ryan break a lot of that down

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Speaker 1: for you. And then finally some really devastating and terrible news.

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Speaker 1: It appears and arsonists tried to assassinate Governor Josh Shapiro

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Speaker 1: and his family in the Governor's mansion. Some of the

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Speaker 1: images that have come out are absolutely harrowing. We do

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Speaker 1: know that suspect has been arrested. We have some video

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Speaker 1: there from the Governor, Josh Shapiro breaking down the incident.

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Speaker 1: We don't have full details yet, but Ryan, it is

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Speaker 1: obviously you know, political mind and it's awful, but more

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Speaker 1: so it's just, you know, horrible. The images coming out

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Speaker 1: of that are horrible, and it does look like it

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Speaker 1: was a lot closer than anybody initially thought from the

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Speaker 1: initial results.

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Speaker 4: Yes, the police are saying that the man intended to

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Speaker 4: beat Shapiro with the hammer if he had gotten to him.

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Speaker 4: The family got out, he didn't catch him.

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Speaker 1: But the close call, like very close call, too way

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Speaker 1: too close, way too clear. The images of it are

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Speaker 1: genuinely crazy. So some questions about the governor, security, detail

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Speaker 1: about who this suspect is, and more. We're going to

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Speaker 1: try and break some of that down for you with

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Speaker 1: the latest developments that we have here. Thank you to

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Speaker 1: all of our premiumsubscribers Breakingpoints dot Com people who are

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Speaker 1: supporting the show, some expansion efforts and other things they're

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Speaker 1: going to see here behind the scenes. We will have

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Speaker 1: some big announcements this week tomorrow when Crystal is back

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Speaker 1: here at the desk, so we will bring that to

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Speaker 1: you then, so you could stay tuned. Actually, if you

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Speaker 1: want to become a previous describer today, you'll be the

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Speaker 1: very first to hear about it. Breakingpoints dot Com. There

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Speaker 1: you go. All right, let's go ahead and start off

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Speaker 1: with these tariffs. This is just the most insane thing

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Speaker 1: that we have seen yet, honestly from the Trump administration,

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Speaker 1: since the announcement of these reciprocal terrors. So Mark is

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Speaker 1: absolutely exploded with optimism over the weekend from this announcement

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Speaker 1: from the White House has put it up there on

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Speaker 1: the screen. Apple and Vidia score relief from US tariffs

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Speaker 1: with exemptions. Now you might be asking how exactly that

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Speaker 1: makes sense when the Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik had said

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Speaker 1: that we as a country actually want to build the iPhone,

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Speaker 1: and how we want a nation of people to screwing

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Speaker 1: what was it screwing tiny little screws to assemble them.

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Speaker 1: But clearly what happened is that there was an immense

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Speaker 1: pressure campaign from the White House or to on the

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Speaker 1: White House, from the consumer electronics industry ninety percent of

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Speaker 1: which comes from China, both smartphone and smartphone and laptops,

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Speaker 1: that were basically telling the White House they're like if

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Speaker 1: you do this, it will make it genuinely impossible to

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Speaker 1: be able to afford these electronics. Now, at that time,

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Speaker 1: it was already completely out of step with the White

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Speaker 1: House's discussion saying consistently there will be no exemptions. Exemptions

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Speaker 1: are impossible, don't even think about it. And actually the

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Speaker 1: net result of that tar or exemption would have meant

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Speaker 1: that children's toys and textiles and small business commerce goods

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Speaker 1: which are cheaper actually would go way up. So would

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Speaker 1: have devastated small businesses while protecting Apple and Nvidia's bottom line.

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Speaker 1: And so initially that was a pretty insane announcement. Markets

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Speaker 1: were set to shoot up dramatically, the NASDAK and other

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Speaker 1: tech focused industries. But then the Trump administration in only

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Speaker 1: a way the Trump administration can literally the next day

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Speaker 1: reversed course. Put this up there on the screen. Please,

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Speaker 1: this is from Trump, who now says this was on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Nobody is getting off the hook for the unfair trade

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Speaker 1: imbalances that other countries have used against, especially China. Quote,

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Speaker 1: there was no tariff exemption announced on Friday. Now this

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Speaker 1: is news to all of us. Ryan, because the release

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Speaker 1: from the White House is not a joke from white

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Speaker 1: House dot gov was titled exemptions. Oh yeah, and it's

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Speaker 1: so funny because what happened is the exempts were announced

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Speaker 1: at people. Rightfully, I think smaller importers, non electronic importers,

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Speaker 1: were furious about it. And then the White House came

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Speaker 1: outs and actually there were no exemptions. And Howard Lutnik

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Speaker 1: gave an interview on the Sunday Shows where he completely

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Speaker 1: reversed course from just twenty our earliers about the so

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Speaker 1: called non exemptions. Here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 5: So, you're saying that the big tariffs on things like

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Speaker 5: smartphones and laptops, iPhones, all those iPhones built in China,

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Speaker 5: that those tariffs are temporarily off, but they're going to

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Speaker 5: be coming right back on in another form in a

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Speaker 5: month or so or what are you saying?

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Speaker 6: Correct?

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Speaker 1: That's right, that's right.

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Speaker 6: Semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will have a tariff model in order

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Speaker 6: to encourage them to re sure to be built in America.

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Speaker 6: We need our medicines and we need semiconductors and our

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Speaker 6: electronics to be built in America. We can't be to

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Speaker 6: hold and rely upon foreign countries for fundamental things that

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Speaker 6: we need. We can't be relying on China for fundamental

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Speaker 6: things that we need. Our medicines and our semiconductors need

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Speaker 6: to be built in America.

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump is on it.

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Speaker 1: He's calling that out.

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Speaker 6: So you should understand these are included in the semiconductor

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Speaker 6: tariffs that are coming, and the pharmaceuticals are coming. Those

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Speaker 6: two areas are coming in the next month or two.

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Speaker 6: So this is not like a permanent sort of exemption.

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Speaker 6: He's just clarifying that these are not available to be

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Speaker 6: negotiated away by countries. These are things that are national

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Speaker 6: security that we need to be made in America.

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Speaker 1: The present's mini So how can consumers and businesses make

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Speaker 1: decisions when it seems as though the president's trade policies

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Speaker 1: are shifting at a moment's notice.

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Speaker 5: So this is unfolding exactly like we thought it would

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Speaker 5: in a dominant scenario.

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Speaker 1: Got it makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 3: Ryan.

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Speaker 1: We had exemptions and we we don't have exemptions, and actually, well,

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Speaker 1: there is a temporary exemption. That exemption will be gone

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Speaker 1: in a month.

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Speaker 3: The exemption that doesn't exist.

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Speaker 1: The exemption that we've never announced, where we lifted. That's

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Speaker 1: where we're at. Got that I mean people, it's not

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Speaker 1: funny because what does it mean for industry? Ryan, What

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Speaker 1: would any business watching this do right now?

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Speaker 4: Just hold your cash and probably get it out of dollars. Yes, actually,

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Speaker 4: so it's not just rush to cash. That's what's so

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Speaker 4: sad about all of this is that the three hundred

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Speaker 4: million people in the United States, across the board, whether

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Speaker 4: you voted for Trump, voted for Kamala Arris, didn't vote

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Speaker 4: at all, are all going to suffer as a result

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Speaker 4: of this. And everything Lutnik is saying there is true.

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Speaker 4: We should be making our chips here, we should be

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Speaker 4: making our medicines here. Yes, that's absolutely right. None of

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Speaker 4: this is going to lead to that. And we're going

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Speaker 4: to talk about a little bit about how it's actually

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Speaker 4: going to get us further away from that, and we're

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Speaker 4: going to find out what it means to deliberately break

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Speaker 4: our own supply chains without how having any backup plan.

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Speaker 4: The monkey, you know, they always say, if you're a monkey,

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Speaker 4: you grab the next vine before you let go.

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Speaker 3: Trump just let go.

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Speaker 4: It's a good and he thought that they thought that

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Speaker 4: the falling to the jungle floor would be the leverage. Instead,

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Speaker 4: we're just going to wind up on the jungle floor.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and my friend Ryan Peterson, who had on the show.

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Speaker 1: You guys might remember him, the port expert, and he

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Speaker 1: tweeted this As a result, he said, quote, tariffs on

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Speaker 1: semiconductors and electronics will be introduced in about a month.

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Speaker 1: Quote those products were exempted from tariffs just yesterday. The

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Speaker 1: whole system seems designed to create paralysis. So it is

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Speaker 1: now clear if you're a CEO and if you green

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Speaker 1: lit a major investment decision, you should short that person stock.

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Speaker 1: That person should be fired as a shareholder. I would

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Speaker 1: vote to fire any CEO who greenlit a major investment

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Speaker 1: in the United States over the next ninety days while

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Speaker 1: all of this tariff stuff is happening, especially if you're

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Speaker 1: a Nasdaq investor for any of these major technology companies

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Speaker 1: and manufacture anything. Same with Apple. If you're Apple, you

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Speaker 1: know what you're going to do for the next ninety days.

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Speaker 1: We're not important shit, literally just gonna sit on our iPhone.

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Speaker 1: We were gonna hustle much as they can. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: as much as me. Except wait, but no, there is

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Speaker 1: a twenty percent tariff. It could go to one hundred

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Speaker 1: and four. Nobody knows, right, no, right, now, we'll just

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Speaker 1: let that sit here. Everybody else is good luck.

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Speaker 4: You see the cargo planes, they had like four cargo

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Speaker 4: planes smuggling in iPhones. And I saw you tweeting about

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Speaker 4: this as well, that the Nvidia CEO, Jens Wang had

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Speaker 4: a you know, paid his company paid a million dollars

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Speaker 4: to go to a Trump Super pac dinner. It's unclear

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Speaker 4: if he talked with Trump or whatever. But you know,

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Speaker 4: if I pay a million dollars to get into a party,

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Speaker 4: I'm I'm gonna talk to that. Oh we're talking. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: we're talking. We're gonna do a couple of minutes. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: and then boom, all of a sudden. The chips, the

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Speaker 4: chips like Nvidia makes the chips that like make the

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Speaker 4: world run, and we'll make deep seat run a little faster.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we're gonna carve those out though. That's cool.

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Speaker 4: So we're talking about a multi trillion dollar restructuring of

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Speaker 4: the economy. That the most important chip maker can get

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Speaker 4: a car about four after paying a million.

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Speaker 1: Dollars, which is nothing for them, right right, This is

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Speaker 1: a multi right, the market cap and Endvidia is larger

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Speaker 1: than the entire stock exchange in the United Kingdom.

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Speaker 4: They lost like billions. Yeah, in the last couple of

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Speaker 4: weeks exactly like a million.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a million is absolutely nothing. This gets to the

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Speaker 1: issue which again you know, look, n Video, they're going

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Speaker 1: to be fine.

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Speaker 4: Oh and it's a million dollar dinner. Yeah, he may

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Speaker 4: have given a lot more than a million.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, probably did so. Uh, you know, Nvidia, they're

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Speaker 1: going to be fine. Apple, they're going to be fine.

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Speaker 1: These people have hundreds of billions of dollars in cash,

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Speaker 1: market cap, all this other stuff. But all of these

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Speaker 1: other smaller importers. Let's say that you're a company, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna you know, if you ever read about the history

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Speaker 1: of the iPhone, they're you know, the people that made

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Speaker 1: the glass for this phone that's in front of me,

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Speaker 1: of the laptop that's in front of me. Over ninety

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Speaker 1: percent of these products are manufactured in China, and entirely

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Speaker 1: in China. There are a lot of actually small businesses

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Speaker 1: and others. Let's say you make iPhone cases on ens

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Speaker 1: or something like that. Right, all of these input costs

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Speaker 1: and around the ecosystem and things, those people actually their

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Speaker 1: inputs under these exemptions would have skyrocketed and actually will

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Speaker 1: continue to be subject to the tariff regime and they're

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Speaker 1: the very ones who will be the most devastated. And

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Speaker 1: also because the way our economy works with just in

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Speaker 1: time delivery and no government incentive to do anything about it,

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Speaker 1: means that you are inflicting an incredible amount of suffering

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Speaker 1: to any D two C brand, somebody running e commerce,

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Speaker 1: even you know, just general like a bike shop is

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Speaker 1: always a classic example. A lot of those metals, we

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Speaker 1: don't even have them period, or if we do, let's

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Speaker 1: say Australia has them, they don't refine them. They have

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Speaker 1: to send them to China, and China aster to refine it,

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Speaker 1: and they have to send it over here for the

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Speaker 1: ability for fabrication purposes, et cetera. All of these are

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Speaker 1: exactly the type of businesses which are about to see

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Speaker 1: a massive increase. Now I can be conceptually supportive of tariffs,

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Speaker 1: just as you said, pharmaceuticals, great example. Why did China

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Speaker 1: dominate in pharmaceuticals? Why did Chinese and the Europeans dominate? Well,

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Speaker 1: the Europeans have the legacy, you know, kind of design framework,

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Speaker 1: very much like we have with Intel. But then China

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Speaker 1: of course saw it as a national strategic industry to

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Speaker 1: have all of these plants which create and can what

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Speaker 1: is it compound pharmaceuticals to be able to make all

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Speaker 1: this stuff. They don't do it because it's profitable per se.

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Speaker 1: It helps to you know, make a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a profit. But they do it because they know that

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Speaker 1: it's vital to their own strategic autonomy. We as fools,

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Speaker 1: of course, just allow this to be outsourced. Now, the

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Speaker 1: MAGA folks would say, yeah, of course, soccer, that's why

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Speaker 1: we immediately need to bring it over here. I would say, yeah, great, Well,

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Speaker 1: then you need to offer let's say a dollar for

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Speaker 1: dollar tax credit. For every dollar that you're going to

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Speaker 1: lose in business, you're going to get x amount of

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Speaker 1: tax credit for your capex, which is the amount that

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Speaker 1: you're about to invest here in the US. Everybody, it's

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Speaker 1: a win win situation. Instead, what we're going to saying

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Speaker 1: is we're going to increase your cost by one hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty percent and by the way, maybe and maybe not,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the next ninety days. So what do

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Speaker 1: you do as that person with that possible cash outlaw

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Speaker 1: If you're lucky enough to even have cash on your books,

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Speaker 1: which many businesses do not because they run on such

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Speaker 1: a tight margin. You aren't going to hoard that as

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Speaker 1: much as possible. In fact, you're probably going to fire

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Speaker 1: some people to free up a little bit of cash

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Speaker 1: flow for let's say you take a sixty percent haircut

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Speaker 1: or whatever. Not only are going to fire people, you

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Speaker 1: need even more cash on your balance sheet to make

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Speaker 1: sure you can prepare for the future. So this is

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Speaker 1: a contractual effect across the entire economy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and currently, if you are a business like let's

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Speaker 4: say Apple that mostly that makes your entire product in China,

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Speaker 4: puts it in the box, puts a little cell of

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Speaker 4: fane on.

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Speaker 1: It, puts shined in Cupertina.

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Speaker 4: Y design sign you right, design it. You know, you

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Speaker 4: put it on a ship and you come over here.

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Speaker 4: You're exempt from these one hundred and fifty percent tariffs

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Speaker 4: or whatever. If you're a company that is in Columbus, Ohio,

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Speaker 4: and has been trying to bring back like serious jobs

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Speaker 4: to Ohio, and you bring you get something like you

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Speaker 4: were saying, you get some inputs from China, but then

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Speaker 4: you assemble the rest of the pieces in Columbus and

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Speaker 4: you're working with, you know, a distributor in Toledo and

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Speaker 4: like you, you are paying the tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's right.

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Speaker 4: But if you take everything that you do, fire every

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Speaker 4: one of your wor find some plant on TikTok and

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Speaker 4: ask him to make your thing completely in there and

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Speaker 4: then figure out a way to get in or your

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Speaker 4: Apple and you can just you'll pay you bribe your

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Speaker 4: way in.

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Speaker 3: Uh, then you're going to do better.

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Speaker 4: So it incentivizes offshoring, it incentivizes doing all of your

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Speaker 4: work in China, and it also is going to bankrupt

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Speaker 4: as we speak, tons of small and medium sized companies,

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Speaker 4: which will then you know, get bought up by.

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Speaker 3: The bigger ones and we'll have more corporate concentrations.

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Speaker 1: Oh, that would never happen except oh it happened fifteen

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Speaker 1: years ago, right, yeah, I forgot about that. Yeah, let's

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Speaker 1: go and put the futures up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: Futures are actually slightly up today.

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Speaker 3: Because video and Apple are like house.

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Speaker 1: I think seven percent of the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred is nvideo and so videos up the Apple stock

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Speaker 1: are increasing in their futures just over the next month

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Speaker 1: when people are optimistic even about that month long exemption

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Speaker 1: in teriffs. But the irony is is that if the

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Speaker 1: White House had kept a permanent exemption, or at least

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Speaker 1: the you know idea of a permanent exemption, the Nasdaq

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Speaker 1: would be up way highed sixty seven percent right now

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Speaker 1: because people thought that, oh, we're going to be having

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Speaker 1: some deals. Let's go and put a four up on

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Speaker 1: the screen. This guy did such a good job of

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Speaker 1: just summarizing. This is just since Wednesday, this is five days.

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Speaker 1: This is five days in the United States of America,

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Speaker 1: we have had universal reciprocal tariffs, a removal back down

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Speaker 1: to ten percent, fifty percent, Chinese tariffs ninety percent, Chinese

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Speaker 1: tariffs one hundred and four percent, Chinese tariffs one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty five percent, Chinese tariffs one hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: five percent, Chinese tariffs electronics exempted electronics. Now back on,

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Speaker 1: as he says, if you were a CFO of fortune

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Speaker 1: five hundred, would you improve any new investment in a

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Speaker 1: country this unstable answer? Honestly no, As I said, I

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Speaker 1: would personally, as a shareholder, vote to fire any CEO

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Speaker 1: who made a major outlay of cash, investment or import

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Speaker 1: decision under these conditions. And we can tell you for

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Speaker 1: the people who run this business Crystal and I were like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's going to be We're going ultra conservative, probably even

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Speaker 1: more conservative than we ever were before, and we're just

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Speaker 1: going to sit here and wait to see what the

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Speaker 1: macroeconomic conditions do.

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Speaker 4: On that point, I saw Cernovich talking about this, Yes, right,

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Speaker 4: And the connection is he did a good job the podcast,

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Speaker 4: the podcast Universe, you know, which was pretty heavily you know,

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Speaker 4: pro Trump. This this time around us, the media loves

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Speaker 4: to remind us. You know, one of the big legs

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Speaker 4: of their of their economic business model is e commerce.

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Speaker 4: And that's not just podcasters, that's uh, you know, TikTokers.

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Speaker 4: That's the entire kind of creator. Economy is organized around

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Speaker 4: not you know, advertising, and the advertising is about selling

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Speaker 4: stuff online. So if you just get your money from

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Speaker 4: ad revenue, you're taking a hit because companies are going

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Speaker 4: to spend less, they're going to have less to spend

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Speaker 4: on advertisements. If they have less that they're able to.

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Speaker 3: Sell to the public.

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Speaker 4: And then there's the direct sales that your your little

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Speaker 4: little store. You think those counterpoints and breaking points socks

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Speaker 4: are expensive now.

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Speaker 1: Like actually know all bars are made in the USA,

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Speaker 1: so all of us are made in the USA.

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Speaker 3: Labor, I guess we're going to find out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean the way that you would say

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Speaker 1: it is that even though it is made in the USA,

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Speaker 1: and even though it is made in the USA with

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Speaker 1: union labors, at the input costs of cotton or whatever

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Speaker 1: it certainly comes from. Try I've actually learned this in

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Speaker 1: the suit industry. Actually, by the way, this is a

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Speaker 1: PSA for anybody who's out there have some friends who

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Speaker 1: are getting married. I did not realize that the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of wedding dresses are made in China. And if

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Speaker 1: I don't even believe it's possible to buy a made

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Speaker 1: in America branded wedding dress right now. And so if

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Speaker 1: you're getting married, you should get order that wedding dress

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Speaker 1: sometime soon and just hope and pray that you're not there.

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Speaker 4: And if you have American made products like cars or socks,

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Speaker 4: let's say you even sourced the cotton, which unlikely here

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Speaker 4: and everything is done in here because demand is getting

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Speaker 4: theoretically in a world where things are stable, that's not

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Speaker 4: the world we're in, but let's pretend that's Let's pretend

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Speaker 4: there's some stability. Demand is getting funneled into those American products.

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Speaker 4: So if you if you own a used Ford, like

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Speaker 4: the price of it's going.

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Speaker 3: To go up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you're going to be able to get more for that. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: that's forwards. And wait a minute, why why is that?

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Speaker 1: Well did you already see that? There's a story going

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Speaker 1: around of a guy who drove off the lot with

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Speaker 1: a brand new CRV and the dealer called him the

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Speaker 1: next day and he's like, hey, man, I will pay

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Speaker 1: you a lot more than you paid for this brand.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that never happens. What you're supposed to lose

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Speaker 1: twenty percent of your value the moment that it goes

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Speaker 1: pump off. By the way, CRV owners undefeated here, thank you,

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Speaker 1: shout out to the CRV bros.

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Speaker 4: Account myself in your ranks. There's so much more demand.

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Speaker 3: I mean that's so.

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Speaker 4: The idea is then that price increase is then supposed

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Speaker 4: to incentivize more domestic production. Like that's the whole that's

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Speaker 4: the whole theory behind it. But for the very medium term,

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Speaker 4: there's not going to be that production. So you're just

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Speaker 4: going to pay fifty five dollars for those socks instead

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Speaker 4: of fIF to thirty.

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Speaker 1: Tis rough out there, Ryan, Let's put a five guys,

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Speaker 1: can we up on the screen. This is from Charles Gasperino.

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Speaker 1: Forgive the block of tax, but actually is important. And

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Speaker 1: so he quotes a prominent investor and Wall Street tech

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Speaker 1: analysts who's been there for you basically twenty years, and

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Speaker 1: his word, it's one of those things on Wall Street,

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Speaker 1: these analysts who've been around for a long time. Everybody

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Speaker 1: really does take a listen to him. He goes, Let's

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Speaker 1: be clear. On Friday night, the White House excluded big

434
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 1: tech in the chip sector from these Chinese tariffs, right,

435
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 1: which would have made the tech stat for soocks rally.

436
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: As I said, initially, this is a huge victory. But now,

437
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: according to the White House and Howard Lutnik this morning,

438
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 1: the semiconductor sectoral tariffs will be coming over the next

439
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 1: month or to including smartphone and computers. So the mass

440
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 1: confusion created by this constant news flow is quote dizzying

441
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: for the industry and investors, creating a massive uncertainty and

442
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 1: chaos for companies trying to plan their supply chain inventory

443
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 1: as in demand as we are in Master's week and

444
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 1: in Sunday. This would be like changing the whole locations

445
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 1: for pro golfers in Augusta while the final round is

446
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 1: going on in real time. This is how investors feel

447
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: right now. What are the rules of the game, What

448
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 1: do earnings look like? What will the new tariffs look like?

449
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 1: Can they be negotiated? How can companies give guidance in

450
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: this environment? We are in a much better spot than

451
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: Friday and last week heading into Sunday night, but there

452
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: is still quote mass uncertainty, chaos, confusion around the next steps,

453
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 1: with all focused on the China tariff negotiations being front

454
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 1: and center, and any progress on a game, this high

455
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 1: stakes poker between Beijing and DC being crucial to the

456
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: markets and the economy this week. So with the chaos.

457
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 4: One amendment to that, it's like changing the whole after

458
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 4: you swing, Yeah, like your ball is your balls look

459
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 4: like if you change the whole right before you right

460
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 4: before you take your shot, Like all right, give me

461
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 4: a different club and I'll take a different shot. You swing,

462
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 4: you hit the ball, and then they're like, oh no,

463
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 4: by the way, you're actually supposed to be going to

464
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 4: the fourteenth t.

465
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, you were playing at the seventeenth T.

466
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: I don't know I watched that balls. By the way,

467
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 1: I don't know anything about golf.

468
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 3: I didn't watch it because I don't have time on

469
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 3: weekends and do anything.

470
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: I don't really get it. Macilroy, Yeah, what he want

471
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: to come back or something.

472
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 4: This is the He hadn't won it, hadn't won eleven

473
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 4: years and he locked up.

474
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: Really yeah, oh, good f riend.

475
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 4: So he's now won all the He's got the Grand Slam,

476
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 4: the career good Slam. Right, what is a career Gland

477
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 4: Slam In golf? It means you win all the masters?

478
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 4: So yeah, what is it, PGA, PGA, us O Open Masters.

479
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 3: I don't watch What's what's the fourth one?

480
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: I don't know.

481
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 8: You guys.

482
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 3: All the big ones?

483
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, got it? Yeah, So this shows you

484
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: the extent of my my golf knowledge. There was some

485
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 1: There was some guy who I met what's his name,

486
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: Bryson Deshambo. I had no idea who this guy was.

487
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: He was the guy like neck and neck with Yeah.

488
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,479
Speaker 1: Once we were at this event and he was there

489
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: and all these people were taking picture. I was like,

490
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 1: who is this guy. Someone was like, oh, he's one

491
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 1: of the biggest golfer in the world.

492
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,479
Speaker 3: I was like, oh cool, he almost almost almost won

493
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: the Master.

494
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: Shows you the extent of my golf knowledge. So sorry,

495
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 1: Bryce has no offense. I promise it's It's truly not you.

496
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 3: He has bigger problems today.

497
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go. All right, let's go in transition

498
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: to these China tariffs, because this is the biggest part

499
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: of the story. Let's go and put this up there

500
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 1: on the screen. Quote, the rift is here. This is

501
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 1: from Bill Ackman, who has a guess brand, kind of

502
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: a Cassandra around these tariffs in terms of being in

503
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: the MAGA orbit. He says, the rift is healing China.

504
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: Quote asks for relief from the tariffs, creating an opening

505
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 1: for a China tariff pause and negotiations. Remember previously that

506
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: Bill was one of the first big MAGA people to

507
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: call for a ninety day pause, and that did eventually

508
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: become the eventual policy. Nobody knows necessarily if he was

509
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 1: responsible for that, but I'm paying attention just because previously

510
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: what he had called for was something that Trump was

511
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 1: willing to listen. But the thing is is that nas

512
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 1: these China terrifts start to set in, and remember they

513
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: are the policy. This is the policy of the United

514
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: States government. These are being hit right now with these tariffs.

515
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,239
Speaker 1: It is somewhat funny. There's been some news about how

516
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: DOGE fired the entire team to collect the tariffs, so

517
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 1: the amount of revenue actually coming in right now is zero.

518
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: Although my wife is a trade expert and I asked

519
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: her and she said that actually tariffs are liable to

520
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,880
Speaker 1: It's kind of like taxes. Even if you don't pay

521
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: on you still owe it. Yeah, so they're coming. Yeah,

522
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:53,959
Speaker 1: they're not going to forget. If you have a two

523
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy days or something.

524
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 4: They're trying to find those guys phone number, get them

525
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 4: back in, right, They're going to get.

526
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: Him back in eventually. Yeah. So if you're an export,

527
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 1: don't cheat, because you will.

528
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 4: If you're those fired Doge, you're fired by dos and

529
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 4: you worked on tariffs, right, You're getting offered many millions

530
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 4: of dollars to work for the private sector to show

531
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 4: them how to get out of there.

532
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: I'm I'm starting a boot teek consulting firm, going to

533
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 1: work for video tomorrow if I'm one of those folks.

534
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: But as we said, the tariffs are now in place.

535
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: This is the policy. We have one hundred and forty

536
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 1: five percent tariffs. The Chinese are roughly around eighty three

537
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: percent on their tariffs say they say they won't go

538
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: any higher. There has been some quote exemption. Again, nobody

539
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 1: knows what's going on, but arguably it's the Chinese tariffs

540
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: do not matter as much as where those targeted tariffs are.

541
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 1: And so this was the single biggest news to me.

542
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 1: Let's put it up there on the screen. And obviously

543
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 1: we've been covering it from last week and we knew

544
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: it was coming. But China has now quote halted critical

545
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: exports as a trade war intensified. They have suspended exports

546
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial

547
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: for the world's car, semiconductor and aerospace industries. Now, this

548
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: is a very important story because it really does reveal

549
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: the entire game. Quote. Ninety percent of the six rare

550
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: earth minerals which they have now ordered export licenses restrictions

551
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: on are produced in China and refined in China. The

552
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: metals and the special magnets made with them can now

553
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: only be shipped out of China with a special export

554
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: license for which US companies no longer qualify quote. But

555
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: China has barely started even setting up that system for

556
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 1: issuing those licenses, meaning that the concentration there is a

557
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: complete freeze. If factories in Detroit and elsewhere run out

558
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,719
Speaker 1: of these rare earth magnets, that would prevent them from

559
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: assembling cars and products with electric motors that require them.

560
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 1: Companies very widely in their size of emergency stockpiles, so

561
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 1: the timing of production disruption is very hard to predict.

562
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: But the main flag was actually a quote that was

563
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 1: buried deep within which just shows either rot at the

564
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 1: center of the US economy quote. Many American companies keep

565
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: little or no inventory because they do not want to

566
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: tie up cash and stockpiles of costly materials. One of

567
00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 1: the metals, for example, subject to the new controls, dysproucium

568
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,479
Speaker 1: oxide trades for two hundred and four dollars per kilogram

569
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: in Shanghai, but much much more than that outside of China,

570
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: meaning that you first of all, you would be competing

571
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: for almost ten percent of whatever of the minerals or

572
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: the refined minerals and magnets and other inputs that you

573
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: need for your car. But second that you are in

574
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: a situation where when you create, you know a produce

575
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: over ninety percent of something and you yourself have nothing

576
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: on the balance sheet. Again, we are looking at just

577
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 1: a freeze of economic activity. I would rather shut my

578
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: entire production line down at that point and just wait

579
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: and see what the hell is going to happen. The

580
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: exact opposite of what you want in intended policy. So

581
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: remember they have a lot of cards here. You know,

582
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 1: the infamous line like you have no cards. That's true

583
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: for Ukraine, not true whenever it comes to China. When

584
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 1: you you said it so well, was it with a monkey.

585
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: If you're going to grab onto something you want to grab,

586
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: make sure that you have something else. If you're gonna

587
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: let go, you want to let go. We have no

588
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: planning here for US companies. We have no tax incentive,

589
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: we have no strategic stockpile. We have a street stockpile

590
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 1: of oil. But we've been talking about this now for

591
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: a decade. I literally know you and I how many

592
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: discussions that we had about onshoring. We went through the

593
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: whole COVID thing. Our trade deficits actually increased with China.

594
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 1: We did not bring very much manufacturing back here a

595
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: little bit, you know, with the chipsack and a few things,

596
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 1: but not even close to But where we're so the

597
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: number was going in the right therea it was, it

598
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 1: was going on the line was Remember if you go

599
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: down by ninety and you go up by five, it's like, okay,

600
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: you're still down eighty five percent. But my point is

601
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 1: just with these rare earth minerals, there has been no

602
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: plan from the government around a stockpile. It's not like

603
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: we can look to the you know, EPA or some

604
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 1: other agency, you know, the Energy Department and have confidence

605
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: and they're like, we have gone to Australia and we've

606
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 1: ensured that US companies will have preferential export agreements here

607
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: with our allies. No, instead, we're actually hitting Australia with

608
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: ten percent tariff. At the same time, why would they

609
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 1: give you anything? They don't want to give us anything.

610
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: And we also we print the world's currency.

611
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 4: If we wanted to go into a trade war with China,

612
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 4: knowing that they control all of these refined rearers that

613
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 4: we need, knowing that in twenty nineteen they threatened to

614
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 4: do this, knowing that they did this to Japan when

615
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: they were in a trade war with Japan. For fifteen years,

616
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 4: the Pentagon has been talking about how this is an

617
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 4: issue for our defense industrial base, and that we should

618
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 4: do something about it. We could have, if we chose,

619
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 4: created a strategic reserve of these elements.

620
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 3: So you get a bottom up. We do it like

621
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: you said, we do it with oil. We decided not to.

622
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 4: And then and then we went in and started this

623
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 4: trade war without the cards. Cards made in China, and

624
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 4: here we are before the show, I was mentioned we

625
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 4: talked about this on the show on Wednesday because China,

626
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 4: I think it was on Tuesday at China announ said

627
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 4: they were going to slap these export licenses on these products,

628
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 4: and so it was clear. It was only in the

629
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 4: trade press at the time, but it was clear like, oh,

630
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 4: export licenses.

631
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to be able to get

632
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 3: an export license.

633
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: I think I broke it down on Tuesday. Yeah, people

634
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: can roll the tame. It was in the financial time.

635
00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: It's there, but they're not.

636
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 4: But then the main mainstream press is picking it up

637
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 4: like a week later, and the US being like, oh,

638
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 4: oh wait a minute, we didn't see this one coming.

639
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: Now you need a disprosium guy. If you're gonna like keep.

640
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: Your lines running, I hope we have a good disproceed

641
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: You have a good disprosium guy. Yeah, do you have

642
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: your dispris? I don't, I confess, you know, hope one

643
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: of the cameras in this studio doesn't break, by the way,

644
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 1: But I wonder where they're all made from.

645
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 3: Yes, go down to a what camera show can we.

646
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 1: Put let's see a nine, Please up on the screen.

647
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: Because this does a really good job, this Financial Times

648
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: tearsheet of showing where all of the like the major

649
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: concentrations of goods from China. It's still it's even more

650
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: shocking sometimes even when you look at it. Eighty percent

651
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: of smartphones, sixty six percent of laptops, and that is

652
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: only the finished product. I'm not even talking about the

653
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: input products. Some sixty nine percent of lithium ion batteries,

654
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: you have, three quarters of all children's toys, you have,

655
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: fifty percent. Of headphones, you've got, but fifty six percent

656
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: of sports footwear you've got fifty three and of rubber footwear,

657
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: ceramics sinks. I mean, you know, you can go down

658
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: the line for video game consoles eighty six percent, electric

659
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: fans eighty eight percent, Christmas festivity goods eighty seven percent.

660
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: I guess we won't be saying Merry Christmas. In December,

661
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: stainless China World on Christmas eighty six percent. You know,

662
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: plastic kitchen where eighty percent? Now do you need to live?

663
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: Do you need to fulfilled life and have plastic kitchen?

664
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: I don't even use plasticichen word. I can tell you

665
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 1: that because I'm concerned about some of the inputs and

666
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: all that. But yeah, is it that easy to buy? No,

667
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: it's not, you know, but you know why people use

668
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: it because it's convenient and because it's cheap. Can we

669
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 1: blame them? No, not in the occurrent economy that we're in.

670
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: If we want all as a country to be buying

671
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 1: like lodge, you know, cast iron, steel pans and stuff like,

672
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: I'm all for it, but you know, you need a

673
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: real cultural revolution, I think in terms of convenience, in

674
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: the way that our entire society and daily life and

675
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: all of that is structured.

676
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 6: You know.

677
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 1: Right now it's like weirdos and crunchy granola mo who

678
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: are into that stuff. But the rest of the world

679
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: is or the rest of the country is trying to

680
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: eat and they're trying to make sure that you can

681
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: work two jobs and not be bankrupt, you know, rather

682
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 1: than have to rely on a lot of these other

683
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: health concerns or whatever. And that's kind of my point

684
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: around the entire thing. We are so dramatically reliant on China,

685
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: and I would love to be able to change that.

686
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 1: I don't think it's made our lives materially much richer. However,

687
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: with no government dollar for dollar policy, industrial policy, I

688
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: mean just general like theory about preparation, how can the

689
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: public not conclude that this is not just a chaotic

690
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: process that with a net effect that will just make

691
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: everybody much worse off in the immediate term. That's effectively

692
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: what has happened here.

693
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, And the structure, the structure of the deal that

694
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 4: we had cut with China was effectively, like you said,

695
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 4: designed in coopertinos. So Coopertino's gonna do a lot of

696
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 4: They're gonna have the nice, cushy laptop jobs. Yes, and

697
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 4: China's gonna make those laptops for those laptop jobs, and

698
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 4: the Cupertino people are gonna make most of the money.

699
00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 8: Out of that.

700
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 4: Like this is a you know, Intel is the same

701
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: thing all the what the major amount of wealth is

702
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 4: going to flow to these vice presidents, these middle managers,

703
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 4: service and then and then to the the Apple store employees.

704
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 3: Who are you know, an Apple Store employee makes more.

705
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 4: Than if you if you if you open a factory,

706
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 4: and we're paying somebody just screw in like the screws

707
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 4: into the iPhone, you're actually paying more for that person there. Uh,

708
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 4: so that's the deal now, and you're seeing this on

709
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 4: TikTok all over the place.

710
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 3: China's like, you know what, how about we rip that

711
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 3: deal up? Like are it wasn't that great a deal

712
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 3: for us?

713
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 4: Like this this whole thing where we do the work

714
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 4: and we take like a tiny margin on top, and

715
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 4: you take everything else. So you have the military and

716
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 4: you have the intellectual property. So we were comfortable with

717
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 4: this arrangement for now because it was helping us develop

718
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 4: our manufacturing capacity. But now, you know what, we can

719
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 4: just go ahead and make the stuff. We have smart

720
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 4: executives here, we'll just keep that. We'll steal your IP

721
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 4: and we'll just sell the stuff.

722
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: How do you like that?

723
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 3: And we're like, oh, you can do that.

724
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well that's kind of the issue is, yeah, we

725
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: got some of these tiktoks right about. Yeah, let's play

726
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: one of these tiktoks there's a hilarious there's a guy

727
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: who has apparently so TikTok, and they're not just him.

728
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: There's many others who are just blowing up on TikTok

729
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: right now. I hate that I even have to say

730
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: those words, but you know, let's talk about this before

731
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 1: we can. You know at the very same time that

732
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 1: the TikTok is obviously putting his finger on the algorithm

733
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: of trying to undermine Trump's tariffs, He's trying to save TikTok, right,

734
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: So a little ironic there. Some of us have warned

735
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: about that, but oh he got won the youth boat

736
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: or whatever, so that was worth completely reversing his position

737
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: on it. So these are the types of videos that

738
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: are going megaviral all across the country right now. Let's

739
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: take a listen. Hello from China. Let me show you

740
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: the United States products in my home? Nothing. Do you

741
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: have something from China in your home? You gotta give

742
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: it to the guy he's right, Yeah, I mean what

743
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 1: does he have? Nothing? Yeah? He doesn't mean, he doesn't

744
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 1: need anything, right, he's living He's living a fine enough

745
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 1: life there.

746
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 4: Max said he was talking about the move bombing in Philadelphia.

747
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:13,720
Speaker 3: He's digging up our history?

748
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: Is he really?

749
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 6: Wow?

750
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 1: I mean all right, like we can trade insults or whatever.

751
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 3: About China. That's why there's fine the US. What does

752
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 3: Trump say, We're not We're not innocent either.

753
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's right. Look, I mean when you go

754
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: over there and you talk to I've met many Chinese

755
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: people who are just like wholehearted CCC believers, and they're

756
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 1: always like, they're like, you're gonna lecture me. They're like,

757
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: what about Chicago? What about And I'm like, yeah, it's

758
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: got a good point. Yeah, it's one of those words.

759
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 3: Listen.

760
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: I do encourage people to visit China if you're able to,

761
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: and to talk to Chinese people, especially around this because

762
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 1: a lot of them don't care nearly as much actually

763
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: as some of the people over here. And part of

764
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: the reason why is it's pretty clear as you could

765
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: see where he just said, He's like, we don't have

766
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: any products from you that's made in my own No,

767
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: I may not technically be true, you know, design in Kupertino,

768
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: et cetera. We can hit them back, we're like, oh

769
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 1: you never designed that. It's like yeah, but they've also

770
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: got it's not like we have a monopoly on smartphones.

771
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: They've got Wildwei phones. They're pretty good.

772
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 4: Actually, yeah, and at least we don't like sweet people

773
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 4: off the streets just for writing op eds.

774
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 3: Oh right, oh wait, no, never mind, all right.

775
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 1: All right, it's a little different, but we'll get to that. No, no,

776
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 1: it's okay. It's not different per se in this case,

777
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 1: but on a mass scale level.

778
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 3: Perhaps we do allow people to criticize our country just not.

779
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: Is Yeah, that's right, there you go. Okay, So that's

780
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: an important cave yacht in the point. Finally, around all

781
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 1: of this is just to show people how they have

782
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of leverage on the like the refined

783
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: rare earth minerals. They have incredible state capacity. And this

784
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: is one thing I do not want people to miss.

785
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: Let's put this last part up on the screen A

786
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 1: ten please, So this I mentioned this on our Friday show,

787
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: but I really want to underscore JD dot Com, which

788
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 1: is one of those massive e kermis giants. It's one

789
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: of the biggest companies in the global five hundred. It

790
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 1: says they are going to purchase two hundred billion one

791
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 1: equivalent to twenty seven billion dollars of goods from Chinese

792
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: exporters Quote to help manufacturers shift to the domestic market.

793
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 1: The Chinese company also said Friday it would provided training, subsidies,

794
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 1: and other support for export oriented manufacturers to sell their

795
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 1: products in China. That is what a functioning state looks like.

796
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:26,919
Speaker 1: So you're in the middle of a trade war. Your

797
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 1: greatest importer and relying reliable quote trading partner cuts you off.

798
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 3: So what do you do.

799
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: You mobilize the full capacity of the state and you

800
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: order your equivalent of like Amazon or whatever Wayfair, etc.

801
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: One of those types of company actually frankly bigger in

802
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: terms of market cap. And you say, hey, we've allowed

803
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: you guys to operate. Now for some years, you're going

804
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: to pump twenty seven billion dollars.

805
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 4: Into the economy.

806
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: And now you multiply that times one hundred, and you

807
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 1: have a state which is able to mobilize the full

808
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: force of so called private government, which is in tech

809
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: or private industry, not really private. It's government controlled, the

810
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 1: full government already. If you read again, all you have

811
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: to do is go read what they say they're going

812
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: to do. They have full control over their currency. They're

813
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 1: going to manipulate their currency. They have full control over

814
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 1: their interest rates. They're going to drop interest rates make

815
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 1: borrowing costs much easier. On the overall domestic They're going

816
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 1: to pump billions of dollars into their domestic economy to

817
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: make sure that their manufacturers do not miss a bait

818
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: and can continue to supply the Chinese market. They're currently

819
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,439
Speaker 1: on a global campaign trying to strike deals with US

820
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 1: allies exporters who feel very snubbed. President Chi Chingping will

821
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: be in Vietnam today. Remember, Vietnam is the number eight

822
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: trading partner of the United States of America, and Vietnam

823
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: actually was a major success story in overall US efforts

824
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 1: to try to cultivate a manufacturing base outside of China.

825
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 1: There have been accusations, there's been a trans shipping hub, etc.

826
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 1: But you know, sixty percent of the Vietnamese people, even

827
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: after what we did to them, are actually very approving

828
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: of the United States of America and we're ready to

829
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,439
Speaker 1: do business. It's called the Communist Party in the same

830
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: way the Chinese are. But that's what they're doing over there.

831
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: And meanwhile they strike deals with the Europeans about byd cars, right,

832
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: So they have a full strategy. They know exactly what

833
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 1: they're doing over here. We've got Howard Lutnik and Trump

834
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 1: change in their mind every twenty four hours. What are

835
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: who would you rather do business with today? This is

836
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 1: not caping for China. I just respect them. You have

837
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 1: to respect competence. What we see here is a complete

838
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:35,240
Speaker 1: incompetence with devastating results for real people. These are people's lives.

839
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: Screw even the retirement accounts and all that stuff. People

840
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 1: just can start gettinglaid off like in the next month.

841
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 1: It's that's and that's step one. You know. And there's

842
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: no private compat there's no CCP to pay for your

843
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: health care or make sure you get an apartment. You know,

844
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: you're on your own in this country.

845
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 4: Yes, And the move that is available to them that

846
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 4: they're wisely taking woodn't isn't available to us on the

847
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 4: flip side. In other words, we have to try to

848
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 4: increase supply. We have to try to build manufacturing capacity overnight.

849
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 4: They have to just find demands somehow. It is much easier,

850
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 4: think about it. It's much easier to increase demand. And

851
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:18,439
Speaker 4: that's a great example of how they did twenty seven

852
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 4: billion dollars. You made a bunch of crap that you

853
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 4: were going to sell to the United States, but now

854
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 4: you can't sell it. We're going to buy a bunch

855
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 4: of that stuff, and they're going to get creative, and

856
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 4: they're going to find other places. They'll be with currency

857
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 4: manipulation and with state subsidies. They will move it into Africa,

858
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 4: South Asia, Europe, like you just mentioned South America.

859
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 3: A lot of these countries are going to get some

860
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: real good.

861
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 4: Deals on some Chinese stuff and maybe that produces long

862
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 4: lasting relationships, and then it could, let's say, in peace

863
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 4: to Africa, it could end up, you know, with a

864
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 4: little bit of economic stimulus, because then the products come

865
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 4: in and then the products get resold on the secondary market,

866
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 4: and that creates jobs for people, and it creates and

867
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 4: it creates a chain between those those countries and China.

868
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 4: That's so much easier to think through and to do,

869
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 4: especially if you're planning it from the top, than it

870
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 4: is to create supply overnight, especially when the inputs to

871
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 4: make that supply are controlled by China. It's so comically

872
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:22,439
Speaker 4: stupid that it could never have worked in this way.

873
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 4: The only thing the US could have done and could

874
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 4: still do, is invest in its own manufacturing capacity, invest

875
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 4: in educate, education and building up a trade workforce. UH

876
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 4: subsidize the construction of manufacturing facilities, and then use American

877
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 4: diplomatic power to create markets for the for those companies.

878
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 4: And then down the road, if they're deeply struggling, you

879
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 4: can do targeted tariffs, you know, on the particular industry

880
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 4: that that could work.

881
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 3: Like that's that's that's that's not doesn't take a genius

882
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 3: to come.

883
00:40:58,239 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 1: Up with that.

884
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 3: But this never was going to work.

885
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 1: No, so let's go to recession, shall we? And miss

886
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: major titans of Wall Street are now saying recte. Now,

887
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 1: I want to be clear, I don't like these people,

888
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: Ray Dalio, Larry Fink, all these other folks. You still

889
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 1: have to listen because Wall Street is an expectations game, right,

890
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 1: so fu gets it's all fake. And so whenever somebody

891
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: who is a global market player says we're in a recession,

892
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: it can actually become a self fulfilling prophecy. So even

893
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 1: if we don't like these people, we don't like what

894
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 1: they represent, and we think they're responsible for a lot

895
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 1: of bad that's happened in the country, it doesn't matter

896
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: because when you control hundreds of billions of dollars literally

897
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 1: at your disposal, not to mention, you know, basically an

898
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 1: arm of overall UF soft power of market activity of deals.

899
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 1: If you say that there's going to be a contraction

900
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: in recession on CNBC, it will cause all your peers,

901
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: also titans of industry, to do the same thing. So

902
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 1: that's why we have to pay attention when these people speak.

903
00:41:57,880 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen Larry Fank, CEO of Black Ride.

904
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 1: Here's what we had to say.

905
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 7: The United States post World War Two was a global stabilizer.

906
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 7: We are the global destabilizer right now. That's a very

907
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 7: you know, that's a very hard thing to say because

908
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 7: I pride ourselves of being, you know, bringing the leadership,

909
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 7: bringing the conversations, celebrate. Yes, I do believe we're probably starting,

910
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 7: if not, we're in a recession. Yes, I think the

911
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 7: market is still anticipating underestimating how high inflation can get.

912
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 7: If you factor in all the terraces, right, you factor

913
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 7: in all these other issues, it's going to be quite additive.

914
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 7: I mean I read in a report that if you

915
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 7: just take the terrace in the cost of home building,

916
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 7: the average new home could be up as much as

917
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 7: twenty six percent. We already have a housing affordability problem.

918
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 4: None of this sounds any good to me, all right,

919
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 4: I mean, and it's all self inflicted, by the way, none.

920
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 6: Of it needed.

921
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 7: This is not a pandemic, This is not a financial

922
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 7: price is. This is something that we've created.

923
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,720
Speaker 1: So you can see from his comments there specifically about

924
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: recession and about contraction increase of goods, that this is quote,

925
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,720
Speaker 1: if we are not in a recession, if you factor

926
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: in all the terariffs, is going to be quite additives.

927
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 1: I do believe we are probably starting so you could

928
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 1: see from him. We also have Ray Dallio, the quote

929
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: legendary investor. I'll tell you more about Dalio in a

930
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: little bit, but you got to hand it to him.

931
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 1: He actually wrote a decent enough book and as always

932
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,919
Speaker 1: as worth listening to. Here's what he had to say.

933
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 8: I think that right now we are at a decision

934
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 8: making point and very close to recession, and I'm worried

935
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 8: about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well.

936
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,959
Speaker 8: A recession is two negative quarters of GDP, and whether

937
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 8: it goes slightly there, we always have those things. We

938
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 8: have something that's much more profound. We have a breaking

939
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,720
Speaker 8: down of the monetary order. We are going to change

940
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 8: the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money.

941
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: So we have that problem.

942
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 8: And when we talk about the dollar and we talk

943
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 8: about tariffs, we have that we are having profound changes

944
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 8: in our domestic order, how ruling is existing, and we're

945
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 8: having profound changes in the world order. Such times are

946
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 8: very much like the nineteen thirties. I've studied history and

947
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 8: this repeats over and over again. So if you take tariffs,

948
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 8: if you take debt, if you take the rising power

949
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 8: challenging existing power, if you take those factors and look

950
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 8: at the factors, those changes in the orders the systems

951
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 8: are very, very disruptive. How that's handled could produce something

952
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 8: that is much worse than a recession.

953
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 3: Much worse than recession. Yeah, that's n I want to

954
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 3: hear for no reason.

955
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 1: And specifically, what he's talking about is the dollar market.

956
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 1: So like we're literally right as you and I are speaking, Ryan,

957
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 1: there's been a huge decline in the dollar globally. People

958
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 1: are fleeing the dollar and the currency is now now

959
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 1: Basically the reason why it matters is that not only

960
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: do we have an import shock in terms of tariffs,

961
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: but now those imports priced in foreign currencies will be

962
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,720
Speaker 1: more expensive with relatives. So there's been an overall slight

963
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 1: increase in the currency exchange rate that is being added

964
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 1: on top of the tariffs. At the same time, we

965
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: have the bond market problem that is happening right now,

966
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 1: increasing the amount of costs for borrowing from the United

967
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: States of America and debt servicing, So bond market yield increases,

968
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: dollar decreases the overall imports. Here, you have a contractual environment.

969
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 1: This is genuinely akin to like the nineteen seventies in

970
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: some sort of stagflation level crisis. The only thing that

971
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: we are missing is high unemployment, and luckily we are

972
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 1: not there yet, but we have all of the ingredients

973
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: to create high unemployment if we do not back away

974
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 1: and change this policy. Look, let's also say this Trump

975
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: has the off ramp any time that he wants it

976
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: can be like, look, we're going to do bilateral negotiations

977
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 1: and it's going to take a year, right, but this

978
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: current idea is ninety days. The current ninety day hypothesis.

979
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: I looked it up. The average bilateral negotiation between the

980
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 1: United States and another country takes one to five years.

981
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 1: One to five years for a bilateral trading goes. So

982
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: the idea that you're going to do seventy different negotiations

983
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 1: over a ninety day period preposterous. We can't even do

984
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 1: one with the UK, with our greatest allies in years,

985
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 1: and we still don't even have a freaking violence make anything.

986
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, and yeah, you're right, they don't even do anything.

987
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 4: All they do is send is scotch right. Yes, it's

988
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 4: not even difficult.

989
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 1: To figure out. I'm joking my good friends over there

990
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 1: combat we love you.

991
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know.

992
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 4: It's like, let's put up Charlie Gasparino the next element

993
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 4: here too, which is you know, and he's saying that

994
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 4: what what Sager is saying is reflected in all of

995
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,240
Speaker 4: the conversations that Gasparino is having with the investors and CEOs,

996
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 4: that all of these factors are are coming together to

997
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 4: produce a recession. And my quibble with Sager's point is,

998
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 4: so you're saying that Trump could Trump could end this.

999
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 4: Yes he could, and there would be a nice, nice

1000
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 4: spike and we'll start to pick up the pieces again.

1001
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: There's already and it's hard to maybe even explain this

1002
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 4: to people. There's already significant damage done. Businesses are you

1003
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 4: know some I'm sure there you can if you run

1004
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 4: one of these businesses. Let us know, like businesses are

1005
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 4: going under, like companies that run in this just in

1006
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 4: time cash flow fashion, which is basically any company under

1007
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 4: like Apple.

1008
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: Uh.

1009
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 3: Those are those are struggling.

1010
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 8: Uh.

1011
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 4: And then the other question is, okay, Trump, will Trump

1012
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 4: could make a decision here? How does China respond? Is

1013
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 4: chairman she merciful? Because maybe Chairman she is like, you

1014
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 4: know what, we've got our boot on their neck right now,

1015
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:53,720
Speaker 4: and we're actually liking the soybean deal that we're getting

1016
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 4: from Brazil Argentina.

1017
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw Mike Grounds.

1018
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 4: Complaining in a political article this morning because they're getting

1019
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 4: absolutely wrecked. Something like twenty eight percent of commodities exported

1020
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 4: out of South Dakota go to China. It's over a billion,

1021
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 4: you know, more than a billion dollars like this, this

1022
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 4: is just one little state. What so does China have

1023
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,919
Speaker 4: to automatically immediately be like all right, you know, it's cool.

1024
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 3: You guys had a bit of a temper tantrum.

1025
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,440
Speaker 4: All's well, we're back all the deals that we had

1026
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:34,800
Speaker 4: before back on. And that's on the on the fantasy

1027
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 4: kind of that Trump just immediately buckles on everything is

1028
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 4: Trump just keeps coming back with, Oh, well, well guys,

1029
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 4: I'm not done with this, Like.

1030
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 3: We've been getting ripped off for decades and I'm going

1031
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 3: to do this.

1032
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 4: Like Trump seems deeply committed to this bit, like all

1033
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 4: the all the way down to me, you'd have to

1034
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 4: have Congress step in and be like, no, president doesn't

1035
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 4: have the authority anymore to just move tariffs around. Yeah,

1036
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 4: I'm sure, and that needs two thirds. That needs two

1037
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 4: thirds because Trump is going to veto. Then do you

1038
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 4: have any idea where the doubt would have to be

1039
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 4: for that to happen? Yeah, there's a place you have

1040
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 4: to be.

1041
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:12,720
Speaker 3: There's a spot.

1042
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 4: I'm thinking seventy and seven percent on employment.

1043
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 1: What do you think seventy percent? Seventy percent drop?

1044
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe a seventy I think three fourths drop.

1045
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: In the three fourths drops because even fifty oh, two

1046
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: thousand and nine we came back, it would have to

1047
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 1: be yeah, I think seventy percent.

1048
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 4: Or you lose eight hundred thousand jobs in a month, right,

1049
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 4: and and you lose you know, five thousand.

1050
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 1: Mass unemployment, thirteen percent interest right, yeah, maybe, and.

1051
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 4: Then Congress is like, okay, you know what, Actually, we're

1052
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 4: taking these toys away from you. You can play with

1053
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 4: these matches.

1054
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,439
Speaker 1: I mean, that is one fantasy. I keep seeing people saying,

1055
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 1: oh my gosh.

1056
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:47,959
Speaker 4: We did not want that fantasy to come true because

1057
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 4: it means that we will have marched right through.

1058
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: Well. I meant people have this fantasy that Congress is

1059
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 1: going to do something. No, they're not. Okay, Congress is

1060
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 1: currently the Republican Congress is currently trying to cut one

1061
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 1: trillion dollars from the overall government spending, meanwhile also increasing

1062
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: the amount spent on the Pentagon. Just so everybody understands,

1063
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 1: that's the stated goal. I'm not kidding. Trump said, let's

1064
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: cut a trillion. He said that, yeah, all right, and

1065
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 1: the the Republicans are the currently. By the way, the

1066
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 1: only way to do that actually would be to reduce

1067
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 1: overall manufacturing tax credits.

1068
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 4: Just so you all though, so a sort of borrowing

1069
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 4: really genius baring costs, like you said, are going through

1070
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 4: the roof because our cost interest rates are going up.

1071
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: That's storing thirty thirty.

1072
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 3: Her mortgage rates are at their highest levels, which.

1073
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 1: Is I think they're at like seventy percent. Yeah, it's

1074
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:31,880
Speaker 1: a disaster. Yeah, so yeah, things are not good. And finally,

1075
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 1: B three, let's put this up there on the screen.

1076
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 1: This is very important and this kind of gets to

1077
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: your point, Ryan, quote Trump tariffs on China will soon

1078
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: bring irreversible damage to many businesses. And the reason why

1079
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: is that, you know, anybody who's ever run a business,

1080
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 1: can you really take a ninety day freeze to your books?

1081
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 6: No?

1082
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:52,839
Speaker 1: I mean the vast majority of people cannot survive that. Yeah,

1083
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: if you're Apple, sure, if you're Meta, yeah, and you

1084
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 1: have you know, this business that spits off all this cash.

1085
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 1: That's not what most people do. Is actually smaller businesses,

1086
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 1: e commerce businesses and more. You know, if you look

1087
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 1: at here, quote canceled freight orders and abandoned freight from

1088
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 1: China are quickly becoming the norm. According to supply chain executives,

1089
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,439
Speaker 1: furniture producers in China have seen a quote complete halt

1090
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:15,919
Speaker 1: in orders from US importers. We are seeing the same

1091
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 1: across toys, apparel, footwear, sports equipment. We have had same

1092
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 1: across Southeast Asia. Now we may have some restart because

1093
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 1: of the ninety day pause. Almost everything is on hold

1094
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 1: as it relates to China's business. Basically, it will stop

1095
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 1: all trade between the United States and China. These are

1096
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,760
Speaker 1: all people I'm quoting who are supply chain and logistics experts.

1097
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: I also, you know, we had Ryan Peterson on the show,

1098
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 1: who I previously mentioned, and Ryan is just constantly flagging

1099
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 1: about how difficult it is for all of these people

1100
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 1: to do business, you know, under these current economic conditions.

1101
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 1: And look, there are some who are able to take

1102
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 1: advantage with some decent enough cash that are on the books,

1103
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 1: but there are not enough people who are able to

1104
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:02,280
Speaker 1: survive any of this. Are simply having to freeze everything.

1105
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 1: And we are seeing already the stories come out. You know,

1106
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 1: across the board of e commerce businesses, smaller people who

1107
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 1: produce things limited an amount of cash, can't afford lots

1108
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 1: of inventory. You know, they didn't do anything wrong, right,

1109
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: and if you're going to kill their business overnight, I

1110
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 1: think the government should give you something for it, kind

1111
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 1: of like COVID, you know. And look, you can you

1112
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 1: could disagree with lockdowns and all that, and you're right,

1113
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: if we didn't do lockdowns, and I guess we wouldn't

1114
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 1: have had to do bailouts or any of that. But

1115
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 1: can we all agree that if we didn't lock you down,

1116
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 1: then the government of course owes you some renunration. If

1117
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 1: they're going to explicitly tell you that, then of course

1118
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 1: you can't just kill somebody overnight, you know, whenever you're

1119
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 1: doing business and not just you know, and just take it.

1120
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: But apparently that is that is the current state of

1121
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 1: where things are.

1122
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:46,879
Speaker 4: That's what a strategic approach to a trade war would

1123
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 4: look like to say, oh, which is what the Chinese

1124
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 4: are doing right exactly, like this is going to be

1125
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 4: hard for one hundred and eighty days. Yeah, and this

1126
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:54,839
Speaker 4: is how we as a government are going to help

1127
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 4: our people. Whether this because this is important for all

1128
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 4: of us and we're in this together in Yeah, we're

1129
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 4: not getting that.

1130
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, well they are, okay or.

1131
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: Not they are?

1132
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right.

1133
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: Yeah. Actually, I'm really curious to see, let's say this

1134
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 1: last year, we need to compare the material life of

1135
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 1: the American after one year and the average Chinese and

1136
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 1: not just some guy inching in like an actual like

1137
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: a normal middle class Chinese person, And I would love

1138
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: to see how that actually, I mean Look, it's possible

1139
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 1: they're bluffing, right, It's technically possible. Yes, they have high

1140
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 1: amounts of state capacity. They still have a billion people.

1141
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 1: They have you know, they're addicted to six to eight

1142
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 1: percent economic growth. They had the zero COVID nonsense, which

1143
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:39,280
Speaker 1: really exposed like the fragility of the overall Chinese system.

1144
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:41,799
Speaker 1: For all the BYD talk and all that, you still

1145
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 1: have a lot of people who are very concerned sociologically

1146
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 1: about mass unemployments.

1147
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 3: Worries that they yeah, AI bubble right.

1148
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,759
Speaker 1: I mean, but just generally I would still rather be

1149
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 1: them than I would rather be us right now, at

1150
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 1: least in terms of how things are working out. Okay,

1151
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:01,320
Speaker 1: let's go to consumer sentiment, and this is kind of

1152
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 1: what we were teasing, and this really does demonstrate some

1153
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 1: of the issues where these are always filming prophecies. So

1154
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 1: if people have less consumer sentiment and want to spend money,

1155
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 1: then they will spend less money, which will lead to

1156
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:16,359
Speaker 1: an overall economic contraction. Let's go and put this up

1157
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 1: there on the screen. Quote from anxious to petrified, consumer

1158
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 1: sentiment plunges further. The University of Michigan's Closely Washed index

1159
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 1: has now hit its seconst lowest reading on record, Dragged

1160
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:32,919
Speaker 1: down by fears of higher prices and unemployment, Americans turned

1161
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 1: much more pessimistic about the economy. In April, the University

1162
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 1: of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index nosedive to fifty from fifty

1163
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 1: seven just last month. Sentiment has been falling steadily through

1164
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and expectations for inflation have now hit

1165
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 1: the highest level in forty four years. According to the survey,

1166
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 1: sentiment is now at its second lowest in history, only

1167
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 1: slightly lower in June twenty twenty two, when inflation was

1168
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: soaring thanks to snarl supply chains and pandemic buying. Back

1169
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, the index actually did touch fifty,

1170
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: which was the lowest reading on record going back to

1171
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: nineteen fifty two. So that's basically where we're back at

1172
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 1: in terms of inflation expectations. The survey basically what they

1173
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 1: do is it actually took place over the Turff time.

1174
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 1: So it's important to note that that a lot of

1175
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 1: this is in real time data. People are, you know,

1176
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 1: accepting this, and what you're watching in the data is

1177
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 1: that people are very concerned about their ability to buy things,

1178
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 1: and specifically about the expectation for inflation hitting some forty

1179
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,439
Speaker 1: four year high, which means they are going to keep

1180
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 1: cash or cash if you've got it, not spend it,

1181
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 1: not do any normal economic activity, not make any major plans.

1182
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,680
Speaker 1: And in a seventy percent consumer based society, that is

1183
00:55:41,719 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 1: the worst possible thing you can do. In China, you

1184
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 1: can get away with a lower consumer sentiment. You're not

1185
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 1: as hooked on it out manufacturing, we got a lot

1186
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 1: more fundamentals. And in America with cheap TVs and all

1187
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 1: this other Walmart and all these other countries that are

1188
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 1: all these other companies good luck, you know, talking about

1189
00:55:57,800 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 1: what Easter's coming up? Are people going to be buying

1190
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 1: present we're going to be traveling or people you know,

1191
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 1: these are all decisions that people make already. Delta Airlines

1192
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:06,800
Speaker 1: came out and said, we have seen a mass cancelation

1193
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 1: of bookings across the board. We are watching economic activity

1194
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: go down. We have to revise earnings. Walmart actually is expecting,

1195
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 1: hilariously enough increase business on the theory that they always

1196
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 1: do well during recessions. So keep that in mind. You know,

1197
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:24,880
Speaker 1: the companies or what is it, Walmart, McDonald's always did

1198
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:28,320
Speaker 1: well tree, dollar Tree dollar general. The recession proof industries

1199
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 1: not recesion proof. Of the people we thrivesion. They're actually thinking, oh,

1200
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,399
Speaker 1: actually we're going to see more low price customers. All

1201
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 1: of the data out there for forecasts on the books

1202
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 1: shows that consumer good retailers, and they're getting crushed at

1203
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 1: the stock market level. I mean, Nike is down some

1204
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,279
Speaker 1: twenty percent or something like that. I resolved of a

1205
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 1: lot of these tariffs at one point. Even with Vietnam,

1206
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:50,800
Speaker 1: things have changed a little bit for them, but you

1207
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: can just see that the danger lurks for all of

1208
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 1: them in this consumption based society.

1209
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:56,840
Speaker 4: That word, yeah, this is the whole thing. And so

1210
00:56:57,080 --> 00:57:00,400
Speaker 4: that that's all well said on the economic model. My

1211
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 4: colleague Mobs is saying over drop Side is I've seen

1212
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 4: him often make this point that, and you know he's

1213
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 4: he observes a lot of different cultures around the world,

1214
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:13,240
Speaker 4: and one thing that he talks about with the United

1215
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 4: States is that we are, as much as we love

1216
00:57:17,480 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 4: to like hate on ourselves, one of the most successful

1217
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 4: pluralistic societies. Like, yes, we have our divisions, people don't

1218
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 4: like each other, but like not compared to other countries,

1219
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 4: like we have a multicultural society that gets along relatively

1220
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 4: relatively well and definitely relative to other countries. The glue

1221
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 4: that stitches all that together is our consumer society. We

1222
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 4: all love stuff, and we love the shows that are

1223
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 4: organized around us buying stuff. We love events that are

1224
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 4: built around stuff like Friday. And also you go to

1225
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 4: like parties at the in the US, like there's the

1226
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 4: cheap stuff everywhere there consumer driven things, like everybody's buying

1227
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 4: stuff for these events. Like the culture is tied together

1228
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 4: by the consumer society and it is effectively done so too.

1229
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:08,480
Speaker 4: You don't have to love the consumer society, but it's

1230
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 4: laudable that you can have a multicultural, pluralistic society that

1231
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 4: isn't breaking out into sectarian violence in a in like

1232
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 4: a routine way.

1233
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 3: Pull that away, good luck.

1234
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,920
Speaker 4: So like just like no matter how bad you think

1235
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 4: things are, like, they can always get a lot worse.

1236
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 4: And so you've you ripped the rug out from underneath

1237
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 4: that we might be at each other's throats.

1238
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 1: What's the quote, It's like it's always darkest just.

1239
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 4: Before if we can't have like the Sunday NFL, Yeah,

1240
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 4: that's Thursday night.

1241
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I was saying about Easter, I mean

1242
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 1: Eastern candy. Right, Let's say you even see a ten

1243
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 1: percent drop in overall, that's a lot. I mean, you know,

1244
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 1: that's a lot of inventory. Now I got a discount

1245
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 1: and I got to house it. You got all these problems,

1246
00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 1: what do you do? You know, people are going to

1247
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 1: try and drop the price on the sixty seventy percent.

1248
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 1: People usually go home for Easter Sunday or so they're

1249
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 1: not buying gas if they decide not to decide to

1250
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 1: cancel their travel. Or sometimes you give gifts to your

1251
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 1: nieces and nephews. This year, you're gonna give a little bit,

1252
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 1: Like these are all these decisions compound, you know. For example,

1253
00:59:14,560 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 1: I was talking to my barber and I was like,

1254
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 1: I'm just curious. Have you seen anything goes? Yeah, I

1255
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:21,320
Speaker 1: have noticed that people who used to come in every

1256
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 1: three weeks are now going five, you know, and that's

1257
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 1: sounds like it doesn't sound crazy to you. Individuals. A

1258
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 1: compound that over your entire customer base and you're seeing

1259
00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 1: a turn of a pretty serious hit to your bottom line,

1260
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 1: and you multiply that across the entire economy.

1261
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 4: And the NFL, for instance, like the whole reason that

1262
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 4: it's able to be the league that it is is

1263
00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 4: because of the advertising revenue, right, that comes in, and

1264
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 4: if people are not buying the stuff that's advertised on

1265
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 4: those commercials, then you're not gonna pay You're not gonna

1266
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 4: pay the advertising rates anymore.

1267
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,200
Speaker 3: And then the thing starts to collapse, starts to go backwards.

1268
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 1: Actually, we can serve as a good indicator as well

1269
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: because of our YouTube back end. I remember, I will

1270
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 1: never forget what the YouTube backhand over at Rising looked

1271
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:09,400
Speaker 1: like back in March, and in April of twenty twenty

1272
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 1: it evaporated, right, It was like this gone over, probably

1273
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 1: like ninety percent of the revenue. So yeah, I can

1274
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 1: Unfortunately we can tell.

1275
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 3: You really, have you noticed anything.

1276
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 1: I'm taking a look now. No, I actually think it

1277
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 1: seems fine and tight. Things seems fine.

1278
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 3: We're still buying stuff. Fu I think seems.

1279
01:00:26,120 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 1: Actually, you know, this is a good time to say this.

1280
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 1: So you know our premium show that we send out

1281
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 1: to people, this is a good Uh, yeah, this is

1282
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 1: I've always noticed this our premium show which we send out.

1283
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 1: It is an unlisted link and also available on local Spotify,

1284
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 1: et cetera. One of the places people watch it is

1285
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:44,840
Speaker 1: sometimes an unlisted YouTube video that is available. Our premium

1286
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 1: describers have been telling us that even though we earn

1287
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:49,640
Speaker 1: again we earn no money from this. We are not

1288
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 1: turning monetization on. YouTube reserves the right to monetize that

1289
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 1: if they want to, and it's always a recesion indicator

1290
01:00:57,480 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 1: to me when they start doing that, because I remember

1291
01:01:00,160 --> 01:01:01,920
Speaker 1: right back in twenty twenty two when we launched a

1292
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 1: show immediately when the gas price is skyrocketed and we

1293
01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 1: saw the pullback. That's when they started doing it a lot.

1294
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 1: They stopped. Now recently, just in the last two weeks,

1295
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 1: people have been complaining at an auseum, saying, oh my god,

1296
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: because they're paid. Yeah, of course it should. I'm not

1297
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:16,920
Speaker 1: mad at them. I'm telling you is that that is

1298
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 1: a major sign to me that they're trying to fill

1299
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 1: as much inventory as possible to blast it and satisfy

1300
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 1: some of their advertising. And again, we make not one

1301
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:28,360
Speaker 1: dollar from that. We don't want them to do it,

1302
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:30,800
Speaker 1: So I guess that's a shout out if you do

1303
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:33,160
Speaker 1: want to watch it totally add free. Spotify is still

1304
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:35,960
Speaker 1: there and locals is still there as well. But unfortunately,

1305
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 1: if you watch it on YouTube. There is nothing that

1306
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 1: we can do, and it's infuriating, but that is a

1307
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 1: signal to me. You know that YouTube is basically throwing

1308
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 1: everything they've gotten, a little bit, all inventory that they've

1309
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 1: got there, thrown as many ads into that as possible.

1310
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 1: And when they do that, it means that they're probably

1311
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 1: making less in terms of their CPM, so they got

1312
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 1: to fill it up with more ad blocks than normal.

1313
01:01:57,680 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 1: So just a little bit of insight behind the scenes.

1314
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:01,920
Speaker 1: Let's go to the last part here. Just see three. Please,

1315
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 1: This is just about the bond market. This is the

1316
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:06,400
Speaker 1: same thing that we have been looking at. But you

1317
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 1: can really see that those yields continue to increase to

1318
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 1: levels which they really do not want them to. They're

1319
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 1: very worried about going to a yield of some five

1320
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:17,840
Speaker 1: percent with a point five percent increase of a percent,

1321
01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 1: which is not supposed to happen really if you look

1322
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:22,720
Speaker 1: at the overall long term trends and that right now

1323
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:26,080
Speaker 1: with the current stated goal of bringing that yield down

1324
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,320
Speaker 1: and being unable to be to do so, if there's

1325
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: a worry about some runaway you know, basically selling of

1326
01:02:32,480 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 1: US bonds, which would make it so that the yield increases,

1327
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 1: borrowing costs, and mortgage rates and interest rates and all

1328
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 1: that continue to go very high, and it would very

1329
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 1: much cripple the administration. So that's another feedback loop where

1330
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 1: mortgage rates continue to go up. I actually think they're

1331
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 1: I think they went down after they were up at

1332
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:52,920
Speaker 1: some seven percent or whatever. Again, if everybody continues to so,

1333
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:55,200
Speaker 1: but people are still watching, right for the Federal Reserve,

1334
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 1: and if the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell and them

1335
01:02:57,680 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 1: decide not to do any sort of emergency rate cut,

1336
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 1: we really are stuck in this for a long time.

1337
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:04,920
Speaker 1: And there's a lot of things six point.

1338
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 3: You don't want that UH.

1339
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 4: And there is some question about how organized this is UH,

1340
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:15,240
Speaker 4: and we're still trying to sort sort this out. But

1341
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 4: there was reporting that Japan was dumping UH, that Japan

1342
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:20,800
Speaker 4: was dumping bonds.

1343
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:22,800
Speaker 1: And Japan is.

1344
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 4: Obviously one of the biggest holders of bonds now, China

1345
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 4: huge holder of bonds as well Canada. So we are

1346
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:34,040
Speaker 4: out there antagonizing all of these countries while they literally

1347
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 4: hold our cards. And if and if they take our

1348
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 4: cards and they just start selling a few of them,

1349
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:43,320
Speaker 4: that that drives down the price of our bonds and

1350
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 4: then drives up the yield. That's just mathematically like, there's

1351
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 4: no other's that's that's that's how it's going to work

1352
01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:49,480
Speaker 4: if there's a.

1353
01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 3: Sellouf and it's never worked that way before.

1354
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 4: For the most part, you have a crash in the

1355
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 4: stock market, that that means people are selling stocks and

1356
01:03:57,520 --> 01:04:00,560
Speaker 4: moving to the safety of treasury bonds. That is the

1357
01:04:00,840 --> 01:04:04,840
Speaker 4: orthodox understanding of the global economy that's broken right now,

1358
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 4: and it's probably a combination of people.

1359
01:04:07,640 --> 01:04:09,720
Speaker 3: Leaving the kind of structure of.

1360
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 4: The American dollar economy and our adversaries like Japan, who

1361
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 4: should be our friends, but we've turned them into adversaries,

1362
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 4: deliberately bringing pain to us so that we will back

1363
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 4: off of this because it costs them too. They don't

1364
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:26,200
Speaker 4: want to do this, because if you are a holder

1365
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 4: of American treasuries right now and you're selling into a

1366
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:34,960
Speaker 4: down market, you're losing millions and billions of dollars, but

1367
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 4: you're costing us a lot more. So, You're you're you're

1368
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 4: prioritizing geopolitics over your bottom line and the interests of

1369
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 4: your bottom line doing better down the road. And it

1370
01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:49,360
Speaker 4: is what like Trump was asked when he caved, why

1371
01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:51,960
Speaker 4: did you do this? And he said his exact quote was,

1372
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 4: the bond market is a very tricky thing.

1373
01:04:56,120 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 3: In it. James Carville famously Nippy James Carville.

1374
01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 4: Famously in nineteen ninety three said he if he was

1375
01:05:03,160 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 4: ever reincarnated, he wanted to come back as the bond

1376
01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 4: market because it was the most powerful world. I didn't

1377
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 4: know that because it's what what's the context?

1378
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 1: Right?

1379
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 4: So Clinton came in with grand a grand economic vision,

1380
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 4: and Larry Summers and his and his buddies told him,

1381
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 4: if you do this, the bond market is going to panic.

1382
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:22,200
Speaker 4: Interest rates are going to go up, and you'll have

1383
01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:25,760
Speaker 4: a recession. They're like, so you're telling us we ran

1384
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:27,920
Speaker 4: on this whole thing that we want to do and

1385
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 4: we can't because of the bond market. They're like, yes,

1386
01:05:31,000 --> 01:05:33,360
Speaker 4: that's what we're telling you, huh. And so that's the

1387
01:05:33,440 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 4: Carbo was like, when I get reincarnated, I want to

1388
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:36,320
Speaker 4: come back bond market.

1389
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:39,800
Speaker 1: I need to go back and just slap Trump back

1390
01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 1: into line. So do you have any good books on

1391
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,120
Speaker 1: the history of the Clinton administration? I only read My Life,

1392
01:05:44,120 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 1: which is complete propaganda. Yah, it's just laughable.

1393
01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:49,440
Speaker 3: Clinton's book let me think on that. I'm not sure.

1394
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 1: I don't know any decent ones. I still can't believe

1395
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 1: I even waste my time reading.

1396
01:05:54,840 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 4: It's seven hundred pages, two lifetimes.

1397
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:03,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's two volumes. It's so big anyway, all right, long, long,

1398
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:04,040
Speaker 1: long time ago

1399
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:17,000
Speaker 5: M.