WEBVTT - Oil Pushes Higher With Ukraine Talks and China’s Pledge in Focus 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.559 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:14.560 Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:17.880 Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:21.040 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.480 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:26.320 Talks between the US and Ukraine are helping to advance 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:27.400 oil prices this morning. 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.080 Let's get some more insight now on this. 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:34.280 Another commodity moves with Miami Mike mcgloone, Senior Commodity Strategies, 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:37.120 a Bloomberg Intelligence located in Miami Beach. 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.920 Mike, talk to us about just I'm seeing. 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:43.920 You know, w chech crude oil fifty eight dollars of 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:44.840 barrets up a buck. 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.160 But this is really really low price for oil. 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.640 Are good friends in the oil patch in Odessa and Midland, Texas? 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:53.920 They are not happy, No. 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:58.000 They aren't, and unfortunately still producing more oil now that 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:02.160 is on decline. That should be it's responsive elasticity to 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:03.000 lower prices. 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:05.160 But what's happened in Russia Ukraine? 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.880 If there's dayton, if there's significant peace, the first thing 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.600 you should expect to go down is potentially gold and 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:13.360 natural gas natural gas. 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:14.800 Prices because we'll be bringing on more of that supply. 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:16.600 So it's not really a good reason unless there's some 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.440 kind of curtailment of supply for prices to go up. 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:20.919 It's an overall bear market. 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:23.560 But if you look over next year, I think the 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:26.480 range and crudel can be from around forty to seventy. 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:30.240 Now that's a normal first standard deviation move safely end 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.000 the year between fifty five and sixty. 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:33.800 But the bottom line, pol is the. 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.240 Average cost of production to break even costs in this 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:37.200 countries around. 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:38.960 Fifty five, so they can do pretty well. 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:40.959 In the point is you basically have to get below 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:44.679 those levels for an elongated period to offset these excesses 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:47.360 of global supply versus demand. So I'm still bears CRUDEIL, 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.040 but I wouldn't be surprised we'd get it, you know, 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:51.440 I think traders are looking for bounces to sell. 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:55.280 Okay, let's talk about where perhaps geopolitical anxiety has fed 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.360 into a rush to Haven's boy dof you see it 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:00.680 in the run up in gold in well, we're having 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:03.200 a little bit of is it profit taking happening right now? 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:03.400 Mike? 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:04.440 Where do you point. 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:06.520 Us towards in terms of buying the dips or selling 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.440 where we're at. I. 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:10.600 Caroline, I love how you went there. 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:14.880 The phrase that I keep thinking of is you're supposed 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.480 to be selling when you're they're yelling. Particular in silver, 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.040 silver is one of the most over blought commodities on 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.640 the planet. You have to go back to nineteen seventy 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.680 nine to get a similar stretch. Almost two times versus 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.359 is fifty week moving average, and that peak we put 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.480 in that we closed at thirty two dollars and thirty 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.839 two cents that year. The next year that we close 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:37.360 above that level was this year. So that's what happens 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:39.480 when you get this stretch. So I'm very concerned about 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:41.400 things like silver. Yeah, it could get to one hundred, 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:43.720 but it typically will drop towards fifty. That's a full 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.639 normal range for next year. It's what I expect. It's 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:48.600 the number one metal expect to be down next year 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:50.960 because it's a short squeeze. Now, now gold's a little 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:54.080 different story, but gold's expensive too, So the whole precious 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.720 metals to market market looks to me like, yes, it's 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:58.680 been great for those of us who have been bullish forever, 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:00.800 but it never hurts, it takes and profits, and right 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:02.040 now I think we're seeing some of that. 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:05.239 Mike, twenty twenty six. What's kind of the play in 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:07.560 your world here? You're twenty twenty six out of look 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.560 in global commodities? Am I buying pork bellies or where 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:11.040 am I going? 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:11.959 Yeah? 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:13.959 I love how you always go to pork bellies plot 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:15.680 because I don't really try. I don't know much about 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.040 wyllies just to That's why you need to trip me off. 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:19.760 That's important. 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.720 The number one thing I'm worried about is this continued 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:27.639 deflation in the elastic commodities, the grains, energy, crude oil, 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:28.440 natural gas. 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:30.079 I fully expect those to continue. 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:31.840 So levels I'm looking for is crude oil to get 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.200 to their forty natural gas to get in there too. 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.600 That's not profound, It's what it's always happened. Corn corn 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:40.160 to dropped down like three dollars and fifty cents. 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:41.800 Those are break even costs. 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.320 The key thing I'm worried about is this signals by 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:47.760 having gold having its best year ever versus crude oil 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:51.120 down that exceeded the extremely head in two thousand and eight, 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.480 I'm really worried about this stock market problem. So right now, 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.200 for industrumentals to go up, the stock market basically has 0:03:57.240 --> 0:03:59.240 to go up. But when here's a key thing I 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:01.440 like to end with, we just never had this type 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:05.000 of high velocity rally in gold and silver and precious 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:07.760 metals with stock market volatilely this low. So typically it 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.640 means stock market volatile will go up next year and 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:11.960 that might be all that matters. 0:04:12.120 --> 0:04:15.360 What about digital gold like going down? 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:18.479 It's still bear market. We peaked. I think we're gonna 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:21.880 look at bitcoin. Likely looked at silver in nineteen seventy nine. 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.960 This year it's a pretty significant peak. I think bitcoin's 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:26.240 more like the head towards fifty. 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:29.560 That's a normal correction, particularly if the stock market goes 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:31.880 down and the whole rest of the space to continue 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:34.599 that bear market. So good examples of Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:36.720 index is down about twenty percent this year. 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:39.560 It's a key reversal. Was up about twenty percent this year. 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:42.359 It looks just like this US stock market did in 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.760 nineteen twenty nine. The difference is there's an unlimited supply 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.960 of cryptocurrencies. There's only one in two thousand and nine 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:49.640 that was Bigcoin. 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:52.120 Stay with us. 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:54.520 More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:01.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligen in the podcast Catch 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.480 us Live weekdays at ten am. He's done on Applecarplay 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.520 and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:10.840 demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us Live 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:13.599 on YouTube twenty five. 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:16.880 In many ways was not discerning. There were record highs, 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:19.080 there were sudden reversals, there was years of conviction trades, 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.920 there was costly comebacks, and it's all been written down 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.960 by our wonderful colleagues at Bloomberg News, and we can 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:27.440 sit down with one of them, Michael Reagan. Here's Bloomberg 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:30.960 Managing editor for US Equities, who drills into the AI 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.520 trade and whether now it's time for the big short. 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.680 We all know what that word play is pointing towards 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:40.360 and one Michael Berry. How did he really pour cold 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.000 water on some of the big AI hag. 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:44.760 Yeah, it was really interesting. I mean, you know, first, 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:46.960 let's you know, to be fair, it was a great 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:48.840 year to own AI SoC you know, as we get 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.440 to the end of the year in videos up forty percent, 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:55.920 pollunteers up one hundred and forty I think, but Burry 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:59.039 really did throw some cold water on the trade in 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:01.960 a very high profile matter in early November when he 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:06.880 disclosed put positions in Palenteer and in Vidia in his 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:10.760 hedgephund see on asset management. You know, since actually closed 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.760 the fund, but it really sort of landed like a 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:16.080 thud in the market. You know, both those stocks and 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:19.880 the NASDAC were really setting record high after record high. 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.920 You know, again, they're still going to have go into 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.240 the books as very good years for both stocks, but 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:27.800 they they haven't set a new high since then. 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:30.159 They both took took a big dip. 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.320 The Nasdaq hasn't set a new high since he disclosed 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:35.280 these puts. So to me it was like, you know, 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:39.160 he really sort of hit a raw nerve I think 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:42.280 in what people's concerns were about the AI trade that 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.080 you know, yes, there's a lot of promise there, much 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.680 like the dot com era, but the winners and losers, 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:49.480 you know, it's a. 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:51.719 Long way from knowing who they will all be. 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:54.039 I mean, obviously in Nvidia has a good case to 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:56.960 be you know, one of the main winners. So so 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.120 that was one of you know, to us, we love 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.880 writing about a good trarian call, especially one that sort 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.200 of hits the top of the market like that. 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:05.920 So that was one of our big trans of the year. 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:06.280 Mike. 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.279 There's a lot of people in this market that don't 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.120 recall a market where Tech was. 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:12.080 Not leading this. 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:15.120 That's true, I mean, and I'm quite frankly, I'm not 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:16.960 sure if you're telling me that Tech's not going to 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:18.760 be a driver in twenty twenty six. 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.160 You know, you got to be cautious there, if that's 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:22.920 kind of your belief. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.560 Yeah, yeah, And I wouldn't believe me. I would not 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:27.480 be the one to say that. Yeah, to buck with 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:27.880 the trend. 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:29.480 And I heard that from the street, because the street's 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:30.040 still very bold. 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:32.320 Yeah, yeah, I think you know, what we've seen in 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.960 the last couple of months is sort of this a 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:38.360 little bit of a rotation into some of the other, 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:40.960 you know, forgotten sectors, some of the more cyclical sectors. 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:45.040 And you know, obviously Tech will go into the books 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:47.240 as among the best gains of the year. 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:49.920 You're totally right, most years they are. 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:52.840 You know, you look at the NASDAQ one hundreds performance 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.000 versus the S and P, and it's just on any 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:58.120 given time frame, it's you know, I mean, that is 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.320 our economy, right, that's where the growth is, is that 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:03.960 that's where all the excitement is. You know, I'm not 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:08.200 sure anyone expects, you know, a big correction in tech stocks. 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:10.880 I think Alex has written about, you know, a lot 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:13.920 of strategies though, are wondering if this rotation into other 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:17.240 sort of least less loved pockets of the market could 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:18.280 continue next year. 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:22.720 Though, And at the moment, speaking to Mark how Marx's anxiety, 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:24.520 everyone seems to be one side of this trade and 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.280 the S and P five hundred is going to go higher, 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.680 but towards us through some of It's just such a 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.480 brilliant story that you've brought to us talking about all 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:33.480 the ways in which twenty twenty five was defined by 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:34.160 certain trades. 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.480 Crypto was another huge one, and if. 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:39.760 You look at me at Bitcoin, it's down on the year. 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:42.559 You could have booked some enormous gains if you'd sold 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:44.560 at the right time. Also, if you're training some of 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:48.360 these mean coins, particularly the Trump related ones, you've basically 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:50.440 lost endying gains if you'd held on to Yes. 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.920 Yes, mind you, these are the big trades of the year. 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.880 Not necessarily all winners, right, but they were sort of 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:59.480 the trades that captivated, defining the defining. 0:08:59.320 --> 0:08:59.880 Trades of the year. 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:03.080 And here President Trump came in promising to be the 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:06.760 crypto president, you know, basically getting rid of all the 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:10.960 regulatory actions against the major crypto players, pardoning a bunch 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:14.240 of people who were in jail for crypto, launching his 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:17.360 own mean coins, you know, the Trump coin and the 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:18.120 Milania coin. 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:19.400 I think that. 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:22.960 Was pretty dramatically surprising to a lot of people to 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:27.640 think with the President the full power of the White 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:31.160 House behind digital assets that we wouldn't see just this 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:33.360 blockbuster year. But it, you know, it just goes to 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:36.680 show you markets are designed to surprise you and upset you. 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:41.360 And you know, Trump's mean coin had a huge rally 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:42.120 at the beginning. 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:43.840 It's down something like eighty some percent. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.640 Now Malania is the same thing, down like I think 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:50.880 ninety nine percent. So you know, you don't need me 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:52.920 to tell you that crypto is risky. But you know 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:54.040 there's there's exhibit A. 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.760 Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:05.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.559 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:11.880 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.040 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:17.360 Just turn out to the Big Takes story. We love 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:19.040 the Big Takes stories that come out every day from 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:24.319 Bloomberg News. Deeply sourced, just great, fascinating stories, really well done. 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:28.360 This one goes to Wall Street's balance of powers shifting. 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:32.400 Big banks are roaring back as as regulation eases, lending 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:35.520 surges and private credit giants lose some of their luster. 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:39.520 There Bloomber's Katherine Chiglinsky helps lead our investing coverage. She 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:42.760 is a pride of the Wayman Mary University, but she 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:45.160 leads our coverage on all that stuff and investing in banks. 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.480 She joins us for more talk to us about kind 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.120 of the big banks. Like when I graduated from business school, 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.280 went to the Chase Manhattan Bank, we did leverage lending, 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:57.280 we made a fortune, and to see private private credit 0:10:57.320 --> 0:10:58.280 take some of that business away, it. 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.560 Really surprised me. Over the last fifteen years or so, 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:02.200 how's that balance of power these days? 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:03.040 Well, it was huge. 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:05.160 I mean it was a huge shift to see all 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.760 these private credit, private equity firms sort of really taking 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.040 all this market share away from the banks. As the banks, 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.080 you know, post financial crisis, we're sort of limited by 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:17.560 regulations and also we're arguably trying to be a lot 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:18.880 you know, safer overall. 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:21.600 But now we're actually seeing it change a little bit. 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:23.319 And I'm not trying to say, you know, banks are 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.680 going hog wild on everything, but like they've been involved 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.960 in a lot of the leverage loan deals this year, 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.239 We've seen them in some of the major acquisition financing. 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.720 And it's been a good year for the banks. I mean, 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:39.080 regulations have pulled back. JP Morgan's on track to have 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:41.880 its highest annual profit, so it's actually been a pretty 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:44.080 good time now to be a bank. Yeah, the balance 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:44.760 is really shifted. 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.520 It's revenge of the banks, is how Mike Mayo, well 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.880 known analyst Bank panast Over at Wells Fargo put it. 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:56.480 These non banks, though, do they in return perform less, 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:58.920 well have less of the pie? How does ultimately and 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:03.760 distribute itself? Because so just the shist scale of non 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:06.800 non usual assets so well turn into acets has just 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.160 grown exponentially to like sixteen trillion. 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:10.079 Grown exponentially. 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.800 So obviously I still think those firms will be fine overall, 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.240 but you're really seeing the stock price talk a little bit, 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.719 so like the bank stock prices are up quite a bit. 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:21.680 I mean, City Group we had their price to book 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.440 ratio climb above one percent for all the time in 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.640 a very long time. Like, I think you're starting to 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:28.840 see them sort of get their mojo back a little 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:31.560 bit and really find the groove and the businesses that 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:36.640 they're you know, digging deeper into investment, banking, trading, et cetera. 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:38.480 But I also think you're. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:40.439 Seeing you know, I think you'll still see these credit 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:44.800 private credit firms you know, work really hard and like 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:47.160 you know, find different deals. 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:48.720 But I do think it's more challenging. 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:50.400 I mean we've had that whole you know. I feel 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.520 like this year it was the credit cockroach debate. Yeah, 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.240 that really rained for a long time and involved some 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:58.839 of the banks were involved in some of those cockroaches, 0:12:58.880 --> 0:12:59.679 like first brands. 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:01.280 You know, I think there is. 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:03.880 This growing sense that like, maybe we should be a 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:06.319 little more, we should scrutinize a little bit more of 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:10.200 these deals. And obviously the alternative asset managers got so 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.200 big in the private credit space for so long that 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.560 I think there's a little bit more of a scrutinizing 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:16.560 eye on those well. 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:18.600 I mean, even in a Warner Brothers Discovery deal, there's 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:21.679 a lot of big banks bridge loans bring back terms 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:22.640 we haven't heard in a while. 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.560 You know, a bridge loan which will be refinanced with 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:26.280 a you know, a bond deal or something like that. 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.920 Some of the traditional MNA financing seems to be coming back. 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:33.760 But these private credit folks, they're not going away because 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:35.800 the money continues to flow into that asset. 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:36.080 Last. 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:37.720 Yeah, the money continues to flow. 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.440 And I think, you know, I think every competitor of 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:43.120 a private credit firm really understands that, you know, they're 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:45.600 not going away, Like you should be very careful. 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:46.080 You are. 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.560 You know, if you're a bank for these financing deals, 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.920 you're going up against a lot. I mean, yeah, you 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.400 look at the Warner Brothers situation. I mean, the amount 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.920 of firms that were involved in each of those bids. 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.600 It's kind of crazy to say, you know, it was banks, 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.839 but it was also private cat at firms and alternative 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:02.560 asset managers. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:04.080 Stay with us. 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:06.600 More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.200 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.640 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Otto 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.840 with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever you 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.880 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.480 I want to know who out there of our listeners 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.680 and viewers was gifted an AI hardware product. Now many 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.680 people already wear perhaps an AI ring or an or ring, 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:37.040 but how is it starting to integrate more within your life? 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:38.440 What options are. 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:39.880 There at the moment, we're going to have a discussion 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.040 about AI wearables, the promise and the hype. Is it 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:47.600 living up to reality? We can ask Sandbar's CEO about 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:51.640 his new smart ring because it's certainly on pre order already. 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.560 The stream mena Famy is with us joining us, and look, 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.880 you're talking about the stream ring in particular, that lives 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.880 beyond the well your screen. More broadly, this is all 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:07.280 about audio, all about speaking to your ring. Just talk 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:10.160 us first through what exactly the stream ring is. 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:12.680 Absolutely, thanks so much for having me. 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:19.400 So stream has two parts. There's the stream app, which 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:23.280 is kind of like a conversational notes app that will 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:27.720 take notes silently, that will respond to questions in a 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.640 voice that sounds a bit like your own, and you 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:34.760 primarily interact with it using the stream ring. So it's 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.000 this little device here with a touchpad on the side 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:41.960 and a mic on top, and you just hold speak 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:45.440 into it and release and it will vibrate to let 0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:47.440 you know that it heard you, and if you have 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.920 earbuds in you can then hear a response. 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.560 I'm seeing people wearing all kinds of rings here, So 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:57.280 it's obviously that the market is ready for this type 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:02.120 of hardware. Here, what we need, what problem does it solve? 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:03.800 What does it really do for the user here? What 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:04.680 are you trying to capture? 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:10.560 Definitely? So Sandbar is based in New York City, and 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.680 while on the go often ideas will pop up where 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.680 you'll want to take a note of something for later, 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:20.920 or you'll want to get a little bit of information 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.840 like hey, tell me what's new in the markets today, 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:27.480 and have that beam straight into your headphones while you're 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:31.360 on your way into work. And being able to be 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:34.880 in the moment and tap into those instances of flow 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.360 without stopping and pulling out your phone makes a big 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:43.160 difference to actually performing that interaction versus it getting lost 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:43.760 in the moment. 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.800 Davely All, Bloomberg opinion columnist, had the joy of using 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.800 your ring and I did as well. I've played with 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.800 it a little bit already, and he sort of described 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:56.200 how it basically is not un drawing unwanted attention, and 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:58.800 also key doesn't make others feel uncomfortable. For me, I'm 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.360 an avid cyclist, Paul, and I get to in from 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.480 the office with that. The amount of times I've wanted 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:07.160 Siri to just answer something about biking docs or about 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:09.159 where I'm doing, or the meeting I'm about to go to, 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:10.960 and it just doesn't work. 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:12.200 And I'm interested, meaning from. 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.880 Your perspective, how much, given it's coming out I think 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.960 in the summer of twenty twenty six, how much is 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:20.159 this predicated on the fact that Apple doesn't get his 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:20.760 act together. 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:25.240 I think that there's a lot of opportunity for new 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:29.680 companies to demonstrate new products that are focused on I guess, 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:33.160 very specific applications to start that hopefully grow over time. 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.760 A big limitation of existing AI products, especially those built 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:42.960 into devices, is they'll give you a single response to 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:45.840 a single query. But if I want to do a 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:49.000 really fast back and forth, not only do I need 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:53.480 great hardware, but I also need great software that's capable 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:58.000 of a thoughtful response that's really high intelligence, that's emotionally aware, 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:03.320 and solving all of those difficult personality challenges and hardware 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:07.199 challenges is something we're excited to dedicate ourselves to and 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.560 something we really haven't seen anyone do before. 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.520 Some people with just devices in general, me to have 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.800 a concern of it's always listening to me, and I'm 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.080 not sure I like that from a security perspective. 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:25.160 Address that issue absolutely so at Sandbar, we love thinking 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.440 of the bar test, which is what would you wear 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.800 at a bar and feel comfortable wearing and the people 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.680 around you it also feel comfortable wearing. So the really 0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:38.360