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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: J us proud red enough. They're running a game.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, narsisting glory text procurition. Guys, all

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts, four thousand percent

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Speaker 1: of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shut with that shop of mind and buddy, and that's.

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Speaker 1: Why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous mountain of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them shut.

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Speaker 2: The woe its left.

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Speaker 1: To one the wide eyed, drilled Bibeus, How old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happened?

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Speaker 4: Loorie one And welcome back to Wondergul, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael lebuff

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Speaker 4: and joining me for this hour match week nine preview

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Speaker 4: of the Premier League season. Sam Ingram from Betting Expert

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Speaker 4: and BJ Cunningham and we have a.

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Speaker 5: Really fun slate this weekend in the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: I think all ten matches are quite fun to dive into,

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Speaker 4: and we also have a clear headliner, a massive, massive

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Speaker 4: match at the top. It's actually a twelve thirty kickoff

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Speaker 4: on Sunday afternoon over here in the States, and it's

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Speaker 4: Arsenal and Liverpool Liverpool top of the table. Arsenal are

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Speaker 4: sitting four points back, so could be a must win

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Speaker 4: situation for Arsenal even this early in the season.

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Speaker 5: But BJ the thing I'm looking at with these two teams.

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Speaker 4: And you would never say this about Arsenal Liverpool of

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Speaker 4: previous iterations, is there that much of a difference between

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Speaker 4: these two teams right now and the way they want

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Speaker 4: to play? Because I don't think it is, and I

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Speaker 4: think that's what is going to lead to where this

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Speaker 4: conversation goes. But the odds are Arsenal plus one forty,

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Speaker 4: there's a home lukewarm home favorite, Liverpool plus one ninety

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Speaker 4: on the three way line of the.

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Speaker 5: Draws plus two forty.

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Speaker 4: Because I feel like Liverpool kind of wants to play

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Speaker 4: the way Arsenal does right now, or vice versa. I

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Speaker 4: guess you could say because Liverpool is doing a better

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Speaker 4: job of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that. You know, the thing

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Speaker 1: about Liverpool right now, what was interesting what they did

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Speaker 1: against Chelsea and what they've kind of been doing to

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Speaker 1: a lot of these teams that will that like to

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Speaker 1: press high, especially in Amanda Man fashion, is they're playing

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Speaker 1: way more direct from goalkicks instead of just trying to

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Speaker 1: strictly build out of the back with short passes, and

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Speaker 1: then when they do build out of the back, it's

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Speaker 1: usually balls out wide, which is a conservative way of

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Speaker 1: doing it, because if you lose the ball, you know,

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Speaker 1: with the ball being out wide, it's a lot better

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Speaker 1: than the ball being in the center of the pitch

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Speaker 1: where teams can attack you right through the middle. So

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Speaker 1: that's why you've seen Liverpool's defense be so good, is that,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're constantly just you know, if you're

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Speaker 1: playing direct balls and giving seen the other ball and

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Speaker 1: letting them build up through your mid block, it's harder

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Speaker 1: for them to play through. And then when you lose

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Speaker 1: the ball in white areas, it also makes it harder

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Speaker 1: for teams to actually create chances. So you know, we

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Speaker 1: finally have a total Liverpool total below three now, which

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Speaker 1: I think is correct. I think this total should be

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Speaker 1: set at two and a half. As far as the

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Speaker 1: Arsenal price, I have Arsenal projected at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if Sokka is gonna play. He's fifty

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Speaker 1: to fifty right now. He hasn't played in the last

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Speaker 1: two matches. And the other thing is Saliba is injured,

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Speaker 1: and I know people will probably point out a lot

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Speaker 1: of the stats of when Saliba was out over the

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Speaker 1: second half of the season for Arsenal two years ago,

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Speaker 1: but you have to remember that all of Arsenal's other

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Speaker 1: center backs were injured as well, and they were playing

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Speaker 1: rob Holding for most of that season. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna see Arsenal's defense just take this like

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Speaker 1: drastic fall off like it did two years ago. You know,

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Speaker 1: they'll slot Ben White in there, and they'll probably have

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Speaker 1: to play Thomas Party a right back because I think

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Speaker 1: Eurian Timber is probably also gonna miss this match. Tomy

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Speaker 1: Asu is potentially out as well, and you can't really

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Speaker 1: play Jacob Keewar in that right center back role because

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Speaker 1: he's naturally a left back left center back type of player,

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Speaker 1: and Gabrielle is also in that left center back role.

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Speaker 1: So it's interesting to see what Arsenal will do. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if I were to play something, Michael, I

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Speaker 1: think the nil nil is definitely in place here and

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Speaker 1: definitely in play, and if I were to play anything

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Speaker 1: in this match, it'd be that or both teams to

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Speaker 1: score no. At plus one twenty five because these are

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Speaker 1: the two best defensive teams in the Premier League right now.

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Speaker 1: I know Arsenal's overall defensive metrics don't look good, but

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Speaker 1: they've also had three red cards, another red card over

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Speaker 1: the weekend against Bournemouth. But yeah, I think this is,

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Speaker 1: like you said, kind of a stalement with two teams

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Speaker 1: that are wanting to play a little bit more direct

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Speaker 1: and play very solid, compact defensive blocks. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be pretty hard for both teams to create chances.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, and jot it down. I like to

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Speaker 4: draw and the nil nil here when you know, if

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Speaker 4: you want to split your stake or just play the draw,

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Speaker 4: if you're a little bit smarter than me, go right

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Speaker 4: ahead and do it. Because I think that these two teams,

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Speaker 4: this turns into a little bit of a of a

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Speaker 4: stalemate of rock fight. And I also I've always had

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Speaker 4: this theory about especially in like the new age of

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Speaker 4: the Premier League since pep ruined everything you know, decade

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Speaker 4: ago or whatever at Barcelona now fifteen years that when

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Speaker 4: the when two teams that are two of the super

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Speaker 4: elites meet, that where you see with Byron in Barcelona

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Speaker 4: in the Champions League, whether one City plays Arsenal, the

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Speaker 4: game becomes so efficient and so mistake free that it

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Speaker 4: just never gets out of first gear.

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Speaker 5: Sam, And that's what I'm expecting here. I just don't.

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Speaker 5: I don't.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that this not to be a buzzkill.

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Speaker 4: But like, I just don't think that this thing is

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Speaker 4: going to be rampant or fun to watch.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got this down as a draw up plus

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Speaker 3: two two five b bit more of a lean for me.

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Speaker 3: Like bj mentioned without soccer, likely about soccer Saliba Cala

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Speaker 3: Fiori Timber told me to odder God for injuries and suspensions,

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Speaker 3: that has to be a really big concern. Liverpool have

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Speaker 3: come in from in terms of prices plus two sixty

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Speaker 3: nearer the start of October now to plus one a

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Speaker 3: eight on the back of both that injury news and

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Speaker 3: also Arsenal's lost to Bournemouth on Saturday soccer and Saliba

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Speaker 3: without them that that could be pivotal to Arsenal's chances

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Speaker 3: here and that redcord for Saliba, by the way, like

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Speaker 3: a long long way away from God.

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Speaker 2: What did you think of it? Were you having that

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Speaker 2: as as a red.

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Speaker 1: It is what it is. I mean, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: I feel like every Arsenal red has gone against them.

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, you don't want me to go

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Speaker 1: down conspiracy theory lane, but I think the Premer League

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Speaker 1: is out to relegate Everton and to try to force

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Speaker 1: Arsenals now in the Premier League. But I digress.

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Speaker 3: It was just interesting to me because like we see

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Speaker 3: that a lot, and the fact that he's given that

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Speaker 3: as a yellow on the pitch, I think that's probably

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Speaker 3: what will frustrate Arsenal fans the most. And then for

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Speaker 3: the TV cameras to then zoom in on Howard Webb

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Speaker 3: in the crowd off all that was hilarious because this

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Speaker 3: dis Arsenal fan base like that that is going to

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Speaker 3: send them over the edge off.

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Speaker 2: Well that was quite funny. But yeah.

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Speaker 3: So Liverpool fresh from turning Chelsea over, which I'd argue

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Speaker 3: they were good value for but now going to the

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Speaker 3: m's it's a different kind of test in recent seasons

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Speaker 3: and I'm not convinced how good Liverpool are in terms

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Speaker 3: of Premier League winning capabilities, and after that Chelsea performance,

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Speaker 3: I'm still not convinced, but I think maybe that's because

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Speaker 3: I'm also not so sure how good Chelsea are either,

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Speaker 3: but I think this is where they're going to kind

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Speaker 3: of prove themselves, and they well where they may prove

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Speaker 3: a thing or two on Sunday, I saw Arteta said

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Speaker 3: last night after the Shark taal win, believe me on

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Speaker 3: Sunday versus Liverpool, we will be flying. Trust me on that,

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Speaker 3: which I thought was interesting, very bullish, clearly supremely confident

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Speaker 3: in his arsenal side and looking at the main markets.

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Speaker 3: I'm not brave enough to take his arsenal side on

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Speaker 3: out of like Liverpool at plus two sixty, but that's

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Speaker 3: long gone. Now get a decent price on both of

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Speaker 3: the draw, no bet, which might appeal to some. There

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Speaker 3: was a two point seventy five go line which I

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Speaker 3: probably would have had a nibble on, but two point

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Speaker 3: five is about right. So yeah, I'm not sold on

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Speaker 3: anything and all honesty, which just leaves me with the

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Speaker 3: draw at plus two two five. So I'm happy enough

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Speaker 3: to pass and take a watching brief, but guns ahead,

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Speaker 3: I'll probably go with the draw, okay.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, all of us are sort of seeing this

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Speaker 4: the same way. The Neil Nils is around eleven to one,

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Speaker 4: so I do think it's it's definitely worth a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a sprinkle. All that brings us to Leicester

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Speaker 4: and nining of Forest up next, which gets the slates

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Speaker 4: started over the weekend. On Friday afternoon three pm Eastern Time,

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Speaker 4: we get some Friday Night lights with Leicester as a

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Speaker 4: plus one eighty five home underdog, nning and Forrest continues

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Speaker 4: to tear it up plus one fifty five for the

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Speaker 4: tricky Trees. They are short rest since they played on

180
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Speaker 4: Monday and now it's a quick turnaround to Friday, just

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Speaker 4: getting them prepared for the the relentless nature of European football,

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Speaker 4: because that's where Forest is heading.

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Speaker 5: It seems they.

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Speaker 4: Are plus one fifty five the draws plus two thirty.

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Speaker 4: I like Forrest here. I just think that they are

186
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Speaker 4: better than lest they're they're but there's enough of a

187
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Speaker 4: gap between these two teams that the worries about the

188
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Speaker 4: quick turnaround and going on the road kind of doesn't

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Speaker 4: throw me off. And everything that nodding of Force is

190
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Speaker 4: doing kind of feels and looks legitimate. They're just grinding

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Speaker 4: out wins and who are getting grinding out points and

192
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Speaker 4: it's working for them. Sitting at thirteen for eight, that's

193
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Speaker 4: the same as Tottenham the expected goal difference is fine

194
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Speaker 4: for a team like Forrest only one defeat on the year,

195
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Speaker 4: Sam like I don't know, I think this number looks

196
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Speaker 4: quite appealing and Force I.

197
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Speaker 3: Think Forrest edges it in terms of quality and maybe

198
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Speaker 3: the likelihood of again a result of the line. But

199
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Speaker 3: on the weekend it was a massive win for Leicester's

200
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Speaker 3: city in maybe the ninety eighth minute, I want to say,

201
00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,880
Speaker 3: with Southampton two and up and from a Leicester point

202
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Speaker 3: of view, I suppose what is the most impressive thing

203
00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,240
Speaker 3: is that there is definitely a bit of fight about

204
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Speaker 3: this Leicester side. That there may not be quality there

205
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Speaker 3: in abundance in each and every position, but there's definitely

206
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Speaker 3: fight and we've seen that a few times now when

207
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Speaker 3: the Steve Cooper fended off Bournemouth at home. Theyde bag

208
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Speaker 3: two at the Emirates, so Cooper must have got them

209
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Speaker 3: minute halftime and in the second half the game changed

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Speaker 3: largely though through Abdult Fatu on the right. He came

211
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Speaker 3: on for Leicester at nil nil, pushed Bonanotti inside and

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Speaker 3: Fatou caused all kinds of havoc down that right flank.

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Speaker 3: The left back couldn't cope with him hit the woodwork

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Speaker 3: had a head of well saved which led to a

215
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Speaker 3: Vardy penalty, and he was just so direct, relentless every time,

216
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Speaker 3: running in behind the fallback whenever he picked the ball up.

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Speaker 3: And the reason I bring it up is because Leicester

218
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Speaker 3: will need that.

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Speaker 2: They are going to.

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Speaker 3: Struggle breaking Forest down, They're going to struggle creating chances.

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Speaker 3: So for me, Steve Cooper has to start Fatuo in

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Speaker 3: this game.

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Speaker 2: They have to really.

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Speaker 3: Utilize him and make good use of him because without

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Speaker 3: something like that, without that direct running, without beating a

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Speaker 3: man in creating space, I think they might really struggle.

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Speaker 3: So we've seen Nottingham Forest have been incredibly stingy and

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Speaker 3: I imagine they will be again on Friday night when

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Speaker 3: they were at home to Palace for them on the weekend.

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Speaker 3: I said last week that they might be in a

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Speaker 3: tricky spot last week with absentees and suspensions, but they

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Speaker 3: were absolutely fine, continuing to impress. They've conceded just eight

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Speaker 3: point eighty one XGA this season, which is the same

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Speaker 3: as Manchester City after eight games and not far off

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Speaker 3: Liverpool in first so lest actually opened the slight favorites here,

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Speaker 3: but now it's Forrest favors the zero point zero Asian

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Speaker 3: handicap line drawn no Bett alternative can be taken around

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Speaker 3: minus one point fifteen.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate that. That's why I've ended up at

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Speaker 2: the prices. I was also leaning towards a.

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Speaker 3: Draw, but I'd rather get the Forest win on side

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Speaker 3: as well. And yeah, as mentioned, Leicester will really need

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Speaker 3: a spark to break down that Forest defense, so Cooper's

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Speaker 3: got to start fatuo. I'm just not sewed on them

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Speaker 3: running out comfortable winners here, which is why I'm going

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Speaker 3: to take Forest on the DRAWNO bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with Sam. I think that Nottingham Forest

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Speaker 1: is a great price here. You know, the thing that

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Speaker 1: was interesting from the Lester match was how good Southampton

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Speaker 1: was at creating chances via crosses, right Like they were

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Speaker 1: consistently getting two v ones outside or just getting their

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Speaker 1: fallback Leicester's fallbacks into one v ones and they were

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Speaker 1: beating them to create a ton of crosses, great chances

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Speaker 1: off of crosses, and that's exactly how Nottingham Forrest wants

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Speaker 1: to play. So Lester this season in eleven v eleven

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Speaker 1: situations is allowing two point three to three expected goals

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Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. That is the highest mark in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League. On the other end of the spectrum, in

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Speaker 1: those eleven to v eleven situations, they're only averaging one point

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Speaker 1: zero seven expected goals per ninety minutes. So the defense

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Speaker 1: has been terrible. The offense really hasn't been able to

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Speaker 1: create much at if you take away the Southampton match,

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Speaker 1: there's only been one other match where they've created over

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Speaker 1: one expected goal and it was against Crystal Palace. I

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Speaker 1: would be not shocked, but it would be it'll take

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Speaker 1: a lot for them to create over one expected goal

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Speaker 1: against Nottingham Forrest in this match because of how good

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Speaker 1: they have been defensively. And I know Chris Wood is

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Speaker 1: thirty two years old, and I know he's been around

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Speaker 1: for a long time, but he's just a good striker,

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Speaker 1: Like I think we just need to admit it, like

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Speaker 1: he is their best striker. He's very very productive nineteen

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Speaker 1: goals since the start of last season, zero point five

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Speaker 1: to seven expect expected goal per ninety minutes scoring rate,

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Speaker 1: and he is a really big threat off of those crosses,

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Speaker 1: so I like him to score at plus two forty

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Speaker 1: as well. In this match he scored against Crystal palace

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Speaker 1: off of a cross or now, excuse me, off of

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Speaker 1: a volley. But like you said, Michael, there's a there's

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Speaker 1: a clear gap between these two teams right now. And

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Speaker 1: also Lester has conceded five expecting goals of a set piece,

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Speaker 1: is only conceded one actual goal. Notting Forest has been

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Speaker 1: incredibly dangerous off them this season, so not a great spot.

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Speaker 1: Not a great spot for Notning and for is having

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Speaker 1: to play on Monday and then Friday, another team the

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Speaker 1: Premier leagu'es out to get So I like Nottingham Forest

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Speaker 1: with you guys, drown o Bett minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 4: Okay, that brings us to the biggest the widest line

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Speaker 4: of the slate. Manchester City is sitting minus one thousand

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Speaker 4: at home taking out Southampton who are eighteen to one.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is eleven to one. I don't have

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Speaker 4: much here, but I do think that the path you

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Speaker 4: guys are walking down is certainly viable considering what we've

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Speaker 4: seen from City the season.

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Speaker 1: BJA, I have a trippery question for you guys. Can

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Speaker 1: you tell me the last time Manchester City had a

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Speaker 1: clean sheet in the Premier League?

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Speaker 3: It was.

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Speaker 1: Correct? That was the last time when they held a

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Speaker 1: clean sheet against Chelsea, they have conceded a goal d

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's by coincidence either, because what has

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Speaker 1: happened now that City doesn't have rodri Is Pep has

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Speaker 1: just made a tactical decision that we're just going to

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Speaker 1: press relentlessly and just super aggressively and we'll just live

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Speaker 1: with getting beaten transition because the reward of their press

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Speaker 1: and turning teams over far outweighs the risk of getting

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Speaker 1: beaten transition. That's kind of what happened this season. So

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Speaker 1: I think that sets up pretty well for Southampton, who

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Speaker 1: have shown over the last couple of matches that they

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Speaker 1: can play direct like they can play those balls in

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Speaker 1: behind to archer das Fernandez like Southampton has, they're not

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Speaker 1: a bottom feeder offense, like they have created over ten

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Speaker 1: expected goals in their eight matches. They've created nine big

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Speaker 1: scoring chances. And another big advantage that they'll have over

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Speaker 1: City is on set pieces, like they almost scored off

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Speaker 1: a one in the beginning of the match against Leicester.

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Speaker 1: They're second and next cheaper set piece Cities fifteenth and

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Speaker 1: next cheaper set piece allowed, and the City defense not

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Speaker 1: only are they conceding goals. They're allowing one point zero

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Speaker 1: seven expected goals for ninety minutes, which I know doesn't

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Speaker 1: sound like a lot, but when you compare it to

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Speaker 1: what City was two years ago when they were allowing

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Speaker 1: zero point seven to five, like, there's a clear dip

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Speaker 1: in their defensive performance. And what happened, you know last

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Speaker 1: year is their press wasn't good enough, so they started

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Speaker 1: sitting more in a mid block and they stopped just

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Speaker 1: pressing high. Well, now that they don't have Rogery and

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Speaker 1: they don't have that anchor in the middle, they're just like,

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Speaker 1: all right, I guess we're just gonna have to play

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Speaker 1: a little bit more high scoring matches and try and

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Speaker 1: press teams because we just don't have the ball winning anymore.

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Speaker 1: So I like Southampton to score here at plus one

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Speaker 1: oh five. I mean, every team other than Chelsea's scored

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Speaker 1: against City so far, so why not Southampton.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I completely agree, you're right, And no rodri and

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Speaker 3: de Bruyn will affect any eleven in world football obviously,

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Speaker 3: so we have to bear that in mind. That the

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Speaker 3: thing is City are just so good. So I think

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Speaker 3: there's like a reactionary belief is that our City will

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Speaker 3: be fine, Like you know that they're that good, they're

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Speaker 3: not going to need Rodri and Debrin. But it's definitely

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Speaker 3: not the case, and I think we're seeing the fruits

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Speaker 3: of that now. That's still good enough to win Premier

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Speaker 3: League Kames, which really says something. Yeah, but maybe not

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Speaker 3: as convincingly as they were previously. City have conceded in

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Speaker 3: seven of eight of those matches. Like you said, BJ,

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Speaker 3: so how to bet on this one? I put this

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Speaker 3: into the sheet. We've got a sheet where we put

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Speaker 3: our bets. I thought I might be going a little

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Speaker 3: bit crazy, but BJ's selection was already in there, saying

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Speaker 3: Southampton's the school, which which was nice to see City

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Speaker 3: host spot a Prige tonight Wednesday night and then onto

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Speaker 3: a Saturday afternoon kickoff. And they are priced that minus

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Speaker 3: one thousand for both fixtures. So yeah, the question you

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Speaker 3: got to ask yourself how do you approach a game

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Speaker 3: like that? And it has to be on Southampton to

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Speaker 3: score in some way. I've got City to win and

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Speaker 3: both teams to score and that comes out of plus

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Speaker 3: one three seven. I'm not sure if we're going to

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Speaker 3: get a Southampton go but it looks to be the

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Speaker 3: pick of a bunch from the markets and what I

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Speaker 3: think we have to see from Russell Martin that the

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Speaker 3: blueprint is there from both Fulham and Wolves what they've

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Speaker 3: deployed in recent matches to beat Manchester City or to

365
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:42,160
Speaker 3: create ghost scoring opportunities at least against Manchester City. You've

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Speaker 3: got to get the ball forward quickly. You've got to

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Speaker 3: be brave. You've got to commit bodies forward, which is

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Speaker 3: not easy when you're also faced with the possibility of

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Speaker 3: being outnumbered by a city fast break on the back

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Speaker 3: of it. In return for committing those bodies upfield, and

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Speaker 3: above all, you've got to get players running out City

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Speaker 3: backlining and turning them and facing them towards their own goals.

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Speaker 3: So if they do that they will have a chance

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Speaker 3: to score on the weekend. That is just easier said

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Speaker 3: than done. But yeah, says when both teams score plus

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Speaker 3: one pre seven.

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Speaker 4: Bourne myth travels to Villa Park where Acid Villa are as.

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Speaker 4: We record this on Wednesday before the Champions League Wednesday

379
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Speaker 4: matches are sitting top of the table in the league

380
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Speaker 4: face so Uniamori once again has proven to be an

381
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Speaker 4: elite tournament manager. But now he's got a quick turnaround

382
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Speaker 4: as a minus one ten favorite against the Bournemouth side

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Speaker 4: that should be buoyant after their upset against Arsenal Cherries

384
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Speaker 4: plus two eighty draw here is plus two ninety. I

385
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Speaker 4: would lean towards Bourne myth at these prices in the

386
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Speaker 4: situation for Villa, I thought maybe that the number would

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Speaker 4: get a little bit higher, especially after what we saw

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Speaker 4: from Villa in the midweek. Maybe it gets there, but

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Speaker 4: I I think just the Cats obviously out of the

390
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 4: bag with this tournament team, especially after the win over Arsenal,

391
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Speaker 4: So those two market forces are kind of canceling each

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Speaker 4: other out.

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Speaker 5: But nonetheless it would be born with here for me,

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Speaker 5: BJ I do.

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Speaker 4: Think that they're an intriguing price at plus two eighty

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Speaker 4: on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Bourne with here. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: this type of match is very interesting because you know,

399
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people will just say, well,

400
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 1: Aston Villa has been always been really good at Villa Parks,

401
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 1: so they obviously, you know, have the advantage there. But

402
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 1: when you look through their matches this season at Villa Park,

403
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 1: it's not honestly that great. Like they lost to Arsenal,

404
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 1: they needed to come from behind two goals to beat Everton.

405
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 1: They needed to come from behind against Wolves to beat them.

406
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Speaker 1: They got completely at played by Byron. They put up

407
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,959
Speaker 1: a dud against Manchester United, and then they beat Bologna

408
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 1: in a very boring match like it hasn't been like

409
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Speaker 1: these completely dominant performances from Villa and the one match

410
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Speaker 1: that kind of reigns in my mind because Bournemouth press

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Speaker 1: has been the best of anybody in the Premier League

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Speaker 1: so far. They are turning opponents over in dangerous areas

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Speaker 1: at the highest rate. And what Bournemouth's press does is

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Speaker 1: they try to force you to one side of the pitch,

415
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 1: They use the touch line as an extra defender, and

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00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 1: they cause all sorts of havoc and either turn you

417
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: over or force you to play more direct. Now Villa

418
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: doesn't want to play more direct like they were forced

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Speaker 1: to against Byron, And you know, Johann Durant had a banger.

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00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 1: Other than that, Byron had a pass per defensive action

421
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: of five point eight and forced nine high turnovers against

422
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: Aston Villa, and I think Bournemouth can honestly do the same.

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Speaker 1: So now we're in a situation that you know, like

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Speaker 1: you said, Michael, the price is a little bit short

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Speaker 1: here on Villa. They're obviously pricing in the fact that

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Speaker 1: not only is Bournemouth good, but Villa is on short

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00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: rest after having to play on Tuesday. But I still

428
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Speaker 1: do like the price here on Bournemouth. I have Villa

429
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: at around plus one fifteen, so it's a very very

430
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: small small play for me. But the one thing that

431
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Speaker 1: kept before I, you know, before I decided to make

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Speaker 1: the decision, was that, Okay, Villa is going to play

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Speaker 1: that very compact defensive structure and play the high line,

434
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 1: and the teams that struggle against that are teams that

435
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: want to play out of the back and play a

436
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 1: lot of short passes because there's not any space in

437
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 1: between the lines. The teams that have hurt them, like

438
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: Everton for example, are teams that can play that direct

439
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 1: ball up to the forwards, and that's what Bournemouth does

440
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 1: a lot with Evan Nielsen. So I think there this

441
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 1: is a great matchup for them. I really like them here,

442
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 1: So I like them plus a half minus one or two.

443
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 4: All right, we can move on to Brighton and Wolves next.

444
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 4: The Seagulls are a pretty sizable favorite here minus one

445
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 4: seventy at home Wolves still winless at the foot of

446
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 4: the table on one point plus four to twenty five

447
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 4: of the draw is plus three twenty five here.

448
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 5: I think Wolves are with a bet here, Sam, I it's.

449
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 4: Partly that, like there's the there's no reason that this

450
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 4: team should be on one point like they they are.

451
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 4: They're better than this. We believe in the manager Gary

452
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 4: O'Neil as well, Like this is it's it's a little

453
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 4: bit confounding. The numbers aren't great for Wolverhampton, Like it's

454
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 4: not I'm not saying like they're they've got like some

455
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 4: positive expected goal difference or anything like that, but that

456
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 4: when you look at their underlying numbers, it does suggest

457
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 4: that there is something, uh, there's something coming for them

458
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 4: that they deserve better. And also like the stretch of

459
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 4: games that they played, it is just brutal Arsenal Chelsea Forrest,

460
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 4: who we now know is pretty uh competent team, Newcastle Villa, Liverpool,

461
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 4: Brentford City, Like it's just been a murderer's row for

462
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 4: a team to start the season. And I know Brighton's

463
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 4: pretty good, so you can add another tough opponent to

464
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 4: that to that list, but I do think they're gettable Brighton.

465
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 4: They've had ups and downs in the Hurtzler era. They've

466
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 4: only lost one match, but I do think like Wolves

467
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 4: is a little has a little bit more teeth to

468
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 4: it then than these adds would imply. And it's not

469
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 4: like this Brighton defense is like pitching shoutout after shutout

470
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,719
Speaker 4: after shut out, So gimme Wolves.

471
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, the scheduling's disgusting really from a Wolve's point of view.

472
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 3: I don't know if it was like a Birmingham City

473
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: fan that knocked up the fixtures in the summer, but

474
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 3: it definitely feels like it. We've seen Wolves, They've shown

475
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,239
Speaker 3: in flashes that they're still a good team regardless of

476
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 3: how their season has turned out, dangerous up top on

477
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: occasions last and looks like a good addition. Obviously, Kunya

478
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 3: still knocking about. He's a very good footballer at this level.

479
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 3: I saw a start actually just before coming on. Wolves

480
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 3: have lost their last five Premier League matches, but I've

481
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: scored in each match and there hasn't been a six

482
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 3: game run like that since the sixties. So there's history

483
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 3: on the line here as well, and I wouldn't be

484
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 3: surprised if appenings again because Brighton at home.

485
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 2: There are a team.

486
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 3: The way things are going, four wise, you'd back Brighton

487
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 3: to probably get one over on Wolves, and I just

488
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 3: feel that I don't have a bet and it's on passing.

489
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 3: I just feel that Wolves will click back into a

490
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 3: run soon enough. We know they've got favorable fixtures coming

491
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 3: up from next weekend. I just don't want to risk

492
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 3: back in them that this will be the game they

493
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 3: do it. I don't want to risk that against Brighton

494
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 3: at home, and I don't really want to take Brighton

495
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 3: on the nose at minus one sixty seven either, And

496
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 3: it's another three point zero go line, which is the

497
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: standard in this division now. So overall it's a pass

498
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: from me. But I am hoping they either get a

499
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: result this weekend or next weekend is when they really

500
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 3: start picking up points.

501
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: Wolves is about minus one fifty ish in that range

502
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: to stay up right now, So if they lose this match,

503
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: you might get down into the minus one thirty minus

504
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: one twenty five range, and I would definitely hit that

505
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: at that point, because yeah, you mentioned the schedule, here's

506
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: what they got coming up up until Boxing day. Bright

507
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: or excuse me, Crystal Palace, Southampton Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, west Ham, Ipswich, Leicester,

508
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: Manchester United. Like they've played all their hard They've played

509
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: all their hard matches so far, so if they can

510
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: pick up even two or three wins in that type

511
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 1: of stretch, they're gonna fly up the table and they're

512
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 1: gonna be sitting in fourteenth place by the time we

513
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 1: reach the new year. So I think the way to

514
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: play it is if they lose this match and you

515
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: can get anything under minus one fifty for Wolves to

516
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: stay up. I know the underlying metrics have not been good,

517
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: but they're a way more talented team than some of

518
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 1: the teams near the bottom of the table, So I

519
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 1: think that's the way to play Wolves.

520
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 4: Brighton and ipswitch up next. Excuse Brentford and I switch

521
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 4: up next. Brentford minus won forty five at home, ipswitch

522
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 4: traveling plus three sixty. The draw is plus three twenty.

523
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 4: Pretty hefty price. You got to play here on Brentford, Sam,

524
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 4: but you're not. It's not going to deter you.

525
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 3: Thinks a pretty good price. Yeah, I don't ready mind

526
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 3: it off. Going for Bread minus zero point seven Asian

527
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 3: at minus one ten, just to get a little bit

528
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 3: more juice in the price and because I think there

529
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: probably will be goals here at the g Tech. On

530
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 3: the weekend against United, they went ahead Brentford from that

531
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 3: pinnock head a whilst the litt was off the pitch,

532
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 3: cracking header from a good corner. But they did really

533
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 3: struggle in the second half and they only mustered two

534
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: attempts at goal and zero point won six xg in

535
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: that second half, even though they were trailing from the

536
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 3: hour mark. But I think if that was at the

537
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 3: g Tech and I'd a lot of ifs and butts,

538
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 3: But if that was at home, I think that game

539
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 3: would turn out a little differently because they are much

540
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 3: better at home. They're much more comfortable, they score lots

541
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 3: of goals at home. And Brentford have actually lost all

542
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: four Premier League away games so far. It's only them

543
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 3: in Southampton are the two teams with zero points after

544
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 3: four games on the road.

545
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: But at home after just.

546
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 3: Beating Wolves five to three or four mit go, Brentford

547
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: actually have ten points from four games, which is second

548
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 3: to only Arsenal on go difference. If we were to

549
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 3: take home free she was only into accounts, so it's

550
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,360
Speaker 3: night and day in that respect and I just think

551
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 3: they'll have too much for Ipswich. You saw Everton out

552
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 3: fox Kieran McKenna's men on the weekend and it looked

553
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 3: very much like you had a plucky, promoted Premier League

554
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 3: club in one corner versus like a battle hard and

555
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 3: been through the ring of know the old dance type

556
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 3: of Premier League club in the other and they.

557
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: Took their chances.

558
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 3: Everton won the midfield battle and there was just a

559
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: touch more quality overall in the away dressing room. So

560
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: I feel looking ahead to this game, I feel like

561
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 3: that is how it might play out again here with

562
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 3: Brentford loving life in front of their own fans, Brentford

563
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 3: at minus one for three at home on the weekend.

564
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 3: Like it might be a bit short for the podcast,

565
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 3: but I think it's an all right price that Asian

566
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 3: lines where I've ended up. So yeah, if you think

567
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 3: there's going to be goals and you think Brentford will

568
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: wedg in front that that Asian lines, it's a pretty

569
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 3: good way and I.

570
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: Think I agree, and I have a staff for you

571
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: kind of go on along lines what you've said Sam

572
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 1: about Brentford at home. So typically what Brentford does in

573
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: these type of scenarios is you know, Brentford is typically

574
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: under Thomas Frank a five three five to two direct

575
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: counter attacking team, but when they face teams where they

576
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: think they can control possession, they'll switch to a four

577
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: to three to three, they'll bring on an extra attacker.

578
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: And they've been really, really good against teams in the AGA,

579
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: against worse off teams than them. So since the start

580
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty two to twenty three season, Brentford

581
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: against teams in the bottom half the table are thirteen

582
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: eight and two and they have a plus sixteen point

583
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: one expect a goal differential. They are so good at

584
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: home against these bad teams in the bottom half of

585
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: the table and if Switch fits that mold very very well.

586
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: Brentford beat all three newly promoted teams at home last season.

587
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: They created over three expected goals against Loutontown and against Burnley.

588
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 1: And it's just the same story every week with Ipswitchtown,

589
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: like they're just not that good. They're trying to play

590
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: the way they did in the Championship. And you even

591
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: saw it. Everton created their biggest chance the match. I

592
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 1: know Calvert Lowin didn't score it, but they turned him

593
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: over high and they got a quick counter attacking opportunity.

594
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: And Brentford has shown many times this season that they

595
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 1: are a team that wants to press high now and

596
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: cause a lot of problems. If you don't believe me,

597
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: go watch the Southampton match because they did that over

598
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: and over and over again. So for Ipswich, who, by

599
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: the way, have conceded over seventeen expected goals and seventeen

600
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: big big scoring chances in only eight matches and are

601
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 1: pretty bad at defending set pieces as well. Fourteenth to

602
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: next super set piece and conceded a goal to Everton

603
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: off the direct result of a set piece like this

604
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: is a horrible match for them. So I have Brentford

605
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 1: projected north of minus two hundred, so I think this

606
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: is a slam spot here for Brentford. I think that

607
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 1: they're set up really, really well to get all three

608
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: points in this match.

609
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 6: Shout out two our Action Network colleague Sean Zarillo, who

610
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 6: had another great year in baseball, finishing the MLB regular

611
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 6: season up more than twenty five units. And with Action

612
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 6: Pro you get instant notifications every time Zarillo or any

613
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 6: of our Action experts make a pick in the Action app.

614
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 6: Just visit actionnetwork dot com slash Pro and use the

615
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 6: promo code October for fifteen percent off an action Pro subscription.

616
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Speaker 6: That's fifteen percent off at actionnetwork dot com slash Pro

617
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 6: with the promo code October, and be sure to check

618
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 6: out Sean every week talking MLB playoffs.

619
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: On the Payoff Pitch podcast.

620
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 5: Okay, that brings us to Everden and Fulham. The Marco

621
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 5: Silva Darby Everden.

622
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: It's basically a pick them on the three way line.

623
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 4: Everything's plus one seventy, so a slight slight home underdog

624
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 4: Follham plus one sixty. The draw here is plus two thirty.

625
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 4: We're talking about Arsenal Liverpool perhaps being underwhelming just in

626
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 4: terms of like from a watching perspective, I think this

627
00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 4: match has a lot of potential to be maybe the

628
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 4: most exciting on the board in terms of like goals

629
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 4: and scoring chances. Sam I do think that both of

630
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 4: these teams will give a real go everything should be

631
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 4: feeling much better about themselves going into the weekend after

632
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 4: the winning whipswich. They played a lot better of late.

633
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 4: We kind of saw this coming, but in Folhow have

634
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 4: been just really just competitive every time they step onto

635
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 4: the pitch, so you're looking at goals. I think that's

636
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 4: probably the right way to play it here.

637
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you, but so I'm glad you

638
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: said that. But the boot Makers they have this over

639
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: two under two point five goal line which is the

640
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 3: smallest in the Premier League this weekend and both teams

641
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: are scorers up minus one for three, so I didn't

642
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: really get that over two point five at minus ten,

643
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 3: so that was a bit confusing. So it was a

644
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 3: standout for me and Everton, Like you said, they've got

645
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 3: their show on the road this season after what was

646
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: a tricky start to the campaign. Eight points in their

647
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: last four games, two wins coming in that time against

648
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: Pallace at home ipswich away and only once have Everton

649
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 3: gone five games unbeaten under Sean Dye, so they'll be

650
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: quietly confident they can match that here. Although Fulham is

651
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: a difficult test at present, been paying brilliantly and we've

652
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 3: been bigging them up on the podcast most weeks. I

653
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 3: feel like I need to bring up that first Fulham

654
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: goal from assists from the keep away. It's just punted

655
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 3: it over, but it's high line like Route one. Proper

656
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 3: football you'll see that at Sunday League level in England

657
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 3: up and down the country this weekend.

658
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,479
Speaker 2: I just love that. We need to see more of that.

659
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 2: I think.

660
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 3: So that was actually then assist that season, join Edison

661
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 3: as the only two keepers to have one assist this season.

662
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 2: So that's a bit of fun.

663
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 3: I don't feel comfortable taken on either side in terms

664
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 3: of result. I can see this game swinging back and

665
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 3: forth and three points really could end up on either side.

666
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: We could make a good case for both teams finding

667
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 3: some joy.

668
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 2: I think.

669
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 3: So that's why I've ended up on the other two

670
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 3: point five, right near the bottom of the Premier League

671
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: for underline attacking figures with eight point seven three x G.

672
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 3: But it feels like the tide is turning and if

673
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: they go behind, even if they go in front, I

674
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 3: really can see a response from both Everton and Fulham

675
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 3: depending which way the first go goes, and this could Yeah,

676
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 3: this could rumble into something pretty exciting.

677
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:24,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Yeah, the Marco Silva Darby, this should

678
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun. You know, last season these

679
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: two teams played twice in the Premier leion once in

680
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: the I think it was League Cup, FA Cup I

681
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 1: can't rememberich one, but the two Premier League matches there

682
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: was only one total goal between the two, but there

683
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: were seven point seven expected goals, so there were chances

684
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 1: left and right. And Sam, I'm so happy to hear

685
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 1: you say that we need more root one football because

686
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: we truly do. We do. We talk about the game

687
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: being gone. It's gone because we don't have root one football, right.

688
00:34:55,680 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 1: But you know, Fulham have shown that not only can

689
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 1: they be a team that can actually play out of

690
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 1: the back, but like he said, Sam, they can play

691
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 1: root one football as well. And I think root one

692
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: football is what they're going to kind of have to

693
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 1: do here against Everton, or do what they do best,

694
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 1: which is get overloads in wide areas, two v ones,

695
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: over and underlapping runs out wide, because Everton have conceded

696
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: the most crosses of anybody into the penalty area so

697
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: far and Fulham have completed the most. I think the

698
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 1: reason why you're seeing that, Michael, is because Branthwaite has

699
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: been out. He's their best aerial defender by far, and

700
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 1: Michael Keane just isn't at this point in his career

701
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,919
Speaker 1: branth which is questionable and it sounds like they're kind

702
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: of holding him back a little bit because he reinjured

703
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: himself when they brought him in against Crystal Palace, so

704
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: they're kind of taking it a little bit slow. So

705
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 1: I honestly be kind of surprised if you see Branthwaite

706
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 1: actually start in this match. But in any case, the

707
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: Everton defense, they've put up good defensive performances against teams

708
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 1: like if switched Lester in Crystal Palace, but against everybody

709
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 1: else they're conceding over to expected goals per ninety minutes.

710
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 1: And it's just because again, like I said, they just

711
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: can't defend crosses. Now, for Fulham's perspective, Sasa Lucic is out.

712
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: He's their best ball winning midfielder. Like you know, they

713
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: start Smith, Row and Pereira and now they're going to

714
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 1: start Sandra Berger, who is not a great ball winner

715
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: in terms of stopping people in transition. If you don't

716
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 1: believe me, he was the main guy in the middle

717
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 1: for Burnley last season and how did that end up?

718
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: They were one of the worst defensive teams in the

719
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: Premier League. So I agree with you, Sam, I like

720
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: over two and a half here, I think that this

721
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 1: game is going to be very back and forth, very transitional,

722
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: which typically when these two you know, when these type

723
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: of matches happen and two teams want to play very direct,

724
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: more often than not, it ends up in a high

725
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 1: scoring match than a low scoring So I'm with you, Sam,

726
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: like over two and a half.

727
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 4: A lot of love for yeah Route one football, And

728
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 4: of course we had a Chris Wood mention, so we're

729
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 4: we are proper barclays men here, which brings us to

730
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 4: Chelsea and Newcastle. Chelsea mights want twenty five at home.

731
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 4: Newcastle traveling at plus to ninety to draw here is

732
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 4: plus three ten. Not too much for me here, Bjay,

733
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 4: And that's one. I think it looks about right.

734
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've decided to have some fun here. I think

735
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: I like over three and a half at plus one

736
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: twenty three.

737
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 2: So what is you know?

738
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 1: Newcastle has been They've been interesting this season, right because

739
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 1: I think we all kind of expected this ascension up

740
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: into battling for the top four and that just hasn't

741
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:30,720
Speaker 1: happened yet. And I thought they were really good against Brighton.

742
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: They were completely dominating them for the first thirty five

743
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: minutes and then I love it. The announcer said, once

744
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,760
Speaker 1: Danny Welback got the goal, I said, well that's football.

745
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: Brighton's first attack they score after Newcastle had just hammered

746
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 1: their net over and over and over again. And it's

747
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 1: true because Newcastle is trying to become a team that

748
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: can control matches more. They're trying to build out of

749
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: the back more. And Newcastle finally has their peak midfield

750
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 1: Joe Linton, Gemerish and Sandra Tanali, so I think they

751
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: feel that they can actually build out of the back

752
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 1: a little bit more. But in this type of match

753
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: it would behoove them and it would be much better

754
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: for them to play very, very direct because you saw

755
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: Liverpool have a lot of success against Chelsea by playing

756
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: those direct balls because Chelsea wants to go man to

757
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 1: man across the pitch. So either one of two things

758
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 1: are going to happen. Either Newcastle, I think, is going

759
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: to try to build out of the back and they're

760
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 1: going to turn it over to Chelsea, who has been

761
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: a good high pressing team, or they're going to be

762
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 1: able to be very good with those type of direct

763
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: balls up to the forwards. So the flip side of

764
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 1: it though, is is you know, Chelsea has been very

765
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: good offensively this season, and especially being at home and

766
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: Newcastle has not been good away from home for a

767
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: very long time now, and defending in that four or

768
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: five one, I mean, Newcastle's gotta press Chelsea. They got

769
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 1: to come out and they got to they got to

770
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: take the game to them. Which if they sit in

771
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 1: that four or five one and Chelsea's able to overload

772
00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: them and Palmer is able to find space in between

773
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: the lines like they're they're in big time trouble. So

774
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 1: I thought, let's have some fun over three and a

775
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 1: half at plus one twenty three. I probably wouldn't play it,

776
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: you know, anything short of plus one fifteen because it

777
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 1: does make me a little nervous, you know, with these

778
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: two teams playing a little bit more low event type matches.

779
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: But Newcast is also way way overdue to score five

780
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 1: point six expected goals in their last three matches they

781
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 1: only scored once. So over three and a half at

782
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 1: plus one twenty.

783
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 5: Three, anything here stand before we move on.

784
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad Bjay's having a bit of funk. So

785
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 3: I've just got a few bullet points in front of

786
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 3: me saying I'm going to pass. I'm not sure on

787
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: either team, et cetera, et cetera. I do have a

788
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 3: start though, which is fairly interesting, which is Chelsea are

789
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 3: the only team in Premier League history to get eight

790
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 3: games into a season without using anyone over the age

791
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty seven, which which, yeah, which is.

792
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 1: What they wanted to feel a little bit they wanted.

793
00:39:56,400 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there we go. No bets, but I've got starts. Fair.

794
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 4: I appreciate that you do have a bet in this

795
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,399
Speaker 4: next one with Palace still win lists. Palace is plus

796
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 4: three hundred at home. Spurs manus one twenty five to

797
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 4: draw here is plus two ninety five. I'm very tempted

798
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 4: by Crystal Palace here because I want to buy low

799
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 4: on this team, and I know that that opportunity is

800
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 4: not going to come next week against Wolves. I think

801
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 4: that's going to be a really tricky when a handicapped

802
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 4: and then it's Fulham. This looks like a decent spot

803
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 4: to bet them at home against a gettable defense, but

804
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 4: a team that can also just run you off the

805
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 4: park on their day. I can't get there, but you

806
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 4: do have a bet here playing into it being a

807
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 4: fun one to watch.

808
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so this is a tough one. For me,

809
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: I'm also fairly confident that Palace comes good. I'm a

810
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 3: confident enough to back a Palace win. No similar to you,

811
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 3: but I am confident enough that they're going to give

812
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: it absolutely everything and have enough to get on the

813
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 3: score sheet at home against a leaky Spur SID saying

814
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 3: that they've only scored I think it's five goals in

815
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 3: this season, which is the lowest, the lowest total of

816
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 3: all twenty clubs. So that's a concern with over two

817
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 3: point five goals and both teams to score at minus

818
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 3: one twenty. But I'm gonna go for it because in

819
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: the other corner in Tottenham we've got last game on

820
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 3: the weekend, Son, Selanki and Johnson up top, with Madison

821
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 3: and Kuduseski just in behind like drifting in centrally and

822
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 3: out wide. It's such a good attacking set up. You

823
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 3: got Kurdissesse cutting in from the left and now hunging

824
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 3: Son over on the on the left instead of Timoverno,

825
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 3: which is just a massive upgrade. And he's so clinical

826
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 3: in like the you know, the most important of moments

827
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 3: and it makes me, it makes me feel a little

828
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 3: bit more comfortable in terms of back in Tottenham. So

829
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 3: I was looking at the minus one twenty price on

830
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 3: Tottenham just to win. But the more I thought about it,

831
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 3: the more it felt a little bit trappy. And I've

832
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 3: been burned by Tottenham so many times in the past

833
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 3: that I just thought, maybe it makes more sense just

834
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 3: signing with goals, because we know Tottenham's going to score.

835
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 3: Pretty sure Tottenham's going to score, and we know going

836
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 3: backwards towards your own go they are not watertight. So

837
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 3: I've ended up on both teams scoring over two point

838
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 3: five goals. What would say is maybe maybe like a

839
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 3: player proper around Sun to score or sunshots on target,

840
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: because like I said, he add so much to this

841
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 3: first side, really clinical captain, leader on the pitch, like

842
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 3: lifts the standards of those around him, and he showed

843
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 3: that against west Ham. So if you're looking for something

844
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 3: a little bit different, maybe Son in the prop markets

845
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 3: all right?

846
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 4: And finally that brings us to west Ham and Manchester United.

847
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 4: West Ham plus one eighty five at home United plus

848
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 4: one forty. The draw here is plus two fifty. I

849
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 4: don't think we'll be alone and seeing this match this way, BJ,

850
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,280
Speaker 4: but all three of us are going to back something

851
00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 4: that is conducive to a lot of scoring, a lot

852
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 4: of and maybe some poor defense from these two teams

853
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:04,280
Speaker 4: which we never see.

854
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like what you put in the sheet, Michael,

855
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,479
Speaker 1: a million goals because that's how I feel as well.

856
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 1: I mean United continually week after week. Listen, they were

857
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 1: good in the second half against Brentford. My goodness. Their

858
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: their press still sucks. I think it really does. Like

859
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: they it's not it's not connected, you know, if they

860
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: really wanted to just go full boor go full man

861
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: to man, but I think ten Honk just continually overthinks it.

862
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: And they did go man to man in the second

863
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 1: half against Brentford when they fell behind, and they were

864
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: actually really really successful. And if they do that here

865
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 1: against west Ham, like they will turn west Ham over,

866
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 1: who's still trying to build out of the back. But

867
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 1: what also happened in that first half, and I kind

868
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:49,240
Speaker 1: of laughed as I was watching the match, is United

869
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,439
Speaker 1: reverted back to their old ways, because if you remember

870
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: towards the end of last season, it was just, you know,

871
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: we can't control matches, so we're just gonna get in

872
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 1: a back and forth encounter with whoever. It doesn't matter

873
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: and they were doing that with Brentford and it wasn't working.

874
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: And who's to say that doesn't happen here against west

875
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:11,399
Speaker 1: Ham if their press isn't good enough, or if they

876
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 1: believe they can hit west Ham in transition because west

877
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: Ham has allowed the most transition shots by like a wide,

878
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: wide margin, of anybody in the Premier League. They are

879
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 1: so bad at defending in transition, so I wouldn't be

880
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: surprised if United decides to do that in this match.

881
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: On the other end of the spectrum, you know, no

882
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: Kudus for west Ham, but they brought in Somerville over

883
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 1: the summer, who, I think Sam will agree with me,

884
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 1: was probably the best winger in the Championship last year,

885
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,479
Speaker 1: so the drop off from Kudus to him really isn't

886
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: as far as it would have been in previous seasons

887
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: for west Ham. So they have a ton going forward

888
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 1: here in their attack to really rip United apart, who

889
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: has kind of overperformed defensively eight goals loud off of

890
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: eleven expected, and Sam mentioned on our last podcast, but

891
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 1: United has drastically underperformed offensively this season. They're at seven

892
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 1: goals of about thirteen expected, so you would expect that

893
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: positive aggression to come and what better team to come

894
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 1: against and one of the worst defensive teams in the

895
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 1: league in west Ham. So yeah, over three at minus

896
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,959
Speaker 1: one ten for me, I projected three point seven goals

897
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 1: for this match, so hopefully there's a ton of goals.

898
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 3: Both teams to score over two point five goals for

899
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:22,760
Speaker 3: me at minus one three nine, but could have easily

900
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 3: taken that aging goal. Like BJ, I'm probably gonna rinse

901
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 3: and repeat what I said last week. West Ham good

902
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,760
Speaker 3: in attack, west Ham bad in defense, goes.

903
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 2: At either ends.

904
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 3: You would imagine United potentially back in a go scoring rhythm,

905
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 3: maybe got Hoiland back in the team first league go

906
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 3: with the season. And for that for US goal, you

907
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 3: see Fernandez is flick around the corner, which was exceptional

908
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 3: really and Hoyland's finish was just as impressive. So very

909
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 3: very good winner for United. And we do our first

910
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 3: share of putting ten hags United down, so I thought

911
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 3: I'd pay them a little credit. Rashford looked bright against Brentford,

912
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 3: excellent assist, good signs for United. Like I said, Hoyland

913
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 3: really added something on his return and Gonactua was super

914
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 3: effective off the left as well, So definitely a few

915
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 3: positives on the weekend and west Ham and goes at home.

916
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 3: I think we should just keep backing it until we

917
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 3: see a reason not to. Four out of four games

918
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 3: have gone over two point five goals at the London Stadium,

919
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,919
Speaker 3: and five out of eight have gone over two point

920
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 3: five goals overall in the Premier League. So three goals

921
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 3: for BJ's pick will get you a push on the

922
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 3: Asian line, and maybe three goals will get us a

923
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 3: win if they're shared out evenly with both teams to

924
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 3: score and over two point five goals. But yeah, there's

925
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 3: a few ways of playing it. I would expect that

926
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 3: to be goals on the weekend.

927
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 4: Okay, before we get to our underdog parlay, we'll take

928
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 4: a quick johnt around Europe with BJ. The headliner is

929
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 4: out Classical, but there's a pretty big matches Seria as well.

930
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 5: What do you got for us?

931
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll start with all classical because I kind of

932
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: like over three and a half you can get it.

933
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: A plus one thirty five is the highest price. I

934
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: mean that real Madrid Dormn match was hilarious on Tuesday.

935
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: It was so good, It was so perfect and what

936
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: you saw Real Madrid do over and over again is

937
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 1: what they can do to Barcelona. Now we are recording

938
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: this for Barcelona plays Bayern Munich, which I think is

939
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: a very very important match and a good register for

940
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: what Barcelona is right now, because like we said in

941
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: our Champions League podcast, Barcelona hasn't played anybody near the

942
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 1: level of Bayern Munich or Real Madrid yet. But what

943
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: they were able to do is they did, you know,

944
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:36,360
Speaker 1: over the top balls out wide to the wingers. They

945
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 1: did to Vinetius Junior over and over and over again,

946
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,720
Speaker 1: and he just got into one B one situations. Because

947
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:45,240
Speaker 1: Barcelona wants to overload the middle sometimes with eight guys,

948
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 1: they just leave the wide areas completely exposed. So and

949
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 1: that's just, you know, that's a risk versus reward thing

950
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: that hanse Flick just lives with because they're so good

951
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: offensively when they have that overload. But against a team

952
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: like Real Madrid, I don't think that's going to work.

953
00:47:59,800 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 2: Now.

954
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 1: Real Madrid has shown their vulnerabilities defensively and I think

955
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 1: that you know, especially with those crosses from out wide

956
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 1: and the you know, the wingers that Barcelona has, with

957
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 1: the Rathenia and La Migna mal, I think it's just

958
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:13,439
Speaker 1: going to be chaos. And I think once you see

959
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 1: that first goal go in, similar to the Dortmund match,

960
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 1: just everything just gets thrown out the window and it

961
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: just becomes very very back and forth. So I like

962
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 1: over three and a half in all Classico. Another huge

963
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:28,760
Speaker 1: match in Serria I enter Juventus. Uventus was horrible against

964
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:33,399
Speaker 1: stut Guard. Bad call by us Michael on Tuesday. And

965
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 1: the thing is is, you know, Nico Gonzalez Coop Miners

966
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 1: are both out now for Juventus along with Bremers, so

967
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 1: they're a little bit limited in terms of their best

968
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 1: players actually being available. But that was just the what

969
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: second goal that they have, our third goal that they

970
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,520
Speaker 1: have allowed from open play in eleven v eleven situations

971
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: this season. They still have not allowed a non metal

972
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 1: league goal in Syria A, which is just hilarious and

973
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: crazy to think about. And who's to say they don't

974
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 1: just sit in here against Inter and just dare enter

975
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 1: to break them down. Under two and a half is

976
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 1: said at like minus one fifty, like minus one sixty

977
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: in that range both teams. Scornell is sitting at minus

978
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 1: one ten and I wouldn't be shocked if this match

979
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 1: ends one nothing either way, so both teams of Gornell

980
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 1: and that one. And then finally in Germany Frankfurt John

981
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: o'bett plus one oh three at Unjan Berlin. Frankfurt has

982
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: been actually pretty good this season. They have a positive

983
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 1: expected gold to rent differential. Their last two matches they've played,

984
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 1: they drew Bayern and then they got outplayed by Leverkusen.

985
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: But in matches not against Dortman, Leverkusen or Byron, they

986
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: have completely dominated everybody else in the Bundesliga. And I think,

987
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: you know, Michael, we have an old friend managing Unyan

988
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 1: Bilin right now, bose Fenson is managing them, and I

989
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,399
Speaker 1: think they're in the wrong league because their matches are

990
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 1: averaging one point seven non penalty expected goals per ninety.

991
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 1: I think they belong in La Ligue or Siria right now.

992
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 1: They don't belong in the Bundesliga. But in any case,

993
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 1: they've been pretty poor when they've had to, you know,

994
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: step up and competition. This is not the billing team

995
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: of a couple of years ago that finished in the

996
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 1: top four. So I like Frankford on the road. I

997
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: think they should be favored side them drawn a better

998
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 1: plus one or three.

999
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 4: All right, nothing from us in the lower leagues, just

1000
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 4: locking our wounds from Plymouth Argyle getting.

1001
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do have a bet if you want me

1002
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 3: to quickly go over it. Oh yeah yeah, So as

1003
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 3: you're going through Europe, I just realized that I didn't

1004
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 3: have a bet ready for the pod in the Championship,

1005
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,839
Speaker 3: which is literally my only job each week, so very

1006
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 3: unprofessional of me.

1007
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 2: But luckily I know that Sheffild.

1008
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 3: United are at home and you can back them at

1009
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,320
Speaker 3: minus one twenty against Stoke, which I'm fine with. Sheffild

1010
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:47,280
Speaker 3: United very very stingy in terms of defensive XGA. Don't

1011
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 3: have the numbers in front of me for obvious reasons,

1012
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 3: but they are very good defensively and they've got real

1013
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 3: quality up top at this level too. Stoke City have

1014
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,319
Speaker 3: looked open in recent fixtures on the new management, and

1015
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,880
Speaker 3: that continued against Bristol City last night. They two ahead

1016
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 3: and then conceded two to draw. If you let two

1017
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 3: goes in against Sheffield United, then you are banging trouble

1018
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 3: and you might not be able to overturn that deficit.

1019
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 3: So Sheffild julyighted moneyline minus one twenty perfect.

1020
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 5: That brings us to the underdog. Probably this one is

1021
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:19,760
Speaker 5: going to come out too about sixty four to one. Sam,

1022
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 5: you can get us started.

1023
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 2: Brentford win.

1024
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 3: I'm both team to score plus two two five. I

1025
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 3: feel Brentford will have too much for Ipswich at home.

1026
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 3: Struggled at Old Trafford last time out, but it has

1027
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,320
Speaker 3: been night and day in terms of home and away form.

1028
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,720
Speaker 3: Brentford a second behind Arsenal with ten points from four games.

1029
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 3: If we look at the Premier League home form table,

1030
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 3: away from home, they're nineteenth with four losses from four.

1031
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 3: So now back on home soil, confident playing on their

1032
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 3: own patch. I think we might see a gulf between

1033
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:49,760
Speaker 3: these sides in terms of going forward and creating chances

1034
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 3: at this level. Only six point three one actually created

1035
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 3: by Ipswich from eight Premier League games. That is the

1036
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 3: worst in the division. And that's why we can get

1037
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 3: this pick in the elms of an underdog pick price wise.

1038
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 3: So Brentford, Yeah, they've conceded fifteen goals in eight games,

1039
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:08,359
Speaker 3: so they're not exactly what a tight iither Brentford winning

1040
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 3: both teams to score.

1041
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Wolverhampton as a plus four to

1042
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:17,319
Speaker 4: twenty five underdog against Brighton on the road. Wolves have

1043
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:21,239
Speaker 4: lost five on the spin. It hasn't been pretty for

1044
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 4: them to start the season there at the bottom of

1045
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 4: the Prei League table with just one point. But here's

1046
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,840
Speaker 4: a list of their opponents so far Arsenal, Chelsea, Nodding

1047
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 4: of Forest, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Brentford and Manchester City.

1048
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 4: So we really just don't know anything about this Wolves

1049
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 4: team eight matches into the season. I do expect them

1050
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 4: to start to climb their way towards the top of

1051
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 4: the table, and we do know that the bright this

1052
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 4: Brighton side. Yeah they've got plenty of potential they could

1053
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 4: beat anybody on their today, but they also have the

1054
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 4: potential of giving up plenty of scoring chances. We saw

1055
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,439
Speaker 4: that last week when they gave up nearly two xg

1056
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 4: to Newcastle. They've gave up four goals to Chelsea a

1057
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago. So this is this is a

1058
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,760
Speaker 4: gettable dee. I think a spot that Wolves will have circle.

1059
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 4: There's a potential opportunity to claw their way out of

1060
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 4: the basement of the Premier League, and I like the

1061
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 4: price on a team that will be just naturally undervalued

1062
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 4: by the way they started the season. So give me

1063
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 4: Wolverhampton DJ.

1064
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Bournemouth plus two eighty on the road

1065
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:17,719
Speaker 1: against aston Villa. Honestly a pretty good match up here

1066
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:20,239
Speaker 1: for Bournemouth, who has been the best pressing team in

1067
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 1: the Premier League. They're forcing opponents to turn the ball

1068
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 1: over in dangerous areas at the highest rate of anybody

1069
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 1: in the league so far. In aston Villa, the one

1070
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: match that they have played against an elite pressing team

1071
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 1: was Bayern Munich and Byron Munich in that match had

1072
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: a pass per defensive action of five point eight and

1073
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: turn aston Villa over high nine times and basically neutralized

1074
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 1: aston Villa's build up and forced them to play very,

1075
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 1: very direct And the one thing about aston Villa's defense,

1076
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 1: because they play that high line, teams that are able

1077
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 1: to play direct balls over the top have caused them

1078
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 1: a lot of problems. That's how Fulham scored their first

1079
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 1: goal over the weekend against aston Villa, and Bournemouth does

1080
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 1: that over and over again with Evan Nielsen. So I

1081
00:53:58,040 --> 00:53:59,760
Speaker 1: think this is a great match up here for Bournemouth

1082
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 1: on the right, and I like the price of them

1083
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:01,919
Speaker 1: at plus two to eighty.

1084
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 4: Like I said sixty four to one on that one

1085
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 4: to come good. I bring us to our favorite bets

1086
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 4: in the Premier League this weekend, BJ you could get

1087
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 4: us started.

1088
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:15,759
Speaker 1: Brentford minus one forty at home against Ipswich. Brentford is

1089
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 1: so good in these type of situations. They typically play

1090
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 1: out of three to five to two when they're underdogs,

1091
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 1: but when they're favored and they think they can control possession,

1092
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 1: they will switch to a four to three three and

1093
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 1: play more attacking football and it's paid off. Since the

1094
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,320
Speaker 1: start of the twenty twenty two to twenty three season,

1095
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,720
Speaker 1: Brentford is thirteen eight and two at home against teams

1096
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 1: in the bottom half of the table and have a

1097
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 1: plus sixteen point one expected goal differential. It's the same

1098
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 1: story every single week with Ipswich Town. They're just a horrible,

1099
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,279
Speaker 1: horrible Premier League team. They're continually trying to build out

1100
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 1: of the back and they either turn the ball over

1101
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 1: or they're not be able to create anything offensively. They

1102
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 1: have the lowest amount of expected goals and have conceded

1103
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 1: the most expected goals in the Premier League. That's not

1104
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 1: where you want to be as a team trying to

1105
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: fight off relegations. I have Brentford projected north of minus

1106
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:04,759
Speaker 1: two hundred, so I think there's a lot of value

1107
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:05,840
Speaker 1: on them at minus one forty.

1108
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Donning of forst plus one fifty five.

1109
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 4: I know the schedule spot's a little tough after playing

1110
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 4: on Monday now quick turnaround to play Friday on the

1111
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 4: road in Leicester, but I do just trust that this

1112
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:18,919
Speaker 4: Forest team is a professional outfit right at this point,

1113
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 4: and they're much better than Leicester City. Leicester is defensively

1114
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:27,280
Speaker 4: their SIEV. They've given up twenty one expected goals against

1115
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 4: on the season depending on where you look, and that

1116
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 4: is bottom of the Premier League table. And it just

1117
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 4: doesn't take all that much for Nining a force to win.

1118
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 4: They can get one or two on the board. They

1119
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 4: should be able to see this one out. I know

1120
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 4: that Lester's been a lot pluckier than we expected to

1121
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 4: start the season, but I think they'll need a little

1122
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 4: bit more than that to beat this really really robust

1123
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 4: Ninning of fours side. I'm going to back them to

1124
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 4: continue there really strong start to the season.

1125
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,279
Speaker 3: Sam, Yes, so I'm going ever earn verse Fulham over

1126
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 3: two point five goes minus one ten. This is the

1127
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,439
Speaker 3: lowest goal on of the weekend over two point five

1128
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 3: goes on. I'm not sure that's right. We saw a

1129
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 3: one nil and nil nil in the head to heads

1130
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 3: last season which will put people off instantly, But if

1131
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 3: you analyze those two matchups last term involving similar personnel

1132
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:15,240
Speaker 3: our management. We had neil neil last time out in Fulham,

1133
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 3: but there were twenty five Fulham shots to twenty one

1134
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 3: from Everton and three point seven eight accumulated XG overall.

1135
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,240
Speaker 3: And the game before at Goodison one n to Fulham

1136
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 3: on the road with twenty eight match shots and four

1137
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 3: to four point two to three x G accumulated in

1138
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 3: a very kind of transitional heavy game. So these two

1139
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 3: will turn up and both have a right good go

1140
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: I'm sure that we just need them to take their

1141
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:38,800
Speaker 3: chances and land what is a generous goal line in

1142
00:56:38,840 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 3: the Premier League on the weekend.

1143
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 5: Perfect. All right?

1144
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 4: That does it for this match Week nine betting preview

1145
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,319
Speaker 4: for the Premier League and best luck with all your bets.

1146
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 4: We'll be back again next week. We'll continue to do

1147
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:51,800
Speaker 4: our Champions League shows over the weekend.

1148
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 2: As well.

1149
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,439
Speaker 4: Until then, good luck. Thank you to our producer Noah.

1150
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 4: Please rate, review and subscribe. It helps a lot for

1151
00:56:58,120 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 4: Sam and BJM.

1152
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 6: Mist Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1153
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1154
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1155
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:24,120
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