WEBVTT - Lockheed Martin's Tim Cahill Talks Defense Capabilities

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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<v Speaker 2>Podcasts.

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<v Speaker 3>Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>News. We're going to switch gears a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, from a one sector media to another, and that

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<v Speaker 1>would be defense. Lockheed Martin unveiling a new missile interceptor

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<v Speaker 1>designed to outperform its most capable Patriot variant. This, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>as the U.S. Army seeks to expand... its air defense

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<v Speaker 1>capabilities against increasingly sophisticated threats like hypersonic missiles.

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<v Speaker 2>We have a million questions. We're going to head to Washington, D.C.

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<v Speaker 2>for some answers and to Tim Cahill. He is president

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<v Speaker 2>of Missiles and Fire Control at the $ 118 billion market

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<v Speaker 2>cap defense and aerospace company. You know it well, Lockheed Martin.

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<v Speaker 2>He joins Tim and me on this Monday. Tim, so

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<v Speaker 2>great to have you here with us. Tell us about

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<v Speaker 2>PAC-3 EDGE, what's new, what's significant, what our audience needs

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<v Speaker 2>to know and understand about this.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, absolutely. And thank you for having me today. It's

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<v Speaker 3>a pleasure. I'm here on the floor of a USA conference.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of excitement here today. And yes, we

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<v Speaker 3>are introducing our next variant of our PAC-3 missiles. So

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<v Speaker 3>you all know about the PAC-3 MSE. I think by

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<v Speaker 3>now we've heard about it in Ukraine. You've heard it

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<v Speaker 3>about in the Middle East, the most capable. air and

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<v Speaker 3>missile defense interceptor in the world. We're now introducing the

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<v Speaker 3>brand new generation of that, the PAC-3 Edge. And PAC-3

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<v Speaker 3>Edge is designed to go higher, faster, and further than

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<v Speaker 3>PAC-3 MSE. And what it's really designed to do is

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<v Speaker 3>to take on those threats that our military and the

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<v Speaker 3>military of our allies are going to face here in

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<v Speaker 3>the next 3, 5, 10 years. So it is us

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<v Speaker 3>getting out ahead of what the threat is going to do,

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<v Speaker 3>despite the fact that, of course, the MSC is doing

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<v Speaker 3>an incredible job with today's current threats.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Tim, the current threats today, and especially what we're

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<v Speaker 1>learning with regard to the war in Iran and Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>invasion of Ukraine, has to do with more rudimentary design,

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<v Speaker 1>drones that maybe cost tens of thousands of dollars that

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes interceptors are used to intercept. Can you sort of

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<v Speaker 1>explain what is being used currently to intercept? defend against

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<v Speaker 1>those types of threats versus what this is meant to

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<v Speaker 1>defend from?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, happy to. And you're right. That isn't what PAC-3

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<v Speaker 3>Edge is all about. Of course, it can hit anything

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<v Speaker 3>that flies, but that's not where we really want to

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<v Speaker 3>use it. So what's being used today is a variety

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<v Speaker 3>of systems. And of course, whether it be our troops

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<v Speaker 3>in the Middle East or whether it be the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 3>in Europe, are using some very creative methods. And it's

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<v Speaker 3>everything from shooting them down from the ground with rifles,

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<v Speaker 3>to shooting them down with F-16s, to shooting them down

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<v Speaker 3>with small missiles. And if you have to, if you

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<v Speaker 3>have a drone coming after a very high value target,

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<v Speaker 3>you might choose to use a higher end missile, but

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<v Speaker 3>only because you absolutely have to. But fundamentally, what we

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<v Speaker 3>are doing is trying to give the department and our

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<v Speaker 3>allies a much broader range of options. And so that's

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<v Speaker 3>why here a couple of months ago, we introduced, for example, Morpheus,

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<v Speaker 3>a very low cost drone that flies out and essentially

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<v Speaker 3>zaps the incoming UASs by frying their electronics. And then

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<v Speaker 3>you come back, you charge it up, send it out

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<v Speaker 3>and do it again, as well as smaller missiles that

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<v Speaker 3>we put in what we call a grizzly containerized launcher,

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<v Speaker 3>But they're much cheaper missiles, much smaller, much easier to reload,

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<v Speaker 3>if you will. That's the kind of things that you

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<v Speaker 3>want to put on these less expensive threats. And so effectively,

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<v Speaker 3>it's about taking the missile or system or drone or

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<v Speaker 3>gun or whatever it is and putting it on the

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<v Speaker 3>appropriate or putting the appropriate effector on the appropriate threat.

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<v Speaker 2>What kind of production numbers are you expecting, not only

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<v Speaker 2>with Pac-3 Edge, but also with your PAC-3 ACE. I

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<v Speaker 2>think you've made some announcements recently. So give us an idea.

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<v Speaker 2>Are there some updates? And kind of plays into what

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<v Speaker 2>kind of demand flow are we seeing in an environment

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<v Speaker 2>that is increasingly a lot of places around the world

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<v Speaker 2>at war?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's a great question. And so, you know, as

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<v Speaker 3>we've talked about and the department's talked about, we're for

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<v Speaker 3>PAC-3 MSEs. So let's start there. We're rapidly going toward

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<v Speaker 3>the thousands. So we're going to go to triple or

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<v Speaker 3>quadruple the current rates. And that is going extremely well,

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<v Speaker 3>by the way. The department has been an incredible partner

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<v Speaker 3>with us to figure out everything that could be slowing

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<v Speaker 3>us down and helping us go faster. So then you

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<v Speaker 3>take PAC-3 ACE, which you mentioned, a perfect example of

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<v Speaker 3>kind of the lower cost, but not all the way

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<v Speaker 3>down into drone territory yet. But that one will be

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<v Speaker 3>about two-thirds capability and about, say, one-half the cost. So

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<v Speaker 3>the intent would be that we will produce those first

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<v Speaker 3>in Europe, likely perhaps the Middle East. And then those

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<v Speaker 3>are going to be, we expect to be in the

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<v Speaker 3>thousands as well as we ramp up production. Now, then

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<v Speaker 3>that brings us to PAC-3 Edge. What we would expect

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<v Speaker 3>is that PAC-3 Edge would start slowly, but of course

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<v Speaker 3>we'll work with the army to see what the right

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<v Speaker 3>numbers are, but eventually we'll be capable of producing hundreds

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<v Speaker 3>or thousands of PAC-3 Edges as the market demands it.

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<v Speaker 3>So I would expect us to be producing all of

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<v Speaker 3>these systems in very large quantities, perhaps at different phases,

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<v Speaker 3>depending on what's needed and what the mission dictates.

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<v Speaker 2>So not 1,000 or 2,000 a year, but you're talking

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<v Speaker 2>tens or hundreds of thousands a year.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that correct? So it'll be from MSE will be

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<v Speaker 3>in the thousands, in the low thousands. We would expect

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<v Speaker 3>ACE to be in the thousands. EDGE could be produced

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<v Speaker 3>in the thousands as well, if that's what the orders say. demand,

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<v Speaker 3>if you will. Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, given the large number of suppliers needed to make

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<v Speaker 1>a single pack three, what are the biggest choke points

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<v Speaker 1>in production that perhaps keeps you from reaching that DOD

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<v Speaker 1>goal even sooner?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. So you might imagine that, of course, as you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it takes every part to build a missile, so anything

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<v Speaker 3>can hold us up. But to answer your question fairly,

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<v Speaker 3>usually the more complex the part, the more that you

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<v Speaker 3>are at risk of something holding it up. So solid

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<v Speaker 3>rocket motors, important complex part, that tends to be something

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<v Speaker 3>that we watch real careful and it's easy to get

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<v Speaker 3>behind on. Anything in this circuitry area, advanced circuitry, for example, seekers,

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<v Speaker 3>which are also highly complex. Those are the things that

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<v Speaker 3>we tend to focus the most on because those are

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<v Speaker 3>the ones that can hold us up quickly just because

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<v Speaker 3>there's so many individual parts that have to go into them.

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<v Speaker 3>But we're working those awful hard and working every single

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<v Speaker 3>supplier dual sourcing at least every potential supplier to make

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<v Speaker 3>sure that one can pick up the slack if another

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<v Speaker 3>one doesn't. And I will tell you that our suppliers

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<v Speaker 3>have really stepped up. They are investing as well to

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<v Speaker 3>the tune of hundreds of millions to billions of dollars,

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<v Speaker 3>depending on their scale. And so this is a team

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<v Speaker 3>effort with the department. Everybody's in on driving this production

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<v Speaker 3>up fast.

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<v Speaker 2>I have to tell you, whenever we talk about things

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<v Speaker 2>like this kind of segment, we get viewers and terminal

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<v Speaker 2>users and folks who are like, How much does this

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<v Speaker 2>thing cost? We're all taxpayers. We're paying for this stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>How much does, I don't know, give us an idea

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<v Speaker 2>of this latest update, the PAC-3 Edge? What does it cost?

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<v Speaker 3>So I would expect PAC-3 Edge to be just a

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<v Speaker 3>little more than an MSE, which is on the order

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<v Speaker 3>of several million dollars is what's usually publicized. And so,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, right now what we are doing throughout the

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<v Speaker 3>entire pandemic portfolio, if you will, so all the munitions

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<v Speaker 3>that we build, is we are rapidly applying high technology

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<v Speaker 3>production to keep the costs contained and to keep them down.

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<v Speaker 3>And so that's everything from AI and additive manufacturing through

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<v Speaker 3>robotics and building robot cells, if you will, that individually

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<v Speaker 3>build these things and bring these costs down. What's interesting

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<v Speaker 3>is while you say, well, the costs are pretty high

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<v Speaker 3>and we're keeping those costs pretty level, what's also happening

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<v Speaker 3>is we are investing billions and billions of dollars at

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<v Speaker 3>the same time into increasing the production and the capability.

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<v Speaker 3>And so the U.S. government is not paying for all that,

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<v Speaker 3>which is something that they used to do. And so

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<v Speaker 3>all that is coming back to still a production level,

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<v Speaker 3>high production level, and a cost that is staying fairly even.

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<v Speaker 2>But scaling the missiles, should that bring down the cost

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<v Speaker 2>in the future?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I think the production levels are going to

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<v Speaker 3>bring down the cost in some senses. In other ones,

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<v Speaker 3>what you'll do is trade that cost for investment in

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<v Speaker 3>both future technology as well as high production of what

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<v Speaker 3>you're building right now. So, and again, in the end,

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<v Speaker 3>the US government will only end up buying the recurring

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<v Speaker 3>cost of the missile, if you will. All those billions

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<v Speaker 3>that go into production and technology We're footing the bill

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<v Speaker 3>for all of that. So in aggregate, the taxpayer is

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<v Speaker 3>actually doing much better under the new policies with the

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<v Speaker 3>department than they were before.

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<v Speaker 1>So apart from the U.S. government, who do you expect

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<v Speaker 1>customers of this to be?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so the customers I think right now initially will

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<v Speaker 3>be the U.S. government, of course, for this high-tech version. Eventually,

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<v Speaker 3>we would expect that all of the Patriot users are

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<v Speaker 3>going to want to have Edge. And then it'll be

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<v Speaker 3>up to us to work with the U.S. government to

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<v Speaker 3>decide on the timing and when that would be available.

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<v Speaker 3>But we're anticipating that this is going to be part

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<v Speaker 3>of the global defense network, just like the MSC is today.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious about low-cost interceptors and the startups that get

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of attention right now, the Andurils of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>for example. They're among the companies leading the low-cost interceptor charge.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there enough room for all to play here? Will

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<v Speaker 1>the primes enter the market too?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it probably is for a while and we'll see

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<v Speaker 3>since the numbers increase every single day, it seems. But

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<v Speaker 3>there is a lot of demand out there in the world.

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<v Speaker 3>This is absolutely true. I think if we can build

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<v Speaker 3>a nice, mix of low cost and the higher capable systems,

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<v Speaker 3>that's probably the right thing to go into a conflict with.

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<v Speaker 3>And frankly, that's the way to deter your potential adversaries

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<v Speaker 3>these days, to have that entire myth. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>that for a while, there's going to be enough there.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that the trade-off is going to be Remember,

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<v Speaker 3>nothing comes for free. And so when you reduce the cost,

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<v Speaker 3>you reduce capability. So finding the sweet spot where it's affordable,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's also fully capable. It also can withstand the

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<v Speaker 3>launch environment. It can withstand whatever the... adversary throws at you,

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<v Speaker 3>that's important too. And so that's why we've come up

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<v Speaker 3>with things like PAC three A's, which we think are

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<v Speaker 3>a nice sweet spot that provide both.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, how would you just, just for our viewers and

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<v Speaker 1>listeners who, who might not follow this very closely, how

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<v Speaker 1>would you distinguish low cost versus sort of higher cost

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<v Speaker 1>where the primes play right now versus where the startups

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<v Speaker 1>play right now? How would you distinguish that from a

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<v Speaker 1>cost perspective and from a capabilities perspective?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's great. The, um, And it is hard. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's not just for those who don't follow it every day.

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<v Speaker 3>This is a debate that we have all the time.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's the easiest way to do this is

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<v Speaker 3>to match kind of two things. The value of the

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<v Speaker 3>thing that somebody is throwing against you, because you prefer

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<v Speaker 3>not to have a massive economic mismatch. So they throw

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<v Speaker 3>something cheap, you throw something expensive. The other thing is

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<v Speaker 3>what is that item protecting, right? So if you're protecting

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of lives, a lot of very expensive hardware, um,

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<v Speaker 3>command posts, things like that. You want to have something really,

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<v Speaker 3>really good protecting that. So you want the capability and

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<v Speaker 3>you're not so worried about paying a bit extra for that. Well,

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, if you're the adversary trying to destroy that,

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<v Speaker 3>you're throwing something pretty capable at it as well, because

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<v Speaker 3>it's a lot of value to destroy that particular target.

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<v Speaker 3>If on the other hand, you're talking about something that

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<v Speaker 3>is a drone that's flying with a very small explosive,

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<v Speaker 3>that's only going to do a little bit of damage.

0:11:57.780 --> 0:12:00.079
<v Speaker 3>you don't want to go put expensive systems on that.

0:12:00.140 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 3>You want to knock that down with something cheaper. What's important,

0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.600
<v Speaker 3>I think, is that we innovate and make sure that

0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:08.160
<v Speaker 3>both the U.S. and their allies have that entire mix

0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:11.860
<v Speaker 3>of defensive systems that can counter that entire mix of

0:12:11.940 --> 0:12:14.179
<v Speaker 3>offensive systems. And that is the one thing that changes,

0:12:14.500 --> 0:12:17.210
<v Speaker 3>that has changed, I should say, that spectrum has broadened

0:12:17.250 --> 0:12:18.170
<v Speaker 3>over the last few years.

0:12:18.510 --> 0:12:19.829
<v Speaker 2>You know, one thing I want to ask you, Tim,

0:12:19.850 --> 0:12:22.090
<v Speaker 2>we spend so much time here at Bloomberg talking about

0:12:22.890 --> 0:12:25.959
<v Speaker 2>innovation disruption. We talk, obviously, as you would expect, and

0:12:25.980 --> 0:12:28.940
<v Speaker 2>you even mentioned artificial intelligence, but this stuff is happening

0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:32.939
<v Speaker 2>so fast. And we have seen warfare and how wars

0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:38.420
<v Speaker 2>are fought change increasingly faster as well. What do you

0:12:38.470 --> 0:12:41.050
<v Speaker 2>think an investing audience needs to understand about what's going

0:12:41.150 --> 0:12:42.270
<v Speaker 2>on in defense right now?

0:12:42.290 --> 0:12:46.970
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think, well, it's really clear that the power

0:12:46.990 --> 0:12:49.589
<v Speaker 3>of artificial intelligence is incredible, and we are using it

0:12:50.059 --> 0:12:53.420
<v Speaker 3>really throughout our industry, and we'll continue to do that.

0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:55.599
<v Speaker 3>And for exactly the same reasons that you're talking about.

0:12:56.020 --> 0:12:59.429
<v Speaker 3>The first of all, you can reduce the development and

0:12:59.470 --> 0:13:02.670
<v Speaker 3>production cycles very, very fast by using that kind of technology.

0:13:02.730 --> 0:13:06.110
<v Speaker 3>You can discover what issues you have far before you

0:13:06.130 --> 0:13:09.710
<v Speaker 3>might've discovered them before, make corrections in your design, simulate

0:13:09.750 --> 0:13:12.630
<v Speaker 3>things like you could never simulate before. All of that

0:13:12.700 --> 0:13:17.060
<v Speaker 3>contributes to faster cycle, faster delivery of technology. And then

0:13:17.100 --> 0:13:19.989
<v Speaker 3>when you get into things like the actual production, Things

0:13:20.030 --> 0:13:24.250
<v Speaker 3>like AI additive manufacturing, it allows you to quickly produce things,

0:13:24.610 --> 0:13:27.470
<v Speaker 3>quickly discover where your defects are, because that's the thing

0:13:27.490 --> 0:13:30.010
<v Speaker 3>that gets you is a defect that follows you down

0:13:30.050 --> 0:13:31.770
<v Speaker 3>the chain and you don't find it until later on.

0:13:31.809 --> 0:13:33.810
<v Speaker 3>What you want to do is find it the instant

0:13:33.830 --> 0:13:36.510
<v Speaker 3>that it's created. So things like AI could do that

0:13:36.570 --> 0:13:38.950
<v Speaker 3>for you. They can look at a part and instantly

0:13:39.030 --> 0:13:42.150
<v Speaker 3>tell you the tiniest, tiniest flaw that you have in

0:13:42.170 --> 0:13:44.540
<v Speaker 3>that part and you go fix it right now. And

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.520
<v Speaker 3>then you combine that with robotic systems that can actually

0:13:47.580 --> 0:13:50.750
<v Speaker 3>make the repair instantly Now you have magic. And so

0:13:51.130 --> 0:13:53.740
<v Speaker 3>everywhere you see AI showing up in the commercial world

0:13:53.780 --> 0:13:56.819
<v Speaker 3>in your daily lives, there's an application somewhere within the

0:13:56.860 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 3>defense industry, and it's helping us go faster. And we

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.559
<v Speaker 3>are investing, all of us are investing tremendously in these capabilities.

0:14:03.620 --> 0:14:05.300
<v Speaker 1>Hey, Tim, just in the last 30 seconds that we

0:14:05.350 --> 0:14:07.150
<v Speaker 1>have with you, we started off by talking about the

0:14:07.250 --> 0:14:11.929
<v Speaker 1>differences with the new PAC-3 Edge. What about the next iteration?

0:14:12.500 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 1>of the PAC-3 very briefly, what will it focus on?

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:16.600
<v Speaker 2>I just got this done.

0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 3>I know, but you know, of course, we're always working

0:14:19.220 --> 0:14:22.220
<v Speaker 3>on the next one. In fact, 10 years ago, when

0:14:22.260 --> 0:14:25.500
<v Speaker 3>I had the job of building these particularly, we were

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:27.910
<v Speaker 3>starting to work on this. So everything is going to

0:14:28.090 --> 0:14:30.150
<v Speaker 3>happen just in the same kind of path, I think.

0:14:30.230 --> 0:14:33.770
<v Speaker 3>Things are going to get faster, further, higher, more responsive,

0:14:34.150 --> 0:14:37.930
<v Speaker 3>more AI. The systems are going to recognize when they're

0:14:37.950 --> 0:14:40.710
<v Speaker 3>trying to be tricked by an adversary. I think you're

0:14:40.730 --> 0:14:43.090
<v Speaker 3>just going to see this happening faster and faster. The

0:14:43.130 --> 0:14:46.030
<v Speaker 3>systems are going to be more adaptable. They'll probably look

0:14:46.070 --> 0:14:50.840
<v Speaker 3>about the same, long and pointy, but the actual intelligence

0:14:50.900 --> 0:14:53.590
<v Speaker 3>in them is incredible, and it's getting more so every day.

0:14:54.150 --> 0:14:56.270
<v Speaker 2>All right, Tim Cahill, thank you so much. President of

0:14:56.650 --> 0:15:00.180
<v Speaker 2>Missiles and Fire Control at Lockheed Martin joining us from Washington, D.C.