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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tim Keene along

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Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 1: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 1: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Dodia level.

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Speaker 1: What's great about Nadia is her water bottle, which you

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Speaker 1: can see on YouTube Bloomberg Podcast. Nadia, hold up the

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Speaker 1: water bottle. You're a hydrating. We's going in there. You

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Speaker 1: see how it's look at that. It's matchie matching with

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Speaker 1: what she's wearing. It's great. She switches every day to

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Speaker 1: the proper bottle. Nautia level is fabulous. Not having the.

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Speaker 2: Tomorrow that's yes, very good, perfect, We'll go there.

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Speaker 1: I forgot Nadia.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Bend and you love.

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Speaker 1: It's crazy here about Natia level. She sends us love

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Speaker 1: on the courage Paul to be in the market.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, Natia level, senior US equity strategist, Global Wealth Management

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Speaker 2: at UBS so Nadi. We got this inflation print here

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Speaker 2: this morning, a little bit hotter than expected, the market

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Speaker 2: selling off here, the S and P off about one

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Speaker 2: point two percent. What did you take away from this?

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Speaker 2: And I guess more importantly, what do you think FED

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Speaker 2: Chairman J Pal's going to take away?

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Speaker 4: You know, yes, inflation did come in a little bit

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Speaker 4: hotter than we expected. We were looking for two nine

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Speaker 4: on headline and three seven on core.

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Speaker 5: But I don't think that this one data point changed

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Speaker 5: an out if the FAT has been hinted for some

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Speaker 5: time that March rate HEIGHTE was off the table. We

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Speaker 5: have been saying for a few months now that we

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Speaker 5: had expected the first height to start excuse me, the

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Speaker 5: first cut to start in May. And you know, I

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Speaker 5: would say that this does put a make cut at risk,

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Speaker 5: just given the strenth that we're seeing in.

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Speaker 4: The economic data.

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Speaker 5: But I do think that what it does say, though,

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Speaker 5: that the equity market can take some comfort right in

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Speaker 5: the fact that you are seeing strong economic growth and

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Speaker 5: that's what's probably going to cost delay in the rate cuts.

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Speaker 5: And the FED is on standby at the end of

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Speaker 5: the day with.

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Speaker 4: Great latitude that if we see any sort of meaningful.

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Speaker 5: Deterioration in the macrodata, which there are no signs of that,

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Speaker 5: that the FAT can adjust policy very quickly.

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Speaker 4: I don't think at the end of the day, when we.

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Speaker 5: Have a soft landed insight that anyone wants this to

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Speaker 5: dip in a recession. So we think that the FAT

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Speaker 5: will do what's needed to adjust putuntary policy accordingly, but

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Speaker 5: it probably does push out, you know.

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Speaker 4: The sort of a parent cycle or just a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Paul Ian Lingott, being on Capital Markets a get friend

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Speaker 1: of the show he publishes, he says, of CPI super core,

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Speaker 1: super high, and that's what Michael McKee does. When you

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Speaker 1: get the different service sector inflations, they indicated a higher level.

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Speaker 1: And let's get where you get to futures from negative

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Speaker 1: twenty to negative sixty three. NASTAC futures down one point

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Speaker 1: eight percent, So.

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Speaker 2: We're seeing a market move here and yields higher NADIA.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we're about seventy percent way through this

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Speaker 2: earnings period right here. How are you what's your takeaway here?

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Speaker 2: How's corporate America doing?

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Speaker 4: I think corporate America is doing well.

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Speaker 5: When you look at the earning season for the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 5: I mean companies are beaten. We're seeing earnings trending towards

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Speaker 5: seven percent growth for the quarter, which is a little

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Speaker 5: bit better than we had expected. You also see some

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Speaker 5: confirmation from the commentary from companies of what we're seeing

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Speaker 5: in the macro data sort of some green shoots in

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Speaker 5: the manufacturing areas of the economy. You're seeing a pickup

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Speaker 5: an M and A activity and capital markets activity. So

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Speaker 5: that's quite tourising and I think what's more important, though

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Speaker 5: the full year numbers remain in tach with the consensus

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Speaker 5: looking for double digit earned its growth, we're looking for

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Speaker 5: something roughly in line with that, and I think you're

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Speaker 5: also seeing confirmation of the strength and technology. We know

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Speaker 5: that tech has been a crowded trade, but these companies

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Speaker 5: are really starting to grow into their evaluation.

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Speaker 4: So that's quite encouraging as well.

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Speaker 1: On the equity front, do you we feel restrictive? One

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Speaker 1: of the great debates here with the real yield, the

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Speaker 1: ten year real yield out of two point two point

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Speaker 1: zero one percent, it's now pulled back it's one point

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Speaker 1: nine eight percent. Not here does the inflation adjusted oil

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Speaker 1: in the engine. Does it begin to gum up and

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Speaker 1: restrict the system?

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Speaker 4: I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the consumer.

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Speaker 5: Still has a lot of excess savings and corporate balance

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Speaker 5: sheets are remaining strong. And ultimately, I mean the reality is,

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Speaker 5: we do think that the FED is going to cut

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Speaker 5: this year by lease one hundred bases points or so,

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Speaker 5: and that should help bring down our bondios. We're looking

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Speaker 5: for the ten year to end the year at three

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Speaker 5: and a half percent. Yes, in your term, we're looking

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Speaker 5: for more of a trade and range of three seventy

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Speaker 5: five to four and a quarter. But we think as

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Speaker 5: you get in the back half of the year that

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Speaker 5: yields will start to normalize and we still expect inflation

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Speaker 5: to main on that disinflationary trend over the next six months.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we think that you're starting to see the

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Speaker 5: slowdown and rents. Continued pull back in vehicle prices should

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Speaker 5: also help, and improvement in supply chain should help.

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Speaker 4: So when we get into the backup.

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Speaker 5: Of year, we're looking for, you know, inflation to come

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Speaker 5: down to about two and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: All right, giving that backdrop here, what do I do

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Speaker 2: with my tech trade? You know, I've been long the

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Speaker 2: magnificent seven leverage long position and like Nvidia up another

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Speaker 2: forty five percent this year. Do I just kind of

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Speaker 2: ride this tech wave here?

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Speaker 4: We think that you do. I mean, we remain positive

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Speaker 4: on it. I mean I would.

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Speaker 5: Say to Tom, who might be still the triple leverage hash,

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Speaker 5: you know, to take up opportunities and take advantages of

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Speaker 5: the pullback that you might see Tag. It would be

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Speaker 5: surprised to see a little bit of consolidation. But when

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Speaker 5: we look out six months tour youar from now, we

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Speaker 5: think that this is the sect that there's going to

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Speaker 5: be higher h We are looking for, you know, Ernie's

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Speaker 5: growth with an executive to be in the high teas

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Speaker 5: and it could even trend into the twenty percent range.

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Speaker 5: And you're also see in reality is recovery in some

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Speaker 5: of the more core areas of SEMI. We know that

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Speaker 5: AI is you know, the innovation story, but you're seeing

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Speaker 5: some recovering some other areas, and so we do think

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Speaker 5: that there's some more upset to tech.

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Speaker 1: Nadia, thank you now your level hydrated it you'd be

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Speaker 1: a sweet appreciate your effort this morning. Like Gwynn joins

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Speaker 1: now RBC Capital Markets on Apple car Play and on

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Speaker 1: YouTube Bloomberg podcast Plake. Let me go right there, the

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Speaker 1: real yield out to two percent, What does that signify

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Speaker 1: to the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean, I think, you know, this is part

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Speaker 6: of why we had been talking about custody begin with,

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Speaker 6: is really that they're looking at these real yields. They

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Speaker 6: don't want a passive tightening real yields. As inflation continues

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Speaker 6: to fall, you know, even if they kind of stay

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Speaker 6: at that same rate, it just keeps getting tighter and tighter.

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Speaker 6: So I think part of the reason we've at least

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Speaker 6: we've been calling for cuts for quite some time is

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Speaker 6: you know, not that we needed We felt the FEN

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Speaker 6: needed to get easier, more commodated, just because those real

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Speaker 6: yields that they do nothing to the nominal target are

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Speaker 6: just going to be getting tighter and tighter.

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Speaker 3: So certainly something I think.

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Speaker 6: That that's focused on those real yields, and that's part

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Speaker 6: of the wins which they're looking at to to deliver

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Speaker 6: these cuts.

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Speaker 1: Well, I got to go to theater and Paul wants

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Speaker 1: to jump in some with some market moving questions. S

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Speaker 1: and B futures plunging negative fifty eight, the down futures

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Speaker 1: down three hundred and twenty points in Nasdaq on a

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Speaker 1: percentage basis, down one point five percent the markets move.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned a passive restriction. Are we now restrictive because

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Speaker 1: the market's saying so? Are we now restrictive because the

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Speaker 1: Fed's dawdling around?

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Speaker 3: Well? Well, this is a real question about what's restricted here,

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Speaker 3: because I.

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Speaker 6: Mean, I think part of what you're seeing over the

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Speaker 6: last month is a little bit of doubt creeping into

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Speaker 6: the you know, to the Fed, that that they are

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Speaker 6: actually as restrictive as they thought.

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Speaker 3: I mean, how can you argue, you know, we've.

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Speaker 6: Been above what most people would have ex anti considered

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Speaker 6: a neutral rate. We've been above that for a year now,

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Speaker 6: and we're still seeing data as strong. You know, it

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Speaker 6: gets harder and harder to argue that you're well into

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Speaker 6: restrictive if you know, the economic conditions just aren't necessarily

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Speaker 6: suggesting that.

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Speaker 2: So, Blake, are you in the camp that says May

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Speaker 2: is a period where the FED should cut rates? And

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Speaker 2: if so, do you think they will?

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Speaker 3: No? We we've actually very for for a very long time.

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Speaker 3: We've been in the June camp.

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Speaker 6: So this goes back to this goes back to June

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Speaker 6: and July last year, we have the same FED call.

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Speaker 3: We've kept it all the way through. We've been very steady.

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Speaker 6: We see a June first cut, we have four cuts

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Speaker 6: after that, so it a cumulative five cuts for twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty four.

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you this data today NFP on Friday.

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Speaker 6: It makes me feel more confident about the June part

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Speaker 6: of that equation. I think this really brings in a

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Speaker 6: question whether they're going to have to do anything in

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Speaker 6: May or whether they are going to do anything in May.

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Speaker 6: You know, those are two separate questions, what they will

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Speaker 6: do and what they should do. You know, I think

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Speaker 6: June certainly looks like the starting point where I'm starting

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Speaker 6: to get a little bit worried about that call.

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Speaker 3: Like I said, we've had it for a very long time.

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Speaker 6: But you know, the five cuts is where I'm starting

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Speaker 6: to get a little bit more concerned because I think,

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Speaker 6: you know, the inflation data alone, in this kind of

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Speaker 6: passive tightening we're talking about in real rates, I think

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Speaker 6: that's enough on its own for the feed to start cutting,

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Speaker 6: but without any kind of signs of weakness or slowing

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Speaker 6: on the growth or the labor side of the mandate.

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Speaker 3: You know, where's the urgency.

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Speaker 6: I think, you know, now you start talking about a

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Speaker 6: scenario where yeah, sure you start cutting in June, but

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Speaker 6: you know, are they going to go five times or

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Speaker 6: are they going to take rates all the way back

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Speaker 6: to you know, we have them going to three point

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Speaker 6: fifty in twenty twenty five. That's the piece of it

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Speaker 6: that I think starts to really get called in a

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Speaker 6: question here is how aggressively they go and where do

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Speaker 6: they end up stopping.

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Speaker 2: So like, there are a lot of folks out there,

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Speaker 2: both on the academic front and in the markets a

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Speaker 2: practice miitioners that say the FEDS already behind look at

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Speaker 2: the data they should be cutting. Now, what do you

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Speaker 2: say to those.

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Speaker 3: Folks, what data are they? I mean, you know, we

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Speaker 3: had a great NFP report. You know, we had a

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Speaker 3: pretty solid CPI report. You know.

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Speaker 6: I just think that you know, this idea that things

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Speaker 6: that cracks are showing that we're, you know, we're.

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Speaker 3: In problematic territory.

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Speaker 6: I think a lot of times people tend to look

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Speaker 6: at the delta, they look at the changes of how

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Speaker 6: the day is changing. But when you look at the

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Speaker 6: level of where we're actually at, I mean, across most metrics.

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Speaker 3: We're still in a very healthy economic scenario.

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Speaker 6: So I think going more slowly making sure, you know,

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Speaker 6: the FED just really wants to make sure that inflation

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Speaker 6: dragon is really slayed.

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Speaker 1: So Blake, when expand on problematic territory, what in God's

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Speaker 1: name does it? Was that in Fibosi? I don't remember

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Speaker 1: that Blake expand on what problematic territory means?

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Speaker 3: Well in what respects for the data?

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Speaker 1: Or I'm asking? I got an inflation report, yuh? I

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Speaker 1: mean it's been up up in a way. I know,

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Speaker 1: this is what's called a mini correction. Futures down fifty seven.

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Speaker 1: I get at the vics fourteen point before I forget

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Speaker 1: about the stock market chit chat. Is this inflation report

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Speaker 1: problematic for Jerome Powell?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 6: I I you know, I really don't think so. I mean,

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Speaker 6: I think it certainly raises an eyebrow. I think the

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Speaker 6: overall trend, you know, you guys were saying before you

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Speaker 6: came over to me. I mean, I think the overall

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Speaker 6: trend is still positive.

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Speaker 3: You know, I don't. I don't think there's.

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Speaker 6: Anything necessarily here that they're worried about a reacceleration. I think,

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Speaker 6: you know, we've gotten some decent proof, you know, over

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Speaker 6: the last six months a year that a lot of

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Speaker 6: the inflationary pressure we were seeing, you know, whether it

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Speaker 6: was supply side, whether it was demand side, that I

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Speaker 6: care a little bit less about those specifics, But looking

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Speaker 6: at as a hole, I think we can say that

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Speaker 6: a lot of it was absolutely pandemic related. You know,

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Speaker 6: like I said, that could be supply side, you know,

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Speaker 6: with with supply chain shutting down, it could be demand side,

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Speaker 6: with you know, changes in the way people are consuming

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Speaker 6: service is.

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Speaker 3: Good, et cetera.

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Speaker 6: But either way, a lot of that seems to be

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Speaker 6: pandemic related, seems to be an idiosyncratic and it has

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Speaker 6: come off. So I think this kind of, you know,

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Speaker 6: the idea that we would kick off some kind of

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Speaker 6: waste price viral or that we were in some kind

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Speaker 6: of new inflationary process, I think that window has mostly closed.

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Speaker 6: I mean, certainly the FED doesn't want inflation taking back up,

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Speaker 6: but I think you know, they're not looking at each

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Speaker 6: individual prints and you know, overreacting too much. And I

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Speaker 6: think the overall trend, the overall trend here is still

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Speaker 6: positive for the BED. I mean, they're not going to

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Speaker 6: look at a minor beat today and start you know,

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Speaker 6: raising alarm bells. I mean, I think you know, overall,

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Speaker 6: they're very happy with where we're where we've gone.

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Speaker 2: So Blake, we've got to ten year treasury up ten

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Speaker 2: basis points here four point two eight percent. Where do

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Speaker 2: you think this is? Ten years is going to be

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Speaker 2: a year end?

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Speaker 6: So right now we have it a three eighty, you know,

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Speaker 6: so we do have that moving lower. I think you know,

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Speaker 6: again that was premised on this idea that they start

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Speaker 6: cutting in June. They you know, cut it a i'd

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Speaker 6: say a relatively you know, moderate pace going once per meeting.

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Speaker 6: But you know that that is that is part where

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Speaker 6: I feel a little bit less comfortable about.

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Speaker 3: And now I'm sorry to wonder.

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Speaker 6: You know, we have twos that uh you know, we

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Speaker 6: have twos at three ninety five. So we've taken out

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Speaker 6: of our forecast. Just last week we took out some

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Speaker 6: of the kind of steepening that we had, that that

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Speaker 6: bull steepening that you tend to get on the start

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Speaker 6: of a cutting cycle, right you know, if the data

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Speaker 6: is this strong and the FED goes on, you know,

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Speaker 6: if the markets are thinking about the possibility of in

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Speaker 6: every other meeting type of pace, or they're thinking about

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Speaker 6: the FED cutting to a terminal rate of you know,

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Speaker 6: three seventy five or.

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Speaker 3: Four percent, so three fifty you know, those front end

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Speaker 3: yields are are are not going to rally in the

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Speaker 3: way that that we've been calling for.

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Speaker 6: So we we kind of have taken out some of

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Speaker 6: that curve lattening, and two's not rallying as much.

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Speaker 3: So that's really where we're seeing.

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Speaker 1: Someone got to leave it there, Blakequin, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Dan I's promised me the market would never go down again.

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Speaker 1: He was wrong, joining us down from webbush of course,

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Speaker 1: ubiquitous with a bullsh call on technology. We're going to

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Speaker 1: focus this entire next eight minutes six minutes with Dana

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Speaker 1: Ives on Apple. Dan ives, why has Apple lagged the others.

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Speaker 7: Because iPhone growth has lack right, I mean this is

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Speaker 7: something we've seen in China. The upgrade cycles happen, I

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Speaker 7: think been better than many a feared, but it's not

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Speaker 7: been iPod and I think this is the start we've

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Speaker 7: talked about of the renaissance of growth that's going to

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Speaker 7: happen over the next twelve to eight months. Or we

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Speaker 7: believe Apple significantly outperforms even the rest of tech.

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Speaker 1: Is your reporting? Dan Eves that the new iPhone that

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Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney asked to buy what for Paul for your family?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Is a new iPhone an up upgrade? Or is it

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Speaker 1: just another iteration of the one I got in my hands?

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Speaker 7: Look, I think in terms of iPhone fifteen, that's obviously

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Speaker 7: just been an upgrade that's been strong from a technology

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Speaker 7: around camera and speed. But the big one's iPhone sixteen.

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Speaker 7: I mean we've talked about it. Yes, today our checks

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Speaker 7: are shown. From a memory perspective, this is going to

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Speaker 7: have AI technology built into the phone. I think, what

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Speaker 7: is the start of the dance stuff?

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Speaker 1: What in God's name did you just say? What is

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Speaker 1: AI technology in Paul Sweeney's phone?

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Speaker 7: So they're gonna have essentially their own lms, their own

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Speaker 7: language models built into the actual iPhone, So that that's

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Speaker 7: going to be for consumers to do all types of

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Speaker 7: apps that they could actually launch, technology around animation what

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Speaker 7: I from a fitness perspective, it's gonna ease you know,

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Speaker 7: it's going to create a whole another ecosystem for Apple,

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Speaker 7: which we believe starts with the AI app stores that

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Speaker 7: they're going to talk about at WWDC in June.

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Speaker 1: Is an example, Paul, you can type in on your

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Speaker 1: iPhone sixteen. Should I spend thirty nine hundred dollars to

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Speaker 1: see Louisville lose to do.

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Speaker 2: Exactly and you'll get a screen pro by the vision Pro. Hey, Dan,

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Speaker 2: we've got you know. Apple obviously a two point nine

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Speaker 2: trillion dollar market cap stock. It's do about three percent

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Speaker 2: year to date, and I would argue that I guess

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Speaker 2: the investor concerns out there. If you could just underline one,

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Speaker 2: it would be China. Give us your latest sense of

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Speaker 2: China in terms of an end market ultimate demand for

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Speaker 2: Apple products going forward. What's your view?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Look, I'm not saying it's roses and champagne, but

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Speaker 7: from a lunar New year perspective, we believe it's up

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Speaker 7: year of a year, and I think they're going to

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Speaker 7: be able to actually return to growth in China despite

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Speaker 7: the Huawei, despite geopolitical because you have two hundred and

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Speaker 7: ten million iPhones in China and there've been share gained.

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Speaker 7: So so my view here is right now, the New

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Speaker 7: York City cab driver, it could be bearish in Apple,

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Speaker 7: it's the relative to broader tech as we expect tech

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Speaker 7: continue to move higher. But when we look at Apple

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Speaker 7: two point two billion, that's the active devices. Now AI

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Speaker 7: is coming to the party in Cooper Tino, and we

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Speaker 7: think a year from now we're to four trillion dollar market.

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Speaker 2: Hey, Dan the I'm just looking at the FA functional

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Speaker 2: in the Bloomberg terminal, which has consensus revenue estimates for

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Speaker 2: Apple over the next seven years. Kind of let's just

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Speaker 2: call it mid single digits. Yet I'm paying a twenty

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Speaker 2: eight multiple for those for that type of revenue growth.

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Speaker 2: How do you kind of square that? Is that something

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Speaker 2: you have to convince your investor clients to kind of

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Speaker 2: deal with.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's very similar to how what we

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Speaker 7: do with Microsoft or Nvidia. For Amazon, it's really showing

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Speaker 7: that the services piece that high growth the multiple for

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Speaker 7: that Key and I talked about this a lot. I

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Speaker 7: mean one point five to one point six trillion, and

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Speaker 7: that's that's the modization. Why Cook and company, whether there's

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Speaker 7: a mount rushmore with Tim Cook and the Della but Microsoft, if.

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Speaker 1: These guys are you know, fanboys, I mean, if if

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Speaker 1: the CFO and the CEO of fanboys like Dan Ives

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Speaker 1: and they're looking at Apple behind over X number of

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Speaker 1: months or whatever. Do you see them doing strategic decisions

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Speaker 1: like a new bond offering and enhanced share buyback. Sweeney

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Speaker 1: wants a dividend increase. What are they going to do

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Speaker 1: with the use of the mother of all cash they've got,

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Speaker 1: Given that Apple's lagged.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think it's getting to a point they're going

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Speaker 7: to have to do potentially some accelerated buy back, or

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Speaker 7: if they don't do M and A, which has never

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Speaker 7: been the sort of the DNA obviously Kubertina, they're going

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Speaker 7: to have to do some capital allocation changes and look,

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Speaker 7: and that's why it goes back to when I look

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Speaker 7: at Apple from some of the parts, there's so much

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Speaker 7: more that could go right than wrong, especially what's factored

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Speaker 7: into the stock. And I think AI starts with the

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Speaker 7: godfather of Ai Jensen Nvidian Microsoft, but it doesn't end there.

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Speaker 7: The consumer piece is going to be twenty four and

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Speaker 7: twenty five, and Apple's in your front and center.

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Speaker 2: Dan, you mentioned the Developer conference in June for Apple,

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Speaker 2: and oftentimes in the past that's been a big, big

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Speaker 2: analyst for the company for the stock. Give us a

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Speaker 2: little preview what we might see from our friends at Apple.

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Speaker 7: Book and I'm sure Germer will talk about this as well.

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Speaker 7: I think it's where they start to intu generated AI

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Speaker 7: from a developer perspective. I think it starts with an

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Speaker 7: AI app store. That's that's going to be the first piece,

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Speaker 7: and then that's going to lead into an iPhone sixteen

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Speaker 7: and includes generative AI exclusive to Apple ecosysts, and it

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Speaker 7: starts that modization and I think even a further rerating

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Speaker 7: to where I see that renaissance are great over the coming.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you're wired and understand. I don't mean to interrupt,

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Speaker 1: but I think this is critical. I get an iPhone

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Speaker 1: sixteen in eight months June. You said, so Labor Day

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Speaker 1: you get a new phone. What am I gonna AI?

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Speaker 1: E I EIO do? What am I actually going to

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Speaker 1: do in AI on my iPhone?

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Speaker 7: So you can I'll just give you like an example,

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Speaker 7: So you have a picture the day you've taken on

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Speaker 7: your iPhone sixteen. You now could actually superimpose you Paul

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Speaker 7: at a duke game, okay, and then basically take that

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Speaker 7: picture and it actually looks from an animation perspective that

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Speaker 7: you're actually in the picture, and you can actually create

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Speaker 7: movies from that. Those are examples of just a little

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Speaker 7: tip of the iceberg in terms of the examples of

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Speaker 7: what consumers and I think vision pro you're seeing some

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Speaker 7: remnants of that. But that's what you're going to essentially

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Speaker 7: be able to do in the iPhone in the coming years.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we're gonna have to leave it there, Dan, I

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Speaker 1: thank you for the brief, and we focus there of

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Speaker 1: the entire day and Apple. That was a real luxury.

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Speaker 1: He's got a lot of other capabilities. Today's from page headlines.

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Speaker 1: Lisa came in, She's gonna do an all tailored newspaper thing.

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Speaker 1: I said, no, I'm done with Taylor. Start with something different. Please,

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Speaker 1: what do you guys?

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Speaker 8: We will well, so were John Stewart. He returned last night,

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Speaker 8: host of the Daily Show. You know he's going to

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Speaker 8: be on every Monday, so he returned. It was classic

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Speaker 8: John Stewart style, right. He first answered the question on

438
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 8: everyone's minds. Listen up, why am I back?

439
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 1: You may be asking yourselves. It's a very reasonable question.

440
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,959
Speaker 1: I have committed a lot of crimes from what I understand.

441
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,400
Speaker 1: Talk show hosts our granded immunity.

442
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 3: So there you go.

443
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 8: So he kicked off the season. He did that Shoe's

444
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 8: signature franchise indecision election coverage, he talked about yes, Taylor Swift,

445
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 8: the Super Bowl conspiracy theory surrounding it, right, But he's

446
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 8: just he's back and full forth. I'm curious to see

447
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,360
Speaker 8: how the ratings pop helped me here.

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00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 1: Did you just say he's not only one day a week?

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00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 1: Mondays Paul, I don't get this. I mean, you know,

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00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: the wonderful Rachel Meadow's doing the same thing, and many

451
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: others out there. How do you build a franchise if

452
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: you're as an ept as I am, you can't do

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00:21:58,200 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 1: it one day a week.

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00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: I think he's already got the franchise. This is throwing

455
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 2: a bone into the network and say, hey, we'd love

456
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 2: to have you as much as we can get you.

457
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: I'll give you one day a week and we'll do

458
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 2: it through the election. So that's his gig. He's going

459
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,199
Speaker 2: to do it through the election. So it's not a

460
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 2: long term, but he gets a play. And I'll tell

461
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 2: you TV is so desperate for any relevance broadcasts linear

462
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 2: televisions brought, you know, so desperate for relevance networks and they.

463
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 8: Haven't had much. He tried to get something with Apple TV,

464
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 8: going that Apple.

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00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: But I'll tell you that I listened to the I

466
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 2: watched the show this morning. It's the exact same as

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00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 2: it was, which is exactly what you want, I think.

468
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 8: But it's what brought it to that success in the

469
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 8: first right. All right, we got Tiger Woods, Yes, we

470
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 8: talked about Michael Barr mentioned this moving on from a

471
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 8: split with Nike launching a new apparel line. Now, Paul,

472
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 8: you're the golf guy. So he's going with Tailor Made

473
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 8: Golf Sunday Red. That's what it's called because you know

474
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 8: he wears the red you know, on Sundays for the

475
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 8: final round of tournaments. But it's like an ongoing relationship.

476
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 8: He joined them back with the brand in twenty seventeen.

477
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 8: Like they started this partnership. He's already playing with their

478
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 8: golf clubs. So it seems to be a good partnership.

479
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 8: That's what they're saying that they're going to make decisions together, Like, yeah,

480
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 8: are you Tailor Made?

481
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: I used Tailor Made Woods, I use Callaway Irons. Tailormade's

482
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: a great brand, but it's no Nike. I was surprised

483
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,479
Speaker 2: to see the Nike Tiger Woods split on both sides.

484
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 2: So I guess this is just a question of I

485
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 2: don't know who's got equity ownership and does he have,

486
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: you know, more say over what's going to be done here.

487
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 2: And you know, Nike had backed away from golf a little.

488
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 1: I think of the great Miller Barber who just kept going.

489
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you at the senior course and

490
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: just kept going and going. Is Tiger Woods now a senior.

491
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 2: Not quite a couple of years away, But he's still

492
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 2: still by far the number one driver of anything.

493
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 1: So he's still in the circuit even with this terrible.

494
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 2: Yeah he's playing this week, for example, Adam Los Angeles,

495
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 2: because he's the sponsor this week's tournament.

496
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 1: I I got thirty seconds, Paul, the drunk kids on

497
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: the golf course got it.

498
00:23:57,960 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 2: Just went over the edge, I mean over the edge,

499
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 2: just over the edge, and it's out there in Arizona.

500
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: It's a great tournament, the waste it is and it's

501
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 2: a big party, and they just went over the edge,

502
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: over the line. This year, they got to pull it back,

503
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 2: pull it.

504
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: Back right away. One final story there, Lisao.

505
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 8: Tell her swift come on, Bob, discipline Okay, here's the thing.

506
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 8: They put a priced tag on her airtime during the

507
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 8: Super Bowl. She was on for fifty three seconds.

508
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 2: Okay, so if a four hour brought.

509
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 8: So if you if you factor in the cost of

510
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 8: a thirty second commercial, right seven million dollars, that airtime

511
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 8: was worth twelve point four million dollars.

512
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 2: And so for the people that are complaining that she

513
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: gets too much airtime, it was fifty four seconds and

514
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 2: a three and a half or four hour broadcasts listen up.

515
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 6: And it was great for CBS.

516
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 2: They're happy because it brought in more viewers, record viewership.

517
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: Everybody's happy.

518
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: Even tell you the game for free? Can I Can

519
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: I just say there is a videotape out there on YouTube,

520
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 1: thank you for watching a YouTube Bloomberg podcast. And one

521
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: night at a place called the Bluebird Cafe in Nashville,

522
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 1: and this happens all the time. One night Steve Tyler

523
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 1: from Aerosmith came out of the audience. This blonde comes

524
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: out of the audience and picks up guitar and she

525
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: sat on a stool without any of the modern hot air,

526
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: and she blew the room away, just the chops, just

527
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 1: the ability. I think all of that has been obscured

528
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: by all this. Who she's seeing, Travis whatever. Go look

529
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 1: at the Bloomberg Cafe video of Taylor Swift with the

530
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: guitar in her hands and nothing else, and it's I'll

531
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: say that, it is just beyond impressive. This is a

532
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment,

533
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show on YouTube.

534
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the

535
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 1: show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from

536
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the

537
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and

538
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg

539
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: Business app