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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen, twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty coty five

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Speaker 1: fifty and the Kick as Black the college Football World stunt,

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Speaker 1: Oh my.

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Speaker 3: Goodness, please stumble, the bumble, the lateral.

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Speaker 2: Turn, A counter on the job.

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Speaker 1: Don't you believe.

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Speaker 2: Came them off the field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the sage of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 1: It's the sage of the fighting in the All.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Colin Wilson,

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Speaker 3: your host for today's very special college football edition of

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Speaker 3: the show. We're going to be talking about twenty nineteen

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Speaker 3: win totals. Great way to kick the summer off with

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Speaker 3: a very special guest, the manager of Trading at Caesars Entertainment,

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Speaker 3: Matt Lindeman. Caesars has just released a full menu of

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Speaker 3: college football teams, the highest limits anywhere. We often talk

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Speaker 3: about getting money down in New Jersey, getting money down

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Speaker 3: in Vegas. This is the highest limits they have. All

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Speaker 3: the power five out group of five is short to come.

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Speaker 3: AAC should be out by the time that you listen

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Speaker 3: to this. I can't wait to get right into this. Matt,

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Speaker 3: thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 1: Hey Colin, Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm excited for

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Speaker 1: the first time all year I've talked about college football,

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Speaker 1: So looking forward.

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Speaker 3: To well, except when I fly out in February and

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Speaker 3: March and I make you talk to me about it,

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Speaker 3: even though we're dead in the middle of college basketball

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Speaker 3: season and all you want to talk about is Kentucky basketball.

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Speaker 3: So with that intro, everybody knows that I went to Arkansas.

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Speaker 3: With that intro, tell us how Matt, the Kentucky alum,

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Speaker 3: got from Kentucky out to Vegas and kind of your

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Speaker 3: brief history.

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Speaker 1: I've been betting on sports since I was a senior

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Speaker 1: in high school. I got into it a little bit

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Speaker 1: creating an offshore account way back in the day, and

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Speaker 1: kept doing it in college and kind of fell in

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Speaker 1: love with it, kind of got addicted to, you know,

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Speaker 1: trying to make power ratings, even though they weren't necessarily

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Speaker 1: that sharp at the time. Ended up deciding after college,

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Speaker 1: after I graduated at Kentucky, I was going to go

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Speaker 1: out west and try to make it in the sportsbook industry.

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Speaker 1: So moved out west in twenty twelve. Actually got started

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Speaker 1: at Caesar's as a ticket writer, moved over to CG

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Speaker 1: as took a ticket writing job there at the M.

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Speaker 1: The M was the hub for CG back in the day.

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Speaker 1: Eventually worked my way up into the risk room back

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Speaker 1: there at the M and was there for about three

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Speaker 1: or four years. Left there and then bet professionally for

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Speaker 1: about eighteen months, and then joined Caesars last August. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's been a pretty crazy ride since I got out

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Speaker 1: here back in twenty twelve.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about the odds making process for wind Totals,

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Speaker 3: because I preach it on our podcast all year. For

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Speaker 3: those of you that are new on the Action Network podcast,

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Speaker 3: we do have our Action Colleges podcast that we cut

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Speaker 3: last year, and even two years ago, Stucky and I

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Speaker 3: were cutting the Degend and Juice podcast.

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Speaker 2: So everybody should know that you're.

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Speaker 3: A longtime listener about how I do my off season adjustments,

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Speaker 3: whether it's progression to the mean, whether it's returning production,

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Speaker 3: whether it's second order win totals, net turnovers. Can you

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Speaker 3: give us an idea of the sort of process you

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Speaker 3: go through to do off season adjustments on a PR

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Speaker 3: for a college football team.

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Speaker 1: I actually did something a little different this year, I

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Speaker 1: kind of dumbed it down. In the past, what I

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Speaker 1: would do is go through each team and I would

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Speaker 1: assign a rating by position, and then the sum of

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Speaker 1: those ratings would give me my power rating for each team.

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Speaker 1: This year, I decided I was I was going to

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Speaker 1: get away from that, and I just ended up taking

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Speaker 1: three different things. I took last year's beginning power rating,

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Speaker 1: their final power rating, and then the average power rating,

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Speaker 1: and I went through those three things. Actually also looked

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Speaker 1: at the average power rating from two years ago and

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Speaker 1: just kind of use those to help paint a picture

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Speaker 1: of where this team was power rated last year. You know,

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Speaker 1: if they worked their way up or down throughout the

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Speaker 1: season and why. And so I kind of took that

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Speaker 1: final power rating and based on some of the things,

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Speaker 1: you know, returning starters, you know, returning production, a lot

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Speaker 1: of things, some of the coaching changes and whatnot, making

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Speaker 1: minor adjustments for most of the teams from that final

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Speaker 1: power rating. So there are a few situations where you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty significant adjustments. I think West Virginia's one example. I

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Speaker 1: think I moved as much as ten points. But for

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Speaker 1: the most part, a lot of the adjustments are somewhere

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Speaker 1: in the three to five point range.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, ten points is about how much the line moved

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Speaker 3: to get Syracuse in the Bowl game. With you know

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Speaker 3: everything that happened last year. But let's talk about the

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Speaker 3: elephant in the room, which is the influence that something,

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Speaker 3: you know, something as some outside material can have on

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Speaker 3: say a power rating or say your total wintal that

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Speaker 3: you come up with. And specifically I'm talking about Phil

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Speaker 3: Steele and I'm talking about S and P plus because

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Speaker 3: years have gone by where I've made my own power

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Speaker 3: ratings and I'll have them done in February. I'll have

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Speaker 3: them done in March, and then I'll be looking for

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Speaker 3: and offshore somebody in Vegas, and the first time they

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Speaker 3: PLoP something down, I'm there to jump on it. But

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Speaker 3: it's hard to ignore the fact that Phil Steele, whether

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Speaker 3: it's good or whether it's bad, or however you feel

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Speaker 3: about it, it does have influence on the market. And

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Speaker 3: a prime example of that is so many years he'll

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Speaker 3: have like TCU as his most surprise team. So you

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Speaker 3: know that a lot of people are going to read

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Speaker 3: that and a lot of people are going to react

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Speaker 3: to that. At the window last year, I remember I

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Speaker 3: only wanted to see one thing, and that was where

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Speaker 3: he had UAB. Did he have UAB winning their division?

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Speaker 3: Did he have them win in the Conference USA? Because

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Speaker 3: UAB twenty to one was something that I was hopping

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Speaker 3: on all over town and offshore and anywhere I could

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Speaker 3: get money down.

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Speaker 2: Same thing with Utah this year. So Phil Steel's influence.

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Speaker 2: If he punched in Utah.

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Speaker 3: At all in his magazine, then maybe I can get

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Speaker 3: some pretty sweet numbers, whether it's in Jersey or whether

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Speaker 3: it's there in Vegas. But this year he had Utah

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Speaker 3: as his number one surprise team, so I knew that

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Speaker 3: Utah was going to be a stale number probably by

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Speaker 3: the end of July. Does anything like that kind of

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Speaker 3: affect the way that you have win totals?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you have to respect Steel's preseason opinion.

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Speaker 1: I think you're not going to be able to go

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Speaker 1: through in twenty nineteen only using a Phil Steel magazine

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Speaker 1: and probably have any type of edge. You're going to

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Speaker 1: have to incorporate other sources like S and P, stuff

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Speaker 1: you find on the internet, and obviously just your own

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Speaker 1: feel for each team. But I think looking at Steel,

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Speaker 1: he's got a really good pulse on teams that should

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Speaker 1: be improved or worse than last year. I think he's

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Speaker 1: always had a pretty good read on that after doing

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Speaker 1: this magazine for so many years, so I do think

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Speaker 1: it's worth noting. And typically what I'll do, I'll go

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Speaker 1: through before I says any of his rankings or power ratings,

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Speaker 1: I'll go through and do the teams myself, and I'll

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Speaker 1: make minor adjustments based on our big discrepancy. So if

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Speaker 1: I maybe him six to seven points off of him,

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Speaker 1: I'll maybe move a team two points in his direction,

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Speaker 1: or two and a half points. If the team's all

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Speaker 1: three or four points, maybe I'll move a point point

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Speaker 1: a half. And same goes for S and P. And

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Speaker 1: especially when making numbers on a week to week basis,

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Speaker 1: I think you have to shade a little bit towards

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Speaker 1: those numbers. So gives you a little bit of an

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Speaker 1: idea another respectable source. And obviously the more people you

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Speaker 1: can talk to and more opinions you can gather about

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Speaker 1: a team, the easier it is to really get a

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Speaker 1: solid number.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, S and P plus has been from a week

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Speaker 3: to week standpoint, not really preseason, but within the actual season.

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Speaker 3: It's good to know Saturday night before I go to

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Speaker 3: bed exactly where S and P plus is probably going

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Speaker 3: to be the next day when points for it's come out,

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Speaker 3: because it affects where people bet it is actually moving

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Speaker 3: the line. And if it's opposite of how I feel

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Speaker 3: about the game and opposite of the direction I think

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Speaker 3: the line should go, then that is something on openers

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Speaker 3: where I know I'm not going to touch it. I'm

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Speaker 3: going to let it move a certain way before I

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Speaker 3: get a key number in the way that I want

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Speaker 3: to go. So let's talk about something else, which could

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Speaker 3: be like massive public influence. Do teams like Nebraska Notre

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Speaker 3: Dame USC do they get shaded more on the overside

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Speaker 3: with their raw wind projection just because of the brand

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Speaker 3: name and maybe the people that come into town, tourists

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Speaker 3: that want to come into town and they want to

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Speaker 3: get a Notre Dame ticket down and Nebraska ticket down.

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Speaker 2: Is that a part of the process also, You.

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Speaker 1: Know, I think you could make the argument for doing that,

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Speaker 1: but that's not something we really set out to do.

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Speaker 1: When we're making it, We're trying to put up a

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Speaker 1: fair number based on, you know, what our power rating

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Speaker 1: for the team is going into the season, and obviously

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Speaker 1: the schedule that you know they put together. So we're

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Speaker 1: not necessarily saying, Okay, maybe we should shade this or

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Speaker 1: that team because they're going to be really public. We

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Speaker 1: want to put up a number that isn't going to

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Speaker 1: invite any any sharp money on either side, hopefully something

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Speaker 1: that you know, looks like it's about where it should be.

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Speaker 1: So that thing I think we're looking to do is

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Speaker 1: maybe shade a team like that too high, assuming we're

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Speaker 1: going to get over money and then the sharps come

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Speaker 1: in and bet you under. So for the most part,

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Speaker 1: I think we probably were a little higher on Nebraska

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Speaker 1: because there are a lot of positive signs and a

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Speaker 1: lot of things to like, and there was there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of public centiment in the futures market with them.

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Speaker 1: But other than that, I mean, you know, that's a

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Speaker 1: pretty extreme example, so for the most part, you're you're

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Speaker 1: pretty much just trying to put up the right number.

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Speaker 3: It reminds me of that tweet that you got during

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Speaker 3: college baseball season where you listed all the College World

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Speaker 3: Series odds to win it all and somebody said, well,

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Speaker 3: which one do you like best? And I think your

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Speaker 3: retort was, well, I kind of like them all because

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Speaker 3: I set the numbers like.

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Speaker 2: If I had at a personal favorite that I would

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Speaker 2: actually move the numbers.

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Speaker 3: And I'm the one to be in the odds, so

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Speaker 3: I would assume that these win totals we see are

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Speaker 3: exactly where you think they should be to get even

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Speaker 3: action on both sides. So Matt's not going to play

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Speaker 3: favorites on either side. I think that's going to be

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Speaker 3: my role here and I'm going to more ask about

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Speaker 3: my win totals versus what Matt posted here in the

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Speaker 3: last week and see if we can find something else

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Speaker 3: out there. So always shop around. I thought the numbers

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Speaker 3: Matt put up, I thought they were excellent. Finally somebody

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Speaker 3: hit Missouri right, somebody hit Purdue right. I am not

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Speaker 3: going to name who. Somebody put a Syracuse five up,

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Speaker 3: which was, you know, just ridiculous. So but with that,

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Speaker 3: we're going to start with the acc win totals. If

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Speaker 3: you guys want to reference all of the win totals,

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Speaker 3: you can go to at Linda Train. Matt has tweeted

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Speaker 3: out all of the Caesars numbers, So for those of

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Speaker 3: you that are out of state from Nevada, that's a

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Speaker 3: good way for you to see where these opened up.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure they will move with you know, coordinating action

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Speaker 3: that comes in, but I wanted to look at a

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Speaker 3: couple of these. I'm going to start in the Atlantic Division,

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Speaker 3: and you got to start with Clemson. If you're talking

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Speaker 3: about ACC, you got to start with Clemson and everything.

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Speaker 3: In my power ratings, they're favored by at least two

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Speaker 3: tds in every game. I really don't like the spot

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Speaker 3: with Texas A and M considering what Texas A and

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Speaker 3: M was able to do last year, Clemson losing a

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Speaker 3: whole bunch on defense. I mean, they do have blue

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Speaker 3: chip recruits everywhere, and you know they're going to have

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Speaker 3: a lot of talent on the defensive side. But this

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Speaker 3: is a game where if Texas A and M can

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Speaker 3: just run wild and Kellen Mond can run wild, they

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Speaker 3: may take advantage of a very in experience Clemson defense.

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Speaker 3: And don't forget this Clemson game against Texas A and

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Speaker 3: M is in between an ACC sandwich. So it's in

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Speaker 3: between Georgia Tech and then Syracuse the following week. So

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Speaker 3: I think the main question I want to ask about

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Speaker 3: Clemson because I don't I think the answer is no,

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Speaker 3: But are there any cleansing futures that you personally think

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Speaker 3: have value.

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Speaker 1: You know, Clemson's tough right now. I think the Cats

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Speaker 1: kind of out of the bag. We saw them pretty

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Speaker 1: much put together the most impressive performance we've seen from

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Speaker 1: any team not named Alabama in the last five years,

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Speaker 1: So their stock really couldn't be higher than it is

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Speaker 1: going into the season. I do think the schedule is

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Speaker 1: incredibly favorable, and the fact that they are suffering some

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Speaker 1: of these losses on defense will be masked by the

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Speaker 1: fact that they have an offense that scored forty four

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Speaker 1: points a game last year. So instead of you know,

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Speaker 1: average margin and victory being thirty one points a game,

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Speaker 1: they might only win by twenty five this year if

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Speaker 1: they if they struggle on defense. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be much of an issue. And it's

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Speaker 1: it's really tough to look at the schedule and actually

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Speaker 1: say this is a game I think they can lose.

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Speaker 1: But you know, when you're a twenty something point favorite

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Speaker 1: in every game, inevitably there's just going to be that

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Speaker 1: week where things aren't clicking and it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a little sketchy. So I do think Clemson, you know,

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Speaker 1: like every team that goes through an undefeated season is

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Speaker 1: probably gonna have a scare two along the way.

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Speaker 3: You know, I have to say this as we'll talk.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to talk about Heisman another time. But if

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Speaker 3: Clinton's defense falls off what they did last year, which

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Speaker 3: they probably will, that probably needs more snaps for Trevor Lawrence,

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Speaker 3: which could beef up some Heisman numbers. All Right, So

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Speaker 3: that's definitely discussion for another time. I'm gonna moved to

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Speaker 3: Florida State because I see myself moving towards one direction

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Speaker 3: with Florida State's futures and with Week one, and I

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Speaker 3: just keep going back to some of the things they

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Speaker 3: had the biggest jump in my offseason prs for the ACC.

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Speaker 3: I gave him points for bringing in Kendall Brows as

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Speaker 3: the offensive coordinator. Harlan Barnett was a defensive coordinator at

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Speaker 3: Michigan State. This is his second year. Most of all

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Speaker 3: the returning production comes back on defense. They are looking

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Speaker 3: like they're going to be a top twenty s and

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Speaker 3: P plus defense. They were minus eleven and net turnovers

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Speaker 3: last year, which was one hundred and twenty third in FBS.

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Speaker 3: Some of these games ULM Alabama State, they got home

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Speaker 3: games with Louisville and NC State. I mean most of

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Speaker 3: the accs just track Roady's against Wake and Boston College.

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Speaker 3: I think they can get to seven, but you know,

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Speaker 3: I think, particularly with this win total, you said it

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Speaker 3: at seven, I've got it at seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: I think the better bed is to take them in

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Speaker 3: Week one against Boise because that's such a swing game

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Speaker 3: with the win totals with Florida State. Is this a

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Speaker 3: team you'll be looking to adjust quickly with their pr

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Speaker 3: if they have some decent offense, if they have some

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Speaker 3: offensive line protection against Boise, if they look good and

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Speaker 3: they win that game and cover, is this a game

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Speaker 3: you'll be quick to move on their prs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm going to have to be really aggressive with

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Speaker 1: Florida State based on probably that first game. I mentioned

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Speaker 1: it on Twitter a few weeks ago, but they actually

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Speaker 1: had an eighteen point drop from the beginning of last

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Speaker 1: year to the end of last year in my power ratings,

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Speaker 1: so really hard to kind of decide where they need

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Speaker 1: to fall in that range. So I think I ended

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Speaker 1: up just going somewhere roughly in the middle with them.

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Speaker 1: But that's a good example of a team that I

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Speaker 1: didn't want to spend too much time on in the

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Speaker 1: preseason because I know after one game I'm going to

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Speaker 1: really be able to see if they're taking significant strides

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Speaker 1: or if this is just a new level for Florida State.

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Speaker 1: So it's going to be a really interesting first game.

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Speaker 1: I think Boise historically really likes playing undisciplined, talented Power

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Speaker 1: conference schools. They typically take advantage of those situations. But

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Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of upside of Florida State.

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Speaker 1: So I'm a pretty big fan of the Kendall Briles higher.

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Speaker 1: I think he saved major apple White for a while

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Speaker 1: at Houston and he did pretty well, So I think

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Speaker 1: the offense is going to be a lot better. So

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Speaker 1: there's plenty of light, but it's just a matter of

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Speaker 1: if the coaching can kind of get everything to jail.

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Speaker 1: It just didn't really seem to be working last year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, They're just a little bit of quarterback

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Speaker 3: play at some offensive line protection away from being a

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Speaker 3: major upgrade from what they were in the past.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to move over to the Coastal.

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Speaker 3: I often joke that the ACC Coastal and the PAC

329
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Speaker 3: twelve South are probably competing to like to be relegated

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Speaker 3: to the FCS because some pretty bad teams.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: Virginia Tech I had, is the highest market returning production.

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Speaker 3: Georgia Tech was the lowest. You know, based upon your

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Speaker 3: numbers alone, what we're looking at. Do you think Miami

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Speaker 3: will have better coastal odds? Because I'm looking to get

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Speaker 3: a Virginia Tech coastal future. You've got MYAMMI at eight

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Speaker 3: and a half wins, I got Virginia Tech at eight

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Speaker 3: little bit of juice on both. Do you think Miami

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Speaker 3: will have better coastal odds which may be a good shot.

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Speaker 2: To take Virginia Tech.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually had Miami rated a couple points higher

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Speaker 1: than Virginia Tech. I'm not very high, and either relative

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Speaker 1: to where they typically start the year, I've gotten down

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Speaker 1: a little bit. I'm curious to see how many DAS

345
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Speaker 1: does in Miami, And honestly, I just have no clue

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Speaker 1: on Virginia Tech ever, so I might be a little

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Speaker 1: too low. But yeah, I think with Virginia Tech playing

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Speaker 1: at Miami and me having a higher power rate in Miami,

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Speaker 1: is going to have to be the favorite in the division.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, And Miami hosts that game. But they have a

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Speaker 3: much tougher schedule than Virginia Tech does, so it's not

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Speaker 3: like anybody's going to go undefeated in the ACC except

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Speaker 3: for Clemson, so you know there are going to be

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Speaker 3: losses to be had. The one thing I wanted to

356
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Speaker 3: get out of here on is there was a huge

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Speaker 3: difference between what you have for Pittsburgh for over five

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Speaker 3: and a half, but it is shaded to the minus

359
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Speaker 3: one fifty versus what I have for pitt which is

360
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Speaker 3: six point eight. After Delaware, there's like six to eight

361
00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,960
Speaker 3: coin flip games on there. I like the hiring of

362
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Speaker 3: Mark Whipple, who was the old UMass head coach responsible

363
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Speaker 3: for a lot of the offense and the exciting the

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Speaker 3: reason to watch a UMass game was the offense that

365
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Speaker 3: Mark Whipple was putting out up there. He's not the

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Speaker 3: offensive coordinator at pit so he comes to Kenny Pickett.

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Speaker 3: There should be some more stability and some more success

368
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Speaker 3: and efficiency out of Kittie Pickett. They were one hundred

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Speaker 3: and third passing S and P plus last year. Did

370
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Speaker 3: your twenty nineteen initial pr Did they take any deductions

371
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Speaker 3: away from twenty eighteen?

372
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Speaker 2: Do you know if you went up or down on

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Speaker 2: pitt and what the reasons may have been.

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Speaker 1: I actually dropped pitt and I think the reason being that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the most legal part of their team last

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Speaker 1: year was the dynamic duo. They had a running back

377
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Speaker 1: with Hollison and Hall, and those two were incredible in

378
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Speaker 1: the backfield, and they're both gone. And I will say

379
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Speaker 1: that I don't value running backs nearly as much as

380
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Speaker 1: its quarterbacks and wide receivers. I think that having your

381
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Speaker 1: studs come back in those positions like Pittsburgh does is

382
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Speaker 1: definitely favorable. But I think replacing two guys of that

383
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Speaker 1: caliber is going to be tough. I think the hire

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Speaker 1: is interesting. Seems like there's a lot of controversy around Whipple,

385
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Speaker 1: but he seems like a really sharp offensive mine And

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Speaker 1: I was not a fan of Sean Watson, So I

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Speaker 1: do agree with you there that they're upgrading a little bit.

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Speaker 1: You know, maybe I was a little too harsh on

389
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Speaker 1: dropping them a little bit, but you know, I just

390
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Speaker 1: am kind of curious to see how they replace that

391
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Speaker 1: production with two guys that pretty much carried their offense

392
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Speaker 1: last year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Mark Whipple's using language it was acceptable

394
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Speaker 3: in the sixties.

395
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Speaker 2: He's not up and hip with the terminology that you

396
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Speaker 2: can and cannot used today.

397
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Speaker 3: So with that, we're going to move to the Big twelve,

398
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Speaker 3: which the one team that jumped off the paper back

399
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Speaker 3: when New Jersey started putting out wind totals, they put

400
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Speaker 3: out an Oklahoma.

401
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Speaker 2: State five and a half.

402
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Speaker 3: Now you came out at seven with a juice to

403
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 3: to a dollar thirty on the over. My number on

404
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 3: this is eight point four, which is way off of

405
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 3: the current seven. But I mean I got enough down.

406
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 3: I got a little bit of the five and a half,

407
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Speaker 3: I got more on six, I got more on six

408
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 3: and a half, And like I wrote for the Action Network,

409
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Speaker 3: you know, I would take this all the way up

410
00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 3: into seven and a half because there's so many things

411
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Speaker 3: going on with this team that I like. They've identified

412
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,720
Speaker 3: their problems from last year. Their second order win totals

413
00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 3: was in the positive. They've hired offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson

414
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,240
Speaker 3: from Princeton, who was the most explosive offense at FCS

415
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,359
Speaker 3: with forty, averaging forty seven points per game. I actually

416
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Speaker 3: sat down on YouTube one night and watched a bunch

417
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 3: of Princeton offense and it was just misdirection and people,

418
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 3: not the quarterback throwing the ball and all kinds of fakes,

419
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Speaker 3: and it's going to be some exciting stuff if they

420
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Speaker 3: can get good offensive line play, which they did not

421
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Speaker 3: get last year at Oklahoma State.

422
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Speaker 2: And something else.

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Speaker 3: Tom Herman has not beaten Oklahoma State since since he

424
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Speaker 3: was an assistant coach at Iowa State in two thousand

425
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Speaker 3: and nine. So I just thought five and a half

426
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Speaker 3: was bad. Six was bad. Seven is a lot better.

427
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Speaker 3: I am at a point four. Has there been any

428
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Speaker 3: over money come in on the Pokes in the last.

429
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Speaker 1: Few days since he posted big twelve, we've actually seen

430
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Speaker 1: two way action on Oklahoma State. That's one of the

431
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,440
Speaker 1: few teams where they've actually bet both ways. We opened

432
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Speaker 1: it a little bit lower than I actually made it,

433
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Speaker 1: just because we knew where the market was in Jersey

434
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Speaker 1: and we knew that that under money was going to come,

435
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 1: so we shaded it down a little bit just knowing

436
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Speaker 1: that we would get that those bets anyway, and we

437
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Speaker 1: took a couple of bets and then we've actually had

438
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Speaker 1: some money come back over. So I think that's a

439
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,679
Speaker 1: good sign that our numbers probably about where it should be.

440
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, the thing that interests me with Oklahoma State

441
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 1: is Mike Gundy takes him to a bowl game pretty

442
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 1: much every single season. I think he's been to a

443
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,680
Speaker 1: bowl game at least every year for the last ten years.

444
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 1: So to hang up a number of five and a

445
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,959
Speaker 1: half or six when they returned twelve starters, I mean,

446
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,440
Speaker 1: for me, they would have to lose pretty much everyone

447
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,199
Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball to be able to

448
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 1: justify win total like that. So you have to have

449
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 1: some faith in Gundhy. He knows what he's doing, and

450
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 1: it just didn't seem like things really click with Oklahoma

451
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 1: State last year. But you go through and look at

452
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 1: the last ten years, every time they've won seven or

453
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,360
Speaker 1: eight games, they've followed with a ten win season. So

454
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 1: this is a team that you can usually expect is gonna,

455
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 1: you know, probably surprise you more so than they're going

456
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 1: to disappoint you. So I do think it's a team

457
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 1: that's kind of interesting.

458
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 2: Exactly.

459
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: Let's move on to probably the team I'm not going

460
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 3: to be able to start making fun of the entire year,

461
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 3: which is Kansas. So I got a notification from you

462
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: the other day and it was essentially, hey, the Big

463
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 3: twelve's going up and I think my response to you

464
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 3: was something like, please tell me Kansas three and a

465
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,360
Speaker 3: half is going up so my kids get a free

466
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 3: ski trip this winter.

467
00:18:58,280 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 2: You know.

468
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 3: So, I don't like what less Miles is doing. The

469
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 3: coordinating situation is a mess, losing a bunch of players.

470
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 3: You have it, Kansas at three with the under juice

471
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,359
Speaker 3: at minus one sixty at what juice? I think this

472
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:11,959
Speaker 3: brings up a good topic that we need to talk

473
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 3: about because I get hit up on this all the

474
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:15,920
Speaker 3: time with the Action Network stuff and some of the

475
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 3: articles that I post and the wind totals I post.

476
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 3: If you're reading one of my articles maybe two or

477
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 3: three days later, the juice is absolutely going to move

478
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 3: and the number may move on you. So this is

479
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,920
Speaker 3: in relation to what you posted just yesterday on Twitter,

480
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 3: which I'm jealous of you for getting some of the

481
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:30,880
Speaker 3: teams you did because I've been waiting on them.

482
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 2: What juice?

483
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 3: Do you stop hitting futures because we're going to get

484
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 3: to the PAC twelve. I've been dying to get a

485
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 3: Washington under ten under minus one fifty. Minus one fifty

486
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 3: is like really the barrier for me and my theory

487
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 3: is is that this may come down to a one

488
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:44,959
Speaker 3: game situation that you might want to hedge out of,

489
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 3: and it's easier to hedge when you're closer to even juice.

490
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 3: It no juice at all or even plus juice minus

491
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 3: one fifty is really my barrier. Do you have a

492
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 3: place where you stop hitting futures as far as the

493
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 3: juice goes?

494
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, for me, it really depends on the number. When

495
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,360
Speaker 1: you start getting into wind totals and the nine ten

496
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,719
Speaker 1: eleven range, there's a smaller range of outcomes, so the

497
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 1: half wins are worth quite a bit more than when

498
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 1: you got win totals in the you know, five to

499
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,160
Speaker 1: eight range, where a team probably has seven eight coin

500
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 1: flippish games and there's a pretty wide range of what

501
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: can happen in their season. So for me, if I'm

502
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 1: gonna lay a lot of jews, I don't mind it.

503
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: If I'm betting, you know, maybe an under over ten,

504
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 1: maybe an under over eleven, something like that, we're willing

505
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: to lay, you know, minus one seventy one eighty, maybe

506
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,919
Speaker 1: even two dollars if it's bad enough, as opposed to

507
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 1: some of these win totals kind in the middle where

508
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 1: it just you know, there's so many things that can

509
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 1: happen that you really don't need to pay that juice.

510
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,880
Speaker 1: So typically, yeah, numbers that are a lot higher or

511
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 1: in this instance like Kansas at three, definitely willing to

512
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 1: pay a little more juice. And typically I'm paying juice

513
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 1: on the full win. I usually I'm not going to

514
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: bet under over seven and a half or under over

515
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 1: five and a half minus one fifty. That just doesn't

516
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: really make sense to me. So it's typically going to

517
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 1: be on a whole number as opposed to a half number.

518
00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think Kansas, if you guys want to

519
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 3: take a takeaway, I would pay camp. I would pay

520
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 3: the minus one sixty on Kansas for the under. I

521
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: mean the schedule Indiana State, Coastal Carolina. Yeah, maybe maybe

522
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: they'll get that win, but they're gonna be two touchdown

523
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 3: dogs to Boston College and then you're asking them to

524
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 3: win a conference game, so you know it's not looking

525
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 3: good for Kansas.

526
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 2: Let's move on to TCU.

527
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,959
Speaker 3: I for some reason, am so far off from the

528
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 3: market from everybody else with TCU. Everybody's high on TCU.

529
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 3: I know Phil Steel had them, and there's their number

530
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 3: three surprise team. They opened up at Caesars. You guys

531
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 3: have them at seven and a half with the under

532
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 3: at minus one forty, and I've got it at five

533
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 3: point seven. I can tell you the reasons why I've

534
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 3: got it, and then really I've got it here. Why

535
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 3: not only you, but there are other you know, other

536
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: people out there that have put out their preseason stuff.

537
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 3: Everybody's higher on TCU than me. So, I mean, the

538
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,679
Speaker 3: four to two five defense is projected to be top twenty,

539
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 3: but they're one hundred and eleventh in defensive returning production.

540
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 3: So the numbers that they had last year, you can't

541
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 3: really look at that. Their quarterback situation, Robinson and mule

542
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 3: Stein's out, we don't know if Justin Rodgers, with the

543
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 3: guy that had the draw foot last year, the big

544
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 3: time recruit, we don't know if he's going to pan out.

545
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 3: Michael Collins a quarterback, I mean, he's good enough just

546
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 3: to run the offense, but not have any flash. They

547
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 3: go to Purdue in non conference, they only have four

548
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 3: Big twelve home games, and two of them that they

549
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 3: have at home in Fort Worth are against West Virginia

550
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 3: and Kansas. They have a brutal Big Twelve road schedule.

551
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 3: You know, in terms of the Big Twelve. So how

552
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: did you get to the number that you got to.

553
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, TC is a team that I generally, you know,

554
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: kind of like Oklahoma State. Give them some respect just

555
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: because Gary Patterson is proven that he does a great

556
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,360
Speaker 1: job of kind of bouncing back from a down year,

557
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: and looking at them last year, they're beginning PR. I

558
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 1: looks like I dropped him about eleven points from the

559
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 1: beginning of the season to the end, and that was

560
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 1: mostly due to injuries. It wasn't as much them struggling

561
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 1: as I think their entire offensive line, their secondary was

562
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, they were just decimated by injuries.

563
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: I think they lost a few other guys, key guys

564
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 1: in the offense. So I didn't really trust that my

565
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: final PR was the accurate number for them. So I

566
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: was pretty aggressive and bumping them back up. And I'm

567
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: not quite to where I had them last year, but

568
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: I did give them a pretty decent bump, I think

569
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: five or six points from where they were at the

570
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 1: end of last season. So I'm kind of interested to

571
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: see what they do. And they've been really inconsistent the

572
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: last two years in the Big Twelve. But Kerry Patterson's

573
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: proven time and time again that he's got ability to

574
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: win ten games with this team. So it was just

575
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 1: one of those teams I didn't real feel comfortable disrespecting.

576
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: So I agree with that.

577
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 3: But one team I am ready to disrespect and I

578
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 3: have already disrespected them with my future numbers is Texas.

579
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 2: I'm so far low on Texas. I've got them around

580
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 2: six wins.

581
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: I know that you got them released out there at

582
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 3: Caesars at nine with minus one O five with the over.

583
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: I knocked their pr this offseason. They got them in

584
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 3: two points for a second order win total. I gave

585
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 3: minus four and a half for returning production. I gave

586
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 3: minus one for their net turnovers. They were lucky. They've

587
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: lost a lot of players. They won a lot of

588
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 3: close games they shouldn't have. I take a lot of

589
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 3: heat from Texas, Texas and their fans. I mean, this

590
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 3: is a team that barely beat Kansas. This is a

591
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: team that I mean, they show up to the Sure

592
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 3: Bowl against the Georgia team that didn't want to be there.

593
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 3: My real problem with them is Sam Ellinger. You know,

594
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 3: he has sixteen tds rushing last year. It just seems

595
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 3: like his philosophy on offenses. If he can't get the

596
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 3: ball off, he's going to run his way to a

597
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,239
Speaker 3: first down every time, and you can only do that

598
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 3: so much. You know, any team with a decent middle

599
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: linebacker that can play spy, that has some corners could

600
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 3: beat Texas. And which funny is that they have La

601
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 3: Tech in Week one, who has one of the best

602
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 3: cornerbacks in.

603
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: All of college football.

604
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 3: So are you expecting any respected sharp money to hit

605
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 3: the over on Texas? Not just any money on the over.

606
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: I know you're going to get over money on Texas

607
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 3: at the number that they're at, But do you expect

608
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 3: to see any sharp money hit the Texas over?

609
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 1: You know, I think we already had some money come

610
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: in on the over. We knew that we went through

611
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: and made the Texas win total, and I actually didn't

612
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 1: drop them much from roughly where they the last season,

613
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: despite all their losses. I think you can argue that

614
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: the program just maybe elevated a little bit from what

615
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: we saw against Georgia and the Sugar Bowls. So I

616
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: gave them a little bit of respect foreseeing that, and

617
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: maybe that Herman has the team trending in the right direction.

618
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: So despite the losses, I wasn't as hard on them

619
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 1: as I think some other guys I've talked to. But

620
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: with all that said, I think we still had their

621
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 1: win total around the eight and a half range, and

622
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,479
Speaker 1: when we went through and looked at other places, they

623
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: had nine and a half juiced under or nine heavily

624
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: juiced over. So we decided to just hang nine with

625
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: it slightly reduced under and still took some of that

626
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 1: Chaser money or Smiddler money over nine. So we've taken

627
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: some over money there, which is nice as opposed to

628
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: us opening eight and a half and we would have

629
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: been just inundated with money. So I'm not crazy about them,

630
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: but I do think the win total seems a little high,

631
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 1: but I'm not quite as down as I think you wore.

632
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 3: I know what's going to happen here is you know,

633
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 3: spoiler alert for everybody In the Week two. I'm going

634
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: to be heavy on LSU and there's going to probably

635
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 3: be four turnovers involved.

636
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 2: There's gonna be something I don't know. LSU is a

637
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 2: fun team. We're gonna get to the SEC.

638
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 3: But I mean what LSU did in their bowl games

639
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 3: where they were just lining up in four wides and

640
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 3: going straight down the field, as like, I don't know

641
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 3: who this LSU team is, but I can't wait to

642
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: see more of it.

643
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 2: This year.

644
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 3: We're going to move on to the Big Ten, So

645
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 3: we're gonna start with Nebraska, who most shops have at

646
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 3: about eight flat. You guys open them up at eight

647
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: and a half with minus ten both ways. How did

648
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: we get to eight and a half here? Was it

649
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: close to the pr that came out or is it

650
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 3: just the expectation and relatives to the other.

651
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 2: Shops that are out.

652
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I kind of decided to go with

653
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: the public sentiment here and be pretty aggressive bumping Nebraska up.

654
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: I just am really impressed by, you know, what Scott

655
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,439
Speaker 1: Frost did at UCF, and I think that this is

656
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 1: a four and eight team that obviously was much better

657
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 1: than their record, struggled in close games and started so

658
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: poorly that it just never really got on track. But

659
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot to like. So I gave

660
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: them a lot of respect and bumped them I want

661
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: to say three or four point strum last year's end

662
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: of the season rating, and that gave me a number

663
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 1: around a little over eight and a half. So I

664
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: think we just ended up deciding to shape eight and

665
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: a half with the overjuiced and we've actually taken some

666
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 1: over money. Yeah, so we're up to looks like eight

667
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: and a half over minus one twenty five now, So

668
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: Nebraska's probably going to be a popular team on the

669
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: wind total, just like they are in the future. So

670
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised we'd take a little more over money.

671
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 1: But yeah, you know another team that I felt pretty

672
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 1: you know, solid about them making another jump this year,

673
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: so I didn't want to disrespect them too much.

674
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I agree that Nebraska is going to take

675
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 3: a jump, but I mean asking them to get to

676
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: nine maybe something else. And I think, I think, I

677
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 3: just want to clarify because I've already written some Nebraska

678
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 3: under content out there, but just to say, you know, Nebraska,

679
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 3: I bumped them up for actual second order win total.

680
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: They had some really bad losses.

681
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: I mean, the Northwestern one was so close they should

682
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 3: have had that, So they got to tick up in

683
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: PR for second order win total. They were downgraded for

684
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 3: returning production. There's just things going on with the defensive coordinator.

685
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 3: Eric schnanderws his three four is really boom or bust,

686
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 3: so he's really trying to go for the big play,

687
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: but you know, they were terrible at defending the run.

688
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 3: The linebackers have thinned out this offseason. Their top three

689
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 3: tacklers in the secondary are gone. They just don't have

690
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 3: any depth in the back seven for twenty nineteen. So

691
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 3: deep offenses are going to be able to take advantage

692
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 3: of Nebraska. And I love Adrian Martinez, but maybe him

693
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 3: and Deeric Came I'm not really sure. There's two quarterbacks,

694
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 3: you know, they are more valuable to their team as

695
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 3: far as what they have else for weapons, you know,

696
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,959
Speaker 3: and only two offensive lineman return with double digit starts

697
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 3: for Nebraska. So I like Nebraska They're going to take

698
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 3: the next step. But I'm really kind of open they

699
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 3: finished the season around seven wins, because whatever number gets

700
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 3: posted in twenty twenty on Nebraska, I'm all in on

701
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 3: the overs. I think next year is the year once

702
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 3: they get some depth, especially on the defensive side of

703
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: the ball. So with any positive news from camp at

704
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 3: Wisconsin with Jack Cone in the quarterback situation, I mean,

705
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 3: he played great in the Pin Strike Bowl, but the

706
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: Wisconsin over eight, you know it's going to be added to

707
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 3: my futures. If I can just get some positive news

708
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 3: as what Paul Chris is doing up There has there

709
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 3: been any initial movement on the number that you put

710
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 3: out for the Badgers, which was eight even and minus

711
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 3: one twenty to the under.

712
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: We took some over money. I believe the over money

713
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: came because I think the shops in Jersey might have

714
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: been higher on Wisconsin. So I don't know if it

715
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: was as much opinion as much just you know, taking

716
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: the good number, cleaning up aboard a little bit. But

717
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: I do think there are some good things looking at

718
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: Wisconsin program that traditionally they usually win eight or more games.

719
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: It's just you know what they do. They're pretty consistently

720
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: cranking out, you know, nine to ten, and sometimes it

721
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: looks like they won thirteen games two years ago. You know,

722
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: eight seems very loaded in so I think from that

723
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,479
Speaker 1: perspective you can make a case for it. I'm a

724
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: ton of answers on defense. I think they lose looks

725
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: like for their top four tacklers or for the top

726
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: five tacklers. But you know, I didn't have a crazy

727
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: opinion on I think I'll bump them a couple of

728
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: points from where they were at the end. Of last year.

729
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, I've definitely seen some over money at eight

730
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 1: so far.

731
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 3: So let's get over to the big boys here, and

732
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 3: that is Michigan and Ohio State. So you had a

733
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 3: pretty big bet that you posted out on Twitter, which

734
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: was correct me if I'm wrong. It was a win

735
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 3: total matchup between Michigan Ohio State, and you were on

736
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: the Michigan side of this. Is this as easy as

737
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: you were just trying to get down on Michigan money

738
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 3: line at home later in the season when they host

739
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: Ohio State, which they are currently lying a game of

740
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 3: the year at minus three. Are you just trying to

741
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 3: take a Michigan money line or are you Because I'm

742
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 3: of the opinion they're going to finish way better than

743
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 3: Ohio State this year. I'm very down on Ohio State.

744
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 3: I can get into that after we hear what you say.

745
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 3: But I mean with the Michigan matchup, was what was

746
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 3: the thinking behind that?

747
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think you kind of nailed it

748
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: that the worst case, we're probably looking at a situation

749
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: where I would say, more often than not, both teams

750
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: are going to come into the season finale with the

751
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: same record, and I think Michigan's looking at probably being

752
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 1: a three to four point favorite right now, and looking

753
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: at both teams, Yeah, I'm a little down on Ohio State.

754
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: I'm nervous about justin fields. Obviously, you know, Urban being gone.

755
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: I don't think there's going to be a gigantic drop

756
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: off in year one, but I obviously think that's a

757
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 1: negative for them. And looking at Michigan, I really liked

758
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: who they brought in and as offensive coordinator, I think

759
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: it suits Shape Patterson really well. And obviously there have

760
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 1: some key losses on defense, but that defense is pretty

761
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: much dominated the Big Ten for the last three or

762
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: four years now, so it's just it's pretty much a

763
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: reload situation there. I don't think they're going to fall

764
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: out of the top ten or top fifteen. I really

765
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: like what I see out of Michigan, and yeah, I

766
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: think worst case, I'm probably looking at a situation where

767
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: I have moneyline in that final game. So yeah, we'll

768
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: see what happens, you know, kind of what we talked

769
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: about earlier, I really only had Michigan I think about

770
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: a quarter win higher than Ohio State on the win total,

771
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: but given how valuable those numbers are when you're in

772
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: the ten ten and a half range. I think it's

773
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,239
Speaker 1: pretty significant, so as an easy bet seeing it at

774
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: minus one tenth.

775
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: Both these teams have really fascinating stories. With Michigan, it's

776
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:23,719
Speaker 3: new offensive coordinator Josh Gaddis. He's all about explosive plays

777
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,719
Speaker 3: pace in space, which I think is a term that

778
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 3: my Eric Musselman, whne who head coach at Arkansas say.

779
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: But Josh Gaddis wants to you know, he wants to

780
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 3: get shape Patterson throwing the ball. He wants to get

781
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 3: the ball downfield, which is going to be a change

782
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 3: from last year because Michigan was mostly all about bully

783
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: ball and trying to run you over. And I don't

784
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 3: think Jim Harbaugh ever let them pass on first down,

785
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 3: and that's all going to change. But the question for

786
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 3: me with Josh Gaddis and this explosive offense that I

787
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 3: don't think he's you know, a didn't call an offense

788
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 3: while he was at Alabama or in the year's pass

789
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 3: But now he's got full control over this. What happens

790
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: in Week two when they play an army team, an

791
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: army team that limited Oklahoma to like eight possessions. I

792
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: mean Army can slim you down and make sure that

793
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 3: you've got to make the most out of every single play.

794
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 3: And if Michigan trips up offensively in that game, is

795
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 3: hardball going to take the reins from Gaddis after Week

796
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 3: two against Army. So that's something to watch there. As

797
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 3: far as Ohio State goes, I don't like what maps

798
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 3: Fields has looked so far. He was awful in the

799
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 3: spring game. He went four to thirteen. He's got passes

800
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 3: behind his targets. I think he threw one into the

801
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 3: ground at one point. You know, Ohio State has lost

802
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 3: four of their top career starters on the offensive line,

803
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: and you know that game against Cincinnati in Week two,

804
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 3: that's upset alert for me already because those players that

805
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 3: play for Cincinnati are going to want to beat Ohio

806
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 3: State and their head coach who would love to get

807
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 3: a feather in.

808
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: His cap for beating Ohio State. So we're going to

809
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 2: switch over to the SEC.

810
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 3: I don't think a lot of people want to hear

811
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: about me talking about Arkansas or hear about Kentucky football.

812
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 3: Let's talk about Kentucky real quick. You have them at

813
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 3: six and a half and my numbers have them at

814
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 3: five and a half and really, you know, replacing Josh

815
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 3: Allen who was eleven percent of the team tackles and

816
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: he was nineteen percent of the team havoc just seems

817
00:32:58,120 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 3: impossible to me. Do you have any other notes about

818
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: Kentucky about you know, the six and a half it

819
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: was it did the number just land there?

820
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: And how much of returning production dictated that number?

821
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Kentucky's team, that I think you can argue now

822
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: is one that has kind of elevated their program rating

823
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: a little bit based on what we saw last year.

824
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: You know, they returned fifteen, got fifteen starters last year,

825
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: but I don't think anyone really anticipated them making the

826
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: jump that they did, and you really started to see

827
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: some of the talent on the defensive side of the ball,

828
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: some of the guys that Stoops has brought in. So

829
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: I think that I gave Kentucky a little more respect

830
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: and wasn't as aggressive dropping them as going through. Looking

831
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: at Steel, it looks like he was a little tougher

832
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: on them. So using my initial pr I had them

833
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: pretty close to seven wins with them when I went

834
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: and kind of compared to Steel, we had a pretty

835
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: pretty big difference. We decided to go with six and

836
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: a half of juicy over, so we've actually taken a

837
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: little bit of over money so far. I think that

838
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: another place in town is sitting at seven, and I'm

839
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: trying to learn to not be pessimisty about Kentucky football.

840
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: I've doubted Stups in the pass and it hadn't gone well,

841
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 1: So I'm trying to keep the faith and assume that

842
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: they can kind of reload in the running game to

843
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 1: keep clicking even without finished.

844
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 3: Now they're losing two legendary program players on both sides

845
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 3: of the ball, so it's gonna be tough for Stoops

846
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 3: for replace.

847
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 2: But you're right, they have elevated their program.

848
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 3: There used to be days where I joke that Brett

849
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: Bielimo was better than Stoops, so that those days are

850
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 3: way long gone. So so let's talk about Missouri real quick.

851
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 3: You have them at eight with the overjuice to minus

852
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 3: one fifty, How quick are you going to be to

853
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 3: move them to eight and a half Because I could

854
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 3: go through a laundry real list of reasons why I

855
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 3: love Kelly Bryant, I love Larry Rowntree. They're running back

856
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 3: the four receivers. They have four receivers. They had fifty targets, Defensive,

857
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 3: secondary returns, everything. The team's biggest have a contributors, a

858
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 3: cornerback or back. The schedule is full of incompetent offenses.

859
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Odin was known as a head

860
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 3: coach that was it comes from the defensive background. But

861
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 3: for some reason, Missouri it keeps, you know, having these

862
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 3: high scoring games. You know, I just I will see

863
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 3: what Derek Dooley is gonna do. People will comment about

864
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 3: what he was doing with Drew Lock last year, completely

865
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: different what Hypel did in twenty seventeen. Missouri actually ran

866
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,240
Speaker 3: the more in twenty eighteen than they did in twenty seventeen.

867
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 3: So that's good for a Kelly Bryant offense. But how

868
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 3: quickly you be to move Missouri from eight to eight

869
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 3: and a half.

870
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 2: So if you see any sharp.

871
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 1: Money come in, Missouri was actually a team we didn't

872
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: realize until we opened and took some under beets that

873
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,439
Speaker 1: the books I guess in Jersey had quite a bit lower.

874
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 1: I think they had in the six and a half

875
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: seven range. So when we opened eight over minus one fifty,

876
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: we took a couple under beets and we're actually, yeah,

877
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: we're heavy to be under now. I think we have

878
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: it eight juiced under a little bit. So we're a

879
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: ways away from, you know, moving to eight and a half.

880
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: I think of some other places open higher, we'll probably

881
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: end up going back to where we started. But yeah,

882
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 1: Missouri's a team. You look at their non conference every year,

883
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 1: they're looking to go four and zero non conference. They

884
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: really don't strain themselves too much. And this year they

885
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: scheduled West Virginia, but they kind of stumble into a

886
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: down year with a team going through a coaching change

887
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 1: and all that in week two. So that's going to

888
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: be ideal situation for them. So pretty favorable schedule. I mean,

889
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: I don't really love Barry Odom. I don't love the

890
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: fact that, you know, even though Kelly Bryant's coming in,

891
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: they're replacing a guy that was pretty much one of

892
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: the best qbs in program history, So I think you

893
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 1: can underestimate the importance of that. I don't know it's

894
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: going to be interesting with them. I think they seem

895
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: like another looking at another eight win year roughly, and

896
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 1: it's just gonna kind of come down to some of

897
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: those swing games. I have an secs.

898
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 3: I'm definitely a little bit higher on them, and I

899
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 3: think DOULEI will get it going with Kelly Bryant there

900
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 3: and get the offensive tailored to him.

901
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 2: And I think this team's got a little bit.

902
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 3: Of a chip on their shoulder, especially with the whole

903
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 3: band from the Bowl thing for some stuff that Kentucky

904
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 3: you know, admitted that they did. So we'll see how

905
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 3: they play, even though I think that Bowl band's going

906
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 3: to get lifted, and if it does, it should be

907
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 3: amazing how motivated this team is. I'm going to switch

908
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 3: over to Alabama. Alabama under eleven and a half minus

909
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: three hundred. You are daring people to come into Caesars

910
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 3: to bet on a twelve and oho season for Alabama?

911
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 3: Is that what's going on?

912
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: You know? Essentially, we were trying to figure out what

913
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 1: we wanted to do, what we thought could generate the

914
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: most two way action. I had Alabama eleven point four

915
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 1: to three, so I really didn't want to use eleven.

916
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 1: And you just know, no, you're not going to get

917
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 1: a single underbed a eleven. It's just not going to

918
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 1: happen unless you probably go to you know, over minus

919
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 1: three dollars three fifty kind of like we did. So

920
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: knowing that the other places in town were used in

921
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 1: eleven and juicing it over heavily, we decided to kind

922
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: of use a different number, go with eleven and a

923
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 1: half and Yeah, essentially, with both Bama and Clinson, you're

924
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 1: betting on if they go undefeated in the regular season.

925
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 1: So we figured that would maybe generate a little more interest,

926
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,240
Speaker 1: a little more two way action instead of just throwing

927
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 1: up eleven and every dollar we take would be over.

928
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 3: I mean, you guys have got to still be taking

929
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 3: some money on the on the over plus two to

930
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 3: fifty for them to get to twelve and zero. But

931
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 3: I'm telling you, I read reports out there that two

932
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: is sitting out passing camps with a bum hamstring. I

933
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 3: don't know if he's out playing the intermeural softball or what.

934
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:40,919
Speaker 3: But if the kid's already hurt and it's just July

935
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 3: Alabama getting those twelve wins, it's going to be gonna

936
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 3: be an interesting season. We're going to go to the

937
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 3: PAC twelve now, We're going to try to get this

938
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: wrapped up. So the biggest difference that you and I

939
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 3: had in the Pac twelve was Colorado. I had Colorado

940
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 3: at five point three and the over is it three

941
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: and a half now? I actually upgraded them for the

942
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 3: new head coach, Mel Tucker, which he's been a long

943
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 3: time next and Kirby Smart assistant, he's been one of

944
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: their rising stars in their coaching ranks. They have good

945
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 3: returning production. Their second order win total gave them a

946
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 3: little bit of a bump. You know, I still have them.

947
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: Eleventh out of twelve teams in the conference.

948
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 3: But you know, is this a team that you expect

949
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 3: to only track unders because of new head coaches and

950
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 3: looking at a record of last year.

951
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 2: Did the three and a half come because you expect unders?

952
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 3: Or was it a strength of schedule a thing where

953
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 3: you know nine of their opponents are going to be

954
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 3: in the S and P plus top fifty.

955
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, we put three and a half because I mean,

956
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 1: I just really don't like this team, to be honest,

957
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 1: I don't like what I'm seeing with them. So we

958
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 1: were a little bit lower. And actually I think my

959
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 1: power rating was a little bit higher than what when

960
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: I went through and looked at Steel, he actually had

961
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: them even lower than I did. But I think there

962
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: are a lot of things to be concerned about here,

963
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: especially looking at the defense and only have four guys back.

964
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 1: It looks like they lose, you know, most of their

965
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: significant contributors on d and I do not like the

966
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, Tyson Summers. He was at Georgia Southern and

967
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 1: it was an absolute train wreck when he was there

968
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: as head coach. I think they were my biggest season

969
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 1: win under that year, and I think he ended up

970
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 1: getting fired after starting to zero to eight. The team

971
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 1: won three of their last five after he got fired

972
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 1: or something, So I'm really down on defensive coordinator higher

973
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 1: and their defense.

974
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: I don't know.

975
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: They're talking about switching to more of a running game,

976
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 1: which which seems kind of strange. So I think it's

977
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: going to be a little tricky for the Georgia guy.

978
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,919
Speaker 1: I'm sure Tucker is probably going to do well down

979
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 1: the line, but looking year one with this roster, I

980
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: think it's such a different situation than being at Georgia Alabama.

981
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: He's going to have a lot of work out of them.

982
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 1: So I'm down on Colorado and I think we open

983
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,879
Speaker 1: way lower than some other places, so we've actually taken

984
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 1: some over money in three and a half.

985
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 2: If you take out chanlt and Steven Montes, they had

986
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 2: they had twenty seven attempts at rushing the ball outside

987
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 2: of Steven Montes and Leviiscus chanalt So who's going to

988
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 2: run the ball there? I have no clue, but I

989
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 2: mean Chanalta is if they can still get the you know,

990
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 2: the ball out to him and the flats, He's definitely

991
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 2: a playmaker. But you're right, they do lose a lot

992
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 2: on defense.

993
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 3: You would think that maybe mil Tucker would be taking over,

994
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 3: but you're right about Tyson Summers.

995
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 2: It was pretty bad what was going on at Georgia Southern.

996
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 3: Moving on, we're gonna talk about Oregon State over two

997
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,399
Speaker 3: plus one thirty. You know, they take on cal Pauly.

998
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 3: Cal Pauly went from one to ten to five and

999
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 3: six last year, and then they're gonna go to Hawaii,

1000
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 3: which my prs say that they're going to be the

1001
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 3: Beavers minus three at Hawaii. So if you think that

1002
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 3: you can get cal Poly and you think that you

1003
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 3: can get that game down at Hawaii, then you're essentially

1004
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 3: sitting on two in Oregon State is over two plus

1005
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 3: one thirty?

1006
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 2: Did you land straight on two with the.

1007
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 3: Pr was it maybe one point eight, and that's where

1008
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 3: the plus one thirty comes from.

1009
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, my number was actually a little blow too, and

1010
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: I gave Oregon State a pretty decent bump, you know,

1011
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 1: year two after some growing pains with the new coach

1012
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: last year. Obviously they're gonna trend in that direction with

1013
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 1: everybody they bring back. But I don't have them a

1014
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 1: favorite at Hawaii, so it looks like it sounds like

1015
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: we have a pretty significant difference. I haven't really gone

1016
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: through Hawaii all that close, but I actually had them

1017
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 1: a dog in that game. So looking at their schedule

1018
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: outside of that game against FCF School, I don't really

1019
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,760
Speaker 1: know where another win comes the rest of the season.

1020
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 1: So I think as a team that looks like they

1021
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 1: should be, you know, pretty well improved, they're going to

1022
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 1: be a lot more competitive this year. But you know,

1023
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: looking at the PAC twelve skin, I d dog out

1024
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 1: them a double digit dog pretty much every game. And yeah,

1025
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 1: if they don't win the Hawaii game and then that

1026
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: cow Poly game, it's gonna be really tough to go

1027
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: over to.

1028
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: There's two different Hawaii teams here. We've got the Hawaii

1029
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 2: team that has Cole McDonald and then we have the

1030
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 2: beat up Cole McDonald that is bleeding profusely from the

1031
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 2: lower half of his body.

1032
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: So I did see that those so I guess I

1033
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: probably need to I need to adjust for that a

1034
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 1: little bit, I guess.

1035
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: So let's get into it.

1036
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 3: What's your raw PR on Washington in contrast to the

1037
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 3: rest of the Pac twelve, because I've been wanting to

1038
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: fade them all off season. I've been looking for a number,

1039
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 3: like I said, under ten minus one fifty. I haven't

1040
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 3: seen one pop up. I think I saw you get

1041
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 3: him at minus one fifty five, and there might have

1042
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 3: been a minus one forty. I think I saw you

1043
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: get it in. But Jacob Eason hasn't even won this job.

1044
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 3: Miles Gaskin has gone worst returning production rank in all of.

1045
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 2: FBS on defense. So have you guys taken anything on

1046
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 2: the over nine?

1047
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 3: I saw you guys posted at nine when a lot

1048
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: of other shops have a juice heavy under ten. So

1049
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 3: have you taken anything on the nine? And how is

1050
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 3: your PR in relation to Utah, Oregon and State.

1051
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 2: For in the back twelve.

1052
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've taken some money at over nine, and interestingly enough,

1053
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: we were going to open this eight and a half

1054
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: juiced under until we looked around in town. And when

1055
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 1: I saw the numbers in town, I saw ten at CG.

1056
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: I pretty much immediately walked outside and bet under ten twice.

1057
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: I think it's obviously a really well coached team, and

1058
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: I think you can argue the best program in the

1059
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 1: PAC twelve right now. But I dropped them down. They're

1060
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 1: now in that range. I've got them right around where

1061
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: Utah and Oregon are. They're pretty much all closer together

1062
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 1: to start the year. Looking at their defensive losses, I mean,

1063
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 1: losing nine guys from that defense, I know they're probably

1064
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 1: just going to reload to some degree so much NFL

1065
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: talent I think in the secondary and upfront that they lost,

1066
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 1: it's just going to be really tough to replace. And

1067
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: when I'm going through looking at teams for win totals,

1068
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: I'm looking for, you know, significant production losses coupled with

1069
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 1: maybe a team that's coming off a disappointing year, maybe

1070
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 1: doesn't really have any positive momentum program wise, and Washington

1071
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 1: definitely fits the bill with that. They were, you know,

1072
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 1: pretty underwhelming last year. They just didn't really click like

1073
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 1: they used to. It didn't seem like things were, you know,

1074
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: trending in the right direction, and now they got to

1075
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: replace Browning and Gaskin and all these guys on defense.

1076
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of question marks, so I'll

1077
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 1: be highly surprised if I lose over ten, and I

1078
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 1: think there's a pretty good chance at worst case, I'm

1079
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 1: looking at a push.

1080
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, And you know they're losing close games

1081
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 2: these days. They didn't used to do that with Petersondal.

1082
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 2: So you can hear it here.

1083
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 3: If you see a Washington out of ten, even though

1084
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 3: it may be juice, the under is the way because

1085
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 3: I've been looking to hit that and thanks to my

1086
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 3: buddy here, mister Linda Train, he blew up the market

1087
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 3: just this past weekend for everybody else.

1088
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 2: So if you can get under ten, I would best

1089
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 2: hit that because it's probably not going to be there

1090
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 2: very long. We're going to wrap up talking about Notre Dame.

1091
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 3: We've done the five Power conferences and we have to

1092
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 3: discuss Notre Dame because we came out here with a nine.

1093
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 2: You shaded into the overt minus one forty five. It's fading.

1094
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 3: Notre Dame futures the way to go with trips to

1095
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 3: Georgia and Michigan on their schedule.

1096
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: This was actually a team that was really easy to

1097
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: make because looking at last year, they had an eighty

1098
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,399
Speaker 1: seven pr in twenty seventeen started at eighty seven, last

1099
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 1: year ended at eighty eight. Average was eighty seven. So

1100
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 1: for me, I know that's about where they need to be.

1101
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,399
Speaker 1: So I think I dropped them maybe a point or two.

1102
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,720
Speaker 1: But this year pretty favorable schedule. It looks like outside

1103
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 1: those two games against Jordan Michigan, really not too many

1104
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: tough tests. So I do like them not to make

1105
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 1: the playoffs. But I got to think that the numbers

1106
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: would be astronomical on the no. So you can find

1107
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: a cheap price that would be a pretty good bet.

1108
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1109
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 3: I mean, when half your schedule is the ACC, you're

1110
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 3: going to have some trash games. But I will say this,

1111
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 3: Notre Dame made the playoff last year, but they will.

1112
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 3: I do not think they will ever make the playoff

1113
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 3: with one loss because they do not have a conference

1114
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 3: championship game with the way it's set up today. They

1115
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 3: want people want that extra game to be played, They

1116
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 3: want that conference championship to be in the back, and

1117
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 3: I just think that unless maybe the strength of schedule

1118
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 3: is just out the roof that an eleven to one

1119
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,879
Speaker 3: team that has for Notre Dame that has half their

1120
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 3: schedule against the trash part of the ACC, you're not

1121
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 3: going to get into the playoffs. So it was a

1122
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 3: good run for them last year, but with the schedule

1123
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 3: they have this year, I don't see it happening and

1124
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 3: so be tended to completely manageable.

1125
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 2: The shade on the over for the nine is completely justified. Matt.

1126
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 3: I really appreciate your time coming on on the podcast

1127
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 3: talking to us about all the wind totals.

1128
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 2: Do you have anything else for us?

1129
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: Yeah? Man, I appreciate you having me. You know. The

1130
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: only thing I think I'd probably say is it's July

1131
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 1: fifth right now. A lot of this stuff we're talking

1132
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 1: about is very preliminary. It's important to note for guys

1133
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: that are doing this, don't get too hung up on

1134
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 1: what you've decided in June and July and the teams

1135
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: you like, the teams you don't like. You know, leave

1136
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 1: yourself open to looking through the information. There's gonna be

1137
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff coming out in July and August.

1138
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: Pay attention to what's going on. Because there's a lot

1139
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: of new information that can come up that should probably

1140
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: change your opinion on some teams. So I think be careful,

1141
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: don't go too crazy on the win to this early,

1142
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,760
Speaker 1: and yeah, just be open to maybe make an adjustment

1143
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 1: and decide and maybe a team you thought you liked

1144
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: the first isn't as good or vice versa.

1145
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 3: That's great advice for Matt, because I completely agree. The

1146
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 3: first two or three weeks of college football, I'm not

1147
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 3: spending as much money and I'm not betting as much

1148
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 3: money because I don't have a clear vibe on the

1149
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 3: team and I'm quick to adjust power ratings. I'm quick,

1150
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,800
Speaker 3: like we talked about Florida State, that first game is

1151
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 3: going to tell us a lot, so really good advice

1152
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 3: there from Matt.

1153
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 2: Matt, thanks for joining us. That's all we have today.

1154
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 3: I hope you guys enjoyed the first college football edition

1155
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 3: of the Action Network podcast. To be sure to subscribe

1156
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: on iTunes, find us on Spotify, Make sure and listen once,

1157
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 3: always download twice. My partner Stucky, He'll be back in

1158
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 3: the driver's seat

1159
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 2: Next week as we welcome another special guest, peace Out