WEBVTT - Trump Weighing Easing Stay-at-Home Advice

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>only on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so let's get to that, folks.

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<v Speaker 1>To date, AmeriCares has delivered six tons of protective supplies

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<v Speaker 1>for the COVID nineteen pandemic, and more international domestic shipments

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<v Speaker 1>are planned. The company works with more than four thousand

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<v Speaker 1>health centers around the globe. Dr Julie um for verhe's

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<v Speaker 1>forgive me. I just want to make sure I had

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<v Speaker 1>that right. Julie Ver, He's he's. She is chief medical

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<v Speaker 1>officer at America Cares UH and she joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Chicago. UM. Dr for He's nice to

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<v Speaker 1>have you here with us, fast and furious. Where are

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<v Speaker 1>we in terms of those protect active supplies for our

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare workers. Thank you so much for having me UM.

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<v Speaker 1>As we've seen, we are having significant challenges in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of sourcing protective equipment or healthcare workers on the front lines. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You know at America's we have sentshipments of personal protective equipment,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in hot films UM here in the US in

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<v Speaker 1>Washington State, California, New York. But UM have, similar to

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<v Speaker 1>other organizations, been having a significant, significant number of challenges

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of sourcing supplies that are so critically needed

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<v Speaker 1>right now for healthcare workers. I think one of the

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<v Speaker 1>concerns was, and I certainly saw this over the weekend, Jason,

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<v Speaker 1>you probably did tune watching the press conferences between governors

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<v Speaker 1>and what we got from the Coronavirus Task Force that

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<v Speaker 1>there seems to be you know, is there the flow

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<v Speaker 1>of equipment. Is the government kind of taking central control

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<v Speaker 1>of it and making sure that supplies are getting to

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<v Speaker 1>where they need to go, because what we're seeing is

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<v Speaker 1>price gouging as state try to access the needed supplies.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we getting that coordinated effort that seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>necessary at this point? Yeah, that's a great question. I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's a lot of action that is taking place

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<v Speaker 1>UM and and there's a lot of coordination that is happening,

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<v Speaker 1>but there's still more that's really needed. UM. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we are seeing a lot of the individual states taking

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<v Speaker 1>significant measures UM, but certainly this is a cross sectoral effort.

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<v Speaker 1>This is an unprecedented time that we're in. We have

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<v Speaker 1>not seen these types of shortages in previous help grips

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<v Speaker 1>that we've been involved with, and so certainly there is

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<v Speaker 1>a call for even more action UM and collaboration and

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<v Speaker 1>coordination amongst the various sectors within government but also in

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<v Speaker 1>the private and public sectors as well. And so Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Brahe's help us understand. You know, with this limited amount

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<v Speaker 1>of protective gear, how does that play through to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what everyday people should be doing in terms of when

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<v Speaker 1>to go to a hospital, when to go to a clinic,

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<v Speaker 1>how to sort of deal with with their own stuff

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<v Speaker 1>in order to not uh, sort of way too much

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<v Speaker 1>on the system unnecessarily. Yeah, that's a fantastic question. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think the general public, you know, I can't over

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<v Speaker 1>emphasize enough the importance of social distancing. We're seeing so

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<v Speaker 1>much of that emphasized in the media. Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>folks really being urged to stay at home to the

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<v Speaker 1>best of their ability. Um. You know, certainly there's needs

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<v Speaker 1>to go out for medical care and growth rates, but

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<v Speaker 1>really trying to stay home as much as possible. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that every single person has an important role

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<v Speaker 1>to play in contributing just slowing down the spread. We're

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<v Speaker 1>hearing a lot about flattening the curve or slowing down

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<v Speaker 1>the spread of infection, and so I think implementing social distancing,

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<v Speaker 1>really focusing on preventative measures like basic handwashing, cough etiquette, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>not touching your faith are so important. And and I

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<v Speaker 1>would say, really we're focusing not just on kind of

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<v Speaker 1>containing the infection, We're focusing on not overwhelming the healthcare system. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Varkis, and I forgive, forgive me, I think I've

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<v Speaker 1>been mispronouncing your name, so my apologies, but Dr Archie's

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's what I was seeing a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>questions about over the weekend. Where are we getting to

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<v Speaker 1>a point because of shortage of supplies of this protective

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<v Speaker 1>gear for healthcare workers that UM, medical personnel, doctors and

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<v Speaker 1>others will have to make choices about who they can

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<v Speaker 1>treat or who they can provide equipment on, whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>based on age or based on how vulnerable somebody is.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, are we getting to that point? I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think we're quite there yet, but will we get there

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<v Speaker 1>in a week potentially? It's hard to know exactly what

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<v Speaker 1>the timeline could be. And I think all of the

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<v Speaker 1>efforts were trying to put into place currently um both

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<v Speaker 1>at the state and federal level, really trying to help

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<v Speaker 1>decrease the risk of getting there. Certainly, the healthcare system

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<v Speaker 1>and healthcare workers are already McCoy taxed in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>limitations on personal protective equipment and other types of equipment.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're really trying to help slow down the spread

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<v Speaker 1>and and how fast we may find ourselves in that

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<v Speaker 1>type of situation like we're seeing, you know, in Italy

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<v Speaker 1>and other places. And Dr Argy's what are we learning about,

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<v Speaker 1>especially as we think about the biggest cities in the

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<v Speaker 1>country and you are there in Chicago one of them.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we've seen these restrictive measures, the essential shelter

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<v Speaker 1>in place, even if we're not calling it that, in

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<v Speaker 1>all these different places in California, here in New York,

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<v Speaker 1>uh and also in Illinois, where you are. We're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>other states take similar measures. What are we seeing in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of the efficacy of that or when will we

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<v Speaker 1>know how effective that is? Yeah, so it's it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to know exactly how soon because we're seeing varying levels

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<v Speaker 1>they say of the whole shelter in place concept. But

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<v Speaker 1>certainly UM just urging people to social distance and to

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<v Speaker 1>shelter in place, I think we can truly slow down

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<v Speaker 1>the spread. UM. It may take still a week or

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<v Speaker 1>more to really understand how that kind of impacts the

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<v Speaker 1>next wave of cases and how much of an increase

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<v Speaker 1>or increase we're seeing in terms of these having these

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<v Speaker 1>measures in place and the impact in terms of the

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<v Speaker 1>case counts. I do wonder about underserved populations and whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not they're getting the necessary care and able to

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<v Speaker 1>get out there. What are you seeing on that front

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<v Speaker 1>or what are we doing to make sure that they

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<v Speaker 1>are taking care of along with everybody else. Yeah, certainly

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<v Speaker 1>we UM and Americas are concerned about low income, uninsured

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<v Speaker 1>and underinsured individuals and community. We have clinics, four clinics

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<v Speaker 1>here in Connecticut. I'm actually located in Connecticut where our

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<v Speaker 1>America's headquarters is in UM and so we have four

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<v Speaker 1>free clinics where we are serving low income, uninsured and

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<v Speaker 1>under insured individuals UM and really trying to maintain primary

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<v Speaker 1>care services as well. We have clinics in El Salvador

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<v Speaker 1>as well as the community of Mumbai. And what we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen in our previous experience with outbreaks is that while

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<v Speaker 1>there is a lot of attention and resources put behind

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<v Speaker 1>containment of UH the spread of infection, there's also a

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<v Speaker 1>need for continuation of services, especially primary care services. We

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<v Speaker 1>saw this in a BOLO where you know, people were

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<v Speaker 1>dying of their chronic disease such as hypertension or diabetes

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<v Speaker 1>because there weren't enough resources and access to services for

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<v Speaker 1>their chronic care conditions. And so UM as an organization,

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<v Speaker 1>we've really tried to, to the best of our ability,

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<v Speaker 1>keeping in mind the safety of our health care workers

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<v Speaker 1>on the front line, continue those primary care services in

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<v Speaker 1>addition to the screening and referrals that we're doing for

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<v Speaker 1>COVID ninet teams. All Right, we're gonna leave it there.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for your time. Dr Julie Vargis

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<v Speaker 1>is Chief Medical Officer for AmeriCares, joining us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Connecticut. Some good information there and a reminder

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<v Speaker 1>that ultimately, Carol and Ute, we did something to this

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<v Speaker 1>effect earlier the healthcare crisis. You know, we talk a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about the markets in the financial world, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is very very much a healthcare crisis and one that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of doctors are trying to deal with. Trick

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<v Speaker 1>here and trick here. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>down to d C now. Josh wynd Grove is their

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<v Speaker 1>White House correspondent for Bloomberg. Great story today on the terminal,

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<v Speaker 1>as we mentioned about where the president's head maybe on

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<v Speaker 1>this stay at home advice that we've so many of

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<v Speaker 1>us have been given. Josh, great to have you back

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol and myself. Tell us what the president is

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<v Speaker 1>thinking right now. UM, it's hard to say the mind

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<v Speaker 1>that there is some sort of way to have your

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<v Speaker 1>cake and eat it too, that you can signal two

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<v Speaker 1>Americans that you know, it's dawn again. We're getting through this. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You can start, you know, stepping back a bit from

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<v Speaker 1>the measures that we've all started taking in the last while. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>but health officials are going to push back on that

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<v Speaker 1>and say we are not out of the woods yet.

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<v Speaker 1>For instance, the caseloads are still rising. We have no

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<v Speaker 1>idea when the when they will plateau in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>new cases. The deaths, of course continue to rise. America

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<v Speaker 1>has a shortage of testing and of medical supplies to

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<v Speaker 1>treat it, everything from masks to hospital beds and ventilators,

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<v Speaker 1>and so there's a lot of uh, you know, clouds

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<v Speaker 1>on the horizon, and it would be it seems like

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<v Speaker 1>a weird time for him to be preparing to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of declare victory and start coming back towards the more

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<v Speaker 1>normal life. Yeah, safe to say that. I think most

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<v Speaker 1>people believe that. To josh Um that all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's kind of a thinking. I think crucial to this,

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<v Speaker 1>right is that health side of the story, in that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if you've had the virus, you know, don't

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<v Speaker 1>we need to have some testing to see if you

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<v Speaker 1>build up some immunity to it so that you can

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<v Speaker 1>go back. Because I think the fear is all so

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we were talking so much last week

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<v Speaker 1>about the second wave. As we start to go back,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's been some concerns about that happening in China, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and elsewhere. So are we thinking it all about that?

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<v Speaker 1>It's a good question. I mean not really, because we

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<v Speaker 1>don't really have the capacity to test people in that regard.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, like I like to think of

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<v Speaker 1>like I want to think of workspaces. Let's think of

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<v Speaker 1>like the NBA, right like if they wanted to start

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<v Speaker 1>playing basketball again, they would have to test every team

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<v Speaker 1>and the and the referees and coaches every game. And

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<v Speaker 1>they just don't. They just don't have that. And so

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<v Speaker 1>you start to scale that, and that's even what what

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<v Speaker 1>would that be? Thirty people? Maybe? You know, it was

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<v Speaker 1>so bad bare minimum to run a game in an

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<v Speaker 1>EFT the arena. Scale that to look a big company,

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<v Speaker 1>big employer, what do you do right? One person coming

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<v Speaker 1>back could potentially carry it when you know, you just you,

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<v Speaker 1>you have no idea. So I think Trump there is

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<v Speaker 1>a clear movement in the last twenty four hours among

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<v Speaker 1>Trump and the people he listens to to say that

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<v Speaker 1>the economy can't stand to be on the mat all

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<v Speaker 1>that longer. You've got to give some sort of signal,

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<v Speaker 1>even if it is only a signal that things will

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<v Speaker 1>start moving back to normal life at some point. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and the inflection point to do that is in one week.

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<v Speaker 1>That's when Trump's fifteen days tops to stop the spread

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<v Speaker 1>strategy expires next Monday or so. Um. But health officials say, look,

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<v Speaker 1>if we don't have a handle on the upbreak, reopening

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<v Speaker 1>things is only going to make it worse. Right. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's clear and and this has been not I

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<v Speaker 1>was gonna say it's been nuanced. It actually hasn't been

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<v Speaker 1>that nuance. You know when you see Dr Fauci and

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Burke's up there, you know, sort of gently correcting

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<v Speaker 1>the record sometimes at these briefings. And you know, it's interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>Joshua I read something this morning that essentially said, part

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<v Speaker 1>of this is because these briefings every day have become

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<v Speaker 1>I dare say political, to to a large extent, confrontational

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<v Speaker 1>with with the media. They are not necessarily just delivering

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<v Speaker 1>the latest and greatest when it comes to the medical outlook. Right. Um, yeah,

0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.360
<v Speaker 1>they're they're the length of like an eighties comedy. Every day.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're there forever um tonight, god knows how

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<v Speaker 1>long it will last. We'll see. Um. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>for media, the White House doesn't provide a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>information that briefing is the only way to ask basic

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<v Speaker 1>things like how many masks do we have? What is

0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.640
<v Speaker 1>the caseload? Do we have ventilators? Arguably we shouldn't be

0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:41.040
<v Speaker 1>wasting national airtime asking the president for the numbers themselves,

0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.640
<v Speaker 1>but you know, this is our only opportunity to So,

0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think Trump is out there every day.

0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:49.360
<v Speaker 1>He's he's trying to look like he's leading on that.

0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:53.800
<v Speaker 1>His his sort of orbit is touting elevated approval numbers

0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:56.200
<v Speaker 1>and is handling of this. But we are not out

0:12:56.240 --> 0:13:01.960
<v Speaker 1>of the woods yet. Absolutely. Yeah, no, that's for sure. Um, Josh,

0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate all your efforts and all your reporting, and

0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.960
<v Speaker 1>thanks for finding time for us. Josh wynd Grove joining

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 1>us from Washington, one of the most read and one

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:15.320
<v Speaker 1>of the most read guys. It's just true. Joe, No Sarah,

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 1>he joins us on the phone from Southampton. We're gonna

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 1>set that aside for a second, because then we would

0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:22.720
<v Speaker 1>just go down the rabbit hole of the shrink next door,

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.600
<v Speaker 1>and we'll save that for another day. Joe. Joe Webber

0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:30.640
<v Speaker 1>also with us. Uh, he is in Brooklyn. That's where

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 1>we're finding him these days. So no, Sarah, I want

0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>to start with you, Uh, this is a provocative look

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 1>to some extent about what could happen uh down the

0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:46.560
<v Speaker 1>line as it relates to vaccines and basically forcing people

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 1>are forcing an issue. I should say, tell us what

0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you found. Well, well, I just I went back and

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 1>looked at what happened, um during swine flu. That was

0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 1>that was my idea. Uh, you know, excuse me, what

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.440
<v Speaker 1>what sort of measures were there were state governments able

0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 1>to take, um to to kind of get people past that.

0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.880
<v Speaker 1>And one of the things that I discovered was that

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.000
<v Speaker 1>in the state of New York, the health the head

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:16.480
<v Speaker 1>of the health department had ordered UM all health care

0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:21.320
<v Speaker 1>workers to take the vaccine under the threat of being

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.040
<v Speaker 1>fired if they didn't do it by you know, like

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 1>they were given like a month and a half to

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:29.680
<v Speaker 1>do it. And what happened was, um, you know, they

0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 1>got sued by some uh by some nurses and by

0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:41.600
<v Speaker 1>UM a union, a workers union, and UM the judge

0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 1>ordered to stay. So in other words, that the judge said,

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:46.480
<v Speaker 1>you can't do this, and I'll you know, then I'll

0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 1>rule on the merriats later and and in the meantime,

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.920
<v Speaker 1>the vaccine turned out to be in such short supply

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 1>that the governor, Governor Patterson at the time, decided it

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.160
<v Speaker 1>was pointless to try and enforce this, and so they

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 1>just kind of gave up. So what it means is

0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:08.320
<v Speaker 1>that even when there is a vaccine, we really don't

0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:14.520
<v Speaker 1>know legally what right people and particularly health workers are

0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 1>going to have in dealing with this. And I can

0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 1>guarantee you that if somebody tries to enforce a vaccine

0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:25.520
<v Speaker 1>with the anti vax movement being what it is today, uh,

0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:27.840
<v Speaker 1>there will be an uproar and there will be a

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of litigates. Come on, come on, Well, that's why Joe,

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:37.520
<v Speaker 1>what was the name of the case, because it is

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 1>one that I think is going to be in the headlines. Um,

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 1>if and when there's a vaccine, you would have to

0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:50.840
<v Speaker 1>ask me that's Binian Binian versus danged. And what I

0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:55.120
<v Speaker 1>what I actually thought, what I thought was remarkable about

0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 1>this little bit of slicing on Joe's part, was that

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 1>we've actually been down this road before, right Like we've

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 1>been We've seen like the swine swine flu at the

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.800
<v Speaker 1>time that was a pandemic and there were a lot

0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:12.520
<v Speaker 1>of people who got sick. And here we were racing out.

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:16.400
<v Speaker 1>Um uh, you know, a vaccine. And one of the

0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 1>elements that the I think is important to keep in

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 1>mind here was that the healthcare workers said, we don't

0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.840
<v Speaker 1>want to be giddap in this case. And that was

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>actually one of the one of the things that the

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 1>judge decided when he decided on this day. Um So

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.040
<v Speaker 1>when you kind of when you when you think about this,

0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 1>like New York State was where this case was centered,

0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:40.280
<v Speaker 1>um and and it will be probably a state issue

0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 1>before it's anything else. Is that not? Right? Without without question,

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.520
<v Speaker 1>it will, especially given how lacks the federal government has

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.520
<v Speaker 1>been dealing with this pandemic, it will definitely be a

0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 1>state issue. You can definitely see Cuomo saying you have

0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:57.480
<v Speaker 1>to do this, and you can definitely see enormous pushbacks

0:16:57.480 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 1>from um and and and by the way, the same

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.560
<v Speaker 1>is happening here in terms of the vaccine itself. You know,

0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.760
<v Speaker 1>everybody's talking about we got a rush the vaccine out,

0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:06.919
<v Speaker 1>We got a rush the vaccine out. Right, you usually

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.639
<v Speaker 1>take a year and a half to two years, right, exactly. Well,

0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:12.879
<v Speaker 1>and I also think about the bigger worker issue, especially

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:15.120
<v Speaker 1>with some of the conversation. You know that we heard

0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 1>just from our Josh Wing Grove who covers the White

0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 1>House and Washington. You know about the President talking already

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.960
<v Speaker 1>about people workers getting back to work, and you do wonder,

0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, could we get to a point where, Okay,

0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:27.320
<v Speaker 1>if you want to go back to work, if you

0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:29.239
<v Speaker 1>get this vaccine, and if you don't take it, like,

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 1>it just opens up all these weird questions. Joe, right, right, absolutely,

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.320
<v Speaker 1>and that's true that you know there's another vaccine. Uh,

0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:41.080
<v Speaker 1>people who kind of hold, excuse me, another test. It's

0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.560
<v Speaker 1>an antibody test. It's supposed to be fairly closed. And

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:48.360
<v Speaker 1>the importance of the antibody test is that it can

0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 1>tell you if you're immune. So so you can definitely

0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 1>see a situation where the government says, you have to

0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:01.000
<v Speaker 1>take this antibody test because we have to know whether

0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.320
<v Speaker 1>you are immune. And if you're immune, you gotta go

0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:05.280
<v Speaker 1>back to work. Well, you gotta go. You know, you've

0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 1>got to be part of the economy again. So you know,

0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:10.199
<v Speaker 1>you could see the same set of issues. It's not

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.040
<v Speaker 1>quite the same as a vaccine, but you could definitely

0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:15.240
<v Speaker 1>see the same set of issues. They are well, and guys,

0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:17.600
<v Speaker 1>I do wonder, and Joe, I would love for you

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:19.800
<v Speaker 1>to weigh on this as well. I mean, we are

0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:23.760
<v Speaker 1>in this moment where it feels like in the name

0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:27.199
<v Speaker 1>of public health, public safety, our own and those of

0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.919
<v Speaker 1>our communities and whatnot. Maybe you know, we're starting to

0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:35.560
<v Speaker 1>think about some very basic you know, rights and what

0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.440
<v Speaker 1>we can and can't do in sort of a different way.

0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.760
<v Speaker 1>And you know, if you spend too long on Twitter,

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.600
<v Speaker 1>you can go down some rabbit holes about what the

0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:48.800
<v Speaker 1>government can and can't do here. Right, well, you know

0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 1>make sense. I think I think about like nine eleven, right,

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.240
<v Speaker 1>and you think about what a tales beIN um that

0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:57.960
<v Speaker 1>put our society for for you know, a decade plus

0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:01.280
<v Speaker 1>in terms of civil liberties, and didn't to some extent

0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.719
<v Speaker 1>like we might be terrunning a similar phase here which

0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:10.359
<v Speaker 1>will test our social fabric. And I wanted to go

0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:11.960
<v Speaker 1>ahead to come at it from a different from a

0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:15.440
<v Speaker 1>different angle. You know, when the polio virus came out,

0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:18.080
<v Speaker 1>I was a little kid, and I remember my mother

0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.679
<v Speaker 1>takes you to get a polio shot and that was

0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:24.000
<v Speaker 1>not that was not that was mandatory. Everybody in the

0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.680
<v Speaker 1>country had to take a polo shot. Nobody complained about

0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 1>it because everybody was so terrified, terrified about polio. And

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:32.919
<v Speaker 1>so what I think is that we could see an

0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 1>era when we go back to that where if this

0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:40.160
<v Speaker 1>virus is bad enough, you could see the court upholding

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:44.119
<v Speaker 1>a government saying you have to do this for the

0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:46.760
<v Speaker 1>greater good. And I feel like the greater good is

0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:49.280
<v Speaker 1>something that's kind of been forgotten the last couple of decades.

0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:54.439
<v Speaker 1>And you know, however you feel about mandatory vaccines working

0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:56.520
<v Speaker 1>on behalf of the greater good is something that society

0:19:56.560 --> 0:20:00.560
<v Speaker 1>really needs to recaptured. No, it's a eight point and

0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:04.679
<v Speaker 1>certainly it's something that we have been talking more and

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:08.159
<v Speaker 1>more about. I mean social distancing really only what you know,

0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:11.200
<v Speaker 1>if like only a couple of people are social distancing themselves,

0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:14.000
<v Speaker 1>then it really it doesn't work so well, all right,

0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:16.520
<v Speaker 1>Jonah Sarah always thought provocative. Thank you so much. Johning

0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:19.560
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Southampton, New York. Joe Webber

0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:23.560
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from Brooklyn. This is Bloomberg

0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:28.480
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Now.

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.720
<v Speaker 1>We often talk about this with our Andy Brown, about

0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:34.560
<v Speaker 1>globalization and the factors that have been shipping away at it.

0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:37.800
<v Speaker 1>One factor to consider is the virus and how it

0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:41.480
<v Speaker 1>might ultimately kill globalization. Andy Brown is Bloomberg New Economy

0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.000
<v Speaker 1>editorial director. He's on the phone in New Hampshire. Andy,

0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:46.920
<v Speaker 1>good to have you back with us. First of all,

0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:51.960
<v Speaker 1>you guys all doing okay, we're doing great up here

0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:55.399
<v Speaker 1>in uh in New Hampshire. Actually the terrific part of

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:59.200
<v Speaker 1>the US to be in right now. Yeah, we'll tell

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:01.199
<v Speaker 1>us a little bit about because as we watch the

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:05.360
<v Speaker 1>rest of the world. Um, you know, it's really certainly

0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 1>tough going. You have talked to us in the past

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:11.320
<v Speaker 1>about the things that are really chipping away at globalization,

0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:15.360
<v Speaker 1>this virus. We have seen a lot of fighting. Certainly

0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.840
<v Speaker 1>it feels like our tensions between the US and China

0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:21.719
<v Speaker 1>as a result of you know, kind of finger pointing

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.240
<v Speaker 1>at who cost h Um talked to us though about

0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:29.000
<v Speaker 1>the broader implications potentially for globalization. Yeah. So so you know,

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:33.399
<v Speaker 1>the way I look at it is, you know, ultimately globalization,

0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:40.240
<v Speaker 1>economic globalization depends on trust that you know, essentially, you've

0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:44.800
<v Speaker 1>got these incredibly long and complex supply chains, many of

0:21:44.840 --> 0:21:49.760
<v Speaker 1>them running through China, and companies and countries have got

0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:54.919
<v Speaker 1>to believe in the integrity of those chains. Um, and

0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:58.679
<v Speaker 1>they haven't really been tested in the last several decades

0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:01.719
<v Speaker 1>that much. I mean, you had an episodes, for instance,

0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:04.879
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and eleven, you had floods in Thailand,

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:08.440
<v Speaker 1>you had an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and parts

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:12.520
<v Speaker 1>of the electronic supply chain came down. And now you

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:18.639
<v Speaker 1>have massive global failures of supply chains. And you know,

0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:23.879
<v Speaker 1>not just that, you have you know this uh, simultaneous

0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:30.000
<v Speaker 1>erosion of trust between the big actors in the globalization dramas.

0:22:30.040 --> 0:22:35.000
<v Speaker 1>So you know, uh, most notably uh and most disastrously

0:22:35.160 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 1>right now between the US and China. And you know, uh,

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing that in medicines, in pharmaceuticals, where it's become

0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:49.200
<v Speaker 1>clear that the US economy is highly dependent and many

0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:55.119
<v Speaker 1>would argue dangerously dependent on China. And indeed, we've had

0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 1>insinuations from the Chinese media that you know, what would

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:06.400
<v Speaker 1>happen if China denied active pharmaceutical ingredients to the US industry,

0:23:06.520 --> 0:23:10.919
<v Speaker 1>And this has rarely raised red flags uh here in

0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:13.840
<v Speaker 1>the US, you know, is the US has the US

0:23:13.960 --> 0:23:17.280
<v Speaker 1>become too reliant on China? But you're also seeing it

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:21.679
<v Speaker 1>in in Europe with borders going up with with you know,

0:23:22.040 --> 0:23:27.880
<v Speaker 1>Germany France accusing each other of holding face masks, Italy

0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 1>begging in vain for help for emergency equipment, you know,

0:23:32.920 --> 0:23:35.360
<v Speaker 1>from the neighbors, and in the end having to look

0:23:35.400 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 1>to China for help. And China is seeing all this,

0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 1>by the way, and really trying to take advantage of

0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:45.640
<v Speaker 1>it well. And and obviously the political rhetoric is really

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:48.800
<v Speaker 1>escalating to uh andy, you know it that I was

0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:51.639
<v Speaker 1>listening to something this morning that was talking about even

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:55.480
<v Speaker 1>the way that the President United States is framing this,

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:59.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, continuing to refer to it as the Chinese virus,

0:23:59.359 --> 0:24:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and this relationship that's always been complicated, to say the

0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:07.600
<v Speaker 1>least between him and President She getting more complicated in

0:24:07.640 --> 0:24:10.919
<v Speaker 1>a lot of ways. Now, how does that contribute to

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:16.200
<v Speaker 1>the overall ethos here? Yeah? So you know what's what's

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:19.840
<v Speaker 1>so tragic we talked about this last week is right now,

0:24:19.960 --> 0:24:24.800
<v Speaker 1>the US and China ought to be collaborating on everything.

0:24:24.840 --> 0:24:27.320
<v Speaker 1>On the search for a vaccine, They ought to be

0:24:27.359 --> 0:24:33.480
<v Speaker 1>working together on the manufacture of face masks, of ventilators,

0:24:33.520 --> 0:24:37.440
<v Speaker 1>of gowns, on on, on, and distribution of all of this.

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:41.000
<v Speaker 1>This this emergency gear which hospitals right now in the

0:24:41.080 --> 0:24:45.440
<v Speaker 1>US so desperately need and in fact, this coronavirus has

0:24:45.520 --> 0:24:50.320
<v Speaker 1>just opened up a whole new battleground battle front between

0:24:50.359 --> 0:24:53.480
<v Speaker 1>them and Steve Bannon was quoted in New York Times

0:24:53.480 --> 0:24:56.040
<v Speaker 1>that day saying, you know, we are now in an

0:24:56.119 --> 0:25:00.960
<v Speaker 1>information hot war, uh, in addition to economic hot war,

0:25:01.080 --> 0:25:05.080
<v Speaker 1>by which he meant that, you know, the narrative around

0:25:06.600 --> 0:25:09.840
<v Speaker 1>the coronavirus, where did it, where did it begin? You

0:25:09.880 --> 0:25:14.239
<v Speaker 1>know who's to blame? Um has become now you know,

0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:19.120
<v Speaker 1>a deeply contested area between these two countries, and they're

0:25:19.200 --> 0:25:23.040
<v Speaker 1>using it in order to gain geopolitical influence and leverage.

0:25:23.680 --> 0:25:25.760
<v Speaker 1>And he asked you to be quick. Just got about

0:25:25.760 --> 0:25:27.760
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds. But as the horse left the barn, I mean,

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:32.280
<v Speaker 1>could someone else fix the situation? Maybe somebody else in

0:25:32.320 --> 0:25:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the next administration, or is this how it's going to

0:25:34.960 --> 0:25:37.000
<v Speaker 1>be between the US and China going forward? Just quickly

0:25:37.040 --> 0:25:42.840
<v Speaker 1>if you could. Uh? Well, I mean, unfortunately U S

0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:46.479
<v Speaker 1>China relations in this country in the United States are

0:25:46.560 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 1>very much a bipartisan issue. Uh. That It's not at

0:25:51.160 --> 0:25:56.439
<v Speaker 1>all clear that a democratic, democratic president would um, you know,

0:25:56.680 --> 0:26:00.040
<v Speaker 1>would would alter course. I don't, however, think that a

0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:03.000
<v Speaker 1>democratic president, or indeed have any other president would go

0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 1>to the length that Donald Trump does right now in

0:26:06.160 --> 0:26:11.720
<v Speaker 1>deliberately fanning Miss Trump and deliberately infuriating China by calling

0:26:11.760 --> 0:26:15.359
<v Speaker 1>at the Chinese virus and Pompeo calling at the Wuhan virus,

0:26:15.600 --> 0:26:19.200
<v Speaker 1>by the way, least with terrible backlash against Asian Americans

0:26:19.200 --> 0:26:22.960
<v Speaker 1>in the United All right, Andy Brown, always good to

0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:25.760
<v Speaker 1>catch up with you. Thank you so much, Editorial director

0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:32.960
<v Speaker 1>of the New Economy here at Bloomberg mac A Journal.

0:26:34.240 --> 0:26:39.280
<v Speaker 1>But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please,

0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the righting drivel. I want to try it.

0:26:45.440 --> 0:26:58.200
<v Speaker 1>Just drive, baby, it's the questions trying. This is the

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:04.359
<v Speaker 1>drive to the clobes. Communings well, un Radio, it is

0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:06.720
<v Speaker 1>time for the drive to the close. Charlie, Bobrinskoy is

0:27:06.760 --> 0:27:09.199
<v Speaker 1>back with us. Why, Chairman, Vice chairman and head of

0:27:09.240 --> 0:27:12.840
<v Speaker 1>investment group at Erroal Investments. I've got roughly thirteen point

0:27:12.840 --> 0:27:16.679
<v Speaker 1>two billion in assets under management joining us on the

0:27:16.720 --> 0:27:19.760
<v Speaker 1>phone in Chicago. Charlie. Really nice to have you with us.

0:27:19.800 --> 0:27:21.959
<v Speaker 1>Tell us, um, first of all, I hope you, your family,

0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:26.520
<v Speaker 1>your team, everybody's doing okay, Yes they are. I'm spending

0:27:26.520 --> 0:27:31.119
<v Speaker 1>a lot of time with my family. How's that going now?

0:27:31.160 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm just kidding, Um, what is it like in Chicago, Charlie,

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:36.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, I mean that we're so focused, you know,

0:27:36.800 --> 0:27:38.720
<v Speaker 1>being here in New York into what it's like here.

0:27:38.720 --> 0:27:41.399
<v Speaker 1>But you know, your governor JB. Pritzkers has made some

0:27:41.440 --> 0:27:43.760
<v Speaker 1>similar steps to to ours in terms of, you know,

0:27:43.840 --> 0:27:48.159
<v Speaker 1>really locking things down. It's an interesting question. I think, Um,

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:51.760
<v Speaker 1>the coasts have been hit much harder in terms of

0:27:51.800 --> 0:27:56.960
<v Speaker 1>actual cases, impact on hospitals. Obviously, New York, Washington State,

0:27:56.960 --> 0:28:01.360
<v Speaker 1>in California account for the majority of the cases and deaths,

0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:05.159
<v Speaker 1>and we are seeing some activity in the Midwest. Uh,

0:28:05.640 --> 0:28:08.800
<v Speaker 1>this is more concentrated in cities, but in general very

0:28:08.840 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 1>little impact. So this is one of those situations where

0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:14.360
<v Speaker 1>obviously a lot of farmers, a lot of rural areas

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:16.880
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of the country that are frankly not

0:28:17.119 --> 0:28:20.800
<v Speaker 1>affected on a daily basis. So, Charlie, when you when

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.000
<v Speaker 1>you hear what's coming out of Washington, what you've seen

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:25.920
<v Speaker 1>the FED do at this point, um, and what you're

0:28:25.920 --> 0:28:28.800
<v Speaker 1>seeing obviously in Chicago in terms of the impact and

0:28:29.080 --> 0:28:32.439
<v Speaker 1>just the impact on global markets overall. I mean, do

0:28:32.480 --> 0:28:34.760
<v Speaker 1>you agree with the steps that have been taken so far,

0:28:34.840 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 1>and what do you think Congress needs to do. You know,

0:28:38.240 --> 0:28:40.960
<v Speaker 1>obviously there are people that are more knowledgeable than I am.

0:28:41.080 --> 0:28:44.280
<v Speaker 1>But clearly Governor Cuomo said something today which I think

0:28:44.320 --> 0:28:46.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of us agree with, in which the Washington

0:28:46.720 --> 0:28:49.239
<v Speaker 1>the Wall Street Journal editorial page has said, which is

0:28:49.280 --> 0:28:52.680
<v Speaker 1>that this is having a big effect on the economy

0:28:52.920 --> 0:28:56.479
<v Speaker 1>and it is not good for the health care of

0:28:56.920 --> 0:29:00.200
<v Speaker 1>the health of our citizens to have an implodeddc to me.

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:03.240
<v Speaker 1>And so there are going to be times in the future,

0:29:03.400 --> 0:29:06.200
<v Speaker 1>not tomorrow, but when we have to get back to work,

0:29:06.280 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 1>and that's going to be done in a prudent way.

0:29:08.600 --> 0:29:10.960
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be done, um, when it is not

0:29:11.000 --> 0:29:13.800
<v Speaker 1>going to endanger our citizens, but it is going to

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:16.760
<v Speaker 1>need to happen because we cannot have all of us

0:29:16.800 --> 0:29:21.680
<v Speaker 1>staying home and um, imploded economy is not good for anybody.

0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:25.719
<v Speaker 1>And so Charlie, put on your investment hat here as

0:29:25.800 --> 0:29:29.040
<v Speaker 1>you talk to the team, Uh, what what are you

0:29:29.040 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 1>guys thinking about in terms of where where the market

0:29:32.920 --> 0:29:36.800
<v Speaker 1>is trading at this point and how you approach this

0:29:37.520 --> 0:29:40.720
<v Speaker 1>as savvy investors. So what we do is try not

0:29:40.800 --> 0:29:42.600
<v Speaker 1>to look at the market as a whole, but look

0:29:42.640 --> 0:29:46.280
<v Speaker 1>at individual companies and the basic analysis is try to

0:29:46.320 --> 0:29:48.440
<v Speaker 1>find names that are going to have a very tough

0:29:48.480 --> 0:29:51.040
<v Speaker 1>time on the short term, because the market always looks

0:29:51.040 --> 0:29:53.080
<v Speaker 1>at the short term, but are going to be fine

0:29:53.120 --> 0:29:57.440
<v Speaker 1>in the long term. And one key um differentiator in

0:29:57.520 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 1>that is good balance sheets. If I had to say

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:03.480
<v Speaker 1>one thing that the stock market doesn't do particularly well,

0:30:03.600 --> 0:30:07.120
<v Speaker 1>it's analyzed the credit of companies. And so we are

0:30:07.120 --> 0:30:10.520
<v Speaker 1>real pride ourselves on doing good credit work, investing in

0:30:10.560 --> 0:30:12.800
<v Speaker 1>companies that are sure going to have a tough quarter

0:30:13.160 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 1>but are going to be fine in the long run.

0:30:15.960 --> 0:30:18.320
<v Speaker 1>So so where does that lead you to? I mean,

0:30:18.800 --> 0:30:22.080
<v Speaker 1>we always talk to you about Tiffany and as we know, um,

0:30:22.520 --> 0:30:24.160
<v Speaker 1>you know l v m H is in the process

0:30:24.200 --> 0:30:26.280
<v Speaker 1>of of taking it over. You you know, send some

0:30:26.400 --> 0:30:28.680
<v Speaker 1>notes over and you said that if LVMH wanted to

0:30:28.680 --> 0:30:31.040
<v Speaker 1>get out of the deal, they could by claiming a

0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:35.040
<v Speaker 1>material adverse change. Do you think that's likely? Yeah, So

0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:38.080
<v Speaker 1>to be very careful, I'm not saying that they would

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:40.479
<v Speaker 1>win in the end and if they claimed the material

0:30:40.480 --> 0:30:43.400
<v Speaker 1>adverse change, but they clearly could if they wanted to

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:46.000
<v Speaker 1>get out of the deal. We saw in two thousand

0:30:46.040 --> 0:30:49.120
<v Speaker 1>and eight, there were a lot of acquisitions that got

0:30:49.120 --> 0:30:53.680
<v Speaker 1>canceled because of either financing outs or material adverse change outs.

0:30:54.080 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>And so at this point, I think Tiffany would be

0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>able to make the argument that there hasn't been a downturn.

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:03.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm a material downturn in their actual results. But I again,

0:31:03.880 --> 0:31:08.120
<v Speaker 1>if if the leadership of m VH wanted to uh

0:31:08.280 --> 0:31:10.360
<v Speaker 1>St Louis Bitton wanted to get out of this deal,

0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:13.480
<v Speaker 1>I think they'd have a legitimate argument. So far, it

0:31:13.560 --> 0:31:16.040
<v Speaker 1>doesn't look like they want to get out of this um.

0:31:16.080 --> 0:31:18.280
<v Speaker 1>But obviously that's why the stock is trading at a

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:21.880
<v Speaker 1>significant discount to the deal price. And so take us

0:31:21.960 --> 0:31:24.960
<v Speaker 1>inside a company or inside your analysis of a company

0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:28.080
<v Speaker 1>like Tiffany in this particular case. You know, a few

0:31:28.080 --> 0:31:29.920
<v Speaker 1>months ago we were talking about it's like, oh, you know,

0:31:29.960 --> 0:31:32.120
<v Speaker 1>maybe they're going to be impacted or they are impacted

0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:34.720
<v Speaker 1>by Hong Kong protests at the luxury market there and

0:31:34.720 --> 0:31:36.880
<v Speaker 1>maybe the luxury market in China. This is now a

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:40.560
<v Speaker 1>global pandemic. How do you look at a luxury name

0:31:40.640 --> 0:31:43.000
<v Speaker 1>like that and how does that extend into some of

0:31:43.040 --> 0:31:46.000
<v Speaker 1>your other analysis. Yeah, so Tiffany is a special case

0:31:46.040 --> 0:31:48.560
<v Speaker 1>because there's a takeover, but if it was a standalone

0:31:48.600 --> 0:31:51.400
<v Speaker 1>private that would be the exact kind of company that

0:31:51.440 --> 0:31:53.960
<v Speaker 1>we would on. There's no doubt that they're going to

0:31:54.040 --> 0:31:57.720
<v Speaker 1>have a short term down turn in in sales. People

0:31:57.720 --> 0:32:00.400
<v Speaker 1>are not going to be making big luxury purchases. But

0:32:00.840 --> 0:32:03.240
<v Speaker 1>in the long run, this is not going to affect

0:32:03.680 --> 0:32:06.960
<v Speaker 1>people's desire to own jewelry. And it had a great

0:32:06.960 --> 0:32:09.600
<v Speaker 1>balance sheet, it had a great brand. All of those

0:32:09.640 --> 0:32:12.840
<v Speaker 1>things are gonna be fine. Um, whenever we get to

0:32:12.880 --> 0:32:14.880
<v Speaker 1>the other side of this, and the difference between this

0:32:15.000 --> 0:32:17.640
<v Speaker 1>downturn and the two thousand and eight downturn. In two

0:32:17.680 --> 0:32:20.160
<v Speaker 1>thousand and eight, we really had to worry about whether

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:23.640
<v Speaker 1>the whole banking system was going to survive this time,

0:32:23.760 --> 0:32:26.520
<v Speaker 1>I think we can all see the other side of this.

0:32:26.960 --> 0:32:28.920
<v Speaker 1>It's just a question of whether the other side is

0:32:29.040 --> 0:32:32.480
<v Speaker 1>three months away, six months away, or a year away.

0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:35.440
<v Speaker 1>Did you think we are at or near the peak

0:32:35.520 --> 0:32:39.400
<v Speaker 1>of bad news? So it's a great question. So when

0:32:39.400 --> 0:32:41.640
<v Speaker 1>we spend a lot of time thinking about, because it

0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:45.040
<v Speaker 1>really is the question when the bad news right now,

0:32:45.080 --> 0:32:47.400
<v Speaker 1>the bad news is coming faster and faster and faster,

0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:51.400
<v Speaker 1>and the number of deaths is accelerating, but that's gonna

0:32:51.440 --> 0:32:53.880
<v Speaker 1>turn in a relatively short period of time, and we

0:32:53.960 --> 0:32:57.040
<v Speaker 1>think we will reach the pace of bad news is

0:32:57.080 --> 0:33:01.280
<v Speaker 1>probably right now the worst. We're gonna actually reach a

0:33:01.320 --> 0:33:03.760
<v Speaker 1>peak of bad news, which is sort of the first

0:33:03.800 --> 0:33:07.840
<v Speaker 1>derivative um around. We think within less than a month.

0:33:08.400 --> 0:33:10.760
<v Speaker 1>And so once from now, the bad news is not

0:33:10.760 --> 0:33:13.000
<v Speaker 1>going to stop. People are still gonna be passing away,

0:33:13.080 --> 0:33:15.760
<v Speaker 1>but we will the pace of bad news will be better,

0:33:16.280 --> 0:33:18.320
<v Speaker 1>and people will be more convinced that we can see

0:33:18.320 --> 0:33:20.960
<v Speaker 1>the other side. And so we think we could start

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:23.960
<v Speaker 1>to get a rallying confidence in inside of a month.

0:33:25.040 --> 0:33:27.760
<v Speaker 1>And in the meantime, can I just say, I'm just

0:33:27.800 --> 0:33:30.240
<v Speaker 1>gotta sitting there with the month, Charlie, I saw it.

0:33:31.160 --> 0:33:33.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm the only person, Charlie, by the way, in our

0:33:33.840 --> 0:33:36.280
<v Speaker 1>in our current setup, that can see Carol's face because

0:33:36.280 --> 0:33:39.760
<v Speaker 1>we're connected by video conference. And I saw it fall

0:33:39.800 --> 0:33:42.560
<v Speaker 1>when you said inside a month, which you know, I

0:33:42.600 --> 0:33:45.120
<v Speaker 1>think is is hard for people to sort of get

0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:48.600
<v Speaker 1>their heads around to you. Well, frankly, there are some

0:33:48.640 --> 0:33:50.720
<v Speaker 1>people thinking it's gonna be a lot more than a month.

0:33:51.720 --> 0:33:56.120
<v Speaker 1>So so I think I don't want to to be

0:33:56.200 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 1>Palianish here. I don't want to tell you everything is

0:33:58.560 --> 0:34:01.800
<v Speaker 1>going to be fine next week. I think we're gonna

0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Governor Pomo has seen the numbers and he's saying that

0:34:05.120 --> 0:34:08.279
<v Speaker 1>the hospital's situation is going to get worse. Um Now,

0:34:08.360 --> 0:34:10.360
<v Speaker 1>I will say this Carroul, to try to brighten your

0:34:10.440 --> 0:34:12.279
<v Speaker 1>day a little bit. I think there's a chance that

0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:15.000
<v Speaker 1>businesses are going to start to open up, maybe in

0:34:15.040 --> 0:34:18.080
<v Speaker 1>eleven or twelve days. Um So it could be it

0:34:18.120 --> 0:34:20.440
<v Speaker 1>could be less than four weeks, but it's not going

0:34:20.520 --> 0:34:23.760
<v Speaker 1>to be this week. Yeah, all right, Well, we always

0:34:23.760 --> 0:34:27.520
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate your inside so thoughtful. Charlie Brinskoye is the

0:34:27.560 --> 0:34:30.200
<v Speaker 1>vice chairman, head of the investment group at Aerial Investments,

0:34:30.200 --> 0:34:33.000
<v Speaker 1>looking after about thirteen point two billion dollars. You're going

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:35.880
<v Speaker 1>just on the phone from Chicago. Thanks for listening to

0:34:35.880 --> 0:34:39.719
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:34:39.800 --> 0:34:41.920
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our

0:34:42.000 --> 0:34:44.880
<v Speaker 1>radio show every weekday at two pm Eastern only on

0:34:44.920 --> 0:34:45.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio