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Speaker 1: Let's get now to bretma Gonnagirl Chaman and CEO at

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Speaker 1: Capitol Link joining us from New York. So inflation a

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Speaker 1: lot stickier than markets thought. President Biden saying the stock

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Speaker 1: market doesn't reflect the state of the economy, but how

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Speaker 1: much ugly can things get? Yeah, Look, I'm not obviously

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Speaker 1: the market reacted really poorly today in the attic down

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Speaker 1: over five. Um, I'm not as fast as the market

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Speaker 1: is right now. I do think that we uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: we've seen the worst of things, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: that this this is going to be an ongoing thing.

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Speaker 1: Certainly next month, I think we get some restpite and

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Speaker 1: I think we we'll see some some clearer pastures in

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Speaker 1: the in the future. Um, I'm I think the market

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Speaker 1: overreacted today. To be honest. What does it mean for

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Speaker 1: the f o MC next week? Do we see the

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Speaker 1: chance of a one hundred basis point fan Hunk? Look,

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Speaker 1: I think that the f o m C has you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of talked, you know, they've been very hawkish, they've

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Speaker 1: been talking tough. I think if they go the next

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Speaker 1: you know mile on that, which would be to go

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Speaker 1: from seventy to a hundred, I think the market really panics.

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Speaker 1: To be honest, I think people are saying, let's just

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Speaker 1: get it over with. I don't think that's the way

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Speaker 1: the market is going to take it. I think the

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Speaker 1: market will be very weary of anything other than seventy

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Speaker 1: five you know, are higher, um, And I think that

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Speaker 1: the markets prepared for that. They're not prepared for some curveball,

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Speaker 1: which would be a hundred basis points, and I think

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Speaker 1: it would send the market spiraling lower. Do we have

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Speaker 1: the chance still that there is a FED pivot on

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Speaker 1: the cards when you're looking at these high inflation print Look,

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Speaker 1: I look, I've said this to you for years, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, on TV and on radio. I think the

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Speaker 1: biggest fear I've always had the fact gets ahead of

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Speaker 1: itself and you know, they start to play with an

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Speaker 1: underlying economy. It doesn't exist. I don't think the underlying

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Speaker 1: economy can can can support these rate hikes. Um. You

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Speaker 1: know I I've made the point many times over the

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Speaker 1: past six months. It's we're an unchartable or with the

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Speaker 1: FED being so hawkish and raising so quickly and the

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Speaker 1: PBOC doing the exact opposite. I mean, how long do

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Speaker 1: we exist in a time period where you know these

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Speaker 1: two are opposite ends of the spectrum. I do think

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Speaker 1: the Chinese economy is should be a tell tale where

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Speaker 1: the U. S economy is either today or heading. Um.

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Speaker 1: And I just would wish that they would back off

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Speaker 1: a little bit, to be honest. Okay, you've said in

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Speaker 1: the nose you've given to us. Your bit is that

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Speaker 1: the p BOC easing for a reason that will soon

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Speaker 1: be clear to the fit What is that reason and

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Speaker 1: when does that become more clear? The reason is is

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Speaker 1: that you know, look, inflation right now is supply side. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, I dare to use the word transitory, I

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Speaker 1: don't use it, and probably the older definition of it

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Speaker 1: it's a little more long dated. Um, someone could argue

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Speaker 1: that that's not transitory. But look, I don't think these

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Speaker 1: prices stay for for for much longer. I think we've

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Speaker 1: seen the worst of it. I think the supply side

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Speaker 1: impact is not is obviously, you know, obviously the opposite

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Speaker 1: of demand impacts. So we don't have a demand underlying

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Speaker 1: demand economy that's pushing prices higher. We have constraints due

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Speaker 1: to COVID to supply, to supply channels and what have you.

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Speaker 1: And I think they've run their course. So I think

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Speaker 1: what China is showing is China is actually responding to

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Speaker 1: their economy, whereas the FED is responding to headlines. And

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Speaker 1: I think that that's where they're wrong. If we're looking

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Speaker 1: at the president, she's a trip abroad the first time

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Speaker 1: in a thousand days. We can see that as a

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Speaker 1: sign that perhaps we might see a pivot away from

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Speaker 1: dynamic zero. Are you expecting that after the Party Congress

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Speaker 1: and are you still a trying to bull. Look, I'm

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Speaker 1: a long term China bull. I have been um, you know,

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Speaker 1: I've I've hit the pause button recently on the equity

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Speaker 1: market just because of the uncertainty of COVID and the

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Speaker 1: crackdown on tech, which I think, you know, you need

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Speaker 1: to see something substantial and you need to see a

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Speaker 1: large shift away from current strategies in order to feel

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Speaker 1: comfortable in those spaces. But I don't think. Well, what

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Speaker 1: worries me the most here is that the p BOC,

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Speaker 1: as many levers that they have, they're not using. If

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Speaker 1: we thought that there was going to be some clean

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Speaker 1: break after the Party Congress on the sixteenth, I think

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Speaker 1: that you would be seeing different activity out of the

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Speaker 1: market and outther p BOC, which leads me to believe

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Speaker 1: it's going to be status QO after that UM, which

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Speaker 1: is a little bit disappointing because I think the market's

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Speaker 1: looking for something emphatic. I think she could put some

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Speaker 1: exclamation point on his third term. UM. However, you know,

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Speaker 1: the big question comes back to is what sort of

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Speaker 1: you know, what got him to the third to the

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Speaker 1: third term? Uh and and and you know have their

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Speaker 1: big compromises, and maybe that's why they're not you know,

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Speaker 1: bringing a loud bell mid October, and we're just gonna

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Speaker 1: have to see things play out and go into the

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Speaker 1: new year with COVID policy at zero, where they are

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Speaker 1: ringing a loud bell is in this efforts to kind

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Speaker 1: of stem the depreciation in the one, and we'd be

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Speaker 1: probably looking at a fift day of a stronger fix today.

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Speaker 1: But this is all about the strength and the dollar

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Speaker 1: in the weakness that we're seeing across the les of

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Speaker 1: the one, the yen as well. How much does that

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Speaker 1: kind of complicate things or or does it pose somewhat

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Speaker 1: of an opportunity. I mean, particularly when you look at

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Speaker 1: Japanese equities. Yeah, look, I think the Japanese let's stick

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Speaker 1: with trying to just for a second. You know, we

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Speaker 1: all remember the day when maybe the dollar yen cross seven,

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Speaker 1: or maybe it didn't remember that long, you know, the

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Speaker 1: long debate that went on when the line was drawn

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Speaker 1: in the sand. I think we're not at that point now,

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Speaker 1: so I think that the currency is a little more

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Speaker 1: free floating than at that point in time. So I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't necessarily be too concerned about the Chinese currency. You know,

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Speaker 1: the yen is um. You know, is a story of

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Speaker 1: It's a five year story. I mean this, this is um.

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Speaker 1: In my opinion, I've always been weary of both the

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Speaker 1: yen and the Japanese market for the sole purpose, full

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Speaker 1: reason that they don't control their own destiny. Um. And

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Speaker 1: it's a really hard situation to be attracted to a

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Speaker 1: market or a currency UM that doesn't really control itself.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is it's the you know,

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Speaker 1: the global shift has happened. The headlines and inflection points

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Speaker 1: and the catalysts are just not in Japan right now.

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Speaker 1: So you know, I did you know it's always gone

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Speaker 1: that the dollar gets strong when you gets weak, that

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Speaker 1: the knick rises, But I just don't really know if

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Speaker 1: that's a high conviction trade, um, you know, versus the

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Speaker 1: backdrop of of China US where you know clearly they

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Speaker 1: do control their own destiny and you can have a

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Speaker 1: lot more empirical data that drives you with comfort behind

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Speaker 1: that sort of a trade. So you know, I I do,

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Speaker 1: I do think that. I don't think the ender versus course,

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Speaker 1: I do think it charges to one fifty. I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily think that's the end of the world, but it's

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Speaker 1: not our focal point right now. Let's talk about that

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Speaker 1: tech space because of course they're going to be under

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Speaker 1: pressure today on the on the expectation of more jumbo hikes.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at the broader picture, I mean

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Speaker 1: you're saying semi conductors, the past president, in future and

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Speaker 1: yesterday a big rise in a lot of those players,

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Speaker 1: on strong demand for pre orders for Apple. So just

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Speaker 1: tell us why you're still at this space. Yeah. Look,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the the whole China U S controversy comes

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Speaker 1: comes down to one mitigating factor. You know, are we

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Speaker 1: a semiconductor chip technology, software and machinery going to be

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Speaker 1: shared across you know the spectrum or is it not

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Speaker 1: going to be right? Now, there's a very defensive nature

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Speaker 1: out of the US there, so obviously anything that looks

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Speaker 1: like s M I C to me in China has

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Speaker 1: you know, infinite upside when they get it right. It's

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Speaker 1: not right as opposed to right now. I don't think

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Speaker 1: yields are where they want them to be. I don't

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Speaker 1: think that the current geometries where the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world is. But that gives you the upside, so I

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Speaker 1: think also, I mean, why would you not want to

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Speaker 1: own Intel. I don't know why people want to pay

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Speaker 1: high multiples on growth software stocks when you know the

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Speaker 1: story is about chips, So you know, I think longer

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Speaker 1: term you're safe. There are they gonna you know, are

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Speaker 1: they gonna run away tomorrow? No? But I think the

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Speaker 1: downside is limited, unfortunate, We're gonna have to let you

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Speaker 1: run away, but always a pleasure. Thank you, Britt Britam'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go Chiman and CEO at Capital Link on the

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Speaker 1: line from New York for us here on bloom deybread

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Speaker 1: k ship