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Speaker 1: You know what's wild is college football is the second

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Speaker 1: most popular sport in this country, and yet a large

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Speaker 1: chunk of the national sports media treat it like it's

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Speaker 1: a foreign language. They can't talk it. You've forced these

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Speaker 1: people to talk about our sport for two seconds. They

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Speaker 1: sound lost. I guess that's beneficial for us, but oh,

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Speaker 1: for the greater good of society, can we please learn

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Speaker 1: a thing or two about this sport. We are jam packed.

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Speaker 1: We're HIATAPA, ready to go downtown Nashville, Tennessee. It is

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Speaker 1: Tuesday night, September twenty sixth year of our lower twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three. We got week five predictions on the show tonight.

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Speaker 1: Got a number of games we need to go over.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be down in Auburn Saturday for Georgia Auburn,

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Speaker 1: and people have questioned me, Jesse and Colin, you've heard it.

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Speaker 1: People have been questioning, why would you go to that game?

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Speaker 1: Need I remind you? Last two weeks the building I've

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Speaker 1: been in was the building where the game was decided

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Speaker 1: on the final play? Is that my prediction? Well, we'll

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Speaker 1: find out during the show tonight. I'm just saying, if

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Speaker 1: you're flipping through the dial Saturday afternoon that CBS three

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Speaker 1: thirty Eastern, two thirty Central game of the week may

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Speaker 1: bear close watching. It turns out, the more I thought

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Speaker 1: about it Monday, I've got some more things to say

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Speaker 1: about this whole Dan Lanning thing at Oregon, this whole

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Speaker 1: Ryan Day thing, a little bit of Dion Sanders, but

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Speaker 1: mostly those two. I went back and listened to what

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Speaker 1: we said Sunday night, I didn't get it all off

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Speaker 1: my chest. And also some more things have been added

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Speaker 1: onto the plate since then, brand new JP pole tonight.

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Speaker 1: I have not spoken to the model all week. Famously,

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Speaker 1: I disagreed with the model last week on things such

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Speaker 1: as putting A and M ahead of Miami, even after

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Speaker 1: Miami boat raced A and M, and the Model it

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Speaker 1: tried to put some more foolishness out there today. Luckily

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Speaker 1: I caught it at the past. We'll talk about it

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Speaker 1: in just a little while. And also, one of you

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Speaker 1: had the nerve to ask me how I feel here

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Speaker 1: in week five about my conference championship predictions. Well, the

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Speaker 1: answer is, in some cases, not too good. I'm a realist,

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Speaker 1: not too good. And so what am I gonna do tonight?

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take my own good name, and I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: drag it through the mud a little bit. But that's

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Speaker 1: okay because there's a hose pipe out back and it's

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Speaker 1: only week five. No one's eliminated yet, although things are

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Speaker 1: looking pretty dire in some compartments of my predictions. They're

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Speaker 1: watching us in Evansville, Indiana. Lulu, Florida is tuned in

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Speaker 1: Salt Lake City, Utah. You people are saints for tuning

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Speaker 1: in even though I cannot get a Utah game right

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Speaker 1: to save my life. And Charleston, South Carolina. Thank you

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Speaker 1: guys so much as you have seen if you follow

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Speaker 1: on Instagram at Lake Kick Josh, just all sorts of things.

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Speaker 1: It does not matter. I don't care if you're listening

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Speaker 1: to me. I don't care if your girlfriend, who couldn't

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Speaker 1: care less about college football is listening to me. There

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Speaker 1: are things for everyone over there at Lake Kick Josh.

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Speaker 1: Wonderful behind the scenes access we had at Notre Dame,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State last Saturday night. Friday night lines is there

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Speaker 1: live on Friday night. It's the only place that you

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Speaker 1: can get that and some other odds and ends. So

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Speaker 1: there you go. All right, let's dive into the show tonight.

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Speaker 1: Always appreciate you guys being tuned in live. The live

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Speaker 1: chat's always on fire, and yet it's always over here

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Speaker 1: to my right, so I kind of see it in

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Speaker 1: my peripheral vision going crazy. But I do go back

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Speaker 1: and look after the show, and I ban like five

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Speaker 1: people per show, But largely I just appreciate it. It's unprofessional.

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't cover my face on my papers there. One

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Speaker 1: of the golden rules on this show has been and

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Speaker 1: always will be, is do not coach to please your enemies.

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Speaker 1: And there were two glaring and wonderful examples of that

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Speaker 1: going on last Saturday night. One of them was Ryan

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Speaker 1: Day against Notre Dame. I know that's bent a lot

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Speaker 1: of you sideways. And then Dan Landing and what he

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Speaker 1: said before, during, and after the Oregon throttling of Colorado

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Speaker 1: has rubbed a lot of you the wrong way. I

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Speaker 1: famously have never particularly loved the way that Dabo Sweeney

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Speaker 1: went about motivating his team at Clemson. But if you'll notice,

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Speaker 1: and you've watched the show for a while, or if

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Speaker 1: you have, you've noticed, I always thought he did a

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Speaker 1: great job. And that doesn't sound like it makes much sense, right,

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Speaker 1: How can you both not like something someone does but

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Speaker 1: also think they're doing a great job. Well, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter how I feel about how Dabo runs his program

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Speaker 1: as long as he's getting maximum efficiency and results out

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Speaker 1: of his program. I'm not talking about this year, talking

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Speaker 1: about over the long run. It was obvious, regardless of

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Speaker 1: whether it rubbed me the wrong way or not, it

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Speaker 1: was obvious at the level Clemson was playing that Dabbo

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Speaker 1: was doing something right. So who cares what I think

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Speaker 1: about it? Well, I say the same thing about these

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Speaker 1: folks who were upset about Dan Lanning saying what he

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Speaker 1: said to his team, and Ryan Day for saying what

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Speaker 1: he said after the game the other night when he

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Speaker 1: sort of quasi targeted Lou Holtz, And I told you

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Speaker 1: I thought that was just bottled up emotion that he's

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Speaker 1: been carrying for a little while. Well, I'll get to

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Speaker 1: Ryan Day in a second. But I wanted to circle back.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes I clap when I'm really excited on the show.

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Speaker 1: I want to circle back for just second on this.

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Speaker 1: We don't do this very often. By Tuesday, I have

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Speaker 1: long since moved on from last week. But I thought

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Speaker 1: about this yesterday, and the more I thought about it,

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Speaker 1: the more I said, dude, you left a lot of

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Speaker 1: meat on the bone the other night, so let's pick

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Speaker 1: it clean here. I think Dan Lanning was really introduced

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Speaker 1: to a large chunk of the college football public last Saturday. Now,

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Speaker 1: if you're watching this show, chances are you're a diehard fan.

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Speaker 1: So if you're watching this show, you already knew who

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Speaker 1: Dan Lanning was. You had a fully formed opinion of him.

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Speaker 1: And that's wonderful because that's how we roll. Not everyone

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Speaker 1: rolls like us. Some people check in on Saturdays and

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Speaker 1: they don't follow the sports Sunday through Friday. These are

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Speaker 1: people who would celebrate the off season. These are people

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Speaker 1: who don't mind being booked in a fall wedding. They're

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Speaker 1: out there. I promise you they're out there, maybe closer

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Speaker 1: to your social circle than you want to admit. Those

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Speaker 1: folks did not know a whole heck of a lot

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Speaker 1: about Dan Lanning going into Saturday, and then for about

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Speaker 1: a three or five where our window, Dan Lanning was

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Speaker 1: blasted all over Twitter, all over Instagram, all over TikTok,

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Speaker 1: all over national television. He was in the Game of

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Speaker 1: the Week against Colorado, whether you want to call it

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Speaker 1: that or not it was, and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: the first impression folks had of Dan Lanning was this

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Speaker 1: dude that looked like a borderline psychopath going crazy talking

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Speaker 1: about how they're out for one thing, we're out for

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Speaker 1: another thing. Let's do the talking with our pads. Dude

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Speaker 1: looked like Kirby smart West. That's kind of what he was.

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Speaker 1: By the way, it's the last dude he coached under

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Speaker 1: before he went and got his own job out of Oregon. Well, anyway,

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Speaker 1: the game went the way it went, And I told

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Speaker 1: you Sunday night, I don't know what Dan Lanny's gonna

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Speaker 1: say this week, but man, I know he's got a

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Speaker 1: Monday press conference coming up, and I hope and I

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Speaker 1: hope and I hope that he does not bend a

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Speaker 1: knee to these people who were going to ask for

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Speaker 1: apologies and ask him if he regrets anything, because it

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Speaker 1: was obvious based on the level his team played at

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Speaker 1: he pressed all the right buttons. Well, we have acquired

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Speaker 1: footage clear from Eugene Oregon of said press conference, and

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Speaker 1: we're going to give five stars to Dan Lanning for

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Speaker 1: this one. Close friends, this is how you put on

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Speaker 1: a clinic after putting on a clinic.

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Speaker 2: Here's why I say we're playing to win the game. Right,

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Speaker 2: And you saw a fifteen second clip from a window

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Speaker 2: view outside the house of what happens in the locker room. Right,

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Speaker 2: I know our locker room. I'm in the house one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent of the time. I know how our players

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Speaker 2: felt going into that game, and I know what it

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Speaker 2: takes to motivate our players. That's my job to motivate

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Speaker 2: our players. Right, he has a job. I have a

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Speaker 2: job too to get out there and to perform on

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Speaker 2: the field. But inside that house, they felt a certain way.

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Speaker 2: They felt a certain way about a group stomping on

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Speaker 2: the oh, they felt a certain way about guys talking

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Speaker 2: to him in the pregame. And I'm proud of those

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Speaker 2: guys because what they decided to do is talk with

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Speaker 2: their pads, right. They didn't want to do anything extra afterwards.

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Speaker 2: They wanted to talk with their pads, and they did

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Speaker 2: that on Saturday. I'm also grateful and can clearly acknowledge

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Speaker 2: that the attention that we got this Saturday in a

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Speaker 2: large part was due to Dion and what he's doing

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Speaker 2: to college football. And if anybody can't see what he's

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Speaker 2: done for college football and bringing excitement to college football.

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Speaker 1: You're crazy credit dion check. Don't bend an inch, check,

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Speaker 1: defend your players, defend your position check, and have your

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Speaker 1: creative media people run circles around everyone else by out

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Speaker 1: Colorado in Colorado after you body bagged Colorado. It was

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Speaker 1: a clinic on all fronts from the University of Oregon

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Speaker 1: this past weekend and bleeding into this week. And if

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Speaker 1: you don't know what I'm talking about, I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of you don't peruse social media a lot. Go

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Speaker 1: borrow your nephew's account, log in, and just go watch

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Speaker 1: the Borderline short film that Oregon put out. It gives

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Speaker 1: you a sense if you just watched the broadcast, you

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Speaker 1: wouldn't pick up on. It gives you a sense of

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Speaker 1: what pregames like. I'm on the field every week. I

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Speaker 1: see this stuff every week. I hear the talking every week.

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Speaker 1: I know what it's like. Frankly, I'm surprised that there

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Speaker 1: are not knock down, drag out brawls every week in

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Speaker 1: college football. You watch, you watch a team rack up

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Speaker 1: three or four personal fouls in a game, and you

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Speaker 1: call them undisciplined. And I'm sitting here thinking I cannot

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Speaker 1: believe based on what it sounds like on this field

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Speaker 1: right now, every one of these games does not devolve

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Speaker 1: into just an outright street fight. It's crazy. So I

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Speaker 1: had to the discipline that it takes to play at

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Speaker 1: the level Oregon played at. And then afterwards and you've

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Speaker 1: run up the score on someone afterwards, your creative services department,

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Speaker 1: it turns out, captured all the pregame talk and it

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Speaker 1: captured everything Dan Lanting's talking about. And I think they

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Speaker 1: should enter that thing in some festivals. That was how

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Speaker 1: good a cinematic presentation that was. But let me let

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Speaker 1: me try and put this in terms that ninety eight

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Speaker 1: percent of the audience will understand. I know most of

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Speaker 1: you did not play high level college football. I know

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Speaker 1: most of you didn't coach it. Most of you didn't

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Speaker 1: go on to play pro. Most of you didn't go

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Speaker 1: on to coach pro. I share that with you. I

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Speaker 1: have it in common with you. I do have the

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Speaker 1: good fortune of seeing this stuff up close every week,

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Speaker 1: the telling you, the average person could not possibly comprehend

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Speaker 1: how high a level this stuff is being played at,

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Speaker 1: how high a level the intensity is, how off the charts,

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Speaker 1: like animalistic, the aggression is the aggression that it takes

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Speaker 1: to compete at this level. You don't reach that in

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Speaker 1: a nine to five. In a cubicle, you'd never need

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Speaker 1: to reach that. I hope you don't reach that in

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Speaker 1: your living room in Susquehanna on a Saturday. You think

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Speaker 1: I knew where that was, did you, Jesse. What happens, though,

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Speaker 1: is that's when you see it. You see it from

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Speaker 1: your couch, and it's like you're watching Dan Landing go crazy,

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Speaker 1: and it's exactly as he put it. You're seeing that

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Speaker 1: kind of from the street view. You're seeing inside the window,

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Speaker 1: and the dude's yelling in his house and you're saying,

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Speaker 1: Lesson called for Little do you know the kid just

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Speaker 1: sprayed spaghetti sauce all over the walls after he warned

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Speaker 1: him not to. There's a good reason he's in there yelling,

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Speaker 1: is my point. You're not in the house. You don't know.

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Speaker 1: You have not the slightest clue. Well, you also didn't

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Speaker 1: know what was going on in this game, and you, also,

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Speaker 1: from your couch, cannot possibly fathom what it takes to

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Speaker 1: compete at the highest levels of the sport. Otherwise you'll

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Speaker 1: get run over It's like you're sitting there watching Predator

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Speaker 1: and the dude's standing on the bridge slicing his chest

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Speaker 1: up and with a machete, and you're saying, well, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Yeah, from the

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Speaker 1: living room in a little Rock, Arkansas, it doesn't make

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Speaker 1: a lot of sense. Just like in the living room

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Speaker 1: watching Dan Lanny go off pregame, it may occur to

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Speaker 1: you that that's a little over the top, that seems

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Speaker 1: a little performative. That's Dan Lanning dude. And after the

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Speaker 1: Ohio State game the other night, that's Ryan Day. If anything,

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Speaker 1: what happened is both of those dudes to a certain

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Speaker 1: extent sort of allowed the curtain to be peeled open

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Speaker 1: or alternate point of view. Based on the fact that

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Speaker 1: we have cameras in every square inch of a stadium

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Speaker 1: now with microphones, you got to see some stuff that

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Speaker 1: happens pretty frequently that you just aren't normally privy to.

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Speaker 1: You don't normally get to see that it happens a

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Speaker 1: lot like what you saw is not out of the norm.

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Speaker 1: I promise you it's not out of the norm. Did

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Speaker 1: you see Lanning's players? Did you do you see how

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Speaker 1: well within the norm his attitude seemed for them, and

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Speaker 1: if not all the time, certainly that was within the

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Speaker 1: theme of what the attitude had been like around that

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Speaker 1: program that week. So I'm I'm watching it and I

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Speaker 1: appreciate it, and I had no problem with either one

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Speaker 1: of them. But my point is, even if I did

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Speaker 1: personally not really job with it, I don't care because

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Speaker 1: they got the performances that they need to out of

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Speaker 1: their team. That's their job, Like Landing just said, that's

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Speaker 1: their job. Also with Ryan Day, I'm so interested after

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Speaker 1: this whole thing where and I did not expect to

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Speaker 1: say this. Ryan Day comments on lou Holtz. Lou Holtz

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Speaker 1: responds to Ryan Day. I should note lou Holtz brought

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Speaker 1: it up before Ryan Day ever commented on him. I

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Speaker 1: told you, I don't really think it's a lou Holts thing.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a collective outside noise thing. With Ryan Day,

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Speaker 1: I'm really interested to see how his team responds because

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Speaker 1: I saw them play the other night. They win a

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Speaker 1: game that was defending of a slugfest in nature. That

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Speaker 1: has not been their mo under Ryan Day. They've had

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Speaker 1: elite quarterback play most of the time under him, so

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Speaker 1: they've been able to run it up on teams. Well

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Speaker 1: they didn't run it up the other night. They still won.

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Speaker 1: It's a testament to Ohio State. Now you saw what

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Speaker 1: he said. I'm sure by now you've seen what he

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Speaker 1: said the other night and called out a lot of

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Speaker 1: people who have questioned his team. He was just the

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Speaker 1: adrenaline's flowing. Man, it's live TV. You never get to say, hey,

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Speaker 1: hold on, can we do that again? You don't get

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Speaker 1: to say that we're live pal, as Jim Ross once said.

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Speaker 1: So what I want to see is how his team responds.

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Speaker 1: You know, because a lot of the criticism that Ryan

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Speaker 1: Day has incurred, fair or not. I lean not far

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Speaker 1: more often than I do fair with him. It's really

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Speaker 1: on players to execute. You got to put him in

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Speaker 1: the right position. You got to develop them and coach

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Speaker 1: him up. But it's on players to execute. And if

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Speaker 1: I'm in that locker room, I watched that dude and

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Speaker 1: I want to run through a brick wall for him.

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Speaker 1: But also I think to myself, wow, man, these people

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Speaker 1: they trash him because I don't do my job. How

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Speaker 1: about I do my job? And I think that's what

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Speaker 1: you'll see, candidly it's what I've expected from Ohio State

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Speaker 1: the whole year. We'll see where the jpeople has them

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Speaker 1: a little bit later. But my point is when you

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Speaker 1: see these dudes and they seem a little bit over

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Speaker 1: the top, it's over the top to you based on

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Speaker 1: where you're viewing it at that particular moment. It's not

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Speaker 1: really over the top end their environment. Also, a lot

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Speaker 1: of times you think you're seeing chapter one of something,

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Speaker 1: you're really seeing chapter eight. That was a lot and

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Speaker 1: I mean a lot of metric ton of bs in

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Speaker 1: a lot of cases that led up to Ryan day

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Speaker 1: feeling the way he felt. That wasn't a lou Holtz thing.

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Speaker 1: That wasn't a week of the game thing. You're crazy

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Speaker 1: if you think that. Otherwise, he'd be like that every

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Speaker 1: week anytime someone ran in their mouth. He'd be like

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Speaker 1: that every week, landing same way. You just see that

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Speaker 1: every week. If that was the case, I just happened

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Speaker 1: to think there was good reason for both to behave

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Speaker 1: the way they did. I got no problem with it.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of folks who I respect in

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Speaker 1: some cases did have a problem with it. I don't

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Speaker 1: here because I don't even care if I have a

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Speaker 1: problem with it. As long as their teams perform the

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Speaker 1: way they need to, that is all that matters. And

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Speaker 1: then there's a period there's no yeah, but there's a's

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Speaker 1: all that matters. Let's move on, Let's predict some games.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to this. I wanted to. I wanted to

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Speaker 1: just be curious for a second. Let's just say this

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Speaker 1: was your show late Kick with fill in the blank

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Speaker 1: and the blank is your name. Which game would you

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Speaker 1: circle as the marquee game this weekend? Last weekend? If

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Speaker 1: it wasn't Ohio State, Notre Dame, it was FSU Clemson,

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Speaker 1: and I know that people had interested in Colorado Oregon.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think that was going to be a competitive game,

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Speaker 1: so I thought it was the other two this week? Though,

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Speaker 1: what do we have? We got? We got Florida Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: sneaky good game there. I'm going to the Auburn Georgia game.

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Speaker 1: Georgia Auburn game, say the home team last kids. We've

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Speaker 1: got USC, Colorado, We've got South Carolina Tennessee. Like, there's

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Speaker 1: some good games out there, But which one would you

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Speaker 1: consider the big game? I'll tell you the one I'm

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Speaker 1: starting with. USC goes to Colorado Saturday. Do we put

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Speaker 1: Colorado in wounded animal mode? Here? Do they qualify for that?

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Speaker 1: This is a noon eastern kickoff, that's nine am on

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Speaker 1: the West coast. Kids. Can you believe this? And Deon

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Speaker 1: and Company signed off on it. They said, yes, please.

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Speaker 1: You know I love a big new eastern time kickoff.

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Speaker 1: I've accepted the Deon tax in the sport. The Deon

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Speaker 1: tax is what you're dealing with when you see people

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Speaker 1: who don't know a lot about college football talk about

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Speaker 1: college football. I said to open the show tonight. It

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Speaker 1: is wild beyond imagination to me that this is the

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Speaker 1: second most popular sport in America. And there are national

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Speaker 1: sports media types who talk about college football like it's

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Speaker 1: foreign language. They are lost. The second you talk college

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Speaker 1: football with them, they are lost. It's amazing to me,

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Speaker 1: but it passes for a national sports conversation somehow. You

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Speaker 1: know what else though? Been talking about the Deon tax.

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Speaker 1: The Trojan tax is a thing. If Lincoln Riley wins

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Speaker 1: a national championship at USC, you'll find out about the

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Speaker 1: Trojan tax. Because if there's a college football team in

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles, California performing at a very high level, I

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Speaker 1: know because I've seen it happen before. You got all

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Speaker 1: kind of folks who have no clue. You've got folks

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Speaker 1: who could not talk themselves out of a wet paper

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Speaker 1: bag of college football conversation all of a sudden with

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Speaker 1: a megaphone in front of their face, and it's like,

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Speaker 1: fight on, fight on, Fight on. There is a trojan tax.

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Speaker 1: It's a pleasure to pay it because that means you're winning.

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Speaker 1: By the way, So we talk about the freeze point

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Speaker 1: sometimes on the show. The freeze point basically, if you've

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Speaker 1: got a big point spread like we have on this game,

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Speaker 1: the freeze point is the minimum baseline that you have

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Speaker 1: to be able to work at as a team to

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Speaker 1: have a shot to win a game. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to consider Colorado has a shot in this game. That's

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Speaker 1: why we're going to break it down. What I learned

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Speaker 1: from the Oregon game was nothing that I didn't think

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Speaker 1: I already knew. So Colorado cannot protect the quarterback right now,

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Speaker 1: and we've saw that, and we've seen that though that

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Speaker 1: wasn't anything new. Colorado is not a run first team

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Speaker 1: by any stretch. We knew that already, so that was

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Speaker 1: nothing new that the Oregon game presented to us. Colorado

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Speaker 1: struggles to stop the run. That is nothing new. We've

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Speaker 1: seen that so far this year. So with all that

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Speaker 1: working against you, how do you upset USC? How do

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Speaker 1: you find a path? USC second in FBS right now

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Speaker 1: in rush yards per attempt, So if you're struggling to

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Speaker 1: stop it already and they got the cats they do

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Speaker 1: in the backfield, doesn't sound like it, boz Well. Colorado

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Speaker 1: allowing the eighth or the ninth highest run rate in

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Speaker 1: the country right now, not too good. USC sixth best

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Speaker 1: pressure rate. Colorado has allowed the most sacks in FBS

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Speaker 1: right now, So it makes sense why there's a three

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Speaker 1: plus touchdown spread on this game. What has to happen

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Speaker 1: in the interest of fairness here, if Colorado pulls this upset,

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Speaker 1: what has to happen First? They need the early jolt.

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Speaker 1: They can't be getting down seven, fourteen to twenty one

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Speaker 1: nothing like they did against Oregon. That could happen via

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Speaker 1: a pop pass yards after catch. It could be a

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Speaker 1: special teams thing. Defense has forced a lot of turnovers,

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Speaker 1: they got a lot of takeaways. So whatever the case

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Speaker 1: may be, they got to get home crowd involved. They

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Speaker 1: don't have to work against the same stuff they did

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Speaker 1: on the road last week. Colorado has forced eleven turnovers

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Speaker 1: this year. That's the good news. Bad news is if

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Speaker 1: you think you're gonna do it through the air, Kayleb.

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Speaker 1: Williams has not thrown an interception yet, and if you

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Speaker 1: find out that you can run it early on Colorado

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Speaker 1: and I figure USC may have a fair amount of

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Speaker 1: success there. I don't know how many risks they're gonna

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Speaker 1: feel like they need to take. They're gonna need some

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Speaker 1: help from USC though, to be there in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll need some help here. But what about

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Speaker 1: USC's defense, because this is the shot for Colorado here.

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Speaker 1: If they're in it in the fourth quarter, it's probably

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Speaker 1: because they've won the hidden yardage thing. But also I

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Speaker 1: was totally puzzled, still am by the USC Arizona State

404
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,479
Speaker 1: outcome last week. Arizona State has no players left and

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Speaker 1: USC never really pulled away from him at all. They

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Speaker 1: allowed USC allowed twelve plays of fifteen plus yards to

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Speaker 1: Arizona State. I can assure you if Arizona State can

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Speaker 1: do that, Colorado can do that. And we'll know early,

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Speaker 1: will know early if they're popping big passes or if

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Speaker 1: it's underneath stuff and its yards after catch, we'll know early.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's the kind of thing that us

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Speaker 1: He's going to give up early and then tighten up

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Speaker 1: as the game goes on. It's what I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: tell you. Shadorah Sanders is a seventy nearly a seventy

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Speaker 1: seven percent completion guy this year. So if he's if

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Speaker 1: he looks like he's on early and then that crowd

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Speaker 1: kind of gets behind him and USC looks a little discombobulated,

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Speaker 1: could be four quarter game. Let's take a look what

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Speaker 1: the model thinks. I already told you Vegas has this

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Speaker 1: at USC minus twenty one and a half. That's right

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Speaker 1: where we have it. We got USC minus twenty one.

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Speaker 1: I am a believer that Colorado, coming back home after

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Speaker 1: dealing with what they dealt with last week, will respond

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Speaker 1: Travis Hunter still not playing here, but I do think

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Speaker 1: USC will win this. I think Colorado will find a

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Speaker 1: way to cover this. I think there'll be an inspired

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Speaker 1: effort enough and also the opportunity for a backdoor cover

428
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 1: enough to where I'll take USC to win. I will

429
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 1: take Colorado to cover. I don't think it's quite as

430
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: lopsided as it was last week. You're talking currently about

431
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 1: the number one versus the number nine team when it

432
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 1: comes to odds to win the PAC twelve Championship. Academy

433
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors presents this show to you free of charge.

434
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 1: Academy Sports and Outdoors is your one stop shop for

435
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 1: all things outdoor sporting goods plus. Academy Sports and Outdoors

436
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,120
Speaker 1: also when it comes to the plus has a lot

437
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: of things that you probably don't realize. They have more

438
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 1: important to me this time of year because this time

439
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 1: of year, you're starting to get into fall, which precedes winter,

440
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,400
Speaker 1: and that means you could do anything from camping to grilling.

441
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: You could be totally overhauling your wardrobe. They've got it

442
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 1: all for you, and they've also got it on Academy

443
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 1: dot Com. If you can't get there in person, and

444
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 1: I stress to you guys all the time, go in

445
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: person if you can, because it always exceeds expectation and

446
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 1: it just makes you feel good. You go from just

447
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: seeing it on this little screen behind me every week.

448
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,959
Speaker 1: It's not that little bit immunity, but you go from

449
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: seeing it on the screen to seeing it in person.

450
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 1: It does things to you it's a magical experience. I

451
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 1: don't know any of our viewers have ever gone to

452
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: Academy dot Com or Academy Sports and Outdoors in person

453
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 1: and hit me up and said, you know, little underwhelmed

454
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 1: most of the time. It's hey, I thought you were

455
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: lying when you said they had everything I need. Voila. Look,

456
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: I found some mittens or whatever the case may be.

457
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 1: And as always, they got big leak chew in the

458
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: checkout line. Academy Sports and Outdoors. We appreciate them. As always.

459
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: Let's roll on. I've got the ultra rare I mean

460
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: ultra rare post it. Pop here, Colin, here's your endpoint.

461
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: This little post it in my hand has terrible news

462
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 1: for one team in the SEC West. So I am

463
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 1: going to Georgia Auburn Saturday. I will be there on

464
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 1: the planes the once upon a Saturday tour in tow

465
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: and it's a fourteen and a half point spread right now.

466
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 1: How much of the country has watched Georgia? How many

467
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 1: I know you may have seen highlights. How many of

468
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 1: you have watched this team this year? I don't think

469
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: that many of you have. Well, before I talk about Georgia,

470
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: there's a little post it in my hand that has

471
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: a stat that's quite frankly, a little unbelievable. This is

472
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: courtesy of Brandon Zimmerman. Auburn has been under one hundred

473
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: passing yards in their last five games against Power five competition.

474
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 1: That is ineptitude that dates back to last year. Obviously

475
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 1: that I read it now, I'm gonna throw that posted

476
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 1: away for the sake of my friends in the greater

477
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 1: Lee County area. That's brutal. So obviously that would be

478
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 1: a padlock sty. We got to reverse that this Saturday.

479
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 1: Georgia flipping the script. Now, Georgia has played UT Martin,

480
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: they played Ball State South Carolina, where they trailed fourteen

481
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 1: to three before pulling away in the second half, and

482
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 1: they've played UAB. They've won six straight versus Auburn. Is

483
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 1: this their ignition moment? Like Georgia has not played at

484
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,719
Speaker 1: a national championship level yet. I don't think they have.

485
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: I think they're capable of it, though. They are one

486
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: of several teams that at any given point could just

487
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: just take off. They just ramp up and all of

488
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: a sudden, Oh there's the Georgia that I expected in August.

489
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 1: There's the Georgia I expected coming out of spring. As always,

490
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 1: when we're looking in the game with a double digit spread,

491
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 1: we got to make the case if the upset happens,

492
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 1: what would have to happen. Well, the situationals would have

493
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: to work against Georgia. So the first thing is, I

494
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: think a lot of people circle this game number one

495
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 1: because it's the Deep South's oldest rivalry. Number two on

496
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: a much more national level. If you circle this game

497
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: and you live in El Paso or San Angelo or

498
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: Odessa or Lubbock or any of a number of small

499
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,959
Speaker 1: to mid sized Texas towns for some reason, you probably

500
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 1: circled it because it's Georgia's first road test. It's a

501
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: conference game, but it's also their first road test, and

502
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: you never really know in this sport until you take

503
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: your operation on the road what you have, especially if

504
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: you've got a new offensive coordinator and a new quarterback.

505
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: It's part of that operation. So it's taken apart lesser

506
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: teams before. Jordenhair Stadium really really charged environment. If you

507
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 1: do what Penn State did to him last year, you

508
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 1: silence the crowd and they spill out of their early

509
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:39,719
Speaker 1: But if you don't do that. In other words, if

510
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: Georgia allows this Saturday what South Carolina did to them,

511
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 1: and it's Auburn going into the half with a fourteen

512
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: to three lead, who you've rarely heard noise like you

513
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 1: hear in the second half at Jordenhair Stadium, if that

514
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: were to happen, Also, we need to have Auburn in

515
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: the wounded animal mode. They just look terrible against A

516
00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: and M. Now, I know a lot of you watched

517
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: that and you say, well, if Auburn looked terrible against

518
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 1: A and M, no way they can beat Georgia. What

519
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 1: I saw is a team looks so terrible offensively, I

520
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: don't see any incentive for them to maintain. I think

521
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 1: there will be changes at the way they handle quarterback,

522
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: like maybe we'll see Robbie Ashford Saturday, and I don't

523
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: know that that's total blind statement for me. I also

524
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: think the way they call plays, Hugh Freeze talked about

525
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 1: this is the way they call plays. I think there'll

526
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: be a lot of adjustment. There's no guarantee that works,

527
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: please understand me. But a lot of times sometimes you

528
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: just roll the dice out there and they come up

529
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: the way you need them. That would need to happen

530
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: for Auburn, and you need to have some weak spots

531
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: for Georgia that maybe the country hasn't seen that you

532
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 1: expose and the moment exposes and the environment exposes. Now,

533
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 1: Auburn's defense has eight takeaways this year. That's tied for

534
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: most of the ACC or the SEC. I don't know

535
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: where it would land them in the ACC. But Georgia's

536
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 1: first test here with a team that can run the

537
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,439
Speaker 1: ball and is dedicated to running the ball, That's what

538
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: I'm most interested to watch because I here's what I think.

539
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 1: I think Georgia will pass the test. I never know.

540
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: I never know until I actually get to see it.

541
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 1: Two things though, that make me feel good about Georgia

542
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 1: this week. Number one, this is the moment they could

543
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: find their pass rush. Now, if you've watched the Georgia games,

544
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 1: you probably could explain why their sack rate is pretty low.

545
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: I know sacks are not the end all be all,

546
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 1: just it makes more sense to a mass audience to

547
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: talk about sacks rather than have a rate and pressure rate.

548
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 1: So when your stats are all in a line and

549
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: there's no you know, there's no big offset. One versus

550
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: the other. I'm just going to talk about sacks because

551
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 1: more people identify with sacks. George's got five sacks through

552
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: four games this year. That's low by their standard. Now

553
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 1: they've also faced a bunch of teams getting the ball

554
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: out really quickly this week. I am very interested to

555
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: watch because Auburn has allowed a ten point six percent

556
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 1: sack rate this year that is twelfth worst in FBS.

557
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: So there is a world where Georgia doubles their sack

558
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 1: total in one afternoon this Saturday. There's a world where

559
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 1: that happens. Also, the Georgia ground game could emerge this Saturday.

560
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: Auburn is allowing one hundred and thirty four rush yards

561
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 1: per game. That is the second worst number out of

562
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: all the teams in the SEC. So if pass rush

563
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: shows up for Georgia all of a sudden, if the

564
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: run game pops for six and a half yards per carry,

565
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 1: it's going to be a good afternoon for the Bulldogs. Therefore,

566
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 1: Auburn needs the game to be ugly. In years past,

567
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: with the styles of these two teams, it was Georgia

568
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: that wanted to ugly up the game. It's not here.

569
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: It's not because George's got the better offense at least

570
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: to this point this year, even with a new quarterback,

571
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: even with a new OC. So it's Auburn that needs

572
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 1: to lean on defense. Crazy we're saying that about a

573
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: Hugh Freeze team, but it's Auburn that needs to lean

574
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: on defense, lean on home field, maybe force some mistakes

575
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 1: from Carson back and then just kind of see what

576
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: happens there. They need the South Carolina script to repeat,

577
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: but instead of being on the road in Athens, it's

578
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 1: Auburn at home. Let's take a look at what the

579
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: model thinks. The Vegas number right now is Georgia minus

580
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half. I always love teams coming off

581
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: a loss coming back home. Auburn fits that description here

582
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: they are playing a team that hasn't been on the

583
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: road yet this year. I think George is gonna win

584
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: this game. I think their offensive line is going to

585
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: provide the single biggest mismatch in this game. I think

586
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: they'll be able to run the ball effectively. But also

587
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: because of the style and because of the fight, I

588
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: think they're gonna get out of Auburn. I actually don't

589
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 1: think they're gonna pull away to the degree it would

590
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: take for them to cover. So I'm gonna take Georgia

591
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: to win. I will take Auburn to cover if you're

592
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: giving me fourteen and a half and the model for

593
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: the record if you're listening on podcast degrees, because it

594
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: has Georgia minus twelve the odds to win the SEC Championship.

595
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: Right now, George is still number one, Auburn number ten.

596
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: And we will be there Saturday. And I just received

597
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: word before we went on air. The Once Upon a

598
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 1: Saturday Tour shirts for this game are within eighty three

599
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: of breaking our record so far this year. And I

600
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: know our audience, especially down in that part of the country,

601
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: I can safely say we're going to break that record.

602
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 1: It's on the screen right now, and if you're listening

603
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: on podcasts, just go to petstatemterial dot com. It's right there.

604
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: It is one week only after Saturday night. That one

605
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: goes into the history books. You can never buy it again.

606
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: And we are very very excited, as we always are.

607
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: It's kind of a homecoming. Get to stay in my

608
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: hometown of Columbus, Georgia, well sports in Georgia, just north

609
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: of Columbus. This Friday night in advance of the game.

610
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: Looking forward to seeing everyone down there. All right, let's

611
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: move on, game predictions continue. Appreciate you guys. If you're

612
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 1: watching live, you know I should throw this not a disclaimer,

613
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: but I should throw this reminder out. I have no

614
00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: problem with anyone coming into the comments on Sunday and

615
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: talking about whether a pick was good or bad. But

616
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: if you're coming in there to talk about how a

617
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: pick was bad, you better have record of having given

618
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: your prediction on the game. Because if you don't, let

619
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: me tell you what the most played out statement on

620
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: the face of the earth is. And if you're guilty

621
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: of this, just stop for your own sake. Stop. People

622
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: who say this aged poorly after the benefit of hindsight

623
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: are I'm not gonna say you are a loser. You

624
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: are exhibiting loser tendencies. As Memo always said, smart people

625
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: can do casual things. Casuals rarely do smart things. You're

626
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: probably a smart person guilty of casual behavior. There a

627
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: blind monkey can tell you a pick was bad. If

628
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: the blind monkey gets to witness the game, they wouldn't

629
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: watch it because they're blind. No one cares about you

630
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: coming in here on Sunday and telling me a pick

631
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: was bad. Go on record yourself. If you're on record yourself,

632
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: if you put your own self out there, be my

633
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: guest swing away. Other than that, your comments getting deleted

634
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,959
Speaker 1: and you'll probably get blocked from the channel. It's not

635
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: that I'm thin skin. Look my skin is just as

636
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: thick as anyone else's. But it clutters up the comment section.

637
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: And if I'm sitting on a plane on no sleep

638
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: and I'm scrolling through that, I can only look at

639
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: that so many times. Okay, very scroogeish attitude for me.

640
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: Right now, Christmas three months from yesterday, Get the shopping done.

641
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: LSU versus Old miss is I think the sleeper game

642
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: of this Saturday. It is a six o'clock Eastern time kick. Yeah,

643
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: so five o'clock local time there in Oxford. I can

644
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: go ahead and tell you the model is going haywire

645
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 1: on this one. So it's the first time these teams

646
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: have met in a Top twenty matchup since two thousand

647
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 1: and three. That's Eli Manning in Oxford, Mississippi. The last

648
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: seven games, LSU has averaged forty two point three points

649
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 1: per game. What does that all mean? Absolutely nothing. I

650
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: just wanted to throw it out there. How does Old

651
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: Miss avoid a repeat of last year? If you'll think

652
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: back to last year, in this game, Jayden Daniels went off.

653
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 1: He went off nearly four hundred yards through the air,

654
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: five touchdown passes. LSU pulled away. They won forty five

655
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: to twenty. My advice and I'm gonna say it's slow,

656
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: so everyone hears it. Score a bunch of points. Just

657
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: score more. If you're Old Miss. They didn't score last week.

658
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 1: They didn't score enough in this game last year. Score

659
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: And it's got to be with Jackson Dart. And if

660
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: you go back and watch LSU last week, they had

661
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: trouble put an Arkansas away. I'll tell you what gave

662
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: him trouble. kJ Jefferson with his legs made a bunch happen.

663
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: That doesn't always just mean on the ground either. It

664
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: means extending plays and then throwing the ball over the top.

665
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: That stuff messed with LSU last week. Jackson Dart can

666
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: do the same thing. He did not do it against

667
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 1: BAMA effectively enough last week. LSU's not as good defensively

668
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: as Alabama. So maybe it happens this Saturday. LSU's gonna

669
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: be able to score like, you cannot be counting on

670
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 1: getting into the fourth quarter and it being a rock

671
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: fight in a sand pit. That's not happening. So I'm

672
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: assuming I'm gonna need thirty one plus to win it.

673
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: That's what I assume against LSU. And if I don't,

674
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: I don't, that's great. I gotta have Jackson Dart be

675
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: the most important player in this game. I gotta have

676
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 1: my wide receivers healthy. I gotta have Quinn Shawn Judkins

677
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: healthy at running back or as healthy as he's been,

678
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: and there's reason to believe that he's probably there for

679
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 1: Old Miss. But if all that's in place, then can

680
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: LSU do what Alabama did? It'd be tough. What Alabama

681
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: did is they held almost to fifty six rushing yards.

682
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: They pressure Jackson Dart, They sacked him five times, They

683
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: got after him all afternoon, and they made him make

684
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: high leverage throws and it didn't work. And Alabama didn't

685
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 1: even have score a whole lot. It did not work.

686
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 1: LSU's pressure rate is second last in the SEC, which

687
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 1: of course makes no sense because they appear to have

688
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: disruptors all over the place. I know they've been playing

689
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: a certain kind of way down there. Whatever, If you

690
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 1: don't get after Jackson Dart, he will beat you Saturday.

691
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: So I would advise attempting everything you can to get

692
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: after Jackson Dart. The game's going to be decided, I

693
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 1: think on third downs. LSU's offense is fourth in FBS

694
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 1: on third downs. Right now, they've been very very good

695
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,879
Speaker 1: on third down Ole Miss not so much offensively, third

696
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:31,439
Speaker 1: worst in the SEC. Now on any given Saturday, that's

697
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: like turnovers that can totally invert. But all we have

698
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: to go on is what we have to go on.

699
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 1: So right now LSU looks to be the team with

700
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: the edge. But I'm telling you, as I said, the

701
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: last two games we predicted, and I'm going to say

702
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: it again, teams that lose and are coming home off

703
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: that loss, I'm always attracted to. It is one of

704
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:57,280
Speaker 1: the sicker parts of my personality. I When everyone else

705
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: is speeding out of town, I'm Jeff gold Bloom and

706
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:05,439
Speaker 1: Independence Day with my elderly father there in the passenger seat,

707
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 1: typing away on a laptop made in nineteen eighty four.

708
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: We're driving towards the issue. We're driving towards the problem.

709
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: Great movie, great, great and very realistic. Film Independence Day

710
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 1: very true to life. If aliens invaded, it would be

711
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: very true to life. I think that I need to

712
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: take a look at what the model says on this game,

713
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: because Vegas has LSU minus two and a half and

714
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: that probably doesn't surprise you. LSU a slight favorite. What

715
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: you need to know is the model disagrees. The model

716
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: thinks the wrong team is favored. Really, so the model

717
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: has ole Miss minus one and they think I hate

718
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: them in Oxford? Did you know that Colin and Jesse

719
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: they think I hate them in Oxford? You couldn't be

720
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: further from the truth. I'll leave it at that, you

721
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 1: couldn't be further from the truth. I am taking ole

722
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 1: Miss to win this game outright. I think they're going

723
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 1: to pull a mild up set there, and I think

724
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,879
Speaker 1: it's going to because Jackson Dart and I think it's

725
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: going to be pretty wild. I think it has Game

726
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: of the Month potential and we've had some crazy games already.

727
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 1: I think that ole Miss is going to somehow find

728
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: a way. And if they do, is that right, Jesse.

729
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: LSU's ranked thirteenth right now. If they do, maybe Lane

730
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 1: Kiffen ups that stat that we read the other night,

731
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: like one in eighteen versus teams that finished with nine

732
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: wins are more. I think ole Miss is going to

733
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: find a way to win this game, and if if

734
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 1: they do, now that just throws the SEC West into

735
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 1: a blender because ole Miss has already got a conference loss,

736
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 1: They've got a division loss to Alabama. They can't lose

737
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: Saturday or else they're for all intents and purposes, they're

738
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 1: out of the division race. LSU's not out of anything

739
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 1: if they do lose Saturday, though, because their loss is

740
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 1: out of conference. Right now, LSU is spotless in conference play.

741
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: It would just it would just be very very chaotic.

742
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 1: If LSU wins this game, you kind of maintain that

743
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 1: trajectory of this Alabama les you collision course. And I'm

744
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: not saying either one of them is guaranteed to go

745
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: undefeated between now and then, But if LSU does lose,

746
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean slightly that they do boil. Boy, what

747
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 1: a mess we have in the SEC West. I will

748
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 1: get texts. I got about five dedicated LSU friends who

749
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 1: watch this show, and if I pick against them, and

750
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: sometimes I do, I hear from them and I know

751
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 1: it's coming That's fine though, because if you think I'm

752
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 1: taking heat for that way, do you see what I'm

753
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: about to show you? It's jp pull time need to

754
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 1: take up. You need excuse me for a second. I

755
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: need to take a long sip from the chalice. I'd

756
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 1: also like to take this opportunity to address a sound

757
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: you've been hearing. Jesse calls it whal mode. When you

758
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: hear this, Jesse thinks that sounds like a whale clearing

759
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: its blowhole out or whatever you call that thing. It's spout.

760
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 1: Sometimes in spring and fall, I get a stuff he

761
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: knows on air, and I don't want to take time

762
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,240
Speaker 1: to clear it because that would just make me too normal.

763
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 1: So instead of saying excuse me, ah blowing my nose

764
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: like a normal person, I just find very sneaky ways

765
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 1: to go right in the middle of a sentence and

766
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: hope that you think it's just feedback. Hopefully you think

767
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: Colin didn't wire the microphone right. As I've told you

768
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: many times, I just want all the credit. I'm not

769
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: interested in blame or criticism. I just want the credit.

770
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: And so up until this point I have hidden from

771
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: you the fact that that's actually me. But I thought

772
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 1: about it today and I looked in Director Colin's innocent

773
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 1: doe eyes and I said, he doesn't deserve to shoulder

774
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 1: this burden. So yep, that's me. Blame it on the allergies,

775
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: Blame it on the transition of seasons, whatever the case

776
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: may be. Blame it on the fact that we're live.

777
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: I could have Bradley the associate edit this out in post,

778
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 1: but we don't like to operate with a safety net.

779
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: The college football playoffs expanding, every team's going to have

780
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 1: a safe under them, not us. Not us. We're going

781
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 1: tightrope one hundred feet off the ground, and if we fall,

782
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 1: you know, if he dies, he dies. That's our model

783
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: around here, not literally because HR is steadfast against it.

784
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: But HR leaves the building about five FIVET fifteen every day,

785
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: So we're good. Okay, JP Pole time, JP Poles not

786
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 1: a ranking, it's a power rating. People cannot make that

787
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 1: clear enough. Literally, I can't make it clear enough. No

788
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 1: matter how many times I say it, people will come

789
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: at me. This is here, Hello. I would like to

790
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: introduce you to the model. If you're listening on podcast,

791
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,959
Speaker 1: that is the model, and the model spits this out,

792
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: and the model is really good at what it does.

793
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 1: It wins money for us every year, and I have

794
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: it once a week. Spit out ratings, not rankings. Merit

795
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,479
Speaker 1: doesn't matter your record, doesn't matter, who you've beaten, really

796
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 1: doesn't matter in terms of how it assigns you are rating.

797
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 1: All it cares about is who it would favor against. Two.

798
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 1: It's got power ratings for every team in America and

799
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: we get the one through twenty five from it every week.

800
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: So doesn't mean I agree with it. There are a

801
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: couple of very notable exceptions. My opinion versus the model

802
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: even tonight last week was just outright egregious. Though, So

803
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: let's see how far the model has come back to

804
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:15,879
Speaker 1: the crowd. Here twenty five through twenty one UCLA still

805
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 1: power rating. They're number twenty five, Ole Miss drops seven

806
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: spots to number twenty four, Kansas State climbs to number

807
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: twenty three TCU. The model is just higher on Jesse.

808
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: Is TCU ranked in the ap that you know of? No,

809
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 1: they're not, okay, So the models higher on TCU. It

810
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: sees something in Fort Worth. I don't, but the model does.

811
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 1: And the model normally is ahead of the curve a

812
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 1: little bit. So we'll see Florida is number twenty one

813
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: and they're playing Kentucky this week. We move on. I

814
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 1: got no huge issue with anything there. North Carolina is

815
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: at twenty now. If you watched Friday Night Lines last week,

816
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: the model was really really high on the idea that

817
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: Pitt was going to cover against North Carolina and they didn't.

818
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: So you know, the model shortchanged North Carolina last week.

819
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: Maybe it still is. Oregon State dropped five spots. I

820
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 1: think the model looked and said, you really let Washington

821
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 1: State go off on you like that. Now. I looked

822
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 1: and said, excuse me, model, where's Washington State? It did

823
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 1: not power rate them. There are twenty five teams the

824
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 1: model would favor over Washington State right now. Again, this

825
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: is not Paate State sportsbook. I don't have to post

826
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,359
Speaker 1: these numbers, but the model kind of on an island there.

827
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: But you know, the more I look at Connolly's numbers

828
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 1: and some of those other guys, they kind of agree.

829
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 1: Miami's at eighteen and Texas A and M's at seventeen.

830
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: And yet again you need go back only two weeks,

831
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: three weeks now to remember that Miami hung nearly half

832
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: one hundred on Texas A and M. The model says,

833
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: don't care neutral field tomorrow, Texas A and M is

834
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 1: still favored, I think by three tenths of a point,

835
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: so negligible. But I'm I'm telling you I'd picked Miami

836
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 1: in that game, and I'd wager uncomfortable amounts of money

837
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 1: on it. Uh agree to disagree. It's just that normally

838
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: you say that to a human, I'm saying it to

839
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: an inanimate object over here. Clemson is number sixteen. They

840
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 1: did not fall hardly at all because the you know,

841
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 1: the postgame win expectancy indicated Clemson wins the game against

842
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: Florida State more often than they lose it. So we

843
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: didn't punish them at all for that. Next up top fifteen.

844
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: Utah's number fifteen. Judging by the reputation of this show,

845
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,240
Speaker 1: I will just blindly assume we're too low on Utah.

846
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: I don't know how how low, but we're probably too

847
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 1: low on Utah. Ls US at fourteen. They dropped seven

848
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 1: spots one but drop seven spots. It's tough around here.

849
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: Tennessee is I don't get it. Don't ask me, don't

850
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: ask me. Tennessee climb nine spots up to thirteen, and

851
00:43:54,040 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 1: I got to tell you something I tampered. Did I tampered?

852
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,760
Speaker 1: The models higher on Tennessee than thirteen. And even Director

853
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 1: Colin would probably come in my ear right now, immunity

854
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 1: and say, nope, you're right, got to make us earn it.

855
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 1: We don't belong in the top ten. The model had

856
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: Tennessee in the top ten. I tampered. I'm telling you

857
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 1: I tampered, and normally that we get you some flag

858
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 1: from Tennessee fans. I think you'd kind of give me

859
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 1: a golf clap right now. You know, Tennessee's not a

860
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: top ten team right now, the model doesn't, but you do.

861
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's at twelve, unchanged. Notre Dame is at eleven, virtually unchanged.

862
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 1: We kind of just got the performance we thought we

863
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 1: would get from Notre Dame. They played right to the spread.

864
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 1: So any kind of odds making or power rating system

865
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 1: worth its salt. If you get the exact result that

866
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: the odds indicate you should get, means you don't change

867
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: the team at all. You don't bump them cause they

868
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: lost because they played exactly to your expectation. Top ten,

869
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 1: we have got Florida State at number ten. Got to

870
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 1: also tell you this. The model has Clemson above Florida

871
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: State by one tenth of a point, so it has

872
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:11,240
Speaker 1: them tied, and it had them that way last week.

873
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 1: And as I said, they played a game that went

874
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 1: to overtime. The post game win expectancy leaned Clemson, which

875
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 1: means nothing in the standings because a win is a

876
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 1: win by that metric, but in the odds making community

877
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: in the calculator community doesn't look at it that way. Well,

878
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 1: I tampered again because I'm putting Florida State above Clemson. Sorry,

879
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,879
Speaker 1: I'm just doing it. Michigan number nine, Penn State number eight.

880
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: I don't argue with people right now who have Penn

881
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 1: State as the number one team in the Big ten.

882
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: It's just that the model does not agree, and I'm okay,

883
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: So I don't have a strong enough pushback to tamper.

884
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 1: A third time. USC dropped to number seven confusing game

885
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 1: against Arizona State. The model noticed. The model punished bam

886
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 1: Is at number six. Bama's a team you need to

887
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 1: watch close this next couple of weeks. It's a team

888
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 1: that's capable of scaling ignition could turn at any moment,

889
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 1: or the car battery could be dead at any moment.

890
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 1: Literally anything can happen with Alabama. But you do not

891
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: drop a team that talented in the odds making world.

892
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 1: You just don't. I know already the comments are gonna

893
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 1: say Bama's way too high. If this was the ap pole, Yes,

894
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: they're too high. It's not the ape pole. It's not

895
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: a ranking. Let's go top five. Washington's at number five

896
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 1: too low for me. I look at these teams. I'm

897
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 1: gonna read five to one. So Washington's five, Oregon's four,

898
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:38,320
Speaker 1: Georgia's three, Texas is two, and Ohio State's won. Man,

899
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: if I put Washington on the field with some of

900
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,760
Speaker 1: these teams, they'll be terrified right now. So Washington's five,

901
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: and that's all well and good. Here's the beautiful thing.

902
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 1: We get to see Oregon go to Washington in a

903
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I think two weeks from this Saturday,

904
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: Oregon goes to Seattle and maybe we go right along

905
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 1: with them. We've never been to Seattle and with any

906
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:07,359
Speaker 1: tour before on late kick, So we'll see Georgie's number three.

907
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: I said, Texas is number two. Ohio State maintains their

908
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 1: spot as the number one team. And as I was

909
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: walking out of Notre Dame Stadium, I told you this

910
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: Sunday night. I'll tell you one more time. Hat tip

911
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:20,840
Speaker 1: to the couple of fans in the stands there yelling

912
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,439
Speaker 1: Ohio State still number one? JP pole, Well, I told

913
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 1: you guys, probably and now absolutely yes, they are still

914
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: number one. I welcome comments, I welcome feedback. I'm just

915
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 1: telling you. Don't be asking me how so and so

916
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 1: is ranked over so and so. These aren't rankings. Don't

917
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 1: be asking me how so and so with this record

918
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 1: is ranked below so and so with that record. These

919
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: aren't rankings. I don't care about record. Already explained to

920
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 1: you the methodology. If you don't like it, great news.

921
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 1: They have the AP pole already ready for you. The

922
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: m Next up, we got a question. I got a

923
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,319
Speaker 1: couple more games to predict. Actually, I got one more

924
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 1: game to predict. I've got two more best bets to add,

925
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,240
Speaker 1: So hang with me. Good pace tonight. There was fear

926
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 1: within the hallways of this building that the show was

927
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:09,399
Speaker 1: going to go an hour and a half. I don't

928
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: think we're going quite that long tonight. Sorry, I'm just

929
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 1: thinking out loud right quick, Yeah, I'm gonna take a

930
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 1: sit from the chalice. Hold on, there we go, whale

931
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: noise and a sit from the chalice. Shut up, Jesse.

932
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: So this could be Jamie, it could be high me.

933
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 1: Either way, it's a question I don't like at j

934
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: Max thirty three said, how confident do you feel about

935
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 1: your conference title picks? And I know what you're trying

936
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 1: to do here. You're trying to make me angry. You

937
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 1: have successfully made me angry. Let's just go right to

938
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 1: the sorest point, and that is the Big Twelve. Will

939
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 1: not beat around the bush. It is time to face

940
00:48:54,320 --> 00:49:00,920
Speaker 1: this head on. I friends back in August out of boredom. Texas.

941
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: That's good, right, Texas is looking good. I predicted him

942
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 1: to win the Big Twelve. But I know what you're

943
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 1: thinking out there way you're saying, hold on, hold on,

944
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: hold on, that's not the problem. Who did you pick

945
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,359
Speaker 1: them to play against in the Big Twelve championship game?

946
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State? Texas versus Oklahoma State. It was so egregious

947
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:29,359
Speaker 1: that our own graphics department accidentally put Texas versus Oklahoma

948
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: on the graphic I had to make because they were

949
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: sure I meant Oklahoma. I didn't. I wish I did.

950
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: I didn't. Now that's what you know publicly. What you

951
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 1: don't know privately is I am the kid who tells

952
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 1: his parents you don't need to spank me. I already

953
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 1: spanked myself. It never works, but I used to do

954
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: it anyway. And I also want to tell you, guys,

955
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,880
Speaker 1: you don't need to criticize me. Yeah, I picked Oklahoma

956
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 1: State to play for the Big Twelve championship. You don't

957
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 1: need to hate on me. You don't need to criticize me.

958
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,720
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna tell you why. Surveillance caught footage earlier

959
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 1: today of what I've been putting my own self through.

960
00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 1: If you're disappointed in me, I'm tim times more disappointed

961
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 1: in myself. Colin, Do we have the footage? This is

962
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: how I've been walking around the building. And if you're

963
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 1: listening on podcast Sham, those are the letters that spell

964
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 1: the word shame plastered across my face. I can't even

965
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 1: see where I'm going. Some would argue that's the state

966
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 1: of mind that I made the prediction in to begin with.

967
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,840
Speaker 1: I don't feel good about it, Jamie slash himI, I

968
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: don't feel good about it at all. So if we

969
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: could just erase the state and I could just go

970
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: Texas Oklahoma, I will watch that game along with the

971
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: rest of you. In a couple of weeks, maybe we

972
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: see a rematch in Dallas. I'm sure that'd make the

973
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: league office ecstatic that those two play for the conference title.

974
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 1: In the way out the door. So I don't feel

975
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 1: good about it. In the ACC, I predicted Clemson versus

976
00:50:55,360 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: Florida State, I predicted Florida State to win. I still

977
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 1: feel good about that. Okay, So the good news here

978
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: is my conference champ picks are still faring very well.

979
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 1: It's just their opponents, like Clemson's not gonna play I

980
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,919
Speaker 1: don't think for the ACC title. We have still got

981
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 1: half a dozen undefeated teams in this conference, and not

982
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 1: one of them is Clemson. We've got Florida State obviously,

983
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:28,880
Speaker 1: North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville, and NC State are

984
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 1: all undefeated. Some of them haven't even played conference games yet,

985
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: they're all undefeated. Clemson's not overtaken all of them, I

986
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 1: don't think, so I just need Florida State to win

987
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 1: the conference at this point, I guess otherwise, I feel

988
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 1: terrible about myself come December. In the SEC, I don't

989
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,880
Speaker 1: have much to say right now because it was Bama

990
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 1: versus Georgia and it's still on track to be Bama

991
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: versus Georgia. Like they're still the favorites, respectively until something changes.

992
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 1: LSU has to come to Tuscaloosa. Bama's playing really good defense.

993
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 1: I just assume the offense will continue to find marginally

994
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 1: better versions of itself. There are the two odds on

995
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 1: favorites to win the SEC championship right now, so I'm

996
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:12,320
Speaker 1: still good on that one. We'll see. The PAC twelve

997
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 1: was and continues to be the toughest conference to handicap.

998
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: I had Oregon versus UCLA. Ucla let me down Saturday

999
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 1: when they went and lost to Utah, only giving up

1000
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:29,799
Speaker 1: fourteen and still losing tough could be an issue here,

1001
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: but I picked Oregon to win the conference. So they're

1002
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 1: right up there with USC as the they're not co favorites.

1003
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 1: USC is the slight favorite. Oregon and Washington have the

1004
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 1: same odds in the number two position right now there,

1005
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 1: and there was a lot of them. Three of them

1006
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 1: actually bunched up at the top. The demolition derby round

1007
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 1: robin like free for all scheduling. Chunk of Pac twelve

1008
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 1: play is still to come, so all these teams are

1009
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 1: still going to play each other except for UCLA. They

1010
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:01,720
Speaker 1: dodge a couple of the big boys, but they already

1011
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 1: have a conference loss, so we'll see how that works out.

1012
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 1: In the Big Ten h we got Ohio State winning

1013
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 1: the thing, and so far so good there. They have

1014
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 1: not played Penn State or Michigan yet. I had Ohio

1015
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 1: State versus Iowa, and while you may think, ooh gross,

1016
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:22,359
Speaker 1: I bet you want that Iowa pickback for hoops. Everybody

1017
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten West has a loss, and not

1018
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:28,360
Speaker 1: all of them are conference losses, but everyone's loss. Wisconsin's

1019
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:32,240
Speaker 1: the only team over there that doesn't have a conference loss.

1020
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 1: It's only September twenty sixth. This is a landfill of

1021
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 1: a division. They face Ohio State. By the way, do

1022
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: the Wisconsin Badgers. So I know that Washington State loss

1023
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,760
Speaker 1: doesn't look as bad as it once did, but man,

1024
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 1: it could still very well be Iowa. They got shut

1025
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: out last week. Penn State had more total plays than

1026
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 1: Iowa had total yards. That's playing legitimate competition. You don't

1027
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 1: face that in your division. You just as I said,

1028
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 1: it's a landfill of a division right now, and so

1029
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 1: Iowa could very well emerge from that. Whoever it is,

1030
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: it's your on. It's like going to a Sarah McLaughlin concert.

1031
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: That's what the Big Ten Championship game will be. Guaranteed.

1032
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 1: You might as well wheel the piano onto the twenty

1033
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 1: yard line. But in the meantime, we do have to

1034
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: play this thing out. It's the last year of divisions,

1035
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 1: Thank the Lord in the Big Ten. They're watching us

1036
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 1: in Evans, Georgia, Cyprus, Texas. And guess which town has

1037
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: re emerged on the Late Kick radar as of tonight. Pokatello,

1038
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 1: Idaho is back. Where have you guys been For a

1039
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 1: little while, we had check ins in Pocatello, Idaho. It

1040
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: became the official outpost of the show West of the Rockies,

1041
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 1: and we appreciate you guys. Got another game to break

1042
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 1: down here and then I got two added best bets.

1043
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys being tuned in live. Hey, make sure

1044
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 1: make sure you like the video. There's several thousand of

1045
00:54:57,560 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 1: you in here, and we're below a thousand likes, and

1046
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: those are poverty numbers and We're not a poverty show.

1047
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,279
Speaker 1: It may cost nothing to watch, but we're not a

1048
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 1: poverty show. I may wear the same shirt every week

1049
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,879
Speaker 1: and golf clap for the white T shirt being back,

1050
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: but we're not a poverty show. Oh but there are

1051
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 1: smudges on the chalice, so we need to watch this

1052
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 1: thing after the show. But we are not. I promise

1053
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 1: you we're not a poverty show. Let's continue. Florida versus

1054
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:29,280
Speaker 1: Kentucky is a noon Eastern kickoff on ESPN this Saturday.

1055
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,799
Speaker 1: And I know what you're thinking. I think I know

1056
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 1: what you're thinking. I think you're thinking, Uh, gotta lean

1057
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: Florida here, seems like they figured some things out against Tennessee.

1058
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 1: But I know what I'm thinking, and I'm thinking, I'm

1059
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 1: terrified for Florida this Saturday. You know why, Well, first off,

1060
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:49,240
Speaker 1: they gotta play Mark Stoops in Kentucky at home. Secondly,

1061
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 1: you know Florida is an underdog in this game, right,

1062
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:55,280
Speaker 1: Kentucky's favored by two and a half. Just a little

1063
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:58,160
Speaker 1: FYI for the rest of the casual world out there

1064
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: that thinks this would be an upset if Entucky won.

1065
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 1: What did Florida figure out? By the way, I sound

1066
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,440
Speaker 1: so hostile towards Florida. I picked Florida to beat Tennessee.

1067
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,839
Speaker 1: What did we learn? What did they figure out? Well,

1068
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 1: they figured out how to put Joe Milton in a

1069
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 1: blender passing the ball in the first half, which they did,

1070
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: and by the time they got some things figured out,

1071
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 1: it was too late. In Florida never let go of

1072
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 1: the lead, so they ruined Joe Milton in the first half.

1073
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:24,480
Speaker 1: They ruined Tennessee's chances to win that game. Devin Leary,

1074
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:27,280
Speaker 1: it's the first shot to see him on the national

1075
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 1: stage this year, transfer from NC State. Devin Leary is

1076
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 1: a much more capable passer than Joe Milton. Here is

1077
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 1: the problem. He hasn't necessarily shown that yet this year.

1078
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 1: There's a great big butt here, like he's got the potential.

1079
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 1: But man, here's some trivia that'll throw them for a

1080
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 1: loop if you drop this on Friday night with your buddies.

1081
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: Did you know the quarterback with the best completion percentage

1082
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 1: of all transfer portal quarterbacks is playing in this game

1083
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 1: and his name's Graham, not Devin Leary. What now? Yeah?

1084
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 1: I mean Graham Mertz is average and throwing about three

1085
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 1: yards through the air downfield. Yes, I'll grant you that,

1086
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 1: but that's what they're asking him to do. So good

1087
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 1: for Graham Mertz and gimme more if you're Devin Leary. Also,

1088
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 1: a fifty nine point five percent completion percentage with five

1089
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: picks puts him at thirteenth in the SEC. He's been

1090
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 1: turning the ball over. Now, maybe they're just tightening things

1091
00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 1: up because they've been playing inferior competition and that happens

1092
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 1: every year, and maybe they'll play their sharpest game of

1093
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 1: the year will Kentucky this Saturday. But it's another moment

1094
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 1: of truth for the Florida ground game. I'll tell you

1095
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 1: that they ran it for thirteen total yards against Utah. Sorry,

1096
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:43,439
Speaker 1: I had a hiccup. They came home a couple weeks

1097
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 1: later and ran it very effectively against Tennessee. Well, now

1098
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: you know what you get to face on the road.

1099
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 1: You get to face statistically the best run defense in

1100
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 1: the SEC. So far. Now it has been against questionable competition.

1101
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:03,479
Speaker 1: So that's what the moment of truth is about. Either

1102
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 1: Florida gets stoned at the line of scrimmage and Graham

1103
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 1: Mertz has to win the game. And I don't think

1104
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 1: you will or you got etn there clipping it at

1105
00:58:13,320 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 1: six point seven yards per carry. If he's sort of

1106
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 1: around that yearly average, well then then you can do

1107
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: some business in Lexington. What does the model think? Colin

1108
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 1: be goes Kentucky's favorite by two and a half. The

1109
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 1: model thinks that's slightly too rich. The model says this

1110
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 1: should be a pick em now. Billy Napier's one and

1111
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 1: four on the road in his last five games, Florida

1112
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 1: has lost eight of nine on the road. They are

1113
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 1: not nearly the team on the road. They are at home.

1114
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 1: This has got to change at some point. It's got

1115
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 1: to change. And so as hostile as I sound towards Florida,

1116
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 1: it's just because I expect more and you're gonna give

1117
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 1: me more because I think you're gonna win Saturday. I'm

1118
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 1: gonna take Florida to win. I will take the points

1119
00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 1: if you'll give them to me. I'm gonna take Florida

1120
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 1: to win. I'm gonna take Florida obviously the cover, and

1121
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a very tight game. Kentucky's

1122
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 1: got Utah vibes, like anytime you pick against them, it's

1123
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 1: a catch twenty two because they will then use that

1124
00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:14,919
Speaker 1: as fuel. And sometimes if you pick them, then people say, oh,

1125
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:17,760
Speaker 1: here you go picking Kentucky again. Kentucky's never gonna happen.

1126
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 1: Stop trying to make Kentucky happen, and I might just

1127
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 1: please leave me alone and go start your own show.

1128
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 1: So I'm saying Florida's gonna win. I'm saying Florida's gonna cover.

1129
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:27,520
Speaker 1: This is not a best bet by any stretch. I

1130
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:30,280
Speaker 1: have no money on this game. I'll just have eyes

1131
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:33,960
Speaker 1: on that game. But there are games I have money on,

1132
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: and here are six of them. So the other night

1133
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 1: Ramanudle Express we jumped on four games early. It's a

1134
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:43,479
Speaker 1: good thing because the line's moved. So we're on Iowa

1135
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: State plus twenty one. We're on Fresno minus twenty two

1136
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 1: and a half, Nebraska plus eighteen and a half, and

1137
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 1: San Diego State plus ten and a half. We are

1138
00:59:52,880 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 1: adding as of tonight after some line movement. Drum roll,

1139
00:59:56,840 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 1: please bring them Young plus one and a half. Believe

1140
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: that's a Friday night game, and we're adding Wyoming minus fourteen.

1141
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:10,720
Speaker 1: So Wyoming minus fourteen and b why you big twelve

1142
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 1: member BYU plus one and a half those are the

1143
01:00:13,280 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 1: added best bets tonight. I had an internal goal to

1144
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 1: get the show in in an hour, and we're in

1145
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 1: an hour and ten seconds in counting, so not too bad.

1146
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:24,440
Speaker 1: It's like five miles an hour of the speed limit.

1147
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 1: They won't pull you over for that, and so I

1148
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys. Make sure you like the video. Subscribe

1149
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 1: to the channel one Quick Favor. One Quick Favor Podcasts

1150
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 1: is doing really good numbers. Subscribe to it. If you haven't.

1151
01:00:37,120 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: I know a lot of you are listening right now

1152
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:41,400
Speaker 1: and you're just downloading the shows. Great, keep doing that.

1153
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,640
Speaker 1: Just do me the small favor of subscribing to the podcast,

1154
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 1: which does nothing to your experience, but it helps our

1155
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:50,120
Speaker 1: internal numbers. So thank you so much for that. For

1156
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 1: direct to Calum for producer Jesse, I'm Josh. Take care,

1157
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 1: have a great rest of your evening, and God bless