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Speaker 2: Let's head out to DC for the latest. When it
Speaker 2: comes to the potential budget. House Republicans past a budget
Speaker 2: blueprint on Tuesday, still has to go to the Senate.
Speaker 2: It looks like tax cut chances are rising, although it
Speaker 2: doesn't come without cuts to some major programs potentially. Eric
Speaker 2: Watson is a Bloomberg congressional reporter and joins us now.
Speaker 2: So first, Eric, just give us the lay of the land.
Speaker 2: What did the House pass yesterday?
Speaker 3: So this is a four point five trillion dollar tax
Speaker 3: cut blueprint. It calls for two trillion dollars and cuts
Speaker 3: to mandatory programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, and
Speaker 3: would raise the debt ceiling by four trillion dollars. This
Speaker 3: is the first step after it's if it was adopted
Speaker 3: by the Senate, then they would have to produce a
Speaker 3: bill that actually details the cuts. And as long as
Speaker 3: that bill adhere to the budget. It can pass the
Speaker 3: Senate with just fifty votes instead of sixty. This is
Speaker 3: called budget reconciliation. It's the way Obamacare was passed. It
Speaker 3: was the way the Inflation Reduction Act Green subsidies under
Speaker 3: Biden were passed. So it was really an achievement for
Speaker 3: Speaker Mike Johnson. The House Republican Conference has been very divided.
Speaker 3: You have moderates who are very worried about Medicaid cuts.
Speaker 3: You have conservatives who at the last minute put their
Speaker 3: votes and allow the bill to the budget to pass,
Speaker 3: but wanted even deeper cuts. They wanted to see this
Speaker 3: budget fully paid for itself. But Trump lobbied them and
Speaker 3: was back calling them at the last minute to get
Speaker 3: them to flip in a dramatic scene here last night.
Speaker 3: So this is a positive I will basically say, my
Speaker 3: assumption has been that the Trump tax cuts of twenty
Speaker 3: seventeen do get extended, but I was thinking it could
Speaker 3: be more like December, right up against the dead line.
Speaker 3: This makes it more likely that happens in May. We'll
Speaker 3: give businesses and individuals better heads up as far as
Speaker 3: tax planning. It's just a positive sign for the tax
Speaker 3: cuts overall.
Speaker 4: What are next steps?
Speaker 3: Eric, You know, the Senate is not really going to
Speaker 3: just put this House budget on the floor and pass it.
Speaker 3: They want to actually make larger tax cuts. They want
Speaker 3: to basically do something which is assume that the Trump
Speaker 3: tax cuts four trillion don't cost anything. This is called
Speaker 3: a baseline shift. That's very technical, but it would be
Speaker 3: kind of a budget gimmick, and then add a lot
Speaker 3: of things like a state tax repeal, you know, fullsome
Speaker 3: no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, you know,
Speaker 3: probably trying to make the tax cuts permanent rather than
Speaker 3: eight or nine years, which is what my estimate is
Speaker 3: of what the House bill would do as far as
Speaker 3: individual rate cuts. So they're going to make those changes.
Speaker 3: There's also more squeamishness among senators for actual spending cuts
Speaker 3: such as to medicaid, so they may bring that down.
Speaker 3: So I'm expecting substantial chain will be the backdoor negotiations,
Speaker 3: a compromise will emerge, and then we'll see if it
Speaker 3: can pass both the House and the Senate.
Speaker 5: Matt from Westchester writes in and asked, how about the
Speaker 5: salt tax deduction.
Speaker 3: There's you know, there's there's some runway to do that
Speaker 3: you know, on the House side. But I think that
Speaker 3: you know, basically the Senate would have to create more
Speaker 3: room or they would have to find deeper cuts. Now,
Speaker 3: there's a lot of options they can do in order
Speaker 3: to allow for salt. You know, you could do things
Speaker 3: on the tax side, make it more difficult to apply
Speaker 3: for a child tax credit, for example, or do a
Speaker 3: stock buyback tax increase. But you know, it's all going
Speaker 3: to be very controversial and create winners and losers. But
Speaker 3: certainly there's a group within the House Republican Conference from
Speaker 3: New York, New Jersey, and California that will not vote
Speaker 3: for a tax bill without some kind of salt. You know,
Speaker 3: tax cap change. Right now, it's limited to ten thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: That applies to a couple as well as an individual.
Speaker 3: They may double it allowed to be twenty need for
Speaker 3: a couple. We could see another type of rise. I
Speaker 3: don't think it's going to be completely uncapped. It just
Speaker 3: costs too much.
Speaker 2: So how hard was it to get this done? Like
Speaker 2: how much corraling did President Trump have to do over
Speaker 2: House Republicans relatively united?
Speaker 3: You know, it was the House Freedom caucuss is often
Speaker 3: up pinned as being a big obstacle to leadership. They
Speaker 3: came out early on as long as they got this
Speaker 3: two trillion in cuts, so that's a big chunk of
Speaker 3: what the conservative But they're what they call the affiliates,
Speaker 3: people like Victorious Bart's, Thomas Massey, Tim Burchett, and Warren Davidson,
Speaker 3: who at the last minute were saying, we are not
Speaker 3: voting for this, We'll never vote for this. They were
Speaker 3: really dug in. In fact, there's a scene I've never
Speaker 3: seen in my almost twenty years up here where they
Speaker 3: sent everybody home. Lawmakers got in their cars, were leaving
Speaker 3: the capitol, and eight minutes later they said everyone come back.
Speaker 3: So in that was minutes I think President Trump got
Speaker 3: to some people, they started to flip and they ended
Speaker 3: up passing it. But it's a very dramatic scene here.
Speaker 3: In fact, even saw some Democrats coming, one who had
Speaker 3: just had a baby and one who had just had
Speaker 3: surgery coming with Walker to try to put the pressure
Speaker 3: on Republicans to get every vote that they needed.
Speaker 5: Eric got about thirty seconds left. But this seems like
Speaker 5: a real big win for President Trump. Does this signal
Speaker 5: even additional momentum for his agenda?
Speaker 3: It does, but you know, there's a lot of hurdles
Speaker 3: when right now a lot of moderates voted for this
Speaker 3: saying it's just a plan, there are no real cuts.
Speaker 3: But if you see an eight hundred billion dollar cut
Speaker 3: to medicate that goes beyond work requirements for able bodied adults,
Speaker 3: that goes beyond you know, improper payments, that's things like
Speaker 3: capping you know, Medicaid, a block granting into the states
Speaker 3: where you'll see actual you know, impoverished people go without healthcare.
Speaker 3: And that's going to cause I think an uproar probably
Speaker 3: that a lot of swing district monits are not prepared for.
Speaker 3: So you know, it's going to be very difficult to
Speaker 3: get something through because if they don't make those cuts,
Speaker 3: those conservatives that they also need will not vote for
Speaker 3: the bill.
Speaker 2: All I really appreciate that. Thank you so much for
Speaker 2: joining us, great reporting. Eric Watson, a Bloomberg Congression reporter,
Speaker 2: literally joining us in a hall somewhere.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: No, that's the capital rotanda underneath the Trumbelt chaining.
Speaker 6: Okay.
Speaker 2: My point was that he's like in the in the weeds,
Speaker 2: is my point.
Speaker 4: That's the surrender a morning's.
Speaker 7: On the ground.
Speaker 2: He's that kind of waning.
Speaker 4: Is the painting of the surrender of General We're Goyne.
Speaker 7: Thank you.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: All right, I'm Alexey alongside dun Tucker and Paul Sweeny.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the
Speaker 2: top news and business, economics and finance through our lens
Speaker 2: of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. They cover two thousand companies
Speaker 2: and one hundred and thirty industries all around the world.
Speaker 2: We also love checking in on some of the companies
Speaker 2: that are basically running the show when it comes to
Speaker 2: us being able to turn on our lights, or when
Speaker 2: it comes to us turning on our cars, or actually
Speaker 2: like starting our cars maybe a different way.
Speaker 3: To say it.
Speaker 2: And of those companies is American Superconductor. The ticker is AMSC.
Speaker 2: That's on the Nasdaq. You can find it there. The
Speaker 2: stock is currently up by almost six percent. It currently
Speaker 2: It recently announced it's fiscal third quarter results and the
Speaker 2: CEO Daniel McCann joins us. Now, So, Daniel, you basically
Speaker 2: make all the stuff that allows us turn on lights.
Speaker 2: Is that a fair way of saying it.
Speaker 7: Yeah, we don't really make the power move the power,
Speaker 7: but we make sure that the power is where it
Speaker 7: is when it's needed.
Speaker 2: So what does that wind up meaning? So you can
Speaker 2: tuck to the electricity basically?
Speaker 7: Yeah, So if it's an industrial site in a manufacturer
Speaker 7: that needs power at a certain level of certain frequency,
Speaker 7: we modulate that and make it the right way for
Speaker 7: that factory. Same thing if you're trying to deal with
Speaker 7: bringing generation onto the grid or even different spots within
Speaker 7: the grid itself, to bolster and make sure that the
Speaker 7: power can go where it's needed.
Speaker 5: All right, that sounds critical, sounds important, but it doesn't
Speaker 5: sound sexy. But your stock is up seventy eight percent
Speaker 5: over the past twelve months.
Speaker 4: Why do you think that is?
Speaker 5: Are you guys getting caught up in an AI and
Speaker 5: the need for energy?
Speaker 4: And I don't.
Speaker 7: I think we're getting caught up in the need for energy.
Speaker 7: I think there's a lot of drivers that are changing
Speaker 7: our need for power. If you think about everything you
Speaker 7: do in your day now requires electricity, and that could
Speaker 7: be from healthcare to data to semiconductor manufacturing and everything
Speaker 7: in between. So power it becomes more and more critical.
Speaker 7: We're becoming more dependent upon it. And the grid really
Speaker 7: wasn't built for the modern era of electricity.
Speaker 2: And from that perspective, I mean, just for a super
Speaker 2: nerdy moment. You guys also make the conductors, right, like
Speaker 2: the thing that so if you have a wind farm
Speaker 2: and you need attached to a grid, there's like a
Speaker 2: piece of equipment that you need to attach it. You
Speaker 2: make those and those are in super super super tight
Speaker 2: demand like tons of demand, not on a supply it
Speaker 2: doesn't matter what kind of power source that is. Am
Speaker 2: I accurate?
Speaker 7: Yeah, And many of the suppliers are from overseas as well,
Speaker 7: So we're kind of unique also being an American company
Speaker 7: making product in America with Americans, and I think that
Speaker 7: fits very well in today's climate where we're trying to
Speaker 7: push the country.
Speaker 5: So what are the drivers for your company right here
Speaker 5: right now? I know you recently reported are things. What
Speaker 5: did you identify as the drivers for your business?
Speaker 7: A lot of it is this further in the need
Speaker 7: for demand. A lot of it. We're seeing our business
Speaker 7: start to ramp really with the reshoring of manufactured capacity
Speaker 7: and capability in America. All those operations need power, so
Speaker 7: we see expansion in manufacturing that's starting to happen critically
Speaker 7: in these critical elements if you want to deal with
Speaker 7: cars and chips and AI and all those things. We
Speaker 7: sit kind of secondarily that we help enable the power
Speaker 7: to be there. But more and more operations are becoming
Speaker 7: more dependent upon electricity.
Speaker 2: So from that perspective, does it matter to you where
Speaker 2: the electricity comes from? In that does the policy from
Speaker 2: a Biden administration and transition to a Trump administration on
Speaker 2: say energy and climate, does that matter?
Speaker 7: Well, I'll say something that may not be popular, but
Speaker 7: I'll still say it.
Speaker 4: I think that.
Speaker 7: The end result and desire from both are the same.
Speaker 7: We want to make sure that we're building an economy
Speaker 7: in America for Americans. I think that was insistent with
Speaker 7: the last administration. It's definitely consistent with the current administration.
Speaker 7: The question is the policy and how how do we
Speaker 7: help enable it. Are we trying to create a market
Speaker 7: that people want to companies want to invest in, or
Speaker 7: is the government trying to help foster that through money
Speaker 7: and through through policy that is more economic. At the
Speaker 7: end of the day, for us, it doesn't quite matter.
Speaker 7: The problem is still the problem. The grid needs to
Speaker 7: be improved. Utilities are working on that, but as more
Speaker 7: manufacturing capacity comes online, there's there's need for higher quality
Speaker 7: power and that's where we come in and help solve
Speaker 7: those problems. Who do you compete against a lot of
Speaker 7: the big guys from Europe?
Speaker 4: And what we found is that like Semens, it could be.
Speaker 7: Semens or ABB locally here in the US a small
Speaker 7: company called General Electric. But what we've found is over
Speaker 7: the past several years, our largest competitors have become very
Speaker 7: good customers. And what we've found is what we offer,
Speaker 7: the uniqueness of what we do and the service that
Speaker 7: we provide, it complements their offering. And I think they're
Speaker 7: starting to understand that we're not really a threat per
Speaker 7: se to their business. We're a helpful solution to the
Speaker 7: end customer.
Speaker 2: What inputs do you need for your business? So? What
Speaker 2: things are tight for you? What things do you want
Speaker 2: to help change?
Speaker 7: When you say inputs, I think supply chaining.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm and that's what I'm trying to get at.
Speaker 2: So is it like the raw materials that you need
Speaker 2: to build stuff in the US to them sell.
Speaker 4: Yeah, almost everything.
Speaker 7: That we make in the US. So probably eighty five
Speaker 7: percent of our businesses here home in the US, manufactured here.
Speaker 7: Almost all of our supply chain, probably more than ninety
Speaker 7: five ninety six percent, is sourced in the US. So
Speaker 7: the current ap climate really puts us in a unique
Speaker 7: opportunity that we may have unique opportunities presented to us
Speaker 7: because we are American, American, made by Americans, supplied mostly
Speaker 7: by American suppliers. When people talk about tariffs and these
Speaker 7: kind of external policies, they don't have a great impact
Speaker 7: on what we do now. They may how things are
Speaker 7: going to sort out. There's a lot of rhetoric and
Speaker 7: then we'll see how reality translates from that reetarc and
Speaker 7: really what gets put in place. But a lot of
Speaker 7: this is trying to push the country in a certain direction,
Speaker 7: and I think that general direction is good for us.
Speaker 4: So are you having conversations with your customers now?
Speaker 5: They may be calling you and saying, hey, Dan, we're
Speaker 5: a little nervous about what might be happening over the
Speaker 5: next three, six, twelve months in terms of terrors. Are
Speaker 5: they are you seeing that in your order flow or
Speaker 5: are you seeing that maybe just in conversations you're having.
Speaker 7: We're seeing that from companies in Canada, Mexico, we're seeing
Speaker 7: that to some extent some companies on the continent of Europe,
Speaker 7: but certainly in the US they're comforted by the fact
Speaker 7: of where we make it and how we make it,
Speaker 7: and where we source products from.
Speaker 2: Some of the headlines over the last couple of days
Speaker 2: have evolved around tariffs on things like steel, aluminum. Copper
Speaker 2: was thrown into the mix yesterday. If that winds up
Speaker 2: denting demand as and we're not going to build as
Speaker 2: much manufacturing or industrial sites because it's just really expensive,
Speaker 2: how does that trickle to you?
Speaker 7: Well, I think the opposite's going to happen. The need
Speaker 7: is going to persist. The question is can it absorb
Speaker 7: the cost, And there's gonna have to be a way
Speaker 7: to figure that out and find that out. But I
Speaker 7: think all of the things that go into the electric
Speaker 7: grid use all those materials, so they're gonna have to
Speaker 7: get sources. And if it makes American sourced product more competitive,
Speaker 7: then so be it. From my standpoint, it doesn't directly
Speaker 7: affect us because we're already sourcing most of our principal
Speaker 7: equipment from the US.
Speaker 4: Interesting, all right, Dan, great, thanks for joining us. Really
Speaker 4: appreciate it.
Speaker 5: Dan again, a MSc. That's American Semiconductor Corporation. They're up
Speaker 5: there in Massachusetts.
Speaker 4: It's a public trading company. On this deck.
Speaker 5: AMSC is the ticker I put in there. So we
Speaker 5: appreciate that. Dan coming into our Bloomberg Interactive Brookers Studio
Speaker 5: in New York City, Red Sox.
Speaker 7: Fan of course.
Speaker 5: Oh jeez, all right, what are you gonna do?
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
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Speaker 2: Alex Steel here alongside Toal Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.
Speaker 2: We are broadcasting to live for Interactive Broker Studio right
Speaker 2: here in midtown Manhattan. You can also check us out
Speaker 2: on YouTube as well. Obviously, the main event here is
Speaker 2: going to be in Vidia at the closing bill. The
Speaker 2: options market is looking for anywhere from about an eight
Speaker 2: to nine percent move to the upper of the downside,
Speaker 2: which could equate to something like three hundred billion dollars
Speaker 2: in market cap, so that could be a very sizeable event.
Speaker 2: So I want to get you a preview here of
Speaker 2: that kind of what to expect in a broader sense.
Speaker 2: Joining us as Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities
Speaker 2: at Northwestern at Mutual Wealth Management. Matt, good to see you,
Speaker 2: all right, do my homework for me. What am I
Speaker 2: looking at for Nvidia?
Speaker 6: Well, certainly is the event of the day. Look, it's
Speaker 6: an interesting report that we're going to get after the close,
Speaker 6: and specifically to the company. You know, you're looking at
Speaker 6: a ramp up in Blackwell production as well as Blackwell revenue,
Speaker 6: but that needs to offset a deceleration in Hopper revenues.
Speaker 6: And is of Q three of Navidia's fiscal year that
Speaker 6: was twenty seven billion dollars worth of revenue in terms
Speaker 6: of Hopper sales, and by the end of this fiscal
Speaker 6: year it should be down to minimal levels relatives to
Speaker 6: Navidia's revenue base. And so this product transition, I think
Speaker 6: is one of the reasons behind kind of why the
Speaker 6: implied move is as high as what it is.
Speaker 5: So talk to us about valuation. How do you think
Speaker 5: about valuation for this name. I mean, you look at
Speaker 5: the growth and I know a lot of folks are
Speaker 5: saying this, this is actually a name that can grow
Speaker 5: into its valuation.
Speaker 4: How do you feel about that?
Speaker 6: Well, I think I think Navidia's valuation has never been
Speaker 6: a reason why, you know, the stock has done what
Speaker 6: it's done. And what I mean by that is, you know,
Speaker 6: the multiple expansion hasn't been the driver of the stock.
Speaker 6: It's been earning's growth. In fact, I think most Byside
Speaker 6: investors expect calendar or twenty twenty six earnings to be
Speaker 6: in the neighborhood of six dollars a share, and at
Speaker 6: today's price, you know, that's just a modest mind, just
Speaker 6: premium to the S and P five hundred, despite you know,
Speaker 6: much better growth, much better margins, much better kind of
Speaker 6: end market health relative to the rest of both technology
Speaker 6: as well as the overall market. So you know, to me,
Speaker 6: evaluation has never really been you know, the the kind
Speaker 6: of headwind to kind of buying the video. You know, really,
Speaker 6: I think the question a lot of investors have is,
Speaker 6: you know, does this investment wave from hyperscalers, does that persist?
Speaker 6: Can you underwrite a long term revenue base that grows
Speaker 6: from this kind of high levels that exists today.
Speaker 2: And just in breaking news for you guys kind of
Speaker 2: in this vein is Amazon announcing a rebuilt Alexa assistant
Speaker 2: with generative AI. It will be renamed Alexa Plus. So
Speaker 2: just you know, creative, right, we call ours Echo because
Speaker 2: Alex Alexa it can get confusing.
Speaker 3: In our household.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, so it's fair enough. Okay, So back
Speaker 2: to Nvidia for a moment. You talk about the product transition.
Speaker 2: This is also happening at a time when Nvidia is
Speaker 2: reporting earnings for the first time in twenty twenty two
Speaker 2: that shares are down and kind of into the report.
Speaker 2: So I'm wondering what we're going to hear that on
Speaker 2: the deep seek side potentially, which is what we really
Speaker 2: set things off.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that you're going to probably hear Jensen
Speaker 6: talk about this as being a catalyst for a more
Speaker 6: broad based AI adoption and not necessarily a headwind to
Speaker 6: Navidia's business, you know, Looking at DCK specifically, I think
Speaker 6: it's pretty clear by now that they didn't build their
Speaker 6: own foundational model. They optimize what was out there, and
Speaker 6: it's not slowing down importantly what hyper skills are doing
Speaker 6: in terms of investing. You know, a lot of hyper
Speaker 6: scale investments end up being revenues for Navidia. And if
Speaker 6: you look at what was expected in terms of CAPEX
Speaker 6: from you know, the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Google Meta
Speaker 6: or from the start of the year Tilt today, it's
Speaker 6: been revised higher by twenty percent and year on your
Speaker 6: growth of capex is in the area code of around
Speaker 6: thirty three percent per year over year every year. So
Speaker 6: it's still a very healthy spending and investment investment environment.
Speaker 6: And you know a lot of those dollars again find
Speaker 6: their way over to the video.
Speaker 4: So I'm just going at the Bloomberg terminal here.
Speaker 5: The consensus for the quarter in terms of revenue is
Speaker 5: about thirty just a little more than thirty eight billion.
Speaker 5: Is there a whisper number out there, Matt that you're
Speaker 5: looking for both for this quarter and maybe for guidance
Speaker 5: for the next quarter.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the whisper is around forty where the
Speaker 6: where the buy side sits. And then if you look
Speaker 6: out to guidance around forty two and a half. You know,
Speaker 6: n Video got it to thirty seven and a half
Speaker 6: for the fourth quarter, and they only guy one quarter
Speaker 6: at a time, and so you know, looking at kind
Speaker 6: of where that sits relative to sell syde consensus, that's
Speaker 6: a little bit higher. But again you're in the midst
Speaker 6: of this product transition, and so the historical pattern of
Speaker 6: the video delivering two billion above the current quarter and
Speaker 6: guiding to two billion in excess of seal side consensus,
Speaker 6: you might be a little bit questionable here just given
Speaker 6: you know, they're in black welve. It's just more of
Speaker 6: a complex product and it's taking a little bit longer
Speaker 6: to ramp up the supply chain there.
Speaker 2: What's going to be the read through for Nvidia on
Speaker 2: some of its peers, and I use peers a little
Speaker 2: loosely here.
Speaker 6: Well, certainly a healthy na Vidia report is going to
Speaker 6: translate into likely a move higher. As well as to
Speaker 6: some of the video's competitors. You know, I think if
Speaker 6: you're looking at direct competitors to the video, you know,
Speaker 6: broadcome comes to mind, Marvel comes to mind. They do
Speaker 6: operate in a little bit different, a little bit different
Speaker 6: segment of artificial intelligence because they're you know, the customer
Speaker 6: basic manufacturers for the lesive Google as well as for
Speaker 6: UH as well as for Amazon. You know, I think
Speaker 6: those are those are a little bit different than the
Speaker 6: video because it's the merchant GPU provider, and let's not
Speaker 6: forget you know, the video does own ninety percent of
Speaker 6: this market, so they're the big gorilla in.
Speaker 3: The room for sure.
Speaker 4: Exactly all right, Matt, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 5: Really appreciate giving us a little preview there of Nvidia
Speaker 5: Air for the clothes, Matt Stuckey, he's a chief portfolio
Speaker 5: manager filling the equity stuff for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
Speaker 5: out there in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
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