Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: To date, AmeriCares has delivered six tons of protective supplies
Speaker 1: for the COVID nineteen pandemic, and more international domestic shipments
Speaker 1: are planned. The company works with more than four thousand
Speaker 1: health centers around the globe. Dr Julie um for verhe's
Speaker 1: forgive me. I just want to make sure I had
Speaker 1: that right. Julie Ver, He's he's. She is chief medical
Speaker 1: officer at America Cares UH and she joins us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Chicago. UM. Dr for He's nice to
Speaker 1: have you here with us, fast and furious. Where are
Speaker 1: we in terms of those protect active supplies for our
Speaker 1: healthcare workers. Thank you so much for having me UM.
Speaker 1: As we've seen, we are having significant challenges in terms
Speaker 1: of sourcing protective equipment or healthcare workers on the front lines. UM.
Speaker 1: You know at America's we have sentshipments of personal protective equipment,
Speaker 1: particularly in hot films UM here in the US in
Speaker 1: Washington State, California, New York. But UM have, similar to
Speaker 1: other organizations, been having a significant, significant number of challenges
Speaker 1: in terms of sourcing supplies that are so critically needed
Speaker 1: right now for healthcare workers. I think one of the
Speaker 1: concerns was, and I certainly saw this over the weekend, Jason,
Speaker 1: you probably did tune watching the press conferences between governors
Speaker 1: and what we got from the Coronavirus Task Force that
Speaker 1: there seems to be you know, is there the flow
Speaker 1: of equipment. Is the government kind of taking central control
Speaker 1: of it and making sure that supplies are getting to
Speaker 1: where they need to go, because what we're seeing is
Speaker 1: price gouging as state try to access the needed supplies.
Speaker 1: Are we getting that coordinated effort that seems to be
Speaker 1: necessary at this point? Yeah, that's a great question. I
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of action that is taking place
Speaker 1: UM and and there's a lot of coordination that is happening,
Speaker 1: but there's still more that's really needed. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: we are seeing a lot of the individual states taking
Speaker 1: significant measures UM, but certainly this is a cross sectoral effort.
Speaker 1: This is an unprecedented time that we're in. We have
Speaker 1: not seen these types of shortages in previous help grips
Speaker 1: that we've been involved with, and so certainly there is
Speaker 1: a call for even more action UM and collaboration and
Speaker 1: coordination amongst the various sectors within government but also in
Speaker 1: the private and public sectors as well. And so Dr
Speaker 1: Brahe's help us understand. You know, with this limited amount
Speaker 1: of protective gear, how does that play through to you know,
Speaker 1: what everyday people should be doing in terms of when
Speaker 1: to go to a hospital, when to go to a clinic,
Speaker 1: how to sort of deal with with their own stuff
Speaker 1: in order to not uh, sort of way too much
Speaker 1: on the system unnecessarily. Yeah, that's a fantastic question. And
Speaker 1: I think the general public, you know, I can't over
Speaker 1: emphasize enough the importance of social distancing. We're seeing so
Speaker 1: much of that emphasized in the media. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: folks really being urged to stay at home to the
Speaker 1: best of their ability. Um. You know, certainly there's needs
Speaker 1: to go out for medical care and growth rates, but
Speaker 1: really trying to stay home as much as possible. And
Speaker 1: I think that every single person has an important role
Speaker 1: to play in contributing just slowing down the spread. We're
Speaker 1: hearing a lot about flattening the curve or slowing down
Speaker 1: the spread of infection, and so I think implementing social distancing,
Speaker 1: really focusing on preventative measures like basic handwashing, cough etiquette, UM,
Speaker 1: not touching your faith are so important. And and I
Speaker 1: would say, really we're focusing not just on kind of
Speaker 1: containing the infection, We're focusing on not overwhelming the healthcare system. Well,
Speaker 1: Dr Varkis, and I forgive, forgive me, I think I've
Speaker 1: been mispronouncing your name, so my apologies, but Dr Archie's
Speaker 1: I think that's what I was seeing a lot of
Speaker 1: questions about over the weekend. Where are we getting to
Speaker 1: a point because of shortage of supplies of this protective
Speaker 1: gear for healthcare workers that UM, medical personnel, doctors and
Speaker 1: others will have to make choices about who they can
Speaker 1: treat or who they can provide equipment on, whether it's
Speaker 1: based on age or based on how vulnerable somebody is.
Speaker 1: I mean, are we getting to that point? I don't
Speaker 1: think we're quite there yet, but will we get there
Speaker 1: in a week potentially? It's hard to know exactly what
Speaker 1: the timeline could be. And I think all of the
Speaker 1: efforts were trying to put into place currently um both
Speaker 1: at the state and federal level, really trying to help
Speaker 1: decrease the risk of getting there. Certainly, the healthcare system
Speaker 1: and healthcare workers are already McCoy taxed in terms of
Speaker 1: limitations on personal protective equipment and other types of equipment.
Speaker 1: But we're really trying to help slow down the spread
Speaker 1: and and how fast we may find ourselves in that
Speaker 1: type of situation like we're seeing, you know, in Italy
Speaker 1: and other places. And Dr Argy's what are we learning about,
Speaker 1: especially as we think about the biggest cities in the
Speaker 1: country and you are there in Chicago one of them.
Speaker 1: You know, we've seen these restrictive measures, the essential shelter
Speaker 1: in place, even if we're not calling it that, in
Speaker 1: all these different places in California, here in New York,
Speaker 1: uh and also in Illinois, where you are. We're seeing
Speaker 1: other states take similar measures. What are we seeing in
Speaker 1: terms of the efficacy of that or when will we
Speaker 1: know how effective that is? Yeah, so it's it's hard
Speaker 1: to know exactly how soon because we're seeing varying levels
Speaker 1: they say of the whole shelter in place concept. But
Speaker 1: certainly UM just urging people to social distance and to
Speaker 1: shelter in place, I think we can truly slow down
Speaker 1: the spread. UM. It may take still a week or
Speaker 1: more to really understand how that kind of impacts the
Speaker 1: next wave of cases and how much of an increase
Speaker 1: or increase we're seeing in terms of these having these
Speaker 1: measures in place and the impact in terms of the
Speaker 1: case counts. I do wonder about underserved populations and whether
Speaker 1: or not they're getting the necessary care and able to
Speaker 1: get out there. What are you seeing on that front
Speaker 1: or what are we doing to make sure that they
Speaker 1: are taking care of along with everybody else. Yeah, certainly
Speaker 1: we UM and Americas are concerned about low income, uninsured
Speaker 1: and underinsured individuals and community. We have clinics, four clinics
Speaker 1: here in Connecticut. I'm actually located in Connecticut where our
Speaker 1: America's headquarters is in UM and so we have four
Speaker 1: free clinics where we are serving low income, uninsured and
Speaker 1: under insured individuals UM and really trying to maintain primary
Speaker 1: care services as well. We have clinics in El Salvador
Speaker 1: as well as the community of Mumbai. And what we've
Speaker 1: seen in our previous experience with outbreaks is that while
Speaker 1: there is a lot of attention and resources put behind
Speaker 1: containment of UH the spread of infection, there's also a
Speaker 1: need for continuation of services, especially primary care services. We
Speaker 1: saw this in a BOLO where you know, people were
Speaker 1: dying of their chronic disease such as hypertension or diabetes
Speaker 1: because there weren't enough resources and access to services for
Speaker 1: their chronic care conditions. And so UM as an organization,
Speaker 1: we've really tried to, to the best of our ability,
Speaker 1: keeping in mind the safety of our health care workers
Speaker 1: on the front line, continue those primary care services in
Speaker 1: addition to the screening and referrals that we're doing for
Speaker 1: COVID ninet teams. All Right, we're gonna leave it there.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time. Dr Julie Vargis
Speaker 1: is Chief Medical Officer for AmeriCares, joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Connecticut. Some good information there and a reminder
Speaker 1: that ultimately, Carol and Ute, we did something to this
Speaker 1: effect earlier the healthcare crisis. You know, we talk a
Speaker 1: lot about the markets in the financial world, but this
Speaker 1: is very very much a healthcare crisis and one that
Speaker 1: a lot of doctors are trying to deal with. Trick
Speaker 1: here and trick here. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Let's get
Speaker 1: down to d C now. Josh wynd Grove is their
Speaker 1: White House correspondent for Bloomberg. Great story today on the terminal,
Speaker 1: as we mentioned about where the president's head maybe on
Speaker 1: this stay at home advice that we've so many of
Speaker 1: us have been given. Josh, great to have you back
Speaker 1: with Carol and myself. Tell us what the president is
Speaker 1: thinking right now. UM, it's hard to say the mind
Speaker 1: that there is some sort of way to have your
Speaker 1: cake and eat it too, that you can signal two
Speaker 1: Americans that you know, it's dawn again. We're getting through this. UM.
Speaker 1: You can start, you know, stepping back a bit from
Speaker 1: the measures that we've all started taking in the last while. UM,
Speaker 1: but health officials are going to push back on that
Speaker 1: and say we are not out of the woods yet.
Speaker 1: For instance, the caseloads are still rising. We have no
Speaker 1: idea when the when they will plateau in terms of
Speaker 1: new cases. The deaths, of course continue to rise. America
Speaker 1: has a shortage of testing and of medical supplies to
Speaker 1: treat it, everything from masks to hospital beds and ventilators,
Speaker 1: and so there's a lot of uh, you know, clouds
Speaker 1: on the horizon, and it would be it seems like
Speaker 1: a weird time for him to be preparing to sort
Speaker 1: of declare victory and start coming back towards the more
Speaker 1: normal life. Yeah, safe to say that. I think most
Speaker 1: people believe that. To josh Um that all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of a thinking. I think crucial to this,
Speaker 1: right is that health side of the story, in that
Speaker 1: you know, if you've had the virus, you know, don't
Speaker 1: we need to have some testing to see if you
Speaker 1: build up some immunity to it so that you can
Speaker 1: go back. Because I think the fear is all so
Speaker 1: I feel like we were talking so much last week
Speaker 1: about the second wave. As we start to go back,
Speaker 1: I think there's been some concerns about that happening in China, uh,
Speaker 1: and elsewhere. So are we thinking it all about that?
Speaker 1: It's a good question. I mean not really, because we
Speaker 1: don't really have the capacity to test people in that regard.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, like I like to think of
Speaker 1: like I want to think of workspaces. Let's think of
Speaker 1: like the NBA, right like if they wanted to start
Speaker 1: playing basketball again, they would have to test every team
Speaker 1: and the and the referees and coaches every game. And
Speaker 1: they just don't. They just don't have that. And so
Speaker 1: you start to scale that, and that's even what what
Speaker 1: would that be? Thirty people? Maybe? You know, it was
Speaker 1: so bad bare minimum to run a game in an
Speaker 1: EFT the arena. Scale that to look a big company,
Speaker 1: big employer, what do you do right? One person coming
Speaker 1: back could potentially carry it when you know, you just you,
Speaker 1: you have no idea. So I think Trump there is
Speaker 1: a clear movement in the last twenty four hours among
Speaker 1: Trump and the people he listens to to say that
Speaker 1: the economy can't stand to be on the mat all
Speaker 1: that longer. You've got to give some sort of signal,
Speaker 1: even if it is only a signal that things will
Speaker 1: start moving back to normal life at some point. Uh,
Speaker 1: and the inflection point to do that is in one week.
Speaker 1: That's when Trump's fifteen days tops to stop the spread
Speaker 1: strategy expires next Monday or so. Um. But health officials say, look,
Speaker 1: if we don't have a handle on the upbreak, reopening
Speaker 1: things is only going to make it worse. Right. Well,
Speaker 1: and it's clear and and this has been not I
Speaker 1: was gonna say it's been nuanced. It actually hasn't been
Speaker 1: that nuance. You know when you see Dr Fauci and
Speaker 1: Dr Burke's up there, you know, sort of gently correcting
Speaker 1: the record sometimes at these briefings. And you know, it's interesting,
Speaker 1: Joshua I read something this morning that essentially said, part
Speaker 1: of this is because these briefings every day have become
Speaker 1: I dare say political, to to a large extent, confrontational
Speaker 1: with with the media. They are not necessarily just delivering
Speaker 1: the latest and greatest when it comes to the medical outlook. Right. Um, yeah,
Speaker 1: they're they're the length of like an eighties comedy. Every day.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're there forever um tonight, god knows how
Speaker 1: long it will last. We'll see. Um. But you know,
Speaker 1: for media, the White House doesn't provide a lot of
Speaker 1: information that briefing is the only way to ask basic
Speaker 1: things like how many masks do we have? What is
Speaker 1: the caseload? Do we have ventilators? Arguably we shouldn't be
Speaker 1: wasting national airtime asking the president for the numbers themselves,
Speaker 1: but you know, this is our only opportunity to So,
Speaker 1: you know, I think Trump is out there every day.
Speaker 1: He's he's trying to look like he's leading on that.
Speaker 1: His his sort of orbit is touting elevated approval numbers
Speaker 1: and is handling of this. But we are not out
Speaker 1: of the woods yet. Absolutely. Yeah, no, that's for sure. Um, Josh,
Speaker 1: really appreciate all your efforts and all your reporting, and
Speaker 1: thanks for finding time for us. Josh wynd Grove joining
Speaker 1: us from Washington, one of the most read and one
Speaker 1: of the most read guys. It's just true. Joe, No Sarah,
Speaker 1: he joins us on the phone from Southampton. We're gonna
Speaker 1: set that aside for a second, because then we would
Speaker 1: just go down the rabbit hole of the shrink next door,
Speaker 1: and we'll save that for another day. Joe. Joe Webber
Speaker 1: also with us. Uh, he is in Brooklyn. That's where
Speaker 1: we're finding him these days. So no, Sarah, I want
Speaker 1: to start with you, Uh, this is a provocative look
Speaker 1: to some extent about what could happen uh down the
Speaker 1: line as it relates to vaccines and basically forcing people
Speaker 1: are forcing an issue. I should say, tell us what
Speaker 1: you found. Well, well, I just I went back and
Speaker 1: looked at what happened, um during swine flu. That was
Speaker 1: that was my idea. Uh, you know, excuse me, what
Speaker 1: what sort of measures were there were state governments able
Speaker 1: to take, um to to kind of get people past that.
Speaker 1: And one of the things that I discovered was that
Speaker 1: in the state of New York, the health the head
Speaker 1: of the health department had ordered UM all health care
Speaker 1: workers to take the vaccine under the threat of being
Speaker 1: fired if they didn't do it by you know, like
Speaker 1: they were given like a month and a half to
Speaker 1: do it. And what happened was, um, you know, they
Speaker 1: got sued by some uh by some nurses and by
Speaker 1: UM a union, a workers union, and UM the judge
Speaker 1: ordered to stay. So in other words, that the judge said,
Speaker 1: you can't do this, and I'll you know, then I'll
Speaker 1: rule on the merriats later and and in the meantime,
Speaker 1: the vaccine turned out to be in such short supply
Speaker 1: that the governor, Governor Patterson at the time, decided it
Speaker 1: was pointless to try and enforce this, and so they
Speaker 1: just kind of gave up. So what it means is
Speaker 1: that even when there is a vaccine, we really don't
Speaker 1: know legally what right people and particularly health workers are
Speaker 1: going to have in dealing with this. And I can
Speaker 1: guarantee you that if somebody tries to enforce a vaccine
Speaker 1: with the anti vax movement being what it is today, uh,
Speaker 1: there will be an uproar and there will be a
Speaker 1: lot of litigates. Come on, come on, Well, that's why Joe,
Speaker 1: what was the name of the case, because it is
Speaker 1: one that I think is going to be in the headlines. Um,
Speaker 1: if and when there's a vaccine, you would have to
Speaker 1: ask me that's Binian Binian versus danged. And what I
Speaker 1: what I actually thought, what I thought was remarkable about
Speaker 1: this little bit of slicing on Joe's part, was that
Speaker 1: we've actually been down this road before, right Like we've
Speaker 1: been We've seen like the swine swine flu at the
Speaker 1: time that was a pandemic and there were a lot
Speaker 1: of people who got sick. And here we were racing out.
Speaker 1: Um uh, you know, a vaccine. And one of the
Speaker 1: elements that the I think is important to keep in
Speaker 1: mind here was that the healthcare workers said, we don't
Speaker 1: want to be giddap in this case. And that was
Speaker 1: actually one of the one of the things that the
Speaker 1: judge decided when he decided on this day. Um So
Speaker 1: when you kind of when you when you think about this,
Speaker 1: like New York State was where this case was centered,
Speaker 1: um and and it will be probably a state issue
Speaker 1: before it's anything else. Is that not? Right? Without without question,
Speaker 1: it will, especially given how lacks the federal government has
Speaker 1: been dealing with this pandemic, it will definitely be a
Speaker 1: state issue. You can definitely see Cuomo saying you have
Speaker 1: to do this, and you can definitely see enormous pushbacks
Speaker 1: from um and and and by the way, the same
Speaker 1: is happening here in terms of the vaccine itself. You know,
Speaker 1: everybody's talking about we got a rush the vaccine out,
Speaker 1: We got a rush the vaccine out. Right, you usually
Speaker 1: take a year and a half to two years, right, exactly. Well,
Speaker 1: and I also think about the bigger worker issue, especially
Speaker 1: with some of the conversation. You know that we heard
Speaker 1: just from our Josh Wing Grove who covers the White
Speaker 1: House and Washington. You know about the President talking already
Speaker 1: about people workers getting back to work, and you do wonder,
Speaker 1: you know, could we get to a point where, Okay,
Speaker 1: if you want to go back to work, if you
Speaker 1: get this vaccine, and if you don't take it, like,
Speaker 1: it just opens up all these weird questions. Joe, right, right, absolutely,
Speaker 1: and that's true that you know there's another vaccine. Uh,
Speaker 1: people who kind of hold, excuse me, another test. It's
Speaker 1: an antibody test. It's supposed to be fairly closed. And
Speaker 1: the importance of the antibody test is that it can
Speaker 1: tell you if you're immune. So so you can definitely
Speaker 1: see a situation where the government says, you have to
Speaker 1: take this antibody test because we have to know whether
Speaker 1: you are immune. And if you're immune, you gotta go
Speaker 1: back to work. Well, you gotta go. You know, you've
Speaker 1: got to be part of the economy again. So you know,
Speaker 1: you could see the same set of issues. It's not
Speaker 1: quite the same as a vaccine, but you could definitely
Speaker 1: see the same set of issues. They are well, and guys,
Speaker 1: I do wonder, and Joe, I would love for you
Speaker 1: to weigh on this as well. I mean, we are
Speaker 1: in this moment where it feels like in the name
Speaker 1: of public health, public safety, our own and those of
Speaker 1: our communities and whatnot. Maybe you know, we're starting to
Speaker 1: think about some very basic you know, rights and what
Speaker 1: we can and can't do in sort of a different way.
Speaker 1: And you know, if you spend too long on Twitter,
Speaker 1: you can go down some rabbit holes about what the
Speaker 1: government can and can't do here. Right, well, you know
Speaker 1: make sense. I think I think about like nine eleven, right,
Speaker 1: and you think about what a tales beIN um that
Speaker 1: put our society for for you know, a decade plus
Speaker 1: in terms of civil liberties, and didn't to some extent
Speaker 1: like we might be terrunning a similar phase here which
Speaker 1: will test our social fabric. And I wanted to go
Speaker 1: ahead to come at it from a different from a
Speaker 1: different angle. You know, when the polio virus came out,
Speaker 1: I was a little kid, and I remember my mother
Speaker 1: takes you to get a polio shot and that was
Speaker 1: not that was not that was mandatory. Everybody in the
Speaker 1: country had to take a polo shot. Nobody complained about
Speaker 1: it because everybody was so terrified, terrified about polio. And
Speaker 1: so what I think is that we could see an
Speaker 1: era when we go back to that where if this
Speaker 1: virus is bad enough, you could see the court upholding
Speaker 1: a government saying you have to do this for the
Speaker 1: greater good. And I feel like the greater good is
Speaker 1: something that's kind of been forgotten the last couple of decades.
Speaker 1: And you know, however you feel about mandatory vaccines working
Speaker 1: on behalf of the greater good is something that society
Speaker 1: really needs to recaptured. No, it's a eight point and
Speaker 1: certainly it's something that we have been talking more and
Speaker 1: more about. I mean social distancing really only what you know,
Speaker 1: if like only a couple of people are social distancing themselves,
Speaker 1: then it really it doesn't work so well, all right,
Speaker 1: Jonah Sarah always thought provocative. Thank you so much. Johning
Speaker 1: us on the phone from Southampton, New York. Joe Webber
Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from Brooklyn. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Now.
Speaker 1: We often talk about this with our Andy Brown, about
Speaker 1: globalization and the factors that have been shipping away at it.
Speaker 1: One factor to consider is the virus and how it
Speaker 1: might ultimately kill globalization. Andy Brown is Bloomberg New Economy
Speaker 1: editorial director. He's on the phone in New Hampshire. Andy,
Speaker 1: good to have you back with us. First of all,
Speaker 1: you guys all doing okay, we're doing great up here
Speaker 1: in uh in New Hampshire. Actually the terrific part of
Speaker 1: the US to be in right now. Yeah, we'll tell
Speaker 1: us a little bit about because as we watch the
Speaker 1: rest of the world. Um, you know, it's really certainly
Speaker 1: tough going. You have talked to us in the past
Speaker 1: about the things that are really chipping away at globalization,
Speaker 1: this virus. We have seen a lot of fighting. Certainly
Speaker 1: it feels like our tensions between the US and China
Speaker 1: as a result of you know, kind of finger pointing
Speaker 1: at who cost h Um talked to us though about
Speaker 1: the broader implications potentially for globalization. Yeah. So so you know,
Speaker 1: the way I look at it is, you know, ultimately globalization,
Speaker 1: economic globalization depends on trust that you know, essentially, you've
Speaker 1: got these incredibly long and complex supply chains, many of
Speaker 1: them running through China, and companies and countries have got
Speaker 1: to believe in the integrity of those chains. Um, and
Speaker 1: they haven't really been tested in the last several decades
Speaker 1: that much. I mean, you had an episodes, for instance,
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eleven, you had floods in Thailand,
Speaker 1: you had an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and parts
Speaker 1: of the electronic supply chain came down. And now you
Speaker 1: have massive global failures of supply chains. And you know,
Speaker 1: not just that, you have you know this uh, simultaneous
Speaker 1: erosion of trust between the big actors in the globalization dramas.
Speaker 1: So you know, uh, most notably uh and most disastrously
Speaker 1: right now between the US and China. And you know, uh,
Speaker 1: we're seeing that in medicines, in pharmaceuticals, where it's become
Speaker 1: clear that the US economy is highly dependent and many
Speaker 1: would argue dangerously dependent on China. And indeed, we've had
Speaker 1: insinuations from the Chinese media that you know, what would
Speaker 1: happen if China denied active pharmaceutical ingredients to the US industry,
Speaker 1: And this has rarely raised red flags uh here in
Speaker 1: the US, you know, is the US has the US
Speaker 1: become too reliant on China? But you're also seeing it
Speaker 1: in in Europe with borders going up with with you know,
Speaker 1: Germany France accusing each other of holding face masks, Italy
Speaker 1: begging in vain for help for emergency equipment, you know,
Speaker 1: from the neighbors, and in the end having to look
Speaker 1: to China for help. And China is seeing all this,
Speaker 1: by the way, and really trying to take advantage of
Speaker 1: it well. And and obviously the political rhetoric is really
Speaker 1: escalating to uh andy, you know it that I was
Speaker 1: listening to something this morning that was talking about even
Speaker 1: the way that the President United States is framing this,
Speaker 1: you know, continuing to refer to it as the Chinese virus,
Speaker 1: and this relationship that's always been complicated, to say the
Speaker 1: least between him and President She getting more complicated in
Speaker 1: a lot of ways. Now, how does that contribute to
Speaker 1: the overall ethos here? Yeah? So you know what's what's
Speaker 1: so tragic we talked about this last week is right now,
Speaker 1: the US and China ought to be collaborating on everything.
Speaker 1: On the search for a vaccine, They ought to be
Speaker 1: working together on the manufacture of face masks, of ventilators,
Speaker 1: of gowns, on on, on, and distribution of all of this.
Speaker 1: This this emergency gear which hospitals right now in the
Speaker 1: US so desperately need and in fact, this coronavirus has
Speaker 1: just opened up a whole new battleground battle front between
Speaker 1: them and Steve Bannon was quoted in New York Times
Speaker 1: that day saying, you know, we are now in an
Speaker 1: information hot war, uh, in addition to economic hot war,
Speaker 1: by which he meant that, you know, the narrative around
Speaker 1: the coronavirus, where did it, where did it begin? You
Speaker 1: know who's to blame? Um has become now you know,
Speaker 1: a deeply contested area between these two countries, and they're
Speaker 1: using it in order to gain geopolitical influence and leverage.
Speaker 1: And he asked you to be quick. Just got about
Speaker 1: thirty seconds. But as the horse left the barn, I mean,
Speaker 1: could someone else fix the situation? Maybe somebody else in
Speaker 1: the next administration, or is this how it's going to
Speaker 1: be between the US and China going forward? Just quickly
Speaker 1: if you could. Uh? Well, I mean, unfortunately U S
Speaker 1: China relations in this country in the United States are
Speaker 1: very much a bipartisan issue. Uh. That It's not at
Speaker 1: all clear that a democratic, democratic president would um, you know,
Speaker 1: would would alter course. I don't, however, think that a
Speaker 1: democratic president, or indeed have any other president would go
Speaker 1: to the length that Donald Trump does right now in
Speaker 1: deliberately fanning Miss Trump and deliberately infuriating China by calling
Speaker 1: at the Chinese virus and Pompeo calling at the Wuhan virus,
Speaker 1: by the way, least with terrible backlash against Asian Americans
Speaker 1: in the United All right, Andy Brown, always good to
Speaker 1: catch up with you. Thank you so much, Editorial director
Speaker 1: of the New Economy here at Bloomberg mac A Journal.
Speaker 1: But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the righting drivel. I want to try it.
Speaker 1: Just drive, baby, it's the questions trying. This is the
Speaker 1: drive to the clobes. Communings well, un Radio, it is
Speaker 1: time for the drive to the close. Charlie, Bobrinskoy is
Speaker 1: back with us. Why, Chairman, Vice chairman and head of
Speaker 1: investment group at Erroal Investments. I've got roughly thirteen point
Speaker 1: two billion in assets under management joining us on the
Speaker 1: phone in Chicago. Charlie. Really nice to have you with us.
Speaker 1: Tell us, um, first of all, I hope you, your family,
Speaker 1: your team, everybody's doing okay, Yes they are. I'm spending
Speaker 1: a lot of time with my family. How's that going now?
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding, Um, what is it like in Chicago, Charlie,
Speaker 1: You know, I mean that we're so focused, you know,
Speaker 1: being here in New York into what it's like here.
Speaker 1: But you know, your governor JB. Pritzkers has made some
Speaker 1: similar steps to to ours in terms of, you know,
Speaker 1: really locking things down. It's an interesting question. I think, Um,
Speaker 1: the coasts have been hit much harder in terms of
Speaker 1: actual cases, impact on hospitals. Obviously, New York, Washington State,
Speaker 1: in California account for the majority of the cases and deaths,
Speaker 1: and we are seeing some activity in the Midwest. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is more concentrated in cities, but in general very
Speaker 1: little impact. So this is one of those situations where
Speaker 1: obviously a lot of farmers, a lot of rural areas
Speaker 1: in the middle of the country that are frankly not
Speaker 1: affected on a daily basis. So, Charlie, when you when
Speaker 1: you hear what's coming out of Washington, what you've seen
Speaker 1: the FED do at this point, um, and what you're
Speaker 1: seeing obviously in Chicago in terms of the impact and
Speaker 1: just the impact on global markets overall. I mean, do
Speaker 1: you agree with the steps that have been taken so far,
Speaker 1: and what do you think Congress needs to do. You know,
Speaker 1: obviously there are people that are more knowledgeable than I am.
Speaker 1: But clearly Governor Cuomo said something today which I think
Speaker 1: a lot of us agree with, in which the Washington
Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal editorial page has said, which is
Speaker 1: that this is having a big effect on the economy
Speaker 1: and it is not good for the health care of
Speaker 1: the health of our citizens to have an implodeddc to me.
Speaker 1: And so there are going to be times in the future,
Speaker 1: not tomorrow, but when we have to get back to work,
Speaker 1: and that's going to be done in a prudent way.
Speaker 1: It's going to be done, um, when it is not
Speaker 1: going to endanger our citizens, but it is going to
Speaker 1: need to happen because we cannot have all of us
Speaker 1: staying home and um, imploded economy is not good for anybody.
Speaker 1: And so Charlie, put on your investment hat here as
Speaker 1: you talk to the team, Uh, what what are you
Speaker 1: guys thinking about in terms of where where the market
Speaker 1: is trading at this point and how you approach this
Speaker 1: as savvy investors. So what we do is try not
Speaker 1: to look at the market as a whole, but look
Speaker 1: at individual companies and the basic analysis is try to
Speaker 1: find names that are going to have a very tough
Speaker 1: time on the short term, because the market always looks
Speaker 1: at the short term, but are going to be fine
Speaker 1: in the long term. And one key um differentiator in
Speaker 1: that is good balance sheets. If I had to say
Speaker 1: one thing that the stock market doesn't do particularly well,
Speaker 1: it's analyzed the credit of companies. And so we are
Speaker 1: real pride ourselves on doing good credit work, investing in
Speaker 1: companies that are sure going to have a tough quarter
Speaker 1: but are going to be fine in the long run.
Speaker 1: So so where does that lead you to? I mean,
Speaker 1: we always talk to you about Tiffany and as we know, um,
Speaker 1: you know l v m H is in the process
Speaker 1: of of taking it over. You you know, send some
Speaker 1: notes over and you said that if LVMH wanted to
Speaker 1: get out of the deal, they could by claiming a
Speaker 1: material adverse change. Do you think that's likely? Yeah, So
Speaker 1: to be very careful, I'm not saying that they would
Speaker 1: win in the end and if they claimed the material
Speaker 1: adverse change, but they clearly could if they wanted to
Speaker 1: get out of the deal. We saw in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, there were a lot of acquisitions that got
Speaker 1: canceled because of either financing outs or material adverse change outs.
Speaker 1: And so at this point, I think Tiffany would be
Speaker 1: able to make the argument that there hasn't been a downturn.
Speaker 1: I'm a material downturn in their actual results. But I again,
Speaker 1: if if the leadership of m VH wanted to uh
Speaker 1: St Louis Bitton wanted to get out of this deal,
Speaker 1: I think they'd have a legitimate argument. So far, it
Speaker 1: doesn't look like they want to get out of this um.
Speaker 1: But obviously that's why the stock is trading at a
Speaker 1: significant discount to the deal price. And so take us
Speaker 1: inside a company or inside your analysis of a company
Speaker 1: like Tiffany in this particular case. You know, a few
Speaker 1: months ago we were talking about it's like, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe they're going to be impacted or they are impacted
Speaker 1: by Hong Kong protests at the luxury market there and
Speaker 1: maybe the luxury market in China. This is now a
Speaker 1: global pandemic. How do you look at a luxury name
Speaker 1: like that and how does that extend into some of
Speaker 1: your other analysis. Yeah, so Tiffany is a special case
Speaker 1: because there's a takeover, but if it was a standalone
Speaker 1: private that would be the exact kind of company that
Speaker 1: we would on. There's no doubt that they're going to
Speaker 1: have a short term down turn in in sales. People
Speaker 1: are not going to be making big luxury purchases. But
Speaker 1: in the long run, this is not going to affect
Speaker 1: people's desire to own jewelry. And it had a great
Speaker 1: balance sheet, it had a great brand. All of those
Speaker 1: things are gonna be fine. Um, whenever we get to
Speaker 1: the other side of this, and the difference between this
Speaker 1: downturn and the two thousand and eight downturn. In two
Speaker 1: thousand and eight, we really had to worry about whether
Speaker 1: the whole banking system was going to survive this time,
Speaker 1: I think we can all see the other side of this.
Speaker 1: It's just a question of whether the other side is
Speaker 1: three months away, six months away, or a year away.
Speaker 1: Did you think we are at or near the peak
Speaker 1: of bad news? So it's a great question. So when
Speaker 1: we spend a lot of time thinking about, because it
Speaker 1: really is the question when the bad news right now,
Speaker 1: the bad news is coming faster and faster and faster,
Speaker 1: and the number of deaths is accelerating, but that's gonna
Speaker 1: turn in a relatively short period of time, and we
Speaker 1: think we will reach the pace of bad news is
Speaker 1: probably right now the worst. We're gonna actually reach a
Speaker 1: peak of bad news, which is sort of the first
Speaker 1: derivative um around. We think within less than a month.
Speaker 1: And so once from now, the bad news is not
Speaker 1: going to stop. People are still gonna be passing away,
Speaker 1: but we will the pace of bad news will be better,
Speaker 1: and people will be more convinced that we can see
Speaker 1: the other side. And so we think we could start
Speaker 1: to get a rallying confidence in inside of a month.
Speaker 1: And in the meantime, can I just say, I'm just
Speaker 1: gotta sitting there with the month, Charlie, I saw it.
Speaker 1: I'm the only person, Charlie, by the way, in our
Speaker 1: in our current setup, that can see Carol's face because
Speaker 1: we're connected by video conference. And I saw it fall
Speaker 1: when you said inside a month, which you know, I
Speaker 1: think is is hard for people to sort of get
Speaker 1: their heads around to you. Well, frankly, there are some
Speaker 1: people thinking it's gonna be a lot more than a month.
Speaker 1: So so I think I don't want to to be
Speaker 1: Palianish here. I don't want to tell you everything is
Speaker 1: going to be fine next week. I think we're gonna
Speaker 1: Governor Pomo has seen the numbers and he's saying that
Speaker 1: the hospital's situation is going to get worse. Um Now,
Speaker 1: I will say this Carroul, to try to brighten your
Speaker 1: day a little bit. I think there's a chance that
Speaker 1: businesses are going to start to open up, maybe in
Speaker 1: eleven or twelve days. Um So it could be it
Speaker 1: could be less than four weeks, but it's not going
Speaker 1: to be this week. Yeah, all right, Well, we always
Speaker 1: really appreciate your inside so thoughtful. Charlie Brinskoye is the
Speaker 1: vice chairman, head of the investment group at Aerial Investments,
Speaker 1: looking after about thirteen point two billion dollars. You're going
Speaker 1: just on the phone from Chicago. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
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