WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Desperate For Iran Off-Ramp As His Popularity Sinks + Most Vulnerable Incumbents In 2026 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:02.240 This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:00:02.279 --> 0:00:04.800 by Incognate. You know, one of the things we talk 0:00:05.040 --> 0:00:07.880 a lot about on this podcast is trust, who deserves 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:09.920 it and who doesn't. And lately I've been thinking about 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:14.200 how much of our personal information is just floating around online. 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:17.920 I'm talking about phone numbers, home addresses, emails, even information 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.400 about your family, all sitting on websites you've probably never 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:22.720 heard of. In the scary part, that information can be 0:00:22.840 --> 0:00:26.600 used by scammers and identity thieves to piece together enough 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:30.800 details to impersonate you, target you, or worse. 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Use the code you get a discal again, 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:32.280 that's in cogni dot com slash chucktodcast and use the 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.520 code Chuck podcast to get sixty percent off and start 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:40.520 taking control of your personal data today. Trust me, I'm 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:44.440 constantly working on this for years myself, and here's an 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:46.919 opportunity for you to take matters into your own hands 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:53.480 as well. Hello thereon, Welcome to the Wednesday episode of 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.960 the Chuck Podcast. So on Monday, I left you with 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:59.160 a little bit of a cliffhanger, right, I said I 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:02.520 had a new announcement coming and involved sports history, and 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:05.520 of course the minute it loaded, it turned out my 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.280 friends at Variety were dropping their story on Monday, not Tuesday, 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:10.840 and I was not trying to hide it from anybody. 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:13.640 I thought it was all hitting on Tuesday, so I 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.400 was trying to respect the embargoes that I'd done with 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:22.680 some coverage. But yes, I've teamed up with longtime sports 0:02:22.760 --> 0:02:26.000 journalists Ja Donde. You may know Ja from his work 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:28.120 at the Washington Post or his work at the LA Times. 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.000 That's where I first got to know him and read them. 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:34.360 As a Dodger fan, I would consume anything Ja wrote 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:36.639 about the Dodgers, but would also follow his other work 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:39.520 as well, and then, of course, as part of the 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:42.560 hour long must see TV for the longest period of 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:45.520 time on ESPN when he had Around the Horn at 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:48.960 five pm Eastern and PTI at five thirty pm Eastern. 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.839 Around the Horn is no longer with us. Ja's been 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:57.640 He also is at the Medill's School and has been 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:01.079 doing that at Midill at Northwestern, teaching sports journalism for 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:06.119 I think it goes back to about twenty seventeen. So look, 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:12.320 we've teamed up to do recall it dynastic, and basically 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:14.880 what it is is every month Jay and I are 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:18.760 going to do a deep dive on a franchise, whether 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:21.400 it's a professional sports franchise or a college sports program 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:27.200 that is gone to another level. Right, there's sort of 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.680 there's that where they become iconic right, what makes a 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:36.680 team or a program go from simply successful to that 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:40.480 next level to become iconic? And we will make no bones. 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:44.880 We are absolutely inspired by our friends over at Acquired 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:47.840 what they've done for the business world, long form storytelling 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.560 about how the great institutions in the business world were built. 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.800 You know, they've done Google and JP Morgan Chase. They've 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:56.960 even dabbled and talked about the NFL and F one 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:01.040 Is businesses And honestly, we're you know, great ideas like 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.120 why not do this for sports? And we're applying the 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.040 same approach to sports franchises and programs. We want to 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:09.440 discuss the key people in the history of that franchise, 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:11.600 the decisions of turning points of forks on the road. 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:14.440 So our first episode dropped Tuesday. You may have gotten 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:16.279 it in the feed already, you may going, what the 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:21.039 hell is this? And our first franchise that we're doing 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:24.000 a deep dive is the Dodgers, the La Dodgers. It's 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:28.280 a franchise that has spent decades chasing the Yankees in 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:33.280 prestige in World Series Championships. Right, you know, in many 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.080 ways it was always that's the measuring stick. But along 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.120 the way in order to chase the Yankees, they ended 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:44.279 up becoming probably arguably the most innovative sports organization in 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:48.280 all of sports history, regardless of sport that you pick. 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:51.599 In order to catch the Yankees, they had to be 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.320 the innovators, and usually that's what happens, right. Necessity is 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:58.200 the mother of all invention, right. And of course the 0:04:58.240 --> 0:05:02.760 story doesn't start there. The story begins in this little 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:06.720 borough before it even became a borough of New York City, Brooklyn, 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:10.520 New York. Eighteen eighty three is when the franchise was born. 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:14.000 Happened to be the same year that the Brooklyn Bridge opened, 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:18.080 and within six or seven years Brooklyn itself would become 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.720 part of New York City. But that's sort of how 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.720 we're going to go through this, and Jay and I 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.160 are both get involved with the research, and it really 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:29.599 is sort of are we're making the argument. That's sort 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:33.720 of like we're making the case why this franchise X 0:05:33.920 --> 0:05:35.680 is iconic. So every month we're going to take a 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:39.000 deep dive into an iconic franchise. So this month it's 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:43.720 the Dodgers. It'll be from teams you love, in teams 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:48.640 you hate, and everyone in between. The curious those that 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:50.599 you're curious about. So the Dodgers this month, we're going 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:53.960 to tackle the Pittsburgh Steelers in April. They will be 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:56.600 the franchise that hosts the NFL Draft, so we thought 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.040 that would the timing of that will be good. We're 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.479 going to do these every month. In between each episode 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.880 sort of again borrowing a you know, we're not trying 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:06.760 to reinvent the wheel here, borrowing a page from our 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:09.840 friends that acquired We'll also have a have an episode 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:16.120 with somebody who can sort of talk about the franchise 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:21.120 in more personal terms. Look, we're doing this independently. We 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.360 have no patron for any time we do this. So 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:25.200 I think as much as we know there are plenty 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:31.000 of sports documentaries out there and episodic you know sort 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.039 of takes on you know, various individual players part of 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:38.200 a franchise, we are not taking our cues from anybody. 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.880 We are simply doing it. Really, I look at it 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:43.080 through the eyes of a of a want to be 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:47.240 a historian, Right, I'm a history junkie, and I think 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:49.719 what I love about Jaa and our partnership is that 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.760 he you know, he's not he's as interested in the 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:54.359 off the field stuff as he is in the on 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.159 the field stuff just like I am. And in that sense, 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.760 I think this is why this partnership is already working. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.200 I'd like to think. So take a listen. It's a 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.760 couple takes more than it's more than two hours, right, 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:13.160 you can't you know you're telling the story. It takes 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.360 more than a thirty minute episode. But we don't expect 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:18.880 you to listen to it in one listening. We know 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:20.520 that you know it may be that's why we're going 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:22.800 to do one of these a month and not try 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:26.080 to make you consume this here. But it's a lot 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:31.560 of fun. It's a labor of love for me, and 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.520 it's just been amazing to get to know Ja and 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.160 to work with him. Special shout out to the sort 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.800 of the godfather of this idea, the third partner in 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:45.400 this my longtime friend and colleague Steve Hall as well. 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:48.040 So I hope you give it a chance. It's called Dynastics. 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:50.960 Subscribe today wherever you get to all your podcasts me on, 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:55.520 iHeart already it's being syndicated there. And look, each episode 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:58.080 we come up with a we're both Jay and I 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:02.480 have a mount rushmore of the four most iconic people 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:07.360 associated with that franchise Hard Stop. You know, I will 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:10.400 argue for more than you know, multiple amount rushmores that 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.360 we could come up with, but we decided to lean 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:14.440 into that gimmick. And we know it's a fun gimmick, 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:19.119 and yes it's a gimmick, but it to just narrow 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:23.000 it down to four creates fun little debates. So we'd 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:26.880 love to hear from you. Don't be shy about giving 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:28.800 us your opinion on this. Trust me, in the world 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.840 of sports. The only place where people are more opinionated 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.160 in the world of sports is of course, in the 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:36.480 world of politics. So I hope you'll check it out. 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:41.840 I appreciate the patients in this feed that I've added 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:46.240 to it. As for this episode, we got a lot 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.200 of a lot of interesting nuggets on all things having 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:50.600 to do aroun. I have a little bit of a 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:54.000 campaign twenty twenty six update, including a fascinating new top 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.960 five list, a unique take on my top five this week, 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:01.720 which is top five most likely state wide incumbents to 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.400 lose to not return to office, so slightly different it 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.400 would be either gov or sitting governors or sitting senators, 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:11.840 but the five most vulnerable of those. I thought it 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:18.640 would be a different way to slice that idea. Going forward, 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:23.720 We'll take some questions, but obviously, in the world of politics, 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.280 it is still we are still living in one story 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:31.320 that is going to continue and will continue to dominate, 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:36.560 and that is all things Iran. It is as as 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.720 has been foreshadowed on this podcast, and I've said in 0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:43.599 other places, Donald Trump was not going to have a 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:45.600 lot of patience and he was going to look for 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:48.640 an exit ramp. And he is certainly trying to talk 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:54.520 talk his way into getting out of this war that 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:58.800 he got himself into. And it's clear he is struggling 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:02.160 with the political pain is causing because remember, as I 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:09.679 reminded you on Monday, the people feeling the immediate tax 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.560 hike from this war, and in this case, the tax 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.640 height is the rise in gas prices. It is more 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:22.360 folks who supported him, right, this is this gap. When 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:26.400 gas prices go up, it is folks in rural and 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:33.439 exurban America who are hit hardest. Well, that is geographically 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:38.400 the heart of the Trump political base. So this is 0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:42.880 having a huge impact on his side politically, which is 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:45.440 why he knows and is so desperate to find his 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:50.719 way out, But what does victory actually look like. It's 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:54.280 a question that Donald Trump is trying to He's like, 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:57.600 if we can they pledged never to have a nuclear bomb, 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.360 which they had actually pledged to do before, or if 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:03.800 they get we destroyed their navy, he's saying, and we're 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:08.199 able to get them from doing a state sponsor of terrorism. 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.280 But and he's trying to say, and there's gonna be 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:13.840 new people in the regime, so it's kind of like 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:17.880 regime change. Yeah, but it's not regime change, right, And 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:23.439 that's the problem. He's trying to spitball how he would 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:28.800 sell victory in this, But this is the problem he's in, 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:31.360 is that there is no easy way out of here, 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.600 and there's not a good answer because there might not. 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:37.000 There's no victory he can declare in the next four 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:41.160 to six weeks. And at this point they kind of 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:43.760 know it. And it looks like he is desperate to 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:46.480 get out of this energy crisis that he's helped create. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:48.679 So we've arrived at one of those moments in American 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:53.080 form policy where every path forward carries risks. And this 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.400 is I've said up before, he boxed himself in. He 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:59.480 boxed the country in You know, no matter your political persuasions, 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:04.000 your political feelings about Donald Trump, America's prestige is on 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:07.760 the line here and that's a huge problem. So what 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:12.840 are the options that are facing it. It's clear that militarily, 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.640 he's being given the option to escalate. Right, we continue 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:19.320 to send more troops who look like they would be 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:21.679 the first troops on the boots on the ground for 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.560 some sort of ground incursion. Maybe it's just simply to 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.800 keep this straight of horn moves open. But the type 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.760 of resources we're sending over there now is in case 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.280 the President makes the decision and gives the green light 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:38.280 to putting actual American troops on the ground in Iran. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.240 But of course that's an escalation. And if you do that, 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:44.520 that risks a wider regional war and more energy shocks 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.800 and a long term commitment with no clear endgame. If 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:50.360 you're doing what he's doing now, he's trying to hurry 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.040 up and de escalate, okay, but he risks something that's 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:57.840 potentially just as dangerous, handing Iran a strategic victory without 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:02.840 ever formally admitting it. Right, the Jemes survived who won this? 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:08.520 For Yes, we've absolutely eviscerated their military, and we've certainly 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:13.320 degraded their ability to cause problems for the United States. 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:17.959 What about for the region itself? And any circumstance that 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.960 he's negotiating at the moment continues to keep. And this 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:26.640 is where geography is Iran's best weapon. Here they're going 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.320 to have a large say over who gets to travel 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:35.520 through the Straight of Hormones. So former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:40.960 who was the Defense secretary for Donald Trump in his 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.520 first term, and he's no Iran dove, trust me on this, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.520 but he put it as bluntly as anyone has. Earlier 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.520 this week, he said, the United States declares victory and 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.000 steps back. Now, Iran will effectively claim control of the 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:56.280 Strait of Horn moves. And we know what that means. 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:58.960 It means that any moment in time they can essentially 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:03.840 create an energy problem for the United States and the world, 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:07.400 but it's a political problem for the US and is 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:09.920 you know, he had his own warning here was even 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:15.480 more vivid because he expects that under any scenario, they're 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:20.720 going to start to charge basically charging attacks on global 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.760 shipping to go through the Strait of ormentors because if 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:28.240 you were then, you know, Israel wants regime change. How 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.840 do you know that they've set it? Prime Minister that 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:35.440 now who's said it? So they're not going to feel secure. 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.160 Is the United States is going to guarantee that the 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:46.400 US would somehow prevent Israel from attacking them? Again? Are 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.080 we going to do that? Is Israel going to sign 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:54.080 off on that? I'm skeptical. So here we are, we're 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:56.560 going to be in a situation where the Iranians will 0:14:56.560 --> 0:15:00.200 control the strait, this regime will control the straight. I mean, 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:05.240 still roughly twenty percent of the world's oil passes through 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:11.200 this narrow passage, and that continues to give the Arminians 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:16.560 leverage over the global economy. So it's hard to imagine that. 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:19.720 First of all, they didn't have this much. You know, 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.040 they arguably always kind of had this leverage if they 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.320 chose to use it, but there was an uneasy piece 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:28.280 that was there. But now by engaging in this, they 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:33.360 know and what is their incentive not to continue to 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:37.840 cause disruptions because they know their days are numbered if 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:41.000 they just sort of stand pat So it's hard to 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.880 it's hard to see how we get an uneasy cease 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:48.720 fire here that somehow is attainable in sticks. I hope 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:50.200 I'm wrong. I don't think any of us want to 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:55.240 see a war that escalates where we have American young 0:15:55.280 --> 0:16:00.560 American men and women coming home in body bags fighting 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:04.120 a war of choice. Yes, aron's a menace, but it 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.960 would be a war of choice. Is this the time 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:14.160 to have this war? I think we know what the 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:18.000 answer to that is, and certainly President Trump has created 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.640 a situation with our allies that makes it where we're 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:23.800 going in alone on this. I'm going to get to 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.480 more on that in a minute. But Mattis is warning 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:31.160 becomes something bigger than just a military assessment, because militarily, 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:36.400 you know, it's both the military has had massive strategic 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:38.640 victory here and at the same time, there's only so 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:43.760 much the military can do. Mattis said one other thing 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:45.120 in his interview. He said, you know, we're in a 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:47.720 tough spot. Now. This goes back to being boxed in. 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:51.560 I can't identify a lot of options. This is coming 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:56.280 from Jem Mattis. This isn't coming from some left wing blogger, okay, 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.880 because that's the reality. There's no clear path forward here, 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:06.119 and it's clear they didn't think this through at the 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:13.399 White House. They really believed, or the President believed that 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.720 this was going to be just like Venezuelan and that 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:22.000 the incentive to survive would somehow. You know, he doesn't 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:27.679 seem to acknowledge that this regime has kept power for 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.600 forty seven years, which means there's a lot of people 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.280 that are devoted to this regime and they're not going 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:35.679 to go away quietly because their livelihood depends on the 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:41.920 regime staying in power. You would think Donald Trump would 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:45.560 understand when you have kind of that kind of loyalty, right, 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:47.760 It's the type of loyalty he tries. He wants people 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:49.680 loyal to him, not because they like him, loyal to 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.119 him because they need them. Well, that's the type of 0:17:52.160 --> 0:18:01.280 loyalty this regime is created. They're not going easily. 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I'm a big fan. 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:20.320 So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.359 Sold today, right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.160 percent off your entire order. Go to getsoul dot com 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:29.679 and use the word toodcast. That's getsold dot com promo 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:33.360 code podcast for thirty percent off. And yes, I too, 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:40.159 am a customer. And there's another reality that's hard to ignore. 0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:43.800 Airpower alan doesn't change regimes. History continues to show this 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:46.760 again and again. So even after weeks of strikes, even 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:50.520 after the damage to all these Iranian military targets, we're 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:54.399 still left in a position where we've demonstrated force and 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:59.000 we haven't secured the outcome, and are how are more 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:03.200 you know, more rats sort of fall on deaf ears 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.840 to those that have survived, just surviving, what more is 0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:12.280 there for us to destroy? And again this is asymmetric. 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:17.960 Just the regime surviving is victory for them. So we're stuck. 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:20.920 Neither side can force the other to change course, neither 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.840 side can claim a decisive when, And the longer that continues, 0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:27.679 the more this becomes about perception and who looks like 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:31.879 they held firm and who looks like they blinked, And 0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:37.240 let's just say Donald Trump is blinking lot. So this 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:39.960 isn't just about Iran. This has got second order effects 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:42.720 already in motion among the Iranian diaspora menary who hope 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.000 this would be a turning point. Now that hope fades 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:50.159 right among the Gulf States, the question becomes is the 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:54.479 United States still the security partner of choice? And if 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:58.200 the answer becomes even slightly uncertain, they don't walk away, 0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:01.399 but they're going to hedge. That's where China comes in. 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:05.840 There'll be regional arrangements, There'll be a lot of self preservation. 0:21:06.680 --> 0:21:11.159 Because alliances don't break overnight. They hollow out. And this 0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:15.080 is yet another uncomfortable part of this. We didn't just 0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:19.159 stumble into this moment. Donald Trump helped create this moment. 0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:21.720 Sometimes the hardest thing is to say in politics are 0:21:21.720 --> 0:21:25.119 the most obvious ones that because they're complicated, but because 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:29.120 they're so basic, you assume one doesn't need to even 0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:31.679 say it. It doesn't need to be said. But if you 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:35.120 hollow out expertise, you get worse decisions. If you surround 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:37.639 yourself with people who agree with you, you make more mistakes, 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.480 and if you alienate your allies, you end up alone 0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:43.639 when it matters. This is an advanced political science. This 0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:47.440 is organizational leadership one oh one. Yet here we are right. 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:50.359 How did he hollow out the expertise, He gutted the 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:55.680 National Security Council, He surrounded himself with a bunch of secofans. 0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:57.840 Right there is no gym Matis at the Defense at 0:21:57.840 --> 0:22:02.240 the Pentagon right now offering, say e questionable advice. There's 0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:08.119 Pete Hags who, let's just say, couldn't carry Jymnatis's jockstrap. 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:16.120 So you've got a Secretary state in theory that I 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:21.520 think is sort of reality based. But his political future 0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:25.760 hinges on whether Donald Trump thinks he's the heir apparent. 0:22:26.080 --> 0:22:30.000 So we know what kind of limited pushback. And notice 0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:33.680 when you get all of the the fact that JD. 0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:35.800 Vans and Telsea Gabbert have both used the same spin 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.080 while the President came to this conclusion, and Marco Ruby, 0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:40.159 while the President decided there was an imminent threat, and 0:22:40.280 --> 0:22:44.200 the President decided right by the way talk about CYA. 0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:47.560 None of them want to own this. They're making it 0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:51.119 clear this is a Donald Trump decision all the way through. 0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:56.600 They somehow think that they don't have it, that this 0:22:56.720 --> 0:23:00.000 is just sustain and not a tattoo. But we shall see. 0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:02.520 So here we are. He has spent the last year here. 0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:08.640 In a couple of months berating our allies, using tariffs 0:23:08.680 --> 0:23:11.840 to bludgeon our allies, and ad tacks, creating all sorts 0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:16.280 of uncomfortable alliances, making NATO, you know, threat with the 0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:19.720 threat on Greenland, shaking the confidence of our NATO allies. 0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:23.360 So that's how we spent twenty twenty five as a nation. 0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:27.720 And then he's boxed himself in and on this Iaran decision. 0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:30.359 Could use some allies to help us out with the 0:23:30.400 --> 0:23:32.320 straight of Oar moves, and they're all like, hey, good luck, brother, 0:23:33.200 --> 0:23:36.160 you're on your own now. You can sit here and complain. 0:23:36.320 --> 0:23:41.560 Where are our allies? Well, you alienated them. You made 0:23:41.560 --> 0:23:44.000 it a lot harder for them to stick by us, 0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:47.800 because sticking by the United States is suddenly politically unpopular 0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:50.800 in places like the UK, Germany, France and Italy let 0:23:50.800 --> 0:23:56.040 me repeat myself, or Japan. Can you believe that standing 0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:58.040 on the side of the United States is unpopular in 0:23:58.080 --> 0:24:05.919 those countries? That's a problem. Ironically, Donald Trump had in 0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:10.000 theory diverse voices in the room. He had a national 0:24:10.040 --> 0:24:12.240 security team that looked like it did represent a range 0:24:12.240 --> 0:24:16.760 of perspectives, from a dove like Tulsea Gabbert to a 0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:21.920 hawk like Marco Rubio. But here's the difference between theory 0:24:21.960 --> 0:24:24.200 and practice. No one appeared willing or able to tell 0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:27.200 the President something he didn't want to hear. General Kine 0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:30.160 came the closest, but he even did that through proxies, 0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:32.840