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Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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Speaker 1: by Incognate. You know, one of the things we talk

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Speaker 1: taking control of your personal data today. Trust me, I'm

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Speaker 1: constantly working on this for years myself, and here's an

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Speaker 1: opportunity for you to take matters into your own hands

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Speaker 1: as well. Hello thereon, Welcome to the Wednesday episode of

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Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. So on Monday, I left you with

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a cliffhanger, right, I said I

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Speaker 1: had a new announcement coming and involved sports history, and

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Speaker 1: of course the minute it loaded, it turned out my

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Speaker 1: friends at Variety were dropping their story on Monday, not Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and I was not trying to hide it from anybody.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was all hitting on Tuesday, so I

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Speaker 1: was trying to respect the embargoes that I'd done with

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Speaker 1: some coverage. But yes, I've teamed up with longtime sports

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Speaker 1: journalists Ja Donde. You may know Ja from his work

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Speaker 1: at the Washington Post or his work at the LA Times.

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Speaker 1: That's where I first got to know him and read them.

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Speaker 1: As a Dodger fan, I would consume anything Ja wrote

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Speaker 1: about the Dodgers, but would also follow his other work

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Speaker 1: as well, and then, of course, as part of the

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Speaker 1: hour long must see TV for the longest period of

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Speaker 1: time on ESPN when he had Around the Horn at

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Speaker 1: five pm Eastern and PTI at five thirty pm Eastern.

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Speaker 1: Around the Horn is no longer with us. Ja's been

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Speaker 1: He also is at the Medill's School and has been

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Speaker 1: doing that at Midill at Northwestern, teaching sports journalism for

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Speaker 1: I think it goes back to about twenty seventeen. So look,

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Speaker 1: we've teamed up to do recall it dynastic, and basically

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Speaker 1: what it is is every month Jay and I are

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Speaker 1: going to do a deep dive on a franchise, whether

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Speaker 1: it's a professional sports franchise or a college sports program

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Speaker 1: that is gone to another level. Right, there's sort of

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Speaker 1: there's that where they become iconic right, what makes a

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Speaker 1: team or a program go from simply successful to that

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Speaker 1: next level to become iconic? And we will make no bones.

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Speaker 1: We are absolutely inspired by our friends over at Acquired

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Speaker 1: what they've done for the business world, long form storytelling

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Speaker 1: about how the great institutions in the business world were built.

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Speaker 1: You know, they've done Google and JP Morgan Chase. They've

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Speaker 1: even dabbled and talked about the NFL and F one

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Speaker 1: Is businesses And honestly, we're you know, great ideas like

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Speaker 1: why not do this for sports? And we're applying the

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Speaker 1: same approach to sports franchises and programs. We want to

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Speaker 1: discuss the key people in the history of that franchise,

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Speaker 1: the decisions of turning points of forks on the road.

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Speaker 1: So our first episode dropped Tuesday. You may have gotten

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Speaker 1: it in the feed already, you may going, what the

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Speaker 1: hell is this? And our first franchise that we're doing

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Speaker 1: a deep dive is the Dodgers, the La Dodgers. It's

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Speaker 1: a franchise that has spent decades chasing the Yankees in

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Speaker 1: prestige in World Series Championships. Right, you know, in many

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Speaker 1: ways it was always that's the measuring stick. But along

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Speaker 1: the way in order to chase the Yankees, they ended

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Speaker 1: up becoming probably arguably the most innovative sports organization in

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Speaker 1: all of sports history, regardless of sport that you pick.

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Speaker 1: In order to catch the Yankees, they had to be

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Speaker 1: the innovators, and usually that's what happens, right. Necessity is

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Speaker 1: the mother of all invention, right. And of course the

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Speaker 1: story doesn't start there. The story begins in this little

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Speaker 1: borough before it even became a borough of New York City, Brooklyn,

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Speaker 1: New York. Eighteen eighty three is when the franchise was born.

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Speaker 1: Happened to be the same year that the Brooklyn Bridge opened,

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Speaker 1: and within six or seven years Brooklyn itself would become

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Speaker 1: part of New York City. But that's sort of how

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Speaker 1: we're going to go through this, and Jay and I

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Speaker 1: are both get involved with the research, and it really

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Speaker 1: is sort of are we're making the argument. That's sort

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Speaker 1: of like we're making the case why this franchise X

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Speaker 1: is iconic. So every month we're going to take a

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Speaker 1: deep dive into an iconic franchise. So this month it's

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers. It'll be from teams you love, in teams

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Speaker 1: you hate, and everyone in between. The curious those that

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Speaker 1: you're curious about. So the Dodgers this month, we're going

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Speaker 1: to tackle the Pittsburgh Steelers in April. They will be

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Speaker 1: the franchise that hosts the NFL Draft, so we thought

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Speaker 1: that would the timing of that will be good. We're

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Speaker 1: going to do these every month. In between each episode

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Speaker 1: sort of again borrowing a you know, we're not trying

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Speaker 1: to reinvent the wheel here, borrowing a page from our

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Speaker 1: friends that acquired We'll also have a have an episode

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Speaker 1: with somebody who can sort of talk about the franchise

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Speaker 1: in more personal terms. Look, we're doing this independently. We

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Speaker 1: have no patron for any time we do this. So

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Speaker 1: I think as much as we know there are plenty

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Speaker 1: of sports documentaries out there and episodic you know sort

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Speaker 1: of takes on you know, various individual players part of

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Speaker 1: a franchise, we are not taking our cues from anybody.

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Speaker 1: We are simply doing it. Really, I look at it

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Speaker 1: through the eyes of a of a want to be

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Speaker 1: a historian, Right, I'm a history junkie, and I think

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Speaker 1: what I love about Jaa and our partnership is that

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Speaker 1: he you know, he's not he's as interested in the

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Speaker 1: off the field stuff as he is in the on

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Speaker 1: the field stuff just like I am. And in that sense,

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Speaker 1: I think this is why this partnership is already working.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to think. So take a listen. It's a

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Speaker 1: couple takes more than it's more than two hours, right,

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Speaker 1: you can't you know you're telling the story. It takes

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Speaker 1: more than a thirty minute episode. But we don't expect

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Speaker 1: you to listen to it in one listening. We know

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Speaker 1: that you know it may be that's why we're going

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Speaker 1: to do one of these a month and not try

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Speaker 1: to make you consume this here. But it's a lot

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Speaker 1: of fun. It's a labor of love for me, and

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Speaker 1: it's just been amazing to get to know Ja and

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Speaker 1: to work with him. Special shout out to the sort

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Speaker 1: of the godfather of this idea, the third partner in

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Speaker 1: this my longtime friend and colleague Steve Hall as well.

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Speaker 1: So I hope you give it a chance. It's called Dynastics.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe today wherever you get to all your podcasts me on,

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Speaker 1: iHeart already it's being syndicated there. And look, each episode

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Speaker 1: we come up with a we're both Jay and I

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Speaker 1: have a mount rushmore of the four most iconic people

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Speaker 1: associated with that franchise Hard Stop. You know, I will

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Speaker 1: argue for more than you know, multiple amount rushmores that

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Speaker 1: we could come up with, but we decided to lean

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Speaker 1: into that gimmick. And we know it's a fun gimmick,

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Speaker 1: and yes it's a gimmick, but it to just narrow

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Speaker 1: it down to four creates fun little debates. So we'd

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Speaker 1: love to hear from you. Don't be shy about giving

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Speaker 1: us your opinion on this. Trust me, in the world

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Speaker 1: of sports. The only place where people are more opinionated

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Speaker 1: in the world of sports is of course, in the

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Speaker 1: world of politics. So I hope you'll check it out.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate the patients in this feed that I've added

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Speaker 1: to it. As for this episode, we got a lot

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Speaker 1: of a lot of interesting nuggets on all things having

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Speaker 1: to do aroun. I have a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: campaign twenty twenty six update, including a fascinating new top

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Speaker 1: five list, a unique take on my top five this week,

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Speaker 1: which is top five most likely state wide incumbents to

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Speaker 1: lose to not return to office, so slightly different it

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Speaker 1: would be either gov or sitting governors or sitting senators,

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Speaker 1: but the five most vulnerable of those. I thought it

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Speaker 1: would be a different way to slice that idea. Going forward,

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Speaker 1: We'll take some questions, but obviously, in the world of politics,

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Speaker 1: it is still we are still living in one story

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Speaker 1: that is going to continue and will continue to dominate,

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Speaker 1: and that is all things Iran. It is as as

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Speaker 1: has been foreshadowed on this podcast, and I've said in

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Speaker 1: other places, Donald Trump was not going to have a

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Speaker 1: lot of patience and he was going to look for

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Speaker 1: an exit ramp. And he is certainly trying to talk

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Speaker 1: talk his way into getting out of this war that

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Speaker 1: he got himself into. And it's clear he is struggling

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Speaker 1: with the political pain is causing because remember, as I

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Speaker 1: reminded you on Monday, the people feeling the immediate tax

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Speaker 1: hike from this war, and in this case, the tax

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Speaker 1: height is the rise in gas prices. It is more

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Speaker 1: folks who supported him, right, this is this gap. When

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Speaker 1: gas prices go up, it is folks in rural and

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Speaker 1: exurban America who are hit hardest. Well, that is geographically

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Speaker 1: the heart of the Trump political base. So this is

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Speaker 1: having a huge impact on his side politically, which is

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Speaker 1: why he knows and is so desperate to find his

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Speaker 1: way out, But what does victory actually look like. It's

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Speaker 1: a question that Donald Trump is trying to He's like,

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Speaker 1: if we can they pledged never to have a nuclear bomb,

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Speaker 1: which they had actually pledged to do before, or if

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Speaker 1: they get we destroyed their navy, he's saying, and we're

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Speaker 1: able to get them from doing a state sponsor of terrorism.

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Speaker 1: But and he's trying to say, and there's gonna be

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Speaker 1: new people in the regime, so it's kind of like

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Speaker 1: regime change. Yeah, but it's not regime change, right, And

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Speaker 1: that's the problem. He's trying to spitball how he would

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Speaker 1: sell victory in this, But this is the problem he's in,

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Speaker 1: is that there is no easy way out of here,

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Speaker 1: and there's not a good answer because there might not.

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Speaker 1: There's no victory he can declare in the next four

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Speaker 1: to six weeks. And at this point they kind of

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Speaker 1: know it. And it looks like he is desperate to

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Speaker 1: get out of this energy crisis that he's helped create.

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Speaker 1: So we've arrived at one of those moments in American

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Speaker 1: form policy where every path forward carries risks. And this

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Speaker 1: is I've said up before, he boxed himself in. He

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Speaker 1: boxed the country in You know, no matter your political persuasions,

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Speaker 1: your political feelings about Donald Trump, America's prestige is on

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Speaker 1: the line here and that's a huge problem. So what

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Speaker 1: are the options that are facing it. It's clear that militarily,

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Speaker 1: he's being given the option to escalate. Right, we continue

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Speaker 1: to send more troops who look like they would be

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Speaker 1: the first troops on the boots on the ground for

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Speaker 1: some sort of ground incursion. Maybe it's just simply to

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Speaker 1: keep this straight of horn moves open. But the type

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Speaker 1: of resources we're sending over there now is in case

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Speaker 1: the President makes the decision and gives the green light

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Speaker 1: to putting actual American troops on the ground in Iran.

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Speaker 1: But of course that's an escalation. And if you do that,

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Speaker 1: that risks a wider regional war and more energy shocks

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Speaker 1: and a long term commitment with no clear endgame. If

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Speaker 1: you're doing what he's doing now, he's trying to hurry

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Speaker 1: up and de escalate, okay, but he risks something that's

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Speaker 1: potentially just as dangerous, handing Iran a strategic victory without

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Speaker 1: ever formally admitting it. Right, the Jemes survived who won this?

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Speaker 1: For Yes, we've absolutely eviscerated their military, and we've certainly

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Speaker 1: degraded their ability to cause problems for the United States.

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Speaker 1: What about for the region itself? And any circumstance that

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Speaker 1: he's negotiating at the moment continues to keep. And this

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Speaker 1: is where geography is Iran's best weapon. Here they're going

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Speaker 1: to have a large say over who gets to travel

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Speaker 1: through the Straight of Hormones. So former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis,

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Speaker 1: who was the Defense secretary for Donald Trump in his

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Speaker 1: first term, and he's no Iran dove, trust me on this,

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Speaker 1: but he put it as bluntly as anyone has. Earlier

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Speaker 1: this week, he said, the United States declares victory and

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Speaker 1: steps back. Now, Iran will effectively claim control of the

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Speaker 1: Strait of Horn moves. And we know what that means.

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Speaker 1: It means that any moment in time they can essentially

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Speaker 1: create an energy problem for the United States and the world,

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Speaker 1: but it's a political problem for the US and is

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Speaker 1: you know, he had his own warning here was even

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Speaker 1: more vivid because he expects that under any scenario, they're

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Speaker 1: going to start to charge basically charging attacks on global

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Speaker 1: shipping to go through the Strait of ormentors because if

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Speaker 1: you were then, you know, Israel wants regime change. How

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Speaker 1: do you know that they've set it? Prime Minister that

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Speaker 1: now who's said it? So they're not going to feel secure.

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Speaker 1: Is the United States is going to guarantee that the

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Speaker 1: US would somehow prevent Israel from attacking them? Again? Are

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Speaker 1: we going to do that? Is Israel going to sign

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Speaker 1: off on that? I'm skeptical. So here we are, we're

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Speaker 1: going to be in a situation where the Iranians will

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Speaker 1: control the strait, this regime will control the straight. I mean,

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Speaker 1: still roughly twenty percent of the world's oil passes through

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Speaker 1: this narrow passage, and that continues to give the Arminians

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Speaker 1: leverage over the global economy. So it's hard to imagine that.

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Speaker 1: First of all, they didn't have this much. You know,

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Speaker 1: they arguably always kind of had this leverage if they

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Speaker 1: chose to use it, but there was an uneasy piece

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Speaker 1: that was there. But now by engaging in this, they

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Speaker 1: know and what is their incentive not to continue to

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Speaker 1: cause disruptions because they know their days are numbered if

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Speaker 1: they just sort of stand pat So it's hard to

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Speaker 1: it's hard to see how we get an uneasy cease

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Speaker 1: fire here that somehow is attainable in sticks. I hope

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Speaker 1: I'm wrong. I don't think any of us want to

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Speaker 1: see a war that escalates where we have American young

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Speaker 1: American men and women coming home in body bags fighting

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Speaker 1: a war of choice. Yes, aron's a menace, but it

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Speaker 1: would be a war of choice. Is this the time

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Speaker 1: to have this war? I think we know what the

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Speaker 1: answer to that is, and certainly President Trump has created

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Speaker 1: a situation with our allies that makes it where we're

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Speaker 1: going in alone on this. I'm going to get to

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Speaker 1: more on that in a minute. But Mattis is warning

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Speaker 1: becomes something bigger than just a military assessment, because militarily,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's both the military has had massive strategic

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Speaker 1: victory here and at the same time, there's only so

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Speaker 1: much the military can do. Mattis said one other thing

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Speaker 1: in his interview. He said, you know, we're in a

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Speaker 1: tough spot. Now. This goes back to being boxed in.

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Speaker 1: I can't identify a lot of options. This is coming

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Speaker 1: from Jem Mattis. This isn't coming from some left wing blogger, okay,

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Speaker 1: because that's the reality. There's no clear path forward here,

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Speaker 1: and it's clear they didn't think this through at the

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Speaker 1: White House. They really believed, or the President believed that

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Speaker 1: this was going to be just like Venezuelan and that

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Speaker 1: the incentive to survive would somehow. You know, he doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem to acknowledge that this regime has kept power for

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Speaker 1: forty seven years, which means there's a lot of people

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Speaker 1: that are devoted to this regime and they're not going

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Speaker 1: to go away quietly because their livelihood depends on the

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Speaker 1: regime staying in power. You would think Donald Trump would

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Speaker 1: understand when you have kind of that kind of loyalty, right,

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Speaker 1: It's the type of loyalty he tries. He wants people

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Speaker 1: loyal to him, not because they like him, loyal to

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Speaker 1: him because they need them. Well, that's the type of

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Speaker 1: loyalty this regime is created. They're not going easily. This

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Speaker 1: am a customer. And there's another reality that's hard to ignore.

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Speaker 1: Airpower alan doesn't change regimes. History continues to show this

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Speaker 1: again and again. So even after weeks of strikes, even

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Speaker 1: after the damage to all these Iranian military targets, we're

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Speaker 1: still left in a position where we've demonstrated force and

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Speaker 1: we haven't secured the outcome, and are how are more

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Speaker 1: you know, more rats sort of fall on deaf ears

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Speaker 1: to those that have survived, just surviving, what more is

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Speaker 1: there for us to destroy? And again this is asymmetric.

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Speaker 1: Just the regime surviving is victory for them. So we're stuck.

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Speaker 1: Neither side can force the other to change course, neither

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Speaker 1: side can claim a decisive when, And the longer that continues,

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Speaker 1: the more this becomes about perception and who looks like

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Speaker 1: they held firm and who looks like they blinked, And

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Speaker 1: let's just say Donald Trump is blinking lot. So this

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Speaker 1: isn't just about Iran. This has got second order effects

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Speaker 1: already in motion among the Iranian diaspora menary who hope

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Speaker 1: this would be a turning point. Now that hope fades

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Speaker 1: right among the Gulf States, the question becomes is the

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Speaker 1: United States still the security partner of choice? And if

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Speaker 1: the answer becomes even slightly uncertain, they don't walk away,

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Speaker 1: but they're going to hedge. That's where China comes in.

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Speaker 1: There'll be regional arrangements, There'll be a lot of self preservation.

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Speaker 1: Because alliances don't break overnight. They hollow out. And this

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Speaker 1: is yet another uncomfortable part of this. We didn't just

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Speaker 1: stumble into this moment. Donald Trump helped create this moment.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes the hardest thing is to say in politics are

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Speaker 1: the most obvious ones that because they're complicated, but because

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Speaker 1: they're so basic, you assume one doesn't need to even

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Speaker 1: say it. It doesn't need to be said. But if you

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Speaker 1: hollow out expertise, you get worse decisions. If you surround

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Speaker 1: yourself with people who agree with you, you make more mistakes,

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Speaker 1: and if you alienate your allies, you end up alone

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Speaker 1: when it matters. This is an advanced political science. This

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Speaker 1: is organizational leadership one oh one. Yet here we are right.

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Speaker 1: How did he hollow out the expertise, He gutted the

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Speaker 1: National Security Council, He surrounded himself with a bunch of secofans.

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Speaker 1: Right there is no gym Matis at the Defense at

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Speaker 1: the Pentagon right now offering, say e questionable advice. There's

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Speaker 1: Pete Hags who, let's just say, couldn't carry Jymnatis's jockstrap.

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Speaker 1: So you've got a Secretary state in theory that I

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Speaker 1: think is sort of reality based. But his political future

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Speaker 1: hinges on whether Donald Trump thinks he's the heir apparent.

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Speaker 1: So we know what kind of limited pushback. And notice

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Speaker 1: when you get all of the the fact that JD.

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Speaker 1: Vans and Telsea Gabbert have both used the same spin

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Speaker 1: while the President came to this conclusion, and Marco Ruby,

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Speaker 1: while the President decided there was an imminent threat, and

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Speaker 1: the President decided right by the way talk about CYA.

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Speaker 1: None of them want to own this. They're making it

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Speaker 1: clear this is a Donald Trump decision all the way through.

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Speaker 1: They somehow think that they don't have it, that this

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Speaker 1: is just sustain and not a tattoo. But we shall see.

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Speaker 1: So here we are. He has spent the last year here.

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Speaker 1: In a couple of months berating our allies, using tariffs

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Speaker 1: to bludgeon our allies, and ad tacks, creating all sorts

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Speaker 1: of uncomfortable alliances, making NATO, you know, threat with the

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Speaker 1: threat on Greenland, shaking the confidence of our NATO allies.

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Speaker 1: So that's how we spent twenty twenty five as a nation.

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Speaker 1: And then he's boxed himself in and on this Iaran decision.

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Speaker 1: Could use some allies to help us out with the

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Speaker 1: straight of Oar moves, and they're all like, hey, good luck, brother,

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Speaker 1: you're on your own now. You can sit here and complain.

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Speaker 1: Where are our allies? Well, you alienated them. You made

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Speaker 1: it a lot harder for them to stick by us,

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Speaker 1: because sticking by the United States is suddenly politically unpopular

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Speaker 1: in places like the UK, Germany, France and Italy let

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Speaker 1: me repeat myself, or Japan. Can you believe that standing

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Speaker 1: on the side of the United States is unpopular in

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Speaker 1: those countries? That's a problem. Ironically, Donald Trump had in

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Speaker 1: theory diverse voices in the room. He had a national

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Speaker 1: security team that looked like it did represent a range

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Speaker 1: of perspectives, from a dove like Tulsea Gabbert to a

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Speaker 1: hawk like Marco Rubio. But here's the difference between theory

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Speaker 1: and practice. No one appeared willing or able to tell

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Speaker 1: the President something he didn't want to hear. General Kine

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Speaker 1: came the closest, but he even did that through proxies,

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Speaker 1: right through interviews with the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post,

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Speaker 1: New York Times. And that distinction matters a lot here

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Speaker 1: because dissent isn't about having different resumes in the room.

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Speaker 1: It's about whether anyone feels empowered to challenge the decision

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Speaker 1: that's already been made. And if they don't, then what

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Speaker 1: you have is in a debate, it's a performance. And

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Speaker 1: we spent all this time beating up our testing all

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Speaker 1: of our alliances. We treated them as transactional people, even

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Speaker 1: publicly lecturing them. The Vice President lectured Europe about the

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Speaker 1: their internal values. When I thought the whole point was

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Speaker 1: real politique. You do you, we do we? And it

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Speaker 1: raised a simple question, if you knew you might be

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Speaker 1: heading into a conflict that could disrupt global energy markets,

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Speaker 1: would you spend the previous year making it politically harder

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Speaker 1: for your allies to stand with you, or would you

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Speaker 1: be strengthening those relationships. Because what we're seeing right now

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Speaker 1: isn't a collapse of alliances. It's something more subtle. It's hesitation,

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Speaker 1: it's hedging. It's a quieter kind of distance. They're not

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Speaker 1: saying they won't help, but like, wrap up this war

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Speaker 1: and then we'll see what we can do. And then

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Speaker 1: this is where it all connects. When you narrow the

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Speaker 1: circle of advice, when you prioritize loyalty over challenge, when

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Speaker 1: you weaken alliances, you don't just change the environment around

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Speaker 1: a decision, you actually change the decision itself. The risks

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Speaker 1: look smaller they weren't. The timeline looks shorter, it wasn't.

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Speaker 1: The outcome feels more manageable. Well, this hain't been as well. Now.

427
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: It's interesting here is that polling is showing this war

428
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: is unpopular, Okay, not surprising, and that's a huge issue

429
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: for him, and I think he's very aware. I mean,

430
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: that's the problem here, right. He knee jerked his way

431
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: into this, and now he's going to knee jerk his

432
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 1: way out of this. And it ain't going to be

433
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: that clean. I know he thinks it could be, and

434
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: he has you know, rolled the dice before on Middle

435
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 1: East decisions, and he's not and it hasn't hurt him

436
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: yet until now, and I think he still thinks in

437
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 1: his head that if they can somehow wrap this up,

438
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 1: he can declare some sort of victory and somehow the

439
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 1: markets will write themselves sooner rather than later. There's no

440
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: doubt this global economy and the American economy has been resilient.

441
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: But at some point it ain't going to be this resilient,

442
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: and more importantly, everybody's going to start hedging all over

443
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: the place. What's been interesting is what we're watching among

444
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 1: independence in the polling. They don't like Democrats, they don't

445
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: like Republicans, but they particularly don't like Donald Trump and Mega.

446
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: So that is why independents look like they're supporting Democrats,

447
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,959
Speaker 1: because what they're voting against is Trump and MAGA is Trump.

448
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 1: Trump is Mega support among independences that sit in the

449
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 1: low twenties. That is a huge problem here. Wherever independence

450
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: go in Chunk is usually when that party wins. Something

451
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: else that's popped up in the polls that I kind

452
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: of want people to pay attention to. Marquette is out,

453
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: and what's interesting is that they did fave on favor

454
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: ratings for Democratic Party, Republican Party and then MEGA believe

455
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 1: it or not, the Republican Party are the best ratings

456
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: of those three entities. Democratic Party they had the lowest

457
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 1: rating of those three entities. But MAGA was looked closer

458
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: to being as unpopular as the Democrats were, and certainly

459
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: more unpopular than Republicans. And now there's always been a

460
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 1: distinction between those that call themselves Republicans and those that

461
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: call themselves MAGA, and of course anything MAGA is always

462
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: more loyal to the President on everything like this. Around war,

463
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,879
Speaker 1: we've seen some polling showed like ninety nine percent support

464
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 1: among MEGA voters, but among those that consider themselves more

465
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: Republican than MEGA, it's been like fifty five to forty.

466
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's not been a clean break, you see.

467
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 1: And I know, I know MEGA influencers are more anti

468
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: war than the rank and file of MEGA, right, but

469
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: it tells you how bad the MEGA brand has become.

470
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 1: Where the Republican brand is in better shape with voters

471
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: than the MAGA brand. If you're a Republican on the ballot,

472
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: you should be relieved that this is true. I think

473
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: the great fear among some Republicans is that Trump and

474
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 1: MAGA was going to drag. The republic can brand with it.

475
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: If you've got voters willing to distinguish between the two,

476
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: this should be the time to go rush and grab it.

477
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: Except guess what this Republican Party and Jerryman. It's made

478
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: primaries so important that Republicans can't distance themselves fast enough

479
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: from Trump because if they do, they won't win primaries.

480
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: This is the trap that John cornyns, right, So it's

481
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: a it's it's it's interesting here none of this is

482
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: yet benefiting the Democrats brand, even as it benefits them

483
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: in binary choices when you do those head to head tests.

484
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: But the fact that this is really and in some

485
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: ways you know, this Iran war could be the death

486
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: knell for the MEGA brand, right because even though the

487
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: influencers want the MAGA brand to be something else, as

488
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has always said, Mega is whatever he says

489
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: it is. And it turns out the voters are look

490
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: at MAGA through the prism of Trump, and maga's numbers

491
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: are as bad as Trump's numbers. But the fact that

492
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: the Republican Party's numbers are actually slightly better than MAGA

493
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: and Trump in theories an opportunity for the Republican Party

494
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: to find its way away out of the wilderness, away

495
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 1: from Trump, if they so choose. What that really tells

496
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: you is that independent voters, because that's where these numbers

497
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: are coming from. Independence, have a better view of Republicans

498
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: in general, the Republican Party when it's not associated with

499
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. I'll be curious to see what that means

500
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight and does the unpopularity of Trump's

501
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: on pot you know, if this isn't recoverable, and there

502
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: are always points and second terms where once it's gone,

503
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 1: it's gone. He's bounced back a few other times, there's

504
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: going to be a point he stops bouncing back. This

505
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: might be the time he stops bound back, which means

506
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: there's an opening. And what's interesting, there's one there's one

507
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: person I'm keeping an eye on, closest when it comes

508
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 1: to somebody who would run as a sort of a

509
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: non maga but maybe mega call it, you know, not

510
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: anti this, and it's Brian Kemp in Georgia. And guess

511
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: what state is the only state so far to do

512
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: a gas tax holiday. Brian camp in Georgia. Feels like

513
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: an easy way for Brian Kemp presidential candidate to distinguish

514
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: himself from a JD. Vance or Marco Rubio in the primary.

515
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: So not lost on me that Camp you know, already

516
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: has that feather in his twenty twenty eight cap should

517
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: he need it, and you're starting to see polling conformed

518
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: to that. Look, this is just early days of this,

519
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: but I think this is going to be worth keeping

520
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: tracking a which is, how can does the Republican brand

521
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: start improving in the mind of some independent voters simply

522
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 1: because Trump and MAGA have become so dominant, and what

523
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: Republican office holders find a way? Hear that? All right?

524
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: With that, I had a few more political items I

525
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: want to get to. I think I'm gonna punt. We're

526
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: going to do that. We'll do that with tomorrow's episode,

527
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: including this bizarre sort of Chuck Schumer sort of attempt

528
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: to sort of quell the There is clearly a growing

529
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: band of senator Democratic senators that want Schimmer to go.

530
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 1: He did a crazy interview with the Wall Street Journal

531
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: where I think he sort of exposed himself as either

532
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: being a bit out of touch or not fully on

533
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: top of what is happening here, and at the same

534
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: same time, you know, one can understand what he's tried

535
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: to do, and so if Chuck Schumer doesn't want progress

536
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: to look like Progressives have defeated him, he may want

537
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: to go out on his terms rather than test the

538
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: premise whether he could survive a vote himself come December,

539
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: should Democrats end up with the majority of the Senate.

540
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna get more than that tomorrow. Will do

541
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: a little bit more on the democratic side of things.

542
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: But considering where we are at the run, it is,

543
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 1: as I've said before, there is only one story impacting

544
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: American politics until until it is no longer front and center,

545
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: it's going to be hard to focus on anything else.

546
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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Speaker 1: so use that code. Top five top top jest top

578
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 1: all right, this week I got a unique take on

579
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: the top five list. I've been giving you my top

580
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: five most you send it, seats most likely to flip,

581
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: your top five governor seats most likely to flip. I've

582
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: done some historical top five lists, and I'm going to

583
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: keep that going. But I thought i'd do a slightly

584
00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 1: different take on on something, because which is the top

585
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: five right now? My top five most vulnerable state wide

586
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 1: incumbents Because in some cases, you know, like the case

587
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,879
Speaker 1: in Louisiana or Rhode Island, where there's a state wide

588
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: incumbent who's going to lose, but they're the same party

589
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 1: is going to end up with the seats, so they

590
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 1: don't doesn't make my top five most likely to flip, right,

591
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: whether it's in the senate races with Louisiana or the

592
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 1: governor's races with Rhode Island. So that's why I thought

593
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 1: we do a little bit of a take on that,

594
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: and I wanted to give you right now, who I

595
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: think are the five most vulnerable state wide office holders

596
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: who are more at this point, four of the five

597
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 1: are more likely to lose than win given the situation

598
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 1: that they're currently in literally for them underwater. One arguably

599
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: has still got a slight advantage here and it is

600
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: in my fifth slot. So number one on the list

601
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: of most vulnerable incumbent is John Cornet, right, He's already

602
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 1: been forced into a run on off. We will find

603
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: out after Memorial Day whether that'll happen. A new pole

604
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: came out a couple of days ago showed him down eight.

605
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: He's sort of the forty one percent, you know, he

606
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 1: basically the number he got in the primaries, the number

607
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,760
Speaker 1: he's sitting on the runoff. Paxston looks like he's got

608
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: the you know, the more likely. You know, this runoff

609
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: is going to probably be lower turnout, and that is

610
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: likely to advantage Paxton on this front. Trump is clearly

611
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: not decided whether to endorse. I think in some ways

612
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 1: he was probably he doesn't like being smoked out and

613
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: the corn and people were trying corning in Thune. We're

614
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: trying so hard to corner him into an endorsement within

615
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 1: that first forty eight hours after the Texas primary, and

616
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 1: when it didn't happen, then they knew others were going

617
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 1: to get to him. And that's exactly what's happened. Others

618
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 1: have gotten to Trump. So I think we're at the

619
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: point now where I don't know if he gets if

620
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 1: he gets comfortable endorsing, I just don't buy it. Not

621
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 1: if poles continue to show corn And losing, and he

622
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 1: does not like tobacco loser. You know he does not.

623
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 1: He will back somebody trailing in the polls if it's

624
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: early in a primary and he thinks and he knows

625
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: that it will flip. He doesn't like doing it late

626
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: because he does it want to. He hates being with

627
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 1: the losing candidate. And if he can't be convinced that

628
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: Corny could win, I don't think that solo endorsement is coming.

629
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 1: So Cornn's in the one slot. In the number two

630
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 1: slot is somebody that I haven't been mentioning. But it's

631
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 1: like not even a close call. Dan McKee, who's the

632
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 1: current governor of Rhode Island. He ended up replacing Gina

633
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 1: Romundo and as governor back in twenty twenty two. He

634
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:45,240
Speaker 1: has just been in a hole for it feels like months.

635
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: I mean, he's got a job approval rating that at

636
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 1: times has been in the twenties. There was a primary

637
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 1: University of New Hampshire poll that had him at eighteen percent.

638
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 1: He's likely his main rival is actually the niece of

639
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: Chris Dodd for those of you keeping score at home,

640
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: Helena Folks. He's a former executive from CVS the pharmacy,

641
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: which is headquartered in Rhode Island, so they have that

642
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: is that is not a net negative being a former

643
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: CVS executive. Being a former CVS executive is mostly a

644
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: net positive there. And look there's the you know Rhode Island,

645
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 1: it's a very strong democratic state in general, so the

646
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 1: primary is where all the action is. And you see

647
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: these labor and business divides, like all the normal divides

648
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: you normally see in a general election in Rhode Island

649
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 1: always takes place in the primary, kind of like what

650
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 1: we saw in Illinois, right where interest groups know that

651
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 1: there's only what it's a one party state, so you

652
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 1: start to see that, Well, Dan McKee is just it.

653
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 1: I you know, it's unusual for a governor to lose primary,

654
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 1: but it happens. It is happened. Frank Murkowski, Lisa Murkowski's father,

655
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 1: basically over appointing his daughter of the Senate seat, among

656
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: other things, lost to primary back in twenty Back in

657
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: twenty oh six, this woman named Sarah Palin ended up

658
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 1: primary in him and she became She became governor and

659
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: I think kind of made a name for herself there

660
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: for a few years. But this is why I wanted

661
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: to do this top five lists. I haven't been able

662
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 1: to get this on the table. So Dan McKee number two.

663
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 1: It is hard to see a path. You could make

664
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 1: an argument that McKee should be in the one slot

665
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 1: most likely to lose, Cornyn in the two. The only

666
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 1: reason I'm putting corn in first is he's already been

667
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: through round one of a primary and now the runoff.

668
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: I mean it is sitting out there in theory mcke's

669
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 1: that primary is not un till September, and so he's

670
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: in theory got five more months to fix himself. So

671
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: just because he's got more time, he's number two. Corning's

672
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: number one. In my third slot is Bill Cassidy, another

673
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: one who's more likely to lose in a primary than

674
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 1: in general. He appears slightly more competitive in a multi

675
00:40:54,600 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 1: candidate primary as Julia Letlow, who is basically the unofficial

676
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 1: official endorsed challenger of Cassidy in some form. Right, these

677
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: are the getting let Low in. This is where Trump

678
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 1: wants to be. It's likely who he's gonna end up supporting.

679
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: We'll see how heavily he comes in. But there are

680
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: multiple candidates in the race, and the more crowded this

681
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 1: primary is, in theory, the better for Cassidy. But it

682
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:21,879
Speaker 1: would end up in a runoff as well. I mean,

683
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: they remember the state of Louisiana changed its rules basically

684
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 1: just so that Bill Cassidy could be primary because of

685
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: his impeachment vote pure and simple, right, Louisiana used to

686
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: be a jungle primary state, all parties on one ballot.

687
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 1: If nobody gets fifty, top two face off. Well, the

688
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: fear this would have been Cassidy's opportunity, he would have.

689
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: Cassidy would be winning reelection under the ole the rules

690
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 1: of Louisiana's election system that they had the first time

691
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: he ran. I promise you there is, and he would

692
00:41:55,320 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: probably be running a different race. Now maybe there isn't

693
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: you know, Maybe he's somehow done. He has figured out

694
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 1: how to alienate the left over with his playing footsie

695
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 1: with RFK Junior and the right by it voting to

696
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 1: convict Donald Trump. And maybe there's no coming back from that,

697
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 1: and because of that squeeze, there really isn't There isn't

698
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 1: you know, he's so alienated both that nobody wants to

699
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: see him succeed either way. He's easily number three on

700
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 1: the list, but he he's not dead yet. And I

701
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 1: just think that that is you know, I it is

702
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 1: you know, I keep waiting. You know, I just don't

703
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: know if he ends up benefiting when Bobby Kennedy messes up,

704
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, even though he's

705
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: been a critic now of what Kennedy's doing, he's still

706
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 1: the guy that got Kennedy into that job. And we

707
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 1: kind of and I think we all know why he

708
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 1: did it. He thought this is if he thought, this

709
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 1: is what it would take to get Trump's endorsement. And

710
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 1: we know what the Trump White House did, well, they said, well,

711
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 1: certainly it will help. He was never going to he

712
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 1: was never going to flip. He was never going to

713
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 1: do it. That's something I don't know why Cassidy misread

714
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 1: that situation Number four on the list, Susan Collins. She

715
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: trails both Mills and Platner and polling and I've seen

716
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: she is now benefiting that Mills and Platner are going

717
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 1: after each other. Mills is up with another attack ad

718
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,879
Speaker 1: on Platner. And we're going to find out, right, how

719
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 1: much do voters in Maine care about this stuff? You know,

720
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: how powerful is the Donald Trump effect on Democratic primary voters?

721
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: We already know that Republican primary voters that the you know,

722
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 1: the personal character issues just are not what they used

723
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:47,359
Speaker 1: to be, not at all. Right, Donald Trump is is

724
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: sort of you know, is sort of almost like pardoned

725
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 1: anybody running for office on the Republican side on character.

726
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,280
Speaker 1: And there's clear a lot of Democrats think, hey, they

727
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 1: they shouldn't be as picky either. I think this is generational.

728
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,800
Speaker 1: I think those that have grown up mostly living online

729
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: know that a lot of dumb stuff gets said. So

730
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be a younger voter is

731
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 1: going to be more forgiving for what Platner did, and

732
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 1: an older voter is going to be less forgiving. Right,

733
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 1: And in Maine, Maine is the oldest state, oldest electorate

734
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 1: in the country, the single oldest electorate in the country.

735
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: So I do think we underrate Mills's chance to get

736
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 1: to win this primary this way and death by a

737
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 1: thousand cuts then I think, you know, I know, the

738
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 1: energy feels like it's with Platner. What don't underestimate sort

739
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 1: of the main electorate, which is again not a young electorate.

740
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 1: Just something to think about there. As for Susan Collins,

741
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: I think she's you know, I think she's in. I

742
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 1: don't see a way out of this for her because

743
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 1: independence have turned on her and I don't know if

744
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 1: there's going to be any moment where she can show

745
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 1: her independence again. And if anything, it's you know, she's

746
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: had those opportunities and she's chosen partisanship over independence. Right.

747
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 1: If you think about Lisa Murkowski's is and Collins, who

748
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: both essentially have a similar electorate, you know, cranky independence,

749
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 1: that's the Alaska that's the Alaska voter arguably, and that's

750
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 1: the main voter. Collins tries to always find herself on

751
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 1: the side of Republicans. Murkowski always seems more likely to

752
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: find her side herself on the side of not being

753
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: there with the Republicans. Being more independent or sometimes voting

754
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 1: against them. And I think Murkowski's displayed independence more credibly

755
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 1: than Collins has. And that's why I think this time

756
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 1: it's hard. So when I say the first four on

757
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 1: my list are all underwater, all trailing at the moment,

758
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,879
Speaker 1: Corny and McKay, Cassidy, Collins, that is true. Number five

759
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 1: on the list is somebody who's not trailing. And I

760
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: have to say, here are the people I had to

761
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: choose from who I think are all vulnerable incumbents at

762
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 1: the moment. You have the governor of Nevada, Joe Lombardo,

763
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 1: being a Republican and a dem leaning state. You know,

764
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: he knocked off a one term incumbent. He's going to

765
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 1: be facing a wealth on the challenger. Nevada is as

766
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,479
Speaker 1: swinging of a state as there is. I think he's

767
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 1: holding up as well as you could under the circumstances,

768
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 1: but he is the wind is decidedly blowing against him.

769
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 1: And the Governor Arizona in this case, I think she's

770
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: got the wind at her back a little bit Katie Hobbs,

771
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: but and she you know, if Andy Biggs is the nominee,

772
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 1: I think she's in better shape than if Schwikert, David

773
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 1: Schwikert is the nominee there, so there, that's a nominee

774
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 1: for the fifth slot. See Katie Hobbs, Joe Lombardo, Dan

775
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 1: Sulivon Alaska, John Ossoff and Georgia and Pete Ricketts. And

776
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 1: I have to tell you right now, at the moment,

777
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 1: I think that the incumbent and that right now is

778
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: in the toughest shape. Who has who has the most

779
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 1: well formed challenger is Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Look, he's

780
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: still favorite, It's still Nebraska. But man, it is fascinating

781
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 1: to watch how well how resilient Osborne is. He's already

782
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 1: taken a bunch of incoming claiming he's a Democrat in

783
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 1: independent clothing, and it hasn't really budged his numbers. So,

784
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: you know, while I'm still you know, let's see he

785
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: can get to fifty. I think the path to forty

786
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: seven is pretty clear for him, somewhere between forty five

787
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 1: and forty seven. But can he get to fifty? But

788
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 1: right now, right now, I think Ricketts more so than Slomon,

789
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: more so than John Houston in Ohio, another candidate for

790
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 1: my incumbent list here, And you could make a strong case,

791
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 1: although I'd argue John Houston's an appointed so he doesn't

792
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 1: count as a real incumbent in that front. So my

793
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: fifth slote a little bit of a Husker surprise, just

794
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 1: like they've been to me. I know they're a four seed,

795
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 1: but I still think of Nebraska basketball as a bit

796
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 1: of a dark horse here, which translation means I'm probably

797
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: betting on Iowa. But there you go. There's the top

798
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 1: five most vulnerable statewide incumbents in the country. John Cornett,

799
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 1: Dan McKee, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, and Pete Rippons. We'll

800
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: update the list again next month. Ass chuck. All right,

801
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: let's do a little last chuck. Cue the music. Hey,

802
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: this has been from Colorado. I saw recently that John

803
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,920
Speaker 1: Hickenlooper dropped out of the caucus assembly process because he

804
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: was not getting the support that he needed to show

805
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 1: up on the primary ballot. I also saw some pulling

806
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 1: that he is trailing fairly significant the primary right now

807
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: to his challenger, Julie Gonzalez. If he loses, he would

808
00:48:58,120 --> 00:48:59,800
Speaker 1: be the third single term Senator in a row in

809
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: the last two Senate seat from Colorado. How about that,

810
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 1: I guess You're right that has been the case. Have

811
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 1: there been other cases where this has happened in the Senate? Thanks? Ben? Actually, yes, Ben,

812
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: here's your answer, because it is the So I guess

813
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 1: it would say I love that you identified it as

814
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 1: Class two. This would be the Class three seat in

815
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Okay, So let me give you this this

816
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 1: run of one term senators. So you had Robert Morgan

817
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: elected in seventy four, lost reelection in eighty John East

818
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 1: elected in eighty he ends up dying, it's vacant. There's

819
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 1: an appointment Jim Broyhill. Then you have in eighty six

820
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: Terry Sandford is a Democrat, is elected, He's a one termer.

821
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: Locke Faircloth is elected in ninety two, defeats him, defeats

822
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,360
Speaker 1: Terry Stanford, he's a one termer. He loses to John Edwards.

823
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 1: John Edwards decides not to see reelection. And then that's

824
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,280
Speaker 1: when Richard Berwin's that seat in two thousand and four.

825
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: And that was two terms. So here we you have

826
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 1: Edward's one term, Faircloth one term, Sanford one term. So

827
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 1: there's your three in a row. Really, you could argue

828
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: four in a row because East got one term Morgan

829
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:20,759
Speaker 1: five in a row, so basically after sam Irvin, right,

830
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 1: sam Irvin resigns early in his seat. After sam Irvin,

831
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:29,319
Speaker 1: the most famous you know, and you know doing the

832
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 1: Watergate hearings, that North Carolina Class three seat had five

833
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 1: straight one term senators. Some of them lost reelections, some

834
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 1: of them chose not to run, one died, So you

835
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: had a death presidential candidacy and incumbents losing twice. What

836
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 1: a fun question. But like I said, I'm sure there

837
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: are more than that. But if I found a five

838
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: spot for you, I think and look, you know, for

839
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: folks may not realize, Colorado has got an interesting little

840
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 1: system you can if you go through the cock you

841
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: can go through the essentially the state convention process, and

842
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,399
Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into the details here, where

843
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 1: you can qualify for a primary for the primary ballot

844
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 1: without having to do petition signatures. You can just get

845
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 1: it and you can try to get the endorsement. But

846
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 1: the obviously, the party apparatus these days are dominated by

847
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 1: the by the base voters, right base progressives with Democrats

848
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: based mago for Republicans. So if you're sort of a

849
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 1: center left or a center right politician, You're not going

850
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,879
Speaker 1: to be able to win an endorsement from your state

851
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 1: conventions these days, no matter where you are, particularly in

852
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 1: a place like Colorado. So I understand why he's going

853
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: to try to go in primary his way. Here, my

854
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:47,920
Speaker 1: guess is, once he starts spending money, he's going to

855
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 1: be quote unquote okay, especially because you'll you should expect

856
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:55,399
Speaker 1: to see a very large primary turnout. There's an open

857
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 1: seat for Governor Michael Bennett, the other senator from the

858
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: state is the sitting Attorney general or running against each

859
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:05,240
Speaker 1: other in the primary, So there should be a large turnout,

860
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: and I imagine Hickenloopers should be okay in a large turnout.

861
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 1: I don't know what the fireable offense is, and if

862
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 1: the fireable offense is he's not progressive enough. I don't

863
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 1: know if there's enough enough voters to knock him off.

864
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 1: But we shall see, you know, he certainly. I've said

865
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 1: this before. I think being an incumbent on the ballot

866
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 1: that's vulnerable this year hard stop. Obviously, some vulnerabilities are

867
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 1: greater than others, but I would keep that in mind.

868
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 1: Next question, Matt Minneapolis, Hey, as a horse race election guy,

869
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: elections guy, I've really been enjoying the primary night live streams. Nice.

870
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 1: Please keep them coming. We will. Next one is going

871
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,879
Speaker 1: to be for the Virginia special referendum, by the way,

872
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 1: in on April twenty first. Then we'll do all the

873
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 1: May primaries. May. He's going to be a huge primary month,

874
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,880
Speaker 1: so mark your calendars. Recently, you said that if Antonin

875
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,439
Speaker 1: Scalia had lived, Trump wouldn't have been elected, which seems

876
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: to apply. Hillary would have won in twenty sixteen. But

877
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 1: you also said the year it said the year you

878
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: thought she could have won was four. I do believe that.

879
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: Can you explain what you meant? Also, with and I

880
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 1: owe money and the transfer portal changing college basketball, do

881
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 1: you think limiting players to one transfer could help fix

882
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 1: some of the current issues and restore more team continuity?

883
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: Matt in Minneapolis, Go Gophers? All right, you got three

884
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: questions here, so yes, I think ultimately, I do believe

885
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton's best shot at the presidency was actually two

886
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 1: thousand and four, the year she didn't run, you know,

887
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 1: not OA in not sixteen. What do I mean? Why

888
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:30,880
Speaker 1: do I say, oh, four more than any others? And

889
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 1: I did this as a what if exercise, By the

890
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 1: way of alternative history, she was the front runner. She

891
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 1: had very high favorable ratings at the time, probably was

892
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 1: higher favorable ratings than John Carrey did at the time

893
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,840
Speaker 1: or even Al Gore. But that would happen with Hillary,

894
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:53,439
Speaker 1: right like you know, when she was in the middle

895
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 1: of a political campaign, then all the negatives would negative

896
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 1: negativity would come and it would lower her numbers. But still, look,

897
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:05,399
Speaker 1: we were in the middle of a war right after

898
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:13,200
Speaker 1: nine to eleven. I just think that being the former

899
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: first lady with another president sort of with a former

900
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:22,240
Speaker 1: president as the first gentleman, would have probably been enough

901
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 1: to convince that slice of voter who didn't want to

902
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 1: change horses in midstream during a war. And we were

903
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: at ward twenty oh four. So that's why I believe

904
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 1: the only Democrat that could have won maybe Al Gore

905
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 1: as a sitting former sitting vice president, former vice president,

906
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:39,399
Speaker 1: But I actually think that would have been the moment.

907
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 1: I think Hillary would have been seen as hawkish enough,

908
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,280
Speaker 1: and frankly, those voters that might be a little hesitant

909
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 1: about electing a woman president might have been reassured by

910
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 1: the fact that there's a former president who she happened

911
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 1: to be married to I just think when you're changing,

912
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 1: if you're asking voters to change commander in chiefs, they're

913
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 1: going to want more familiarity. And that's a case where

914
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 1: I think this is where by point, this is where

915
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 1: her her being tied to a former president was an asset,

916
00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 1: and I think a four would the only time was

917
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 1: an asset. Right, it was a liability in no A

918
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: because it didn't signify change, and by sixteen it was

919
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 1: a liability frankly for the same reason. Now, yes, do

920
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 1: I think that she ends up winning, I think she's

921
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: only a one term or if she does in sixteen,

922
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 1: if Scalia lives, I do because I do think Trump

923
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 1: had been disqualified and I think the only thing that

924
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: brought many Republicans back to hold their nose and instead

925
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 1: of voting Gary Johnson as a as a protest vote,

926
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 1: but when ahead to vote to Trump was the fact

927
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 1: that there was an open seat that was going to

928
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 1: be that could change literally change ideological hands depending on

929
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 1: the election of the president. And I do not I

930
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: think if Scalia is alive, I do not think. I

931
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 1: think you have more of those events, those people that

932
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 1: didn't like his character, who weren't ready to come aboard

933
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 1: the Trump train, probably end up in the Gary Johnson column,

934
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 1: and Gary Johnson probably ends up closer to ten percent,

935
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:59,720
Speaker 1: which would have been the decisive figure for Hillary Clinton.

936
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 1: So there's my explanation of that. All right, let me

937
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:06,080
Speaker 1: take one more question here, because I went long on

938
00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 1: both of those. This comes from Patrick in Los Angeles.

939
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 1: He goes the talk of I five and I ninety

940
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 1: five and political party messaging made me think of one

941
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 1: of my favorite pop culture quotes that unintentionally sums up

942
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 1: a lot of American politics. You see Homer meaning Homer Simpson.

943
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 1: You see Homer. There's a place between New York and

944
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:27,919
Speaker 1: Los Angeles. We call it America. Do you have any

945
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 1: pop culture quotes or moments that unintentionally carry weight politically,

946
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 1: Patrick and Los Angeles, I'll tell you one that I

947
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 1: use all the time. I always say my favorite political

948
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,360
Speaker 1: pundit is Buffalo Springfield, which of course is a group,

949
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,880
Speaker 1: not an individual, but some people think it Buffalo Springfield

950
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 1: sounds like an individual. But there's a there's a great

951
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:50,800
Speaker 1: Buffalo Springfield song. So the song title this is a

952
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 1: Buffalo Springfield song. The song title is for what It's worth.

953
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 1: It was written by Steven Stills. But it's but I

954
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 1: always say, you know, I think the most important, the

955
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 1: smartest political pundit we've ever had in handicapping elections as

956
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 1: Buffalo Springfield. Because and this goes back, and I'll tell

957
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 1: you the origin of why I became obsessed with this quote.

958
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:15,799
Speaker 1: The quote goes, there's something happening here. What it is

959
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 1: ain't exactly clear, and it's that first half. Now, the

960
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 1: rest of the stanza goes, there's a man with a

961
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 1: gun over there telling me I gotta beware, So I

962
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: leave the gun line out. But there's something happening here

963
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 1: and what it is ain't exactly clear. It is my

964
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 1: favorite cop out political punditry quote. And the first person

965
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: I ever saw use it was actually Stan Greenberg. He

966
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 1: was Bill Clinton's polster in ninety two. We made it

967
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 1: our quote of the day in the Hotline, and it

968
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 1: was just I just thought it was the funniest thing ever,

969
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 1: because it was like, it was clear to me that

970
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 1: the reporter who was quoting Greenberg thought they were taking

971
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 1: a serious quote from the polster, going well, you know,

972
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: there's something happening out here, but what it is ain't

973
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 1: exactly clear. Didn't say he was quoting somebody, so the

974
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 1: reporter was sort of oblivious to the fact that he

975
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 1: was doing a lyric, you know. And so I've always

976
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 1: just thought, I mean, you know, when you're a political reporter,

977
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 1: the weirdest things crack you up, and this one always

978
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 1: cracked me up. So it's always actually been my go to,

979
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 1: Hey whenever I you know, if I've been asked for

980
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 1: the empteeenth time, which way are things going? You know?

981
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: What did this poll mean? Well? You know, you know, Leicester,

982
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 1: there's something happening out of here, and what it is

983
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 1: ain't exactly clear. You gotta stop. Hey, what's that anyway?

984
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: So with that, I will leave you here. I've got

985
00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:42,200
Speaker 1: a real great rant to come on the Wizards and Nationals.

986
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 1: I do believe, and I challenge you, my listeners, to

987
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 1: to prove me wrong. Of all the form. If you

988
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 1: want to count NHL as your fourth major sport, NFL, NBA,

989
00:58:56,240 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 1: MLB and NHL, is there a four major sports city

990
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 1: in worst shape than right here in Washington. I don't

991
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 1: think there is another for sport, major city, major league

992
00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 1: city who doesn't have at least one team can actually

993
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:18,280
Speaker 1: contending for a title. The best we got is sort

994
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 1: of the Caps and OV who you just had and

995
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 1: can't ever count them out, and who knows, right hockey playoffs,

996
00:59:23,960 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 1: anything can happen. But let's be honest, it's kind of

997
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:31,919
Speaker 1: weak tea, right, It's aging. You know, it's a mess here.

998
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:37,360
Speaker 1: The Wizards and Nats are embarrassing, embarrassing their fan bases.

999
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 1: And I have a lot more to say about this

1000
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 1: tanking thing, but I've got to wrap up this broadcast,

1001
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 1: so with that, I'll see in twenty four hours.