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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Bringing you all of the information you need today, not

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Speaker 2: just Wall Street, which boy does not feel good right now,

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Speaker 2: and that's why we stay in touch with Charlie throughout

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Speaker 2: the fastest show in politics to see what's happening on

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Speaker 2: this job's day.

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Speaker 3: Of course, it has its own look.

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Speaker 2: The news about Donald Trump breaking a short time ago,

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Speaker 2: we'll get into this.

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Speaker 3: He is not going to jail.

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Speaker 2: If you listen to this broadcast or watch us on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: you knew that already. But he will enter the White

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Speaker 2: House with a criminal record sentencing a short time ago.

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Speaker 2: This is the New York hush money case, the Stormy

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Speaker 2: Daniels case, sentence to no jail time. We'll have more

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Speaker 2: on that coming up with Wendy Benjamin s want to

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Speaker 2: dig further into jobs though this is big stuff today

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Speaker 2: obviously looking at the market reaction and trying to get

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Speaker 2: a sense of exactly where this job market is as

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden leaves the White House. That's the last one.

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Speaker 2: That's the last report you're going to get. We spent

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Speaker 2: some time earlier today knowing that this number blew the

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Speaker 2: doors off here the most jobs since March, unemployment rate

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Speaker 2: down unexpectedly. The Acting Labor Secretary, Julie Sue spoke with

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Speaker 2: us earlier on Bloomberg with Katie Greifeld.

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Speaker 4: Let's listen today's numbers, following on the heels of consistent, steady,

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Speaker 4: stable growth, sixteen point seven million jobs sin since President

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Speaker 4: came into office. He is the only president that has

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Speaker 4: had positive job growth every single month of his presidency.

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Speaker 4: And that is what we hand off because we knew

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Speaker 4: that that's what the American people deserved, and we knew

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Speaker 4: that if we focused on what was good for workers first,

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Speaker 4: that we could have recovery like no other. And that's

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Speaker 4: certainly what this month's numbers reflect.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I believe we're looking at forty eight months with

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Speaker 5: consecutive payroll gains, and that of course is going in

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Speaker 5: data going back to nineteen thirty nine. I do want

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Speaker 5: to talk about the manufacturing sector because if you're looking

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Speaker 5: for some pain. You're going to find it there in

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Speaker 5: the manufacturing sector shedding jobs again in December. What do

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Speaker 5: you think is going on specifically in that industry. Can

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Speaker 5: we draw a line between those job losses to all

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Speaker 5: of the different labor disputes that we've been seeing.

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Speaker 4: No, I would draw the line to really decades of

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Speaker 4: economic policies, trade policies that have not favored workers and

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Speaker 4: of commitment to jobs, which is also why President Biden

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Speaker 4: came in and said we're going to invest in manufacturing.

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Speaker 4: As a result, the recovery that we've seen since twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty one is the only economic recovery in this century

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Speaker 4: in which the manufacturing sector actually bounced back from a

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Speaker 4: crisis like the one we inherited, and so there's more

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Speaker 4: work to do, there's no question about it. And we

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Speaker 4: know that workers in states where manufacturing has been the

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Speaker 4: foundation need continued investments, and there's some uncertainly about that

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Speaker 4: because the incoming administration has raised questions about whether those

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Speaker 4: investments would continue. But what we've seen is that doing that,

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Speaker 4: having the Inflation Reduction Act right, having investments in bringing

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Speaker 4: manufacturing back to the United States into our heartland is

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Speaker 4: the right way to build the economy.

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Speaker 2: Julie Sue's last job's day, the acting Labor Secretary with

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Speaker 2: us earlier today on Bloomberg with the ambience of the

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Speaker 2: fire alarm ringing at the labor department?

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Speaker 3: Is there symbolism there?

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Speaker 6: By?

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Speaker 2: The way can we get an indoor studio for the

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Speaker 2: next labor secretary? It was like three degrees when she

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Speaker 2: was out there in the snow and the wind, and

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Speaker 2: the whole thing is it's not like that at every

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Speaker 2: agency they're always out on the porch. Right, there's beautiful

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Speaker 2: shot on TV, but the poor secretary ends up freezing.

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Speaker 2: Maybe there's symbolism there too. We better ask Anna Wong,

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Speaker 2: who is our winner today on the Price is Right,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics.

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Speaker 3: You came closest.

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Speaker 2: You have the highest consensus, highest number in the consensus

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Speaker 2: when it comes to this job before.

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Speaker 3: What do you know that no one.

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Speaker 2: Else does too?

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Speaker 7: Job market is warming the winter around us, so that's

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Speaker 7: the only hot things. So that we track high frequency

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Speaker 7: data and that data. When I saw that data a

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Speaker 7: couple of weeks ago, I was surprised by this broad based,

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Speaker 7: unseasonablely strong hiring across sector. So this is why we

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Speaker 7: made this forecast. Our forecast is always made based on

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Speaker 7: actual data, and so I think there is genuine signs

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Speaker 7: that the labor market is stabilizing. And Joe, you know me,

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Speaker 7: I have been pretty down in the labor market for

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Speaker 7: most of last year. I would still say that, you know,

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Speaker 7: the non farm payroll is still overstating the degree of hiring.

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Speaker 7: An in the next month report, we're going to see

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Speaker 7: benchmark revisions which will be downward revising most of the

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Speaker 7: data last year. Nonetheless, I will say that this report

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Speaker 7: is genuinely good and it would be rational to be

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Speaker 7: hopeful about the future.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, the market's freaked out. The S and P

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Speaker 2: five down two percent, same as the Nasdaq. The VIX

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Speaker 2: is up ten percent. Are we given up on interest

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Speaker 2: rate cuts?

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Speaker 7: I think the I think the fix in the stock

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Speaker 7: market is reacting to definitely the fixing come traders pricing

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Speaker 7: out one whole seven exactly. So, so immediately after the

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Speaker 7: payrolls report, the traders were prising out one rate cut

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Speaker 7: out of twenty twenty five. And now the earliest for

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Speaker 7: a rate cut is September now, so it would be

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Speaker 7: a pretty long pause.

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Speaker 2: What's inside this report that has your attention when it

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Speaker 2: comes to ages, when it comes to participation.

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Speaker 8: What should we know?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that, you know, the private sector employment

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Speaker 7: jump in the household survey really caught my eyes because

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Speaker 7: I thought that the household survey was going to show

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Speaker 7: more weakness because it doesn't suffer from the overstatement problems

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Speaker 7: measurement problems as the establishment survey. But we saw actually

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Speaker 7: a very strong showing of private sector hiring, in particular

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Speaker 7: the increase in hiring and retail trade sector. And I

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Speaker 7: have to wonder whether some of that reflect that firms

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Speaker 7: are front running the tariffs, and we have seen anecdotes

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Speaker 7: of you know, firms stocking up before expectations of higher

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Speaker 7: rate tariffs, and therefore that's basically boosting the logistics sector

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Speaker 7: and retail sector.

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Speaker 2: So front running like that though, can lead to weakness

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Speaker 2: later in the years.

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Speaker 9: Yes, exactly.

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Speaker 7: So that if that that's the reason why there was

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Speaker 7: such a strong showing in the trade and logistics sector,

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Speaker 7: then one shouldn't expect this increase to be endurable.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating. You close the border, you conduct a mass deportation,

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Speaker 2: and what happens to the job market, then.

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Speaker 7: Well, you know. So if everything stays constant, as an

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Speaker 7: economist would say, then if you reduce the labor force,

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Speaker 7: you would actually tend to reduce the unemployment rate. However,

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Speaker 7: it really depends on the details, which is where do

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Speaker 7: these numigrants tend to work? So I suppose that they

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Speaker 7: tend to work in construction sector, which is undergoing a downturn,

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Speaker 7: particularly in the South, then a reduction in the labor

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Speaker 7: supply geared toward the construction sector actually would not really

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Speaker 7: boost prices in the construction sector given the slack in

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Speaker 7: the market there.

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Speaker 2: There's been a greater conversation, and I don't know if

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Speaker 2: this come to the form of legislation or not about

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Speaker 2: work vices as a new element of the debate. Let's

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Speaker 2: say lawmakers crack down on border security but also raise

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Speaker 2: the cap on H one b's. Would it have a

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Speaker 2: meaningful impact on the job market or would that be

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Speaker 2: isolated to the tech sector and not show up in

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Speaker 2: national numbers like these?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean from a pure economous perspective, so the

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Speaker 7: economy needs more immigrants in sector that's experiencing shortages, and

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Speaker 7: also it would be great for the economy to receive

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Speaker 7: more immigrants in sectors that innovate. So in high tech

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Speaker 7: sphere we have a lot of form born immigrants who

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Speaker 7: are contributing significantly to TFP productivity increase.

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Speaker 2: So I think that you ask Elon Musk right, right.

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Speaker 7: Exactly, So raising the cap so allow more to come

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Speaker 7: in actually would be great for the economy.

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Speaker 2: And would actually show up in numbers. Though, would you

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Speaker 2: see something in the household employment surveys where you'd actually

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Speaker 2: make a dent in the data on a jobs day

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Speaker 2: like this.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think not yet. So what we have seen

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Speaker 7: is a labor force decline in the last in November

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Speaker 7: and October that's more driven by cyclical hiring weaknesses and construction,

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Speaker 7: sexual leisure and hospitality, which seem to have reversed in December.

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Speaker 7: But I would say that the first sign of contraction

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Speaker 7: and labor supply would be more due to cyclical forces

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Speaker 7: like slow down and hiring rather than deportations.

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Speaker 2: Anna Wong always a pleasure. It's a clinic with Anna Wong,

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Speaker 2: whose number in the consensus was the highest. We should

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Speaker 2: have played plinko while we have the chance with Anna.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg balance of power podcasts. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm e's durn

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Speaker 1: on Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York's station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 9: It looks like a labor market that's in pretty good

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Speaker 9: shape as a new administration gets ready to come in.

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Speaker 9: Not just the two hundred and fifty six thousand on payrolls,

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Speaker 9: but an unemployment rate that went down to four point

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Speaker 9: one percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's obviously this has been a difficult time for

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Speaker 2: forecasting all the way around, and it's an opportunity to

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Speaker 2: spend some time with Ben Harris, who is with us

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Speaker 2: at the desk here in Washington, vice president director Economic

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Speaker 2: Studies Program at Brooking's former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury

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Speaker 2: for Economic Policy.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back. It's great to see you. Happy jobs Day,

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Speaker 3: Happy job say.

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Speaker 2: At least we're not outside shivering with Julie suit exactly.

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Speaker 2: People were so far off on this, I will say,

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Speaker 2: Anna Wong at the highest number in the consensus at

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics, how come we can't get close to these

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Speaker 2: It's not just this month where we're just far off

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Speaker 2: the mark in the market.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 10: So when we're talking about payrolls, I think one of

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Speaker 10: the things that makes it so difficult is immigration. And

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Speaker 10: research coming out of Brooking showed that when we're getting

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Speaker 10: these really high payroll prints at the beginning part of

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Speaker 10: the recovery, one of the reasons why you could see

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Speaker 10: the high prints was because we had so many people

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Speaker 10: coming into the country, both seeking asylum and through illegal means,

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Speaker 10: and so I think it really complicates things. I mean,

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Speaker 10: it could mean we'll see an extra one hundred thousand

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Speaker 10: jobs in a month that we just didn't anticipate on

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Speaker 10: the household side. So for the unemployment rate, that's just

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Speaker 10: a story of non response. And you saw this coming

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Speaker 10: out of Governor Bowman's comments from the other day where

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Speaker 10: she said, look, we just can't rely on the U

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Speaker 10: three like we used to. And this is true of

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Speaker 10: surveys across the spectrum, whether we're talking about the survey

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Speaker 10: of consumer finances coming out of the FED or we're

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Speaker 10: talking about consumer confidence. People just don't answer surveys the

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Speaker 10: way they used to, and I think that makes forecasting

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Speaker 10: that much more difficult.

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Speaker 9: Okay, So forecasting is tough, but then you get the

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Speaker 9: data and it paints a story for those who have

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Speaker 9: to make decisions around it, like the Federal Reserve. The

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Speaker 9: market today is reading this data as a sign that

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Speaker 9: this is not an economy that needs the FED to

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Speaker 9: ease policy as they have been doing. Some on the

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Speaker 9: street are suggesting no cuts this year. Perhaps a height

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Speaker 9: could be back on the table. How do you see it?

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Speaker 10: Bent, Yeah, So the way that markets seem to be

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Speaker 10: looking at this is that we will be in a

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Speaker 10: period of an elongated pause and the Fed will need

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Speaker 10: some sort of drastic data print to push us off that.

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Speaker 10: So you either need to see something happened on the

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Speaker 10: inflation side to get us back into the hiking cycle,

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Speaker 10: or potentially, you know, we'll need to see several prints

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Speaker 10: of weakness in order to see cuts that might materialize.

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Speaker 10: Right now, I think markets are expecting cuts either in

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Speaker 10: the summer or potentially in the early fall in the

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Speaker 10: September meeting, But for right now, it feels like we're

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Speaker 10: an elongated pause.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, there are a lot of folks that

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Speaker 2: will tell you there's a big tank of gasoline that

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's about to pour on that fire and that

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Speaker 2: reinflation will be the buzzword next year after Trump tax

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Speaker 2: cuts or extended tariffs are implemented, deficits explode.

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Speaker 10: Were you on that, Yeah, I mean I would describe

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Speaker 10: this economy as that don't mess it up economy. And

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Speaker 10: it was similar to the last time, I mean Trump

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Speaker 10: came into office. The unemployment rate had been falling. It

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Speaker 10: was four point seven percent when he was inaugurated, but

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Speaker 10: had been falling for years. The economy right now is

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Speaker 10: even better than it was then. So you've got household

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Speaker 10: balance seats are really strong, Debt relative to disposable income

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Speaker 10: is really low. You know, there's some bad news as

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Speaker 10: far as transitions into delinquencies on credit cards. We really

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Speaker 10: have to squint in order to find any sort of

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Speaker 10: story which suggests that the US consumer's going to slow

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Speaker 10: down anytime soon.

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Speaker 3: And then you're seeing similarly, you're seeing nearly.

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Speaker 10: A perfect labor market. I mean, we're seeing real wage gains.

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Speaker 10: You've got plenty of jobs. You didn't have that type

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Speaker 10: of imbalance like you saw in twenty twenty when they're

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Speaker 10: just you know, we're just so many openings per worker.

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Speaker 10: So we have this really strong, healthy labor market, and

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Speaker 10: that means, you know, my advice, not that Trump's asking

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Speaker 10: for it, but it's like, just don't mess this up.

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Speaker 10: And so there's real concerns around tariff policy, there's real

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Speaker 10: concerns around overborrowing through a reconciliation pill, and I think

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Speaker 10: there's real concerns that are about being too strict on

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Speaker 10: immigration policy and possibly seeing net out migration, which is

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Speaker 10: something we haven't seen in my lifetime.

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Speaker 9: Well, so as we consider this notion that maybe everything

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Speaker 9: is just right and we're kind of in this Goldiglocks

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Speaker 9: phase right now, it doesn't seem though Trump necessarily agrees

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Speaker 9: with that. He had a press conference in mar A

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Speaker 9: Lago earlier this week in which he said interest rates

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Speaker 9: are far too high. And we actually asked the former

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Speaker 9: House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry about that on

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Speaker 9: this program earlier this week. This is what he told us.

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Speaker 11: Mean tweets that does not make monetary policy. And the

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Speaker 11: board of governors at the Feederal Reserve have long terms,

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Speaker 11: as Congress designed so they can have this longer term view.

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Speaker 11: And I think Jay pal has done a fabulous job

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Speaker 11: is share the FED. But this president will speak his

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Speaker 11: mind publicly where other presidents privately complained and that is

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Speaker 11: a big distinction between now and what was then.

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Speaker 9: So when we consider that distinction in this question of

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Speaker 9: the independent operation of monetary policy setting in the United

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Speaker 9: States for the FED, what would it mean if the

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Speaker 9: data is suggesting the FED can stand pat but the

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Speaker 9: President of the United States is saying no interest rates

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Speaker 9: need to go lower.

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Speaker 10: Well, this has been in my mind in part because

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Speaker 10: you saw President Carter's funeral yesterday and thinking about some

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Speaker 10: of the lessons that came out of the administration, and yeah, Vulgal,

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Speaker 10: So one of the lessons that came out with Look,

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Speaker 10: if you want to fight inflation, the first, second, and

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Speaker 10: third best thing to do is to appoint a credible

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Speaker 10: FED share and let that share do their job.

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Speaker 3: And so, you know, I think that a lot of

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Speaker 3: people do.

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Speaker 10: Worry about FED independence under this administration, but that's something

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Speaker 10: we will probably not have to worry about until the

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Speaker 10: middle part of twenty twenty six when Palace term is up.

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Speaker 10: When you look at the names of possible people who'd

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Speaker 10: be considered for FED share, they are all credible people,

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Speaker 10: people like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh and Mark Summerlin

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Speaker 10: and people Larry lindsay, people, some of them have political backgrounds,

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Speaker 10: but all credible people.

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Speaker 3: And so.

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Speaker 10: Obviously Tonald Trump doesn't want to repeat some of the

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Speaker 10: sins of the nineteen seventies the early part of the

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Speaker 10: decade before or does the Fed?

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Speaker 3: Or does the Fed?

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Speaker 10: And my senses is that you have to look at

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Speaker 10: what Donald Trump does, not so much what he says,

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Speaker 10: whether you're talking about a trade war, you're talking about

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Speaker 10: a corporate tax cut.

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Speaker 3: I mean, sometimes his bark is much.

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Speaker 10: Worse than this.

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Speaker 9: Seriously and literally, Oh yes.

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Speaker 2: I've heard that people. Well you said speaking of if

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Speaker 2: you said something important referred to immigration. And we're still

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Speaker 2: trying to get a sense of how serious or literal

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is about mass deportation. Let's say we close

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Speaker 2: the border. Let's say this mass deportation takes place. Caps

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Speaker 2: are not lifted on H one b's whereas the job market.

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Speaker 10: Yes, So one thing I realized coming out of research

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Speaker 10: out of Brookings is that you don't have to have

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Speaker 10: this oppressive deportation scheme in order to get net out migration.

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Speaker 10: So you can do other things right, So you can

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Speaker 10: put more agents of the border, you can transition people

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Speaker 10: who are here legally into illegal status, they're going to leave.

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Speaker 10: The rhetoric I think has a chilling effect, and you

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Speaker 10: can have people who are here legally who decide they

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Speaker 10: want to leave because it's no longer a spitable place

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Speaker 10: to legal immigrants. And so pretty quickly, even without these

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Speaker 10: mass deportation programs, you can get to net out migration,

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Speaker 10: a shrinking of the labor force, which might precipitate something

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Speaker 10: which we thought we might see in the last administration

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Speaker 10: but didn't, which is a wage price spiral. And so

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Speaker 10: if we get to the point where the labor market

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Speaker 10: is so tight that you start to anticipate future tightness

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Speaker 10: down the road, companies start giving raises prematurely, consumers start

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Speaker 10: buying anticipation, you know, then that's that's something which we

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Speaker 10: haven't dealt with in a long time, and that possibly

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Speaker 10: cuddled coupled with a non credible FED, or a FED

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Speaker 10: which is seen as being political, it could be terrible

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Speaker 10: news for inflation.

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Speaker 9: I want to talk about something else regarding the incoming

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Speaker 9: administration and those affiliated with it that has been in

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Speaker 9: the news this week. Elon Musk talking about the Department

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Speaker 9: of Government efficiency maybe pulling back expectations a little bit.

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Speaker 9: Maybe it's not going to be two trillion dollars in

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Speaker 9: spending cuts, but if they aim for two, they could

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Speaker 9: get one trillion dollars. Even if we assume that that

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Speaker 9: level is achievable, one trillion dollars is not an inconsequential

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Speaker 9: amount of money. When whether they're talking about pulling back

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Speaker 9: the scope and scale of the federal government, what would

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Speaker 9: that actually do economically if that drastic kind of cut

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Speaker 9: is implemented, Well.

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Speaker 3: It depends on the nature of the cuts.

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Speaker 10: And my guess is that based on the type of

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Speaker 10: cuts are considering, which is non defense discretionary spending, which

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Speaker 10: is a pretty small share of the overall federal budget,

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Speaker 10: these are the type of things that a tend to

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Speaker 10: make us a richer country, So investments in education, R

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Speaker 10: and D, science, spending cancer research that improves health.

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Speaker 3: I think that that's more or less.

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Speaker 10: Just a hit on our natural national prosperity down the road.

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Speaker 10: If they're talking about cuts to medicare to social security,

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Speaker 10: that has serious implications for the wellbeing of retired households,

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Speaker 10: but less so for the future prosperity of our country.

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Speaker 2: This was the final jobs report, while Joe Biden is

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Speaker 2: in office. What should Donald Trump prepare for in the

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Speaker 2: early phases of his administration. We'll get I guess what

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Speaker 2: would technically be Joe Biden's last jobs reporter partial month

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Speaker 2: while he's in office. How do you come off.

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Speaker 10: Data like this, Well, I mean, you're handed a terrific economy,

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Speaker 10: and I would just encourage those who are in policy

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Speaker 10: making positions to move slowly when it comes to tariff policy.

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Speaker 10: I looked the last administration, the last Trump administration, where

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Speaker 10: the average tariff rate went up about one hundred fifty

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Speaker 10: basis points. It was not a trade war, it was

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Speaker 10: a trade war with China. So the average terrify on

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Speaker 10: Chinese imports went from three percent up to eleven percent.

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Speaker 10: So certainly consequential for China. But if you're talking about

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Speaker 10: goods it came from anywhere but China, the tariff movements

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Speaker 10: were almost zero. And so my hope is that he

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Speaker 10: doesn't come in too strong with changes in our trade policy.

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Speaker 10: My hope is that they are as worried about the

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Speaker 10: deathsit as many economists are, and you don't see big

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Speaker 10: increases in issuance coming out of a reconciliation package. I

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Speaker 10: think right now, markets are expecting around five trillion dollars

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Speaker 10: in new borrowing. If you came in with seven trillion dollars,

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Speaker 10: I really I think theoud royal fancial markets so like,

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Speaker 10: we have to step back, take a pause. We don't

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Speaker 10: know what to do with all this new issuance. So

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Speaker 10: I would say move slowly, honor the terrific stay of

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Speaker 10: the economy and realize that all this rhetoric Nestley isn't

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Speaker 10: a good thing for business conditions, isn't a good thing

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Speaker 10: for American households, and maybe dall it back a bit.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's always watching, so he'll get Yeah, he definitely

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Speaker 2: cares what Ben Harris, thank you so much. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see you. Let's compare notes in a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: We do have headlines from the White House, Kaylee as

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden is briefed on the wildfires in California, FEMA

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Speaker 2: turning on its Critical Needs Assistant program, and they are

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Speaker 2: making some progress on containment in the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: We'll have more ahead here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us here.

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Speaker 2: It's Friday on the fastest show in politics. This is

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Speaker 2: Balance of Power and I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines

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Speaker 2: in Washington. We have our signature panel with us. Kayley

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Speaker 2: with a lot more to talk about here. It's all

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Speaker 2: on to mar A Lago this week, and are you

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Speaker 2: going to Florida?

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Speaker 9: Did not get a little warm weather like half the

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Speaker 9: House of Representatives.

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Speaker 2: The Republican Conference is going along with one Democrat by

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Speaker 2: the name of John Fetterman, who is reaching across the

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Speaker 2: aisle here. He says he wants to be the next

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Speaker 2: Pope of Greenland. We can save the comedy for our

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Speaker 2: signature panel. They're with us here Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.

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Speaker 2: He is Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital.

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Speaker 2: Genie is our democratic analyst of course, political science professor

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Speaker 2: at Iona University and Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center

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Speaker 2: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.

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Speaker 3: I'm compelled by this.

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Speaker 2: John Fetterman situation here, Genie, I mean it was actually

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Speaker 2: news that the Republican Main Street Partnership would have a

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Speaker 2: representative at Marra a Lago. They're coming from the center,

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Speaker 2: they're coming from the right, and we've got a Democrat

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Speaker 2: from Pennsylvania there.

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Speaker 3: What's he doing?

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Speaker 12: Yeah, I think it makes sense. He's gotten some criticism,

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Speaker 12: as you can imagine, from the left for going, but

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Speaker 12: he has said, look, it is this is the incoming

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Speaker 12: president of the United States. I am from a fifty

444
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 12: to fifty state. It is incumbent on me to open

445
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 12: these conversations and continue them. And this is sort of

446
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 12: a really interesting trajectory of Fetterman. You know, he was

447
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 12: often seen initially as a real progressive lightning rod and attacked,

448
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 12: but since I pay attention to conservative media over the

449
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 12: last year or so, he's become really something of a

450
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 12: darling of the conservative media. He was the first Senator

451
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 12: the other day to support first Democrat, I should say

452
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 12: senator to support the Lincoln Riley Act, which pertains to

453
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 12: border security. So I think he is really making a

454
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 12: name for himself and trying to lead the way to

455
00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 12: work with Donald Trump and the Republicans. When they can

456
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 12: on issues they agree on, and certainly for John Fetterman,

457
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 12: there's a lot from Israel and the border to the economy,

458
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 12: so I'll think it makes sense.

459
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 9: Well, it makes me wonder, Rick, if we're going to

460
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 9: be having to watch the way John Fetterman votes and

461
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 9: the confirmation votes for Trump's nominees. Is he going to

462
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 9: be the one Democrat potentially that crosses the line on

463
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 9: some of the more controversial ones.

464
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 13: I don't know about the more controversial ones, but he

465
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 13: has said publicly I will vote for Donald Trump confirma

466
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 13: nominees to be confirmed. And you know the proviso to

467
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 13: that is obviously, you know, pending background checks and things

468
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 13: like that. But at the end of the day, I

469
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 13: think he is opening up this session of the Senate

470
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 13: basically saying I'm here to cooperate and get stuff done.

471
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 13: Tired of the politics of the past, the division, the partisanship,

472
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 13: and let's get something going on here that can change.

473
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 8: Now.

474
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 13: What I think is really interesting is here's a guy,

475
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 13: John Fetterman, who's going down to Marlago basically preach bipartisanship,

476
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 13: and there is not a clear leader of the Democratic

477
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 13: Party who will be the loyal opposition at this point

478
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 13: to Donald Trump. I mean, you've just had a presidential campaign,

479
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 13: and the Democratic Party seems completely without a rudder to say,

480
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 13: we're not for what he's trying to accomplish. And that

481
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 13: is just from a purely political point of view, a

482
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 13: real missing element to this Democratic Party.

483
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: You know, we talk about bipartisanship a lot around here.

484
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 2: Jeanie is John Fetterman the smartest politician in Washington. Look

485
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: at this tweet he just put up here with his

486
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: Republican counterpart in the Senate Pennsylvania, David McCormick. He's retweeting

487
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 2: McCormick here, and he writes, two dudes, two better halves, bipartisanships,

488
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: sixty seven counties, a stronger Pennsylvania. They went out to

489
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 2: dinner together. I know they're had some diner of something here,

490
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: which really shouldn't take the wives. Jeannie with the wives. Yes,

491
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 2: look at this, Look at the smiles. Does he have

492
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 2: something figured it out?

493
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 6: They do?

494
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 12: And I'm so glad you raised that tweet because again

495
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 12: he got so much flack for going and eating and

496
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 12: sitting with you know, Dave McCormick and his wife and

497
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 12: Fetterman and his wife, But I think he is onto something.

498
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 12: The reality is is Pennsylvania is a big, complicated state.

499
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 12: It's a fifty to fifty state, and to Fetterman and

500
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 12: McCormick's points, they represent the entire state, and so I

501
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 12: think it's incumbent on him to work with Dave McCormick

502
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 12: and you know, try to do what's best for Pennsylvania

503
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 12: in the country. The other part of this is I

504
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 12: agree with them on bringing civility back to Washington. We

505
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 12: need people to bring civility back. And a few weeks

506
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 12: ago Fetterman, I think he was talking on EBC. He said, look,

507
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 12: I'm not rooting against Donald Trump. I want what's best

508
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 12: for my state and for the country. And I think

509
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 12: that's approach. We hope all Americans, and certainly are representatives

510
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 12: in Congress take to Rick's point, and it's a good one.

511
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 12: Democrats also have to pick and choose their battles, and

512
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 12: they do need somebody to stand up when Donald Trump

513
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,199
Speaker 12: is doing something or the Republicans are that's against the

514
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 12: interest of the lower middle class and to say so

515
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 12: and to you know, represent the opposition. And they're going

516
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 12: to have to find their way to do that because

517
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 12: they don't have a lot of leadership there, although they

518
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 12: do have Hockem. Jeffries and they have Chuck Schumer.

519
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 9: Well Joe as Genie talks about civility in Washington. We

520
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 9: arguably saw that on display yesterday when the state funeral

521
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 9: services for former President Jimmy Carter were held to the

522
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 9: National Cathedral and all five living presidents were an attendant

523
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 9: sitting in pews together, talking, maybe even laughing together in

524
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 9: the case of Donald Trump and Barack Obama. And Donald

525
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 9: Trump actually spoke about that interaction last night.

526
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 14: It did look very friendly. I must say, I didn't

527
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 14: realize it. I didn't realize it how friendly it looks.

528
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 14: I saw it on your wonderful network just a little

529
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 14: while ago before I came in, and I said, boy,

530
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 14: they looked like two people that like each other.

531
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 6: And we probably do.

532
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 14: We have little different philosophies, right.

533
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 6: But we probably do.

534
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 14: I don't know. We just got along, but I got

535
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 14: along with just about everybody and that we you know,

536
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 14: we met backstages, you know, before we went on, and

537
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 14: I thought it was a beautiful service.

538
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 6: But we all got along very well, which is good.

539
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 9: They probably do like each other. Rick Davis, you buy

540
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,239
Speaker 9: that or was this a one day only thing.

541
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 13: Oh, You're gonna need experts much more capable of than

542
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 13: I to determine whether or not Barack Obama and Donald

543
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 13: Trump like each other. That being said, I mean, you know,

544
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 13: it is a celebration of our institutions when you can

545
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 13: have these former presidents in a pew together and a

546
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 13: fight doesn't break out right after an election. Kudos to

547
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 13: Jimmy Carter for bringing these people all together, and maybe

548
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 13: that does usher in an era of good feeling. I

549
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 13: mean this point about Fetterman. I mean, up until this election,

550
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 13: we only had five states with split delegations in the

551
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 13: United States Senate where there was one Republican and run Democrat.

552
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 13: We live in a hyperpartisan, divided country, and all of

553
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 13: a sudden we start to see a little movement toward

554
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 13: the center, even amongst Republicans, you know, which may be

555
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 13: a good reason to have them all down to Florida

556
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 13: for a cold weekend in Washington, that's right.

557
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 2: I don't know Genie your take on this. By the way,

558
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if there's a stage in the National

559
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 2: Cathedral that would justify a backstage. It wasn't a show.

560
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 2: It was a funeral yesterday. But nonetheless, I'd love to know,

561
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 2: by the way, what Donald Trump and Mike Pence said

562
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: to each other when they shook hands.

563
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: But what do you think, is.

564
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: He getting soft in his age or is this the

565
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 2: mainstreaming of Donald Trump or what's happening.

566
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 12: Yeah, I wouldn't say he's getting soft, but you guys know,

567
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 12: I love the New York Post. Cheers to the New

568
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 12: York Post. And they had a lip reader there, and

569
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 12: the lip reader had some very interesting things to say

570
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 12: that Obama and Trump were talking about. Apparently, he said,

571
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 12: we need to find a quiet place later in the

572
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 12: day to discuss a matter of importance. So who knows

573
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 12: what they were discussing. There was sort of speculation it

574
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 12: was like an international agreement. So you know, remember like

575
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 12: the liver readers, the body language folks that come on.

576
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 12: I love that, So who knows what they were discussing.

577
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 12: But you know, the reality is is that there was

578
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 12: an interaction with Donald Trump to your point, and Mike Pence,

579
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 12: but Karen Pence not so much, and who can blame her?

580
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 12: After January sixth, so a lot of intrigue in the

581
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 12: personal space there and I thought it was fascinating.

582
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 9: Yeah, no handshake offered by the former second lady.

583
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 2: Oh that's correct, she was a smile.

584
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 9: Yeah, not down for that. Yesterday, Jeanie Schanzeno and Rick Davis,

585
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 9: our signature political panel, thanks as always for joining us.

586
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 9: Of course, they'll be back for more in the late

587
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 9: edition of Ballads of Power coming up at five pm.

588
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 9: But before we go, in this early edition, we got

589
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 9: to talk about TikTok. It was arguments heard at the

590
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 9: Supreme Court today. I'm seeing the courts necessarily anti ban

591
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 9: at this point.

592
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: Donald Trump may not like the way this works out.

593
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: We may not be blocking the talk. We'll find out next.

594
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg.

595
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

596
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn

597
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: on Apple, Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

598
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

599
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

600
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: Today is the sentencing of no jail time for Donald Trump.

601
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: This is the hush money case, Kayley, the Stormy Daniels

602
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: case in New York. He had asked the Supreme Court

603
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 2: to intervene, yep, and no such luck. Even Amy Comb

604
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 2: Barrett took a pass on that. So he was in

605
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 2: fact in a sentencing hearing virtually and we heard from

606
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 2: the President elect at least an audio form.

607
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: Listen.

608
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 6: This has been a very terrible experience.

609
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 14: I think it's been a tremendous setback for New York

610
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 14: and the New York court system.

611
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 6: This is a case that Alvin Bragg did not want

612
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 6: to bring. He thought it was, from what I read

613
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 6: and from what I hear, inappropriately handled before he got there.

614
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 9: But of course the case was brought, it was tried,

615
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 9: and a jury in New York did find Donald Trump

616
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 9: guilty of these thirty four crimes. He was convicted, but,

617
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 9: as Joe mentioned, won't really face punishment for that conviction.

618
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 9: No jail time, no probation, and unconditional discharge is what

619
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 9: he received. So for more, let's go to June Grosso,

620
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 9: host of Bloomberg Law here with us on balance of power. June,

621
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 9: given that this really is not consequence at all, necessarily

622
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 9: no real punishment here for Donald Trump. What is the

623
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 9: important thing about this? Is it just that he will

624
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 9: now take the of office ten days from now as

625
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 9: a convicted felap.

626
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 15: Well, I mean that's the main thing on his side,

627
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 15: On the judge's side, he said that all the protections

628
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 15: that a president gets can't erase a jury verdict. So

629
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 15: I think that was the important thing for the justice system,

630
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 15: that the jury verdict stands and is honored. Donald Trump

631
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 15: what he was trying to avoid. He knew that he

632
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 15: wasn't going to get any prison time, but yet in

633
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 15: the last few weeks there have been furious legal motions,

634
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 15: even as you mentioned to the Supreme Court, because he

635
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 15: wanted to avoid the stigma of being the only president,

636
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 15: the only US president in office as a convicted felon,

637
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 15: And so that was what he was trying to avoid,

638
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 15: and now that's happened to him. There also is one

639
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 15: thing is that he won't be able to vote as

640
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 15: a felon in Florida, although people I've talked to have

641
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 15: said that they think that the governor will make some

642
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 15: exceptions for him.

643
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 2: Well, so we're done here, right, No, we're not. You

644
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 2: could see a special Council report that may or may

645
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 2: not be released with regard to this case. Anybody come

646
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 2: back around in four years. Donald Trump is now in

647
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 2: the clear.

648
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 15: Well see, and what the Supreme Court said was take

649
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 15: up all your evidentiary issues at appeal, where normally the

650
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 15: normal defendant would get sentenced and appeal and then might

651
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 15: go to the Supreme Court if they had enough money

652
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 15: to do that. But so now we're going to go

653
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 15: through with the appeal. He has thirty days to appeal.

654
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 15: You know he's going to appeal because he's appealed every

655
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 15: single thing else. And he mentioned that he was going

656
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 15: to appeal the night before last night. Things have been

657
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 15: happening so fast, I'm trying to keep track. Last night

658
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 15: at mar A Lago when he made some statements, he

659
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 15: mentioned that he was going to appeal. And they do

660
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 15: have some appellate issues based on presidential immunity, so that

661
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 15: will might take years to get through the court systems,

662
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 15: and I think we'll end up at the Supreme Court again.

663
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 9: Still well, busy justices they are, and they certainly were

664
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 9: today June where this morning they heard arguments in the

665
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 9: TikTok case. It's really mentally a case about national security

666
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 9: and how it stacks up against the right to free

667
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 9: speech in the United States. Are reporting and analysis signals

668
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 9: that the justices do seem open to keeping this band

669
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,439
Speaker 9: that is set to go into effect on January nineteenth,

670
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 9: allowing it to go into effect. But how did you

671
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 9: read arguments?

672
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 15: So when you say national security, the courts seem to

673
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 15: freeze national security. And when a president says something as

674
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 15: national security a risk, then in Congress does then the

675
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,399
Speaker 15: courts think that that's the most important thing. It has

676
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 15: precedence over anything else, including it seems like from these

677
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 15: oral arguments today free speech concerns. And you have to

678
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 15: remember something, you know, the Congress, no one has really

679
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 15: sort of set out what are the national security concerns here?

680
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 15: What has TikTok done that would give pause? You know,

681
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 15: I mean it's sort of like the nip on steel

682
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:02,240
Speaker 15: US steel ban where Biden said it's national security concerns,

683
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 15: but no one says what are those concerns? And apparently

684
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 15: there is a you know, secret record that Congress has

685
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 15: only seen, but the public hasn't seen it. And the

686
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 15: public is going to be very very annoyed a lot

687
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 15: of the public if that date comes and the ban

688
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 15: goes into effect. And so from the Supreme Court, one

689
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 15: thing that they did say, I mean, it was discussed

690
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 15: could they possibly put this off, give it a stay

691
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 15: of the law until Donald Trump takes office, because he

692
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 15: filed a brief with the court, not mentioning any constitutional issues,

693
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 15: but just mentioning his deal prowess and how he'd be

694
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 15: the only one who'd be able to put this all

695
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 15: together and solve it. So, you know, that is a possibility.

696
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 15: Perhaps the court will put it off, but they certainly

697
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 15: seem to think that the national security concerns overrode everything else,

698
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 15: and they didn't you know, the lawyers for TikTok and

699
00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 15: the lawyers for the creators of the program on the

700
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 15: app didn't seem to get much play for their arguments.

701
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: Jude's good to see you. Thank you so much, June Grosso,

702
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Law, of course, as we want to add another

703
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 2: voice of experience to this conversation, Sarah o'lam, Senior fellow

704
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: at the Technology Policy Institute. Sarah, welcome to Bloomberg TV

705
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 2: and Radio. What do you think here do national security

706
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 2: concerns override the First Amendment in this case?

707
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 8: Well, we have to go back and look at the

708
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 8: law that was passed and signed by President Biden. It

709
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 8: went through the House, and it passed three hundred and

710
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 8: sixty votes to fifty eight in March. It passed the

711
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 8: Senate seventy nine votes to eighteen in April, and then

712
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 8: it was signed in April twenty fourth, twenty four. So

713
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 8: you know in the record, Congress is concerned about the

714
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 8: corporate ownership of TikTok by Bye Dance, and they have

715
00:36:55,239 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 8: concerns about the data collection operations and label China as

716
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 8: a foreign adversary. And so that is the posture that

717
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 8: we're looking at with this deadline that's coming up January nineteenth.

718
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 8: What's interesting, though, is that President Trump he started all

719
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 8: of this with executive orders in twenty nineteen. So this

720
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 8: conversation about TikTok has been ongoing for five years now. SIPHIUS,

721
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 8: the Committee on Foreign Investment had a finding in twenty twenty.

722
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 8: They've been trying to go through risk mitigation and plans

723
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:36,399
Speaker 8: for monitoring by Oracle, and so there's been a lot

724
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 8: of back and forth. But really what happened was Congress

725
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 8: passed the law, the President signed it, and so now

726
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 8: the Supreme Court is in this position where they're being

727
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 8: asked to maybe extend the deadline from January nineteenth, or

728
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 8: as the DOJ asked them to let it go through

729
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 8: to January nineteenth and see what happens if by Dance

730
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,280
Speaker 8: will divest.

731
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 9: Yeah, and we'll have to wait for a ruling on that,

732
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 9: which presumably could come any time in the next nine days,

733
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,399
Speaker 9: since that's the deadline we're up against here, Sarah. It

734
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 9: does seem though, that this really does just come down

735
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 9: to the question of ownership, specifically that it doesn't necessarily

736
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 9: matter what is being propagated or posted on TikTok or

737
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:24,760
Speaker 9: by who. It only matters where ultimately the ownership lies.

738
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 9: Is that a correct way of reading this, and that's

739
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 9: the out that Congress gave TikTok right, just change the ownership,

740
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 9: make sure that it doesn't lead back to China.

741
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 8: Well, what was really interesting was I listened to the

742
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 8: oral arguments this morning. They went on from ten am

743
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 8: to twelve thirty, so right before this time, and it

744
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 8: was very interesting to hear the nine justices talk with

745
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 8: the solicitors about these questions. And so they kept trying

746
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 8: to separate the content free speech concerns from the ownership concerns.

747
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,439
Speaker 8: But there is a chicken and egg ish you here,

748
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 8: where you have a corporate parent that is related to

749
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 8: a nation state that has control over the algorithms that

750
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 8: implicate content. There was discussion though about how in the

751
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 8: law it doesn't seem to end. Congress doesn't seem to

752
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 8: be concerned about the dance videos, the cat videos, just

753
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 8: so long as the ownership is by a different type

754
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 8: of entity. So the justices, you know, they picked apart

755
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 8: the different arguments, asking hypotheticals, what if this statute didn't

756
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 8: have anything to do with speech, what if it was

757
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 8: just ownership? And they did address questions of what level

758
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 8: of scrutiny to apply it by looking at the first

759
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 8: Amendment questions is it strict scrutiny, is it intermediate scrutiny.

760
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 8: So what's going to be interesting is to see how

761
00:39:55,200 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 8: they decide their place in the separation of powers. So

762
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 8: they've been asked to come in and even be between

763
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 8: the future president who will be installed in January twentieth.

764
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 8: And like the reporter before me said, he did file

765
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 8: an amicus brief in this case asking for a stay,

766
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 8: saying that the deadline is a bit arbitrary and that

767
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 8: it happens to be right before the change of administration,

768
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 8: and so there could be some wiggle room there to say,

769
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 8: and the statute includes a ninety day extension for certain circumstances,

770
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 8: so there are some reasons that the court might say,

771
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 8: you know, we don't want to make an emergency decision here.

772
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 8: We'll let things sort out by giving an extension of time.

773
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 2: So that answers my next question, which is be more

774
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 2: what's more likely an extension on this deadline or an

775
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: imminent ruling. The Court's going to need to take some

776
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 2: more time, right, they have to question, DOJ officials where

777
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: you going to be watching.

778
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 6: In the day's head?

779
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:02,919
Speaker 5: Right?

780
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 8: Well, they did ask questions about can the president not

781
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 8: enforce the law? And so the president is the one

782
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 8: who enforces the deadline. But if it is law, TikTok

783
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 8: and its partners. So they were saying, all the cloud

784
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 8: providers and contracted partners, if the law is in effect

785
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 8: January nineteenth, they can't provide the services that they currently are.

786
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 8: So you would see a blackout on the app. And

787
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 8: there was discussion about analogs to broadcast TV and communications law.

788
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 8: We've seen blackouts for you know, sports and different contracting,

789
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 8: so it's not unprecedented that there could be a blackout.

790
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 15: It would be.

791
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 8: It would make one hundred and seventy million people, you know, confused.

792
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 8: But this is where we are.

793
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 9: And just quickly, Sarah, as we're having this conversation around

794
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 9: free speech and First Amendment rights as it pertains to

795
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 9: TikTok and obviously goes well beyond that, Meta we learned

796
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 9: this week is pulling back on fact checking, saying that

797
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 9: there's kind of a new political reality with this incoming administration.

798
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 9: How do you think widely across technology, the approach to

799
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 9: these free speech issues and questions of censorship is going

800
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:23,959
Speaker 9: to change in the next four years.

801
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 8: Well, I think it's very interesting that we're in a

802
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 8: time where user generated content is growing in volume. People

803
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 8: are used to being able to express themselves. There are

804
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 8: AI bots that are automated that are pushing out more content,

805
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 8: and so really this case is a good kind of

806
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 8: microcosm of where we are in technology. Meta is trying

807
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 8: to promote more speech on its platform, and there is

808
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 8: a competition with Chinese companies. So really in the next

809
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 8: five years or so, you're going to see more competition

810
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:06,280
Speaker 8: between US companies and Chinese companies. But then there's also

811
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 8: a lot of like cross commerce, so TikTok wants to

812
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 8: operate in the US and our companies want to be

813
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 8: in China, and so there there is that interplay and

814
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 8: also competition.

815
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 9: And therein lies the rub. Sarah o'lambs, Senior Fellow at

816
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,919
Speaker 9: the Technology Policy Institute, joining us on Balance of Power

817
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:29,439
Speaker 9: here in Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you so much.

818
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 9: I would point out Joe as it's looking not that

819
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 9: great for TikTok and the Supreme Court Meta is a

820
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 9: beneficiary of that today on a down day for financial

821
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 9: markets up three percent in this Friday trade.

822
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,720
Speaker 2: It's about as good as it's looked all session as well.

823
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 2: This could be good news from Mark Zuckerberg. We'll find

824
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 2: out that's part of the motivation. So you're write their friends.

825
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 6: Now again, Yeah, problem.

826
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:59,280
Speaker 2: Trump, than they're warming up to each other probably. Thanks

827
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,399
Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcasts. Make sure

828
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify or

829
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

830
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

831
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.