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Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show,

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Speaker 1: which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch

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Speaker 1: the show live this offseason, you can head to the

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Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern without further ado. Here's this week's episode.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in. Welcome in David Kitchen, COO of Late Round

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Speaker 2: with the JJ CEO of Late Round and JJ, we're here,

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Speaker 2: We're here.

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Speaker 1: We made it. That was a stressful time, even more

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Speaker 1: stressful for you, but it was. It was stressful even

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Speaker 1: just like awaiting the inevitable, and it was. It's one

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Speaker 1: of those things, man, where we we and Charlotte got

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Speaker 1: really really lucky because I guess the atmospheric temperature was

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Speaker 1: just the right temperature for us to get sleet instead

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Speaker 1: of ice. And so we got you know, the kid,

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Speaker 1: my daughter's been out of school all week so far.

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Speaker 3: But we you know, that's just the roads that are

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Speaker 3: the problem.

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Speaker 1: There wasn't that many power outages, nothing like that Nashville,

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Speaker 1: you guys were like aside from like you know, Mississippi

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Speaker 1: and such that got it really really really bad where

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Speaker 1: you know, thoughts and prayers, saw the folks down there,

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Speaker 1: But Nashville was like the center of this in terms

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Speaker 1: of like a major metropolitan area that got hit. It

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Speaker 1: was really where you were at.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, still a bunch of people in Nashville without power. Myself,

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Speaker 2: we were thirty two hours without power, and.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I couldn't handle that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But the girls, the kids, they they loved it.

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Speaker 2: You know, we it was an adventure for them. It

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Speaker 2: was kind of like glamping. You know. I felt like

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Speaker 2: I I was the protector, you know, the provider. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's a little bit of just that instinct that that

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Speaker 2: kicks in. So you know, we say we did it,

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Speaker 2: and we also, in doing that, appreciate things we take

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Speaker 2: for granted. Yes, like like heat, yeah, right, like.

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Speaker 1: Like not being in forty five degree whether all the

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Speaker 1: time in your home, right.

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Speaker 2: And just it just made me think, like people people

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Speaker 2: say they want to go back to like the old days,

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Speaker 2: do you really like do you think about like do

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Speaker 2: you really want to go back to the old days?

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Speaker 1: Because I mean, to me, to me, peak living is

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Speaker 1: probably if we're being on no, you know what, I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna even say it.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna you're gonna say the nineties. I know I was.

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Speaker 1: I was, But then I'm like, I'm like, the Internet

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Speaker 1: is too important for my job and for me in

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Speaker 1: my life that I can't just go back to that

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Speaker 1: time that I think anyone would just say, get me

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Speaker 1: back to when I was a child, as long as

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Speaker 1: you had a decent childhood, right yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so uh so, Yeah, I'm glad that we had

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Speaker 2: a generator. We're here and hopefully everyone out there is

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Speaker 2: safe and warm. JJ, you'vest some more snow coming up

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Speaker 2: this weekend.

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Speaker 3: We're just I get to run it back this weekend, manute.

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Speaker 1: But the nice part is that the snow that we're

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Speaker 1: forecasted to get, well maybe forecasted to get this weekend,

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Speaker 1: is just snow.

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Speaker 2: It's not and super fluffy.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it's literally a normal snowstorm or nothing, and.

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Speaker 2: Honestly, into one ratio. I've already researched Charlotte's snow probabilities.

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Speaker 2: Yeah you have, yeah, because usually it's ten to one,

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Speaker 2: I figure, but this is like it's going to be

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Speaker 2: extra powdery. Yeah, it's a fourteen to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's like a like in almost any circumstance,

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Speaker 1: I would be very excited for it, for the kids

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Speaker 1: and stuff, and I am to a degree, but I'm

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Speaker 1: flying out on Monday to go to San Francisco for

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Speaker 1: the super Bowl. And now I'm like, we got a

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Speaker 1: lot of content planned, We have a lot of just

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Speaker 1: stuff planned in general, and I'm like, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to be snowed in for that. So hopefully it's not.

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Speaker 1: It's good enough that I can play with the kids

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Speaker 1: this weekend. There's not even football on this weekend, so

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Speaker 1: I can. You know, it's even better to, you know,

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Speaker 1: go outside and just hang out with the family. But

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Speaker 1: there is the fear of me not being able to

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Speaker 1: fly out to California next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you. We'll just take it day by day,

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Speaker 2: take it day by day.

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Speaker 1: I get anxious about that kind of thing.

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Speaker 2: I know. If you missed the first day though, not

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Speaker 2: a big deal. I promise I won't push the live

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Speaker 2: button on the show. We'll just postpone it to the

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Speaker 2: next day.

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Speaker 3: Oh man, Yeah, it'll we'll see, because we do.

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Speaker 1: We do have stuff planned for you guys.

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Speaker 2: We do have stuff planned for next week. I'm looking

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Speaker 2: forward to it, hoping that everything works out. Just a

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Speaker 2: reminder though we'll be posting some stuff. I'm sure on

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Speaker 2: X will be on here, but I'll be posting some

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Speaker 2: behind the scenes stuff on our Patreon too for our members.

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Speaker 2: So looking forward to that. JJ. We've had a bunch

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Speaker 2: of coaching changes, and you're also in prospect mode.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I'm in full blown prospect mode right now.

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Speaker 2: Yes, right now, So take us take us to like

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Speaker 2: how you're doing right now with like everything going on.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot going on. Yeah, I have revamped the

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Speaker 1: ZAP models. I've revamped the year two ones definitely as well.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of cool stuff that's changed in the

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Speaker 1: zapp models year over year. I do this every year

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Speaker 1: where I, you know, you get new testing data because

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Speaker 1: there's another year that kind of gets thrown in there

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Speaker 1: because another class, draft class has officially played three years

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, which is what I'm testing against, and

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Speaker 1: so I like to kind of just make sure that

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Speaker 1: I'm you know, the NFL evolves and draft classes evolved,

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Speaker 1: and the archetype of player evolves, and I'm making sure

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Speaker 1: the model is capturing things properly. So I go in

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Speaker 1: and I tweak the model both at running back and

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Speaker 1: wide receiver. Every single year, and so I did that,

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Speaker 1: you know, at the beginning of January, worked on that

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Speaker 1: some of the cool things that's changed. The big thing,

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Speaker 1: I'd say, the interpretation of the data is going to

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Speaker 1: change on the consumer's end. You guys can see all

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Speaker 1: of that within the guide, Like the scale of scoring

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Speaker 1: is a little bit different than it's been over the

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Speaker 1: last four years. But one of the big things that

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Speaker 1: was really evident for me was when I was analyzing

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Speaker 1: different areas of the draft. There are different metrics, so

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Speaker 1: like you know, I've used pro rated reception share, for instance,

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Speaker 1: for running backs for years, and it's a really good

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Speaker 1: signal when you layer on top draft capital and some

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Speaker 1: of these other factors. But it's actually a way better

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Speaker 1: signal for Day one and day two picks, but not

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Speaker 1: as much of one for Day three, whereas Day three,

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Speaker 1: you know, something like yards per team play might get

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Speaker 1: more signal than what you would get from an earlier

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Speaker 1: round pick. And all of those things and doing that

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Speaker 1: testing and working through it has gotten the model to

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Speaker 1: be more predictive at both running back and wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: you know, than it was in the past. That's my

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Speaker 1: goal every year is to make this thing better and

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Speaker 1: better because I'm sitting here analyzing new data, thinking about

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Speaker 1: how I can calculate things a little bit differently, and

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Speaker 1: it's this giant puzzle to kind of put together.

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Speaker 3: And then eventually I have to stop. Eventually I have.

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Speaker 1: To be like, Okay, I got other stuff I gotta do.

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Speaker 1: I can keep trying to get this thing to, you know,

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Speaker 1: a great level, and hopefully it is at a great level,

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Speaker 1: but even better.

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Speaker 3: You know, you can always make something better.

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Speaker 1: But I have to stop at some point because there's

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Speaker 1: so much, so many other things to do. And then,

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Speaker 1: like the year two model's gotten a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a revamp as well, but all of that modeling is done.

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Speaker 1: Now it's more putting it all together in this prospect guide,

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Speaker 1: which we will have pre order sales out there, you know,

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Speaker 1: a link for you guys here shortly, and eventually we'll

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Speaker 1: we'll announce all of that. But yeah, man, I mean

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Speaker 1: there's that, there's the Super Bowl next week and us

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Speaker 1: going out to San Francisco. You know, Godula is doing amazing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The newsletter Goadula sent out a newsletter yesterday or today, sorry,

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Speaker 1: finished it this morning. Yeah, Yeah, on how how coaching

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Speaker 1: changes in packed NFL offenses and Kitchen's responds his own.

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Speaker 1: This is the COO in Kitchen. He responds and says,

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Speaker 1: this need this should have been Paywald.

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Speaker 2: I said, it's so good, it feels like it needs

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Speaker 2: to be Paywald. I'm it's going to be.

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Speaker 1: That's not how we roll, kid.

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Speaker 2: I know, it's not always a compliment as to how good. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it was just a free newsletter and people get when

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Speaker 2: they sign up.

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Speaker 1: For FDULA is really good at breaking things down and

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Speaker 1: making it consumable. And you know, it's the stuff that

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Speaker 1: we used to do at Number Fire all the time,

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Speaker 1: and we're doing that in the newsletter now pretty consistently.

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Speaker 1: I'm hoping to get one out tomorrow on sort of

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Speaker 1: like an extension of the Death of the Wide Receiver

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Speaker 1: two episode that I did, you know in the podcast

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Speaker 1: feed last week, you know, a week and a half ago.

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Speaker 1: There's some more stuff. I'm gonna be talking to Matt

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Speaker 1: Harmon later today on Reception Perception on that show about

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Speaker 1: some of that. But definitely subscribe, is what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: Late Round dot com click newsletter. It's free, just give

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Speaker 1: us your email address. I'm not saying that because we're

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Speaker 1: just gonna mark it to you all the time. I'm

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Speaker 1: saying that because we're trying to push really good content

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Speaker 1: to you guys in article form, and that's what I think.

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Speaker 1: Godula has already shown to be a really good value

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Speaker 1: add this month, you know, with with him starting at

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Speaker 1: late round.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Godula adding value. Me, I'm apparently taking away value

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Speaker 2: because it's you know, Senior Bowl going on right now. Yes,

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Speaker 2: and I'm a Vandy fan, so I stand for Diego Pavia.

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Speaker 2: He can't. He comes in at five to nine and

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Speaker 2: seven eighths. I made one post about his height related

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Speaker 2: to Bryce Young and Kyler Murray, and I'm getting all

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Speaker 2: sorts of responses, including one from the CEO of the

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Speaker 2: company says, this is not a late roundly.

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Speaker 1: Round take, isn't isn't he kind of a turd?

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Speaker 2: Too?

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Speaker 1: Like?

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Speaker 2: Is it not a turd?

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Speaker 1: Isn't that part of the I mean, especially especially when

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Speaker 1: you compare in contrast who the one on one and

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Speaker 1: this draft is going to be to have, Like.

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Speaker 3: My gosh, could you guess your opposite personalities?

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Speaker 2: There's that thin line between like confidence and arrogance, and

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Speaker 2: sure he walks the line over there, but I.

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Speaker 3: Think I think he's passed the line, buddy, but.

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Speaker 1: He's back to that.

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Speaker 2: He's he's good for the team. If like, he's not

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Speaker 2: a diva when it comes to the team. He never

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Speaker 2: puts himself like over the team. And if you watch

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Speaker 2: him play, he never complains like out on the field.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate both of those. Now, if you want to

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Speaker 1: criticize judgment, I don't. I don't know the guy want.

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Speaker 2: To criticize the social media stuff. He might have like

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Speaker 2: some sort of you know, short QB complex. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: But anyways, I'm enjoying the prospect stuff and even just

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Speaker 2: you seeing you and Gadula talk about model stuff makes

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Speaker 2: me excited for the guide, which will be available to

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Speaker 2: pre order in February. And with that, JJ, let's get

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Speaker 2: onto today's news, today's fantasy news. All right, we've got

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Speaker 2: it's uh just talking about survival. We survived, so that's

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Speaker 2: in the past. We were talking about that conference review though, JJ,

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Speaker 2: I got to watch on my phone.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, did you watch? I watched.

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Speaker 2: I watched most of it via a shout out to

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Speaker 2: YouTube TV and when I got serviced, but I was

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Speaker 2: like charging up my phone so I could watch it.

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Speaker 2: So I'm Yeah, that's.

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Speaker 1: What I was worried about. I said that I got

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Speaker 1: I had my generator solely for electronics as fast this

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Speaker 1: past weekend, all ready to go.

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Speaker 2: So I did. I did watch it, especially the secondad

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Speaker 2: first game. I was still kind of setting things up.

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Speaker 2: But what was your general thought process on the games?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I thought they were both good games in

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Speaker 1: terms of just like drama and you know, you had

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Speaker 1: you had enough of that. I kind of want, like

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Speaker 1: I was kind of rooting for the Rams to get

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Speaker 1: one more possession at the end of that game, to

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Speaker 1: just see what they could do and or at least

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Speaker 1: longer possession in that game, I think. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: I think that the NFC game was determined by the

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Speaker 1: fact that Sam Darnold played probably the best game of

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Speaker 1: his career, which was really really cool to see, you know,

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Speaker 1: after the stuff that he's gone through from a from

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Speaker 1: a career standpoint, so you know, that was really fun.

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Speaker 1: And I think the story of the other game, unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: the story and the main story is weather right, and

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Speaker 1: how that game just kind of went to the to

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Speaker 1: the crapper in the second half because neither team and

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Speaker 1: I love how I'm saying that after last week.

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Speaker 3: I I you know, was was was very pro to ask.

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Speaker 2: You about the weather. Yeah, yeah, it did affect it.

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Speaker 2: It just wasn't for me. It just wasn't as fun

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Speaker 2: because like both teams are punting. Oh, I agree, it so.

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Speaker 1: The whole the whole game. I mean, the Patriots just

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Speaker 1: like did not even the they didn't attempt to pass

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Speaker 1: towards the end of that game, and in situations when

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Speaker 1: you would have almost all day given given Drake may I,

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Speaker 1: I think that the I tweeted about this, but the

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Speaker 1: AFC was pretty weak this year, as we know, and

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Speaker 1: and no matter the path, no matter how it would

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Speaker 1: have gone down, people would have complained about how things

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Speaker 1: went down for New England because it's New England and

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Speaker 1: you know they've gone so many years without having success

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Speaker 1: in that poor guy, yeah, poor fan base. But the

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Speaker 1: one thing that I will say is that like, it's

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Speaker 1: not like New England is a bad like in the end, right,

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Speaker 1: even if they had an easier path or even you know,

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Speaker 1: whatever argument you want to make in the end, it's

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Speaker 1: hard to argue that there are many other teams in

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Speaker 1: the AFC that would have been better representations of that

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Speaker 1: conference this year. You know, I think New England as

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Speaker 1: a team is strong. I sent a tweet out that's

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Speaker 1: gotten a lot of run that at least this team

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Speaker 1: has Mike Rabel and he's a lot more likable than

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick, and the majority of people are like, very

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Speaker 1: much in agreement because Mike Rabel, objectively from like a

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Speaker 1: media perspective, is in like what we see on TV

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Speaker 1: and stuff, way more likable than than Bill Belichick. I mean,

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Speaker 1: like even the comments that he made when he was

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Speaker 1: in Tennessee about what he would do to himself if

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Speaker 1: he won a Super Bowl. You know that, right. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's a player, and he's a players coach. He's a

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Speaker 1: likable dude, and so and Drake May. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: love Drake May for for many reasons. So I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: very excited about that team itself. You know, the fan

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Speaker 1: base is spoiled, and and anyone who says that we're

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Speaker 1: jealous in the end.

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Speaker 2: You know, it is funny, though it is funny, it's crazy.

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Speaker 2: If you look at this right here, I'm posting a

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Speaker 2: graphic right now. This is this is funny. It's Wheaton

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Speaker 2: Brando posted the Patriots schedule of who all they've faced

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Speaker 2: and it's just fired coach, fired, coach, fired coach, NFC

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Speaker 2: South fired coach, NFC South fired, coach, fired, coach, fired coach,

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Speaker 2: NFC South, Jets, Bengals fired coach, fared, coach, fired coach,

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Speaker 2: Jets fired coach. Like that is hilarious objective.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And then they played, and then they played, you know,

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Speaker 1: and the championship. But here's my my overall thing though,

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Speaker 1: is that like you can still judge a team performance

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Speaker 1: and adjust for strength of schedule and still see that

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Speaker 1: New England is probably a top five to six team

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Speaker 1: in the NFL, And we see there have been worse

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Speaker 1: representations from a team perspective in the Super.

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Speaker 3: Bowl historically, like way worse, right.

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Speaker 1: And that's where I stand where I'm like, was the

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Speaker 1: journey easier?

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Speaker 2: Sure?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but like what journey? Like number one, they just

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Speaker 1: played the schedule that they were given, So like what

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Speaker 1: do we You can sit here and say that like

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Speaker 1: and hate on.

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Speaker 3: New England, but they did what they had to do

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Speaker 3: and they got it done.

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Speaker 1: And if you feel so strongly about it, go to

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Speaker 1: DraftKings and put some money down on Seattle, you know,

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Speaker 1: if if you feel I mean I did I took

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Speaker 1: Seattle minus four and a half. But I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: be surprised if New England puts up a game in

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Like, I don't think that they're that

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Speaker 1: bad of a team the way that other people view them.

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Speaker 1: If if if Seattle gets Sam Darnold though playing the

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Speaker 1: way that he did in the NFC Championship, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: they're gonna win that game. I mean, he was, he

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Speaker 1: was lights out in that game. Klint Kubiak called a

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Speaker 1: great game. I mean, I the Seattle defense played one

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Speaker 1: of their worst games of the season against against the

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Speaker 1: Rams this past week, and they still Seattle still got

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Speaker 1: that w. And so it's gonna be tough for New

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Speaker 1: England to get the win for sure. But I just

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Speaker 1: don't think that they're an unworthy team to be, uh

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Speaker 1: you know in uh in the Super Bowl representing a

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Speaker 1: weak AFC from twenty twenty six or twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's as Titans fan will like attest and also

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Speaker 2: Jets fans like seeing Vikings fans any fan that had

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Speaker 2: Donald as their their quarterback at yeah there's one point. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Panthers like, yeah, good for Sam Donald and good for Rabel.

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Speaker 2: Like Titans fans, they're not I think they're not mad

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Speaker 2: at Vrabel.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 2: I think that the.

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Speaker 1: Franchise that should feel like the fan base that should

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Speaker 1: feel the most gutted right now has to be Minnesota. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Like it's not the Jets. Like the Jets just didn't

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Speaker 1: have the infrastructure for Sam Donald to grow up in

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Speaker 1: and like same with Carolina whatever, Like it just wasn't there.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota was really good last year and then they decided

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Speaker 1: to move on, and that is that could end up

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Speaker 1: really haunting them like that, that could end up being

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Speaker 1: a really really big deal.

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Speaker 2: All Right, So you've already kind of given your prediction

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Speaker 2: for what's going to happen in the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Look, yeah, but what breakdowns though next week? As long

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Speaker 1: as you know, I'm I'm out there in San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's talk about some coaching moves, including one

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Speaker 2: that just happened. Yeah, last hour if you're if you're

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Speaker 2: watching this last hour, if you're listening to it yesterday.

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Speaker 2: But Brown's hire Todd Monkin. Yeah, this whole Brown situation

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Speaker 2: has been hilarious. People dropping out, you know, not wanting

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Speaker 2: to coach this franchise. That has a Pro Bowl quarterback.

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Speaker 2: I don't understand it, but JJ, your thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I see that, I hear. My thoughts are, this

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Speaker 1: is kind of out of left field. I thought it

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Speaker 1: was going to be you know, Shieldhauser or maybe Jim Schwartz,

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Speaker 1: one of those two. But I think Munkin was like

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Speaker 1: number three from an odds perspective to land that job.

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Speaker 1: I just wasn't following that super closely because it's Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: and uh, you know, I'll just I'll just react when

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Speaker 1: it actually goes down. I can understand why they made

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Speaker 1: the higher I don't think that a team like that

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Speaker 1: should necessarily go in this direction. But uh, Todd Munkin

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Speaker 1: historically has been a tight end heavy kind of coach

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Speaker 1: and offensive coordinator. I mean we've seen that throughout his

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Speaker 1: time at every single stop that he's made. And so

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Speaker 1: you look at the personnel that Cleveland has and you're like, okay,

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Speaker 1: you go from Stefanski, who also has been I mean,

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Speaker 1: Stefansky was ahead of the curve in the way that

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Speaker 1: that offenses are kind of operating right now with these

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Speaker 1: heavy sets and and a lot of twelve personnel, a

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Speaker 1: lot of tight end use and to me, it's like, well,

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Speaker 1: then why'd you get rid of Stefanski in the first place,

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Speaker 1: you know, like if you're if you're gonna go Stefanski

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Speaker 1: to Monken, there are definitely differences, don't get me wrong,

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Speaker 1: But from like a personnel standpoint, and just like a

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Speaker 1: I mean, Stefansky has the the resume as well, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: To me, if you're gonna get rid of an established

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Speaker 1: coach like that, I would I would likely just go

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Speaker 1: with like a like a Shielhouse or someone who's like

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Speaker 1: just a completely unknown, a complete unknown who could maybe

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Speaker 1: you know, that high risk, high reward of yeah, they

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Speaker 1: could be horrible, but they also have that crazy ceiling

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Speaker 1: of maybe it is an O'Connell or a or a

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Speaker 1: McVeigh type type coach where you feel good about them

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Speaker 1: for the next like decade plus, right. And so that's

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Speaker 1: where I stand kind of on the Monk and stuff.

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Speaker 1: I think Munkin's not a bad coach.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, a lot of people will probably trash him

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Speaker 1: from that perspective because they weren't able to like get

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Speaker 1: over the hump with Lamar, you know, in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: and stuff like that. But I don't I don't think

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Speaker 1: he's a bad coach. I don't think he's a bad

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Speaker 1: offensive coach.

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Speaker 2: So you know, they gone fantasy football, fantasy football.

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Speaker 1: I'm very excited for Harold Fannon, Like I think it's

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Speaker 1: a good hire for Harold Fannon in particular. And you

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Speaker 1: know it's not like I wasn't high on Fannin already,

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Speaker 1: so uh, it's exciting for him. U And as you noted,

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Speaker 1: they have a Pro Bowl quarterback, so we'll see see

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Speaker 1: what happens there. But there was a really funny tweet

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Speaker 1: that that I saw Ben Sallick tweet out. He said,

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Speaker 1: truly hilarious outcome from where Monkin and the Browns were

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Speaker 1: six years ago. And there's an article from Zach Jackson

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Speaker 1: who covers the Browns in The Athletic, And in that

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Speaker 1: article it says, quote Mouncin would spend time on the

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Speaker 1: field before games telling because Mounkin was coaching Cleveland. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and he said it says Munkin would spend time on

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Speaker 1: the field before games telling opposing coaches how bad things

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Speaker 1: were with the Browns, calling the team.

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Speaker 3: A total mess. And so this was what like six,

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Speaker 3: six or seven years.

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Speaker 2: Ago, So things can change.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, things can change. They clearly just wanted a different voice.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of these these franchises and teams,

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Speaker 1: like the Steelers did the same thing where I think

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Speaker 1: that this we haven't talked about the Mike McCarthy higher.

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Speaker 1: I'm assuming that was next maybe.

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Speaker 2: Like, yeah, so you see it's Brady and the three ms.

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Speaker 2: The three ms are Mentor, McCarthy and Monkin.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well go to Mintor. I think Mintor

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Speaker 1: is a pretty smart choice. I mean, he has a

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Speaker 1: lot of there's a lot of praise with him, and

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Speaker 1: I think that Baltimore, as long as they hire the

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00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: right kind of OC can can can get back to

435
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,199
Speaker 1: where they need to be. I've said this many times before.

436
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: Coaching hires to me, you know, if you're sitting on

437
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: your ear, if your mom's basement, or if you're.

438
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 3: Sitting on the couch, Like, it's really hard to analyze

439
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 3: these things.

440
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 1: Like it's very vibes based and field based, and so

441
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: what I say about coaches is just a general you know,

442
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 1: vibe and field. But I don't think that it's necessarily

443
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 1: like definitely going to go a certain direction because we

444
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 1: just don't know what it's like on that team in

445
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: that locker room and with that front office. The McCarthy thing,

446
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 1: though you know there's an actual background with him, you know,

447
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: there isn't that with mintor as much. You know, from

448
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: like a head coaching standpoint, the McCarthy thing is the

449
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: definition of the dude of that old guy who opens

450
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 1: up the President's the exact same shirt that he's wearing,

451
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 1: you know, like it's and it's it's You're going from

452
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 1: a defensive Mike Tomlin to an offensive Mike Tomlin with

453
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy hypothetically, right, I'll say this, The talk about him,

454
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 1: like the the the narrative surrounding McCarthy right now is

455
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 1: that he's this like quarterback guru and whisperer, right like

456
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 1: that The Steelers got him because an offensive mind. He

457
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 1: is an offensive mind. So I'm I'm from a Steelers perspective,

458
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: it's smart to go in the offensive direction. Okay, so

459
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 1: they got that right in my opinion, they needed to

460
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 1: do that and then just higher good defensive coordinator, You're

461
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: good to go. But this idea that he's this quarterback whisperer, like,

462
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: maybe that's true. But if your evidence that you're pointing

463
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 1: to is that, like Aaron Rodgers was good under Mike McCarthy.

464
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 1: He had Brett Farb then obviously Dak Prescott played a

465
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 1: little bit better under Mike McCarthy. The Steelers don't have

466
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott and Brett. I know that there's

467
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 1: a history in like the nineties and stuff too of

468
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 1: him playing, you know, coaching quarterbacks and such, but like

469
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 1: at some point you I'd be like this, the game

470
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: right now is nothing like the game back then. So

471
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 1: I don't really want to go down this route and

472
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: just give him the benefit of the doubt and just

473
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: be like, yeah, man, he's a quarterback whisper. If he

474
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: was a quarterback whisperer, why didn't he have a job?

475
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 1: You know, like if he's if he's just like, that's

476
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: the most important position in the game, if not all

477
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 1: of sports, And if he's a whisperer for that position,

478
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: you would think that.

479
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: More teams would be lining up to get Mike McCarthy.

480
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: Now, with all that being said, I thought his presser

481
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,640
Speaker 1: was really touching and it's cool to see.

482
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: In the you know, in the late round, Discord seemed

483
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,360
Speaker 2: like you were maybe.

484
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 3: Them all in after that, maybe warm enough to him.

485
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean it's it's cool about the parade

486
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 1: starting at his where he grew up on.

487
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 2: You know.

488
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: I I like the the the yser vibes and stuff.

489
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: It's fun. Like the Steelers have done that. They drafted

490
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett, which is a huge mistake, you know obviously,

491
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 1: uh the one time that they did this where they

492
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 1: like went with that local guy who uh you know,

493
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: ended up working out. I mean I guess like technically,

494
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: like a Joey Porter junior is working out right now,

495
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: and he's you know, from Pittsburgh. He actually went to

496
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 1: the same high school that I went to. But James

497
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: Connor is one that you know, in recent memory that

498
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: we can look at and be like, oh yeah, that

499
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 1: was a cool story. And he actually did work out

500
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: for the team, and the team then gave him the boot,

501
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 1: and he's been just as good outside of Pittsburgh as

502
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: he was in Pittsburgh. But I don't know, man, I mean,

503
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 1: like I think that this point, this is my final

504
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 1: say about the McCarthy higher. I think the hire actually

505
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: does point to Mike Tomlin leaving himself as opposed to

506
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: actually getting let go, where there were rumors like that's

507
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: what the story says, you know, but there are rumors

508
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: that you know, no, they definitely had a mutual you know,

509
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: like no, I think the Steelers wanted to keep Mike

510
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 1: Tomlin and he was like, I can't do this anymore.

511
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: I think all that stuff is now true based on

512
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: the fact that, like they went out, they got Mike McCarthy.

513
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: He clearly wasn't just like their top choice that they

514
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 1: had been thinking about all along. And I think that's

515
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: the case for a lot of these teams where you know,

516
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: the Browns get rid of Sefanski, they get Todd Mounkin.

517
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 1: Is that really their top choice? Probably not? You know,

518
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: is is a buffalo with Joe Brady, who we haven't

519
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: even touched on. Was that their top choice? Probably not?

520
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: You know. I think that they're going through this interview

521
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 1: process and teams are realizing that maybe these candidates aren't

522
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: the best, and they're hiring within or they're at least

523
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: considering strongly someone within or someone from complete left field.

524
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: But the Joe Brady thing, I don't even know. I

525
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,479
Speaker 1: thought that was probably the worst hire of this cycle.

526
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like why, it's like you're just you're just firing

527
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: someone to have as a scapegoat when really he's not

528
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: the one. If you're hiring just the offensive coordinator, Yeah, if.

529
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 1: The problem is that they can't get over the hump

530
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, then you're going and you're getting a

531
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: guy who is part of that problem. Yeah, you know

532
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: that's my issue and I Joe Brady. When he took

533
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: over as offensive coordinator, they became much more run heavy,

534
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: They lean more on James Cook, and they they have

535
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 1: been a lot better in terms of, like from like

536
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 1: an EPA per play standpoint with Joe Brady than they

537
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: were pre Joe Brady. The issue is, if you know,

538
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 1: I don't know what kind of voice he had from

539
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 1: like a personnel standpoint and such, but I know that now, uh,

540
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: they've announced and they've talked about how they want him

541
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 1: to be involved in all of those discussions, and hopefully

542
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 1: that means that he gets some more of those guys

543
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: on offense and that wide receiver. Otherwise, this offense running

544
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: through a slot guy during an era where slot receivers

545
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: aren't as important and vital is just not not it.

546
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: That's just not the way that you should be running

547
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: an offense.

548
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: Greg Rosell that if I'm Joe Brady. I'm absolutely trying

549
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 2: to hire Sean McDermott as my DC. It's a good

550
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 2: scheme fit with the players they have.

551
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly how I mean.

552
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 1: Like, I just think, like I said this, from the start,

553
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: I thought McDermott deserved one more year and to see

554
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: if he could bring it together. There were some obvious

555
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: injuries and slow It's just just poor team building going

556
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: on with Buffalo, and I thought McDermott ended up towards

557
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: the end of the season getting enough out of that

558
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: defense given the personnel as well, and so you know,

559
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: they clearly wanted to move on. I just don't think

560
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 1: that Joe Brady is necessarily the answer. But again, coaching

561
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: stuff has a lot of volatility, a lot of variants.

562
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: We're not in the locker room. We don't know how

563
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 1: these guys motivate, and it could turn out great, who knows.

564
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 2: From Bill's Drama to Bill Drama in a second. But

565
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 2: before that, we got some offensive coordinators that are worth mentioning.

566
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 2: Tommy Reese to the Falcons, Bobby Slowick to the Dolphins.

567
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: Remember he was like the heart throb candidate for Houston

568
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 2: until they just tanked last year and then Brian Daball

569
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: to the Titans. So those three hires have been made,

570
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 2: and curious as to any thoughts you have regarding that.

571
00:27:56,240 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 1: My overall thought, I'm actually thinking more of I mean,

572
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 1: we already talked about like Mike McDaniel with with although

573
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 1: this says giants up here should say Chargers right with Yeah,

574
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 1: harbar McDaniel. Yeah, we're already talk about McDaniel. I think

575
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 1: that's gonna be amazing. Like I am, I'm gonna be

576
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 1: so bullish on the Chargers offense next year. It's gonna

577
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: be ridiculous. So I'm very excited about that. I don't

578
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: mind Brian Dable. Actually I thought that he might have

579
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: even been a better candidate than like a Joe Brady

580
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: for the Bills, just given what he was able to

581
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: like he was.

582
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought they were going to hire him.

583
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, he wasn't a bad you know, call for uh

584
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: or he wasn't a bad guy to help develop Josh

585
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: Allen and such. But I will say I think the

586
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: Broncos are you know, they get rid of Lombardi. I

587
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: think they're gonna promote Davis Webb because Davis Webb's been

588
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: such a hot commodity seemingly on the market, and so

589
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: that's what I'm expecting over the next twenty four hours

590
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: or so.

591
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 3: It seems like no one wants the Eagles job because.

592
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: They have that run game coordinator or something that that

593
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: wants to stay there and they want him to stay there,

594
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: and so therefore the office coordinator wouldn't have as much control.

595
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: That's what the rumor is out there. So we'll see

596
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: the chiefs are really strange, just going back and forth

597
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 1: from coordinator to coordinator and just going back to Eric

598
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: b enemy. But I think that the the upside with

599
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: the enemy would be the potential for more down the

600
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: field throws.

601
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: We saw a little bit more of that this past year.

602
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: Mahomes did have a higher A DOT, but I think

603
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: he's a better fit for what they do than what

604
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: Matt Naggie was doing beforehand. And then you know, Zach Robinson,

605
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: I think is a pretty neutral kind of move for

606
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay overall.

607
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Eagles situation sometimes it's not about

608
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 2: who they hire, it's like who they are not hiring,

609
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 2: Like who's not taking the job, who keeps on withdrawing

610
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: their names. So we'll be interesting there and before we

611
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: move on really quick thoughts on Bill Belichick.

612
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: I just think that there's a lot of ego that

613
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: goes on with voters and journalists, and you know, it's

614
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: just there's so it's just so tiring, like you not

615
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: as special as you think you are. And the same

616
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: thing goes with like general media access to certain you know,

617
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: there's there's just a lot of like, oh, you can't

618
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: do that, you know, like the stuff in Jacksonville after

619
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: Liam co you know, the Liam Cohen presser where the

620
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: one reporter basically like thanked him for having like a

621
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: great season and all these reports. The only people that

622
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: were truly mad about that were other reporters, you know.

623
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: And there's a lot of that that goes on in

624
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: that space. And no shade to the people who do that,

625
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: because we need reporters to be able to get us

626
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: the information that then we create content off of. And

627
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 1: so I'm very appreciative of that. But look, man, with

628
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: you're just reporting stuff just like we're just talking fantasy football.

629
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 2: Like like meteorologists or just trying to predict the weather.

630
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, like like you got to get the egos out

631
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: of here. If someone has like a crazy ego as

632
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: a reporter, as a meteorologist, whatever the case may be.

633
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: And I think that's what's driving the Bill Belichick stuff

634
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: and him not getting in the Hall of Fame.

635
00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, get that out of here.

636
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 3: It's so it's so ridiculous, it's so dumb. We don't

637
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: need that.

638
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is a Hall of Fame head coach. Everyone

639
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: with a brain knows that that's the case. And you know,

640
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 1: if you're gonna hurt him and that eligibility based on

641
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: the cheating stuff and the scandals and whatnot, a lot

642
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: of those scandals and it's hard for me to even

643
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: say because I grew up because this is like peak

644
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: when I was a Peak fan. H A lot of

645
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: those scandals are very overblown and it's just not And

646
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: I what I'm getting ready for Kitchens is Tom Brady.

647
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 2: Tom Brady.

648
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, because if you're going to use this logic for Belichick,

649
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: what kind of logic are you going to use for

650
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: Tom Brady? And if Tom Brady is not a first

651
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: ballot Hall of Famer, then officially closed that freaking institution

652
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: because that is ridiculous.

653
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I know. And and Bill Belichick, you know,

654
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 2: he talked about going to Cantons, someone who just went

655
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: to Canton with you at the FFXPO. You know, he

656
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 2: has a reverence for the Hall of Fame, so he

657
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 2: understood the implications of it when they let him know.

658
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: And I think, I think the pendulum will swing back,

659
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 2: and it'll be in next year and there will be

660
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: people that you know, people don't really feel sorry for

661
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,239
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick, but now they're starting to. So maybe this

662
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 2: will just give him a little more compassionate.

663
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe it helps us his image a little bit.

664
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: Exactly exactly, all.

665
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: Right, today's data. All right, we're gonna be talking way

666
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: too wide receiver rankings in a second. So I'm gonna

667
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: do the same thing I did last week, where I

668
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: looked at how players perform versus ADP expectation year or

669
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: this past year. So every player at a certain ADP

670
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: has an expected points per game output or value that's

671
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,239
Speaker 1: just based on history, and so you can take that

672
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 1: and then see how they actually performed and compare the

673
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: two numbers, and then you can see which players outperform

674
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: ADP expectation most and which players underperformed The player who

675
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: overperformed ADP expectation most this past year on a points

676
00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: per game basis was Quentin Johnston QJ because his expectation

677
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: was very, very low. It was only five point four

678
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: PPR points per game because he was drafted way way

679
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: way late. I almost like you could almost argue that

680
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 1: you shouldn't include players like that on these lists because

681
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: it's just so easy for them to outperform expectation. But

682
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: I still think, you know, it does tell you that

683
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,479
Speaker 1: because like, he's not a league winner the same way

684
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigbo was.

685
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: Obviously, but no, but he helped teams. I mean, from

686
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 2: where he was in the preseason, they draft Trey Harris,

687
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 2: he was an afterthought and he helped people.

688
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: By myself included, I didn't have like any QJ this year,

689
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: so I wasn't that upset whenever he started to trail off.

690
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: I was very nervous the first few weeks of the season.

691
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: Then he trailed off, but he outperformed expectation by six

692
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: point eight PPR points per game, where she Rice was next.

693
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: Now obviously that was because he had a depressed ADP

694
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: because of the suspension and stuff, so that's not really

695
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 1: like a one to one comparison. But then JSN Pukinakua,

696
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: Wandel Robinson, you know, George Pickens is up there, Chris

697
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: alave Romeo and Alec Pearce. So yeah, I think it

698
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: captured a lot of the big winners at wide receiver

699
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: this year. And then on the flip side, the worst player,

700
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: the worst pick you could have made from an ADP

701
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: expectation standpoint, was Brian Thomas, which I think that plays

702
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: out too anyone who drafted you know, BTJ, They're sitting

703
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: there and they're like yeah, they're nodding, They're like, yeah,

704
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 1: that sucked. That was a terrible experience. Matthew Golden was next,

705
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, Xavier Worthy. This is all in relevant games,

706
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: by the way. So I removed the final week of

707
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: the season Adam Thielen because we were drafting him when

708
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:40,439
Speaker 1: many thought that he was going to have a role

709
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: on Carolina and or in Carolina Jerry Judy, Deante Thornton,

710
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 1: remember Deonte Thornton had some hype in a little train

711
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: going at the beginning of the season. Lad McConkie, Cooper

712
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: Cup and Darnell Mooney Tho. Those were the worst wide

713
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: receiver picks you could have made. Fortunately, some of those

714
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 1: guys were avoids in the draft guy this year. But

715
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: I did have Darnell Mooney as a dart throw and

716
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: Matthew Golden as a target. Talked about Matthew Golden on

717
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: The Things I Got Wrong episode, But like I was

718
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,280
Speaker 1: lower on Xavier Worthy for a lot of the summer.

719
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 1: You know, wasn't really high on Brian Thomas. Uh, didn't

720
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: mind Justin Jefferson, but no, you know I love Justin

721
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: Summers come and take.

722
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: Hated Jerry Judy, so at least that at least that one, right, Yeah.

723
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, you convinced me not to draft Jerry Judy. But

724
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: other than that, these these names are going to bring

725
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: up Payne. Like, you know, Justin Jefferson just whenever he

726
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 2: had that little hamstring injury, I was just buying the

727
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 2: dip on him and I just kept on drafting him.

728
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 2: Oh one dot seven Yes, please.

729
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish I would have leaned in more on

730
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 1: some of my research with like the unknown quarterback stuff.

731
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 1: And yeah, but someone's asking about Michael Wilson on here.

732
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 1: He wasn't draft He didn't have an ADP, so he

733
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: just isn't on this list.

734
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 3: That's why. That's why he's not there, but yes.

735
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: Like from a from the perspective of was Michael Wilson

736
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: about yes, he would probably be the the one oh

737
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 1: one here, you know, the top guy here of guys

738
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: who outperform expectation. But someone's also asking, how do you

739
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: factor value of draft spot like JJ was a first

740
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 1: rounder and BTJ was a second round pick, value of

741
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 1: round one much higher? Yes, the value of round one

742
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 1: is a lot higher. You can see in the expected

743
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 1: points column that Justin Jefferson had a seventeen and a

744
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 1: half expected points per game. Brian Thomas was about a

745
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 1: full point lower than that. It's all based on regression

746
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 1: and historical value. So you just take different trends and

747
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 1: curves and you get the formula for that. You can

748
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: plug it in and say, okay, at this ADP, here's

749
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: what's happened historically. Now there's gonna be if other people

750
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 1: do this, because there are other analysts who do this

751
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: kind of analysis, you're gonna you can get differing numbers.

752
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: This isn't like a one size fits all. Not only

753
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: will ADP change from data set to data set, but

754
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 1: the way that you calculate this can change. I will

755
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 1: tell you this that I am not using just a

756
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: straight linear formula create this right, because obviously a first

757
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 1: round pick to a second round pick to a third

758
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: it's it's not a linear drop off and expected points

759
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: from one pick to the next. But there's some smoothing

760
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 1: that goes on to make sure that you know, the

761
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 1: one oh one isn't expected to score twenty five PPR

762
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 1: points per game and then the you know, the second

763
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: round guy is at like fifteen. Uh So there's a

764
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 1: little bit of math that's involved here, but based on

765
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: their overall ADP, this is what their expected points UH

766
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: is for for each each of these players.

767
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, some looking at some of these names, the Alec

768
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 2: Pierce name. I was told this week there are some

769
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 2: teams that are already draft speaking of way too early.

770
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 2: Is already drafting next year or for four next year?

771
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 2: Alec Pierce. Do you know where he started going?

772
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,760
Speaker 1: I have no, I haven't started drafting yet, but I'll

773
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: guess he's a sixth or seventh round pick, fourth round.

774
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 2: Fourth, Yeah he's now I think he's now down to

775
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 2: fifth or six. But yeah, crazy he's gonna be a

776
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 2: free agent.

777
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, Well, there's there's a lot of stuff that

778
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be researching this year about free agency and

779
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: team movement and stuff like that. That's part of the

780
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 1: that'll be part of the draft guid more than likely.

781
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 1: But like, he's an interesting name. He he had a

782
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 1: huge breakout year that I wasn't anticipating and and he

783
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: looked pretty good, and a team is probably gonna pay him,

784
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,959
Speaker 1: so I could see the logic behind at least drafting

785
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: him relatively high.

786
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 2: Yeah he's gonna get he's paid. Yeah, he's gonna get

787
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 2: paid this offseason. And also, we don't know what's gonna

788
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: happen to Michael Pittman Junior. If if he does stay,

789
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 2: Pittman Junior could could be on the move somewhere too.

790
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 2: So we'll be a fun offseason and trust me, we'll

791
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 2: have tons of content around that. And j G. I

792
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: cannot wait for people to see these wide receiver rankings

793
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: that you have just set in stone the.

794
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 1: Late round main event.

795
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: All right, you know the rules. These are JJ's wide

796
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 2: receiver rankings, and these will not change at all before

797
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 2: the draft, so go ahead and just pencil them in.

798
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: I actually could see this list being more penciled in

799
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: than any other list.

800
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,439
Speaker 2: You know, pinned in sharp eat in Yeah. Pencil, you can.

801
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: Erase, yeah pencil, you can raise yeah. Number one. I

802
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: have Pooka Nakua. I think that you could argue a

803
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 1: couple of other guys at the top wide receiver spot.

804
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 1: But he's now played three years in the league. He said,

805
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 1: target shairs of twenty eight point seven percent, twenty nine

806
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: point nine percent, and thirty point three percent, which is

807
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: absolutely insane. Good infrastructure. I'm assuming the Rams are going

808
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 1: to run it back or try to run it back

809
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 1: with what they have. You know, the defense was, They'll

810
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: improve the defense a little bit. But offensively, I think

811
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 1: Stafford will stick around. Obviously McVeigh being the mind and

812
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: you know, the the guru if you will that he is,

813
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 1: will help the offense still sustain success.

814
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:51,919
Speaker 3: He he.

815
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 1: Pukinakua has has two of the five seasons since twenty

816
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: eleven with a three point five or better yards barrow

817
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 1: run rate. And he' only played three years in the NFL.

818
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: Like that's there's no other player that's done that twice.

819
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: He's done it twice. He's only done He's done that

820
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: twice in three seasons. It's crazy how good Pukakua has been.

821
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,760
Speaker 1: The one thing I'll say about Nakua, I think touchdown

822
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: regression is probably gonna hit Matthew Stafford at a career

823
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: high seven point seven percent touchdown rate. Nikua he had

824
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 1: ten touchdowns, but he had six end zone targets, which

825
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: what wasn't really anything out of the ordinary for him.

826
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,920
Speaker 1: So maybe a little bit of touchdown regression, but he's

827
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 1: just too good to not have really high or wide

828
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 1: receiver list.

829
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. I saw one mock draft that had the Rams

830
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 2: taking a wide receiver in the first round, like Jordan Tyson,

831
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 2: like someone like notable. If that happens, it will not

832
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 2: be fair. But they've got the Rams have two picks

833
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 2: in the first round this year trade right, So yeah,

834
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: it be Atlanta. It it was Daniel Jeremiah has Makai

835
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 2: Lemon the top receiver right now.

836
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 3: Who looks looks good in the early early looking at

837
00:40:59,280 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 3: of the model.

838
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, going to the Rams, that would be that would

839
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 2: be sick. All right. Number two, you've got Jamar Chase.

840
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is just like a safe bet overall.

841
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 3: I got I gotta clear this up for some reason

842
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 3: such showing.

843
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: There we go, we're good, okay.

844
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, So yeah, Jamar Chase.

845
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: He he had twenty eight percent and thirty two percent

846
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: target chairs over his last two You know, the splits

847
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: with and without Joe Burrow weren't like that that dramatic.

848
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: This past year, he had nineteen point one PPR points

849
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 1: without Burrow and nineteen point six with Burrow, so he

850
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: did see an uptick in production with Joe Burrow. The

851
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,240
Speaker 1: one thing I'll say, though, is that with Joe Flacco,

852
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase had such unsustainable target chairs, Like I'm talking

853
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 1: fifth He had like a sixty percent target chair one week,

854
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 1: which is just not sustainable across the season. So I

855
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: think that's boosting that nineteen point one number up a

856
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: little bit. The fact is with Joe Burrow, he was

857
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: at nineteen point six PPR points per game, which is

858
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 1: a really good number. Cincinnati, they're another team that's gonna

859
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: largely just run it back this year. They've fallen below

860
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 1: zero and pass right over expected only one time with

861
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and since twenty twenty was Zach Taylor, but

862
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: with both of them, so since twenty twenty and it

863
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 1: was minus point three to three was their pass right

864
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 1: over expected. So they're a team with a very good

865
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 1: bet to have a lot of passing volume, and Jamar

866
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 1: Chase is one of the best wide receivers in the game.

867
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 2: All right, number three, you've got Jaysn.

868
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: Yes, so next TI, unless it's JSN and you're you're

869
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: introducing it before you're clearing the black on here, So

870
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 1: I'm scrambling to clear it so I can see my

871
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 1: notes on these players.

872
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: I think there's a little bit of delay because I'm

873
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: doing it and then it's taken a little bit for

874
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 2: it to update for you.

875
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: It's just it's all the ice over.

876
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 2: There in Nashville.

877
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 1: Yes, So yeah, Jaysn's next. I think genuinely you could

878
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 1: at least make the argument that you can interchange any

879
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 1: of these three guys as the wide receiver one. Jaysn

880
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 1: prove this year that he's had to do it all

881
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: wide receiver. He was arguably the best deep ball wide

882
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: receiver in football this season, which says a lot, obviously,

883
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: because that's not how he was deployed at all. To

884
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 1: start his NFL career, he led the NFL in twenty

885
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: plus air yard yards by over one hundred. He had

886
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 1: three point sixty two yards per role runs. So he's

887
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: one of those five that I talked about since twenty

888
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 1: eleven to get over that three and a half mark.

889
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: The downside for JSN, is he going to be able

890
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 1: to repeat these insane numbers that he posted this year

891
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: in terms of deep ball, raid all that kind of stuff.

892
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 1: You would assume that Seattle is going to probably still

893
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 1: be somewhat of a run heavy team. I don't think

894
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: they're gonna be a minus six point eight pass right

895
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: over expected like they were last year, because I generally

896
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 1: will regress a little bit. And then the wildcard heaters

897
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: Clint Kubiak, you know, he's looking like he's you say,

898
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 1: the Raiders head coach, probably like it looks like that's

899
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: a very real possibility if Kubiak is gone. That's at

900
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: least some more volatility to Jasn's profile. I mean, Jasn

901
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 1: is good enough that he's gonna overcome, But that's why

902
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: I have him three instead of one or two, is

903
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: because there is some instability with that offensive environment.

904
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 2: All right, Number four, JJ, we continue with the hyphen

905
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 2: Gang with a monro Saint Brown.

906
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:17,400
Speaker 1: We've now seen ARSB do this with like multiple coordinators,

907
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: you know, multiple you know, different offenses in a little

908
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 1: bit of different styles he just gets it done. He's

909
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: had at least a twenty seven percent target chair in

910
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: each of his last four seasons. He's only missed two games.

911
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: He's a dog. I mean there were there was a

912
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: time this year we thought he was gonna miss like

913
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: four games. He didn't miss a beat, right, and so

914
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 1: aman Ros is pretty interesting from that perspective that he's

915
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 1: got that stability. Two point four eight yards per route

916
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: run last year was really good. But it wasn't like

917
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 1: an outlier season for him by any means. You know. Overall,

918
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 1: I just think that he's a he's a safe option.

919
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: I do have some fear that Drew Petsing is gonna

920
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 1: be pretty run heavy because he has been outside of

921
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 1: last year in Arizona and that could hurt volume a

922
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: little bit. But but Amina Saint Brown's is he's a stud.

923
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 2: Okay, number five, JJ, we have someone who was the

924
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:11,720
Speaker 2: third overall pick last year. This year it's CD Lamb

925
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:12,439
Speaker 2: at number five.

926
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, so look he did see Like if you want

927
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 1: to just be like I have like a guide of

928
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: how George Pickens impacted Cede Lamb, I'd say that he

929
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: had like a three to four percentage dip percentage point

930
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: dip in like target share and in a lot of

931
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,919
Speaker 1: those like share market share related metrics. He also had

932
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 1: the worst yards per out run of his entire career.

933
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: And you can see this chart from last year's Draft

934
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: guide that shows that top eighteen wide receivers early round

935
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: wide receivers who had n minus one seasons of a

936
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 1: yards pro out run below two, they hit an exceed

937
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 1: ADP expectation at a much lower rate than the guys

938
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: who had over a two point six yards per out

939
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: run rate for instance, right so or or even you

940
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: know two to two point three or two point three

941
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 1: to two point six. So essentially, guys who had poor

942
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 1: yardsboro run seasons the previous season that are then drafted

943
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: in the early rounds they do worse against ADP and

944
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: versus ADP than the alternative. With that being said, there's

945
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 1: a good environment, you know, Dak Prescott's obviously a plus

946
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: Seotnenheimer has has called really pass heavy offenses since he's

947
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 1: been in Dallas. They haven't had less than six hundred

948
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: pass attempts in each of their last three Only once

949
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen did they get below six hundre pass attempts.

950
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 1: I could though in the end consider not getting Cdee

951
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 1: Lamb here, and like, I think you're gonna look at

952
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: these rankings and you're gonna see like this grouping of

953
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 1: like oh, man Cede Lam's only two spots away from

954
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigba. I guarantee you ADP is gonna

955
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 1: be those big three wide receivers, maybe aman Ross, Saint Brown,

956
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: and then a cluster in like the late second round,

957
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 1: like there's gonna be a lot of running backs and even.

958
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 2: Lots of running back you know.

959
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: So, so don't think that Ceedee Lamb is like a

960
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 1: top pick. It's just that wide receiver get gets flatter

961
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 1: and Ceedee Lamb we know has that ceiling. But he

962
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 1: is part of that group of that like non elite

963
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: elite tier right now. You know he can get there

964
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 1: because we know he's talented enough. But I think based

965
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 1: on all the evidence we have, we don't want to

966
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: just like assume that now George Pickens could be gone

967
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: next year. Could happen. I don't think it's gonna happen,

968
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,439
Speaker 1: but if it does, then Ceedee Lamb would probably jump

969
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 1: up ahead of Amanas Saint Brown.

970
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 2: For me, with the past few years and the wide

971
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 2: receiver stuff. It will be interesting to see how the

972
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 2: the ADP shakes out. Let's get to number six. I

973
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 2: was a little bit surprised by this, but then I

974
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 2: got thinking about it. I was like, Okay, that makes sense.

975
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 2: It's Drake London.

976
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 1: Dude. Drake London balled out last year. It's obviously he

977
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:45,439
Speaker 1: got hurt. And so people are like, oh, I hate

978
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: Drake London because I drafted him high and then he

979
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 1: got hurt and he didn't help me as much as

980
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: he should have been the playoffs and stuff.

981
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 3: But pre injury, Drake London was literally a league winning player.

982
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: He was. He was great. He was the wide receiver

983
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: three by points per game nineteen point seven vipe your

984
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 1: points per game through week set through week eleven before

985
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 1: then injury like he was. He was great. Kevin Stefanski,

986
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: he can't be run heavy, probably will be pretty run heavy,

987
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 1: and but we've also seen him favor those heavy tight

988
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: end sets and Drake London is not part of you know,

989
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:19,399
Speaker 1: if you go back to the Death of the Wide

990
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 1: Receiver two episode, Drake London's not one of those wide

991
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 1: receivers that will lose work to tight end. You know,

992
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 1: in the middle of the field or in those low

993
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: eight out looks because he's a dominant elite receiver and

994
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 1: so I feel confident, if you like, you can go

995
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 1: back to his early years when he first entered the league.

996
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: He had crazy market share numbers, largely because Atlanta was

997
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: running a lot of heavy sets, not a lot of

998
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,399
Speaker 1: eleven personnel, and so he was competing with other tight

999
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 1: ends instead of wide receivers, and so he was able,

1000
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 1: even in a run heavy offense, to see a lot

1001
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 1: a decent amount of volume, you know, given his status

1002
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 1: as a as a younger player, a decent amount of

1003
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 1: volume because he had like a thirty percent target share,

1004
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 1: and so I think we could just see that kind

1005
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: of happen again in a more efficient offense. He's just

1006
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 1: a stud you know, under a twenty nine percent target

1007
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 1: share only once in his four seasons yard run rate

1008
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: over two, which is a great number, in three of

1009
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 1: four seasons. He's a very good player.

1010
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:13,879
Speaker 2: And I won very good players in my fantasy team.

1011
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 2: That makes sense to me. That checks out all right.

1012
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: Number seven, Yet, Rushy Rice.

1013
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how to feel about this, to

1014
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 1: be honest with you, but it's one of those things

1015
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,760
Speaker 1: where like I'm trying to not overthink this, right, like

1016
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:31,360
Speaker 1: like this is a very basic math problem with with

1017
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: she right.

1018
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,799
Speaker 2: There are some variables I mean involved here.

1019
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 1: Sure there could be you know, Patrick Mahomes is injured,

1020
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 1: you know, so maybe he's not one hundred percent and

1021
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: he comes back, maybe they add to that wide receiver room.

1022
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 1: But I think there's a chance that Travis Kelce has

1023
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: done right, doesn't play anymore that would really help Rice.

1024
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,839
Speaker 1: He's had sixteen plus and eighteen plus points per game

1025
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: over his last two and you know, I do think that,

1026
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:58,439
Speaker 1: like Matt I said this earlier with Eric b Enemy,

1027
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:01,279
Speaker 1: but like Matt Naggy being gone, maybe that means more

1028
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: downfield throwing and maybe that helps if you're worthy a

1029
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 1: little bit more than Rashi Rice and all that. And

1030
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 1: I do think that Rice is sort of like an

1031
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:12,359
Speaker 1: incomplete wide receiver in general, but they just know how

1032
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 1: to scheme him and they know how to get them

1033
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 1: fantasy production, and so I'm gonna be okay with that.

1034
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 1: I don't like buying in this situation so much, and

1035
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 1: I feel like you kind of have to do that

1036
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 1: with Rashi Rice. But it's not like he's a bad player.

1037
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 1: You know, it's not like we're just buying only into situation.

1038
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 1: It's just that when you're amongst other really really talented

1039
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 1: wide receivers, it's a little bit harder to pull the trigger.

1040
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is one of the reasons why it's

1041
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 2: way too early is because we don't know about like

1042
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 2: legal issues or suspension issues with Rice this offseason. So

1043
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 2: one of the reasons, like one of the main issues

1044
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 2: that could affect his ranking again after last season as well.

1045
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: All Right, Nico Collins comes in number eight.

1046
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:01,240
Speaker 1: Honestly, I am so tired of people saying that Nico

1047
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 1: Collins was a.

1048
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 3: Bad draft selection this past year.

1049
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 1: He wasn't. He was not like, he wasn't amazing. He

1050
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: didn't like far out perform expectation. But you could have

1051
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 1: made way worse picks than Nico Collins and fantasy football,

1052
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 1: and he was honestly very good. He had a two

1053
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 1: point three to five yards perrow run, which was the

1054
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:24,479
Speaker 1: worst of his last three seasons, which is crazy because

1055
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: anything over too is generally considered a good season in

1056
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 1: yards perrow run. His worst over his last three has

1057
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 1: been two point three to five. That's how good and

1058
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 1: inefficient Nico Collins has been. He had very similar red

1059
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 1: zone and end zone looks this past year. He's been

1060
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 1: top ten and PPR points per game in each of

1061
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:46,480
Speaker 1: the last three seasons, so at wide receivers. So I

1062
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 1: think Collins is a safe bet. You know, we could

1063
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 1: see some changes at the wide receiver position and hopefully

1064
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: a better offensive line, which would go a really long

1065
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 1: way for Houston. I don't think that the offensive line

1066
00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 1: can get.

1067
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 3: Much worse than it's been over the last two years.

1068
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 2: So and hopefully Stroud is not seeing ghosts either.

1069
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 1: I think that Collins is going to start to become

1070
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 1: sort of like that unsexy pick because people just you know,

1071
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 1: it's a name that we were drafting high this year

1072
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 1: and you know we're just gonna do it over and

1073
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,479
Speaker 1: over again, and you know, just not feel like it's

1074
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 1: like this this new up and comer. But I think

1075
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: he's solid. It's no different than like Amanas Saint Brown,

1076
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: like like he's just very very I mean they're different players,

1077
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: completely different players, but like in terms of like the

1078
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 1: mentality of getting someone who's just a solid asset, that's

1079
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: fine to do when you're talking sixteen plus PPR points.

1080
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:37,360
Speaker 2: Okay, these next two I'm ready to get hurt again.

1081
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say that right now. Start with nine

1082
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson.

1083
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what to say about Justin

1084
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 1: Jefferson if I'm being honest with you, like in a vacuum.

1085
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 1: His one point eight eight yards per hour run last

1086
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: year was not bad whatsoever, but it is a little

1087
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 1: bit more like I said with with Ceedee Lamb, a

1088
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,760
Speaker 1: little bit more questionable for a top eighteen wide receiver.

1089
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 1: It's just such an outlier season in this past year

1090
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 1: for Justin Jefferson.

1091
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 2: Because we've seen his ceiling. We know that he is

1092
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 2: like one of the best wide receivers, if not the

1093
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 2: best wide receiver that there is, and so to see

1094
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,960
Speaker 2: him perform like he did, I'm sure I'm.

1095
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,439
Speaker 1: Gonna uncover some data where I make the argument this summer.

1096
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 1: This is me projecting of what my future is going

1097
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 1: to be. Where I'm saying it can't be much worse

1098
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 1: than what Minnesota had at quarterback, and generally teams that

1099
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 1: have that poor up quarterback play we'll see an uptick

1100
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 1: the following season. That's my guess of what the pro

1101
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson argument will be. I just haven't researched all

1102
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 1: of that. But yeah, look it's Justin Jefferson, Like he's

1103
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:40,839
Speaker 1: the fact that a one point eight to eight yards

1104
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 1: prow run rate is like bad for him is crazy.

1105
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:46,400
Speaker 1: It's similar. I mean, Nico Collins is the same problem,

1106
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: but Justin Jefferson has has proven a higher ceiling than

1107
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 1: Nico Collins. So I think Justin Jefferson should be a

1108
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: top ten wide receiver next year.

1109
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 2: And if you're Kevin O'Connell, you're thinking, how do we

1110
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 2: get this guy some touch? Like you know, two straight

1111
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:06,840
Speaker 2: seasons of bad passing game is going to be really

1112
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 2: tough for him. So that's one of the reasons. And

1113
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 2: then number ten, I appreciate the ihop commercials that he's done.

1114
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 2: It's Molik Neighbors.

1115
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, this depends entirely on the recovery. But again, he

1116
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 1: was still over that tu mark in yards per out

1117
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 1: run before he went down. He was trending towards like

1118
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: a top ten season now wide receiver. And now we

1119
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,359
Speaker 1: feel better about the quarterback situation, like we feel good

1120
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 1: about sophomore Jackson Dart. We don't know who the OC

1121
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 1: is at this point because it was like looking like

1122
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 1: it was gonna be Todd Mounkin, but it's clearly not

1123
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 1: going to be. But obviously healthy Molik Neighbors is a

1124
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 1: very good fantasy asset in my opinion, if he were

1125
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 1: completely healthy, if we didn't have any questions, probably wide

1126
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 1: receiver like six on this list, like you can argue

1127
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 1: him around like where Drake London or even like a

1128
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb hypothetically, like, I think that there's that grouping

1129
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 1: of like guys who were gonna feel pretty strong about

1130
00:54:57,760 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 1: they have more of a backbone. I think the difference

1131
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 1: between like the top ten this year and like the

1132
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,319
Speaker 1: top twelve to fifteen last year where we were like

1133
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:07,840
Speaker 1: where most people felt pretty good about those wide receivers

1134
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 1: is that a lot of those wide receivers didn't have

1135
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 1: like year after year backbones of good production. I think

1136
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 1: at least this year we feel like we have that,

1137
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 1: like Ceedee Lamb has it, Drake London has it, Nico

1138
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 1: Collins has it, hype it. I mean, Rashi Rice kind

1139
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 1: of has it obviously, justin Jefferson does. And so I

1140
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 1: do think we're gonna get a little bit better stability

1141
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 1: out of that top group. But of course there's reasons

1142
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 1: why we.

1143
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 3: Won't that I talked about on that that episode.

1144
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 1: I think what ten to seventy five.

1145
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 2: One name to keep in mind, Davis Webb. Yes, he's

1146
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:44,879
Speaker 2: been linked it as possible. I just think he's gonna

1147
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 2: get promoted as my is my guess. Yeah, they could,

1148
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 2: but they, like you said, they thought Monken might be

1149
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 2: the guy. Now Sheelhouse like You've got all sorts of options,

1150
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:55,879
Speaker 2: and it's it.

1151
00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:59,280
Speaker 1: Is my So my general vibe is that I think

1152
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:05,399
Speaker 1: that the the the Cardinals have been linked to Mike Lafleur, right,

1153
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 1: and so if he ends up going to Arizona, I

1154
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 1: think then shield House will get promoted in LA to

1155
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 1: an OC job and then they get a year with him,

1156
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 1: and then he's gonna be hot commodity next year. That's

1157
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 1: my guess as to how.

1158
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 2: It makes sense.

1159
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean I'm saying this on Wednesday, January

1160
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 1: twenty eighth. I could be.

1161
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 2: Totally too early, JJ for you to be saying that.

1162
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:31,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, apparently that's.

1163
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 2: What that's what that's I mean, that's what I have

1164
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 2: to say. All right, JJ, I do have next year's

1165
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 2: Super Bowl odds pulled up? Oh? Okay, can you guess

1166
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,400
Speaker 2: who the top two options are right now.

1167
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess the Rams.

1168
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess I'll say the Seahawks.

1169
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, those are the top two right now in the

1170
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 2: same division. But yeah, Seahawks and Rams plus nine fifty bills.

1171
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 1: Okay, makes sense. Where's Baltimore? Baltimore is kind of intriguing

1172
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:15,799
Speaker 1: to me.

1173
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 2: Baltimore is fourteen to one, Patriots, twelve to one Eagles.

1174
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:23,520
Speaker 1: I'm assuming a lot of these odds are just really tight,

1175
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: Like there's not probably aren't many standing.

1176
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:30,360
Speaker 2: Out up until like the like sixteen to one the Niners,

1177
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,840
Speaker 2: and then past said it's like Bears twenty two to one,

1178
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh sixty to one. You know, there's some Titans one

1179
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 2: hundred and ten. I might just bet that right now.

1180
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 3: My best the best bet I ever made this was

1181
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:44,480
Speaker 3: years ago.

1182
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 1: It was when the Saints came out of nowhere and

1183
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 1: they went to the It was the year that they

1184
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: lost to the Rams in the NFC Championship on that

1185
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 1: questionable call, right Yeah, and I had the Saints at

1186
00:57:55,200 --> 00:57:57,959
Speaker 1: sixty six to one that year.

1187
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 3: Wow, because no one, no one wanted anything to do

1188
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 3: with them.

1189
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, going to but when you can, when you compare

1190
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 1: an elite quarterback because Drew brees like he was gonna

1191
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 1: be playing for them. When you compare an elite quarterback

1192
00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 1: with those low odds, you should always jump on it.

1193
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 1: That's my betting advice for you, my very amateur definitely

1194
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 1: don't take that to the bank betting advice.

1195
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 2: So someone we got to know over the past few

1196
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 2: years was the Landry family. Yeah, and Harold Landry was

1197
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 2: an outside linebacker for the Titans and just crushed it

1198
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: and then got older, and then he went to New

1199
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 2: England last year and I remember seeing the news and

1200
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 2: just feeling like, oh, dang, sucks for him, like, you know, like,

1201
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 2: but at least at least he's going there just to

1202
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 2: ride at the sunset of his career, you know, at

1203
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 2: least he gets to play, keep playing. And now they're

1204
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:56,760
Speaker 2: in the super Bowl. Yeah, so you know that's.

1205
00:58:56,840 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the first time. Is this the

1206
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 1: first time in either year or wherever one of the

1207
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 1: two where the Super Bowl matchup is from two teams

1208
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 1: that didn't make the playoffs the previous year?

1209
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fun, this is what we mean.

1210
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:10,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me more chaos next year.

1211
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 1: I know that it's not it's not a two teams

1212
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 1: that like haven't been there in recent memory, because obviously

1213
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:17,880
Speaker 1: the Seahawks had their time with Russ and.

1214
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 2: The Patriots Shaw and they played.

1215
00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 1: Each other, right, and so so like I get all

1216
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 1: of that, and I get that sentiment, but try to,

1217
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 1: as a fan, detach yourself from that history and just

1218
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 1: look at what's gone on this year and you can

1219
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 1: really appreciate what both teams did and and because of that,

1220
00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 1: it's a lot easier to be like excited and uh,

1221
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 1: you know, happy for what the players and coaches on

1222
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 1: those teams were able to accomplish, because it's crazy what

1223
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 1: like what the Seahawks did and how they rebuilt that

1224
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 1: team and how I mean, I feel really bad for

1225
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,760
Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett. You know, Tyler Lockett literally got there right

1226
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: after they were in the Super Bowl and left right

1227
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: before they did this. And then there's obviously the trade

1228
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 1: with DK Metcalf, which is kind of hilarious that you know,

1229
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:02,880
Speaker 1: they lose him and then and then they go to

1230
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. But like taking a chance on Sam Darnold,

1231
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 1: you know, Mike McDonald and his and his defensive mind,

1232
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:10,000
Speaker 1: like it's just it's a really really good story, and

1233
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 1: then obviously what's gone on with New England with Drake

1234
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 1: May and and how Rabel's gotten that defense to play

1235
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 1: as well as as it has. I'm I just I

1236
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 1: want people to walk away from this episode knowing that

1237
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 1: I truly think that both teams deserve a lot of

1238
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 1: props and because of that, you should do your best

1239
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 1: to enjoy that game.

1240
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. All right, we mentioned it earlier, But

1241
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 2: make sure you are signed up for the newsletter at

1242
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 2: late Round and I'll be sitting one out on Friday. Uh,

1243
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 2: if you want to join in on the fund, join

1244
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:47,439
Speaker 2: the Patreon, you can find that link at late round

1245
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 2: dot com as well. And then, uh, if you are

1246
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 2: just bored and you haven't listened already, JJ has some

1247
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 2: things he got right this week, and then he also

1248
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 2: has the mail bag coming out on Friday, so that

1249
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 2: I miss anything.

1250
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: J J, I might have an email blast tomorrow. There's

1251
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:09,000
Speaker 1: there's a possibility we might be Oh, this is breaking

1252
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 1: news to me. Look at something up over the last hours.

1253
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: Once I get into something, I can't stop and I've

1254
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 1: just been thinking about it, so I need to get

1255
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 1: it out there to.

1256
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:19,520
Speaker 2: No, it's good, it's good with all the stuff we've

1257
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 2: got going on. It's good that you add an email

1258
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 2: to the plate, you know, as an outlet to get

1259
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 2: that out of Okay, so on, behalf of JJ I'm Kitchen.

1260
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 2: We'll see you next time, hopefully, hopefully from Super Bowl

1261
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 2: LX in California. Talk to you later, piece,